Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterflys Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?

written by Edward Lorenz theorizes the effect of one butterfly to many butterflies flapping their wings and whether or not such an occurrence could in fact cause a tornado. The writer utilizes the above analogy to discuss the probability of accurate versus inaccurate weather forecasts based on computer simulations of actual and predicted weather patterns. The question of whether the atmospheres instability may play a significant role in weather forecasting is discussed but the author concludes that the question is unanswerable due to observation failures or errors in weather patterns including positioning of clouds, weekly average temperatures and total rainfall. The issue of being unable to observe the atmospheres behavior to change is another important issue the author discusses since the atmosphere is not controlled and any reactions to disturbances cannot be accurately recorded. Therefore, on any given day, weather forecasts are not exact forecasts but the best forecasts that can be made given the mysterious structures of weather patterns. The butterfly scenario introduced by the author raises the question of the chaos theory and whether or not the butterfly effect could be a reality in relation to the events that are the result of a chain reaction. What we do here on earth does in fact affect atmospheric changes and what results are unpredictable weather forecasts.

From: The Rediscovery of Time: Science in a World of Limited Predicatability pp. 360-362