Subject. Economics Theory (Macro) Topic.

What is the Position of Province Sindh, after

flood 2011, and the people who are affected by it?

Submitted To. Sir,Ali Asghar Ghayour Submitted By. Wajahat Ali Ghulam Roll No. Class. Session. 01 BBA 2nd (Morning) 2010-14

Faculty of Administrative Sciences Kotli (A.K) University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir
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Department of Business Administration.

This assignment entrusted by my, respectable teacher, comprises of multiple question to which were required to give appropriate

answers. And we have tried our best to make this piece of paper more comprehensive and comprehendible. In this assignment I have discussed all the points of causes of flood in province Sindh. And the people affected by all of this process. These all the factors provide the base to that what are the causes of flood in Sindh.
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Primarily, bow my head before Almighty Allah who given me wisdom and an opportunity to undertake this exploring work. Also to my parents whose prayers always do a miracle for me. Grateful acknowledgement is made to all those who conceptualized, helped, trained and guided and made me able to compile this assignment.
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Infect I was not able to complete this task, there are lot of guidelines that are given by my Honorable Teacher as well as my Parents, their devotion to me make me able to complete this task. I am also thankful to my teacher for her guidance and cooperation

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Sr. Topic No 01 2011, Sindh Floods Facts & Figures 02 A Background of Flood, Causes 02 Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department 04 Heaviest Spell of Monsoon rains 2011 in Sindh 05 Flooding and Impact, Protest by flood victims 06 Domestic Reaction 07 Pakistan Armed Forces Figures 08 Pakistan Economy due to Flood 09 UNDPS Early Recovery Programme 10 UNDPS National Good will Ambassador visits flood affected areas in Nowshera

Page No. 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 11

11 13 14 16 16 17 18

11 12 13 14

The Pakistan Perspective Role of Govt. Institutions The Question of land reforms Challenges of International Organizations in Pakistan 15 Assistance in the coordination of aid 16 References

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2011 Sindh floods

FACTS AND FIGURES Duration:August 2011present Fatalities: At least 361 dead, 5.5 million affected Damages: 5.5 million affected, 2.7 million children affected, 4.5 million acres land damaged, 1.19 million homes damaged Areas affected: Sindh, southern Baluchistan, and eastern Punjab A BACKGROUND OF FLOOD 2011 The 2011 Sindh floods began during the Pakistani monsoon season in mid-August 2011, resulting from heavy monsoon rains in Sindh, eastern Baluchistan, and southern Punjab. The floods have caused considerable damage; an estimated 361 civilians have been killed, with 5.3 million people and 1.2 million homes affected. Sindh is a fertile region and often called the "breadbasket" of the country; the damage and toll of the floods on the local agrarian economy is said to be extensive. At least 1.7 million acres of arable land have been inundated as a result of the flooding. The flooding follows the previous year's historic 2010 Pakistan floods, which devastated the entire country. Unprecedented torrential monsoon rains caused severe flooding in 16 districts of Sindh province. Causes In the month of July Pakistan received below normal monsoon rains, however in August and September the country received above normal monsoon rains. A strong weather pattern entered the areas of Sindh from the Indian states of Rajasthan and Gujarat in August and gained strength with the passage of time and caused heavy downpours. The four weeks of continuous rain have created an unprecedented flood situation in Sindh. The District Badin in Sindh province received record breaking rainfall of 615.3 millimeters (24.22 in) during the monsoon spell breaking earlier recorded 121 millimeters (4.8 in) in Badin in 1936. The area of Mithi also received record rainfall of 1,290 millimeters (51 i in) during the spell, where maximum rainfall was recorded 114 millimeters (4.5 in) in Mithi in 2004. The heavy cloudburst during last 4872 hours displaced many people besides destroying crops in the area. The Met Office had informed
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all district coordination officers, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, chief secretaries and chief ministers about the heavy monsoon rain-spell two days ago to take precautionary measures.

Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department

Dr.Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department said: the rains in Sindh are the highest ever recorded monsoon rains during the four weeks period of August and September, 2011. Before the start of these rains in the second week of August, Sindh was under severe drought conditions and it had not received any rainfall for the last 12 months. The last severe rainfall flooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003, he said and added, but this time the devastating rains of Mithi, Mirpurkhas, Diplo, Parker, Nawabshah, Badin, Chhor, Padidan, and Hyderabad etc during the four weeks period have created unprecedented flood situation in Sindh. According to Dr. Qamar, the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks is estimated to be above 37 million acre feet, which is unimaginable.[4] The August monsoon rainfall, over province of Sindh (271 % above normal) is the heaviest recorded during the period 1961 2011. Torrential rainfall recorded in August and September in Sindh Following are the heavy rainfalls recorded in sindh province in the months of August and September, 2011 based on data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.The first monsoon spell hit the southern parts of sindh on 10 August, that produce record breaking widespread torrential rainfalls and resulted in floods in district Badin. while the second spell hit the areas on 30 August, that lasted till 2 September. In the month of September four more consecutive spells of monsoon rainfall devastated the southern parts of the province. The first spell of September hit the already inundated parts of province on 2 September, thereafter the second spell hit on 5 September, and the third on 9 September, and fourth on 12 September 2011.[9] The four spells of monsoon produced even more devastating torrential rains in the already flooded affected areas of sindh.
City Mithi Mirpur Khas Nawabshah August Rainfall (mm) 530* 263.1* 275.2* Rainfall (in) 21.0 10.3 10.8 September Rainfall (mm) 760* 603* 353.2* Rainfall (in) 30.0 23.7 13.9 Total Rainfall (mm) 1290* 866.1* 628.4* Total Rainfall (in) 51.0 34.1 24.7

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Badin Chhor Dadu Padidan Hyderabad Karachi

331.2* 276 134.1 251.2 162.2 61.2

13.0 10.9 5.2 9.8 6.3 2.4

284.1 268 348.1 172 244.2 212.2

11.1 10.6 13.7 6.8 9.6 8.3

615.3* 544* 482.2* 423.2* 406.4 273.3

24.2 21.4 18.9 16.6 16.0 10.7

*Indicates new record. Heaviest spell of Monsoon rains of 2011 in Sindh

Following are the heaviest rainfalls recorded in the Monsoon spell in sindh province in the months of August and September, 2011 based on data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

City Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (in) Monsoon Spell Notes Mithi 760 30.0 1 to 14 September* Mirpur Khas 603 23.7 1 to 14 September Padidan 356 14.0 30 August to 4 September* Nawabshah 353.2 13.9 1 to 14 September Dadu 348.1 13.7 1 to 14 September Badin 302.1 11.8 10 to 14 August* Chhor 268 10.6 1 to 14 September Hyderabad 244.2 9.6 1 to 14 September Karachi 212.2 8.3 1 to 14 September * 1 to 14 September 2011 four consecutive spells of monsoon rains. * 1 to 14 August 2011 first spells of monsoon rains in sindh. * 30 August to 4 September second spell of monsoon rains in sindh. Flooding and impact Millions of people have been affected because of heavy rains that started in August, coinciding with monsoon season. The villages have become easily affected because of it Badin is a red alert one which can be thought to be flooded. The area of Sangarh is declared as a most dangerous one. Oxfam has warned that aid should be provided to Pakistanis or they will die. 5.3 million People are to have been affected because of floods. 200 people are said to have been killed. Protests by flood victims Some Pakistanis affected by the flood are protesting the government's response as slow and inadequate. i. Health concerns ii. Diseases spread. Gastroenteritis and malaria have killed many of infected people. Domestic reaction A special wing of the ministry of the Government of Sindh has been created to deal with the flooding. The Chief Minister of Sindh Qaim Ali
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Shah has visited the affected areas, announcing a million rupees in relief for each of flood victims. Various politicians are also engaged in setting up relief camps for the victims. A helpline 0800-11-121 has been set up for the victims. PAK-ARMED FORCES The Pakistani Army and Navy are actively engaged in flood relief and helping victims. The flooding has been said by whom to have been more disastrous than the 2004 Tsunami.

A NASA satellite image showing the Indus River at the time of floods PAKISTAN ECONOMY DUE TO FLOOD Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is warning the country's devastating floods will slow economic growth and lead to rising inflation and massive job losses. In a speech to his Cabinet Wednesday, Mr. Gilani said economic growth would drop to 2.5 percent from the predicted 4.5 percent in the 2011 financial year.
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The prime minister also said inflation would likely hit 15 to 20 percent next year. More than a month of flooding triggered by monsoon rains has killed an estimated 1,600 people, affected nearly 20 million others, and submerged one-fifth of the country. Mr. Gilani said the overall performance of Pakistan's agriculture sector will be much lower this year and next, affecting manufacturing, services and exports. He said this economic downturn will translate into massive job and income losses for thousands of families and may have what he called "serious social implications." United Nations officials have warned of hunger, homelessness, and desperation among the millions of flood victims. They say 8.6 million children have been affected, and are warning that without quick action, Pakistan is headed toward a second wave of deaths from waterborne illnesses. Foreigner Delegates U.N. officials say Pakistan has received more than $1 billion in international assistance and pledges, but need more. The receding waters in the north have allowed some people to return to their homes, but flooding in the south is spreading to new areas. British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg visited flood-stricken areas in southern Pakistan. Flooding in Sindh 2011 In total we plan to provide clean water and sanitation to nearly 850,000 people in eight districts worst affected by renewed flooding in Sindh. Two weeks into our response, we have reached more than 238,190 people. We have provided 137,979 people with clean water supplies, conducted hygiene promotion sessions
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with 8,428 people, provided 20,335 people with hygiene kits and assisted in the search and rescue of 58,208 people. UNDP's Early Recovery Programme UNDP has launched a US$120 million early recovery programme to help communities affected by the recent floods across 39 most affected districts to start to rebuild their lives. The one-year programme, part of a broader UN emergency response plan, aims at restoring livelihoods through job creation, repairing basic community infrastructure, and strengthening local government offices to get public services running again. Recovering with resilience: Pakistan floods one year on One year ago Pakistan was hit by unprecedented monsoon rains and floods. Across the country the scope and scale of the crisis was exceptional, affecting the lives of over 18 million people, washing away communities and livelihoods, and forcing millions to flee from their homes. The crisis took the lives of a confirmed 1,980 people and left an estimated 14 million in need of humanitarian assistance. UNDP National Goodwill Ambassador Aisam ul Haq announces US$10,000 donation for flood affectees United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) National Goodwill Ambassador for Early Recovery and international tennis star, Aisam ul Haq announced a donation of USD 10,000 for flood Early Recovery activities in Pakistan. The donation comes from the Haq Foundation and through funds contributed by the ATP World Tour USA the professional regulatory body of the game of tennis. European Union contributes 15 million Euros for recovery efforts in Pakistan The European Union (EU) has contributed 15 million Euro (US$ 21.2 million approx.) to support the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) early recovery work in Pakistan following the floods that devastated large parts of the country. UNDPs Early Recovery Programme aims at restoring livelihoods through job creation, repairing basic community infrastructure and strengthening local government offices to get public services running again. Pakistans flood victims
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Pakistans flood victims start to settle into new homes and earn income Fifty families uprooted by devastating floods earlier this year in Pakistans northernmost province of Gilgit-Baltistan have moved into new houses they helped to build with support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). UNDP National Goodwill Ambassador visits flood affected areas in Nowshera. UNDP Pakistan has successfully supported numerous reconstruction projects including street pavements, drainage systems and culverts in flood hit areas while many others are in progress. These projects also constitute UNDPs Cash for Work programme, wherein community members are provided supplies and paid employment to work on reconstruction of infrastructure in their communities and localities. Executive Summery In July Pakistan was hit by a flood crisis of unexpected dimension. Against this background the Heinrich-Bll-Stiftung initiated a dialog with Pakistani and German representatives from politics, academics and the NGO sector on political and economic impacts of the flood and on current needs and challenges. The impact of this natural catastrophe is disastrous: about 1.500 people died, hundreds of thousands of families lost their houses and huge parts of the countrys infrastructure were destroyed. The agricultural sector, Pakistans main source of income, was badly damaged. Moreover, the present crisis has a multiplying effect on the already existing crises including food, fuel, fiscal, democracy, terrorism and climate crisis. Particularly the northwest of Pakistan, the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is badly affected. After the flood struck the province with its full strength, the provincial government is now confronted with both a natural disaster and the impacts of the war on terror. The governments overall crisis management in general was considered, by observers, to be inefficient and corrupt. Although eventually governmental relief aid was provided, it was the military and militant groups that came to the peoples immediate assistance.

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Germanys Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) has provided 35 Million Euro emergency aid to Pakistan and also restructured some ongoing development projects in order to meet the needs of the flood affected people particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Germany is also convinced that the Pakistan government is able and committed to support and assist its people, though it is not clear yet whether it uses own funds or whether it needs financial support of the international community. The existence of widespread corruption and institutional weaknesses made international donors skeptical whether funds would be used properly. Since less than ten percent of the population are paying taxes, it was also questioned whether Pakistan should fix this problem first before it gets more funds. Another controversy was the issue of land reforms, including redistribution of land to peasant families. However, it should be considered that the deep rooted feudal structures in the country cannot be changed overnight and that it is a lengthy process that needs a careful approach. So far, international organizations in Pakistan face many challenges including security and corruption issues, lack of coordination in regard to emergency aid, lack of opportunities to implement available funds for projects, discrimination of minorities regarding their access to assistance or the general lack of basic information and data (population, meteorological data) for proper project planning. Pakistan is still in need of international assistance. For the upcoming winter season, people need warm shelter, beds and blankets. Furthermore it is necessary to assess the needs of the people after the first emergency aid, particularly in terms of reconstruction and the implementation of sustainable development projects. However, it is most important that donors cooperate with a legitimate, elected government with a strong monitoring and evaluation mechanism. Aim of the Conference Pakistan is a crisis-ridden country it is challenged by political, economical, ecological and security problems. In July 2010, Pakistan was hit by a flood disaster of unexpected dimension. About 1.500 people lost their lives, hundreds of thousands of families became internally displaced and huge parts of the country were destroyed. The impact of this catastrophe on the countrys stability is uncertain so far.
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The Heinrich-Bll-Stiftung initiated a dialog with Pakistani and German representatives from politics, academics and the NGO sector on political and economic impacts of the flood and also on current needs and challenges. Questions in regards to the regions stability were put in the focus: Is the military the winner of disaster? Could Islamist organizations strengthen their image among the people? And is the aid of the international community sufficient? In regard to the last question, the work of the international community, particularly the role of Germany, was highlighted. The speakers from Pakistan were: Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, Expert on the Pakistan Military, Islamabad Dr. Abid Suleri, Executive Director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad Muhammad Idrees Kamal, Citizens Rights and Sustainable Development, Peshawar Shahgufta Malik, Member of Provincial Assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar The speakers from Germany were: Ute Koczy, Development Spokesperson of the Green Group (Bndnis 90/Die Grnen) in the German Parliament Christiane Hieronymus, Head of the Afghanistan/Pakistan Department, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Thomas Gebauer, Executive Director of Medico International The Pakistani Perspective: Status Quo Four Months after the Flood In July this year the flood hit the north-west of Pakistan heading southwards in the following months and devastating huge parts of the country. People died. Hundred thousands of families lost their homes, their livestock or their cultivated fields. The flood did not only destroy the livelihood of already poor people but also affected important parts of the infrastructure including education and health facilities. The north-western part of Pakistan (the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa formerly known as Northwest Frontier Province) was affected most by the flood. About 80 to 90 percent of the province was destroyed, particularly the region of Nowshera and Charsadda. Despite the overall destructive force of this natural catastrophe, it was partly man made in the southern province of Sindh. When the flood reached the province, it was already September. Thus, the federal as well as the provincial government failed to take some precautions and arrangements.

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Furthermore, the flood caused the erosion of soil and the damage of irrigation channels and cultivated fields. As a result, subsistence-based families remain vulnerable and dependent on external support for a certain time. In a state, where agriculture constitutes the main source of income, the damage in the agrarian sector poses a midterm problem not only for single families but also for the entire economy of Pakistan. Role of Government Institutions When the flood reached the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the government announced the evacuation of houses. This was initially refused by many people, because hardly anybody believed in an upcoming disaster. The refusal of people to leave their homes is also linked to local cultures and traditions. Daily life takes place in the privacy of a familys home. Therefore, the destruction of houses deprives families of housing place and, at the same time, of a retreat, particularly for female family members. After the flood struck the province with its full strength, the provincial government was paralyzed. It was a critical situation, as the government had hardly any resources to provide aid to the people. It was the assistance of the military (and its equipment, such as helicopters and boats) that enabled the government to first rescue people and then provide food and non-food items. By now, the provincial government has started different relief activities in almost every constituency. Camps were established and food was distributed. Besides the provisions of tents, government school buildings were transferred into temporary shelters. Nevertheless, the help given was not sufficient, since the province was, prior to the flood, already in a state of war. Many people, particularly children and women, are mentally disturbed and most vulnerable in this crisis. Despite all efforts by the provincial government and other actors, such as NGOs, civil society or host families, more resources and aid is urgently needed. In regard to the upcoming winter season, however, the temporary tents are not sufficient any more. There is a need of warm shelters, beds and blankets. The main need, which cannot only be provided by the provincial government, is, however, the beginning of a rehabilitation process. So far, the provincial government has not received any financial support from the federal government or international donors. The chief minister of the province has already initiated a meeting with international donor agencies to convince them of the necessity to help
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and support the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Regarding the ongoing war on terror in the region, it is even more important to support this crisisridden province. In general, Pakistan is in need of international support. Many regional organizations, which help affected families, are charity based or depended on external funding. Also the financial support of the Pakistan government does not meet the needs of the people so far. The government has issued so called Watan Cards with a balance of 20.000 Rupees (approx. 180 EUR) to affected families. This amount is, however, not sufficient for the reconstruction of houses. Thus, main problems are the rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods, as well as the resettlement of homeless people. If such processes are not initiated in the upcoming months, a crisis after the crisis will emerge and aggravate the security situation in the region. In this regard, Pakistan needs assistance by the international donor community, also because the government lacks functioning institutions to handle such issues. The Flood as a Catalyst for Existing Crises Pakistan is facing a multi-fold crisis: a food, fuel, fiscal, democracy, terrorism and climate crisis. They are all interlinked and somehow extent the effect of each other. The flood now multiplies the effect of these already existing crises in the country. Prior to the flood, there was yet a food crisis in the country. According to a report by the World Food Programme and Sustainable Development Policy Institute released in June 2010, about 48 percent of Pakistans population is affected by food insecurity. After the flood and its disastrous impacts, this crisis was aggravated and the number of people rose to 60 percent. Pakistan has been facing a deteriorating fuel crisis for many years, which leads to energy shortage and blackouts. This crisis was in turn aggravated by a lack of energy and lack of budgetary discipline. The flood threatened some of the power plants, and the supply of natural gas and oil had to be reduced because of standing water. The Question of Land Reform Another controversy was the role of land owners and the continuous need of a comprehensive land reform in a country which is characterized by feudal structures. In the course of the flood crisis, this issue was raised again by different stakeholders in and outside Pakistan. Many tenants have lost their crops and fields their livelihood. Despite the catastrophe, they are compelled to pay their tenure to affluent land owners. There is a common understanding that these feudal structures will have a negative impact on reconstruction and rehabilitation
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measures, and that they are also one of the root causes of poverty. Therefore, land reforms are demanded, including redistribution of land to peasant families who are depended on the good will of land owners. Nevertheless, it should be considered that these deep rooted feudal structures cannot be changed overnight. It is a lengthy process that needs a careful approach. Although the bilateral development cooperation between Germany and Pakistan does not include the agricultural sector, the issue of land reform is yet on the agenda and part of the dialogue. Impact Monitoring of Projects In regard to the security situation and access to certain areas in Pakistan, the evaluation and monitoring of projects is difficult. Many international organizations rely entirely on the monitoring abilities of their local partners. This is also the case for projects of the BMZ in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The ministry trains students from FATA in impact monitoring, in order to assure the efficiency of projects and the proper use of funds. This, in turn, is a contribution to training and qualification of local people. Challenges for International Organizations in Pakistan Development work or emergency aid is not an easy task in Pakistan, particularly in times of crisis. The response of aid does not match the scale of devastation, which in turn creates frustration among organizations working on the ground in Pakistan. Furthermore, government institutions lack coordination of emergency aid. There is also discrimination of minorities in terms of access to assistance. There is a selective distribution of relief goods by political actors and land lords mainly in the south of the country. For many organizations, it is difficult to find reliable partners to initiate projects. There is a general lack of basic information and data (population, meteorological data) for proper planning. Last but not least, general challenges include security issues and corruption. The macroeconomic framework, including the fiscal situation, poses another challenge for international donors. Pakistan has committed itself to realize certain fiscal reforms (e.g. reducing subsidies), which were not implemented so far. Thus, donors have become impatient and unwilling to send more funds to Pakistan also in the light of the flood crisis. Until now, the government of Pakistan has not asked for support for infrastructure reconstruction, but for direct budget support instead. Furthermore, the administrative system of Pakistan is not
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efficiently responsive to peoples needs and to the demands of the environment. Therefore, it is most important to assess the needs of the people after the first emergency aid has been implemented. Summary: Expectations, Needs and Challenges Short term expectations: Physical availability of food items therefore convincing policy makers to open trade with India through Wagah Border (near Lahore) Humanitarian relief items such as (warm) shelters, beds and blankets Rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods Ban of livestock export, since a huge number of people have lost their animals Assistance in the coordination of aid Midterm expectations: Land tenure arrangements, including redistribution and redemarcation of land. This bears problems of corruption and anger, since land tenure or land ownership is not computerized. Distribution of seed and fertilizers Soil analysis for proper use of agricultural land Long term expectations: An overall agricultural policy including land reform (because 80% of land is in the hands of only 20% of people), crop cultivation, size of land, access to water etc. Resettlement programmes for people who live near the rivers Anti-corruption programmes Programmes for the social sector such as education and health facilities Support in regard to the war on terror and its impact on the society Adjustment of aid policy of the international donor community, because it is virtually an extension of the policy of the war on terror (For example, Germany has concentrated its help only on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa although other provinces are equally affected by the flood and problems of militancy) Exchange of international donors, civil society and the government to address and reassess the needs of the people in order to implement aid programmes properly Discontinuation of the sale of military equipment by supplier states (fighter jets from USA and China, Negotiations on buying Submarines from Germany and France). It is the responsibility of supplier states, which are at the same time donors of aid, to prevent Pakistan to spend millions of dollars for military equipment.
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Exchange of regional experiences (India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) towards the establishment of institutional and social structures and how to meet natural disasters Transparency in regard to the implementation of studies such as the postdisaster survey Damage and Needs Assessment of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (e.g. objections in terms of validity of data) Pakistan after the Flood: Needs and Challenges for a Sustainable Reconstruction Refrences: www.google.com.pk Wikipedi search Other websites

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