Paul Bowler

Head of Delivery @spbowler @RadicalCo 31st January, 2013

Think again!
How our decision-making processes get us into trouble

The Project

The Plan
Target
40 30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Intention

The kickoff

Iteration 1
Target
40

Actual

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 1
Target
40

Actual

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 2
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 2
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 3
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 3
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 4
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

The Steering Group

The NEW Plan

Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iteration 5
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Iterations 6-12
Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

What were they thinking?

Target
40

Actual

Original

30 Velocity

20

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Iteration

Hindsight bias

Overcondence effect

Planning fallacy

Availability bias

Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Selection bias

Conrmation Bias

Subjective validation bias

Precision bias

Estimation anti-patterns
Ask an expert Ask him (or her) face-to-face Know the answer you want in advance Confuse precision with accuracy If the answer doesnt match your gure
then ask somebody else

Why was the plan accepted?

Framing effect

Interloper effect

False consensus effect

Survivor bias

Optimism bias

Bandwagon effect

What happened next?

Outcome bias

Correspondence bias

"When I'm wrong it's through circumstances beyond my control. When you're wrong it's through incompetence."

Cognitive dissonance

Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis)

Optimism
100 80 Aggregate as % 60 40 20 0

Blame

10

11

12

Iteration

Why wasnt the project stopped?

Sunk cost fallacy

Pseudocertainty effect

Optimism
Optimism
100 80 Aggregate as % 60 40 20 0

10

11

12

Iteration

Information bias

...and many more

Where do these biases come from?

Extended Concentration
Concentration
100 Concentration as % 80 60 40 20 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Elapsed Time (mins)

System1

System 2

Biases Beliefs Behaviours

Antidotes?

Vigilance, persistence and a healthy dose of skepticism!

Sheena Iyengar

When unsure, think again. When certain, denitely think again!

Thank you.
linkedIn: paulbowler twitter: @spbowler email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com web: radicalcompany.com