Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 10, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 10, 2013

Highlights
German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.1 bn Euros in February. Japans Prelim Machine Tool Orders fell by 21.6 percent in March. UKs Manufacturing Production increased by 0.8 percent in February. Chinas trade balance was at deficit of $0.9 billion in March. Asian Markets are trading higher on the back of positive US stocks coupled with rise in Chinas import data. Chinas trade balance was at deficit of $0.9 billion in March as compared to the surplus of $15.2 billion in February. US National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index declined by 1.3 points to 89.5-mark in March as against a rise of 90.8-level in February. Wholesale Inventories declined by 0.3 percent in February from rise of 0.8 percent in prior month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5495.1 18226.5 14673.46 1568.6 15436.1 1920.7 58497.8 13192.4 94.20 1586.20 2786.60 7630.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.9 -1.1 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.8 2.1 0.0

as on April 9, 2013 WoW -4.4 -4.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -3.3 6.6 -0.1 -3.1 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.1 MoM -7.1 -6.8 1.5 1.1 -3.7 -4.0 1.9 5.0 1.8 -0.1 -4.3 -2.8 0.4 YoY 4.8 -0.3 13.5 13.5 -1.6 -5.2 38.2 -8.1 -3.4 -11.6 -8.8 0.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also exerted downside pressure in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was capped on account of unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.375 and closed at 82.41 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.41 54.47 54.76 54.76 Prev. day -0.5 0.2 -0.01 -0.01 WoW -0.8 -0.1 0.28 0.27

as on April 9, 2013 MoM -0.2 -0.6 0.40 0.39 YoY 3.7 -6.0 6.41 6.41

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers coupled with foreign outflows. Additionally, weak domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.655 and closed at 54.47 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.412.40 crores th ($76.35 million) as on 9 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.56,034.80 crores ($10,386.40 million) till 9th April 2013. Outlook

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on account of dollar demand from importers along with outflow of foreign funds from the financial institutions.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for April 10, 2013 Support 54.60/54.45 Resistance 54.90/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 10, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, sharp gains in the euro were capped due to unfavorable economic data from Europe. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.1 billion Euros in February as against earlier surplus of 15.6 billion Euros a month ago. French Gov Budget Balance was at deficit of 27.1 billion Euros in February from previous deficit of 12.8 billion Euros a month earlier. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 6 billion in February as compared to deficit of 5.7 billion in prior month. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3103 and closed at 1.3081 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of positive French Industrial production data may support euro to trade in green. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.20/70.95 71.60/71.80 valid for April 10, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3081 71.10 71.4 71.4 Prev. day 0.6 -0.2 0.13 0.11

as on April 9, 2013 WoW 2.1 -1.8 1.85 1.87 MoM 0.4 -0.9 -0.20 -0.19 YoY -0.1 -5.6 6.13 6.13

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5321 83.623 83.73 Prev. day 0.45 0.424 -0.05

as on April 9, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.45 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of favorable economic data from UK coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, weakness in DX supported currency to gain strength. UKs Manufacturing Production increased by 0.8 percent in February as against a decline of 1.9 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.4 billion Pounds in February from earlier deficit of 8.2 billion Pounds a month earlier. Industrial Production rose by 1 percent in February from decline of 1.3 percent in previous month. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5341 and closed at 1.5321 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, positive economic data in yesterdays trading session will support the currency to gain strength. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 10, 2013 Support 83.40/83.05 Resistance 84.0/84.30

WoW 1.5 1.70 1.02

MoM 2.8 3.11 2.07

YoY -3.6 2.88 2.58

83.74

-0.05

1.03

2.08

2.62

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 10, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined by 21.6 percent in March from previous fall of 21.5 percent in February. Bank Lending increased by 1.6 percent in last month as against a rise of 1.5 percent in February. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 98.58 and closed at 99.02 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 10, 2013 Support 55.10/54.80 Resistance 55.60/55.90
Source: Telequote

as on April 9, 2013 Last 99.02 0.5514 55.42 55.42 Prev day -0.3 0.38 -0.27 -0.28 WoW 6.0 -5.42 -5.27 -5.29 MoM 3.1 -2.56 -2.87 -2.90 YoY 21.5 -11.92 -12.35 -12.38

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 10, 2013

Indicator Trade Balance New Loans French Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Meeting Minutes Federal Budget Balance Country China China Europe US US US US Time (IST) 7:30am 10 -13
th th

Actual -0.9B -

Forecast 15.2B 890B 0.6% 1.6M -110.3B

Previous 15.3B 620B -1.2% 2.7M 2.03/3.2 -203.5B

Impact High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium

12:15pm 8:00pm 10:30pm 11:30pm 11:30pm

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