Engineering Analysis & Statistics

INTRODUCTORY LECTURE TO STATISTICS

COURSE CODE: ME- 5601 COURSE INSTRUCTOR: SYED SABYEL HAIDER LECTURER BSD UET, TAXILA

Agenda
2

General Introduction of Course

Why you should study Engineering

Analysis & Statistics

Method of Statistical Thinking Contents of Course

Grade Criteria
First Topic Treatment of Data (or Data Analysis)

General Introduction of Course

3

Contacts

Instructor: Syed Sabyel Haider Office: Computer & Software Engg Block (1st Floor BSD) Cell # 3123457346 (9 A.M to 5 P.M) Ext 269 (5 to 9 P.M) Email: SABYEL.HAIDER@UETTAXILA.EDU.PK OR SABYEL.HAIDER@CAMP.NUST.EDU.PK

Lectures Hrs 15:00-18:00 (Monday)

Instruction

Announcement: All announcements regarding changes in the class (Time) will be made through class representative (C.R) or sent via email. Responsibility: Regular attendance is essential. Students who miss a class are responsible of all the work, notes, handouts, quiz and assignments they miss. Need: Every one must have his/her own Scientific Calculator, you are not allowed to use mobile as a calculator also Sharing of calculator is not allowed in Exam & Quiz. Careful: Everybody is asked to keep cell phones off/ silent during class sessions and abstain from unnecessary and unauthorized conversation

General Introduction of Course

4

Course Prerequisite:
Calculus (Integral & Differential) Algebra (Solution of system of Equation)

Recommended Books
1. 2. 3. 4.

Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, By Douglas C. Montgomery Probability for Engineers By Irwin Miller, John E Freund Statistical methods for Engineering & Scientists, By Walpol & Meyers Introduction to statistics Theory, By Sher Mohammad Besides class hours(ONLY 48 hrs), every student should devote at least 6 hours a week to grasp the content of the book and the class notes, to work out the examples.

Students Efforts:

Why you should study Engineering Analysis & Statistics

5

Statistics is a discipline that includes procedure and techniques used to collect

process and analyse numerical data to reach at decision in case of uncertainty. Descriptive Statistics Consists of organizing and summarizing data. Inferential Statistics Consists of using data youve collected to form conclusions.

THE ENGINEERING METHOD AND STATISTICAL THINKING

6

An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to society by the efficient application of scientific principles. Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing product or process or by designing a new product or process that meets customers needs.

Steps in the Engineering Method

7 1. Develop a clear and concise description of the problem. 2. Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors that affect this problem or that may play a role in its solution.

3. Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering knowledge of the phenomenon being studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the model.
4. Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or validate the tentative model or conclusions made in steps 2 and 3. 5. Refine the model on the basis of the observed data. 6. Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the problem. 7. Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed solution to the problem is both effective and efficient. 8. Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the problem solution.

Why you should study Engineering Analysis & Statistics

8

How to make accurate predictions

How to exercise accurate decision

The mark you will get on the

Can you make money by playing

final Your average annual income over the next several years
Whether it will rain tomorrow

the Lottery?
Population Sample

a
Inference

Parameters

Statistic

..

Weekly Plan of Course

9
Week # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Course Contents
Introduction to Statistics, Treatment of data Measures of central tendency, Variance, Standard deviation Counting Principle, Probability & its elementary theorems Conditional probabilities, Bays theorem Mathematical expectation and decision making Sampling distributions Probability distributions Probability densities Regression, Correlation & Rank Correlation Standard error of estimates Curve fitting by least square methods incorporating linear, polynomial, exponential & power function Estimation of parameters

13
14 15 16

Point and interval estimates

Confidence interval Statistical decisions Hypotheses tests

Grade Criteria
10

Sr. # 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Marks Distribution Quiz Attendance Assignment/ Presentation Mid Term EXAM Final Term EXAM Total

% weight 10

10
20 20

40
100

Attendance Policy: Students with attendance less than 85 % are not allowed to take the Final Exam
In order not to disturb the lecture, the students should always arrive on time and avoid leaving the class early. Arriving late to the class 2 times will account for one absence. (only 2 Absentee are allowed out of 16)

Mid Term Exam: You have choice of

open book Mid term Exam, Makeup exams will not be given.

(Expected date for Mid Term Exam: 14 October 2013)

Presentation of Data
11

There are three main types for presentation of data. Classification Tabulation Graphical Display

Classification
12

Classification is the sorting of data into homogeneous classes or groups according to their being alike or not: OR Process of dividing a set of data into classes or groups in such a way that, Observation in same class are similar Observation in each class are dissimilar to the other classes.

Tabulation
13

It is the systematic presentation of classified

data under suitable heading and placed in the forms of rows and columns. This sort of logical arrangement makes the data easy to understand, facilitates comparison and provides effective way to convey information to reader.

Graphical Display
14

A visual representation of statistical data in the form of lines, area and

other geometrical shapes is known as graphical representation.

Graphical Display is further divided into two types. These types are as follow:

Graph Diagram

Frequency Distribution
15

The organization of data in a table which shows

distribution of data into classes or groups together with the number of observation in each class is called frequency distribution. The number of observation in each class is referred as frequency.

Frequency distribution terms

16

Class Limit Class Boundary

Class Interval
Class Mark ( Midpoint value)

Make a Classification of data into groups

17

106, 107, 76, 82, 109, 107, 115, 93, 187, 95, 123, 125, 111, 92, 86, 70, 110, 126,

68, 130, 129, 139, 115, 128, 100, 186, 84, 99, 113, 204, 111, 141, 136, 123,

90,

115, 98, 110, 78, 185, 162, 178, 140, 152, 173, 146, 158, 194, 148, 90, 107, 181,
131, 75, 184, 104, 110, 80, 118, 82.

204-68=136

136/7=19.47 Let h=20

Class Limits
65-84

Class Boundaries
64.5-84.5

Class Marks
74.5
18

Tally Marks Frequenc y IIII IIII

9

85-104
105-124 125-144 145-164 165-184

84.5-104.5
104.5-124.5 124.5-144.5 144.5-164.5 164.5-184.5

94.5
114.5 134.5 154.5 174.5

IIIIIIII
IIII IIIIIIII II IIIIIIII

10
17 10 6 4

IIII I IIII IIII

185-204

184.5-204.5

194.5

Difference between Graph and Diagram

19

A graph is a representation of data by

continuous curve
Diagram is any other form of visual

representation.

Diagrams
20

Simple Bar Chart:

A simple

bar chart consist of horizontal or vertical bar of equal widths and lengths equal to value represented by frequency

Example: Draw a simple bar diagram to represent the turnover of a company for 5 years 21
Years Turnover (in Dollars) 1965 35000 1966 42000 1967 43500 1968 48000 1969 48500

Years
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1965 1966 1967 Years 1968 1969

Multiple Bar Chart

22

A multiple Bar chart shows two or more characteristics

corresponding to value of a common variable in the form of grouped bars whose lengths are proportional to the value of the characteristics and each bar is colored or shaped differently.
Example:

Draw Multiple bar diagram to show area and from the following data

production of cotton

Year
1965-66 1970-71

Area
2866
23 3233

Production
1588 2229

1975-76

3420

1937

Chart Title
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

1000
500 0 1965-66 Area 1970-71 Production 1975-76

Component Bar Chart

24

A component bar chart is an effective technique in which each bar

is divided into two or more sections proportional in size to component part of total being displayed by each bar
Example: Draw a component Bar chart of Population city wise

Cities
Peshawar Rawalpindi Sargodha Lahore

Total
64 40 60 65

Male
33 21 32 35

Female
31 19 28 30

Component Bar Chart

25
Chart Title
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 Peshawar Rawalpindi Male Female Sargodha Lahore

Pie Diagram
26

Example: Represent the total expenditure and expenditure of

various items of a family by the Pie diagram.
27

Items
Expenditure Angle of Sector

Food
50 50/150*360 =120

Clothing
30 30/150*360 =72

House rent
20 20/150*360 =48

Fuel
15 15/150*360 =36

Misc.
35 35/150*360 =84

Food

Clothing

House Rent

Fuel

Misc

Graphs
28

Historigram:
A curve showing changes in the value of one or more item from one period to next period of time is known as historigram.

Example
29

Year
No. of Cars

1929
98

1930
74

1931
68

No. of Cars
120 100 80

60
40 20 0 1929 1930 No. of Cars 1931

Histogram:
30

A histogram consist of a set of adjacent

rectangles whose bases are marked off by class boundaries or the X-axis and whose height are proportional to frequency associated with respective classes

Example: Construct a histogram for following frequency Distribution

relating ages of telephone operators

Age (Years) 18-19 20-24

31

25-29

30-34

35-44

45-54

No. of Operators

188

160

123

84

15

Class Boundaries
17.5-19.5 19.5-24.5 24.5-29.5 29.5-34.5 34.5-44.5 44.5-54.5

Class Interval
2 5 5 5 10 15

Proportional Height
4.5 37.6 32 24.6 8.6 1

Exercise
32

How to collect data?