CONTENTION 1: INHERENCY CTBT Passage is inevitable Indonesian ratification created moment m !

!imball 1"#$ (Daryl, "Indonesian Ratification of the CTBT Provides New Momentum for ntry Into
!orce," Pro"ect for the Com#rehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, www$#ro"ectforthect%t$or&'Indonesian( Ratification(of(the(CTBT(Provides(New(Momentum(for( ntry(Into(!orce)

CTBT %ill &ass' Obama is & s(ing %it( )N s &&ort' *a(l+ Fredrik. ",1- ("UN chief ups pressure on nuclear test ban holdouts." Reuters. Reuters , 2/17/2012. eb. !http"//in.reuters.co#/article/2012/02/17/nuclear$test$ban$ id%N&''(1)0F*20120217+.,-k C rrent CTBT is not verifiable g arantees c(eating Baile. and /c(eber 11 (.athleen /aile0, senior associate at the National %nstitute for
1ublic 1olic0 (N%11,, and 2ho#as 3cheber, 4ice 1resident of the N%11, 52he 6o#prehensi7e 2est /an 2reat0" 8n 8ssess#ent of the /enefits, 6osts, and Risks9, National %nstitute for 1ublic 1olic0, :/11/11, http"//;;;.nipp.or</62/2=20:.11.11=20electronic=207ersion.pdf,

0P/ detection monitors are not &rogramed to monitor t(e ionos&(ere' Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k

T( s t(e &lan: T(e )nited /ates federal government s(o ld se its global &ositioning satellites to monitor t(e ionos&(ere for dist rbances in electron densit. ca sed b. n clear tests' CONTENTION ": 1ERI2IC3TION

0P/ allo%s for effective verification addresses )/ concerns Par4 et al 11(1ark, >ih0e, &orota )re-ner, and Ralph Frese. 2011,("8 ne; ;a0 to detect secret nuclear tests" )13." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. /ulletin of 8to#ic 3cientists, (/1(/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.thebulletin.or</;eb$edition/op$eds/ne;$;a0$to$detect$secret$nuclear$tests$<ps+.,-k

1erification directl. decreases c(eating 5al4er 11 (>ohn, 1h& and research fello; on ar#s control, 52he 62/2" 4erification and
&eterrence9 10/1*/12, http"//;;;.7ertic.or</#edia/assets/1ublications/4/1*.pdf,

T5O /CEN3RIO/: /CEN3RIO 1: R)//I3 6O*ERNI73TION 3 non#verifiable CTBT ca ses R ssian vertical &roliferation leads to 8a&anese &rolif 6edalia+ 9: (>onathan, 3pecialist in National &efense Forei<n 8ffairs, &efense, and 2rade
&i7ision at the 6on<ressional Research 3er7ice, 56o#prehensi7e Nuclear$2est$/an 2reat0" %ssues and 8r<u#ents,9 ?arch 12,

83P3NE/E PRO;I2 ;E3*/ TO RENE5E* CHINE/E N3TION3;I/6+ EN* O2 IT/ NO#2IR/T#)/E PO;ICY 3N* N)C;E3R 53R 5ITH THE )'/' NTI+ 9$ (10/1(/0*, Nuclear 2hreat %nitiati7e, 2hreat Reduction 8<enc0 created b0 6NN founder 2ed 2urner and for#er
U.3. 3enator 3a# Nunn ;ith securit0 representati7es fro# 10 different nations,5Nuclear 6onflict in the 21st 6entur0" Re7ie;in< the 6hinese Nuclear 2hreat,9 http"//;;;.nti.or</e@research/e:@(0.ht#l,

)/#C(ina %ar %ill go n clear and destro. t(e &lanet

/traits Times "! A5Re<ional Fallout" No one <ains in ;ar o7er 2ai;an,9 >un 2BC
3sian &roliferation is t(e most li4el. scenario for n clear %ar' Eac( instance is a ni< e ris4' Cirincione+ "! D &irector of the Non$1roliferation 1ro-ect at the 6arne<ie 'ndo;#ent for %nternational 1eace (3prin<
2000, >oseph, Forei<n 1olic0, 52he 8sian Nuclear Reaction 6hain9, >3tor,

Inde&endentl.+ R ssian lo%#.ield %ea&ons ca se first stri4e CI3 "! (6entral %ntelli<ence 8<enc0, Effice of 2ransnational %ssues, 5'7idence of Russian
&e7elop#ent of Ne; 3ub$.iloton Nuclear arheads9, (/:0/2000, http"//;;;.foia.cia.<o7/docs/&E6@00012*0F*:/&E6@00012*0F*:.pdf,

R ssian la nc( ens res &lanetar. e=tinction Caldicott 9"+ Founder of 1h0sicians for 3ocial Responsibilit0 AGelen, The new nuclear danger, p. 7$12C

/CEN3RIO ": IR3NI3N PRO;I2 C rrent I6/ cannot verif. Iranian ndergro nd n clear tests 6edalia+ 9: (>onathan, 3pecialist in National &efense Forei<n 8ffairs, &efense, and 2rade
&i7ision at the 6on<ressional Research 3er7ice, 56o#prehensi7e Nuclear$2est$/an 2reat0" %ssues and 8r<u#ents,9 ?arch 12,

Iranian &roliferation ens res Israeli stri4e' Russell 9. A>a#es 8., #ana<in< editor of 3trate<ic %nsi<hts, the Huarterl0 e-ournal published b0 the 6enter for
6onte#porar0 6onflict at the Na7al 1ost<raduate 3chool, 3prin< http"//;;;.ifri.or</files/3ecurite@defense/112*@Russell@200I.pdfC

E>TINCTION'

Hirsch 5. A>or<e, 1h0sics 1rofessor at U6 3an &ie<o,

http"//;;;.anti;ar.co#/ori</hirsch.phpJarticleidK(0(IC

56an 8 Nuclear 3trike on %ran /e 87erted9, 8nti$ ar, 11$21,

CONTENTION ?: /O;1ENCY T(e &lan %o ld be t(e fastest %a. to verif. t(e res lts of t(e I6/ Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k

Ionos&(eric monitoring can be sed to locate ndergro nd n clear test sites Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k /t dies confirm Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k