You are on page 1of 15

APR

19
Pakistan and US relations .
From Raymond Davis to Shakeel Afridi .
• Raymond Davis to OBL fiasco.
• Admiral Mike Mullen statement that Pakistan is providing safe havens to terroist
• November Salala incident .
• Closure of Ground line of Communication (GLOC) ,
• the eviction of US-personnel from Shmasi Air-field in Baluchistan .
• Warning of high profile visits and scrutiny in Islamabad .
President Obama said;
''Will continue to Press Pakistan
to expand its participation in securing
more powerful future for this war torn
region .''
1. Developments shows GHQ policies prevailed in decision making that is why provided
safe havens to Taliban.
2. President Obama did not visited in Pakistan during their tenure before presidential
election, even in 2010 when he came to India .
3. Ambassador Sherry Rehman opined per-requisites for resulting bilateral
Relations ;
• Apology of salala incident,
• Releasing suspended CSF reimbursement ,
• Increasing counter terrorism sharing intelligence sharing .
• Halting drone attacks.Shifting of policy of ''Trade ,not aid .'
High profile political assassinations;
1. 4 jan,2011 -Salaman Tasseer
2. March 2011 --shehbaz Bhatti
3. 22 May , 2011 -Mehran Naval Attack .
4. Torture and killing of journalist Saleem shehzad .
Memo-gate and domestic tensions have deteriorated further space in relations .Hilary Clinton
delayed apology regarding salala incident due to burning of Holy Quran. It was because
Pakistan is aiding Haqqani network which strengthened Taliban government . Afghanistan
has been divided into Northern Alliance and Taliban ; the later are majority in the region and
not under the control of NATO and ISAF .
U.S congressional hearings and issue of Baluchistan .
Relations further riled in Feb, 2012 when house of foreign affairs sub-committee on oversight
and investigations held a hearing on Baluchistan ,province of Pakistan that is a site of long
running separatist movement .The congress has passed resolution for a separate province .

Previous PM Gillani called it an attack on Pakistan sovereignty, and Pakistan ambassador
warned it would harm bilateral relations .The Obama administration has distanced itself
calling that it has no policy to support Baluchistan issue .
Parliamentary review of bilateral relations
Parliament has passed following recommendations regarding bilateral diplomacy after a
prolonged delay .Policy making is the matter of Pakistan cabinet ,not of Parliament.That`s
why Pakistan has delayed in foreign policy shift, which is not at all any policy itself , but
represents the weakens of spineless Parliament.
• Halting drone attacks
• Apology of salala incident
• cessation of infiltration into Pakistan `s territory including hot pursuits .
• Pakistan air ,land -space would not be used for passing the arms and ammunition
towards Afghanistan
• NATO and ISAF attack should be stopped that is blatant violation of Pakistan`s
sovereignty.
• No verbal agreement regarding national security shall be entered into by government
and all such agreements and misunderstanding shall cease exist to forthwith .
• No overt and covert operation inside Pakistan territory should be permitted .
• No private security contractors and intelligence officers shall be allowed with it .
• Pakistan territory will not be provided for the establishment of any foreign bases .
• Military reimbursement should be paid which is amounted nearly 1 million dollar of
worth , also counter terrorism funding is pending
NATO Chicago Summit
21-22 May ,summit held in Chicago, first summit that ever held outside American city
.Pakistan has boycotted previous summit to express its apprehension regarding Salala
incident .So it was unclear ,either Pakistan would be invited or not .A few days before the
inaugural , Pakistan is invited .But President Obama did not bother to meet with zardari on
sideline talks .
• Conviction and standing of dr. Shakeel Afridi
• Haqqani network issue .
• Bilateral diplomacy cease to exist .
• Drone issues
• Role of ISI (aiding taliban )
• Ongoing turmoil in Pakistan and Afghanistan relations .
• Pakistan Arab fertilizer company is producing Ammonium Nitrate(Multan region
,largest fertlizer company in the country) and it is exported that to Taliban ,which is used in
making hand made bombs as well as explosives devices .
Pakistan and USA relations .
Looking back into the past for diplomatic dealings with regional countries as well as with
Super powers ,Pakistan has been remained weak in tackling it . Dwindling resources and
inflationary trends are the two main fact which have been sprawled due to military ,civil and
political tussle. Same manner , each country serve for its own strategic interests . Pakistan `s
failure gave upper hand to USA because these are rental based relation or very much similar
to parasitic . The main issues between two countries which has soured the relations are ;
• Nuclear proliferation .
• Aiding Taliban.
• China and Pakistan nexus .
• Drone Attacks .
• Air bases
• Gawadar port
• Balichistan issue
• Kahmir problem International terrorist of Pakistan`s origin
These are the main issues which have put down the trade between two countries and aid is
sanctioned . Pakistan is not a basket case who is dependent solely over aid . Pakistan`s
budget is nearly of 60 billion .And US aid is merely 6-7% of Pakistan`s budget . The aid given
to Pakistan is amounted 700-800 million . But , it is very tragic that Pakistan has lose its
friends in USA like Henry Kissinger or John kery , congress has passed unanimous
resolution regarding aid that should not be given to Pakistan . This is diplomatic failure . That
failure has lowered the graph of foreign reserves that come in the form of trade .
Though ,OBL fiasco has been given a big hand and but dr.shakeel Afrid case has sour the
relations ,it is because that person is passing classified information to CIA and abused
human rights . Actually , he spied for Osama and injected first dose of vaccine to people
without completion of vaccination .He fled after providing DNA samples to CIA .
Salala incidents, and burning of Holy Quran (norani Qaida) had soured the relation and after
such scenario the case has passed to Pakistan`s parliament .NATO supply routes have
been seized . Shamsi Airbase was evacuated .USA officials have been scrutinized to remain
in Islamabad only . Parliament has delayed recommendations regarding USA relations ; the
delay in foreign policy is not a foreign policy ,there should be
no pauses in foreign policy .
The recommendation has been passed and routes have been opened after appreciating the
transit tax fee . But drone attacks were not put down .USA could not invade Pakistan being
nuclear armed country ,so according to them it is high policy to continue such attacks .The
case of saleem shehzad and Ghulam nabi fai ; earlier is involved in Time square bombing
where as later is aiding Kasmiriz (Assassinate of USA in Kashmir ) was given two year
prison .
Pakistan has given Gawadar port ; rival of USA which dysfunction US design in the region .
Pakistan ,India and USA are working for Afghanistan .UN 1929 resolution has soured that
triangular relations because Iran has constructed pipeline whereas it is in agreement who
failed in construction will have to pay 200 million usd per day as charge . Where as Pakistan
has to pay no transit fee as in case of TAPI .
Chnia OGDCL bank has denied to give any aid to Pakistan for IP .Whereas ,no filed for gas
has been establisehd in south pars . Pakistan has now started construction of IP and signed
an agreement on TAPI .
This matter is very sensitive for USA ,that`s why it has given charge to India ; to train (ANF)
Afgahnistan national force ,this would be a major check for Pakistan .It is like a Baluchistan
when Congress has accepted the resolution for Baluchistan as a state . But when Pakistan
took stern action which infected USA interests in the region . It drew back resolution.
Haqani network was appreciated by USA , now it has announced terrorist organization .
Pakistan due to international pressure has accepted these terms but aiding it for the cause of
kasmir . Kasmir is the sole cause of conflicts between regions .If it would be solved ,then
there would be less checks for Pakistan . US and Pakistan relations are time based but
these are important for Pakistan .Therefore ,we should not loose it but not sacrifice our
interests as well
''End Game in Afghanistan''
''End Game in Afghanistan''
1.New silk road for betterment of economic ties with regional as well global powers. Boast-up
of trade for the prosperity of region .
Episode from History (Graveyard of Empires).
1.Alexander the Great conquered,Buddhism was the dominant religion in Afghanistan .
2. At the end of the seventh century, Islam spread in Afghanistan when Arab invaders from
the Umayyad
Dynasty defeated the Persian empire of the
Sassanians
3.Complete conversion of Afghanistan to Islam occurred during the rule of the
Gaznavids,and in 1504 it was conquered by Babur.
4.Afganistan become sandwich between Mughal empire and safvid dynasty ;former
controlling kabul and east and later Herat and western Afganistan .
5.A former officer of persian ruler Nadir shah ,Ahmed shah Durani emerged and
consolidated the empire after the assassination of Nadir Shah.
6.Dost Mohmme9d khan emerged in later period and followed by Anglo-Afghan wars.
1.First Anglo Aghan war (1838-1842).
2.Second Anglo-Afghan war (1878-1880).
3.3rd Anglo Afgan war (1919-1929) By King Amanullah .
20th Century and Rulers of Afganistan.
Treaty of Rawalpinidi (August 8,1919) and
1.King Amanullah first independent ruler (1919-1929).
2.king Mohammad Nadir Shah (1929-1933).
3.King zahir shah(1933-1973).
King zahir shah pursued communist ideology and built closer ties with USSR .USSR initiated
multiple infrastructure projects during his reign .He was abroad for surgery when Military
leader Daud over thrown the government .
4.king Daud 1978--Killed by peoples` democratic party of Afganistan.
5.Hafizullah Amin and Noor Mohammad Taraki
Soviet invasion and occupation period .
1.december 27,1979 invaded to dominate Mujahideen occpation and installed barabarak
kamal replacing Amin;but he was exiled by Hafiz and Ameen.
Mujahideen PROXY = USA ,CIA and ISI
SOviet occupation = Supported by Afghan militia,tribal belts and democratic party .
seven major mujahideen parties and their
alliances(peshawer -7)
party leaders..
1.Gulbadeen hikmatyar
2.Burhan ud din Rabbani (Killed in USA drone attacks 2011,september)
3.sibghatullah Mujajdidi
4.Muhammad Nabi Muhammad.(Died)
5.Abid e RAB Rasool e sayyaf
6.younas khalis(died)
7.Piyr Gillani
U.S.A provided ''stingers ''(PORTABLE SHOULDER FIRED AIR CRAFT) to Mujahideen in
order to combat Soviet air crafts . In 1986, after the reformist Mikhail Gorbachev became
leader, the Soviets replaced Karmal with the director of Afghan intelligence, Najibullah
Ahmedzai (known by his first name).
Geneva Accords (1988) and Soviet Withdrawal
1.Russia withdrawl from Afganistan , fof Najibullah to rule ;weakned government
2.Reduced influenced after the collapse of USSR .
3.Both powers cutoff military aid for Afganistan in 1991.
The Mujahidden Government and Rise of Taliban.
weakened government of Najibullah followed by Taliban rule and both Burhandin Rabani and
hikmatyar pursued hot conflicts for the containment of Afhanistan(civil war 1992-
1996).Mullah Umer was military person of Khalis`s party ;moderate one but turned against
USA.
Taliban Rule (September 1996-November 2001.
.
The Taliban authorized its “Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Suppression of Vice”
to use physical punishments to enforce strict Islamic practices, including bans on television,
Western music, and dancing. It prohibited women from attending school or working outside
the home, except in health care, and it publicly executed some women for adultery.
U.S. Policy Toward the Taliban During Its Rule/Bin Laden Presence
The United Nations continued to seat representatives of the Rabbani government, not the
Taliban.. After the August 7, 1998, Al Qaeda bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania, the Clinton Administration began to strongly pressure the Taliban to extradite him,
imposing U.S. sanctions on Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and achieving adoption of some
U.N. sanctions as well.
The “Northern Alliance” Congeals
• Uzbeks/General Dostam
• Hazara Shiites
• Pashtun Islamists/Sayyaf.
  Northern Allaince is being supported by Ruusai ,Iran and India (having their own
motives) loose its grounds and Taliban controlled the major part of region in 2001.
  Taliban did not agree to hand over OBL to USA which lead to the military action in
Afganistan despite being the fact UN did not authorize ''Operation enduring freedom''.it help
Northern and anti-taliban forces.
  Obama administration main objective is to dismantle safe heavens and established anti-
taliban government , instability in region could jeopardize governance process.
Exit strategy in Afghanistan
1.Interim administration --bonn accords . june 2002
2.constitution --presidential set up (Northern Alliance wanted prime minister ship and given
powers to parliament also.Equal status of women ,minorities rights ,electoral road map and
hanfi based ideology is promulgated
3.Presidential election--one president and two vice president .president tenure should be of
five years .
4.First parliamentary election and first provincial and district elections.
5.2nd presidential,parliamentary and provincial election --
1.2009 election no one can get more then 50 % majority and in 2010 result of election were
disputed.
6.3rd presidential election . Karzai has no competitor for next term in 2014 but Abdullah
tajik .
Obama exit policy
1. dismantle taliban
i) Quetta shurra Taliban based on Mullah Umer network
ii)Al Qaeda/Bin Laden
Leon Panetta said on June 27, 2010, that Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan itself might
number 50-100—a range since reiterated by other officials.U.S. efforts to find Al Qaeda
leaders now reportedly focus on his close ally Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is also presumed to
be on the Pakistani side of the border and who was named new leader of Al Qaeda in June
2011. The top operational leader of Al Qaeda, Abu Yahya al-Libi, was killed by an armed
drone in Pakistan in early June 2012.
III)Hikmatyar faction.
Iv)Haqqani faction. (khost province ---working against Indian targets)and sanctuary in North
Waziristan. U.S. officials said the key goal of the designation is to help convince other
countries to shut down Haqqani-run businesses and other funding sources.
Pakistani groups.
1.TTP.Support Afghanistan for recapturing it and target against USA .
2.LET ..laskr e tyyaba
  Bombing is due to infiltration or disgruntled Afghan force due to burning of Holy Quran bu
USA forces .
  Ammonium Nitrate exported from Multan is used in making explosive bombs
  opium harvest and trade is used for purchase of arms and ammunition.
summary of USA strategy and Implementation.
  prevention from terrorist attacks
  Establishment of strong government
  Pakistan cooperation for the elimination of haqqani network .
  Encourage partners to remain in Afghanistan for security.
  Economic development region.
President Obama and other senior U.S. officials have consistently sought to reassure the
Afghans by saying that the end of 2014 will not produce a complete U.S. pullout but mark a
transition to Afghan leadership.
The Afghan National Army
Afghan National Police (ANP)
Afghan Air Force
Supplements to the National Police: Afghan Local Police (ALP) and Other Local
Forces
• Afghan Public Protection Force
Rule of Law/Criminal Justice Sector
. • President Francois Hollande, inaugurated in May 2012, reiterated in the context of the
May 20-21 NATO summit in Chicago that he would fulfill his pledge to pull French combat
troops out by the end of 2012, a year earlier than the time frame of former President
Sarkozy. As noted, France turned over Kapisa Province to Afghan control on July 4, 2012, as
part of this process.
• Britain announced in early 2012 that it would withdraw about 500 of its force by the end of
2012, and the remainder of the contingent would remain until the end of 2014. However, as
of September 2012, British officials and commanders assert that their mission in Helmand is
winding down and they reportedly are considering removing several thousand more during
2013—and possibly even ending their combat operations prior to the end of 2014. Still,
Britain has signed a partnership agreement with Afghanistan and it is likely to keep some
trainers in Afghanistan after 2014.
• Italy and Germany have also indicated an intent to try to wind down their involvement in
Afghanistan before the end of 2014. • Denmark said it will withdraw 120 troops by the end of
2012, but will increase development aid and ANSF training contributions.
• Poland said in March 2012 that it would not withdraw forces before the end of 2014.
• Belgium said it will remove 300 personnel from Kabul International Airport by the end of
2012.
• Turkey is to redeploy 200-300 personnel from Kabul by the end of 2013.
• Australia plans to end its mission in Afghanistan before the 2014 completion of the
transition. In April 2012, it began to hand off its mission in Uruzgan Province to Afghan
forces.
• New Zealand said in May 2012 it will withdraw its troops in Bamiyan Province in early
2013.
• South Korea said in July 2012 that it might pull at least some of its 400 forces out of
Parwan Province in early 2013, with the remainder to stay until the end of 2014.
Iran’s economic aid to Afghanistan supports international efforts to develop Afghanistan.Iran
provide linkages from port chahbhar but there is divergence on the issue of terrorism;Iranian
Quds Revolutionary guards are providing training to Afghna militants.
India has diametrically opposed goals as compared to Pakistan but USA now given India
privilege to train security forces which India has denied but cooperating in energy and
economical related issues .
Russia want to contain USA and control of NATO supply routes .and responded to NATO
request to provide helicopters and want to contain new silk road .
China the accommodated SCO and main interests in the region is for energy and mining of
copper and coal.
1. RECONSTRUCTION
1,Education
2,Health
3,women
4.Economy
5.Roads.
6.Bridges
7.Railways
8.Electricity.
9.Solar power
10.Agriculture.
11.Telecommunications
12.Minings
13.Airlines
14.Amu Darya Basin and Other Oil Field Projects
15.Trade Promotion/Reconstruction Opportunity Zones
Pakistan and Russia relations.
Chunks from past with Russia and Pakistan relations.
The relation with Russia were not developed and sustained .Russia developed cordial
relations with India in correlation to China.Pakistan tilted towards USA in that bipolar
world .On Kashmir ,Russia stance was totally one-sided and supportive of democrat-
India.Russia ,in late 50z desired to develop relationship with Pakistan .But its overtures were
not listened by our past governments .Its stance over Kashmir has two prongs ;one states
the right of self determination and other states it is an integral part of India.Many times ,it
used its veto power against Kashmirs rights in security council in order to favor Indians .
Bureaucracy and bangladesh facade
Super powers or emerging power relations with developing countries can be categorized in
to A ,B ,C .D degrees.Pakistan in later 50z was able to attain grade B but for a short period
.Its relation can be lift into the category of D ,in which cold war hostility exist .while in C
bureaucratic engagement is phenomenal.The worsened relations with Soviet Union was due
to Pakistan bureaucratic regime ;which was responsible for poor foreign policy and political
instability at home .prime minister Hussain shaeed suharwardi advisor was American and
Iskander Mirza son was married to US ambassador `s daughter .Ayub and Guhlam was
hysteric for power and authority .
Pakistan did not followed the communist super power policy of regional encirclement.so ,
Moscow stance was critical when part of pakistan was scrapped from the world map.Russia
tilted toward India and demand from the Pakistan to stop the aggression. Pakistan had
accepted it .Its containment policy supported the slogan of paskhtunism correletion to
kashmir `s stance;oppose the right of self determination.Pakistan being signatory of CEATO
and SENTO was not approved as being supportive of USA .Soviet union also did not bargain
the presence of Afghan Muhajir Influx and it also affected economy of Pakistan badly.
Steel Mill and Soviet`s Credits.
Finance Minister ,Ghulam Ishaq Khan, managed to retrieve aid from USSR for Karachi
Still Mills .But , Afghanistan `s issue became bone of contention between these two states
and relations went
bad again.soviet union political compromise of Afghanistan and USA did the same for
Pakistan.
Agreements and deals with Russia
1. The deal between the two states mentioned Nationals holding diplomatic and official
passport from both countries can visit for 90 days and shell enter via -viz check points.
2. The second agreement was took place in 1994 ,between Foreign ministers ,in order
to spread peace in the region and solving international disputes via bilaterally .
3. The Third agreement took place in 1997 , which dealt the matters of cultural
exchange ,assimilation and in education ,science and technology fields.It also includes
media cooperation and broadcasting the news of each state television and Radio(translated).
4. Another ,agreement took place between the states in order to diminish drug
trafficking and illicit trade.
5. Another was consular convention between Russia and Pakistan.
Sharif period and Russia
Nawaz Sharif ,after 25 years,tried to Improve relations with Russia .It was for Russia `s
support for kashmir issue and Nuclear armaments and military expansion.Nawaz tried to
Improve frosty relations but Russia was not ready to compromise Indian factor in
Pakistan.And asked it ,to stop any nuclear and military aggression .And its overtures over
Kashmir issue was the same as in past;to solve it bilaterally implicating Simla accord.
Russia stressed on Taliban issue as a major threat and warned it for future implications by
asking to solve it bilaterally .It also showed its disagreement on sending forces to Kossovo.
6.The another agreement was took place in the fields of economic cooperation during 1999.
This was initiated in order to improve trade and import-export ties.
Musharraf and Vladamir Putin
Musharraf and Vilamdir Putin