Quarterly System Status Briefing

Winter Status
Brian Molefe
Acting Chief Executive

17 June 2015

Content

Introduction

Half-year performance
Winter Outlook
Build Programme
Conclusion

Contents

Introduction
Half-Year Performance
Winter Outlook
Build programme
Conclusion

Overview

Eskom has continued to supply up to an average of 96% of electricity in the

country during the first half of 2015 and will continue to do so in Winter

We endeavour to do maintenance with no or minimal load shedding this winter

Notwithstanding, we have an aging and volatile plant :

- the cold weather increases demand, which pushes our plant to run at
100% capacity for extended periods, further exacerbating unplanned
outages
- maintenance will put an already strained system under further pressure

Up to 5 500 MW of planned maintenance will be performed, three times more than

previous winters

Every effort is being made to reduce plant breakdowns (unplanned maintenance)

to allow for planned maintenance

Medupi unit 6 is on track towards commercialisation and supplies up to 800 MW to

the grid, while still in test (synchronisation) mode

There is no prospect of a blackout in South Africa

4

Contents

Introduction
Half-Year Performance
Winter Outlook
Build programme
Conclusion

Eskom is committed to supplying the country and

minimising the risk of load shedding
During the first-half of the year, an average of 96% of electricity was supplied
in the country when load shedding in Stage 2, despite a higher demand during this
period, compared to last year
Generating performance was slightly better than expected
Open cycle gas turbines were used extensively, with the highest usage in May
Independent Power Producers continue to play an important role, contributing
about 1 827MW to the grid at a time when the power system is constrained
Renewable energy contributed about 1 300 MW during the day, of which 800 MW
was from solar and 500 MW from wind.

Benefits from the Build Programme contribute to the grid: 100 MW from Sere, and
up to 800 MW from Medupi during peak periods

Despite load shedding on average in Stage 2, Eskom

supplied 96% of electricity during the first half
electricity supplied
electricity demand
Key insights

100%

90%

In the recent
months, Eskom
had to implement
regular load
shedding due to
the unavailability
of some of the
generation units

80%

Not
Supplied

60%

50%

40%

Eskom supplied
on average 96%
of the demand
during the period

30%

20%

10%

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

0%
Apr-14

Demand

70%

We had forecast a high probability of load shedding

on most days
Jan-15

Feb-15

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu
1

Fri
2

Sat
3

Sun
1

Mon
2

Tue
3

Wed
*4

Thu
*5

Fri
6

Sat
7

10

10

* 11

12

13

14

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

* 15

16

17

18

19

20

21

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

25

* 26

* 27

28

29

30

31

Mar-15

Apr-15

Sun
1

Mon
2

Tue
3

Wed
4

Thu
5

Fri
6

Sat
7

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed
1

Thu
2

Fri
3

Sat
4

10

11

12

13

14

10

11

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

12

13

* 14

* 15

* 16

17

18

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

19

20

21

22

* 23

24

25

29

30

31

26

27

28

29

30

May-15

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
1

Sat
2

*6

*7

*9

10

* 11

12

13

* 14

15

16

17
24

18
25

19
26

20
27

21
28

22
29

23
30

Adequate generation capacity available to meet

demand and reserves
Constrained generation capacity with sufficient
supply to meet demand and reserves. Medium
probability of load shedding
Insufficient generation capacity unable to meet
demand and reserves. High probability of load
shedding

Actual system status: We performed better than

expected for January - April 2015
Stage 1

No load shedding

Stage 3

Stage 2

* stage change

Jan-15

Feb-15

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu
1

Fri
2

Sat
3

Sun
1

Mon
2

Tue
3

Wed
*4

Thu
*5

Fri
6

Sat
7

10

10

* 11

12

13

14

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

* 15

16

17

18

19

20

21

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

25

* 26

* 27

28

29

30

31

Mar-15

Apr-15

Sun
1

Mon
2

Tue
3

Wed
4

Thu
5

Fri
6

Sat
7

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed
1

Thu
2

Fri
3

Sat
4

10

11

12

13

14

10

11

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

12

13

* 14

* 15

* 16

17

18

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

19

20

21

22

* 23

24

25

29

30

31

26

27

28

29

30

Key insights

May-15

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
1

Sat
2

*6

*7

*9

10

* 11

12

13

* 14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

With the exception of May, the lights were

kept on, most days
Even during load shedding, 96% of the
country had electricity
During the month of May, on average, load
shedding was implemented for only 6 hours
in a 24-hour day

Contents

Introduction
Half-Year Performance
Winter Outlook
Build programme
Conclusion

Winter outlook:
While the system will be tight, Eskom will only
implement load shedding as a last resort
Winter 2015 is likely to be colder than last year, with a higher expected
demand in electricity during the peak periods.
We anticipate to supply 100% of electricity most days and 96% during peak
periods from 6am to 10am and 5pm to 10pm.
Even during the cold front that hit from Wednesday, 3 June, Eskom
implemented only 5 hours of load shedding on Sunday, 7 June. This after 10
consecutive days of no load shedding.
The recent load shedding from Monday, 8 June 2015 to Friday, 12 June 2015
was the result of an increase in demand and an increase in unplanned
breakdowns
Localised power outages in urban areas and illegal connections generally
increase during winter due to increased levels of customer demand and hence
cause greater stress on the system.

11

Winter outlook: continued

While the system will be tight, Eskom will only
implement load shedding as a last resort
We will continue with maintenance during winter, three times more than
previous winters.
We will continue to use all available resources: Independent Power Producers
(including renewable energy), Open Cycle Gas Turbines and Demand Market
Participation.
To date wind energy contributes between 300 MW to 500 MW during the day
and solar energy about 800 MW.
Industrial customers continue to contribute an average of 10% savings
Coal stock levels are healthy at all but three stations. The average stock level
days as at 8 June is 50.4 days against an average target of 51.2 days

12

In Winter, more electricity is used during the morning

and evening peak periods
Insights

Summer and winter load profiles

Increase in
demand
from 5pm to 10 pm
Increase in
demand
from 6am to 10am

In Winter, the demand/load

profile increases and peaks
during the morning and
evening, as more electricity is
used during these periods
In Summer, the risk of load
shedding is longer and for
most of the day
In Winter, the risk of load
shedding is for shorter
periods and only during the
peaks
The generating plant
generally performs better in
winter, as the cooler
temperatures have less
impact on the equipment
As the greatest demand is
during the peak, 4% of South
Africans could be impacted
by load shedding from 06:0010:00 & 17:00-22:00 (as per
load shedding schedules)

13

How do we do maintenance without load

shedding? Eskom intends to do maintenance with
limited load shedding
50
45

43.5 GW installed (includes Cahora Bassa and excludes Medupi)

7 GW maintenance window that must
include planned, unplanned & load losses

40

36.5 GW

35
34 GW

35GW

+ 1 500 MW
operating
reserves

20
15

Maximum demand
36GW instantaneous

25

Maximum demand
33GW instantaneous

32.5GW

30

Gw

2014 peak demand

was 35 677 MW

Summer Demand

Winter Demand

10
5
0
Capacity

Capacity from independent power producers, including renewables, reflect as a reduction in

demand when the capacity is available
14

Eskoms maintenance philosophy consists of

planned and unplanned maintenance
Planned
maintenance

Philosophy maintenance
Safety maintenance
Statutory maintenance

Maintenance
Unplanned
maintenance

Risk maintenance
Breakdowns (Total and
partial load losses)

Maintenance = Philosophy + safety + statutory + risk + breakdowns

In the short term, Eskom will prioritise RISK MAINTENANCE in order to reduce
the amount of unplanned maintenance

15 of a total of 18 maintenance outages (83%) are on power plants that are classified
as Risk 1/Risk 2/Risk 3
13 of a total of 18 maintenance outages (80%) is also philosophy maintenance

On average Eskom has a maintenance budget of 7 000 MW in winter,

which is dependent on demand requirements
11

Progress at Majuba Power Station, as all six

units can operate at full load
An immediate and gap solution is in place, enabling the station to run all six units
(3 843 MW) at full load.
-

This provides coal supplies to all six units via mobile equipment and temporary coal
stock piles.

A contract was awarded on 2 March 2015 for the interim solution which replaces
the mobile equipment with conveyor belts running from the permanent stockpiles to
ensure greater efficiency in the coal handling process.

Construction is in progress and will be completed by end September 2015.

A new permanent coal handling plant is expected to be in place at the end of 2016.
-

Design consultants have been appointed and construction is expected to begin early
January 2016, once a construction contractor has been appointed.

The investigation has been concluded and will be presented

to the Board and Shareholder

16

Duvha unit 3 boiler contract soon to be in

place
The over-pressurisation incident at Unit 3 of Duvha power station in
March 2014 took 575MW unit out of service for repair.

The incident investigation has been completed and the primary cause
was noted as a build-up of unburnt fuel within the boiler, which ignited
in an uncontrolled manner
A process is under way to address all the recommendations from the
report, and key learnings have been shared with other power stations.
Negotiations have started with a boiler supplier and once technical,
financial and commercial issues have been agreed, repair work
should begin in July 2015.

17

Load shedding stages have been amended to

create less impact for electricity consumers

In order to reduce the impact on customers and the complexity of managing

Stage 3 load shedding, Stage 3 has been adjusted down by 1 000MW.

Stage

Old schedules

New schedules

Stage 1

1 000 MW

1 000 MW

Stage 2

2 000 MW

2 000 MW

Stage 3

4 000 MW

3 000 MW

Contents

Introduction
Half-Year Performance
Winter Outlook
Build programme
Conclusion

Build programme shows progress and contributes

MWs to the grid
Medupi Power Station Project (6 x 800MW)
Up to 800 MW contributing to national grid even while unit 6 is still in

test phase /synchronisation mode)

1st Unit (unit 6) on track for commercialization - August 2015
Synchronization of second unit expected in 2017.

Kusile Power Station Project (6 x 800MW)

The project is making good progress
Synchronization of 1st Unit (Unit 1) expected at the end of the first half
of 2017

Ingula Pumped Storage Scheme Project (4 x 333MW)

Synchronization of 1st unit (Unit 3) has been revised to the first half of
2016

Project Sere (100MW)

Successfully commercialized on time and within budget
100 MW feeding to the national grid, when the wind blows.
20

Eskom needs to ensure capital is available to ensure

delivery of one Medupi and two Ingula units for FY16

xx

MW added to
the network
Post MYPD3

Commissioned in
early Feb 2015
Additional 100MW
added to the
network

First sync Mar

2015
Full stable power
by Jun 2015

100

800

Feb 2015
Sere Wind Farm

Mar 2015
Majuba
Recovery
1200

600MW from unit

3 gap solution in
Feb & 600MW
from Unit 4 in Mar
2015

Source: GCD, Team analysis

Unit 4 to be
commissioned Apr
2016

333

Aug 2015
Medupi Unit 6

Jan 2016
Ingula
Unit 3
333

Unit 3 to be
commissioned
Jan 2016

Mar 2016
Ingula Unit 4

May 2016
Ingula
Unit 2
333

Unit 2 to be
commissioned
May 2016

Unit 1 to be
commissioned
Aug 2016

Kusile 1 will be
commercially
operating Aug
2017

333

800

Jul 2016
Ingula Unit 1

Aug 2017
Kusile 1

2015/16
1 466 MW
Medupi x1 unit
Ingula x2 units
Total MW
5 532

Sep 2017
Medupi 5

2019/2020
Duvha 3
Recovery

800

500

Medupi 5
commercial
operation date is
Sep 2017

Duvha 3 will be
fully recovered in
2019/2020
This project falls
out of MYPD3
window
21

Eskom keeps the country informed

Eskom communicates via the national, regional and local media including social media
regarding its intention to load shed and during the process.
Load shedding information and schedules are available on Eskoms website for Eskom
customers
National and regional spokespersons continue to spread the message and share
additional information to provide information and clarity
Stakeholders and direct customers are informed predominantly via social media and text
messages and are able to communicate via Eskoms customer contact centres
The Power Alert on SABC and DSTV channels continues to provide real-time information
on the power system status and encourages customers to switch off.
- An average of 350MW reduction in demand is observed during this flighting

Eskom issues Power Alert system bulletins and holds a Quarterly system status media
briefing to provide regular updates

Face-to-face stakeholder engagements provide an opportunity for further dialogue on the

status
Electricity users are encouraged to follow Eskom on twitter and Facebook and to
download the free Eskom App Myeskom from Android and Apple stores.

We all can help to reduce demand and Beat the

Peak this winter
Saving electricity reduces pressure on the grid, cuts your
electricity bill and reduces South Africas carbon emissions

1. Use alternatives to electrical space heating

Dress for the weather, to postpone switching on space

heaters

Install ceiling insulation - an insulated room requires 51%

less energy to heat up

Invest in a thermostatically controlled heater - a fan heater

is ideal for quick heat situations, while an oil heater can be
considered to keep a room warm for longer periods

Consider gas heaters and hot water bottles to keep warm

2. Switch off all geysers and pool pumps (all day until
9pm), and invest in a timer
3. Switch off all non-essential lighting and appliances
4. Respond to Power Alert messages by switching off all
appliances that are not being used
23

Contents

Introduction
Half-Year Performance
Winter Outlook
Build programme
Conclusion

Conclusion: While the system is tight Eskom

endeavours to keep load shedding to a minimum
Eskom has continued to supply up to an average of 96% of electricity in the
country during the first half of 2015 and will continue to do so in Winter
Unlike in Summer when the load shedding risk is for longer periods throughout
the day, in Winter, the load shedding risk is for shorter periods and over the
peak periods of 06:00 to 10:00 and 17:00 to 22:00, as more electricity is used
during this time.
As the demand peaks in Winter, we anticipate that 100% electricity supply
during the day, and a minimum of 96% during the morning and evening peak
periods
We will continue with maintenance with the intent to do no or minimal load
shedding
We appreciate the support of all our customers and encourage that we maintain
10% electricity savings.
We are committed to provide early warning, however at times the system status
changes rapidly. Please follow us on twitter @Eskom_SA and
@Eskom_MediaDesk for updates.
25

Thank you