HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

HINTS AND SOLUTIONS OF DIFFICULT PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 5.

Exercise 5-1 (Page 224)
5-2
When two dice are tossed, there are 36 possible outcomes. Suppose X= sum of points in the two dice then the possible values
of X are 2, 3, 12. If (m,n) denote the point shown in 1 st and 2nd dice respectively then we have the following table.
x
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total

Favourable cases for X=x

(1,1)
(2,1) (1,2)
(1,3) (3,1) (2,2)
(1,4) (4,1) (2,3) (3,2)
(1,5) (5,1) (2,4) (4,2) (3,3)
(1,6) (6,1) (2,5) (5,2) (3,4) (4,3)
(2,6) (6,2) (3,5) (5,3) (4,4)
(3,6) (6,3) (4,5) (5,4)
(4,6) (6,4) (5,5)
(5,6) (6,5)
(6,6)

No. of favourable cases

1
2
3
4
5
6
5
4
3
2
1
36

P(X=x)
1/36
2/36
3/36
4/36
5/36
6/36
5/36
4/36
3/36
2/36
1/36
1

Now draw a graph by taking x along X-axis and P(X=x) along Y-axis.
Exercise 5-2 (page 229)
5-11 (Hint): First prepare a frequency distance of X= number of accidents per month. Then calculate relative frequencies and
expected number of monthly accidents.
5-14 (Hint): Separately prepare tables for X=no. lost from truck and Y=no. cost from airplane as in 5-11. Then calculate E(X) and
E(Y).
Exercise 5-3: (Page 235)
(in Profit and Loss tables always keep Stock along rows and Demands along columns)
Step 1:
While doing problems of this section students should develop skill for expressing the given problem in term of profit function. (In 3
different situations)
Profit = Total Revenue Total cost
when supply = Demand
Total profit = Profit per unit x Demand
when Supply>Demand
Total Profit = Selling price x Demand cost price x supply + (supply Demand) x salvage value (if given in problem)
When Supply<Demand
Total profit = selling price x supply cost price x supply goodwill loss per unit x (Demand Supply)
Step 2:
In the second step prepare conditional profit table always take stock along the rows and demand along the columns. Diagonal
entries will correspond to the situation when stock = Demand. Upper off diagonal and lower off diagonal entries will respectively
correspond to the situation when Stock < Demand and Stock> Demand.
Step3:
Prepare conditional loss table by subtracting each entries of a column from the maximum entry in that column.
Step 4:
Calculate expected loss for each value of stock. Make use of probability distribution of demand.
Step 5:
Draw conclusion based on step 4.

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HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

Exercise 5-4 Binomial Distribution (page 247)

5-22: X= no. of transmission having manufacturing defects
X~ B(n=10, p =0.02)
a)
b)

P(X>2) = 1- P(X 2) = 1- { P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)}

P(X=0)

5-23:X= no. of secretly employed people drawing unemployment checks

X~ B(n = 10, P =0.4)
a) P(X>8)
b) p(X=3)
5-25
X= no. of employees having 2 weeks of vacation time
Y= no. of employees having 1 week of vacation
Z= no. of employees having 3 or more weeks of vacation
From the question, it is clear that
X~B(n=20, p=0.45), Y~B(n=20, P=0.10), Z~B(n=20, P=0.20)
a) P(X=8)
b) P(Y=1)
c) P(Z 2)
d) P(Y 2)
5-26:
X=no. of customer who buy something during an specified hour
X~ B(n=15, p=0.3)
a)
b)
c)
d)

P(X 1)
P(X 4)
P(X=0)
P(X 4)

Exercise 5-5 (Poisson Distribution) page 255

5-31:
X= no. of coughs occurring just before her performance
X~P( = 8)
calculate P(X>5) = 1-P(X 5) which is the probability that she will refuse to play. She will play tonight if she hears at most five
coughs i.e. P(X 5)
5-32:
X=no. of time the specified employee rest in one hour
X~P( = 4.1)
He should move the employee to different job if P(3X>12) > 0.5 is P(X>4) >0.5
calculate P(X>4) =1-P(X 4) and make decision.
5-33:
X= no. of birds hitting Washington monument
X~P( =5), Funds will allocated if P(X>3) > 0.7
5-34: See 5-35
5-35:
X=no. of disputes of non-marital type
a) X~B(80, 0.04)
Here n 20 and P<0.05 so we can use Poisson distribution to approximate Binomial distribution in calculation of probabilities.
Here = np =80x 0.04 =3.2
P(X=7) =
b)

PAGE 2 OF 6

e 7
7!

P(X=0)

HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

5-36
X=no. of bills that are too flawed for circulation
X~ B(n=1000, p=0.005)
So use poisson approximation as in 5-35.
Exercise 5-6 (Normal Distribution) page 269 (Students Must Sketch the Normal curve and shade the desired area in
each problem of normal distribution)
5-39:
X=variable
X~N( , =5.0)
Given,
a) P(X>21)=0.14

21
) =0.14
5
21
or P(0<Z<
) =0.36 (1)
5
or P(Z>

From tables we have,

P(0< Z< 1.08) =0.3599 ..(2)
From (1) and (2) we conclude that

21
=1.08
5
15.6

Let p 4 =value below which 4% of obs. lines (4th percentile)

b)

P4 15.6
) =0.04
5
P 15.6
15.6 P4
or, P( 4
<Z<0) =0.46 or, P(0<Z<
) =0.46 (by symmetry)
5
5
we have, P(X< P4 ) = 0.04 or, P(Z<

from tables we have,

P(0<Z<1.75) =).4599 (2)
from (1) and (2) we have,

15.6 P4
= 1.75
5

P4 = 6.85

5-41: See 5-43

5-42:
X= diameter of drive shaft of a motor from inventory (in inches)
X~ N( =5.07", =0.07")
P(steel rod fitting the bearing) = P(5.o5 < x< 5.15)
5-43:
X=weekly demand of cartridges
=95, =?
a)

P(X 110) =1/4

P(Z
P(0

110 95

Z 15

) =0.25

) = 0.5 0.25 (1)

from tables we have,

P(0 Z 0.67) = 0.2486 ..(2)
P(0 Z 0.68 ) = 0.2517 (3)
from (1) and (2) and (3) we conclude,

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HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

15

b)

=0.675

=22.22

Let Xstock = required stock

P(X> Xstock) 0.2

Xstock 95
) 0.2
22.22
Xstock 95
P(0 < Z<
) 0.3 (1)
22.22
or, P(Z >

Now from table we have,

P(0<Z<0.84) =0.2995 (2)
Hence from (1) And (2) we conclude that,

Xstock 95
0.84
22.22

Xstock 114
He should stock at least 114 cartridges.
5-44
Let X= hourly flow in liters
Medical standard requires P(3.9 < X< 4.1) =0.80
Mr. Crowe's finding P(4.02 0.08 < X < 4.02 + 0.08) =0.68
Comparing this with P( - <X< + ) =0.6826
=0.08
we conclude that = 4.02
Now,
P(3.9 < X < 4.1) = P(-1.5 < Z < 1.0)
=P(0< Z < 1.5) + P( 0 < Z < 1)
=0.4332 + 0.3413 = 0.7745
This shows that for only 77.45% of time the machine is flowing within 0.1 liters of 4 liters. Hence the medical standards are not
satisfied.
5-48:
X= no. of people who come to the game
X~ N( =67000, =4000)
a)

b)

P(X>72000) = P(Z>1.25) =0.5 P(0<Z<1.25)

=0.5 0.3944
=0.1056
Calculation of Expected Harm
Outcome
Harm
X>72000
5000
X<72000
0

Probability
0.1056
1- 0.1056

Since expected Harm is very high than the cost of hiring two temporary employees,
5-50
X= sales for upcoming quarter (in $ millions)
X~N( =325, =60) Estimate I
X~N( =300, =50) Estimate II
a)

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350 300

P Z
P Z 0.42
50

0.5 P 0 Z 0.42 0.5 0.1628 0.3372

P( X 350 | Estimate I) =

Harm x prob.
528
0
Expected Harm=$528
Mr. poppin should definitely hire.

HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

350 300

P X 350 | EstimateII P Z
P Z 1
50

b)
0.5 P 0 Z 1 0.5 0.3413
0.1587
(c), (d) let E1 = estimate I is correct

E 2 = estimate II is correct
A=event that the sales will exceed $350m
Elementary Event
P Ej
P A| Ej

E1
E2

P AE j

P E j | A

0.5

0.3372

0.1686

0.68

0.5

0.1587

0.07935

0.32

P(A) = 0.24795
Given the updated information that, at the end of the quarter the board of directors found that corporation has had sales in
excess of $350 M, the probability that estimates I and II are originally the accurate ones and 0.68 and 0.32 respectively.
5.51

X = Height (in inches) of an adult American

73 6
Let h be the height of the door.
Then according to the objective set by the company.

P ( X h) 0.95

h 73

P Z
0.95
6

h 73

P
Z 0 0.45
6

73 h

p 0 Z
0.45 (by Symmetry) ------------(i)
6

From tables,

P 0 Z 1.64 0.4495 -----------(ii)

P 0 Z 1.65 0.4505 -----------(iii)

From (i), (ii) and (iii) we have

73 h
= 1.654
6
h 63.13

5.58

5.62
5.71

5-73

Review and application Exercise on Chapter 5

(Page 279)
X=no of cases handled
To calculate probability distribution of X proceed as in the 5-11. then calculate E(X). (This will come to be 5.4 cases). Now
since according to question, it takes 2 interns to research a case, the office should request 11 positions for interns in the
budget.
The Poisson approximation to Bionomial
X= Distance driven by an employee/ month
X~N( 5650 , 120 )
Calculate P(X<5500)
X= Mileage per gallon
(a) Calculate P(X>45) for both models choose the model which have higher probability
(b) Calculate P(X<39) for both models, reject the model which has higher probability

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HINTS AND SOLUTIONS IN CHAPTER 5

5-75 (Hint)
Let X = Current no. of accidents per week
Y = no of accidents after installing additional lighting (plan I)
Z = no of accidents after expansion of bike lanes (plan II)
The probability distribution of X, Y, Z are given calculate E(X), E(Y) and E(Z). They will come E(X) = 2.8, E(Y) = 2.2 and E(Z) = 1.95
(a)
(b)

The mayor should approve the plan to expand the no of bike lanes because the plan will reduce the expected no of
accidents than its alternative
P(X>3) = P(X=4) +P(X=5) =0.25
P(Y>3) = 0.15
P(Z>3) = 0.1
To minimize probability of more than 3 accidents, the mayor should approve plan 2.

P ( X 3) 0.65, P(Y 3) 0.40, P ( Z 3) 0.40

c)

To minimize probability of 3 or more accidents per week both plans are equally effective.
5.77

5.81

5.86

X = Smoke level (in ppm) required to activate the siren

X ~ N ( 320, 25)
(a) P ( X 82 4) P ( X 328)
(b) P ( X 82 3) P ( X 246)

Let X = no of pages in book

Calculate E(X) using the given probability distribution (this will come to 680 pages)
(a) No, Since E(X) = 680 pages
(b) Calculate new value of E(X) by merging the probability of 700 pages into 500. it will come to 755 pages
X = no of loans approved
(a) np 1460 0.8 1168

npq

233.6 15.3

b) Similar to (a)
5-88

Let X = no of registered votes willing to vote Krista's candidate

Now, Sample of 300 shoes that 34% or 34 3 = 102 will vote for her candidate
If 40% are allied to her then
np 120
X~B(300, p=0.4)
npq 72
As such
P ( X 102) P ( X 102.5) (applying continuity correction)

102.5 np
P Z

npq

102.5 120

P Z

8.5

P Z 2.06 P ( Z 2.06)

(by symmetry )

0.5 P (0 Z 2.06) 0.5 0.4803 0.0197

Had been there the support of 40% registered votes P X 102 should have come to a big value which is not so, so
the claim of having 40% support is not correct.

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