Sheet1

I want to know if it matters which side you start on in a game. I find a biased coin, that has a 90% chance of showing heads and 10% chance of showing tails.
W is event that steven wins the round
We flip the coin up to 4 times. Steven picks heads the first two rounds, I pick heads the second two rounds. L is event that steven loses the round

LLLL not allowed

LLLW not allowed
LLWL
LLWW
LWLL
LWLW
LWWL
LWWW
WLLL
WLLW
WLWL
WLWW
WWLL
WWLW
WWWL not allowed
WWWW not allowed

but some of these aren't allowed to happen because it's a best of 3 so the actual omega set is below but this doesn't actually matter because P(LLL)=P(LLLW)+P(LLLL) and P(WWW)=P(WWWL)+P(WWWW)
putting it in table form to make it easier to edit

LLL
LLWL
LLWW
LWLL
LWLW
LWWL
LWWW
WLLL
WLLW
WLWL
WLWW
WWLL
WWLW
WWW

1st round 2nd round 3rd round 4th round

L L L x harry wins
L L W L harry wins
L L W W
L W L L harry wins
L W L W
L W W L
L W W W steven wins
W L L L harry wins
W L L W
W L W L
W L W W steven wins
W W L L
W W L W steven wins
W W W x steven wins

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in the first 2 rounds L is tails, and W is heads, and in the last 2 rounds W is tails and L is heads

1st round 2nd round 3rd round 4th round this column is the probability of each event
0.1 0.1 0.9 1 0.009 harry wins 0.0090
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.0009 harry wins 0.0009
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0001
0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0729 harry wins 0.0729
0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0081
0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.0081
0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0009 steven wins 0.0009
0.9 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.0729 harry wins 0.0729
0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.0081
0.9 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.0081
0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0009 steven wins 0.0009
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6561
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0729 steven wins 0.0729
0.9 0.9 0.1 1 0.081 steven wins 0.081
RESULT 0.15570 0.15570
tails tails heads 1 harry wins
tails tails tails heads harry wins
tails tails tails tails
tails heads heads heads harry wins
tails heads heads tails
tails heads tails heads
tails heads tails tails steven wins
heads tails heads heads harry wins
heads tails heads tails
heads tails tails heads
heads tails tails tails steven wins
heads heads heads heads
heads heads heads tails steven wins
heads heads tails 1 steven wins

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