PROBABILITY

Contents
1. Introduction and basic terminology
2. Conditional Probability
3. Total Probability Rule
4. Independent events
5. Bayes Rule
6. Binomial distribution
 Introduction

Probability is the degree of likeliness of the happening of an event , which

has multiple outcomes .

Random Experiment

A random experiment refers to an unbiased action whose result is not certain.

Eg- Daily life examples:
1. Coin Toss :

Heads as well as tails are equally likely to happen ,so we say :

P(H)=P(T)= 1/2
2. Dice Roll:
All numbers on a dice are equally likely to occur on a fair roll.
So, probability of each number occurring on upper face is 1/6.
Sample Space
All the possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample
space.
Eg- For coin toss : S = { H,T }
For dice roll : S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }
Sample Point
One of the elements of the Sample Space is called a sample point.
Eg- In coin toss H or T
In dice roll any number from 1 to 6

Event

Result of a single random experiment is called an event.

Probability of an event
If all possible outcomes of a random experiment are exhaustive ,
mutually exclusive and equally likely ,then :
Probability of occurrence of an event A
= Favorable outcomes / Total outcomes
= n(A) /n(S)
Properties of Probability
1. Cannot be negative.
2. 0 <= P (Any event) <= 1
3. P ( Event not occurring ) = 1 P ( Event occurring)

Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is used to calculate probability of events when
they are dependent on each other.
The above Venn diagram clearly explains the idea of conditional
probability.

Total Probability Rule

Let Bi ( i = 1 to n )be pairwise mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Let A be an event.

This rule is based on the simple idea that if an event (A) happens , then
it should occur with any of the events which are exhaustive.
It can also be written as :
Independent Events
2 events are said to be independent if :
P(A|B)=P(A)
It means that occurrence of A is does not depend on the occurrence /
non- occurrence of event B.
Eg Occurrence of a head in a coin toss and any specific number on the
upper face of a die in a roll are independent events

Difference between Independent and Mutually Exclusive

Events
Independent events are events which do not depend on each other but
can occur simultaneously.
Mutually exclusive events are events which cannot happen at the same
time.
Eg Outcome of coin tossing and dice rolling is independent as both
outcomes can occur at same time but occurrence of heads and tails are
2 mutually exclusive events as both cant occur at same time.

Bayes Rule
Conditions for applying Bayes formula are :
Priori events i.e. A1, A2, ......., An of the sample space are exhaustive and mutually
exclusive i.e.
A1 U A2 U ........... U An = S
and Ai Aj = j, i = 1, 2, ........ n and i j
Within the sample space there would exist an event B such that P (B)>0.
The main aim is to compute a conditional probability of the form P (Ai /B) .
We know that at least one of the two sets of the two probabilities are given
below:
(i) P(Ai B) for each Ai
(ii) P(Ai) and P(B/Ai) for each Ai

Derivation
Let A1, A2, ............, An be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and A be any
event in sample space, then
B = (B A1) U (B A2) U ......... (B An)
=> P(B) = P(B A1) + P(B A2) + P(B A3) ........+ P(B An)
= P(A1).P(B/A1) + P(A2).P(B/A2) +.........+ P(An).P(B/An)
Hence, P(Aj /B) = = (P(Aj ).P(B/Aj) )/(n(i=1) P(Ai ).P(B/Ai))
In simple terms
P ( Ai|B ) = P ( Ai B ) / P ( B )
Where P ( B ) is calculated by T P Rule.

Note :
The information that event B has happened does not mean its
probability is 1 or anything of this sort.
Note : If in a problem some event has already happened and then the probability
of another event is to be found, it is an application of Bayes Theorem. To recognize
the question in which Bayes theorem is to be used, the key word is is found to
be".
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution is applied to experiments where there are
only 2 possible outcomes for each experiment.
The following are the requirements of random eperiment for applying
Binomial distribution :
1: The number of observations n is fixed.
2: Each observation is independent.
3: Each observation represents one of two outcomes ("success" or
"failure").
4: The probability of "success" p is the same for each outcome.

Mean = n * p
Variance = n * p * q

Let probability of required event (success) taking place is p.

q = probability of failure
So p + q = 1
The probability of exactly k successes out of total n trials :
Pk = nCk * qn-k * pk
Derivation
Success can take place at any k of total n trials , where order is
not important . Ways to select such places is nCk
Success has to take place at each of these k places
independently of each other.
By definition of independent events ,
Probability corresponding to this = p * p * p * . K times = pk
These k successes have to accompanied simultaneously by n-k
failures , whose probability can be calculated to be qn-k by the
same logic .
These all things happen together , thus the probability is the
multiplication of all probabilities and number of ways .
Pk = nCk * qn-k * pk
Solved examples :
1. Illustration:
In a factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 15%, 25% and 60% of the total
production of bolts respectively. Of the bolts manufactured by the machine A, B
and C 4%, 2% and 3% are defective A bolt is drawn at random and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it was produced by B?
Solution:
In the formula P(Ak/A) = (P(Ak )P(A/Ak))/(n(i=1) P(Ai ).P(A/Ai))
Ai means all the possibilities, which can happen w.r.t. to the given event A, while
Ak means the particular event whose probability w.r.t. the event B we are required
to find
Let us take A = the event of bolt being defective.
A1 = the bolt is produced by B.
A2 = the bolt is produced by A.
A3 = the bolt is produced C.
Required probability = P(A1/A)=(P(A1 )P(A/A1))/(3(i=1) P(Ai ).P(A/Ai))
=>P(A1/A) =(25/1002/100)/((15/1004/100)+(25/1002/100)+(60/1003/100))
= 50/(60+50+180)=5/29.