Operations

DR/Ma

elsafy abd
Answer 1
a. Compute the labor productivity for each of the weeks.

Week Crew Yards

Size Installe productivity=Yards Installed/Crew Size per week
d
1 4 96 24
2 3 72 24
3 4 92 23
4 2 50 25
5 3 69 23
6 2 52 26

b. On the basis of your calculations, what can you conclude about crew size and productivity

Week Crew Yards

Size Installe productivity=Yards Installed/Crew Size per week
d
1 4 96 24
2 3 72 24
3 4 92 23
4 2 50 25
5 3 69 23
6 2 52 26

Output
worker cost = output units*workers*hourcost*hours
Week (units) Workers worker cost = output units*workers*hourcost*hours

1 ### 6 2880
2 ### 7 3360
3 ### 7 3360
4 ### 8 3840

Answer 3
A)
Day Blueberry
Muffins Chart T
1 30
2 34 40

3 32 35
4 34
30
5 35
6 30 25

7 34 20
8 36
9 29 15
10 31
10
11 35
12 31 5
13 37
14 34 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
15 33
495
33

Day Cinnamon
Buns
Chart T
1 18
2 17 35
3 19
30
4 19
25

20
 35

30

5 22 25
6 23
7 23 20

8 25
15
9 24
10 26 10
11 27
12 28 5
13 29
14 31 0
15 33 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Day Cupc
akes
1 45 Chart T
2 26
60
3 27
4 23
50
5 22

6 48 40

7 29
30
8 20

9 14
20
10 18
11 47
10
12 26
13 27
14 24 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
15 22

Day Blueberry Cinna Cupcakes

Muffins mon
Buns
1 30 18 45
2 34 17 26
3 32 19 27
4 34 19 23
 5 35 22 22
6 30 23 48
7 34 23 29
8 36 25 20
9 29 24 14
10 31 26 18
11 35 27 47
12 31 28 26
13 37 29 27
14 34 31 24
15 33 33 22
A)
Month Sales (000
units) Chart Tit
Feb. 19
25
Mar. 18 20
Apr. 15 15
May 20 10
Jun. 18 5
Jul. 22 0
Aug. 20 Feb. Mar. Apr. May

B):1 A linear trend equation.

T Y TY T^2
1 19 19 1
2 18 36 4
3 15 45 9
4 20 80 16
5 18 90 25
6 22 132 36
7 20 140 49
28 132 542 140
B):2 A five-month moving average.

F8=15+20+18+22+20/5= 19

B):3 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19(000).

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Ft = forecast for period t
Ft-1 = forecast for the previous period
= smoothing constant
At-1 = actual data for the previous period

F April=Fmarch+0.2(Amarch-Fmarch)
F April=19+0.2(18-19)=19-0.2=18.8
Fmay=18.8+0.2(15-18.8)=18.8-0.2*3.8=18.04
Fjune=18.04+0.2(20-18.04)=18.04+0.2*1.96=18.432
Fjuly=18.432+0.2(18-18.432)=18.432-0.2*0.432=18.3456
Faug=18.3456+0.2(22-18.3456)=18.3456+3.65=19.07
Fsep=19.07+0.2(20-19.07)=19.07+0.2*0.93=19.256
B):4 The naive approach
Month Sales naive
(000
units)
Feb. 19
Mar. 18 19
Apr. 15 18
May 20 15
Jun. 18 20
Jul. 22 18
Aug. 20 22
sep 20

Fsep=20

B):5 A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June

WA=wt*At+w(t-1)*A(t-1)+w(t-2)*A(t-2)
WA=0.6*20+0.3*22+0.1*18=20.4
Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint: Refer to the plot from
c): part a.)
trend method y=16.86+0.5t

A)
Observation x y
 1 15 74
2 25 80
3 40 84
4 32 81
5 51 96 Observation
6 47 95 x
7 30 83 y
8 18 78
9 14 70
10 15 72
11 22 85
12 24 88
13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6
13 33 90
 B) Obtain a linear regression line for the data

Y=a+Bx

b= nxy-xy
nx^2-(x)^2

a=y/n-b x/n
Observation x y xy

1 15 74 1110
2 25 80 2000
3 40 84 3360
4 32 81 2592
5 51 96 4896
6 47 95 4465
7 30 83 2490
8 18 78 1404
9 14 70 980
10 15 72 1080
11 22 85 1870
12 24 88 2112
13 33 90 2970
31329
366 1076
c) What percentage of the variation is explained by the regression line=0.32

Use the equation determined in part b to predict the expected value of y for x=41
D)
y=73.8+0.32x
at x=41 Y=73.8+0.32*41
y=86.92
rations Management
DR/Magdy khalaf

fy abdelhamid elsafy
 Answer 2
tota
overhead cost=1.5*worker Material
material cost=6*material l
cost (pound)
cost
 tota
overhead cost=1.5*worker Material
material cost=6*material l
cost (pound)
cost
4320 450 2700 9900
5040 470 2820 ###
5040 460 2760 ###
5760 480 2880 ###
 Chart Title

AVERAGE=498/15=33
Blueberry Muffins

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Chart Title

Cinnamon Buns
 Cinnamon Buns

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Chart Title

Cupcakes

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

50

40

30 Blueberry Muffins
Cinnamon Buns
Cupcakes
40

30 Blueberry Muffins
Cinnamon Buns
Cupcakes
20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Answer 4

Chart Title

Sales (000 units)

May Jun. Jul. Aug.

Y=a+bt
b=n*sum ty-sum t*sum y/n*sum t^2-(sum t)^2
n=7 sum t= 28 sum y= 132 sum
b=7*542-(28*132)/7*140 3794 3696 98
b=.5 0.5
a=y^-b t^ a= sum y/n-b sum t/n
sum y/n=18.86 b=0.5 sum t/n=4 4
a=18.86-.0.5*4 16.86=17
y=16.86+0.5t t=8 y=16.86+0.5*8=20.86
of 19(000).
 20.4

Y=16.86+0.5*4=18.86
Answer 5

120

100

80
 120

100

80

60

40

20

0
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
x^2

225 xy=31329
625 xy=366*1076=399816
1600 x^2=12078
1024 (x)^2=366^2=133956
2601
2209 b= nxy-xy 13*31329-399816
900 nx^2-(x)^2 13*12078-133956
324
196
225 b=032
484
576 a=1076/13-0.32*366/13
1089
12078 a=73.76

y=73.8+0.32x
 multifactor
productivity measure
=output units/total
cost
 multifactor
productivity measure
=output units/total
cost
3.03
2.99
2.89
2.84
 TOTAL =495

NO=15

AVERAGE=498/15=33
ry Muffins

TREND INCREASE BY 2

NEXT VALUE= 33+2=35

mon Buns
mon Buns
 SEASONAL VARIATION

DAY 1=45
DAY 2=48
DAY 11=47
Cupcakes NEXT VALUE
DAY 16= 47+3=50

Blueberry Muffins
Cinnamon Buns
Cupcakes
 Blueberry Muffins
Cinnamon Buns
Cupcakes

5
sum t^2=140 (sum t)^2=784
980 784 196
13*31329-399816 7461
0.32
13*12078-133956 23058