Frazier Johnson Yakey 1

So You Think You Got What It Takes

Players of all ages will flock around this game because it relates to all of them. This game

will take you through the wild journey of you as an excellent student athlete that wants to make it

to the pros. The stages of the game will tell what happens to the player as they try to make it to

the big league. Young kids will want to play because every kid aspires to be a famous athlete.

Older people will want to play this to relive at what their lives could have been and what will

happen to their kids. This will appeal greatly to customers but also make the owner happy

because of its clever method of raising money.

Description, Rules, and Directions

So You Think You Have What it Takes is a completely fair game of chance requiring

absolutely no skill. The game puts the player into the shoes of an athletic standout and only costs

two dollars per play. In addition, with this two dollars the player will have the opportunity to win

the grand prize of 10 dollars and fulfilling a professional athletic career. They also have the

opportunity to win money along the way by getting scholarships to go to college. The first stage

is a simple spinner that the player spins once in hopes that they land on one of the many winning

tiles. The first stage simulates the outcome of the players high school career by giving you the

opportunity to play in college. If they land on one of the few tiles, they will proceed to the

second stage that contains a locked box. In the second stage, the player has the opportunity to

pick an envelope out of a box and try to use the key inside it to unlock the locked box. If the

player selects the correct envelope, then they win 10 dollars because they made it to the pros.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 2

Figure 1. Game Setup.

Figure 1 above shows the setup of the game. The player begins the game by paying and

then spinning the spinner. To spin the spinner, the player will spin the inside wheel to make the

ball spin around in circles. Wait until the spinner slows down and the ball settles down in one of

the spots. If the spot it lands on is a multiple of 5 (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, or 35), they are able to

move on to the next stage of the game because they made it into a division one school. If the spot

is red, then they will receive one dollar back because they got scholarships to play at a division 3

school. If the spot the ball lands on is both red and a multiple of five, then the player will receive

a dollar and proceed to the next stage because they got scholarships to play D1. However, if the

spot does not fit any of the previous criteria, then the player loses and can play again if they want

to.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 3

Figure 2. Second Stage.

Figure 2 above, illustrates the setup of the second stage. If the player successfully passes

the first stage, they will move on to stage two, the locked box (draft night). The player will

shuffle a box containing 16 envelopes and draw one when the envelopes are sufficiently shuffled.

They will then pull out the key inside of it and try to unlock the box; if it fits, then the player

wins and they made it to the pros, but if it does not fit then the player loses.

Theoretical Probability I

This section will explore the probabilities of advancing to higher stages and the

possibility of earning invested money back. In the first stage there are 38 different spots that a

player can land on, and out of these 38 spots, only seven allow them to move on to a division 1

school (the next stage). Another aspect is that if the ball lands on a red spot, the player receives a

dollar back because they got scholarships to a Division 3 school. Finally, three of the 38 spots are

red and a multiple of 5, which grants the player one dollar and procession to a Division 1 school.

However, if the spot is only red, then the player must settle for a scholarship at a lower level

(they receive one dollar back and game is over).

 Frazier Johnson Yakey 4

P(multiple of a 5) = 7/38 = 0.1842

P(red number) = 18/38 = 0.4737
P(red number not a multiple of 5) = 15/38 = 0.3947
P(multiple of 5 red) = 3/38 = 0.0790
P(multiple of five not a red) = 5/38 = 0.131
P(not a multiple of 5)= 31/38 = 0.8159
P(not a multiple of 5 not a red) = 16/38 = 0.4211

Figure 3. Probabilities of the First Stage.

Above in figure 3 is the probability of getting a winning value as well as a losing value.

What each probability represents is mentioned within the parentheses after P. The first row

shows the probability of getting a multiple of five on the spinner, the second shows the

probability of a red number, etc. Using the above numbers, the probability of someone not

moving on to the next round and not getting any money back was figured out to be

approximately 0.4211. This value is very important to know as the owner of the game because

over 40% of the time the owner will gain that two dollars the player spent to play. However, the

players will keep wanting to play because they have a higher probability of getting a dollar back

than losing their two dollars at a probability value of 0.4737, but even with this chance, the

owner still has a very large bottom line.

The probability of proceeding to stage two was calculated to be approximately 0.2632,

which is a decent amount of people. These few will pick one envelope out of 16 where only one

will contain the key necessary to open the box.

P(picking the right key) = 1/16 = 0.0625

Figure 4. Probabilities of Stage Two.

In figure 4 above, it shows that the player has a probability of 0.0625 ( 6%) to select the

correct key from the lot of 16. This gives the owner of the game a very powerful advantage

because of that 30% who made it, they must now face a slim chance. To show this phenomenon,
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 5

the following is an in-depth analysis of the probabilities of the whole game, which can also be

referred to as the sample space.

[00,0,1,2,3,4,5a,5b,5c,5d,5e,5f,5g,5h,5i,5j,5k,5l,5m,5n,5o,5p,6,7,8,9,10a,10b,10c,10d,10e,10f,
10g,10h,10i,10j,10k,10l,10m,10n,10o,10p,11,12,13,14,15a,15b,15c,15d,154e,15f,15g,15h,15i,
15j,15k,15l,15m,15n,15o,15p,16,17,18,19,20a,20b,20c,20d,20e,20f,20g,20h,20i,20j,20k,20l,20m
,20n,20o,20p,21,22,23,24,25a,25b,25c,25d,25e,25f,25g,25h,25i,25j,25k,25l,25m,25n,25o,25p,26
,27,28,29,30a,30b,30c,30d,30e,30f,30g,30h,30i,30j,30k,30l,30m,30n,30o,30p,31,32,33,34,35a,
35b,35c,35d,35e,35f,35g,35h,35i,35j,35k,35l,35m,35n,35o,35p,36]

Figure 5. Sample Space.

Above shows the sample space of the game. The spins are labeled with their respective

number and the keys are lettered a-p where a is the winning key. All the black combinations

above are the different possibilities that people play the first round, get nothing, and lose. The red

combinations are the outcomes in where people only get the extra dollar back. The blue ones are

the results where the people win the game but do not get the extra dollar back. Finally, the pink

ones are the outcomes where the player gets a dollar back and ends up winning. It can easily be

seen that there are more times where the owner will make money instead of the player.

Figure 6. Tree Diagram.

Figure 6 above, shows the tree diagram with the probabilities of each outcome. This

accounts for all of the sample space. The top row is the blue and the black with letters. The win

in this row are the blue and the lose is the black with letters. The next row down is the reds
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 6

without letters. The one after that is the red with letters and the pink. The win are the pink

combinations and the lose is the red with letters. The last row is all of the black numbers

without a letter.

P(winning the game) = 7/143 = 0.0490

P(winning the game receiving a dollar back) = 3/143 = 0.0210
P(winning the game not getting a dollar back) = 5/143 = 0.0350
P(losing)= 136/143 = 0.9510

Figure 7. Game Overview Probabilities.

As seen in figure 7 above, the probability of the owner winning instead of the player is a

huge difference. The probability of the player winning is approximately 0.0490 ( 5%). Because

of this, the owner would win a substantial percent of the time. What will be explored next, is that

the money this game is supposed to make, only helps its case.

Part III. Theoretical Probability II

The following section will show how much money this game is expected to earn per play;

this is the expected value. The expected value is a simple calculation that can be done to find

how much money the player can expect to win or lose per play. A probability distribution chart

for this concept is shown below from the perspective of the player.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 7

Table 1
Expected Value
$ -$2 $8 -$1 $9

P($) 76/143 5/143 60/143 2/143

Table 1, above, shows the probability distribution table. It has the probability that the

outcome is going to happen and what will the player receive based on that outcome. The

probabilities were found above in figure 7. The first one is the probability that the player loses

and does not get the extra dollar. The second one is if they win the game but do not receive the

extra dollar. The third is the chances that the player gets the dollar but does not win. The last

column is the probability that the player gets the extra dollar and also wins.

E($) = -2(76/143) + 8(5/143) + (-1(60/143)) + 9(2/143)

E($) = -14/13 = -$1.08

Figure 8. Calculating Expected Value.

The figure above shows the formula used to find the predicted value. The probability

would be multiplied by the money the player would lose or gain to find the average amount of

money gained per play. Based on the calculations done, the player will lose $1.08 on average for

every play, which also means that the owner will gain on average $1.08 per play. This concept

will be simulated in the next part.

Relative frequency
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 8

This section is all about running simulations to estimate the income of the owner based

off the number of times the game is run. There will be three different simulations to calculate in

different ways. First is a small number of trials by hand, the second is a larger number of trials

done by excel, and the last simulation will take a large number of trials and calculate in Java.

Table 2
Simulation by Hand

In table 2 above are the results of the game being played 50 times by hand. The first

column is the trial number (one to fifty), the second column is the number that was spun (00, 0-

36), and the last column is the key that was drawn (a-p where a is the winning key).These trials

had a similar results to that what was predicted. These trials had a 0.04 chance of winning the

prize where the predicted was 0.049. Although, there were 18 reds out of the 50 trials, which is a

probability of 0.36 compared to the 0.4737 predicted.

 Frazier Johnson Yakey 9

Figure 9. Formula to Calculate Income.

The formula in figure 9 above is used to calculate the average money made per play. It

takes the number of plays (50) multiplied by the cost per play ($2) to find how much was given

to the owner. Then the number of reds would be subtracted because a dollar was given back to

the player. Then to calculate the amount of money that was won by the players, the amount per

prize is multiplied by the number of times someone won. When the money made is subtracted

from how much the player wins, the income for that simulation is acquired.

Income = ((50*2)-18)-(10(2))
Income = 88 - 20
Income = $68

Figure 10. Calculating Income for First Simulation.

Figure 10, shows the numbers plugged into the formula given in figure 9. The income

made in simulation one is $68. The money made per play for simulation one is $1.36. This is

$0.28 higher than the predicted amount.

The next simulation was done in excel and was used to do larger number of trials in a

faster manner. The next simulation did 500 trials, and here is how it was done.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 10

Figure 11. Excel Basic Overview.

Figure 11, above shows an image from excel taken of running 500 trials of the game. This

image is just 12 of the 500 trials that were actually ran. The first column of the chart is a

randomizer that picks a number 0-37. This is used to simulate the spinning of the wheel where 0-

36 are their respective numbers and 37 is 00. The second column is saying if the spin in

column one was a red. If it was a red, it was marked by a one, if not, it went in as a 0. The third

column was only done if the first column was a multiple of five. If it was not, it was put in as a

zero. If it was a multiple of five, then it generated a random number 1-16 to simulate the drawing

of the envelopes. If the third column has a 1 for the envelope drawn, then the fourth column gets

a 1 because that person won. See appendix B for step for step instructions.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 11

Figure 12. Simulation Two Totals.

Figure 12, above, shows the totals that were accumulated throughout the games 500

trials. Totals for the number of reds spun and the total number of wins are calculated on the

bottom of the chart by adding the numbers above. That is why ones and zeros were used.

Table 2
Results of 500 Trials
Lose (-$2) Red (-$1) Win ($8) Special win ($9)

243 252 3 2

Table 2, above, shows the results of running a 500 trial simulation of the game in excel.

There were 243 times that people did not get anything when they played. That is roughly 49% of

the time the owner makes $2. Also 252 times the player only got a dollar back. People only won

the prize 5 out of 500 times or 1% of the time.

Profit = -1(-2(243) + (-1(252)) +8(3) +9(2))

Profit = $696
Average profit per play = 696/500 = $1.39

Figure 13. Simulation Two Profits.

Figure 13, shows the profit made by using the formula from figure 9. The income

estimated using simulation two is $696. This means that the average profit per play is $1.39. This

is $0.31 higher than the predicted profit found in figure 8.

 Frazier Johnson Yakey 12

Table 3
Simulation of 5000 trials
Lose (-$2) Red (-$1) Win ($8) Special win ($9)

2672 2270 43 15

Table 3, above, shows the results of running a 5000 trial experiment using java. There are

2672 times that when a person plays, they will not win anything and the owner would get $2.

That is over 50% of the time. The player only won around 1% of the time, while the owner wins

almost 99% of the time

Profit =-1(-2(2672) + (-1(2270)) +8(43) +9(15)

Profit = $7135
Average profit per play = 7135/5000 = $1.43

Figure 14. Calculating Income of Simulation Three.

Above in figure 14, the expected value is calculated to find that when 5000 trials were

run, the owner would make $7135. The average profit per play is $1.43, which is even higher

than the 500 trial and the predicted profit.

 Frazier Johnson Yakey 13

Figure 15. 5000 Trials Results.

Figure 15, above, shows the results from running the java program, found at appendix A,

at 5000 trials. This program was started by defining the variables, then to simulate the spin of the

wheel it randomly produced a number between 0 and 37. If the number is a multiple of five it

will generate another random number, but this time only 1-16. This is to simulate the drawing of

an envelope. If the envelope is a 1 then it is a win and the program will add a value of one into

the variable of win. If the spin is a red then it adds the value 1 to the variable red. To find the

income, the formula from figure 9 was used.

The three trials that were run were all different and they all had their positives. First off,

the trials done by hand are great for samples of small numbers. They play in every little detail

that may be too small to calculate in the programs; however, a problem arises when large

samples need to be calculated, which would take a monumental amount of time to do. This is

where a program would come in handy. The programs do not factor in the smallest details but are

close enough to get accurate results. In addition to the programs being able to handle many trials,

they are also very quick to give results. The excel document was good for producing mid-sized

numbers but took a little while to make the program itself, making it less efficient. The Java

program was great for extremely large numbers. It was also helpful for the picking of the prices

for things because it was easy to change the value of things like that. So, the trials by hand are

more accurate but hard to do with large numbers, and that is where the programs helped.

Summary

Overall, So You Think You Have What it Takes is an entertaining game for a wide

range of ages as well as a great money maker for the owner. The beginning stage with the spinner
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 14

has many different outcomes that helps get the player into the game, but gets more compact as

the player proceeds to the second stage. The players become easily enamored with the idea of the

story and that they can win a prize of such a substantial value as well as win some of their money

back on the way, for only two dollars. Because the players have almost a 50% chance of getting a

dollar back ( 0.4737) they feel like the game is not as big of a risk. If the player gets a dollar

back, they feel the need to try again because they have to use the extra dollar they just got back.

In order to play again they have to reach into their pockets to pair it with another dollar. The

player is given a sense of false victory because they thought they won something in reality they

lost a dollar.

This group worked very well together to come up with this brilliant idea. Nathan worked

on the probabilities, made prizes for the game, made the tree diagram and did two of the

simulations. Richard worked on one of the simulations, wrote the beginning of the paper with the

intro and description of the game, and constructed the game. Lastly Griffin wrote most of the

summary, was the bright mind behind the ideas of the stages, and helped talk through the story

behind the instructions.

At first glance, this probability may seem high and may give the impression that the

player has a very large chance of getting a dollar back, but after calculating the expected value

and running different simulations, a different picture emerges. The player is predicted to lose

around $1.08 to $1.43 per play and that goes directly into the owners pocket. With enough

plays, this can add up to a grand total that leaves the owner with a smile.
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 15

Appendix A
import TerminalIO.KeyboardReader;
import java.text.DecimalFormat;
class Ex2Jan26{
public static void main(String args[]){

KeyboardReader reader = new KeyboardReader();

DecimalFormat twoDecimal = new DecimalFormat("0.00");

int i=0, spin, key, win = 0, red =0, specialWin = 0;

double income;
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 16

//change the variables below to your liking

double costPP = 2, costPrize = 10;
int plays = 5000;//number of plays
do{
i=i+1;

//System.out.print(i+"\t");

spin = ((int)(39*Math.random()));
//if(spin == 38)System.out.println("00");
//else System.out.println(spin);
if(spin==1||spin==3||spin==5||spin==7||spin==9||spin==12||spin==14||spin==16||
spin==18||spin==19||spin==21||spin==23||spin==25||spin==27||spin==30||spin==32||spin==34||
spin==36){
red=red+1;
}
if(spin == 10 || spin==15|| spin==20|| spin==25|| spin==30|| spin==35){
//System.out.println("\t"+"you get to move on");
key = ((int)(17*Math.random()));
//if(key == 0)System.out.println("\t"+"16"+"\t");
//else System.out.println("\t"+key+"\t");
if((spin ==5&&key==1) || (spin==25&&key==1)||(spin==30&&key==1)){
specialWin=specialWin+1;
}
if((key == 1&&spin!=5)||(key==1&&spin!=25)||(key==1&&spin!=35)){
//System.out.println("\t"+"YOU WIN");
win=win+1;
}
//System.out.println("");
}

}while(i<plays);

System.out.println("number of wins: "+win);

System.out.println("number of reds: "+ (red-specialWin));

System.out.println("number of special Wins: "+specialWin);

income=((plays*costPP)-red)-(costPrize*(win+specialWin));

System.out.println("you gain $"+income);

System.out.println("on average, you gain: $"+ twoDecimal.format(income/plays) +" per

play");
}
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 17

Appendix B

1. In excel create a table labeled like below

2. In the first column, to create a random number to simulate a spin with the wheel, use the

function: =ROUND(37*RAND(),0)
 Frazier Johnson Yakey 18

3. The second column is to see if there are any spins from the first column that are reds. If

it was a red it would appear as a 1, if not, a 0. To do this use the function:

=IF(B3=1,1,IF(B3=3,1,IF(B3=5,1,IF(B3=7,1,IF(B3=9,1,IF(B3=12,1,IF(B3=14,1,IF(B3=16,1,

IF(B3=18,1,IF(B3=19,1,IF(B3=21,1,IF(B3=23,1,IF(B3=25,1,IF(B3=27,1,IF(B3=30,1,IF(B3=

32,1,IF(B3=34,1,IF(B3=36,1,0))))))))))))))))))

4. The third column is used to simulate what key they drew. They could only draw a card if

they spun a multiple of five. To do this use:

=IF(B3=5,ROUND(16*RAND(),0),IF(B3=10,ROUND(16*RAND(),0),IF(B3=15,ROUND(16*

RAND(),0),IF(B3=20,ROUND(16*RAND(),0),IF(B3=25,ROUND(16*RAND(),0),IF(B3=30,R

OUND(16*RAND(),0),IF(B3=35,ROUND(16*RAND(),0),0)))))))

5. The fourth column is to calculate if they won or not. In order to win, they would have to

draw the 1 key in the third column. If they won a one will appear if they did not win a 0 would

appear. To calculate this use: =IF(D3=1,1,0)

6. The last column is to see if there were any special winners where they spun a red and still

won. In order to do this the red column had to have a red and the win column had to have a 1

also. The formula to use: =IF(AND(C3=1,E3=1),1,0)

7. At the bottom, add a total row to make the adding easier. This just takes the sum of the

numbers above it. Because the wins include the ones with the special red wins, subtract the last

column from the win column total: =SUM(E3:E103)-F104

8. You can make the table as long as desired but if you dont want to make it as long you

can just use f 9 to re-randomize the numbers.

Frazier Johnson Yakey 19