Cloudy With a Probability of Meatballs

Rogina Hanna, Alyssa Mularski & Dylan Taipalus

Mrs. Dewey

Functions Statistics and Trigonometry

21 March 2017

Cloudy With a Probability of Meatballs

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The heart of any carnival is the variety of games that it contains. An owner of a local

carnival realized the importance of new and creative games and asked a few builders to help her

out with creating a game as a new addition to the carnival. The builders were asked to create a

game that involved no skill required from the player and a profit for the carnival owner.

I. Description, Rules & Directions:

Since the builders were required to create a game that involved no skill, a lot of

brainstorming was done to plan the perfect game with results that could only occur by chance

alone. It was finally decided to build a game that involved a spinner and a plinko board and costs

two dollars to play. A disc is used to play the plinko board game and is dropped into one of the

(#) holes at the bottom of the board through a labyrinth of pegs changing the route of the disc.

Each landing hole is labeled with the amount of money earned by the player when the disc is

dropped into that specific hole. These winning amounts are $2.00, $1.50, and $0.50 without any

multipliers.

Figure 1. The Spinner

The spinner shown in Figure 1 consists of three x1 multipliers, two x2 multipliers, and

one x3 multiplier, and the player flicks the spinner to find the multiplier that the arm lands on,

which indicates whether the amount of money won by the disc drop will double, triple, or just

stay the same.

The disc must be dropped into the single hole right above the board in order for the round

to be legal and fair. It cannot be placed in the middle of the board, for example, as an advantage
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to the player, and it cannot be dropped higher than the opening of the board at the top to the

operator’s advantage.

II. Theoretical Probability I:

There are many methods to analyze a game, and finding the probability of winning is one

of them. Since there are different paths and outcomes, it was crucial to consider every aspect of

the game as the owner in order to obtain the correct probability to the benefit of the carnival.

Figure 2. The Plinko Board

The basic structure of a plinko board and its pegs are shown in Figure 1. The slots are at

the bottom for the disc to land in. Since there are many paths to get to one slot, the sample space

would be extremely long, but it is easy to say that the sample space consists of all possible paths

from the top hole to any of the seven bottom slots.

The first step to finding the probability of the game is by finding the probability of the

plinko disk landing in each of the seven slots, given that there are six rows of pegs. The first step

to doing this is to find the amount of ways it is possible for the plinko disk to land in that

particular slot, which can easily be found using Pascal’s triangle. For example, if the number of
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ways that the disk can land in the third slot needs to be known, all that would have to be done is

plug 6C3 (6th row 3rd term of the triangle) into a calculator. The calculator will read fifteen.

Step two to finding the probability of the disk landing in a particular slot: Now that the

number of paths are known for that slot, the number of paths is multiplied by 0.50 to the power

of how many rows of pegs there are. This is because every peg gives the disk a 50/50 chance of

it going left or right. Since the disk goes through six rows of pegs, 0.50 has to be multiplied by

itself six times. Continuing with the prior example of the third slot; fifteen would be multiplied

by 0.506. This gives a final probability for the third slot; .2344.

P(slot) = (paths) 0.50(row of pegs)

P(slot1) = (1) 0.50(6) = 0.0156

P(slot2) = (6) 0.50(6) = 0.0938
P(slot3) = (15) 0.50(6) = 0.2344
P(slot4) = (20) 0.50(6) = 0.3125
P(slot5) = (15) 0.50(6) = 0.2344
P(slot6) = (6) 0.50(6) = 0.0938
P(slot7) = (1) 0.50(6) = 0.0156
Figure 3. Probability for Each Slot

Once the probability of each slot is found, the probability for the amount that a player

wins each time they play can be calculated. This is done by multiplying a slots probability by the

ratio of the multiplier that the probability is being calculated for using, as seen in Figure 1. For

example, for the probability of the disk going into slot three given that the player spun a times

two multiplier, the probability of slot three, seen in Figure 3, would be multiplied by the ratio of

times two multipliers are on the wheel. According to Figure 1, two of six slots on the wheel is

times two multipliers, so P(slot3) would be multiplied by the ratio two over six, or two sixths.

The probabilities and winnings (in player point of view) for each slot are seen below in Tables 1-

3, along with expected values (operator point of view) in Figures 4-6.

Calculations for the rest of the slots are shown in Figure 3 above.

III. Theoretical Probability II:

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There is an expected amount of money that the game will gain per person. This is also

called the expected value. In order to compute the expected value of the overall game, the cash

amount in one multiplier’s probability distribution is multiplied by its probability underneath it

in either Table 1, 2, or 3. Then, the sum of the products in one distribution is calculated to find

the expected value of that multiplier. However, with subtracting this price to play, the total

amount the game will gain per player is actually $0.78.

Table 1
Probability Distribution Chart (x1 multiplier)
$ -0.50 -1.50 -2.00 0.00 -2.00 -1.50 -0.50

P($) 0.0078 0.0469 0.1172 0.1563 0.1172 0.0469 0.0078

In Table 1, the probability distribution is shown for the x1 multiplier. It is clear to see the

probability (in the second row) of winning the different cash amounts shown in the first row.

𝛴($ ∗ 𝑃($))= (-0.50*0.0078) + (-1.50*0.0469) + (-2.00*0.1172) + (0.00*0.1563) +

(-2.00*0.1172) + (-1.50*0.0469) + (-0.50*0.0078)

= $0.54

Figure 4. Expected Value of x1 Multiplier

To find the expected value of this distribution, the sum of all products from multiplying

the cash amount by the probability should be calculated.

Table 2
Probability Distribution Chart (x2 multiplier)
$ 1.00 -1.00 -2.00 2.00 -2.00 -1.00 1.00

P($) 0.0052 0.0313 0.0782 0.1042 0.0782 0.0313 0.0052

In Table 2, the probability distribution for the x2 multiplier is displayed. The second row

shows the probability of getting the cash amount in the first row.
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𝛴($ ∗ 𝑃($))= (1.00*0.0052) + (-1.00*0.0313) + (-2.00*0.0782) + (2.00*0.1042) +

(-2.00*0.0782) + (-1.00*0.0313) + (1.00*0.0052)

= $0.16
Figure 5. Expected Value of x2 Multiplier

To then find the expected value of the distribution, add together the products from

multiplying the cash amount by the probability of that amount.

Table 3
Probability Distribution Chart (x3 multiplier)
$ 2.50 -0.50 -2.00 4.00 -2.00 -0.50 2.50

P($) 0.0026 .0156 0.0391 0.0521 0.0391 0.0156 0.0026

In Table 3, the probability distribution is shown for the x3 multiplier. The second row

displays the probability of getting the first row, which is the cash amount.

𝛴($ ∗ 𝑃($))= (2.50*0.0026) + (-0.50*0.0156) + (-2.00*0.0391) + (4.00*0.0521) +

(-2.00*0.0391) + (-0.50*0.0156) + (2.50*0.0026)

= $-0.05
Figure 6. Expected Value of x3 Multiplier

To find the expected value, add the products of each cash amount multiplied by the

probability of that certain amount occurring.

Expected Value = E(x1) + E(x2) + E(x3)

Expected Value = $0.54 + $0.16 - $0.05
= $0.65
Figure 7. Expected Value of Game Per Player

In Figure 7, the expected value of money gained by the owner per player is shown. The

expected value of the x1, x2, and x3 multipliers were all added together to find a final sum of

$0.73. This means that per player, the owner should expect a $0.65 gain to the carnival.

IV. Relative Frequencies:

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Simulation 1:

Now that the theoretical probabilities have been calculated, experimental probabilities

can be used to to back up the theoretical data. One of these methods include actually testing the

game. For this game, both the wheel and the plinko board.

Table 2.
Trials of Playing the Game

The table above shows the plinko board and spinner for 50 trials. Using methods seen in

the previous section, the expected value was calculated to be $0.90 from the owners point of

view.

Simulation 2:

A simulation of our game was run with a total of 500 trials. In order to do so, a column

was numbered 1-500, which represents the trial numbers. The next column created would have

500 randomly generated numbers. These were conceived using the random integer (randInt)

function on a calculator. The numbers 1-3 represent the spinner landing on the x1 multiplier,
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numbers 4-5 represented landing on the x2 multiplier, and the number 6 represented the x3

multiplier on the spinner. After this, the third column consisted of numbers collected from a

plinko simulator found online (link: https://phet.colorado.edu/sims/html/plinko-

probability/latest/plinko-probability_en.html). Once in this link, the option named lab was

clicked on, the number of rows was set to 6, and the binary probability option remained at 0.50.

The dropping of each ball in this simulator represented one trial. The slot that the ball landed in

was the number written down in the column. This was done 500 times. The fourth column had

the prices of each trial that had been generated based on the previous two columns. In order to

determine the price, the randomly generated numbers determining the multiplier show which

probability distribution chart to look at. Then the plinko number from the simulator would

determine the column of the probability distribution chart, with the corresponding price. For

example, say the number generated on a calculator was 3 and the plinko simulation slot number

was 2. Because the calculator number was a 3, that implies that one would need to look in the x1

multiplier probability distribution chart. In that chart, the plinko number of 2 would correspond

with the column number and the price of $-2.00. This is also modeled in the table below with the

first and last 10 trials and in Appendix B where all 500 trials are shown.

Table 3
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Trials of Playing the Game

Table 2 shows the first ten trials and the last ten trials of the simulation with 500 trials total.

Another way the game was tested was through a Java program.
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Simulation 3:

Figure 8. Java Program for Simulations

The figure above shows the simulation that the game went through, this time with Java.

The Java program was written by assigning each probability, for getting a particular dollar

amount, a range (ex: P(1) = .0 to .2345, P(2) = .2346 to .4827, etc.). The Program then generates

5000 random numbers, 1 through 10,000, simulating 5000 people playing the game. Then each

of the 5000 random numbers were sorted into their appropriate probability range. In the

simulation it could be seen that

With this data, the average amount of money gained can be calculated for each trial.

Money made in 5000 trials for fee = 5000 ($2) = $10,000

Money lost by players winning = (prize $) (times the simulation won that amount)

= (-2.00)(2379)+(-1.50)(466)+(-1)(300)+(0.50)(234)+(1.00)(40)

+(2.00)(550)+(2.50)(25)+(4)(260) = $3631.50/5000 trials = $0.73

Figure 9. Average Gain Per Trial

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Figure 9 shows the average amount of money gained by the game per trial on the Java

program. This was done by multiplying the money gained or lost by the amount of times it was

gained or lost in the 5000 trials. These were then added up and divided by the 5000 trials.

V. Summary:

Throughout the whole experience of making Cloudy with a Probability of Meatballs the

work was divided equally. Dylan took charge and built the plinko board and spinner because of

his supply of the materials and that he really enjoys constructing things. He also did the java

program with close monitoring of Rogina and Alyssa. Then, from there, Rogina and Alyssa

evenly divided up the essay and conquered it, but they made sure to double check the other

person’s part in order to fully comprehend the whole project. Dylan did so as well once he had

the time after building the game.

Cloudy with a Probability of Meatballs would be a superb addition to the carnival

because of its sheer uniqueness and diversity. The theoretical probability is a gain $0.65 from the

operator’s perspective. Experimentally, the expected values ranged from $0.63 to $0.73 . With an

expected gain like these, the carnival’s business will be flying in no time!
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Appendix A

Own Trials
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Appendix B

500 Trials in Excel

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Appendix C

5000 trials in Java

package carnivalProject;

// carnival game simulation for 5000 trials

import java.util.Scanner;

public class carnivalProject {

public static void main(String args []){

Scanner userInput = new Scanner(System.in);

int sim=0, mTwo=0, mOneFifty=0, mOne= 0, mFiftyCent= 0, zero = 0, one= 0, two=0,

twoFifty=0, four=0;
double relativeFreq = 0, sum = 0;

for(int i = 1; i <= 5000; i++){

sim = (int)(10000*Math.random()) + 1;

if (sim >= 1 && sim <= 4690) mTwo = mTwo + 1;

if (sim >= 4691 && sim <= 5628) mOneFifty = mOneFifty + 1;
if (sim >= 5629 && sim <= 6254) mOne = mOne + 1;
if (sim >= 6255 && sim <= 6722) mFiftyCent = mFiftyCent + 1;
if (sim >= 6723 && sim <= 6826) one = one + 1;
if (sim >= 6827 && sim <= 7868) two = two + 1;
if (sim >= 7869 && sim <= 7920) twoFifty = twoFifty + 1;
if (sim >= 7921 && sim <= 8441) four = four + 1;
if (sim >= 8442 && sim <= 10000) zero = zero + 1;
}
System.out.println("Number of times user got -$2.00 = " + mTwo);
System.out.println("Number of times user got -$1.50 = " + mOneFifty);
System.out.println("Number of times user got -$1.00 = " + mOne);
System.out.println("Number of times user got -$0.50 = " + mFiftyCent);
System.out.println("Number of times user got $0.00 = " + zero);
System.out.println("Number of times user got $1.00 = " + one);
System.out.println("Number of times user got $2.00 = " + two);
System.out.println("Number of times user got $2.50 = " + twoFifty);
System.out.println("Number of times user got $4.00 = " + four);

sum = four + twoFifty + two + one + zero;

relativeFreq = sum/5000;
System.out.println("The relative frequency for breaking even or higher is " + relativeFreq
+ ".");
}
}
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Cloudy With a Probability of Meatballs

Directions:

1. Grab the disc.

2. Stand behind the plinko board.

3. Level the disc to the point where it's right above the hole at the top of the plinko board.
It is best to leave the least amount of space possible between the disc and the hole.

4. Drop the disc. Record which hole the disc landed in.

5. Flick the spinner.

6. Take whatever multiplier it landed on and multiply it by the amount of money won
by the plinko disc drop. This is your prize!

7. Thanks for playing! ☺