Break Even

Carnival Game Analysis and Proposal

By Imtiaz Qureshi and Alex Otlacan
10A FST-IDS
Synopsys
The Break-Even carnival game revolves around the player having to choose an even
card from a deck of cards numbered 1 through 6. If the player chooses an even card,
then they win the round and get to continue; if the player chooses an odd card, then
they loses the game but gets to keep any prizes that were previously won. The player
wins the game once they cleared all three rounds and gathered all the prizes. Once the
player chooses an even card, the operator takes that card out of the deck for the rest of
the game thus decreasing the odds of winning with each round.

Theoretical Probability:

As shown in the figure on the left, round 1 contains a deck

of 6 cards that are numbered 1-6. Since half of the cards
are even and the other half are odd, the player has an
equal chance of winning this round. Thus, there is a 3/6 or
50% chance of winning round 1.
P(winning round 1) = 0.5
P(losing round 1) = 0.5
Figure 1. Screenshot of first round.
As shown in the figure 2,
round 2 has a deck of 5 cards.
The even card that was last
picked was not replaced in the deck. Now there are 3 odd
cards and 2 even cards giving the player a 2/5 or 40%
of winning round 2 independently. However, the
chance of winning round 1 and round 2 is 1/5 or 20% as
both probabilities are multiplied.
P(winning round 2) = 0.4
P(losing round 2) = 0.6
P(winning round 1 and
losing round 2) = 0.3
P(winning round 1 and round 2) = 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.2
P(losing in either round 1 or round 2) = 0.8
Figure 2. Screenshot of second round.
As shown in figure 3 on the left, round 3 has 4 cards as
the two previous even cards were not replaced in the
deck. This leaves 3 odd cards with only 1 even card
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giving the player a ¼ or 25% chance of winning this round independently. Again, the
chance of winning the entire game is the product of the probability for every round.
Thus, the player has a 1/20 or 5% chance of winning the entire game.
P(winning round 3) = 0.25
P(losing round 3) = 0.75
P(winning all three rounds) = 0.5 * 0.4 *0.25 = 0.05
P(winning the first 2 round and losing round 3) = 0.15
P(not wining the entire game) = 0.95
Figure 3. Screenshot of round 3.

Probabilty Distribution Chart

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3
P(x)

0.2

0.1

0
Win Round 1 Lose at Round 2 Win Round 2 Lose at Round 3 Win Round 3
Outcomes

Figure 4. Probability distribution chart of the different outcomes

Theocratical Profit:
Price to play game: $2.50
Round 1 Prize: Plushie, bought in package of 30 for $22.21 off of Amazon; price for
each = $22.21/30 = $0.74.
Round 2 Prize: Inflatable Toys, bought in package of 25 for $15.15 off of Amazon; price
for each = $15.15/25 = $0.61.
A player winning round 1 and 2 costs the operator: $0.74 + $0.61 = $1.35
Round 3 Prize: LED Toy Plane, bought in package of 2 for $19.08 off of Amazon; price
for each = $19.08/2 = $9.54.
A player winning the entire game costs the operator: $0.74 + $0.61 + $9.54= $10.89
Expected Value: 0.5($0.74) + 0.2($1.35) + 0.05($10.89) = 1.1845 or around $1.18
Average Profit Per Game: $2.50 – $1.18 = $1.32
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Over the course of 100 games:
0.5 * 100 = 50 players would get past round 1
0.2 * 100 = 20 players would get past round 2
0.05 * 100 = 5 players would win the entire game.
Profit = ($2.50 * 100) – ($1.1845 * 100) = $250 - $118.45 = $131.55

Round Round Round Givea

Trial 1 2 3 way ($)
1 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
2 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
3 TRUE TRUE TRUE 10.89
4 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
5 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
6 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
7 TRUE TRUE TRUE 10.89
8 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
9 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
10 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
11 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
12 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
13 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
14 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
15 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
16 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
17 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
18 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
19 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
20 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
21 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
22 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
23 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
24 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
25 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
26 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
27 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
28 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
29 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
30 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
31 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
32 TRUE TRUE TRUE 10.89
33 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74

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 34 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
35 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
36 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
37 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
38 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
39 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
40 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
41 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
42 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
43 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
44 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
45 TRUE TRUE FALSE 1.35
46 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
47 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
48 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
49 TRUE FALSE FALSE 0.74
50 FALSE FALSE FALSE 0
Totals 23 12 3 52.96
Figure 5. Chart of 50 Trials
Relative Frequency and Experimental Profit:
Round 1 Wins: 23/50 or 46% Round 2 Wins: 12/50 or 24% Round 3 Wins: 3/50 or 6%
Total: $2.50 * 50 = $125 – $52.96 = $72.04
Average Lost/Trials: $52.96/50 = $1.06
Average Gain/Trial: $2.50 – ($1.06) = $1.44
All the experimental values are fairly close to the theorical values of 50%, 20%, 5%,
$65.75, $1.18, and $1.32 respectively considering that this is a sample of only 50 trials.

Summery:

As mentioned in the synopsis, the Break Even Carnival Game revolves around the
player having to choose an even card from a deck of cards that are facing down and
numbered 1-6. If the player chooses an even card, then they get to continue until they
win the final prize; if the player chooses an odd card, then they lose the game but get to
keep any prizes that were won in the previous rounds. The prize for level one are
plushies, the prize for level 2 are inflatable toys, and the prize for level 3 is a LED toy
plane. The prizes will be ordered from Amazon and will include free shipping as orders

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above $25 have that perk. The prices for the prizes above include Michigan tax. The
prizes for the first two prizes for the first two are fairly cheap and the operator is
guaranteed to make money with each player that fails to win the third round. The prize
for the third round quite expensive and will cost the operator money if a player were to
win the entire game. However, only around 5% of players would actually win the third
round and the LED plane mainly serves as an attraction to get people to play.

The game has a simple concept that everyone can understand, is easy and
inexpensive to setup, and takes little time to play meaning that many trials can be taken
place over the course of a day. The nature of the game could also make it addicting to
players who want to win the final prize giving the operator more profit. The probability of
winning the first round is an even 0.5 while the probability of getting past round two is
0.2; those odds may seem high for the player, but the operator will still make money as
the cost of the game ($2.50) exceeds the cost of the first two prizes per piece ($1.35).
The odds of winning the third round may seem like high at 0.25 from the player’s view,
however the odds of clearing the first two rounds and round 3 is only 0.05. This means
that the operator is bound to make a profit nearly 95% of the time. Subtracting the cost
of the game ($2.50) from the expected value or loss per trail ($1.18) gives an average
gain of $1.32 per trial. In the simulation of 50 trials, the average giveaway was $1.06,
and the average gain was $1.44. Consider that this was a small sample size and that
the average gain and loss will be much closer to the theoretical values with more trials.
Overall, the game is relatively inexpensive, can garner a lot of addition with its simple
and addicting nature, and is guaranteed to generate profit over the long run.

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