Russell - Thomas - Zabel

Spin to Win Instructions

1.Spin the large spinner

If you land on a sport:

2. Spin the small spinner.

3. If you land on the same sport that you got on the large spinner, you win!

If you land on the sum of two dice:

4. Roll two dice.

5. If the sum of the two dice falls under the same criteria as what you got on the

large spinner, you win!

If you land on “You Win” or “You Lose”:

6. You do not move on to anything else and your game ends here.

Thanks for Playing!

Spin to Win
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If you are looking for a new game to be put in your carnival, you came to the right place.

We have built a carnival game that is to be used as a fundraiser. This game is based off of

probability and involves no skill, so it is fair for all people. Continue reading to learn more about

our game, Spin to Win!

I. Description, Rules and Directions

In order to play this game, the player will need to pay $2. The player will start off with a

large spinner. This spinner has 12 different sections you are able to land on. If the player lands

on one of the four sports, they move on to the smaller spinner. The player needs to land on the

same sport they landed on the first time in order to win. For example, if on the larger spinner the

player landed on hockey, they would move on to the smaller spinner and can only win if they

land on hockey again. Each of the sports will earn the player $5. If on the large spinner the

player lands on the sum of two dice, they move on to rolling two dice and they win if the sum of

the two dice is the same as what they got on the large spinner. For example, if they land on “Sum

>= 10”, then they would need to get a 10, 11, or 12 in order to win. The money the player earns

depends on how high of a chance it is to win. “Roll a Sum of 7 or 11” and “Roll a Sum of 5 or 9”

will get the player $5, “Roll a Sum of 3” and “Roll a Sum of 11” will get the player $8, and “Roll

a Sum <= 4” and “Roll a Sum >= 10” will get the player $6. The last two sections of the large

spinner are “You win” and “You lose”. If the player lands on either one of those, they do not

move on to anything else. They will either lose the money needed to play this game, which is $2,

or earn $3 depending on which won they land on.

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Figure 1. Game Illustration

Figure 1 illustrates how the game is played, starting from the large spinner then

moving on to either the dice or small spinner.

II. Theoretical Probability I

To find all of the different probabilities of winning and losing, the probabilities for the

larger spinner is multiplied with the probabilities of the small spinner or the sum of two dice.

Probabilities of the ways to win, overall winning, and overall losing:

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Figure 2. Probabilities

Figure 2 shows the math for all of the probabilities including all the different ways to

win, overall winning and overall losing.

The sample space is the set of all of the possible outcomes in this experiment. There are

234 possible outcomes. Since there are 4 sports, you have 4*4 to get the possible outcomes of a

sport which is 16. Then, you multiply 6 and 36 because there are 6 sums of dice on the large

spinners and 36 different ways to get the sums which would be 216. You add the 2 other sections

on the large spinner, 216, and 16 to get a total of 234 outcomes. Part of the sample space

includes {HH, FB, HB, BkB, HBk, BF, HF, (Sum of 3, Gets 4 then 2), (Sum >= 10, Gets 5 then

6)...}
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Figure 3. Tree Diagram

Figure 3 visually shows all of the different outcomes, step by step, in the form of a tree

diagram.

III. Theoretical Probability II

Table 1
Distribution Chart

Table 1 shows the distribution chart, which shows the probability of winning or losing for

each category and how much you would earn. All of the probabilities were found in Theoretical

Probabilities I.

Expected value is the predicted value of what a player would earn in the long run, which

is calculated by multiplying each cost by its probability and finding the sum. You also need to

keep in mind the amount to play and subtract it from the prize money.

Figure 4. Expected Value

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Figure 4 shows the calculations of the expected value. The result means that if someone

were to play this game, they would lose about 91 cents in the long run.

IV. Relative Frequencies

The relative frequencies for winning and the expected value were found three different

ways. The first way was by actually playing the game, then by an online simulation, and through

a java program.

Simulation 1:

The actual game itself was played fifty times and the results were recorded as the trials

(see Appendix A) were ran. It was found that the relative frequency of winning was 0.28, which

was found by taking the number of wins, 14, and dividing it by the number of trials. The relative

frequencies for each way to win were 0.1 for $3, 0.12 for $5, 0.02 for $6, and 0.04 for $8. The

relative frequency of losing was 0.72, since there were 36 losses. To find the expected value,

each probability was multiplied by the dollar amount then each value was summed. However, the

dollar amount is 2 dollars less because of the cost to play. Expected value = 1(0.1) + 3(0.12) +

4(0.02) + 6(0.04) + -2(0.72) = $-0.66. In the long run, a player will lose 66¢ each time they play.

Table 2
Trials of Playing the Game
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Table 2 shows the first 10 and last 10 trials out of the 50 trials that were played. Out of

those 20 trials, there were 16 losses and 4 wins.

Simulation 2:

A simulation of 500 trials (see Appendix B) was set up to see how much the average

money was gained or lost per trial. This simulation was set up by www.random.org put into

excel. Earlier it was found that the probability of winning was 13/54. Random integers between 1

and 54 were calculated with 1 to 13 counting as a win while 14 to 54 counted as a loss. In all 500

trials, there were 125 wins. This makes the relative frequency of winning 0.25, which was found

by dividing the total wins and the amount of trials. This means that there were 375 losses, giving

it a relative frequency of 0.75. To find the expected value, the probability of losing was

multiplied by -2 since that is how much money would be lost and the probability of winning

would be multiplied by 1. They would then be added together to get an expected value of a loss

of $1.25. This is not very accurate because this simulation only tells us if there was a win or loss,
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but not how much was won. That is why it was multiplied by 1 because all the wins will have a

profit of at least 1. The expected value is most likely not as large of a loss as $1.25.

Table 3
Trials of Random Number Generator

Table 3 shows the first 10 and last 10 trials of the simulation. Looking at those trials,

whenever a number 1 to 13 showed up, it would count as a win. In those 20 trials, there were 6

wins.

Simulation 3:
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Figure 5. Summary of Java Program Results

A java program (see Appendix C) was created in order to run 5,000 trials. By running the

program, results such as number of wins, losses, relative frequencies (probabilities), and

expected value were found, shown in Figure 5. In this simulation, the user wins 1,221 times. The

relative frequency was found by dividing this by 5,000 to find that the relative frequency of

winning was about 0.2442, this was very close to the theoretical probability of winning. The

probability of losing was about 0.7558, found by taking one minus the relative frequency of

winning. The program design was quite simple. It begins by asking the user how many trials they

would like to run. Then, for each trial, it generates numbers 1-12 for spinner one, 1-4 for spinner

two, and 1-6 for each of the die. When certain conditions are met (when certain numbers match

up), the program will print that you won and will print the numbers generated for that trial. For

each of the separate dollar amounts, a count was kept for the number of wins for just that

amount. Therefore, finding the probability for winning each dollar amount was easy to find,

simply divide its number of wins by the number of trials. Finally, the expected value was found

by taking the sum of each dollar amount multiplied by its own probability to find that in the long

run, a player will lose about 89¢ each time they play, which is very close to the theoretical

expected value.

The three simulations had their similarities and differences. For starters, they all had a

different number of trials, going from 50 to 500 to 5000. Although the trials ranged greatly, the
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relative frequencies were all extremely close to one another, with only about a 0.08 between the

highest and lowest relative frequencies. The expected values were also near each other, all of

them resulting in a loss of money. These results were to be expected because even though there

were different numbers of trials, it was still the same experiment.

V. Summary

Throughout the duration of this project, the work was split evenly between all of us. We

came up with the game, directions, and all of the math together while taking turns typing it up.

Lara made the tables and figures along with anchoring them. The building was done by Nick and

Kyle since they lived near each other and then they also performed the 50 trials when the game

was done. Kyle took charge of the Java program, but Lara and Nick helped as well. In the end,

Nick made sure the whole paper was formatted correctly. We all felt like no one person did more

work than the other and it was fair for each person.

Spin to Win would be a perfect addition for a carnival. The theoretical expected value is -

0.91, meaning the operator of the game would make a profit. All three of the simulations were

negative so you are guaranteed to make some money for the fundraiser! You might think that

players wouldn’t want to play since they lose money, but it’s not a huge loss of money so the

player, unless they actually did the math, would not notice and take the risk of playing. Anyone

who comes across a fun game like Spin to Win would not be able to walk past it without playing.

You would not regret picking Spin to Win as your new carnival game.

Appendix A

50 Real Life Trials:

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Appendix B
500 Simulation Trials:
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Appendix C
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Java program:
/* Kyle Zabel 3/21/2017
This program runs simulations for my group's carnival game
*/
import TerminalIO.KeyboardReader; // code to read characters from the keyboard
import java.text.DecimalFormat;//code to format numbers

// the slash and * are used for comments

class CarnivalGameProgram { // this is the name of the program. It match the file name, No space, can't begin with a number

public static void main(String args[]){

KeyboardReader reader = new KeyboardReader();

DecimalFormat fourDec = new DecimalFormat("0.0000");

//define variables
int trialNum, i, spinnerOne, spinnerTwo, dieOne, dieTwo, diceSum, num3Wins = 0, num6Wins = 0, num5Wins = 0, num8Wins = 0, numWins
= 0, numLoss;
double prob3Win, prob6Win, prob5Win, prob8Win, probWin, probLoss, expValue;

//ask user how many trials they'd like to run

System.out.println("How many trials would you like to run");

trialNum = reader.readInt();

System.out.println("===========================================");

//create column headings for outcomes on each spinner and die

System.out.println("Spin 1\t" + "Spin 2\t" + "Die One\t" + "Die Two\t");

//create loop that will simulate trials

for (i = 1; i <= trialNum; i++) {

//simulate spins and dice rolls by generating random numbers

spinnerOne = (int)(12 * Math.random() + 1);
spinnerTwo = (int)(4 * Math.random() + 1);
dieOne = (int)(6 * Math.random() + 1);
dieTwo = (int)(6 * Math.random() + 1);
diceSum = dieOne + dieTwo;

//create if else if ladder for each section on the first spinner

if (spinnerOne == 1) {
System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $3");
num3Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 2 && diceSum >= 10) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $6");
num6Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 3 && spinnerTwo == 2) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 4 && (diceSum == 7 || diceSum ==11)) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 5 && spinnerTwo == 4) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 6 && diceSum ==11) {

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System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $8");
num8Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 8 && diceSum <= 4) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $6");
num6Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 9 && spinnerTwo == 3) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 10 && (diceSum == 5 || diceSum ==9)) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 11 && spinnerTwo == 1) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $5");
num5Wins++;
}

if (spinnerOne == 12 && diceSum == 3) {

System.out.println(spinnerOne + "\t" + spinnerTwo + "\t" + dieOne + "\t" + dieTwo + "\t" + "You win $8");
num8Wins++;
}

}//end of loop

//calculate results
numWins = num3Wins + num6Wins + num5Wins + num8Wins;
numLoss = trialNum - numWins;
prob3Win = (double)num3Wins / (double)trialNum;
prob6Win = (double)num6Wins / (double)trialNum;
prob5Win = (double)num5Wins / (double)trialNum;
prob8Win = (double)num8Wins / (double)trialNum;
probWin = (double)numWins / (double)trialNum;
probLoss = 1 - probWin;
expValue = (1 * prob3Win) + (4 * prob6Win) + (3 * prob5Win) + (6 * prob8Win) + (-2 * probLoss);

//print results
System.out.println("===========================================");
System.out.println("Number of Wins = " + numWins);
System.out.println("Number of Losses = " + numLoss);
System.out.println();
System.out.println("Probability of Winning $3 = " + fourDec.format(prob3Win));
System.out.println("Probability of Winning $5 = " + fourDec.format(prob5Win));
System.out.println("Probability of Winning $6 = " + fourDec.format(prob6Win));
System.out.println("Probability of Winning $8 = " + fourDec.format(prob8Win));
System.out.println();
System.out.println("Probability of Winning = " + fourDec.format(probWin));
System.out.println("Probability of losing = " + fourDec.format(probLoss));
System.out.println();
System.out.println("Expected Value = " + fourDec.format(expValue));
System.out.println("===========================================");