Gorman- Haque- Vicencio

3/15/17
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Introduction:

When we grew up we used to watch cartoons all the time. It was our form of

entertainment before apps like Instagram and Snapchat began to consume our lives. With our

game we hoped to show you some of the cartoon characters we grew up with and while having

fun at the same time. The best part is that no one has a greater chance of winning so come test

your like and get a chance to win $100!

Descriptions, Rules, and Directions:

The game costs $10 to play. The player begins the game by picking a ball out of a box. If

they pick a blue and yellow ball, then they move on to the die. Otherwise, you automatically

lose. Once you roll the die, if you get any number between (4-6) then you go back to bag pull.

You must once again get one of the two Disney characters to move on to the final stage. The

final stage is a spinner with 4 outcomes, two Disney and two Nickelodeon characters. You must

land on one of the Disney characters this time to win the grand prize of $100. If you land on the

Nickelodeon characters, then you will only receive a prize of $25.

Figure 1. Picture of the Physical Game

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Theoretical Probability I:

In each game, there is a one in four chance of winning the first stage and a one in two

chance of winning each of the other stages. These are multiplied together to get one in sixteen,

which is the probability of winning the prize of $100.

P(Grand prize)=0.0625

P(Small prize)=0.0625

P(Lose)=0.875

P(Grand prize U Small prize)=0.125

Theoretical Probability II:

(0.0625 × 90) + (0.0625 × 15) + (0.875 × −10)

= −2.1875

Figure 2. The Equation for Expected Value

It is expected that the game operator will make $2.19 per play. There is a 6.25% of

winning $90 (You actually win $100 but it costs $10 to play) and there is also a 6.25% chance of

winning $15 (Actually win $25 but it costs $10 to play). There is also an 87.5% chance of losing

$10 (Not winning anything after paying $10).

Relative Frequencies:

Simulation 1
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The game was played 50 times. Of the 50 times, the player won 4 times. The relative

frequency of winning was 0.08. The theoretical probability of winning is 0.0625. The relative

frequency for losing 0.84. The theoretical probability of losing was 0.875. The relative frequency

for winning the consolation prize is also 0.08. The theoretical probability for winning the

consolation prize was also 0.0625. The relative frequency for winning is close to the theoretical

probability of winning with a 0.02 difference. However, the theoretical and experimental

probability of winning are not identical. This is due to the Law of Averages. This law explains

how as more trials are conducted the relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability.

This is proven when 500 and 5000 trials are conducted.

Simulation 2

The game was simulated 500 times. The game was simulated by using the TI-nspire CX

alongside two different online simulators. On the TI-nspire CX, we generated random numbers 1

through 6 to simulate the rolling of the dice. The first online simulator was used to simulate the

part where we had to pick a piece of paper from the bag. The second simulator was used to

simulate a spinner. Of the 500 times the game was simulated there were 30 wins where the

player won $100, there were 29 wins where the player won $25, and there were 441 losses. The

relative frequency for winning $100 was 0.0602 while the theoretical probability was 0.0625.

The relative frequency for winning $25 is 0.0583. The chance of losing is 0.8815 while the

theoretical probability was 0.875. As expected, the experimental probability was much closer to

the theoretical probability due to the Law of Large Numbers.

Simulation 3
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This simulation used a java program and simulated the game 5,000 times. This simulation

resulted in 635 wins. The relative frequency of winning was 0.1270. The theoretical probability

of winning was 0.125. This simulation is much closer to the theoretical probability than any of

the other simulations. This is due to the fact that this simulation had the most amounts of trials,

therefore, we can apply the Law of Large Numbers to this situation. There was a much larger

number of trials in this simulation than the other three which, according to the Law of Large

Numbers, should be closer to the theoretical probability, which it was.

All three simulations came pretty close to the theoretical probability, but simulation 3

was the best. All three simulations used the same numbers and probabilities, but simulation 3 had

more trials. These results support the Law of Large Numbers. This law explains how as more

trials are conducted the relative frequency approaches the theoretical probability, which is

exactly what was demonstrated with these three simulations.

Summary:

In conclusion, I think this would be a really great carnival game. The cost is only $10 and

you get a chance of winning 10 times that, or $100. The game seems pretty easy to win since for

each stage of the game there is a 50% chance of moving on to the next stage. Most people will

see that as a fair chance at winning and it would look really easy to win the $100. Another

incentive for people to play our game would be the consolation prize of $25 if you make it far

enough. This would also make it seem that if they have good enough luck they could also win

$25. The theoretical probability of winning the grand prize or the consolation prize is 0.125. The

theoretical probability of losing is 0.875. The chance of losing in actuality is much greater than
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the chance of winning. Since the calculated expected value is -2.1875, this would mean that after

every play, the game operator would make $2.19.

The relative frequencies were calculated through three different simulations. The first ran

50 trials, the second ran 500 trials, and the final simulation that ran on Java was 5000 trials. As

the number of trials increased, the relative frequencies for winning and losing came much closer

in line with the calculated theoretical probabilities. This game on the outside appears to look fair

since there is a half a chance at winning at each stage but in actuality, the chances of winning the

grand prize or the consolation prize are 6.25% each. This game looks fair but in the end, the

game operator is the only person who truly wins.

Everyone in the group had a major part to play in the creation of the game and paper.

Mahin, Gabe, and Shaun had a role in the creation of the paper. Shaun worked on the Java and

ran simulation 1 and 3, and also constructed the physical game. The second simulation was done

in a combination with Gabe and Mahin. The game descriptions, introduction, theoretical

probabilities II and parts of the summary were written by Mahin. Gabe worked on the second

simulation, summaries, and relative frequencies. Overall, the division of labor was split well and

we all constantly kept each other in check by texting one another to see if there were any

problems. Also, we skyped one another while writing the paper.

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Appendix A

Table 1 Results Of 50 Trials

Simulation of 50 Trials

Trial Win/Lose Money Gained

(Owner’s Perspective)

1 Lose $10

2 Win - $15

3 Lose $10

4 Lose $10

5 Lose $10

6 Lose $10

7 Lose $10

8 Lose $10

9 Lose $10

10 Lose $10

11 Lose $10

12 Lose $10

13 Win -$90

14 Lose $10

15 Lose $10

16 Lose $10

17 Lose $10

18 Lose $10

19 Lose $10
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20 Lose $10

21 Win -$90

22 Win -$90

23 Lose $10

24 Lose $10

25 Lose $10

26 Lose $10

27 Win -$15

28 Lose $10

29 Lose $10

30 Lose $10

31 Win -$15

32 Lose $10

33 Lose $10

34 Lose $10

35 Lose $10

36 Lose $10

37 Lose $10

38 Lose $10

39 Lose $10

40 Lose $10

41 Win -$15

42 Lose $10

43 Lose $10

44 Lose $10

45 Lose $10
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46 Lose $10

47 Lose $10

48 Lose $10

49 Lose $10

50 Lose $10

Appendix A

“Marble Mania.” Marblemania,

<http://sciencenetlinks.com/interactives/marble/marblemania.html>.
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Shodor. “Adjustable Spinner” Interactivate: Adjustable Spinner,

<http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/>.

Java Made For Carnival Game

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