Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Vietnam would need to make public that China was interfering in oil exploration in
Block 136 in order to lay the ground work for diplomatic support from the U.S. and
Japan.
Obviously, ExxonMobil would be following this reported incident carefully in order to
assess risks to its activities in the Blue Whale project. This is Vietnams largest natural
gas deal. Prime Minister Phuc has already approved the construction of gas power
plants on shore. If China put pressure on ExxonMobil the United States likely would
have greater reason to become involved than the Repsol case.
Vietnam usually offers some guarantee of support for oil companies operating in its
Exclusive Economic Zone. At the moment, if the speculative reports are correct, China
is only applying political and diplomatic pressure on either or both Repsol and
Vietnam. China is more likely to take some punitive economic action before resorting
to any confrontation at sea. China will likely use its fishing fleet, fishing militia and
Coast Guard ships before it has to rely on the Peoples Liberation Army Navy.
It would be prudent to suspend any judgment about whether or not Vietnam is
protecting its commercial partners until more information comes to hand. In other
words, wait and see.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Is China Reasserting its 9
Dotted Line Claim? Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 15, 2017. All
3
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.