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Helpful Resources: There are many helpful resource to provide assistance in this
predication. Two which I found extremely helpful have been the Director of Housing and
Residential Education and the Associate Director of Institutional Research, Planning, and
Analysis. After conversations and reviewing of data, the common variables were found
as what can affect housing needs.
Variable: The following are key factors that play a role in housing occupancy.
Enrollment- On any campus you will find enrollment number plays a factor
of how an institution operates. Specifically, this number can influence how
many spaces are needed to be available for a student to reside in on
campus housing (specifically freshman in which the university is required
to honor housing).
Prediction Plan: In order to make the Fall 2016 Housing Occupancy prediction, I used
data collected in the Universitys Data Warehouse, Oracle. For the predication I will focus
on occupancy numbers produced from Fall 2011, Fall 2012, Fall 2013, Fall 2014, and Fall
2015. The formula I found that best fits for this prediction is Rate of Change Over Time.
With this we will gather the average of the last 5 years in addition to considering
changes which may impact future trends. I will also explore Housing Type (residence
halls assigned by classification) and Enrollment Head Count as these are also important
factors in determining housing occupancy.
2,236 2,230
2,220
2,206
Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
Figure 1: Image data retrieved from Delaware State University Data Warehouse, Oracle.
DELAWARE STATE UNIVERSITY
ENROLLMENT
4,644
4,560
4,505
4,425
4,178
Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
Figure 2: Data Retrieved from Delaware State University Fact Book 2015-2016.
http://www.desu.edu/sites/default/files/u52/ENROLLMENT%202011-2015.pdf
966
920
885
866
818
Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
1,402
1,382
1,370
1,345
1,240
Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015
Expert Intuition: After reviewing the data, I found myself questioning and unclear of
some of the inconsistencies. This caused me to question if I could truly make a accurate
prediction. Particularly my biggest concern was if we had a downfall in enrollment
wouldnt that reflect in our housing? Instead in the year we decreased in enrollment, we
increased in housing. With these thoughts I sought a deeper understanding and
contacted our Assignment Coordinators. The two assignment coordinators for the
housing department are responsible for all applications and waitlist. I found it ideal to
speak with both of them as one is responsible for traditional housing and the other
upperclassmen housing.
Traditional Housing - Mr. Keith Coleman, who is also the Assistant Director of
Housing, oversees all assignments for the traditional housing. Mr. Coleman
has also been with the University for 20+ years and has seen many trends in
this department. Mr. Coleman identified one of the biggest reasons for
declines are the closing of a Residence Hall. During the Fall 2013 the
Department took 2 residence halls off line due to major maintenance
required. Although enrollment was steady this caused a major decline in
occupancy for our upperclassmen housing.
Prediction: After reviewing the above data, I predict the Fall 2016 Housing Occupancy
will reach its capacity at 2336, an increase of 34 students, 1.5% increase.
2,236 2,230
2,220
2,206
Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016
The two major factors considered heavily when determining this increase are the 3.2%
increase of housing occupancy from Fall 2014 to Fall 2015 and the capacity of 2,336
available spaces on campus. Although the decline in enrollment from Fall 2014 to Fall
2015 by 1.8% was a large concern initially, after reviewing the enrollment trends of the
past 5 years, the increases or declines havent had a negative effect on housing
occupancy and there isnt information provided to suspect a negatively influence
occurring on enrollment for the Fall 2016. With this, there isnt a reason to suspect a
major change.
In addition, all housing areas on campus will be available for Fall 2016, a first in 2 years.
With all spaces operable, I do believe we will continue to peek in housing as all of our
residence halls are open.
Conclusion: This project has allowed me to dive a bit deeper into the operations side of
housing. As a Residence Life professional, I mainly focus on the happenings once a
student gets inside their room and developing them as they matriculate. This
assignment has allowed me to see things from the housing operational perceptive
before they reach my front door. Making it a very eye opening experience to
understand the functioning of assignments, gain an understanding on enrollment, and
facilities management.
Initially, I had the mindset that one factor, enrollment, would determine the occupancy,
and although this can be a variable, it is possible that it wont affect occupancy at all. In
this prediction, there were more variables that affected the outcome of housing
occupancy. For Delaware State University, facility operations are a large factor on how
well occupancy remains. As identified, a building closing or an opening can increase or
decrease the numbers. The housing capacity is also a big factor of how large occupancy
can get. Even with enrollment increasing, at some point we will have to consider
additional housing options to service our students.