ESSAY ON WATER & ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

1. INTRODUCTION:
Water is precious, use it wisely says a notice placed in the bathroom of a five star hotel
in Karachi. There could not be a sounder piece of advice but it should be given not only to
the guests of the five star hotels but also to the entire citizenry of Pakistan. Pakistan is
rapidly moving to the situation when it will begin to be ranked among the countries that
have severe shortages of fresh water. Wise use of this precious resource is one way of
dealing with this crisis.
Man is a pre-eminently an animal good at gadgets. Man uses water much in the same way
as other animals; he has to drink it constantly, washes in it frequently, and drowns in it
occasionally probably oftener than other terrestrial vertebrates. Without water, he dies
as miserably as any other beast and with too much of it, as in floods, he is equally unable
to cope. However, he excels other animals in that he has learned to utilize waterpower.
There are three basic uses of water in the modern civilization agriculture, industry and
human consumption. Using water wisely in these three uses is one way of saving the
country from economic and social disaster.
Water is one of the most important natural resource and the major driving force for the
economy of Pakistan. Only a few decades ago, Pakistan was considered to have abundance
of good quality water. Now, however, in many other area of the world, population growth,
economic development, rapid urbanization and industrialization, are applying continuous
pressure on the already limited water resources of Pakistan.
Pakistan is now towards a serious shortage of water. In 1951, per capita surface water
availability for irrigation was estimated at 5650 cubic metres; this declined sharply to only
1350 cubic metres per head in 2002. The minimum amount that should be available is
1000 cubic metres. 2012, Pakistan will have reached the stage of acute water shortage.
2. CURRENT SITUATION IN PAKISTAN:
3. WORLD BANK REPORT:
Pakistan has exhausted its current water capability and needs to take immediate
measure to sustain its water-driven economy.
Pakistan only stores 30 days of river water. India stores 120 to 220 days, Colorado
River in the US stores 900 days.
Pakistans per capita water storage is just 150 cubic meters while that of China is
2200, Australia 5000 and the US is 5000.
Pakistans economy can only be propelled into future only through building new water
projects and canals.
4. WATER VISION 2016:
President Musharraf said,
Water and energy are matters of life and death for us. We have to build all dams. We
have lagged far behind and have to work at a fast pace to catch up with the rest of the
world.
We are facing an existing water shortage by 9 million-acre feet and by 2020 this short fall
will be up to 20 maf. Constructing two to three dams is inevitable for us by the year 2020.
By building mega water reservoirs our canals will become perennial and no longer be
seasonal. New reservoirs will generate 10000 mw of power, which would certainly bring
down the rate of electricity. One dam will bring an additional 2 maf of water to Sindh, two
dams will fetch 4 maf and another dam will bring water equal to storage capacity of Mangla
Dam.
Apart from Diamer-Bhasha and Kalabagh, the water vision envisages construction of Akori,
Munda and Kuram Tungi Dams by the year 2016.
5. NEED FOR THE DAMS:
Tariq Hameed, Chairman Wapda says,
Pakistan is fortunate that nature has bestowed it with abundant water reservoirs. It is
now up to us to harness these resources for the economic development and prosperity of
the people of Pakistan.
1) Presently, out of total cultivable land of 77.1 million acres, we are only cultivating
54.5 million acres because of shortage of water.
2) With the increase in population, Pakistan will have a shortfall of 11 million tons of
major food grains by 2010 and 16 million tons by 2020. This food grain deficit will
increase to 28 million tons by 2025.
3) High power tariff burdening consumers can be reduced by correcting hydel-thermal
generation ratio of 30-70, which used to be the opposite in 1970.
4) Only 14 % of Pakistans total hydropower potential of 50,000 mw being tapped at
present.
5) Average hydel generation unit cost for new projects is Rs. 1.00/KWH against Rs.
7.00/KWH for new oil based thermal generation.
6) Pakistans electricity demand and increasing by 7 % per annum.
7) Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistans economy; 23.3 % of GDP.
8) 64 % Pakistanis depend on agriculture.
9) 60-70 % of exports depend on it.
10) Pakistan today is among one of the worlds fastest growing populations now estimated
at over 150 million. Due to the lack of large river regulation capability through sizable
storages, the country is facing serious shortages in food grains. Given the present trend,
Pakistan could soon become one of the food deficit countries in the near future. Therefore,
there is a dire need to build storages for augmenting agriculture production. Tarbela,
Mangla and Chashma reservoirs have already lost about 5 maf due to sedimentation. It is
estimated that by the year 2012, this loss would increase to the original combined capacity
of Mangla and Chashma reservoirs.
11) Industrial expansion and growth essential for economic development and prosperity.
12) It will provide the better clean environment for the human beings.
13) Reduction in barren lands.
14) To control flooding and manage rivers.
15) The completion by India of Wuller, Buglihar and Krishenganga, Uri-11 Pakaldul and
Burser projects on the western rivers of Indus, Jehlum and Chenab to which Pakistan
has the exclusive right according to the 1960 Indus Basin Water Treaty, will also create
serious water shortage.
6. NEED FOR RESERVOIRS:
1) Hydropower Generation
High power tariff, which is a burden on consumer, can be reduced by correcting hydel
thermal generation ratio of 30-70, which used to be the opposite in 1970. Only 40% of
Pakistans total hydro power potential of 50000MW is being tapped at present. Average
hydel generation cost for new projects is Rs 1.007/Kwh as against Rs 7/Kwh for new oil
base thermal generation. Pakistans electricity demands are increasing by 7% per annum.
Saving import of fuel for thermal power plants reduce cost of electrically i.e. Rs1/Kwh.
Electrification of industries of towns and villages. Reduces cost of electricity help
manufacturers.
2) Agriculture
Agriculture forms the backbone of Pakistans economy. 23.3% of GDP, 64% Pakistanis
depend directly on agriculture. 60-70% exports depend on it. Water is a life line for
agriculture. Average rainfall of Pakistan is below Avg. Thus, water storage is needed for
agriculture as it is a precious resource and we should not waste a drop of it.
Out of Pakistan total geographical area only 17.1Macre is suitable for agriculture. A total
of 44.4Macres of agriculture land is irrigated besides only 10Macres Barani land under
cultivation. If water is available the remaining 22.6Macres of land(29% of total suitable
area for agriculture) can turn productive if no additional water is tapped. It means that
1/3 of agriculture potential will remain untapped.
3) Industry
4) Drinking Water And Sanitation
Pakistans population is increasing by over 2% per year requiring availability of more clean
drinking water. Cities, towns, Villages expanding requiring more water for sanitation
purposes.
Implementation of clean drinking water schemes possible with availability of more water.

5) Environment
Better clean environment for humans. Reduction in barren land. Controlled rivers and
canals.
More land area under cultivation, greenery and habitation to improve better water
management and cleanliness. More forests and eco system preservation and flood control.
7. KALABAGH DAM:
Public feeling that were running high on the Kalabagh dam issue have mercifully calmed
down. The president made a sensible move by announcing a change in the order of the
dams to be built.
The dam site is located 210 Km downstream of Tarbela and 26 Km upstream of Jinnah
Barrage on the Indus. When completed, the rock fill dam will rise to a height of 260 feet
and will be 4375 feet long. It will create a reservoir with usable storage capacity of 6.1
maf. The entire project is estimated to cost $ 6.1 billion and will take 6 years to complete.
ROLE:
Replacing storage lost by sedimentation in existing reservoirs at Mangla, Chasma and
Tarbela and proving additional storage of water to meet existing water storages during
early Kharif period of April/June. (Particularly critical for cotton crop in Sindh).
Providing effective regulations of Indus River to meet Kharif allocation of provinces
under WAA1991.
To control flood in the Indus to enable provisions of perennial tube well irrigation to the
revering area in Sindh.
Generation of Hydroelectric power at low cost.
Reducing dependence on imported fuel, saving foreign exchange.
I. Reservations of Sindh:
1) No surplus water is available for storage.
2) There is the fear that there is not enough water in the Indus for these mega projects
to be used optimally i.e. there would be no surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir.
3) The project would render Sindh into a desert.
4) Sindhs water supply which is already at low level will be reduced further since the
regulation of the flow of the river might enable the upper riparian to take away more of
the water and thus starve the lower riparian of irrigation for its agriculture (Sindh is the
lower riparian).
5) Sindhs worries about possible environmental problems. Its coastal area, which has
suffered as a result of SEA water moving unto the KOTRI, need to minimum 3.6MAF of
water escapade per annum in the INDUS to offset the negative ecological impact on the
river DELTA. Sindh fears that:
Sea water intrusion in Indus estuary would increase. Mangrove forest, which is already
threatened, would be further affected adversely. Fish production, drinking water supply
below KOTRI would be adversely affected.
CRITICISM:
According to experts, these apprehensions are baseless and the real issue is that of
politics.
Dams dont consume water. They store water during floods and make it available for
crops demand bases for the dry period.
The share of water would be strictly governed by WAA1991.
Mangrove forests cover area of almost 0.32MA. In the forest spreading from Karachi in
the west to the Rann of Kutch in east, 95% of forest population consists of a SALT
TOLERANT variety.
Similarly, a recent study has shown that instead of reduction fish production has
increased. Moreover, downstream to KOTRI barrage, ground water id saline or brackish
not suitable for irrigation or drinking. After KBD there would be drinking water available.
II. Reservations of Balochistan:
1) The supply of water from Indus, through the Pat Feeder canal, may be curtailed.
III. Reservations of NWFP:
1) It will flood Noshera and lot of fertile areas will be waterlogged, besides displacing a
large no of people.
2) It will displace 42000 people.
3) There would be water logging and salinity in Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi.
4) It is also feared that historic flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera would be
aggravated in the event of recurrence of 1929 record flood.
CRITICISM:
Nowshera, Mardan and Swabi has altitude higher than that of KBD (915 feet above sea
level). Thus KBD would not result in flooding or water logging /salinity. Mardan, Pabbi
and Swabi are at 970-962-1000ft above MSL (Mean Sea Level)
Total cultivable land submerged would be 27500 Acres (24500 in the Punjab and
3000Acrs in NWFP). Thus submerged irrigated land would be only 3000Acres (2900
Acres in Punjab and 100Acres in NWFP.
As far as the displacement of people is concerned the people have in their minds the
problems faced after the construction of Tarbela new model village should be
constructed to resettle the effected families with facilities of water supply, electricity,
roads, dispensaries, schools etc.
8. DIAMER BASHA DAM:
The project is located on Indus River, about 315 Km upstream of Tarbela Dam, 165 Km
downstream of Gilgit and 40 Km downstream of Chilas. The dam would have a maximum
height of 270meters and impound a reservoir of about 7.4 maf, with live storage of more
than 6.4 maf. Mean annual discharge of Indus River at the site is 50 maf. The dam will
impound 15 % of the annual river flow. The dam project would cover an area of 110 Km
and extend 100 Km upstream of the dam site up to Raikot Bridge on Karakoram
highway.
The estimate cost is $ 6.5 billion. It will affect 30 villages and 2200 houses. It will also
affect 22000 people. The total area under reservoir will be 25000 acre and it will
generate 16500 Gwh/ year.
Benefits:
1) Availability of 6.5MAF annual surface water storage to supplement irrigation supplies
during low flow periods.
2) Clean and cheap energy through 4500 MW generations.
3) Deduction of dependence on thermal power thus, saving foreign exchange.
4) Employment opportunity, particularly to the locals, during the construction and
operations.
5) Creation of masses infrastructure leading to overall socioeconomic uplift of the area
and standard of living of people.
6) Flood control.
9. CONCLUSION:
The government has drawn up a 25-year plan (2005-2030) for increasing energy
production in the country. That is needed to meet the demand for energy which is
increasing by ten to twelve per cent annually, says Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. That is
one of the major development plans.
The energy development plan is accompanied by initial cost estimates which will be $37
billion to $40 billion that has to come in the form of foreign aid or foreign investment. And
that is a very large sum. But the annual average expenditure works out to $1.5 billion. If
Pakistan itself was to make the investment, the total cost might be less.
Disclosing the details of the 25-year energy augmentation plan Shaukat Aziz says
consumption of power in Pakistan will increase seven fold by 2030 and the energy needs
will increase by eight fold.
Malthus stated that in the race between increasing population and increasing production,
population must eventually win. Those of us who decline to accept this pessimistic view
recognize the difficulty of the practical problem of meeting the needs of an ever-expanding
population.
 The present government needs to be appreciated that it has ended the dead lock wit
inauguration of Diamer Basha Dam. It is hoped that Govt. would make an effort to remove
the apprehensions the provinces and construct other dams too.
There should be public consensus on national issue and to look into the matters with
contempt as enemies are working against the prosperous future of Pakistan. We as a
nation need to unite as one to defeat their nefarious aims.

Environmental Issues of pakistan

A number of serious environmental problems are inherent in the country, which are of
great ecological concern in terms of its sustainable economic future. These include soil
erosion, pesticide misuse, deforestation, desertification, urban pollution, waterlogging &
salinity, freshwater pollution and marine water pollution, just to name a few. The major
constraint to overcoming these problems, in-fact perhaps the main contributor to their
intensity is the population growth, which is very high in contrast to the natural limited
resources that are available to the people. Also included in the constraints is the
unsustainable use and management of these resources. Around 140 million people live in
this country, making it the seventh most populous country in the world. The rate of
population growth is one of the fastest and according to estimates it would double in just
25 years (UNDP 1997). What is obvious from this is, if the population continues to grow
at this rate, it would take a severe toll in the environment. The reason being that the
country is not endowed with the resources required sustaining a huge population.
Although it is primarily an agricultural country, the landscape is predominantly arid.
Water, already a scarce commodity in most parts of the country, is now facing further
shortages. This is also due in part to inadequate distribution and the coercion of the
water-tanker mafia. This shortage is hindering the country's potential to develop
agriculture. There are limited indigenous sources of energy, fossil fuel reserves are low
and there is no great potential in the biomass energy.

The combination of a large population and poor resource environment means that
judicious means of energy use and minimum waste systems of production as well as
lifestyles must be employed for sustainable development. The picture in Pakistan is
however very different in fact totally opposite to this. Energy use is excessively
inefficient; Pakistan's GDP per unit energy used is 4.0, which ranks it 69th out of 110
countries for which data is aviablable . (UNDP). This waste of energy is combined with
the need to import fossil fuels and as a consequence there is a very low productive per
capita use of energy.

The use of raw materials is also inefficient and many reusable resources are discarded as
waste. Only 3% of the industrial plants meet international waste treatment standards.
There are serious effluent problems and lack of sanitation affecting the natural resources
and posing unmitigated health risks.

Water
Land
Economic Loss
Poverty and Environment
Health Issues
WATER

"With finite fresh water resources on the one hand, and increasing demand, both in
quantity and variety of uses, on the other, the need for water resources protection and
management has never been greater. Major clashes over dwindling supplies of water
May well constitute the source of future conflicts between nations"

(Elizabeth Dowdeswell-Executive Director

UN Environment Programme)

|| Fresh Water Pollution || Marine Pollution ||

The main water sources in Pakistan are rivers, glaciers, rainfall and groundwater. The
rainfall pattern is extreme due to the varied topography of the country. Average rainfall
is between 50 to 1000 mm but in the isolated northern mountains it may exceed 2000
mm. On the other hand the dry areas receive less than 125 mm on an average. Almost
75% of the country receive less than 250 mm annually. The rainfall is dependent on the
two monsoon seasons, the most important being the Southwestern monsoon between
June to September. The high temperatures mean that there is high evaporation, which
leads to loss of water everywhere.

Pakistan occupies the basin of three major rivers, which is of considerable importance to
the country. Indus (70% of total land area), Kharan closed basin (15% of the total land
area) and the Makran coastal basin (15% of the total land area) are the three basins,
with the Indus basin representing the largest potential. It mainly draws its water from
snowmelt and precipitation. The surface waters of the rivers have not been exploited, as
they are seasonal and irregular. The Indus Water Treaty (1960) between India and
Pakistan has restricted Pakistan's access to the water in the Indus basin, to the Indus,
Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The combined annual average flow of these and River Kabul
is 178 bil cu m ( Asim R. Khan, M. Kaleem Ullah, Saim Muhammad ). The country also
boasts the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, comprising the Indus, its
tributaries, 19 barrages and headworks, and 43 canals (Dr. Noor Ahmad Memon- The
News- Rawalpindi Islamabad-26/01/98).

Around 90% of the food and fibre production depend on irrigation. Irrigated land is
82.3% of the total arable land and surface water is mainly relied upon for irrigation. The
irrigation water available per irrigated acre has risen to 35% from the 1960s. Out of the
water tapped from the Indus basin, only 30% actually reaches the roots of the crop. The
majority is either lost in canals or when it is being applied to the fields (PNCS- Where we
are, where we should be and how to get there ). 90% of the groundwater is already
being used through tube-wells. In any case, groundwater has a higher salt content.
When it is used in fields it leaves behind a high level of salts after evaporation, thus
increasing soil salinity. According to certain researches, operational water losses are 50 -
60% with the majority occurring in fields, canals and water courses (The News -
Islamabad-26/01/98).

Considering Pakistan's environmental scenario, it becomes increasingly obvious that

water issues are the most pressing. Human health, agriculture, rangelands, forests,
waterbodies, and aquatic life, in fact the whole ecosystem is affected by problems
associated with water. Not only is there a scarcity of drinking water but pollution of
water bodies by effluents from industries and the sewerage system have compounded
the problem.

Freshwater Pollution

Chemical waste:

Almost all chemical waste is dumped untreated into the river system from where it is
taken out to sea. A large number of industries discharge deadly and toxic waste into
storm-drains, open nullahs or in the Lyari and Malir rivers. These include leather tanning
units, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, refineries, chemical, textile, paper and pulp,
engineering works and thermal power plants. The Lyari River has become a putrid and
toxic gutter due to discharge of effluents. Solid waste also finds its way into the water
system. The first environmental assessment study in the country was conducted at the
SITE industrial area to record the effect of industrial wastewater on Karachi's vegetation
(Dr. S.A. Qadir). The chemical analysis revealed that there were traces of heavy metals
such as chromium and nickel in the vegetable samples. Invariably, this showed that that
the industries were not using any pollution control measures whatsoever. Untreated
industrial waste is not only affecting the environment but ultimately is also having its toll
on the country's health, by polluting the water bodies. This renders them useless for
human consumption and irrigation. Consequently, it is responsible for the many water
borne diseases that plague the country and account for 60% of infant deaths.

The industrial waste is also used to irrigate some vegetable and fruit farms that have
cropped up in the Korangi Industrial Area. These fruit and vegetables show a presence of
metals and other toxins. A study conducted by IUCN suggests that spinach from Korangi
farms contains as much as 87.48 mg/l of chromium (Bhagwandas - Dawn 7/01/98), a lot
more than that harvested in other areas.

Sewage:

The discharge of sewage and contaminated water in rivers and water bodies not only
affects marine production, use of such water for agriculture results in the contamination
of the food chain. In Pakistan, sewage water is re-channelled to irrigate crops, which
contaminates them with pathogens. As a result 50% of the crops are contaminated.
Groundwater may also be contaminated by untreated sewage. Water borne diseases are
the largest killers in the country and health problems resulting from polluted water cost
a large amount of money.

Karachi produces discharge of wastewater of 300 mil gallons per day and Lahore 240 mil
gallons per day. There are three sewerage plants in Karachi but they are able to treat
only 45 MGD (15% of the total wastewater). Of particular interest are the rivers Ravi and
Kabul. They have sustained life for thousands of years and the historical city of Lahore is
based around the Ravi. Today, Lahore and Peshawar discharge their wastewater into
these rivers increasing their BOD level to 193-100mg/l for Ravi. The level allowed by the
NEQS is 80 mg/l! There is an annual loss of 5000 tonnes of fish catch from this river. No
life exists in it for 7 miles downstream.

Agricultural run-off/pesticides:

Indiscriminate use of pesticides and fertilisers ensure that agricultural run-off from fields
also contributes to water pollution. Extensive use of agricultural chemicals has already
started affecting aquifers.

The climate of the country ranges from heat, humidity and rainfall, either resulting in
arid lands or providing favourable conditions for irrigated agriculture. This in turn means
a thriving pest population. Estimates suggest that around one-third of the yield is
destroyed by pests or disease (Karam Ahad and Dr. Yousuf Hayat Khan -The News,
Rawalpindi Islamabad, 12-01-1998). To overcome this problem, pesticides have
developed into a major agricultural product (80 % are used on cotton alone). Introduced
in 1954 at the onset of the green revolution, pesticide consumption in Pakistan rose from
3677 metric tonnes in 1981 to 14745 metric tonnes in 1991. In rupee terms this
equalled 4581 million rupees. By 1996 this had gone up to 43219 metric tonnes, Rs.
9987 million (Karam Ahad and Dr. Yousuf Hayat Khan -The News, Rawalpindi Islamabad,
12-01-1998). An exhaustive study conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) of the United Nations found that pesticide use in Pakistan increased 1,169 percent
between 1981 and 1999.
When DDT (Dichloro Diphenyl Trichloroethane) was first made in the 1880s it was
considered a 'magical' insecticide. Chemist Paul Miller introduced it for the first time in
1938, an act that resulted in a Nobel Prize for him. At that time it helped to save millions
of people from typhus and malaria (Karam Ahad and Dr. Yousuf Hayat Khan -The News,
Rawalpindi Islamabad, 12-01-1998). Insecticides and pesticides thus became popular
both as fight against diseases as well as saving crops from pests. It took around forty
years to strike, that these substances also had side effects after Racheal Carson
published Silent Spring, in 1962. It soon became apparent that new pests with greater
resistance were emerging in addition to soil, air and water being contaminated and
predators of the pests being eliminated. The environment and biodiversity of the planet
was being destroyed which ultimately might have more adverse consequences.

A World Health Organisation (WHO) study revealed that two million people suffered from
pesticide poisoning and 40,000 die per year. Most of these were from developing
countries, which have been urged to buy pesticides from corporations from the
developed world. The pesticides are carcinogenic and mutagenic causing sterility, low
fertility, skin cancer, immune and hormonal system disorder. In Pakistan, pesticide
residues have been found in water, soil and even food commodities. The situation is
worse here because many of these are either sold under generic names or are fake and
adulterated.

Marine Pollution

The seas have been used as dumps for ages, mainly due to the misconception that they
are so large, whatever is put into them gets diluted. However, the truth of the matter is
that most of the contaminated water entering the sea has a density different to that of
the natural seawater. This means that it does not mix and in fact settles down at the
bottom of the ocean as sludge, which may be 1.5 foot deep in certain areas
(Bhagwandas - Dawn - 7/01/98).

Much of the water from the rivers finds its way down to the sea, taking with it all the
toxic effluents. There have been major changes in the coastal environment in the last
200 years. Some of them are due to natural causes such as the gradual change in course
of the River Indus, which moved to the southeast of Karachi. Main causes are diverting
the water of the river for irrigation and extensive pollution. The coastal pollution is
mainly confined to the Karachi Harbour, which encloses an area of 62 km 2 . It stretches
from sandspit in the west to Chinna Creek in the east. A variety of effluents from
domestic sources, and waste from visiting ships (estimated 2,500 annually) all
contribute to the depressing state of the harbour especially around the Manora Channel.
The Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) uses 150,000 gallons of seawater for cooling.
Liquid waste and hot water from the plant is subsequently discharged into the sea.

Domestic sources of marine pollution:

Metal scrap
Rust from shipping yard
Oil and liquid waste from fish processing plants
Industrial effluents
Solid waste
Spillage of grains
Visiting ships:

Waste oil
Deck washing
Garbage
Oil:
It is estimated that 90,000 tonnes of oil products from vessels and port terminals are
dumped into the harbour every year. In addition, there is also the threat of oil pollution
from other countries especially the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

Sewage:

An estimated 200 million gallons (Environmental Assessment and Protection of Karachi

Harbour, Neville Burt 1997) of raw sewage enters Karachi harbour mainly through Lyari
River and Chinna Creek. There is no non-saline (freshwater) input except for the local
run-off from rainfall.

Solid Waste:

Plastic bags are found all over the harbour and are not only an eyesore but also
damaging to marine life. A wide-diversity of garbage including wood and plastic are also
apparent. The garbage originates from the municipal waste and port activities. Water
circulation and wind driven currents concentrate this in certain parts of the harbour,
making it unsightly and dangerous to ships as it can get stuck in propellers. It can be
expected that there is also significant amount of solid waste, which will have sunk to the
bed of the harbour (Environmental Assessment and Protection of Karachi Harbour,
Neville Burt 1997).

Toxic metals:

According to a PCSIR (1999) study, huge amounts of toxic metals have been found in
the marine life, such as fish, lobster, crabs and shrimp. The metals include mercury,
cadmium, chromium, lead, arsenic, and zinc. Many of these metals are carcinogens and
can cause genetic deformities and other fatal diseases. They are mainly released by the
industrial estates. Hardly 2% of these industries have the facilities to treat their effluents
before releasing.

The results of all of these pollutants are that microorganisms (planktons) consume them
and they enter the food chain. An IUCN study of fishmeal (made of locally caught fish)
used as feed for poultry discovered that it had 33 ppm of chromium. High levels of
chromium were found in chicken and eggs as well (Bhagwandas - Dawn - 7/01/98).
LAND

Land degradation puts countless obstacles in the sustainable production capacity of the
agriculture sector. Wind and water erosion, waterlogging and salinity, deforestation and
desertification all accelerate the degradation process.

Deforestation

"The world is green and beautiful and God has appointed you his stewards over it. He
sees how you acquit yourselves " (Muslim)

Forests, scrub and planted trees on farmland constitute about 4.2 million hectares
(4.8%) of the country (Forest Sector Master Plan GOP 1992 from Environmental Profile
of Pakistan 1998). The majority (40%) of the forests are either coniferous or scrub.
Irrigated plantations and riverine & coastal forests make up the rest. 1.78 million
hectares is covered by hill forests which include species such as deodar, fir, blue pine,
spruce, juniper, chir pine, oak and horse chestnut (The Nature of Pakistan). These
forests grow in the watershed areas protecting the fragile mountain ecosystem and
helping abate floods and droughts. They are a major source of timber, fuelwood and
resin and this, coupled with the increasing grazing requirements is posing a major
threat.
The foothill forests (comprising acacia and kau) are also subjected to over-grazing.
Shisham and mulberry (in Punjab) and babul and eucalyptus (in Sindh) make up the
man-made irrigated forests and are mainly used for fuelwood and timber for the
furniture and sports-goods industries.

Although different figures suggest that the per capita use of timber is the lowest in the
world, the declining rate of woody biomass is the second highest in the world. Two
studies have shown that it is between 4%-6% per year (GOP 1992, Hosier 1993 from
Biodiversity Action Plan). Almost 7,000 to 9,000 hectares are deforested every year and
this rate is especially severe in the north where the per capita consumption for fuelwood
is 10 times higher due to the severe winter. The following factors are the main causes of
deforestation.

Fuelwood

According to the two studies, consumption for household firewood exceeds production in
all provinces except the Northern Areas, which are sparsely populated. Due to the
increase in population, consumption would probably go up to 3% per year. Pakistan's
woody biomass may be totally consumed within the next 10-15 years.

Timber

Another adverse factor is the lopping of trees for commercial purposes. Pakistan has a
thriving timber market and many a time; illegal logging takes place to support the
market and to make a fast buck. The high price of timber has greatly accelerated forest
depletion.

The timber business goes back to colonial times. After partition when the princely states
such as Chitral, Dir, and Swat were abolished, the change in rule created a vacuum in
the management of the forests. This accelerated the depletion of the reserves. The state
had the legal ownership of the forests, however, it disregarded the needs of the local
people. While under princely rule, the emphasis of forest management was on
supporting the local economy, now it shifted to being a revenue-generating source for
the government. Investment in forest conservation was inconsequential as compared to
their harvest.

Livestock grazing

Unrestricted livestock grazing is also a severe threat. Trees have always been chopped
down to allow grass to grow, in order to feed livestock. In some cases forests are set on
fire for this purpose also and the rate has gone beyond sustainability in many areas. In
addition forests are also cleared for agriculture.

Regional case studies also portray a dismal picture. A study of the Siran project area
(Hazara, NWFP), shows a 52% decline in the resource between 1967 and 1992. If this
continues at the present pace, the Siran forests will disappear by the year 2005 (Archer
1996). Similar cases are present in the Kaghan Valley and Allai Valley. Plantation
survival rates are well below the 75 % target set by the Household Energy Strategy
Study (HESS).

There is a similar trend present in the mangrove forests of the Indus Delta, which has
halved from 2,600 square kilometres in the late 1970s to 1,300 in the 1990s. The
depletion is mainly due to the grazing by camels (16,000) owned by the local
communities and consumption as fuelwood.

The scrub forest is mainly consumed for grazing, especially in the winter, and reduced
water allocation is adversely affecting riverine forests. 50% of the original riverine
forests have been degenerated beyond economic viability.

More than half of the remaining mangroves forests, more than two-thirds of riverain
forests and more than nine -tenths of remaining coniferous forests have less than 50%
cover

These are government figures and discrepancy is usually found in government and actual
figures as the government defines figures according to legal rather than biological
criteria.

Desertification

Desertification is a process that turns productive land into non-productive desert. It

occurs mainly in semi-arid areas (mean rainfall less than 600 mm) bordering on deserts.
The arid and semi-arid rangelands in Pakistan show signs of being strained. The threat of
overgrazing, over-harvesting and overstocking of the natural vegetation is aggravating
the situation. The change in grazing practices has virtually reduced some areas in the
Cholistan desert to sand dunes. According to one estimate more than 60% of the natural
grazing areas of the country have production levels lower than one third of their
biological potential. More than one-third of the country has been classified as under risk
of desertification (45 million hectares). Deforestation, over cultivation, excessive cutting
of fuelwood and incorrect irrigation practices all have a share in this problem.

Soil Erosion

Around 15.9 million hectares of land (18% of total) affected by soil erosion. Out of this,
11,172,000 hectares affected by water erosion, while 4760,000 hectares affected by
wind erosion.

Soil erosion is taking place at an alarming rate and is mainly due to deforestation in the
north. Water erosion is prominent on steep slopes such as the Potohar track and
surrounding areas, an area extensively used for cultivation. Water erosion and poor land
management is also affecting watersheds in the upper Indus River and its tributaries.
The highest recorded rate of erosion is in the Indus catchment between the Tarbela
reservoir and 90 - km upstream where soil loss is estimated to be 150-165
tonnes/hectare/year. Overall, 28% of soil is being lost to water. 14% of the storage
capacity of Tarbela was lost within 10 years of being completed. The Indus River carried
the fifth largest load of sediment (4.49t/h) in the world in 1990. According to some
estimates the Indus is adding 500,000 tonnes of sediment to the Tarbela Reservoir every
day, reducing the life of the dam by 22% and the capacity of reservoir by 16%.

Wind erosion has a relatively lower impact than water erosion. However, the combination
of the two is more devastating. This reduces the productivity of the land by 1.5-7.5%
per year. This affects almost one-fifth of the Punjab.

Waterlogging and Salinity

These problems usually occur together and are a result of intensive and continuous use
of surface irrigation. Some experts consider them more important than soil erosion
because they occur in the most productive areas of the Indus Basin. More than 2 million
hectares of land is waterlogged (JRC 1989d), and the inefficient historical planning of the
irrigation system is the culprit. It is 100 years old with unlined canals, resulting in the
seepage of water into the topsoil,. Salinity usually follows. When the water evaporates
the salts are left behind and the area becomes unfit for agriculture. In over 25% of the
Indus basin the water table has risen to 2 m of the soil surface, resulting inn 40,000
hectares of land being lost annually to both these problems. In some areas it has gone
up to I m. Over 5.7 million hectares of land are salt affected and 2.4 million hectares is
highly saline according to the Soil Survey of Pakistan. The soil of 13.6 million hectares
within the Gross Command Area was surveyed, which revealed that 3.1 million hectares
(23%) was saline. 23% of this was in Sindh and 13% in the Punjab.

Waterlogging and salinity pose serious threats to the primarily agricultural economy and
may also affect the remaining forests in the basin. In any case, the increase in this
problem could mean the clearing up of the adjacent forests to make room for more
agricultural land.

Because of the gravity of the situation, measures have been taken to rectify this problem
as a result of which a large area of land has been reclaimed through the Salinity Control
and Reclamation Programmes

Area of the Forest

Forest Area (million hectares)

Total forests, scrub and planted trees 4.2
Natural and modified coniferous scrub, riverain and mangrove forests 3.5
Tall tree forests
Sparse cover (50% cover)

Good quality tall tree (50% cover)

2.4 (2.7%)
2 (four fifths)

0.4

Scrub forests 1.1

Plantations 0.7

(Forest Sector Master Plan GOP 1992)

Land Degradation Process

Land Degradation Process Area Affected (000 hectares)

Water erosion 11,171.8
Wind erosion 4,760.5
Salinity and sodicity 5,327.7
Waterlogging (water table within 1.5 m) 1,554.3
Flooded 2,557
Pounding 936
Nutrient degradation 2,218

(Mian and Mirza 1993)

ECONOMIC LOSS

All of the above environmental issues combined with certain others mean that Pakistan is
swiftly heading towards more economic instability.

Due to environmental degradation and poor resource management Pakistan continues to

suffer economic loss. The impacts of degradation and biodiversity loss on productivity
and public health are in the tune of 3% of GDP per year. This however is a conservative
estimate and it would be higher if toxic waste disposal, biodiversity, river and coastal
resource depletion were taken into account. Health problems due to polluted water have
the economic cost of $ 750 million per annum approximately. This combined with air
pollution leads to a cost of $ 1.05 billion. Moreover, for an agricultural country, water is
of immense economic value. The agriculture sector has been growing at the rate of 20 %
for the past 20 years, but this is heading towards a downfall because water and land
have been overused and wasted. Loss of productivity and health problems related to
water is around 68% of the total negative impact of environmental degradation.

The productivity lost as a result of land degradation is US $ 353 mil/year, according to

estimates (Environment Prof.1998). Estimated loss of rangeland productivity is between
US $ 90 - 160 million/year. Forests are also of great agricultural importance and their
continuous destruction is causing a substantial loss. Forestry had a share of 1.3% in
agriculture and 0.3 % in the GDP in 2002-2003.

Fisheries are of great commercial importance as well forming the fourth largest export
from the country. Shrimp export form 80% of the total fish exports. The decline in their
populations because of pollution and over-fishing is likely to cost the country dearly. 40
species of fish recorded at the coast are considered of economic importance. The amount
earned from the export of fish in 1996-1997 was US $ 140 million. However, the
situation is now quite aggravating. If the unchecked fishing continues and the pollution is
not abated Pakistan is likely to suffer huge monetary losses, something it cannot afford.

Certain other issues of extreme importance in Pakistan also have an impact on the
environment. Among these the prominent ones are poverty, urban migration and the
growing population
Poverty and Environment

Pakistan is a low-income country and out of 78 developing countries it was ranked 64 th

in the 1997 Human Poverty Index, signifying that 34% of the population lives below the
poverty line. According to latest estimates, 47.5% of the people live below the poverty
line, which means that minimum income per person is Rs. 50. (Dr. Munir Ahmad, Islamic
Society of Satistical Sciences - Dawn Lahore, August 14, 1999)
Incidence of poverty in the urban areas is highest in Punjab and lowest in NWFP in the
rural areas
Percentage of households below the poverty line in rural areas:
> Punjab 31%
> Balochistan 27%
> Sindh 18%
> NWFP 15%

Incidence of poverty on the urban areas is highest in Punjab and lowest in Sindh
Percentage of urban households below the poverty line:
> Punjab 25%
> Balochistan 23%
> NWFP 14%
> Sindh 10%

Poverty, combined with population increases, land constraints and lack of appropriate
technology results in environmental degradation. The degrading environment not only
affects population but also the national economy.
The total loss due to environmental degradation is estimated to be 3.4% per annum of
GDP (UN 1997).
Factors leading to Poverty

Poverty is a major concern in the environmental degradation of the country. Conversely,

environmental degradation and poor natural resource base is the third most important
factor contributing to rural poverty (Jazairy 1992).

Population Growth

Pakistan is the 7 th most populous country in the world and 4 th most densely
populated. The population is around 140 million and the density is 169.93 persons/km.
Birth rate has remained fairly constant since 1947, however, the crude death rate has
dropped by 50% resulting in the 3% annual growth rate. The UN estimates that with the
same growth rate Pakistan would become the third most populous country in the world
by 2050.

This growth combined with the falling quality and quantity of resources, results in
resource capture whereby elite groups alter the distribution of resources in their favour
and exploit them commercially beyond their sustainable capacity. This ecologically
marginalises the poor or weaker groups. They suffer from extreme poverty as a result
and either rely on common resources or move to other areas (mainly urban). The
resulting high population density in the receiving areas generates further environmental
damage and poverty. The poor become vulnerable and fulfil their immediate needs
regardless of the long-term impacts of the process through which these needs are met.
Scarcity of resources induces parents to have more children in order to have more
'hands' available. Population growths in rural areas means lower farm supplies and
consequently people are pushed towards agriculture intensification.

Impacts on health

The poor cannot deal with the impacts of a degraded environment. Their habitats are
environmentally vulnerable and they do not have access to many facilities. As a result
they are prone to diseases because they reside in low-income houses usually in
industrial areas and have little choice in the quality of their nutritional intake. This
increases their vulnerability to diseases, which they do not have the capacity to treat.
They have minimum access to health services and spend long hours in polluted work
places (factories) or work as unskilled labour. In the rural areas also, the poor usually
work as labour on somebody else's farm and the incessant use of pesticides and
fertilisers increases their exposure to health risks.

Degradation of the urban environment

Urban growth is estimated to be 4.6% per annum. This is mainly a consequence of the
high rate of rural-urban migration that contributes to the rapid decay of urban
environment. Estimates indicate that 6 million (16%) people are unemployed and this is
expected to increase by 500,000 annually. The increase in population, unemployment,
and pressure on agricultural lands means migration to urban areas.

The migrants usually are poor and are forced to live in urban slums. Out of the total
population 45% of the people in Sindh and 50% in Punjab live in one-room houses. They
often are not linked to water supplies and sanitation. The reason is their lack of financial
resources and the administration does not provide these because that might give them
legal status. They also do not invest in their residences as they either do not have the
money or are afraid of being evicted.

When the utility services are not available, unhealthy practices are adopted. Waste is
dumped out in the open and becomes a source of water contamination.

Insecure land ownership

It is important to have land ownership security to ensure proper land management

practices. Usually, absentee landlords who give it to the landless villagers on lease own
land in the rural areas. Since this is for the short term, the villagers have no incentive to
invest in soil conservation, afforestation and other such practices. The government also
does not provide any incentives to encourage investment in land and resource
conservation.
HEALTH ISSUES

Water contamination causes serious problems and water supply standards set by WHO
are rarely met (SDPI 1995). 50% of the population has access to piped water (Dr.
Mehboob Ul Haq - 1997) and the rural water supply coverage in 1997-98 was 90%
according to an appraisal done by the World Bank (Human Development Index, 2003).
However this did not take into account the private sector's provision of potable
water.The surveys by UNICEF/Ministry of Health, give different indications. In the 1995
survey by UNICEF (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey), it was revealed that 17% of the
rural households have piped water and 52% had family handpumps (Social Development
in Pakistan, 1999).

Water quality is deteriorating due to biological contamination from human waste,

chemical pollutants from industries and agricultural inputs, salinity and siltation. Piped
water also gets contaminated because pipes are laid very close to sewerage lines or
open drains and chemicals like chlorine, which is mixed to kill bacteria, corrode the
supply lines. 62% (UNDP) or 33% (Haq, 1997) of the people have access to sanitation
and only 55% to health services. (Haq 1997, UNDP 1997). In the HDI it is reported that
approximately 65% of Pakistan's population has access to essential medicine. 45% of
infant deaths have been attributed to diarrhoea and 60% to overall infectious
waterborne diseases. 25-30% of the diseases are gastro-intestinal in nature (WHO).

Infant Deaths
Rate

During first four weeks of life

57%

First six months

>two-thirds

Before first year

One in ten

Under five
137/1000

(Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 1990-9

Diseases such as malaria, diarrhoea and chronic respiratory infections are common in
rural areas and areas with a wide ratio of persons per room. Respiratory infections in
rural areas are related to smoky indoor atmosphere whereas in the urban areas they are
due to increased vehicular emissions and dust from unregulated cement manufacture
and construction work.

Hazards to Health within the Urban Environment

Biological pathogens or pollutants within the human environment that impair human
health-including pathogenic agents and their vectors (and reservoirs)-for instance the
many pathogenic microorganisms in human excreta, airborne pathogens (for instance
those responsible for acute respiratory infections and tuberculosis) and disease vectors
such as malaria-carrying ( Anopheline ) mosquitoes.
Chemical pollutants within the human environment - including those added to the
environment by human activities (e.g., industrial wastes) and chemical agents present in
the environment independent of human activities.
The availability, cost and quality of natural resources on which human health depends -
for instance food, water and fuel.
Physical hazards (e.g., high risks of flooding in houses and settlements built on
floodplains or of mud slides or landslides for houses on slopes.
Aspects of the built environment with negative impacts on physical and psycho-social
health (e.g., overcrowding, inadequate protection against noise, inadequate provision of
infrastructure, services and common areas).
Natural resource degradation (e.g., soil and water quality) caused by wastes from city-
based producers or consumers which impacts on the health/livelihood of some urban
dwellers.
National/global environmental degradation with more indirect but long term influences
on human health:
the depletion of finite non-renewable resource bases
wastes from human activities that contribute to possible threats to the functioning and
stability of global cycles and systems and the increasing frequency of extreme climatic
conditions (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions and gaseous emissions that contribute to the
depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer).
Source: Impact on health of urban environments , D. Satterthwaite; Environment and
Urbanization, Vol 5, No 2; Health and wellbeing in cit

Conservation efforts
"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the
world.Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has" (Margaret Mead)

Even though the picture is dismal, activities for the conservation of the environment do
take place. There are many NGOs working for the conservation of the environment. The
Government has also established certain rules and regulations and proper authorities for
environmental conservation. Following are a few examples of environmental work.

Mangla Watershed Project 1961

This project was set up to increase the life of the Mangla Reservoir, by the Water and
Power Development Authority (WAPDA). After intensive studies, appropriate techniques
were underlined to protect landholdings from soil erosion. The landowners were
consulted and the watershed area was divided into sub-watersheds, which were then
worked upon, according to the degree of erosion, slopes and gullies. The result was a
decrease in the sedimentation of the Mangla reservoir by 19%. Now the reservoir's life
has increased from 110 to 170 years.

The Wildlife Enquiry Committee (WEC)

In 1969 the government formed the WEC, to recommend the legal and administrative
measures necessary to protect the country's wildlife. The WEC drafted legislation on
which the provincial wildlife acts and ordinances were enacted and various categories of
protected areas were created. The Committee also formed the National Council for the
Conservation of Wildlife (NCCW), responsible for coordination and liaison work at the
provincial and federal level. The NCCW has had a major role on getting the wildlife
concerns incorporated into national policies.

The World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan (WWF P)

The Pakistan Wildlife Appeal, a voluntary organisation became affiliated with WWF-
International in 1970 and that is how WWF-P came into existence. One of its first efforts
was the recommendation for the creation of the Hazarganji-Chiltan National Park in
Balochistan. Since then WWF-P has come a long way and now has a presence in almost
all environmental issues. It has now become one of Pakistan's largest NGOs.

Ramsar Convention Signed

The Ramsar Convention is the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance
Especially as Waterfowl Habitat . It was formed to prevent the encroachment into
wetlands and ensure their conservation. The Government of Pakistan signed the
convention in 1976 and as such has designated 8 wetlands in the country, such as Haleji
and Kinjhar lakes.

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Flora and Fauna (CITES)

This convention is a breakthrough to prevent the exploitation of endangered species of

wild animals and plants by international trade. Pakistan became a signatory to this
convention in 1976, and this provided NGOs working in this sector opportunity to
monitor illegal traffic in endangered species.

Indus Dolphin Project (IDP)

In 1977 the Indus Dolphin Project was born after Giorgio Pilleri's scientific expedition
(1974) revealed that in the stretch of 170 km of Indus there was a total of only 150
dolphins. This discovery led the government to mark them as endangered species and
declare the area between the Sukkar and Guddo barrages as dolphin reserve. The IDP
still continues today and has resulted in controlling the decline of this endemic mammal.
The numbers have now reached the 500 mark.

Orangi Pilot Project (OPP)

The Orangi Pilot Project is one of the first NGOs in Pakistan to promote participatory
development. Dr. Akhtar Hameed Khan with a dedicated team energised the residents of
Orangi to transform their locality. Orangi was an urban slum in Karachi and its condition
was similar to other such urban dwellings. Through the project open sewers were
replaced by a low cost sewage system. The residents did most of the work with the OPP
staff providing technical assistance. Other programmes in the areas of education, family
planning social forestry and microcredit were also initiated. Today OPP and its team are
working with 35 such areas and have also been requested by the government to assist
the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board in upgrading its sewerage system.

Marine Turtle Conservation Project

The Sindh Wildlife Department started this project in 1980 to protect the turtles that
come to nest on Karachi's beaches. It is now in its seventeenth year of operation. The
staff collects turtle eggs from the beaches and rebury them in secure enclosures. The
hatchlings are then counted, weighed and measured and released into the sea. The
project has managed to release 430,000 hatchlings into the sea and tagged 2,000
mother turtles.

Aga Khan Rural Support Programme (AKRSP)

The main objective of this programme was to bring sustainable development into the
northern areas. They aim to maximise the productive capacity of the land through
interventions in the field of natural resource management and also enable communities
to practice subsistence farming. AKRSP has a clearly defined participatory process and
their efforts have borne fruit by changing the face of the northern areas. They have
formed over 3000 village and women organisations that have savings of more than Rs.
336 million. AKRSP 's success has been the basis of other programmes such as the
National Rural Support Programme and the Balochistan Rural Support Programme.

Torghar Conservation Project (TCP)

This project was started by a group of volunteers in the Torghar Hills in Balochistan to
control the illegal hunting of the markhor and urial, which had resulted in marked
decreases in the two species. In 1994 an NGO called the Society for Torghar
Environmental Protection (STEP) was formed to administer the project. Here too the
community participation is visible. The local people were employed as game guards to
protect an area of about a 1000 sq. km. Strictly controlled hunting is allowed to provide
the locals with an income. There has been a trophy harvest of only 40 animals in twelve
years and STEP has been able to enforce a complete ban on unauthorised hunting.
According to a survey conducted in 1994 the population of both the species has gone up
from 100 animals to 1900.

Kirthar National Park

This park is one of Pakistan's protected areas and also a reason for many controversies.
A plan to build the Indus Highway was initiated to link the Northern Areas to Karachi.
Part of the road was to pass through the park, which would have seriously endangered
its biodiversity. The issue was exposed by the media and NGO such as the WWF filed
litigation cases against the construction through the park. These cases forced the
government to conduct an Environmental Impact Assessment, which revealed that the
economic benefits of the highway were far less then the negative impacts it would have.

National Conservation Strategy

In the 1980s World Wildlife Fund (WWF), United Nations Environmental Programme
(UNEP) and IUCN-World Conservation Union collaborated to formulated the World
Conservation Strategy to 'save the world'. After IUCN started its work in Pakistan the
government and IUCN worked to formulate the National Conservation Strategy for
Pakistan over a three-year period. The NCS is a plan to integrate environmental
concerns into Pakistan's economy. The implementation of the strategy started with the
formation of institutions such as the Environmental Section in the Federal Planning and
Development Division and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

Pakistan ratified this convention in 1992 with 161 nations at the Earth Summit at Rio.
Consequently, Pakistan became a contributor and beneficiary to the Global
Environmental Facility (GEF) set up under the convention. It is also taking initiatives in
community level projects to conserve biodiversity.

Ghazi-Barotha Hydropower Project

The project has the capacity to produce 1,450 mw of electricity. With this project, the
Water and Power Department for the first time took efforts to study the environment and
to include environmental considerations.

UN Convention on Combating Desrtification (CCD)

This is an international treaty for collaborative action against damage and poverty in
drylands. Pakistan signed this in 1997 and is in the process of developing its National
Action Plan to fight desertification, which afflicts about 45 million hectares. A local NGO,
Society for Conservation and Protection of Environment (SCOPE) is active in this area.

Shehla Zia Case

This was a case filed against WAPDA to halt the construction of a grid station near a
residential area. The judgement given was in favour of the citizens and became a
landmark decision in the field of environmental law in the country. This case set the
precedent for subsequent environmental cases.

Maintaining Biodiversity with Rural Community Development.

IUCN - Pakistan and the Government of NWFP's Wildlife Department jointly implement
this project. Rural communities are active partners in this project and over 40 villages
were involved in the first two years.

Sarhad Provincial Conservation Strategy (SPCS)

In 1996, The Government of NWFP approached IUCN to formulate and implement the
SPCS. This was the principal plan to implement the National conservation Strategy. The
strategy has spurred the governments of Balochistan and the Northern Areas to emulate
this move.

Pakistan Environmental Protection Bill 1997 (PEPA)

PEPA supplements the 1983 Environmental Protection Ordinance with more functions for
the Environmental Protection Agencies, and new laws dealing with pollution. It also
rationalises the Environmental Protection Council

ESSAY ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION AND GLOBAL WARMING

1. INTRODUCTION:
Significant strides have been made in Pakistan for forwarding the environmental agenda
from being a stand-alone topic to one identifying itself as an integral element of the
national mainstream development with the recently launched Mid-Term Development
Framework for 2005-2010. This also lends itself to address sustainable environmental
development as a vehicle for economic growth. Several policies, plans, programs and
projects have been initiated for environmental protection and conservation in the sectoral
areas of water and air pollution control, land use, forest management, energy efficiency,
biodiversity conservation, and waste management, etc. In addition, Pakistans role in the
international community vis--vis its responsibilities for sustainable development has also
become known through the Governments show of commitment for instance on
biodiversity, drought and desertification, and climate change, etc.
Economic Survey (2005-06) stated, Sustainable development remains the cornerstone of
government policies, and the concern for environment, its protection, renewal and
enrichment is recognized as an obligation towards the betterment of all citizens. Concerns
of environment sustainability are integrated in the countrys development agenda and as
a crosscutting subject, are being addressed in all sectors of economy. The poverty-
environment nexus has been of particular interest in the recent years as poverty in
Pakistan, like in many other middle-income countries, plays an important role in increasing
the vulnerability of the poor to pollution and environmental degradation.

From formulating the National Conservation Strategy to becoming a signatory to many

international conventions/protocols/agreements, Pakistan has emerged as an active and
responsible player for environmental conservation. This responsiveness to global and
national environmental challenges has been supported through legislation, policy making
and creating institutional set up. National Environment Action Plan (NEAP) that was
initiated with the approval of the Pakistan Environment Protection Council and the UNDP
funded, NEAP Support Program (NEAP-SP) remains the flagship initiative of the
Government of Pakistan in the environment area. NEAP-SP focuses on a healthy
environment and a sustainable livelihood by improving the quality of air, water and land
with civil society cooperation. In this regard, the Initial Environmental Examination (IEE)
and the Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) have already been made mandatory for
public sector development projects.

2. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT POLICY:

One of the major achievements of NEAP-SP during 2005-06 was the formulation of the
National Environmental Policy 2005 which has been approved by the Federal Cabinet.
The countrys first ever Environmental Policy compliments the objectives of NEAP-SP and
addresses the sectoral issues such as (a) water management and conservations, (b)
energy efficiency and renewable, (c) agriculture and livestock, (d) forestry and plantation,
(e) biodiversity and protected areas, (f) climate change, air quality and noise, and (g)
pollution and waste management.

The policy also addresses other cross-sectoral issues such as (a) Population and
Environment, (b) Gender and Environment, (c) Health and Environment, (d) Trade and
environment, (e) Poverty and Environment and (f) Environment and Local Government.
NEAP-SP has also launched a number of Environment related projects in Wind Power,
Energy Conservation, Micro Hydro, Juniper Forests, Chilghoza Forests, through its partners
namely the Ministry of Water and Power, AEDB, Ministry of Science and technology and
the Ministry of Education. In the water sector, Pakistan is faced with severe water
shortages and water quality issues. The orientation of the water management institutions
and experts is largely toward harnessing the resource in the service of economic growth,
and not towards its conservation or quality. In addition, severe levels of water pollution
and unchecked industrial pollutants being released in water bodies have added an
immediate measure status to water management issues. Similarly, although making
headway in addressing ambient air quality in the country, Pakistan is struggling with
ineffective air quality management systems. Adding to this burden is the fact that at
present there is no continuous monitoring station present in the country and most of the
data reported is obtained from mobile monitoring units or spontaneous on-site sampling
with laboratories based results. A common issue for lack of compliance to water and air
quality monitoring and maintenance has been limited resources and persistent information
gap.
Other environmental sectors such as wetlands and mangroves are also faced with a similar
resource crunch and information and data inadequacies thereby negatively effecting the
policy and program implementation. Over fishing and polluted waters are contributing to
the reduction of productivity of the marine and inland fisheries. The precarious condition
of mangroves in coastal zone and the even more precarious status of certain aquatic
wildlife are but a few indicators of the rate of degradation.

3. COLLABORATION WITH INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY:

On the International front, Pakistan is a signatory to a number of Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and has acceded to other non-legally binding
instruments such as Agenda-21 Rio Principles and Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
aiming for sustainable development of natural resources. Among them are the United
Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Convention on International Trade in
Endangered Species of wild flora and fauna (CITES), United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), Convention on Migratory Species (CMS), Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,
Basel Convention on the Control of Trans-boundary Movement of Hazardous Wastes and
their Disposal, Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent for Certain Hazardous
Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, the Stockholm Convention on Persistent
Organic Pollutants (POPs), and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer.
Although constrained by issues such as lack of awareness, technical expertise, institutional
set-up/capacity, coordination among various concerned departments /organizations, and
a clear cut policy and plan of action for each MEA, yet Pakistan has taken several steps to
meet its obligations to the MEAs. Key actions include finalizing the National
Implementation Plan (NIP) to eliminate Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), meeting the
targets set by Montreal Protocol for the elimination of Ozone Depleting Substances,
implementing the Biodiversity Action Plan, finalizing the Action Plan for UNCCD; finalizing
the guidelines and rules for hospital waste management, and regular reporting to UNFCCC
through its National communication.

4. CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANNISM (CDM):

Following the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2006, Pakistan has established the
Designated National Authority (DNA) for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the
Ministry of Environment. National Operational Strategy for CDM has been approved by the
Prime Minister of Pakistan, which offers all support for attracting investments and
capitalizing the carbon business under the CDM initiative. The CDM Cell is working with
public and private sector partners for attracting investments in energy efficiency,
renewable and alternate energy, industries, forestry and agriculture together with
technology transfer and capacity building. The government of Pakistan has enhanced
budgetary allocations for the environment sector for the period 2005-2010, which will
significantly contribute towards ensuring the environmental sustainability.

5. IMPACT OF POLLUTION:
1) Air

One of the major environmental issues is degradation of ambient air quality particularly in
urban areas. The key factors contributing to air pollution in Pakistan are: a) rapidly growing
energy demand; b) increasing industrial and domestic demand and c) a fast growing
transport sector. In the cities, widespread use of low-quality fuel, combined with a
dramatic expansion in the number of vehicles on roads, has led to significant air pollution
problems. Air pollution levels in Pakistans most populated cities are among the highest in
the world and climbing, causing serious health issues. The levels of ambient particulates
smoke particles and dust, which cause respiratory disease are generally twice the
world average and more than five times as high as in industrial countries and Latin
America. Various surveys show that air pollution levels in cities have either crossed safe
limits or have reached the threshold values.

I. Suspended Particulate Matter:

The most serious issue of air quality in Pakistan is the presence of excessive Suspended
Particulate Matter (SPM) in the ambient air. The major sources of SPM are vehicles,
industry, burning of solid waste, brick kilns and natural dust. The origin of Suspended
Particulate Matter (SPM) may be a natural phenomenon, such as unpaved roads and places
uncovered by green grass or trees. Fine particles size of soil may be raised in the form of
dust cloud by driven motor vehicles and by strong wind blow. Other origins may be
considered coming from artificial emission of SPM such as emission gases including the
particulate matter from the motor vehicles and industrial activities.

II. Vehicular Pollution:

The major source of CO emission and particulate matters is from motor vehicles emission.
In Pakistan, the number of vehicles have jumped from 0.8 million to about 4.0 million
within 20 years showing an overall increase of more than 400%. The average compound
growth of vehicles is about 11 percent per annum. Since 1980, the maximum growth has
been seen in 2-stroke vehicles such as delivery vans, which are approximately 1,751%,
followed by motorcycles 541% and Rickshaws 159%. Diesel trucks and buses have also
increased at an alarming rate of 200-300% since 1980. Diesel vehicles due to overloading,
faulty injection nozzles and weak engines, emit excessive graphitic carbon (visible smoke).
Motorcycles and rickshaws, due to their two-stroke engines, are the most inefficient in
burning fuel and contribute most to emissions.

2) Water:
Fresh water as a commodity generates concern, being an exhaustible resource and due to
the environmental issues related to its degradation. Preserving the quality and availability
of freshwater resources however, is becoming the most pressing of many environmental
challenges for Pakistan. Perhaps, because water is considered a cheap and readily
available resource, there is not enough appreciation just how much stress human demands
for water are placing on natural ecosystems.

3) Land
Pakistan is predominantly a dry-land country where 80 % of its land area is arid or semi-
arid, about 12% is dry sub-humid and remaining 8 % is humid. Two-third of Pakistans
rapidly increasing population depends on dry-lands to support their livelihood mainly
through agro-pastoral activities. However, like many other developing countries dry lands
in Pakistan are severely affected by land degradation and desertification due to
unsustainable land management practices and increasing demand of natural resources
causing enormous environmental problems, including degradation of dry-land ecosystems,
loss of soil fertility, flash floods, loss of biodiversity, reduction in land productivity, soil
erosion, water logging, salinity, and many other associated problems. The situation is
further aggravated by scarcity of water, frequent droughts and miss-management of land
resources, contributing to expansion of deserts, reduced productivity and consequently
increases in rural poverty. Moreover, there is limited knowledge of consequences and
economic implications of land degradation, information gaps, and limited institutional
capacity to address land degradation and desertification problems through an integrated
land management approach.

Some threats of land degradation are greater than others in terms of their manifestation:
Water logging and salinity as a result of poor irrigation practices affects 14 million ha,
while deforestation and overgrazing affect 11 and 24 million ha, respectively. While the
former is the cause of the most widespread land degradation in river basins (in Sindh and
the Punjab), the latter combine (mostly deforestation, water and wind erosion) to affect
the greater dry land and upland areas (Balochistan, NWFP and parts of Punjab) and do
considerable damage to the integrity of ecosystems and provision of essential ecosystem
services soils, trees, water and biodiversity.

4) Forestry
Pakistan has 4.01 million hectares covered by forests, which is equivalent to about 5% of
the total land area. Eighty five percent of this is a public forest, which includes 40%
coniferous and scrub forests on the northern hills and mountains. The balance is made up
of irrigated plantations and river rain forests along major rivers on the Indus plains,
mangrove forests on the Indus delta and trees planted on farmlands. Though the forest
resource is meager it plays an important role in Pakistans economy by employing half a
million people, providing 363 thousand cubic meters of timber which constitute as one-
third of the nations energy needs. Forests and Rangelands support about 30 million herds
of livestock, which contributes more than US$ 400 million to Pakistans annual export
earnings. Forestry sector plays an important role in soil conservation, regulates flow of
water for irrigation and power generation, reduction of sedimentation in water
conveyances and reservoirs, employment and maintenance of ecological balance.

6. KEY INITIATIVES UNDER THE POLICY:

I. Climate Change Initiatives:
The Government of Pakistan Ratified the Kyoto Protocol earlier this year. A high level
National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by the Prime Minister of Pakistan has
been formed to review policies and monitor progress on climate change initiatives in the
country. An autonomous Global Change Impact Studies Centre has been established that
is engaged in research on impacts and adaptation to climate change in the country. The
Centre is now well equipped with staff and resources and is engaged in model based
research on climate change not only in Pakistan but also at the regional level. Ministry of
Environment has been designated as the Designated National Authority (DNA) for Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Ministry of Environment.

National operational strategy for CDM has been approved by the Prime Minister, offers all
support for attracting investments and capitalizing the carbon business under the CDM
initiative. CDM Cell has been established for approving and facilitating CDM projects in line
with national sustainable development goals.

II. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy:

Energy efficiency and the Renewable Energy is receiving increased focus in the light of
high current and expected oil prices, Carbon Trading and Climate Change. Alternate
Energy Development Board (AEDB), the focal point of Renewable energy, has formulated
an investment friendly Wind Power Policy and already issued 32 Letters of Interests (LOI)
for setting up of 50 MW wind farms in the Sindh area. The Solar Thermal policy and the
energy conservation policy have been drafted and expected to be formalized in a few
months in consultation with all stakeholders. More recently the CDWP has approved
provision of stand-alone solar electricity for 300 villages in Balochistan and 100 villages in
Sindh. AEDB is also working with the UNDP, GEF and other donors, in the area of Micro
Hydro (Productive Use of Renewable Energy), Wind Mapping, and Energy Efficiency
Improvements specially in the small and medium sized industries.

III. National Land Use and Forestry Programme:

A number of Plans and Policies including the Forest Sector Master Plan, National Forest
Policy, Biodiversity Action Plan and Desertification Combat Action Plan, Maritime Policy and
the Integrated Coastal Zone management Plan has been formulated and are at different
stages of approval. National Forestry Policy has been submitted to the Cabinet for
consideration. The draft policy proposes that the State-owned forests be regenerated and
protected with intimate involvement of local communities in forests management. Local
governments and union councils bring in more private marginal lands under forest cover
within a defined legal framework to avoid alienation of land use. State-owned wastelands
are leased out to tenants for expansion of forest cover from 4.8% to 6% in 2015, in
support of the commitments made by the Government of Pakistan under the MDGs.
Currently the Ministry of Environment is implementing 20 projects, including Tarbela Water
Shed Projects; Mangrove Rehabilitation Project; Ayubia National Park Management
Project; Ranage Management in Potohar track and Rachna Doab Forestry Project.

IV. Water and Sanitation:

The Ministry of Environment has formulated a draft Sanitation Policy, which will be
submitted to the Cabinet for approval after it has been deliberated upon during the 2nd
South Asian Conference on Sanitation (SACOSAN) being held in Islamabad during the third
quarter of 2006. Under the WES program the Ministry of Environment with the assistance
of UNICEF is preparing a Drinking Water for All policy. Both the policies when
implemented will support Pakistan achieve the targets set for the MDGS.

V. Water and Air quality monitoring:

Under the project Establishment of Environmental Monitoring System Environment
Protection Agency (EPA) with the collaboration of district and local governments will
effectively monitor ambient air quality, urban wastewater and industrial effluent discharge
into rivers/water bodies to check air and water pollution. ECNEC has already approved Rs
1089 Million for the project to be implemented in 5 major cities of Pakistan with assistance
from the Japanese Government.

VI. Bio-safety Guidelines:

Pakistan Bio-safety Rules- 2005 have been approved and they address the complex issue
of genetically modified living organisms (GMOs). Under the rules, specific licenses will be
required for the import, export production of experimentation with the GMO.

VII. Legislation enforcement:

Currently, two tribunals are functioning in Lahore and Karachi. During the coming three
years full financial and manpower support will be extended to make them fully functional
to prosecute environmental violations. Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) and the
Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) are mandatory for the Public Sector Development
Projects, and this program is being extended to the other projects also.

VIII. Programs and Projects:

MTDF allocates Rs. 28.3 Billion in the PSDP for 147 projects to be implemented in 2005 -
2010 in the environment sector, compared with cumulated total of Rs. 5.5 Billion in the
previous five years. Flagship is the Clean Drinking Water for All 2005-2008 a three year
federal program costing Rs 10.0 Billion. The program will install standardized water
purification plants at convenient places in urban and rural areas. In the Water Supply and
sanitation sector the MTDF proposes a National Drinking Water and Sanitation Policy
focusing on clean drinking water for the entire population, improving /expanding water
service delivery, water conservation and efficiency, and maximizing coverage of sanitation
services. Donor projects and programs outside the PSDP include projects in Wind Power,
Micro Hydro, Energy Efficiency and Conservation, Renewable Energy Development; Dry
Lands and Desertification; Wetlands Management; indoor and outdoor air pollution
controls; and forest rehabilitation and conservation projects.

7. ENVIRONMENTAL FISCAL REFORM:

The environmental fiscal reform (EFR) project launched recently by an international NGO
could lay some misconceptions to rest. Fiscal and environmental issues are often seen to
be mutually exclusive if not contradictory. The reality is that sustainable economic growth
and poverty reduction are dependent in large part on the state of the environment. It has
been noted across the developing world that environmental degradation hits the poor the
hardest. Depletion of forest cover, land erosion and soil contamination lead to loss of
livelihood, as do overfishing, destruction of natural hatcheries and other shocks to the
marine and riverine ecosystems. Water and air pollution have a direct impact on health
and overall quality of life. Social costs aside, an ailing workforce has a bearing on urban
and rural productivity, besides putting additional pressure on a cash-strapped healthcare
system that it is already bursting at the seams.

The scars of environmental degradation are already all too visible in Pakistan. Prolonged
drought and erratic weather are damaging agriculture, the mainstay of the economy. In
the countrys northern areas, ruthless logging by the timber mafia has made landslides a
perennial threat to life and property. Large-scale erosion is also silting our reservoirs and
rivers at a rapid rate, hampering irrigation as well as power generation and increasing the
severity of seasonal floods. Financial managers for whom human misery is not a priority
concern should remember that all this comes at a staggering monetary cost. If root causes
are addressed, recouped revenues and funds currently tied up in damage control could be
channelled towards socially productive avenues. To do this, the emphasis will have to shift
from short-term gains to sustainable development aimed at equitable economic growth
and poverty reduction. The architects of the three-year EFR project hope to engage
government at both federal and provincial levels. That may well be their biggest challenge.
SECTARIAN VIOLENCE & RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
1. INTRODUCTION:
Communalism, religious intolerance and the sectarian violence are scourge of any society
and repugnant to the teachings of Islam. The word Islam means peace and harmony and
forbids bigotry and religious fanaticism. It teaches generosity and tolerance even to the
followers of the other religions.
The PM, Shaukat Aziz, is also right in pointing out that a two-pronged strategy preventive
as well as curative is required to control both the manifestation and root causes of
sectarian conflict, which has claimed the lives of thousands of Pakistanis since the 1980s.
The toll in 2005 alone was over 200 dead and 400 wounded. Earlier this month, Shiit cleric
Allama Hasan Turabi was assassinated in Karachi while nearly 40 Ashura-day mourners
were killed in a bomb blast and related violence in Hangu in February 2006. The sectarian
scourge, in its current form, is clearly deep-rooted and cannot be eliminated easily. It has
its origins in the jihadist militancy fostered by Gen Zia ul Haq and subsequently fanned by
misguided adventurers and religious bigots. The situation as it now stands is that an entire
generation has been poisoned by the preachers of hate.
In the words of Syed Mohammad Ali in his article Pakistans sectarian problems,
Vested interests, misplaced policies and discriminatory laws have drastically reduced the
scope for a religiously tolerant state and society in Pakistan. Hate ideologies have damaged
our valuable cultural and intellectual heritage. While challenging institutionalised
sectarianism is certainly not easy, strengthening the common cultural heritage of Pakistani
people offers a less-confrontational way to reverse hate-based indoctrination.
2. Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi writes in an article Religious extremism and violence,
The government cannot contain religious extremism and violence by simply issuing
executive orders. It requires a comprehensive approach that entails monitoring supporters
of the militant groups in the civil and military administration, curtailing societal sources of
support, and strict action against the hard-core militant elements that use violence. The
government must adopt measures to address socio-economic inequities which have
increased during the last six years.
3. Kamila Hyat writes,
The fact of the matter is that a problem which has taken root over two decades or so may
take at least as long to eradicate. After all, numerous studies have shown that prejudice
of all kinds is an insidious social phenomenon, which can take generations to wipe out. It
is, however, essential that the effort to tackle sectarianism begin immediately. This effort
must be underpinned with far greater commitment and a longer-term strategy than has
so far been the case. Mere cosmetic measures, revolving around policing militancy by
locking up dozens in jails for weeks, or deploying security forces in an effort to keep
vigilance over every street corner, is neither feasible nor wise.
4. FACTORS FOR THE RISE OF SECTARIANISM IN PAKISTAN:
1) Religious Intolerance:
2) Political factors:
3) Economic factors:
4) Indian Interference:
5. EFFECTS OF SECTARIAN VIOLENCE:
1) Social disorder:
2) The politicisation of religion:
3) Impact on religious activities:
4) Law & order situation:
5) Political instability:
6) Widens Antagonism among different sects:
7) Impact on economy:
6. SCENARIO IN PAKISTAN:
Repetitive negative depictions of Pakistan are fuelled largely by the many conflicts that
plague our country. Besides lingering tensions with India and the discontent among
provinces, sectarian violence continues to blemish our national image.

While the extent of sectarian violence is not large in terms of the casualties caused by it,
the problem has led to a very perturbing fragmentation of the society. There is a range of
sects and sub-sects embroiled in sectarian violence. Understanding sectarianism requires
digging much deeper than just looking at the immediate reasons for a particular incident.
1) The politicisation of religion is a major reason for sectarian aspirations taking root in
Pakistan. The conflict between sectarian groups is not merely ideological; often it is
impelled by the desire to obtain political power. The evident patronage of the clergy by
various governments has steadily raised their public profile and influence, culminating in
the current setup, in a meteoric rise of religious parties. But the responsibility for helping
religious parties into political power does not lie with the Pakistani state alone. During the
1980s many influential players, including the US and some Middle Eastern governments,
lent support for the militarisation of religious identities for a proactive role in the Afghan
jihad. The decision to use right-wing religious parties to pursue geo-strategic goals first in
Afghanistan, and then in Kashmir, led to further politicisation on the basis of religion.
2) The International Crisis Group (ICG) blames the sectarian conflict squarely on the state
policies of Islamisation and the marginalisation of secular democratic forces. Several
governments in Pakistan are criticised for co-opting the religious right and continuing to
rely on it to counter civilian opposition rather than empowering the people. The ICG holds
the state responsible for patronising particular religious leaders who used religion as a
means to create political distraction. Their pulpits were never used to highlight peoples
rights and development issues. Moreover, it is pointed out that laws like the Hudood
Ordinance created operational bias against women. The problems were compounded by
enforcement of the Islamic law of evidence in 1984 that excluded womens testimony in
cases of Hadd crimes and halved the value of their evidence in civil matters. Non-Muslims
were not even allowed to give evidence. There have been numerous cases of people being
victimised under these laws.
3) Peripheral theological debates provide the basis for volatile divisions in the hands of
those seeking power over people. Press reports indicate that sectarian zealots kill around
200 people a year across the country. Analysts have pointed out that over the years
sectarian violence has spread from the more traditional rural arenas to major urban areas.
The pattern of targeting high-profile opponents has expanded to include public places
even mosques and religious gatherings. Even judges presiding over cases of sectarian
militancy in anti-terrorist courts are frequently forced to hold trials in jails.
4) Yet because of the political utility of religious leaders, the recently announced law
requiring registration of seminaries seems to have been sidelined. Whether the Hudood
laws will finally be repealed also remains to be seen. There is an evident need for
government to start taking measures that reflect the countrys religious diversity. Besides
removing all forms of religious discrimination, there is need for invoking constitutional
restrictions against private armies. Hate speech needs to be curbed to avoid extremist
violence. One of the suggestions put forth in this regard is to provide constitutional and
political rights to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the northern areas by finally
deciding their constitutional and legal status and linking up courts in these areas to
Pakistans mainstream judicial institutions. The tribal lashkars need to be outlawed.
5) Human rights organisations and legal experts continue to demands such measures.
There has been a lot of loud and vocal criticism of discriminatory laws and some efforts
have been made to help victims of these repressive laws particularly minorities and
women. The Human Rights Commission for Pakistan, a notable stalwart in this regard, has
been recommending that instead of merely changing procedures, all laws that sanction
discrimination against minorities and women should be repealed outright.
6) An unfortunate combination of vested interests, misplaced policies and discriminatory
laws has drastically reduced the scope for a religiously tolerant state and society in
Pakistan. Hate ideologies have damaged our valuable cultural and intellectual heritage.
While challenging institutionalised sectarianism is certainly not easy, strengthening the
common cultural heritage of Pakistani people offers a less-confrontational way to reverse
hate-based indoctrination.
7) Some civil society organisations have begun working on conflict resolution. There are
already a small number of peace activists in Pakistan. More poets, writers, artists,
journalists, lawyers and young volunteers need to lend support to this movement. To
diffuse tensions between different religious groups civil society groups can facilitate
dialogue or support moves to remove discriminatory practices exacerbating the sectarian
rifts. In addition to promoting interventions to narrow the sectarian fragmentation, more
research is needed on the religious and cultural communities of Pakistan. Debates in the
mainstream media to highlight our common intellectual heritage would also be useful.
7. CONCLUDING REMARKS:
The compulsions fuelling religious conflicts are certainly complex. They have multiple
negative implications as well. Nonetheless, this is not a problem that will go away on own
its own. It needs to be actively addressed if Pakistan is ever to become an enlightened
and moderate state.
In Hasan Askaris words, The government must adopt measures to address socio-
economic inequities which have increased during the last six years. Unless poverty and
underdevelopment are addressed effectively, ideological appeals and militancy will
continue to attract the alienated youth. The government must also open up the political
system to mainstream and liberal political forces so that they can help inculcate moderate
and tolerant values among the people. Internal harmony and cultural and political
tolerance cannot be promoted without establishing an equitable socio-economic system
and a participatory political process.

Pakistan and China Relationship (All aspects)

Pakistan and China relationship began in 1950 when Pakistan was among the first
countries to establish relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan and recognize the
PRC. Following the 1962 Sino-Indian War, both countries has placed considerable
importance on the maintenance of a extremely close and supportive relationship. Since
then, the two countries have regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety
of agreements both development and educational. China has provided economic, military
and technical assistance to Pakistan and each considers the other a close strategic ally.

Bilateral relations have evolved from an initial Chinese policy of neutrality to a

partnership that links a smaller but militarily powerful Pakistan, partially dependent on
China for its economic and military strength, with China attempting to balance
competing interests in the region. Diplomatic relations were established in 1950, military
assistance began in 1966, a strategic alliance was formed in 1972 and economic co-
operation began in 1979. China has become Pakistans largest supplier of arms and its
third-largest trading partner. Recently, both nations have decided to cooperate in
improving
Pakistan's civilian nuclear program.

Favorable relations with China is a pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy. China supported
Pakistan's opposition to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan and is perceived
by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to India and the United States. China and
Pakistan also share close military relations, with China supplying a range of modern
armaments to the Pakistani defense forces. China supports Pakistan's stance onKashmir
while Pakistan supports China on the issues of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. Lately,
military cooperation has deepened with joint projects producing armaments ranging from
fighter jets to guided missile frigates.

Chinese cooperation with Pakistan has reached economic high points, with substantial
Chinese investment in Pakistani infrastructural expansion including the Pakistani deep
water port at Gwadar. Both countries have an ongoing free trade agreement. Pakistan
has served as China's main bridge between Muslim countries. Pakistan also played an
important role in bridging the communication gap between China andthe West by
facilitating the 1972 Nixon visit to China.

Background of Pakistan China relationship

Pakistan has a long and symbiotic relationship with China. The long-standing ties
between the two countries have been mutually supportive. A close identity of views and
mutual interests remain the hallmark of bilateral ties. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian War,
Pakistan has supported China on most issues of importance to the latter, especially
those related to the question of China's sovereignty like Taiwan, Xinjiang, andTibet and
other sensitive issues such as human rights.

The Chinese leadership has acknowledged Pakistan's steadfast support on key issues.
Pakistan helped China in reestablishing formal ties with the West, where they helped
make possible the 1972 Nixon visit to China. Pakistan has collaborated with China in
extensive military and economic projects, seeing China as a counterweight to India and
the United States. Pakistan has also served as a conduit for China's influence in the
Muslim world. China also has a consistent record of supporting Pakistan in regional
issues. During the Pakistan-Indian tensions in 2008, it implied that it would support
Pakistan in the event of a war. Pakistan's military depends heavily on Chinese
armaments, and joint projects of both economic and militaristic importance are ongoing.
China has supplied equipment to support Pakistan's nuclear program, and has been
accused of giving nuclear technology to Pakistan.

Diplomatic relations

Diplomatic relations between Pakistan and China were established on 21 May 1951,
shortly after the defeat of the Republic Of China in 1949. While initially ambivalent
towards the idea of a Communist country on it's borders, Pakistan hoped that China
would serve as a counterweight to Indian influence. India had recognized China a year
before, and Indian Prime Minister Nehru also hoped for closer relations with the Chinese.
However, with escalating border tensions leading to the 1962 Sino-Indian war, China
and Pakistan aligned with each other in a joint effort to counter perceived Indian
encroachment. One year after China's border war with India, Pakistan ceded the Trans-
Karakoram Tract to China to end border disputes and improve diplomatic relations.

Since then, an informal alliance that initially consisted of joint Indian opposition has
grown into a lasting relationship that has benefited both nations on the diplomatic,
economic and military frontiers. Along with diplomatic support, Pakistan served as a
conduit for China to open up to the West. China has in turn provided extensive economic
aid and political support towards Pakistan.

Pakistan's military initially depended almost entirely on American armaments and aid,
which was increased during the covert U.S. support of Islamic militants in theSoviet war
in Afghanistan. America under US President Richard Nixon supported Pakistan in the
1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.[13] However, the period following the Soviet
withdrawal and the dissolution of the Soviet Union led indirectly to the increasing
realignment of America with the previously pro-Soviet India. The Pressler Amendment in
1990 suspended all American military assistance and any new economic aid amidst
concerns that Pakistan was attempting to develop a nuclear weapon.[ Given the support
that Pakistan had given them during the War in Afghanistan, many Pakistanis saw this as
a betrayal that sold out Pakistani interests in favor of India. This belief was further
strengthened as India had developed a nuclear weapon without significant American
opposition, and Pakistan felt obligated to do the same. Consequently, the primarily
geopolitical alliance between Pakistan and China has since 1990 branched out into
military and economic cooperation, due to Pakistan's belief that America's influence and
support in the region should be counterbalanced by the Chinese.

With the war in Afghanistan leading to renewed relations with the U.S., there is a
general sentiment in Pakistan to adopt a foreign policy which favors China over the
United States. Washington has been accused deserting Pakistan in favor of a policy that
favors stronger relations with India, while Pakistan sees China as a more reliable ally
over the long term.

Since 9/11, Pakistan has increased the scope of Chinese influence and support by
agreeing to a number of military projects, combined with extensive economic support
and investment from the Chinese. This is partially due to Pakistan's strategy of playing
off the two powers against each other, but also a genuine effort to prevent America's
influence in the region from becoming too strong. In return, the Chinese hope to
strengthen Pakistan as a counterbalance to American and Indian influence.

Military relations

The People's Republic of China enjoys strong defense ties with Pakistan. This relationship
between two adjoining Asian countries is important in the world's geo-strategic alliances.
The strong defense ties are primarily to counter regional Indian and American influence,
and was also to repel Soviet influence in the area. In recent years this relationship has
strengthened through ongoing defence projects and agreements between Pakistan and
China.
Since 1962, China has been a steady source of military equipment to the Pakistani Army,
helping establish munition factories, providing technological assistance and modernizing
existing facilities. The countries are involved in the joint venture of several projects to
enhance military and weaponry systems, which include collaborating in the development
of JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, space
technology, AWACS systems, Al-Khalid tanks and the Babur cruise missile. The armies
have a schedule for organising joint military exercises.

China is the largest investor in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is strategically located
at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. It is viewed warily by both America and India as a
possible launchpad for Chinese naval operations in the Indian Ocean. However the
Gwadar Port is currently delayed due to a multilateral diplomatic standoff between the
project leaders and the Singapore government.China has offered Pakistan military aid in
order to fight against terrorism in Pakistan. Pakistan has purchased military equipment
from China in order to bolster their efforts against Islamic militants.

In the past, China has played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear
infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in Western
countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and uranium enriching
equipment from elsewhere. China has supplied Pakistan with equipment to advance their
nuclear weapons program, such as the Chinese help in building the Khushab reactor,
which plays a key role in Pakistan's production of plutonium. A subsidiary of the China
National Nuclear Corporation contributed in Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium
enrichment capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a key
component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation of centrifuges. China
has also provided technical and material support in the completion of the Chashma
Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid
1990s. China may also have supplied nuclear technology to the Pakistanis, enabling
Pakistan to become a nuclear state with an estimated 100 warheads as of 2011.
Economic relations

Economic trade between Pakistan and China are increasing at a rapid pace and a free
trade agreement has recently been signed. Military and technological transactions
continue to dominate the economic relationship between the two nations, although in
recent years China has pledged to vastly increase their investment in Pakistan's
economy and infrastructure. Among other things, China has been helping to develop
Pakistan's infrastructure through the building of power plants, roads and communication
nodes.

Both countries are keen on strengthening the economic ties between the two, and have
promised to 'propel' cross-border trade. This has led to investment in Pakistan's nascent
financial and energy sectors, amidst a surge of Chinese investment designed to
strengthen ties. Pakistan has in turn been granted free trade zones in China. The
economic relationship between Pakistan and China is composed primarily of Chinese
investment in Pakistani interests. China's increasing economic clout has enabled a wide
variety of projects to be sponsored in Pakistan through Chinese credit. Pakistani
investment in China is also encouraged, and cross-border trade remains fluid.

Views on Pakistan and China relationship

The support with which China and Pakistan give each other is considered important in
global diplomacy, and has been compared to Israel United States relations. According
to a Pew survey of Pakistan public opinion last year, 84 percent of respondents said they
had a favorable view of China and 16 percent had a favorable view of the United States.
These results showed that Pakistan is the most pro-China country in the world. Similarly,
the Chinese state-run media has portrayed Pakistan in a favorable light in regional
issues.

Pakistan and China have long praised the close ties the two countries have with each
other. China has been referred to by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf as their "time-
tested and all-weather friend", while in return Chinese president Hu Jintao has referred
to Pakistan as "a good friend and partner".These statements are noted by some
observers as occurring after Pakistani relations with the United States or India have
become strained, such as after Osama Bin Laden was killed by American forces without
Pakistan's prior permission.

Issues of Pakistan and China relationship

The ETIM is a Waziri based mujihadeen organization that is said to be allied with the
Taliban, which has received funding from rogue elements in the ISI. As these militants
are labeled as terrorists from the Chinese province of Xinjiang, Pakistan's inability to
prevent this is a potential source of conflict.
The U.S. War On Terror has the Chinese wary of U.S. influence in the region, and as
Pakistan is a US ally and major recipient of US military and economic aid, China is
obligated to step up its support in order to maintain its influence in the region. As
political alliances shift, Pakistan may have allies in the United States and China that may
begin to see each other as rivals.Similarly, the warming of Sino-Indian relations puts
Pakistan's traditional alliance with China against India at risk. While the level of
cooperation between Pakistan and China is far closer than that of India, it poses a future
problem for Pakistan-China relations.

2011 Hotan Attack

The 2011 Hotan Attack was a series of coordinated bomb and knife attacks that occurred
in Hotan, Xinjiang, People's Republic of China on July 18, 2011. While many had always
suspected Pakistani involvement in terrorism in Xinjiang, the 2011 Hotan attack marked
the first incident of acknowledgement of this by authorities in China.

Terrorism In Pakistan: Its Causes, Impacts And Remedies

Outline:

Introduction

What Is Terrorism

Islams Response To Terrorism:

Causes Of Terrorism:

1. Internal Causes

a) Socio-Economic Causes
i) Injustice:
ii) Illiteracy:
iii) Poverty And Unemployment:
iv) Food Insecurity:
v) Dissatisfaction:

b) Political Causes:
i) Non-Democratic Set-Up:
ii) Improper Government Set-Up
iii) Absence Of Law And Failure Of Law Enforcement Agencies:

c) Religious Causes:
i) Role Of Madrassahs:
ii) Religious Intolerance:

2. External Causes
a) Afghan War: 1979
b) Iranian Revolution:
c) War On Terrorism: 9/11

Factors Boosting Terrorism:

a) Anti-Terrorism Campaign And Drone Strikes:
b) Negligence Of Government:
c) Persecution Of Innocent Muslims In Kashmir And Palestine:

Steps Taken By Pakistan:

a) Ban On Terrorist Organisation
b) Operation Rah-E-Nijat
c) Operation Rah-E-Rast

Impacts Of Terrorism:

a) Civilian Loss
b) Economic Cost Of Terrorism:
i) Agriculture Loss:
ii) Manufacturing Cost:
iii) Declining Foreign Direct Investment:
iv) Diminishing Tourism:
v) Internally Displaced People/internal Migration

c) Social Impacts;

d) Political Impacts:

e) Psychological Impacts:

f) Religious Impacts:

Remedies:

Conclusion:

At present the gravest problem that Pakistan is faces is terrorism. It has become a
headache for federation and a nightmare for public. Though, it is a global issue but
Pakistan has to bear the brunt of it. Pakistans involvement in the War on Terror has
further fuelled the fire. We are facing war like situation against the terrorists. This
daunting situation is caused due to several factors. These factors include social injustice,
economic disparity, political instability, religious intolerance and also external hands or
international conspiracies. A handful of people who have their vicious interests to fulfil
have not only taken countless innocent lives but also distorted the real image of Islam
before the world through their heinous acts. Terrorist acts like suicide bombings have
become a norm of the day. On account of these attacks Pakistan is suffering from
ineffaceable loss ranging from civilian to economic. People have become numerical
figures, blown up in numbers every now and then. Terrorists have not spared any place.
Bazars, mosques, educational institutes, offices, hotels, no place is safe anymore.

Though terrorism has no accepted definition, yet it can be defined as the use of violence
and intimidation in the pursuit of political aim or the calculated use of violence or threat
of violence against civilians in order to attain goals that are political or religious or
ideological in nature, this is done through intimidation or coercion or inciting fear.
According to FBIs definition, Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against
persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any
segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objective.

The religion of Islam (Submission), advocates freedom, peace and mutual agreement
and admonishes aggression. The following verses make it very clear.

And do not aggress; GOD dislikes the aggressors. (Quran 5:87)

You shall resort to pardon, advocate tolerance, and disregard the ignorant. (Quran:
7:199)

The relations of Muslims (Submitters) with others are based primarily on peace, mutual
respect and trust. The theme in the Quran is peace, unless there is oppression or
injustice that cannot be resolved by all the peaceful means available. The true religion of
Islam forbids the killing of innocent people, irrespective of the cause, religious, political
or social beliefs.

...You shall not kill * GOD has made life sacred * except in the course of justice. These
are His commandments to you that you may understand. (Quran 6:151)

You shall not kill any person * for GOD has made life sacred except in the course of
justice. (Quran17:33)

In Islam, an amazingly powerful emphasis is laid on developing love for mankind and on
the vital importance of showing mercy and sympathy towards every creature of Allah
Almighty, including human beings and animals. For indeed, love and true sympathy is
the very antidote of terrorism.

Injustice is one of the foremost factors that breed terrorism. When the grievances of the
people are not redressed they resort to violent actions. So this is the case with Pakistan
where timely justice has always been a far cry. Hence, the delayed justice is working as
incentive for victims and dragging them to the swamp of terrorist organisations.

Illiteracy is the root causes of extremism and terrorism. More than one in five men aged
15 to 24 unable to read or write, and only one in 20 is in tertiary education. such a high
illiteracy rate has made Pakistan vulnerable to terrorism. furthermore, technical and
vocational education, and adult literacy, are especially important but unfortunately have
been neglected the most in Baluchistan, Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and the Tribal Areas.
Illiteracy and lack of skills provide fertile ground for those who wish to recruit young men
and women to their cause, especially when significant monetary payments are attached.

Regarding poverty, it is also an incubating cause of terrorism. And it is said that a

hungry man is an angry man. Notably, majority of people in Pakistan are living below
poverty line. While especially for the youngsters, unemployment has made the matter
worse. In these adverse circumstances, some people go to the level of extremism and
even commit suicide. These are the people whose services are hired by the terrorist
groups and they become easy prey to terrorism.

Food insecurity is also linked with militancy and violence. When people remain unable to
afford food and cannot meet their basic needs civil strife grows. A report by the
Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute The highest levels of food
insecurity, for instance, exist in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, according to the
report, where 67.7 per cent of the people are insecure. The next highest level is in
Baluchistan, with food insecurity at 61.2 per cent, and then in Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa,
56.2 per cent. In Pakistan some extremist forces are exploiting the feelings of lower and
lower middle class food insecure people. They are motivating their unemployed youth to
commit heinous crimes such as suicide attacks against innocent people.

Another reason of terrorism is dissatisfaction. When a person is dissatisfied with the

rulers and thinks that his rights are being humiliated or exiled, his living of life has not
been compensated, he is deprived of rightful inheritance to office, wrongly imprisoned
and property confiscated then he joins some religious parties. It does not matter which
organisation it would be. None of the organisations has any importance for him.
Adopting an organisation would only save him from the critical situation he is in and
leaves him to play in the hands of his so-called leaders who destroy his public sense of
security.

Todays Pakistan is facing democratic turmoil. A path chartered by the military regime of
Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan then of Zia-ul-Haq was altered by yet another military regime
that of Musharraf. All these regimes produced political instability, poor governance,
institutional paralysis, by passing the rule of law, socio-economic downfall and so on.
These fragile conditions along with deteriorating law and order situation have provided a
fertile ground for terrorism to grow.

Furthermore, lack of proper government set-up and lack of coordination and information
sharing between various institutions of government is also a cause of behind the
escalating terrorist activities. Not to talk of providing security to common people, our law
enforcing agencies (LEAs) have completely failed to protect high officials of the country.
In the absence of law and proper trial the terrorists are entrenching their roots firmly.
Failure of the (LAEs) to bring the terrorist to book has emboldened terror mongers to
strike at a target of their choice at will. Schools, hospitals, markets and places of worship
have become their favourite targets.

Religion became the dominant force during the Zia regime when the Islamization of laws
and education became a state policy. And the Islamic legislation was promulgated and a
number of Islamic enactments were made, including the Hudood and blasphemy laws.
One may also mention the vital role of the jihadis in their fight against the Soviet
military occupation with the American support, as well as the generous patronage
extended by the government to the religious parties and groups. It may be added that
various religious groups benefited from the support they received from abroad, in
particular from Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Religious Madrassah is not something new for the Islam or our country. But after
Russian attack on Afghanistan it took a new dimension. They were being used as
recruitment centres for jihadis. Thousands of Mujahedeen were trained and sent to
Afghanistan for so-called jihad. After the fall of Russia, a sizeable number of the jihadis
who returned to Pakistan got involved in terrorist activities.

Religious intolerance is another factor which is adding fuel to the fire of terrorism. youth,
educated through religious Madrassahs, are indoctrinated with extreme ideas. They
become intolerant towards other religions and even other sects of their own religion.
They impose their own extreme ideas and vent their fanaticism thorough violent actions.
Intolerance makes society jungle. It is proving destructive phenomenon for social
harmony, political stability, and economic growth.

The soviet Afghanistan war was the most critical event responsible for spreading
militancy and intolerance in Pakistan. A fundamental change that altered the very
character of Pakistani society occurred after establishment of the soviet backed
communist regime in Afghanistan. The aftermath of the soviet withdrawal exposed the
damage, transformation of violence and Weaponisation into Pakistani society. It
ultimately plagued Pakistan with a new trend commonly referred as Kalashnikov
Culture and Talbanisation. This was perhaps an end to our long established pluralistic
culture and values. Result was a wave of vicious cycle of Sectarian and Inter-sect and
Interfaith violence/terrorism.

Religious extremism that took its roots in Pakistan after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in
1979 has proved venomous for Pakistan. The increased danger of sectarian motivated
acts of violence, have gained in power and influence over the recent past. External as
well as internal influences have impacted the sectarian issues and have served to further
intensify the magnitude and seriousness of the problem. Sectarian violence, therefore,
was an extremely rare and unheard of phenomenon in Pakistan with sectarian disputes
being very localized and confined rather than being frequent and widespread.

This religious extremism took a new shape of terrorism after 9/11. After the incident of
9/11 suicide bombing in Pakistan has become a norm of the day. The American invasion
and occupation of Afghanistan, as well as the military operation in Pakistan, along with
the American drone attacks, have served to fuel religious radicalism leading to violent
reaction. The breakdown of state structures in Afghanistan created a void which was
quickly filled by groups and individuals who took it upon themselves to continue the lost
battle. Some of them also intruded into Pakistani tribal areas, thus inviting the US
displeasure. Flushing out these foreign fighters by Pakistani security forces made
Pakistan a battle ground, as foreign militants and some of their local hosts, joined hands
to counter the security forces.

The drone strikes have increased anti-Americanism in Pakistan society and the region.
The terrorists have used the collateral damage to maximize the environment and society
to their benefit. Families of people killed in collateral damage become ideal nursery for
suicide bombers In Pakistan society drone attacks are popularly believed to have caused
even more civilian casualties than is actually the case. The persistence of these attacks
on Pakistani territory is continuously creating public outrages and alienating people from
government and Army. The drone is a tactical weapon and has certainly given good
results tactically to support coalition forces operation on their sides of the border but
strategically history has many unanswered questions.

On account of anti-campaign and drone attacks scores of people have become homeless
and even some have lost all their possessions Coupled with this, governments
indifference towards these internally displaced people has further deteriorating the
situation and encouraging people to join anti-state actors. Negligence on the part of
government has alienated the people and has placed Pakistan in an undesirable situation
domestically.

Furthermore, indiscriminate and brutal persecution of innocent citizen of Kashmir and

Palestine by Indian and Israeli forces respectively is further boosting the monster of
terrorism. the people of Kashmir and Palestine have been denied their basic rights for
decades. Hence their feelings of antagonism springing out in the form violent acts and
also their supporters are conducting these types of acts here in Pakistan in order the
draw the attention of the world towards the injustices being done to them.

Pakistan has done its level best to rid terrorism and terrorists from its soil. In first step,
many terrorist organisations were banned by the Musharraf government. After those
successful military operations namely Rah-e-Nijat and Rah-e-Rast have been conducted.
Pakistan army has fought bravely against terrorist and has destroyed their safe dens. It
has broken the backbone of the terrorists and has forced them to flee. These operations
still keep ongoing in some tribal areas. In this context, it is worth-mentioning that public
support to military operations is very essential, and without peoples backing no army
can win this different war against terrorism.

For Pakistan the consequences of being the epicentre of the war on terror have been
disastrous physically, psychologically and economically. Nobody understands terrorism
better than us (Pakistanis). We have been victims of various manifestations of it since
the Soviet Afghan war. Since 9/11, the wave of suicide bombing has so far killed scores
of innocent Pakistani civilians and muffled the already slow pace of our economic growth.
The financial cost of the ongoing global war on terror in the last two years alone has
been $35 billion. This has badly affected in particular, the socio-economic development
of Pakistan. Lest we forget, we even lost our prominent political leader Benazir Bhuttoto
an act of terror.

Since September 11, 2001, 21,672 Pakistani civilians have lost their lives or have been
seriously injured in an ongoing fight against terrorism. The Pakistan Army has lost 2,795
soldiers in the war and 8,671 have been injured. There have been 3,486 bomb blasts in
the country, including 283 major suicide attacks. More than 3.5 million have been
displaced. The damage to the Pakistani economy is estimated at $68 billion over the last
ten years. Over 200,000 Pakistani troops were deployed at the frontline and 90,000
soldiers are fighting against militants on the Afghan border.

The ongoing insurgency has accelerated the already dismal economic situation and has
affected almost each and every economic aspects of the country, particularly in FATA
and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. All the main resources of revenue in affected areas have been
hurt, including agriculture, the tourism industry, manufacturing and small-scale industry.
Due to insurgency, the loss to agriculture alone amounts to Rs.35 billion. The breakdown
in law and order situation has damaged the fruit based economy of the northern areas.
It has rendered billions of rupes losses to the landowners, labourers, dealers and farmers
who earn their livelihood from these orchards. Also, the Economic survey of Pakistan
report shows that the share of agriculture in the gross domestic product (GDP) has been
constantly falling. It accounted for 25.99 per cent of GDP in 1999-2000; however,
gradually its share shrank to 21.3 per cent in 2007-2008. The figures show that
terrorism has not only decreased the productive capacity of agricultural activity in these
regions but also in the entire country.

The manufacturing sector has been hard hit by frequent incidents of terrorism and has
created an uncertain environment resulting into low level of economic growth. The
manufacturing sector is witnessing the lowest-ever share of 18.2 per cent in the GDP
over the last five years. In addition, the small and medium-size enterprises which are
key area of manufacturing in Pakistan have been affected across the country because of
power shortages and recurrent terrorist attacks.

According to a Harvard study (December 2000), higher levels of terrorism risk are
associated with lower levels of net FDI. In case of Pakistan, terrorism has affected the
allocation of firms investing money in the country. As a result, FDI, which had witnessed
a steep rise over the previous several years, was adversely affected by the terrorist acts
in the country, especially in FATA and other areas of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa.

According to the World Economic Forum, Pakistan ranked 113 out of 130 countries in
2009 as a tourist destination. The low ranking is attributed to incidents of terrorism and
the lack of a tourism regulatory framework in Pakistan. On account of persistent terrorist
attacks many hotels in the northwest areas have been closed. According to governments
own estimates, the hotel industry in Swat valley has suffered a loss of Rs. 60 billion.
Many workers have lost their jobs and transport has also face a severe blow.

Due to war on terror, local people of war-ridden areas are migrating to other areas of
Pakistan. Country has seen the largest migration since independence in 1947. These
people have left their homes, businesses, possessions and property back home. This
large influx of people and their rehabilitation is an economic burden for Pakistan.
Unemployment is still prevalent and now the question of providing employment to these
migrants has also become a serious concern. This portion of population is contributing
nothing worthwhile to the national income yet they have to be benefitted from it. This
unproductive lot of people is a growing economic problem of Pakistan

Social impacts have also been caused by this war. In a society where terror exists
cannot be healthy. Social disorganization has occurred due to terrorism. Social relations,
economic transactions, free moments, getting education, offering prayers etc. have
suffered. Pakistans participation in the anti-terrorism campaign has led to massive
unemployment, homelessness, poverty and other social problems and ills. In addition,
frequent incidents of terrorism and displacement of the local \population have severely
affected the social fabric.

On the political front Pakistan is badly impacted in fighting the war against terrorism. It
has taken many valuable steps to defeat terrorists. In spite of all the sacrifices the
country is making it is branded to be a country insincere or half-hearted in fighting the
menace. Every time the country is told to do more. It is further alleged for infiltration
of the militants inside US-NATO dominated Afghanistan. The failure of the Western
troops in the neighbourhood is blamed on Pakistan. This situation has eroded the trust
between the governments and caused international image problem for the country.

Similarly the terror has brought in its wake psychological problems. Fear in the hearts of
the people is created. Trauma, depressions and confusion have been increased. The
people feel insecure and unsafe whenever in their daily life activities, as time and again
they watch the terror events taking place in different cities. Those have especially been
suffered who have closely witnessed the suicidal bombings.

The religion is also impacted by the war against terrorism. The religion of Islam is
perceived to be the one tolerating extremism and terrorism abroad. In the western world
people equate violence, abuse against women and minority rights, and several acts of
terrorism like suicidal bombing and coercion with Islam and Muslims. Whenever any such
inhuman act takes place they tie it with Islam and its followers. When in the UK terror
acts were committed the authority blamed it on Pakistani citizens for instance. And why
these days Pakistanis are discriminately interrogated and have to be screened before
they inter the US is due to the fact that they are Pakistanis and Muslims.

Thorough analysis of the causes of terrorism and its ineffaceable impacts indicate that in
Pakistan this phenomenon has not come to fore overnight. It has taken decades to
flourish and involves many factors. Since terrorism is a multifaceted, the solution has to
be multi-pronged. In view of the root causes described in above paragraphs, the possible
remediescould include:

To begin with, a national commission needs to be set up, which identifies the fault lines
and the root causes of the rise of extremism in Pakistan taking into consideration the
post-Nine-Eleven developments.

It should also take up the question of reforming the madrassas. The heads of all the
major religious groups should be contacted and engaged to explore short-term and long-
term solutions.

Our universities and research institutes should take up the intellectual task of re-
interpreting the Islamic injunctions in the light of modern knowledge and 21st century
challenges (with emphasis on social justice).

The government must improve its performance. Bad governance and corruption have
lowered its credibility and clout,

Parliament must debate Pakistans present relationship with the US, with particular
reference to the American war in Afghanistan and operations in Pakistan.

Our government should make efforts to develop sector. Without any doubt, these
efforts will play a crucial role not only in providing employment to the millions of people
but will also eliminate poverty in the country.

Pakistans government should particularly emphasise the need of technical education

by promoting it. In this respect, more institutes should be opened in order to promote
technical education.

It is mentionable that there are two types of terrorists, extremists and moderates. In
order to cope with terrorism, our government should neutralise the moderate terrorists
through reconciliation by offering them general pardon and asking them to renounce
terrorism. Even extremist insurgents can be offered mediation. Nevertheless, those
militants who reject the offer could be fought through military operations.

Nonetheless, for their on global and regional interests, US-led western allies must not
only increase the military and economic aid of Pakistan but also provide direct market
access to Pak products on zero rate duty to help stabilise the countrys bleak economy in
the wake of the war against terror.
 As Pakistan has been successfully coping with the menace of terrorism, US-led some
western countries including India should also give up their propaganda campaign against
Islamabad and blame game against its intelligence agency ISI.

US should help in resolving the Kashmir dispute to deal with the problem of militancy
in the region.

In order to fight terrorism, Pakistans media should play a key role. It must point out
the criminal activities of the militants like hostage-taking, killing of the innocent people?
torching the government buildings including girl schools and car-snatching. It should also
indicate that Islam is a religion of peace and does not allow suicide attacks.

As Pakistan is already facing various crises of grave nature in wake of terrorism, so our
politicians must stop manipulating the same for their own self-interests. By setting aside
their differences and by showing power of tolerance, both our rulers and opposition
parties need to act upon a policy of national reconciliation to cope with the problem of
terrorism and to stand before external pressure.

Finally, our politicians, general masses and security forces must show a strong sense of
unity to fight terrorism,

To conclude, Pakistan is a peace loving nation and playing its important role in
combating terror. Recognition of efforts to fight menace of terrorism and sacrifices
rendered thereof are testimony to the commitment and resolve to bring peace in the
region. Unfortunately sometimes its commitment is doubted by some of its allies.
Mistrust can lead to diversion of efforts, which will not be beneficial to common objective
of peace in the region. Pakistan is a responsible nation; fully capable of defending its
territorial integrity. Pakistan has singularly committed large forces to combat menace of
terrorism more than any other country. No foreign troops are either present or deployed
on Pakistan soil.

All citizens of Pakistan must propagate moderate vibrant culture of Pakistan to promote
good will of world community and shun misconstrued beliefs. Attacks on security forces
personnel are executed at the sponsorship of hostile intelligence agencies. Such anti
state elements must be singled out and brought to lime light to defeat evil agendas of
our enemies. Pakistan has sacrificed the most in the ongoing war on terror; criticizing
Pakistans efforts at national/international forum will be counter-productive to the overall
objectives of war on terror.
__________________
If you want to fly high in the skies with eagles, then you have to abandoned swimming
with in the pool with the ducks.

TERRORISM THE BIGGEST THREAT TO PAKISTAN

What Is Terrorism:

Though terrorism has no accepted definition,

yet it can be defined as the use of violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political
aim.

the calculated use of violence or threat of violence against civilians

in order to attain goals that are political or religious or ideological in nature,
this is done through intimidation or coercion or inciting fear.
According to FBIs definition, Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against
persons or property
to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in
furtherance of political or social objective.

At present the gravest problem that Pakistan faces is terrorism.

It has become a headache for federation and a nightmare for public.
Though, it is a global issue but Pakistan has to bear the brunt of it.
Pakistans involvement in the War on Terror has further fuelled the fire.
We are facing war like situation against the terrorists.
This daunting situation is caused due to several factors.
These factors include social injustice, economic disparity, political instability, religious
intolerance and also external hands or international conspiracies.
A handful of people who have their vicious interests to fulfil have not only taken
countless innocent lives but also distorted the real image of Islam before the world
through their heinous acts. Terrorist acts like suicide bombings have become a norm of
the day.
On account of these attacks Pakistan is suffering from ineffaceable loss ranging from
civilian to economic.
People have become numerical figures, blown up in numbers every now and then.

Terrorists have not spared any place.

Bazars, mosques, educational institutes, offices, hotels, no place is safe anymore.

Terrorism is second to none amongst the threats faced by Pakistan.

The cost it has incurred, overweighs the losses bore in any other turmoil in history of the
country.

The complexity of this multifaceted menace lies in the fact that it is caused by multitude
of factors ranging from internal situation to external developments.

It has been damaging not only the economy, political stability, social sector and social
fabric of the country but also national security and integrity.
The country's image abroad and its foreign relations are severely affected, as well.

Moreover, the risk of being termed as a failed state was born out of the implications of
no other problem but terrorism.
Nevertheless, the increasing realization and resolve of the political, civil and military
leadership to combat this threat with iron hands harbingers a strong action to eradicate
terrorism.

However, this problem will not go away easily given the isolated responses from state
institutions.
A comprehensive and integrated counter-extremism and counter-terrorism strategy is
need of the hour.
The emerging clarity among institutions and political consensus among major
stakeholders is a positive sign in this regard.

History of Terrorism in Pakistan: An Overview

The origin of terrorism in Pakistan can be traced back to two important events that
brought obscurantism, intolerance and resultantly terrorism in Pakistan.

Before 1980s, religion has never been a controversial issue in Pakistan.

The sectarian militants emerged in Pakistan after the 1979 Iran Revolution which
transformed the nature and magnitude of sectarian violence in Pakistan.
Besides, Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was the most critical event leading to the
spread of militancy.

A fundamental change that altered the very character of society in Pakistan occurred
after the outbreak of Soviet-Afghan war.

However, the real damage was exposed only after the Soviet withdrawal from
Afghanistan, when there emerged weaponization and violence in Pakistan.

Lately, in the wake of US attack on Afghanistan, and Pakistan's entry into War on Terror
as an ally, the extremism and terrorism soared.

FORMS OF TERRORISM
With its multifarious nature, the magnitude of terrorism has become greater.

Ethnic,
sectarian;
nationalist,
separatist; and
jihadi terrorism are some forms of it.

Ethnicity has been haunting Pakistan since its emergence as an independent state.
This was the ethnicity factor that led to dismemberment of the country in 1971.
Arson, bombings, assaults, vandalism and even murder have been some aspects of this
nuisance.

Separatist terrorism is another threat to Pakistan.

The Balochistan province has been facing the intermittent guerilla wars.
The tribal militants, allegedly patronized by foreign powers especially India, carry out
heinous acts of terrorism and even resort to target killings to advance their separatist
agenda.

The so-called jihad is another form of terrorism that is most widespread nowadays.
This type of terrorism emerged with Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s.

After the Soviet withdrawal, this armed struggle transformed into a sort of civil war,
and later Afghanistan became a breeding ground for terrorists.

Furthermore, after 9/11 attacks, when Pakistan entered in war against terrorism,
some of these sham Jihadi groups turned their guns against Pakistan.

causes

This violent phenomenon has become complex in nature due to multitude of the causes.
The situation in Pakistan is more complicated due to its underdevelopment, strategic
location, diverse cultures and religious orientation of society.

The first and foremost cause is widespread illiteracy in Pakistan.

Pakistan ranks 113th among the 120 nations in the literacy rate index.
Since, people lack the knowledge of the true teachings of Islam;
they are easily carried away by the emotional and sentimental speeches of religious
fanatics.

Secondly; injustice or lack of justice is also one of the core causes of terrorism.
People are suffering from many social injustices including, but not limited to, unequal
resource distribution,
restricted access to quality education, the elite's hegemony in political system, lack of
basic health facilities,
and non-availability of necessary commodities to major portion of the population.
There is plethora of examples in history when deprived and marginalized people rebelled
and even resorted to violence to gain their rights.
In Pakistan, the underprivileged and depressed class is prone to be exploited by the
terrorists.

Thirdly; poverty is also a major cause of terrorism.

According to a study conducted by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute,
every third Pakistani is living below the poverty line i.e. 58.7 million out of 180 million
are living in abject poverty.
A survey conducted by Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) revealed that around
45.7% population of Pakistan is poor.
These people, caught in the vicious cycle of poverty, join terrorists for monetary
benefits.

Fourthly; derailing of democracy by military dictators also contributed to the spread of

terrorism in Pakistan.
History of the country manifests that these were the decisions of military rulers that put
Pakistan in this quandary.
It was Zia's decision to involve Pakistan in war against Soviets in Afghanistan.
Again, it was Gen Pervez Musharraf's decision to become a frontline US-ally in war
against terrorism.

Fifthly; the ever-growing religious intolerance in Pakistan also fosters terrorism.

In recent past, more than 100 Shiites were killed in Quetta in one attack.
In addition, many Sunni/Shia processions were attacked and churches were set ablaze.

Sixthly; Pakistan's participation in Afghan War has also plagued the country with
terrorism.
Pakistan still ails from the disease it acquired during Soviet-Afghan war.
Now, those militias have become so unbridled that they even challenge the writ of the
government in various parts of the country.

Seventhly; the crippling economy also gives rise to terrorism.

The faltering economy has increased inflation, poverty and unemployment.
Almost 50% of the Pakistani workforce is unemployed, reveals the survey released by
the Pakistan Economy Watch (PEW).
Miseries compel people to find additional sources of income and the terrorists lure these
marginalized people.
Thus, economic frailty makes recruitment for terrorists easier.

IMPACTS

Terrorism is the biggest threat to a viable state.

The first and foremost threat, it poses, is to democratic system of the country.
Pakistan has had only a wobbling democracy.
Proper democratic transition is taking place for the first time in the country's history.
However, the elections were marred by terrorist attacks on election campaigns.
If the environment of insecurity prevails, democracy would never flourish and people will
lose trust in the democratic process.

Terrorism also threatens the sovereignty of Pakistan.

The presence of terrorists invites drone attacks which is a serious challenge to the
country's sovereignty.
One of the major reasons behind the crippled economy of Pakistan is terrorism.
The terrorist activities in Pakistan have led to flight of capital and investors.
The investors are reluctant to invest here due to law and order situation.
The estimated losses are around $70bn.

Moreover, tourism industry of Pakistan is also in a dying state.

Furthermore, the threat of terrorism also compels the government to divert resources to
security spending.

Terrorism also hampers the prospects of good governance.

The government finds itself hapless to improve the law and order situation in the
country.

The schools are bombed and demolished which deprives people of the light of
knowledge.
The proponents of education are attacked; the case of Malala Yousafzai is an example in
this regard.

Terrorism thwarts the progress of the country as well.

Pakistan couldn't make any progress in the last decade rather all the economic and
human development indices show a considerable fall.
Pakistan ranks 145th on the Human Development Index.

The country has spent more than $20 billion on war against terror and is compelled to
increase its defence budget.
Resultantly, the spending on the social development has seen new lows.
Hence, terrorism causes underdevelopment which leads to increase in miseries of the
masses.

Terrorism endangers the national security as well.

A fleeting look at the current situation reveals that the country is suffering from worst
security crisis.
Terrorists carried out, successfully, attacks even on most secure and strategically
important places.
The attacks on GHQ, Mehran Naval Base and Kamra Air Base are testimony to this fact.
The magnitude of losses can be gleaned from the fact that only one Saab-2000 aircraft
fitted with an Airborne Early Warning & Control System (AWACS) destroyed at Kamra
was worth $250 million.

Terrorism, lastly, is a great threat to national integrity.

It is threatening the very roots and fabric of the society.
Pakistanis are being divided into small sub-nations fighting to assert their existence and
separate identity.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Despite the above-mentioned facts, Pakistan has all the capacity and potential to
eradicate terrorism.

All it requires is a comprehensive and coordinated strategy.

First of all, religious leaders and scholars can play a vital role in this regard.
They should use speeches and writings to preach the message of peace.

Two; the civil society also needs to come forward and play its role in sorting out the
problems face by the nation.
Moreover, a huge campaign is required to defeat the ideologies of terrorists.
This campaign or mass movement can be used very effectively with collaborative efforts.
Three; uniform system of education can play a viable role in eradicating terrorism.

The curriculum should be free of all the biases, religious bigotry and fanaticism.
It shall include religious and modern education in equal proportions.
The minds of younger generation need to be washed of all the rigidness; then only peace
will prevail in society.

Four; media can be the most effective tool in eliminating terrorism.

Media can be used to educate people and bring them on board about challenges faced by
the country.
Soft corner for militancy in the general public can only be eradicated by well-organized
media effort.

Five; peace in Afghanistan is one of the prerequisites for curbing terrorism in Pakistan.
Presence of Nato and Allied Forces in Afghanistan is a major cause of instability in the
region.

Sixth; an effective strategy to counter militant and extremist groups hinges in the
capability to gain timely and accurate intelligence.
The local intelligence needs to be strengthened in terms of organization, equipment,
training and coordination.
The intelligence agencies should be made completely free of political interference.

Seventh; a coherent strategy on using force as last resort should be evolved.

The foreigners cannot live among the locals unless they are sufficiently motivated to
support these militants.
The local tribesmen should be taken into confidence and must be encouraged to stand
up against the foreign elements.

Eighth; economic and social disparity leads to increase in recruitment of terrorists.

Economic recovery should be given the top priority, especially in the underdeveloped
areas.

Comprehensive plans to ensure revival of industry to generate economic activity and

jobs should be devised.

Lastly, there is, undoubtedly, a need for providing speedy and affordable justice to poor
masses.
As 'Justice delayed is justice denied', the people feel themselves alienated from society.
The performance of lower judiciary has resulted in loss of trust of general public in courts
and thus the Taliban-type speedy justice system attracts public support in certain areas.
Therefore, justice system should be reviewed to ensure that people get speedy and
affordable justice.
Moreover, the prosecution needs to be made effective in order to curtail the large
acquittal ratio of terrorists.

CONCLUSION
There is no denying the fact that Pakistan is facing great threat of terrorism.
It's a country which is plagued with multifarious terrorism caused by several intricate
problems.
It poses threat to essential ingredients of the state, from democracy to national security
and integrity of the country.
However, combating terrorism is not an insurmountable task for this resilient nation.
The enormity of the challenge has led to the momentum that is underway with regard to
building of consensus on the policy to combat terrorism.
This would lead to a conclusive strategy to eliminate this menace.
The policy accompanied with political resolve is bound to win this war and achieve the
stability and prosperity in the country.
__________________
If you want to fly high in the skies with eagles, then you have to abandoned swimming
with in the pool with the ducks.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The writer delivered a talk on China-Pakistan Energy Corridor and its ramifications at
Thinkers Forum Pakistan on May 31, 2015, chaired by Air Chief Marshal (retd) Kaleem
Saadat and attended by Lt Gen (retd) Lodhi, and members both from civil and military.
After the talk, there was long question/answer session followed by summing up by the
Chairman. Details of presentation are covered in succeeding paragraphs:

1- CPEC:

Establishment of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was first proposed by

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during his visit to Pakistan in May 2013. The proposed
project of linking Kashgar in northwest China with Gwadar Port on Arabian Sea coastline
in Baluchistan was approved on July 5, 2013 during the visit of PM Nawaz Sharif to
Beijing, which included construction of 200 km long tunnel.

2- Chinas Investments:

In December 2013, China committed $6.5 billion for the construction of a major nuclear
power project in Karachi. In May 2014, another agreement was signed to supplement
Orange Line metro train project in Lahore worth $1.27 billion. In November 2014, the
two countries signed 19 agreements related to CPEC. In addition, Chinese firms started
work on six mega power projects in Gilgit-Baltistan such as Dassu, Phandar, Bashu,
Harpo, Yalbo to tackle Pakistans energy crisis.

3- Quest for Warm Waters:

Mindful of the under development of its western provinces which are its soft belly and
ongoing Uighur movement, China wants speedy modernisation of Xingjiang and other
under developed provinces to bring them at par with eastern provinces. For the
accomplishment of these dreams, China needs access to warm waters in Arabian Sea
through Gwadar since this route to world markets is the shortest and the cheapest. This
access was never granted to Russia.

4- Visit of President Xi Jinping:

With this objective in view, President Xi Jinping visited Islamabad on April 20-21, 2015
and raised the level of investment from $ 26 billion to $ 46 Billion. He signed 51
agreements/MoUs worth $28 billion, with $17 billion in pipeline spread over 15 years. His
visit achieved the milestone of the groundbreaking of historic 3,000 km-long strategic
CPEC.

5- Projects in Hand:
It includes $ 33 billion worth energy projects such as coal, solar, hydroelectric power
projects which will inject 10,400 MW electricity in the national grid by 2017/18, and
hydro power projects. Other projects are fibre optic cable from Xingjiang to Rawalpindi,
1240 km long Karachi-Lahore motorway, metro and bus service in six major cities, up
gradation of 1300 km long Karakorum Highway, oil/gas pipelines to connect Kashgar to
the seaport of Gwadar, 1,800-km railway line, commercial sea-lanes, special economic
zones, dry ports and other infrastructure.

6- Routes:

Three routes have been marked:-

I- Western route originating from Gwadar will pass through Turbat, Panjgur, Naag,
Basima, Sohrab, Kalat, Quetta, Qila Saifullah, Zhob DIK, Mianwali, Hasanabdal, Isbd.

II- Central route will originate from Gwadar, Quetta, and reach DIK via Basima, Khuzdar,
Sukkar, Rajanpur, Liya, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar, DIK.

III-Eastern route will include Gwadar, Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, RYK, Bwp, Multan,
Lahore/Fsbd, Isbd, Mansehra.

7- Importance of Gwadar:

Gwadar is one of the least developed districts in Baluchistan province. It sits strategically
near the Persian Gulf and close to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the
worlds oil passes. Work on Gwadar deep-seaport had started in 2002 with Chinas
investment. In 2013, management of the seaport which was in the sloppy hands of
Singapore PSA International was handed over to Chinas Port Holdings. It is planned to
develop Gwadar into free trade zone with a modern airport on the model of Singapore or
Hong Kong and a gateway to CPEC. It will be largest, deep seaport, overshadowing
Chahbahar and Dubai seaports.

8- Views of Analysts:

Some analysts perceive Gwadar seaport turning into Chinas naval base in the Indian
Ocean, enabling Beijing to monitor Indian and American naval activities and thus
frustrating their ambition to convert the ocean into exclusive Indian lake. Modernization
of Pak Navy by China is seen as a step in that direction.

Analysts say the projects conceived under CPEC will ease Pakistans energy shortages
and make a substantial difference in the long term.

Some experts opine this initiative can bring greater cohesion in South Asia, one of the
worlds least economically integrated regions. It is also feared that clashing geo-
economic interests may lead to unhealthy competition.

9- Gains for China:

While the CPEC may be monumental for Pakistan, for China it is part of more ambitious
plans to beef up the countrys global economic muscle. Chinese officials describe the
corridor as the flagship project of a broader policy One Belt, One Road which
seeks to physically connect China to its markets in Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond. The
New Silk Road will link China with Europe through Central Asia and the Maritime Silk
Road to ensure a safe passage of Chinas shipping through the Indian Ocean and the
South China Sea. CPEC will link China with nearly half of the population of the world.

Access to Indian Ocean via Gwadar will enable Chinas naval warships and merchant
ships to bypass Malacca Strait and overcome its Malacca Dilemma.
Development of Gwadar seaport and improvement of the infrastructure in the hinterland
would help China sustain its permanent naval presence in the Gulf of Oman and the
Arabian Sea.

At the same time, the new silk roads are bound to intensify ongoing competition
between India and China and to a lesser extent between China and the US to invest
in and cultivate influence in the broader Central Asian region.

10- Indian Concerns:

Modi is at the horns of dilemma; whether to bow to RSS agenda of Hindutva and remain
captive to entrenched interest groups and lobbies in India with hardened mindset who
are doggedly resisting any paradigm shift in relations with rising China and cling to the
myth of Mahabharat. The dice of connectivity loaded by China has left India confused
and bewildered, whether to remain tied to the aprons of declining super power which is
not in a position to make big investments, or to hitch the bandwagon of ascending power
which promises a lot.

Modis position will become more vulnerable when Pakistan starts politically stabilizing
and economically shining and Lahore turning into a regional capital and he unable to
fulfill the development agenda.

India is also concerned about Chinas huge investment in Pakistan, particularly its recent
decision to fund a new batch of nuclear reactors. Pakistan plans to add four new nuclear
plants by 2023, funded by China, with four more reactors in the pipeline (adding up to a
total power capacity of 7,930 MW by 2030). China is helping Pakistan in producing
plutonium at Chinese built Khushab reactor and will also sell 8 submarines worth $5
billion, which will give a quantum jump to Pak Navys sea capability.

Possibility of India making another somersault after finding the dicey US Asia-Pacific
pivot less attractive and Chinas policy of peace and friendship more beneficial cannot be
ruled out. However, this strategic shift will take place only when China agrees to give
preference to India over Pakistan (as had happened in 1990 when the US ditched
Pakistan and befriended India).

11- Pakistans Travails:

Pakistan has remained under a dark star for a long period. It has bravely sailed past the
period of trials and tribulations but at a very heavy cost. Pakistan has acted as the
frontline state against the Soviets and against global terrorism and suffered enormously,
but in the process it allowed China 35 free years to develop and prosper unobtrusively.

12- Changing Geo-Political Environment:

Geo-political scenario is fast changing and things are brightening up for Pakistan after its
long rocky journey. China has entered into a new era of geo-economic relationship with
Pakistan and plan to boost two-way trade from current $12 billion to $20 billion. Pak-
Afghan relations have dramatically improved. ISI and NDS have inked intelligence
sharing agreement. Afghanistan and China no more listen to Indias song of terrorism
emanating out of Pakistan.

Pakistan wisely deciding not to take part in Yemen war has helped in improving Pak-Iran
relations. Possibility of revival of IPL project and its extension up to China has brightened
up after gradual lifting of US sanctions on Iran. Russia is warming up to Pakistan and
establishing military ties with it. China and Russia are strategic partners and boosting
their respective strategic ties with Iran. Pakistan is likely to be inducted as member of
the SCO and possibly member of BRICS.
Internally, Pakistan economic indicators and GDP are improving; foreign exchange
reserves are rising and inflation is down. Railway has gone in profit for first time. Energy
crisis is being tackled earnestly. The leaders and the led are on one page to deal with
scourge of terrorism on war footing. The world is fast changing its negative opinion
about Pakistan and it is now being looked at with respect. Pakistan flags are being
routinely hoisted in occupied Kashmir; IDPs are returning to South and North Waziristan,
and so are Afghan refugees.

China has risked investing so much of amount in Pakistan since it is convinced of the
genuineness of the Pakistani claim of a paradigm shift in its approach to terrorist groups.
This change has come as a consequence to across the board Operation Zarb-e-Azb in
FATA and spectacular successes achieved against terrorists of all hues including the
Uyghur.

The Silk Road Economic Belt will not only connect and develop China and Pakistan but
also the regional countries for the first time and promote peace. This phenomenon will
be against Indias aggressive chemistry.

13- Pakistans Expected Gains:

a. CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities for Pakistan and will greatly help in
overcoming poverty, unemployment, inequities of smaller provinces and help Pakistan in
becoming the next Asian tiger.

b. CPEC from all counts will prove a game changer and will make China a real
stakeholder in Pakistans stability and security. It is a win-win situation for both. It will
greatly expand the scope for the sustainable and stable development of Chinas
economic development.

c. Investments by China will boost Pakistans $274 billion GDP by over 15 %.

d. Corresponding progress and prosperity in Pakistan and Chinas patronage will help
Pakistan in getting rid of the decade old labels of epicentre of terrorism, most
dangerous country and a failing state.

e. Given the solid foundations of friendship at the people-to-people level between China
and Pakistan, Chinese influence in Pakistan is destined to endure the test of time.

f. Pakistan seems to have found a saviour in China, which has promised to stand by the
country in its dark hour. Once Pak-China connectivity strike roots, Pakistans geo-
strategic security interests whenever threatened will be guarded by China.

g. Chinas investment surpasses all foreign investments in Pakistan in the past. Win-win
cooperation is based on trust, confidence and convergence of interests. The Chinese
influence in Pakistan has touched an unprecedented high level and it has surpassed the
US which has remained the most preferred ally since 1954.

h. The US which has repeatedly betrayed Pakistan and is widely disliked by the public
will have to negotiate with Pakistan harder than ever from now onward. The elites under
the magic spell of the US are also inclined to change their western oriented mindset and
change their orientation.

j. Pakistan enjoys a more favorable fiscal budget situation compared to India by reducing
its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2014 (as against Indias 7%) and Pakistan is much
cheaper as an emerging market.
k. Chinas economic and military assistance will help Pakistan a great deal in narrowing
its ever widening gap in economic-military-nuclear fields with India and in bettering its
defence potential.

l. Keeping strategic parity with India has now become an achievable goal for Pakistan.

m. Revival of economy in the coming period is bound to make Pakistan an attractive

destination for foreign investors and will greatly help in removing socio-economic
inequities of smaller provinces and in squeezing the space for anti-Pakistan elements.

n. The success of the Sino-Pak partnership is critically linked to the success of

stabilization of the Afghan situation. China and Pakistan have a shared interest in the
stabilization of Afghanistan, because the main threat to the realization of the Belt and
Road projects in Pakistan come from the terrorist groups operating out of the Af-Pak
region.

o. Pakistan is far more comfortable with China as a facilitator of the Afghan peace talks
than it is with the US, whose intentions are highly suspect.

p. Chinas investment in Pakistan has conveyed a big message to the other South Asian
countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal to hurry and climb on board the Chinese
Belt and Road Initiative to derive growth benefits.

q. Pakistans gravitation in the direction of China and Russia at this juncture underscores
a strategic realignment in the making.

r. China is uniquely placed to pull the key regional states Russia, Iran, Central Asian
states to its side.

14- Efforts to Scuttle CPEC:

Strategic economic moment for Pakistan has arrived and interesting part is that Pakistan
has assumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region. This paradigm shift in
circumstances is a cause of great worry for the enemies of Pakistan both within and
outside. India, Iran, UAE, Gulf States, Israel, US are unhappy. For India, CPEC is a thorn
in its paw
They have put their heads together to work out new strategies how to block the forward
march. RAW has opened a special office in Delhi and has been allotted $300 million to
disrupt CPEC. Already one can notice sudden upsurge in acts of terror in the three
restive regions and activation of certain NGOs and think tanks all trying to air misgivings
and create fear psychosis.

ANP, Baloch nationalists, PkMAP raised serious objections on the routes of CPEC and
alleged these have been changed. Even PTI and JUI-F showed inclinations to climb the
bandwagon of anti-CPEC forces. Objections were being raised despite assurances by the
government that no change has been made.

15- Controversies Raised in CPEC:

Eastern route benefits Punjab and Sindh and bypasses major portion of Baluchistan and
KP.

In their view, western route is original route, conceived in 2006 and is shortest.

CPEC not transparent and kept under wraps.

Three-route theory is a cover story to hide change of route.

Eastern route is six-lane motorway.

Western route is 1-2 lane roads.

Orange Line Train project is from CPEC allocations.

Special Economic Zones are inequitably distributed.

Eastern route is unsafe being close to Indian border.

16- Governments Stance:

No original route in existence before 2013.

CPEC project director Maj Gen Zahir Shah stated that no document is in existence
showing original route; hence changing of original route doesn't arise.

Western route will be developed as motorway by extending Kashgar-Karakorum

Highway.

Work on three routes has started simultaneously.

15 year project has short/mid/long term projects.

Government and China wished to first develop eastern route due to factors of security,
better infrastructure and early completion.

Western route will be a long term project since it is uninhabited, insecure, time
consuming.

Provincial capitals will be nodes of CPEC.

Orange Line project is Punjab project funded by Punjab govt.

Proposed 16 industrial zones not yet finalised.

Development of backward provinces is high priority of govt.

Power projects are more in KP, followed by Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan respectively.

17- Ramifications:

Political consensus, security and law and order are pre-requisites for early completion of
CPEC

China has other options to exercise if Pakistan fails to deliver.

Pakistan cannot afford to lose this golden opportunity.

Successive govts will have to remain focused and committed to completion of projects in
hand.

Provinces should focus on industrial parks, energy projects instead of routes.

Trade routes are not developed on basis of ethnicity but on basis of convenience and
requirements.
There is skepticism that administrative, technical and operational capacity of workforce
and staff of Pakistan employed in CPEC may not match the Chinese
efficiency/commitment, and also fail to absorb huge investment productively.

18- Actions in hand:

Operations in restive areas have been geared up.

Agenda of NAP has been expedited, although not satisfactorily.

10,000 strong Special Security Division has been created to provide foolproof security.

APC was held on May 13 to remove misgivings on CPEC. Another meeting was held on
May 28 and in this consensus was achieved after PM agreed to develop western route
first.

Special Parliamentary Committee has been formed to address complaints.

Working groups will be formed in July and economic zones decided in consultation with
provinces.

No funds will be transferred from CPEC allocations for Orange Line project. China will
however gift additional funds to complete this project in two years.

19- Conclusion:

The CPEC connected to Gwadar has the potential to radically alter the regional dynamics
of trade, development and politics. CPEC is a game changer for the entire region. It will
uplift the lives of about 3 billion people across China, Central Asia, South Asia and the
Middle East.

The time and tide is not in favor of the detractors. They will die their death in the
hurricane of CPEC since China is determined to make Pakistan a success story. $46
billion economic package is Chinese gift for people of Pakistan.

Essay : Energy Crisis in Pakistan

Essay:
ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN
OUTLINE:

1. Introduction
2. Pakistans Energy Sector
2.1 Energy Supply
2.2 Energy Consumption

3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan

3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels)
a). Petroleum products
b). Natural Gas
c). Coal
3.2 Renewable Resources
a). Hydro power
Current Hydropower stations
Potential Hydropower stations
3.3 Alternative Energy Sources
a). Wind
b). Solar
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel
d). Tidal
3.4 Nuclear
4. Causes of Energy Crisis
4.1 Growing Energy Demand
4.2 Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy
4.3 Imbalanced energy mix
4.4 Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources
a). Thar Coal
b). Hydal power generation

5. Consequences of Energy Crisis

5.1 Economic Factors
5.2 Agriculture Sector
5.3 Industrial Sector
5.4 Unemployment
5.5 Social Issues
5.6 Poverty

6. Conclusion
7. Recommendation/Solutions of Energy Crisis
7.1 Judicious energy use/saving unnecessary energy usage
electricity saving devices
Awareness campaign for energy saving
Reduction in unnecessary transportations
Installation of effective equipment/energy efficient in industries
Decreasing line/transmission losses

7.2 Developing new energy resources

Tapping indigenous resources
Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
 Import of natural gas
Utilizing alternative energy resources
Wind power
Biodiesel /Biomass
Solar
Tidal

1. Introduction:
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of
socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories
and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial
development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production.
Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged.
An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy
resources to an economy.
2. Pakistans Energy Sector:
Pakistans energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be
underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis.
Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious
efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand
growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal
reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the
demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power
shutdown.
2.1 Energy Supply:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of
0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able
to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW
per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
2.2 Energy Consumption:
Pakistans energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources
with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0
percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited Expensive]
Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of
animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These
resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum,
natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

a). Petroleum products:

In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority
of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and
transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house
holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total
electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of
crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting
approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we
will exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.

b). Natural Gas:

Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76
million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year,
showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare
consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate electricity.
In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy consumption is
43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted
to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the
largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around
0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop deforestation in
hilly areas.

c). Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion metric tones, including 175 billion
metric tones identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and
cement industries and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is
not considered of good quality.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two
largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb
River (1,300 MW).

3.2 Renewable Resources: (Unlimited sustainable clean)

Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and come from
resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.

a). Hydro power:

Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving
water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of total
electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW
against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.

Current Hydropower stations:

Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MW
Mangla 1,000 MW
Warsak 240 MW
Chashma 184 MW

Potential Hydropower stations:

Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW
Munda Dam Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW
Bunji Dam 5400 MW
Dasu Dam 3800 MW
3.3 Alternative Sources of Energy :

a). Wind:
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These
turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has
potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation
through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first
phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More
wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.

b). Solar:
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight
hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of
more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in
Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels /
solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board
(AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have
been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from
petroleum to solar energy panels.

c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel:

Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane,
corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is
produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation and wood
can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols.
Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world,
followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned
to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar
projects in twenty cities of country.

d). Tidal:
Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in
a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then
store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable, and sustainable
energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy; however, no implementation has been
made so far.

3.4 Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of
uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW
capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in
nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining
issues in development of nuclear energy are enrichment of uranium from U235 to U238,
controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.

Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors

Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR* 125 1966 1972
 Chashma 1 PWR** 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR** 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) Chinese based reactors

4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistans energy crisis traces its roots to following distinct
causes :
4.1 Growing Energy Demand:
Over the years there is greater need of energy because of;
Increase in population,
Enhancement in lifestyle
Industrial and agricultural growth
Greater transportation needs
4.2 Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy:
Pakistan has had wider potentials to tap energy, however, due to lack of any
integrated/proactive planning, very less number of power producing plant were installed to
meet futuristic demands. Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and
supply drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500
MW.
4.3 Imbalance energy mix:
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater
reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % - majority of which is
imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political
crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to
renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and solar
energy). Nuclear energy can
4.4 Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:
Thar Coal:
Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175
billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer
production.
Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and
economic prosperity to many families.
Hydal power generation :
Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only
6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.
Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400
MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity.
Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
5. Consequences of Energy Crisis:
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy
directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by
decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One
important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed
to shortfalls in energy supply.
 ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of
energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and
pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in
energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in
energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units
are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new
employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by
the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards
unemployment.

v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking,
heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people
and results in agitation against the government.

vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment

and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent
of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample
control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, more or less, plagued all sectors of Pakistans machinery ranging from
economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering
national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be
overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive
implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to
utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the
country.

7. Recommendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis:

Energy crisis can be curtailed by:
i). Reducing unnecessary energy use:
Usage of electricity saving devices
Awareness campaign for energy saving
Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems and
strengthening Pakistan railways
Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with
increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)
Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are
increasing prices of electricity.
Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
ii). Developing new energy resources:
Tapping indigenous resources (Thar coal)
Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran, Pakistan, India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India) pipelines.
 Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran
(approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
Utilizing alternative energy resources :
Wind power
Biodiesel /Biomass
Solar
Tidal
Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity.

Essay: State of Women in Pakistan

State of Women in Pakistan
Introduction:
Woman is one of the best creatures of the universe. She has been equally endowed with in
terms of intellect, prudence and rights as man has been.The state of woman in Pakistan as
compared to man are awfully miserable. She is badly victim of domestic violence and sexual
assaults at working places. She is indeed meted out with massive atrocity and injustice. She
is being denied her due social, economic, political and financial rights. She suffers badly in
pursuit of her fundamental rights.
Surprisingly enough, she has been deprived of her basic birth right of education which is the
best source of women empowerment. It is only education that can empower her not only
socially but also financially and professionally. It will be because of education that helps her
widen the mental horizon. Thus, it is an undeniable fact that provision of education to every
ordinary woman on the basis of equality can considerably change her fate. Undoubtedly,
education plays a role of backbone in the development of woman at every level.
The state of rural women as compared to urban ones needs urgent attention. The rural
women are undergoing worst experiences at the hands of feudal lards. The have been kept
vastly ignorant of their fundamental rights such as education, health, participation in
politics, professional and financial liberty. They being illiterate and uneducated can not fight
for their basic rights. This gruesome state of woman is just because of lack of education.
Inevitably enough, poor economic condition of woman has badly told upon state of woman.
She has no say in any domestic affairs of life. She has been victim of male dominance. It is
only male, who is to wield power in both domestic and private affairs of life. Whether it be
choice of marriage, casting votes and some other financial and professional matters.
There is another social evil of our society which is feudalism. It wipes out the entire factors
which help woman to be empowered. It has really become a stumbling block in woman
Empowerment. This social evil urgently needs to be addressed so that the chances of woman
empowerment can became possible in the near future.
Truly speaking, the poor state of woman can only be improved by promoting education
ranging from primary to higher level and opening up the doors of opportunity for jobs in
different departments. So that they can become socially, economically, politically and
professionally strong.

Factors which mar state of women in Pakistan

Illiteracy
Poverty
 Feudalism
Weak institution
Judiciary
Parliament
Executive
Lack of Political awareness
Cultural barriers
Misinterpretation of Islam in terms of woman empowerment
Corrupt media
Illiteracy:
Illiteracy indeed is a big obstacle to the social, economic and political development of
woman. It has rendered common woman the helpless, voiceless and ignorant of their basic
privileges. They being illiterate and under privileged cannot voice against the atrocities
meted out to them. They have been reduced to extreme voracity and hunger. The developed
nations of the world are encouraging woman empowerment by promoting standard
education to women. Thus, they become strong not only socially and economically but also
politically and professionally while the less developed countries are questing for foreign aid
in terms of female education and spends a negligible amount of education and the rest of the
amount is to be swallowed by the corrupt people and overlooking the standard of female
education. As a result, most of the women remain illiterate and become unaware about their
birth rights of education.
Finally, if education is given to women, they can easily become able to snatch their
fundamental rights. They can also become capable of doing profession and thus avoiding the
pangs of hunger and voracity.
Truly speaking, promotion of education among women can enable them to be economically
and politically strong. Thus, they will stop depending upon their parents in terms of financial
support.
Poverty:
It is well said that poverty is the mother of crime or revolution. So far it has not brought
about revolution in society but it has surely raised the ratio of crime in society. Poverty and
illiteracy are inextricably interwoven with each other. Illiteracy breeds poverty and poverty
creates crime and crime disrupts the whole social economic. As a result, not only the women
but also the entire society suffers at the hands of poverty. There is no doubt about it that
poverty has rendered common women unable to attain even primary education. Thus many a
woman falls prey to it becoming helpless and fed up. It is only because of poverty that
woman is socially, economically and politically weak. If all women were rich enough to deal
with all affairs of life, they could exercise enormous influence in every spheres of life. They
usually depend on their male members in terms of economic and social security. Resultantly,
they turn, to be enormously weak and fragile. Poverty has really affected on the creative
ability of women. It has bred numerous hindrances in the way of womens intellectual
development. As it is rightly said that hungry man is angry man. It means when you are
hungry, you are not in a position to do any work effectively. Thus it can safely be said that if
poverty remains intact then there is a greater unlikelihood of women empowerment and the
state of poor woman cannot improve in near future.

Feudalism:
Feudalism is a greater impediment to social, economic and political development of women.
It has utterly damaged the state of women in Pakistan. Feudalistic attitude in any society is
not a good omen. It often discourages national development of a country.
Regrettably enough, the state of women in Pakistan has been reduced to the beasts and
animals. It is only feudal who exercise absolute power over women and their male member
are at their call and back. They dare not voice against their opinions or views. They are their
slaves and nothing more. The poor farmers whether male or female heavily depend on them
for their livelihood. They have no any source of income except harboring the fields of
landlords. Moreover, feudalism is a huge hindrance to educational development whether it is
for girls or boys. They dont allow the government to build schools in their premises. If
government does this forcibly such schools soon are turned into go downs or animals
quarters. As a result, no girl and boy can get education. They think that if they acquire
education, then we will not be able to lead them by their nose. In this way, they want to keep
them illiterate throughout life so that they may not be able to demand of their basic rights.
Surprisingly enough, it is feudal who promote culture of honor killing and discourage the
factors leading towards better state of women.

Weak institutions:
The Institutions of Pakistan are judiciary, parliament and executive. All of them are almost
failed to provide social, political and economic justice to women. The reasons as to why they
are failure in provision of social, economic and political justice is discussed below
respectively.
Judiciary: It is well said that justice delayed justice denied. It means that just judiciary plays
a vital role in catering immediate justice. But here the condition of justice is painfully
miserable. The person seeking for immediate justice and it is found no where in our society.
Poor women are suffering from sheer injustice at the hands of judiciary. It has become
absolutely incapable of imparting justice. It has become dishonest and corrupt. Corruption
has died down their economic and making those living dead.
Parliament: parliament is one of the great institutions of Pakistan. It consists of the elected
representatives of the four provinces. It is a supreme power of the country. It legislate
various bills and policies for the betterment of the country. It has passed a number of laws
for innumerable purposes of the country; so far it has also passed many a law for protection
of women rights. Different governments have passed different ordinances and laws for the
social and economic security of women. Zia regime passed hudood ordinance in which
women were safeguarded against sexual assaults and adultery. Qazf was also promoted in his
regime for the social security of women. Qazf is a false allegation of adultery against woman,
if it proves false; the man will be subject to punishment.
Musharaf government encouraged woman empowerment at a considerable level various
ordinances were passed for enhancement of woman empowerment. Woman protection bill
was also enacted in his regime which further made woman socially strong. After the
overthrow of Musharaf government the government of Pakistan peoples party came and
passed a law of domestic violence against woman and the laws of sexual harassment against
woman at working places were passed. Thus they strengthened the position of woman in
society. In spite of all the bills or laws the poor woman is still in a pitiable condition. These
laws are passed in the parliament but when it comes to implementations the things appear
quite contrary. As a result a woman who is extremely poor and has no access to attain justice
suffers at the hands of weak institutions.
Executive: Parliament makes different laws and executive implements it in a country. But the
implementation of law is least to be found in this country. Law enforcement agencies are
themselves victim of corruption. They have failed to enforce law in the country effectively.
Police department concerned with crime happening everyday in the country has not yielded
positive results in terms of reducing crime. The poor women who are daily victimized at the
hands of certain criminals are not given adequate and human treat men by the police
officials. Women are insecure when they are in the custody of police. They are inevitably
prone to sexual assaults by the police officials. The women who came in quest of relief fall
prey to brutal treatment by the concerned officials. We need to think about it and it will have
to take a way out for the securities of women so that they cannot fall succumb to their brutal
and beast- like treatment in near future.
Lack of political awareness:
Lack of political awareness has also wreaked havoc on the socio-economic and political
development of women. They are being politically unaware do not yearn for their political
rights.
Undoubtedly, political awareness can further strengthen the position of women in every walk
of life. After being politicized, they will earn greater knowledge about the political issues all
over the world. Thus they will begin snatching their basic political and economic rights. The
role of politicians for the widespread political activism among women has not been
satisfactory enough. Indeed, they are supposed to be politicizing women about vari0ous
issues pertaining to womens political rights. This poor and miserable state of women has
greatly affected to their contribution in political affairs of life. Surprisingly enough, most of
the women do not know about the value of their votes. They are quite ignorant of it and do
not ponder over it that it can play a decisive role in helping any party to win by the margin of
one vote. It is the crying need of the hour that our politicians should take this issue very
seriously so that the state of poor and wretched women can be improved not only politically
bout also socially and economically.
Cultural Barriers:
Cultural barriers are too big hindrances to the socio-economic development of women. It has
ruthlessly marred the state women especially in Pakistan. Rigid and narrow attitude of male
members toward women have helplessly made women dependent and short sighted.
It is surprising to say, that Pakistani society is male-domestic as well as private affairs of life.
It has massively rendered women helpless, voiceless and destitute. The state of miserable
women can not improve until cultural barriers of our society be rationalized and educated
well. So that the condition of women can considerably be altered in terms of professional,
social and economic liberty. Most of the people do not allow their children especially
daughters to do a job and they think it to be a bad omen for them. It is their mindsets that
disallow their children doing a job. As a result, many a woman suffers professionally and
economically. When their as a question of marriage at their whim. Women or girls are not
given the permission for their choice marriage as they remain under the thumb of male
members who are to exercise absolute power in do most affairs of life. Thus women
experience sheer injustice at the hands of parents. As a result, women have been chained in
cultural chains which restrict their personal freedom. Finally, the women empowerment
cannot be developed unless they are given professional and financial liberty.
Misinterpretation of Islam about women empowerment:
Misinterpretation of Islam about women empowerment has also been contradictory. The
religious scholars of the county are not portraying the real Islamic teachings in terms of
improving the state of women.
Historically speaking, Islam is teeming with numerous examples about the liberty of women
in professional as well as personal liberty. Bibi khadeja the first wife of the Prophet was a
business woman. She used to run her business not only in Arabia but also some other
countries. It means Islam had permitted women for being professional and the Prophet
Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH) was her employee who used to visits the different countries by
virtue of business. There is another glaring example about womens being professional and
warrior. Bibi Aysha Prophets wife a war against Hazrat Ali. It means that she can wage a war
participate in it. Thus it is proven from the facts of Islam that women are free to be
professionals and adopt any way that can protect her basic rights of liberty. But regrettably
the ulema of Islam are not discussing these basic issues of women empowerment in open
public. They can address these issues at the occasion of Juma prayer frequently and this
frequent discussion can remove rigid and narrow minded approach toward women. Reqular
Juma prayer address regarding the state of women in Pakistan can mould the opinion of
common men in favour of women. In this way every ordinary man will be vastly aware of the
rights of women. As a result, of all these repeated address, as about women empowerment
can help the masses to care for the privileges of women. But what happens here that every
ulema belonging to the lower category who are virtually hailing from villages admit in
madressa for the purpose of gaining religious knowledge. Now how can man hailing from
village can easily understand the multi dimensional modern scientific trends and
requirements of the globe. This seems quite impossible that this kind of man may represent
true Islam. He cannot fathom out the various global phenomena such as woman
empowerment, rise of democracy, professional and personal liberty, religious tolerance.
Finally, the role of ulema can play an effective role in bringing about the improvement in the
state of women and it can further develop the state of women in better condition.
Corrupt media:
Corrupt media men have played havoc with socio-economic and political development of
women. It has not yielded positive result yet. It has failed to protect the real state of women
of Pakistan at international level. Majority of the poor women being victim of domestic or
professional violence cannot cast their viewpoints before any authorized organization of the
state. The reason as to why the media has not reached them is lack of access to the far flung
areas of the country. Most of the media men demand for certain amount of rupees for
projecting their issue at national as well as international level. These are number of women
who die of hunger daily. They cannot eke out their living comfortably. The media persons are
absolutely reluctant to spread the news at a considerable level. But on the contrary they
make fun of their misery and plight. In this way one can find such examples in our society on
daily basis.
Now it is our responsibility being citizens of the country that we should exercise enormous
pressure on the media men to end this brutal trend of women harassment which bitterly
mass the state of women.

The factors that can foster women development are as under:

Promotion of education among women.
Reduction of poverty.
Abolition of feudalism.
Strong institution ensuring women empowerment.
Social, political, cultural financial and professional liberty among women.
Positive role f religions in terms of women empowerment.
Job opportunities for women.
Legislation on honor-killing, child marriage and vatta-satta system of marriage.
Promotion of education among women:
Promotion of education among women at primary and secondary level can greatly improve
the state of women in Pakistan. Indeed it is education that renders common women socially
politically and economically strong. When they become strong, they stop being dependent on
their parents in terms of support. Thus the state of women can highly be improved by the
incredible enhancement of education among them.
Reduction of poverty:
This is an undeniable fact that poverty has wreaked havoc with socio-economic and political
development of women. It is poverty that has made them unable to get standard education.
It is because of lack of education less access to wealth that women face sheer injustice and
torture at the hands of cruel and barbaric people. They bear that torture and persecution in
ignorance. As a result, most women fall succumb to depression and dejection. If the
government of Pakistan and other several NGOs working for the reduction of the poverty
take it serious and start pondering over the plight of woman that she suffers because of
abject poverty can easily be managed so as to make the state of women better and worth
living.
Abolition of Feudalism:
Truly speaking, it is feudalism that has brought common woman to the verge of destruction
and devastation. It has become a great hurdle in improving the state of Pakistan woman. It
has incredibly discouraged promotion of education of both male and female in rural areas in
particular and common in urban areas. It means it has utterly damaged the state of women
in Pakistan. Now it is the crying need of the hour that it must be wiped out of the face of the
globe so that the state of woman and colossal development at national level can be ensured
for the better future of the country. Because developed countries of the world see the
development of women in different sphere of life. Later they call the developed countries the
developed ones. If the state of women is not plausible then they do not call it a developed
country.
Strong institutions:
Strong institutions play a vital role in developing socio-economic and political condition of
women. Undoubtedly, strong institutions can certainly provide for speedy justice and viable
implementations of different laws passed by the assembly. If these institutions start working
effectively and honestly, nothing can do wrong in the country. All the developed countries, it
is just because of their strong institutions that they face no pangs of torture and persecution
at the hands of the institutions.
Again it is institutions that can help improve not only the oppressed women but also every
segment of society, victim of any oppression and brutality. Social, political, cultural, financial
and professional liberty can massively improve the state of women in Pakistan. Social and
political development of women can help them to be socially and politically active and
enabling them to participate in social-politico activities of life. This will enhance their
intellectual and personal qualities. On the other hand, financial and professional liberty of
women can also make them self reliant and self dependent. They will deal their matters of
life on their won. They being professionally liberal begin their independent life depending on
no body in terms of economy. Thus, socio-economic and political liberty of women can
enormously add to the development of women in every walk of life.
Positive role of religious scholars in terms of womens empowerment:
Religious scholars can play a positive role in bringing about improvement in the state of
women. Ours is a highly religious society. It greatly influences their socio-economic spheres
of life. It is religious scholars who can easily mould the opinions of various persons in terms
of developing the social, economic and political development of women. Islam is also in
favour of women empowerment. It was Islam which gave her due socio-economic rights. It
never discouraged their professional and personal liberty. But here the ulemas of our country
are not addressing there sensitive issues so as to develop their role in every walk of life. Last
but not the least, the state of women can massively be improved if the role of our religious
scholars remains positive and satisfactory.
Job opportunities for women:
Indubitably enough, job opportunities for women in different departments are very scanty.
This has badly discouraged women from applying for the jobs. They have least means to
scraps by. As a result, most of them get fed with seeking for something than can meet their
incomes. Thus it is inevitably necessary that our government should open the doors of
opportunities for their jobs in various departments so that they can make the best of their
abilities in earning certain amount of sum and lead an easy and comfortable life. This will
further encourages the women empowerment and make them excited for applying next time
for the jobs.
Legislation on honour, killing, child marriage of girls and system of vatta-satta marriage:
Traditional honour-killing, child marriage of girls and system of vatta-satta marriage has
awfully maligned the state of women in Pakistan. These hateful traditional practices are
extremely obnoxious for women development. If the present phenomenon remains intact,
the development of women at socio-economic and political level might be least possible. It is
now crying need of the hour that government of Pakistan, should legislate on these sensitive
issues which halt women empowerment at a large scale parliament, judiciary and executive
may take strong measures in order to tackle these in for moldable problems which are
extremely injurious to the social, economic, political professional progress of women. If these
institutions are failed to cope with these issues then surely the state of women in Pakistan is
in great jeopardy.
Conclusion:
Finally, the state of women can only be improved on the basis of promotion of education,
greater participation in politics and widespread awareness about social, economic and
political issues. Professional and financial liberty can further improve the state of women.
Reduction of poverty and feudalism can open numerous chances for the improvement of the
state of woman in Pakistan. Positive role of religious scholars and media can hopefully
ameliorate the miserable state of women in to a pleasant one. Last but not the least, the role
of strong and cogent institutions can also heighten the state of women of Pakistan.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb: An Overview |

Tehmina Maqbool Khattak
Pakistans role as leading state in U.S led war on terror in Afghanistan and the region since 9/11 has
jeopardized its domestic and regional security. Pakistan has remunerated a weighty price for its
dedicated commitment to confine terrorism within and afar the region. In the interim enduring expansion
of TTP and other militant groups in tribal areas near Afghanistan border had endangered internal
security of Pakistan. Pakistan army comprehended threats timely and dedicated its capabilities for
combating terrorism. In 2009, Pakistan Army has undertaken elated operations like Rah-e Rast and
Rah-e Nijat in selected areas to track sense of serenity and security in people of Pakistan.

In the wake of the 8th June,2014 attack on Jinnah International Airport in Karachi and execution of 23
Frontier Corps soldiers in Feb 2014 for which the TTP, IMU and Taliban claimed responsibility
correspondingly and realizing the murderous perils in recent years, Pakistan Army had primed for
operation long before.Thus a military campaign ,operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched by the Pakistan
Armed Forces on 15th June 2014 in North Waziristan as a renewed effort in opposition to militancy.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched with complete political backing and support of the nation. Since
militancy in NWA (North Waziristan Agency) could not be treated in isolation, therefore an all inclusive
and far reaching approach was adopted in the shape of operation Zarb-e-Azb.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb was started in Miran Shah Sector that had become the focal point of terrorism in
Pakistan .After eliminating terrorists from Miran Shah, the Army headed towards Datta Khel Sector
where its forces combated with militants and foreign fighters. Up till now 80% of the area is wiped out
from terrorists and army is now engaged in Ghluam Khan Area near Pak-Afghan border. Pakistan army
has successfully cleared the area by killing more than 1000 terrorist and has captured extensive quantity
of arms and ammunition. Parallel to operations in North Waziristan, 2274 intelligence led successful
counter terrorism operations were undertaken by security forces across the country in which 42
terrorists were killed. Our Army has commendably cleared five major cities considered as hub of
terrorists activities i.e Miran Shah, Mir Ali, Datta Khel, Boya and Degan. As a leading victory, Pakistan
Army has obliterated 88 KM long Khajuri-Mir Ali-Miran Shah-Datta Khel and Ghariom-Jhallar axis from
radical evils. The equipment that has been recovered / destroyed during the operations include small
and heavy weapons with tons of ammunition, currency, military equipment, hardware, communication
equipment and other logistics facilities.27 IED (Improvised Explosive Device) factories, tunnels holding
Rocket manufacturing facility, one ammunition factory, sophisticated instruments for preparing IEDs,
mass production centre of suicide jackets, mines and state of the art IEDs, and booby trapped weapons.

Even after trailing more than 40,000 precious lives in this war against terror Pakistani nation and army
has proved to be most brave and devoted entities. With righteous devotion and altruistic sincerity,
Pakistan army is successfully combating and eradicating local and foreign terrorists from the North
Waziristan. Our undaunted army has faced irreparable loses in achieving these accomplishments
i.e. 226 lionhearted brave officers and soldiers have embraced shahadat while 811 heroes are
severely injured. Since 15 June 2014, 64 stouthearted soldiers have laid their lives in North Waziristan,
42 in FATA and 121 in remaining parts of entire country including Baluchistan and Karachi.

In the wake of Zarb-e-Azab operation launched by Pakistan Army in North Waziristan Agency about
1 million people have left their homes, properties, livestock, assets, and are now dwelling under tough
circumstance. To lessen the desolations, Pakistan Army is extending its plentiful potentials in relief
operations for temporarily dislocated people (TDPs) of North-Waziristan agency and continues to help
people from North Waziristan. For the nutritional relief of TDPs 19376 Tons of food supplies have been
distributed among 97570 TDPs families at 6 relief delivery points established by Pakistan Army in
Bannu, Dera Ismail khan and Tank. Pakistan army medical corps at Khalifa Gul Nawaz Hospital Bannu
has provided health facilities by establishing field medical Hospital in which 113209 patients including
32979 females have been treated yet. Besides this, Pakistan army has also provided the facility of
veterinary hospital where 3226 cattle have been treated and along with those 73338 cattle, 129141
poultry vaccinated. Pakistan army has dispatched 4 tons of dressed meat from North-Waziristan for
sustenance, alleviation and relief of TDPs.

With unabated sincerity and devoutness Pakistan army is engaged in herculean task to encounter-
brush off drastic and iniquity forces from Pakistan distinctively the tribal areas near Afghan border .All
stakeholders are taken on board to work and implement counter terrorism polices in Pakistan,
simultaneously received allegations and commendations from home and abroad for its anti-terror
efforts. Pakistan army has maximized its potentials to clear the area from terrorist, irrespective of origin
and hue. Much in the same manner, Pakistan army is stanch to provide relief, ease and cure to the
TDPs, relief funds have been granted by regional governments as well .Pakistan army aims to ensure
the transparent, equitable and accountable disbursement of every penny to the TDPs of North
Waziristan and whole nation is praising these sterling efforts of Pak army. God willing, with the strike of
Prophets sharps sword (Zrb-e-Azb), Pakistan army shall coup the areas with no terrorist left.

ashmir Issue Past To Present | By Miss

Mominah Qazi
The ongoing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the status of the contested areas of
Jammu and Kashmir (henceforth Kashmir) is well known and well documented. The high roof of the
world, the Gilgit-Baltistan and the Ladakh region of the pre-independence state of Jammu and Kashmir
is geo- strategically very important. This region lies between the high Hindu Kush and
Karakoram mountainranges to its north and the WesternHimalayas to its immediate south, with the
Kashmir Vale and the Jammu region further south.
The strategic importance of J&K can be understood from the fact that China is spending huge sums to
build infrastructure through highways connecting Tibet to Xinjiang through the Chinese occupied Akshai
Chin plateau, and Xinjiang to Pakistan via the Karakorum highway through the Kunzreb pass. This
highway then connects Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, givingwarm water port and access to the
Indian Ocean to China. Its importance can be visualized in that China trade can avoid the bottleneck of
Malacca straits as also cuts down turn round to the interior Provinces of China. China has deployed
more than ten thousand troops for the purpose of developing infrastructure in the GB area.
British rule in India ended in 1947 with the creation of a new state: the Dominion of Pakistan alongside
the Union of India, the successor state to British India, while British suzerainty over the 562 Indian
princely states ended. According to the Indian Independence Act 1947, the suzerainty of His Majesty
over the Indian States lapses, and with it, all treaties and agreements in force at the date of the passing
of this Act between His Majesty and the rulers of Indian States. States were thereafter left to choose
whether to join India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Jammu and Kashmir, the largest of the
princely states, had a predominantly Muslim population ruled by the Hindu Maharaja Hari Singh.
Following partition, Pakistan had expected the annexation of Kashmir to its territory.

While Indias Kashmir war was fought on a conventional basis, the conflict did not affect its society or
the political system beyond the disputed territory of Kashmir. However, an argument can be made that
the Kashmir dispute has spread throughout India and has become intertwined in long-standing
communal conflicts between proponents of Hindu nationalism (Hindutva) and Indias own Muslim
communities, as evidenced by the recent episodic massacres of Muslims (e.g., the riots associated with
the demolition in 1992 of the mosque at Ayodhya and communal riots in Gujarat in 2002). For a time,
Kashmirs distance from Indias main population centres somewhat distanced the conflict from Indian
society. However, this situation has changed in recent years with terrorist attacks in Indias hinterland
and even in the evolving relationships between the ostensibly secular state of India and its various
religious communities. Needless to say, the Kashmiris themselves, particularly those living in Indian-
administered Kashmir, have borne the direct brunt of the violence perpetrated by Indian security forces
and Islamist militants, and have had to survive the devastation of the civil war.

While the direct costs borne by all parties to the dispute have been enormous, the opportunity costs
have been equally significant. Although both governments tend to downplay the actual costs of the
conflict, there is little evidence that either side understandsor even considersthe extent of these
opportunity costs. Furthermore, the governed people are scarcely aware of the magnitude and kinds
of opportunities that have been sacrificed. Entering these notions of the conflicts direct and opportunity
costs into public debate may be an important step in cultivating constituents for normalization and
resolution of the dispute.
The new prospect that can be explored here entails into moving along three fronts simultaneously. First,
India should grant autonomy to the state well beyond that promised in Article 370 of its Constitution.
Second, India and Pakistan should allow the free movement of people, goods, and commodities
between Pakistan and the part of Kashmir India occupies. The most suitable way of achieving this would
be in the context of the South Asia Free Trade Area. Third, India and Pakistan should become partners,
so that theyalong with a community of international and bilateral donorsmight consider launching a
massive programme of economic development and reconstruction on both sides of the border. Although
the programme would cost $20 billion over a ten-year period, it would roughly double the states gross
domestic product growth rate to 9.5 percent a year, significantly reduce the pool of poverty, and better
integrate the economies of the two parts of the state with Pakistan and northern India, respectively.
This, in turn, would set the stage for the ultimate resolution of this long-standing conflict.
India must be made to understand by the international powers that it cannot be secure without settling
longstanding disputes with its neighbours. If it wishes to grow as a regional or global power, it has no
recourse but to improve relations with its next door nations. Its biggest problem is going to be access
to energy. The cheapest energy as the engine of growth can only come through Pakistan, a simple fact
of geography. But Pakistan too needs to do something. Ill founded internal and external policies have
brought us to a point where plebiscite is almost beyond our reach. Consequently the UN Security
Council almost removed Kashmir Dispute from its permanent agenda, when we rescued it back after
only Herculean efforts. This core dispute at least for now shall have to be decided through multi-faceted,
complex diplomatic manoeuvres. Pakistan should overall define the context and identify Kashmir
dispute within proper context and national interests.
Kashmir conflict is a territorial conflict between India and Pakistan which started just
after partition of India.[2] India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir,
including the Indo-Pakistani Wars of 1947, 1965 and 1999. Furthermore, since 1984 the
two countries have also been involved in several skirmishes over control of the Siachen
Glacier. India claims the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir and as of 2010, administers
approximately 43% of the region, including most of Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, Ladakh,
and the Siachen Glacier. India's claims are contested by Pakistan, which administers
approximately 37% of Kashmir, namely Azad Kashmir and the northern areas of Gilgit
Baltistan.[3][4]

The root of conflict between the Kashmiri insurgents and the Indian Government is tied
to a dispute over local autonomy.[5] Democratic development was limited in Kashmir
until the late 1970s and by 1988 many of the democratic reforms provided by the Indian
Government had been reversed. Non-violent channels for expressing discontent were
thereafter limited and caused a dramatic increase in support for insurgents advocating
violent secession from India.[5] In 1987, a disputed state election[6] created a catalyst
for the insurgency when it resulted in some of the state's legislative assembly members
forming armed insurgent groups.[7][8][9] In July 1988 a series of demonstrations,
strikes and attacks on the Indian Government began the Kashmir Insurgency.

Although thousands of people have died as a result of the turmoil in Jammu and
Kashmir,[10] the conflict has become less deadly in recent years.[11][12] Protest
movements created to voice Kashmir's disputes and grievances with the Indian
government, specifically the Indian Military, have been active in Indian Administered
Kashmir since 1989.[11][12] Elections held in 2008 were generally regarded as fair by
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and had a high voter turnout in spite
of calls by separatist militants for a boycott. The election resulted in the creation of the
pro-India Jammu & Kashmir National Conference, which then formed a government in
the state.[13][14] According to Voice of America, many analysts have interpreted the
high voter turnout in this election as a sign that the people of Kashmir endorsed Indian
rule in the state.[15] But in 2010 unrest erupted after alleged fake encounter of local
youth by security force.[16] Thousands of youths pelted security forces with rocks,
burned government offices and attacked railway stations and official vehicles in steadily
intensifying violence.[17] The Indian government blamed separatists and Lashkar-e-
Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group for stoking the 2010 protests.[18]

However, elections held in 2014 saw highest voters turnout in 25 years of history in
Kashmir.[19][20][21][22] European Union also welcomed elections, called it "free and
fair" and congratulated India for its democratic system.[23][24][25] The European
Parliament also takes cognizance of the fact that a large number of Kashmiri voters
turned out despite calls for the boycott of elections by certain separatist forces.[23]

Contents [hide]
1 Timeline
1.1 Early history
1.2 Partition and dispute
1.3 Indo-Pakistani War of 1947
1.4 Sino-Indian War
1.5 1965 and 1971 wars
1.6 1989 popular insurgency and militancy
1.7 1999 Conflict in Kargil
1.8 2000s Al-Qaeda involvement
2 Reasons behind the dispute
2.1 Indian view
2.2 Pakistani view
3 Chinese view
3.1 Cross-border troubles
3.2 Water dispute
3.3 Pakistan's relation with militants
4 Human rights abuse
4.1 Indian administered Kashmir
4.2 Pakistan administered Kashmir
4.2.1 Azad Kashmir
4.2.2 Gilgit-Baltistan
5 Map issues
6 Recent developments
6.1 Efforts to end the crisis
6.2 2008 militant attacks
6.3 2008 Kashmir protests
6.4 2008 Kashmir elections
6.5 2009 Kashmir protests
6.6 2010 Kashmir Unrest
6.7 2014 Jammu and Kashmir Elections
6.8 October 2014
7 The US Presidents on Conflict
8 Problems Before Plebiscite
8.1 UN Resolution is not Compulsory
8.2 Instrument of Accession
8.3 Article 370
8.4 "Nehru's Promise"
8.5 Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir
8.6 Private Survey
9 See also
10 References
11 Further reading
12 External links
Timeline[edit]
Main article: Timeline of the Kashmir conflict
Early history[edit]
See also: History of Kashmir
According to folk etymology, the name "Kashmir" means "desiccated land" (from the
Sanskrit: Ka = water and shimira = desiccate). The mid-12th century Rajatarangini, a
history of Kashmir written by Kalhana, records that the valley of Kashmir was formerly a
lake. Hindu mythology relates that the lake was drained by the saptarishi or sage,
Kashyapa, son of Marichi, in turn the son of Brahma, who cut a gap in the hills at
Baramulla (Varaha-mula). Once Kashmir had been drained, Kashyapa invited Brahmans
to settle there. This remains the local tradition, and the physical geography of the
territory suggests that it may have some basis in fact. Kashyapa is connected with the
draining of the lake in traditional histories, with the chief town or collection of dwellings
in the valley called Kashyapa-pura, which has been identified as Kaspapyros in
Hecataeus (Apud Stephanus of Byzantium) and the Kaspatyros of Herodotus (3.102,
4.44).[26] Kashmir is also believed to be the country indicated by Ptolemy's
Kaspeiria.[27]

However, an earlier and well known recorded reference can be found in the writings of
Hsien Tsang, a 6th Century Chinese Buddhist who referred to a state called 'Kash-mi-lo'
that had existed in the 1st century.[citation needed]

The Pashtun Durrani Empire ruled Kashmir in the 18th century until its 1819 conquest by
the Sikh ruler Ranjit Singh. Following the First Anglo-Sikh War (18451846), Kashmir
was ceded under the Treaty of Lahore to the East India Company, who sold it shortly
afterwards through the Treaty of Amritsar to Gulab Singh, Raja of Jammu, who
thereafter received the title Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir. From then until the 1947
Partition of India, Kashmir was ruled by the Hindu Maharajas of the princely state of
Kashmir and Jammu, although the majority of the population were Muslim, except in the
Jammu and Ladakh region. However, India which has a population five times larger than
Pakistan has almost the same population of Muslims.[28]

Partition and dispute[edit]

British rule in India ended in 1947 with the creation of a new state: the Dominion of
Pakistan alongside the Union of India, the successor state to British India, while British
suzerainty over the 562 Indian princely states ended. According to the Indian
Independence Act 1947, "the suzerainty of His Majesty over the Indian States lapses,
and with it, all treaties and agreements in force at the date of the passing of this Act
between His Majesty and the rulers of Indian States".[29] States were thereafter left to
choose whether to join India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Jammu and Kashmir,
the largest of the princely states, had a predominantly Muslim population ruled by the
Hindu Maharaja Hari Singh. Following partition, Pakistan had expected the annexation of
Kashmir to its territory.

Hari Singh, the maharaja of Kashmir, initially believed that by delaying his decision he
could maintain the independence of Kashmir, but, caught up in a train of events that
included a revolution among his Muslim subjects along the western borders of the state
and the intervention of Pashtun tribesmen, he signed an instrument of accession on 25
October 1947[30] to the Indian union. This was the signal for intervention both by
Pakistan, which considered the state to be a natural extension of Pakistan, and by India,
which intended to confirm the act of accession.[31]

Indo-Pakistani War of 1947[edit]

Main article: Indo-Pakistani War of 1947
After rumours that the Maharaja supported the annexation of Kashmir by India, militant
Muslims from western Kashmir[31] and Pakistani tribesmen made rapid advances into
the Baramulla sector. Maharaja of Kashmir Hari Singh asked the government of India to
intervene. However, India and Pakistan had signed a non-intervention agreement.
Although tribal fighters from Pakistan had entered Jammu and Kashmir, there was no
solid legal evidence to unequivocally prove that Pakistan was officially involved.[citation
needed] It would have been illegal for India to unilaterally intervene in an open, official
capacity unless Jammu and Kashmir officially joined the Union of India, at which point it
would be possible to send in its forces and occupy the remaining parts.

By the time Pakistani tribesmen reached the outskirts of Srinagar, the Maharaja
desperately needed military assistance. Before the tribesmen's arrived, India argued that
the Maharaja must complete negotiations to cede Jammu and Kashmir to India in
exchange for military aid. The subsequent cession agreement was signed by the
Maharaja and Lord Mountbatten of Burma.[1] In Jammu and Kashmir, National
Conference volunteers worked with the Indian Army to drive out the Pakistanis.[32]

The Instrument of Accession of Kashmir to India was accepted by Viceroy Louis

Mountbatten, 1st Earl Mountbatten of Burma.
The resulting First Kashmir War lasted until 1948, when India sought resolution of the
issue at the UN Security Council. Sheikh Abdullah was not in favour of India seeking UN
intervention because he was sure the Indian Army could free the entire state from
invaders.[32] Following the set-up of the United Nations Commission for India and
Pakistan (UNCIP), the UN Security Council passed Resolution 47 on 21 April 1948. The
measure imposed an immediate cease-fire and called on the Government of Pakistan 'to
secure the withdrawal from the state of Jammu and Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistani
nationals not normally resident therein who have entered the state for the purpose of
fighting.' It also asked Government of India to reduce its forces to minimum strength,
after which the circumstances for holding a plebiscite should be put into effect 'on the
question of Accession of the state to India or Pakistan.'[33] However, both India and
Pakistan failed to arrive at a truce agreement due to differences over interpretation of
the procedure for and the extent of demilitarisation. One sticking point was whether the
Azad Kashmiri army was to be disbanded during the truce stage or at the plebiscite
stage.[34]

In November 1948, although both the Indian and Pakistani governments agreed to hold
the plebiscite, the failure of Pakistan to withdraw its troops from Kashmir was a violation
of the agreed conditions for holding it and the process stalled.[35] Furthermore, the
Indian Government distanced itself from its previous commitment to hold a
plebiscite.[35] India then proposed that Pakistan withdraw all its troops first, calling it a
precondition for a plebiscite. Pakistan rejected the proposal on the grounds that the
Kashmiris would be unable to vote freely in the presence of the Indian army and in the
light of the friendship between Sheikh Abdullah and Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal
Nehru. However, Pakistan proposed simultaneous withdrawal of all troops followed by a
plebiscite under international aegis, which India rejected.[36] As a result Pakistani forces
did not unilaterally withdraw.[37] Over the next few years, the UN Security Council
passed four new resolutions, revising the terms of Resolution 47 to include a
synchronous withdrawal of both Indian and Pakistani troops from the region on the
recommendations of General Andrew McNaughton. To this end, UN arbitrators put
forward 11 different proposals for the demilitarisation of the region. All of these were
accepted by Pakistan, but rejected by the Indian government.[38] The resolutions were
passed by the United Nations Security Council under Chapter VI of the United Nations
Charter[39] and as such are considered non-binding with no mandatory enforceability,
as opposed to resolutions passed under Chapter VII.[40]

Sino-Indian War[edit]
Main article: Sino-Indian War
In 1962, troops from the People's Republic of China and India clashed in territory
claimed by both. China won a swift victory in the war, resulting in Chinese annexation of
the region they call Aksai Chin and which has continued since then. Another smaller
area, the Trans-Karakoram, was demarcated as the Line of Control (LOC) between China
and Pakistan, although some of the territory on the Chinese side is claimed by India to
be part of Kashmir. The line that separates India from China in this region is known as
the "Line of Actual Control".[41]

1965 and 1971 wars[edit]

Main articles: Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and Indo-Pakistani War of 1971
In 1965 and 1971, heavy fighting again broke out between India and Pakistan. The
Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 resulted in the defeat of Pakistan and the Pakistani military's
surrender in East Pakistan, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. The Simla Agreement,
signed in 1972 between India and Pakistan, allowed both countries to settle all issues by
peaceful means through mutual discussion within the framework of the UN Charter.

1989 popular insurgency and militancy[edit]

Main article: Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir
In the years since 1990, the Kashmiri Muslims and the Indian government have
conspired to abolish the complexities of Kashmiri civilization. The world it inhabited has
vanished: the state government and the political class, the rule of law, almost all the
Hindu inhabitants of the valley, alcohol, cinemas, cricket matches, picnics by moonlight
in the saffron fields, schools, universities, an independent press, tourists and banks. In
this reduction of civilian reality, the sights of Kashmir are redefined: not the lakes and
Mogul gardens, or the storied triumphs of Kashmiri agriculture, handicrafts and cookery,
but two entities that confront each other without intermediary: the mosque and the
army camp.
British journalist James Buchan[42]
In 1989, a widespread popular and armed insurgency[43][44] started in Kashmir. After
the 1987 state legislative assembly election, some of the results were disputed. This
resulted in the formation of militant wings and marked the beginning of the Mujahadeen
insurgency, which continues to this day.[45] India contends that the insurgency was
largely started by Afghan mujahadeen who entered the Kashmir valley following the end
of the Soviet-Afghan War.[46] Yasin Malik, a leader of one faction of the Jammu Kashmir
Liberation Front, was one of the Kashmiris to organise militancy in Kashmir, along with
Ashfaq Majid Wani and Farooq Ahmad Dar (alias Bitta Karatay). Since 1995, Malik has
renounced the use of violence and calls for strictly peaceful methods to resolve the
dispute. Malik developed differences with one of the senior leaders, Farooq Siddiqui
(alias Farooq Papa), for shunning demands for an independent Kashmir and trying to cut
a deal with the Indian Prime Minister. This resulted in a spilt in which Bitta Karatay,
Salim Nanhaji, and other senior comrades joined Farooq Papa.[47][48] Pakistan claims
these insurgents are Jammu and Kashmir citizens, and are rising up against the Indian
army as part of an independence movement. Amnesty International has accused security
forces in Indian-controlled Kashmir of exploiting the Public Safety Act that enables them
to "hold prisoners without trial". The group argues that the law, which allows security
forces to detain individuals for up to two years without presenting charges violates
prisoners' human rights.[49][50] In 2011, the state humans right commission said it had
evidence that 2,156 bodies had been buried in 40 graves over the last 20 years.[50] The
authorities deny such accusations. The security forces say the unidentified dead are
militants who may have originally come from outside India. They also say that many of
the missing people have crossed into Pakistan-administered Kashmir to engage in
militancy.[50] However, according to the state human rights commission, among the
identified bodies 574 were those of "disappeared locals", and according to Amnesty
International's annual human rights report (2012) it was sufficient for "belying the
security forces' claim that they were militants".[51]

India claims these insurgents are Islamic terrorist groups from Pakistan-administered
Kashmir and Afghanistan, fighting to make Jammu and Kashmir a part of
Pakistan.[50][52] They claim Pakistan supplies munitions to the terrorists and trains
them in Pakistan. India states that the terrorists have killed many citizens in Kashmir
and committed human rights violations whilst denying that their own armed forces are
responsible for human rights abuses. On a visit to Pakistan in 2006, current Chief
Minister of Kashmir Omar Abdullah remarked that foreign militants were engaged in
reckless killings and mayhem in the name of religion.[53] The Indian government has
said militancy is now on the decline.[when?][12]

The Pakistani government calls these insurgents "Kashmiri freedom fighters", and claims
that it provides them only moral and diplomatic support, although India[54] believes
they are Pakistan-supported terrorists from Pakistan Administered Kashmir. In October
2008, President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan called the Kashmir separatists "terrorists" in
an interview with The Wall Street Journal.[55] These comments sparked outrage
amongst many Kashmiris, some of whom defied a curfew imposed by the Indian army to
burn him in effigy.[56]

In 2008, pro-separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq told the Washington Post that there
has been a "purely indigenous, purely Kashmiri"[11] peaceful protest movement
alongside the insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir since 1989. The movement
was created for the same reason as the insurgency and began after the disputed election
of 1987. According to the United Nations, the Kashmiris have grievances with the Indian
government, specifically the Indian Military, which has committed human rights
violations, .[11][12][57]

1999 Conflict in Kargil[edit]

Location of conflict.
Main article: Kargil War
In mid-1999, insurgents and Pakistani soldiers from Pakistani Kashmir infiltrated Jammu
and Kashmir. During the winter season, Indian forces regularly move down to lower
altitudes, as severe climatic conditions makes it almost impossible for them to guard the
high peaks near the Line of Control. The insurgents took advantage of this and occupied
vacant mountain peaks in the Kargil range overlooking the highway in Indian Kashmir
that connects Srinagar and Leh. By blocking the highway, they could cut off the only link
between the Kashmir Valley and Ladakh. This resulted in a large-scale conflict between
the Indian and Pakistani armies.

Fears of the Kargil War turning into a nuclear war provoked the then-United States
President Bill Clinton to pressure Pakistan to retreat. The Pakistan Army withdrew their
remaining troops from the area, ending the conflict. India reclaimed control of the peaks,
which they now patrol and monitor all year long.

2000s Al-Qaeda involvement[edit]

Main article: Al-Qaeda
See also: Allegations of support system in Pakistan for Osama bin Laden
In a 'Letter to American People' written by Osama bin Laden in 2002, he stated that one
of the reasons he was fighting America was because of its support for India on the
Kashmir issue.[58][59] While on a trip to Delhi in 2002, US Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld suggested that Al-Qaeda was active in Kashmir, though he did not have any
hard evidence.[60][61] An investigation by a Christian Science Monitor reporter in 2002
claimed to have unearthed evidence that Al-Qaeda and its affiliates were prospering in
Pakistan-administered Kashmir with tacit approval of Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence agency (ISI).[62] In 2002, a team comprising Special Air Service and Delta
Force personnel was sent into Indian-administered Kashmir to hunt for Osama bin Laden
after reports that he was being sheltered by the Kashmiri militant group Harkat-ul-
Mujahideen.[63] US officials believed that Al-Qaeda was helping organise a campaign of
terror in Kashmir to provoke conflict between India and Pakistan. Their strategy was to
force Pakistan to move its troops to the border with India, thereby relieving pressure on
Al-Qaeda elements hiding in northwestern Pakistan. US intelligence analysts say Al-
Qaeda and Taliban operatives in Pakistan-administered Kashmir are helping terrorists
trained in Afghanistan to infiltrate Indian-administered Kashmir.[64] Fazlur Rehman
Khalil, the leader of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, signed al-Qaeda's 1998 declaration of
holy war, which called on Muslims to attack all Americans and their allies.[65] In 2006
Al-Qaeda claim they have established a wing in Kashmir, which worried the Indian
government.[66] Indian Army Lieutenant General H.S. Panag, GOC-in-C Northern
Command, told reporters that the army has ruled out the presence of Al-Qaeda in
Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. He said that there no evidence to verify media
reports of an Al-Qaeda presence in the state. He ruled out Al-Qaeda ties with the militant
groups in Kashmir including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. However, he
stated that they had information about Al Qaeda's strong ties with Lashkar-e-Taiba and
Jaish-e-Mohammed operations in Pakistan.[67] While on a visit to Pakistan in January
2010, US Defense secretary Robert Gates stated that Al-Qaeda was seeking to
destabilise the region and planning to provoke a nuclear war between India and
Pakistan.[68]

In June 2011, a US Drone strike killed Ilyas Kashmiri, chief of Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami,
a Kashmiri militant group associated with Al-Qaeda.[69][70] Kashmiri was described by
Bruce Riedel as a 'prominent' Al-Qaeda member,[71] while others described him as the
head of military operations for Al-Qaeda.[72] Waziristan had by then become the new
battlefield for Kashmiri militants fighting NATO in support of Al-Qaeda.[73] Ilyas
Kashmiri was charged by the US in a plot against Jyllands-Posten, the Danish newspaper
at the center of the Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons controversy.[74] In April 2012,
Farman Ali Shinwari a former member of Kashmiri separatist groups Harkat-ul-
Mujahideen and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami, was appointed chief of al-Qaeda in
Pakistan.[75]

Reasons behind the dispute[edit]

The Kashmir Conflict arose from the Partition of British India in 1947 into modern India
and Pakistan. Both countries subsequently made claims to Kashmir, based on the history
and religious affiliations of the Kashmiri people. The princely state of Jammu and
Kashmir, which lies strategically in the north-west of the subcontinent bordering
Afghanistan and China, was formerly ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh under the
paramountcy of British India. In geographical and legal terms, the Maharaja could have
joined either of the two new countries. Although urged by the Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten
of Burma, to determine the future of his state before the transfer of power took place,
Singh demurred. In October 1947, incursions by Pakistan took place leading to a war, as
a result of which the state of Jammu and Kashmir remains divided between India and
Pakistan.

Administered by Area Population % Muslim % Hindu % Buddhist % Other

India Kashmir valley ~4 million 95% 4%
Jammu ~3 million 30% 66% 4%
Ladakh ~0.25 million 46% 50% 3%
Pakistan Gilgit-Baltistan ~1 million 99%
Azad Kashmir ~2.6 million 100%
China Aksai Chin
Statistics from the BBC report "In Depth" *There are roughly 1.5 million refugees from
Indian-administered Kashmir in Pakistan administered Kashmir and Pakistan UNHCR
A minimum of 506,000 people in the Indian Administered Kashmir valley are internally
displaced due to militancy in Kashmir about half of who are Hindu pandits CIA
Muslims form the majority in the Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar, and Doda districts of the
Jammu region. Shia Muslims make up the majority in the Kargil district in the Ladakh
region.
India does not accept the two-nation theory and considers that Kashmir, despite being a
Muslim-majority state, is in many ways an "integral part" of secular India.[76] It is also
worth noting that India has a Muslim population close to 177 Million very close to
Pakistan which has a Muslim population of 178 Million.[28] In fact, as per 2001 Census
Muslim population in the State of Uttar Pradesh (in India) alone was around 30 million
more than Jammu & Kashmir which is at around 6 million.[77]
Two-thirds of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, comprising Jammu, the
Kashmir Valley, and the sparsely populated Buddhist area of Ladakh are controlled by
India while one-third is administered by Pakistan. The latter includes a narrow strip of
land called Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas, comprising the Gilgit Agency,
Baltistan, and the former kingdoms of Hunza and Nagar. Attempts to resolve the dispute
through political discussions have been unsuccessful. In September 1965, war again
broke out between Pakistan and India. The United Nations called for another cease-fire,
and peace was restored following the Tashkent Declaration in 1966, by which both
nations returned to their original positions along the demarcated line. After the 1971 war
and the creation of independent Bangladesh under the terms of the 1972 Simla
Agreement between Prime Minister Indira Gandhi of India and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto of
Pakistan, it was agreed that neither country would seek to alter the cease-fire line in
Kashmir, which was renamed as the Line of Control, "unilaterally, irrespective of mutual
differences and legal interpretations".

Numerous violations of the Line of Control have occurred, including incursions by

insurgents and Pakistani armed forces at Kargil leading to the Kargil war. There have
also been sporadic clashes on the Siachen Glacier, where the Line of Control is not
demarcated and both countries maintain forces at altitudes rising to 20,000 ft (6,100
m), with the Indian forces serving at higher altitudes.

Indian view[edit]

Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession in October 1947 under which he
acceded the State of Jammu and Kashmir to the Union of India.
India has officially stated that it believes that Kashmir to be an integral part of India,
though the then Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, stated after the 2010
Kashmir Unrest that his government was willing to grant autonomy to the region within
the purview of Indian constitution if there was consensus[by whom?] on this issue.[78]
The Indian viewpoint is succinctly summarised by Ministry of External affairs,
Government of India[79][80]

India holds that the Instrument of Accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to the
Union of India, signed by Maharaja Hari Singh (erstwhile ruler of the State) on 25
October 1947[81][82] and executed on 27 October 1947[82] between the ruler of
Kashmir and the Governor General of India was a legal act and completely valid in terms
of the Government of India Act (1935), Indian Independence Act (1947) as well as under
international law and as such was total and irrevocable.[80]
The Constituent assembly of Jammu and Kashmir had unanimously ratified the
Maharaja's Instrument of Accession to India and adopted a constitution for the state that
called for a perpetual merger of Jammu and Kashmir with the Union of India. India
claims that the constituent assembly was a representative one, and that its views were
those of the Kashmiri people at the time.[83][84]
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1172 tacitly accepts India's stand regarding
all outstanding issues between India and Pakistan and urges the need to resolve the
dispute through mutual dialogue without the need for a plebiscite.[85]
United Nations Security Council Resolution 47 cannot be implemented since Pakistan
failed to withdraw its forces from Kashmir, which was the first step in implementing the
resolution.[37] India is also of the view that Resolution 47 is obsolete, since the
geography and demographics of the region have permanently altered since it
adoption.[86] The resolution was passed by United Nations Security Council under
Chapter VI of the United Nations Charter and as such is non-binding with no mandatory
enforceability, as opposed to resolutions passed under Chapter VII.[39][40]
India does not accept the two-nation theory that forms the basis of Pakistan's claims and
considers that Kashmir, despite being a Muslim-majority state, is in many ways an
"integral part" of secular India.[76]
The state of Jammu and Kashmir was provided with significant autonomy under Article
370 of the Constitution of India.[87]
All differences between India and Pakistan, including Kashmir, need to be settled
through bilateral negotiations as agreed to by the two countries under the Simla
Agreement signed on 2 July 1972.[88]
Additional Indian viewpoints regarding the broader debate over the Kashmir conflict
include

In a diverse country like India, disaffection and discontent are not uncommon. Indian
democracy has the necessary resilience to accommodate genuine grievances within the
framework of India's sovereignty, unity, and integrity. The Government of India has
expressed its willingness to accommodate the legitimate political demands of the people
of the state of Kashmir.[79]
Insurgency and terrorism in Kashmir is deliberately fuelled by Pakistan to create
instability in the region.[89] The Government of India has repeatedly accused Pakistan
of waging a proxy war in Kashmir by providing weapons and financial assistance to
terrorist groups in the region.[90][91][92][93]
Pakistan is trying to raise anti-India sentiment among the people of Kashmir by
spreading false propaganda against India.[94] According to the state government of
Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistani radio and television channels deliberately spread "hate
and venom" against India to alter Kashmiri opinion.[95]
India has asked the United Nations not to leave unchallenged or unaddressed the claims
of moral, political, and diplomatic support for terrorism, which were clearly in
contravention of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1373. This is a Chapter VII
resolution that makes it mandatory for member states to not provide active or passive
support to terrorist organisations.[96][97] Specifically, it has pointed out that the
Pakistani government continues to support various terrorist organisations, such as Jaish-
e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba, in direct violation of this resolution.[98]
India points out reports by human rights organisations condemning Pakistan for the lack
of civic liberties in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.[94][99] According to India, most
regions of Pakistani Kashmir, especially Northern Areas, continue to suffer from lack of
political recognition, economic development, and basic fundamental rights.[100]
Karan Singh, the son of the last ruler of the princely state of Kashmir and Jammu, has
said that the Instrument of Accession signed by his father was the same as signed by
other states. He opined that Kashmir was therefore a part of India, and that its special
status granted by Article 370 of the Indian Constitution stemmed from the fact that it
had its own constitution.[101]
In 2008, the death toll from the last 20 years was estimated by Indian authorities to be
over 47,000.[102]

Pakistani view[edit]

Map of Kashmir as drawn by the Government of Pakistan

Pakistan maintains that Kashmir is the "jugular vein of Pakistan"[103] and a currently
disputed territory whose final status must be determined by the people of Kashmir.
Pakistan's claims to the disputed region are based on the rejection of Indian claims to
Kashmir, namely the Instrument of Accession. Pakistan insists that the Maharaja was not
a popular leader, and was regarded as a tyrant by most Kashmiris. Pakistan maintains
that the Maharaja used brute force to suppress the population.[104]

Pakistan claims that Indian forces were in Kashmir before the Instrument of Accession
was signed with India, and that therefore Indian troops were in Kashmir in violation of
the Standstill Agreement, which was designed to maintain the status quo in Kashmir
(although India was not signatory to the Agreement, which was signed between Pakistan
and the Hindu ruler of Jammu and Kashmir).[105][106]

From 1990 to 1999, some organisations reported that the Indian Armed Forces, its
paramilitary groups, and counter-insurgent militias were responsible for the deaths of
4,501 Kashmiri civilians. During the same period, there were records of 4,242 women
between the ages of 770 being raped.[107][108] Similar allegations were also made by
some human rights organisations.[109]

In short, Pakistan holds that

The popular Kashmiri insurgency demonstrates that the Kashmiri people no longer wish
to remain within India. Pakistan suggests that this means that Kashmir either wants to
be with Pakistan or independent.[110]
According to the two-nation theory, one of the theories that is cited for the partition that
created India and Pakistan, Kashmir should have been with Pakistan, because it has a
Muslim majority.
India has shown disregard for the resolutions of the UN Security Council and the United
Nations Commission in India and Pakistan by failing to hold a plebiscite to determine the
future allegiance of the state.[111]
Pakistan was of the view that the Maharaja of Kashmir had no right to call in the Indian
Army, because it held that the Maharaja of Kashmir was not a hereditary ruler and was
merely a British appointee, after the British defeated Ranjit Singh who ruled the area
before the British conquest.[112]
Pakistan has noted the widespread use of extrajudicial killings in Indian-administered
Kashmir carried out by Indian security forces while claiming they were caught up in
encounters with militants. These encounters are commonplace in Indian-administered
Kashmir. The encounters go largely uninvestigated by the authorities, and the
perpetrators are spared criminal prosecution.[113][114]
Human rights organisations have strongly condemned Indian troops for widespread rape
and murder of innocent civilians while accusing these civilians of being
militants.[115][116][117]

The Chenab formula was a compromise proposed in the 1960s, in which the Kashmir
valley and other Muslim-dominated areas north of the Chenab river would go to
Pakistan, and Jammu and other Hindu-dominated regions would go to India.[118]
Former Pakistani president General Pervez Musharraf on 16 October 2014 said that
Pakistan needs to incite those fighting in Kashmir,[119][120]We have source (in
Kashmir) besides the (Pakistan) armyPeople in Kashmir are fighting against (India).
We just need to incite them, Musharraf told a TV channel.[119][120]

A survey carried out across both Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir by
London-based thinktank Chatham House, its author claims 'is the first ever of its kind',
shows that only 2% of the respondents on the Indian side favour joining Pakistan.[121]

Chinese view[edit]
See also: Origins of the Sino-Indian border dispute
China states that Aksai Chin is an integral part of China and does not recognise the
inclusion of Aksai Chin as part of the Kashmir region.[citation needed]

China did not accept the boundaries of the princely state of Kashmir and Jammu, north
of Aksai Chin and the Karakoram as proposed by the British.[31]
China settled its border disputes with Pakistan under the 1963 Trans Karakoram Tract
with the provision that the settlement was subject to the final solution of the Kashmir
dispute.[122]
Cross-border troubles[edit]
See also: Line of Control and Siachen Conflict
The border and the Line of Control separating Indian and Pakistani Kashmir passes
through some exceptionally difficult terrain. The world's highest battleground, the
Siachen Glacier, is a part of this difficult-to-man boundary. Even with 200,000 military
personnel,[123] India maintains that it is infeasible to place enough men to guard all
sections of the border throughout the various seasons of the year. Pakistan has indirectly
acquiesced its role in failing to prevent "cross-border terrorism" when it agreed to curb
such activities[124] after intense pressure from the Bush administration in mid-2002.

The Government of Pakistan has repeatedly claimed that by constructing a fence along
the line of control, India is violating the Shimla Accord. India claims the construction of
the fence has helped decrease armed infiltration into Indian-administered Kashmir.

In 2002, Pakistani President and Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf promised to
check infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir.[citation needed]

Water dispute[edit]
Another reason for the dispute over Kashmir is water. Kashmir is the source of many
rivers and tributaries in the Indus River basin. This basin is divided between Pakistan,
which has about 60 percent of the catchment area, India with about 20 percent,
Afghanistan with 5 percent and around 15 percent in China (Tibet autonomous region).
The river tributaries are the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, which primarily flow into
Pakistan, while other branchesthe Ravi, Beas, and the Sutlejirrigate northern India.

The Indus is a river system that sustains communities in India and Pakistan. Both have
extensively dammed the Indus River for irrigation of their crops and hydro-electricity
systems. In arbitrating the conflict in 1947, Sir Cyril Radcliffe, decided to demarcate the
territories as he was unable to give to one or the other the control over the river as it
was a main economic resource for both areas. The Line of Control (LoC) was recognised
as an international border establishing that India would have control over the upper
riparian and Pakistan over the lower riparian of the Indus and its tributaries. Despite
appearing to be separate issues, the Kashmir dispute and the dispute over the water
control are in reality related and the fight over the water remains one of the main
problems in establishing good relations between the two countries.

In 1948, Eugene Black, then president of the World Bank, offered his services to solve
the tension over water control. In the early days of independence, the fact that India
was able to shut off the Central Bari Doab Canals at the time of the sowing season,
causing significant damage to Pakistan's crops. Nevertheless, military and political
clashes over Kashmir in the early years of independence appear to have been more
about ideology and sovereignty rather than over the sharing of water resources.
However, the minister of Pakistan has stated the opposite.[125]
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed by both countries in September 1960, giving
exclusive rights over the three western rivers of the Indus river system (Jhelum, Chenab
and Indus) to Pakistan, and over the three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Ravi and Beas) to
India, as long as this does not reduce or delay the supply to Pakistan. India therefore
maintains that they are not willing to break the established regulations and they see no
more problems with this issue.

Pakistan's relation with militants[edit]

India has furnished documentary evidence to the United Nations that Pakistan supports
Kashmiri militants, leading to a ban on some terrorist organisations, which Pakistan has
yet to enforce.[citation needed] Former President of Pakistan and the ex-chief of the
Pakistan military Pervez Musharraf, stated in an interview in London, that the Pakistani
government indeed helped to form underground militant groups and "turned a blind eye"
towards their existence.[126]

According to former Indian Prime-minister Manmohan Singh, one of the main reasons
behind the conflict was Pakistan's "terror-induced coercion". He further stated at a Joint
Press Conference with United States President Barack Obama in New Delhi that India is
not afraid of resolving all the issues with Pakistan including that of Kashmir "but it is our
request that you cannot simultaneously be talking and at the same time the terror
machine is as active as ever before. Once Pakistan moves away from this terror-induced
coercion, we will be very happy to engage productively with Pakistan to resolve all
outstanding issues."[127]

In 2009, the President of Pakistan Asif Zardari asserted at a conference in Islamabad

that Pakistan had indeed created Islamic militant groups as a strategic tool for use in its
geostrategic agenda and "to attack Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir".[128] Former
President of Pakistan and the ex-chief of the Pakistan military Pervez Musharraf also
stated in an interview that Pakistani government helped to form underground militant
groups to fight against Indian troops in Jammu and Kashmir and "turned a blind eye"
towards their existence because it wanted to force India to enter negotiations.[126] The
British Government have formally accepted that there is a clear connection between
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and three major militant outfits operating in
Jammu and Kashmir, Lashkar-e-Tayiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-
Mujahideen.[129][130] The militants are provided with "weapons, training, advice and
planning assistance" in Punjab and Kashmir by the ISI which is "coordinating the
shipment of arms from the Pakistani side of Kashmir to the Indian side, where Muslim
insurgents are waging a protracted war".[131][132]

Throughout the 1990s, the ISI maintained its relationship with extremist networks and
militants that it had established during the Afghan war to utilise in its campaign against
Indian forces in Kashmir.[133] Joint Intelligence/North (JIN) has been accused of
conducting operations in Jammu and Kashmir and also Afghanistan.[134] The Joint
Signal Intelligence Bureau (JSIB) provide communications support to groups in
Kashmir.[134] According to Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, both former members
of the National Security Council, the ISI acted as a "kind of terrorist conveyor belt"
radicalising young men in the Madrassas of Pakistan and delivering them to training
camps affiliated with or run by Al-Qaeda and from there moving them into Jammu and
Kashmir to launch attacks.[135]

Reportedly, about Rs. 24 million are paid out per month by the ISI to fund its activities
in Jammu and Kashmir.[136] Pro-Pakistani groups were reportedly favoured over other
militant groups.[136] Creation of six militant groups in Kashmir, which included Lashkar-
e-Taiba (LeT), was aided by the ISI.[137][138] According to American Intelligence
officials, ISI is still providing protection and help to LeT.[138] The Pakistan Army and ISI
also LeT volunteers to surreptitiously penetrate from Pakistan Administrated Kashmir to
Jammu and Kashmir.

Kashmir Issue and Peace in Region

Sovereignty is a blessing of Almighty Allah to humankind; freedom by all means either

refers to human beings or to other creatures does hold its magnitude in all aspects. It
has widely been manifested by the human chronology that human beings have ever
been seeking freedom, thus, the notion bands no dilemma in it as liberty stands to be
the at heart right to all.

Kashmir stated to be the piece of heaven, the place of delicacy and harmony has been
victimized by the Indian subjugation and unkindness. Soon after the inception of both
Pakistan and India in 1947 a series of mystification got spiked between these two sister
countries who themselves had been in colonial domination, A major focus in Pakistan's
foreign policy is the continuing quest for security against India, its large, more powerful,
and generally hostile neighbor. Pakistan was created despite the opposition of the most
powerful political party in India. Though it is 1965, 1971 Kargil or sometimes else both
countries have been a threat to their peace, solidarity and self-determination, India's
tyranny and autocracy resulted thousands of human life losses, wide ranging mass
destruction and violation of Human Rights, even Indian agitation over Kashmir issues to
as high as she declined all UN charter provisions, UN declaration to Human Rights and
bilateral talks for apt and ready resolution of Kashmir issue. And yet stays vindictive and
holds its illegitimate position over Kashmir. Nuclear occupation further caused a peril not
only for both neighbor countries but also for South Asia, even for all the world countries
and urged them at least now to seek out a peace full resolution of issue. I am afraid if
the issue is not set on now would certainly tend an irreparable and unforgettable
Devastation to entire world communities and may recall harsh episodes of first and
Second World War. It is mandatory for both Pakistan and India to let the Kashmiries to
make their mind up for their fate by their own volition by a simple plebiscite by deciding
upon whether to live with Pakistan or India, How secure is the peace process between
India and Pakistan? Will both sides finally resolve the dispute or will militant attacks
impede the process? Do they live in Indian- or Pakistani-administered Kashmir? This is
an alarming scenario and every one have had its own perception onto. Other then laid up
retrospective events; Kargil has added a new chapter to the Kashmiri 52 year's old
struggle for emancipation from the suppressive and brutal Indian rule. They have
demonstrated their ability to force a decision on Kashmir. Any form of status quo is not
acceptable to them any more. It is the opinion of neutral experts at home and abroad
that the Kashmir dispute cannot be forced back into cold storage again in view of the
determination to fight and die as shown by a few hundred Kashmiris on the outskirts of
Kargil under the shadow of a larger conflict. It should now be the concern of the World
community to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute under a democratic process, of the
will of the people of Kashmir. No one have the right to rule over the freewill and liberty
of any nation irrespective of its religion, creed and race. I must conclude my views with
the remarks that Kashmir issue should instantly be determined in accordance with the
commandments of human rights, the desires of Kashmiries and UN human Rights
declaration.

In order to find an early and just solution to the 50-year old Jammu and Kashmir
dispute, Pakistan has welcomed offers of good offices and third-party mediation. It has
encouraged the international community to play an active role and facilitate the peaceful
settlement of disputes between Pakistan and India.
While Pakistan is committed to a peaceful settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute,
adequate measures have been taken to safeguard the country's territorial integrity and
national sovereignty.

I believe onto Pakistan's continuation to extend full political, diplomatic and moral
support to the legitimate Kashmiri struggle for their right to self-determination as
enshrined in the relevant United Nations resolutions. In the context of the bilateral
dialogue, it calls on India to translate its commitments into reality. At the same time, it
will encourage the international community to support and supplement our efforts to
establish lasting peace and stability in South Asia on the basis of equitable resolution of
all disputes between the two countries, in particular the core issue of Jammu and
Kashmir.

As Holy Quran has affirmed that "IF YOU WANT PEACE, KEEP YOUR HORSES READY"
India had no option but to assume an opulent and ever lasting solution of Kashmir issue,
if not, the possibility of warfare would take place. We hope that India will stick together
us in our efforts to bring durable peace to the region for the common benefit of all our
people. For half a century our region has remained mired in tensions and conflicts. It is
our sincere desire to see South Asia enter the next millennium at peace with itself. I
must be absolutely clear with reference to upholding human rights high.

Globalization
Outline:
Introduction.
Historical background of the concept.
Tools of globalization.
Different levels or aspects of globalization.
Negatives of globalization
Positives of globalization.
Suggestions.
Conclusion.

Essay on globalization

Globalization is an irreversible and irresistible phenomenon. It is very famous all over

the world. While dilating on the subject, it is important to note that globalization not only
affects us as a citizen but also as producer-consumer in the global economy.
In the modern contemporary world, intense debate revolves around the term
globalization, which is even today a continuous issue.
Before exploring the concept, we should take a look over the different definitions of the
phenomenon. Globalization can be defined as closely interrelated integration of market
in terms of goods, services and capital. It can also be defined as gradual erosion of
boundaries between states through increased economic interdependence and
interlinkages can be termed as globalization.
From the above mentioned definitions, we can assume that globalization is the mutual
sharing of goods, services and capital between or among states. It is also gradually
making states closer and integrated. There are different theories about the beginning of
the concept of globalization.
Some are of the view that it started from the mid of 20th century with woods conference
1944. While the others are of the view that this concept was properly started with the
establishment of W.T.O in 1995. Whatever the reality is, it is true that the pace of
globalization was accelerated with World trading Organization. the main agenda of this
organization was to end border and fasten the trade between the states.
World bank also came in this battle of evolution of globalization and identifies three
waves of globalization focusing on economic integration.
1. First wave of globalization from 1854 to 1914.
2. Second wave of globalization from 1945 to 1973.
3. Third wave of globalization from 1973 till today.
In the post 1973 era, the cold war subsided and there was a quantum leap forward in
the economic integration. The free market economy became the guiding principal and
global economy spread to the larger part of the world.
There is a difference of opinion among people for beginning of the concept but nobody
can deny its importance in the modern contemporary world. From now to onward, we
will examine how trade, growth and poverty are interlinked and how best the benefits of
globalization acquired to ameliorate threat to humanity. Presumably, solutions to such
problems would then avert a backlash against globalization.
Tools of globalization:
There are two schools of thoughts about conjecture of globalization. First are of the view
that globalization is a blessing. It is the tool of peace and prosperity. It is the harbinger
of progress and prosperity. It is indispensible process in the modern contemporary
world. We cannot deny its importance in our daily life from kitchen utensils to industrial
machinery. One may approve or disapprove; the world is so prepared that it is
unavoidable.
Others are of the view that globalization is a tool of frustration. It is solely in the benefit
of rich and progress and progressive. They are also of the view that globalization is a
recipe of neu-colonialism. With the emergence of world trade organization and end of
cold war this concept evolved. Last but not the least they are of the view that it is a
theory of indirect occupation.
The third tool of globalization is telecommunication. Telecom has made things possible.
There was a time when kings took Six months to meet the counter part or a sovereign of
another state, now communication means made it so easy that an ordinary human can
talk to a person who is sitting hundreds and thousands miles away on a very cheap
expense. They are always interconnected. Physical distances have been made irrelevant
through these communication means. It is a first mean to exchange ideas. For example
face book, one can share his ideas and in no time he will get the feedback from friends
or people who are going to be affected by his idea. It is a quick way to engage into
trade. Furthermore, it is also helping people to involve in political discourses. The people
today are well aware of the governmental policies.
It is also important to note that there are more than one billion people who are the
telephone subscribers. During the decades of 1990s the number of people using
telephone were doubled after every 20 months. So we can see that how quickly people
of this contemporary world are being use to of it.
Moreover electronic media is another tool of globalization. We can say that media is the
other way of squeezing the world into one whole. It has become the fastest way of
interrelating the world. Incident happening in one part of the world can be seen in other
parts of the globe through it very quickly. It is the strongest mean of knowing and
believing whats happening. It is also a tool of propaganda. In the modern world, people
and states use it for their own self interest and secure support of others in their conduct.
We have a recent example of Iraq war. Media played an important role in this particular
war. The U.S Government propagated on media that Saddam has nuclear weapons
which is the biggest threat to America himself and the whole world. Despite of the fact
that 152 countries opposed him in United Nations, America attacked on Iraq under the
article 52 (self defense) of the United Nations. Then again it is also important to note
that it was the same media who reported that there were no nuclear weapons found in
Iraq. So it has performed both the roles.
The story not ends here, another important tool of globalization is internet. It is the
internet which quickly and really summarized the world into a small box. Whatever you
need, whatever u wish for, you can have it through internet. There are 200 million
people who are using computer in their daily life and 95% of them are using personal
computer. One out of every 12 is using internet. It has something for everyone. The
main purposes for using internet are;
To get information.
To have access to news.
To deal in business.
To follow the modern styles.
To have recreation or entertainment.
It is due to this tool of globalization that one can have access to all the things he wanted
through s single click. So internet is very important tool of globalization.
Moving forward, the means of transportation are also important tools of globalization. It
is a blessing for everyone in this modern contemporary world as it helps in movement of
goods, services and capital from one place to another. It made possible for one person
to deal with another in cool and good manners. It really, enables the modern man to
tackle the problems efficiently. The voyages which were of months, now summarized to
hours. Aero plane has made it possible to travel from one nook of the world to the other
corner in hours. Means of transportation are really helping people in development and
progress. Trade between sates became the hall mark of the globalization. It has helped
the world to squeeze. From the above discussion we came to know that how effectively
and efficiently the tools of communication are playing their part. It is also important to
note that what are the aspects of our daily human life which are to be directly or
indirectly affected by globalization.
Different levels or aspects of globalization:
The political globalization is first that will be discussed over here. When we come across
political globalization, three things quickly come in our mind.
Political organization.
International law.
Human rights.
Political organization was started from the emergence of United Nation organization in
1945. It was a very noble step towards humanity. Earlier there was another organization
by the name of league of nations. It emerged right after the end of 1st World War in
1919. The main difference between these two organizations was that the membership of
League of nations was partial. The portfolio was almost the same. The emergence of
United Nations Organization was a very noble step towards integrity of mankind. Under
the article 2 of the UNO quotes all states are equal. It is also very important to note
that the difference between the 1st World War and 2nd World War was of 20 years only
and because of the UNO the 3rd World War prevented a couple of times in the history.
The incidents of U2 and Cuban Missile Crises certainly stood the both super powers in
front of each other. It was UNO who handled the affairs very efficiently. Any insurgency
can be stopped through the platform of UNO. There is no blinking fact that the theory
and practice of UNO are at daggers drawn with each other.
Second thing which comes in political organization is International Law. It was broadly
implemented through international court of justice (ICJ). International law symbolizes
the world as globe. It prevents strong from doing any unlawful act which can harm the
inferior. The international court of justice also warns the country to not do that again.
International law is a very significant achievement of the world. All the issues between
the countries can be settled down here relating to war prisoners, territorial issues,
resources issues of neighbor/peripheral countries. International law shows world as a
single entity governed by a single law, although there is a clash among theory and
practice.
Thirdly, human rights are no more a personal issue. It is a universal problem. Earlier
human rights were not a global concern. No other state was allowed to interfere in these
matters of any other state. This statement is also written in the article 2 of the UNO.
Then in 1990s, a rule was passed by UNO that if there is a violation of human rights in
any part of the world the whole world or the UNO will stand against it. Furthermore it is
also mentioned that culprit will be treated strictly.
The aspects of globalization regarding economy are also important. The economical
globalization is as important as any other. Its roots can be traced from 1944 with the
emergence of I.F.I. World trading Organization was formed in 1955 and later on it
transformed into GATT (general agreement on trade and tariff). The main agenda of
W.T.O. was to make border irrelevant. The second main concern of this organization was
to promote free movement of goods, services and capital. Another point of its concern is
the free movement of labour through elimination of trade barriers which include tariffs,
quotas and sub subsidies. World Trade Organization is working on same agenda. It
augmented the magnitude of the trade between two countries. By its performance and
effectiveness we can assume that it is the order of the day. Every state is
interdependent on the other. This interdependence becomes the general norm of
international politics.
State welfare and development are interrelated very closely and W.T.O. paved the way
for trade instead of aid. There are some other institutions like I.M.F who are playing a
pivotal role for globalization. These international organizations give debts to the needy
countries for their betterment and prosperity.
In addition to this, the financial globalization is also an important aspect. It is the first
layer of mutual borrowing. It is the hallmark of the contemporary world. Every country
of the world is in some ways borrower and lender in the other way. This phenomenon
creates the relationship of mutual borrowing among the states. We can take the example
of U.S.A and China relations; it is a fact that United States of America is the largest
borrower of China.
There is a term used in this concept named mutual friction. Dollar ($) is the Americas
national currency. It assumed the role of international currency. Wherever we are in the
world and whatever we want to buy, we shall see two price tags on that particular thing.
One will be in local currency and the other will be in Dollars. All the international treaties
are signed under this currency. There are also some other financial institutions, like
Asian Development Bank and European union, who are playing their part of act in their
areas of jurisdiction and around the world.
Cultural globalization is also a highlighting level of globalization. Every area of the world
has its own cultural values. Through the tools of globalization e.g. media, internet, the
cultural globalization is also on the rise in the modern world. McDonalds, KFC and Pizza
hut are not the parts of our culture. Foods, fads and clothing patterns are parts of all
cultures. The amalgamation of cultures in the modern contemporary world is defined as
acculturation. When two cultures meet with each other and a new culture comes into
existence, which is called as acculturation.
This phenomenon of acculturation can only be developed when there is a mutual
interaction between two cultures.
Previously it was done by migration. People migrate from one place to another in search
of food, shelter or better life style. In ancient times, there was no exposure to superior
or inferior culture due to the lack of interaction and transportation means. In todays our
life no culture can remain in isolation. We can say that due to acculturation, a new global
culture is taking place.
Environmental problems are no more a personal issue. Different pollutions are no more
an indigenous or local problem .its a worldwide phenomenon. The question is why is it a
global problem? And the answer is that emission of carbon from one state would damage
the atmosphere and the whole world might bear ones wrong doing.
In this regard a protocol had been signed by the name of Kyoto protocol among all the
big countries except United States of America whose carbon emission is the largest in
the world.
America 25% carbon emission. ( check statistics)
China 12.5% carbon emission. (check statistics please)
The third number is of India. There is no use of such protocol if the American
government is not willing to be part of it.
Another important aspect of globalization is global migration. The global organizations
promote free movement of labour and free movement of people across the borders.
From 1998-2002, every year 20 million refugee people qualified for and receive UNOs
aid. For example, if war occurs in any area it will triggers the mass migration of people.
As happened in Afghan war. About four million Afghani people migrated to Pakistan.
Different states relax their immigration rules for their own problems. Like lack of skilled
professional, they promote the migration of people as they are facing the problem of
aging. By fore seeing human resource deficit, they have relaxed immigration rules.
As we are discussing the aspects of globalization the next aspect is globalization of
health. It has two layers. Firstly, there is a general dissemination of awareness
campaigns. Under W.H.O the world was declared as small pox free in 1986. After that
a vigorous campaign had been launched against Polio. Presently the campaign against
HIV AIDs is on its peak which is funded by W.H.O.
The second layer is positive as well as negative aspect of it. Like AIDs, it was confined to
to a specific area of the world. Now it spread all over the world. Same is the case with
Swine Flu, bird Flu and narcotics. Presently 95% of the opium is cultivated in
Afghanistan. Earlier the area of Golden Triangle was on top of its cultivation.
The last but not the least is educational globalization. The main factors which are
involved in this globalization are:
Internet.
Visa relaxation for students.
Scholarships.
Internet as discussed earlier is a very important factor in every student of the world. It is
through internet that one can find the people of likewise. Through internet one can have
essay on any topic or phrase. Secondly the visa relaxation for students also making it a
strong factor of globalization.
Although the concept of globalization is famous all over the world, like all the other
things this concept also has some merits and demerits. We will discuss negatives of
globalization first.
Negatives of globalization:
Negatives of globalization:
There is a famous saying money gets money The first point in this discipline is that it
aims at making rich the richer and poor the poorer because of its policies, it is very
much in the habit of profiting the rich. The concept of free movement of services, labour
and capital with the end of trade barriers (tariffs and subsidies) if these barriers removed
from between and let these big multi-national companies and others to fight with the
local industry, they will eat these small companies.
Globalization basically creates discrimination between the poor and the rich which is a
big flaw of this concept.
Another demerit of globalization is that it breeds credit based economies. The first
world countries intentionally do not allow the deficit countries to stand on their feet. The
third world countries are unable to run their economies by their own, so they have to
open their palm in front of big crocodiles. These developed countries and organizations
string conditions with that debt and dont let the smaller countries to utilize their own
resources and stand on their feet.
Prevalence of global culture means dominance of Western culture:- the West have
means to promote their culture and traditions. Modern media and entertainment sources
are totally influenced by the West. The younger generation fantasizes the west and is
also playing totally in the hands of western culture. We do not have those tools to
promote our culture and traditions. It is also important to note that Eastern and Western
cultures stands for Islamic and the rest of the world. The Muslims are lacking the
modern sources of interaction to the other world so globalization is totally in the lap of
Western culture.
It is also important to note that it is eroding the role of nation state fastly. The concept
of nation state is very important in the existence of a state. The concept of global village
is eroding this nation state concept.
International relations of politics mean new-imperialism. The first world countries
involve themselves in the internal affairs of the unstable countries and uses money to
have the people of their own in the government. By this way, they become able to use
that country for their own self interest and exploit these countries. The politicians of
third world countries are not able to develop good plans for their prosperity and
progress. So the developed countries and MNCs give them aid with some conditions and
in that way they control the whole country.
International law is a week law for rich and strong tool against poor. There are many
examples in support of this argument. We have some in near past too. The Iraq war and
to some extent the case of R. Davis. Although he was released after the settlement with
the victim family. But there are some issues on which he can hold behind bars. The
Israeli brutality against the unarmed Palestinians. It is also important to note that since
1991 America have used his right of veto 14 times from which 11 times he vetoed
actions against Israel. International law proceeds with international court of justice and if
someone goes in ICJ against any other. It has to take permission from the accused
country for preceding the case. This makes it week and ill working law.
The governments respond more to the MNCs than to the interest of their own people.
Positives of globalization:-
The merits of globalization are as follows:-
The first important merit of globalization is that it is a blessing of comparative
adventure and interdependence. The famous saying of Aristotle man is a social animal
is true even today. Every state is interdependent and no state can live in isolation.
History witnessing the fact that if anyone tried to live in isolation, he faced great
difficulties in response. We have the examples of Sudan, South Korea.
The next thing which we discuss in the merits of it is promotion of trade instead of aid.
Now the states are giving preference to trade and helping other regional and worldwide
economies to stand on their feet. The aid system has certain ambiguities with it as we
discussed in the demerits. Instead of being burden to the world, every state introducing
free market systems.
The next blessing of globalization is that it is the era of franimies giving birth to peace.
We can quote the example of United States of America and People Republic China. They
are the biggest rivals in current scenario. Yet, America is the biggest lender of China.
Although they have tussles but they will not fight with each other
Globalization also helps us in creating harmony among different cultures. There is
nothing which the other world does not know about a specific culture. Every country has
institutions to read about the other cultures. Course of Central Asian countries in G. C.
University. And department of regional studies in American leading universities is the
perfect examples of it. It helps us to come to know the cultures of different areas of the
world.
Furthermore it is globalization which brings people very close to each other. The
concept of specific language and culture for specific region is emitting from the map of
the world. The harmony among the cultures is possible with the role of globalization
which consequently results into peace.
It is not ended over here, the concept of globalization also helping us in recognizing
the human rights. Earlier it was the sole responsibility of the state to ensure the rights of
people and no one was allowed to interfere. Every state must facilitate its citizens with
basic rights. It was announced by the UNO that there will be no boundary for human
rights. Every child who comes in this world must enjoy all the rights
Another positive of globalization which cannot be neglected is that it is always a
blessing for consumer. The competitors will lose their profit margin for attracting more
and more consumer and in this way the consumer not only has lot more choices but the
quality goods too. Whatever the multi nationals do, it is always a blessing for the
consumer. In this way it proves to be the biggest merit of globalization for a common
man. With the decrease in prices of the goods and utensils, the consumer will be able to
have more on cheaper price.
On the other hands it is important to note that it is bound to succeed. It is directly linked
with capitalism. Capitalism is the only system prevailing in the contemporary world. We
have examples in the shape of European Union; shanghai cooperation organization,
SAARC, and some other regional unions are proves of its success.
The story not ends here; globalization is maximizing the wealth of the world. We are
witnessing the fact that when a multi-national company goes in a region, it creates an
opportunity of employment. It gives financial support for the betterment of roads and
transportation. Sudan is the case study in this context. The oil, gold and gas reservoirs
were giving no benefit to the people of Sudan. The multi-national companies went over
there. They explored these reservoirs and now the government is receiving taxes. The
people are getting more jobs, the economy is growing. It can be said that it changed the
life style of the people of Sudan.
The last but not the least positive point of globalization is free movement of capital. It
allows people throughout the world to run their business wherever they want. The free
movement of capital is bridging gaps between the countries.
Suggestions:-
Investing in human capital. Strategies for promoting economic growth and poverty
reduction should be an important part of every countrys economic policy. There is a
need to encourage investment through economic liberalization, privatization and reduced
trade barriers. There is a need to invest in human capital, such as health and education
and creating effective institutions of governance and eradicate corruption.
Democracy and economic growth are interlinked with each other. Economic growth can
only be possible if there is a stable system of politics. The politicians are willing to
develop their state efficiently. It can happen only when there is democratic system in the
state.
Need for a new consensus. The political leaders must take choices amid debates if they
intend to seize the opportunities to promote democracy and economic growth. A new
approach is needed. One possible approach would be to set realistic economic goals, new
guidelines for provision of international assistance and to integrate democracy building
programmes into efforts to reduce poverty.
A real dialogue:- if the goal is to reduce poverty, the governments international
financial institutions and civil society needs to conduct a real dialogue on how to make
globalization work for the poor.
Trade policy and poverty reduction:- the trade policy should be formulated in such a
way that takes into account the national strategies for poverty reduction and
redistribution.
UN Recommendations:-
i. Democracy and rule of law should be promoted and there should be efforts to integrate
marginalized groups into mainstream.
ii. There is a need to reduce inequalities in access to resources and opportunities.
iii. Conditions in the informal economies should be improved by providing social
protection programmes and better linkages between formal and informal economies to
improve wages, benefits and working conditions of the workers in the developing
countries.
iv. There should be more opportunities for employment.
v. Youth should be the focus of the unemployment policies.
Conclusion:-
The success of globalization would depend on how different actors that is governments;
multinational institutions, private business and NGOs pursue the goals, not only globally
but also collectively.

Globalization:
1: Introduction
2: what is globalization?
3: Ancient Vs Modern globalization
4: Advantages of globalization
* Shrinks the world through
---- Information and communication Technology
---- Speedy and Heavey transportation
* Economically integrate the world Via
---- Interdependence
----- Trade accords
---- Organizations and MNCs
* Harmonize the world with
---- cultural assimilation
---- Social interaction
* Secure the world with
---- Better health techniques
---- Better living standards
----- decline the ratio of war
5: Disadvantages
* Exploit the world by
---- accumulation of wealth in global north
---- MNCs capitalistic approach
* Undermines world safety
---- through poor and ail environment standard
---- Invention of WMD
---- for the sake of power struggle
* Other grave outcomes
---- denigrate the global culture
---- Social interaction loss
---- Rich-poor gap due to inequality
6: Who is getting benefit of globalization?
7: Can Modern Globalization create a great future? Yes!
---- Through equality measures between worlds countries and their people
---- with disarmament of all kind of WMD
---- With better environment standards
---- with sober use of technology
8: What will happen if we didn't change our current accord of globalization.
9: Conclusion
Your suggestion will be highly obliged please. Thanks

Global Warming
Posted on August 17, 2006 by Qurratulain Akhtar

The term Global warming is regarded as a continuous process through which the average temperature of the
Earth increases, causing atmospheric and climatic changes. The history of global warming dates from the mid of
20th century when scientists claimed the rise in the average temperature of the Earth. During the initial period of
its discovery global warming was a limited topic for scientists and researchers only. They made some efforts in
order to create awareness. It, however, remained a controversy between different groups of researchers for
almost three decades. In late 1980s a group of scientists of NASA challenged the global warming. They held
that the rise in the Earths average temperature is not continuous. They were of the opinion that the average
temperature of the Earth rises in some years but it falls as well. They had strong evidence of fall in average
temperature of the Earth during 1943-45 and 1981-84. With the development of new technologies and changing
research criterion, the issue of global warming has taken a new direction. Now the term global warming is not
only the rise in average temperature of the Earth but also changing the economic, commercial, political and
human geography of the world by causing problems in economic, social and political stages of the world. For a
better understanding of the effects of global warming its necessary to have a glimpse of the factors which cause
global warming.
The factors responsible for global warming can be classified as primary factors and secondary factors. These
two factors are very close to each other and work in co-ordination. The primary factors include the human
activities which cause the destructions of the natural environment. These activities are performed by humans in
order to satisfy the increasing needs of their artificial environment i.e. the needs of increasing population. Man
uses industries, vehicles etc in this context. Primary factors mainly include pollution, i.e. Land pollution, air
pollution and water pollution, and deforestation. The types of pollution which are directly responsible for the
global warming are air pollution and land pollution. Air pollution is caused by the discharge of harmful gases in
the air. Smoke from domestic concerns, industries and vehicles play a vital role in this connection. Industrial
gaseous waste and smoke from vehicles contain chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are highly reactant gases.
When these gases react with the CO2 present in the air, the reaction releases energy which causes the
atmosphere to get hot. When these CFCs go a little up, they find ozone there.
Actually Ozone is an isotope of oxygen with a strong bond O3 .This bond of oxygen is unbreakable for ordinary
elements but as CFCs are highly reactants they break up the O3 bond forming CO2 etc and yields as a broken
ozone layer.The ozone layer stops infra-red and ultra-violet rays from coming to the surface of the earth, but
when this layer breaks infra-red and ultra-violet rays find their way direct to the surface of the earth, penetrating
into it and make the inside of the Earth hot.
The part played by land pollution is comparatively less than that of the air pollution. The waste materials
discharged by industrial and domestic concerns is absorbed by the surface of the Earth. When these substances
pass through a chemical reaction with the elements inside the Earth, the released energy increases the
temperature of the Earth and changes its formation.
The role of pesticides and excess use of fertilizers is contra part of land pollution.
After pollution the most important factor contributed by humans is deforestation, whereby people cut trees but do
not plant the replacements in the same ratio. Trees absorb a large amount of CO2 present in the air, so that the
air gets purified for living things (man and animals) to breathe in. The decreased number of trees increases the
action of CO2 in the atmosphere, which heats it up and hence caused global warming.
The secondary factors include Green house effect and Natural Disaster. Green house effect causes some
gases to stay in the atmospheres which heat it up. Natural Disasters are in fact the next episode of air pollution,
whereby the change in the climate comes to happen. the influx of infra-rd and ultra-violet rays cause the polar ice
to melt. Hence the level of water in the oceans and seas increases. The increased water in the oceans and seas
brings flooding, cyclones and tornadoes etc. Not only this, but the increased temperature of the inside of the
Earth (when infrared and ultra violet rays penetrate into the surface of the Earth) causes magma to heat up and
result as volcanic eruption, earthquakes( heat expands the tectonic plates so the either collide or overlap) and
seaquakes (quakes in the sea-bed, which brings Tsunamis).
The effects of Global Warming are hazardous. These effects are economic, social political and environmental in
nature. The Economic effects are the basic ones. The economy of a particular area depends upon its natural,
human and financial resources. The natural disasters and changing climates ruin the economic infrastructure of
the area by destroying all these resources. Unfavourable climate for crops creates scarcity of food and clothing.
The ultimate consequences are hunger, diseases, homelessness etc. All these consequences paralyze the
economy. The major examples in this regard are (1) the tsunami which hit Indonesia and some parts of India
and (2) the Earthquake in northern Areas of Pakistan. The helplessness of people, the massive deaths and
destruction of domestic as well as industrial concerns cant be forgotten.
Other major examples of the effects of global warming are Katrina, Rita and Velma hurricanes which hit USA.
The formation of these hurricanes is actually a consequence of global warming. USA is the biggest industrial
estate of the world, generating most of the industrial gaseous waste, containing CFCs. These CFCs has
depleted the ozone layer on the North Pole. The hole in the ozone layer is about 25 km in diameter. The depleted
ozone layer allowed the infra-red and ultra-violet rays to enter into the troposphere (part of atmosphere close to
earths surface). The most of the area of North Pole is a layer of ice about a mile deep. The infra-red and ultra-
violet rays melted this layer and the increased level of water in the Arctic, which traveled towards the land in form
of these hurricanes. The economic effects of these disasters were also massive but USA being a prosperous
country bore the shock. The effect of global warming doesnt stop here. According to careful approximations
Seven States of USA will be under water by the next decade.
The social effects of the global warming may also be known as long term problems, which are basically derived
from the primary economic effects. The social effects include poverty, changing attitudes (as a consequence of
shock), low standard of living, deprival of social needs etc. These social effects respond as social evils in the
societies, i.e. robberies, murders etc.
The most important effect is the political effect which takes a long time to get developed. The changing
topographies as a result of disasters may also effect the international boundaries, which in long run creates
disputes among the nations. The changing formation of the Earth may also be seen as an appearance of a new
piece of land or a disappearance of an existing piece of land. In this context Id like to quote example of an island
appeared in Mediterranean sea and the dispute between the all nearest countries for the possession of the same.
The environmental effects are misbalancing ecosystems, diseases (skin cancer etc), changed topography,
destroyed habitats etc. These environmental effects of global warming had enjoyed a good favour, as they had
been discussed more than any other effect till yet. But unluckily, in spite of all favours, these Effects of global
warming are increasing day by day.
Man has always been in combat with the problems, so to ensure the maximum reduction in the negative
consequences of the global warming; he made a lot of efforts. In the early 1970s American senate passed a bill
to save the environment. In this connection, every year on 22nd March, Earth Day is celebrated through out the
world. In Pakistan the day gained popularity in last couple of years. This is a good step to create awareness
among the common men, but only urban areas of a country benefit from it. Rural areas of most of the countries
do not play role in this regard.
Kyoto Protocol is also a major step in formulating remedies for the adversities of the global warming. According
to this statement, all the countries should decrease their industrial waste up to 10% per annum. The biggest
industrial estate USA which produces about 70% of the total industrial waste of the world has abandoned the
statement. Careful approximations reveal that decreasing industrial production up to 10% will cost USA a loss of
about $ 3,000,000,000,000 (3 trillion dollars) per year, which USA doesnt want to bear.
Sustainable economic growth is another strategy presented by experts. According to this strategy the economic
resources should be utilized in such a way that they do not create any adversity for the natural environment. This
strategy demands a sustainable growth which means the production concerns should produce the commodities
according to careful statistics, so that the probability of wastage should be minimum. Secondly the sustainable
economic growth helps to maintain resources for a long period of time. For instance the major fuel which is being
used in the whole world today is fossil fuel. Burning of fossil fuel plays apart in global warming on one hand and
scarcity of fuel on other hand. Scientists are of the strong opinion that the amount of fossil fuel which is
consumed in a year, take almost one million year to be produced by natural decomposition of materials.
In my opinion formulating remedies only is not the way, these remedies must be applied in a pragmatic context.
To lessen the effects of global warming it is crucially required to nip its causes. The rules should be equal for all
industrial concerns, whether it is USA or any other developing country. International organization should ensure
the decrease in industrial waste by USA. Secondly the efforts should not be limited to urban areas, but the
participation of rural areas should also be encouraged. Secondly environmental education should be a part of co-
curricular activities in the educational institutes, i.e. schools colleges and universities. The above mentioned
steps can be best at societal, national and international level, but nothing gets done until someone starts it. So
the most important of all the strategies is individual participation.
Global warming has caused various changes in atmosphere and climate of the Earth, which adversely affected
almost all areas of human activities. In the present scenario we are not in the position to nip the global warming
completely but what we can do is to minimize its effects with the help of sustainable economic growth and
awareness programs at every level. The crucial need in this regard is uniform direction at global level.

Poverty in Pakistan
Posted on September 2, 2006 by Qurratulain Akhtar

Theory of Poverty: [1]

Poverty cannot be described it can only be felt. One knows more about poverty when he is hungry and cannot
purchase food, he and his children want new clothes but they cant purchase it because of low income, hes sick
and doesnt have money to have medicine, he wants to send his children to school but cant bear educational
expenditures. The world Development Reports define poverty as pronounced deprivation in well being. Poverty
can be measured by following three methods, i.e. Head Count Ratio, Basic Needs Approach, and Poverty of
Opportunity.
According to Head Count Ratio, the persons who fall below the poverty line as determined in the country are
regarded as poor. In Pakistan, for instance, the persons who earn income which cannot meet the daily intake of
about 2350 calories per person are considered to fall below the poverty line. Basic Needs Approach suggests
the measurement of poverty with reference to income distribution. According to this approach if the persons of a
fixed income group cannot purchase basic needs, i.e. food, clothing, housing, education and basic health
facilities, they are considered to fall below the poverty line. The third approach which is poverty of opportunity, if
due to fall in income, health or education the human sufferings increase the people are considered to have fallen
below the poverty line.

Poverty in Practice: [2]

Global environment:
Globally considerable progress has nevertheless been made in different parts of the world in reducing poverty.
The proportion of people living in extreme poverty on global level fell from 28 percent in 1990 to 21 percent in
2001 (on the basis of $1 a day). In absolute numbers the reduction during the period was 130 million with most of
it coming from China. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the absolute number of poor actually increased by 100 million
during the period. The Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS also witnessed a dramatic increase in poverty.
While incidence of poverty declined in South Asia; Latin America and the Middle East witnessed no change.
Proposal to tackle the problem:
The recent trends in global and regional poverty clearly suggest one thing and that is, that rapid economic growth
over a prolonged period is essential for poverty reduction. At the macro level, economic growth implies greater
availability of public resources to improve the quantity and quality of education, health and other services. At the
micro level, economic growth creates employment opportunities, increases the income of the people and
therefore reduces poverty. Many developing countries have succeeded in boosting growth for a short period. But
only those that have achieved higher economic growth over a long period have seen a lasting reduction in
poverty East Asia and China are classic examples of lasting reduction in poverty. One thing is also clear from the
evidence of East Asia and China that growth does not come automatically. It requires policies that will promote
growth. Macroeconomic stability is therefore, key to a sustained high economic growth.
Although extreme poverty on global level has declined, the gap between the rich and poor countries is increasing,
even when developing countries are growing at a faster pace than developed ones perhaps due to the large
income gaps at the initial level. In a world of six billion people, one billion have 80 percent of the income and five
billion have less than 20 percent. This issue of global imbalance is at the core of the challenge to scale up
poverty reduction.
Case of Pakistan: [3]
Poverty has many dimensions in Pakistan. People have not only low incomes but they also are suffering from
lack of access over basic needs. The major challenge of today is poverty reduction. In Pakistan, Poverty
Reduction Strategy was launched by the government in 2001 in response to the rising trend in poverty during
1990s. It consisted of the following five elements:-
(a) Accelerating economic growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
(b) Investing in human capital.
(c) Augmenting targeted interventions.
(d) Expanding social safety nets.
(e) Improving governance.
The net outcome of interactions among these five elements would be the expected reduction in transitory and
chronic poverty on a sustained basis. The reduction in poverty and improvement in social indicators and living
conditions of the society are being monitored frequently through large- scale household surveys in order to gauge
their progress in meeting the targets set by Pakistan for achieving the seven UN Millennium Development Goals
by 2015.
Pakistans growth performance over the last four years is enviable in many respects. Sound macroeconomic
policies and implementation of structural reforms in almost all sectors of the economy have transformed Pakistan
into a stable and resurgent economy in recent years. The real GDP has grown at an average rate of over 7.5
percent per annum during the last three years (2003/04 to 2005/06). With population growing at an average rate
of 1.9 percent per annum, the real per capita income has grown at an average rate of 5.6 percent per annum.
The strong economic growth is bound to create employment opportunities and therefore reduce unemployment.
The evidence provided by the Labour Force Survey 2005 (First two quarters) clearly supports the fact that
economic growth has created employment opportunities. Since 2003-04 and until the first half of 2005-06, 5.82
million new jobs have been created as against an average job creation of 1.0 1.2 million per annum.
Consequently, unemployment rate which stood at 8.3 percent in 2001-02 declined to 7.7 percent in 2003-04 and
stood at 6.5 percent during July December 2005. The rising pace of job creation is bound to increase the
income levels of the people.
In recent years the role of remittances in reducing poverty has been widely acknowledged. Remittances allow
families to maintain or increase expenditure on basic consumption, housing, education, and small-business
formation. Total remittances inflows since 2001-02 and until 2005-06 have amounted over $ 19 billion or Rs.1129
billion. Such a massive inflow of remittances particularly towards the rural or semi-urban areas of Pakistan must
have helped loosen the budget constraints of their recipients, allowing them to increase consumption of both
durables and non-durables, on human capital accumulation (through both education and health care), and on
real estate. To the extent that the poorer sections of society depend on remittances for their basic consumption
needs, increased flow of remittances would be associated with reduction in poverty.
Although, growth is necessary but it is not sufficient to make any significant dent to poverty. Realizing this fact the
government had launched a directed program under the title of Poverty Related and Social Sector Program some
five years ago. Over the last five years the government has spent Rs.1332 billion on poverty-related and social
sector program to cater to the needs of poor and vulnerable sections of the society. Such a huge spending on
targeted program is bound to make a significant dent to poverty. The Household Integrated Economic Survey
(HIES) a component of Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey provides important
data on household income, consumption expenditure and consumption patterns at national and provincial level
with rural-urban breakdown. The information pertaining to income and expenditure of the households are used to
estimate poverty. The HIES is specifically designed to monitor poverty status of population by collecting
information on consumption expenditure at the household level. With a representative sample size of 14706
households, it covered 5808 and 8898 households in the urban and rural areas of the country, respectively. The
Survey was started in July 2004 and the entire field operations were completed in June 2005. The poverty line is
based on 2350 calories per adult equivalent per day. It is also comparable with poverty line of 2000-01 as it was
also based on 2350 calories and calculated from Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS). The poverty line
of 2004-05 is adjusted by the inflation rate during the period 2001-2005.
The latest estimate of inflation adjusted poverty Line is Rs.878.64 per adult equivalent per month up from
Rs.723.40 in 2001. Headcount ratio, i.e., percentage of population living below the poverty line has fallen from
34.46 percent in 2001 to 23.9 percent in 2004-05, a decline of 10.6 percentage points. In absolute numbers the
count of poor persons has fallen from 49.23 million in 2001 to 36.45 million in 2004-05. The percentage of
population living below the poverty line in rural areas has declined from 39.26 percent to 28.10 percent while
those in urban areas, has declined from 22.69 percent 14.9 percent. In other words, rural poverty has declined by
11.16 percentage points and urban poverty is reduced by 7.79 percentage points.
Consumption inequality increased marginally during the period. These findings are consistent with the
developments on economic scene that have taken place in Pakistan since 2000-01. A strong growth in economy,
rise in per capita income, a large inflow of remittances and massive spending on poverty-related and social
sector programs were expected to reduce poverty in Pakistan. It is important to note that the methodology and
the estimates of poverty have been endorsed by the development partners such as the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Department for International
Development (DFID), UK. The service of world renowned poverty expert, Professor Nanak Kakwani was hired by
the UNDP to independently look into the methodology as well as poverty estimates. He also authenticated both
the methodology and estimates. In order to maintain consistency across years, it is essential that we apply the
same agreed upon methodology over the years, irrespective of its weaknesses and strengths.
Conclusion: [4]
Pakistan has emerged as Asian Tiger with reference to the Economic growth during last couple of years. And
government of Pakistan spent about Rs.1332 billion to reduce the poverty. And as a result poverty reduced from
39.26 to 28.10 percent (rural) and from 22.69 to 14.9 percent (urban). By having a close look at the facts it is
revealed that although a heavy amount has been spent on poverty reduction but the attained results are not up to
the mark as poverty percentage stands quite high. Actually government has spent all this amount only on first
strategy of poverty reduction, i.e. Accelerating economic growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability, while
other four strategies have been left either untouched or neglected.
Government only targeted high macro economic growth; the level of investment in human capital has not been
seen at even a low extent. Augmentation in targeted interventions has also been misdirected. Employment
opportunities should have been created with in the industrial or agricultural sector in order to accelerate the
production of basic needs so that consumer goods should have been in the reach of low income group. While
services sector was expanded without any planning, which resulted in a situation that mobile is kept by every one
but they dont have access over basic needs.
After that social safety nets have also been neglected, theres no proper pronouncement by government in this
regard. And finally improvement in Governance, which has been left untouched. For a long time, whenever
senior government personnel visits a major city like Karachi, all the traffic on the roads is diverted in the streets
and all the work being done is stopped in order to ensure the security of the official. By this way those who earn
on daily wages, have to suffer loss in daily wages. I quoted this example because when rulers are so insecure in
their own homeland how can they improve the governance or develop their country or how can they ensure the
safety of the whole country?
Concisely, in spite of all efforts of government poverty still stands as an iron wall for Pakistans economy. And to
break this iron wall we are in need to apply all five poverty reduction strategies at utmost level.
References:
1- Economics of Pakistan, M.Saeed Nasir
2- Reports of World Bank
3- Economic Survey 200506

The Political System of Islam

Posted on August 31, 2006 by Qurratulain Akhtar

The Political System of Islam:

Islamic concept of life is a co-ordination between body and soul, and the Political system prescribed by Islam
establishes a relationship between religion and politics. In social conception, Islam is communal; it encourages
social life and collective efforts to maintain the essence of society. Social concept of Islam aims at the
development of an individual and hence the development of whole Muslim community. It emphasizes on mutual
co-operation, co-ordination among all responsible authorities, collective efforts of the community to develop the
society and sharing of knowledge and materialistic objects for the benefit of all. The same law regulates the
affairs of the country or state. For a better understanding of the political system of Islam, lets have a look at its
major determinants.
Determinants of Political System of Islam:
# Concept of Nationality
# Form of Government
# Duties of the State
# Foreign Policy
Concept of Nationality:
The term nationality represents a race of people sharing, common place of birth, language, and culture. In this
context nationality of people of one particular region / territory differs from that of the nationality of another, with
reference to variance in language, birth place and culture. In this scenario people of different regions / territories
are strangers or aliens for each other. This definition of the term nationality is a narrow one, un-acceptable for
the inhabitants of entire world. The above mentioned definition of nationality keeps the people of various regions
away form each other, creates a stage for one race to be alien for others, so here comes the maximum
probability of conflicts.
Islam places a broader definition of nationality. According to this broad definition, A common ideology is the
basis of nationality among the Muslims, and Islam is this ideology. The Quran (30/22, 49/13) has rejected all the
superiority on account of language, colour of skin and other ineluctable incidences of nature, and recognizes the
only superiority of individuals as that based on piety.
Form of Government:
A Republic, a monarchy, a joint-rule, among other forms all are valid in the Islamic community.
If at a given time, in a given surrounding, all the requisite qualities of a commander of the faithful or Caliph are
not found united in the same person, one admits voluntarily the division of power also for the purpose of the
better functioning of the government. We may refer to the famous case cited by the Quran (2/ 246-7): A former
prophet was solicited by his people to select for them a king besides his own prophetic self, so that they may war
under his leadership, against the enemy which has expelled them from their homes and families. The designation
of a king in the presence of and in addition to a prophet, and even by the intermediation of latter, shows the
length to which one can go in this direction. A division is thus made between the spiritual and temporal functions,
yet no arbitrary power is tolerated for either of them: the politics and the king remain as much subject to the
divine law as the cults and the prophets. The source of authority and the codes of law remain the same; only the
application of the law and the execution of the dispositions relate to different persons. It is more a question of
specialization then a divorce between the two aspects of life.
** A glimpse of Caliphate**
As valid forms of government are mentioned earlier, it is, however, a great deal of controversy in opinions
regarding a specific form of government prescribed by Islam. This series of controversies date from the death of
Holy Prophet (P.B.U.H) where by no positive or precise instruction was left regarding his succession. At that time
one group was of the opinion that statal power should rest in heirloom, and as Prophet (P.B.U.H) had left no male
to succeed so the power should go to his uncle Abbas (RA) or his cousin Ali (R.A). The second group held the
demand of an ad hoc individual election. And majority was in favour of election so the form of government
incorporated was intermediary between hereditary monarchy and republic:
The caliph was elected for life. Incorporation of election brought it into the category of republic, while the duration
of power resembled as monarchy. Initially the dissidents and latterly rival claimants, and after that the dynasty
brought Umaiyads, replaced by Abbasids. Well, the successes and the failures of all these will be discussed later
in some other thread.
**Some facts Referring Form of Government**
1- This is narration of Ibn-e-Hisham, As for Ibn-e Saad (III/i.p.151) Abu Said Al Khudri reports: When the prophet
breathed his last, the orators of the Ansarites stood up and one of the said Oh muhajirites, whenever the Prophet
(P.B.U.H) nominated a person as aamil (Governor), he attached to him some one from amongst usso that we are
of the opinion that, this power (Caliphate) should also be exercised by two persons, one from among you and one
from among us. ( So at the time of Hazrat Abu Bakrs nomination for Caliph there was a proposal for joint rule as
well. But for the practical reasons the proposal was rejected)
2- A Hadith in Tirimdhi reports that, Prophet (P.B.U.H) predicted that after him the caliphate would continue only
for thirty years and that afterwards a biting kingship would follow.
Duties of the State:
According to the political system of Islam, the duties of the state are broadly categorized as:
1- Executive: These duties cover the range of civil, military and administrative responsibilities. By keeping the
sovereign powers to almighty Allah, it is the responsibility of the state to maintain
2- Legislative: The legislature in Islam is subjected to the word of God (Quran), which is the source of law in all
walks of life, spiritual as well as temporal.
3- Judiciary: Judiciary demands for equality of law for all, in which the head of the state is not exempted even. In
case of conflicts between individuals or parties from different communities, a private international law will regulate
the cases.
4- Cultural: The cultural duty of the state is not limited only to maintain cultural values with in the territory but also
to organize foreign mission to make others know what Islam stands for.
Foreign Policy:
The relations of a country with other countries of the world are based on international law. In the historical context
of international politics Muslims were the first to develop the international law under the head of SIYAR (Conduct,
i.e. of a ruler).
According to the Islamic International law, the Muslims and the non-Muslims are equal with reference to their
sufferings. The foreign policy of Islamic Political System aims to attain positive and pleasant relations with other
countries and to promote mutual co-operation to lessen the sufferings.
One of the salient features of Foreign policy of Islamic Political system is that, it insists on the importance of the
given word. For instance, a foreigner attains permission to visit an Islamic territory for a particular time period.
And a war breaks out before the expiry of his visa, its the responsibility of the state to ensure his security during
his stay and his secure return to his native land. Moreover, if he wants to take his goods and gains with him, hell
not be restricted to do so.
Conclusion:
It is hard for me to conclude the political system of Islam, but what I came up with after going through the
determinants of the political system of Islam is as follows.
Islam aims to maintain peace of mind and soul not only for a particular individual but for everyone. In order to
maintain the peace of mind and soul, it is required to have a co-ordination among all world community. This
coordination should exclude the distinction of race and country. Islam doesnt also demand for any compulsion of
religious beliefs, as every one is personally responsible to God.
As far as government is concerned, for Islam Government is supposed to serve the people in such a way that a
relationship of trust should be maintained. Being the servant of people its the duty of the government to make all
possible efforts for the welfare of the people.
The writer is a leading essayist of CSS Forum based at Underground.
REFERENCES:
1- Introduction to Islam by Dr.Hamidullah
2- Understanding Islam by Maulana Abul Ala Maudoodi

Literacy and Economic Development

Posted on August 26, 2006 by Qurratulain Akhtar

Economic prosperity of a country entirely depends on the economic resources it has. These economic resources
are classified as Natural resources, financial resources and Human resources. Natural resources comprise of
fertile land, ideal topography, abundant forests, sufficient mineral resources and excess water supply. Financial
resources include the capital needed for the economic activities. Human resources include the population, its
growth rate, skills, standard of living and working capacity of the labour force. According to modern economists a
country leading in natural resources has more opportunities to develop than that of a country lacking in such
resources. But only abundant availability of natural resources does not make sure the economic development of
a country, these resources need to be utilized at their optimum. And this is only possible when efficient
manpower utilizes these resources. The developed economy of Japan is the open example in this regard
whereby Japan had overcome the deficiency of Natural resources by excelling in Human resources. In other
words it can be said that economic development only occurs when Natural and Financial resources are
maintained properly by efficient Human resources.
On the other hand if Human resources fail to maintain Natural and Financial resources, these resources may be
misutilized, underutilized or unutilized and cause economic inefficiency, for instance underdeveloped countries of
the world like Afghanistan has excess of mineral resources but the economy is not developed due to lack of
Human resources. Another example is Pakistan, where we have sufficient mineral resources but due to lack of
skilled manpower we cannot utilize all those resources, and as a result of such we are not in the queue of
developed countries.
Literacy is the key tool to make the workforce efficient. The word literacy means a state of being able to read and
write. In a broader sense literacy is a phenomenon by which one can enhance his communication, professional
and social skills. The impact of literacy on economic development is positive and can be easily determined by
comparing the standard of living, per capita income, GDP, industrialization and development of infrastructure
within a country. Literacy enhances the working capabilities of people by providing them with skill development.
Literacy and economic development have endless companionship, but the role played by literacy on economic
development is quite dominant. Literacy has the positive influence on the economics development in the following
ways.
1. It helps to enhance the skills of workforce, which result as a positive influence on work behaviour. By
enhancing his skills one can earn more which brings economic prosperity at both Micro (individual) level and
Macro level (rise in real GDP).
2. Literacy develops a sense of responsibility among the common man, by which one can become a good citizen.
3. Increasing rate of literacy brings about a state of competition among different firms, industries and sectors of
production, which helps an economy to grow on strong bases of competition.
4. Increasing rate of literacy also helps to control and maintain population growth. Hence qualitative population is
found with increased standard of living and more access over basic needs.
5. Increased technical education helps to develop new and sophisticated methods of production and distribution,
which can reduce the cost of production and increase the rate of return.
6. Educated and skilled workers are the assets of a country, which may have demand not only within the country
but are highly demanded in other countries also. By rendering their services abroad they can earn more of the
foreign exchange and GDP will increase with the increase in foreign earnings.
7. If literate people come to run the government along with economy, country will have a great benefit in such a
way these people will allocate the resources at their best and hence the chances of misallocation and
misutilization of resources will diminish.
8. Proper and planned allocation of resources brings increased and qualitative production. Increased production
leads to more employment opportunities. Thus the level of unemployment reduces from the country.
9. Inflation is one of the major problems of todays economics. According to the research reduction in inflation is
directly related to the reduction in unemployment level. As literacy and skill development helps to reduce the
unemployment it leads towards the control over inflation. And hence economy rides on the strong horse of
development.
10. Literacy also helps to enhance the communication skills among the people. Developed communication skills
help an individual to contact with more and more employers in order to get better job opportunities. Developed
communication skills also help to maintain pleasant relationship between the employer and employees, which
reduces the conflicts among them and by this way the productivity of the firm extends.
11. Along with the development of professional and communication skills, literacy and education develop social
skills by which an individual learns to move in the society and he realizes the importance of society, as no one
can live in isolation.
12. By enhancing the skills among the workers, the organization can get maximum productivity.
Concisely literacy has great importance in the economic development of a country. Literacy brings all the positive
changes in variable factors of production as well as in infrastructure development; it also minimizes or may wipe
out negativities. No one can deny the importance of literacy. It can be said that literacy is a pillar on which the
major part of an economy stands, if the pillar is strong enough to hold the economy, the anomalies can be
reduced very easily and the economy will multiply. And if the pillar of literacy is weak and fragile the anomalies
may push the economy downward and the economy may fall down on all four.
For the better economic development it is more important to strengthen the pillar of literacy. It requires strategic
planning and financial resources to facilitate the literacy programs. The financial resources required for the
development of literacy programs may not be considered as expense, in fact it is an investment which gives
fruitful results in future.
The strategic planning required for the development of literacy programs is the part of economic planning. The
strong the economic planning is the better the result will be.
From an analytical point of view the economic prosperity and literacy are the two directly proportional procedures
which have a great influence on each other. As a countrys workforce is educated, skilled, organized, competitive
and wanting to go ahead, no one can stop such an economy from being prosperous.
Concisely economic development depends on the qualitative workforce and this qualitative workforce can be
acquired by developing professional, social and communication skills through literacy and education.
As the people of a country are literate they will work much better for their own and as they will work to satisfy their
needs, simultaneously countrys economy will grow and develop.

GLOBAL WARMING - FACT OR FICTION

Introduction to Global Warming:

Greenhouse warming has existed for quite some time, arguably since Earth was first
formed. Greenhouse gases, or gases conducive to the greenhouse effect, act like a
blanket or the panes of glass in a greenhouse's walls; they reflect the heat the earth
would radiate into space back down towards the earth, holding it in. You see, the
balance of heat on earth is maintained by different processes. Solar radiation approaches
the earth, and clouds and the atmosphere reflect some of it back into space. More
radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, clouds, and the surface of the earth. Then the
earth radiates the heat back as infrared radiation. To maintain a certain, constant
temperature, the rate that Earth emits energy into space must equal the rate it absorbs
the sun's energy. The greenhouse effect's refusal to allow a certain amount of this
terrestrial radiation to pass keeps the Earth's average surface temperature at about 60F
(15C). If there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of the heat radiated
by the Earth's surface would be lost directly to outer space, and the planet's temperature
would be 0F (-18C), too cold for most forms of life (Greenhouse).

There are several atmospheric gases that act as greenhouse gases (GHGs). The most
infamous is carbon dioxide, which is emitted through the respiration of humans and
animals, the burning of fossil fuel, deforestation, and other changes in land use. Carbon
dioxide is the main focus of many greenhouse gas sanctions, since it is the greenhouse
gas that has most been released into the atmosphere. However, some other gases may
have a greater effect upon climate than CO2. If one examines research into the possible
warming effect of other GHGs relative to CO2, one finds that over a 100-year period,
there are gases present in far smaller amounts that have a much more concentrated
effect. Methane, a gas produced by livestock (flatulence), oil and gas production, coal
mining, solid waste, and wet rice agriculture, has 11 times more warming potential per
volume than CO2 (Science), or 25 times more per molecule (Clarkson). Nitrous oxide,
produced mainly in connection with current agricultural practices, has 270 times more
warming potential per volume over this period than CO2 (Science). Chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), the gases used as refrigerants and in aerosol spray dispensers that were banned
some time back due to their ozone depletion potential, have 3400-7100 times more
warming potential per volume than CO2 (Science). Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the CFC substitutes, have a slightly smaller warming
potential at 1200-1600 times larger per volume than CO2 (Science).
And so, as one might infer, studies are showing that additions of GHGs may cause the
earth to get warmer than it naturally would. This is what is referred to as anthropogenic
(human-caused) global warming. Many times, the terms global warming and climate
change are used interchangeably. (We will do the same, for continuity's sake.) But, this
is not correct and the concepts are different. Climate change includes precipitation, wind
patterns, and temperature. It also refers to the whole climate, not just weather
conditions of one place. Global warming is an indication of climate change. It is an
example of a climate change that has the atmosphere's average temperature increase.
Earth has experienced much warming and much cooling throughout its history. There is
a great deal of debate as to whether or not the earth is experiencing a globally warming
climate change and, if it is, whether the underlying causes are man-made or natural.
Different research has given different results.

However, even when greenhouse gases were arguably at a stable level, before the onset
of the Industrial Revolution, Earth's climate tended to fluctuate widely. A period from
5,000 to 3,000 BC (when civilization began) is called the Climatic Optimum and another
period from 900 - 1200 AD is called the Little Climatic Optimum or the Medieval Climatic
Optimum, both so named for their unusually warm temperatures. Likewise, a period
from 1550 to 1850 is known as the Little Ice Age for its unusually cold temperatures
(Pidwirny). At this time, glaciers in southern Norway reached their greatest extent in
9000 years (Keigwin). With such large variations possible, it is difficult to know where
the next natural fluctuation could take us. Perhaps those who find that global climate is
warming are simply measuring a natural fluctuation. Or perhaps a natural fluctuation is
masking the real effect of GHGs on the globe.

Global Warming: Big Questions, Big Research

As mentioned previously, there is a great debate over whether or not humans are
causing global warming. Some activists and researchers have resorted to name-calling
or accusing the opposing side of having "sold out" to one special interest or another. As
mentioned previously, we have attempted to cut away the personal attacks between the
opposing sides, search for the kernel of truth (or logic, where truth cannot be
discerned), and get down to the heart of the matter.

In order to properly read any of the reports or research on global climate change, one
must keep in mind that nothing (or almost nothing) is certain. Everything has a certain
degree of uncertainty, a certain flavor of the unknown. There really is no conclusive
evidence of global warming, and many scientists in favor of the global warming
hypothesis say that it will be a decade or more before it is possible to develop any
substantial evidence. As an anonymous senior climate modeler has said about global
warming, "The more you learn, the more you understand that you don't understand very
much" (Kerr - Greenhouse Forecasting). Global climate is by nature always fluctuating,
and that only adds to the confusion about anthropogenic global warming. If there were
an anthropogenic global warming, we couldn't be sure what temperature we were
supposed to be at, as climate shifts are a natural part of life on Earth. Compounding that
confusion is natural variability, which is always working to confuse researchers just as
they come close to attributing a perceived change in average temperature to some
external factor, such as atmospheric composition (GHGs) or solar variation. One reason
for this variability is the long adjustment time of the oceans' heat storage and current
systems. It is estimated to take several hundred years for water to circulate from the
deepest portions of the oceans back to the surface. This means that if, for example, a
pool of extra cold water is singled out and stored in the depths by some freak
mechanism, it could stay there a century or two before resurfacing and producing a
local, cool climate change (Clarkson, North, and Schmandt).

Since no one can create another Earth (let alone one that behaves exactly like ours) and
perform atmosphere-altering experiments on it, we are left with the alternative of
theorizing based on observations. In other words, the only way we can purport to know
anything about what might be changing in our climate is by playing with data, such as
records of temperature, borehole measurements, etc., and seeing what scenarios the
data will agree with.

Most of the body of global warming theory is based on computerized climate models
called global circulation models or GCMs, for they are almost the only tools global
warming researchers have. GCMs are difficult to make as making them properly involves
a deep-rooted understanding of the way the atmosphere works and how its actions are
interconnected with other planetary bodies, such as the oceans or the terrestrial
biosphere. But our understanding of the inner workings of the atmosphere and the ways
it relates to other planetary bodies is not very good. Renowned NASA climate modeler
James Hansen, the man whose summer 1988 congressional testimony kicked off the
climate change debate, states in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
"The forcings [outside factors] that drive long-term climate change are not known with
an accuracy sufficient to define future climate changes." One of the fundamental
illustrations of chaos, the butterfly effect, displays the interconnectedness of the
atmosphere system when it states that a butterfly fluttering through the air in China
could cause rain in New York the following spring.

GCMs are made by formulating mathematical descriptions of the interrelationships

between the atmosphere/ocean/biosphere/cryosphere system and conducting numerical
experiments. They certainly are unable to form a mathematical description based on the
kind of interconnections, or feedbacks, that the butterfly effect would suggest. Indeed,
Michael Schlesinger, modeler at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, tells us
that "in the climate system, there are 14 orders of magnitude, from the planetary scale--
which is 40 million meters--down to the scale of one of the little aerosol particles on
which water vapor can change phase to a liquid [cloud particle]--which is a fraction of a
millionth of a millimeter." Of these 14 orders of magnitude, only the two largest (the
planetary scale and the scale of weather disturbances) can currently be included in
models. Schlesinger notes that, to include the third order of magnitude (the scale of
thunderstorms, at about 50 km resolution) a computer a thousand times faster would be
necessary, "a teraflops machine that maybe we'll have in 5 years." Including all orders of
magnitude would require 1036-1037 times more computing power (Kerr - Greenhouse
Forecasting).

Because GCMs are so hard to make, often they account for the same processes
differently; two models may have two different mathematical descriptions of what effect
clouds have on warming, for example. Processes with a resolution smaller than a few
hundred kilometers cannot be represented directly in the models, but instead must be
parameterized, or expressed in terms of the larger scale motions, since the models do
not have the resolution necessary to properly represent the actions of important weather
systems such as tropical and extratropical cyclones. To offset this downfall, a few
parameterizations (such as horizontal eddy viscosity, large-scale precipitation cumulus
convection, gravity wave drag, etc.) are calibrated. Added to these parameterizations
are adjustments commonly referred to as flux corrections, and they are an important
"fudge factor" for the GCMs. These factors keep the models from floating off into
nowhere. As Kerr (Model) stated, "Climate modelers have been 'cheating' for so long it's
almost become respectable." Through these parameterizations, GCMs attempt to
represent certain climate features reasonably well, but it is possible that they may be
getting the right numbers but have the wrong underlying reason for them. As a result,
such models' ability to simulate climate change properly would be negatively impacted.

Lately, a model has been designed and tested at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research to eliminate the flux corrections. This model better incorporates the effects of
ocean eddies, not by shrinking the scale, but by parameterization, passing the effects of
these invisible eddies onto larger model scales using a more realistic means of mixing
hear through the ocean that any earlier model did. This model doesn't drift off into chaos
even after 300 years of running. This model gives a 2oC rise in temperature due to a
CO2 doubling. (Some of the more popular GCMs assume that the concentration of CO2
will double in 70 years or quadruple in 140 years and use the assumption to try to
predict what the climate will be like in decades or even centuries based on that doubling
or quadrupling.) This figure is on the low side of estimates and puts the model's
sensitivity to greenhouse gases near the low end of current model estimates (Kerr -
Model).

GCMs are very sensitive to the representations of the effects of clouds and oceans, as
their effects are complex and not understood well. While some GCMs are being specially
made to simulate water behavior in clouds, limited vertical resolution (i.e., they don't go
up far enough) and coarse horizontal resolution (i.e., the cloud activity of large areas of
the Earth is averaged together and this average is used for the entire area) prevent even
these models from accurately covering thin clouds and some cloud formation processes.
Most early simulations were run with fixed cloud distributions based on observed cloud
cover data, but these fixed levels didn't allow any feedback between cloud distributions
and changing atmospheric/oceanic temperatures and motions. Problems in cloud
feedback are seen as the Achilles heel of GCMs. Likewise, ocean representations were
initially crude; in some early models, a swamp (stagnant, heat-absorbing, heat and
water vapor-releasing body of water) was used as the oceanic model. Later models had
a 50 meter thick slab of ocean that allowed summertime heat storage and wintertime
heat release. While not including ocean currents (caused by the movement of heat to
colder areas of ocean), these models attempted to represent seasonal responses to
temperature in the upper ocean, but the lack of currents resulted in tropical oceans
being too hot and polar regions too cold. Even today's most sophisticated,
computationally-intense climate models are still just numerically experimental
approximations of the exceedingly complex atmosphere/ocean/biosphere/cryosphere
system. And yet, these GCMs are the basis of global warming theory, if for no other
reason than the near-impossibility of conducting physical experiments at the global level
(Cotton & Pielke).

The main means of testing these mathematical models of the climate involves taking
climate data from previous years, running the programs, and seeing if the computer
results are close to the actual present climatic data. The problem there is that the data
are not exactly accurate. When the predicted global warming ranges from .5oC to 4oC,
data accuracy is important, to say the least. Satellite data (view some) is called
insubstantial by some researchers for the short length of its records, but Phil Jones
states that the shortness even of global-scale surface temperature records (about 100
years) aids the uncertainty in the field. Interestingly enough, current surface
temperature measurements have shown a .5oC warming over the past century, but
satellite measurements for the past fifteen years (satellite data has only been available
for nineteen years) shows a slight downward trend. Satellite trends in temperature vary
smoothly, while in some surface data, one region will appear to be warming while those
regions around it appear to cool. According to Dr. Roy Spencer, a NASA scientist, "We
see major excursions [from the trend] due to volcanic eruptions like [Mount] Pinatubo
and ocean current phenomena like El Nio, but overall the trend is about 0.05 degrees
Celsius per decade cooling" (Horack and Spencer). Earlier this year, it was realized that
the satellite data needed correction for orbital decay, or "downward drift," in the
satellites that cause erroneous cooling to show in the data. However, even after a careful
readjustment the trend is still 0.01oC per decade of cooling, while weather balloons
show -0.02 and -0.07oC per decade in Britain and America respectively, and British
surface data show a warming of 0.15oC per decade. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) climate model predictions estimate surface warming to be 0.18oC
per decade and warming in the deep layer measured by satellites and weather balloons
to be about 30% faster, or +0.23oC per decade. None of the satellites or weather
balloons show values anywhere near this, not even when the adjusted satellite record is
updated through July 1998 to show a trend of +0.04oC per decade, which is still only
1/6 of the IPCC-predicted rate (Spencer).

Even while the satellites may need adjustments in their data for changes in orbit, this
data is still more accurate than surface data. Satellites do not have anything in their
surroundings to skew the data. On the other hand, many sources of error exist here on
Earth. Things as seemingly minuscule as variation in the color and type of paint used for
the instrument shelters can skew data slightly, for different types and colors of paint
absorb small but differing amounts of solar radiation. As another example, the urban
heat island effect is known to make cities warmer at night and milder during the day.
The growth of urban areas during this century has resulted in a 0.4oC bias in the US
climate record, making the amount of warming appear larger than it was (Cotton and
Pielke). Thomas Karl, climatologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), demonstrated in a 1989 paper that, if surface temperatures are
corrected for the urban heat island effect, the years around 1940 emerge as the
warmest, with readings since then showing a downward trend (Crandall). If this bias
exists in the global climate data set, its use to represent a wider geographic record for
climate change studies will be misleading.

Another largely-ignored factor affecting temperature data is solar variation, or periodic

changes in the brightness of the sun based on sunspots and the like. Some climate
modelers say that the Sun only varies with an 11-year cycle, and this period is too fast
for the climate system to respond to. Hoyt points out that explosive volcanic eruptions
have a one to two year long radiative forcing which does appear to affect climate, and so
solar variance should have a substantial impact on climate. James Hansen, the famed
NASA modeler, put it this way: "Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are
well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured,
anthropogenic forcings, especally changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and other
land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming.
One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance
changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from GHGs
alone" (NASA's). Current research by Daniel Cayan and Warren White of the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography gives evidence that "the waxing and waning of the sun" may
be behind current climate change. They studied North Pacific sea surface temperatures
for the past 50 years and noticed that their pattern looked remarkably like that of
satellite records of solar irradiance (Kerr - New). Based on this, it would seem logical to
include these effects in GCMs, but few researchers do.

Moreover, any calculated warming would be reduced by this cooling effect of volcanoes.
Even though we cannot predict the occurrence of a volcanic eruption, we have sufficient
statistical information about past eruptions to estimate their average cooling effect; yet
this is one of several factors not specifically considered by the IPCC (Singer - Scientific)
and many other models.

If these models are wrong in their assumptions about climate, then everything that is
thought to be known because of them is wrong. If, however, their assumptions are right,
but essential factors or effects within the global system are being omitted from study,
then GCMs thought to be wrong may actually need only an enlightened tweaking.
Unfortunately, enlightenment is difficult to come by in this field. Many, many things are
still unknown.

Effects of Global Warming on Our Everyday Lives

Another area where uncertainty rears its head is in the realm of the "real life" effects of
global warming. The possible effects of global warming have been played out in the
media: hurricanes, plagues, a great increase in sea level, etc. Some scientists refute
these claims. But, again, since the climate models can tell us little with much certainty,
we can not know for certain if a global warming would have these effects or not.

Some researchers, such as those involved with the IPCC, claim that global warming will
lead to an increase in violent storms such as hurricanes and typhoons. But, as S. Fred
Singer points out (Scientific), warming should actually lead to a reduction in these
storms as the equator-to-pole temperature differences diminish, for it is this atmospheric
temperature heterogeneity that drives storms and makes them strong.

Record-breaking temperatures are given by others as a consequence of global warming.

But they actually are the consequence of having records to break; on an average day, 2
million square miles (the equivalent of an area 1400 miles by 1400 miles) of the Earth
are experiencing weather which breaks 100-year-old records. Indeed, the probability of
breaking a weather record is equal to 1/n, where n is the number of years for which
records exist (Hoyt).

Some, such as virologist Robert Shope, do say that warming could cause the mosquito
carrying dengue fever and yellow fever to migrate northward, causing epidemics in North
America. Cholera (which is known to live in sea-borne plankton), he says, could become
epidemic in America as changes in marine ecology favor the growth and transmission of
the pathogen. Rita Colwell, Paul Epstein, and Timothy Ford, another group of
researchers, went a step further and blamed an El Nio warming of the Pacific at least
partially for a 1991 Latin American cholera epidemic affecting 500,000 and killing almost
5,000. But cholera is known to spread from humans to other humans through food,
water, and feces; this is why cholera epidemics appear when public health and sanitation
break down. CDC medical epidemiologist Fred Angulo stated that "We had a powder keg
ready to explode, an entire continent in which the sanitation and public water supplies
and everything was primed for transmission of this organism once it was introduced,"
possibly by ships emptying bilge water near fishing areas. He adds that cholera has been
introduced into the US several times in the past few years; it didn't spread "because we
have a public health and sanitation infrastructure that prevents it."

As for the mosquito-borne diseases, epidemiologist Mark L. Wilson of the University of

Michigan-Ann Arbor says that the predictions suffer from many levels of uncertainty. No
one disputes that weather patterns have an impact: "There's reason to believe that if it's
an extremely rainy spring, summer mosquito populations will increase," but he and his
colleagues point out that no one knows just how patterns of temperature and rainfall will
change in a warmer world, or how these changes will affect the biology of diseases. Paul
Epstein has attributed Latin American dengue epidemics in 1994 and 1995 to El Nio and
global warming, but experts on dengue at the Pan American Health Organization and the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say these epidemics resulted from a
breakdown in programs to eradicate the specific species of mosquito responsible and its
subsequent return. The epidemics once caused by mosquitoes in the US have vanished
due to mosquito control, eradication programs, piped-water systems, and lifestyle
changes (we have good housing, air conditioning, and television to keep us inside, and
screens to keep the mosquitoes outside). They note as an example 1995's Mexican
dengue pandemic that stopped at the Rio Grande, with over 2000 confirmed cases in
Reynosa, Mexico, but only 7 across the river in Texas. And so it is a bit early to say, as
the IPCC did, that "climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse
impacts on human health, with significant loss of life" (Taubes).

It is interesting that there does appear to be an increase in sea level along the
coastlines. According to Robert T. Watson, IPCC chairman, "We'll see sea level rise that
could displace tens of millions of people...and whole islands...could be significantly
inundated. The shorelines of America could be severely attacked." But Dr. David Aubrey,
oceanographer and senior scientist with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in
Massachusetts, states that "I have seen no convincing evidence that recent sea level
rises are caused by human effects or global warming" (Hoyt). And even global warming
proponents' estimates have been steadily falling; initially, it was projected by the EPA
that an atmospheric CO2 doubling would cause 80-120 inches of rise, but by 1990 the
estimate was a quarter of that. In 1996, a UN science advisory panel, predicted a rise of
only 15-22 inches by 2100. Even these smaller estimates are quite uncertain, for sea
level changes are terribly difficult to measure. Historical data are based on tide gauges,
which are mainly from Northern Europe and North America. Long-term trends can be
found only after the data is adjusted for waves, storm surges, and tidal variations
(Singer - Sky). In addition, the land itself may be rising or falling. The Mid-Atlantic US
coast, for example, is falling as a bulge formed by Ice Age glaciers slowly settles,
according to the Detroit News in 1996 (Hoyt). The global sea level record as
reconstructed and adjusted shows an interesting trend: levels have been rising at about
7 inches per century for several centuries over which much fluctuation of global climate
has occurred. It is now believed that slow tectonic changes have caused the steady rise,
not the melting glaciers some global warming theorists propose. Incidentally, the World
Glacier Monitoring Service in Zurich determined that between 1926 and 1960, when the
planet was supposedly cooler than today, 70% of US and European glaciers retreated.
Since 1980, however, 55% of those same glaciers have advanced (Carlisle). This would
not support the theory that global warming is happening now, it is melting glaciers, and
that water is causing a rise in sea level. While global warming may cause mountainous
glaciers to melt and a thermal expansion of water, accelerating the natural rise, it also
may cause more water to evaporate from the surface of warmer oceans, leading to
greater rainfall and a thickening of polar icecaps. Data from the period of warming from
1900-1940 shows a sea level drop, while the subsequent cooler period showed a rise in
sea level (Singer - Sky).

Other areas of life global warming has an effect upon are those affected by attempts to
stop global warming. Some people (Clark, Kerr - Greenhouse Report) suggest that small
changes, such as using high-efficiency compact fluorescent lights, using self-powered or
public transportation more often, etc., could make a big impact on the global warming
problem (assuming it exists). This would go along with the idea expressed by some
scientists that the only actions that should be taken until there is more certainty are
those that would (or should) be taken anyway . But will people do these things if they
don't have to? Some other scientists are more pessimistic.

Greater measures are suggested by these people. As Cotton and Pielke state in Human
Impacts on Weather and Climate, "Clearly, reductions in CO2 emissions in these
countries [the US, China, and the former Soviet Union] will have a significant impact on
global CO2 emissions and reduce the chance that human activity will have a significant
impact on weather and climate." In working with such an uncertain issue, one can only
weigh one's risks, look at the costs and benefits of all alternatives, and take one's most
competent guess at what the best course of action is. In the face of all this uncertainty, I
would propose a sort of Climatologists' Wager (a variation of Pascal's Wager to this
issue). Let's assume for a moment that there is a global warming occurring. If this is
anthropogenic global warming and it will have a negative impact on climate and life,
then we must take action. If this is not anthropogenic global warming and warming will
have a negative effect on climate and life, nothing can be done. If there is no
anthropogenic global warming and the warming will not have a negative effect on
climate and life, nothing need be done. Likewise, if humans have caused the global
warming but it will not have a negative impact on climate and life, no action is
necessary.

But there is one other dimension to choosing what to do: assuming that anthropogenic
global warming is occurring and it will negatively impact climate and life, one must weigh
the costs and benefits of maintaining that risk against the costs and benefits of action.
Let us take the Kyoto Protocol as an example. President Clinton signed it on November
12, 1998, but he is waiting to give it to the Senate. This agreement, if ratified by the
Senate, would force the US to cut GHG emissions (mostly of CO2) to 7% below the 1990
levels within the next 10 to 14 years. The costs of this mandatory decrease in emissions
are substantial. Compliance would cost the US $3.3 trillion from 2001 to 2020, or
$30,000 per household. Gas prices are expected to increase by 65 cents a gallon or
more. Residents of Michigan are expected to have to pay 77.3% more for home heating
oil, 73.5% more for natural gas, and 64.2% more for electricity. Industries and
businesses will suffer. It is thought that some of the hardest hit sectors will include
energy-intensive manufacturing (such as automobiles, cement, iron, steel, chemicals,
aluminum, etc.), transportation, telecommunications, paper and allied products,
petroleum refining, and utilities. Wages and salaries would fall, while food, housing, and
medical costs rose. The state of Michigan would lose 96,500 jobs (49,800 in
manufacturing), $9.3 billion in output, and $3.4 billion in tax revenues, decreasing the
ability of the state to provide even more greatly needed social services. It is expected
that the jobless rate would reach 5.5% and 1.1 million US jobs would be lost (Novak,
Littmann).

This would be a grim picture if these changes were known to be necessary for survival.
But a far grimmer picture is one of going through all this economic hardship for an
unproven theory, and then potentially discovering that these costly changes really had a
negligible effect upon climate and life as a whole. There is no scientific understanding of
what GHG level is "dangerous." How can we, then, regulate what the level should be, not
knowing if the danger is above or below the standard we would set? For that matter,
how can the 1992 Global Climate Treaty say that its purpose is to "achieve stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Singer - Scientific)? It
also seems a bit funny that only a fast-growing, prosperous society would best be able to
afford the extra technology to make itself cleaner, healthier, and safer, but this treaty
would certainly not have that effect upon the US economy. In not sanctioning developing
countries, Kyoto almost encourages industry to move from the reasonably efficient and
well-regulated developed countries to the developing countries, which have few (if any)
regulations on pollution. S. Fred Singer has an interesting thought in "Dangers From the
Global Climate Treaty": "This [the Kyoto Protocol] has been rightly labeled a transfer of
money from the poor in the rich countries to the rich in the poor countries." Meanwhile,
climate scientists who support the anthropogenic global warming theory say that it is
unlikely that the Kyoto Protocol will even temporarily slow the accumulation of GHGs in
the atmosphere. Jerry Mahlman, director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
at Princeton, states that "it might take another 30 Kyotos over the next century" to cut
global warming down to size (Malakoff).

Fact and Fiction:

FICTION: Even if the Earth is warming, we cant be sure how much, if any, of the
warming is caused by human activities.

FACT: There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming over the last
50 years is due to human activities, not natural causes. Over millions of years, animals
and plants lived, died and were compressed to form huge deposits of oil, gas and coal.
In little more than 300 years, however, we have burned a large amount of this
storehouse of carbon to supply energy.

Today, the by-products of fossil fuel use billions of tons of carbon (in the form of
carbon dioxide), methane, and other greenhouse gases form a blanket around the
Earth, trapping heat from the sun, unnaturally raising temperatures on the ground, and
steadily changing our climate.

The impacts associated with this deceptively small change in temperature are evident in
all corners of the globe. There is heavier rainfall in some areas, and droughts in others.
Glaciers are melting, Spring is arriving earlier, oceans are warming, and coral reefs are
dying.

FICTION: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts an increase in the

global average temperature of only 1.4C to 5.8C over the coming century.
This small change, less than the current daily temperature range for most major cities, is
hardly cause for concern.

FACT: Global average temperature is calculated from temperature readings around the
Earth. While temperature does vary considerably at a daily level in any one place, global
average temperature is remarkably constant. According to analyses of ice cores, tree
rings, pollen and other climate proxies, the average temperature of the Northern
Hemisphere had varied up or down by only a few tenths of a degree Celsius between
1000 AD and about 1900, when a rapid warming began.

A global average temperature change ranging from 1.4C to 5.8C would translate into
climate-related impacts that are much larger and faster than any that have occurred
during the 10 000-year history of civilization.

From scientific analyses of past ages, we know that even small global average
temperature changes can lead to large climate shifts. For example, the average global
temperature difference between the end of the last ice age (when much of the Northern
Hemisphere was buried under thousands of feet of ice) and todays interglacial climate is
only about 5C .

FICTION: Warming cannot be due to greenhouse gases, since changes in temperature

and changes in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century did not occur
simultaneously.

FACT: The slow heating of the oceans creates a significant time lag between when
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere and when
changes in temperature occur.

This is one of the main reasons why we dont see changes in temperature at the same
time as changes in greenhouse gas emissions. You can see the same process occur in
miniature when you heat up a pot of water on the stove: there is a time lag between the
time you turn on the flame and when the water starts to boil.

In addition, there are many other factors that affect year-to-year variation in the Earths
temperature. For example, volcanic eruptions, El Nio, and small changes in the output
of the sun can all affect the global climate on a yearly basis.
Therefore, you would not expect the build-up of greenhouse gases to exactly match
trends in global climate. Still, scientific evidence points clearly to anthropogenic (or
human-made) greenhouse gases as the main culprit for climate change.

FICTION: Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere fairly quickly, so if global
warming turns out to be a problem, we can wait to take action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions until after we start to see the impacts of warming.

FACT: Carbon dioxide, a gas created by the burning of fossil fuels (like gasoline and
coal), is the most important human-made greenhouse gas.
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel use is produced in huge quantities and can persist in our
atmosphere for as long as 200 years.

This means that if emissions of carbon dioxide were halted today, it would take centuries
for the amount of carbon dioxide now in the atmosphere to come down to what it was in
pre-industrial times. Thus we need to act now if we want to avoid the increasingly
dangerous consequences of climate change in the future.

FICTION: Human activities contribute only a small fraction of carbon dioxide emissions,
an amount too small to have a significant effect on climate, particularly since the oceans
absorb most of the extra carbon dioxide emissions.

FACT: Before human activities began to dramatically increase carbon dioxide levels in
the atmosphere, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from natural sources closely
matched the amount that was stored or absorbed through natural processes.
For example, as forests grow, they absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through
photosynthesis; this carbon is then sequestered in wood, leaves, roots and soil. Some
carbon is later released back to the atmosphere when leaves, roots and wood die and
decay.

Carbon dioxide also cycles through the ocean Plankton living at the oceans surface
absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis. The plankton and animals that eat the
plankton then die and fall to the bottom of the ocean. As they decay, carbon dioxide is
released into the water and returns to the surface via ocean currents. As a result of
these natural cycles, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air had changed very little for
10,000 years. But that balance has been upset by man.

Since the Industrial Revolution, the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil has put
about twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than is naturally removed by
the oceans and forests. This has resulted in carbon dioxide levels building up in the
atmosphere.

Today, carbon dioxide levels are 30% higher than pre-industrial levels, higher than they
have been in the last 420,000 years and are probably at the highest levels in the past 20
million years. Studies of the Earths climate history have shown that even small, natural
changes in carbon dioxide levels were generally accompanied by significant shifts in the
global average temperature.

We have already experienced a 1F increase in global temperature in the past century,

and we can expect significant warming in the next century if we fail to act to decrease
greenhouse gas emissions.

FICTION: The Earth has warmed rapidly in the past without dire consequences, so
society and ecosystems can adapt readily to any foreseeable warming.

FACT: The Earth experienced rapid warming in some places at the end of the last glacial
period, but for the last 10,000 years our global climate has been relatively stable. During
this period, as agriculture and civilization developed, the worlds population has grown
tremendously. Now, many heavily populated areas, such as urban centers in low-lying
coastal zones, are highly vulnerable to climate shifts.

In addition, many ecosystems and species that are already threatened by existing
pressures (such as pollution, habitat conversion and degradation) may be further
pressured to the point of extinction by a changing climate.

FICTION: The buildup of carbon dioxide will lead to a greening of the Earth because
plants can utilize the extra carbon dioxide to speed their growth.

FACT: Carbon dioxide has been shown to act as a fertilizer for some plant species under
some conditions. In addition, a longer growing season (due to warmer temperatures)
could increase productivity in some regions.

However, there is also evidence that plants can acclimatize to higher carbon dioxide
levels that means plants may grow faster for only a short time before returning to
previous levels of growth.

Another problem is that many of the studies in which plant growth increased due to
carbon dioxide fertilization were done in greenhouses where other nutrients, which
plants need to survive, were adequately supplied.

In nature, plant nutrients like nitrogen as well as water are often in short supply. Thus,
even if plants have extra carbon dioxide available, their growth might be limited by a
lack of water and nutrients. Finally, climate change itself could lead to decreased plant
growth in many areas because of increased drought, flooding and heat waves.

Whatever benefit carbon dioxide fertilization may bring, it is unlikely to be anywhere

near enough to counteract the adverse impacts of a rapidly changing climate.

FICTION: If Earth has warmed since pre-industrial times, it is because the intensity of
the sun has increased.

FACT: The suns intensity does vary. In the late 1970s, sophisticated technology was
developed that can directly measure the suns intensity. Measurements from these
instruments show that in the past 20 years the suns variations have been very small.

Indirect measures of changes in suns intensity since the beginning of the industrial
revolution in 1750 show that variations in the suns intensity do not account for all the
warming that occurred in the 20th century and that the majority of the warming was
caused by an increase in human-made greenhouse gas emissions.

FICTION: It is hard enough to predict the weather a few days in advance. How can we
have any confidence in projections of climate a hundred years from now?

FACT: Climate and weather are different. Weather refers to temperatures, precipitation
and storms on a given day at a particular place. Climate reflects a long-term average,
sometimes over a very large area, such as a continent or even the entire Earth.

Averages over large areas and periods of time are easier to estimate than the specific
characteristics of weather.
For example, although it is notoriously difficult to predict if it will rain or the exact
temperature of any particular day at a specific location, we can predict with relative
certainty that on average, in the Northeastern United States, it will be colder in
December than in July.

In addition, climate models are now sophisticated enough to be able to recreate past
climates, including climate change over the last hundred years. This adds to our
confidence that projections of future climates are accurate.

Finally, when we report climate projections, we use a range of results from climate
models that represent the boundaries of our projections (whats the least global average
temperature could change to whats the most global average temperature could change)
and our degree of certainty of the projections.

FICTION: The science of global climate change cannot tell us the amount by which man-
made emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced in order to slow global warming.

FACT: The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change states that emissions of
greenhouse gases should be reduced to avoid dangerous interference with the climate
system. Scientists have subsequently attempted to define what constitutes dangerous
interference.
One study (ONeill and Oppenheimer, 2002) supplies three criteria that could be used:

1) risk to threatened ecosystems such as coral reefs

2) large-scale disruptions caused by changes in the climate system, such as sea-level

rise caused by the break-up of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and

3) large-scale disruptions of the climate system itself, such as the shutdown of the
thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (the Gulf stream), which would result in a
severe drop in temperature to Europe.

This study projects that if C02 concentrations are capped at 450 parts per million (ppm),
major disruptions to climate systems may be avoided, although some damage (such as
that to coral reefs) may be unavoidable.

Current estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations likely to be reached without

aggressive action to limit greenhouse gas emissions are far higher from 550 ppm to as
much as 1000 ppm in the next hundred years.

FICTION: Because of the uncertainty of climate models, it is extremely difficult to predict

exactly what regional impacts will result from global climate change.

FACT: According to the IPCC, certain climate trends are highly likely to occur if
greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate or increase: sea level will rise;
droughts will increase in some areas, flooding in others; temperatures will rise, leading
to heat waves becoming more common and glaciers likely to melt at a more rapid rate.

Regional impacts are very likely to occur, but exactly when and what they will be is
harder to predict.

This is because:

1) regional climate models are more computer intensive than global climate models
they take longer to run and are more difficult to calibrate, and

2) many non-climate factors contribute to impacts at regional levels. For example, the
risk of mosquito-borne illnesses like Dengue fever and malaria may rise due to increased
temperatures, but the actual likelihood of infection will depend greatly on the
effectiveness of public health measures in place.

A Better World Climate: How Do We Get There From Here?

As has been stated previously, there are a great many unanswered questions about
global warming. We wonder whether or not there really is an anthropogenic global
warming or the threat of one because we don't have the perfect climate model to tell us
so. And we don't have this model because we don't understand what is going on; we
don't understand how the atmospheric system interacts with the oceans, the terrestrial
biosphere, the cryosphere, or any of its other contributing factors. Therefore, the
research that should be first and foremost in our minds is that to better understand the
rich interrelationships between these bodies as well as the various features of each that
may not be well understood. The effect of clouds, for example, on warming and vice
versa are not understood very well. Do they simply cool by reflecting heat back to space,
or is their role more complex than that? What effect does each shape and size of cloud
have? What outside factors have an effect upon cloud formation? And, most importantly,
how can we best relate these effects into GCMs?

Likewise, aerosols are in need of study. Do they simply cause cooling by reflecting solar
radiation back out into space, or, as one researcher stated, is that effect canceled out by
heating through reflection of terrestrial radiation back to earth and give their real cooling
effect by fortifying clouds with water droplets, giving them a higher albedo?

Are variations in solar radiation and sunspot cycles behind part or all of the perceived
global warming? Could there be changes in the sun's energy output that would cause
warming such as some have observed?

How does the tropical ocean interact with global atmospheric circulation, given that
tropical cyclones (hurricanes) form there? Are there any special processes at work there
that would affect the global warming theory? Likewise, how do the atmosphere, the
ocean, and sea ice interact at high latitudes?

What, exactly, is the terrestrial biosphere's place in the carbon cycle? How much CO2
does different types of vegetation, soil, or rock absorb? If CO2 is shown to be a
substantial problem, would there be any way to make parts of the terrestrial biosphere
take on more CO2? What effect would that have on the various ecosystems involved?

And on and on the potential questions go. As can be seen above, there are a lot of
different directions global warming research can go in and is going in. All of these would
be helpful in trying to better determine the climatic direction we as a planet are headed
in. But there is one other dimension to this attempt to better understand global
warming: the modeling. Currently, even the most sophisticated and encompassing of the
GCMs is incredibly crude and oversimplified compared to the actual atmospheric system
and its feedbacks. And so, given new findings in research related to above topics and
others, we must continue to update the models. We must keep working on the models,
improving them, until flux corrections or "fudge factors," as they are called, are
unnecessary to make them properly predict today's conditions. As computer technologies
continually become smaller and faster and more capable of complex systems, we must
keep shrinking the scale of the models and bringing in more variables to account for or
better, more detailed understanding of the existing variables. To have a perfect model,
every variable, every ocean eddy and sulfate particle would have to be accounted for.
While this is improbable as a state of modeling, we can continue to try to better explain
what is going on and how things are connected and interrelated by bringing bigger and
better understandings of atmospheric intricacies to the modeling table.

Unfortunately for these global climate change researchers, the computer industry is not
moving nearly fast enough for this research. In many ways, climatologists are waiting on
the computer industry to build more powerful supercomputers so they can make more
complex models to take advantage of that computing power. And yet, there is at least a
small advantage to waiting: many valuable studies being conducted with innovative,
legitimate methods simply haven't been collecting data long enough to be as useful as
possible. Satellite data is a good example of this. If we wait, the data will be better.

And so, we can see that the science behind global warming is far from settled. Much is
not known and conflicting theories abound, as they often do in scientific forums. New
ideas and new studies keep the science of global climate change going, keep it second
guessing itself, keep it looking for newer, better ways to explain what's going on. In the
end, global climate change may be a way for science to prove it can work well even
under the most uncertain of circumstances.
Poverty in Pakistan
A. Introduction
B. Poverty Condition in Pakistan
C. Definition
1. According to Homer
2. According Jean Guenon
3. Poverty line
D. International Organizations Reports about poverty in Pakistan
1. UNDP (United Nations Development Program) Report
2. World Bank
3. Asian Development Bank Report
4. Pakistans Planning Commission Report
E. Causes/Reasons of poverty in Pakistan
1. Government Policies
2. Poor governance
3. Judiciary System
4. Unemployment
5. Overpopulation
6. Education
7. Corruption
8. Division of Agricultural Land
9. Materialism
10. Large Scale Import
11. Law and Order
12. Fluctuated Foreign investment
13. Privatization
14. Moral Culture
15. Political Instability
F. Solutions/Remedies to overcome Poverty in Pakistan
1. Boost agriculture
2. Construction industry
3. Unequal access to input and output markets
4. Controlling of inflation and other economic indicators and regulators
5. Maintaining law and order situation in order to protect economic activities
6. Promote industrialization
7. Provision of job opportunities
8. Merit should be the upshot strategy in all walks of life
9. Equal distribution of resources
10. Establishment of justice and equality
G. Conclusion

Introduction
The word poverty derived from Latin word pauper means poor. Poverty refers to the
condition of not having the means to afford basic human needs such as clean water,
nutrition, health care, clothing and shelter. Poverty is the condition of having fewer
resources or less income than others within a society or country, or compared to
worldwide averages. Poverty is one of the major social problems which Pakistan is
facing. It is one of the most important and sensitive issue not only for Pakistan but for
the whole world. Poverty can cause other social problems like theft, bribe, corruption,
adultery, lawlessness, injustice etc.

It is the fundamental duty and responsibility of the country to fulfill the basic needs of its
people. Basic needs of man comprises of shelter, food and clothing. When these needs
are not fulfilled they bring about problems termed as socio-economic problems. Pakistan
has also been suffering from these problems. The real issue is not the presence of these
problems in the society. But the extent to which they are being paid attention and
solved. When these problems are not met timely the results in the form of deviant
behavior, drug abuse, smuggling, corruption, poverty, illiteracy and many other social
evils.
Poverty Condition in Pakistan
Poverty has been one of the biggest problems that Pakistan faces today. It is rightly said
that poverty anywhere is a threat to prosperity everywhere. Nearly 60 per cent of the
population of Pakistan lives in villages. According to an analysis, poverty has increased
roughly from 30% to 40% during the past decade. It means that 40 per cent of the
countrys population is earning their livelihood below the poverty line. In such condition
people are depressed of their basic necessities of life. Proper education and medicine are
becoming distant from them. They are forced to think of their survival only of due to
poverty and unemployment, parents instead of sending their children to schools, prefer
child labor for them. They make them do so to support their family and use them as
earning hands from the early age.

Definition
A situation in which a person or household lacks the resources necessary to be able to
consume a certain minimum basket of goods. The basket consists either of food,
clothing, housing and other essentials (moderate poverty) or of food alone (extreme
poverty).The most common method used to define poverty is income-based.

According to Homer
This is misery! The last, the worst that man can feel.

According Jean Guenon

He is poor who doesn't have enough; he is poorer who cannot get enough".

A person is considered poor if his or her income level falls below some minimum level
necessary to meet basic needs. This minimum level is usually called the poverty line.

International Organizations Reports about poverty in Pakistan

UNDP (United Nations Development Program) Report

According to a UNDP report, 65.5 percent population of Pakistan earns less than 2$ per
day.

SPDC (Social Policy Development Centre) Report

According to the SPDC, 88 percent of Baluchistans population, 51 percent of NWFP, 21
percent of Sindh and 25 percent of Punjabs population is prey to poverty and
deprivation.

World Bank Report

According to the 2011 statistics of the World Bank, due to the global financial recession
poverty ratio is increased especially of USA and the EU countries have pushed millions of
people around the world into deeper poverty. Almost 40% of 107 developing countries
are highly exposed to the poverty. Pakistan is ranked among the 43 countries who are
most exposed to poverty.

Asian Development Bank Report

According to the ADB report, poverty is spreading in Pakistan due to the rising
population, Pakistans internal situation, agriculture backwardness, unequal income
distribution, defiance expenditure, and increase in utility charges and rise in
unproductive activities.

Pakistans Planning Commission Report

Pakistans Planning Commission (2011), poverty rate has jumped from 23.9 to 37.5
percent in the last three years. The commission has estimated that in 2007 there were
35.5 million people living below the poverty line but in 2010 their number increased to
over 64 million.

Causes/Reasons of poverty in Pakistan

It is difficult to point out all causes of poverty in Pakistan but the major causes of are
given below:

1. Government Policies
Government is not well aware of present conditions of country. The policies of
government are based on the suggestions of officials which do not have awareness about
the problems of a common man. After implementation of the policies do not get effective
result. After the failure of one policy, government does not consider its failure and
announces another policy without studying the aftermaths of last one. Heavy taxes and
unemployment crushes the people and they are forced to live below poverty line. The
suitable medical facilities are not provided to people and they are forced to get
treatment for private clinics which are too costly.

2. Education
Education sector plays a very vital role in the progress of any country. Unfortunately, the
condition of education sector in Pakistan is very miserable. The lack of quality education
our country is unable of dealing with the challenges of the 21st century. Due to poverty
people are unable to afford quality education for their children. In addition, governments
negligence is frustrating the situation further. Even though various steps taken by
different governments for the promotion of education, literacy rate lingers at 56% over
the decade. Owing to low investment, government run schools are poor of basic facilities
like proper classrooms, water and sanitation facilities, electricity. Private sector is doing
an admirable job in this regard. But the money making objective of this sector,
education has been beyond poors reach. The primary completion rate in Pakistan given
by UNESCO is 33.8 % in females and 47% in males, which shows that people in the 6th
largest country of the world are unable to get the basic education.

3. Overpopulation
Pakistan is facing the dragon of overpopulation. The growth rate of Pakistan is very high
and is among the highest in the world. Since 1947, the population has become more
than triple. Pakistan is almost touching 180 million marks. Population expansion has
been a real issue of concern for all governments. With limited resources it is very difficult
to control the growing population. There is a great economic disparity among the people.
Poor are committing suicides out of hunger while rich are busy in buildup more and more
wealth. These social problems directly affect the masses. The massively increasing
population has almost outstripped the resources in production, facilities and in job
opportunities.

4. Unemployment
Pakistan is poorly faced with the problem of unemployment. The existing unemployment
rate is 15%. Thousands of young doctors, engineers and other educated people are out
of job. There are no opportunities for youth to utilize their capabilities or abilities in right
direction. Pakistan is facing the problem of brain drain due to unemployment because we
are unable to utilize their precious hands in the progress of the country. The most
horrible part is that it is rising every year it will show to be risky for the economy of
Pakistan. It has negative impact on society. It creates frustration and revengeful
attitude. It leads to an increase in the incidences of crimes.
5. Judiciary System
Justice delayed is justice denied. Timely justice is the core value of a welfare society. It
is the duty of the state to promote justice. But in the case of Pakistan it has always been
a day dream for the poor masses. Since the independence judiciary has been in prison at
the hands of establishment. Weak judiciary has been unable to redress the grievances of
the masses. Under such conditions people choice to violent actions and resolve their
issues by extreme methods.

6. Poor governance
Owing to poor governance, the government is losing control over law and order
situation. When individuals put themselves in front of institutions, they set a bad
example. Suicide attacks, target killing, robbery and other crimes have become norm of
the day. And government seems helpless in this regard.

7. Corruption
Corruption has become a major threat to Pakistani society because of four important
reasons. First, the image of Pakistan has enormously suffered in the past few decades or
so as the corrupt practices while awarding contracts, the launching of foreign funded
projects and money laundering done by high level officials earned a bad name for the
country.
In 1996, transparency international a Berlin based civil society organization, rated
Pakistan as the second most corrupt country in the world. The report TI was a source of
great shame for Pakistan was it not shattered the countrys image but also discouraged
foreign donors to support Pakistan in its developmental projects. When the culture of
greed resulting into taking commission from foreign companies and agencies deepened,
the trust and confidence of the world diminished. According to TIs national corruption
perception NCP Survey 2010 there occurs widespread corruption in Pakistan from 195
billion rupees in 2009 to 223 billion rupees in 2010.

Some of the most corrupt institutions and areas in Pakistan identified by TI are: police,
power sector, land administration, communications, education, local government,
judiciary, health, taxation and custom. According to TIs survey, there has taken place
manifold increase in corruption in the present government than the previous one.
Neither foreign national nor over-seas Pakistanis who may be interested in investing in
this country are simply discouraged when they encounter large-scale corruption in the
shape of bribery and kickbacks.

8. Division of Agricultural Land

Pakistan is an agricultural country. Most of people are farmers by profession. One has
land which is fulfilling the needs of his family but he has to divide the land into his
children when they got young. After division the land is not sufficient to support a family.
Now the families of his children are suffering and spending their lives below poverty line.

9. Materialism
In our society social bonding are gradually becomes thinner and thinner. A race of
material object has been started even no one tried to understand the problems of
others. Everyone is gradually changing from human to a bioman which only know about
his needs and have no concept about the limitations of others. People are not ready to
help each other. At last everyone has lost his trust on others which affect our social and
economic system and it is another cause of poverty.

10. Large Scale Import

The import of Pakistan is greater than export. Big revenue is consumed in importing
good every year, even raw material has to import for industry. If we decrease import
and establish own supply chains from our country natural resources the people will have
better opportunities to earn.

11. Law and Order

There are lot of problems regarding law and order. Terrorist attacks create uncertainty in
stock markets and people earning from stock are getting loss due to which the whole
country faces uncertain increase in commodity prices.

12. Fluctuated Foreign investment

Foreign investor comes to local markets. They invest millions of dollars in stock markets
and stock market gets rise in index. Then the investor withdraws his money with profit
and market suddenly collapses. The after math always is faced by poor people.

13. Privatization
Government is unable to manage the departments and country has low reserve assets.
So the meet the requirements some companies run by government are sold to foreign
investors. The commodities or services provided by the companies are becoming costly.
For example if government sold a gas plant then prices for gas in country rises.

14. Moral Culture

The main reason for poverty is the social dishonesty and irresponsible behavior of
people. Everyone is trying to get rich by using unfair means. A shop keeper is ready to
get whole money from the pocket of customer. People doing jobs are not performing
their duties well. In society the man considered brave or respectful who do not pay taxes
or continuously violate the laws. This irresponsible behavior continuously increases and
produces loss for county.

15. Political Instability

Pakistan has been facing political crisis from its birth (1947) till now. From 1947 to 2010,
In this long period many government changed but unfortunately they all could not
Maintain the political environment stable, after ruling 1, 2 or three year that
governments politically instable. Political instability is a situation when the uncertainty
among the government structure expand due to some basic causes and it eventually end
up the current government1. Armys frequent interventions have never given democracy
a fair chance to flourish in our country. Our political leaders are also responsible for this
predicament. They have always tried to achieve their vested interests in the garb of
politics. They have never respected the norms of democracy. Judiciary has also been the
victim of such political instability. Thats why; our country has failed to develop healthy
political institutions, a lasting democracy and impartial judiciary.
Solutions/Remedies to Overcome the Poverty in Pakistan

Policies regarding poverty reduction Marshaled by different government could not

calculate the desire results. Crudely speaking, this is the gravest problem being faced by
Pakistani nation, if not handled with diligent care and implicit faith, will swell and devour
the entire mechanism of the state. For a welfare state to get stronger, policies as
regards development of poor strata should be the top of the checklists behold a time
when we shall be steadily hauling our downtrodden economy towards heights, provided
that we chalk out such policies that not only project the welfare of effected spots but
also transpose their outlook .I propose following measures for extermination of this
menace

1.Promote industrialization
2.Replacement of the traditional agricultural equipment with new scientific equipments in
order to increase the yield.
3. Establishment of justice and equality
4. Equal distribution of resources
6. Merit should be the upshot strategy in all walks of life
7. Elimination of discriminatory policies
6. Controlling of inflation and other economic indicators and regulators.
8. Developing investment friendly environment
9.Giving more feasibilities and concessions to the foreign investors
10.Dumping extremism and feudalism
11.Establishing more and more technical institute in order to get people well skilled.
12. Prevalence of education
13. Provision of job opportunities
14. Division of agricultural lands among tenants.

Conclusion
Leadership has got central importance here; with proper planning and good government
policies the problem can be solved. All they need to do is to appoint competent and wall
qualified economists to help them tackle this issue and obviously their sincerity for its
solution cannot be ignored as well. A country economy is the backbone of its country
with its solution when it is saved many problems will automatically. Alone leadership is
not enough for its solution. People of Pakistan have too got responsibility with equal
share. People need to cooperate fully with government and should be sincere with their
own country and put all their energies for eradication of poverty.