to understand the water conflict, we need to understand the Indus water treaty

Indus water treaty signed in 1960, qorld bank is arbitrator in this treaty

Eastern rivers are of India ehile western is of Pakistan i.e INDUS, Jehlum , Chenab

India was not allowed to uses water of western rivers from 1960 till 1980

India could not build dams on western rivers

From 1980 onward, India can use the western rivers for hydral generation

India can consume 10% of Indus river and can use the other rivers for hydral production only

India cannot divert the flow of western rivers by making canals, barrages or spill ways

The height and size of the dam project must be approved from Pakistan

As height and size both increase the storage capacity of the dam and will decrease the amount of water
coming to Pakistan

In case the conflict cannot resolve by both countries than issue can be tackle by International court of
Arbitrary and world bank court of dispute settlement

After every 6 months India is bound to allow the Pakistani inspectors to inspect the ongoing projects
upstream

Almost 50% cut in the flow of Indus river, 55% cut in Chenab river and Almost 50% cut in Jehlum river

Reason of Decline in flow of river :

The flow of the river is subsequently decline due to climate change, as the amount of rain fall is decline

Pakistan Arguemnt against the statement:

Climate change is a contributor in declining the flow but rain fall is not the major contributors rain fall
only contribute 35% of the overall water in western river

Main contributor of western rivers is melting of glaciers

As due to climate change the melting of glacier is speed up so the amount of water has to be increases
in the rivers

Real reasons of decline in flow are

1. Building dams on western rivers with structural violation by India

2. Increasing number of small dams like Kishan Ganga, buglihar, salal, dulhasti, pak dual, Ratlee etc

Kishan ganga damn height is 33 feet more than allowed height – souce ICA

3. India diverge the water through barrages I e wuller barrage and also formed spillways on the
main stream
Dependency of Pakistan on these 3 rivers :

Almost 80% of Agriculture of Punjab and sindh is dependant in these three rivers

25-30% of Pakistan domestic dependence in these three rivers

30% water need for industrial purposes (water, cement, leather etc industries)

Solutions:

Building damns to store the water to fulfill the water requirement

IN ICA 2013 and WB 2017, India asked Pakistan about the water need

As we do not have much dams so Pakistan waste lot of water into the sea so Pakistan was unable to
provide the date to the WB or ICA

We have to increase the water need by making dams, make domestic projects

The more the dams the lesser the India can violet the treaty

As we made number of project like neeleum Jehlum project which stop india to divert the flow

Pakistan need to adopt proactive approach or comprehensive policy to stop India by making violation

So Pakistan has to start timely inspection on the ongoing water project to achieve the actual data of
violation

Geneva convention on river donot allow to make dams

Pakistan has o use all the International mediums to stop India in making violation

The water life of Pakistan is dependant in these three rivers, if there would a war in between India and
Pakistan will be basis on water and it could be a nuclear war

To avoid the war necessary steps has to be taken to stop India in making violation

WHY WE NEED DAMS:

to increase water life of Pakistan we need dams

what is water life? the need of water for agriculture, domestic and industrial sector
Need and availability of water:

rivers are the source

rivers are the source

more than 67 % of water is contributed by melting of the glaciers, 33% by rainfall (WORLD BANK)

THIRD SOURCE IS UNDERGROUND WATERR TABLE

4TH IS WATER RESERVOIRS i.e., Dams

water availability for our needs' fulfilment is water life

Pakistan is water scare country having a water life of 33 days by rivers and dams

If melting of glaciers don’t occur after 33 days, the dam go dry to a dead kevel within 33 days.

Further examples:

Urban centers are accused if increased water shortages

e.g, Karachi’s need is 11 million gallon per day (state bank of Pakistan

Pakistan bureau of statistics)

11 million is need, 7 million is available and 2 million is stolen by tanker mafia

Urban centers are water scarce e.g. in Islamabad rawal lake, underground water

Rural areas are thar, thal , Cholistan also majority of areas are also water scarce especially desert areas.

Floods, rainfall and water scarcity are the issues for crops bad yield

More than 80 % of domestic dependency is on the underground water and more than 35% of agriculture
dependency on underground water along with increasing industrial dependency as well leading decline
in underground water

SOLUTIONS:

Rainfall (disturbed due to Global warming)

may June July august water level is high and remaining months its low

hence,

1-aquifers are required leading to increase in the water level

2-Plantation to key the water seep down

yet permanent solution is to build water reservoirs
Kala bagh dam 22 days,

Diamer Basha damn will increase 18 days

Mumand dam will increase 5 days in water life

 WB set standards that If a country is having a water life of 100+ days than the country is in safe
zone and below it is in dangerous days, India has 120 days (by WB), China has 350+ day

CONSTRUCT DAMS, in last 30 years it has constructed more than 200+

 3000+ by China
 And Pakistan in last 50 years not a single major dam

ANOTHER REASON:

 To increase the agricultural production of a country we need dams

 Pakistan is an agrarian economy, more than 19+ % contribute to the economy (gdp) of country
(ECONOMIC SURVEY)
 More than 60% of jobs in rural area link with it
 In 1960s/ 70s agriculture/ green revolution occurred in Pakistan:
1. construction of canal system revolutionized by getting loan from WB
2. building 2 major reservoirs terbela and mangla leading green revolution resulting in
industrialization also

for the past 50+ years Pakistan neither built dams au r new canal, and on the contrary existing dam
system deteriorated due to its aging

e.g., Pakistan was one of the major cotton, and seasonal crops 25%+ cotton is imported we used to
export before

now we have to import wheat sugarcane and agricultural anemities

decline due to floods, no storage, insufficient dams

SOLUTIONS: (to promote agriculture)

1. Improve canal systems

 2. Water distribution pattern should be improved by avoiding flood irrigation
3. Selection of wrong crops e.g. sugarcane, rice
4. Primary and secondary canals have ample water level nut tertiary canals have less water level
hance it should be on volume based rather than time based
5. Drip irrigation system (modern irrigation system)
6. Improve governance
7. BULIT RESEVOIRS (major solution)

HOW?

E.g., Diamer Basha: if completed it would add 1.3-million-acre land in irrigation

Mumand damn would add 300 thousand

Dassu would add more than 300 thousand d acre

Southern Punjab and KP via kala Bagh, chashma right bank canal 2 to southern KP along with the interior
Sindh

Resultantly increases 24% in the agricultural production of the country (Irrigation depart: source)

HYDAL IRRIGATION CAPACITY: we need dams because.

More than 60% of electricity is produced by hydrocarbons oil and gas, our production cost is expensive
due to costly electricity, hence our industry is not being promoted.

Hence, we need to move to cheaper and renewable electricity, Pakistan is one of the 5 th worst effectee
of Climate change

We need to work on wind, solar and hydel but the major one is hydro-electric projects

Kalabagh and Diamer 48,00 megawatt electricity, and will add 800, Dassu would add 4300, Sukki kinnari
would add 890 MW, Karoate 700 MW will be added

The cost would go above 4 rupees, till 2027, 15000 MW would be added to the systems through hydro
electric projects, since last 70 years we’ve built 12, 000 MW but in these 10 years it’ll be 15000 MW,
leading to the substantial decline the cost.

TO REDUCE FLOOD INTENSITY, WE NEED DAMS:

2 types of floods,

1. Urban floods,
2. Floods across the country

 EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS: In 2020, 93 years record broke in Karachi of rainfall. Due to excessive rainfall,
in river Swat as well in 2010
 DUR TO INCREASED GLACIER MELTING: due to global warming in May, June, July, August
 WHEN INDIA RELEASES MORE WATER: from western (ours Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) as well as eastern
rivers (Ravi)
 DEFORESTATION: soil’s absorption capacity declines, in coastal belt, Malakand division, Punjab
(changa Manga jungle)

How to stop urban floods?

1. Underground water tanks to be constructed, globally adopted technique

2. Proper cleansing of existing canal systems especially in Lahore and Karachi due to weak local
government and district management committees and less provision n of funds, land-grabbing
e.g., Maleer canal has been constructed over with 35000 houses which should be removed.
3. Plantation: more it is, lesser floods due to more water absorption e.g., billion tree tsunami
4. Build water reservoirs/ dams
5. Kalabagh construction will lead to almost negligible chances of flood in Indus basin due to 10-
million-acre feet volume, Mumand damn would give more than 60 % reduced chanced of floods
in swat river, due to collection of 1.3-million-acre feet

DISADVANTAGES DUE TO FLOOD:

 More than 200 billion rupees loss in 2010 floods (economic survey of Pakistan), roads
demolished, railway, tracks buildings, electric lines, agriculture etc., all get effected
 75% of Karachi was under water for more than a week
 HENCE, WE NEED DAMS

TO STOP THE WASTAGE OF WATER WE NEED DAMS: in Asia Pakistan wastes the most water, 25–26-
million-acre water is wasted into the sea. Water comes in Pakistan in May, June, July august due glacier
melting and monsoon rains, influx is more in those 4 months and need is less and we don’t have any
reservoirs or storages therefore we flush out the water in the sea, Pakistan is coastal country hence
inland incursion due to the sea, we need to throw out water In strategic, land and time. We need to
distribute the disposal of water properly.

 The water we throw out is tremendously more which is also unproductive

 India is successfully exploited this weak point of ours (HOW):
 India is building the dams on the western side, it’s ours
 If the lower riparian need is less and it’s wasting the water than the upper riparian (India) can
consume the water belonging to the lower riparian (Pakistan) by International law.
 HENCE, we need to build dams, 80% of water violation can be reduced by India only by
production of Diamer and Kalabagh
 Pakistan should build dams not only on the main rivers but to also store rainfall
 It shouldn’t only mega or medium sized projects but also small sized projects as well 450+ in KP,
50+ in Baluchistan, 10+ sites in AJK

HURDLES IN CONSTRUCTION:

 due to budget deficit, hence always lesser allocations for developmental projects
  1400 billion rupees in Diamer, 7 billion $ in Dassu, 3 billion $ on Mumand are required to be
spent

 We have to attract investors, Dassu is under construction by a Chinese company and WB,
similarly Mumand is made by DISCON and a Chinese company, also 25% cost will be bore by the
government itself, 43% WAPDA will contribute, majority of dams are built by Chinese and hence
we have to attract investors. We need will of the state above all
 In last 30 years china made 3000+, India 200+ and we didn’t make even one proving no will of
the government
 Not just political governments rather dictators as well had the same attitude
 Diamer basha was inaugurated 4 times, 2004, 11, 14, 20. Actual construction got started in 2020
 Now 3 mega and a series of small dam s are under construction due to will of state

Indus water treaty:

 Eastern rivers belong India, western belong to Pakistan

 India can use the water of western rivers for hydal generation, it can build the water reservoir,
but they should be on the run of the river without any diversion
 Before construction India has to send the blueprints to Pakistan for approval and Pakistan can
raise questions regarding, construction, areas and designs
 Wooler barrage, Tulbul barrage, etc. are made by India with questionable structures
 The matter has to be referred to the WB court of dispute settlement and international court of
arbitration are supposed to be referred to in case both countries are having a dispute

PROBLEMS: the abnormal decline in the flow of the western rivers, due to:

1. In river channel the flow was declined by 54%

2. Terbela and mangla are highly responsible 25%+ domestic dependency etc.
3. India says the flow has declined due to rainfall, climate change and global warming, whereas
we counter it by saying that rainfall is not the reason, by WB 67% water is contributed by
the glacier melting, in previous 3 years the melting is increased hence water should als
increase rather than decrease but thewater has decreased.
4. Kishan ganga, buglihaar, salaal, dul-hasti, pak dual, ratlee etc been build by india due to
decrease in the flow
5. Similarly, wullar and Thulbul barrage has been constructed by India to divert the flow

SOLUTIONS:

1. Pakistan must build dams, sooner and more in number

2. Water requirement of the country will increase once the dams are constructed leading to lesser
violations
 3. We have to construct sooner, we have already delayed more than 50 years

4. Pakistan must fight the water case against India with absolute preparation:

1- We need to inspect properly

2- Legal experts, rivers and dams experts should fight not the bureaucrats e.g., in 2017, Indian
team had experts and Pakistan had bureaucrat and politicians, hence we should have right
men for the right job
3- More than 400 agreements occurred in last 100 years, study and reinforce their case,
Geneva convention, agreements on upper and lower riparian

These violations can lead to a war and the war will be nuclear between both countries (USA PRESIDENT
OBAMA)

PAK-AFGHAN water conflict:

 Afghanistan has started 2 projects shalma and shah toot dam on Kabul river leading to the
decrement in the flow, key investor in salma dam is India also called as india Afghanistan
friendship dam
 Hence India has waged water war on both eastern as well western border
 Afghanistan has been having tensed relations with Pakistan since last 2 decades or so
1 Taliban factor, refugee, crisis, Durand line crisis
 Afghanistan has close relations with India, has given 3 billion $ in donations, training of Afghan
army, construction of roads and dams
 Dependency: major river is Kabul river, small rivers Gomel River Tochi river Khurram river floats
from Afghanistan to Pakistan. our dependency is:
Wardak dam on Kabul river
Gomal zaam on Gomal rover
Kurram tangi dam is under construction on Khurram river
The agriculture on the tribal belt
The agriculture of Peshawar and merged districts Banu, lakki marwat and DI Khan are
dependent on these rivers

 Domestic dependency: more than 50% + population live at the banks of these rivers of merged
districts

SOLUTIONS:

1- Pakistan must enter into a water agreement with Afghanistan, sooner the better
2- Without leaving the loopholes that were in Indus water treaty
3- Built water reservoirs e.g., kurram tungi
4- Agriculture needs to be increased by enhancing agricultural needs
5- Improve relations with Afghanistan by playing a leading role in afghan peace process