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Current Affairs

Contents
Why we need dams? ........................................................................................................................ 1
Importance of Karachi? ................................................................................................................... 4
Pak-India Water Conflict ................................................................................................................. 6

Why we need dams?

Some basic purposes to build dams are:

• To increase water life in country

• To increase hydro-electricity
• To increase agricultural production yields
• To reduce intensity of floods we need dams
1. To increase water life in country
To increase the water life of Pakistan we need to build dams. The more the water life of a
country the stable the country is due to strong economy. The country’s water life is based on
rivers but in river, across the year, flow of water is highest in 4 months May, June, July and
August when excessive monsoon rainfall occurs. Almost 80% of water in these 4 months is
flushed out in sea. This results in flood. Another reason for flood is smelting of the glaciers.
Under-ground water in Pakistan has excessive utilization:

• 80% domestic usage is based on underground water

• 30% agriculture usage is based on underground water
• More than 30 % industrial usage is based on underground water
The largest water contributor to increase water life would be dams. Other countries have more
water life than required. India has water storage capacity of 120 days, China 350 days, Canada
450 days, US 900 days and Egypt 1000 days. Pakistan, on the other hand, has water storage
capacity of 32 days only (Report by World Bank).
100 days minimum threshold is considered as optimum minimum while Pakistan is in extreme
danger zone with 32 days water storage capacity.
Dams can contribute to increase water storage capacity of Pakistan, Alone Kala-Bagh dam
would increase 25 days, 10 days by MAF, Diamer-bhasha dam will irrigate 8.1 MAF (Million
Acre Feet) and increase water life by 18 days, Mohmand dam by 4 days, Dasu dam by 3 days,
etc. The more the dams the more the water life would be.
Dams can be categorized into 3 categories depending upon their volume:

• Mega (Large)
• Medium
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• Small
They can be installed on river to store rainfall and produce electricity. Many sites are available
in Pakistan for the construction of dams. Alone in KP 400+ sites are available for dams (small
and medium) and at least 30 sites for mega dams. In Gilgit-Baltistan medium sites for dams
are 10 and 3 sites for mega dams. In AJK 15 Medium and large sites are available for dams.
Balochistan has 50 sites for medium and large dams.
2. To increase hydro electricity
There are other benefits for building dams instead of just increasing water life. It can be used
in generating hydel electricity. First of all, hydel electricity is the cheapest source of energy. It
would cost, maximum, 2 PKR per unit.
Other sources are expensive as compared to water. Some expensive sources are mentioned
below:
Oil (Most expensive) > Gas > Coal > Nuclear > Wind
First four sources are most expensive ones. Among all sources in the world, water is the
cheapest source for generating electricity and it is renewable source resulting in eco-friendly
environment.
Cheaper electricity means cheaper economy. Cheaper electricity would result in cheaper
production, products become competitive in the global market. Product depends upon the
quality and price, if the quality is good and price is low then product sell like hot cakes. Such
a product would mean more exports resulting in decline in trade deficit and more dollar reserve.
Domestic consumer is overburdened because of higher electricity prices, cheaper electricity
would alleviate this burden.
Repetitive govts of Pakistan made strategic blunders regarding electricity generation. In 1991,
we installed IPPs (Independent Power producer), which turned out to be our mistake, followed
by 2002, 2011 and 2014 IPPs were installed. IPPs are easy to install, cost on installing them is
less and they don’t take much time to be constructed. But they produce expensive electricity.
Moreover, all the IPPs were oil based not a single one was coal based, gas based, etc. All IPPs
were oil based. Pakistan opted for the most expensive electricity generation method.
More than 65% of our electricity is generated from thermal power plants because our energy
requirement increased with passage of time and we made strategic blunders by opting most
expensive methods. Politicians focused on next elections instead of next generation resulting
in decline in exports due to expensive electricity. It resulted is negative drastic implications on
economy. Solution to this blunder is to produce cheaper electricity from hydro to revive the
economy.
From 1947 to 2017 we build 12000 MW (Mega Watt) electric capacity projects only
(which shows the seriousness of politicians). While from 2017 to 2027 we would build
15000 MW projects. Largest projects would be

• Dasu 4300 MW (Project has started and will complete by 2027)

• Daimer Basha 4800 MW (Project has started and will complete by 2027)
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• Muhamand 800 MW (will complete by 2024)

• Kohala 1100 MW at Jhelum (will complete by 2024) Largest hydropower
projects other than Dams are:

• Karot 700 MW
• Azad Pattan 700 MW
• Pir Mahal
• Suki Kinari 890 MW (will complete by 2022). It is a Divergent tunnel.
By 2030, 50 % local electricity would by generated by hydel, the cheapest source. It will have
other implications as well.
3. To increase agricultural production yields
Dams and water canals should be built, in order to increase Agriculture yield. The primary
purpose of a dam is not electricity generation rather it is water storage and increase in
agriculture yield. Pakistan is an agrarian economy. But our agriculture is on decline for past 3
decades due to many reasons: floods, declining water availability, declining canal system,
water distribution pattern is faulty. Faults are: flood irrigation technique (a very old technique),
our water distribution is on time basis not on volume basis. To overcome these, dams and
canals should be built.
Canal is always linked with dams. E.g. With Kala-Bagh dam there will be 2 major canals; Thal
canal which will irrigate southern Punjab and Chashma Right Bank Canal 2 which will irrigate
southern KPK. They will irrigate at least 25% of existing agriculture land. Diamer Bhasha will
irrigate 1.3 Million Acre Land. Mohmand Dam will irrigate 3 Lac Acre Land. DASU and others
will also follow same pattern. Where there is a dam there are canals what so ever the case is.
In addition, Pakistan is agrarian valley agriculture production yield will increase.
4. To reduce intensity of floods we need dams
Urban flooding is a major issue in every city but mostly and devastatingly in Karachi,
Hyderabad and Lahore. Why floods occur? Extensive Rainfall. 93 years record of rainfall was
broken this year in Karachi. So, it’s not correct to hold Governement responsible. There were
many factors that contributed to urban flooding. Some of them are:

• Excessive rainfall
Rainfall that broke records.
• Lack of Cleaning Water drainage systems.
Drainage systems were not properly cleaned. This was a major cause.
• Land encroachment on drainage land.
Drainage lands were urbanized. Houses were built on them. E.g., On Malir drainage
there are 35000 illegal houses on it. Size of natural drainage system was narrowed in
presence of state. What were implications? More than 70% of Karachi was affected.
Even porch areas were affected e.g. Military in DHA was affected. On average, 4 feet
water was in Karachi while in some areas it was 7 feet. Public and private all sectors
were badly affected.
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How to avoid Urban flooding in future? Recommendations/Suggestions

(Important question for 2021)

• Cleaning of the drainage system.

• Remove illegal houses and provide them alternate houses, it is states responsibility.
• Empower local government system, financially and administratively according to the
style of a modern city even if it has to be on the style of New Delhi. This should be
done not only in Karachi only but in all cities of Pakistan.
• Underground water storage tanks should be built. In Lahore we need 18 of them, big
ones. Can be build, under the parks. In Lahore, 2 of them have already completed and
16 more are required. In Karachi, 56 of them are required minimum. The water stored
in storage tanks can be used in cleaning roads, can be used by LDA, KDA, RDA, etc.,
and can be used for plantation.

Importance of Karachi?
Karachi is the economic lifeline of Pakistan. Around 30% to overall GDP is contributed by
Karachi. 2 Seaports are in Karachi. State Bank of Pakistan is in Karachi. Head offices of all
banks are in Karachi. 2 largest industrial zones of Pakistan are in Karachi (Karachi east and
Karachi north). KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange) is in Karachi. It is important to save Karachi.
WB announced, on 6 December 2020, to allocate 1.9 trillion dollars for Sindh, as an aid not
loan. This aid is for Sindh only, from which major portion of fund is for Karachi to improve
water drainage system, to ensure safe drinking water, to remove illegal houses and relocate
people living in them. Moreover, 50% of this share is for 2 Dams to be built in Karachi. Many
officials from Pakistan participated in that meeting. It can be hoped that Karachi would get
better. Karachi would be a different place in coming years. Just like in early 80’s and late 90’s.
It is 1000 times better place than New Delhi and any place in Asia. Even better than Islamabad
and Lahore.
Flood is a major issue due to excessive monsoon rain. Especially in 2010 and 2020. Melting of
glaciers are occurring, more and more due to increase in temperature due to global warming.
Deforestation has resulted in reduction of soil water absorption capacity. Excessive water is
flushed out. Floods usually come in May, June, July and August. 80% water is flushed out in
sea after destruction because our requirement is less. It is a biggest headache especially for
Sindh government, how to escort water safely to sea without causing destruction? Solution is
simple, making of dams.
Mohmand dam will bring at least 60% flood cuts, river swat was major reason for floods 2010
and 2020. Bhasha dame will bring flood cuts by 60% and Dasu dam by 15%, both dams are on
Indus River. If Kala-Bagh dam is also installed, flood chances can be reduced to almost 0%.
One issue in Pakistan is to make more water available for domestic, agricultural and industrial
use. Dams can contribute to that. In Karachi, 2 desalination plants are installed. Dams should
be build, to increase water availability. For the first time in history, in 2018 people migrated
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from Karachi due to water issues. So, did in Hyderabad, Thar, Thal, Cholistan, etc. Overall
Balochistan faced water scarcity, even in capital. Only one way to survive this, is to make
dams.
Water flushed out in 4 months (May, June, July and August) is around 36 MAF (Million Acre
Feet), this huge amount of water is sufficient for 3 years for Pakistan. 36 MAF flood water was
escalated in 2010 normally we escort 20-26 MAF water in sea. Dams (mega, medium and
small) can be built on river and sea to store this water for our use.
Why we are not able to build dams (Hurdles)?

• Weak economic conditions

Last year budget deficit was 1.9 tr. Normally it is 1.5 tr. Pakistan can’t have budget
without loans. We require budget for Mega projects. E.g., cost for different projects
are; Bhasha 14 bn $, Dasu 7 bn $, Mohmand 3 bn $, etc. Having budget problem does
not mean we cannot build dams. There are other means which includes: a) BOT
(Build Operate Transfer):
In BOT, private companies will make dams and operate them. They will keep lion’s
share from its production and with passage of time there will be shift and
government will own these dams. Except for Diamer, Bhasha and Dasu, all of the
others are on BOT model owned by Chinese companies.
b) Loan System
Dasu is on loan. World Bank and Gezhouba are giving loan.
• Will of the state (government)
China in last 30 years, build more than 3000 dams medium or large sized not small.
India build 120 dams. Pakistan did not bother to build even a single one of it. We
installed IPPs (Independent power producer) only. Diamer Bhasha was inaugurated in
2004 by Pervaiz Musharaf but construction did not start. It was later inaugurated in
2011 by Gilani also inaugurated in 2014 but construction did not take place.
Construction started in 2020. Dam do not take more than 7-10 years to complete.
Mohmand dam was inaugurated in 2003. Its cost was estimated to be around 1 billion
dollars but in 2019, cost estimated was around 3 billion dollars by WB. Will of state is
absent. When will finally showed up 15000 MW electricity is to be generated in coming
years. Around 40 small dams and 3 mega dams are under construction.
Hurdle on Kala-Bagh dam:
Sindh province opposed Kala-Bagh dam’s construction. 90% of water of Indus belongs
to Sindh 10% belongs to Punjab excluding KPK’s share. Then why Sindh is opposing?
Because Sindh does not receive it’s 10% share from Jhelum and Chenab according to
IRSA agreement. Punjab stance on this issue is that Sindh does not get its share because
there is flow of river is reduced. Sindh receive more water than required. Although,
Punjab gets less than required. KPK stance is that Kala-Bagh will produce negative
implications in KPK as water level will increase. Because 65% of dam area is in KPK
but Punjab will get royalty. KPK is causing major hurdle because KPK should be
beneficiary. Balochistan stance is that according to IRSA agreement, many projects
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were launched, but not a single one was related to Balochistan, Is Balochistan not a part
of Pakistan? However, 50 dams can be installed in Balochistan. So, they do not allow
KalaBagh dam to be constructed.
Pak-India Water Conflict

Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed between Pakistan and India on September 19, 1960 by
Indian Prime Minister Jawahral Nehru and Pakistani president Ayyub Khan. This treaty was
brokered by The World Bank. According to this treaty eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas)
belongs to India and western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) belongs to Pakistan. Indus
River is shared by both countries. This treaty allows India to use only 10% of Indus share for
irrigation, power generation and transport. While Pakistan gets the remaining 90%. Jhelum and
Chenab belong to Pakistan completely. India can build reservoirs on western rivers but on some
conditions, which are:

• When the downstream utilization in Pakistan is less then India is allowed, to build
reservoirs.
• To take prior approval from Pakistan about height, size and location of dam pill ways.
• India cannot divert the flow of the western river.
• In case India Pakistan do not agree then they would refer the case to WB or ICA
International court of Arbitration.
• India is bound to facilitate Pakistani team to inspect the projects upstream every 6
months.

1. Problems of these conflicts

The major problem is the decline in water flow.
a) India’s stance

Decline in the flow of the rivers to great extent. India’s stance is that this decline is due to
decrease in flow and due to less rainfall.

b) Pakistan’s stance
• Pakistan does not consider it to be true because rainfall is not major contributor. 67%
of water is contributing by melting of glaciers, according to WB.
• Rainfall fluctuates but has not significantly reduced. Rain phenomenon is either prolong
draught or extensive rainfall.
• The real reason is that dams are built by India, where the height and size is more
resulting in more storage capacity. More and more dams built by India on river.
Location of the dams is such. E.g., Kishan-Ganga. Buglihar, Salaal, Dulhasti, Rathail,
Pak dual, etc. All these are considered to be violations in the eyes of Pakistan.
• Another reason is the divergence by making canals and barrages, e.g., Wullar barrage.
Pakistan’s dependency on these rivers
At least 80% of Pakistan’s water is dependent on these rivers. E.g., Mhydle, Mangla (Jhelum),
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Tarbella (Indus), Dasu (Indus), Diamer Basha (Indus), Kohala (Jhelum), Karat (Jhelum), Pir
Mahal (Jhelum), Azad Patan (Jhelum). Agriculture dependency; 80% of agriculture of Punjab
is dependent upon these rivers. KPK is 20% and Sindh is 60% dependent on these rivers. We
are agrarian valley, 19% of our agricultural growth contribute in GDP. More than 20.5%
domestic dependency and 20% Industrial dependency is on these rivers. India waged water war
on Pakistan.
Solutions to these conflicts
The most effective solution is to build more dams.
It is the only way to prevent India from making violation by building water reservoirs. Pakistan
wastes more than 80% of overall influx. Water is required for increasing agricultural
production yield. Pakistan has only 2 dams and its demand is less. So, Pakistan wastes water.
India exploited Pakistan’s weak point every year. Pakistan’s water requirement has increased.
Kala-Bagh will irrigate 10 MAF, Diamer 8 MAF and Dasu 3 MAF. After these 3 dams, India
will fail to exploit Pakistan’s weakness. India’s plan was to divert Neelum into Jhelum. But
Pakistan made Neelum Jhelum project in time, 4 dams are under construction there. India will
not be able to violate now.
How can Pakistan stop India from Violation?
Pakistan can stop India from violation by a few methods:

• Legal fight against India

IWT (Indus Water Treaty) is a good treaty but it does not have solution to every
violation by India. Treaty does not stop India from making more dams. Geneva
Convention on rivers can make our point strong.
• Preparedness (Legally and technically)
Team should consist legal experts not politicians and Technocrats (having expertise on
dams) not bureaucrats. In 2017, Pakistan India water dialogue held in WB’s main
office. Indian team had legal experts and technocrats while Pakistani team had
politicians and bureaucrats.

• Every 6 months inspection should be made on under construction project. So, the kind
of severity and violation made by India can be known to world and us.
Pakistan’s water life depends upon 3 rivers. India is violating, Pakistan needs to take these steps
to stop India from violating. If there will be any war between Pakistan and India, it could be
on water crisis. Future of Pakistan must be saved.