Hydro Politics

• Issue Profile
• Understanding Rivers
• Part 1: Indo-Pak Water Issues
• Measures to be taken
• Part 2: Inter-provincial Water Issues in Pakistan
• Measures to be taken
Facts
• Only 3% of world’s water is fresh water
• 1.1 Billion People lack access to water
• 4 Billion People face water scarcity at least once a month
• By 2040, 25% of the world will be in severe water stress
• 700 Million people could be displaced by 2030
• UN declared a human right to water on 28 July 2010
Scale
Water Stress
• water supplies drop below 1,700 m3 per person
Water Scarce
• When annual water supplies drop below 1,000 m3 per person
Absolute Scarcity
When annual water supplies drop below 500 cubic meters.
Indo Pak Issues

“It’s India, it’s Pakistan,

it’s Kashmir, and it’s water.
How much more sensitive can you get?”
— Feisal Naqvi
• Indus Water Treaty 1960
• Western River Water (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan
• India would be under an obligation to “let flow” their waters (subject to
certain specified limitations for domestic, non-consumptive, and
agricultural use).
 • The waters of the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas) to India exclusively.
• From the Indus System of Rivers, India got nearly 33 MAF at 16%
• Pakistan got nearly 177 MAF at 84%.
• India can use the western river waters for irrigation up to 701,000 acres

• These water allocations made to the Occupied Jammu & Kashmir are
meager
•  J&K State is bound to resort to costly de-silting of its reservoirs
• In 2003 J&K state assembly passed a unanimous resolution for the
abrogation of treaty
• Again, in June 2016, the Jammu and Kashmir assembly demanded for
revision of Indus Water Treaty.
• India derives military advantage out of IWT 
• Between 1960-2002, everything was fine
• In 2002, India started aggressively pushing ahead with the Baglihar and
Kishenganga projects.
Baglihar Dam
• Built on Chenab River
• Usage of low-level outlets
• allows India to drain all the water above the outlet
• The act of draining all water in a reservoir is called “drawdown flushing.”
• Drawdown flushing’s primarily role is to clear sedimentation from the
reservoir.
• This is done by having low-level outlets.
• India’s capability to interfere with Pakistan’s water flow
• A greater threat to Pakistan’s security
 • Will deprive Pakistan of 0.321 Acre-Feet water during Rabi Season
• Serious Setback of wheat production in Pakistan
• India won the arbitration
Kishenganga Dam
• Built on Jhelum River
• Similar Designs as of Baglihar Dam
• Designed to divert water of Jhelum River
• Serious Setback to Pakistan’s Security
• India refused to go to International Court of Arbitration
• India argued to go to Neutral Expert
• Stalemate has been since then
IWT needs revision
• Indus Waters Treaty completely avoided the disputed region of Kashmir
• Afghanistan’s developmental agenda will put more pressure on the basin’s
waters
• Exacerbation of China’s freshwater crisis which may lead them to exploit
Tibetan glaciers
• All four countries might need to renegotiate this treaty and discuss shared
water management in the future.
Way Forward
• Execute the Kishenganga Decision by taking the matter to a Neutral Expert
• Ensure a working definition of “Pondage”
• Timely data sharing through installment of telemetry systems.
• As a downstream country, Pakistan cannot be denied access to gauge levels
and data regarding river flow.
 • Without this information, Pakistan cannot ascertain whether India is
adhering to the IWT.
• One step that can be taken is to install a satellite-based, telemetry system
for real-time hydrology data on rivers.
• Ensure Transparency between Commissioners regarding new Indian
Projects on Western Rivers
• Pakistan’s concerns are multiplied due to lack of timely and adequate data
sharing
• Mitigate the role of the World Bank and other international institutions in
Indo-Pak transboundary water relations
• De-politicize and de-securitize the Treaty and broader Indo-Pak water
relations
• Confidence building measures must be taken between two countries

Part 2: Inter-provincial Water Woes

• With a rapidly growing population, Pakistan is heading towards water

shortage
• By corollary, there is a threat of food insecurity.
• Per capita surface water declined from 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951
to around 1,000 cubic meters in 2016.
• This quantity is likely to further drop to about 860 cubic meters by 2025
marking the transition from a “water stressed” to a “water scarce” country
• The minimum water requirement to avoid food and health implications of
water scarcity is 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year
• 95% of Pakistan's water goes to agriculture
Why did the British build irrigation system?
 • Increase in tax returns of the new irrigation system
• Increased government control of the Raj
• Reinforcement of the superiority of British “imperial scientific” discourse
• Cultivation of local elites through settlement and resettlement policies
What happened after British?
• Water is still a form of control: Landowners, elites and government
• Water policies mere a continuation of policies
• Division of Rivers between India & Pakistan

Agricultural Dilemma

“If you want to make a swimming pool for every cow,

there is a little scarcity.
If you want to cultivate sugarcane,
there is bigger problem.
And if you want corporate farming, you’re screwed.
But if you want roti (bread), there is no scarcity.”
– Daanish Mustafa
• 95% of water goes to Agriculture to give 20-25% of GDP
• Cotton and sugarcane are two of the most water-intensive crops
• 22,500 liters of water are required to produce one kilogram of cotton
• 1,500-3,000 liters for one kilogram of sugarcane
• Pakistan still encourages thee crops
• In 2009, The Nation reported that there were 78 sugar mills in the country
• 50% were owned by the leaders of the three biggest parties
• Subsidies to Sugarcane farmers
• Flat rate of water rates
• Flood Irrigation vs Drip Irrigation
• Water Leakages
• Water infrastructure worth $20Bn
• $0.3 Bn needed for maintenance
• Low water productivity:
• 0.13 kg/m3 in Pakistan
• 0.39 kg/m3 in India
• 1.56 kg/m3 in USA
• 8.72 kg/m3 in Canada
• Sindh & Baluchistan as lower riparian provinces
• No IWT for them
• Water Accord 1991
• Water logging and Salinity in Sindh
• Kalabagh Dam Controversy
• Dam building is a classic example of political myopia

• Stop perpetuating the post-colonial mindset of using water as a form of

control.
• Stop using the term “water scarcity
• Re-allocate water away from agriculture.
• Price water in large cities, and eventually the farms.
• Focus on demand management rather than supply-side approaches.
• Build Small Dams
• Projects like Kachhi canal should be done
• Illegal water scarcity should be ended

• https://thewaterproject.org/
• https://water.org/
• https://www.unicef.org/wash/water-scarcity
• http://ww3.comsats.edu.pk/ciitblogs/talks/Talk%20by%20Dr.%20Rashid
%20Aftab.pdf
• http://pakirsa.gov.pk/WAA.aspx
• https://climate-diplomacy.org/case-studies/water-conflict-and-
cooperation-between-india-and-pakistan
• https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/international-law/the-
india-pakistan-water-dispute-international-law-essay.php
• https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/the-indus-waters-treaty-india-and-
pakistans-water-divorce/