Water Crisis in Pakistan Notes

By Syed Noor Hussain (PAS)

Current Situation of Water in Pakistan
o Water availability has plummeted from about 5000 m3 per capita in the early 1950s to less than 1500 m3 per capita today.
o According to a World Bank report, Pakistan became a water stressed country in 2000 (less than 1700m3 per capita), and authorities say
Pakistan is destined to become water-scarce by 2035, a designation for a country with less than 1000 m3 per capita water.

Importance of Water for Pakistan

• Economic Importance
o 90% fresh water resources are allocated to irrigation and agriculture.
o More than 65% of Pakistan’s population is related to agriculture.

Factors contributing to water crisis in Pakistan

• Historical factors
o Initial success of 30 years
▪ Per capita surface water 5250 cubic meters in 1951
▪ WAPDA set up in 1959 to build major works.
▪ Warsak dam built on Kabul River in 1960.
▪ Mangla dam built on river Jhelum in 1967
▪ Tarbela dam built on Indus River in 1976
o Failure to build any major dam in the last 40 years
▪ Pakistan was a water abundant country in 1980s with 2500 cubic metres per capita.
▪ Kalabagh was planned next but no consensus could be built.
▪ From the commissioning of Tarbela and approval of Diamer Bhasha dam in 2008 no major dam built.
• Political factors
o Lack of political consensus on constructing dams: Kalabagh dam
o Inter-provincial water sharing disputes
▪ Water accord of 1991 & Indus River System Authority apportion 114 MAF of Indus river water between provinces
proportionally but the provinces accuse each other of stealing.
• Administrative factors
o Inefficient irrigation system
▪ 76 MAF out of 114 MAF (around 2/3rd) is lost in the distribution system due to seepage and other systemic losses.
▪ Diamer Bhasha dam will produce 8 MAF of water resource which is just 10% of the total water currently being lost.
o Inefficiency caused by lack of maintenance and repair investment
▪ In Punjab province alone the irrigation system is valued at $20 billion, which would require an annual maintenance
budget of $0.6 billion dollars. The actual maintenance budget, however, was $0.2 billion dollars, and 76% of the total
annual budget was spent on personnel.
o Bad policies: promotion of sugarcane, a water intensive crop
• Social Economic factors
o Corruption & lack of accountability
▪ Officials enjoy sweeping powers under the Canal and Drainage Act 1873.
▪ World Bank 2005 report tells how officials are bribed to get a special direct course outlet access to fields. With 60,000
direct watercourse outlets, there is an illegal income of Rs. 1.8 billion.
o Low salaries of officials
▪ World Bank 2005 report details 25% of farmers bribe irrigation officials
o Lack of social responsibility
o Increase in population resulting in low water per capita
▪ Population growth of four million a year puts a stress on the country’s water resources.
▪ Current water per capita is around 1500 m3, which designates Pakistan as a water stressed country.
• Environmental factors
o Natural decrease in reservoir capacity of Tarbela and Mangla due to silting
▪ Tarbela and Mangla have lost 30% of their reservoir capacity due to silting. The total storage capacity of the system
can only sustain 30 days of water demand. Minimum safe storage capacity for a country is 90 days.
o Decrease in flow of water in Indus basin system
▪ The anticipated flow this year is 95 MAF against a 112 MAF average of the last 10 years. Pakistan received 50 percent
less snowfall this year than its long term average in the catchment areas, which further added to the crisis
 o Global warming
▪ Glaciers are already receding at an alarming rate of one meter per year. Once the glaciers have melted, river flows are
expected to decrease rapidly. According to the World Bank report, in 100 years’ time, Indus river’s flow will fall to a
terrifying 40 percent.
▪ Pakistan is the 7th most affected country due to climate change.
▪ As glaciers retreat, more glacial lakes will form and increasing the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst floods GLOF.

Effects of water crisis

• Socio-Economic effects
o Agriculture will be affected most it forms 30% of the economy
▪ Farmers will likely feel the pinch with in-season water shortages, resulting in delay of harvesting and reduced crop
production.
▪ Consequently, Pakistan’s fiber requirement, 90 percent which is supported from local agriculture, will be seriously
affected, resulting in severe shortages and famine.
▪ Agriculture accounts for a 26 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country.
o Poor famers migrate to cities in search of income : strain on urban centers
• Political effects
o Escalation of disputes between provinces over water resources distribution
▪ Sindh and Punjab have 90% of agriculture practiced in Pakistan.
▪ They get the maximum share of Water Accord of 1991. They are most likely to fight.
o Lack of water resources will result in hegemony over resources
▪ Tanker Mafia and monopoly in Karachi
• Public health effects
o Water contamination and Water borne diseases
▪ For densely populated cities like Karachi, however, water scarcity is accompanied by water
▪ 630 children die each day from the waterborne disease of diarrhea
o Pesticides and untreated industrial waste
▪ Almost 30,000 residents of Karachi die every year due to contaminated water.
▪ Groundwater, the water which flows beneath the surface of the earth, has become increasingly toxic due to
indiscriminate usage of pesticides.
• Environmental effects
o Destruction of Indus basin delta due to low flow of water in the Indus basin
▪ The diversion of Indus river water in huge irrigation schemes for agricultural purposes has destroyed the Indus river
basin. For full 10 months of the year, there is no water downstream from the Kotri Barrage in the Indus river,
effectively destroying the Indus basin.
o Destruction of Mangrove forests in the Indus Delta
▪ The World Bank estimates that the mangroves in the Indus Delta have declined from 263,000 hectares in 1977 to
106,000 in 2003. This means that Pakistan has lost two thirds of its mangroves forests in last 3 decades.
o Destruction of eco systems dependent on the Delta: Fish, shrimps and Indus dolphins
▪ The depletion of water in the delta has taken a horrible toll on the biodiversity and fauna of the entire Indus Basin
ecosystem.
▪ Pakistan’s $100 million worth of fish and shrimps exports have been hurt by the mangroves forests, which are
necessary for the coastal fish and shrimp reproductive cycle.
▪ Furthermore, the blind freshwater Indus dolphin, virtually found everywhere in the Indus and its tributaries before
the 1930s, now exists in six isolated locations, and its risks extinction.

Solutions for water crisis

• Administrative solutions
o Increasing efficiency of distribution system: saving the 76 MAF lost
▪ If a significant fraction of 76 MAF lost in the Indus irrigation system could be saved, it would have a profound effect
on the overall shortage.
▪ National Water Resources Development Program (NWRDP) estimates that around 3.5 billion would be required for
lining and maintenance of the current canal system
o Reservoirs for storage capacity: Diamer Bhasha dam
▪ Significantly, in 2011, Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gillani laid the foundation stone of the Multi-billion dollar Diamer-
Bhasha dam, which is expected to produce 8 MAF in water storage capacity and 4500 MW in hydroelectricity.
▪ Chief Justice of Pakistan Mian Saqib Nisar has laid down the foundation of a dam fund to raise donations
o New water policy
▪ Planners need to deemphasize water-intensive crops, such as sugarcane, which has low productivity to consumed
water ratio, and promote crops such as wheat to maximize yield.
 ▪ Policy focus needs to be shifted from management of water supply to management of water demand
▪ Increasing crop productivity per unit of water
▪ Shift from increasing supply to managing demand
o Strong accountability measures
▪ International financial institutions and national governments should implement rigorous monitoring regimes and
establish checks and balances.
▪ He further argues that strict performance standards ought to be maintained to ensure results from the water
bureaucracy
• Political solutions
o Building consensus on projects like Kalabagh dam
▪ Grievances of stakeholders in stalled crucial projects, such as Kalabagh dam, should be adequately addressed and
alleviated, and a consensus ought to be realized.
▪ A commission should be established by the government with equal representation of all the parties to break the
stalemate on Kalabagh dam
o Resolving inter-provincial water disputes
• Innovative solutions
o Increasing reservoirs for saving monsoon surplus
▪ It ought to develop water reservoirs of various sizes at tehsil, village and community levels.
▪ These reservoirs will be instrumental in conserving the monsoon surplus, a significant portion of which is currently
lost due to inadequate storage capacity
o Innovation: Drip irrigation system
▪ Drip irrigation, by supplying small quantities of water to the plants through pipes, saves significant quantities of water
as opposed to the traditional method of flood irrigation.
▪ Drip irrigation in fact offers many advantages over the traditional methods including water savings, reduced labor
required for irrigation, less soil erosion, and increased crop productivity
o Treatment of waste water
▪ Millions of rupees can be saved in fresh water resource, and the harmful effects of such industrial waste on the
environment can be reduced significantly.
▪ Around 40 to 55 million Pakistani’s do not have access to safe drinking water, who will benefit immensely from
reduced water contamination and provision of safe drinking water.
o Desalination plants
▪ Desalination is already being practiced extensively throughout the world with around 120 countries currently using
this method to tap the potential of the largest reservoir of the world, the ocean.
▪ In 2008, Pakistan inaugurated its first desalinization plant in Gwadar city, which will produce 254,000 gallons of clean
portable water per day.
▪ This is a great stride forward for Pakistan, and such a plant should be established in Karachi, which suffers from grave
water shortages

National Water Policy 2018

Approved in the 37th meeting of Council of Common Interest CCI on 24th April 2018. It was Pakistan’s first ever water policy and signed by PM and
all chief ministers.

Preamble
Pakistan had 5260 cubic meters per capita per annum water in 1951. In 2016 it was 1000 cubic meters. By 2025 it will drop to 860 cubic meters.
Marking Pakistan’s transition from ‘water stressed’ to ‘water scarce’.

95% of Pakistan’s water resources are used in agriculture.

Main Concerns
• Fresh water resource is decreasing constantly due to demand.
• Water scarcity can adversely affect the well-being of the people as it effect the food and energy security of the country.
• Geographical location of Pakistan is in heat surplus zone and vulnerable for climate change. Pakistan will face extreme weather
conditions like the floods of 2010.
• Existing and future developments on Western rivers (Indus water Treaty) can impact water availability.
• Indus Basin Replacement Works (dams in particular) are becoming useless due to silting.
• Water sharing between different regions in the country is an issue and might cause social unrest.
• Due to salt balances in irrigated lands soil quality is deteriorating.
 • Bulk of drinking water demand is met by groundwater, whose quantity and quality is depleting.
• All agencies ought to work in the light of 18th Amendment.
• Sewage water should be treated.
• Lack of social awareness regarding scarcity. Total disregard for conservation and efficiency.
• No effort has been made for Desalinization. Pakistan has a significant source of sea water.
• Agriculture has low productivity in terms of water usage.

Policy Objectives
• Promote sustainable consumption.
• Maximizing use of available water uses through reservoirs, conservation and efficiency.
• Improving availability and quality of fresh water.
• Spread social awareness. Introduce water conservation lessons in curriculum of schools.
• Development of Hydropower.
• Providing food security and adapting according to large scale stresses such as climate change and population.
• Treatment and reuse of domestic, agricultural, industrial water.
• Improve water information gathering systems for accurate assessment.
• Maintaining the health of water related eco systems.
• Flood management.
• Drought management.
• Rain water harvesting technologies in urban and rural areas.
• Regulating groundwater withdrawal.
• Adequate water pricing for irrigation.
• Make efforts for long term sustainability of irrigation system.
• Encouraging public and private partnerships.
• Profitable use of flood water.
• Exploitation of water potential generated through hill torrents.
• Protection of wetlands and flora and fauna.
• Enhancing water productivity through infrastructure management.
• Climate change impact assessment and adaptation of water resource management.
• Promoting water research.
• Preserve Indus Area by providing sufficient supplies regularly.
• Effective rainwater management.
• Effective implementation of the 1991 Water Apportionment accord.

Relative Priority of Water Use

1. Drinking and sanitation
2. Irrigation including land reclamation
3. Livestock, fisheries, and wildlife
4. Hydropower
5. Industry and mining
6. Environment, river system, wetlands, aquatic life
7. Forestry including social forestry
8. Recreation and sports
9. Navigation

Main Targets for 2018-2030

Current Situation
• Surface Water
o Pakistan’s river flow are dependent on Glacial Melt 41%, Snowmelt 22%, Rainfall 27%.
o The Indus River System receives annual influx of about 138 MAF (Million Acre feet) of water.
o Pakistan is mainly dependent on 3 western rivers of the Indus: Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab. Currently about 1.4 MAF of water
flows from India to Pakistan from its eastern rivers.
o Also included in Pakistan’s total surface water is 21 MAF from the Kabul river.
o Of the annual 104 MAF diverted into canals 46.6 MAF seeps into the ground.
o Current Storage capacity is 14 MAF.
• Ground Water
 o Pakistan is extracting 50 MAF from the aquifers and has already crossed the sustainable safe yield. This over mining has
resulted in pollution of groundwater.

Targets for 2018-2030

• Reduce transmission loss
o Reduction of 33 % of 46 MAF lost to seepage through lining in canals especially in saline areas.
• Increase storage capacity
o 10 MAF to be added by construction of new reservoirs. This will increase Pakistan’s total storage capacity from 14 MAF to 24
MAF.
o Consensus of all federating units on Diamer Bhasha Dam was achieved in Council of Common interests in 2009. The
construction can immediately begin. Diamer Bhasha will add 6.4 MAF storage.
• Increase Agriculture production efficiency
o Increase in 30% efficiency of water use by producing ‘more crop per drop’.
o Introduce drip irrigation and sprinkler technology.
o Introduce realistic water pricing. The farmer pays 1/4th of the groundwater price for irrigated water.
• Overhauling of Infrastructure
o Gradual replacement and refurbishing of decades old irrigation infrastructure.
• Realtime water monitoring by IRSA
o Telemetric monitoring to maintain transparent water accounting system.
• Reliable assessment of water resources
o Federal and provincial organizations to set up a standardized mechanism for data collection
• Increase investments in Water Development
o Atleast 10 percent budget of Federal Public Sector Development Program for water development. Gradually increasing the
budget to 20% by 2030.
o Provincial governments should also increase their budgets.

Investment needed

Sub Sector Investment (Rs. Billion) Major Projects

Storage 1600 Diamer Bhasha, Mohmand Dam
Conservation 800 Lining of canals, telemetric monitoring, HEIS
projects, improvement of conveyance
efficiency
Drainage 150 RBOD I, RBOD II, RBOD III, new reclamation
projects
Flood control 186 National Flood Protection Plan IV
Rehabilitation of Irrigation system 300 Rehabilitation of barrages, headworks and
canals
Research 1% of total 30 IWASRI Research Program, GMRC, Hi AWARE

National Water Council

A new body named as ‘National Water Council’ shall be established with PM, Federal Ministers and Chief ministers. The biody shall meet once a
year to coordinate, recommend legislation, and strategies for water development.

Pakistan Water Charter 2018

• We have forged a consensus that
o The demand supply gap of freshwater is broadening due to population explosion, rapid urbanization, and sub optimal use of
water resource.
o Sustainable consumption needed
o Judicious use of water resources
o Need to build reservoirs
o Sea water intrusion needs to be checked
o Scientific management of water is needed. Substantial portion of water is lost to seepage in canals.
o Contamination of water is causing danger to public health.
• We pledge that
o Top priority will be given to water sector
 o Interprovincial coordination for transformational infrastructure development.
o Transfer of political power from one regime to another should not affect the water projects and approved projects to continue
unhindered,
o Water resource planning to be entrusted to high level officials.
• We firmly resolve that efforts will be made to avert water crisis and mitigate the anticipated impact of climate change.
• The charter is a Call to Action and the declaration of a water emergency. We must now look beyond our differences and come together
as a nation . We will seize the day and secure our future.
• Signed by
o Prime Minister of Pakistan: Shahid Khaqan Abbasi
o Chief Minister Punjab: Shahbaz Sharif
o Chief Minister Sindh: Syed Murad Ali Shah
o Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Pervez Khan Khattak
o Chief Minister Balochistan: Mir Badul Qudus Bezinjo