Hydro Politics

Water issues in Domestic and

Regional Context
 Outline
i. Introduction
ii. HP : Domestic Context
iii. HP : Regional Context
iv. Way forward
v. Conclusion
 Introduction
• Water related politics is known as hydro
politics.
• Hydro politics in Pakistan has two dimensions
one is domestic politics second is regional
politics.
• It is usually stated that conflicts in future
would be fought on water issues.
• Domestically there has always been a problem
regarding water distribution among provinces.
 Introduction
• The smaller provinces are those at the tail end
such as Sindh and Baluchistan, always
complain that they aren’t getting their due
share of water.
• Sindh accuses Punjab and Balochistan accuses
Sindh for using their share of water.
• We have water related problems with regional
countries also such as India and Afghanistan.
 Introduction
• From a water-abundant country at the time of
Independence, Pakistan has become a water-
scarce country.
• Ranking third amongst the water-scarce
countries of the world.
• Any region where annual supply of water
drops below 1700 cubic meters per person
qualifies to be labeled as water-stressed
 Introduction
• While a level below 1000 cubic meters per
person in an area is rated as water-scarce area.
• In 1947, Pakistan possessed 5,600 cubic
meters of water per person,
• which reduced to 5,260 cubic meters in 1951,
• 1200 cubic meters in 2007,
• 1100 cubic meters in 2009,
• 1000 cubic meters in 2010, and
 Introduction
• Went down to 908 cubic meters per head in
2017.
• It was projected to touch down to 800 cubic
meters by 2025 if new water reservoirs were
not constructed in the country.
• Pakistan’s thirst for water, a vital resource for
people’s health, livelihood and economic
development,
 Introduction
• Has been constantly rising due to galloping
rise in population,
• Increase in industrial activity,
• Over-exploitation,
• Climate change,
• Failure to augment water resources and
• Lukewarm cooperation of India, with which
Pakistan shares Indus river basin.
 Introduction
• In addition to energy, the scarcity of water has
remained as one of the main impediments to
the sustained growth of Pakistan’s agriculture
and industry.
• But, unfortunately, some quarters in the
country spare no effort in making even
technically feasible mega-water conservation
projects controversial on one count or the
other.
 Introduction
• Taking advantage of political wrangling in
Pakistan,
• India remains continuously engaged in efforts
to build scores of hydropower projects on
rivers flowing into Pakistan
• Despite her assurances, under the Indus Basin
Treaty, not to interfere with the Pakistani
rivers.
 Introduction
• India’s tacit role in making economically
feasible hydropower projects in Pakistan
controversial cannot be ruled out.
• Meanwhile, the storage capacity of mega water
reservoirs constructed in Pakistan after
Independence has reduced by 27 per cent due
to sedimentation.
 Domestic Context
• Indus River System passes through all the four
provinces.
• There were disputes regarding water distribution
amongst the provinces.
• IRSA (Indus River System Authority) was created
in 1991 to resolve Water disputes.
• Under the formula worked out, Sindh’s share
currently stands at 10,000 cusecs per day,
Punjab’s 18,000 cusecs, Balochistan 3,000 cusecs
and KP 3,000 cusecs.
 Domestic Context
• Water problems may be due to two reasons.
• When there is scarcity of water which lead to
droughts in parts of Sindh and Baluchistan.
• Secondly problem may be due to abundance of
water during continues rainfall.
• Floods have affected our rural areas in the
past.
• Three provinces of KPK Punjab and Sind are
effected every year.
 Domestics Context
• Under the Water Apportionment Accord 1991,
small federating units -- Balochistan and KP
will never face water shortages or complete cut
of their share even if the country experiences
water deficit.
• In case of water deficit, Sindh and Punjab will
sustain the losses in their shares.
 Domestics Context
• Faced with such an alarming situation, the
country needs to construct more water reservoirs,
on an urgent basis, to enhance its water storage
capacity and also the per capita availability of
water.
• However, for one reason or the other the country
could not build mega water reservoirs, during the
last 14½ years, with the exception of Golen Gol
Dam, Tarbela Dam 4th Extension and Neelum
Jhelum Hydropower Project.
 Domestics Context
• The latter four projects would irrigate 72,000
acres of virgin land and have added 2,487 MW
of hydel electricity to the national grid.
• Some ready for construction projects include:
1410 MW Tarbela 5th Extension, 2160 MW
Stage-II of Dasu Dam, 7100 MW Bunji and
Stage-II of multipurpose Kurram Tangi Dam.
 Domestics Context
• Historically speaking, under the Indus Basin
Treaty, the World Bank had agreed to finance
the construction of two dams – Mangla and
Kalabagh – to compensate Pakistan for the loss
of waters of its eastern rivers.
• Pakistan completed Mangla dam in 1967, but
Kalabagh dam became controversial due to
inability of the successive governments to
create consensus.
 Domestics Context
• Unfortunately, over the years the stand of the
smaller provinces on this issue has become
more rigid
• Notwithstanding the fact that since water is
crucial for human sustenance and also for
industrial growth and economic prosperity,
• all hydropower projects need to be taken-up
purely on technical grounds.
 Kalabagh Dam
• This dam has a capacity of generating
electricity of 3600 MW, which is the average
shortfall.
• It was floated in Zia ul Haq period and made
controversial. KP is opposing due to its
adverse implications.
• Sindh and Baluchistan are opposing due to
reduction in water flow.
• Only Punjab in its favor.
 Mohmand Dam
• Construction of 700 feet high concrete-faced
rockfill Mohmand (Previously called Munda)
Hydropower Project is proposed at Swat River
about five kilometres upstream Munda
Headworks in Mohmand (KP).
• This dam will have a gross storage capacity of
1.293 MAF, live storage capacity of 0.676 MAF
and power generation capacity of 800 MW.
• It is estimated to be completed at a cost of
937.960 million rupees.
 Diamer-Bhasha Dam
• Situated near “Bhasha” in Gilgit-Baltistan’s
Diamer District, Diamer-Bhasha Dam is on
the River Indus.
• Upon completion, this dam is projected to
produce 4,500MW of electricity.
• It would extend the life of Tarbela Dam by 35
years;
• Would control flood damage by the River
Indus.
 Diamer-Bhasha Dam
• The gross water storage capacity of its
reservoir will be 8.1 MAF (10.0 km), with a
live storage of 6.4 MAF (7.9 km).
• Two underground power houses are proposed
to be built, one on each side of the main dam,
having six turbines on each side with total
installed capacity of 4500 MW.
• The project is likely to cost US$ 14 billion.
 Regional context
• Regionally south Asian states have water
disputes.
• In case of Pakistan we have problems with
India and Afghanistan.
• In 2016, the Indian PM threatened that flow of
water to Pakistan would be stopped and also
withdrawal from Indus Water treaty.
• China countered India in favor of Pakistan.
 Regional context: India
• Indus river system consisting of river Indus
and it’s five tributaries is the life line of
Pakistan and western India.
• As a result of division in 1947, the Indus river
system was cut across.
• In 1950’s Pakistan and India confronted each
other on water distribution.
 Regional context: India
• This problem was resolved in 1960 by signing
Indus Basin treaty through world bank
mediation,
• Under this treaty three rivers including Indus
were given to Pakistan and the remaining three
were given to India.
• This treaty was accepted by India because it
was in its favor.
 Regional context: India
• Three rivers were exclusively given to India
which were not passing through Pakistan
• Three rivers given to Pakistan were passing
through India
• So India is using three rivers exclusively and
three rivers of Pakistan also.
 Indus Water Treaty
• The IWT was signed in 1960 and allocated the
three eastern rivers of the Indus basin — the Ravi,
Beas and Sutlej — to India, while 80 per cent of
the three western ones — the Indus, Jhelum and
Chenab — were allotted to Pakistan.
• India has maintained that it has not fully utilized
its 20pc share of the Indus waters and that the
proposed water projects would not be in violation
of the treaty.
 Indus Water Treaty
• Pakistan has disputed these claims. The three
remaining western rivers on which Pakistan
now relies upon all originate in or pass through
Kashmir before entering Pakistan.
• In other words, India, after having obtained the
waters of the three eastern rivers through Indus
Waters Treaty, is now trying to take control of
our three western rivers as well.
 Indus Water Treaty
• Rivers given to Pakistan have been used by
India because they are passing through India.
• At the time of partition, India had no access to
Kashmir, Gurdaspure District was given to
India for this purpose.
• Kashmir apart from territorial dispute is also
water dispute.
 Indus Water Treaty
• Baghlihar, Kishanganga, Rattel dams are some
of the disputed projects of India and supply of
water would be adversely effected to Pakistan
once these projects are completed.
• There are three mechanism of dispute
resolution under the treaty – bilateral, neutral
expert and Court of Arbitration (COA).
 Indus Water Treaty
• Pakistan can be affected at two occasions,
reduced supply of water affecting our water
needs and may lead to drought in areas of
Punjab and Sindh.
• Large release of water during summer season
and rainfall would lead to floods in Pakistan
creating devastation in rural areas of Pakistan.
 Wullar Barrage
• In the last 26 years, the two countries have
held 13 rounds of secretary-level talks on the
issue of India’s right to build the Wullar
Barrage.
• According to India, she had the right to build
the barrage under all conditions and Pakistan
held that the construction of Wullar Barrage, or
any other project that resulted in Indian control
over the River Jhelum, was unacceptable.
 Bhaglihar Dam
• Prof Raymond Lafitte of Switzerland, the
neutral expert on the Bhaglihar Dam dispute
who gave his decision in favor of India,
• He has acted as a pure professional engineer
since he is trained to look at projects in the
strictest sense of their operational efficacy and
economic performance.
• He has not taken into consideration the
historical hostility between the two.
 Kishenganga
• In respect of India’s Kishenganga River (which
takes the name of Neelum when it enters
Pakistan), the treaty allows India to construct a
hydroelectric project with storage within a
certain limit, on a tributary of the Jhelum
River.
• But it does not permit diversion of flows to
either another tributary or to a storage such as
Wullar Lake on the main Jhelum.
 Kishenganga
• India had completed the 330MW Kishanganga
project during the period the World Bank
“paused” the process for constitution of a
Court of Arbitration (COA) as requested by
Pakistan in early 2016.
• The Pakistani request was countered by India
by calling for a neutral expert.
 Ratle project
• About the Ratle project, Pakistan had four
objections.
i. Freeboard should be one meter instead of two
meters,
ii. poundage should be a maximum of eight
million cubic meters instead of 24 million,
iii. intake level should be at 8.8 meters and
iv. spillways at the height of 20 meters.
 Afghanistan
• During President Hamid Karzai period, India
has asked Afghanistan to construct water
projects for energy generation on River Kabul
that flows into Pakistan.
• Energy projects can be of two types . One flow
of water is being used as for energy generation
which is not harmful for Pakistan and secondly
conservation of water by construction of dams.
 Afghanistan
• This would naturally reduce the flow of water
into Pakistan.
• So some scholars suggest that Pakistan should
sign a similar agreement with Afghanistan as
we have with India in order to avert any water
dispute with Afghanistan in future.
 Afghanistan
• In case of Pakistan and Afghanistan this is not
a serious problem because both the countries
can reach a compromise
• As one river Kabul enter into Pakistan’s
territory and another river Swat enter from
Pakistani territory to Afghanistan
• So a compromise can be made by both the
states for their mutual benefits
 Way forward
• Pakistan has been able to utilize only 13 per cent
of its hydel resources during the last seven
decades, some countries make optimum use of
these resources.
• For example, US has developed 497 per cent
storage capacity of the annual flow of river
Colorado,
• Egypt 281 per cent on river Nile and
• India over 35 per cent on Sutlej and Bias Basin.
 Way forward
• Meanwhile, fearing scarcity of water, many
nations remain engaged in building mega
water reservoirs.
• China is building 95 major dams with a height
of 200 feet or more,
• Turkey 51,
• Iran 48,
• Japan 40 and India over 20.
 Conclusion
• It is concluded that water is a future source of
conflict in the world in general and in south
Asia in particular.
• In case of Pakistan, there are domestic and
regional issues regarding water distribution.
• Such issues must be resolved before a conflict
turns into armed conflict.
• Water agreement of 1991 & IWT are examples
of dispute resolution.