Floods: Reason of floods?

Flood is a global problem. Causing damages to both developed and developing world. Pakistan
one of the worst effec@ves of floods either of 2010 floods or 2022. 2022 flood is the worst
ever flood in the history of Pakistan caused by excessive rainfall. It worstly effected the
agriculture and infrastructure and socio-economic life of the country.
Intensity of 2022 floods:
Pakistan faced the worst ever floods in history. Baluchistan was the first province that is hit by
floods. The province receives more than 1500mm in the month of July. Almost same ra@o in
the month of august. The province receive biggest ever rainfall in history. It is mostly in
Sulieman ranges and beneath. Furthermore, seven small dams broken down that increase the
severity in the province

Northern Pakistan: Pakistan northern areas are considered as the second worst effecter of
floods. Gilgit Bal@stan receive biggest rainfall in history that is 1500 + mm in the month of July
and almost same amount of rainfall receive in Hazara division of KP. This caused floods in Indus
River. Malakand division (Swat, Chitral etc.) received more than 1400mm rainfall. The second
largest shower aZer 2010. Which caused floods in river swat and later on Kabul River.

Sindh received the highest ever rainfall in its history in the month of July and August. Each
month received rainfall fall above 1500 mm. majority of the inflex of river Sindh is due to the
water coming from Baluchistan (almost 80%). All the flood water from northern Pakistan
accumulated in Indus River. All the water of the Indus River entered into Sindh.

Implica@ons:
The whole of Pakistan in general and specifically Sindh and Baluchistan worst hit by the floods
of 2022. The agriculture of Sindh worst hit, more than 80% of standing crops in Sindh were
destroyed because of flood 2022. Especially co`on, rice, mangoes, watermelons, green chilies
etc. furthermore, livestock worst hit in the province as more than 200,000 cows, buffaloes,
goats, sheep and donkeys etc. died in the flood. Baluchistan has already limited agricultural
capacity; majority of the available capacity was destroyed. Agriculture of Southern Punjab,
southern and central KP hit badly.

Domes@c life/ house hold:

More than 1 million houses par@ally and completely damaged across Pakistan. Majority of the
houses were drowned in floods. For example, Dadu (Sindh). Flood level in Sindh is almost
14feet. Majority of the houses in Baluchistan were destroyed by the speedy flow of the floods,
same was the problem in northern Pakistan (KP and GB). All the house hold belongings were
lost, specifically the stored grains of wheat and maize, the livestock, the common products
use for livelihood. Result, people were forced to displaced from their houses.

The public infrastructure was worst hit.

More than 12000 km of roads par@ally and completely damaged across Pakistan. More than
3000 small and medium size bridges par@ally and completely damage. More than 3000km of
railway tracks are par@ally and completely destroyed. A series of hydroelectric power sta@ons
completely or par@ally damaged. More than 1500 km of transmission-lines par@ally or
completely damaged. Educa@onal ins@tu@ons, hospitals, and the rest of the public infra
structure among the worst hit in Pakistan.
Humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
The displacement of more than 36 million people from their houses. The highest ra@o is in
Sindh, Baluchistan and southern Punjab. Common problems a`ached with floods and
displacements are the outbreak of viral diseases. The shortage of food and water etc.
sanita@on problem. The biggest them all is economic crises.

As per world bank. Report, more than 16 billion loss was faced by Pakistan because of 2022
floods. The UN Secretary general termed the 2022 Pakistan as the biggest tragedy.
NDMA report
World bank report

Recommenda@ons: how to avoid floods in future?

The world in general and in Pakistan in par@cular, recurring and devasta@ng floods. Therefore,
the state must take all the needy measures to minimize and control the destruc@on of floods
in the country.
1. Pakistan needs to build dams.
In the month of July and August 2022, the overall influx in Indus was approx. 26 million
cubic feet. If Kalabagh dam was build, it would have store 10 million cubic feet. If
diamer basha would build, it would store 8.1 million cubic feet. If mumand dam would
build, it would store 1.3 million cubic feet. These three dams would have made the
intensity of floods in Indus river negligible. Almost 20 million cubic feet store in these
damns and 6 million cubic feet remains leZ which is negligible. In Baluchistan alone,
70 + sites that could built and store 20 + million cubic feel (mcf) water. Alone KP, 450 +
sites small medium and large, Punjab 40+ sites for dam, GB 15+ sites, AJK 10 + sites,
Sindh 10+ sites. The more the dams being build, the ore the storage capacity would be
and the lesser threat of floods.

2. Build canals to reduce the flood intensity:

Bangladesh, India and China have not only built dams but also canals with mul@-
purposes. Predominantly to reduce the intensity of floods, resultantly these countries
do not face such devasta@ng implica@ons of floods the way Pakistan does. In 1991, the
IRSA agreement, it was decided to build canals like Greater Thal canal in southern
Punjab, Chashma right bank canal-II in Southern KP, Kachi Canal in Baluchistan, and
Nara Canal in Sindh etc. but unfortunately, these canals are par@ally built or not
ini@ated at all. If they were completed in @me, they would have mul@ple benefits,
primarily to reduce the intensity of floods.

3. Disaster management:
It is not only preparedness against floods that is needed but also the management of
flood is equally required. The major reasons for the destruc@on by floods in the urban
centers are the poor sanita@on system, and the illegal construc@on on the water
channels, more important in Karachi. The same happened in rural areas of Baluchistan,
in the Ravi River, in Swat river, in Indus river, such illegal construc@on will removed but
also such honors have to be panelized. For that we need, comprehensive law making
and strict enforcement. Furthermore, the district and provincial governments must
 have enough funds, machinery, human resources to reduce the effect of floods and
save public and private property.

4. Approach the interna@onal community:

UN secretary general stated: Pakistan is facing the worst ever floods and its implica@on
not because of its own faults, but because of global carbon emissions for which major
emi`ers, not Pakistan is responsible. Therefore, the world must provide due support
to Pakistan, especially the financial support so that Pakistan deals such crises.

Conclusion:
If above measures should be taken, only than the country would be save for future
destruc@on done by floods.

NEXT TOPIC: WHY WE NEED DAMS?

Water is one of the most precious giZed of the nature. It should neither be misused
nor wasted. Every possible step should be taken to preserve it and the biggest
possible steps is to build dams. Countries across the world have been building dams
to preserve water. China has built more than 3000 dams in last 30 years. India more
than 250 dams in past 40 years. Unfortunately, Pakistan has built no dam in last 50
years. The government of Pakistan must take proper ini@a@ve to build dams in order
to save future of the country.
1. To store and increase the water life of the country:
The more the dams being built, the more the water life would be. US has more
than 900 days, Canada more than 450 days, China approx. 400 days, India more than
120 days. But Pakistan unfortunately on 33 days. As per world bank standards, a
country should have water storages that is enough for at least 100-120 days of
u@liza@on in agriculture, industries and domes@c sectors. Pakistan in order to increase
its water life has to build dams. Alone Kalabagh has 23 days add water life to Pakistan.
Dimer basha adds 18 days in water life, muhmand dam adds 3-4 days. The more the
dams being built the more the water life of a country will be.

2. To increase the agriculture capacity, we need dams:

Agriculture, that is the backbone of our economy, is on decline. Floods, shortage
of water, deuteria@on of the canal system, urbaniza@on of agricultural land and
more are the factors for the decline of the sector. To revive and promote the
agriculture sector, the federal and provincial government need to take mul@ple
steps, especially the construc@on of canal and dams. The primary purpose of the
two; canal and dams, is the promo@on of agriculture. Diamer basha dam would
irrigate 1.2-million-acre land, Dasu dam 400,000-acre land, Mumand 300,000-acre
land. But the real revolu@on would be the construc@on of Kalabagh and its affiliate
canals. As it would irrigate southern Punjab, southern KP and interior Sindh. The
more the dams being build, the more would be the agricultural produc@on.

3. To increase cheaper electricity genera@on, we need to build more dams:

Pakistan is facing not only severe loadshedding but also higher electricity
produc@on cost. Currently, Pakistan generates most expensive electricity in South
 Asia (PM Pakistan). Far nega@ve implica@on on the economy, and the socio-
poli@cal fabric of the country. In order to produce cheaper electricity, Pakistan
needs to focus on the construc@on of dams. Diamer Basha dam would produce
4500 Mega-wa` of electricity, Dasu 4300 MW, Mumand 800 MW, Kohala 1100
MW, Karrot 730 MW, Sukhi Kinari 883MW etc. Collec@vely 15000 MW addi@onal
electricity would be added in the system by 2030. The maximum per unit cost
would be 4-5 PKr. That would be the cheapest possible cost of electricity. The
cheaper the electricity, the cheaper the industry produc@on, the more the exports,
the lesser the imports, trade deficit would shiZ to trade surplus. Same posi@ve
impacts will be on the overall socio- economic life of the country.

4. To reduce the intensity of floods, we need dams:

In the month of July and August 2022, the overall influx in Indus was approx. 26
million cubic feet. If Kalabagh dam was build, it would have store 10 million cubic
feet. If diamer basha would build, it would store 8.1 million cubic feet. If mumand
dam would build, it would store 1.3 million cubic feet. These three dams would
have made the intensity of floods in Indus river negligible. Almost 20 million cubic
feet store in these damns and 6 million cubic feet remains leZ which is negligible.
In Baluchistan alone, 70 + sites that could built and store 20 + million cubic feel
(mcf) water. Alone KP, 450 + sites small medium and large, Punjab 40+ sites for
dam, GB 15+ sites, AJK 10 + sites, Sindh 10+ sites. The more the dams being build,
the ore the storage capacity would be and the lesser threat of floods.

5. To stop India from viola@on, Pakistan needs to build dams:

As per Indus water treaty, India can build dams on the western rivers only when
the water need downstream in Pakistan is less. Pakistan is the country was@ng
highest amount of water into the sea in South Asia. More than 80% of water influx
in the month of May, June, July and august because of mel@ng of glaciers and
monsoon rainfall. But the water needs in this @me in less, resultantly majority of
the water drained-out into the sea. This has been the weak point of Pakistan
successfully exploited by India to build dams on the western rivers. If Pakistan
wants to stop India from viola@on, it has to stop the wastage of water that is only
possible if it increases the water need by building dams.

Hurdles in construc@on of dams:

1. Weak economy of the country is the major hurdle in construc@on of dams:
The construc@on of dams are poten@ally very expensive phenomena. Diamer
Basha dam would cost as more than 14 billion dollars, Dasu more than 7 billion
dollars, Mumand Dam more than 3 billion $, kalabagh more than 14 billion $.
On the other hand, Pakistan is persistent budget deficit. 2022-23 the total
expenditure was 8.4 trillion Pkr, the total collec@on leZ with the center was 4.3
trillion Pkr. 4.1 trillion pkr was the deficit. Almost the same deficit in the
previous economic year, on average more than 3 trillion pkr annually deficit in
last one decade.
Solu@on: Mega projects are always funded by major investors like world bank,
Asian development bank etc. Dasu dam is funded by World bank, China, and a
 part by saudia arabia. Mumand dam is being funded by China and a local
investor.
2. The lack of the will on the part of Successive Government:
China builds more than 30 dams in last years, India more than 200 dams in last
20 years, while Pakistan build none in last 50 years. Diamer Basha dam being
inaugurated four @mes, 1st in 2004, 2nd in 2008, 3rd in 2014, but real work
started in 2020. Same as Mumand dam was supposed to be ini@ated 2003 and
by then the cost would be 1 billion $ and real work stated in 2012 and the cost
is 3 billion $. Once the state and government shown its will, 3mega dams;
Mumnd, dasu and Diamaer dam beinf ini@ated at same @me.

Pakistan India water conflict:

IWT – Indus water treaty:
1. Eastern rivers belong to India and western to Pakistan (Indus, Jhelum,
Chenab)
2. India can use the water of western rivers for hydel genera@on if the water
need in Pakistan is less.
3. India cannot divert the flow of rivers.
4. India must take the approval of Pakistan of the design of the project on the
western rivers. Pakistan can raise ques@on on height, size, and spill ways
etc.
5. In case dispute rises, both the country would resolve it as per Indus water
treaty. If the dispute con@nues, they would refer the case to the world bank
or interna@onal court of arbitra@on.
Problem statement: decline in the flows of rivers towards Pakistan
Jhelum and Chenab more than 50% decline in each, In Indus River minimum
45% cut.
Effect: it has greatly threatened the water life of Pakistan which is
overwhelming dependent on these three rivers. Agriculture of Punjab and
Sindh, domes@c and agriculture need of water is greatly dependent on these
rivers. The more the decline in the flow, the more the threats to the exsist
concern on the country.
Reason: Stance of India: India claims the decline in the flow of rivers is the less
rainfall- droughts but the stance is not correct as per world bank report, more
than 67 % of the water of the western rivers is contributed by the mel@ng of
glaciers and contribu@on by Rainfall is 33 %. The real reasons for the decline in
the flow of rivers are; the construc@on of dams like Kishan Ganga, Baglihar,
salal, Pak dual, Ratlay etc, and secondly the divergence of the flow of rivers
through barrages like wullar, tulbul, etc. and canals.
Solu@on;
1. build dams in order to stop in order to stop India in making viola@on
2. Proper preparedness
a. Legal preparedness
b. Technical preparedness
c. Hire river experts
d. Hire dam experts.