Currents Affairs – Sir Fareed

Floods/Dams/Rivers/Canals
Floods in Pakistan, implications, disaster management

i. Climate change
ii. Carbon emissions
iii. Floods and disaster preparedness
iv. Flood, Implications, food Crisis

1. Pakistan has faced worst floods in history.

2. Balochistan, worst in 160+ years (Quote: CM Balochistan)
a. Most of the massive floods occurred in Koh-e-Suleiman and its adjacent
territories,
b. 40% population of Balochistan affected
c. More than 1500mm rainfall (Met dept.)
3. Sindh never experienced such devastating floods in recorded history (CM quote)
a. Especially coastal areas
b. Majority of influx of water from Balochistan into Sindh
c. More than 1500mmm rains in AUGUST – record of 90+ years
d. Floods in Indus Basin
e. floods in the Indus basin intensify the flood intensity in Sindh
f. Dadu: 13ft + water
g. Thatta, Badin, Shikarpur
h. Floods in INDUS: 904,000 Cusecs of Water in Sukkur Barrage
4. Rainfall in KPK:
i. Malakand – more than 1300mm in August
ii. Rainfall into Malakand region translated into floods in Swat region
iii. Floods in river Kabul
a. Rainfall in Afghanistan generally
b. Especially in Hindukush Region
c. River Swat fall into River Kabul
iv. Kabul falls into Indus
v. Heavy Rainfall in GB & Hazara Div. caused floods in Indus
5. Melting of Glaciers also another reason of floods
6. Punjab:
a. Southern Punjab worst hit
b. Worst floods in Indus basin
c. Rainfall, West, North, South of Indus Basic
d. Jhelum & Chenab, not flooded
 e.
7. Causes of Floods
a. Rainfall
b. In Baluchistan:
i. 7 small dams broke causing floods
ii. Banks of the rivers broken, by Local Governments
iii. Tarbela, Gomal Zam dam & HUB dam were not drained of excess water in
time
c. Deforestation: as deforestation declines the water absorption capacity
d. Encroachments on River banks
e. River swat – encroachment on river bank, hotel was washed away,
f. Excess water from Indian rivers
8. Implications of floods (Sources: NDMA, CM Speeches) (for updated figures wait for NDMA
report on floods):
a. Humanitarian crisis in Pakistan
b. More than 30m people displaced across Sindh
c. Southern Punjab: more than 50% Affected districts
d. Balochistan: min 40% population displaced
e. More than 1500 deaths
f. Outburst of Diseases:
i. Dengue fever
ii. Abdominal problems
g. Increasing food shortage
h. Agricultural destruction:
i. Cotton, rice, sugarcane
ii. Not only crops, but also Livestock destruction, fisheries, forests,
iii. 150,000+ cattle dead in Sindh
iv. Stored grains also destroyed
i. Houses destroyed with household belongings:
i. 1,500,000+ homes destroyed (Completely & partially) (Sindh Govt. information
Minister says)
ii. 50,000+ in Balochistan
j. Communication Infrastructure (NHA):
i. 800+ bridges
ii. 12000km+ roads
iii. 3000km+ railway track damaged+destroyed
iv. Telephone & Internet system damaged
Energy infrastructure
k. Energy infrastructure
l. Electricity transmission lines
m. Gas pipelines (Mostly Sindh & Balochistan)
n. Educational Infrastructure
 o. Hospitals
p. Angelina Jolie says, “I have never seen anything like this before.”
q. Energy infrastructure
Solutions:
 Disaster preparedness
 Flood is a global Problem
 Recurring problem
 Both in developed and developing countries
 Especially in South Asia
 management approach is always not successful
 Pakistan adopted management approach, but this approach has not performed well.
Evidence is 2010 and 2022 floods, so the preparedness approach should be adopted
 Only solution is to build dams
o In July + August, total influx is 42million Acre feet [MAF] of water
o indus basin: around 19 MAf
o Kalabagh Dam capacity: 10 MAf
o Diamer Bhasha Dam: 8.1 MAf
o Muhmand Dam: 1.3 MAF
o Dasu .4 MAF
o 70+ dam sites, medium, large & small….
o Majority of these sites are in Suleiman Range
o 12MAf water flowed from Balochistan to Sindh

o CHINA has managed floods by building 5000 dams, medium & small, 3000 dams in
30 years
o India has built 200 dams, medium, small
o Pakistan: built Tarbela in 1974, Gomal Zam dam
o Alone KPK has more than 450 sites, Balochistan has 70,
 Build Canals
o Most No. of canals built: 1. China, 2. India, 3. Bangladesh
o Increase in Water Life
o Increase in Agriculture
o Controlled the floods
o Bangladesh has managed floods a lot better than Pakistan, they built 3 major canals
o 1991 IRSA agreement: Dams & Canals were supposed to be built:
 Chashma Right Bank Canal II: 460,000 cusecs
 Greater Thal Canal 800000 cusec
 Kachi canal baluchistan
 Narra Canal sindh
o These builds could have decreased the flood intensity by 20%
 Institutional Preparedness:
 o NDMA
o PDMA
o DDMA
o financially, tech, administratively etc
o empower
o NDMA was formed in 2005, before was NCMC
o these authorities should have been empowered financially, technically,
administratively, but they did not
o but instead we witnessed 10 years of overlapping powers, amid CONFUSION
o 2010: 18th Amendment: Disaster management powers devolved to units
o in 2020-22: Provincial Governments returned the powers to the Federal Govt.
o We see 2 Authorities at district level in a time of crisis: 1. Armed Forces 2. District
Administration…with serious limited function
 Writ of the state, comprehensive law passing, zones around river banks. No such law in
Pakistan, but already functional in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka.
 Executive powers to demolish illegal construction
 District govts backing of provincial backing
 Misuse of Stay Order power by low Judiciary.
o Encroachment hotels in Bahrain, Swat: Provincial Government had ordered to demolish but
Judiciary provided STAY ORDERS.
o So, judiciary should reframe their structure to avoid unnecessary stay orders
 100-Billion-dollar loss due to floods.
Why Pakistan Needs Dams

1. to avoid floods in future we need dams

2. Water Life in Pakistan:32 days. Standard:100-120 days
3. Pakistan is facing Acute Shortage of Water
4. we need water for:
a. agricultural usage
b. Domestic Usage
c. Industrial Usage
5. Our dependency on Underground Water has increased tremendously
a. almost 80% of domestic
b. 30% plus agricultural
c. 40% plus industrial use
d. resultant dangerously decline of underground water table
6. Increase in Water life by dams:
a. kala Bagh Dam: 20 days
b. Diamir Bhasha Dam: 15 days
c. Mohmand Dam: 15-20 days
7. Increase agricultural yield
a. Majority of the Dam projects are accompanied by Canals
b. Mohmand Dam will irrigate 300,000 acres land
c. Dasu: over 3000,000 acres
d. Diamir Bhasha: 1.2m acres
8. 30% increase in national agri yield
9. 1974: Tarbela Dam was built:
a. Canal projects
b. Green revolution
c. Agriculture production increased
d. Crops yield translated into industrial yields
e. Cotton industry, milk and meat industry, sugar, flour, rice, etc
f. as agriculture is directly linked with industrialization
10. Cheaper Hydel generation, increase of power generation:
a. 1947-2015: 12000mw
b. 2016-29: 15000mw new installation
c. Dasu: 4300mw
d. DB: 4500mw
e. Suki kinari:883mw
f. Karot Hydropower Project: 720mw
g. Muhmand 2025: 800 mw
h. Cheapest source of Electricity Generation
i. on average per unit production cost from hydrocarbons PKR.23, for PAKISTAN it is currently:
PKR.34
j. 60% oil, Gas, Coal, generated electricity
k. water max cost: PKR.5
11. cheaper electricity would mean massive socio-economic advantages
12. Cheaper industrial, agricultural production, electricity burden
 13. Stop water wastage and stop India from violation PAK needs dams
14. Most of the Water Influx into Pakistan is from May to August. 80%+.
15. Being a coastal country, Pak has to waste water from rivers into Sea. A magnanimous
amount of water. To stop inland incursion of sea. June to August.
16. This has enabled India to wage Water war on Pakistan.
a. Excess flow to cause floods in Pakistan
b. India is using water which cause decline in water of western rivers

Hurdles in Making of Dams

1. Weak economic condition
2. massive budget deficit
a. 21-22: PKR. 4.3tr
b. 20-21: PKR. 4tr
c. 19-20: PKR. 4.1tr
d. Last 5 years average: PKR. 3.5tr
3. Muhmand Dam: $3B+
4. DB: $14B+
5. Dasu: $7B+
6. KBD: $14B+
7. 2018-28: decade of Dams Projects
a. DB
b. DASU
c. Mohmand
8. Lack of Goodwill, lack of will of successive governments…
9. Diamir Bhasha:
10. Inaugurated time & again: 2004, 2008, 2011, 2020
INDUS WATER TREATY
 Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Sutlej, Beyaas to INDIA
 Western River: Jhelum, Chenab & Indus to Pakistan
 Consumption of Indus river waters: 10% India, 90% Pakistan
 India can build DAMS on Western Rivers with consent of Pakistan, can use 10%
 Cannot divert flow of water by barrages
 Problems:
 50% Decline since 1990s: in flow of water of western rivers
 INDIA claims: because of less rainfall; climate change
 PAKISTAN ARGUMENT:
o Climate change is a contributor in declining the flow but rain fall is not the
major contributors. Rain fall only contributes 35% of the overall water in
western river. Main contributor of western rivers is melting of glaciers
 REAL REASON:
o 1. DAMS built by INDIA:
o Kishnaganga, Buglihaar, Salal, Dulhasti, Ratlee, Pak Dual
o 2. Diversion: built Barrages
o 3. Technical: More dams being built
o Tributaries diverted
o Main channel linked
 IMPACTS:
o Water waged by India against Pakistan
o Decline in Agriculture production
o Decline in Hydel generation
 RECOMMENDATION:
o Build the Damned dams
o The more the water need, the lessor the violations by India
o Canals
o Preparedness:
 Preparedness of case against India
 Actual Data of violations made by India
 Visits to the actual Water Projects being undertaken by India (every 6 months,
no visits made by Pakistanis)
 Strong Legal team: 2017: India-Pakistan Water Talks in World Bank, Pakistan
had no Legal Experts in International Law present at the time.
 Dam Experts
 Geneva Convention on Rivers
 Comprehensive understanding of IWT
 Understanding of Upper and Lower riparian

 CONCLUSION:
 o the water life of Pakistan is overwhelming dependent on western rivers. To
stop India from violations, Pakistan has to take above mention steps

 OBAMA in 2010: Water would be the main reason of a Nuclear War between India &
Pakistan

SOURCES for Current Affairs:

 IPRI
 JWT
 Dawn
 ISSI
 Foreign policy