TESLA -- TSLA US Eq

BALANCE SHEET
Yr 0 A Yr 1 E
ASSETS
Cash & ST Investments 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000
% of revenue 50.00% 50.00%
Inventories 2,070,000,000 3,179,816,850
% of COGS 46.21% 40.36%
Total Current Assets 5,570,000,000 6,679,816,850

Property, Plan & Equipment -- Gross 16,050,000,000 24,377,210,371

Accumulated Depreciation 1,020,000,000 2,128,060,432
Net PP&E 15,030,000,000 22,249,149,939
% of revenue 215% 181%
TOTAL ASSETS 20,600,000,000 28,928,966,790

LIABILITIES
ST Debt & Current Portion LT Debt 1,210,000,000 1,451,091,273
Total Current Liabilities 1,210,000,000 1,451,091,273

Long-Term Debt 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000

Necessary to Finance - 8,087,875,517
Other liabilities 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000
Total Liabilities 14,690,000,000 23,018,966,790

Total Equity 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 20,600,000,000 28,928,966,790

NECESSARY TO FINANCE - (0)

INCOME STATEMENT
Yr 0 A Yr 1 E
Car Unit Sales
- Model S 50,945 56,040
- Model X 32,325 42,023
- Model 3 - 50,000
Sales Grow Rate
- Model S 10%
- Model X 30%
- Model 3
ASP by Model
- Model S 95,000 97,850
- Model X 100,000 103,000
- Model 3 - 50,000

Sales/Revenue 7,000,000,000 12,311,782,575

COGS Excluding D&A 4,480,000,000 7,879,540,848
% of revenue 64% 64%
Depreciation & Amortization Expense 947,100,000 1,108,060,432
Total COGS 5,427,100,000 8,987,601,280
Gross Margin 1,572,900,000 3,324,181,295
Gross margin % 22.47% 27.00%
Research & Development 834,410,000 1,273,055,907
% of revenue 11.92% 10.34%
Other SG&A 1,410,000,000 2,230,261,825
% of revenue 20.14% 18.11%
Unusual Expense (74,030,000) -
% of revenue 1.06%
EBIT After Unusual Expense (597,480,000) (179,136,436)
Non-operating Income/Expense 60,450,000 -
% of revenue 0.86%
Pretax Income (657,930,000) (179,136,436)
Income Tax 26,700,000 (53,740,931)
% of revenue 0.38% 0.38%
Net Income (26,700,000) (125,395,506)

EBITDA 349,620,000 928,923,995

Shares outstanding 162,000,000 162,000,000

EPS (0.16) (0.77)

Consensus EPS estimates (7.12)

TSLA US Equity
BALANCE SHEET
Yr 2 E Yr 3 E Yr 4 E Yr 5 E

3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000

50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
4,729,552,613 6,142,483,482 6,722,299,511 5,954,835,365
34.51% 28.66% 22.81% 16.96%
8,229,552,613 9,642,483,482 10,222,299,511 9,454,835,365

35,476,999,184 44,821,722,999 47,469,033,912 40,691,426,125

4,055,567,901 7,069,966,693 11,215,147,857 16,153,992,354
31,421,431,283 37,751,756,306 36,253,886,054 24,537,433,771
147% 113% 79% 45%
39,650,983,896 47,394,239,788 46,476,185,565 33,992,269,136

1,787,748,413 2,094,686,717 2,220,643,161 2,053,922,943

1,787,748,413 2,094,686,717 2,220,643,161 2,053,922,943

7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000

18,473,235,483 25,909,553,071 24,865,542,404 12,548,346,193
6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000
33,740,983,896 41,484,239,788 40,566,185,565 28,082,269,136

5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000

39,650,983,896 47,394,239,788 46,476,185,565 33,992,269,136

(0) 0 (0) (0)

COME STATEMENT
Yr 2 E Yr 3 E Yr 4 E Yr 5 E

61,643 64,726 67,962 71,360

46,225 50,847 53,390 56,059
200,000 400,000 600,000 720,000

10% 5% 5% 5%
 10% 10% 5% 5%
300% 100% 50% 20%

100,786 103,809 106,923 110,131

106,090 109,273 112,551 115,927
51,500 53,045 54,636 56,275

21,416,749,657 33,493,319,917 46,057,568,490 54,876,049,967

13,706,719,781 21,435,724,747 29,476,843,833 35,120,671,979
64% 64% 64% 64%
1,927,507,469 3,014,398,792 4,145,181,164 4,938,844,497
15,634,227,250 24,450,123,539 33,622,024,997 40,059,516,476
5,782,522,408 9,043,196,377 12,435,543,492 14,816,533,491
27.00% 27.00% 27.00% 27.00%
1,876,137,865 2,404,868,218 2,579,289,632 2,206,095,603
8.76% 7.18% 5.60% 4.02%
3,445,281,922 4,708,777,999 5,541,120,268 5,489,172,884
16.09% 14.06% 12.03% 10.00%
- - - -

461,102,620 1,929,550,160 4,315,133,592 7,121,265,004

- - - -
13%
461,102,620 1,929,550,160 4,315,133,592 7,121,265,004
138,330,786 578,865,048 1,294,540,078 2,136,379,501
0.38% 0.38% 0.38% 3.89%
322,771,834 1,350,685,112 3,020,593,514 4,984,885,503

2,388,610,089 4,943,948,953 8,460,314,756 12,060,109,501

162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000

1.99 8.34 18.65 30.77

0.93 4.30 9.73 19.46

Key Assumptions
Annual depreciation % 9%
Future R&D/Revenue 4.2%
Future COGS/Revenue 67.3%
Future SG&A/Revenue 9.7%
Tax rate 30%
Future Inventory/COGS 17%
ASP Growth Rate 3%
Future Net PP&E/Revenue 47.2%
Revenue YOY Change: 386% 59% 27% 73%
YOY Change diff: 46%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
COGS (no DA) % of Rev: 86% 72% 65% 66% 64%
COGS-DA YOY Change Diff -16% -10% 2% -4%