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Summary source of data to estimate fluid movement for all wells in the field
Geostatistics techniques are being used increasingly to model reser- net fluid columns at potential infilllocations, and fluids in-place t~
voir heterogeneity at a wide range of scales. A variety of techniques evaluate recovery efficiencies. Haldorsen et at. l and Bradley et ai. 2
is now available with differing underlying assumptions, complex- describe applications of this surveillance program to evaluate re-
ity, and applications. This paper introduces a novel method of geo- covery efficiencies of the gravity drainage mechanism in Prudhoe
statistics to model dynamic gas-oil contacts and shales in the Prud- Bay. The conventional approach used to map interwell movement
hoe Bay reservoir. of fluids is based on visual interpretations of multi well cross-sec-
The method integrates reservoir description and surveillance data tions of surveillance, reservoir description, production, and comple-
within the same geostatistical framework. Surveillance logs and tion data. This approach is time-consuming, subjective, and does
shale data are transformed to indicator variables. These variables not account explicitly for 3D correlation and cross-correlation of
are used to evaluate vertical and horizontal spatial correlation and fluids and shales. The objective of this paper is to develop a geosta-
cross-correlation of gas and shale at different times and to develop tistical method that overcomes these drawbacks.
variogram models. Conditional simulation techniques are used to Geostatistics provides tools for systematic integration, modeling,
generate multiple three-dimensional (3D) descriptions of gas and and description of data. 3-5 The basic geostatistics tools are vario-
shales that provide a measure of uncertainty. These techniques cap- grams and conditional simulation. Variograms are used to quantify
ture the complex 3D distribution of gas-oil contacts through time. and develop models for spatial correlation and cross-correlation of
We compare results of the geostatistical method with convention- data. Conditional simulation generates reservoir descriptions that
al techniques as well as with infill wells drilled after the study. Pre- honor variogram models, univariate statistics, and conditioning
dicted gas-oil contacts and shale distributions are in close agreement data. Recently, geostatistics methods have been developed to inte-
with gas-oil contacts observed at infill wells. grate geology,6 core,? production,8 seismic,9 and well-test lO data.
The main contribution of this paper is a novel application of geo-
statistics to describe simultaneously dynamic data, such as fluid
Introduction
contacts at different times, and static data, such as shales. The geo-
Geostatistical techniques provide a framework to integrate and statistical method consists of the following three steps: (1) trans-
model several sources of reservoir data at different scales. With re- form fluid surveillance and reservoir description data to indicator
cent developments of high-speed and large-memory computer variables (Conditioning Data section), (2) analyze and model spatial
workstations, geostatistics has become a powerful tool for detailed correlation and cross-correlation of indicators by use of variograms
reservoir analysis, description, and evaluation. These technologies (Variography section), and (3) generate conditional simulation real-
make it possible to integrate geological, geophysical, and petro- izations at different times that honor conditioning data and vario-
physical data for building more realistic reservoir models. grams (Conditional Simulation section). We used results of this
In the Prudhoe Bay field, reservoir description and monitoring method to estimate net fluid columns at infilllocations and to visual-
fluids in-place through time are key elements for field development, ize spatial distributions and interaction between gas and shales in a
reservoir management, and predicting performance for different gravity drainage region in Prudhoe Bay.
reservoir mechanisms. The stakes include reduction of gas and wa-
ter-handling costs, selection of completion and re-completion inter- Prudhoe Bay Databases
vals, selection of better infill well locations, development of better
reservoir simulation models, and reduction of effort required for The primary sources of data used to describe the fluid movement
fluid mapping. through time come from surveillance and zonation databases. These
Prudhoe Bay is the largest field in North America. During 16 years databases contain fluid monitoring and reservoir description data
of operations, the field has produced more than 7 billion barrels of oil. for all wells in the field.
The major producing mechanisms in Prudhoe Bay are gravity drain-
age, waterflood, and miscible gas flood. Interactions among these Surveillance Database. The fluid surveillance database provides
mechanisms, reservoir architecture, and heterogeneities (shales, locations of gas and water intervals along wells at different times.
faults, and fractures of different shapes and sizes) result in complex Prudhoe Bay has a comprehensive fluid-surveillance program
gas and water movement through time. Fig. 1 illustrates the gas based on running the cased-hole compensated neutron logs (CNL's)
movement in a cross-section along the main dip direction in a gravity and pulsed neutron logs (PNL's) at key wells throughout the field
drainage region of the reservoir. Gas movement is affected signifi- and openhole logs at new wells. Dupree ll shows several cased-hole
cantly by shales of varying sizes that may not be continuous between logs examples. The database is updated every year by the field oper-
wells. Gas tends to move underneath shales resulting in isolated gas ators. The gas and water intervals at wells are picked by a team of
tongues or fingers that breakthrough at different times at wells (gas engineers and geologists on the basis of their analysis of surveil-
underruns) and oil regions that are bypassed (oil lenses). Therefore, lance logs, production, completion, and reservoir-description data.
cased-hole logs at different times in a well might show multiple gas-
oil contacts (Fig. 1). For these conditions, it is difficult to interpret and Zonation Database. The zonation database consists of the location
visualize inter-well distribution of gas in 3D. of pay and nonpay zones along all wells in the field. These zones are
Prudhoe Bay operators implemented a comprehensive surveil- identified based on geologic interpretations of cores and logs. Non-
lance program to monitor gas- and water-oil contacts through time pay zones represent shales with a wide range oflength and thickness
in several wells throughout the field. The program is a primary that are correlated to depositional environment. The Prudhoe Bay
reservoir was deposited in fluvial and fluvio-deltaic environments.
Copyright 1997 Society of Petroleum Engineers
Depending upon the depositional environment and faulting, shales
mayor may not be continuous between wells. The database includes
Original SPE manuscript received for review 25 October 1993. Revised manuscript received
12 June 1997. Paper peer approved 31 July 1997. Paper (SPE 26475) first presented at the
mainly floodplain and prodelta shales that are the thickest and most
1993 SPE Annual Technical Conference & Exhibition held in Houston. 3-0 October. continuous shales in Prudhoe Bay.
where h is the lag vector for the separation distance between pairs
Fig. 1-Schematic of gas movement mechanism in Prudhoe Bay.
of data along a specified direction, and np is the number of pairs of
Conditioning Data data separated by a distance IhI. Yg were calculated for different time
intervals (t) and vertical and horizontal directions. These time inter-
The study area is located in the gravity drainage region (Fig. 2). This
vals include all the gas observed in a well from initial conditions to
area covers 7,000 acres and average spacing between wells is about
1,500 ft. There are only a few faults in the study area. a time t. Yg quantifies the variance of data separated by h . Eq. 3 indi-
Conditioning data for the geostatistical analysis consisted of indi- cates that for smalllhl, when gas indicators have same values, the
cator variables generated with surveillance and zonation databases
magnitude ofYg will be small. As Ihl increases, Yg will increase be-
for 59 wells in the study area. For each well, gas intervals at different
cause the gas indicators will tend to be different at large distances.
times and shale zones were transformed into indicators at 1-ft spac-
Beyond a lag distance known as correlation range, Yg stabilizes
ing that indicate presence or absence of gas and shale.
around a value know as the sill. Usually, the sill is close to the vari-
ance. For an indicator variable, the variance is equal p( 1 - p), where
Gas Indicator. The gas indicator is a binary variable given by
p is the mean of the indicator variable (O:s p:S I).
Figs. 4 and 5 show vertical and horizontal gas variograms at three
_
I(s,t)=
{I Gas is present in
OOh .
s@ time t
. ....... ... (1) times for all wells in the study area. Horizontal direction is parallel
g t erWlse to the main dip within the study area (1.4 degrees dip towards the
south). Variograms show that sills increase as time increases be-
Because most wells in the study area are not vertical, the well cause the mean of gas indicators increases with time. The mean of
paths (5) were described with x, y, and z coordinates from gyroscop- gas indicators is directly proportional to in-place gas and increases
ic surveys. The I-ft spacing used for the vertical direction provides with time because of movement of gas into the study area as a result
enough resolution to resolve gas intervals observed in the field . The of gravity-drainage mechanism. Vertical correlation range (Fig. 4)
origin of all the indicators was set equal to the original gas-oil con- decreases from greater than 70 ft in 1980 to approximately 40 ft in
tact (8,575 ft). Fig. 3 shows gas indicators for three time intervals 1990. This reduction of range indicates that spatial variability of gas
for one well. In 1984, the bottom of the first interval (8,670 ft) corre- indicators increases owing to development of multiple gas under-
sponds to the main gas-oil contact and the lower two intervals are runs and oil lenses with time. Data along the horizontal direction are
gas underruns. In 1987, the sizes of the three gas intervals increased, less closely spaced to be able to quantify the correlation range (Fig.
and, in 1991, the two lower intervals collapsed into one interval. 5). Nevertheless, the range appears to increase from about 2,500 ft
These data illustrate that gas movement cannot be described with in 1980 to 6,000 ft in 1990. This increase in correlation range indi-
only one gas-oil contact. cates that interwell connectivity of gas intervals increases with time.
Figs. 6 and 7 show vertical and horizontal models fitted to vario-
Shale Indicator. The shale indicator is a binary variable given by grams of gas indicators for 1991, respectively. These models are in-
put parameters for conditional simulations techniques.
I (S) =
I Shale is present in
0 0 h .
s. ..... .... . .. ...... (2)
s { t erWlse Shale Variograms. Variograms of shale indicators (Ys) were calcu-
lated with the following equation:
The I-ft spacing used to discretize the vertical direction provides
enough resolution to define shale in the database. Fig. 3 shows shale np(~ 2
indicator data for one well. In this well, there are seven shale inter- Ys(~ = ~(t:i L [lis;) - Is(S; + ~]. . .......... . . (4)
vals below the original gas-oil contact. The presence of gas and 2np h) i= 1
shale is mutually exclusive ; only gas or shale can be present at a
location in the reservoir. This equation is similar to Eq. 3, except that shale indicator is not
a function of time.
Variography
Gal Indicators Shale Indicator
Variogram is a geostatistical tool used to quantify spatial correlation of
data as a function of distance and direction. Variograrns of gas and shale
1984 1987 1990
""
.
indicators were used to evaluate, analyze. and model spatial correla-
tion. We analyzed cross-correlation between gas and shale with cross-
variograms. Variogram models are input parameters for conditional
simulation techniques used to generate gas and shale descriptions.
~031
Time
-1980 ,
~ 0.3 - -1984 . 'o. .
,\ ...''',.,:
.
,0
c 1990 ,,
' 0
~ , -.,
.;:
~
,
0,2 J021 ..
'E(J.)
, 0
~011
:~ '#0 /, ,
:I'~/"~,' I ,,' 1\
(J) 0.1 : ~I \' v
:" ,0
(I '/
I,
O++~""'~""''''''''''''""T""'""'' ~r' , , I o
o
0
Figs. 8 and 9 show vertical and horizontal variograms for shale Figs. 10 and 11 show vertical and horizontal gas and shale cross-
indicators for all wells in the study area, respectively. Sills of these variograms for three times. Cross-variograms are negative because
variograms are close to the variance of the data, The vertical vario- gas and shale indicators are mutually exclusive. It can be seen in Eq.
gram (Fig. 8) has a correlation range close to 10ft and hole effect 3,4 5 that when gas is present at one location and shale is present at
between 40 and 60 ft. This hole effect indicates an increase of cor- another location separated by h, then the cross-variogram will be
relation for lags usually longer than the range. Horizontal range is negative. The vertical cross-variograms for 1980 and 1984 are close
2,100 ft (Fig, 9) and corresponds to a distance between one and two to zero for most lags, This cross-correlation is an indication of gas
well spacings. underrun that appeared at late times. The horizontal cross-vario-
grams are close to zero, indicating poor cross-correlation.
Gas and Shale Cross-Variograms. Cross-variograms (Ygxs) be- This apparent lack of cross-correlation between gas and shale is
tween gas and shale indicators were calculated with the following a result of a combination of factors in the proposed indicator vari-
equation: ables (Eqs. I and 2), Cross-variograms can be improved by defining
indicators for more specific categories of data that account better for
gas-movement mechanisms, such as shale types, zones, and gas
movement for smaller time sub-intervals,
0.4 r~~::::::::::::::::=:::::':::::::~'--'--"-I
-1991 Gas Indicator
-1991 Gas Indicator --Model
~ 0.3 - -Model 83
c c
~ ~
'i: 'i:
~, 0.2 ~0.2
,
E
(J.)
E
(J.)
(J) 0.1 (J) 0,1
o~~~~~~~~~~~ o~~~~~~~~~~
o 20 40 60 80 100 o
2000 4Q(X) 6000 8000 10000 12000
Lag, ft Lag, ft
Fig. 6-Vertical variogram and model for 1991 gas indicator. Fig. 7-Horizontal variogram and model for 1991 gas Indicator,
~ 0.2 ~ 0.2
I I
'EQ) E
Q)
(J) 0.1 (J) 0.1
o~-~~~~~~~~ O~~~~~~~~~~~
o 20 40 60 80 100 o 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Lag, ft Lag, ft
Fig. 8-Vertical variogram and model for shale indicator. Fig. 9-Horizontal variogram and model for shale indicator.
tail. Gas and shale IPC are linear combinations of indicators, and tainty. We used conditional simulation to generate 3D descriptions
these are given by of gas and shale in the study area. We used these descriptions to esti-
mate net gas columns at infill well locations and to visualize interac-
Yis, t) = a g.g lis, t) + ag.J/j) ..................... (6) tion between gas and shale through time.
The conditional simulations techniques used in this study are se-
YsCs,t) = as.glis,t) + as.J/j), .................... (7) quential indicator simulation (SISl3) and indicator principal com-
ponent simulation (IPCKS 12). Both techniques belong to the family
where the coefficients a are obtained by decomposition of the
covariance matrix. of sequential simulation algorithms described by Deutsch and Jour-
Figs. 12 and 13 show vertical and horizontal variograms and nel. s The techniques simulate values (i.e., gas or shale indicators)
models for gas and shale IPC at one time. These variograms have the at points selected at random in a grid defined in the simulation area.
same character as indicator variograms for gas (Figs. 4 and 5) and Simulations are conditioned with values previously simulated in the
shale (Figs. 8 and 9). Indicator and IPC variograms are similar be- grid and conditioning data. At each grid point, indicator kriging is
cause of small cross-correlation between gas and shale indicators. used to estimate the distribution function of the variable (i.e., proba-
Therefore, IPC transformation has only a small effect on indicators. bility of occurrence of gas and shale). Then, the simulated value is
The most noticeable difference among indicator and IPC vario-
calculated by drawing a random sample from the estimated distribu-
grams is the magnitude of the semi-variances. In general, variances
of indicators and IPC are different and governed by Eqs. 6 and 7. tion function. Because kriging honors the local mean of the data,
calculated proportions of gas and shale within the simulation area
Conditional Simulation will be close to proportions observed in the surveillance and shale
Conditional simulation is a geostatistical approach to generate mul- data of the closest wells.
tiple realizations that honor several statistical constraints, such as Physics of gas movement are introduced implicitly in conditional
conditioning data and variogram models. Because the realizations simulation method by mechanisms implied in the surveillance data
are equiprobable, conditional simulation is a tool to quantify uncer- and continuity imposed with variograms.
0.06r~
Time ::\~.~.-LI........,.~ ~'''''''''T~.J......~~o~1.~
..LI
Q) ,-----
o
c 003; -1980
co . --1984 - -1984
"i:
co --'1990 '"1990
~
.-e
Q)
'="o.. -0.03
o
-0. 06 +------..--.---,~...........~.,.......,...~_,__._-...--.--t -0.06 ~...,..-,-,~.,...-.--r~...,--,-.,........,...,....,.....,..........f
o 20 40 60 80 100 o 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Lag,ft Lag,ft
Fig. 1o-Vertical traditional cross-semi-variogram for gas and Fig. 11-Horizontal traditional cross-semi-variogram for gas
shale indicators at three times. and shale indicators at three times.
>
ca
I
0.2 000
E
Q)
en 0.1 ~/#Jif
E
Q)
en 0.1 \0 o 1984 Shale IPC
"'-1984 Shale IPC
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Lag, ft Lag, ft
Fig. 12-Vertical semi-variograms and models for 1984 gas and Fig.13-Horizontal semi-variograms and models for 1984 gas
shale IPC. and shale IPC.
Estimation of Net Gas Columns. Net gas column thickness is an cross-correlation between gas and shale indicators is not strong (see
important parameter for selection of infilliocations. Locations with Variography section and Figs. 10 and 11).
small net gas columns are the best targets for infill because these Figs. 17 and 18 show IPCKS realizations of gas at six times and
have thick oil columns. Net gas thickness changes through time be- shale in the simulation area (Fig. 14). These realizations illustrate
cause gas moves into the study area because of the gravity drainage gas movement through time and the complex interaction between
mechanism. gas and shale. Overall, gas moves down structure with time as ex-
We calculated net gas columns with SIS. The objective was to pected in a gravity-drainage process. Gas descriptions from one
compare SIS calculations, actual net gas column thickness from time are correlated to descriptions in later times because surveil-
open-hole logs, and previous field estimates. Fig. 14 shows 19 infill lance data shows correlation from one time to the next and because
locations evaluated. In each infill location, SIS simulated occur- variogram models for each time are consistent with these data. Shale
rence of gas and shales by use of a grid of I-ft resolution defined descriptions change slightly from one time to the next because sur-
from the original gas-oil contact to the reservoir base. These calcula- veillance data bring at each time more information about internal
tions were conditioned only to data available at the time of the evalu- reservoir architecture. These results allowed us to visualize and lo-
ation (Fig. 14) and variogram models estimated from these data (Va- cate gas underruns.
riography section). The thicknesses of net gas columns were
calculated by summing simulated gas and shale indicators along the Conclusions
grid. For each infilliocation, we generated 100 SIS realizations to 1. We used geostatistics to integrate and describe dynamic and
evaluate uncertainty in the estimated net gas column. static reservoir data, such as gas-oil contacts and shales. The geosta-
Fig. 15 shows estimated net gas column thickness for 100 SIS re- tistical method has been used to generate 3D descriptions of gas
alizations at one infilliocation (Fig. 14). For this infill, the mean of through time and shale in Prudhoe Bay reservoir. These descriptions
simulated net gas column thickness (186.4 ft) is in close agreement provide an efficient way to visualize gas movement and interaction
with the actual net gas column (189 ft) from openhole logs. This between gas and shales through time.
mean of the SIS realizations provided an excellent prediction, even 2. The method transforms reservoir data to indicators and uses
though the range (maximum minus minimum net gas column thick- conditional simulation to generate 3D descriptions that honor
ness) of the realizations was 80 ft. In general, the distribution of net
gas column thickness should be used to evaluate overall economic
Inflll Conditioning
risk associated with the infilliocation.
Fig. 16 compares SIS results for 19 infill wells to actual net gas
20000
/well I Well
columns and previous estimates. Previous estimates were based on o 0 0 0
interpretations of several cross-sections of surveillance data. These
o r tr I I:
comparisons show that for 74% of infilliocations, actual net gas col- 600 to 0 0 0 0 ~
.0 0 I
umns are within the range of SIS realizations. For 79% of infillioca- 15000 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 dO
tions, means of SIS realizations are closer to actual net gas columns
V, feet o I ~". 0
than previous field estimates. For net gas thicknesses greater than i'LO 0 0 0 0
0 ./"\0 100 0
0 ..-.
200 ft, SIS results tend to be optimistic while previous estimates
10000
10
I
0 0
8 o.
i9
tend to be pessimistic predictions of oil column at in fill locations.
weuL ~~ O.~Jl.~_\
0 0
...
I
distributions of gas through time and shale. The spatial distribution 5000
of gas is not uniform because of shales that are effective barriers to
Simulation
fluid flow.
Area
The simulation area (Fig. 14) covers 22,400 ft by 13,600 ft. This o~~~~~~~~~~~~+
area was discretized with a grid spacing of 250 ft in the horizontal o 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
direction and 2 ft in the vertical direction. The number of grid-
blocks required for simulation was 734,175. IPCKS honors condi-
X, feet
tioning data and variogram models described in the previous sec- Fig. 14-Location of conditioning data, infill wells, and simula-
tions. In this study, IPCKS and SIS yield similar results because tion area in study area.
~
Well B .t:: II Previous _ =
- Actual Net_ ,.- -- C 250 ~
E
Estimate
Gas Column ::s I
20 -- '0 200
=
~~
(,)
>. tA
u I-- ."
~ 15
:::s
c::r
Q)
-- -
Cl
Q)
C
150
100
f
Lt 10 1:1
~
5
r-- f-- ."
50
~
~ Realizations
Mean of 100 L
o 1----0
130
I
150 170 190 210 230
1ii
w
50
Minimum
O ~--c---r---r--.r--.---+
o 100 150 200 250 300
Estimated Net Gas Column, ft Actual net gas column, ft
Fig. 15-Histograms of 100 realizations of net gas column thick- Fig. 16-Estimated and actual net gas columns thickness for
ness for Well B generated with SIS. 1991 infill wells in study area.
Fig. 17-30 block diagrams of gas and shale indicators generated with IPCKS at six times.
Fig. 18-0ip cross-sections of gas and shale indicators generated with IPCKS at six times.