Research Background and Methodology

Catalogue

Emission inventory ........................................................................................................................................ 1

Health impact assessment ............................................................................................................................ 6

References .................................................................................................................................................... 8

Emission inventory

The first step in assessing the health impacts from coal-fired power plant emissions is obtaining
information on how much is emitted and where the emissions take place. For the purposes of this
project, a database of over 2000 coal-fired power plants. As Chinese government and companies, unlike
their counterparts in e.g. Europe and the U.S. do not report plant-level emission data, the emission data
for the power plants had to be estimated based on national total emissions, reported fleet-level
emission rates of large utilities, available plant-specific information, and national regulation on power
plant emissions. The resulting estimates are robust on the national and company level, to the extent
that reported emission data is accurate, but there are additional uncertainties involved in estimating the
emissions from individual power plants.

Emissions from operating power plants were estimated for year 2011. The operating data of the power
plants is obtained from the China Electricity Council (CEC) yearbook 2012. The publication has data on
installed capacity, operating hours, and thermal efficiency. This data is also used to establish size-
dependent average values for those power plants for which data is missing.

Capacity, more Thermal efficiency Operating

than (MW) (LHV net) hours (h/a)
0 28.4% 3761
20 30.2% 3793
50 31.4% 4302
100 33.3% 5055
300 35.2% 4644
500 36.8% 5322
1,000 38.2% 5537
2,000 39.4% 5928
Table 1. Average operating parameters used for operating power plants lacking data.

Thermal
efficiency
Plant type (LHV net)
Subcritical 39.0%
Supercritical 42.0%
Ultrasupercritical 44.0%
Under construction, 41.4%
steam condition unknown
Planned, steam condition 41.8%
unknown
Table 2. Thermal efficiencies assumed and estimated for new power plants in the Platts database and the WRI Global Coal Risk
Assessment report.

The locations of the power plants were mapped by Greenpeace, up to district or county level, and when
possible, exact coordinates where used. Information on the ownership of the power plants was
obtained from Platts World Electric Power Plants database.

Information on pollution controls installed at the power plants is from Ministry of Environmental
Protection, which maintains a list of all power plants with FGD and de-NOx equipment installed. This
data also has the year of operation for the power plants, which helps establish the emission limit values
applying to each unit at the power plant. However, the power plant listings in the CEC and MEP data do
not completely match each other, and average penetration rates for each province and power plant size
class were applied to those power plants that could not be matched between the two databases.

Power plant efficiency was based on steam conditions (subcritical, supercritical or ultrasupercritical)
reported in the WEPP database. All power plants commissioned after 2011, and those still in the
pipeline, were assumed to have both FGD and de-NOx equipment installed, and to meet the new 2011
emission standards. This is a conservative assumption, given that the existing power plant fleet still does
not meet the old 2003 standard.

Data on coal quality, namely flue gas volume and mercury content, comes from USGS World Coal Quality
Inventory. First, average values of all thermal coal samples were calculated from the database for each
province. Second, the average values for traded coal were estimated by taking average of values for
each province weighted by their coal exports. Lastly, the average values for coal burned in each province
were estimated by calculating the average of the values for the provinces domestic coal and traded
coal weighted by the percent of coal that the province imports. Flue gas volume per energy input
(Nm3/GJ) was calculated by first converting the energy content given in the database from Higher
Heating Value (HHV) to Lower Heating Value (LHV), using an empirical formula provided by World Coal
Institute (2007):

LHV = HHV - 0.212H- 0.0245M- 0.0008O,

where LHV and HHV are given in MJ/kg; M is percent moisture, H is percent hydrogen and O is percent
oxygen (from ultimate analysis on net as received basis). Flue gas volume per kg of fuel is calculated on
the basis of the empirical formula in European Standard EN 12952-12.

Flue gas volume1 Mercury content

3
Province (Nm /GJ) (mg/GJ)
Anhui 344.9 7.8
Beijing 356.6 7.4
Chongqing 349.5 4.9
Fujian 359.4 3.8
Gansu 348.5 2.2
Guangdong 354.5 3.5
Guangxi 354.4 5.1
Guizhou 347.8 9.1
Hebei 350.9 4.5
Heilongjiang 345.1 2.9
Henan 347.6 7.9
Hubei 354.5 3.9
Hunan 353.2 5.2
Inner Mongolia 345.8 10.5
Jiangsu 353.6 4.6
Jiangxi 352.1 7.9
Jilin 346.3 4.2
Liaoning 349.9 6.1
Ningxia 348.2 11.8
Qinghai 348.6 2.8
Shaanxi 342.4 7.5
Shandong 350.3 4.4
Shanxi 347.3 6.4
Sichuan 348.4 4.0
Xinjiang 347.1 1.4

1
On dry, normal temperature and pressure and 6% O 2 basis, in line with the Chinese emission standards.
Yunnan 345.6 5.7
Table 3. Average properties estimated for the coal burned in each province.

Based on these data, air pollution emissions for each power plant were first calculated assuming that all
power plants meet the national emission standards applying to them. After this, the emission rates were
adjusted so that the total modeled emissions from all power plants and from each company's power
plants match the reported total. Total emissions of acid gases and particulate matter from the power
sector were taken from China Environment Statistical Yearbook 2012 (National Bureau of Statistics
2013). Information on the emissions of large power companies is compiled from the companies' CSR
reports. It was also ensured that the total power plant emissions make up a reasonable share of the
reported total emissions of each province.

Pollutant stack emission

Power plant limits (mg/Nm3)
commissioning date SO2 NOx TSP
2004 or later 400 450 50
before 2004 400 650 50
before 1997 1200 1100 200
2012 or later 100 100 30
new power plants in key 50 100 20
regions
Table 4. Stack emission concentration limits applying to operating power plants in 2011, and to new power plants. 2

Power plant mg/Nm3

commissioning date SO2 TSP
2004 or later 1200 100
before 2004 1200 100
before 1997 1200 200
Table 5. Exceptions to general emission limits appying to power plants burning domestic low-sulphur coal in Chongqing,
Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia.

TSP emissions were converted to primary PM10 and PM2.5 emissions using the emission factors in U.S.
EPA AP-42:

TSP to PM10 0.675

TSP to PM2.5 0.300
Table 6. Ratios between different size ranges of particulate matter.

Emission rate (g/kWh)

Company SO2 NOx TSP
China Power Investment 2.36 3.23 0.3
Huadian 2.4 3.0 0.3
Datang International Power 0.38 1.33 0.12

2
GB 13223-2011 Emission standard of air pollution for thermal power plants
Datang total 1.92 3.17 0.29
Huaneng Power International 0.57 1.55 N/R
Huaneng total N/R N/R N/R
Guodian 2.14 N/R N/R
China Resources Power 0.56 1.35 0.38
Guangdong Yudean 0.44 1.36 0.07
Shenhua 0.21 0.87 0.1
Table 7. Air pollution emission rates as reported in key power companies' CSR reports for 2011 (N/R=not reported).

Mercury emissions were estimated based on the average mercury content of coal as shown above, and
removal rates associated with different pollution controls according to Wu et al (2009). Estimated
mercury emissions were 20% lower than in the earlier estimate for 2005 by Streets et al (2008), which is
in line with the increased penetration of FGD equipment and increased coal consumption in the power
sector.

ESP 29.4%
ESP+FGD 69.0%
coal washing 30.0%
Table 8. Mercury removal rates of different technologies according to Wu et al. (2009).

Stack parameters (stack height and diameter, flue gas temperature and velocity) are required for
estimating how high the flue gases rise initially, which influences their dispersion. Actual stack
parameters were compiled for a few power plants in Beijing and Shanghai, but for the vast majority, this
information was not readily available. Zhou et al (2006) argue that Chinese power plants are built to
very similar engineering standards and most power plants will conform with the guideline values.
Furthermore, their results show that the total health impacts are not particularly sensitive to varying the
assumed stack parameters within feasible range. Recommended values for the stack parameters were
taken from Lan et al (2011), except for flue gas temperature, typical European values from Pregger &
Friedrich (2009) were used.

Stack height (m)

New Flue gas
Capacity, up Existing power temperature Exit velocity Diameter
to (MWe) power plant plant (C) (m/s) (m)
25 80 80 140 14 4
50 100 100 140 23 4
200 120 150 140 20 4
300 150 180 140 20 4
800 180 240 110 30 7
1,200 210 240 100 30 7
8,000 240 240 100 30 7
Table 9. Stack parameters used for modeling when plant-specific data is not available (most modeled sources).
Selection of the directly modeled sources was done by first dividing the modeling domain into a 0.5x0.5
grid, and selecting the largest source within each grid cell that contained at least 1200MW of coal-fired
capacity. Additional sources were selected to maximize the share of total emission inventory that is
modeled directly, to maximize spatial coverage and to maximize coverage of key regions (Beijing-Tianjin-
Hebei, Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas). The directly modeled sources cover 50% of coal-fired
capacity, 43% of estimated SO2 emissions in 2011, and 41% , 40% and 48% of NOx, TSP and mercury
emissions, respectively.

Health impact assessment

The health impacts resulting from the exposure to PM2.5 were estimated using concentration-response
functions adapted from the WHO Global Burden of Disease 2010 project (Lim et al 2012). The study is
the most up-to-date and authoritative look into preliminary deaths caused by PM2.5 in China and
globally, and developed a new risk model with emphasis on applicability at high average concentrations.
The risk functions in the model level off at high concentrations, taking into account the findings showing
that risk for the same concentration increase is higher at low concentrations. Total mortality is
evaluated as a sum of four cause-specific mortality risks: stroke, lung cancer, Ischemic Heart Disease
(IHD), and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). These four causes are responsible for 45% of
total deaths in China. The cause-specific approach provides better transferability from one country to
another than earlier approaches that used all-cause mortality as the indicator, and provides a
breakdown of the causes of the preliminary deaths attributed to PM2.5 from coal-fired power plants.

If the concave risk functions from Global Burden of Disease 2010 were used directly to attribute impacts
on different sectors, the sum total of impacts attributed to all sectors would be smaller than the actual
total impacts. For this reason, based on a recommendation from the report authors (Burnett&Cohen
2013), average impacts for a 10 g/m3 increase over the observed concentration range were used for
attribution. The average risk ratio was calculated for each mortality risk as
()

=15g/m3 RR(c 10g/m3 )
= ,
15g/m3

where () is the ratio of mortality risk at concentration to the risk at a counterfactual no-harm
concentration, and is the population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration, taken to be 60 g/m3
(the average concentration estimated for China for Global Burden of Disease 2010 by Brauer et al (2012)
was 55 g/m3). The summation is started from 15 g/m3, because this represents the no-harm
concentration in the risk model (5 g/m3) plus the concentration increase for which is calculated
(10 g/m3).

Non-fatal health impacts were evaluated by using concentration-response functions recommended by

Kan et al (2005) for health impact assessment in China, when available. The response functions were
applied conservatively, using the factor for PM10 health effects for exposure to PM2.5. The Kan et al
functions were complemented with functions for infant mortality, lost working days and sickness days
from literature, following WHO recommendations. Recent epidemiological evidence on the link between
PM2.5 and risk of low birth weight in babies was used from a new nine-country study. While overall
mortality is estimated on the basis of all-cause mortality, cause-specific factors are used to complement
the analysis and provide a breakdown of causes of death.

Application of these response functions requires data on the age structure of the Chinese population,
and on baseline incidence of the different health conditions. These were obtained from official statistics,
with the exception that World Bank data on low birth weight, and data from academic studies done in
China on asthma, were used.

Concentration-response function
Increase per
Health impact Pollutant Age group 10g/m3 Reference
Stroke mortality PM2.5 30- 12.2% (3.2%-14.8%)
Lung cancer mortality PM2.5 30- 5.6% (1.7%-7.4%)
Lim et al 2012;
COPD mortality PM2.5 30- 4.1% (1.9%-5.7%)
Burnett&Cohen 2013
Ischemic heart disease
PM2.5 30- 5.5% (3.9%-9.0%)
mortality
Woodruff et al 1997
1-12
Infant mortality PM10 4% (2%7%) (in Hurley et al 2005)
months
Dadvand et al 2013
Low birth weight PM2.5 newborns 10% (3%18%)
Asthma, children PM10 0-15 6.95%
Asthma, adults PM10 16- 0.4% (0.0%0.8%)
Chronic Bronchitis PM10 all 4.6% (1.5%7.7%)
Respiratory Hospital
PM10 all 1.3% (0.1%2.5%)
Admission Kan et al 2005
Cardiovascular Hospital
PM10 all 0.95% (0.6%1.3%)
Admission
Outpatient Visits (internal
PM10 all 0.34% (0.19%0.49%)
medicine)
Outpatient Visits (pediatrics) PM10 all 0.39% (0.14%0.64%)
Sick leave days PM2.5 15-64 4.6% (3.9%5.3%)
Ostro 1987 (in Hurley
et al 2005)
Restricted activity days PM2.5 18-64 4.8% (4.2%5.3%)
Table 10. Concentration-response relationships used to estimate health impacts of particulate matter exposure.

Baseline
incidence or
Health impact prevalence Unit Reference
Stroke mortality 0.14% deaths per year Ministry of Health 2011
Lung cancer mortality 0.04% deaths per year Ministry of Health 2011
COPD mortality 0.06% deaths per year Ministry of Health 2011
Ischemic heart disease
0.08% deaths per year Ministry of Health 2011
mortality
Infant mortality 1.21% National Bureau of Statistics
deaths per year
2012
Low birth weight 2.34% cases per year World Bank 2012
Asthma, children 1.97% cases Chen 2003
Asthma, adults 1.42% cases To et al 2012
Chronic Bronchitis 0.69% cases Ministry of Health 2011
Respiratory Hospital Admission 1.02% cases per year Ministry of Health 2011
Cardiovascular Hospital 1.37%
cases per year Ministry of Health 2011
Admission
Outpatient Visits (internal 31%
cases per year Ministry of Health 2011
medicine)
Outpatient Visits (pediatrics) 13% cases per year Ministry of Health 2011
Sick leave days 2.34 workdays per year Ministry of Health 2011
Restricted activity days 39.96 workdays per year Ministry of Health 2011
Table 11. Baseline incidence of health conditions included in health impact assessment. For asthma and chronic bronchitis, the
epidemiological relationship applies to prevalence, not annual incidence of new cases.

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