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The Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010) 127–131

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The Journal of Socio-Economics


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/soceco

The credit crunch: Ideological, psychological and epistemological perspectives


Alan Lewis
University of Bath, Department of Psychology, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Two economic interpretations of the credit crunch are outlined and the question posed whether these are
Received 1 February 2010 incommensurate ideological positions. Psychological perspectives are then explored including insights
Accepted 11 February 2010 from cognitive and social psychology. The argument is made that policy options depend on what consti-
tutes the ‘good society’ and whether the culture of financial institutions can be changed by government
JEL classification: intervention, social pressure and human agency. It is concluded that those interested in socio-economics
G01
have a duty to engage with alternative discourses.
B41
© 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
B59

Keywords:
Financial crisis
Psychological aspects

Economic crises are as inevitable as rain in an English summer; becoming the main stockholder of major banks was taken up first by
yet exactly when it is going to rain is irritatingly unpredictable. The the Irish government and shortly after by the UK government acting
financial problems of 2008 may have features not seen before but as guarantors for investors. Effectively the US had little choice but
boom and bust cycles have been with us for some time, viz. the tulip to follow suit, or risk vast amounts of money flowing to the UK and
frenzy in 17th Century Holland, the South Seas Bubble of the 18th Ireland. The truly global nature of capital markets has never before
Century and the stock market boom and bust of the 1920s. There been made so starkly apparent. Statements from the G20 summit
seems to be a dimming of collective memory, myopia in the face of underlined the importance of nations making decisions of these
history, where the next cycle takes us completely by surprise. kinds in consultation with one another. Eye-catching statements
There is some consensus about the causes of the economic prob- were also made about the need to curtail greed and inappropriate
lems of 2008 and beyond. In a nutshell, financial institutions lent bonuses in the financial and banking sectors. Financial legislation
money they did not have to people who could not pay it back. To should have sharper teeth so that bankers would not be allowed to
put it more technically, the problem was with ‘leverage’: banks bor- make these kinds of mistakes again. And finally longer-term finan-
rowed money to lend to sub-prime mortgagees producing ‘toxic cial plans need to be put in place to “build an inclusive, green and
assets’ as the bubble in the housing market burst and interest rates sustainable recovery” (G20, 2009).
went up. With the fall of Lehman Brothers many feared a global While the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, in a statement in
melt-down of financial markets and in September 2008 both the 2008 pronounced that the crisis heralded the end of excessive greed
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, and the French and laissez-faire economics, the French Finance Minister, Christine
Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde, described it as the worst finan- Lagarde, has been more cautious. She has voiced concerns that the
cial crisis since World War II (BBC ‘The Love of Money’ 2009). The rhetoric of the G20 statements may be empty as very little has yet
loss of confidence in the banking world meant action had to be been done to control financial excess and she is concerned that the
taken. In the US a policy was put to Congress for the state to buy ‘old’ culture of financial institutions will return very rapidly as if
the toxic assets so that banks could start lending again. With a nothing had happened at all (BBC, 2009).
US election not far away, Republicans in particular were sceptical
and many voters believed that this form of government interven-
tion was a kind of socialism incompatible with their ‘free market’ 1. Two discourses
principles. The policy was defeated in Congress; consequently the
stock markets fell heavily again. The more radical policy of the state Rather surprisingly, given extensive sympathy for ‘free market’
economics, particularly in the US, the following three part discourse
has become the most common one in 2009, i.e. (1) government
intervention is essential in order to secure stability in financial
E-mail address: a.lewis@bath.ac.uk. markets; (2) financial surveillance and financial regulation need

1053-5357/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.socec.2010.02.015
128 A. Lewis / The Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010) 127–131

to be tightened; and (3) key banking actors must be incentivised is dedicated to the study of thinking, reasoning and decision-
differently in order to avoid short-term profits and excessive greed. making. A considerable literature has now built upon cognitive
A completely difference discourse is presented in an edited book psychology and financial decision-making. Attention was drawn
by Philip Booth (2009), ‘Verdict on the Crash: Causes of Policy Impli- to the studies not only by the pioneering work of Kahneman and
cations.’ Here the thesis is that the financial crash of 2008 was not Tversky (1979) but by the ‘Anomalies’ series in the Journal of Eco-
caused by ‘market failure’, rather it was caused by ‘government fail- nomic Perspectives by Richard Thaler (1992). The latter took the
ure’. The US government in particular, through a process of ‘social broad view that the assumptions of REM are essentially correct but
engineering’, must bear considerable blame, it is argued. Driven by a that people are prone to persistent heuristic biases which need to
policy of inclusion and a belief that home ownership provides both be identified and added to the model in order to make it more in
economic and political stability and a greater chance for poorer peo- keeping with the empirical world (for some commentators so many
ple to pursue wealth and happiness led to Fannie Mae and Freddie of these ‘anomalies’ have been identified that it is not clear what
Mac, with explicit government targets to provide mortgage finance one should do with them all, with the feeling, certainly among
to poorer households, taking too many risks. Furthermore, financial some economists, that we might just as well return to REM una-
regulators have failed to act quickly enough, or in an appropriate mended). In contrast Gigerenzer and Selten (2001) have claimed
way to avert the crisis; they should therefore not be rewarded for that far from heuristic biases being exceptions to rationality, they
their inefficiency by having yet more regulatory powers at their constitute an ‘adaptive toolbox’ which allows people to make fast
disposal. The authors further argue that serious systemic problems and frugal decisions, which in our animal past may have increased
have not arisen amongst unregulated institutions and that regu- survival ratios.
latory systems encourage complexity and a lack of transparency. Heuristics which may be helpful in one context are unlikely to
Perhaps most radical of all is the advocacy that banks should be apply to all and it seems plausible that some may be maladaptive
allowed to fail (albeit in an orderly way).1 This is all reminiscent in the context of the financial crisis of 2008 and beyond. The idea is
of Adam Smith’s ‘invisible’ hand where the natural order of things that everyone is prone to maladaptive thinking, including financial
should be allowed to return and that bubbles and economic crises experts and ‘lay’ people. This may help explain a bubble as a signif-
are an integral part of the system; rather like forest fires, where icant number of people making the same errors at the same time
growth is more vigorous afterwards. and in the case of ‘herding’ are reassured by the fact that people are
What becomes clear is that economists do not agree with one behaving in similar ways.
another and it is tempting to interpret this as a battle between two One aspect of ‘maladaptive thinking’ relevant to the recent
belief systems or ideologies where one group believes that markets housing bubble is ‘optimum bias’. Moore et al. (1999) reported
should be left alone to resolve problems naturally as they arise, an investment experiment with MBA students finding that over-
where the other believes that government intervention is essential confidence and false optimism are rife when stocks are rising;
to correct market failure. Most economists see their discipline as participants were even optimistically biased about past per-
being guided by the tenets of logical positivism and analytic science, formance. These (and other) findings could be relevant when
a central tenet being that analysis should be value free. Yet it is understanding bubbles—people get over-optimistic and ‘forget’
difficult to see how these competing claims can be resolved by any past failures.
kind of empirical test as these belief systems are resistant to change, The optimism bias is probably caused by an illusion of control,
comprising, in a Kuhnian sense, incommensurate paradigms. of being better than average. Sutherland (1992) for example has
Faced with the crisis, policy makers had to be seen to be ‘doing recorded that 95% of British drivers think they are better than aver-
something’, and quickly. So which of the two discourses could age. Over-optimistic stock market traders can be less likely to make
be drawn on? The problem with the non-intervention approach, a profit (Fenton O’Creery et al., 2003). Furthermore when things are
invoking the ‘invisible hand’, is that it could easily be seen as ‘doing going well traders tend to attribute success to their own know-how
nothing’. Research in sociology concerning ‘moral panics’ (Goode, and expertise: when things go badly there is a strong tendency
1994) and ‘attribution theory’ in social psychology (Jaspers et al., to blame things that are beyond the traders’ control. This phe-
1983) has convincingly shown that there is a fundamental human nomenon appears to be widespread and is termed in psychology
need to take action, to interpret, understand and blame when a as ‘the fundamental attribution error’. These individual tenden-
salient event incurs. Politicians know this and had to respond in cies are also linked to more social aspects (which will be revisited
order to maintain the support of the electorate. Doing nothing later) such as ‘herding’. Given that over-confidence is widespread,
was not an option politically, as Lawrence Summers, Director of a trader will be perceived by others, including those who make
the White House National Economic Council put it at a speech at decisions about bonuses, as behaving conventionally when mak-
the Brooking Institution about the crisis: “There is room for debate ing similar decisions to others (although the traders are still likely
about how regulation should be enhanced, but not I suggest about to attribute successes to themselves). Being conventional is also a
whether we should stay with the status quo,” (p. 15) and “If my defence when profits fall.
speech was intended to persuade you of one thing, if you didn’t There is also evidence for confirmation bias (Wason and
agree with anything else, it was that this was not a set of economic Johnson-Laird, 1972) where when people have an idea in their
processes that would simply automatically fix themselves if you heads (and in our case that house prices/stocks will continue to
didn’t act” (p. 37) (Summers, 2009). Politicians and their advisors, rise) people have a strong tendency to look for evidence which con-
acting in their own interests and the political context of sustaining firms their view, and pay less attention to evidence that does not
popularity, favoured regulation and the bailing out of banks. fit. There is an enormous amount of financial data which is readily
available and it can be manipulated, to some extent to support a
2. Individual and cognitive psychology number of quite contradictory hypotheses.
The money illusion has also probably made things worse as there
Much of behavioural economics has been influenced by only one is a tendency for people only to consider nominal values. In this case
branch of psychology: cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology the profits that people expected from house sales were unrealisti-
cally high as inflation tends to be underestimated. Also all house
prices of course were rising for most people; even after a sale you
1
These points are tempered by others which recommend, for instance, enhanced still need to buy another house. The money illusion also makes
market disclosures by banks to shareholders. mortgage loans more attractive.
A. Lewis / The Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010) 127–131 129

3. Social influences participants. Participants soon followed the crowd, especially when
reputational motivation was highly pertinent.
‘Groupthink’ (Janis, 1982) is a kind of over-confidence at a
social level which can lead to disaster. Janis has characterised the
antecedents of ‘groupthink’ as excessive group cohesiveness, ide- 4. Psychology used by economists
ological homogeneity and high stress. The symptoms comprise
feelings of invulnerability and a tendency to discredit informa- In his book ‘The sub-prime solution’ Robert Shiller mentions
tion at odds with the unanimity of the group. According to Janis ‘Psychology’ quite a few times yet cites very few studies and
these tendencies result in poor decision-making and he has used has chosen not to go into any depth (Shiller, 2008). He consid-
them to interpret the 1961 Bay of Pigs fiasco and the 1941 ers that there is a ‘psychological’ belief that house prices ‘ought’
defence of Pearl Harbour; it is also a useful interpretation of highly to go up, partly based on something like a 14 year run of house
stressed and closed-minded financial institutions competing with price increases in the US. He then draws on sociology (and, to an
one another in a booming market where principal agents become extent, on narrative and discursive psychology, without saying so)
deaf to news, or warnings that do not fit the powerfully prevail- in describing the ‘new era’ of self-reinforcing stories which sus-
ing group view. There is a strong tendency for groups (including tain ‘irrational exuberance’, the stories themselves becoming part
financial experts) to develop a collective ‘wisdom’ which is hard to of a social contagion legitimised by the press and financial experts
shake. which are rarely analysed or questioned. ‘Psychology’ appears again
When large numbers of people believe in the same things, for in a persuasive paragraph on page 47: “Psychological, epidemio-
example that house prices will continue to rise, has been called logical and economic theory all point to an environment in which
the ‘bandwagon effect’ (Leibenstein, 1950; De Bondt and Forbes, feedback of enthusiasm for speculative assets, or feedback of price
1999). Information signals become homogenised in the investment increases into further price increases, can be expected to produce
community (and elsewhere) and ways of thinking become socially speculative bubbles from time to time.”
and professionally shared. Akerlof and Shiller (2009) mention the importance of the money
There are a whole host of overlapping theories and approaches illusion, Keynesian ‘Animal Spirits’ and the role of ‘confidence’ (or
which are relevant including social influence (Festinger, 1954), lack of it) in modern macroeconomics. They also reintroduce the
social learning (Bandura, 1977) and social dependence. What all concept of morality to economic thinking as they argue that “the
these approaches have in common is the belief that decisions of business cycle is connected to fluctuations in personal commitment
all kinds, including financial decisions, are rarely (and perhaps to principles of good behaviour and to fluctuations in predatory
never) made in isolation. We continually look to others for informa- activity, which in turn is related to changes in opportunities for
tion and verification. These social influences become so powerful such activity.” (p. 38). There is a recognition that unprincipled pur-
during bubbles that the ‘madness of crowds’ (and the promise of suit of profit can arise when opportunities present themselves,
huge financial gains) can dupe even extremely clever people. Sir when punishments and disincentives are not in evidence and where
Isaac Newton lost a huge sum when the South Sea Bubble burst ‘everybody else is doing it.’ In addition to this there are cultural
(Schachter et al., 1986). It could be wrong, however, to suggest shifts in ‘animal spirits’ where unbridled pursuit of self-interest
that contemporary social psychology unequivocally adheres to the and aggressively competitive predatory activities compete with
‘madness of crowds’ thesis. The classic work of Le Bon (1908) based co-operative behaviour as the dominant norm. Akerlof and Shiller
on descriptions of the crowds during the 19th Century French revo- conclude: “Because these cultural changes are difficult to quantify,
lution does indeed describe how when part of an organised crowd and fall outside the field of economics, they are rarely connected
“man descends several rungs on the ladder of civilisation . . .. he by economists to economic fluctuations. They should be.” (p. 39).
may be a cultivated individual; in a crowd he is a barbarian . . .. a Rapp (2009), drawing heavily on the work of Galbraith (which
creature acting by instinct” (p. 12). Attempting to maximise utility links to the mass hysteria model of crowd behaviours, e.g. Le Bon,
in the form of wealth is probably one such basic instinct. Le Bon 1908) asserts that “It is impractical to attempt to outlaw mass finan-
writes that in such situations people lose personal responsibility cial euphoria that seems to be imbedded in the human psyche.”
for their actions; ideas spread rapidly through a process of conta- The underlying assumption is that individuals thinking alone are
gion. However, Reicher (1984) and Reicher and Potter (1985) show more intelligent than groups. Greed means we have short memo-
that crowds can be orderly and engender a positive social identity ries and ignore history. Momentum buying is generated by greed
and that rather than talking about losing identity and responsibil- which ignores the original stimulus for the boom, where real value
ity it is better to think about ‘changes’ of awareness and behaviour. becomes irrelevant.
It should also be stressed that much of ‘traditional social psychol- That economists should want to include aspects of psychol-
ogy’ stresses that groups are bad for you (e.g. Zimbardo’s Stanford ogy in their writings is welcome news to psychologists, who have
Prison experiment) but groups can be good for you too, providing been pressing for this for quite some time. Consistent findings
a sense of belonging as well as allowing, in some instances at least, from experimental studies in cognitive psychology may well be
superior decisions to be made than those made individually. In a of considerable use in microeconomics. The more broad-brush
study by Treynor (1987) participants had to guess, on their own, approach of macroeconomics (including speculations about the
how many jelly beans were in a jar (there were 850). The aggregate credit crunch) draws more commonly, and rather loosely in com-
answer was 871 where only one of the participants (there were 56 parison, from approaches in social psychology and sociology. In
of them) did better. addition some economists, notably Keynes and Galbraith, make
‘Herding’ is a similar concept used in the behavioural finance bold claims about human motives and the human condition from
literature. When herding occurs people follow the choices made by which most psychologists would shy away. For this liaison to con-
others independently from their private information. Also devia- tinue to be productive there is a case for attempting to identify
tion from others may incur reputational costs: according to Hong empirically and quantify ‘animal spirits’ and, more generally, the
et al. (2000) younger portfolio managers are less likely to devi- epistemological status of these assertions. Akerlof and Shiller’s
ate from the consensus compared to older ones as their reputation idea that there are cultural shifts between periods where unfet-
has yet to be made. In an experiment by Cote and Sanders (1997) tered self-interest dominates over co-operative behaviour and vice
participants were asked to predict future returns individually. Sub- versa recommends that ‘animal spirits’ are not fixed like biologi-
sequently they were supplied with the average predictions of the cal instincts. It also suggests that we need not always be enslaved
130 A. Lewis / The Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010) 127–131

by our ‘irrational exuberances’. In a light-hearted fashion Akerlof unwilling to be out of step with others who are ‘trading’ rather
and Shiller use the popularity of poker over contract bridge as a than ‘investing’. These are also governed by long-held cultural and
proxy for recent cultural shifts. Something more tangible would be social expectations and conventions, which include how financial
possible like tracing charitable giving or changes in attitudes and markets work, the convention of reviewing fund manager perfor-
values measured by international social surveys over time (Jones mance over short periods and concentrating on ‘tangible’ financial
et al., 1998). criteria (SRI criteria are viewed as ‘intangible’). Juravle and Lewis
(2008) have followed up Guyatt’s research, revealing that there are
5. The good society, culture and human agency impediments to change at individual, organisational and institu-
tional levels.
One way of elaborating on Akerlof and Shiller’s note on cultural Some hope comes in the form of human agency and the role
shifts is to consider two versions of the ‘good society’. The first of SRI ‘champions’ (Juravle and Lewis, 2009; Lewis and Juravle, in
version, perhaps the dominant one, can be summarised by the list press). These champions recognise that SRI faces powerful imped-
of features below: iments as, for instance, SRI is considered to be unconventional
and when SRI out-performs conventional funds the establishment
• A belief that individuals, acting alone and following their own tends to deride them. One interviewee made it plain that some
mainstream fund managers think of SRI advocates as ‘love-in,
self-interest, in the world of finance and elsewhere, provide ben-
bearded, sandal-wearing, tree-hugging and teetotal vegetarians’.
efits for society. Government ‘intervention’ should be kept to a
However, there have been some successes in introducing 3-year
minimum and, in the ideal world, removed altogether.
• ‘Rational Economic Man’ is a pretty accurate depiction of human rolling performance indicators to combat short-termism. SRI advo-
cates have learned to share the narratives and language of the
nature which should inform policy.
• The sole responsibility of business is to maximise profits for City and have fought their corner arguing that SRI is ‘material’
rather than ‘immaterial’, ‘financial’ rather than ‘extra-financial’.
shareholders.
• Materialism, egoism and the pursuit of wealth are laudable per- Their acceptance has been aided by EU trading schemes which
price externalities; the UN Principles for Responsible Investment,
sonal values which lead to happiness.
the Carbon Disclosure Project and the Enhanced Analytics Initia-
tive. In short they have succeeded not by trying to make financial
The second version of the good society can be depicted as fol- institutions more moral but by making the case for SRI in a language
lows: that can be understood.

• The government should act as a ‘benevolent dictator’, correcting


market failure. 6. Conclusions and speculations
• Alternative models of man, including the recognition of implicit
as well as explicit motivations, should inform policy. How the credit crunch came about and what to do about it is con-
• Business should be socially responsible. tested within the discipline of economics. Two camps have been
• Post-materialism, concern for others and the pursuit of wellbeing identified: one which supports the current policy of government
are laudable personal values which lead to happiness. ‘intervention’ and the second which (with caveats) believes that
banks should have been allowed to fail. While the discipline of eco-
It would be foolish perhaps to believe that only the first or nomics prides itself in its adherence to positivism, the case is made
the second version should dominate exclusively as some kind of that the two positions are ideologically driven. Furthermore it is dif-
balance needs to be struck between them, e.g. the pursuit of self- ficult to imagine any empirical test which would help in choosing
interest may be essential for the working of efficient markets but between these competing schools of economic thought.
not when self-interest mutates into unbridled greed. Neither is Socio-economics would do well to recognise that these debates
society homogenous: it would not do if everyone was a wealth max- are not purely technical matters where it can be demonstrated
imiser as we need people in the caring professions, in health and which interpretation is correct and which is not. Drawing from
education as well. However there is an argument that too much The Sociology of Scientific Knowledge literature (Mulkay, 1985)
emphasis has been placed on the first model in recent years at the it is more useful to view the pursuit of scientific progress as a
expense of the second and that predominance of the first model is continuing battle between advocates, in the press, in books and
partly to blame for the current crisis. scientific journals, conferences or wherever debates take place.
Within financial institutions the first model is pervasive and The prize is to gain the upper hand where the legitimacy of
is underpinned by traditionally masculine and conservative value the favoured explanation becomes difficult to challenge, or bet-
systems. New recruits have to learn the language and accept the ter still becomes culturally embedded and implicit. There is no
culture quickly if they are to survive (Juravle and Lewis, 2009). static technical matrix to be filled in whether it is research in main-
For Guyatt (2008, 2009), when considering institutional investors, stream economics, behavioural, social or experimental economics.
there are three characteristics of organisational culture which are Socio-economics should embrace the notion that knowledge is
unhelpful, namely lack of social responsibility, short-termism and continually contested and there is merit in analysing competing
conventional thinking. There is some evidence that socially respon- discourses and the claims that are made.
sible investing (SRI) is growing due to changes in preferences and Some of the psychological perspectives drawn on in this paper
value systems, the influence of market innovators and a degree are not ideologically neutral either as it has been advocated that
of pushing from governments (Lewis, 2002). It is still a minority morals and values are central to any comprehensive interpretation
interest. Where there are socially responsible experts ‘in-house’ of the credit crunch and policies to alleviate it. These morals and val-
they are usually involved in supplying information to those who ues have been considered on two levels: the level of society, and the
finally make the relevant decisions (who are less likely to be sym- specific culture of financial institutions. It has been argued, in the
pathetic to these ‘intangible’ concerns themselves) (Juravle and two versions of the ‘good society’, that a balance needs to be struck
Lewis, 2008; Lewis and Juravle, in press). Most fund managers have between the two but that in recent times too much emphasis has
short-term horizons and are remunerated accordingly. This works been placed on naked self-interest and wealth maximisation at the
against SRI which is best suited to longer-term returns. Actors are expense of social responsibility. This view is repeated in the context
A. Lewis / The Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010) 127–131 131

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