Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ackman All PDF
Ackman All PDF
Pershing Square
Capital Management
DISCLAIMER
The analyses provided include certain estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among
other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Company. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other
uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No
representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such
statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results
may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Pershing manages funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public securities.
It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing to change its position
regarding the Company and possibly reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the
Company. Pershing recognizes that the Company has a stock market capitalization of
approximately $42bn, and that, accordingly it could be more difficult to exert influence over its
Board than has been the case with smaller companies.
1
Table of Contents
I. Overview of McDonald's 3
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's 11
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's: McOpCo IPO 23
IV. Company Response to Pershing 39
V. Developing a Response to the Company 43
Appendix 58
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions 59
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis 66
C. McOpCo Financial Analysis 74
2
I. Overview of McDonald's
Pershing’s Involvement with McDonald’s
I. Overview of McDonald’s
4
Review of McDonald’s
I. Overview of McDonald’s
________________________________________________
(1) Based on Pershing’s assumptions. See page 64 in the appendix.
5
Historical Financial Performance
I. Overview of McDonald’s
Following declines in same-store sales and profitability in 2001 and 2002, Management has improved
operations through product innovation, capital discipline and strong execution. As a result, the Company’s
profitability has increased.
($ in millions)
EBITDA Margin
$10,000 27.0%
$5,000 25.5%
As a result of the Company’s improved capital allocation, pre-tax unlevered free cash flow has
increased from a five-year low of $2.0 billion in 2002 to $3.5 billion in 2004.
$4,000 26%
$3,483
$3,000 $3,205 22%
EBITDA – CapEx
Margin (%)
$2,000 $2,199 $2,134 18%
$1,994 18.7% 18.3%
_______________________________________________
(1) Denotes Adjusted EBITDA – CapEx. Adjusted EBITDA is adjusted for certain non-recurring and non-cash expenses.
7
Stock Price Performance
I. Overview of McDonald’s
Although McDonald's stock has rebounded from its 2003 lows, it has been range bound in the low
$30s for the past five years and is significantly off of its high of $48 per share reached in 1999.
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
11/12/99 07/12/00 03/12/01 11/10/01 07/11/02 03/11/03 11/09/03 07/09/04 03/09/05 11/07/05
8
5-Year Indexed Stock Performance
I. Overview of McDonald’s
Over the past five years, McDonald’s has only slightly outperformed the S&P 500 while its QSR
peer group has vastly outperformed the index.
350
300
QSR
250
200
150
100 MCD
S&P
50
0
11/10/00 06/01/01 12/21/01 07/12/02 01/31/03 08/22/03 03/12/04 10/01/04 04/22/05 11/11/05
(1)
McDonald's QSR Comp S&P 500
________________________________________________
(1) Includes YUM and WEN.
9
McDonald’s versus its Peers
I. Overview of McDonald’s
EV / ’06E EBITDA
Despite McDonald’s 10.0x
8.9x
assets, number one 9.0x 8.7x
8.5x
QSR market
8.0x
position and leading
7.5x
brand, McDonald’s 30-Day Average Trailing
(1)
W EN YUM
trades at a discount
to its peers.
P / ‘06E EPS
2 5 .0 x
We believe this 2 0 .0 x
2 0 .4 x
1 6 .7 x
discount is due to a 1 5 .0 x
1 5 .6 x
fundamental 1 0 .0 x
misconception 5 .0 x
about McDonald’s 0 .0 x
(1 )
Long-Term
EPS Growth 9% 12% 12%
________________________________________________
(1)
McDonald’s stock price is based on a 30-day average trailing price as of 11/11/05.
10
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
McDonald’s: How the System Works…
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
(1) Illustrative return based on Pershing’s assumptions for the cost of land and building and approximate average unit sales in 2004.
12
A Landlord, Franchisor and Restaurant Operator
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes that McDonald’s owns the land and buildings of 37% of its system wide units and owns the buildings of 22% of its system wide units.
(2) Valuation based on Pershing estimates. See page 64 for more detail on real estate valuation.
13
Characteristics of Cash Flow Streams
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
(1) Typical margins are illustrative restaurant EBITDA margins and assume the payment of a market rent and franchisee fee, similar to a franchisee.
(2) Typical betas are Pershing approximations based on selected companies’ Barra predictive betas. Average cost of capital estimates are illustrative estimates based on average asset betas.
14
Adjusting for Market Rent and Franchise Fees
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
McOpCo McOpCo
46% 22%
54% 55%
78%
Note: The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to the Real Estate and Franchise business and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. McDonald’s management has
indicated this is a conservative assumption regarding the Real Estate and Franchise business. Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses.
. 15
Adjusting for Market Rent and Franchise Fees
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's (Cont’d)
Once adjusted for market rent and franchise fees, McOpCo would be contributing only 14% of total
EBITDA-Maintenance Capex, with the Real Estate and Franchise business contributing 86% of total
EBITDA-Maintenance Capex ,based on FY 2005E projections.
86%
Set forth below is a table which reconciles McOpCo’s, the Real Estate and Franchise businesses’ and stand-alone
McDonald’s FY 2004A income statements, assuming McOpCo pays a market rent and franchise fee. The analysis
demonstrates that the Real Estate and Franchise business contributed approximately 78% of total EBITDA.
(U.S. $ in millions)
Real Estate 2004
2004 McOpCo and Franchise Inter-Company Consolidated
Income Statement P&L P&L Eliminations Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $14,224 $14,224 $14,224
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,336 3,336 3,336
Rent From Company Operated Rest. - 1,280 (1,280) -
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,505 1,505 1,505
Franchise Fees From Company Operated Rest. - 569 (569) -
Total Revenue $19,065 $14,224 $6,690 ($1,849) $19,065
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 4,853 4,853 - - 4,853
Compensation & Benefits 3,726 3,726 - - 3,726
Non-Rent Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,164 2,164 - - 2,164
Company Operated D&A 774 427 347 774
Company-Operated Rent Expense 583 583 583 (583) 583
Additional Rent Payable to PropCo - 697 - (697) -
Franchise Fee Payable to FranCo - 569 - (569) -
Total Company Operated Expenses $12,100 $13,019 $930 ($1,849) $12,100
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 576 - 576 - 576
Franchise PPE D&A 427 427 427
Corporate G&A 1,980 495 1,485 1,980
EBIT 3,982 710 3,272 - 3,982
Depreciation & Amortization 1,201 427 774 - 1,201
EBITDA $5,183 $1,137 $4,046 $0 $5,183
% of Total EBITDA 100% 22% 78% 100%
________________________________________________
The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to the Real Estate and Franchise business and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. McDonald’s management has
indicated this is a conservative assumption regarding the real estate and franchise business.
Note: Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses. 17
.
Historical EBITDA by Business Type:
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
As Currently Reported
Assuming 75% of G&A is allocated to the Real Estate and Franchise business, an allocation that
McDonald’s management indicates is conservative, we indicate below the EBITDA for McOpCo and the
Real Estate and Franchise businesses, as depicted in the reported financials. We note that McOpCo has
historically appeared to contribute approximately ~45% of consolidated EBITDA.
$6.0
$5,183
$5.0 $4,512
$4,144 $4,041 $3,997
$4.0 $2,403 McOpCo
$2,072
$3.0 $1,995 $1,893 $1,841 ~45%
$2.0 Real
$2,780 Estate and
$1.0 $2,149 $2,148 $2,156 $2,440
Franchise
$0.0 ~55%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
________________________________________________
Assumes McOpCo G&A to be 25% of consolidated G&A and Real Estate and Franchise G&A to be 75% of consolidated G&A. Management has indicated this is a conservative
assumption regarding the Real Estate and Franchise business.
18
Historical EBITDA by Business Type:
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
Adjusted for a Market Rent and Franchise Fee
Despite an economic recession in 2001-2003, significant dips in McDonald’s system wide same-
store sales growth and declines in McDonald’s stock prices, the Real Estate and Franchise business
has grown every year over the last five years.
Notes:
Assumes McOpCo G&A to be 25% of consolidated G&A and Real Estate and Franchise G&A to be 75% of consolidated G&A.
Assumes McOpCo pays franchise fees of 4% of sales and rent of 9% of sales.
19
Real Estate and Franchise Business:
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
Stable and Growing
$6.0
$5.0
$1.1
$4.0 $0.9
$1.0 $1.0 $0.9 $0.8
$1.0
$3.0 $0.8 $0.8 McOpCo
$0.7
$0.7 Real Estate and
$2.0 $0.6 $0.6 $4.0
$0.5 $0.5 $3.6 Franchise
$2.9 $3.2 $3.1 $3.1 $3.2
$2.5 $2.6 $2.7
$1.0 $1.8 $1.9 $2.1
$1.5 $1.6
$0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
McOpCo
2.3% 18.1% (2.2%) 17.0% 14.1% 3.6% 6.3% 18.0% 5.1% (1.1%) (10.6%) (7.9%) 14.0% 20.4%
EBITDA Growth
Change in Year-End
(15.6%) 30.5% 28.3% 16.9% 2.6% 54.3% 0.6% 5.2% 60.9% 5.0% (15.7%) (22.1%) (39.3%) 54.4% 29.1%
Stock Price:
________________________________________________
Notes:
Assumes McOpCo G&A to be 25% of consolidated G&A and Real Estate and Franchise G&A to be 75% of consolidated G&A.
Assumes McOpCo pays franchise fees of 4% of sales and rent of 9% of sales.
20
Historical Perspectives on McOpCo
II. Pershing’s View of McDonald's
Turner realized in the mid 70s that owning too many McOpCo
units was not in the best interest of the Company
________________________________________________
24
Pershing’s Proposal: McOpCo IPO (cont’d)
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
Pro Forma
IPO 65%
25
McOpCo IPO:
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's: A Transformational Transaction
McOpCo IPO
________________________________________________
(1) Based on recent stock price of $33 per share.
26
A Transformational Transaction (Cont'd)
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
Typical
Standalone Pro Forma Mature
$ in millions FY 2006E FY 2006E QSR
(1)
FCF 3,059 2,440
FCF Margin 14.7% 33.0% 5% - 10%
________________________________________________
We note that CapEx projections are net of proceeds obtained from store closures.
(1) Typical QSR margin based on Wall Street estimates for YUM! Brands and Wendy’s.
27
A Transformational Transaction (Cont'd)
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
28
A Transformational Transaction (Cont'd)
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
29
Publicly Traded Comparable Companies
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
PF McDonald’s operating metrics are much closer to a typical Real Estate C-Corporation or a high
branded intellectual property business such as PepsiCo or Coca-Cola than they are a typical mature QSR.
Trading Multiples
(2)
Adjusted Enterprise Value /
CY 2006E EBITDA ~8.5x - 9.5x ~13x - 16x 15.1x 12.3x 12.6x
CY 2006E EBITDA – CapEx ~12x - 15x ~17x - 20x 16.0x 15.5x 14.2x
Price /
CY 2006E EPS ~15x - 19x NA 24.3x 20.1x 18.8x
(3)
CY 2006E FCF ~16x - 20x ~20x - 25x 24.0x 20.8x 18.9x
Leverage Multiples
Net Debt / EBITDA ~0.5x - 1.8x ~5x - 10x 1.7x 0.0x NM
Total Debt / Enterprise Value ~7.5% - 20% ~35% - 60% 11% 4% 4%
________________________________________________
We believe REITs trade in the range of 13x-17x EV/’06E EBITDA, depending on the type of
real estate and the businesses the properties support.
________________________________________________
Based on Wall Street research estimates at the time of Pershing’s initial Proposal to the Company.
31
Significant Value Creation for Shareholders
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes $1.35 bn of net debt allocated to McOpCo and $5.0 bn of net debt allocated to PF McDonald’s. In addition, assumes $9.7 bn of incremental leverage placed on
PF McDonald’s.
(2) Represents 35% of the market equity value of McOpCo.
(3) Assumes incremental leverage and the after-tax proceeds from McOpCo IPO (net of fees and expenses) are used to buy back approximately 316 mm shares at an average price of $40.
(4) Assumes a recent stock price of $33.
(5) P / FY ’06E FCF multiple adjusted for Pro Forma McDonald’s 35% stake in McOpCo.
32
McOpCo Valuation Summary
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's: and Potential IPO Proceeds
McOpCo IPO
McOpCo would likely be valued at $6.0 billion to $7.1 billion of equity market value or 6.5x–7.5x EV/’06E EBITDA.
________________________________________________
(1)
See appendix for McOpCo IPO after-tax proceeds schedule.
33
Pro Forma McDonald’s: Valuation Summary
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
The valuation of PF McDonald’s suggests a valuation range of $45–$50 per share. Based on the midpoint of the
valuation analysis, PF McDonald’s could be worth $47.50 per share, a 44% premium over where it trades today.
Set forth below are the sources and uses of proceeds associated with a $14.7 bn issuance of secured
collateralized financing (net of cash on hand), or an incremental $9.7 of net debt, based on expected net
debt as of FY 2005E. We have assumed a 5% fixed rate for this collateralized financing. After this
transaction, Pro Forma McDonald’s would be leveraged approximately 3.5x Total Debt/EBITDA or at a
25% Debt to Enterprise Value ratio. Proceeds from this issuance would be used to repay existing debt,
buyback shares and pay financing fees and expenses.
$ in millions
Sources PF McDonald's Capital Structure
New CMBS Financing (net of cash) $14,650 FY2005E
Percentage Loan to Value 44% Total Net Debt at Stand-alone McDonalds $6,315
Less: Net Debt Allocated to McOpCo (1,350)
Total $14,650 Net Debt at PF McDonalds $4,965
Incremental Debt Issued through CMBS 9,685
Total Net Debt $14,650
Uses
Repay Existing Net Debt at PF McDonald's Total Debt / EBITDA 3.5x
$4,965
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.4x
Buyback Shares 9,535
Assumed Corporate Credit Investment Grade
Fees and Expenses 150
Total Debt / Total Capitalization 24.5%
Total $14,650
35
Comparing PF McDonald’s Credit Stats with
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's: Comparable Real Estate Holding C-Corporations
McOpCo IPO
0.0x
Brookfield Properties British Land Land Securities Forest City Enterprises
Pro Forma
Debt / Enterprise Value
100%
0%
Brookfield Properties British Land Land Securities Forest City Enterprises
Pro Forma
EBITDA/Interest: 5.8x (2) 2.3x 1.5x 2.5x NA
Rating: BBB BBB NR BB+
________________________________________________
(1) Based on Wall Street research estimates. Pro Forma McDonald’s EV assumes a valuation multiple of 13x EV/FY’06 EBITDA.
(2) Assumes an average 5% fixed rate on PF McDonald’s debt.
36
Credit Ratings of Large Public REITs
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's:
McOpCo IPO
A review of large REITs indicates that these businesses support investment grade ratings with a
debt to enterprise value of 36% on average, as compared to Pro Forma McDonald’s which would
have a debt to enterprise value of 25%.
________________________________________________
Notes:
Stock prices as of 11/11/2005.
PF McDonald’s EV assumes a valuation multiple of 13x EV/FY’06 EBITDA.
Total Debt includes Preferred.
37
Pro Forma McDonald’s Has A Superior Credit
III. Pershing’s Proposal to McDonald's: Profile to a Typical REIT
McOpCo IPO
38
IV. Company Response to Pershing
Company Response to Pershing
IV. Company Response to Pershing
f (1) Valuation
40
Management Concerns: Friction Costs, Credit
IV. Company Response to Pershing Impact and Governance Issues
41
Valuation: Judgments Made by Advisors
IV. Company Response to Pershing
42
V. Developing a Response to the Company
Pershing’s Response Regarding Friction Costs
V. Developing a Response to the and Credit Impact
Company
44
Franchisee Alignment:
V. Developing a Response to the “Skin in the Game”
Company
Franchisor/Franchisee Conflict
f Top Line (percent of sales) vs. Bottom Line
46
What It Boils Down To:
V. Developing a Response to the
Company
Valuation of PF McDonald’s
47
PF McDonald’s FY2005E EBITDA
V. Developing a Response to the
Company pre-G&A Contribution
Brand Royalty
37%
63%
Real Estate
48
Comparable Companies
V. Developing a Response to the
Company
PF McDonald’s operating metrics are much closer to a typical Real Estate C-Corporation or a high
branded intellectual property business such as PepsiCo or Coca-Cola than they are a typical QSR.
Trading Multiples
Price /
CY 2006E EPS 21.1x NA 24.3x 20.1x 18.8x ~15x - 19x
(3)
CY 2006E FCF 20.9x ~20x - 25x 24.0x 20.8x 18.9x ~16x - 20x
Leverage Multiples
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.4x ~5x - 10x 1.7x 0.0x NM ~0.5x - 1.8x
Total Debt / Enterprise Value 24% ~35% - 60% 11% 4% 4% ~7.5% - 20%
________________________________________________
At McDonald’s current price of approximately $33 per share, we estimate Pro Forma McDonald’s dividend
/ FCF yield would be approximately 6.7%. (1)
McDonald's Stock Price $33.00 $37.00 $41.00 $45.00 $49.00 $53.00 $57.00
McOpCo Share Price (7x EV / EBITDA Multiple) $5.15 $5.15 $5.15 $5.15 $5.15 $5.15 $5.15
Implied Pro Forma McDonald's Share Price 27.85 31.85 35.85 39.85 43.85 47.85 51.85
Yield on Pro Forma McDonald's 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6%
Pershing believes the best way to think about Pro Forma McDonald’s is as a growing annuity.
Real Estate and Franchise EBITDA
($ in billions) Based on Pershing Assumptions Based on Reported Financials
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0 $4.0
$3.6
$3.2 $3.1 $3.1 $3.2
$2.7 $2.9
$2.5 $2.6
$1.0 $1.9 $2.1
$1.6 $1.8
$1.5
$0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Real Estate & Franchise
EBITDA Growth: 4.9% 11.7% 8.5% 10.4% 15.3% 4.0% 4.3% 10.1% 7.4% (0.5%) 0.1% 0.9% 12.6% 13.4%
________________________________________________
Notes:
Assumes McOpCo G&A to be 25% of consolidated G&A and Real Estate and Franchise G&A to be 75% of consolidated G&A.
Assumes McOpCo pays franchise fees of 4% of sales and rent of 9% of sales.
51
Which Would You Rather Own:
V. Developing a Response to the Pro Forma McDonald’s or a Large Retail REIT?
Company
McDonald's Stock Price $33.15 $35.15 $40.15 $45.15 $50.15 $55.15 $60.15 Typical
McOpCo Stock Price 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 Large Retail
PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 REIT (1)
Scenario 1: Pre-Tax Yield (2) 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0%
No Sharebuyback
No Incremental After-Tax Investor Yield (3) 5.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.6%
Leverage
Estimated LT Dividend Growth 3% - 4% 3%- 6%
Scenario 2 PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00
(4)
Proposed Pre-Tax Yield 8.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%
Sharebuyback
After-Tax Investor Yield (4) 7.2% 6.7% 5.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5%
________________________________________________
52
Which Would You Rather Own:
V. Developing a Response to the Pro Forma McDonald’s or 10-Year U.S. Treasury?
Company
McDonald's Stock Price $33.15 $35.15 $40.15 $45.15 $50.15 $55.15 $60.15
McOpCo Stock Price 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 10 Year
PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 Treasury
(1)
Scenario 1: Pre-Tax Yield 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6% 4.6%
No Sharebuyback
No Incremental After-Tax Investor Yield (2) 5.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%
Leverage
Estimated LT Dividend Growth 3% - 4% 3% - 4% 0%
Scenario 2 PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00
(3)
Proposed Pre-Tax Yield 8.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%
Sharebuyback
After-Tax Investor Yield (3) 7.2% 6.7% 5.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5%
53
Which Would You Rather Own:
V. Developing a Response to the Pro Forma McDonald’s or a Treasury Inflation
Company
Protected Security (TIPS)?
McDonald's Stock Price $33.15 $35.15 $40.15 $45.15 $50.15 $55.15 $60.15
McOpCo Stock Price 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.15 10 Year
PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 TIPS
Scenario 1: Pre-Tax Yield (1) 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6% 2.1%
No Sharebuyback
No Incremental After-Tax Investor Yield (2) 5.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%
Leverage
Estimated LT Dividend Growth 3% - 4% 2.5%
Scenario 2 PF McDonald's Stock Price $28.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00
(3)
Proposed Pre-Tax Yield 8.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%
Sharebuyback
After-Tax Investor Yield (3) 7.2% 6.7% 5.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5%
________________________________________________
54
Valuation of McDonald’s as a Growing Annuity
V. Developing a Response to the
Company
Based on a review of the cost of capital of Real Estate holding corporations and Intangible Property /
Franchise businesses like Coca Cola and Choice Hotels, we believe that Pro Forma McDonald’s levered
FCF could have a discount rate in the area 7.25% - 7.75%. As such, we believe PF McDonald’s would
have a FCF Yield of 4.25% - 5.25%. This implies a midpoint equity valuation range of $48 per share.
Low High
Estimated Discount Rate 7.75% 7.25%
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.50% 3.00% Midpoint of PF
Implied FCF Yield 5.25% 4.25% McDonald’s
Implied FCF Multiple 19.0x 23.5x Equity Value per
Share(2): $48
FY'06E Free Cash Flow per Share (1) $2.17 $2.17
(Note: FCF Assumes Proposal Scenario)
________________________________________________
(1)
Assumes no dividend paid in FCF calculation.
(2) Includes the value of PF McDonald’s 35% equity stake in McOpCo (approx. $2 per share). Assumes a 7x EV / FY ’06E EBITDA McOpCo valuation multiple.
55
Conclusions
V. Developing a Response to the
Company
Franchisees
57
V. Developing a Response to the
Company
Q&A
58
Appendix
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
McOpCo IPO: General Assumptions
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
61
McOpCo IPO: Structural And Tax Observations
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
Step 1: McOpCo dividends a $4.2bn Step 2: IPO of McOpCo and Step 3: Leveraged Self-Tender at
Note to McDonald’s (parent) Tax Costs Pro Forma McDonald’s
f McOpCo declares and pays a dividend to f McOpCo undertakes the IPO and uses the f PF McDonald’s is organized as a real estate
McDonald’s (parent) in the form of a Note in an proceeds to repay the dividend note. business (“PropCo”) and a franchise business
amount equal to the anticipated proceeds from (“FranCo”)
f The tax cost for the IPO would be the amount by
an initial public offering of McOpCo
which the IPO distribution exceeded McDonald's f PropCo issues secured financing with
f For illustrative purposes, we assume the Note is basis in the McOpCo stock multiplied by proceeds used for
for $4.2bn, or 65% of the equity market value McDonald’s corporate and state/local tax rate Repaying existing debt at PF
of McOpCo (assumed to be $6.5bn) McDonald’s
f Assuming a $4.2bn of IPO distribution, the tax
cost would be approximately $1bn Buying back shares
Tax cost equals $4.2 billion of distribution f PF McDonald’s performs a self tender using
less $1.65 billion of basis multiplied by the proceeds from:
tax rate of 38%
New CMBS financings
f As such, after tax proceeds of the McOpCo IPO
After tax proceeds of IPO
will be approximately $3.2 billion
62
McOpCo IPO Proceeds
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
63
Collateralized Financing
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
Assuming PF McDonald’s owns the land and building of 37% of its system wide units and owns the
buildings of 22% of its system wide units, then a preliminary valuation of McDonald’s real estate suggests
a value of $33 billion.
Avg. Annual Rev. Est. Market Est. Market Est. Est. Rent Cap Total Real
$ in million Per Unit Rent % Rent $ # of Units Income Rate Estate Value
Property Value
Owns Land and Building 1.75 9.0% 0.16 11,709 1,844.2 7.0% $26,346
Owns Building (Leases Land) 1.75 4.5% 0.08 6,962 548.3 8.0% $6,854
64
PF McDonald’s: Cost of Capital
A. Pershing’s Proposal: Assumptions
We estimated the asset betas of several Real Estate holding C-Corporations and several
high branded intellectual property businesses.
High Branded Intangible Property Business Betas
(Dollar values in millions)
Based on a blended asset beta calculation we determined a range of values for the WACC of
PF McDonald’s.
Blended Asset Beta Calculation
% Contribution from Blended Average
Asset % Contribution from Asset High Branded Unlevered
Beta Real Estate Beta Intellectual Property Asset Beta
Average Real Estate Average High Branded Intellectual Property
Unlevered Asset Beta 0.38 60.0% Unlevered Asset Beta 0.57 40.0% 0.45
68
2004 McDonald’s P&L As Reported McDonald’s
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
Set forth below is table which reconciles McOpCo’s, the Real Estate and Franchise businesses’ and stand-alone
McDonald’s FY 2004 income statements, as they are currently reported. The analysis demonstrates how
McOpCo is paying neither a market rent nor a franchise fee.
(U.S. $ in millions)
Real Estate 2004
2004 McOpCo and Franchise Consolidated
Income Statement P&L P&L Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $14,224 $14,224 $14,224
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,336 3,336 3,336
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,505 1,505 1,505
Total Revenue $19,065 $14,224 $4,841 $19,065
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 4,853 4,853 - 4,853
Compensation & Benefits 3,726 3,726 - 3,726
Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,747 2,747 - 2,747
Company Operated D&A 774 427 347 774
Total Company Operated Expenses $12,100 $11,753 $347 $12,100
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 576 - 576 576
Franchise PPE D&A 427 427 427
Corporate G&A 1,980 495 1,485 1,980
EBIT 3,982 1,976 2,006 3,982
Depreciation & Amortization 1,201 427 774 1,201
EBITDA $5,183 $2,403 $2,780 $5,183
% of Total EBITDA 100% 46% 54% 100%
________________________________________________
The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to the Real Estate and Franchise business and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. To the extent that there should
be more G&A allocated to McOpCo, then there would be a greater percentage of total EBITDA at the Real Estate and Franchise business than what is shown here.
Note: Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses. 69
.
2005E P&L Reconciliation
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
Set forth below is a table which reconciles McOpCo’s, Pro Forma McDonald’s and standalone
McDonald’s FY 2005E income statements. The analysis demonstrates the flow of rent income,
franchise income and rent expense upon separation of the businesses.
(U.S. $ in millions)
2005 Pro Forma 2005
Projected McOpCo McDonald's Inter-Company Consolidated
Income Statement P&L P&L Eliminations Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $15,042 $15,042 $15,042
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,578 3,578 3,578
Rent From Company Operated Rest. - 1,354 (1,354) -
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,590 1,590 1,590
Franchise Fees From Company Operated Rest. - 602 (602) -
Total Revenue $20,211 $15,042 $7,124 ($1,956) $20,211
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 5,132 5,132 - - 5,132
Compensation & Benefits 3,926 3,926 - - 3,926
Non-Rent Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,400 2,400 - - 2,400
Company Operated D&A 789 576 214 789
Company-Operated Rent Expense 616 616 616 (616) 616
Additional Rent Payable to PropCo - 737 - (737) -
Franchise Fee Payable to FranCo - 602 - (602) -
Total Company Operated Expenses $12,863 $13,989 $830 ($1,956) $12,863
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 600 - 600 - 600
Franchise PPE D&A 499 499 499
Corporate G&A 2,174 544 1,631 2,174
EBIT 4,075 510 3,564 - 4,075
Depreciation & Amortization 1,288 576 712 - 1,288
EBITDA $5,362 $1,086 $4,277 $0 $5,362
% of Total EBITDA 100% 20% 80% 100%
Maintenance Capex 1,250 501 749 1,250
EBITDA - Maintenance Capex 4,113 585 3,528 4,113
% of Total EBITDA - Maintenance Capex 100% 14% 86% 100%
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes total PF McDonald’s D&A of approximately $712 million, which is composed of $499 million (or 70%) of franchise PP&E and $214 million (or 30%) of D&A associated with
company-operated units. 70
2006E P&L Reconciliation
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
Set forth below is a table which reconciles McOpCo’s, Pro Forma McDonald’s and standalone
McDonald’s FY 2006E income statements. The analysis demonstrates the flow of rent income,
franchise income and rent expense upon separation of the businesses.
(U.S. $ in millions)
2006 Pro Forma 2006
Projected McOpCo McDonald's Inter-Company Consolidated
(U.S. $ in millions) Income Statement P&L P&L Eliminations Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $15,429 $15,429 $15,429
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,730 - 3,730 - 3,730
Rent From Company Operated Rest. - - 1,389 (1,389) -
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,658 - 1,658 - 1,658
Franchise Fees From Company Operated Rest. - - 617 (617) -
Total Revenue $20,816 $15,429 $7,393 ($2,006) $20,816
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 5,264 5,264 - - 5,264
Compensation & Benefits 4,012 4,012 - - 4,012
Non-Rent Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,458 2,458 - - 2,458
Company Operated D&A 808 587 221 - 808
Company-Operated Rent Expense 632 632 632 (632) 632
Additional Rent Payable to PropCo - 756 - (756) -
Franchise Fee Payable to FranCo - 617 - (617) -
Total Company Operated Expenses $13,174 $14,327 $853 ($2,006) $13,174
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 617 - 617 - 617
Franchise PPE D&A 516 - 516 - 516
Corporate G&A 2,240 560 1,680 - 2,240
EBIT 4,269 542 3,727 - 4,269
Depreciation & Amortization 1,324 587 737 - 1,324
EBITDA from Operations $5,594 $1,130 $4,464 $0 $5,594
% of Total EBITDA 100% 20% 80% 100%
Maintenance Capex 943 504 439 943
EBITDA - Maintenance Capex 4,651 626 4,025 4,651
% of Total EBITDA - Maintenance Capex 100% 13% 87% 100%
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes total PF McDonald’s D&A of approximately $737 million, which is composed of $516 million (or 70%) of franchise PP&E and $221 million (or 30%) of D&A associated with
company-operated units. 71
2006E Net Capital Expenditures Reconciliation
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
72
PF McDonald’s: Summary Income Statement
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
Below are the summary projections for Pro Forma McDonald’s based on the assumptions
detailed on page 68.
($ in millions, except per share data)
2006 - 2011
2002A 2003A 2004A 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR
Income Statement Data
Revenue $5,401.0 $6,008.5 $6,690.0 $7,124.1 $7,393.1 $7,676.7 $7,969.9 $8,276.2 $8,596.2 $8,930.9 3.9%
% Growth 11.2% 11.3% 6.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%
EBITDA $3,168.7 $3,568.2 $4,046.0 $4,276.7 $4,464.0 $4,653.4 $4,849.3 $5,054.9 $5,270.8 $5,497.5 4.3%
% Margin 58.7% 59.4% 60.5% 60.0% 60.4% 60.6% 60.8% 61.1% 61.3% 61.6%
EBITDA - CapEx 4,046.0 3,312.7 3,739.5 3,909.2 4,085.0 4,258.5 4,440.1 4,630.1 4.4%
% Margin 60.5% 46.5% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8%
D&A 774.0 712.3 736.9 768.5 794.5 821.5 849.6 878.8
EBIT $2,492.7 $2,827.4 $3,272.0 $3,564.4 $3,727.0 $3,884.9 $4,054.8 $4,233.4 $4,421.2 $4,618.6 4.4%
% Margin 46.2% 47.1% 48.9% 50.0% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7%
Equity Income from OpCo 35.0% 107.9 121.9 137.5 151.7 162.4 171.9
73
PF McDonald’s: Summary Cash Flow and Balance
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis Sheet
Below are the summary cash flow projections for Pro Forma McDonald’s based on the
assumptions detailed on page 68.
Total Debt / EBITDA 3.5x 3.3x 3.7x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.4x 3.3x 3.7x 3.7x 3.7x 3.7x 3.7x
74
C. McOpCo Financial Analysis
McOpCo: Model Key Drivers
C. McOpCo Financial Analysis
76
McOpCo Summary Income Statement
C. McOpCo Financial Analysis
Set forth below are the summary projections for McOpCo based on the assumptions detailed on page 76.
(U.S. $ in millions)
2006 - 2011
2004A 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR
Income Statement Data
Revenue $14,223.8 $15,042.4 $15,428.9 $15,838.3 $16,259.2 $16,692.0 $17,136.9 $17,594.4 2.7%
% Growth 11.2% 5.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
EBITDA $1,136.7 $1,085.7 $1,129.6 $1,173.3 $1,218.5 $1,265.4 $1,313.9 $1,364.2 3.8%
% Margin 8.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8%
EBITDA - CapEx 1,136.7 562.5 595.6 628.1 662.0 697.3 734.0 772.2 5.3%
% Margin 8.0% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%
D&A 427.0 575.5 587.4 599.6 609.3 622.0 635.0 645.2
EBIT $709.7 $510.2 $542.2 $573.6 $609.2 $643.3 $678.9 $718.9 5.8%
% Margin 5.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1%
77
McOpCo Summary Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
C. McOpCo Financial Analysis
Set forth below are the summary cash flow projections for McOpCo based on the
assumptions detailed on page 76.
2006 - 2011
2004A 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E CAGR
Cash Flow Data
EBITDA $1,129.6 $1,173.3 $1,218.5 $1,265.4 $1,313.9 $1,364.2
less: Cash Taxes (145.1) (163.9) (184.9) (203.9) (218.3) (231.1)
less: Cash Interest Expense (88.7) (61.5) (31.4) (6.1) 3.4 3.4
less: Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
less: Change in Working Capital 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5
less: Growth CapEx (30.0) (30.6) (31.2) (31.8) (32.5) (33.1)
less: Maintenance CapEx (504.0) (514.5) (525.3) (536.2) (547.4) (558.8)
Free Cash Flow (after dividends) $367.9 $409.3 $452.5 $494.3 $526.3 $552.0 8.5%
Free Cash Flow per share (before dividends) $0.29 $0.32 $0.36 $0.39 $0.44 $0.49 11.1%
Total Debt / EBITDA 1.4x 1.0x 0.6x 0.2x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.2x 0.9x 0.5x 0.1x -0.1x -0.1x -0.1x
78
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Pershing Square
Capital Management
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
DISCLAIMER
The analyses provided include certain estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among
other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Company. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other
uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No
representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such
statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results
may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Pershing manages funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public securities.
It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing to change its position
regarding the Company and possibly reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the
Company. Pershing recognizes that the Company has a stock market capitalization in excess of
$40bn, and that, accordingly, it could be more difficult to exert influence over its Board than has
been the case with smaller companies.
2
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Agenda
A Revised Proposal for Creating Value
at McDonald’s
9 Company
9 Franchisees
9 Shareholders
Q&A
3
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
f Management believed that our Initial Proposal (1) would result in potential
“frictional costs”; (2) could have an unfavorable credit impact; and (3)
could create system issues
f McDonald’s believed, based on its advisors’ valuation, that there was not
enough value creation to outweigh frictional costs and other concerns
Objective 1:
Improve McOpCo’s Operating
Performance
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
7
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
12%
(1)
8.8%
8%
4%
0%
9
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
McOpCo
increases focus
on emerging f McOpCo should increase its focus on profitable
markets growth emerging markets growth
10
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Objective 2:
Strengthen the McDonald’s
System
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Pershing spoke with franchisees from around the world. Here’s what they told us:
f McDonald’s makes the bulk of its profits from the franchisees’ top line
f However, top line same-store sales growth does not always translate into improving franchisees’
bottom line
Stock market often rewards McDonald’s for higher same store sales growth even though the
franchisees are sometimes pressured to sacrifice margin for discount pricing
f McOpCo does not compete on equal footing because it does not pay a market rent or franchisee fee
f Suboptimal pricing or capital allocation decisions do not impact McOpCo’s financials as
dramatically as those of franchisees
f Perception among franchisees is that McOpCo is not held to the same degree of accountability
12
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
f McOpCo regional managers often make capital investment decisions they will not have to live with,
given their status as salaried employees with limited tenure in any one position
f “Made for You” program is an example of a historical capital investment decision that may have
been amended or prevented by an arm's-length McOpCo
Hundreds of millions of dollars of capital invested in a kitchen system that is widely
considered inefficient
For many franchisees, it has led to decreased profitability, increased wait times and increased
staffing requirements
Testing at McOpCo did not reveal the true economic impact of the program
“Made for You” problems could have been prevented if the system had the appropriate
“checks and balances”
13
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
f McOpCo’s subsidized economics reduce the impact of lower margin product pricing decisions
f As such, approximately 27% (1) of the McDonald’s system currently does not price optimally
Reduces the profitability of the entire system
f Franchisees generally agreed that control of McOpCo should remain with McDonald’s
Keeps the franchisee vote democratic and dispersed
________________________________________________
(1): Based on approximately 8,119 McOpCo restaurants out of 30,516 systemwide McDonald’s restaurants, as of 2004.
14
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Objective 3:
Unlock Shareholder Value
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
19
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
McOpCo McOpCo
46% 22%
55%
54%
78%
Note: The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to Brand McDonald’s business and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. McDonald’s management has indicated this is a
conservative assumption regarding Brand McDonald’s. Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses.
. 20
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
McDonald’s is fundamentally
Not a restaurant company
McDonald’s FY 2005E
EBITDA – Maintenance CapEx, Adjusted for a
Market Rent and Franchise Fee(1)
McOpCo
14%
86%
Brand McDonald's
Why is it valued as such?
_________________________________________
(1) FY’05E EBITDA- Maintenance CapEx contribution is based on Pershing’s estimates. CapEx is net of proceeds from restaurant closings. We note that the Company does not provide
EBITDA and Maintenance CapEx allocation by segment.
21
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
f McDonald’s currently trades at roughly 8.9x EV/2006E EBITDA(1), despite over 85% of its
pre-tax unlevered cash flows being generated by Brand McDonald’s (2)
f We believe Brand McDonald’s, valued independently, is worth 12.5x – 13.5x EV/’06E EBITDA
High branded intellectual property/franchise businesses such as Choice Hotels, PepsiCo and
Coca-Cola trade in the range of 12x – 19x EV/’06E EBITDA
Real Estate C-Corporations and REITs typically trade in the range of 13x-16x EV/’06E EBITDA
f Only when Pershing’s ideas regarding transparency became public did Wall Street analysts
begin deriving sum-of-the parts valuations in the mid $40s per share
Recent UBS sum of the parts valuation: $46 per share (3)
Recent Goldman Sachs sum of the parts valuation: $44 per share (4)
_________________________________________
(1) Based on McDonald’s recent stock price of $34 per share.
(2) Pre-tax unlevered cash flows calculated as FY’05E EBITDA- Maintenance CapEx. We note that FY’05E EBITDA- Maintenance CapEx contribution is based on Pershing’s
estimates. CapEx is net of proceeds from restaurant closings. The Company does not provide EBITDA and Maintenance CapEx allocation by segment.
(3) UBS research report dated 11/10/2005.
(4) Goldman Sachs research report dated 11/18/2005. McDonald’s sum-of-the-parts valuation of $44 is before estimated frictional costs.
22
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Review of our
Initial Proposal
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Management distraction
Shareholders Execution risk
26
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
________________________________________________
f Revised Proposal requires no incremental
(1) Assumes $843mm of dividends paid in FY2005E. FY2005E dividend payout debt to be issued over total debt position
ratio based on 9/30/2005 Last Twelve Months after-tax free cash flows,
calculated as operating cash flows less cash flows from investing activities.
29
as of 9/30/05
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
30
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Managerial focus and 9 McOpCo’s management can be compensated based on the market
incentives performance of its business
9 McOpCo managerial focus will improve as a result of having greater
accountability, increased responsibility, a better performance
measuring yardstick via the public markets and more direct incentives
31
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Pershing believes that a publicly traded arm's-length McOpCo, which remains controlled by
McDonald’s, would strengthen the McDonald’s System.
f Arm's-length McOpCo’s decision-making criteria on product pricing and capital allocation will be
substantially similar to that of the franchisee community
f McOpCo, no longer subsidized by Corporate McDonald’s, will review its restaurant portfolio more closely
for refranchising rationalization / opportunities
Refranchising program would create an incentive system whereby the best operators would be
rewarded with an opportunity to own new units
Poor performing operators will be motivated to improve performance to earn the right to own more
restaurants
Franchisees would recognize that the new McOpCo competes on equal footing
f McOpCo, required to pay arm's-length rent and franchise fees, would face the same economic
consequences as franchisees, thus creating a better aligned system
f Improves fairness and accountability throughout the system
32
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
A better understanding of the true economic impact of its new products on the typical
owner/operator’s bottom line
f Franchisee participation on the McOpCo Board will temper any perception that McOpCo
receives “preferential treatment” from McDonald’s
33
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Answer: No, quite the opposite. We believe a more likely scenario is the following:
Question: Under your Revised Proposal, is there any risk that McDonald’s real estate will
be sold or that franchisees will experience unexpected rent hikes?
Answer: No. We have never endorsed the sale of real estate or the creation of a REIT.
Question: How will this change a franchisee’s day-to-day interaction with McDonald’s
Corporation?
Answer: There will be no changes. A franchisee’s day-to-day interaction with McDonald’s will not
be affected by the creation of a publicly traded McOpCo.
However, the franchisee community may find a strong ally in a publicly traded McOpCo
3 McOpCo’s management will be able to push back on lower margin / low return new products
introduced by Corporate McDonald’s
3 McOpCo will improve the check and balance mechanisms in the system
3 Testing at McOpCo on new products will be a better benchmark for how a product will perform
throughout the system
3 Many McOpCo stores in the U.S., Canada and U.K. will be up for refranchising
3 Franchisee representation on McOpCo’s Board will improve McOpCo’s credibility and
communication with the system
35
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Question: Would a publicly traded McOpCo hinder the current “Farm Team” system or
inhibit McDonald’s ability to recruit top McOpCo managers to work at Corporate?
Answer: No. We believe the creation of a publicly traded McOpCo will actually improve the
talent pool at both Brand McDonald’s and McOpCo.
3 With 80% ownership, Brand McDonald’s will still be able to leverage its deep relationship with
McOpCo for recruiting purposes
36
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
A publicly traded McOpCo would increase financial transparency and would allow investors to
appropriately value McDonald’s on a sum-of-the-parts basis.
Valuation 9 McOpCo IPO would allow Wall Street analysts and the broad
investment community to value McDonald’s on a sum-of-the parts
basis
9 Investors would focus more on the value of Brand McDonald’s
37
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Brand McDonald’s operating metrics and business characteristics (100% royalty-based revenues, low cost
of capital and high earnings stability) are much closer to high branded intellectual property businesses
such as PepsiCo, Coca-Cola or Choice Hotels or a typical Real Estate C-Corporation than they are to a
typical QSR. We believe Brand McDonald’s could be worth 12.5x – 13.5x EV/2006E EBITDA.
Business Characteristics:
Maint. Capital Requirements Low Low Low Low Low Medium
Earnings Stability High High High High High Medium
Average Cost of Capital Low Low Low Low Low Medium
Fixed Asset Value High High Low Low Low Low
Trading Multiples
Implied multiple,
based on a $34
stock price
________________________________________________
Note: Assumes $1.25bn of proceeds from IPO and $1.75bn of existing cash on hand used to repurchase shares. Capital structure assumptions are detailed on page 56 of the Appendix.
Analysis is pro forma for a McOpCo spin-off and McDonald’s share buyback on 12/31/05.
(1) Based on 10/31 closing price of $31.60. 39
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Note: Assumes 75% of consolidated G&A is allocated to Brand McDonald’s, with the rest allocated to McOpCo. Assumes McDonald’s FY ’05E Net Debt of $8.1bn,
Minority Interest in McOpCo of $1.3bn, and FY’05E Diluted Shares Outstanding of 1,186mm, all pro forma for Pershing’s Revised Proposal.
40
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Pershing believes that McDonald’s, pro forma for the McOpCo 20% IPO, would have a 2006E Free
Cash Flow yield of 4.3 % - 4.7% at stock price in the range of $46 - $50 per share. We note our
Free Cash Flow calculation is based upon our estimates of 2006E After-Tax Levered Operating
Cash Flow less Growth and Maintenance Capital Expenditures. (1)
________________________________________________
(1) FCF Yield is based on Attributable Free Cash Flow before dividend payments. See Appendix page 54 for a calculation of FY 2006E Attributable Free Cash Flow.
41
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
9 Simple transaction
McOpCo
9 Many successful value creating precedent transactions
9 Minimal management distraction
9 Frictional costs of roughly 5 cents per share
9 Preserves current structure’s control of McOpCo
McDonald’s would maintain the flexibility to
repurchase minority McOpCo stake
9 …if desired improvements were not obtained
9 Minority buyouts are simple and common transactions
with minimal transaction costs
42
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
f Pershing believes that creating a publicly traded arm's-length McOpCo will substantially improve
both top-line and bottom-line performance of McDonald’s
We believe that McOpCo has EBITDA margins of roughly 7.3% (post corporate allocation) (1)
f Standalone McDonald’s LTM 9/30/05 G&A per systemwide unit of $68k versus YUM! Brands
LTM 9/30/05 G&A per systemwide unit of approximately $35k
We have not included an IPO / potential spin-off of Chipotle as part of our analysis
f IPO and potential spin-off of Chipotle will create additional value for investors
________________________________________________
(1) McOpCo EBITDA margins are after adjusting for a market rent and franchise fee and allocating 25% of McDonald’s consolidated G&A to McOpCo.
43
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
We believe our Proposal can potentially increase McDonald’s share price to $50 per share. In
addition, we believe McDonald’s strong management team, running a world-leading brand, can
create significant additional value based only on incremental operating improvements.(1)
Pershing
$40 Proposal
Recent:
$34
$30
Pershing McOpCo Improve G&A to Improve G&A to
Proposal: improves $50k per YUM! levels of
McOpCo 20% EBITDA margins systemwide unit $35k per
IPO and Market to 10% (~$500mm of G&A systemwide unit
Revaluation of (approx. 275bps savings)(2) (~$1bn of G&A
McDonald’s improvement) savings)(2)
_______________________________________________
(1) See Appendix page 55 for more detail regarding our assumptions on operating improvements.
(2) Total savings denotes consolidated G&A, of which 75% is allocated to Brand McDonald’s and 25% is allocated to McOpCo.
44
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
9 Simple transaction
9 Minimal execution risk, management distraction and frictional costs
9 Positions McOpCo to make optimal capital allocation and business
execution decisions
Q&A
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Appendix
Confidential
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Set forth below is a table which reconciles McOpCo’s, Brand McDonald’s and stand-alone McDonald’s
FY 2004 income statements, as they are currently reported. The analysis demonstrates how McOpCo is
paying neither a market rent nor a franchise fee.
Brand 2004
2004 McOpCo McDonald's Consolidated
Income Statement P&L P&L Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $14,224 $14,224 $14,224
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,336 3,336 3,336
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,505 1,505 1,505
Total Revenue $19,065 $14,224 $4,841 $19,065
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 4,853 4,853 - 4,853
Compensation & Benefits 3,726 3,726 - 3,726
Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,747 2,747 - 2,747
Company Operated D&A 774 427 347 774
Total Company Operated Expenses $12,100 $11,753 $347 $12,100
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 576 - 576 576
Franchise PPE D&A 427 427 427
Corporate G&A 1,980 495 1,485 1,980
EBIT 3,982 1,976 2,006 3,982
Depreciation & Amortization 1,201 427 774 1,201
EBITDA $5,183 $2,403 $2,780 $5,183
% of Total EBITDA 100% 46% 54% 100%
________________________________________________
The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to the Brand McDonald’s and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. To the extent that there should be more G&A
allocated to McOpCo, then there would be a greater percentage of total EBITDA at Brand McDonald’s than what is shown here.
Note: Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses. 48
.
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Set forth below is a table which reconciles McOpCo’s, Brand McDonald’s and stand-alone McDonald’s FY 2004A
income statements, assuming McOpCo pays a market rent and franchise fee. The analysis demonstrates that the
Brand McDonald’s contributed approximately 78% of total EBITDA.
Brand 2004
2004 McOpCo McDonald's Inter-Company Consolidated
Income Statement P&L P&L Eliminations Sum of Parts
Sales by Company Operated Restaurants $14,224 $14,224 $14,224
Rent from Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 3,336 3,336 3,336
Rent From Company Operated Rest. - 1,280 (1,280) -
Franchise Fees From Franchise and Affiliate Rest. 1,505 1,505 1,505
Franchise Fees From Company Operated Rest. - 569 (569) -
Total Revenue $19,065 $14,224 $6,690 ($1,849) $19,065
Company Operated Expenses:
Food and Paper 4,853 4,853 - - 4,853
Compensation & Benefits 3,726 3,726 - - 3,726
Non-Rent Occupancy and Other Expenses (excl. D&A) 2,164 2,164 - - 2,164
Company Operated D&A 774 427 347 774
Company-Operated Rent Expense 583 583 583 (583) 583
Additional Rent Payable to PropCo - 697 - (697) -
Franchise Fee Payable to FranCo - 569 - (569) -
Total Company Operated Expenses $12,100 $13,019 $930 ($1,849) $12,100
Franchised Restaurant Occupancy Costs 576 - 576 - 576
Franchise PPE D&A 427 427 427
Corporate G&A 1,980 495 1,485 1,980
EBIT 3,982 710 3,272 - 3,982
Depreciation & Amortization 1,201 427 774 - 1,201
EBITDA $5,183 $1,137 $4,046 $0 $5,183
% of Total EBITDA 100% 22% 78% 100%
________________________________________________
The analysis assumes that 75% of the total G&A is allocated to Brand McDonald’s and 25% is allocated to McOpCo. McDonald’s management has indicated that this is
a conservative assumption regarding the real estate and franchise business.
Note: Analysis excludes $441 mm of non-recurring other net operating expenses.
. 49
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
IPO assumptions
For modeling f 20% IPO of McOpCo generates $1.25bn of cash proceeds after expenses (on 12/31/2005)
purposes, we have Assumes a 7x EV/’06E EBITDA multiple for McOpCo
assumed a 20% IPO f No taxes paid given McOpCo’s basis which is assumed to be approx. $1.65bn
of McOpCo and the Tax basis is equal to $3 billion of initial assumed basis (based on an assessment of
proposed share net equipment and other property at McDonald’s) less $1.35 billion of net debt
repurchases occurred Share repurchases
on 12/31/2005. In f Approximately 7% of the share base repurchased using
addition to our IPO ~ $1.75bn of expected cash on hand at the end of the year (after paying dividends)
assumptions, set forth ~ $1.25bn of IPO proceeds, net of fees
herein are
Capital structure post share repurchases
assumptions
f Per management guidance, assumes McDonald’s issues a $3bn term loan to repatriate
regarding share
foreign earnings
repurchases, capital f No incremental debt issued at McDonald’s over total debt at 9/30/2005 ($8.1bn),
structure and dividend excluding a $3bn term loan required to repatriate earnings
policy. f Assumes FY’05E Net Debt at consolidated McDonald’s of $8.1bn
FY’05E Total Debt of $11.1bn, which includes $3bn of debt required for the
repatriation of foreign earnings
FY’05E cash balance of $3bn, based on proceeds received from repatriation
Increase dividend payout
f Increase dividend payout ratio to 90%
50
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Equity Equity
Markets Markets
IPO of
McOpCo Pays Repurchases
Shares $1.3 bn cash received $3.0 billion shares
McOpCo
$1.3bn
Note McOpCo repays $1.3 bn
Note to McDonald’s McDonald’s performs
a self-tender post the
McOpCo McDonald’s IPO
retains
80% stake
f McOpCo declares and pays a dividend to f McOpCo undertakes the IPO and uses the f No incremental leverage issued
McDonald’s (parent) in the form of a Note in an proceeds to repay the dividend note.
f PF McDonald’s repurchases approximately
amount equal to the anticipated proceeds from
f Any tax cost for the IPO would be the amount by 7% of the fully diluted share base using
an initial public offering of McOpCo
which the IPO distribution exceeded McDonald's
Excess cash on hand
f For illustrative purposes, we assume the Note is basis in the McOpCo stock multiplied by
for $1.3bn, or 20% of the equity market value McDonald’s corporate and state/local tax rate After tax proceeds of IPO
of McOpCo (assumed to be $6.6bn)
f Assuming a $1.3bn of IPO distribution, there
would be no tax cost associated with the IPO
Assume a $1.65 billion of tax basis
51
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Taxable Gain $0 $0 $0
52
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
$ in millions
Set forth herein are the Pre-IPO Cash Available to Fund Share Buybacks:
schedules for (1) FY Beginning Cash Balances 1/1/2005 $1,380
2005E funds available Plus: FY'05E Free Cash Flow Before Dividends and Debt Pay Down 2,351
for proposed share Less: FY'05E Debt Reduction (1,155)
buybacks; (2) ’05E Total Less: FY'05E Dividends (843)
Debt Balances; and (3) Equals: FY 2005E Cash on Books Available for Share Buybacks $1,733
’05E Cash Balances. FY 2005E Total Debt Balance:
We have assumed that Beginning Total Debt Balances 1/1/2005 $9,220
no incremental debt Less: FY'05E Debt Reduction (1,155)
would be issued at Estimated New Term Loan to Fund Repatriation 3,000
McOpCo as of Total Debt FY 2005E $11,065
9/30/2005 on top of the
estimated $3 billion Post IPO FY 2005E Cash Balance:
required to repatriate Beginning Cash Balances 1/1/2005 $1,380
earnings from foreign Plus: FY'05E Free Cash Flow Before Dividends and Debt Paydown 2,351
territories. Less: FY'05E Debt Reduction (1,155)
Less: FY'05E Dividends (843)
Plus: Estimated IPO Proceeds, net of fees 1,246
Less: Share buybacks ($2,979)
Plus: Proceeds from Repatriation 3,000
FY 2005E Ending Cash Balance $3,000
Set forth herein is a 2006E Cash Flow Data ($ in mm except per share data)
54
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
G & A Savings: Improving to $50k per unit McOpCo $1,679 7.0x $11,753
Unit Level Assumption: Brand McDonald's 4,839 13.5x 65,326
~50k per unit Total 6,518 $77,078
G&A Allocation Assumptions:
McOpCo 25.0% Less: FY'05E Net Debt 8,065
Brand McDonald's 75.0% Less: Minority Interest (Market Value) 2,081
Savings ($ in mm) Equals: Market Value of Equity $66,933
McOpCo $125 PF FY'05E Diluted Shares Outstanding (mm) 1,186
Brand McDonald's $375 Estimated Share Price $56
55
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Valuation Assumptions
Appendix
Recent Stock Price Recent Stock Price $34.00 Implied Share Price $46 $50
(1)
Premium to Unaffected Price 45% 57%
________________________________________________
Note: Assumes $1.25bn of proceeds from IPO and $1.75bn of existing cash on hand used to repurchase shares. Analysis is pro forma for a McOpCo spin-off and McDonald’s share
buyback, as proposed, occurring on 12/31/05.
(1) Based on 10/31 closing price of $31.60. 56
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
Set forth herein is a table which details our assumptions regarding average unit level 4-Wall EBITDA
margins for McOpCo and U.S. Franchisees.
($ in thousands) Avg. US McOpCo Unit Avg. Intl. McOpCo Unit Avg. US Franchisee Unit
________________________________________________
Note: McOpCo estimates based on FY 2004 financial data and assumes 2,002 U.S. McOpCo units and 6,117 International McOpCo units.
(1) As presented by Ralph Alvarez, President of McDonald’s North America, at McDonald’s Analyst Meeting at Oak Brook, IL on 9/21/05.
.
57
Final Revised Proposal.ppt
$50
$48
11/12/1999
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
1/19/99 10/1/99 6/12/00 2/22/01 11/4/01 7/17/02 3/29/03 12/9/03 8/20/04 5/2/05 1/13/06
58
Don’t Judge a Book By Its Cover
November 9, 2006
Pershing Square
Capital Management, L.P.
Disclaimer
The analysis and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing") regarding
Borders Group, Inc. (“Borders” or the “Company”) are based on publicly available information.
Pershing recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the Company
that could lead the Company to disagree with Pershing’s conclusions.
The analyses provided include certain estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among
other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Company. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other
uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No
representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such
statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results
may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Pershing advises funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public securities. It
is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause such funds to change their
positions regarding the Company and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of
their investment in the Company.
1
Borders Group
$27.47
$ 26.50
$ 24.50
$ 22.50
Recent
$ 20.50
price:
$21
$ 18.50
$ 16.50
$ 14.50
$ 12.50
11/5/01 5/5/02 11/5/02 5/5/03 11/5/03 5/5/04 11/5/04 5/5/05 11/5/05 5/5/06 11/5/06
4
Borders Historical Financial Performance
8.6% 8.8%
$250 8.4% 8.5% 8.0%
$150 6.0%
$100 5.0%
$50 4.0%
$0 3.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5
Traditional Sentiment on Borders
f Unattractive industry
“Amazon risk”
Consumer interest in books is declining
Difficult SSS comparisons with Harry Potter
6
Why Do We Like
Borders?
Why Do We Like Borders?
8
Why Do We Like Borders?
10
Why Do We Like Borders?
11
1. “Misunderstood
Industry”
“Amazon Risk?”
U.S. Consumer Book Industry 1993 U.S. Consumer Book Industry 2005
Superstores
5%
Independents
19% Superstores
Other (book clubs, 27%
Other (book clubs,
mass merchants) Independents
mass merchants) Malls 10%
48% 12%
66%
Internet 0%
Internet 12%
Source: Borders Group management presentation.
Malls 1%
13
Books Superstores Are Valuable Franchises
15
Industry Maint. Capex is less than Depreciation
16
Based on Pershing estimates. Assumes a $21 stock price for BGP.
Superstores 2. High-Quality
Businesses Obscured by
Mall Stores Money-Losing
International Businesses
Healthy Superstores Obscured by Bad Businesses
10.0%
Superstores
8.0%
6.0%
International
4.0%
Mall Stores
2.0%
0.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Note: EBITDA Adjusted for non-cash asset impairment
18
associated with store closures.
Within Superstores, there is Opportunity…
21
Superstores: Operating Data
f Unit economics:
$2.4mm of invested capital ($1.2mm of fixed assets, $1.2mm of
NWC)
Average unit sales of $5.7mm
Avg. 4-Wall EBITDA – Maint. Capex contribution of ~$700k
~29% “stabilized” unlevered ROI $700
= 29%
Based on Pershing estimates.
22
$2,400
Superstores Historical Financials
Financial Data
Sales 2,234 2,319 2,470 2,589 2,710
Growth 3.8% 6.5% 4.8% 4.7%
EBITDA adjusted for non-cash asset impairment associated with store closures.
23
Music Category Exposure Has Hurt
24
Remodeling: Improving the Superstore
Old New
$ in thousands Format Format Commentary
Revenue $5,700 $5,848
Sales Lift (Year 1) 2.6%
Margin Benefit from Mix (Year 1) 40 bps Seattle's Best Coffee / Specialty Paper
Margin Increase from Mix $23
$320
$322
9.9%
$300
$289 Margin
EBITDA $ in millions
33
Mall Stores: Deteriorating Business
$80 8.0%
7.4% 7.2% 7.5%
$10 1.0%
Note: EBITDA Adjusted
for non-cash asset $0 0.0%
impairment associated
with store closures.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
34
Mall Stores: Rationalization Plan
35
Mall Stores: “Worth More Dead than Alive”
36
International
U.K. Australia
International Stores
f U.K. stores
37 Borders Superstores
90 Paperchase
39
International: Worth More Dead than Alive?
40
3. Other Factors:
Share Repurchase
Activity and New
CEO
Strong Share Repurchase Focus
50
40
30
20
10
0
March March March January
2004 2005 2006 2007E
42
New CEO: Focused on Returns
Joined in July
Emphasis on returns
43
Valuation
Valuation Assumptions
Mall Stores Value of Net Working Capital The least it's worth 90
International Value of Net Working Capital The least it's worth 110
(1) Assumes $130mm of proceeds from Net Working Capital improvement and $30mm of FCF generated between 2007 – 2008 used to repurchase shares at $30 per share.
Fully diluted calculation based on the treasury stock method and assumes ~7mm of options outstanding by FYE 2008.
46
Trading Multiples at Target Valuation
At a $36 share price (adjusting for ~$4 of equity value ascribed to the
NWC at the Mall and International Stores), Borders would trade at
7x ’08E EBITDA, 7.5x ’08E EBITDAR and approximately
11x ’08E Maintenance Free Cash Flow
EV / EBITDA 7.0 x
47
Recent LBO Leverage Levels
48
Concluding
Thoughts
Concluding Thoughts
51
A TIP for Target Shareholders
October 29, 2008
Neither Pershing nor any of its representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of the Information or any other written or oral communication made in connection with this presentation or the Transaction.
The Information includes certain forward-looking statements, estimates and projections with respect to the anticipated future financial,
operating and stock market performance of Target in the absence of the Transaction and the two public companies that may result if the
Transaction is completed. Such statements, estimates and projections may prove to be substantially inaccurate, reflect significant
assumptions and judgments that may prove to be substantially inaccurate, and are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies
beyond Pershing’s control, including those described under the caption “Risk Factors” in Target’s filings with the Securities and
Exchange Commission as well as general economic, credit, capital and stock market conditions, competitive pressures, geopolitical
conditions, inflation, interest rate fluctuations, regulatory and tax matters and other factors.
Pershing and its representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of the Information or any
errors therein or omissions therefrom, including under applicable securities laws. The Information does not purport to include all
information that may be material with respect to the Transaction or Target. Thus, shareholders and others should conduct their own
independent investigation and analysis of Target, the Transaction and the Information.
The Information is not intended to provide the basis for fully evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to,
the Transaction, Target, the securities of Target or any other matter. Except where otherwise indicated, the Information speaks as of the
date hereof. Neither Pershing nor any of its representatives undertakes any obligation to correct, update or revise the Information or to
otherwise provide any additional materials.
The preparation and distribution of this presentation should not be taken as any form of commitment on the part of Pershing to take any
action in connection with the Transaction.
Pershing is in the business of buying and selling securities. It has, and may in the future, buy, sell or change the form of its position in
Target for any or no reason.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that (i) any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained in this
communication (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding penalties under the Internal
Revenue Code; (ii) any such discussion of tax matters is written in connection with the promotion or marketing of the matters addressed; and (iii) you should seek
advice from an independent advisor.
1
Pershing’s Investment in Target
2
Pershing’s Relationship with Target
3
Why Are We Going Public?
4
Significant Preparation and Analysis
Objectives
The Transaction
Transaction Rationale
Valuation
Appendix
6
Objectives
Target: Retail and Real Estate Operations
80
68%
70 63%
58%
60
50
40 34% 34%
30
20
10
0
Assuming that Target were to rent all of its owned store locations at
an estimated market rent of 4.25% of store sales (or approximately
$13/sq. ft.) and its owned distribution facilities at $4.25/sq. ft., Target
would pay an additional rent of $2.5bn in 2008
Assuming that on average, a new store costs $26mm to zone, develop and
build or approximately $197/sq. ft. (1) and that each Distribution Facility costs
$70mm or approximately $50/sq. ft. (1), the replacement cost of Target’s owned
real estate (excluding the value of its buildings on ground leased land and its
existing leases) is approximately $39bn
Assuming Target were to rent its owned real estate and using a 7.0x
’08E EBITDA multiple on the pro forma retail business, the 20-day
trading average stock price of $40 implies only $13bn of value for
Target’s owned real estate, a significant discount to book and
replacement value
$ in billions
Current TGT Enterprise Value @ $40/Share $48.3 (1)
Less : PF Target Corp (26.9) (2)
Less : Credit Card Receivables (8.0)
Equals : Implied Real Estate Value $13.4
(1)
Gross Book Value of Land and Buildings $25.2
Discount to Gross Book Value 47%
13
Several Alternatives Were Reviewed
15
The Transaction
The Transaction
Pre–Spin Post–Spin
TARGET TARGET
Shareholders Shareholders
Target Inflation
TARGET TARGET Corp
Ground Protected REIT
Leases
Existing Facilities
Owned
Retail Land Mgmt.
Buildings 1
Business Services
f New Target Corp owns its buildings f Leases back land to Target Corp through
on 75-year ground leases a Master Lease for a 75-year term
(1) Includes third-party ground leases f After two years, becomes Target Corp’s
Preferred Vendor for land procurement
17
Solving a Retailer’s Real Estate Dilemma
TIP REIT
Facilities Mgmt. Land under
Services Stores and DCs
Question: How can a Retailer unlock the value of its real estate
without losing control of its buildings?
20
Transaction Plan: How Would it Happen?
Asset Contribution Transaction Description
f Step 1: The existing company (“Target
Target Corp Corp”) forms a new subsidiary (“TIP REIT”)
and transfers to it the Facilities
Management Services business, the owned
Land TIP REIT
Facilities
Management land under the stores, and the owned land
Services
under the distribution facilities
1
Land Lease
f Step 2: TIP REIT leases the land back to
2 75-year
Target Corp Target Corp through a Master Lease for a
Master Lease
75-year term
TIP REIT
Facilities
Land Management
Services
21
Transaction Plan (cont’d)
Spin-off and REIT Election Transaction Description
Shareholders f Step 3: Target Corp spins off TIP REIT to its
shareholders pro rata and tax-free
Tax-Free Target
3 Spin-off
Corp f Step 4: TIP REIT elects REIT status effective
immediately
TIP REIT 4 Simultaneously, TIP REIT drops the Facilities
Management Services business into a new
Land
Facilities Mgmt
Services
corporation, a taxable REIT subsidiary (TRS)
(TRS)
E&P Purge f Step 5: TIP REIT pays a taxable dividend (at the
15% dividend tax rate to non-corporate taxpayers)
Shareholders to shareholders equal to its allocated portion of
$8bn Taxable
5 Dividend Target’s $16bn of retained Earnings and Profits
(E&P Purge)
(“E&P”), estimated to be $8bn based on the implied
TIP REIT
Target mid-point valuation of TIP REIT/Target Corp
Corp
20% of the dividend ($1.6bn) may be paid in
Facilities Mgmt
cash with the remaining paid in TIP REIT
Land Services
(TRS)
common stock
75-year Lease
This cash dividend can be deferred until the end
of the calendar year in which the REIT election
occurs
22
Illustrative Master Lease Term Sheet
Leased
Property f Land in fee under stores and distribution centers
Financial
Covenants f None
Preferred f For the first 2 years post-Transaction, TIP REIT will be Target Corp’s exclusive land developer
Vendor f Thereafter, TIP REIT will become Target Corp’s preferred vendor for future land procurement / development
Agreement needs
Maintenance
of Buildings f Target Corp will have the right to re-model or tear down and rebuild stores as it sees fit
Sublease f Target Corp may sublease one or more sites but no sublease would release Target Corp from its
obligations under the lease
Lease f The lease is intended to be treated as a lease for tax purposes; lessor will be treated as the owner
Structure f Note: The lease is assumed to be treated as an operating lease for accounting purposes
23
Ongoing Relationships
Post separation, Target Corp and TIP REIT will continue to be closely
aligned, but on an arm’s-length basis
f TIP REIT will provide Facilities Management Services to Target Corp under a long-term
agreement
Arm’s-length terms
TIP REIT expected to continue to perform Facilities Management Services for third parties
after the spin-off
f Target Corp agrees to use TIP REIT as its land procurement developer for the first two
years after the spin-off on agreed-upon terms
Creates a contractual 2-year development pipeline for TIP REIT and a funding source
for Target Corp
f Afterwards, Target Corp will grant TIP REIT preferred vendor status for Target Corp’s
land procurement needs on market terms for future Target stores
Under this Preferred Vendor Agreement, it is anticipated that TIP REIT will be Target
Corp’s land procurement developer in the future
f After the spin-off, TIP REIT and Target Corp may also share overlapping board members
The number of overlapping board members would comprise a minority of each board
There may be restrictions on the duration of the overlap
24
Transaction Assumptions
The following transaction assumptions were used for an illustrative 01/01/09 transaction:
f ’09E rent/square foot on land for stores — $7/sq. ft.; equals to 7% of $100/sq. ft.
Lease Terms f ’09E rent/square foot on land for distribution centers and warehouses — $1.25/sq. ft.
f Rental rate grows based on CPI (assumes CPI = 2.5%)
Credit Card f Target sells 53% remaining interest of credit card portfolio
Business $4.4bn of proceeds used to pay down debt (including all securitized debt)
(Both Transaction Elimination of $3.6bn JPMorgan financing
and Standalone) f Target retains $150mm of pre-tax earnings stream from its credit card business in partnership
transaction
Capital f Target Corp funds all maintenance capex as well as all building development
Expenditures f TIP REIT funds all new Target store land procurement, development and improvement costs ($100/sq. ft.)
Facilities f Assumes $125mm of ’09E internal Facilities Management Services expense at Target Corp
Management f Assumes TIP REIT receives $144mm in revenues from Target Corp and third parties, expenses
Services $125mm of costs and earns $19mm in EBIT, implying a 13% EBIT margin in 2009E
f After reducing $4.4bn of debt from the sale of the remaining 53% interest of CC business (and
Capital accordingly eliminating the JPMorgan credit card liability), we have assumed all existing debt stays
Structure at Target Corp
f Flexibility to re-allocate debt between Target Corp and TIP REIT
f Assumes $20mm of G&A allocated to TIP REIT and incremental $15mm of standalone costs
TIP REIT G&A in ’08E
25
Selected 2009E Income Statement Data
(2)
EPS $2.23 $1.79 $4.02 $3.40
18% EPS accretion
from tax efficiencies
and improved free
cash flow
(1) Includes incremental $15mm of standalone costs at TIP REIT
(2) Normalized to exclude $112mm (approximately $0.16/share) of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
26
2009E Detailed Income Statement Data
The table below sets forth the Income Statements for the two entities
2009E 2009E Intercompany 2009E
($mm) Target Corp TIP REIT Adjustments "Combined"
P&L Data:
Retail Revenue $68,249 – – $68,249
Rental Revenue – 1,444 (1,444) –
1
Facilities Management Revenue – 144 (144) –
Total Revenue $68,249 $1,587 ($1,587) $68,249
COGS (47,777) – – (47,777)
Gross Margin 20,472 1,587 (1,587) 20,472
Gross Margin (%) 30.0% 100.0% 30.0%
Less: Existing Rent Expense (173) – – (173)
2
Less: Incremental Ground Lease Expense payable to TIP REIT (1,444) – 1,444 –
Less: SG&A (excluding rent expense) (13,814) (20) – (13,834)
3
Less: Incremental Standalone Cost – (15) – (15)
1
Less: Facilities Management Expense (19) (125) 144 –
4
Plus: Credit Card EBITDA 150 – – 150
Equals: EBITDA $5,172 $1,427 – $6,599
% of Total 78.4% 21.6% 100.0%
Less: Depreciation and Amortization (1,884) (56) – (1,940)
Equals: EBIT $3,288 $1,372 – $4,659
% of Total 70.6% 29.4% 100.0%
(1) Reflects payment to TIP REIT of $144mm less assumed expense of $125mm
(2) Assumes rent of $7.00/sq. ft. on store land and $1.25/sq. ft. on DCs and WHs land for CY 2009E
(3) Incremental standalone cost of TIP REIT
(4) Assumes the sale of the remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables on 01/01/09, with Target retaining $150mm of credit card EBITDA
27
2009E Maintenance Free Cash Flows
The Transaction achieves significant cash flow savings given the tax-
efficient structure for owning land
$5
$3.92
$4 TIP REIT
Target
$1.86
$3 Standalone
$2
Target Corp
$1 $2.68
$0
Target Target "Combined"
(1) Includes cost of store remodeling; normalized to exclude $112mm (approximately $0.16/share) of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P
distribution
28
Detailed 2009E Maintenance Free Cash Flows
The Transaction achieves significant cash flow savings given the tax-
efficient structure for owning land
(1) Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn on 01/01/09 with Target retaining $150mm of credit card EBITDA
(2) Assumes interest rate on debt of 6.2% at Target Corp and 7.0% at TIP REIT; normalized to exclude $112mm of incremental interest expense
due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
(3) Assumes tax rate of 38% for Target Corp and TIP REIT Facilities Management Services business
29
Valuation Summary
Based on the assumptions provided and using the mid-point of the valuation
analysis, this Transaction would result in total combined value of $70 per share
for Target shareholders (74% premium to the 20-day average trading price) and
$83 per share twelve months later
$83
$80
$70
TIP REIT
$60 74% TIP REIT $42
$/Share
$40 $38
$40
31
Transaction Rationale
Transaction Rationale
Tax-free spin-off
(1) Excludes $112mm (approximately $0.16/share) of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
33
Retains Control Over its Buildings and Brand
34
Improves Overall Access to Capital
Today, only the most stable and unlevered businesses can freely
access the debt and equity capital markets. TIP REIT will be one of
the most stable companies in the world today
TIP REIT
f Simple, predictable business
f High margins and strong cash flows
TIP REIT will have
f Unlevered balance sheet
better and cheaper
f 75-year lease access to the capital
f No transaction income markets than any
f Inflation-protected income stream retailer. As such, Target
f Tremendous security
will have a stable
strategic and financial
f No maintenance capital requirements
partner to fund future
f No currency or commodity risk growth
f High-quality, in-demand tenant
f Diversified real estate geography
35
Decreases Target Corp’s Capital Needs
The Transaction enables Target Corp to generate more free cash flow
after growth capex than Target today. As such, Target Corp will not
need to access the capital markets because TIP REIT will provide
future growth capital and taxes will be reduced
(1) Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn on 01/01/09 with Target retaining $150mm of credit card EBITDA in '09E
37
Creates Currency for Tax Efficient Acquisitions
fOP units are convertible, on a one-for-one basis, into TIP REIT shares
38
Creates Currency for Tax Efficient Acquisitions
Environmental planning
Target Corp can better focus on retailing while TIP REIT can
focus on facilities management and land acquisitions
40
Tax-free Spin-off
f Both Parent and SpinCo must each be engaged 3 Facilities Management Services business is an active
in an active trade or business immediately after trade or business that has been conducted by Target
Active the spin-off Corp, in addition to its retail business, for the past five
Trade or years
The business must also have been
Business conducted throughout the 5-year period TIP REIT expected to continue to offer Facilities
ending on the date of the spin-off Management Services to customers other than
Target Corp
f The spin-off cannot be principally used as a 3 Non-tax business purpose for separation, widely-held
device for the distribution of earnings and profits ownership of Target Corp and TIP REIT, and absence
of plan by shareholders to sell stake in either company
Device evidence that transaction is not a device
3 Leases are structured to ensure TIP REIT is treated as
tax owner of land
f Parent must have control of SpinCo immediately 3 Target Corp will have control of 100% of TIP REIT
Distribution prior to the distribution prior to spin-off
of Control Control means 80% of total voting power and
80% of the number of shares of each class of
non-voting stock
41
Optimizes Land Ownership: Depreciation Considerations
f Raw land (and the majority of the capitalized costs associated with
land procurement / development) cannot be depreciated
f On the other hand, a REIT should own land since (1) it is not a tax-
paying entity and does not get any benefits from depreciation and
(2) it is in the business of owning real estate
42
Optimizes Land Ownership: REIT Conversion
f At least 75% of assets must be comprised of real estate, f Land satisfies the asset test
cash or cash items and Government securities f The Facilities Management Services business will
Asset Test f REIT can conduct non-real estate related activities through be placed in a TRS and its income will be taxed at
a taxable REIT subsidiary (TRS). TRS shares could be up the corporate level
to 25% of the gross asset value of all the REIT’s assets f The value of TIP REIT’s TRS shares will be less
than 25% of the total value of TIP REIT
f At least 75% of REIT’s gross income must consist of rents, f Rental income from leases will satisfy the 75%
gain from disposition of real property and income from other income test; rental income and dividends will satisfy
REITs the 95% income test
f Rents from related parties are disqualified under the income f New 9.9% TIP REIT ownership restriction will
Income Test test (parties are related if there is a 10% or greater ensure that rents from Target Corp are not related-
ownership by vote or value of the tenant by the REIT) party rents
f At least 95% of gross income must consist of (i) income that
satisfies the 75% income test and (ii) dividends and interest
from any source
f In the year of election, REIT must distribute C-Corp f TIP REIT will make a taxable distribution of stock
Distribution earnings and profits by end of taxable year and cash by December 31 of year of spin-off to
Requirements f At least 90% of REIT taxable income must be distributed purge retained Earnings and Profits
annually (undistributed income would remain subject to f TIP REIT will distribute ≥ 100% of its REIT taxable
corporate-level tax) income
43
Increases Total FCF via REIT Conversion
The Transaction allows for greater free cash flow generation for
Target’s shareholders than the Standalone company provides
f Most D&A remains at tax-paying entity (Target Corp)
f Ground lease expense at Target Corp is tax deductible
f REIT does not pay taxes
TARGET TIP TARGET TARGET
Corp REIT 2 “Combined” Standalone Differential
1
2009E Maintenance FCF/Share $2.68 $1.86 $4.54 $3.92 $0.62
1
2009E EPS $2.23 $1.79 $4.02 $3.40 $0.62
(1) Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card business is sold in both Standalone and Transaction scenarios
(2) Normalized to exclude $112mm (approximately $0.16/share) of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
44
Improves Store-level ROIC at Target Corp
Assuming the average store real estate costs $26mm, of which $13mm
is allocated to the land and $13mm to the building, store-level return
on investment increases from 23.0% to 39.8%
Owned Store Level Operating Data and Assumptions Standalone Pro Forma
($mm) 2007A 2007A
Retail Sales per Avg. Store $40 $40
Estimated Four-Wall Operating Costs 34 35
Ground Lease Expense per Avg. Store -- 1(1)
Estimated Four-Wall EBIT per Avg. Store $6 $5
Margin (%) 15.0% 13.0%
(1) Assumes $0.9mm of ground lease rent expense, based on $7/sq. ft. lease cost and 131k of store square footage, on average
45
Increases Target Corp’s EPS Growth Rate
Because of its higher ROIC, improved free cash flow profile, and more
efficient capital structure, Target Corp’s EPS growth will exceed that of
Target Standalone
(1) Assumes remaining 53% interest of credit card business sold for $4.4bn on 01/01/09 and all proceeds used to pay down debt
(2) Assumes Target Standalone maintains existing dividend policy
46
Increases Target Corp’s EPS Growth Rate (cont’d)
Pro forma for the Transaction, Target Corp’s long-term EPS growth
rate would be at the top of its peer group
21
17.6%(1),(2),(3)
18
16.0%
15.0% 14.7%(1),(2),(3)
14.5% Average(4) = 11.9%
15 14.0% 14.0%
13.5%
13.0% 12.9%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
12 11.0%
10.0% 10.0%
9.0% 9.0%
9 8.0% 8.0%
0
Whole Kohl's CVS Lowe's Staples Walgreens TJX Costco Safeway Home Best Buy Wal-Mart Sears BJ's Kroger JCPenney SUPERVALU Macy’s
Foods Depot
Corp Standalone
(1) Represents 2009–2013 EPS CAGR
(2) Assumes additional future share buyback at a constant forward P/E of 16.0x
(3) Assumes sale of credit card business for $4.4bn on 1/1/09 and uses proceeds to pay down debt
(4) Excludes Target
Source: FactSet and Company filings for Retailers, excluding Target
47
Maintains Investment Grade Credit Ratings
48
Pro Forma 2008E Balance Sheets
The table below sets forth the Balance Sheets for the two entities
"Combined"
Consol. Rating
Target TIP Intercompany Angencies
($mm) Corp REIT Adjustments View
Balance Sheet Data:
8/2/08 Debt $19,655 – – $19,655
1
Less: Debt Paydown with H2 '08 Cash Flow (200) – – (200)
Less: Debt Paydown from Excess Cash – – – 0
CY2008E Debt 19,455 – – $19,455
Less: Debt Paydown from Credit Card Proceeds (4,400) – – (4,400)
Less: Elimination of JPMorgan Financing (3,600) – – (3,600)
2
Plus: Debt Issued for E&P Distribution at TIP REIT – 1,600 – 1,600
3
Plus: Debt Issued to Fund Land Development at TIP REIT – 1,322 – 1,322
Less: Debt Paydown – – –
PF2008E Ending Debt $11,455 $2,922 – $14,377
Plus: Lease Adjusted Debt (8x 2008E Total Lease Expense) 12,309 – (10,956) 1,353
PF2008E Lease Adj. Total Debt $23,764 $2,922 ($10,956) $15,730
(1) Assumes remaining 53% interest of credit card business sold for $4.4bn on 01/01/09 and all proceeds used to pay down debt
(2) $1.6bn of debt issued to fund E&P dividend, which must be paid by December 31 of the year REIT status is elected
(3) Assumes that 1st year land acquisitions financed solely with debt
49
Target Corp: Deleveraging to an “A” Ratings Profile after 2 Years
TIP REIT will be required to fund land capex for the first two years after the
spin-off. Thereafter, TIP REIT will be Target Corp’s land developer through its
Preferred Vendor Agreement. As such, Target Corp will generate significant
free cash flow and will likely deleverage to an A-/A3 ratings profile after two
years
Expected Ratings Profile Mid - High BBB/Baa Mid - High BBB/Baa High BBB/Baa A- / A3
Despite temporarily having a lower credit rating than today, (1) Target Corp will
not need access to capital because it will be significantly free cash flow
positive after growth capex and (2) it will be able to deleverage back to an “A”
category credit rating in a short time frame
50
Target Corp: Bondholders’ Perspective
Less: Credit Card Proceeds (4.4) Sale of 53% interest of credit card receivables for $4.4bn
Less: Debt Paydown from H2 '08E (0.2) Assumes $1bn of stock buyback
(1)
CY2008E Debt 11.5 0.5
(1)
Less: Debt Paydown in '09E (0.6) 0.7 78% of Free Cash Flow generated
(1)
Less: Debt Paydown in '10E (1.2) 0.7 96% of Free Cash Flow generated
(1)
Less: Debt Paydown in '11E (1.3) 0.8 95% of Free Cash Flow generated
(1)
CY2011E Debt $8.3 $0.8
51
What’s Better: Debt or a TIP REIT Master Lease?
TIP REIT’s Master Lease is much more attractive than long-term debt
52
Strong Similarities with a Credit Card Partnership
Control Target can control its credit card Target can control its buildings and
business without the need to own retailing strategy without the need to
receivables own land
Capital Allocation Receivables ownership is Land (and land improvements)
transferred to a party with a lower ownership is transferred to a party
cost of capital with a lower cost of capital
Use of Proceeds Primarily to return capital to Return capital to shareholders (via
shareholders (via buyback) spin-off of TIP REIT)
Taxable Gains Minimal None
Improved Access Credit Card Partner funds future TIP REIT funds future land
To Capital receivables growth procurement and development
53
Valuation Summary
$83
$80
$70
TIP REIT
$60 74% TIP REIT $42
$/Share
$40 $38
$40
The main sources of value creation are incremental earnings generation via the
REIT structure and multiple expansion at TIP REIT and Target Corp
100
$5/share
$70/share
80 $17/share
$/Share
60 $7/share
$40/share
40
20
0
Target Standalone Incremental Earnings TIP REIT Multiple Target Corp Multiple Pro Forma Value/Share
Value/Share (Assuming Generation Expansion Expansion
20-Day Avg. Price
Multiples)
Multiple
Incremental EPS Generation Multiple Expansion Valuation Expansion
"Target Combined" 2009E EPS $4.02 Target Corp 2009E EPS $2.23 $2.23
Target Standalone 2009E EPS $3.40 Implied P/E Multiple 14.2x 2.4x
Difference $0.62 Target Corp ($/share) $32 $5
(1)
Target Current EPS Multiple 11.8x TIP REIT 2009E EPS $1.79 $1.79
(2)
Implied P/E Multiple 21.3x 9.6x
Value Creation from Incremental EPS ($/share) $7 TIP REIT ($/share) $38 $17
(1) Normalized to exclude $112mm of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distributions
(2) Implied P/E multiple of 21.3x based on the mid-point of today’s estimated market value of $27.5bn, implying a 20.5x 2009E AFFO multiple, 4.9% dividend yield and
5.3% cap rate
55
Hypothetical Value Creation over Time (1)
The implied hypothetical future value per share post-transaction for Target
shareholders is $109 in three years
Post-
$109
$110 Transaction
Hypothetical
Valuation
$100 $97
$90
$83
$/Share
$80
$70
$70
$60
$50
Today 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year
TRANSACTION
Target Corp - Hypothetical Value/Share $32 $42 $50 $58
TIP REIT - Hypothetical Value/Share $38 $40 $43 $45
(2)
TIP REIT - Cumulative Dividend $0 $2 $4 $6
Total Hypothetical Value/Share ($) $70 $83 $97 $109
56
Valuation: Potential Questions
and Answers
Potential Questions
58
What’s So Special About
TIP REIT?
TIP REIT Investment Highlights
TIP REIT’s land-only leases are the most secure form of real estate
investment
f Ground leases are the most secure form of real estate investment
f In the event of a default on a ground lease, the building and
improvements revert to the landowner
As such, in the event of tenant default, a landowner can re-lease the land
and the building at significantly lower rent than market and still maintain
its current lease payments
Event of default
Illustrative Example: Significant
$13 sq. ft.
cushion for
Rent rents to fall
Today
in the event
$7 sq. ft. of default
Ground lessor
Rent re-leases land
Ground lessor
AND building
leases land at
$7 / sq. ft. at $13/sq. ft.
Because it will lose its building in the event of default, a tenant is highly
motivated to make its ground lease payments. The unencumbered
building acts as collateral, making the ground lease extremely secure
61
$39 Billion of “Lease Security”
Although the buildings are not pledged as security, they will revert to
the landowner upon a ground lease default. As such, illustratively, we
define TIP REIT’s “Lease Security” as the value of the land and
unencumbered buildings. Based on replacement cost, this “Lease
Security” is valued at $39bn
2008E Estimated Owned Value / Total Value Estimated Replacement Cost per Square Foot $99
Total Sq. Ft. (mm) % Owned Sq. Ft. (mm) Sq. Ft. ($bn) 2008E Owned Square Feet (mm) 189
222 85% 189 $197 37.4 Value of Owned Store Buildings ($bn) $18.7
2008E DCs and WHs: DC and WH Buildings - 25 DCs and WHs in '08E:
2008E Estimated Owned Value / Total Value Estimated Replacement Cost per Square Foot $36
Total Sq. Ft. (mm) % Owned Sq. Ft. (mm) Sq. Ft. ($bn) 2008E Owned Square Feet (mm) 35
44 81% 35 $50 1.8 Value of Owned DC and WH Buildings ($bn) $1.3
Total Real Estate Replacement Value ($bn) $39.1 Total Value of Buildings on Owned Land ($bn) $19.9
(1) Analysis excludes the value of owned buildings on third-party ground leased land; assumes cost of a Target store of $26mm ($13mm building and $13mm land) and cost of DC
and WH of $70mm ($50mm building and $20mm land)
(2) Assumes 1,438 stores, and 25 DCs and WHs on owned land in 2008E
(3) Although the buildings are not pledged as security, the effective result is that they act like “collateral” in the event of tenant default
62
Unencumbered Assets Provide Significant Coverage
$ in billions
"Lease Security"
Value of Land and Unencumbered Buildings $39.1
(1)
TIP REIT Enterprise Value at 4.9% Dividend Yield $27.5
f The master lease provides for an aggregate amount due for all of the
sites
Under the master lease, a failure to pay full rent due on a single site will
cause all of the leases covered by the master lease to be in default
f TIP REIT’s rights under the master lease require Target Corp to satisfy
its lease obligations under all events
As the tenant, Target Corp must continue making lease payments to
maintain ownership of all buildings and other improvements
64
Long-term Lease Provides Bond-like Stability
Given its long-term lease arrangement and its land-only structure, TIP
REIT’s risk profile will be similar to that of a long-term, senior secured,
highly-rated, and inflation-protected bond
65
Significant Growth Opportunity
In addition to its incredibly stable and secure cash flows, TIP REIT
has strong growth prospects, given its initial 2-year exclusive right
as Target Corp’s land developer and its formal Preferred Vendor
Agreement with Target Corp thereafter
f TIP REIT’s Preferred Vendor Agreement with Target Corp will provide it
with a strong pipeline of land development opportunities
Target Corp believes that in the U.S. alone it can double its store count to
more than 3,000 stores
f Significant square footage growth at TIP REIT will translate into strong
NOI growth
2009E – 2013E retail square footage CAGR of 6.8%
2009E – 2013E top-line CAGR of 9.3%
2009E – 2013E NOI CAGR of 9.3%
66
High Quality Locations and Superb Tenant
TIP REIT’s high quality locations and strong tenant profile will
support its premium valuation
S&P 500 Ranked by Market Cap S&P 100 Non-Financials Ranked by Dividend Yield (1)
Market Cap.
Rank Company ($mm) Rank Company Dividend Yield (%)
55 Home Depot 31,439 1 Pfizer 7.7
56 Devon Energy 30,851
2 Verizon Communications 7.3
3 Dow Chemical 7.0
57 Lockheed Martin 30,382 4 Bristol-Myers Squibb 7.0
58 Union Pacific 29,674 5 General Electric 7.0
6 Altria Group 6.7
59 Colgate-Palmolive 28,291
7 AT&T 6.5
60 American Express 27,898 8 Carnival 6.0
61 UnitedHealth Group 27,896 9 Eli Lilly 5.9
10 E.I. DuPont de Nemours 5.6
62 TIP REIT 27,500
11 Merck 5.6
63 Burlington Northern Santa Fe 27,386 12 Philip Morris International 5.3
64 Southern Co. 26,656 13 Caterpillar 5.0
14 TIP REIT (2) 4.9
65 E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. 26,466
15 Home Depot 4.9
16 Southern Co. 4.9
Given its market cap, TIP REIT will be owned by S&P 500 index funds,
large cap funds, real estate index funds, yield-oriented investors, and
investors seeking inflation-protected assets
(1) Represents non-financial companies in the S&P 500 with market caps greater than $20bn
(2) Based on 2009E dividends
68
Why are Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities (“TIPS”) the
Best Comparable Security to
TIP REIT?
How is TIP REIT Similar to TIPS?
70
TIP REIT Can Be Valued As Two Entities
TIP REIT
TIP-like Security Land Developer
Cash flows from the rental income generated Cash flows generated as the Preferred Land
by the existing, “static” ground lease portfolio Developer of new Target stores
Nearly identical to TIPS, given Exclusive right to be Target’s land
stability, security and the long-term, developer for the first two years
inflation-adjusted nature of the post Transaction
Master Lease
Preferred Land Developer after two
Inflation-linked rents based on the years
same CPI measure as used for TIPS
Attractive 6% – 8% square footage
Semi-annual dividend payments on growth for the foreseeable future
the same date as TIPS interest
Provide Facilities Management
payments
services as part of land developer
Highly liquid platform
71
TIP REIT: (1) Valuing the TIP-like Security
The current TIPS yield of 3.0% implies an expected 20-year inflation rate of
only 1.4%. If the expected 20-year inflation rate increased to 2.0% and the
20-year Treasury rate remained constant, then the 20-year TIPS would
yield 2.4% and TIP REIT would yield 4.05% – 4.55%. The higher the inflation
rate, the more valuable TIP REIT will be
72
TIP REIT: (1) Valuing the TIP-like Security (cont’d)
73
TIP REIT: (2) Valuing the Land Developer
Implied valuation at 4.65% – 5.15% cap rate and 10.5% – 12.5% discount rate
2029E terminal NOI: $2,560mm
Valuation range of $0.0bn – $2.3bn
Terminal
Value (1)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ... 2029
Incremental Rental Revenues $74 $145 $257 $391 $551
After-tax Facilities Management Income 12 12 14 15 17
Platform G&A Expense (20) (21) (21) (22) (22)
Value
Total Capex (1,079) (1,008) (1,582) (1,863) (2,190)
Free Cash Flow from Platform ($1,013) ($872) ($1,332) ($1,478) ($1,644)
Terminal Value $55,047
Discount Rate 12.5% 10.5%
Terminal Cap Rate 5.15% 4.65%
Present Value of Platform – $2,293
74
Valuation: TIP REIT in Total
Our mid-point valuation price for TIP REIT of $38 (1) implies a 4.9%
dividend yield for the TIPS-like security and (2) excludes the value
of the Land Developer
$70
Using a “TIPS”-based
TIP REIT valuation analysis, our
mid-point valuation price
$38
of $38/share excludes the
value of TIP REIT’s
development platform
Target Corp
$32
Value: (1) Keep the 190 bps spread (nearly risk-free, given
the security offered by $20bn of unencumbered
buildings), or hedge Target unsecured risk with
CDS
78
High Demand for Inflation-Protected Securities
f Depository institutions
f Insurance companies
Mean 6.00%
Median 6.03%
High 6.61%
Low 5.50%
81
Why is TIP REIT Better than a Private Ground Lease?
Maintenance
Capital None Yes, typically 8% of EBITDA
“Lease Security” $20bn of unencumbered buildings, None. Owns both land buildings
given “land-only” structure
84
TIP REIT: No Maintenance Capital Requirements
TIP REIT’s “land-only” structure maximizes cash flow. Unlike large cap
real estate companies that spend on average 8% of EBITDA to
maintain depreciable properties, TIP REIT requires virtually no
maintenance capital
TIP REIT owns land under 225mm square feet of buildings (1),
including 35mm sq. ft. of distribution facilities. TIP REIT would have a
larger equity market capitalization than any real estate company in the
U.S. today
Equity Total Owned
Market GLA (3)
10 Largest REITs (2) Value ($mm) (mm)
1 TIP REIT (1) 27,500 225
2 Simon Property Group 20,836 160
3 Public Storage 13,891 125
4 Vornado Realty Trust 13,023 81
6 Boston Properties 10,679 41
5 Equity Residential 10,479 na
7 HCP, Inc. 8,450 na
8 Kimco Realty Corporation 7,451 74
9 ProLogis 7,170 487
10 AvalonBay Communities 6,106 na
Given its size and scale, TIP REIT will be a “must own” stock for any
real estate equity investor
(1) Represents 2008E Target Corp stores, distribution facilities and warehouses on TIP REIT land
(2) By equity market value; based on a 20-day trading average as of 10/24/08
(3) Based on company filings as of Q2 2008A
86
TIP REIT versus Triple Net Lease REITs
TIP REIT is a much more stable, faster growing and higher quality
business than any Triple Net Lease REIT
TIP REIT
Leases: @ $38/share
Leased Property Land-only Land and Building Land and Building Land and Building
Lease Type Master Lease Individual Leases Individual Leases Individual Leases
Size:
(2)
Equity Market Value ($mm) $27,500.0 $2,405.5 $1,523.3 $1,428.9
Leverage:
(5)
(Net Debt + Preferred) / EV 8.6% 42.5% 43.8% 50.7%
Growth Opportunity:
Preferred Vendor Agreement Yes No No No
88
Triple Net Lease REIT Tenants: A Closer Look
Leading tenants for triple net lease REITs are predominantly junk credits with
some in bankruptcy; real estate has limited alternative uses
Five Leading Tenants: (23% of Revenues) (1) Five Leading Tenants: (32% of Gross Assets) (1)
Buffets The Pantry 7 Movie theatre REIT with AMC
♦ Filed for bankruptcy in January 2008 ♦ Convenience store operator with
♦ Buffets restaurants have limited bankruptcy concerns Entertainment representing
alternative use ♦ Junk credit with bonds Caa1 rated by over 50% of gross leasable area
Moody’s trading at 14.5%
Kerasotes ShowPlace Theatres Circle K (Susser Holdings)
7 AMC has ~6.4x rent adjusted
♦ Mid-west movie theatre chain ♦ Struggling owner of convenience stores leverage and its bonds trade at
♦ Junk credit rated B1 / B- ♦ Susser is B+ rated by S&P with a negative a 14.1% yield
♦ Real estate has poor alternative use outlook
♦ Senior Unsecured Debt is B3 rated by 7 The movie theatre industry is
Moody’s
highly competitive, very
The Pantry Kerasotes ShowPlace Theatres consumer sensitive and
♦ Convenience store operator with ♦ Mid-west movie theatre chain
suffering secular pressures from
bankruptcy concerns ♦ Junk credit rated B1 / B-
♦ Junk credit with bonds Caa1 rated by ♦ Real estate has poor alternative use at-home-entertainment
Moody’s trading at 14.5%
La Petite Academy Mister Car Wash
7 Movie theatres have limited
♦ Child care/learning center operator ♦ Conveyor car wash chain started in alternative uses
♦ Operate 570+ education centers in 36 Houston, TX
states ♦ Portfolio of 60 car washes, 24 lube shop,
and 3 convenience stores
Children’s World Road Ranger
♦ Child care/learning center operator ♦ Private Mid-west convenience store
♦ Mostly operating in the Mid-west operator
♦ Portfolio of 73 locations in seven states
(1) Source: Wall Street research
89
REIT Multiples
TIP REIT will trade at a significant premium to any REIT because of its
stability, security, and certain growth
2009E EV/EBITDA
2009E EBITDA (x)
19.3x
15.7x
12.7x
6.0x
Note: Target Standalone, Large Cap REITs, and Triple Net Lease REITs stock prices based on 20-day trading average as of 10/24/08
90
TIP REIT’s only commonality with other
REITs is its Tax-Exempt structure
91
Why Would this Transaction
Improve Target Corp’s Valuation?
Improves Store-level ROIC at Target Corp
Assuming the average store real estate costs $26mm, of which $13mm
is allocated to the land and $13mm to the building, we believe store
level return on investment would increase from 23.0% to 39.8%
Owned Store Level Operating Data and Assumptions Standalone Pro Forma
($mm) 2007A 2007A
Retail Sales per Avg. Store $40 $40
Estimated Four-Wall Operating Costs 34 35
Ground Lease Expense per Avg. Store -- 1(1)
Estimated Four-Wall EBIT per Avg. Store $6 $5
Margin (%) 15.0% 13.0%
(1) Assumes $0.9mm of ground lease rent expense, based on $7/sq. ft. lease cost and 131k of store square footage, on average
93
Increases Target Corp’s EPS Growth Rate
Because of its higher ROIC, improved free cash flow profile, and more
efficient capital structure, Target Corp’s EPS growth will exceed that of
Target Standalone
(1) Assumes remaining 53% interest of credit card business sold for $4.4bn on 01/01/09 and all proceeds used to pay down debt
(2) Assumes Target Standalone maintains existing dividend policy
94
Increases Target Corp’s EPS Growth Rate (cont’d)
Pro forma for the Transaction, Target Corp’s long-term EPS growth
rate would be at the top of its peer group
21
17.6%(1),(2),(3)
18
16.0%
15.0% 14.7%(1),(2),(3)
14.5% Average(4) = 11.9%
15 14.0% 14.0%
13.5%
13.0% 12.9%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
12 11.0%
10.0% 10.0%
9.0% 9.0%
9 8.0% 8.0%
0
Whole Kohl's CVS Lowe's Staples Walgreens TJX Costco Safeway Home Best Buy Wal-Mart Sears BJ's Kroger JCPenney SUPERVALU Macy’s
Foods Depot
Corp Standalone
(1) Represents 2009–2013 EPS CAGR
(2) Assumes additional future share buyback at a constant forward P/E of 16.0x
(3) Assumes sale of credit card business for $4.4bn on 1/1/09 and uses proceeds to pay down debt
(4) Excludes Target
Source: FactSet and Company filings for Retailers, excluding Target
95
Multiple Expansion at Target Corp
Target Corp will trade at a higher multiple than current Target Standalone
due to a powerful combination of improved ROIC and EPS growth
ROIC and EPS Growth – key value drivers with a direct impact on
multiples
Increased returns and more efficient cash flow generation allow for
additional share buybacks that foster EPS growth
f “Growth does indeed drive multiples, but only when combined with a
healthy return on invested capital.” (Tim Koller et. al, McKinsey & Co.)
96
Why is this Transaction Ideally
Suited for Target?
“Land-only” REIT Spin-off is Value Maximizing for
Retailers Meeting Certain Criteria
To create the most value from a “Land-only” REIT spin-off, a retailer must meet
certain criteria including very high land ownership, predominantly U.S.-based
real estate and retail sales, strong square footage growth in the U.S., and low
valuation multiples. Target meets ALL of these criteria
Retailer Criteria: Commentary: Application to Target:
f Retailers that own most of their land and 3 Target owns more of its store land
High Land Ownership buildings are ideally suited for a “Land- and buildings than any other big box
only” REIT spin-off retailer in the U.S.
f Retailers with strong growth opportunities 3 Target is one of the fastest growing
in the U.S. can provide a dependable U.S. big box retailers in the country
Strong Square Footage
development pipeline for the “Land-only” with mid-to-high single digit expected
Growth Opportunity in the U.S. sq. ft. long-term growth for the
REIT, enhancing the REIT’s value
foreseeable future
f International real estate is not well suited 3 Target’s real estate is exclusively
Predominantly U.S. Real Estate for a tax-free REIT spin-off, given based in the U.S.
and U.S. Retail Sales regulatory issues and tax complications 3 Target’s EBITDA is generated
exclusively from U.S.-based sales
Strong, Stable Retail Operations f Retailers with strong and stable 3 Target is a market share winner with
operations will be a high-quality tenant leading retail operations, stable FCF
with Attractive Credit Profile
and strong management
98
High Quality, Stable Tenant
Target is ideally suited as a tenant for TIP REIT because of its high
business quality and stable operations, even during a recession
Consider the $1,235 patent-leather satchel with golden hardware designed by Anya
Hindmarch. Mary Hall, a marketing manager at I.B.M. in Redondo Beach, Calif., heard
its siren call. Then she went to Target to purchase a similarly shiny purse, made
out of polyvinyl chloride, by the same designer. Price: $49.99. “In the current
economy, I thought I would reform,” Ms. Hall said. Welcome to “recession chic” and
its personification, the “recessionista,” the new name for the style maven on a budget.
New York Times, 10/24/2008
Indeed, many diehard Nordstrom fans came prepared to open up their purses for $545
Moschino shoes and $1,495 Valentino handbags. Kim Calloway, a 38-year-old senior
accountant, arrived at 7:50 a.m. and walked out with $1,200 worth of jeans, cosmetics
and skin care products, noting that she hasn't cut back on her spending. "I probably
should, but I probably won't," she said. Others, warier about the economy, came more
for the spectacle. Charlene Stone, 49, of Wexford, an affluent suburb, didn't buy
anything but enjoyed looking. Lately, she has been shopping more at discounter
Target for her daughter's clothes. "I'm about the bargains," she said.
Wall Street Journal, 10/25/2008
100
What if TGT’s Valuation Normalizes to Historical Levels?
f Importantly, with 22% of Target’s existing EBITDA representing the ground lease
rents available to TIP REIT, the separation of TIP REIT would allow for significant
shareholder value creation for Target shareholders
Long-term Target Corp’s rating could be First two years of land development
Credit Rating temporarily lowered to a mid- capital will be contractually funded by
to-high BBB category TIP REIT. Thereafter, TIP REIT will be
the preferred land developer
The Transaction’s tax efficiencies
improve free cash flow at Target Corp
(ground lease is expensed while land
is not depreciable)
Pros Cons
Instantly and meaningfully accretive on ⌧ Temporarily lowers Target Corp’s
all key measures (EPS, FCF/share) ratings from A+ / A2 to Mid - High
BBB/Baa
Improves ROIC and EPS growth at Target
Corp
Reduces taxes by ~$520mm in ’09E
Mitigating Factors:
More than triples dividends: $0.60/share
today to $1.86/share in ’09E Target Corp remains investment grade
Improves capital access and decreases Target Corp can pay down debt and
the need for growth capital at Target regain an “A” category credit rating
Corp profile in two years
We believe the Pros of doing this Transaction far outweigh the Cons of
having a temporarily lower rating. Post-Transaction, the Company will
have improved access to capital and lower capital needs. As such, credit
ratings will be less material to Target Corp going forward
105
Another way to pose the question:
106
What If this Were an Acquisition?
108
Other Potential Questions
What is the Governance Structure of TIP REIT?
110
Will Consents Be Needed?
$40 $38
$40
Various methodologies imply a TIP REIT reference range of $25 – $30bn, or $35
– $42/share today
Valuation Range
($25bn – $30bn)
117
TIP REIT Summary Income Statement
Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm, except as noted) CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased Store Land 1,325 1,398 1,501 1,645 1,811 2,004 9.4%
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased DCs & WHs Land 44 46 48 51 55 59 6.3%
Total Gross TIP REIT Revenues 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063 9.3%
Total TIP REIT Net Rental Revenues 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063 9.3%
% of Target Corp Retail Sales 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Plus: Facilities Management Income 144 144 155 170 187 207
Less: Facilities Management Expense (125) (125) (134) (147) (162) (180)
Net Facilities Management Income 19 19 20 22 24 27 9.5%
Net Operating Income 1,388 1,462 1,569 1,718 1,890 2,090 9.3%
Less: Depreciation & Amortization (42) (56) (68) (88) (111) (139)
Less: Interest Expense (205) (188) (221) (316) (428) (559)
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income 38% (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (10)
Net Income 1,099 1,177 1,235 1,268 1,304 1,342 3.3%
Normalized Net Income (1) 1,211 1,289 1,331 1,364 1,400 1,438 2.8%
Normalized Earnings per Share (1) $1.68 $1.79 $1.84 $1.89 $1.94 $1.99 2.8%
% AFFO
Dividends on Common 100.0% 1,141 1,232 1,304 1,356 1,415 1,481 4.7%
Special Dividends - 1,600 - - - -
Normalized Dividends (1) 1,253 1,344 1,400 1,452 1,511 1,577 4.1%
Normalized Dividends per Share (1) $1.74 $1.86 $1.94 $2.01 $2.09 $2.18 4.1%
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
118
TIP REIT Summary Balance Sheet/CF Statement
Calendar Year,
($mm, except as noted) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 1,427 1,533 1,681 1,853 2,051
Less: Interest Expense (188) (221) (316) (428) (559)
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income (7) (8) (8) (9) (10)
Less: Development Capex (1,079) (1,008) (1,582) (1,863) (2,190)
Total Free Cash Flow 154 295 (226) (447) (709)
Total Cash 3 3 3 3 3
Total Debt 2,682 3,690 5,272 7,135 9,325
Total Debt / Total Real Estate Value 11.1% 14.2% 18.6% 22.9% 27.0%
119
TIP REIT Valuation Matrix
Set forth below is a valuation matrix that demonstrates TIP REIT’s trading
multiples at various values within the reference range
Shares O/S
EQUITY VALUE 721.9 24,907 26,351 27,500 29,238 30,682
Implied Value:
Implied Value of Land / Blended Sq. Ft. 225 $111 $117 $122 $130 $137
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distributions
120
TIP REIT NAV (TIPS) Analysis
The implied TIP REIT valuation range on TIPS-based NAV analysis is $26 –
$31bn, or $36 – $44/share today
f Platform Valuation
Based on 20-year DCF analysis
Implied valuation at 4.65% – 5.15% cap rate and 10.5% – 12.5% discount rate
2029E terminal NOI: $2,560mm
Valuation range of $0.0bn – $2.3bn
121
TIP REIT NAV (TIPS) Analysis (cont’d)
The implied TIP REIT valuation range on TIPS-based NAV analysis is $26 –
$31bn, or $36 – $44/share today
122
TIP REIT NAV (Ground Lease Precedents) Analysis
The implied TIP REIT valuation range on Ground Lease Precedents-based NAV
analysis is $22 – $26bn, or $30 – $36/share today
f Platform Valuation
Based on 20-year DCF analysis
Implied valuation at 5.50% – 6.25% cap rate and 10.5% – 12.5% discount rate
2029E terminal NOI: $2,560mm
Valuation range of $0.0bn – $1.1bn
123
TIP REIT NAV (Ground Lease Precedents) Analysis (cont’d)
The implied TIP REIT valuation range on Ground Lease Precedents-based NAV
analysis is $22 – $26bn, or $30 – $36/share today
124
TIP REIT DCF Analysis
The implied TIP REIT valuation range based on DCF analysis is $28 – $34bn, or
$39 – $47/share today
Projected Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Rent (Cash) - Store Land 1,398 1,501 1,645 1,811 2,004 9.4%
Rent (Cash) - DCs & WHs Land 46 48 51 55 59 6.3%
Net Facilities Management Income 19 20 22 24 27 9.5%
Less: G&A Expense (35) (36) (37) (38) (39) 2.5%
EBITDA 1,427 1,533 1,681 1,853 2,051 9.5%
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income (7) (8) (8) (9) (10) 9.5%
Less: Development Capex (1,079) (1,008) (1,582) (1,863) (2,190) 19.4%
Less: Maintenance Capex - - - - - na
UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOWS 341 517 91 (19) (149) na
ILLUSTRATIVE VALUATION
Implied Equity Value
($ in millions, except per share amounts)
Terminal NOI - Store Land ¹ 2,209 Terminal
Terminal Cap Rate - Store Land 4.9% Store Discount Rate
Terminal Value - Store Land 45,072 Cap Rate 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%
5.15% 30,450 29,107 27,836
Terminal NOI - DCs & WHs Land ² 65 4.90% 31,939 30,529 29,195
Terminal Cap Rate - DCs & WHs Land 8.5% 4.65% 33,588 32,104 30,700
Terminal Value - DCs & WHs Land 764
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate (%) ⁴
Present Value of TV 29,791
Sum of Discounted Cash Flows (2009-2013) ³ 739 Terminal
Implied Enterprise Value 30,529 Store Discount Rate
Less: Debt (01/01/09) - Cap Rate 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%
Plus: Cash (01/01/09) - 5.15% 2.6 3.6 4.5
Implied Equity Value 30,529 4.90% 2.9 3.8 4.7
4.65% 3.1 4.1 5.0
(1) Assumes store land 2014E NOI growth equal to 9.4%: NOI includes store related net facilities management income
(2) Assumes DCs & WHs land 2014E NOI growth equal to 6.3% NOI includes DCs & WHs related net facilities management income
(3) Assumes mid-year convention
(4) Normalized to exclude impact of development Capex in exit year
125
TIP REIT Valuation—12-Month Price Target
126
Valuation Analysis – Target Corp
Target Corp Summary Valuation Analysis: Today
The implied valuation range for Target Corp based on several methodologies
outlined below is $20.3 – $25.3bn, or $28 – $35/share today
Valuation Range
($20.3bn–$25.3bn)
Trading Data – – 5 Year P/E of 15.9x and 5 Year EV/EBITDA of 8.2x 25.6 31.5
Target 5 Year Historical – CY2009 EPS: $2.23 and CY2009 EBITDA: $5,172mm
(P/E and EV/EBITDA) – Current P/E is 11.8x and current EV/EBITDA is 6.0x
128
Target Corp Summary Income Statement
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 766 722 722 722 707 677
Earnings per Share ($) $2.17 $2.23 $2.67 $3.20 $3.70 $4.27 17.6%
129
Target Corp Summary Balance Sheet/CF Statement
130
Target Corp Valuation Matrix
Set forth below is a valuation matrix that demonstrates Target Corp’s trading
multiples at various stock prices
Value per Share
Valuation Range ($mm) $28.00 $30.00 $31.58 $33.00 $35.00
Shares O/S
131
Trading Data For Other Retailers (1)
Total Debt/
EV/CY08E EV/CY09E EV/CY10E P/E Ratio PEG Ratio
Stock % of Equity IBES CY08E Adj.
(2 )
Price 52wk Value EV Sales EBITDA Sales EBITDA Sales EBITDA CY09E CY10E CY09E CY10E LTG EBITDA Debt/CY08E
Company name ($) High ($mm) ($mm) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) EBITDAR (x)
Target –
Standalone
(3) 39.98 28,863 39,818 0.61 6.3 0.58 6.0 0.54 5.5 11.8 10.2 0.8 0.7 14.7 (5) 1.8 2.0
Target Corp( 4) 31.58 – 22,800 33,755 0.52 6.8 0.49 6.5 0.46 5.9 14.2 11.8 0.8 0.7 17.6 (5) 2.3 3.6
Discounters
Wal-Mart 54.91 86.0 216,168 255,900 0.63 8.4 0.58 7.8 0.55 7.4 14.4 13.0 1.3 1.2 11.0 1.5 1.8
Mean/Median 0.63 8.4 0.58 7.8 0.55 7.4 14.4 13.0 1.3 1.2 11.0 1.5 1.8
Supermarkets
Kroger 26.08 84.2 17,196 24,618 0.32 6.2 0.30 5.8 0.28 5.6 12.3 11.2 1.4 1.2 9.0 1.9 2.8
Safeway 22.39 62.2 9,617 15,105 0.34 4.9 0.33 4.8 0.32 4.7 9.3 8.8 0.8 0.7 12.0 1.9 2.7
SUPERVALU 18.32 42.3 3,879 12,755 0.28 4.8 0.28 4.8 0.28 4.7 6.5 6.1 0.8 0.8 8.0 3.4 4.0
Whole Foods 15.67 30.7 2,198 3,013 0.37 5.8 0.34 5.2 0.31 4.9 14.1 11.2 0.9 0.7 16.0 1.6 3.4
Mean 0.33 5.4 0.31 5.2 0.30 5.0 10.6 9.3 1.0 0.9 11.3 2.2 3.2
Median 0.33 5.4 0.32 5.0 0.30 4.8 10.8 10.0 0.8 0.7 10.5 1.9 3.1
Department Stores
Macy's 12.31 36.5 5,176 14,260 0.57 5.0 0.58 5.3 0.58 5.3 9.8 9.1 1.2 1.1 8.0 3.7 4.0
Kohl's 35.31 60.8 10,769 12,545 0.75 5.8 0.72 5.7 0.69 5.4 11.3 10.3 0.8 0.7 15.0 1.0 2.1
Sears 70.38 50.5 8,897 11,581 0.24 6.4 0.25 7.2 0.25 7.3 32.4 43.9 3.2 4.4 10.0 2.1 4.0
JCPenney 25.45 44.3 5,652 7,249 0.38 3.9 0.39 4.1 0.37 3.9 8.8 7.4 1.0 0.8 9.0 2.0 2.8
Mean 0.48 5.3 0.49 5.6 0.47 5.5 15.6 17.7 1.5 1.8 10.5 2.2 3.2
Median 0.47 5.4 0.48 5.5 0.48 5.4 10.5 9.7 1.1 1.0 9.5 2.1 3.4
Other Large Cap Retailers
CVS 30.13 68.0 43,682 52,640 0.61 7.2 0.57 6.4 0.52 5.7 10.6 9.4 0.7 0.7 14.5 1.3 2.5
Home Depot 21.59 67.8 36,678 47,282 0.65 6.5 0.66 6.7 0.64 6.0 13.2 11.1 1.1 0.9 12.0 1.6 2.3
Lowe's 19.85 69.7 29,089 33,699 0.69 6.1 0.68 6.1 0.64 5.5 13.6 11.5 1.0 0.9 14.0 1.0 1.4
Walgreens 25.63 63.4 25,369 26,346 0.43 6.0 0.40 5.5 0.37 5.0 10.6 9.5 0.8 0.7 13.5 0.3 2.4
Costco 57.95 77.0 25,310 24,463 0.33 9.2 0.30 8.4 0.28 8.0 17.8 15.9 1.4 1.2 12.9 0.9 1.3
Staples 18.08 68.0 12,936 17,200 0.72 8.2 0.61 7.1 0.58 6.5 11.5 9.7 0.8 0.7 14.0 2.1 3.5
Best Buy 28.42 52.7 11,718 14,589 0.32 5.1 0.29 4.8 0.26 4.5 9.0 8.0 0.8 0.7 12.0 0.9 2.4
TJX 27.43 73.1 11,686 12,023 0.61 6.1 0.59 5.9 0.55 5.5 11.5 10.2 0.9 0.8 13.0 0.4 2.8
BJ's 35.16 79.4 2,108 1,994 0.20 6.2 0.18 6.0 0.17 5.7 15.4 13.9 1.5 1.4 10.0 0.0 2.5
Mean 0.51 6.7 0.47 6.3 0.45 5.8 12.6 11.0 1.0 0.9 12.9 1.0 2.3
Median 0.61 6.2 0.57 6.1 0.52 5.7 11.5 10.2 0.9 0.8 13.0 0.9 2.4
Mean(6) 0.47 6.2 0.45 6.0 0.42 5.6 12.9 12.2 1.1 1.1 11.9 1.5 2.7
(6)
Median 0.41 6.1 0.39 5.9 0.37 5.5 11.5 10.2 0.9 0.8 12.0 1.5 2.6
(6)
High 0.75 9.2 0.72 8.4 0.69 8.0 32.4 43.9 3.2 4.4 16.0 3.7 4.0
Low (6) 0.20 3.9 0.18 4.1 0.17 3.9 6.5 6.1 0.7 0.7 8.0 0.0 1.3
(1) As of October 24, 2008
(2) Assumes 20-day average stock price, except for Target Corp
(3) Assumes sale of credit card business for $4.4bn on 1/1/09 and uses proceeds to pay down debt
(4) Implied multiples from midpoint of Target Corp valuation ($20.3bn–$25.3bn)
(5) Represents 2009–2013 EPS CAGR
(6) Excludes Target
132
Implied Valuation Based on Other Retailers
The implied Target Corp valuation range based on other publicly traded
retailers is $18 – $28bn, or $24 – $39/share today
2009E 2009E
Multiple Metric ($mm) Multiple Range Implied Value ($bn)
133
Target Corp Comparable Companies-Trading Multiples(1)
Target is currently trading near the midpoint of its peer group
12
8.4
7.8
8 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.5(2) 6.4 Average(4) = 6.0
6.1 6.0(3) 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8
4.1
4
0
Costco Wal-Mart Sears Staples Home CVS Lowe's BJ's TJX Kroger Kohl's Walgreens Macy's Whole Best Buy Safeway SUPERVALU JCPenney
Depot Foods
Corp Standalone
30
Average(4) = 12.9
25
20 17.8
15.4 14.4 14.2(2) 14.1 13.6 13.2
15 12.3 11.8(3) 11.5 11.5 11.3 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.3 9.0 8.8
10 6.5
5
0
Sears Costco BJ's Wal-Mart Whole Lowe's Home Kroger Staples TJX Kohl's CVS Walgreens Macy's Safeway Best Buy JCPenney SUPERVALU
Foods Depot
Corp Standalone
(1) As of October 24, 2008
(2) Implied multiple from midpoint of Target Corp valuation ($20.3bn–$25.3bn)
(3) Represents fiscal year ending January
(4) Excludes Target
134
Target Corp Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
The implied Target Corp valuation range based on DCF analysis is $26 – $35bn,
or $37 – $49/share today
Projected Calendar Year,
($mm) 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
1
EBITDA 5,172 5,751 6,485 7,169 7,968
Less: Depreciation and Amortization (1,884) (2,017) (2,199) (2,410) (2,654)
EBIT 3,288 3,735 4,285 4,759 5,314
Less: Taxes @ 38% (1,262) (1,434) (1,645) (1,827) (2,041)
After-Tax EBIT 2,025 2,301 2,640 2,931 3,274
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 1,884 2,017 2,199 2,410 2,654
Less: Net Capital Expenditures (2,826) (2,850) (3,400) (3,870) (4,416)
Plus: Decrease in Working Capital 79 120 167 193 224
UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOWS 1,162 1,588 1,606 1,665 1,736
ILLUSTRATIVE VALUATION
Implied Equity Value
($ in millions, except per share amounts)
2
Terminal EBITDA 8,824 Terminal Discount Rate
Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple 6.5x Multiple 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
Terminal Value 57,357 6.0x 29,668 27,993 26,404
3
Present Value of TV 35,614 6.5x 32,536 30,732 29,022
3
Sum of Discounted Cash Flows (2009-2013) 6,073 7.0x 35,403 33,472 31,641
Implied Enterprise Value 41,687
4
Less: Debt (1/1/09) (11,455)
4 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate (%) 5
Plus: Cash (1/1/09) 500
Implied Equity Value 30,732 Terminal Discount Rate
Multiple 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
6.0x 2.4 3.3 4.2
6.5x 2.9 3.8 4.7
Notes: 7.0x 3.3 4.2 5.1
1 Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn; ongoing royalty stream of $150mm
2 Assumes 2014E EBITDA growth equal to 2013E growth
3 Assumes mid-year convention
4 Assumes $4.4bn of proceeds from sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables used to pay down debt
5 Assumes capital expenditures equal to depreciation and amortization in perpetuity
135
Target Corp—12-Month Price Target
The implied valuation range for Target Corp based on several methodologies
outlined below is $27.5 – $32.5bn, or $38 – $45/share 12 months from today
Valuation Range
($27.5bn–$32.5bn)
Trading Data – – 5 Year P/E of 15.9x and 5 Year EV/EBITDA of 8.2x 30.6 37.0
Target 5 Year Historical – CY2010 EPS: $2.67 and CY2010 EBITDA: $5,751mm
(P/E and EV/EBITDA) – Current P/E is 11.8x and current EV/EBITDA is 6.0x
136
Credit Rating Analysis
Maintains Investment Grade Credit Rating
We believe the Rating Agencies will adopt one of two possible analytical
approaches when assessing the credit profiles of the ‘new’ Target Corp and
TIP REIT – ‘Consolidated’ vs. ‘De-consolidated’
f Target Corp and TIP REIT will have integrated, mutually dependent business models
Vast majority of TIP REIT revenues will be based on Target Corp land leases for many years
Lease arrangements and large size of land portfolio lead to high correlation of credit quality between TIP
REIT and Target Corp
TIP REIT will also provide facility management services to Target Corp
f Target Corp and TIP REIT will be separate legal entities with common public ownership at the onset;
shareholder base expected to diverge over time due to differing business profiles of the two entities
f Based on this structure, we believe that the Rating Agencies will adopt one of either two possible
analytical approaches for their analysis of Target Corp and TIP REIT:
a ‘Consolidated’ analysis of the combined group/system, or
a ‘De-consolidated’ analysis of the two separate entities on a standalone basis, but with some linkage
f A ‘Consolidated’ approach is supported by the integrated, economically inter-twined business
relationship between Target Corp as lessor and TIP REIT as landowner
f A ‘De-consolidated’ approach is supported by the fact that the companies will be separate legal entities
with no common ownership, except for shareholders initially
f Agencies may not unanimously take the same analytical approach when assessing Target Corp and TIP
REIT profile
Leading to potential for one or more agency taking a ‘consolidated’ approach and another taking a ‘de-
consolidated’ approach
138
Maintains Investment Grade Credit Rating (cont’d)
139
Structural and Legal
Considerations
Land Development / Procurement
Set forth below is an illustrative example of how Target Corp and TIP REIT
can work together on future land procurement
f Immediately after spin-off, TIP REIT enters into a two-year exclusive agreement to
develop land for Target Corp
f Afterwards, Target Corp will have a Preferred Vendor Agreement with TIP REIT
It is anticipated that TIP REIT will act as the land procurement developer for Target
Corp
Target Corp will notify TIP REIT when it identifies a place to build a store and will
inquire about TIP REIT’s interest in providing land procurement development
services for the specified area (assembling, clearing and entitling one or more
parcels of land)
If TIP REIT expresses interest, the parties will discuss terms over a standard period
(e.g. 10+ days); upon reaching terms, TIP REIT will commence land procurement
development services
If TIP REIT decides not to pursue the opportunity offered by Target Corp, or the
parties do not agree upon terms within the specified standard period, Target Corp
may secure the services of another party or undertake the land procurement
development services on its own
141
Land Development / Procurement (cont’d)
f Target Corp will have the right to purchase land for the store directly, but in
that case Target Corp must notify TIP REIT to determine whether TIP REIT
wishes to purchase the land from Target Corp and lease it back to Target
Corp
If TIP REIT expresses interest and agrees on market terms within the specified
standard period, TIP REIT will purchase the land from Target Corp, clear and
entitle it and lease it back to Target Corp on the agreed terms
f After the fifth anniversary of the spin-off, either TIP REIT or Target Corp may
terminate the Preferred Vendor Agreement
f Store development: Target Corp will retain its store development function and
will be solely responsible for developing its owned stores
142
Property Transfer Taxes
143
Supporting Data
Store–level ROIC
P&L Data: Standalone Pro Forma
($mm) 2007A 2007A
Retail Sales $61,471 $61,471
Retail Gross Margin 19,576 19,576
Retail EBIT $4,213 $4,213
Plus: Advertising (50% of Consolidated) 598 598
Plus: Buying Group Expense and Occupancy Expense 1,321 1,321
Less: Incremental Ground Lease Rent (Stores) -- (1,235) (1)
Less: Incremental Ground Lease Rent (DCs & WHs) -- (46) (2)
Plus: Estimated Corporate G&A 615 615
% of Revenues 1.0% 1.0%
Plus: Estimated Distribution Center Costs 2,459 2,505
% of Revenues 4.0% 4.1%
Estimated Four-Wall Retail EBIT $9,040 $7,970
(1) Assumes $1.2bn of ground lease rent expense from stores, based on $7/sq. ft. lease cost, 131k of square footage per store and 1,350 stores, on average; implying a cap rate of 7.0%
(2) Assumes $46mm of ground lease rent expense from DCs & WHs, based on $1.25/sq. ft. lease cost, 1.4mm of square footage per DC & WH and 26 DCs & WHs, on average
145
Triple Net Lease REIT Tenants: Detailed Review
% of Adj. Debt/ LTM EBITDA/ LTM EBIT/ Yield ³
Tenant Revenue Industry Moody's / S&P ¹ LTM EBITDAR ² (x) Interest (x) ² Interest (x) ² (%) Commentary
Buffets 6 Restaurant WR / NR 9.8 0.8 0.3 In default ♦ March 31, 2008: Buffets auditor raises
"going concern" doubt
♦ January 22, 2008: Buffets files
for bankruptcy
Kerasotes ShowPlace Theatres 5 Movie Theater B1/ B- na na na na ♦ Moody’s does not expect Kerasotes to
become free cash flow positive until after
2009
The Pantry (NASDAQ: PTRY) 4 Convenience Store WR / B+ 6.5 4 2.4 1.2 14.5 ♦ July 17, 2008: Moody's downgrades
Pantry's Corporate Family Rating to B2 and
assigned a negative rating outlook.
♦ April 9, 2008: Merrill Lynch reduces its
investment rating on The Pantry to “Sell”
La Petite Academy 4 Education Services WR/NR na na na na ♦ June 26, 2008: Morgan Stanley Private
Equity acquires a 60% stake in Learning
Care Group Inc., the parent company of La
Petite Academy
Children's World 4 Education Services na / na na na na na ♦ na
146
Model – Standalone
Standalone Model – Income Statement
Status Status
Quo Quo Credit Card Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm) CY2007 CY2008 Adj. CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Retail Sales 61,471 64,892 64,892 68,249 73,356 80,479 88,710 98,241 9.5%
Base Sales Growth (%) 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Credit Revenue 1,896 2,078 (1,936) 143 150 161 177 195 216 9.5%
Credit Sales Growth 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Total Revenue 63,367 66,970 65,034 68,399 73,517 80,655 88,905 98,457 9.5%
Total Revenue Growth 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
COGS 42,929 45,459 45,459 47,777 51,279 56,177 61,919 68,563
% of Retail Sales 69.8% 70.1% 70.1% 70.0% 69.9% 69.8% 69.8% 69.8%
SG&A (excluding D&A and Rent Expense) 12,392 13,058 13,058 13,834 14,761 16,115 17,761 19,668
% of Retail Sales 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% 20.3% 20.1% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Credit Expenses 950 1,460 (1,460) - - - - - -
% of Credit Revenue 50.1% 70.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail EBITDAR 6,150 6,375 6,375 6,637 7,316 8,187 9,029 10,011 10.8%
Retail EBITDAR Margin (%) 10.0% 9.8% 9.8% 9.7% 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%
Credit EBITDAR 946 619 (476) 143 150 161 177 195 216 9.5%
Credit EBITDAR Margin (%) 49.9% 29.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
EBITDAR 7,096 6,993 6,517 6,787 7,478 8,364 9,224 10,227 10.8%
EBITDAR Margin (%) 11.2% 10.4% 10.0% 9.9% 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4%
Rent Expense 165 169 169 173 178 182 187 191
EBITDA 6,931 6,824 6,348 6,614 7,300 8,182 9,038 10,036 11.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.9% 10.2% 9.8% 9.7% 9.9% 10.1% 10.2% 10.2%
Depreciation & Amortization 1,659 1,807 1,807 1,940 2,085 2,288 2,522 2,793
% of Retail Sales 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Operating Income 5,272 5,017 4,541 4,674 5,215 5,894 6,516 7,243 11.6%
Net Interest (Income) / Expense 647 995 555 694 722 798 897 1,003
Income Tax Provision 1,776 1,483 1,469 1,528 1,725 1,957 2,158 2,396
Tax Rate (%) 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Net Income 2,849 2,539 2,517 2,452 2,767 3,139 3,461 3,844 11.9%
Net Income Margin (%) 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
Current Diluted Shares Outstanding 882.6 819.0 819.0 721.9 720.4 697.3 677.3 659.1
Shares Repurchase (63.7) (97) (97.0) (1.6) (23.1) (20.0) (18.2) (14.0)
Share Repurchase from Options 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Shares Outstanding 819.0 721.9 721.9 720.4 697.3 677.3 659.1 645.2
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 850.8 765.9 765.9 721.1 708.8 687.3 668.2 652.2
Earnings per Share ($) $3.33 $3.32 $3.29 $3.40 $3.90 $4.57 $5.18 $5.89 6.71 14.7%
148
Standalone Model – Balance Sheet
Status Status
Quo Quo Pro Forma Calendar Year,
($mm) CY2007 CY2008 Adj. CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash & Equivalents 2,450 500 0 500 607 653 716 790 874
Trade Receivables 8,054 8,383 (8,383) - - - - - -
Other Current Assets 8,402 9,232 9,232 9,710 10,436 11,450 12,621 13,977
Property, Plant & Equipment, gross 31,982 35,734 35,734 39,639 43,497 48,479 54,212 60,817
Accumulated Depreciation (7,887) (9,350) (9,350) (11,290) (13,375) (15,663) (18,185) (20,977)
Property, Plant & Equipment, net 24,095 26,384 26,384 28,348 30,122 32,816 36,027 39,840
Other Non-Current Assets 1,559 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368
Total Assets 44,560 45,867 37,484 40,033 42,579 46,350 50,805 56,059
Debt 17,090 19,455 (8,000) 11,455 11,455 12,455 13,955 15,705 17,455
Other Current Liabilities 9,818 10,757 10,757 11,313 12,160 13,340 14,705 16,285
Other Non-Current Liabilities 2,345 2,392 2,392 2,392 2,392 2,392 2,392 2,392
Total Liabilities 29,253 32,604 24,604 25,160 27,007 29,687 32,802 36,132
Total Equity 15,307 13,264 (383) 12,880 14,873 15,572 16,663 18,004 19,927
Total Equity & Liabilities 44,560 45,867 37,484 40,033 42,579 46,350 50,805 56,059
149
Standalone Model – Cash Flow Statement
Calendar Year,
($mm) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 6,614 7,300 8,182 9,038 10,036
less: Interest Expense (694) (722) (798) (897) (1,003)
less: Taxes (1,528) (1,725) (1,957) (2,158) (2,396)
Share-based Compensation 73 73 73 73 73
less: Increase in Net Working Capital 79 120 167 193 224
less: Increase Funding of CC Growth 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operating Activities 4,544 5,045 5,667 6,249 6,933
150
Standalone Model – Build-ups and Credit Metrics
Status
Quo Pro Forma Calendar Year,
Sales Buildup CY2007 CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Square Feet (mm) 208 222 232 241 256 273 292
$ / Sq. Ft. 296 293 294 304 314 325 337
Retail Sales 61,471 64,892 68,249 73,356 80,479 88,710 98,241
Implied Retail Sales Growth (%) 5.6% 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Sq. Footage Growth (%) 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
SSS Growth (%) (0.9%) 0.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Status Status
Quo Quo Pro Forma
Credit Metrics CY2007 CY2008 CY2008
Lease Adjusted Debt 8x 1,320 1,353 1,353 1,387 1,421 1,457 1,493 1,531
Actual Debt 17,090 19,455 11,455 11,455 12,455 13,955 15,705 17,455
Total Lease Adjusted Debt 18,410 20,808 12,808 12,842 13,876 15,412 17,198 18,986
Total Lease Adjusted Debt/EBITDAR 2.6 x 3.0 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 1.9 x 1.8 x 1.9 x 1.9 x
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.5 x 2.9 x 1.8 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.7 x
EBITDAR / (Interest + Rent) 8.7 x 6.0 x 9.0 x 7.8 x 8.3 x 8.5 x 8.5 x 8.6 x
EBITDA / Interest 10.7 x 6.9 x 11.4 x 9.5 x 10.1 x 10.3 x 10.1 x 10.0 x
151
Model – TIP REIT
TIP REIT Model – Income Statement
Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm, except as noted) CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased Store Land 1,325 1,398 1,501 1,645 1,811 2,004 9.4%
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased DCs & WHs Land 44 46 48 51 55 59 6.3%
Total Gross TIP REIT Revenues 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063 9.3%
Total TIP REIT Net Rental Revenues 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063 9.3%
% of Target Corp Retail Sales 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Plus: Facilities Management Income 144 144 155 170 187 207
Less: Facilities Management Expense (125) (125) (134) (147) (162) (180)
Net Facilities Management Income 19 19 20 22 24 27 9.5%
Net Operating Income 1,388 1,462 1,569 1,718 1,890 2,090 9.3%
Less: Depreciation & Amortization (42) (56) (68) (88) (111) (139)
Less: Interest Expense (205) (188) (221) (316) (428) (559)
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income 38% (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (10)
Net Income 1,099 1,177 1,235 1,268 1,304 1,342 3.3%
Normalized Net Income (1) 1,211 1,289 1,331 1,364 1,400 1,438 2.8%
Normalized Earnings per Share (1) $1.68 $1.79 $1.84 $1.89 $1.94 $1.99 2.8%
% AFFO
Dividends on Common 100.0% 1,141 1,232 1,304 1,356 1,415 1,481 4.7%
Special Dividends - 1,600 - - - -
Normalized Dividends (1) 1,253 1,344 1,400 1,452 1,511 1,577 4.1%
Normalized Dividends per Share (1) $1.74 $1.86 $1.94 $2.01 $2.09 $2.18 4.1%
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
153
TIP REIT Model – Balance Sheet
Cash - 3 3 3 3 3
Debt:
Revolver - 3 3 3 3 3
New Debt - 2,679 3,687 5,269 7,132 9,322
Total Debt - 2,682 3,690 5,272 7,135 9,325
Total Liabilities & Equity 11,382 12,408 13,348 14,842 16,593 18,644 10.7%
154
TIP REIT Model – Cash Flow Statement
155
TIP REIT Model – Rent Build-up
Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
Assumptions ($mm, except as noted): CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Total Combined Stores - Sq. Ft. Count
Owned Stores 1,438 189 200 209 224 240 259
Combined (Ground-leased) Stores 172 23 23 23 23 23 23
Third-party Leased Stores 73 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Combined Stores Square Footage 222 232 241 256 273 292 5.9%
Total Combined Stores Square Footage Growth 4.7% 4.1% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
Rent / Square Foot - Store Land $7.00 $7.00 $7.18 $7.35 $7.54 $7.73
CPI Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Average Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased Land 1,325 1,398 1,501 1,645 1,811 2,004 9.4%
Rent / Square Foot - DCs & WHs Land $1.25 $1.25 $1.28 $1.31 $1.35 $1.38
CPI Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Average Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Total TIP REIT Gross Revenues 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063 9.3%
156
TIP REIT Model – FFO & AFFO Reconciliations,
Credit Statistics and Implied Metrics
Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
FFO & AFFO Reconciliations: CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Net Income 1,099 1,177 1,235 1,268 1,304 1,342
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 42 56 68 88 111 139
Funds from Operations 1,141 1,232 1,304 1,356 1,415 1,481 4.7%
Normalized AFFO (1) 1,253 1,344 1,400 1,452 1,511 1,577 4.1%
Credit Statistics:
Coverage:
EBITDA / Interest Expense 7.6x 6.9x 5.3x 4.3x 3.7x
(EBITDA - Maintenance Capex) / Interest Expense 7.6x 6.9x 5.3x 4.3x 3.7x
Leverage:
Total Debt / EBITDA 1.9x 2.4x 3.1x 3.9x 4.5x
Capitalization:
Total Debt / Total Real Estate Value 11.1% 14.2% 18.6% 22.9% 27.0%
(NOI capped at 6.0% and 8.5% for store land and DCs & WHs land, respectively)
Implied Metrics:
Incremental Stores Square Footage 10 10 14 17 19
SuperTarget Stores 50.0% 5 5 7 8 10
Implied New Combined SuperTarget Stores 0.177 Sq. Ft. / SuperTarget 29 27 41 47 54
% of Total New Stores Built 41.4% 41.5% 41.4% 41.2% 41.2%
Combined Total Number of SuperTarget Stores 239 268 295 336 383 437
General Merchandise Stores 50.0% 5 5 7 8 10
Implied New Combined GM Stores 0.124 Sq. Ft. / GM 41 38 58 67 77
% of Total New Stores Built 58.6% 58.5% 58.6% 58.8% 58.8%
Combined Total Number of General Merchandise Stores 1,444 1,485 1,523 1,581 1,648 1,725
Total Implied New Stores 70 65 99 114 131
Cumulative Combined Total Implied Stores 1,683 1,753 1,818 1,917 2,031 2,162
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
157
TIP REIT Model – Capex Schedule
Maintenance / Retail Capital Expenditures 1,714 1,827 1,785 1,968 2,179 6.2%
Target Corp - Store Buildings 1,714 1,827 1,785 1,968 2,179
TIP REIT - - - - -
TIP REIT Land - Store Yes 1,056 999 1,560 1,836 2,158
TIP REIT Land - DCs & WHs Yes 22 10 22 26 31
158
Model – Target Corp
Target Corp Model – Income Statement
Status
Quo REIT Credit Card Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm) CY2008 Adj. Adj. CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Retail Sales 64,892 64,892 68,249 73,356 80,479 88,710 98,241 9.5%
Base Sales Growth (%) 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Credit Revenue 2,078 (1,936) 143 150 161 177 195 216 9.5%
Credit Sales Growth na 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Total Revenue 66,970 65,034 68,399 73,517 80,655 88,905 98,457 9.5%
Total Revenue Growth 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
COGS 45,459 45,459 47,777 51,279 56,177 61,919 68,563
% of Retail Sales 70.1% 70.1% 70.0% 69.9% 69.8% 69.8% 69.8%
SG&A (excluding D&A and Rent Expense) 13,058 (20) 13,038 13,814 14,740 16,093 17,739 19,646
% of Retail Sales 20.1% 20.1% 20.2% 20.1% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Credit Expenses 1,460 (1,460) - - - - - -
% of Credit Revenue 70.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail EBITDAR 6,375 6,395 6,657 7,337 8,208 9,051 10,033 10.8%
Retail EBITDAR Margin (%) 9.8% 9.9% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%
Credit EBITDAR 619 (476) 143 150 161 177 195 216 9.5%
Credit EBITDAR Margin (%) 29.8% na na na na na na
EBITDAR (Pre-spin) 6,993 6,537 6,807 7,498 8,385 9,246 10,249 10.8%
EBITDAR Margin (%) 10.4% 10.1% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4%
Current Embedded Facility Management Costs (125) (125) (125) (134) (147) (162) (180)
External Facility Mgmt. Payments to TIP REIT 144 144 144 155 170 187 207
Current Rent Expense 169 169 173 178 182 187 191
Additional Rent Expense 1,369 1,444 1,549 1,696 1,866 2,063
Pro Forma EBITDA (Post-spin) 6,824 4,980 5,172 5,751 6,485 7,169 7,968 11.4%
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.2% 7.7% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1%
Depreciation & Amortization 1,807 (42) 1,765 1,884 2,017 2,199 2,410 2,654
% of Retail Sales 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Operating Income 5,017 3,215 3,288 3,735 4,285 4,759 5,314 12.8%
Net Interest (Income) / Expense 995 515 673 611 531 509 623
Income Tax Provision 1,483 1,037 1,004 1,199 1,441 1,632 1,802
Tax Rate (%) 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Net Income 2,539 1,663 1,611 1,924 2,312 2,618 2,890 15.7%
Net Income Margin (%) 3.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Current Diluted Shares Outstanding 819.0 721.9 721.9 721.9 721.9 693.0
Shares Repurchase (97.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (29.0) (31.4)
Total Shares Outstanding 721.9 721.9 721.9 721.9 693.0 661.6
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 765.9 721.9 721.9 721.9 707.5 677.3
Earnings per Share ($) $2.17 $2.23 $2.67 $3.20 $3.70 $4.27 4.92 17.6%
160
Target Corp Model – Balance Sheet
Status
Quo REIT Credit Card Pro Forma Calendar Year,
($mm) CY2008 Adj. Adj. CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash & Equivalents 500 0 500 682 734 805 887 982
Trade Receivables 8,383 (8,383) - - - - - -
Other Current Assets 9,232 9,232 9,710 10,436 11,450 12,621 13,977
Property, Plant & Equipment, gross 35,734 (12,228) 23,506 26,332 29,182 32,582 36,452 40,868
Accumulated Depreciation (9,350) 846 (8,505) (10,389) (12,406) (14,605) (17,015) (19,669)
Property, Plant & Equipment, net 26,384 (11,382) 15,001 15,943 16,776 17,977 19,437 21,199
Other Non-Current Assets 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368
Total Assets 45,867 26,101 27,703 29,314 31,599 34,312 37,526
Total Equity 13,264 (11,382) (383) 1,498 3,182 5,179 7,564 8,278 8,771
Total Equity & Liabilities 45,867 26,101 27,703 29,314 31,599 34,312 37,526
161
Target Corp Model – Cash Flow Statement
Calendar Year,
($mm) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 4,980 5,172 5,751 6,485 7,169 7,968
less: Interest Expense (515) (673) (611) (531) (509) (623)
less: Taxes (1,037) (1,004) (1,199) (1,441) (1,632) (1,802)
Share-based Compensation 73 73 73 73 73 73
less: Increase in Net Working Capital 79 120 167 193 224
less: Increase Funding of CC Growth 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operating Activities 3,501 3,647 4,134 4,752 5,294 5,841
162
Target Corp Model – Build-ups and Credit Metrics
Pro Forma Calendar Year,
Sales Buildup CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Square Feet (mm) 222 232 241 256 273 292
$ / Sq. Ft. 293 294 304 314 325 337
Retail Sales 64,892 68,249 73,356 80,479 88,710 98,241
Implied Retail Sales Growth (%) 5.2% 7.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Sq. Footage Growth (%) 4.7% 4.1% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
SSS Growth (%) 0.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Buildings (Tgt Corp) % of Development 50% 1,112 1,023 1,615 1,902 2,237
Land % of Development 50% 1,079 1,008 1,582 1,863 2,190
– Target Corp 0 0 0 0 0
– TIP REIT 1,079 1,008 1,582 1,863 2,190
Other (Target Corp) % of Development 0% 0 0 0 0 0
Credit Metrics
Lease Adjusted Debt 8x 1,353 12,309 12,935 13,811 15,024 16,421 18,033
Actual Debt 19,455 11,455 10,817 9,584 8,303 8,938 10,078
Total Lease Adjusted Debt 20,808 23,764 23,752 23,394 23,327 25,359 28,111
Total Lease Adjusted Debt/EBITDAR 3.0 x 3.6 x 3.5 x 3.1 x 2.8 x 2.8 x 2.8 x
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.9 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 1.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.3 x
EBITDAR / (Interest + Rent) 6.0 x 3.2 x 3.0 x 3.2 x 3.5 x 3.6 x 3.6 x
EBITDA / Interest 6.9 x 9.7 x 7.7 x 9.4 x 12.2 x 14.1 x 12.8 x
163
Target:
A Revised Transaction
November 19, 2008
Neither Pershing nor any of its representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of the Information or any other written or oral communication made in connection with this presentation or the Transaction.
The Information includes certain forward-looking statements, estimates and projections with respect to the anticipated future financial,
operating and stock market performance of Target in the absence of the Transaction and the two public companies that may result if the
Transaction is completed. Such statements, estimates and projections may prove to be substantially inaccurate, reflect significant
assumptions and judgments that may prove to be substantially inaccurate, and are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies
beyond Pershing’s control, including those described under the caption “Risk Factors” in Target’s filings with the Securities and
Exchange Commission as well as general economic, credit, capital and stock market conditions, competitive pressures, geopolitical
conditions, inflation, interest rate fluctuations, regulatory and tax matters and other factors.
Pershing and its representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of the Information or any
errors therein or omissions therefrom, including under applicable securities laws. The Information does not purport to include all
information that may be material with respect to the Transaction or Target. Thus, shareholders and others should conduct their own
independent investigation and analysis of Target, the Transaction and the Information.
The Information is not intended to provide the basis for fully evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to,
the Transaction, Target, the securities of Target or any other matter. Except where otherwise indicated, the Information speaks as of the
date hereof. Neither Pershing nor any of its representatives undertakes any obligation to correct, update or revise the Information or to
otherwise provide any additional materials.
The preparation and distribution of this presentation should not be taken as any form of commitment on the part of Pershing to take any
action in connection with the Transaction.
Pershing is in the business of buying and selling securities. It has, and may in the future, buy, sell or change the form of its position in
Target for any or no reason.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that (i) any discussion of U.S.
tax matters contained in this communication (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for
the purpose of avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code; (ii) any such discussion of tax matters is written in connection with
the promotion or marketing of the matters addressed; and (iii) you should seek advice from an independent advisor.
1
Recent Events
2
Agenda
Target’s Concerns
A Revised Transaction
Appendix
3
Review of the October 29th
Transaction
Updating Our Model
f Halted share buybacks in Q4 2008 and for the full year 2009
f Used a 20-day average stock price of $37 per share for Target
5
Objectives
6
October 29th Transaction
Pre–Spin Post–Spin
TARGET TARGET
Shareholders Shareholders
Target Inflation
TARGET TARGET Corp
Ground Protected REIT
Leases
Existing Facilities
Owned
Retail Land Mgmt.
Buildings 1
Business Services
f New Target Corp owns its buildings f Leases back land to Target Corp through
on 75-year ground leases a Master Lease for a 75-year term
(1) Includes third-party ground leases f After two years, becomes Target Corp’s
Preferred Vendor for land procurement
7
Unlocking Immense Real Estate Value
$37 $36
$40
10
Benefits of the October 29th Transaction
1. Allows Target Corp to retain control over its buildings and brand
There is risk to Target’s status quo. Retailers’ access to capital has been
called into question
TIP REIT is better able to access capital for future land acquisitions than
Target today, given TIP REIT’s immense security, stability, and unleveraged
balance sheet
TIP REIT can use non-cash currency (OP units) for tax-efficient real estate
acquisitions
11
Benefits of the October 29th Transaction (cont’d)
(1) Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn on 01/01/09, with Target retaining $150mm of credit card EBITDA in ’09E
12
Benefits of the October 29th Transaction (cont’d)
6. Creates over $510mm of tax savings in the first year post transaction
Optimizes ownership of land, a non-depreciable asset, through a REIT
structure
(1) Assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn on 01/01/09, with proceeds used to pay down debt
13
Benefits of the October 29th Transaction (cont’d)
(1) Excludes $112mm (approximately $0.15/share) of incremental interest expense due to CY2009 cash E&P distribution
14
TIP REIT Investment Highlights
S&P 500 Ranked by Market Cap (1) S&P 100 Non-Financials Ranked by Dividend Yield (2)
Market Cap (1)
Rank Company ($mm) Rank Company Dividend Yield (%)
50 Time Warner 32,821 1 Altria Group 7.9
2 Pfizer 7.9
51 Colgate-Palmolive 31,323
3 General Electric 7.7
52 Devon Energy 30,960 4 Bristol-Myers Squibb 6.3
53 Boeing 30,129 5 Verizon Communications 6.1
6 E.I. DuPont de Nemours 6.0
54 Union Pacific 29,160
7 Eli Lilly 5.9
55 Lockheed Martin 28,948 8 AT&T 5.8
56 Southern 27,273 9 Philip Morris International 5.6
10 Merck 5.6
57 Burlington Northern Santa Fe 27,257
11 TIP REIT (3) 5.0
58 TIP REIT 27,000 12 Southern Co. 4.8
59 Celgene 26,965 13 Caterpillar 4.5
14 Home Depot 4.4
60 Lowe’s 26,689 15 Dominion Resources 4.3
Given its market cap, TIP REIT will be owned by S&P 500 index funds,
large cap funds, real estate index funds, yield-oriented investors, and
investors seeking inflation-protected assets
(1) As of November 14, 2008
(2) Represents non-financial companies in the S&P 500 with market caps greater than $20bn
(3) Based on 2009E dividends
16
TIP REIT: Unlike Any Existing REIT Today
Maintenance
Capital None Yes, typically 8% of EBITDA
“Lease Security” $20bn of unencumbered buildings, None. Owns both land buildings
given “land-only” structure
17
How is TIP REIT Similar to TIPS?
18
Feedback from REIT Investors
19
Interest from a Broad Group of Investors
Pensions
Endowments
Income-oriented funds
20
Target’s Concerns Regarding the
October 29th Transaction
Target’s Concerns
3. Credit ratings, “The adverse impact that the company believes the
borrowing costs, proposed structure would have on Target's debt
and liquidity ratings, borrowing costs and liquidity, exacerbated by
current market conditions”
22
Target’s Concerns (cont’d)
23
A Revised Transaction
Revised Transaction: <20% IPO of TIP REIT
pre- or post-IPO), Target sells Paydown using Proceeds from Credit Card Sale
Securitized Debt $1.9
remaining 53% interest in its Unsecured Debt 2.5
credit card receivables Total $4.4
Paydown using IPO Proceeds 3.0
f For this analysis, we have Paydown using Free Cash Flow
(1)
1.8
assumed $4.4bn of proceeds Total Debt Paydown $9.2
from the sale
$ in billions f $1.6bn of cash proceeds from
Gross Receivables CY 2008E $9.0 the IPO is left on TIP REIT’s
Allowance (0.8) balance sheet
Net Receivables CY 2008E $8.2
(1) Assumes TIP REIT funds land development capital expenditures of approximately $0.9bn post-IPO using debt
26
Post IPO: Spin-off TIP REIT and Purge E&P
Assuming a 19.9% IPO of TIP REIT at a 15% IPO discount, the IPO would generate
roughly $5.1bn in gross proceeds. After frictional costs and expenses, IPO proceeds
of $3.0bn will be paid to retire Target debt and $1.6bn will remain at TIP REIT
$ in billions
TIP REIT Equity Value $27.0
Implied 2009E Dividend Yield 5.0%
(1) Calculation based on allocating and subsequently paying down $3.0bn of debt
(2) Calculation based on adding net proceeds of $4.6bn to captive TIP REIT equity value of $24.0bn; assumes cash balance of $1.6bn at TIP REIT upon IPO
(3) Assumes a 19.9% IPO of TIP REIT at a 15% IPO discount; net of paying $500mm after-tax frictional costs and fees, IPO proceeds are $4.6bn
(4) Assumes approximately $350mm of after-tax frictional costs and $150mm of IPO fees
28
Sources and Uses of Cash at Target Corp
Proceeds from the IPO and the sale of the remaining interest in the
credit card receivables can be used to pay down debt
IPO Proceeds to Retire Target Debt $3.0 Paydown of Securitized Debt $1.9
Total Cash Sources $9.2 Total Cash Uses (Debt Paydown) $9.2
(1) Reflects cash flow generated after working capital, capex, and dividends; assumes maintenance of $500mm minimum cash balance;
assumes TIP REIT funds land development capital expenditures of approximately $0.9bn by issuing debt during the first year post-IPO
29
Post Spin-off: Target Corp Credit Ratings
$9.2bn of
Total Debt
Paydown
(1) Based on $14.8bn of unsecured debt as of Q3 ’08A, reduced in 4Q ’08E by $2.5bn through debt pay down with free cash flow and cash on balance sheet (while maintaining
$500mm minimum cash balance)
(2) Based on 2008E EBITDAR for Target Standalone of $6.9bn and 2008E Rent Expense of $0.2bn
(3) Based on 2010E EBITDAR for Target Corp post spin-off of $7.3bn and 2010E Rent Expense of $1.7bn
30
Illustrative Timeline
2009CY 2010CY
31
Valuation Analysis
$79
$80
$65
TIP REIT
$60 TIP REIT
77% $33
(Captive)
$/Share
$37 $30
$40
(3) (3)
‘09E Dividend Yield 5.0% ‘10E Dividend Yield 4.8%
Cap Rate 5.4% Cap Rate 5.1%
(3) (3)
'09E P/AFFO 20.0x '10E P/AFFO 21.0x
'09E EV/EBITDA 19.1x '10E EV/EBITDA 20.1x
Note: Target valuation assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card receivables for $4.4bn, with Target retaining $150mm of credit card EBITDA
For illustrative purposes, assumes 19.9% REIT IPO occurs on 01/01/09 and full REIT Spin-off occurs on 01/01/10
(1) Based on 20-day trading average as of 11/14/08; assumes sale of remaining 53% interest on credit card business with proceeds used to pay down debt
(2) Based on mid-point of valuation analysis
(3) Based on Adjusted Equity Value excluding cash balance of $1.6bn reserved for E&P distribution in 2010E
32
Tremendous Upside at Various Assumptions
6.0x
Target Corp
6.5x 56 57 59 61 63 65 69
7.0x 59 60 62 64 66 68 72
7.5x 62 64 65 67 69 72 75
8.0x 66 67 69 70 73 75 78
6.0x
Target Corp
36
Pros and Cons of the Revised Transaction
Assuming the spin-off of the remaining >80% interest in TIP REIT occurs
in 2010, the Revised Transaction offers many pros and few cons
Pros Cons
Meaningfully accretive on all key ⌧ Dilution: <20% IPO of TIP REIT results in
measures (EPS, FCF/share) some dilution to Target shareholders, versus the
October 29th Transaction proposal, equivalent to
Maintains “A” category credit rating ~$1.50 per share in total value (2)
More than doubles dividends: $0.64/share ⌧ Delay of certain benefits: Certain
today to $1.49 (1) share in 2010 benefits such as reduced taxes and increased
Improves capital access and decreases dividends won’t be fully achieved until the spin-
the need for growth capital at Target Corp off is complete
Mitigating Factors:
Reduces taxes by over $510mm
In the context of total value creation from
Improves Target’s ROIC and EPS growth
Target’s $37 stock price, the dilution is minimal
Increases the total stock price from Despite the longer transaction plan, the
$37/share to $79/share by 2010 increased flexibility afforded to Target will
(1) Assumes a 19.9% IPO which increases TIP REIT’s shares outstanding to
approximately 940mm shares from 755mm shares pre-IPO
significantly reduce execution risks
(2) Assumes a 15% IPO discount and a 19.9% IPO 37
Addressing Management’s Concerns
6.5x 56 57 59 61 63 65 69
7.0x 59 60 62 64 66 68 72
An IPO would give the investment community
several quarters to value TIP REIT before it is spun
7.5x 62 64 65 67 69 72 75
off, effectively seasoning the market and attracting
8.0x 66 67 69 70 73 75 78 long-term investors
39
Addressing Management’s Concerns (cont’d)
3) Credit ratings, 3 Target will maintain its “A” category credit ratings
borrowing costs, at all times
and liquidity
Post spin-off of TIP REIT, Target Corp will maintain
its “A” category credit rating as a result of
deleveraging
40
Addressing Management’s Concerns (cont’d)
41
Addressing Management’s Concerns (cont’d)
In today’s world, even the best retailers may lose access to capital
The risk of the status quo is that Target may lose access to capital
and not be able take advantage of the current environment
43
Why Is Now the Time?
X Formation of TIP REIT and the issuance of pro forma financials will take
several months
X To achieve a TIP REIT IPO in Q3 2009, the Company will need to authorize
work on this Revised Transaction in the beginning of 2009
44
Fast Forward: 2010E and Beyond
Potentially explosive
earnings growth at Target
Improved retail sales Corp, particularly given
recent expense reductions
45
Pershing’s Relationship with Target
Tax-free IPO and spin of Target Inflation Protected REIT (or “TIP REIT”)
as Groundlessor and Facility Manager
Target Inflation
TARGET TARGET Corp
Ground Protected REIT
Leases
Existing Facilities
Owned
Retail Land Mgmt.
Buildings 1
Business Services
f New Target Corp owns its buildings f Leases back land to Target Corp through
on 75-year ground leases a Master Lease for a 75-year term
49
Revised Transaction: Steps 1 - 2
Step1: Formation of TIP REIT Transaction Description
Target Corp f Step 1a: The existing company (“Target Corp”) forms
a new subsidiary (“TIP REIT”) and transfers to it the
Facilities Management Services business, the owned
Facilities
Land TIP REIT Management
Services
land under the stores, and the owned land under the
1a distribution facilities
TIP REIT will assume a portion of Target’s liabilities
Target Corp f Step 1b: TIP REIT leases the land back to Target
1b 75-year
Corp (i.e. the parent company) through a Master
Master Lease TIP REIT Lease for a 75-year term
Facilities
Land Management
Services
f Step 2a: After some period of time, TIP REIT offers up
to 19.9% of its shares in a primary IPO for cash
Step 2: IPO / REIT Election
Cash proceeds could be retained for corporate
Target Corp business purposes or used to reduce TIP REIT debt
Public
Cash
f Step 2b: TIP REIT elects REIT status effective
2b TIP REIT
2a immediately
<20% of
TIP REIT Simultaneously, TIP REIT drops the Facilities
Shares
Facilities Management Services business into a new
Land
corporation, a taxable REIT subsidiary (TRS)
Mgmt Services
(TRS)
50
Revised Transaction: Steps 3 - 6
Step 5: Spin-off Transaction Description
Target
Shareholders
f Step 3: Target Corp sells the remaining 53% interest
5 in the credit card receivables business to an
Tax-free Target TIP REIT
Investment Partner
Spin-off Shareholders
Corp
of TIP REIT f Step 4: Target Corp pays down debt using proceeds
shares held
by Target >80% <20% from the credit card receivables and the TIP REIT
pays down assumed debt using proceeds from the TIP
TIP REIT REIT IPO
f Step 5: Target Corp spins off its remaining >80.1%
Land
Facilities Mgmt
Services
interest in TIP REIT to its shareholders pro rata and
(TRS)
tax-free
Step 6: E&P Purge
f Step 6: TIP REIT pays a taxable dividend (at the
TIP REIT Target
Shareholders Shareholders dividend tax rate to non-corporate taxpayers) to
shareholders equal to its allocated portion of Target’s
<20% >80%
$16bn of retained Earnings and Profits (“E&P”),
estimated to be $8bn based on the implied mid-point
TIP REIT
Target valuation of TIP REIT/Target Corp
$8bn Taxable Corp
6 Dividend
(E&P Purge)
20% of the dividend ($1.6bn) may be paid in cash
with the remaining paid in TIP REIT common stock
Land
Facilities Mgmt
Services
This cash dividend can be deferred until the end of
(TRS) the calendar year in which the spin-off occurs
75-year Lease
51
Why are Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities (“TIPS”) the
Best Comparable Security to
TIP REIT?
TIP REIT: (1) Valuing the TIP-like Security
The current TIPS yield of 2.8% implies an expected 20-year inflation rate of
only 1.6%. If the expected 20-year inflation rate increased to 2.0% and the
20-year Treasury rate remained constant, then the 20-year TIPS would
yield 2.4% and TIP REIT would yield 4.35% – 4.85%. The higher the inflation
rate, the more valuable TIP REIT will be
53
TIP REIT: (2) Valuing the Land Developer
Implied valuation at 4.75% – 5.25% cap rate and 10.5% – 12.5% discount rate
2029E terminal NOI: $2,503mm
Valuation range of $0.0bn – $2.4bn
Terminal
Value (1)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ... 2029
Incremental Rental Revenues $62 $122 $233 $366 $524
After-tax Facilities Management Income 12 12 14 15 17
Platform G&A Expense (20) (21) (21) (22) (22)
Value
Total Capex (890) (830) (1,539) (1,801) (2,117)
Free Cash Flow from Platform ($836) ($716) ($1,313) ($1,442) ($1,599)
Terminal Value $52,694
Discount Rate 12.5% 10.5%
Terminal Cap Rate 5.25% 4.75%
Present Value of Platform – $2,387
54
Valuation: TIP REIT in Total
$67
Using a “TIPS”-based
TIP REIT
valuation analysis, our
$36 mid-point valuation price
of $36/share excludes the
value of TIP REIT’s
development platform
Target Corp
$31
Mean 6.00%
Median 6.03%
High 6.61%
Low 5.50%
58
Why is TIP REIT Better than a Private Ground Lease?
X We have updated our model to reflect Q3 2008 results as well as new guidance
provided by Target management on its earnings call on Monday, November 17,
2008
X Consolidated Model
Assume TIP REIT is captive and fully consolidated with the retailer for accounting
purposes
For illustrative purposes, financials show full consolidation of the captive REIT
throughout the entire projection period (such consolidation would cease upon full
spin-off on 1/1/10)
X TIP REIT Model
$1.6bn of cash E&P distribution now funded with proceeds from the 19.9% IPO of
TIP REIT instead of additional debt
X Target Corp Model
Adjustments to opening balance sheet reflect de-consolidation of TIP REIT from
Consolidated Model
61
Model – Consolidated
Consolidated Model – Income Statement
Status Status
Quo Quo Credit Card 20% IPO Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm) CY2007 CY2008 Adj. TIP REIT CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Retail Sales 61,471 63,720 63,720 66,600 71,171 78,082 86,068 95,316 9.4%
Base Sales Growth (%) 4.5% 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Credit Revenue 1,896 2,087 (1,944) 144 150 160 176 194 215 9.4%
Credit Sales Growth 4.5% 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Total Revenue 63,367 65,807 63,863 66,750 71,331 78,258 86,262 95,530 9.4%
Total Revenue Growth 4.5% 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
COGS 42,929 44,531 44,531 46,544 49,632 54,373 60,075 66,521
% of Retail Sales 69.8% 69.9% 69.9% 69.9% 69.7% 69.6% 69.8% 69.8%
SG&A (excluding D&A and Rent Expense) 12,392 12,899 15 12,914 13,596 14,423 15,744 17,352 19,213
% of Retail Sales 20.2% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.3% 20.2% 20.2% 20.2%
Credit Expenses 950 1,520 (1,520) - - - - - -
% of Credit Revenue 50.1% 72.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail EBITDAR 6,150 6,290 6,275 6,460 7,117 7,965 8,641 9,582 10.4%
Retail EBITDAR Margin (%) 10.0% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% 10.0% 10.2% 10.0% 10.1%
Credit EBITDAR 946 567 (424) 144 150 160 176 194 215 9.4%
Credit EBITDAR Margin (%) 49.9% 27.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
EBITDAR 7,096 6,857 6,418 6,610 7,277 8,140 8,834 9,796 10.3%
EBITDAR Margin (%) 11.2% 10.4% 10.1% 9.9% 10.2% 10.4% 10.2% 10.3%
Rent Expense 165 169 169 173 178 182 187 191
EBITDA 6,931 6,688 6,249 6,436 7,099 7,958 8,648 9,605 10.5%
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.9% 10.2% 9.8% 9.6% 10.0% 10.2% 10.0% 10.1%
Depreciation & Amortization 1,659 1,819 1,819 1,940 2,073 2,274 2,507 2,776
% of Retail Sales 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Operating Income 5,272 4,870 4,431 4,496 5,026 5,684 6,141 6,829 11.0%
Net Interest (Income) / Expense 647 942 (440) (232) 270 333 352 422 469 515
Income Tax Provision 1,776 1,545 1,519 1,469 1,659 1,879 2,032 2,272
Tax Rate (%) 38% 39% 36% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36%
Minority Interest Expense 259 259 257 266 273 280 289
Net Income 2,849 2,383 2,383 2,438 2,750 3,110 3,360 3,753 11.4%
Net Income Margin (%) 4.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Current Diluted Shares Outstanding 882.6 819.0 819.0 754.7 754.7 702.1 688.3 678.3
Shares Repurchase (63.7) (64) (64.3) 0.0 (52.5) (13.8) (10.0) (7.2)
Share Repurchase from Options 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Shares Outstanding 819.0 754.7 754.7 754.7 702.1 688.3 678.3 671.1
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 850.8 773.7 773.7 754.7 728.4 695.2 683.3 674.7
Earnings per Share ($) $3.33 $3.08 $3.08 $3.23 $3.78 $4.47 $4.92 $5.56 6.29 14.6%
63
Consolidated Model – Balance Sheet
Status Status
Quo Quo Credit Card 20% IPO Pro Forma Calendar Year,
($mm) CY2007 CY2008 Adj. TIP REIT CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash & Equivalents 2,450 500 0 1,600 2,100 2,100 500 500 500 500
Trade Receivables 8,054 8,249 (8,249) - - - - - -
Other Current Assets 8,402 8,903 8,903 9,305 9,944 10,909 12,025 13,317
Property, Plant & Equipment, gross 31,982 35,316 35,316 38,427 41,510 46,271 51,715 57,993
Accumulated Depreciation (7,887) (9,265) (9,265) (11,205) (13,278) (15,552) (18,059) (20,836)
Property, Plant & Equipment, net 24,095 26,051 26,051 27,223 28,233 30,719 33,656 37,157
Other Non-Current Assets 1,559 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277 1,277
Total Assets 44,560 44,980 38,331 39,905 39,953 43,405 47,458 52,251
Debt 17,090 17,811 (8,000) (2,974) 6,837 5,925 6,675 7,425 8,175 8,925
Other Current Liabilities 9,818 10,373 10,373 10,842 11,586 12,711 14,011 15,516
Other Non-Current Liabilities 2,345 2,521 2,521 2,521 2,521 2,521 2,521 2,521
Total Liabilities 29,253 30,705 19,731 19,288 20,782 22,657 24,707 26,963
Total Equity & Liabilities 44,560 44,980 38,331 39,905 39,953 43,405 47,458 52,251
64
Consolidated Model – Cash Flow Statement
65
Consolidated Model – Build-ups and Credit Metrics
Status
Quo Pro Forma Calendar Year,
Sales Buildup CY2007 CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Square Feet (mm) 208 222 231 239 254 270 289
$ / Sq. Ft. 296 286 288 297 308 318 330
Retail Sales 61,471 63,720 66,600 71,171 78,082 86,068 95,316
Implied Retail Sales Growth (% ) 3.7% 4.5% 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Sq. Footage Growth (% ) 7.0% 4.0% 3.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
SSS Growth (% ) (3.1%) 0.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Status Status
Quo Quo Pro Forma
Credit M etrics CY2007 CY2008 CY2008
Lease Adjusted Debt 8x 1,320 1,353 1,353 1,387 1,421 1,457 1,493 1,531
Actual Debt 17,090 17,811 6,837 5,925 6,675 7,425 8,175 8,925
Total Lease Adjusted Debt 18,410 19,164 8,190 7,312 8,097 8,882 9,669 10,456
Total Lease Adjusted Debt/EBITDAR 2.6 x 2.8 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.5 x 2.7 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x
EBITDAR / (Interest + Rent) 8.7 x 6.2 x 14.6 x 13.1 x 13.7 x 13.5 x 13.5 x 13.9 x
EBITDA / Interest 10.7 x 7.1 x 23.2 x 19.3 x 20.2 x 18.9 x 18.5 x 18.6 x
66
Consolidated Model – Tax Adjustments
Less: State Tax Savings (16) (16) (16) (16) (17) (17)
Less: Tax Adj. for Public REIT Shareholders (102) (98) (101) (104) (106) (110)
Less: Facilities Mgmt Tax Adj. (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
Net Consolidated Taxes 1,519 1,469 1,659 1,879 2,032 2,272
Adjustment Calculations:
State Tax Savings:
Total REIT Net Income 1,303 1,292 1,334 1,370 1,408 1,450
Net Income to Other Shareholders 259 257 266 273 280 289
Net Income to Target 1,044 1,035 1,069 1,097 1,128 1,161
Assumed Tax Rate (150bps less than current rate) 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 37%
Total State Tax Savings (16) (16) (16) (16) (17) (17)
67
Model – TIP REIT
TIP REIT Model – Income Statement
Pro Forma Calendar Year,
($mm, except as noted) CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased Store Land 1,327 1,389 1,482 1,625 1,789 1,980
Gross TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased DCs & WHs Land 44 44 45 49 52 56
Total Gross TIP REIT Revenues 1,371 1,433 1,527 1,673 1,842 2,037
Total TIP REIT Net Rental Revenues 1,371 1,433 1,527 1,673 1,842 2,037
% of Target Corp Retail Sales 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Plus: Facilities Management Income 144 144 154 169 186 206
Less: Facilities Management Expense (125) (125) (134) (147) (162) (179)
Net Facilities Management Income 19 19 20 22 24 27
Less: Depreciation & Amortization (44) (55) (66) (85) (108) (134)
Less: Interest Expense - (62) (103) (196) (304) (431)
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income 38% (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (10)
Net Income 1,303 1,292 1,334 1,370 1,408 1,450
Normalized Net Income (1) 1,303 1,292 1,334 1,370 1,408 1,450
Normalized Earnings per Share (1) $1.38 $1.37 $1.42 $1.45 $1.49 $1.54
% AFFO
Dividends on Common 100.0% 1,347 1,347 1,400 1,455 1,515 1,584
Special Dividends (2) - - - - - -
Normalized Dividends per Share (1) $1.43 $1.43 $1.49 $1.54 $1.61 $1.68
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2010 cash E&P distribution
(2) $1.6bn of proceeds from a 19.9% IPO of TIP REIT used to pay cash E&P distribution in CY 2010
69
TIP REIT Model – Balance Sheet
Cash - 3 3 3 3 3
Debt:
Revolver - 3 3 3 3 3
New Debt - 890 1,720 3,258 5,059 7,176
Total Debt - 893 1,723 3,261 5,062 7,179
Total Liabilities & Equity 10,948 11,785 12,549 14,003 15,696 17,680
70
TIP REIT Model – Cash Flow Statement
Calendar Year,
($mm, except as noted) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash Flow from Operating Activities:
EBITDA 1,353 1,417 1,511 1,659 1,828 2,025
Less: Interest Expense (205) (62) (103) (196) (304) (431)
Less: Taxes on Facilities Mgmt. Income (7) (7) (8) (8) (9) (10)
Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities 1,141 1,347 1,400 1,455 1,515 1,584
71
TIP REIT Model – Rent Build-up
Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
Assumptions ($mm, except as noted): CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Total Combined Stores - Sq. Ft. Count
Owned Stores 1,435 190 198 207 221 237 256
Combined (Ground-leased) Stores 176 23 23 23 23 23 23
Third-party Leased Stores 73 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Combined Stores Square Footage 222 231 239 254 270 289 5.7%
Total Combined Stores Square Footage Growth 4.0% 3.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
Rent / Square Foot - Store Land $7.00 $7.00 $7.18 $7.35 $7.54 $7.73
CPI Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Average Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
TIP REIT Revenues from Ground-leased Land 1,327 1,389 1,482 1,625 1,789 1,980 9.3%
Rent / Square Foot - DCs & WHs Land $1.25 $1.25 $1.28 $1.31 $1.35 $1.38
CPI Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Average Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Total TIP REIT Gross Revenues 1,371 1,433 1,527 1,673 1,842 2,037 9.2%
72
TIP REIT Model – FFO & AFFO Reconciliations,
Credit Statistics and Implied Metrics
Pro Forma Calendar Year,
FFO & AFFO Reconciliations: CY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net Income 1,303 1,292 1,334 1,370 1,408 1,450
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 44 55 66 85 108 134
Funds from Operations 1,347 1,347 1,400 1,455 1,515 1,584
Credit Statistics:
Coverage:
EBITDA / Interest Expense 22.7x 14.6x 8.5x 6.0x 4.7x
(EBITDA - Maintenance Capex) / Interest Expense 22.7x 14.6x 8.5x 6.0x 4.7x
Leverage:
Total Debt / EBITDA 0.6x 1.1x 2.0x 2.8x 3.5x
Capitalization:
Total Debt / Total Real Estate Value 3.7% 6.7% 11.6% 16.4% 21.1%
(NOI capped at 6.0% and 8.5% for store land and DCs & WHs land, respectively)
Implied Metrics:
Incremental Stores Square Footage 9 8 14 16 19
SuperTarget Stores 50.0% 4 4 7 8 9
Implied New Combined SuperTarget Stores 0.177 Sq. Ft. / SuperTarget 25 23 41 47 54
% of Total New Stores Built 41.0% 41.8% 41.4% 41.6% 41.5%
Combined Total Number of SuperTarget Stores 239 264 287 328 375 429
General Merchandise Stores 50.0% 4 4 7 8 9
Implied New Combined GM Stores 0.125 Sq. Ft. / GM 36 32 58 66 76
% of Total New Stores Built 59.0% 58.2% 58.6% 58.4% 58.5%
Combined Total Number of General Merchandise Stores 1,445 1,481 1,513 1,571 1,637 1,713
Total Implied New Stores 61 55 99 113 130
Cumulative Combined Total Implied Stores 1,684 1,745 1,800 1,899 2,012 2,142
(1) Normalized to exclude incremental interest expense due to CY2010 cash E&P distribution
73
TIP REIT Model – Capex Schedule
Calendar Year,
($mm, except as noted) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Combined Expenditures 3,111 3,083 4,761 5,444 6,277
TIP REIT Land - Store Yes 890 830 1,509 1,776 2,088
TIP REIT Land - DCs & WHs Yes - - 30 24 29
74
Model – Target Corp
Target Corp Model – Income Statement
Status
Quo REIT Pro Forma Calendar Year, CAGR
($mm) CY2009 Adj. CY2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 '09 - '13
Retail Sales 66,600 66,600 71,171 78,082 86,068 95,316 9.4%
Base Sales Growth (%) 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Credit Revenue 150 150 160 176 194 215 9.4%
Credit Sales Growth na 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Total Revenue 66,750 66,750 71,331 78,258 86,262 95,530 9.4%
Total Revenue Growth 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
COGS 46,544 46,544 49,632 54,373 60,075 66,521
% of Retail Sales 69.9% 69.9% 69.7% 69.6% 69.8% 69.8%
SG&A (excluding D&A and Rent Expense) 13,596 (35) 13,561 14,387 15,708 17,314 19,175
% of Retail Sales 20.4% 20.4% 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1%
Credit Expenses - - - - - -
% of Credit Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
76
Target Corp Model – Balance Sheet
Status
Quo REIT Pro Forma Calendar Year,
($mm) CY2009 Adj. CY2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash & Equivalents 2,100 (1,600) 500 500 500 500 500
Trade Receivables - - - - - -
Other Current Assets 9,305 9,305 9,944 10,909 12,025 13,317
Property, Plant & Equipment, gross 38,427 (12,723) 25,704 27,958 31,179 34,823 38,983
Accumulated Depreciation (11,205) 941 (10,264) (12,271) (14,461) (16,860) (19,503)
Property, Plant & Equipment, net 27,223 (11,782) 15,440 15,686 16,719 17,962 19,480
Total Equity & Liabilities 39,905 26,523 27,407 29,405 31,765 34,574
77
Target Corp Model – Cash Flow Statement
Calendar Year,
($mm) 2010 2011 2012 2013
EBITDA 5,020 5,588 6,300 6,819 7,580
less: Interest Expense (302) (330) (346) (463) (555)
less: Taxes (1,077) (1,235) (1,430) (1,504) (1,665)
Share-based Compensation 73 73 73 73 73
less: Increase in Net Working Capital 105 159 184 213
less: Increase Funding of CC Growth 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operating Activities 3,714 4,201 4,756 5,110 5,646
78
Target Corp Model – Build-ups and Credit Metrics
Pro Forma Calendar Year,
Sales Buildup CY2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Square Feet (mm) 231 239 254 270 289
$ / Sq. Ft. 288 297 308 318 330
Retail Sales 66,600 71,171 78,082 86,068 95,316
Implied Retail Sales Growth (% ) 6.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7%
Sq. Footage Growth (% ) 3.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
SSS Growth (% ) 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Buildings (Tgt Corp) % of Development 50% 890 830 1,583 1,837 2,160
Land % of Development 50% 890 830 1,539 1,801 2,117
– Target Corp 0 0 0 0 0
– TIP REIT 890 830 1,539 1,801 2,117
Other (Target Corp) % of Development 0% 0 0 0 0 0
Credit M etrics
Lease Adjusted Debt 8x 1,387 12,851 13,637 14,844 16,228 17,823
Actual Debt 5,925 5,036 4,595 5,544 5,892 6,697
Total Lease Adjusted Debt 7,312 17,887 18,232 20,388 22,120 24,520
Total Lease Adjusted Debt/EBITDAR 1.1 x 2.7 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 x
Total Debt / EBITDA 0.9 x 1.0 x 0.8 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x
EBITDAR / (Interest + Rent) 13.1 x 3.5 x 3.6 x 3.7 x 3.6 x 3.5 x
EBITDA / Interest 19.3 x 16.6 x 16.9 x 18.2 x 14.7 x 13.7 x
79
The Nominees for
Shareholder Choice
SHAREHOLDERS OF TARGET ARE URGED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT CAREFULLY BECAUSE IT CONTAINS
IMPORTANT INFORMATION. The definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents relating to the solicitation of proxies
by Pershing Square are available at no charge on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov. Shareholders can also obtain free
copies of the definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents at www.TGTtownhall.com or by calling Pershing Square’s
proxy solicitor, D. F. King & Co., Inc., at 1 (800) 290-6427.
Pershing Square and certain of its members and employees and Michael L. Ashner, James L. Donald, Ronald J. Gilson and
Richard W. Vague (collectively, the “Participants”) are deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies with respect to
Pershing Square’s nominees. Detailed information regarding the names, affiliations and interests of the Participants, including by
security ownership or otherwise, is available in Pershing Square’s definitive proxy statement.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements contained in this presentation that are not clearly historical
in nature or that necessarily depend on future events are forward-looking, and the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “expect,”
“estimate,” “plan,” and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are
based on current expectations of Pershing Square and currently available information. They are not guarantees of future
performance, involve certain risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future
events that may not prove to be accurate. Pershing Square does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation.
This presentation is for general informational purposes only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objective, financial
situation, suitability, or the particular need of any specific person who may receive this presentation, and should not be taken as
advice on the merits of any investment decision. The views expressed herein represent the opinions of Pershing Square, which
opinions may change at any time and are based on publicly available information with respect to Target. Certain financial
information and data used herein have been derived or obtained from filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission
(“SEC”) by Target or other companies that Pershing Square considers comparable or relevant.
1
Disclaimer (cont’d)
Pershing Square has not sought or obtained consent from any third party to the use of previously published information as proxy
soliciting material. Any such statements or information should not be viewed as indicating the support of such third party for the
views expressed herein. No warranty is made that data or information, whether derived or obtained from filings made with the
SEC or from any third party, are accurate. Neither Pershing Square nor any of its affiliates shall be responsible or have any liability
for any misinformation contained in any SEC filing or third party report. Pershing Square disclaims any obligation to update the
information contained herein.
This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. Under no circumstances is this presentation to be
used or considered an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. There is no assurance or guarantee with respect
to the prices at which any securities of Target will trade. Pershing Square and its affiliates currently hold a substantial amount of
common stock and options of Target and may in the future take such actions with respect to its investments in Target as it deems
appropriate including, without limitation, purchasing additional shares of Target common stock or related financial instruments or
selling some or all of its beneficial and economic holdings, engaging in any hedging or similar transaction with respect to such
holdings and/or otherwise changing its intention with respect to its investments in Target. Pershing Square may also change its
beneficial or economic holdings depending on additions or redemptions of capital. Pershing Square is in the business of trading —
buying and selling — securities and other financial instruments. Consequently, Pershing Square’s beneficial ownership of Target
common stock and options will vary over time depending on various factors, with or without regard to Pershing Square’s views of
Target’s business, prospects or valuation (including the market price of Target common stock), including without limitation, other
investment opportunities available to Pershing Square, concentration of positions in the portfolios managed by Pershing Square,
conditions in the securities market and general economic and industry conditions.
2
Agenda
Situation Overview
(1) Unless and until these options are exercised, the underlying shares do not carry voting rights.
5
Pershing’s Background with Target
f August 2007: Pershing Square, in its first meeting with Target management, proposes
that Target pursue a credit card partnership transaction to minimize credit risk, eliminate
funding risk, and increase Target’s valuation
f September 2007: Target announces a review of ownership alternatives for its credit
card receivables and an analysis of its capital structure
f May 2008: Target announces a sale of a 47% interest in it receivables, but retains
credit risk
MISTAKE: Board elects not to transfer credit risk in the transaction, primarily
to retain underwriting control
Target share repurchase program is principally funded with debt, despite credit risk
and funding risk remaining on its balance sheet
6
Pershing’s Background with Target (cont’d)
f May 2008: Pershing Square meets with management to discuss value creation
opportunities regarding Target’s real estate
f July 2008: Pershing Square meets with Target and Goldman Sachs to discuss real
estate transaction
f September 2008: Board raises concerns regarding Pershing Square’s real estate
proposal, primarily with respect to credit ratings impact and valuation assumptions
7
Pershing’s Background with Target (cont’d)
f Fall 2008: Pershing Square encourages Target to halt buyback program due to credit
market conditions
f October 2008: Pershing Square seeks shareholder input by publicly presenting “A TIP
for Target Shareholders”
Pershing defers discussion of the Revised Transaction until 2009 to allow Target to
focus on its business
8
Pershing’s Background with Target (cont’d)
f February 2009: Pershing Square meets with Target and Goldman Sachs to discuss the
assumptions behind the board’s decision
Pershing Square learns that the board restricted Goldman Sachs to the narrow task of
evaluating Pershing Square’s proposal, rather than fully investigating all potential
value creating alternatives for real estate
Pershing Square concludes that the Revised Transaction was not adequately
explored by the board or its advisors
f February 2009: Pershing Square requests one board seat and one additional
independent director
f March 2009: Pershing Square presents, in total, four candidates – Bill Ackman and three
independent nominees
Board did not even meet with two of them (Richard Vague, Michael Ashner)
9
Situation Overview
12
Board Lacks Sufficient Relevant Experience
Our view of
Target’s Current Board
NO Retail
Retail Business senior operating experience
NO Credit Card
Credit Card Business senior operating experience
13
Board Lacks Significant Shareholder Representation
Years on
Board Member Current Occupation (Title) Board
Mary Dillon Executive Vice President and Global Chief Marketing Officer of 2
Incumbent
Nominees
McDonald’s Corporation
Richard Kovacevich Chairman of the Board of Wells Fargo & Company 13
Solomon Trujillo CEO of Telstra Corporation Limited, an Australian 15
telecommunications company
George Tamke Partner with Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, Inc., a private investment firm 10
Calvin Darden Chairman of the Atlanta Beltline, Inc., an urban revitalization project 6
for the City of Atlanta
Anne Mulcahy CEO and Chairman of the Board of Xerox Corp., a document 12
management company
Stephen Sanger Retired. Previously, CEO and Chairman of the Board of General 13
Mills, Inc
Roxanne Austin President of Austin Investment Advisors, a private investment 7
and consulting firm
James Johnson Vice Chairman of Perseus, LLC, a merchant banking 13
private equity firm
Mary Minnick Partner of Lion Capital, a private investment firm 4
Derica Rice Senior Vice President and CFO of Eli Lilly and Company 2
15
Board’s Strategic Mistake: Credit Card
Target’s board decided not to transfer credit risk in a credit card
transaction, despite Pershing Square’s repeated requests. In 2008,
Target’s credit card operating profits fell 65% predominantly due to
increased credit risk and bad debt expense
$700 10.0%
$600
8.0%
65%
$500 drop
6.0%
$400
$322
$300 4.0%
$200 3.7%
2.0%
$100
$0 0.0%
f Notably, the board assigned its advisors the narrow task of only
evaluating Pershing Square’s TIP REIT spin-off structure
17
Governance: Faulty Nomination Process
⌧ Nomination Committee Chair Sanger would not give an explanation for the
rejection of the nominees
⌧ Nominating Committee Chair Sanger received over $1.25 million in fees and
equity compensation since 2003 from incumbent nominee Kovacevich’s
Conflict
company, Wells Fargo
⌧ Nominating Committee Chair Sanger also serves on Wells Fargo’s
compensation committee
Total
$(419.7) mm $(8.8) mm $(428.5) mm
Sales
How can we be sure that Target’s board and managers are truly focused on
creating long-term shareholder value if they sell so much stock?
(1) Based on the trailing five years prior to the announcement of Pershing Square’s nomination of the Nominees for Shareholder Choice on 3/17/2009.
(2) Includes only non-employee directors.
20
Grading the Board: Key Duties
Key Duties Pershing’s Grade Commentary
Hiring / firing Good X Strong management team
management
Assessing strategic Poor X Credit card transaction structure approved by the board
transactions was a mistake
X Board did not authorize a full review of Target’s real
estate ownership alternatives
X Board’s decision to sell Mervyn’s and Marshall Fields
took years of prodding by the investment community
Advising management N/A X We question whether this board has sufficient expertise
on existing strategies to advise management on running a retail and credit card
company
21
We believe that Target’s suboptimal
board has contributed to the company’s
material underperformance during this
recession
22
Underperformance Relative to Wal-Mart
From the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2007 to the day prior to our
announcement of our proposed slate, Target stock declined by 51%.
Over the same period, the stock of Wal-Mart, Target’s principal
competitor, appreciated 11%, a ~62 percentage point outperformance
Stock price returns
138.39
118.39
Wal-Mart
98.39
Up 11%
78.39
58.39
Target
38.39 Down
51%
Measured on a 10-year trailing basis ending on the day prior to the announcement of the Nominees for Shareholder Choice, Wal-Mart’s stock
price outperformed Target’s stock price by approximately 18%.
23
Underperformance in Same Store Sales Growth
4.0%
Wal-Mart
2.0% US
0.0%
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
(2.0%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%) Target
10.0%
0.0%
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Wal-Mart
- 10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Target
-40.0%
7.4%
Retail EBIT Margins
Wal-Mart
7.2%
US
7.0% 7.3%
2008 Retail
6.8% EBIT margin
6.6%
5.6%
2005 2006 2007 2008
Current Board
We note that Wal-Mart partnered with a financial institution for its store
credit card years ago. It does not own credit card receivables and has
none of the material risks associated with these assets
27
Is Target’s Board Too Insular?
2,000 2,000
1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
239
185
128
77 76 68 55
17 0
0 0
29
Time for Board Change
30
Introducing the Nominees for
Shareholder Choice
Michael Ashner Real Estate • Established real estate CEO and investor
• Currently manages over 20 million sq ft of commercial real estate
• Has acquired more than $12 billion of real estate in 45 states
•
(1) Consisting of 3.3% in shares of common stock and 4.5% in stock options.
32
Nominees Are Entirely Independent
f Jim Donald, Richard Vague, Michael Ashner, and Ron Gilson are independent
nominees with no commercial relationships with Target or Pershing Square
Each is a highly regarded leader in his area of expertise
f The Nominees for Shareholder Choice have only one common goal: to help
oversee the management of Target for the purpose of creating long-term value
for all stakeholders
33
Comparison of Slates
3 Entirely independent
(1) Consisting of 3.3% in shares (approximately $1bn in market value) and 4.5% in stock-settled call options (approximately $280mm in market value).
34
Food Retailing: Jim Donald
Food Retailing is A Critical Growth Initiative
36
Food: Critical Strategic Growth Initiative
37
Target: Slow to Innovate with Grocery/Superstores
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000
Did Target miss an
important opportunity
1,500 1,500 in food?
1,000 1,000
500 500
239
185
128
77 76 68 55
17 0
0 0
38
Increasing Food Could Help Sales Significantly
4.0%
Wal-Mart
2.0% US
0.0%
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
(2.0%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%) Target
(8.0%)
Source: Company filings
39
We Believe Target Needs A Retailer on its Board
Even before the recession, Target’s retail margins have been
deteriorating while Wal-Mart’s margins have remained higher and
constant, despite Wal-Mart selling a greater mix of food and other
lower margin goods
7.6%
Retail EBIT Margins
7.4%
Wal-Mart
7.2% US
7.0% 7.3%
2008 Retail
6.8% EBIT margin
6.6%
5.6%
2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Company filings 40
Why Wasn’t Target More Profitable in the Boom Times?
% of 2008 Sales
Non-
Consumables
59% 63.0%
42
Jim Donald: Food Retailing Leader
43
Compare Jim Donald with Mary Dillon
46
Pershing Square Urged Target to Transfer Credit Risk
f In May, 2008, Target sold a 47% interest in its credit card receivables
to JPMorgan Chase
Target elected, however, to retain substantially all of the credit risk and
more than half of the funding risks associated with this business
segment because of its insistence on retaining underwriting control
47
We Believe Target Made Poor Underwriting Decisions
48
The Results: Significant Profit Declines
$700 10.0%
$600
65% 8.0%
$500 drop
6.0%
$400
$322
$300 4.0%
$200 3.7%
2.0%
$100
$0 0.0%
2007A 49 2008A
Underperforming Relative to Credit Card Peers
8.0%
~360 bps spread
7.2%
7.0%
6.0%
5.9% 5.7% Credit Card
5.3%
5.0% 5.1% Competitor
4.0% Average
3.9%
(JPM, BAC, AXP,
3.0% 3.3% COF, DFS)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008
14.0%
14.4% Target
12.0%
~710 bps spread
10.0%
8.4%
8.0%
7.3% Credit Card
6.6%
6.0%
5.6% 6.1% Competitor
4.5% Average
4.0%
3.5% (JPM, BAC, AXP,
2.0% COF, DFS)
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008
52
Compare Richard Vague with Richard Kovacevich
Chairman of Wells Fargo & Company Veteran credit card industry executive
3 Entirely independent
53
Real Estate: Michael Ashner
Target: Significant Real Estate Ownership
Target owns the highest percentage of its real estate compared to
other big box retailers
100 96% 92%
90 87% 87%
% Units Owned (Buildings)1
80
68%
70
61% 58%
60
50
40 34% 34%
30
20
10
0
56
The Market Does Not Appreciate Target’s Real Estate
Pershing Square believes that there may be more efficient ways for
Target to structure its real estate business in order to highlight its
strong value. Pershing Square, however, does not currently have any
specific plans or proposals with respect to Target’s real estate
Note: Target valuation excludes the net book value of the credit card receivables and the operating profit associated with such receivables in order to better
compare Target with real estate companies which do not have credit card segments.
(1) Based on current stock price as of 05/01/09. Large cap REITs multiples are based on Wall Street consensus estimates.
(2) Based on mid-point precedent cap rate of 5.9%.
57
Questions to Ask
f Pershing Square’s past suggestions may not have been the perfect
solution, but why was Target’s board unwilling to explore other real
estate strategic alternatives?
58
Michael Ashner: Experienced Real Estate Executive
59
Compare Michael Ashner with Solomon Trujillo
60
Shareholder Value: Bill Ackman
Board Lacks Significant Shareholder Representation
63
Compare Bill Ackman with George Tamke
Canada
65
Corporate Governance:
Ron Gilson
Ron Gilson: Corporate Governance Authority
67
Target’s Board: Avoiding the Real
Issues
Target’s Board: Avoiding the Real Issues
70
“Risky Agenda”
Hasty selection of candidates by X The Nominees for Shareholder Choice are leaders
in food retailing, credit cards, real estate,
Pershing Square is inconsistent
shareholder value, and corporate governance
with a professional search
required by good corporate X The credibility, independence, experience,
governance reputation, and integrity of the Nominees for
Shareholder Choice speak for themselves
74
Really?
Michael Ashner Real Estate • Established real estate CEO and investor
• Currently manages over 20 million sq ft of commercial real estate
• Has acquired more than $12 billion of real estate in 45 states
•
(1) Consisting of 3.3% in shares of common stock and 4.5% in stock options.
75
Corporate Elections and
Shareholder Choice
Pershing Square Offers Shareholder’s a Choice
77
How We Think about Voting
Incumbent
f Which candidates have the fewest 3 Choose candidates with no conflicting
commercial ties to Target? economic interests
Nominees
vs. f Is it possible that only incumbents are 3 Choose fresh perspectives
Shareholder
the best candidates? 3 Choose the best nominees with the most
Nominees f Are any incumbents accountable for relevant experience
underperformance?
f This contest is not a change of control 3 Choose continuity and fresh perspectives
f At least 2/3rds of the incumbent 3 Choose the best nominees with the most
Maintaining directors will remain on the board relevant experience
Continuity f Board continuity is preserved
f Both slates support management
continuity
78
Vote for the Nominees for Shareholder Choice
Michael Ashner Real Estate • Established real estate CEO and investor
• Currently manages over 20 million sq ft of commercial real estate
• Has acquired more than $12 billion of real estate in 45 states
•
79
The Buck’s Rebound Begins Here
May 27, 2009
The analysis and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square")
regarding General Growth Properties, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively, “GGP” or the “Company”)
are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential or otherwise non-public information in the possession of the Company that could lead
the Company to disagree with Pershing Square’s conclusions.
The analyses provided include certain estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among
other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Company. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other
uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No
representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such
statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results
may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Pershing Square advises funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public
securities. Pershing Square owns GGP equity, total return swaps, and GGP unsecured debt. It is
possible that there will be developments in the future that cause such funds to change their
positions regarding the Company and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of
their investment in the Company.
1
Agenda
f A Brief History
2
Why Do We Like
GGP?
Ala Moana
What is GGP?
■ Over 200 regional malls ■ Provides management, ■ Develops and sells land
(>160mm sq ft) (1) / leasing and marketing for residential and
outdoor shopping centers services commercial use
■ Over 30 grocery-anchored ■ Over 60% of revenue ■ Land located near
shopping centers derived from third party Maryland / Washington
■ Office properties in Arizona, (non-GGP) malls D.C., Summerlin, NV and
Nevada and near Maryland / ■ Manages many of GGP’s Houston, TX
Washington D.C. JV malls ■ ~18,000 saleable acres
■ 1.3bn mall visits per year
■ >24,000 tenants
■ >3,700 employees (2)
________________________________________________
(1)
Includes anchor GLA and the Company’s pro rata share of JV malls.
(2) >400,000 employees including retail tenants. 4
Diverse Footprint
5
Diverse Tenant Base
GGP has over 24,000 tenants, with its largest tenant accounting for
only 2.7% of revenue as of March 31, 2009
Memo:
Market Cap
$11.8bn
4.0bn
2.4bn
1.8bn
5.0bn
3.0bn
Private
Private
Private
6.0bn
________________________________________________
6
High Quality Assets
Not Included
Other Examples:
f Faneuil Hall Marketplace
f South Street Seaport
f Ward Centers (Honolulu, HI)
________________________________________________
8
Why We Like Malls
6.0%
Apartment
4.0%
Office
Industrial
2.0%
Mall
0.0%
(2.0%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
________________________________________________ 9
Source: Green Street. Sector data represents weighted average of companies in coverage universe during the period in question.
Long Term Leases
GGP’s business is far less cyclical than that of the retail industry because its
revenues are insulated by long-term leases which are structurally senior claims
11.7%
12.0%
9.9% 10.1% 10.2%
9.7%
10.0% 9.0%
8.8%
8.1% 8.2% 8.4%
8.0%
5.9%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 After
________________________________________________
Source: GGP Q1’09 operating supplement. Expiration includes Company’s pro rata share of its unconsolidated segment.
(1) Excludes leases on anchors of 30,000 square feet or more and tenants paying percentage rent in lieu of base minimum rent. Excludes all international operations which combined represent ~1% of segment basis real
estate property NOI. Also excludes community centers. Percentage is weighted based on rent per square foot.
. 10
Embedded Growth
$70
$70.00
$67
$65
$65.00
$62
$60.00
Average:
$56 $56 $56
$55.00 $53
$50.00
$48
Embedded
$45.00
Growth
$41
Opportunity
$40.00
$37
$35.00
$30.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 After
________________________________________________
Source: GGP Q1’09 operating supplement. Expirations include company’s pro rata share of its unconsolidated segment.
(1) Data includes significant proportion of short-term leases on inline spaces that are leased for one year. Rents and recoverable common area costs related to these short-term leases are typically much lower than those
related to long-term leases. Any inferences the reader may draw regarding future rent spreads should be made in light of this difference between shrort- and long-term leases.
. 11
Inflation-Protected
________________________________________________
Source: Q1’09 operating supplement.
12
Why Do We Like GGP?
High Quality
Assets
Diversified
Geographical Footprint
Inflation-Protected High Quality
Stable Cash Flows
Business
Diverse
Tenant Mix
Embedded
Growth Opportunity
13
A Brief History
$10
$0
1954 1960 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
15
The Fall of GGP: 2008 – Current
March 28, 2008:
GGP raises $822mm in a stock
offering priced at $36 per share,
implying a market cap of ~$12bn.
$50 ~$100mm is purchased by an
affiliate of the Bucksbaum family
$30
16
The Problem
Over the past decade, GGP was a significant issuer of CMBS with
~$15bn of CMBS debt. In mid-2008, the CMBS market shut down
$150
$100 $93
$74 $78
$67
$57
$51
$47
$50
$16
$0
$0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
18
Despite the turmoil in the credit
markets, GGP’s operating
performance remains strong
Occupancy as of Q1’09
92.0%
91.2%
90.9% 90.8%
91.0% 90.5%
90.2% 90.1%
90.0%
88.9%
89.0%
88.0%
87.0%
86.0%
85.0%
83.8%
84.0%
83.0%
Glimcher General Growth Simon Property Taubman Macerich Westfield CBL Pennsylvania REIT
Group
________________________________________________
Note: Occupancy is defined as percent of mall shop and freestanding GLA leased.
(1) SPG figures are for regional malls only.
(2) CBL figures are for stabilized regional malls only (excludes new developments and redevelopments). 20
Trailing Twelve Month Cash NOI
As of Q1’09, GGP’s trailing twelve month cash NOI grew 1.4% on a year over
year basis. Adjusting for lease termination income, cash NOI grew 2.4%
TTM Cash NOI ($ in millions)
$2,750
$2,542 $2,554 $2,542 $2,524
$2,489
$2,500 $2,413
$2,328
$2,211 $2,211 $2,255
$2,250
$2,000
$1,750
$1,500
$1,250
$1,000
$750
$500
$250
$0
Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09
Cash NOI
6.6% 4.0% 5.0% 7.2% 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 9.7% 5.3% 1.4%
Growth (YoY)
$80
September 21, 1993:
Alexanders’ Plan of
$70 Reorganization is
confirmed
$60
$50
$20
May 12, 1992:
Alexanders files a voluntary
$10 petition for bankruptcy
$0
May-92 Jan-93 Oct-93 Jul-94 Apr-95 Dec-95
24
Amerco Bankruptcy
$80
February 2, 2004:
$70 Amerco’s Plan of March 15, 2004:
Reorganization is Amerco emerges
confirmed from bankruptcy
$60
June 20, 2003:
$50 Amerco files a
voluntary petition
for bankruptcy
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Jan-03 Aug-03 Mar-04 Oct-04 May-05 Dec-05
25
Why Did Amerco File for Bankruptcy?
Analyst Question: “How can there be any value left for shareholders
under your plan when in almost every bankruptcy stockholders receive
no recovery? Have creditors signed on to your plan for a full
recovery?”
Answer: “Well, quite simply, Amerco has more assets than liabilities.
Real estate appraisals showed the market value of Amerco’s
unencumbered owned real estate is $550 million higher than stated
book value. Two of four major creditor groups have agreed to our plan
and we’re working with the remaining persons to get agreement to our
plan.”
27
Bankruptcy 101
(b) (2) For the purpose of this subsection, the condition that a plan be
fair and equitable with respect to a class includes the following
requirements:
Source: U.S. Bankruptcy Code, Title 11, Chapter 11, Subchapter II. 28
Bankruptcy 101 (Cont’d)
29
GGP Reminds Us of Amerco
Typical
Bankruptcy
Year Founded 1945 1954 N/A
Reason for Filing? Extrinsic Factors Extrinsic Factors
Insolvency
Created Liquidity Crisis Created Liquidity Crisis
Shareholder
What Happened To Equity Holders?
Advocate?
f Shareholders retained 100% of post-reorg equity
f Stock appreciated 456% during bankruptcy;
increased from $4 to $105 trough-to-peak 3 Joe Shoen
f Creditors repaid in full
f Shareholders received warrants in ~30% of the
post-reorg equity 3 Mgmt
f Personal recourse management loans largely forgiven
f Shareholders retained 100% of post-reorg equity
f Stock appreciated 358% in bankruptcy;
increased from $13 to $467 trough-to-peak 3 Steve Roth
f Creditors repaid in full
f To be determined 3 Pershing
Square
________________________________________________
Note: Bankruptcies since 1999 in excess of $1bn as provided by Web BRD (Bankruptcy Research Database).
Post-filing tangible book value used as a proxy for asset value in excess of liabilities. 31
Asbestos liability bankruptcies excluded from the analysis.
Incentives of Various Constituencies in a Typical Bankruptcy
3 Preserves jobs
34
Deleveraging Analysis Assumptions
f All Debt maturities extended seven years at current interest rates
f Cash NOI projections per Green Street Same Store Mall NOI Projections (1)
“Plans that invoke the cram down power often provide for installment payments over
a period of years rather than a single payment. In such circumstances, the amount of
each installment must be calibrated to ensure that, over time, the creditor receives
disbursements whose total present value equals or exceeds that of the allowed
claim.”
– Opinion of Justice Stevens, Till v. SCS Credit Corp
What interest rate must the debtor
pay over time on its obligations to
its creditors in a cram down?
The Till Precedent
In the case of Till v. SCS Credit Corp. (2004), the U.S. Supreme
Court established a precedent upon which to adjust interest rates in
the bankruptcy context:
41
The Logic of Till
“Thus, unlike the coerced loan, presumptive contract rate, and cost of
funds approaches, the formula approach entails a straightforward,
familiar, and objective inquiry, and minimizes the need for potentially
costly additional evidentiary proceedings. Moreover, the resulting
‘prime-plus’ rate of interest depends only on the state of financial
markets, the circumstances of the bankruptcy estate, and the
characteristics of the loan, not on the creditor’s circumstances or its
prior interactions with the debtor. For these reasons, the prime-plus
rate best comports with the purposes of the Bankruptcy Code.”
Since the Supreme Court ruling in 2004, Till has been applied in
numerous bankruptcy proceedings
________________________________________________
43
In re Prussia Associates
The Court ruled that the appropriate mortgage rate should be set at
Prime + 1.5% (7.25%), despite the Creditor’s contention that the
“market rate” was 9.72%
“The prime rate as of today is 5.75%. This rate, therefore, will be the applicable base We note that
rate. The risk premium, per Till, will normally fluctuate between 1% and 3%. The GGP is a
appropriate size of the adjustment, per Till, will depend on factors such as the higher quality,
circumstances of the estate, the nature of the security and the duration and lower risk
feasibility of the reorganization plan. The creditor bears the burden of proof on business than
this issue. In this instance, [the Creditor] has raised certain legitimate questions as to Prussia
the feasibility of the Debtor’s plan; however it has done little to overcome the evidence Associates,
which owns
which indicates both that the Debtor’s operations are improving apace, and that the
one hotel, the
value of Fremont’s collateral is appreciating steadily. The Court thus views the risks Valley Forge
attendant to the proposed loan as neither negligible nor extreme. Based upon this, the Hilton
Court will require the addition of a 1.5% risk premium to the aforesaid prime rate for
the recast [Creditor] loan.”
Opinion of Judge Raslavich
United States Bankruptcy Court, E.D. Pennsylvania
In re Prussia Associates
45 April 5, 2005
What Factors Will the Court Consider in Determining the
Appropriate Risk Adjustment Spread for GGP?
Based on these precedents, we believe the court could confirm a plan at a rate
that is lower than GGP’s current weighted average interest rate
Nature of the
3 Oversecured Prime-plus
3 Equivalent in value to the present value
Security of the creditors’ claim 0.5% Æ 1.0%
Footnote 18:
47
What If GGP’s Debt Were Re-Priced
to Till-Mandated Rates?
Illustrative Deleveraging Analysis: Prime [3.25%] +
0.75% for Secured; Prime + 1.50% for Unsecured
A plan that sets GGP’s secured debt and unsecured debt to Prime + 0.75% and
Prime + 1.50%, respectively, would allow for substantial deleveraging and
further increase the probability of a highly successful reorganization
(US$ in millions, except per unit data) Seven Year Period
2008a 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e Total
3 GGP is not the exception – many REITs have the same problem
________________________________________________
3 Nearly all REITs and other leveraged real estate owners will
likely suffer the same fate if GGP is forced to liquidate
50
Valuation
Note that ~20% of Simon’s GLA relates to the Mills portfolio. These
properties have lower occupancy and rent per square foot than traditional
regional malls and deserve a lower valuation than typical GGP assets
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
55
Value of GGP REIT
Simon’s cap rate suggests the value of GGP REIT, not including
GGMI and MPC, is somewhere between $9 and $22 per share.
Assuming that (i) GGP’s ‘A’ caliber assets deserve a 7.0% cap rate and
(ii) 75% of GGP’s NOI is derived from ‘A’ assets, GGP’s ‘A’ assets alone
are worth more than its liabilities
________________________________________________
(1) See page 56 for details.
57
Historical Mall Cap Rates
Since 1986, Malls have traded at an average cap rate of 7.6%, and this
average was achieved in much higher long-term interest rate markets
Historical Cap Rate Across Various Property Types
10.0%
9.0%
8.0% Mall
Average:
7.0%
7.6%
6.0% Apartment
Office
Industrial
Mall
5.0%
4.0%
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
________________________________________________ 58
Source: Green Street. Cap rates are weighted by (% NOI from primary property type times market cap). Data from January, 1986 through February, 2009.
Value of GGMI
Plus: Estimated Proceeds from Sale of Bridgeland, net (3) 87 87 This segment generated
Less: Present Value of Deferred Tax Liability (4) - (250) ~$150mm of net cash
Net Value of MPC $87 $2,148 flow in 2005 and
Per Share $0.27 $6.72 ~$190mm in 2006
________________________________________________
Note: Does not reflect impact of Contingent Stock Agreement, which could, in certain circumstances, create meaningful dilution.
(1) Represents management’s valuation of the gross assets as of 12/31/07. Source: page 22 of Q3’08 operating supplement.
(2) Low case trues up 3/31/09 net book value of Bridgeland as a % of management’s 12/31/07 gross value estimate. High case represents Bridgeland net book value as of 3/31/09.
(3) Assumes Bridgeland is divested for $90mm, net of 3% transaction fees.
(4) Pershing Square estimate. The present value of the tax liability will depend on the operating performance of the segment.
60
Hidden Asset Value: Las Vegas
62
Hidden Asset Value: Park West
In 2007, GGP spent $105mm developing its Park West property in Peoria, AZ.
Based on the recent photograph below, we estimate that this property has the
potential to generate substantially more NOI. There are likely other properties
like Park West that are currently under-earning in GGP’s portfolio
63
Hidden Asset Value: Non-Recourse Financing
64
GGP’s Assets are Greater than its Liabilities
65
What’s the Downside?
f No value assigned to hidden 100.0% 22.79 16.21 10.40 5.24 1.19 (3.53) No
________________________________________________
Note: Current implied market cap based on $1.19 stock price as of 5/26/09.
66
Conclusion
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital
markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of
such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may
vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates own investments in real estate investment trust
including long investments (e.g., General Growth Properties, Inc.) as well as short investments (e.g., Realty
Income Corporation). With respect to short investments, such investments may include, without limitation,
credit-default swaps, equity put options and short sales of common stock.
Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling – securities and
financial instruments. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing Square
to change its position regarding the companies discussed in this presentation. Pershing Square may buy,
sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment regarding such companies for any or no reason.
Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here
including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
1
We Are Short Realty Income
Capitalization:
Enterprise value: $4.3 billion
Tenants:
Typically leased to regional or local retailers
Many large tenants have junk credit ratings
Many smaller tenants are unrated and compete in struggling sectors of the
retail industry
Average remaining lease term is ~11.6 years
Occupancy rate is currently very high at 97%
We believe a decline in occupancy is likely as tenant quality deteriorates…
Source: 6/30/09 10-Q.
3
Realty Income: Specialty-Use Properties
(1)
Fully diluted shares 105 EV / EBITDA 14.6x
Market Value of Equity $2,668
Price / Recurring FFO 14.1x
Net Debt and Preferred $1,645 Yield 7.1%
1) Based on the treasury stock method using all options outstanding. Includes all unvested restricted stock.
2) 2009E Cash NOI ($316mm) is based on estimates for recurring NOI adjusted for straight line rents.
3) Recurring AFFO = Estimated recurring net income + D&A –recurring capital expenditures – straight line rent adjustment.
4) 2009E dividend yield annualized for current monthly dividend.
5
The “Monthly Dividend Company”
6
Realty Income’s stated business purpose
is to maintain and grow its monthly
dividend…
7
The First 9 Pages of the Annual Report…
8
First 9 Pages of the Annual Report (Cont’d)…
9
First 9 Pages of the Annual Report (Cont’d)…
10
Short Thesis:
Investment Highlights
Short Thesis: Investment Highlights
Properties often have limited alternative use and high re-leasing risk
Unlike prime shopping center locations, Realty Income’s standalone locations
generally lack anchor tenants to drive traffic and assist in re-leasing
At a 9.5% Cap Rate and a 7.5% decline in NOI, Realty Income would
have a stock price of ~$14 (down ~46%)
13
Tenants: O Does Not Disclose Its Tenants
Unlike many other REITs, Realty Income does not disclose its tenants
Simon Property Group, for example, discloses tenants representing as little
as 0.2% of its minimum rental income
Analysts and investors have asked for more tenant disclosure, but
the Company has refused
QUESTION: Why?
ANSWER: We believe that O’s tenant quality is poor and the
company is concerned about the impact of transparency on its
stock price
14
Tenants: O Does Not Disclose Its Tenants
Analyst: “I was just wondering if the RV Analyst: “The other thing is Rite Aid
dealer, Camping World, that's at that 1.2 announced that they're seeking rent relief on
times, 1.22 times [EBITDAR-to-rent 500 stores earlier this quarter -- or I guess in
coverage] at the low end, if they're one of the second quarter. Of the 24 Rite Aids that
the ones that only discloses annually? I was are in your portfolio, do you have any
just surprised to see that that 1.22 didn't exposure? I mean it's obviously not their
move.” whole -- their entire store base. It's just a
fraction of their system. I'm just wondering if
Company Representative: “Right. We do you have any exposure to that.”
not discuss the individual business of
tenants, so I wouldn't comment to that.” Company Representative: “Yes, it's not our
policy to comment on our individual tenants
Analyst: “Okay.” and what they're doing. We could sit here all
day. We have 118 tenants. And a lot of
Company Representative: “And we never times on these calls, people get mentioned
referred to them as that tenant.” who aren't our tenants, so that's the policy
15
we'll maintain.”
Tenants: Discretionary Consumer Risk
Credit
Tenant Description Rating Commentary
Buffets Casual dining / steak-buffet Junk: Caa1 Adj. Debt / EBITDAR: 6.5x (1)
(owns Ryan’s Grill restaurants
Emerged from bankruptcy in 2009
Buffet Bakery)
Pantry Regional convenience store Junk: B+ Adj. Debt / EBITDAR: 5.0x (2)
operator (Southeast US)
Estimated Bonds trade at 9.75% yield
~20% of
La Petite Academy Day care operator Junk: B- Adj. Debt/ EBITDAR: 7.4x (3)
Realty (Learning Care Group) Morgan Stanley
Income’s Private Equity LBO
revenues (6)
Kerasotes Showplace Movie theatre chain Junk: B- Adj. Debt/ EBITDAR: 5.9x (4)
Theatres
Knowledge Learning Day care operator Junk: B1 Adj. Debt/ EBITDAR: 4.7x (5)
Corp. (Children’s World)
Sources for tenants: Compiled using Wall Street Research, O’s filings, O’s website, various press reports and O’s earnings conference calls.
1) Source: Moody’s, April 2009. Based on Moody’s estimates post emergence from bankruptcy.
2) Source: Company filings, LTM ended June 2009. Capitalized operating rents calculated at 8x rent expense.
3) Based on Learning Care Group (parent company) S&P corporate ratings, leverage estimate for LTM ended June 2009.
4) Source: S&P, leverage estimate for LTM ended June 2009.
5) Source: Moody’s, leverage estimate for LTM ended June 2009.
6) Based on Citi sell-side report entitled, “Realty Income Corp (O): Non-Investment Grade Tenant Credit Weakness and Margin Pressure Add Risk,” dated 8/1/08.
17
Other Major Tenants Are Also a Major Concern…
Other major tenants are mostly regional discretionary retailers, including
several 2005-2007 vintage LBOs. Some tenants have already filed Chapter
11 and we believe many could be forced to liquidate
Listed in no particular order
Realty
Friendly’s Casual dining / ice Sun Capital LBO (2007)
Income cream distributor
major Rite Aid Drug store chain Adj. Debt/ EBITDAR: 9.6x
tenants(1) Bonds trade between 10 - 13%+ yield
19
Balance Sheet Doubled from 1/1/05 – 12/31/07
During the peak of the real estate and credit bubbles, Realty Income’s
assets more than doubled from $1.4bn to $3.1bn as the company
became a financing source for LBOs and corporate M&A
Realty Income Total Assets
$3,500
$3.1
bn
ub /07
$3,000
it B 2/31
ble
Realty Income provided
Cr 0 5 – 1 financing for the following LBOs:
$2,500 ed
/
1/1
Year Financing
Amount Transaction LBO Firm
$2,000 2006 $350mm $860mm LBO Caxton-
of Ryan’s Iseman
$1.4 Restaurants Capital
$1,500 bn (acquired by (owner of
Buffets) Buffets)
$1,000
2007 Undisclosed ~$340mm Sun Capital
amount LBO of
Friendly’s
$500
Sale/LB for 160 Restaurants
restaurants
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: Realty Income entered into a sale/leaseback transaction with
Friendly’s in October 2007, shortly after the August 2007 LBO of
20 Friendly’s by Sun Capital.
Dividend Coverage is Minimal
Minimal room
for error
Decline in Recurring 2009E NOI (1)
1) Calculation of AFFO assumes $21mm of G&A expenses, $3mm of capex and straight line rent adjustments, and $86mm of interest expense.
2) Recurring AFFO = Recurring Net Income + D&A – Cap Ex – straight line rent adjustment.
21
What Could Happen If…?
Despite having no debt maturities until 2013, Realty Income could face
significant problems if its tenants continue to go bankrupt
Even a small decline in NOI could prevent the company from funding
its current dividend from operating cash flow
Liquidity from O’s current revolver may be at risk if there are sufficient
asset writedowns or sufficient reductions in FFO(1) (2)
Asset writedowns could be caused by tenant bankruptcies and / or declines
in real estate values
Current cash on hand represents only about 2.5 months of dividends
O may need to reduce its cash dividend which we expect would adversely
impact its stock price
Many retail shareholders own the stock for its monthly dividend
We believe that O’s stock price depends on its ability to maintain its
monthly dividend
1) Dividends and Other Restricted Payments covenant: Per the Credit Agreement (5/15/08), quarterly dividends and share repurchases may not exceed 95% of FFO plus preferred
dividends for each of the trailing four quarters.
2) Minimum Tangible Net Worth covenant: Per the Credit Agreement (5/15/08), we estimate that O must maintain a Tangible Net Worth of ~$1.3bn and that Tangible Net Worth is
currently ~$1.6bn (as of 6/30/09) implying that O has an approximate $0.3bn cushion under that credit facility. O’s Net PPE is approximately $2.8bn.
22
O’s Business Model and its Stock Price
23
Equity Offerings: “Ceiling on Valuation”
Since 2005, Realty Income has issued equity to the public five times
at an average price of $25 and at ranges from $23.79 - $26.82
Average
price of
equity
offerings:
$25.15
Current asking prices for some Ryan’s restaurants (one of O’s largest tenants)
is an 11% cap rate. In comparison, Realty Income trades at a 7.3% cap rate
City State Bldg Size(sq ft) Land Size Listing Price Price/ Bldg Sq Ft
Waterford CT 6,054 1 Acre $299,000 $49
Decatur GA 6,400 48,351 $700,000 $109
Jonesboro GA 4,631 39,204 $440,000 $95
Snellville GA 6,365 1.3 Acres $650,000 $102
Beverly MA 4,335 23,990 $460,000 $106
Hattiesburg MS 4,625 22,000 $500,000 $108
Glassboro NJ 4,982 105,850 $990,000 $199 Not one
Lawrenceville
Desoto
NJ
TX
4,739
14,588
96,703
61,021
$990,000
$850,000
$209
$58
property
Garland TX 8,724 56,327 $925,000 $106 is offered
Houston TX 7,380 20,892 $500,000 $68
Sterling VA 5,130 0.75 Acres $995,000 $194
for sale at
Kennewick WA 7,243 31,947 $1,200,000 $166 or above
West Allis WI 4,860 0.25 Acres $250,000 $51
Temecula CA 6,206 34,788 $870,000 $140
O’s
Farmington Hills MI 8,880 71,743 $735,000 $83 valuation
Indianapolis IN 9,166 58,065 $900,000 $98
Sugarland TX 6,182 33,149 $925,000 $150
Lebanon PA 6,312 23,225 $600,000 $95
“In talking about cap rates -- I mentioned this last quarter, but I think it really is worthwhile
saying -- and that is if you look back on the 40 years that we've been doing this and kind of
follow cap rates, from 2005 to 2008, we were buying kind of in the 8.4% to 8.7% cap rate
range, and in those years bought about $1.5 billion worth of property. And I'd probably
estimate that we were 75 to 100 basis points in cap rate above where the one-off market was,
which was really a function of buying in bulk and you get a better price and a better cap rate.”
“From 2003 to 2004, the caps were around 9.5, and if you go back to when we went
public in '94 and take it to 2003, I went back and looked, and the cap rates from during
that period were always between 10 and 11. And then going back and looking at
transactions going all the way back before '94, cap rates were pretty much always up
11% or so.”
“So I really think that kind of the 7 and 8 caps that you saw at retail and even some of the 9
caps on the institutional transaction, like a lot of assets in many different areas, were a
function of the abundant and cheap financing that was out there, and it shouldn't be too
surprising to see cap rates moving up again.”
--Tom Lewis,
Realty Income, CEO
Q2 2009 Conference Call
27
If private market cap rates today for
Realty Income-type properties are
between 10% - 11%, then why should
Realty Income trade at a 7.3% cap rate?
28
RE Index Versus Realty Income Since 1/1/2008
The top three executives (CEO, COO, CFO) own less than
1% of the company despite having an average tenure at the
company of 18 years
CEO, COO and CFO have not made an open market stock
purchase in over six years
31
“Short” Sensitivity Analysis
Cap rate
9.0% $17 $16 $15 $14 $14
drops only 5% to 9.5% $15 $14 $14 $13 $12
10.0% $14 $13 $12 $11 $11
10% and O’s cap rate 10.5% $12 $12 $11 $10 $9
increases to 9.5% to 11.0% $11 $10 $10 $9 $8
10.5%, Realty
Stock price return (from $25) at various cap rates and
Income’s stock price decline rates in 2009E Cash NOI
could decline ~43% Decline in 2009E Cash NOI
to ~60% from recent -2.5% -5.0% -7.5% -10.0% -12.5%
prices 8.5% -26% -29% -33% -36% -40%
9.0% -33% -37% -40% -43% -46%
Cap rate
We believe that Realty Income’s current shareholders are not being sufficiently
compensated for the company’s tenant risk
Shareholders and investors should demand transparency from O’s management
regarding its tenants
We believe that the SEC should require Reality Income to disclose its tenants
because without this information it is nearly impossible to value the company and
its associated risks
At $25 and a 7.3% cap rate, we believe there is little downside to the short
~40% premium to current private market valuations
Company has historically issued stock at these levels
“Ceiling on valuation”
34
Prisons’ Dilemma
October 20, 2009
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead
these companies to disagree with Pershing Square’s conclusions. This presentation and the information
contained herein is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital
markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of
such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may
vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates have invested in common stock and total return swaps
on Corrections Corporation of America (“CXW”). Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of
trading – buying and selling – securities and financial instruments. It is possible that there will be
developments in the future that cause Pershing Square to change its position regarding CXW. Pershing
Square may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in CXW for any reason. Pershing
Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here
including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
Corrections Corporation of America
f Capitalization:
Enterprise value: $4.1 billion
3
Strong National Footprint
________________________________________________
Other States
fAlaska
fArizona
fHawaii
fKentucky
fMinnesota
fOklahoma
fVermont
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistic: Prison Inmates at Midyear 2008, CXW investor presentation, Aug. 2009.
7
Supply / Demand Imbalance
________________________________________________
8
Competitive Advantage: State vs. Private
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
(1) Source: 2007 Pew Charitable Trusts report – “Public Safety, Public Spending – Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007 – 2011.” Annual Operating
Cost per Inmate for the year 2005. States vary widely; for instance, California had a $34k annual operating cost per inmate in 2005.
10
Increasing Market Penetration
11
Historical Prison Population Growth
12
Prison Populations Expected to Rise
13
Federal Demand Drives Growth
Federal demand alone could fill CXW’s ~12,000 bed inventory over
the coming years
“Of the 19 state customers that CCA does business with, we are currently
estimating that those states will have an incremental growth that will be
twice as much as their funded plan capacity by 2013.”
– Damon Hininger, CEO, Q1 Earnings Call
15
Supply / Demand Imbalance Drives Growth
If private prisons can capture just 25% of the incremental growth in the
U.S. inmate population, CXW should achieve >98% occupancy in its Owned
& Managed business by 2012. Private prison operators captured 49% of the
growth in 2007 as state budget pressures have postponed new prison
construction
(Beds in thousands) Potential Growth Opportunity
2004a 2005a 2006a 2007a 2008a 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
Market Analysis
We estimate
Total Inmate Population (MM) (1) 1,546 1,580 1,627 1,655 1,677 1,701 1,726 1,760 1,795
Growth 2.1% 2.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0%
CXW’s owned
beds represent
Private Inmate Pop'n (000s) (2) 107 114 126 139 147 153 159 168 177
Growth 5.0% 6.8% 10.7% 10.7% 5.6% 4.1% 4.2% 5.3% 5.2% >40% of the
% Private 6.9% 7.2% 7.7% 8.4% 8.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.5% 9.8% industry’s spare
Incremental Private Inmates capacity
Incremental Total Inmates 32 33 48 27 22 24 26 34 35
Private Capture Rate (2) 16.1% 21.6% 25.5% 49.1% 35.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Incremental Private Inmates 5 7 12 13 8 6 6 8 9
CXW Capture Rate (Owned only) 27.7% 18.5% 33.6% 33.4% 43.6% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Incremental CXW Beds (Owned) 1.4 1.3 4.1 4.5 3.4 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.5
Occupancy (Owned) 90.3% 88.3% 93.9% 98.6% 94.5% 87.5% 89.8% 93.2% 98.7% Potential
Memo: Pershing Square Forecast upside to our
Incremental CXW Beds (Owned) 1.4 1.3 4.1 4.5 3.4 1.9 2.0 3.3 2.5 estimates
Occupancy (Owned) 90.3% 88.3% 93.9% 98.6% 94.5% 86.6% 88.0% 91.5% 95.5%
(1) Source ('04-'07): Bureau of Justice Statistics and Office of Detention Trustee Statistics. Excludes juvenile, jail and ICE population.
Source ('08-'12): In 2007, Pew Charitable Trust estimated there will be an incremental 153,000 prisoners by YE 2011.
This analysis assumes an incremental 140,000 prisoners by YE 2012.
(2) Source ('04-'07): Bureau of Justice Statistics and Office of Detention Trustee Statistics. Excludes juvenile, jail and ICE population.
Assumes 35% private capture rate in 2008 and 25% private capture rate going forward.
16
Near-Term Catalysts: Post-Recession Growth
________________________________________________
Source: CXW Q2’09 financial supplement. See page 33 of the CXW investor presentation for details of the assumptions used to derive management’s ~$100mm estimate.
(1) The vast majority of CXW’s fixed expense is labor. Also includes utilities, property taxes, insurance, repairs & maintenance and other similar expenses.
(2) Includes legal, medical, food, welfare and other similar expenses.
(3) This analysis is illustrative. We note that there will be some amount of incremental fixed expense
19 associated with the ramp-up of CXW’s inventory as staffing requirements increase with occupancy.
We further note that some of the beds in CXW’s inventory have not yet been developed, and therefore do not yet have associated fixed expenses.
Near-Term Catalysts: Stock Buyback
Quarter Ended,
Q108a Q208a Q308a Q408a Q109a Q209a Q309e Q409e
WASO 126.1 126.5 126.5 126.1 120.6 115.7 117.3 117.3
Growth (YoY) (4.4%) (8.6%) (7.3%) (7.0%)
20
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
$2.00
$1.73
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.40
$1.20 $1.06
$1.20
$1.00 $0.84 $1.07
$0.80 $0.64
$0.59 $0.86
$0.60
$0.61
$0.40 $0.53
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
2003a 2004a 2005a 2006a 2007a 2008a
As of Q2’09, CXW’s interest coverage ratio was 5.4x. Its next debt
maturity is not until 2012. Its cash interest expense is less than 6%,
and more than 80% of its debt is fixed rate
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
Board and management own more than 6 million shares of CXW (1)
Total Beneficial
Name of Beneficial Owner Title Ownership (1)
William F. Andrews Director 525,523
John D. Ferguson Chairman 1,711,455
Donna M. Alvarado Director 50,916
Lucius E. Burch, III Director 1,282,934
John D. Correnti Director 83,124
Dennis W. DeConcini Director 5,500
John R. Horne Director 100,166
C. Michael Jacobi Director 97,700
Thurgood Marshall, Jr. Director 72,998
Charles L. Overby Director 47,284
John R. Prann, Jr. Director 87,232
Joseph V. Russell Director 352,410
Henri L. Wedell Director 1,377,920
Damon Hininger Chief Executive Officer 20,489
Todd J. Mullenger Chief Financial Officer 134,072
G.A. Puryear, IV General Counsel 159,295
Richard P. Seiter Chief Corrections Officer 144,742
William K. Rusak (2) Chief of Human Resources 91,984
All Directors & Exexutive Officers as a Group 6,453,308
Percent of Common Stock Beneficially Owned (3) 5.4%
________________________________________________
CXW trades for ~13x free cash flow per share or at an implied cap
rate of 12.2%
(US$ in mm, except per share data)
Capitalization Summary Financials
Share Price $24.50 2008a 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
FDSO 117 Avg Occupied Beds (owned only) 51,005 52,868 54,889 58,218 60,763
Market Cap $2,873 Avg Total Beds (owned only) 53,990 61,043 62,340 63,626 63,626
Occupancy (owned only) 94.5% 86.6% 88.0% 91.5% 95.5%
Plus: Debt 1,212
Revenue $1,599 $1,650 $1,723 $1,828 $1,932
Less: Cash & Equivalents (28) Growth 8.1% 3.2% 4.4% 6.1% 5.7%
TEV $4,057
NOI (owned only) (2) 431 445 467 514 571
Margin 27.0% 27.0% 27.1% 28.1% 29.6%
$30 $95,000
$24.50
$25 $85,000
$20 $75,000
$15 $65,000
$10 $55,000
$5 $45,000
$0 $35,000
Jan-07 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Oct-09
Stock TEV / Bed
Price
Owned & Managed Available Beds
27
Opportunity for Multiple Expansion
CXW’s earnings quality has improved since 2007 as its Owned & Managed
segment now accounts for more than 90% of Facility EBITDA
TEV / Forward EBITDA
14x
Pre-Lehman
Average:
11.5x
11x
9.8x
8x
5x
Jan-07 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Oct-09
Owned & Managed as % of Facility EBITDA (TTM)
29
Health Care REITs are the Best Comp
Typical
(1)
Health Care REIT
Primary Tenant Government Government
PropCo
Rental Revenue $337 $362 $386
NOI $337 $362 $386
Margin 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Less: Cash expenses (10) (10) (10)
AFFO 327 352 376
Margin 97.0% 97.2% 97.4%
31
Illustrative Sum-Of-The-Parts Valuation (Cont’d)
($ in millions)
OpCo Valuation:
2012e PF EBITDA $132 $132
Multiple 8.0x 8.0x
OpCo Value $1,057 $1,057
PropCo Valuation:
2012e NOI $386 $386
Cap Rate 8.0% 6.0%
PropCo Value $4,822 $6,429
Memo: Dividend yield 7.8% 5.8%
Total Value $5,878 $7,485
Per Share $40 $54
32
CXW used to be a REIT…
f Upon its formation, CCA Prison Realty Trust purchased 9 correctional facilities from Old
CCA for $308mm. It then leased the facilities to Old CCA pursuant to long-term, non-
cancellable triple-net leases with built-in rent escalators
f Within five months of its IPO, CCA Prison Realty Trust used the remaining proceeds from
its IPO and its revolver to purchase three additional facilities from Old CCA
By December-97, CCA Prison Realty Trust’s stock had moved up to the $40s,
trading at a ~5% cap rate and a ~4% dividend yield
33
CXW used to be a REIT… (Cont’d)
On January 1, 1999, Old CCA and CCA Prison Realty Trust merged to form
an even larger REIT, “New Prison Realty.” In order for New Prison Realty to
qualify as a REIT, it had to spin off its management business (“OpCo”)
f Before the new prisons had been completed and could generate revenue, OpCo’s
$60
operating fundamentals began to decline and occupancy fell
$50
f OpCo struggled to maintain profitability and rental payments to New Prison Realty
soon had to be deferred
$40
f As a result, New Prison Realty’s stock price declined precipitously, limiting its ability to
$30 raise liquidity. This was further exacerbated by a shareholder lawsuit stemming from
the fall in the stock price
$20
f By the Summer of 2000, CXW was on the verge of default and had to raise dilutive
$10 capital to restructure and avoid bankruptcy
$0
34
Jan-99 Feb-01 Mar-03 May-05 Jun-07 Jul-09
Why Did New Prison Realty Fail?
New Prison Realty did not fail because it was a REIT, it failed
because:
________________________________________________
(1) “The rates on the Operating Company leases were set with the intention that the public stockholders of New Prison Realty would receive as much of the benefit as possible from owning and
operating the correctional and detention facilities…. In fact, the Operating Company lease rates were set so that Operating Company was projected to lose money for the first several years of its
existence.” Source: CXW 2002 10-K.
35
NOLs
CXW has not been a large taxpayer for the last eight years because
of substantial NOLs that are now exhausted
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Going forward,
2001a 2002a 2003a 2004a 2005a 2006a 2007a 2008a 2009e 2010e CXW expects
to be a 38%
Cash Tax Rate 9.4% 2.4% 3.4% 20.4% 8.2% 24.1% 22.5% 37.6% 38.0% cash tax payer
36
Owned vs. Managed
30%
25.7% 26.0%
25%
19.7% 19.9%
20% 18.4%
15% 14.1%
11.9%
10.6% 10.1%
9.3%
10%
5%
0%
2001a 2002a 2003a 2004a 2005a 2006a 2007a 2008a 2009e 2010e
37
Management Gets It
“The other thing I would point out is before we'd even sell stock, that there's a lot
of value in these assets. I hear people talking to me about regional malls selling
at six cap rates or parking garages selling at five cap rates or 20 times cash flow
and you think about -- or highways selling at 50 times cash flow, you think about
prisons as infrastructure or some type of real estate asset, I think these could be
even sold and harvested in some fashion to avoid selling stock in the future. So
there are a number of things that we could do to finance our growth, but just with
respect to cash flow and leverage, we could go quite a ways.”
38
Conclusions
Market Leader /
Competitive Advantage
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead
these companies to disagree with Pershing Square’s conclusions. This presentation and the information
contained herein is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital
markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of
such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may
vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates have invested in long and short positions of certain mall
REITs, including long positions in General Growth Properties Inc. Pershing Square manages funds that are in
the business of actively trading – buying and selling – securities and financial instruments. Pershing Square
may currently or in the future change its position regarding any of the securities it owns. Pershing Square
reserves the right to buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in any company for any
reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses
contained here including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
________________________________________________
* Warren E. Buffett, “Buy American. I am,” New York Times (10/16/08). 1
At the Beginning of 2009, The World was a Very Different
Place for Mall REITs
2
The U.S. Economy has Recovered
The Recession is “Very Likely Over”
4.0%
2.8%
2.0% 1.5%
0.0%
(0.7%)
(2.0%)
(2.7%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%) (5.4%)
(6.4%)
(8.0%)
Q2’08 Q3’08 Q4’08 Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09
________________________________________________
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (11/24/09). 4
Unemployment Down in November
10.5%
10.2%
10.0%
10.0%
9.8%
9.7%
9.5% 9.4%
9.0%
8.5%
July August September October November
________________________________________________
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (12/4/09). 5
Housing Market Showing Signs of Recovery
________________________________________________
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital (November 2009). 6
The U.S. Consumer is Beginning to
Bounce Back
Consumer Confidence Improving
80.0
74.9
75.0
70.5
70.0
67.5
61.1
60.2
60.0 59.2
55.0
50.0
Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sept-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sept-Nov
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
________________________________________________
Source: University of Michigan / Bloomberg. Most recent data point available as of 11/25/09. 8
The Credit Markets Have Improved
Financial Markets Normalizing
________________________________________________
Source: FRB, FDIC, Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital (November 2009). 10
Stock Market has Rebounded
1100 1,106
1000
900
800
700
600
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ (as of 12/4/09). 11
REIT Stocks have Rebounded
50
45 $45
40
35
30
25
20
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ (as of 12/4/09). 12
REIT CDS Spreads Tightening
________________________________________________
Source: Credit Suisse equity research (December 4, 2009). 13
REIT Cost of Debt Improving
Over the past three months, REITs have been able to issue
large amounts of low-cost debt
________________________________________________
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (December 2, 2009). Includes AMB Property Corp (AMB), ProLogis
(PLD), Boston Properties (BXP), DDR Corp (DDR), Vornado (VNO), Brandywine Realty (BDN), Kimco (KIM),
Avalonbay (AVB), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE), Ventas (VTR) and Simon Property Group (SPG).
“Based on secondary market trading, if Simon were to issue debt today, an issuance
of five year unsecured debt could potentially be completed at a cost of 5% or less”
– Credit Suisse Equity Research, December 4, 2009
14
Mall REIT Balance Sheets Have
Strengthened
REITs Have Raised over $18bn of Equity YTD
________________________________________________
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (December 2, 2009).
16
Mall REITs have Delevered
Mall REIT Leverage Ratio (total liabilities net of cash as a % of current value of assets) (1)
62.5%
60.0%
59.1%
57.3%
57.5% 57.0% 56.9%
56.7%
54.9%
55.0%
53.7%
52.2%
52.5%
50.0%
47.5%
May June July August September October November December
________________________________________________
Source: Green Street Real Estate Securities Monthly.
(1) Total liabilities (including preferred shares) net of cash as a % of current value of assets. Mall average includes CBL, GGP, Glimcher, Macerich, PREIT, Simon, Tanger, Taubman and Westfield.
17
Cap Rates Have Declined
Substantially
Mall REIT Cap Rates Have Declined and Should Decline
Further Based on Historical Precedent
Although mall REIT cap rates have come in from their double-digit
highs, they still trade at a wide spread to corporate Baa yields
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.8%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
6.3%
5.5%
5.0%
9
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 6
Ja 5
M 9
M 8
M 7
M 6
M 5
Se 8
Se 9
Se 7
Se 6
Se 5
9
7
6
5
N 9
N 8
N 7
N 6
N 5
M 9
M 7
M 8
M 6
M 5
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
l-0
l-0
l-0
l-0
l-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
ov
ov
ov
ov
ov
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ja
________________________________________________
Source: Green Street (as of November 2009).
19
Store Closure Fears were Overblown
White Knights
Selected
Bankruptcies White Knight Comments
Eddie Bauer Golden Gate f In July, CCMP bid $202mm for Eddie Bauer w/ plan to liquidate 121 of 371 stores
Jun-09 Aug-09 f In August, Golden Gate beat out CCMP w/ $286mm bid
f Golden Gate plans to keep “the substantial majority” of the company’s stores open
Ritz Camera David Ritz f David Ritz and RCI Acquisition LLC beat out three liquidators at auction
Feb-09 Jul-09 f Ritz will attempt to keep all the remaining 375 stores open, though some closures still expected
Filene’s Vornado / Syms f In May, Crown Acquisition bid $22mm for Filene’s w/ plan to liquidate 8 stores
May-09 Jun-09 f In June, a joint venture formed by Syms and Vornado beat out Crown w/ a $62.4mm bid
f Vornado / Syms plan to operate Filene’s remaining 22 outlets and re-open a location in Boston
J. Jill Golden Gate f At the beginning of 2009, Talbots had been considering winding down its J. Jill concept
Out of court Jun-09 f In June, Golden Gate acquired the J. Jill retail chain for $75mm
f Golden Gate plans to keep open 204 of the existing 279 locations open
21
Liquidations Could Be Good For Malls
Selected Strategic
Liquidations Acquirer(s) Comments
Gottschalks Forever 21 f Gottschalks auctioned to liquidation company, Great American Group
Jan-09 Jun-09 f 13 retail spaces sold to Forever 21 on June 10, 2009
Joe’s Sports Dick’s Sporting f Joe’s Sports sold to liquidator Gordon Brothers for $61mm
Mar-09 Goods f 6 retail spaces sold to Dick’s Sporting Goods in July, which will be opened by year-end
Jul-09
Mervyn’s Forever 21 / Kohls f In December, Kohls and Forever 21 acquired 46 Mervyn’s leases for $6.25mm
Jul-08 Dec-08 f Forever 21 primarily focused on Mervyn’s mall-based locations
f Speculation that Forever 21 has acquired additional Mervyn’s spaces since December
22
Many Mall-Based Tenants Expanded in 2009
(1)
Stores
(2) (3)
Company Concept BOY Current
Foot Locker CCS - 2
Gamestop Gamestop U.S. 4,331 4,425
Genesco Journeys 1,012 1,022
Johnston & Murphy 157 162
GNC GNC N.A. (excl franchise) 2,774 2,806
Guess Guess N.A. 425 433
Gymboree Gymboree U.S. 583 594
Crazy 8 38 62
Janie & Jack 115 120
H&M H&M USA 169 175
hhgregg hhgregg 108 128
J Crew J Crew (excl outlets) 211 243
Crewcuts 6 9
Madewell 12 17
JC Penney JC Penney 1,093 1,109
Liz Claiborne Juicy Couture U.S. (excl outlets) 62 65
Lululemon Athletica Luluemon 113 119
LVMH Sephora 898 963
New York & Co New York & Co 589 592
Nordstrom Nordstrom full-line 109 112
Subtotal 20 12,805 13,158
________________________________________________
Source: Company filings, earnings transcripts, investor presentations, company press releases. In some cases, stores were counted from the store locator on the companies’ websites. This analysis is not meant to be
comprehensive and is limited by its inability to get information for private or international based tenants (i.e. Forever 21, Luxottica, etc…) as well as many public companies.
(1) Where available, attempted to limit store count to U.S., mall-based locations; however, many store counts include international stores or non mall-based locations.
(2) Beginning of Year 2009. Most store data is as of January 31, 2009.
(3) 24
Most store data is as of October 31, 2009 or November 2009.
Many Mall-Based Tenants Expanded in 2009 (Cont’d)
(1)
Stores
(2) (3)
Company Concept BOY Current
Payless Stride Rite 355 360
Restoration Hardware Restoration Hardware (excl outlets) 101 109
Rue21 Rue21 449 537
Stage Stores Bealls, Palais Royal, Peebles, Goody's 739 751
Talbots Talbots 587 589
The Buckle The Buckle 387 405
The Gap Banana Republic N.A. 573 582
The Limited Victoria's Secret 1,043 1,046
Henri Bendel 5 9
Tiffany & Co Tiffany U.S. 76 78
Urban Outfitters Urban Outfitters 142 151
Anthropologie 121 133
Free People 30 34
VF Corp VF-operated retail stores 698 733
Wet Seal Wet Seal 409 420
Williams-Sonoma West Elm 36 40
Williams-Sonoma Home 10 11
Zumiez Zumiez 343 378
________________________________________________
Source: Company filings, earnings transcripts, investor presentations, company press releases. In some cases, stores were counted from the store locator on the companies’ websites. This analysis is not meant to be
comprehensive and is limited by its inability to get information for private or international based tenants (i.e. Forever 21, Luxottica, etc…) as well as many public companies.
(1) Where available, attempted to limit store count to U.S., mall-based locations; however, many store counts include international stores or non mall-based locations.
(2) Beginning of Year 2009. Most store data is as of January 31, 2009.
(3) 25
Most store data is as of October 31, 2009 or November 2009.
Mall Occupancy is Stable
100.0%
In Q3’09,
97.5% occupancy was up
40bps sequentially
95.0%
90.0%
87.5%
85.0%
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09
________________________________________________
(1) Average of Simon and GGP. Simon data excludes regional Mills malls.
26
Survival of the Largest
Large Mall REIT Occupancy vs. Small Mall REIT Occupancy (1)
95.0%
Large Mall REITs Small Mall REITs
(GGP & Simon) (TCO, PEI, MAC)
87.6% 87.8%
87.5%
87.5%
85.0%
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.87%
0.80% 0.82%
0.61%
0.47% 0.47% 0.46% 0.47%
0.50% 0.41%
0.32% 0.30% 0.33%
0.00%
Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09
________________________________________________
(1) Average of Simon and GGP. GGP data only includes revenue from the mall segment
(i.e. excluding MPCs and GGMI).
28
Tenants Are Much Better Capitalized
Tenant Stock Price Performance
Mall REIT tenant stock prices have outperformed the S&P 500
by more than 30% year-to-date
180%
170%
160%
150% +50%
140%
130%
120% +19%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
(1)
S&P 500 Mall REIT Tenant Index
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ. Stock price data through December 4, 2009.
(1) Market cap weighted average index of GGP’s publicly traded top 10 tenants (Gap, Limited, Abercrombie, Foot Locker, American Eagle, JC Penney, Macy’s and Genesco).
30
Tenants have Delevered
(Top Ten & Selected Anchor Tenants)
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ. Net debt data is most recent as of December 4, 2009.
(1) GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement.
31
Tenants have Delevered (Cont’d)
(Selected In-line Tenants)
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ. Net debt data is most recent as of December 4, 2009.
(1) GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement.
32
Case Study: Bon-Ton
$16
$14
$13
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ (as of 12/4/09). 33
Case Study: Claire’s
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
34
Case Study: Zales
Zales’ net debt increased YoY primarily as the result of accelerating its
payment of vendor merchandise receipts into Fiscal Q1. Going forward, its
liquidity should benefit from the recently passed Business Assistance Act of
2009, which extends the period for which companies can carry-back NOLs
We expect many other retailers will benefit from the Business Assistance Act
35
Rent Relief Has Been Minimal
Rent Relief Less of an Issue than Originally
Anticipated
“Our 2009 rent relief total will be under $10 million, as in the $7 million
to $8 million range. But as I think we said on the call last quarter, we
hadn’t seen much of it year-to-date. So it’s a little back-end weighted,
and as you look at the impact of average base rent it could have a
nominal impact. But it’s a small number in the context of the size of our
income statements.”
37
Tenant Sales are Down, but Inventories
are Down Even More While Retailer Cash
Flows Have Improved Materially
A New Paradigm: Sales vs. Cash Flow
39
It’s Hard to Increase Sales when there is Less on the Shelves
(Top Ten & Selected Anchor Tenants)
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ. inventory data is most recent as of December 4, 2009.
(1) GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement.
40
It’s Hard to Increase Sales when there is Less on the Shelves
(Selected In-line Tenants)
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ. Most Q3 periods ended in October.
(1) GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement.
42
Lower Inventory = Higher Cash Flow (Cont’d)
(Selected In-line Tenants)
“The retailers that we are dealing with are certainly focused on sales,
but they are far more focused today on profitability and cash flow,
which leads to capital allocation for new stores or remodeled stores
upon renewal. What we faced in 2009 was, most retailers saying we
are preserving our cash because we are unsure about our line [of
credit]. And we are insecure about our ability to finance. Now that they
have better cash margins and better cash on deposit, we are now
hearing that they are allocating money for new open-to-buys. And I
think David gave you a list in his comments of those stores that are
looking at that. So I think it is going to be less correlated with sales
and more correlated with profitability and cash flow generation.”
45
Macerich’s Point of View
On the sales side, I want to talk about sales and talk about our leasing activity and our leasing spread. As you know in
the fourth quarter of last year, sales were off in general around 15% give or take, for most of the major mall owners
including ourselves. That was a disastrous comp sales decrease from a retailer's viewpoint. Because it was totally
unexpected from the retailer's viewpoint. As a result of that, it put the retailers into a freeze mode, not only into a freeze
mode, they even got into a cutback mode, because it was totally unexpected. Over the course of this year, the retailers
made major changes in their cost structure, major changes in their inventory levels and major changes in their business
plan. Made plans for their businesses to be down roughly 10 to 15%.
In February this year, we told you that we anticipated that for the first three quarters of this year, that we anticipated
double digit sales declines, and at the time, frankly, that was not a very thrilling prospect. In fact, we've had double digit
sales declines, off 12% in the first quarter, 11% in the second quarter, 9% in the third. But we're seeing a moderation in
the decreases, but more importantly, and I said this on the last call, is that you have to be careful about the comp sales,
because this year the difference between the first three quarters of this year and the fourth quarter of last year is that our
retailers planned to have their sales be off at this level. This was their business plan. They are meeting their business
plan.
They are maintaining their margins. So being off 10% when you plan to be off 10% and you keep your margin is a
significantly different situation than being off 15% when it wasn't your plan and your margins were decimated. As a
consequence of that, it's put our retailers into a mood where they're willing to talk about new leasing and we're able to
look at beginning to have some pickup in store growth. The moods of the retailers, and you've heard this on the other
conference calls with our peers, is improving dramatically. They went from being in a freeze mode in the fourth quarter of
last year, to things began to fall out in the second quarter of this year around ICSC. Now we're really having positive
conversations with our retailers about how they can grow their business and how we can grow our business together.
46
Summary
At the Beginning of 2009, The World was a Very Different
Place for Mall REITs
48
The World has Improved Dramatically
3 Tenant sales are down, but inventories are down even more
while retailer cash flows have improved materially
49
Why We Are Optimistic About the
Next Five Years
We Performed a Bottoms Up Analysis to Inform Our
Outlook for Mall REITs
f Revenue forecasts
f Profit forecasts
f Gathered consensus equity research estimates for tenant revenue and EBITDA
projections through 2010 and 2011
51
Expansions / New Concepts
Though there will continue to be store closures in 2010, there will be store
openings as well. More than half the companies we reviewed were either
planning to add new stores or roll out new concepts
Aeropostale A'gaci American Eagle
Rolling out 25-30 PS Kids new concept in '10 Growing store counts (per Simon) Plans to expand 77kids pop-up concept to a
25 Aeropostale stores in 2010 permanent brick & mortar store in 2010
Apple Bebe Bed Bath & Beyond
20-25 domestic stores in 2010 6 new stores in 2010 Expects to continue to add buybuy Baby
Expanding 2b bebe & PH8 concepts locations
Best Buy The Buckle Build-A-Bear
Sees Best Buy Mobile as a growth vehicle Continues to expand and has added 18 Sees potential for 350 stores in N.A.
going forward stores YTD
California Pizza Kitchen Charlotte Russe Cheesecake Factory
Growing store counts (per Simon) On track to open 20 stores in F2009 Testing Grand Lux and Rock Pan Asian
Already signed 11 leases for 2010 Kitchen concepts
Chico's The Children's Place CJ Banks
40 new stores in 2010 Rolling out new Tech II store format Will opportunistically pursue store
Expanding Soma concept expansions in 2010, incl jewelry concept
Coach Coldwater Creek Cotton On
20 new stores in N.A. in 2010 Sees opportunity to grow store base when Australian retailer looking to expand store
margins improve base from 600 to the 1,000s
________________________________________________
Note: This list is not meant to be comprehensive. It is based off publicly disclosed
expansion / new concept plans. Some of these tenants are also considering 52
selectively closing stores as well.
Expansions / New Concepts (Cont’d)
________________________________________________
Note: This list is not meant to be comprehensive. It is based off publicly disclosed
expansion / new concept plans. Some of these tenants are also considering 53
selectively closing stores as well.
Expansions / New Concepts (Cont’d)
________________________________________________
Note: This list is not meant to be comprehensive. It is based off publicly disclosed
expansion / new concept plans. Some of these tenants are also considering 54
selectively closing stores as well.
Store Expansions / New Concepts Create a Virtuous Cycle
for Mall REITs and their Tenants
The current environment has set the stage for tenants with value-
focused concepts, which are performing well in today’s market, to
expand and replace underperforming tenants. This mall “refresh”
creates a virtuous cycle
Higher
Higher Mall
Tenant
Traffic
Cash Flows
55
Supply Constraints Enhance Virtuous Cycle
“And frankly, when you look at the capital situation today, the construction in the retail
sector is at a 20-year low. We certainly anticipate it will remain there, and the lack of new
supply can only hopefully help the demand side for the existing product.”
– Rick Sokolov, COO of Simon Property Group, December 4, 2009
________________________________________________
Source: Goldman Sachs equity research November 2009. 56
Low Store Build-out Costs Enhance Virtuous Cycle
“A lot of contractors out there, you have a lot of architect firms, you have a lot
of vendors that are doing fixtures, a lot of them are very aggressive right now
and doing deals. So if you’re going to grow and open up stores, there’s an
opportunity to really drive down your build-out costs there .”
57
Positive Tenant Sales Momentum
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ consensus estimates as of December 5, 2009.
(1) Based on GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement. An analysis of other publicly traded mall-based
retailers results in similar growth expectations.
(2) Consensus revenue growth weighted average is weighted by each tenant as a % of GGP’s revenue (as disclosed in GGP’s quarterly
operating supplement).
59
Wall Street Anticipates Tenant Margin Expansion
($ in millions) Weight Consensus EBITDA Estimates (CY) Consensus EBITDA Margin Comments
Tenants Selected Concepts Factor (2) 2008a 2009e 2010e 2011e 2008a 2009e 2010e 2011e '10e Margin > '08a?
Top Ten Tenants (1)
The Gap Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic 2.9% $2,116 $2,280 $2,399 $2,382 14.6% 16.1% 16.8% 16.2% Yes
Limited Brands Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works 2.6% 1,061 1,099 1,182 1,279 11.7% 12.9% 13.7% 14.5% Yes
Abercrombie & Fitch Abercrombie, Hollister, Ruehl 2.3% 695 349 477 594 20.2% 11.6% 14.7% 16.8% No
Foot Locker, Inc. Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction 2.3% 286 252 269 311 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 6.4% Yes
American Eagle American Eagle, Aerie, M+O 1.5% 440 392 486 551 14.7% 13.3% 15.7% 17.0% Yes
Express Express 1.3% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
JCPenney Company JC Penney 1.3% 1,604 1,156 1,355 1,494 8.5% 6.6% 7.6% 8.2% No
Forever 21 4 Love, Forever 21, Gadzooks 1.2% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Macy's Macy's, Bloomingdale's, Lord & Taylor 1.1% 2,680 2,481 2,722 2,851 10.8% 10.6% 11.4% 11.9% Yes
Genesco Journeys, Underground Station, Lids 1.1% 113 123 135 145 7.3% 7.9% 8.3% 8.4% Yes
Total / Wtd Avg 17.6% $8,995 $8,132 $9,026 $9,608 12.2% 11.1% 12.4% 13.0% Yes
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ consensus estimates as of December 5, 2009.
(1) Based on GGP’s top ten tenants as disclosed in its quarterly operating supplement. An analysis of other publicly traded mall-based
retailers results in similar margin expectations.
(2) Consensus EBITDA margin weighted average is weighted by each tenant as a % of GGP’s revenue (as disclosed in GGP’s quarterly
operating supplement).
60
2009e Holiday Same-Store Comps
61
Mall Traffic Trending Up
62
Growing Strategic Interest in Malls
July 2009:
f Vintage Real Estate acquires regional mall, South Bay Pavilion, for $50mm
July 2009:
f Macerich sells a 49% interest in Queens Center in NY to Cadillac Fairview for $150mm in cash plus
$168mm in property level debt
September 2009:
f Macerich sells a 75% interest in its Flatiron Crossing Mall in CO for $116mm in cash plus $136mm of
assumed debt to private equity firm, GI Partners
October 2009:
f Heitman pays $168mm in cash and assumes $167mm of property level debt to acquire a 49.9% interest in
Macerich’s Freehold Raceway Mall in NJ and Chandler Fashion Center in AZ
November 2009:
f Blackstone acquires a 60% interest in two of Glimcher’s best malls – Lloyd Center and WestShore Plaza –
for $62mm in cash and $130mm in assumed debt
63
Mall REITs are Still Cheap
2. Risk-Free Rate 10-yr Treasury yield of 3.4%; 10-yr TIPS yield 1.3%;
other inflation protected assets trade at very low yields
Corporate BBBs yield ~6%
Mall cap rates are estimated to be ~7 to 8%
Assets Liabilities
■ Established national platform ■ Secured, non-recourse debt
provides leverage when dealing with a portfolio of options is more valuable than
tenants who are looking to expand or an option on a portfolio
reposition stores
■ Fixed-rate debt
■ High-quality malls, B+ to A+ provides a hedge against inflation
66
Conclusion
67
General Growth Properties
“Fool’s Gold”
We Think Current Equity Investors Will Be
Disappointed in the Company’s
Reorganization
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC
Table of Contents
• Thesis (p.3)
• The Demise of Malls in America (p.4‐11)
• The Beginning of the End (p.12‐14)
• Valuation Analysis (p.15‐31)
• Commercial Real Estate Valuation (p.32‐35)
• Potential Roadblocks (p.36)
• Disclosures (p.37‐38)
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 2
Our Thesis
• Due to highly leveraged acquisitions near the peak of the cycle, a decline in
the overall economy, and insufficient capital spending, we believe the assets
of General Growth no longer support the current capital structure.
• In our view:
‐‐ the company’s cash flows are insufficient to service the debt and pay for
maintenance capital at its malls; and
‐‐ the bankruptcy is not just the result of a liquidity problem; it is a cash flow
and loan‐to‐value problem.
• We believe the value of the assets no longer exceed the value of the debt, in
contrast to several recent analyses.
• Despite recent upward move in the GGWPQ share price, we believe current
equity investors are likely to be left with little in the restructured entity.
NOTE: THAT FUNDS ADVISED BY HOVDE CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC AND ONE OF ITS PRINCIPALS HAVE
SHORT POSITIONS IN GGWPQ. SEE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT PAGES 26 AND 27.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 3
The Demise of Malls in America
Structural Change in Retail
Consumption and Distribution
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 4
Consumers Are Saving More and
Spending Less
Personal Savings Rate
(% of Disposable Income)
16
14
12
10
8
Percentage
‐2
‐4
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 5
Consumers Have Less Access to
Credit
Source: Federal Reserve.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 6
Consumers Have Less Home Equity
Available to Support Spending
Source: Federal Reserve.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 7
Consumers Are Focused on Value
• Given lower levels of discretionary income and higher savings rates, we
believe consumers are seeking more value in their consumption habits.
• This is evident in the outperformance of discount retailers versus broader
retail sales. These retailers tend to be discounters and in non‐mall
locations, typically stand alone or located in strip centers and power
centers.
• In our view, outlets are also likely to gain share, which we think is
demonstrated in the recently announced acquisition of Prime Outlets by
Simon Properties Group (NYSE:SPG). The outlet business offers
consumers better value, offers retailers lower occupancy costs, and
provides landlords with better margins.
• Online shopping has experienced tremendous growth in share of retail
spending as consumers seek value and efficiency.
• These trends do not bode well for mall fundamentals since neither are
mall based.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 8
Non‐Mall Retailers Are Seeing
Improving Performance
Same-Store Retail Sales (% Chg.)
Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08
Non-Mall Average 1.2 2.8 1.4 (0.9) (4.0) (4.4) (1.8) (1.7) (2.7) (3.4) (8.5) (4.8)
BJ's Wholesale Club Inc 1.0 3.7 5.5 2.2 1.8 2.7 4.0 (4.9) 8.5 8.2 7.6 5.9
Cato Corp/The 2.0 - 6.0 5.0 (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) 11.0 6.0 8.0 (10.0) (2.0)
Costco Wholesale Corp 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 (1.0) 1.0 1.0 - 4.0 4.0 5.0 2.0
Kohl's Corp 3.3 1.4 5.5 0.2 0.4 (5.6) (0.4) (6.2) (4.3) (1.6) (13.4) (1.4)
Nordstrom: Rack Stores 3.3 5.9 - 3.8 (0.5) 0.6 2.2 4.4 0.1 (0.6) (2.2) (1.8)
Old Navy North Amer 6.0 14.0 13.0 4.0 (8.0) (7.0) 3.0 1.0 - (13.0) (34.0) (16.0)
Rite Aid Corp (0.8) (0.5) (0.3) (1.9) (0.6) (0.6) 0.6 1.8 (0.7) (0.9) 1.0 (0.2)
Ross Stores Inc 8.0 9.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 (2.0) -
Stage Stores Inc (12.5) (0.1) (5.6) (9.5) (11.9) (12.6) (7.2) (1.5) (15.0) (8.6) (13.1) (4.9)
Stein Mart Inc (7.2) (4.9) (5.4) (8.9) (5.5) (8.0) 0.2 (12.3) (1.4) (12.2) (16.7) (8.5)
Target Corp (1.5) (0.1) (1.7) (2.9) (6.5) (6.2) (6.1) 0.3 (6.3) (4.1) (3.3) (4.1)
TJX Cos Inc 8.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 - (4.0) -
Walgreen Co 3.9 (6.2) (17.6) (16.6) (25.5) (23.0) (27.0) (24.6) (31.2) (24.2) (25.8) (31.2)
Source: Bloomberg.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 9
Mall‐Based Retailers are Performing
Poorly
We Believe This Is Likely to Lead to Retail Bankruptcies and Store Closings
Same-Store Retail Sales (% Chg.)
Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08
Mall-based Average (6.7) (2.6) (3.8) (9.3) (10.5) (10.6) (10.1) (6.1) (11.6) (8.3) (10.6) (8.6)
Abercrombie & Fitch Co (17.0) (15.0) (18.0) (29.0) (28.0) (32.0) (28.0) (22.0) (34.0) (30.0) (20.0) (24.0)
Aeropostale Inc 7.0 3.0 19.0 9.0 6.0 12.0 19.0 20.0 3.0 11.0 11.0 12.0
American Eagle Outfitters Inc (2.0) (5.0) - (7.0) (11.0) (11.0) (7.0) (5.0) (16.0) (7.0) (22.0) (17.0)
Banana Republic N. Amer (4.0) 5.0 (12.0) (8.0) (7.0) (20.0) (14.0) (8.0) (16.0) (16.0) (22.0) (15.0)
Bon-Ton Stores Inc/The (6.0) 3.1 (4.8) (5.1) (9.8) (8.0) (12.1) (5.1) (11.2) (8.5) (8.2) (5.8)
Buckle Inc/The 1.4 4.3 5.1 3.6 2.8 9.6 13.4 18.2 14.7 21.0 14.7 13.5
Childrens Place Retail Stores Inc/The (13.0) (2.0) 4.0 (8.0) (4.0) (12.0) (9.0) 5.0 (2.0) - (11.0) -
Destination Maternity Corp (11.6) (5.2) (7.0) (10.6) (8.3) (10.7) (5.4) (1.2) (7.6) (3.5) 5.1 (6.9)
Dillard's Inc (11.0) (8.0) (6.0) (12.0) (12.0) (14.0) (12.0) (6.0) (19.0) (13.0) (12.0) (5.0)
Gap North America (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (7.0) (9.0) (10.0) (11.0) (10.0) (14.0) (12.0) (18.0) (12.0)
HOT Topic Inc (11.7) (2.6) (4.0) (8.1) (8.5) (7.9) (6.4) 3.1 7.1 10.8 6.0 4.3
JC Penney Co Inc (5.9) (4.5) (1.4) (7.9) (12.3) (8.2) (8.2) (6.6) (7.2) (8.8) (16.4) (8.1)
Ltd Brands Inc 3.0 (4.0) 1.0 (4.0) (7.0) (12.0) (7.0) (6.0) (9.0) (7.0) (9.0) (10.0)
Macy's Inc (6.1) (0.8) (2.3) (8.1) (10.7) (8.9) (9.1) (9.1) (9.2) (8.5) (4.5) (4.0)
Neiman Marcus Group (5.9) (6.0) (16.9) (19.6) (27.3) (20.8) (23.3) (22.5) (29.9) (20.9) (24.4) (27.5)
Nordstrom: Full-line Stores (0.6) 3.7 (3.9) (12.9) (7.8) (13.6) (16.7) (13.4) (16.9) (19.7) (18.1) (12.8)
Saks Inc (26.1) 0.7 (11.6) (19.6) (16.3) (4.4) (26.6) (32.0) (23.6) (26.0) (23.7) (19.8)
Wet Seal Inc/The (5.0) (1.3) (4.5) (11.2) (12.1) (11.1) (8.4) (2.2) (12.5) (6.6) (14.7) (12.5)
Zumiez Inc (8.5) (8.9) (0.8) (12.1) (16.8) (19.3) (20.7) (13.8) (17.9) (13.4) (14.8) (12.3)
Source: Bloomberg.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 10
Online Sales Are Gaining Share
Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail E‐commerce Sales as a Percent of Total
Quarterly Retail Sales:
4th Quarter 1999 Æ 2nd Quarter 2009
Percent of Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 11
The Rouse Company
Acquired November 2004
The Beginning of the End
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 12
The Rouse Company Acquisition
• Purchase price: $14.3 billion.
• Portfolio of 37 regional malls (and various office assets) and
$2 billion of land and lots, mostly in Summerlin (Las Vegas)
– reports from market participants as noted on the next
page suggest land prices in this market have fallen
dramatically, and, in some cases, the land has an implied
value of zero or even negative values.
• Capitalization rate of 5.3% ‐ implies over $4 billion
destruction of estimated asset value at today’s market
prices, assuming an 8% cap rate.
• $400 million of goodwill – not only do we believe it was
purchased at near‐peak values, it was overvalued when
they bought it!
Source: Rouse Company SEC filings.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 13
The Rouse Company Acquisition
• Las Vegas land is now worth materially less than in
2004. We think there is little value in the master
planned community assets of General Growth.
• “…finished lots are trading at a discount and the underlying land at many
nonprime locations for residential development has virtually no value in
today’s distressed market, Cherney says. There is more pain to come in this
Vegas land market. The fundamentals of supply and demand are alive and well
and will ensure further declines into 2009. This washout is far from over.” ‐
Craig Cherney, director of Western operations of Philadelphia‐based American Land Fund as quoted in the
Las Vegas Sun, March 1, 2009.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 14
Valuation Analysis
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 15
Widely Relied Upon Analysis Is
Outdated
• We believe many investors/speculators have relied upon a Pershing
Square Capital LP analysis of the company issued in May 2009,
which used data from 2008. We are of the opinion that this very
dated analysis is flawed based on the deterioration in financial
performance at General Growth since 2008.
• The company’s actual cash flow (see p.19) is now more than 20%
below 2008 levels, and rents on new leases are down 33% versus
current in‐place rents as of the third quarter.
• We view the 7.5% capitalization rate assumption as far too
optimistic relative to private market transaction values. Macerich
(NYSE:MAC) recently sold comparable and higher quality mall
assets at cap rates higher than 8% (after factoring in preferred
returns to investors).*
• Bottom line: we believe the assets are worth less than the
liabilities.
*Source: Macerich press releases on September 3, 2009 and October 1st 2009; Macerich conference call November 5th, 2009.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 16
Leverage is a Significant Valuation
Factor
• Pershing Square uses Simon Properties Group (NYSE:SPG)
as a comparable in their analysis without giving
consideration to leverage. Simon is moderately leveraged,
with debt to EBITDA of 6x, and is an investment grade rated
credit. General Growth’s leverage is in excess of 16x and
would still be in excess of 12x even if all of the unsecured
debt was converted to equity.
• There are no comparably leveraged public companies in
the mall sector, but those that are more highly leveraged
trade at a significant discount to those with less leverage.
Clearly companies with less leverage trade at premium
valuations as shown on the following page.
Source: General Growth third quarter 2009 supplemental package; Simon Property Group third quarter 2009 supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 17
Leverage Is a Significant Valuation
Factor
Leverage and Valuation Comparison
Implied Leverage
Cap Rate (Debt/EBITDA)
Average Average
CBL & Associates 9.3% 8.9x
Macerich 8.3% 8.2x
Simon Property Group 7.3% 6.8x
Average 8.3% 8.0x
Average of analyst estimates from ISI and Deutsche Bank as of 12/4/09; General Growth third quarter 2009 supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 18
Cash Flows Have Collapsed
This is the
starting point
This is the
for Pershing
reality of today
(‐27% yr/yr). Square’s
analysis.
Source: Third quarter 2009 General Growth supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 19
Rents Are Rolling Down Dramatically
New lease rates are 33% lower
than in‐place rents. This is not
good for the NOI outlook.
Source: Third quarter 2009 General Growth supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 20
NOI Sensitivity Drives Valuation
• The decline in NOI since 2008 drives a decline
in enterprise value of $3.8‐$4.3 billion under
the Pershing Square valuation framework.
• Applying Q3 annualized NOI to the Pershing
Square valuation analysis, the implied equity
value per share of the company today is
NEGATIVE $5.03 at an 8.5% cap rate and
+$5.73 at a 7.5% cap rate.
Source: “The Buck’s Rebound Begins Here” dated May 27, 2009 – Pershing Capital Management, L.P. (p. 56) and Hovde Capital Advisors LLC analysis (see
page 30).
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 21
Recent Comparable Transactions Indicate
Cap Rates Are Higher
• *Macerich’s (NYSE: MAC) sale of JV interest in
Queens Center (NYC, NY) to Cadillac Fairview
Corporation at a “low 7% cap” – per company
management.
• This mall generates $876/square foot in sales
versus General Growth’s $409/square foot.
*Source: Macerich press release July 30, 2009; Macerich conference call November 5th, 2009; third quarter 2009 General Growth
supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 22
Recent Comparable Transactions
Indicate Cap Rates Are Higher
• *Macerich’s (NYSE: MAC) sale of JV interests in
malls to Heitman and GI Partners at a “less
than 100 basis points over the 7.5% cap rate
on average.” – per Arthur Coppola (11/5/09
conference call). Thus we infer the effective
implied cap rate is in the 8.0%‐8.5% range.
• These malls generate $443‐$500/square foot
in sales versus General Growth’s $409/square
foot.
*Source: Macerich press releases on September 3, 2009 and October 1st, 2009; Macerich conference call November 5th, 2009.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 23
Recent Comparable Transactions
Indicate Cap Rates Are Higher
• The recently announced acquisition of Prime
Outlets by Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) was
estimated to be priced at an 8.0%‐8.4% cap rate
on in‐place NOI based on some Wall Street
estimates.(1)
• These malls generate $370/square foot in sales
versus General Growth’s $409/square foot,
however, outlet malls generally tend to generate
slightly higher NOI margins than regional mall
format in our view.
(1) Deutsche Bank estimate 8.4% (report dated 12/8/09, titled “SPG Acquiring Prime Outlets.”) Sandler O’Neil estimates ~8% cap rate (report dated
12/8/09, titled “SPG: Stocking Up Before the Holidays; SPG to Acquire Prime Outlets.”
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 24
What Is the Appropriate Cap Rate?
• Based on recent comparable transactions, the use of
a cap rate below 8% seems disconnected with reality
in our view.
• We would argue a cap rate in the 8.5% range or
higher would be more appropriate for the General
Growth portfolio, given the below average
productivity of its malls* and the fact that it is
experiencing significant declines in new rents that in
our opinion will drive lower revenues and NOI for
some period of time.
* Source: based on Q3-09 disclosures from Macerich and Simon Properties Group.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 25
Interest Coverage Is Unsustainable
(This is cash flow problem, not just a liquidity problem)
Interest
coverage has
fallen to
minimal levels
(1.17x) – this is
before capital
expenditures.
Source: Third quarter 2009 General Growth supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 26
Amortizing Secured Debt Will Further
Reduce Debt Service Capacity
• Recent agreement with $9.7 billion of secured creditors
requires that interest‐only debt now amortizes principal
on a 30 year schedule.
• This will add over $300 million of annual debt service
initially, which steps up over time, i.e. increasing
amortization.
• By our estimates, this will initially drive the company’s
debt service coverage ratio to 1.0x or below based on the
company’s trailing 12‐month EBITDA as of 9/09.
• Based on the company’s projections, debt service
coverage for the properties secured by these loans will
be 1.0x in 2010, before considering mandatory principal
paydowns and other cash costs.
Source: US_ACTIVE:\43244255\04\47658.0008, debtor’s plan filed 12/1/09; third quarter 2009 General Growth supplemental
package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 27
Creditors Will Take the Cash
• Cash ($2/share) will likely be paid out to creditors in the form of
fees and reimbursement of legal expenses.
• According to documents recently filed in bankruptcy court, General
Growth will be forced to pay $423.2 million in extension fees,
servicer fees and expenses, catch‐up amortization payments,
accrued interest, the funding of certain escrows and other
expenses.
• This is only related to the agreement on $9.7 billion of secured
loans, so we believe the cost to secure agreements to restructure
the remaining $12 billion of debt will likely cost significantly more if
the costs are comparable to this agreement.
• Given our view that the cash costs of the restructurings will likely
exceed the company’s current cash position, we believe additional
claims will likely be settled in equity ownership, suggesting little if
any recovery for common shareholders.
Source: US_ACTIVE:\43244255\04\47658.0008, Exhibit 3, filed 12/7/09.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 28
Valuation
Pershing Square’s Analysis Uses Dated NOI
This is Q3 annualized NOI, and rents
Pershing Square Analysis Framework This is from are rolling down sharply (‐33%),
2008 which will drive lower NOI.
More Realistic Scenario
($ in millions, except per share data) Low High
Source: Third quarter 2009 General Growth supplemental package.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 30
Valuation
Assumes unsecured debt would require a moderate discount to convert, although it
is questionable in our view whether there will be any value for existing shareholders
given that we believe the value of the debt exceeds that of the assets.
Best Case Realistic Case
Best Case - Assuming Conversion Realistic Scenario - Assuming Conversion
($ in millions, except per share data) Conversion Price Range $5-$8 Conversion Price Range $3-$6
Annualized Cash NOI (1) $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200
Cap Rate 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Implied Value of GGP's REIT 29,333 29,333 29,333 29,333 25,882 25,882 25,882 25,882
Less: Total Debt (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174)
Less: Preferred Debt (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121)
Less: Other Liabilities (1,585) (1,585) (1,585) (1,585) (1,585) (1,585) (1,585) (1,585)
Plus: Cash (2) - - - - - - - -
Plus: Other Assets 1,777 1,777 1,777 1,777 1,777 1,777 1,777 1,777
Plus: Development Pipeline 603 603 603 603 603 603 603 603
Implied Equity Value $ 8,833 $ 8,833 $ 8,833 $ 8,833 $ 5,382 $ 5,382 $ 5,382 $ 5,382
Per Share $ 5.14 $ 5.94 $ 6.69 $ 7.39 $ 2.03 $ 2.60 $ 3.13 $ 3.62
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 31
Commercial Real Estate
Valuation Analysis
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 32
Commercial Real Estate Values
Have Dropped 43% Since the Peak
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
Oct‐01
Oct‐02
Oct‐03
Jan‐01
Apr‐01
Jul‐01
Oct‐04
Jan‐02
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
Oct‐05
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐06
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐07
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐08
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐09
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Apartment Industrial Office ‐ CBD Office ‐ Sub Strip All Core
Average $ 149
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 35
Potential Roadblocks
• Objections to the company’s plan of emergence related to
assets securing $9.7 billion of loans have been filed recently
by secured creditors who hold mechanics liens, tax liens,
claims relating to rent claw backs, and claims securing surety
bonds.
• Such creditors include:
– Apple
– Dillard’s
– Lewisville (TX) Independent School District
– Pima County (AZ)
– Travelers Casualty and Surety Company
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 36
Disclosures
• Funds advised by Hovde Capital Advisors, LLC and one
of its principals have established short positions in the
common stock of General Growth Properties (OTC:
GGWPQ) and in the common stock of Macerich (NYSE:
MAC). One of the principals has established a short
position in Saks (NYSE: SKS). Their positions in these
stocks and others may change without further notice.
• Neither the funds advised by or any affiliates of Hovde
Capital Advisors, LLC hold positions in any other
companies mentioned in this document other than
those mentioned above.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 37
Disclosures Continued
• The opinions and views express in this document
and the analysis set forth therein may change and
Hovde Capital Advisors, LLC is not undertaking to
update its opinions, views or analysis.
• Although the factual information contained in
this document is believed to be accurate, Hovde
Capital Advisors, LLC does not warrant its
accuracy or completeness.
• This document is not intended to be, and should
not be construed as, investment advice or a
recommendation to buy or to sell any security.
December 14, 2009 Hovde Capital Advisors LLC 38
GGP Part II
May 26, 2010
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with
respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the
companies, access to capital markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements,
estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated
results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and
contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or
implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or
with respect to any other materials herein.
Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of actively trading – buying and selling –
securities and financial instruments. In particular, funds managed by Pershing Square and its
affiliates have invested in long and short positions of certain mall REITs, including long debt and
equity positions in General Growth Properties Inc. and other commitments to recapitalize that
company. Pershing Square may currently or in the future change its position regarding any of the
securities it owns. Pershing Square reserves the right to buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form
of its investment in any company for any reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to
provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the
manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
1
At Last Year’s Ira Sohn Conference, We Delivered a
67-page Presentation on General Growth Entitled:
3 Preserves jobs
________________________________________________
Source: See page 34 of “The Buck’s Rebound Begins Here,” May 27, 2009. 3
GGP’s Bankruptcy has Progressed Largely as We Expected
3 The weighted average contract interest rate for these loans is 5.07%,
(1)
which is lower than the original interest rate
________________________________________________
(1) Source: GGP Press Release (4/29/10).
4
GGP has Secured a Commitment for Enough Capital to
Repay its Unsecured Creditors in Full at Par Plus Accrued
________________________________________________
(1) Source: GGP Press Release (5/3/10).
5
The Buck Has Rebounded
Though GGP’s stock price has risen more than 1000% over the past year,
its TEV has only increased 12%. This compares to Simon Property Group
(“SPG” or “Simon”) whose TEV has risen 29% over the same period
$20
$18
$16
GGP traded at
$14
$1.19 as of last $14
$12 year’s Ira Sohn
Conference
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 May-10
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ (as of 5/28/10). 6
A Little Context…
At the Beginning of 2009, The World was a Very Different
Place for Mall REITs
8
U.S. Economy Recovering
U.S. Real GDP growth has been positive the past three quarters
6.0% 5.6%
4.0%
3.0%
2.2%
2.0% 1.5%
0.0%
(0.7%)
(2.0%)
(2.7%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%) (5.4%)
(6.4%)
(8.0%)
Q2’08 Q3’08 Q4’08 Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09 Q4’09 Q1’10
________________________________________________
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (5/27/10). 9
The Housing Market is Showing Signs of Improvement
The ABX AAA 06-2 Index, which tracks pricing on a basket of 2006
vintage subprime loans, has marched upward over the past year
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg (as of 5/28/10). 10
Consumer Confidence is Up
70.5
70.0
67.5
65.0 63.7
61.1
60.0 59.2
55.0
50.0
Sept-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sept-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May
2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
________________________________________________
Source: University of Michigan / Bloomberg. Most recent data point available as of 5/28/10. 11
Personal Savings Rate Reverting
After peaking in May 2009, the U.S. personal savings rate has
reverted to near its 10-yr average
7.0% LTM
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% Average:
2.8% 3.6%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg / Bureau of Economic Analysis (as of 5/28/10). Most recent data point as of Apr-10. 12
Mall Traffic Improving
________________________________________________
Source: Jefferies equity research (4/22/10). 13
Retail Construction Remains at a 20-Year Low
“And frankly, when you look at the capital situation today, the construction in the retail
sector is at a 20-year low. We certainly anticipate it will remain there, and the lack of new
supply can only hopefully help the demand side for the existing product.”
– Rick Sokolov, COO of Simon Property Group, December 4, 2009
________________________________________________
Source: Goldman Sachs equity research November 2009. 14
Mall REITs Have Regained Access to Capital
Although Mall REIT cap rates have come in from their double-digit
highs, mall REITs still trade at a discount to corporate Baa yields
10.0%
Mall Implied Cap Rate
9.5%
Baa
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.4%
6.5%
6.0%
6.1%
5.5%
5.0%
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
M 05
M 06
M 7
M 08
M 09
Se 05
Se 6
M 10
Se 07
Se 08
Se 9
Ju 5
Ju 6
Ju 7
Ju 8
0
N 5
N 6
N 7
N 8
N 9
M 5
M 6
M 7
M 8
M 9
M 0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
0
l-0
l-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
0
0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
l-
n-
l-
l-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
ov
ov
ov
ov
ov
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
Ju
Ja
________________________________________________
Source: Green Street (as of 5/1/10). Most recent available.
16
Tenant Bankruptcies Have Decreased
1.5%
1.2%
1.1% 1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10
________________________________________________
Source: Taubman quarterly financial supplements. 17
Tenant CDS Spreads Have Narrowed
500bps
400bps
300bps
200bps
139bps
100bps
0bps
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
________________________________________________
Note: Represents an equal-weighted basket of CDS prices for GGP’s top 10 tenants (where CDS pricing
is available), which include Gap, Limited, JC Penney and Macy’s.
Source: Bloomberg (5/28/10). 18
Rent Relief Less of an Issue than Originally
Anticipated
“Our 2009 rent relief total will be under $10 million, as in the $7 million
to $8 million range. But as I think we said on the call last quarter, we
hadn’t seen much of it year-to-date. So it’s a little back-end weighted,
and as you look at the impact of average base rent it could have a
nominal impact. But it’s a small number in the context of the size of our
income statements.”
19
Mall Leasing Activity Picking Up Substantially
20
Tenant Sales Growing Quickly
________________________________________________
Source: “Why the Sad Face Mall Sector?” Credit Suisse equity
research (4/26/10). 21
Mall REIT Comp Tenant Sales Growth Positive in Q1’10
8.0% 7.5%
6.6%
6.0%
5.3%
4.0% 3.4%
2.0%
0.0%
“On a quarterly basis, comparable tenant sales rose a healthy 7.5% year-over-year, with
momentum picking up over the course of the quarter. January 2010 comparable sales
increased 2.5% year-over-year, with February and March showing accelerating increases
of 6.0% and 10.0%, respectively.”
22
– GGP Q1’10 Operating Supplement
The World has Improved Dramatically
PF GGP GGO
■ Ownership or management of ■ Master Planned Communities (“MPC”)
approximately 200 regional malls ■ Development assets
■ Community / strip retail centers (i.e. Victoria Ward, South St Seaport)
■ Office properties ■ Non-income producing assets
■ GGMI (i.e. Fashion Show air rights)
■ 13 underperforming malls (“Special ■ Other assets
Consideration Properties” or “SCPs”)
assumed to be transferred to lenders
24
PF GGP
Why is PF GGP a Good Investment?
f Low Risk
PF GGP will emerge with much less debt, but similar NOI
PF GGP will be a portfolio of approx. 200 regional malls and other assets
~80% of its financing will be single-property, non-recourse debt
Removal of SCPs, settlement of Hughes claim, and elimination of
deferred tax liabilities
f High Quality
Approximately 100 of PF GGP’s malls are high-quality, “mini-monopolies”
within their respective markets
A disproportionate share of PF GGP’s NOI is generated by its top assets
Events of the past two years have further confirmed that high quality mall
assets are recession-resistant
f Recent Underperformance Creates Future Upside
Two years of financial distress have caused GGP to underperform its peer
group
Investors get the benefit of a turnaround opportunity without the risk
26
Why is PF GGP a Good Investment? (Cont’d)
f Over the past twelve months, the credit quality of the “bonds”
has improved as tenant credit quality has strengthened and
their CDS spreads have narrowed
f The reason is that B minus and lower malls have potential catastrophic
risk. For example, a mall might lose key anchor tenants, or be
disintermediated by a better located mall, which could cause a mall to
lose 80% or more of its value
Leverage
$0
60%
$60 $60
$100
$40
$60
$60 $40
$100
$40 $40
Leverage
$100
60%
$180 $180
$100
If one of the malls dies, equity value is nearly wiped out. Given
the covenants associated with recourse debt, the destruction
of value would likely be even more severe
$0
$100
$180 $180
Leverage
90%
$100
$20
TTM
Tenant Occup.
GLA (4) Sales PSF Occup. Cost
GGP (1) 65.3 $411 90.5% 14.6%
Less: SCPs / Highland (2) 3.9 250 82.5% 18.0%
Less: GGO Malls (3) 2.0 325 82.5% 17.0%
PF GGP 59.4 $424 91.3% 14.3%
35
PF GGP Shares Outstanding / Market Cap
At $15 per share, PF GGP would emerge with a ~$16bn market cap
(units in mms, except per share data) Illustrative PF GGP FDSO @ Various Share Prices
$10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00
Current FDSO (1) 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
BPF minimum commitment 440 440 440 440 440 440 440
Clawback shares (2) 190 190 190 190 190 190 190
Liquidity Equity Issuances (3) 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
PF GGP FDSO (excl warrants) 1,019 1,019 1,019 1,019 1,019 1,019 1,019
(1) Includes OP Units and options. Source: Q1'10 operating supplement, pg 27.
(2) Assumes full clawback of 190mm Pershing Square and Fairholme shares.
(3) Assumes GGP sells 65mm Liquidity Equity Issuances shares.
(4) Represents the share-equivalent amount of 120mm warrants at various PF GGP share prices.
(5) Black-Scholes warrant valuation. Assumes 20 vol, 60mm warrants at $10.50 strike, 60mm
warrants at $10.75 strike, and 7-yr duration.
36
PF GGP Would Be the Second Largest U.S. REIT
________________________________________________
Source: Market cap data from Green Street Real Estate Securities Monthly (as of 6/1/10). 37
PF GGP Will Be A “Must-Own” REIT Stock
38
Simon Crossholdings Analysis
There is enormous shareholder overlap among the top five REITs in the IYR. On
average, the same 25 holders own ~60% of the top five REITs, yet they currently
own less than 1% of GGP. In order to obtain similar ownership of PF GGP, they
must buy 60% or $9bn of PF GGP
Equity Public Boston
(units in millions) Simon Vornado Residential Storage Properties Macerich GGP
Top 25 Holders Shares Value Shares Value Shares Value Shares Value Shares Value Shares Value Shares Value
The Vanguard Group 25 $2,120 14 $1,073 24 $1,068 11 $1,034 12 $922 9 $364 - -
BlackRock 20 1,668 13 975 22 977 11 969 11 833 9 359 0 0
Cohen & Steers 17 1,464 6 444 11 476 8 680 4 336 6 229 - -
State Street Global Advisors 13 1,117 8 579 13 555 6 559 6 481 3 130 0 2
Fidelity Investments 11 965 7 524 8 341 6 505 4 286 6 224 0 5
Stichting Pensioenfonds 9 789 6 489 12 519 5 490 5 400 2 68 - -
ING Investment Mgmt 9 761 7 567 8 332 2 149 2 145 12 496 - -
Morgan Stanley Inv Mgmt 8 660 5 392 17 734 3 288 4 299 1 30 0 0
Invesco 8 657 5 358 7 311 3 316 4 290 4 163 0 0
PGGM 10 852 4 280 5 225 2 194 3 213 3 128 - -
LaSalle Investment Mgmt 6 529 5 343 6 251 3 311 3 213 1 21 - -
Old Mutual Asset Mgmt 4 346 5 393 7 312 3 285 3 200 3 115 1 17
RREEF 7 547 1 99 3 150 3 317 4 335 2 96 - -
AEW Capital Mgmt 5 416 3 211 6 285 2 212 3 236 3 108 - -
T. Rowe Price Group 5 387 3 192 3 149 1 132 2 155 2 97 - -
Security Capital Research 3 266 1 98 6 254 2 185 3 231 2 76 - -
Frank Russell 4 325 2 154 4 168 2 180 2 125 2 64 - -
STB Asset Mgmt 4 310 2 189 3 139 2 160 2 171 0 3 - -
Northern Trust 3 291 2 152 3 150 2 146 2 129 1 31 - -
Principal Global Investors 4 328 1 108 2 102 2 159 2 151 1 27 2 24
Dimensional Fund Advisors 3 265 2 152 3 134 2 168 2 116 1 40 0 0
Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt 5 436 1 66 0 14 1 118 2 178 0 3 0 6
TIAA-CREF 3 250 2 133 2 106 2 148 2 127 1 51 0 3
Nikko Asset Mgmt 3 241 2 159 3 118 1 130 2 137 0 16 - -
Adelante Capital Mgmt 3 218 2 126 3 142 1 126 2 117 1 31 - -
Top 25 Holders 193 $16,209 109 $8,255 182 $8,010 88 $7,961 90 $6,826 74 $2,971 4 $57
% of Mkt Cap (1) 66% 60% 64% 52% 65% 57% 0%
________________________________________________
Source: Capital IQ as of 5/21/10.
(1) % of market cap is based on Capital IQ market cap estimates, which tend to rely solely on basic shares outstanding.
% of GGP market cap is based on PF GGP market cap at $15 per share. 39
Not Your Typical Public Offering
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes full clawback of 190mm PershingSquare and Fairholme shares.
Assumes GGP sells full amount of 65mm Liquidity Equity Issuances shares. 40
PF GGP IPO Supply / Demand Dynamic
Demand Supply
($ and shares in millions)
Anticipated PF GGP IPO Supply
Anticipated Demand from
the Dedicated REIT Universe Clawback shares (2) 190
Liquidity Equity Issuances (3) 65
PF GGP Market Cap (@$15) $ 16,090
PF GGP IPO Share Supply 255
Top 25 REIT Investors
average % of Mkt Cap (1) 60.0% PF GGP share price $ 15.00
Anticipated Demand $9,654 Anticipated Supply $3,825
At $15 per share, PF GGP would trade at a 6.6% cap rate, in line
with comparable mall REITs
(units in mms, except per share data) Illustrative PF GGP Cap Rate @ Various Share Prices Memo:
$10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00 $9.00
Price $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00 $9.00
PF GGP FDSO (incl warrants) 1,051 1,056 1,060 1,065 1,069 1,073 1,076 1,045
Market Cap $10,506 $11,612 $12,725 $13,843 $14,965 $16,090 $17,219 $9,408
Target Net Debt (1) $22,971 $22,971 $22,971 $22,971 $22,971 $22,971 $22,971 $22,971
Less: SCPs debt (2) (948) (948) (948) (948) (948) (948) (948) (948)
Less: GGO debt (3) (506) (506) (506) (506) (506) (506) (506) (506)
Less: Highland debt (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
Less: Brazil adjustment (4) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15)
Less: Excess Sources (5) (1,678) (1,729) (1,780) (1,831) (1,882) (1,933) (1,984) (1,678)
Plus: Other liabilities (6) 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345
Less: Other assets (7) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686) (1,686)
TEV $29,957 $31,012 $32,074 $33,141 $34,212 $35,287 $36,364 $28,859
Less: GGMI (8) (151) (151) (151) (151) (151) (151) (151) (151)
Less: Development assets (9) (183) (183) (183) (183) (183) (183) (183) (183)
Adj TEV $29,623 $30,678 $31,740 $32,807 $33,878 $34,953 $36,030 $28,525
PF GGP LTM Adj Cash NOI 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290
Cap Rate 7.7% 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 8.0%
Net Debt / TEV (10) 66.7% 64.4% 62.3% 60.3% 58.4% 56.6% 54.9% 69.2%
(1) Target Net Debt as of the original Cornerstone Investment Agreement. Target Net Debt is an estimate of GGP's net debt as of 9/30/10e. (4) Brazil debt included in Target Net Debt is $110.4mm (Source: Cornerstone Investment Agreement.)
Target Net Debt includes PF GGP and GGO liabilities. In addition, Target Net Debt includes non-debt liabilities, such as accrued interest and GGP's share of this debt as of 3/31/10 was $95.2mm. Source: Q1'10 supplement pg 2.
Permitted Claims (i.e. the KEIP), among other things. Therefore, Target Net Debt includes the Company's estimate of bankruptcy "exit costs." (5) See Excess Sources appendix page for details. Excess Sources are treated as cash and offset Target Net Debt. Bankruptcy "exit costs"
Furthermore, Target Net Debt includes the following: $1.5bn of New Debt, debt associated with GGP's international subsidiaries, and preferred stock. are excluded from uses in the Excess Sources calculation because they are included as Permitted Claims in Target Net Debt.
Source: pg 75 of docket #4874. See appendix for details. Excess Sources will likely be higher than presented, to the extent GGO's IPO Participation is greater than permitted liabilities.
(2) SCP debt needs to be removed from Target Net Debt to arrive at an estimate of PF GGP debt upon emergence (assumed to be 9/30/10e). (6) Includes GGP's other liabilities that are not accounted for as part of Target Net Debt. See appendix for details.
This assumes GGP "hands back the keys" on SCP malls. This is a Pershing Square assumption as the outcome is TBD. Source: pg 17 of Q1'10 10-Q.
(7) See appendix for details. Excludes goodwill.
See appendix for details.
(8) Applies 25% EBIT margin assumption to LTM management income of $80mm. Applies 7.5x
(3) Debt associated with properties going to GGO needs to be removed from Target Net Debt to arrive at an estimate of PF GGP debt.
multiple to implied LTM EBIT. Source for LTM fee income: GGP operating supplements.
GGO debt includes debt associated with Victoria Ward, GGP's headquarters leasehold, the Bridgelands MPC and GGP's pro rata share of the
Woodlands MPC debt. Debt estimate is derived from GGP's public filings and may not exactly reconcile to GGP's 9/30/10e estimate of such debt.
42 (9) PF GGP development assets including Christiana Mall, Fashion Place, St Louis Galleria. Source: Q1'10 operating supplement.
See appendix for details. (10) 9/30/10e PF GGP debt less $500mm of Proportionally Consolidated Unrestricted Cash.
GGP Currently Trades at a Meaningful Cap Rate Spread
to Simon
________________________________________________
Source: “Why the Sad Face Mall Sector?” Credit Suisse equity research (4/26/10). 43
(1) See previous page for details.
PF GGP Will Have An Industry Leading Balance Sheet
Although PF GGP will have slightly more leverage than its peers on an
absolute basis, it will have a long-dated, laddered debt maturity profile.
We believe a reasonable amount of non-recourse leverage, especially if
the debt is high-quality, is more of an asset than a liability
Pro Forma
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Debt duration 5.3 yrs 5.2 yrs 7.0 yrs 3.2 yrs
Tenants Sales
7.5% 6.6% 5.3% 3.4%
Growth (Q1’10)
(5)
Tenants Sales
16.5% 6.6% 5.3% 3.4%
Growth (Q1’10)
________________________________________________ 47
Source: Simon operating supplements.
A Word On Simon’s Reported Operating Metrics (Cont’d)
51
GGO IPO Participation
Under the terms of the fully executed Cornerstone Investment Agreement, GGO
will retain 80% of every dollar PF GGP raises above $10 per share, up to the
value of the ~$300mm deferred tax liabilities and the Hughes claim. This IPO
Participation allows GGO to benefit from a successful PF GGP capital raise
GGP Offer Price $ 10.00 $ 11.00 $ 12.00 $ 13.00 $ 14.00 $ 15.00 $ 16.00
GGO IPO Participation $ - $ 204 $ 408 $ 612 $ 816 $ 1,020 $ 1,224
52
GGO IPO Participation (Cont.)
Deferred Tax Liabilities (2) $ 304 At $15 per share, the GGO
IPO Participation will be
~$1bn, substantially more
Hughes Heirs' Claim X
than enough to satisfy
Permitted Liabilities $304 + X these permitted liabilities
(1) Projected bankrupcty exit costs, "Permitted Claims", are $650mm per Pershing Square assumptions
(2) Source: Cornerstone Investment Agreement
53
Hughes Claim
54
GGO Share Count
(1) Includes OP Units and options. Source: Q1'10 operating supplement, pg 27.
(2) Assumes only the backstop rights are exercised. Includes 2.5mm share backstop consideration.
(3) Black-Scholes warrant valuation. Assumes 20 vol, 80mm warrants at $5.00 strike.
55
GGO Capital Structure (Cont.)
GGO will have a strong balance sheet. 100% of GGO’s debt is property
level and non-recourse. $250mm of balance sheet cash ensures GGO
has ample liquidity to fund value creation opportunities
Price $ 5.00
Shares (mm) 400
Equity Value 2,000
MPC Portfolio
57
Development Asset: Victoria Ward
________________________________________________
(1) See appendix for details.
59
Development Asset: South St. Seaport
60
Development Asset: South St. Seaport (Cont’d)
61
Non-Income Producing Asset: Fashion Show Air Rights
GGO owns the air rights above the Fashion Show Mall in Las Vegas
¹Source: "Vegas Land Values Soaring Sky High", Glenn Haussman, Hotel Interactive, 5/25/2007
62
The North Vegas Strip
Encore
Fashion Show
Wynn
Palazzo
Venetian
Caesars
63
Conclusion
GGP Trades at a Meaningful Discount to Intrinsic Value
At a $14 GGP share price, you are buying GGO for negative $1
GGP Valuation
PF GGP ~$15
GGO ~$5
Combined ~$20
GGP Share Price ~$14
Implied Return at
Emergence by Year-end 43%
65
Over the years, people have
accused me of talking my book.
67
And one more thing…
68
Appendix
SCPs / Highland Mall
(units in millions, except per unit data) Balance Sheet Data Operating Metrics (4)
Interest Duration Sales Occup
GLA (5) Debt Rate (yrs) PSF Occup Cost
Consolidated Properties (1)
Eagle Ridge Mall 0.2 $47 5.41% 5.5
Oviedo Marketplace 0.3 51 5.12% 3.8
Grand Traverse Mall 0.3 84 5.02% 3.8
Country Hills Plaza 0.1 13 6.04% 6.2
Moreno Valley Mall 0.3 86 5.96% 3.8
Lakeview Square 0.3 41 5.81% 5.9
Northgate Mall 0.3 44 5.88% 6.4
Bay City Mall 0.2 24 5.30% 3.8
Mall St. Vincent 0.2 49 6.30% 4.3
Southland Center 0.3 107 4.97% 3.8
Chapel Hills Mall 0.4 114 5.04% 3.8
Chico Mall 0.2 56 4.74% 3.8
Piedmont Mall 0.2 33 5.98% 6.4
Subtotal 3.3 $750 5.38% 4.3
Unconsolidated Properties (2)
Silver City 0.2 66 4.95% 1.2
Montclair 0.3 134 5.88% 1.5
Subtotal 0.5 $198 5.57% 1.4
SCPs 3.7 $948 5.42% 3.7
Highland Mall (3) 0.2 32 6.83% 1.3 51.1%
SCPs / Highland 3.9 $980 5.47% 3.6 $250 82.5% 18.0%
(3) On 5/3/10 the property owned by the Highland JV was transferred to the lender (Source: 10-Q pg 40).
(1) Source: Exhibit C, docket #3660.
Source for debt detail: Simon Q1'10 supplement.
Source for debt balance / interest rate / duration: 5/12/10 8-K.
Source for occupancy: Simon 10-K.
(2) Source for malls: Q1 10-Q pg. 21-22. Data presented pro rata (i.e. if GGP owns 50%, 50% of the GLA is shown).
Source for duration: Q3'08 operating supplement.
Source for debt balance / interest rate / duration: Q3'08 supplement.
(4) Source: Pershing Square estimates.
Source for subtotal debt balance (as of 3/31/10): Q1 10-Q, pg 22.
Note: Occupancy costs are higher at underperforming malls because sales are low but rents are locked in.
70 (5) Mall and freestanding gross leasable area (excludes anchor space).
GGP Debt Detail – GGO
Debt
($ in 000s) Debt Balance
GGO Debt Balance as of: Source
Victoria Ward Cmbd $213,889 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
110 N. Wacker 45,943 9/30/08 Q3'08 supp
Bridgelands MPC 29,812 12/31/09 10-K
Woodlands MPC 216,343 9/30/08 Q3'08 supp
Debt
($ in 000s) Debt Balance
Other Debt Balance as of: Source
Bridgelands MPC $29,812 12/31/09 10-K
Woodlands MPC 216,343 9/30/08 Q3'08 supp
Homart I 245,115 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Ivanhoe Capital 93,713 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Turkey 57,221 9/30/08 Q3'08 supp
DIP 400,000 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Unsecured Debt:
Exchangeable debt 1,550,000 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Rouse debt 2,245,000 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Revolver 590,000 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
Senior term loan 1,987,500 3/31/10 5/12/10 8-K
TopCo Unsecured Debt 6,372,500
($ in 000s) Debt
Total GGP Debt Balance
Debtor entity debt $14,712,876
Non-Debtor entity debt 1,990,964
Joint Venture debt 3,259,984
Other debt 7,620,904
Subtotal 27,584,728
Note: Excludes mark-to-market debt discounts which would make the reported debt balance lower.
Excludes GGP's share of Brazil debt ($95.2mm as of 3/31/10). GGP has no obligations for further
contributions to its Brazilian subsidiary, Aliansce.
(1) Represents amortization that has occurred since the most recent reported date of GGP's debt.
For example, much of GGP's JV debt, reported as of 9/30/08, amortizes each month.
Data for which specific debt has been amortized, and in what amounts, is unavailable.
(2) Source: GGP Q1'10 operating supplement, pg 2.
76
PF GGP Debt Detail
JV Debt (excl Consolidated JVs) (7) 2,946 5.61% 2.1 2,946 100.0%
Less: Woodlands (4) (216) 5.69% 3.5 (216) 100.0%
Less: Highland (8) (32) 6.92% 1.3 (32) 100.0%
Less: JV SCPs (Silver City / Montclair) (198) 5.57% 1.4 (198) 100.0%
PF GGP Pro Rata JV Debt 2,499 5.59% 2.0 2,499 100.0%
Consolidated JV Debt
Provo Towne Centre Cmbd 43,302 5.91% 4/5/12 2.0
Spokane Valley Cmbd 41,052 5.91% 4/5/12 2.0
The Shops at La Cantera Cmbd 129,402 5.29% 6/7/10 0.2
The Streets at Southpoint 242,881 5.45% 4/6/12 2.0
Westlake Center Cmbd 68,119 8.00% 2/1/11 0.8
Less: Amortization (3) (15,163) Source: Interest rates per the Q3'08 GGP operating supplement. Many of these interest rates, especially to the
extent loans have been refinanced or are floating, may have changed since 9/30/08.
Source: Maturities per the Q3'08 operating supplement.
Non-Debtor Consolidated Debt (3/31/10) 2,530,369 5.68% 4/18/13 3.1
(1) For loans with maturity dates preceding 3/31/10, we have assumed they were refinanced with 1/1/14 maturity dates
and with 5.75% interest rates. Source: Pershing Square assumption.
Memo: Alternative Buildup (2) Source: Q3'08 operating supplement. Reported as "Houston Land Notes." The current interest rate is likely
Consolidated Debt (3/31/10) (4) 24,560,733 lower to the extent this debt is floating. Maturity date assumption is the midpoint of 2017-2033.
(3) Represents amortization that has occurred since the most recent reported date of GGP's debt.
Less: Total Debtor Debt (3/31/10) (5) (22,030,364)
(4) Source: Q1'10 supplement pg. 29.
Non-Debtor Consolidated Debt (3/31/10) 2,530,369 (5) Source: 5/12/10 8-K.
79
GGP Debt Detail – Joint Venture Debt (excluding
Consolidated JVs)
($ in 000s)
Joint Venture Debt Debt Duration Joint Venture Debt Debt Duration
(Excl Consolidated JVs) Balance Interest Maturity (Yrs) (Excl Consolidated JVs) Balance Interest Maturity (Yrs)
Alderwood Mall Cmbd 145,783 5.03% 7/6/10 0.3 Quail Springs Mall 37,409 6.87% 6/5/15 5.2
Altamonte Mall Cmbd 75,000 5.19% 2/1/13 2.8 Riverchase Galleria Cmbd 152,500 5.78% 10/3/11 1.5
(2)
Arrowhead Towne Center 25,820 6.92% 10/3/11 1.5 Silver City Galleria Cmbd 65,528 4.95% 6/10/11 1.2
Bridgewater Commons 47,754 5.27% 1/2/13 2.8 Stonebriar Centre Cmbd 84,405 5.30% 12/11/12 2.7
Carolina Place Cmbd (1) 80,281 4.60% 1/11/14 3.8 Superstition Springs Center 22,498 3.45% 9/9/11 1.4
Christiana Mall 56,838 4.61% 8/2/10 0.3 The Oaks Mall Cmbd 52,020 5.87% 12/3/12 2.7
(3)
Clackamas Town Center Cmbd 100,000 6.35% 10/5/12 2.5 Towson Town Center Cmbd 44,760 5.75% 1/1/14 3.8
First Colony Mall Cmbd 95,149 5.68% 10/3/11 1.5 Village of Merrick Park Total 76,034 5.94% 8/8/11 1.4
Florence Mall Cmbd 68,786 5.04% 9/10/12 2.4 Water Tower Place Cmbd 89,514 5.04% 9/1/10 0.4
Galleria Tyler Cmbd 125,000 5.46% 10/11/11 1.5 Westroads Mall Cmbd 45,518 5.83% 12/3/12 2.7
Glendale Galleria Cmbd 191,317 5.01% 10/1/12 2.5 Whalers Village Cmbd 64,893 5.63% 11/8/10 0.6
(2)
Highland Mall Cmbd 31,990 6.92% 7/8/11 1.3 Willowbrook Mall 46,003 7.00% 4/1/11 1.0
Kenwood Towne Centre Cmbd 168,095 5.58% 12/1/10 0.7 Owings Mills-One Corporate Ctr 4,119 8.50% 12/1/11 1.7
Mizner Park Total - - - - Center Pointe Plaza 6,846 6.38% 1/2/17 6.8
(2)
Montclair Place Cmbd 133,825 5.88% 9/12/11 1.5 Lake Mead Blvd & Buffalo 2,947 7.30% 7/15/23 13.3
Natick Mall Cmbd 175,000 5.74% 10/7/11 1.5 Trails Village Center 8,073 8.24% 7/10/23 13.3
(3)
Natick West 70,000 5.82% 10/7/11 1.5 Woodlands MPC 216,343 5.69% 10/9/13 3.5
Northbrook Court Cmbd 42,513 7.17% 9/1/11 1.4 Turkey 57,221 6.72% 1/1/18 7.8
Oakbrook Center Cmbd 103,010 5.12% 10/1/12 2.5 Joint Venture Debt 3,008,792 5.61% 4/27/12 2.1
Park Meadows Cmbd 126,000 6.00% 7/5/12 2.3
Perimeter Mall Cmbd - - - - Less: Amortization (4) (63,203)
Pinnacle Hills Promenade / West 70,000 5.84% 12/8/11 1.7
Joint Venture Debt (3/31/10) (5) 2,945,589 5.61% 4/27/12 2.1
Source: Interest rates per the Q3'08 GGP operating supplement. Many of these interest rates, especially to the
extent loans have been refinanced or are floating, may have changed since 9/30/08.
Source: Maturities per the Q3'08 operating supplement.
(1) GGP extended this loan at 4.5975% in Jan-10. Source: 1/25/10 press release.
(2) Represents an SCP mall. On 5/3/10 the property owned by the Highland JV was transferred to the lender (Source: 10-Q pg 40).
(3) For loans with maturity dates preceding 3/31/10, we have assumed they were refinanced with 1/1/14 maturity dates
and with 5.75% interest rates. Source: Pershing Square assumption.
(4) Represents amortization that has occurred since the most recent reported date of GGP's debt.
(5) Source: Q1'10 supplement pg. 29.
80
PF GGP Debt Detail – 9/30/10e Reconciliation
(1) Target Net Debt as of the original Cornerstone Investment Agreement. Target Net Debt is an estimate of GGP's net debt as of 9/30/10e.
Target Net Debt includes PF GGP and GGO liabilities. In addition, Target Net Debt includes non-debt liabilities, such as accrued interest and
Permitted Claims (i.e. the KEIP), among other things. Therefore, Target Net Debt includes the Company's estimate of bankruptcy "exit costs."
Furthermore, Target Net Debt includes the following: $1.5bn of New Debt, debt associated with GGP's international subsidiaries, and preferred stock.
Source: pg 75 of docket #4874.
(2) Source: Original Cornerstone Investment Agreement.
(3) Represents Pershing Square's estimate of bankruptcy "exit costs," including the KEIP, transaction costs, etc.
Pershing Square estimates this $650mm estimate could be more than $200mm too high.
(4) Includes accrued interest on unsecured debt, DIP loan, Homart/Ivanhoe, TRUPs, pfd stock, and secured debt. Pershing Square estimate.
(5) As of 3/31/10. Projected 9/30/10e balances included in Target Net Debt may differ than 3/31/10 actual debt balances due to interim amortization.
(6) Per the Cornerstone Investment Agreement. GGP's share of this debt as of 3/31/10 was $95.2mm. Source: Q1'10 supplement pg 2.
(7) Source: Q1'10 supplement pg 2.
(8) See appendix for details.
81
PF GGP Cap Rate Detail – Excess Sources
($ in mms, except per share data) Illustrative PF GGP Equity Raise Price
$10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00
Emergence Sources
New Debt (1) $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500
BPF (pre-clawback) (2) 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400
Clawback (3) 1,900 1,938 1,976 2,014 2,052 2,090 2,128
Liquidity Equity Issuances (4) 650 663 676 689 702 715 728
Emergence Sources 8,450 8,501 8,552 8,603 8,654 8,705 8,756
Emergence Uses
TopCo unsecured debt (5) 6,373 6,373 6,373 6,373 6,373 6,373 6,373
DIP loan (5) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
Emergence Uses 6,773 6,773 6,773 6,773 6,773 6,773 6,773
(1) New Debt is included as a source of funds because the corresponding liability is included in Target Net Debt.
The estimated fee to raise the New Debt is also included as a Permitted Claim in the Target Net Debt amount.
(2) Represents PF GGP's sale of 440mm shares to BPF at $10 per share. (250mm to B, 190mm to PF).
(3) Subject to the 80/20 GGO IPO Participation, PF GGP is entitled to keep 20% of excess proceeds raised above $10.
To the extent GGO's 80% IPO Participation exceeds permitted liabilities, PF GGP will be entitled to keep more cash
than presented above.
(4) Assumes GGP sells 65mm Liquidity Equity Issuances shares. GGP is entitled to keep 20% of excess proceeds
raised above $10.
(5) TopCo unsecured debt, which includes GGP's convert, Rouse debt, term loan, and revolver, and the DIP loan are treated as
uses of funds because they are excluded from Target Net Debt as part of the Reinstatement Adjustment Amount.
82
PF GGP Cap Rate Detail – Other Assets / Other Liabilities
PF GGP Other Liabilities (as of 3/31/10) ($ in mms) PF GGP Other Assets (as of 3/31/10) ($ in mms)
Consolidated other liabilities (1) $1,774 Accounts & notes receivable, net (1) $506
Plus: Unconsolidated other liabilities (2) 219 Deferred expenses, net (1) 384
Less: Hughes participation payable (3) (69) Prepaid expenses & other assets (1) 796
Less: Accrued interest accounted for in Target Net Debt (4) (383)
Less: Professional fees incl in other liabilities (5) (18) PF GGP Other Assets $1,686
Less: Accrued KEIP incl in other liabilities (6) (79)
Less: Other "Exit Costs" incl in other liabilities (7) (100)
PF GGP Adjusted Other Liabilities $1,345
(1) Source: GGP Q1 10-Q pg 34. Note: Excludes goodwill of $199.7mm as of 3/31/10.
(2) Assumes pro rata GGP share of unsonsolidated other liabilities is 50%. Source: 10-Q pg 23. (1) Includes unconsolidated other assets at 50% share. Source: pgs 3 and 23 of Q1'10 10-Q.
(3) Excluded from other liabilities as we assume this liability will be covered by the GGO IPO Participation.
Source: 10-Q pg 34.
(4) Target Net Debt includes accrued and unpaid interest on GGP's unsecured debt, pfd stock, partner loans,
DIP loan, and certain mortgage notes. As of 3/31/10, GGP had $450mm of accrued interest
included in other liabilities (Source: 10-Q pg 34). The vast majority of this is included in the Target Net Debt
amount and therefore needs to be adjusted to avoid double-counting. Pershing Square estimates at least
85% of this amount needs to be deducted as it likely relates to accrued interest included in Target Net Debt.
(5) Target Net Debt includes professional fees associated with GGP's bankruptcy. As a result, any amount
of professional fees included in other liabilities need to be deducted. Source: 10-Q pg 12.
(6) Target Net Debt includes GGP's ultimate KEIP payment, which was estimated to be $165mm as of
3/31/10. As of 3/31/10, $79mm of the KEIP had been accrued as a liability. Source: 10-Q pg 12.
(7) Includes pre-petition vendor liabilities and mechanics' liens that should be covered by the $650mm
Permitted Claims cushion in Target Net Debt. Source: Pershing Square estimate.
83
GGP Detail – LTM Cash NOI
84
Simon Cap Rate Detail – LTM Cash NOI
Less: Property operating costs (172) (161) (168) (180) (164) (157)
Less: Real estate taxes (106) (112) (106) (99) (108) (114)
Less: Repairs & maintenance (47) (33) (30) (29) (43) (34)
Less: Advertising & promotion (42) (24) (25) (29) (39) (25)
Less: Provision for credit losses (10) (17) (9) (0) (2) 3
Less: Other (41) (35) (40) (36) (44) (35)
NOI $916 $789 $791 $817 $901 $830
Less: Straight-line rent adj. (3) (9) (11) (7) (8) (6) (5)
Less: FAS 141 adj. (lease mark to mkt) (3) (9) (7) (13) (6) (6) (5)
Cash NOI $899 $772 $770 $803 $889 $821 $3,284
(1) Includes Series I preferred shares and options (Source: Simon Q1'10 operating supplement).
(2) As reported in Simon's pro rata balance sheet (Source: Simon Q1'10 operating supplement).
(3) Excludes $20mm of goodwill (Source: Simon 2009 10-K).
(4) Simon's share of U.S. CIP (page 36 of Q1'10 operating supplement).
(5) Applies 25% EBIT margin to LTM fee income of $122mm and a 7.5x EBIT multiple.
(6) See Simon LTM Cash NOI appendix page for details.
86
Simon Occupancy Cost Detail
(3) (8)
Occupancy Cost 12.5% 15.1% 14.6%
(7)
Adjustment Factor (4) 1.24x 1.22x 1.22x
Note: Unlike GGP, Simon does not disclose occupancy cost data. The exercise above uses historical reported
GGP data to attempt to back into Simon's implied Regional Malls occupancy cost. Actual data may vary.
(1) Represents Consolidated Portfolio (i.e. excl unconsolidated). This is done because GGP does not disclose
rent per sq ft metrics on a pro rata basis.
(2) GGP used to report rent per sq ft instead of rent & recoverable common area costs per sq foot before Q1'07.
Represents GGP Q4'06 consolidated rent per sq ft of $34.29 with assumed 3% YoY growth (same as Q4'06 reported growth).
Source: GGP Q4'06 operating supplement.
(3) Source: GGP Q4'07 operating supplement.
(4) Represents the ratio of Occupancy Cost to rent & recoverable common area costs / tenant sales.
(5) Source: Simon Q4'09 operating supplement.
(6) Assumes Simon's ratio of rent and recoverable common area costs PSF / rent PSF is 1.34x based on GGP's
historical ratio of 1.27x. Simon derives approximately 5% more of its revenue from tenant reimbursements than GGP.
(7) Based on GGP's adjustment factor as of Q4'09.
(8) Source: GGP Q4'09 operating supplement.
87
GGO Detail – Victoria Ward Comp
88
Wait to Rate:
How To Save The Rating Agencies
(and the Capital Markets)
May 26, 2010
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital
markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of
such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may
vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates have invested in long and short positions in various
securities and financial instruments. Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of actively
trading – buying and selling – securities and financial instruments. Pershing Square may currently or in the
future change its position regarding any of the securities it owns. Pershing Square reserves the right to buy,
sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in any company for any reason. Pershing Square
hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including,
without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
1
The Context
2
What Are the Principal Problems?
Investors – Overly relied on ratings rather than their own due diligence
and are often subject to ratings-based investment limitations
NRSROs – Are conflicted by how they are paid; without high ratings,
agencies do not earn fees on new issue transactions
“Success Fee” model leads to competition and grade inflation among
NRSROs for new issuers and new product ratings
3
What Are the Principal Problems? (Cont’d)
4
How Do You Solve These Problems?
Make
Our a new law
suggested rider to the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010
“New Issue Ratings Moratorium. Prior to the date 60 days after the issuance of
a new fixed income security, it shall be unlawful for any NRSRO to:
(1) Have any contact with issuers, sponsors, servicers, trustees or underwriters of
such security during such period,
(2) Comment publicly on, or issue ratings regarding, any such security, or
(3) Otherwise participate in the structuring, underwriting, offering or sale of such
securities during such period.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, NRSROs shall at all times be permitted to:
(a) Conduct due diligence based solely on publicly available information of the
issuer or otherwise related to the security in respect of future ratings for such
issuer or security, and
(b) At all times broadly publish their ratings standards, procedures and
methodologies.”
5
How Do You Solve These Problems? (Cont’d)
Allow Non-NRSROs to Publish During New Issue Moratorium – Firms can (1)
apply to be qualified as NRSROs and be subject to the new issue ratings moratorium
or (2) choose to be non-NRSROs and compete for business from investors during
the moratorium on the basis of the quality of their research
Creates incentive for the development of an “Investor Pays” model for non-
NRSRO rating agencies who will seek to fill the ratings void left by the New Issue
Ratings Moratorium on NRSROs
Insist on NRSRO Accountability – The SEC should be required to revoke a ratings
agency’s NRSRO status if it consistently underperforms its peers
While the SEC currently has the power to revoke NRSRO status, it has failed to
exercise that power likely because of the lack of credible alternatives to NRSROs
Bright line rules requiring the exercise of that power after material consistent
underperformance could address the breakdown caused by the SEC’s past
regulatory forbearance
Buyside analysts will develop into credible alternatives and even new NRSROs
6
How Do You Solve These Problems? (Cont’d)
Make a newNRSRO
Repealing law legal exemptions will mitigate undue reliance on ratings
Re-Thinking Reg FD – The SEC should repeal the NRSRO exemption from fair
disclosure rules that currently allow rating agencies access to issuers’ material non-
public information
Investors justified their over-reliance on ratings in large part on account of
NRSRO information advantages. Repeal of the SEC’s Reg FD exemption would
reduce reliance premised on information asymmetries
NRSROs – monopolized ratings, became NRSROs – will “call ‘em like they see
an essential participant in underwriting ‘em” and will be completely removed from
process which was corrupted by the the structuring and underwriting process
success fee payment scheme
Investor Pay Research – creates
Investor Pay Research – “Investor Pays” opportunity for “Investor Pays” ratings
ratings model is virtually nonexistent and research to develop as non-NRSRO
analysts will be permitted to publish pre-
offering and during the blackout period
8
How Should Ratings Agencies Be Compensated?
9
What Are the Impacts of Our Proposed Changes?
Investors – had no impact on NRSRO Investors – will help allocate ratings fees,
compensation closer to an “Investor Pays” model
Disclaimer
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management,
L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in this presentation are based on
publicly available information.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and
projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical and
anticipated performance of certain assets, and the values of assets and
liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are
inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other
uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as
to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or
projections or with respect to any other materials herein.
This presentation and the information contained herein is not a
recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or
changes to the analyses contained in this presentation.
1
Not for Public Distribution
f Low valuation
f Forced Sellers
f Out-of-favor
2
Not for Public Distribution
f Forced sellers
A large number of distressed transactions
f Out-of-favor
Currently, this is a somewhat shunned asset class
3
Not for Public Distribution
5
Not for Public Distribution
What Happened?
Not for Public Distribution
More
Leverage /
More
Freely
Buyers
Available
Credit Increasing
Asset
9 Relaxed lending
standards
Values
9 Financial
“innovation”
9 CDO Demand
Decreasing
Defaults
Source: “Who’s Holding the Bag?,” PSCM, May 2007
7
Not for Public Distribution
Leverage Increased
Source: Standard & Poor’s, and “Who’s Holding the Bag?,” PSCM, May 2007
8
Not for Public Distribution
Financial “Innovation”
The popularity of Interest Only and Negative Amortization loans grew rapidly
35%
30% 29%
25%
25% 23%
20%
15%
10%
6%
5% 4%
2%
1%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
9
Not for Public Distribution
Facilitated by Rating
Agencies and Bond
Insurers
Source: Thompson Financial, Deutsche Bank, “Who’s Holding the Bag?,” PSCM, May 2007
10
Not for Public Distribution
Between January 2001 and June 2006 home prices rose at a 13% CAGR
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
Valuation
Not for Public Distribution
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
178
180
170
160
150
134 137
140 134 133
130
127 125 126 127 128 124 128
122 120
117 117
120
109 109 110
100
80
60
89
90
98
99
00
01
91
02
92
93
94
95
96
97
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: National Association of Realtors
¹Affordability = Median Income/Qualifying Income
14
Not for Public Distribution
The breakeven appreciation rate for rental equivalent value is the best since the 1970s
Forced Sellers
Not for Public Distribution
Long-term the foreclosure crisis is good for housing. Over-priced and over-
leveraged homes will be transitioned to new, stable owners at more reasonable
prices and on more favorable financing terms
Source: Deutsche Bank, “Whither the distressed inventory flood” 17
Not for Public Distribution
Short Sales
Buyers benefit when conventional sellers compete with distressed sales. Las
Vegas is an extreme example, where distressed and non-distressed sale prices
have nearly converged
Financing
Not for Public Distribution
Mortgage rates have fallen to historically low levels. Fixed 30-year rates are
now below 4.5% for the first time in the history of the Freddie Mac lender survey
19%
17%
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1973 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Source: Freddie Mac 22
Not for Public Distribution
23
Not for Public Distribution
f GSE and FHA mortgages are now >90% of the origination market
f The Fed has purchased more than one trillion dollars of Mortgage
Backed Securities
24
Not for Public Distribution
Our Assumptions:
Conventional Loan Transaction Costs
Down Payment 20% Closing Costs (% of Purchase Price) 2%
Mortgage 30yr Fixed Rate Selling Fees (% of Sale Price) 6%
Interest Rate 4.40%
Annual Fees
FHA Loan Property Taxes (% of Home Value) 1.50%
Down Payment 3.5% Maint. + Insurance (% of Home Value) 2.00%
Mortgage 30yr Fixed Rate Annual expenses grow with home appreciation
Interest Rate 4.25%
Upfront Mtge Insurance (Financed) 1.00% Tax Rate
Annual Mtge Insur. Premium (First 5yrs) 0.90% Income Tax Rate 25%
Rent
Implied rent grows with home appreciation
Holding Period
10 Years
25
Not for Public Distribution
Conventional FHA
If the borrower has the opportunity to refinance at better rates, returns would be even higher
27
Not for Public Distribution
If the borrower has the opportunity to refinance at better rates, returns would be even higher
28
Not for Public Distribution
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5% Household
growth is
3.0%
cyclically
2.5% depressed
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
Source: US Census Bureau
30
Not for Public Distribution
Homeownership (% of households)
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Source: US Census
31
Not for Public Distribution
Projected Long-Term Demand for New Housing Units (single and multi-family)
Household
Formation
Growth needed to
maintain constant
vacancy rate
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, “Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections”
¹Applies 66% to all figures excluding: Vacant Rental (0%) and Second Homes (100%)
33
Not for Public Distribution
In the short-term, for-sale homes and shadow inventory will weigh on home
prices. This provides an opportunity to buy a long-term investment at an
attractive valuation in a market facing short-term distress
-25%
Price 14
-20%
12
-15%
10
-10%
8
-5%
Supply
0%
6
5%
4
10%
2
15%
20% 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
35
Source: US Census Bureau
Not for Public Distribution
It can take three to seven years to get land permitted in many of the more
desirable markets¹
Sources: Deustche Bank, “Builder Community Analysis”
¹Toll Brothers Management 36
Not for Public Distribution
Housing starts have fallen sharply and are now lower than at any time in at least
the past 50 years. Starts today are less than half of average long-term demand
3,000
2,500
Projected LT
Demand:
2,000 1.1-1.25mm new
single family
homes per year
1,500
1,000 Inventory
Depletion
500
New Supply
0
Growth Will be
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Slow
Source: Chart: US Census Bureau
37 New Home Demand Projections”
¹Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, “Updated 2010-2020 Household and
Not for Public Distribution
Out-of-favor
Not for Public Distribution
The best investments we have made are the ones no one else would touch
“So even at 89 cents a share, it still looks pretty bleak out there for
General Growth Shareholders”
- Businessweek, April 2009
“The U.S. housing market is headed for a complete and total nightmare”
- Business Insider, August 2010
“Now They Tell Us: Experts say housing is a lousy investment and it
always will be”
- Yahoo Finance, August 2010
39
Not for Public Distribution
Concluding Thoughts
Not for Public Distribution
Why Now?
41
Not for Public Distribution
Housing Increase in
Catalyst Prices Buyer
Increase Confidence
Decision to
Purchase
42
Not for Public Distribution
43
Not for Public Distribution
f For the vast majority of the 20th century, timber was never considered an
institutional asset class
44
Not for Public Distribution
Appendix
Not for Public Distribution
Source: Beracha and Johnson, “Lessons from Over 30 Years of Buy versus Rent Decision: Is the American Dream Always Wise?”
47
Linked to Win
September 14, 2011
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of instruments of state, governments and other interested parties
discussed in the presentation that could lead those constituents and other market participants to disagree
with Pershing Square’s conclusions. This presentation and the information contained herein is not investment
advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, currencies or other investment
instruments. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, historical and anticipated events, access to and changes in capital markets and the
values of currencies, assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
political, regulatory, economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been
included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations or warranties, express or implied, are made as to
the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other
materials herein and Pershing Square disclaims any liability with respect thereto. Actual results may vary
materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates own U.S. dollars, Hong Kong dollars and options on the
Hong Kong dollar. Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling –
securities and other financial instruments. It is likely that there will be developments in the future that cause
Pershing Square to change its position regarding such investments. Pershing Square may buy, sell, cover or
otherwise change the form of these investments for any or no reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any
duty to any recipient hereof or to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including,
without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
Structure of the Presentation
I. The Context
4
GDP Growth – U.S.
5
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
GDP – U.S.
________________________________________________ 6
Source: Bloomberg.
Unemployment – U.S.
________________________________________________ 7
Source: Bloomberg.
Inflation – U.S.
Inflation has picked up, but seems to have leveled off and is forecast to
decrease
________________________________________________ 8
Source: Bloomberg.
Home Prices – U.S.
U.S. Home Prices are down 32% from peak and have not recovered
Home Price Index (Case Shiller Home Price 10-City Index)
________________________________________________ 9
Source: Bloomberg.
U.S. Monetary Policy Today
________________________________________________ 10
Source: Based on the latest available Bloomberg data.
U.S. Monetary Policy Will Remain Extremely Accommodative:
________________________________________________ 11
Source: Press, Release August 9, 2011 – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110809a.htm).
Compare with Economy X
12
GDP Growth – Economy X
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
GDP – Economy X
________________________________________________ 14
Source: Based on Bloomberg data (Cumulative Last 4Q’s).
Unemployment – Economy X
________________________________________________ 15
Source: Bloomberg.
Home Prices – Economy X
Since January 2006, home prices are up ~90%
________________________________________________ 16
Source: “Centaline Property Centa-City Leading HK Index” - Bloomberg.
Inflation – Economy X
Inflation is accelerating and is now nearly 6%
Underlying Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)
________________________________________________
Source: “Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government.
(http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/prices_household_expenditure/index_cd_B1060001_dt_detail.jsp).
17
Economy X’s Monetary Policy Mirrors the US’s
Despite surging growth and inflation, Economy X’s monetary policy mirrors
that of the United States with a near-zero interest-rate policy and large
amounts of money printing
Economy X U.S.
________________________________________________
Source: Based on the latest available Bloomberg data. 18
Press Release, August 22, 2011 – Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/press_release/press_releases_on_statistics/index.jsp?sID=2798&sSUBID=19062&displayMode=D).
Who is Economy X?
19
Economy X = Hong Kong
Commitment
________________________________________________ 22
Source: “Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System” – Hong Kong Monetary Authority, p.34 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/public/hkmalin/index.htm).
Sterling Link Adopted (1935)
23
The Sterling Peg (1935-1972)
Sterling’s role as an international reserve currency was displaced by the USD
after WWII
Denomination of Foreign Currency Reserves 1950-1982
Sterling
________________________________________________
Source: “The Decline of Sterling: Managing the Retreat of an International Currency, 1945-1992” - Catherine R. Schenk, p.23.
Sterling Link Abandoned (1972)
In 1949 and in 1967, Sterling was devalued. Shortly after the 1967 devaluation,
the HKD was revalued by 10% against Sterling to preserve its purchasing
power
HKD/USD (inverted)
________________________________________________ 25
Source: “Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System” - Hong Kong Monetary Authority, p.34 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/public/hkmalin/index.htm).
Sterling Link Abandoned (1972)
In 1971, Nixon gave up the gold standard and devalued the USD. In 1972,
Sterling broke its USD peg. Two weeks later HK announced a USD link
HKD/USD (inverted)
1971 USD
devaluation
________________________________________________ 26
Source: “Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System” - Hong Kong Monetary Authority, p.34 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/public/hkmalin/index.htm).
First Dollar Link (1972-1974)
27
The Float (1974-1983)
Until 1982, the Float worked reasonably well despite HK’s lacking a formal
central bank. The commercial banks were made responsible for managing
the system, leaving the HKD vulnerable to a crisis
HKD/USD
HKD Weakness
28
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
The Float Ends in Crisis (1983)
In September 1983, negotiations over the UK’s agreement to transfer control of
HK to the Mainland sparked a crisis of confidence in the HKD, leading to bank
runs and food shortages. A rapid decline in the HKD ensued
HKD/USD
________________________________________________ 29
Source: Bloomberg.
The Float Ends in Crisis (1983) Cont.
________________________________________________ 30
Source: “Hong Kong SAR’s Monetary and Rate Challenges” - Catherine Schenk, p149-50.
The Dollar Link (1983 – Present)
To stem the panic, authorities adopted a currency board and a USD peg.
While the initial workings of the currency board were basic, the strength of
the USD and the simplicity of the currency board made it credible
HKD/USD
HKD Weakness
Floating Rate
________________________________________________ 31
Source: Bloomberg.
Why Did HK Choose the USD as an Anchor in 1983?
________________________________________________
33
Source: “Stabilization of the Exchange Rate” (http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/1983.pdf).
HK Has Been Responsive to Change
34
III. The Current State of Play
Hong Kong
Population: 7.1mm
GDP by Sector: Finance
26%, Trade 27%, Public
Administration 18%,
Transportation 9%
Economic Freedom:
Ranked #1 for 17
consecutive years by the
Heritage Foundation
History:
•British colonial rule (1842-
1997)
•Reversion to Chinese
sovereignty (1997)
•“One Country, Two
Systems” (1997-2047)
•Harmonization with the
Mainland (2047 - Onward)
________________________________________________
Source: “Hong Kong Yearbook 2010” - Information Service Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, p.49 (http://www.yearbook.gov.hk/2010/en/index.html).
Picture - (http://www.expatify.com/hong-kong/navigating-the-residential-neighborhoods-of-hong-kong.html).
36
The Hong Kong Economic Miracle
Hong Kong’s real GDP has grown 21x over the last 50 years. This success
is a product of its unique location and successful economic policy
Real GDP ($HKD mm, 2005 dollars)
________________________________________________
Source: “National Income and Balance of Payments” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 32.
HK’s Currency Regime is Tremendously Flexible
39
The LERS
f Since 1983, the LERS has kept the HKD pegged to the
USD at a rate of ~7.80 HKD/USD
Currency Board Sells HKD at 7.75 Currency Board Buys HKD at 7.85
America’s trade deficit has grown enormously since 1983. Funding such
deficits requires large corresponding capital inflows
Sustainable limit¹
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 43
¹ “Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates” - Peterson Institute for International Economics, p.3.
Hong Kong’s Trade Surplus
Hong Kong’s large trade surplus reflects its position as a global trading and
financial services center, as well as the relative cheapness of its currency
________________________________________________ 44
Source: “National Income and Balance of Payments” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 42.
America’s Debt Crisis
Deficit/GDP (%)
________________________________________________ 45
Source: Bloomberg.
America’s Debt Crisis – The US is No Longer AAA
America’s fiscal position has worsened considerably since 1983. S&P recently
downgraded the U.S., citing poor leadership from Washington in solving the
U.S.’s serious budget problems
Debt/GDP (%)
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 46
Treasury Direct (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm).
Hong Kong’s Fiscal Health is Solid
HK Surplus (% of GDP)
________________________________________________
Source: Surplus - “Public Account, Money and Finance” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 192.
Nominal GDP - “National Income and Balance of Payments” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 32.
47
HK’s Fiscal Health is Strong – 2010 S&P AAA Upgrade
HK has built a USD $77bn foreign currency fiscal reserve, or $294bn (~126% of
trailing GDP) including the funds backing the currency board and other assets
________________________________________________
Source: Foreign Currency Assets - Bloomberg (Adjusted for HKD). 48
Nominal GDP - “National Income and Balance of Payments” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 32.
Evolving American Monetary Policy
Since the recent financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has struggled to
stimulate the US economy, resorting to massive quantitative easing and
promises of extended ultra-low interest rates
Fed Balance Sheet (Billion) Fed Funds (%)
QE II
________________________________________________ 49
Source: Bloomberg.
Persistent US Dollar Weakness
Accommodative monetary policy, a weak economy and large fiscal and
trade deficits have driven the USD lower and the HKD with it
Trade-Weighted Nominal USD Index
________________________________________________ 50
Source: “Nominal Major Currency Index” - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/default.htm).
“The success of a currency board arrangement,
and its acceptability to local people and
businesses, depend to a considerable extent on the
anchor currency being reasonably stable.”
________________________________________________ 51
Source: “Hands On, Hands Off?: The Nature and Process of Economic Policy in Hong Kong” - Tony Latter, p.75.
Links with China are growing
52
Trade Links with China are Growing
Hong Kong’s trade with America has fallen as a percentage of total trade, while
trade with China is booming
53
________________________________________________
Source: “External Trade“ - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 60.
Monetary Links with Beijing are Growing
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 54
¹RBS, June 22, 2011
The USD Peg Has Materially Reduced
the Market Value of the HKD
55
HKD – Trade-Weighted Value
Dragged down by a weak USD, the HKD has lost ~35% of its value on a real
(inflation-adjusted) trade-weighted basis over the last ten years
China Begins
Revaluation
________________________________________________ 56
Source: “BIS Real Effective Exchange Rates” - Bank of International Settlements, Broad Index (http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/index.htm).
Yuan Strengthening Pressures HKD Lower
HKD’s trade-weighted value will continue to fall as China, HK’s largest trading
partner, steadily strengthens its own undervalued currency. The Yuan’s
strengthening recently accelerated after the July U.S. credit downgrade
Yuan and HKD/USD
HKD Weakness
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 57
¹ “China will stick to gradual appreciation of Yuan: Wen” - Economic Times (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-03-15/news/28691614_1_wen-jiabao-growth-rate-exchange-rate).
Valuation Summary
Model % Undervalued (Multi‐Lateral)
Decline in Real Trade-Weighted Value - Last 10yrs 54%
Goldman Sachs DEER Model 26%
Barclays PPP Model 33%
Undervaluation 26% ‐ 54%
% Undervalued:
% Undervalued = (7.80/Fair Value) -1
________________________________________________
Source: “Economic Research: GS DEER” - Goldman Sachs, Q2 2011 Trade Weighted Misalignment.
“Currency valuation from a macro perspective” - Barclays Capital, June 14, 2011, p.3. 58
“Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange” – Peterson Institute for International Economics, Real Effective Exchange Rate, May 2011.
A Lot Has Changed Since 1983...
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
A Lot Has Changed Since 1983… (Cont.)
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
At the time the peg was introduced, the HK government recognized
the risks of tying HK’s monetary policy to that of the US
________________________________________________
61
Source: “Stabilization of the Exchange Rate” (http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/1983.pdf).
Impact of the Peg on HK
Inflation – A growing concern
Consumer price inflation in Hong Kong is accelerating
________________________________________________ 63
Source: “Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government.
Asset Bubbles Building - Residential Real Estate
HK Residential Price Index (Centaline Property Centa-City Leading Hong Kong Index)
222%
Increase
________________________________________________ 64
Source: Bloomberg.
Asset Bubbles Building - Residential Real Estate
________________________________________________ 65
Source: “Hong Kong Property” - Citi, May 2011, p.51.
Asset Bubbles Building - Commercial Real Estate
Prices in Hong Kong’s commercial real estate market are increasing rapidly
________________________________________________
Source: “Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report - March 2011” - Hong Kong Economy, HK Commercial Price Index , p. 38 (http://www.hkeconomy.gov.hk/en/reports/index.htm).
1 CBRE Data – Prepared for Pershing Square.
66
How the USD Link Contributes
to Inflation
How Does the Peg Cause Inflation
69
The Monetary Costs of Intervention
In 2008 and 2009, attracted by its safe-haven status and undervaluation,
investors flooded into HKD, pushing the rate to 7.75 and forcing the HKMA
to print money to defend the strong side of the band
HKD/USD
Strong-side
Intervention
Strong-side Intervention Level
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 70
The Monetary Costs of Intervention (Cont.)
As a result of strong side intervention, HK’s Monetary Base increased HKD
$671bn or ~200% over two years. HK has effectively no control over the size of
its Monetary Base
Monetary Base (HKD million)
Strong-side
Intervention
________________________________________________ 71
Source: “Monthly Statistical Bulletin - Table 1.1” - Hong Kong Monetary Authority, September 5, 2011 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/statistics/msb/index.htm).
Rapid Credit Growth
Growth in base money supply has contributed to HK having one of the fastest
rates of credit growth in the world
________________________________________________ 72
Source: “Overheating Emerging Markets: Temperature Gauge” - The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/overheating-emerging-markets-0).
The Strong Side Defense Risks Further Money Printing
74
Tied to U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates
Arbitrageurs take advantage of the peg and keep Hong Kong short-term
rates (HIBOR) in line with LIBOR, irrespective of the suitability of such
rates for Hong Kong
________________________________________________ 75
Source: Bloomberg.
High Negative Real Interest Rates Today
Interest-rate parity with the US means Hong Kong suffers frequently from
inappropriately high and low real interest rates
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 76
“Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Underlying Inflation.
Diminished Purchasing Power
77
Rising Cost of Imports
Unable to revalue higher, Hong Kong’s weak currency has led to a large
increase in the cost of imports, particularly in the critical food sector
HKD Weakness
its food, mainly from China
________________________________________________
Source: “Nominal Effective Exchange Rate” – Bloomberg. 78
“External Trade “ - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Table 76.
Mainland Tourists Flocking to HK
Partly attracted to HK by the cheap HKD, visitors from the Mainland are
flocking to HK, pressuring local prices upward
________________________________________________ 79
Source: “Half - Yearly Economic Report” - Hong Kong SAR Government, p.111 (http://www.hkeconomy.gov.hk/en/pdf/er_11q2.pdf).
Home Price Inflation Rises with HKD Undervaluation
Mainland Chinese home buyers are taking advantage of an undervalued HKD.
30% to 40% of luxury new home sales are to Mainland buyers
HKD Weakness
________________________________________________ 80
Source: Bloomberg.
Consumer Price Inflation Rises with HKD Undervaluation
HKD Weakness
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg. 81
“Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index” - Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government, Underlying Inflation .
HK’s Inflation Problem Will Likely Get Worse
f Broad money supply (M2) has not yet grown to reflect the
full impact of the massive 2008/2009 Monetary Base
expansion
Countries were
measured across six
different economic
indicators of
overheating
Inflation
GDP Growth
Employment
Credit
Interest
Current Account
________________________________________________ 83
Source: “Overheating Emerging Markets: Temperature Gauge” - The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/overheating-emerging-markets-0).
Growing Social Risks
Social Consequences of Inflation
The Elderly
f Value of their savings is eroded by inflation
The Poor
f Do not have the savings to absorb price shocks
The Rich
f While some rich get richer speculating on real estate with low-
cost credit, their global purchasing power deteriorates
85
Hong Kong’s Wealth Gap
Hong Kong’s rich-poor gap is Asia’s widest according to UN data
________________________________________________ 86
Source: Pictures - Zoe Li, William McCallum, Christopher DeWolf (http://jmsc.hku.hk/hkstories/content/view/659/8786/) and (http://www.lcscapes.com/HK-VerticalHousing/LC-HK_VerticalHousing.html).
Beijing Has Taken Notice of HK’s Inequality
In 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called on the Chief Executive of Hong
Kong to address “deep rooted contradictions in Hong Kong” in reference
to Hong Kong’s persistent and troubling wealth gap.
Gini Coefficient (2007)
45.0
40.0
The Gini Coefficient is a
35.0
Measure of Wealth Inequality
30.0
25.0
20.0
Japan
Norway
Republic
Germany
France
Switzerland
Australia
Kingdom
Italy
Zealand
States
United
Hong Kong
Czech
United
New
More Inequality
________________________________________________
87
Source: “Human Development Report 2009” - United Nation Development Programme, p.195 (http://hdr.undp.org/en/contacts/about/undp/).
Flat Real Wages
Gains from economic growth have not been evenly spread. Average wages
have been flat for many years despite very low unemployment and strong
productivity growth
________________________________________________
Source: “Real Wages” - Bloomberg. 88
“Census and Statistics Department” Hong Kong SAR Government, Productivity Index, table 103.
Housing Affordability is Squeezing the Middle Class
HK is one of the least affordable places in the world. With the home ownership
rate at only ~53%, home price appreciation only benefits a small percentage of
the population
12
NYC Housing is nearly
10 twice as Affordable as
Hong Kong’s
8
0
Vancouver
Toronto
Francisco
Hong Kong
Honolulu
London
San Diego
Montreal
Sydney
New York
Los Angeles
San
________________________________________________ 89
Source: “7th Annual Demographic International Housing Affordability Survey: 2011” - Performance Urban Planning, p.10.
Apartment Rents Are Among the Highest in the World
In 2010, Hong Kong was the third most expensive market for two bedroom
rental apartments, up from ninth place in 2009
World’s 20 most expensive locations to rent a two bedroom apartment
________________________________________________ 90
Source: “15% Rental Increase Makes Singapore 5th Most Expensive Locations Globally” - ECA International (http://www.eca-international.com/news/press_releases/show_press_release?ArticleID=7309).
A high-level Beijing official has expressed concern that the
housing situation may become politically destabilizing:
-Wang Guangya
Director of Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State
Council of the People’s Republic of China
________________________________________________
91
Source: “Wang Guangya Talking About Housing Market When Visiting HK: Housing Issues May Become a Political Issue if Inappropriately Deal With” – June 15, 2011 (translation).
Social Unrest – Pressure for Change
Tens of thousands of people are not 10,000 people protested against inflation Several organizations
satisfied with the level of political freedom (prices of food and housing) in March protested against the
in Hong Kong on July 1st, 2010 2011 dominance of property
developers and high prices in
May 2011
________________________________________________
Source: Picture - BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10480116).
Picture - The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/03/protests_hong_kong). 92
Picture - Macau Daily Times (http://www.macaudailytimes.com.mo/china/25180-residents-protest-high-property-prices.html).
More…Social Unrest
This year, 218,000 people, the most since the massive 2003 civil liberty
protests, marched in Hong Kong's annual July 1st rally
“They aren’t happy with the fact that they do not see an improvement in
living standards, despite the good economic statistics.”
– Bloomberg July 1st , 2011
________________________________________________ 93
Source: Pictures - Seattle Pi (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Marchers-vent-anger-on-Hong-Kong-prices-policies-1448544.php).
Unpopular Government
Despite a surging economy and 3.4% unemployment, the Chief Executive of
Hong Kong has a lower approval rating than President Obama
% Who Would Vote Yes for the Current
Chief Executive? Trade-Weighted Nominal HKD
75%
Approval
Rating
24%
Approval
Rating
Source: Bloomberg.
University of Hong Kong (http://hkupop.hku.hk/english/popexpress/ce2005/vote/poll/datatables.html). 94
Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/149114/obama-close-race-against-romney-perry-bachmann-paul.aspx).
The Call for Change is Growing Louder
Major business publications, prominent investors, local politicians, and
economists have all recently questioned the suitability of the peg
Recent Headlines
________________________________________________ 95
Source: Picture - Hong Kong Business (http://hongkongbusiness.hk/).
Diverse Voices are Calling for Change
Economist “I think it’s a case of a frog boiling in water…It could happen sooner
than people think given the rapid rise in circulation of the currency
[RMB]”³ – Peter Redward, Barclays Economist – October 2010
Analyst “The merits of reform are high and the cost of the relevant option is
low.”4 – James Grant – May 2011
Source: ¹“It’s time to end the HK$ peg” - Hong Kong Business, March 10, 2011.
² Legislative Council Transcript of January 6, 2011 meeting.
³“Hong Kong May have to revalue in 2 years, Barclays says” - Bloomberg Businessweek, October 26, 2010.
96
4 Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, May 2011.
Fiscal and Regulatory Measures Have Been Inadequate
f Rent Relief
f Utility Subsidy
f Cash Handouts
Real Estate Market Intervention is Not Working
For example, the prevalence of cash buyers has reduced the impact of
mortgage LTV caps
HK Residential Price Index
________________________________________________
Source: Bloomberg.
“Hong Kong Property” – Morgan Stanley, September 2, 2011, p.19. 98
“Asian Economics Analyst” – Goldman Sachs, June 23, 2011, p.4.
IV. Our Prediction of What is
Likely to Happen
Reminder
The history demonstrates that Hong Kong has modified its exchange rate
system to address major economic changes
HKD/USD (inverted)
Commitment
________________________________________________ 100
Source: “Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System” – Hong Kong Monetary Authority, p.34 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/public/hkmalin/index.htm).
The only effective way to mitigate inflation and a potential
real estate bubble is to allow the HKD to appreciate
101
There are Four Principal Revaluation Alternatives
Pros:
Full monetary independence
The exchange rate would absorb economic shocks
Cons:
Large trade flows make it difficult for the monetary
authority to manage money supply
A floating exchange rate could be volatile
HK had a bad experience when it allowed its currency to
float between 1974 and 1983
103
Alternative Two – Peg to a Trade-Weighted Basket
Pros:
Monetary policy would more closely match that of its
trading partners
Reduces HK’s real exchange rate volatility
Singapore has successfully used this approach
Cons:
A basket is less transparent and more complicated than
the Peg
The average interest rates of HK’s trade partners is low
today, which would mean continued low HK rates
A basket introduces more discretion as trade weights can
be adjusted and are subjective, increasing the risk of
politicizing monetary policy
104
Alt. Three – A Direct or Basket RMB Link is Inevitable
________________________________________________
Source: “Yuan Will Be Fully Convertible by 2015, Chinese Officials Tell EU Chamber” – Bloomberg, September 8, 2011 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/yuan-to-be-fully-convertible-by-2015-eu-chamber.html).
“China Yuan Likely Convertible by 2015” – Thompson Reuters – September 9, 2011. 106
The extremely divergent economic characteristics of HK
and the US make the status quo unsustainable,
destructive, and a distortion to the HK economy
107
We believe the HK government will repeg the HKD at a
stronger exchange rate to the USD while leaving the LERS
intact
108
Why Does This Make Sense?
110
Considerations
f Citizens:
The purchasing power of savings would instantly rise
The cost of food imports (~30% of the poorest half’s spending)¹ would drop
immediately
Real estate appreciation would moderate and rents should stabilize over time
f The Banks:
HKMA data show that banks would not suffer large FX or loan losses on a
revaluation²
f The HKMA:
Has sufficient foreign reserves to ensure that the Monetary Base is covered
f Mainland China:
A revaluation could be seen as evidence that HK is addressing its social divide
and political tensions
________________________________________________
Source: ¹ “Half-yearly Hong Kong Economic Report 2011” – Hong Kong SAR Government, p. 97.
² “Foreign Currency Position” and “Asset Quality of Retail Banks” – Hong Kong Monetary Authority (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/statistics/msb/index.htm).
V. Investment Opportunity
Three Ways to Make Money
117
HKD Call Options
Option Terms
Notional $ 1,000,000,000 $ 1,000,000,000 $ 1,000,000,000
Strike (HKD/USD rate) 7.80 7.50 7.00
Premium (% of notional) 0.83% 0.57% 0.27%
Premium Dollars (USD) $ 8,300,000 $ 5,650,000 $ 2,700,000
Payouts at Exercise (Revaluation to 6.00, +30%)
USD Received $ 1,300,000,000 $ 1,250,000,000 $ 1,166,666,667
USD Spent (notional) 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000
Payoff $ 300,000,000 $ 250,000,000 $ 166,666,667
________________________________________________
118
Source: Indicative broker quote September 8, 2011.
HKD Call Options are Cheap
The HKD options market implies that the probability of a revaluation is
extremely remote. We think a ~30% revaluation is likely, giving investors a
~44x payout on one-year 7.50 strike options
70.0x
60.0x
50.0x
40.0x
30.0x
20.0x
10.0x
.0x
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
% Revaluation
119
The Market is Mispricing this Option
f Because of the peg, HKD/USD volatility is very low
121
VI. Why Now?
Why Now? – Benefits Outweigh the Cost
Source: ¹ “Foreign Currency Position” and “Mortgage Survey Results”– Hong Kong Monetary Authority (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/statistics/msb/index.htm).
Why Now? – 2012 Election
The March 2012 HK Chief Executive election increases the chances
of a near-term revaluation
Incoming politicians are often most bold when they first take
office
________________________________________________
Source: ¹ “Previewing the Political Year Ahead: Article 23” – Suzanne Pepper (http://chinaelectionsblog.net/hkfocus/?p=168).
Revaluing Now Mitigates the Financial Risk to the HKMA
Pre-Intervention Post-Intervention
Leverage: 75%
Leverage: 56%
127
The principal argument against a revaluation is that it
might harm the HKMA’s credibility. We believe this is
false for two reasons:
128
Some observers have suggested a revaluation would be
inconsistent with the HKMA’s public statements
129
However, an upward revaluation was explicitly
contemplated in 1983 when the LERS was introduced:
________________________________________________
130
Source: “Stabilization of the Exchange Rate” (http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/1983.pdf).
A peg depends on confidence and credibility. Any hint of
devaluation would compromise the integrity of the link:
________________________________________________
131
Source: “Stabilization of the Exchange Rate” (http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/1983.pdf).
As such, anytime observers have questioned the link, the
HKMA has issued a prompt statement to quell speculation
________________________________________________ 132
Sources: “Linked Exchange Rate System” – Hong Kong Monetary Authority, August 2011 (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/insight/20110815e.htm).
In 2002, facing SARS, deflation, and budget deficits the
then Financial Secretary strongly defended the peg
publically:
“We have no plans to change the peg. One of the
reasons the peg remains and people are confident
about the Hong Kong dollar is that it has not
changed in the last 19 years”
– Antony Leung, Financial Secretary (2001-2003) – Nov. 2002
________________________________________________
133
Source: “Financial Secretary Transcript” - Press Release, November 23, 2002 (http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200211/23/1123063.htm).
Behind the scenes…
________________________________________________ 134
Sources: “Hong Kong's Peg Admission May Hurt Its Future Defense” – Bloomberg, June 8, 2007 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akb5SpAzhFKg&refer=asia).
We also know from a document WikiLeaks released
August 30th, 2011 that in 2006 a float was seriously
considered by members of an important HK government
commission:
“Numerous commission [HK’s Commission on
Strategic Development – One of the HK
government’s most prominent] members who, in
Fung’s words, ‘have the ear of senior officials’ are
arguing that the HKD-USD peg should be floated
shortly after the Chinese RMB surpasses the HKD
in value.”
Internal US Treasury Memo, “Hong Kong Dollar Peg’s Future Under Consideration by
Government Advisory Body” – April 2006
________________________________________________ 135
Sources: Wikileaks, August 30, 2011 (http://wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06HONGKONG1383.html).
A prominent member of the HKMA committee responsible
for advising on the peg suggests a revaluation could
happen when the market least expects:
-Shu-ki Tsang
Academic Economist and HKMA Advisory Board Member,
Currency Board Sub-Committee
________________________________________________
136
Source: “Commitment to Exit Strategies from a CBA” – Hong Kong Baptist University (http://sktsang.computancy.com/attrachment/Tsang20000506.pdf).
We have every reason to believe HK decision makers
will approach the HKD peg question with the same
diligence and rationality they have used in the past
137
Economic and Monetary Policy Making in HK
139
In Sum:
+
A highly undervalued option
= An extraordinary investment opportunity
Q&A
A Homespun Fortune
October 18, 2011
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in this presentation that could lead
these companies to disagree with Pershing Square’s conclusions. This presentation and the information
contained herein is not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies discussed in this
presentation, access to capital markets, market conditions and the values of assets and liabilities. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties
and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or
implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with
respect to any other materials herein and Pershing Square disclaims any liability with respect thereto. Actual
results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates are invested in Fortune Brands Home & Security, Inc.
(“FBHS”) common stock and cash settled derivative financial instruments based on the price of FBHS
common stock. Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading – buying and selling –
securities and financial instruments. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause
Pershing Square to change its position regarding FBHS. Pershing Square may buy, sell, cover or otherwise
change the form of its investment in FBHS for any reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to
provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the manner or
type of any Pershing Square investment.
1
Fortune Brands Home & Security
Manufacturer of:
Ticker: “FBHS”
Faucets
Recent stock Kitchen and bath cabinets
price: $13 (1)
Security and storage products
Windows and doors
Plumbing
#1 Faucet brand in North America
Stable business driven by replacement
demand and “low ticket” remodeling projects
Secular Winner…
Industry leader with significant scale and strong market positions
Cyclical growth will not require capital investment above normal levels
Platform Business
Highly fragmented industry is ripe for consolidation
4
Investment Highlights
Attractive Valuation
Current valuation assumes minimal housing recovery over the next five years
Immense upside potential
If housing starts improve by 2016, stock is worth ~$18 to $27 today, depending
on the strength of recovery
Midpoint of valuation analysis is ~$22 per share today, up about 70%(1)
Minimal downside
If housing starts don’t improve, FBHS can still shrink capacity to
get to an attractive level of profitability
Commentary Financials
Manufactures faucets, $ in millions
remodeling expenditure – an
affordable way to improve the
look of the bathroom/kitchen
Commentary Financials
$ in millions
Manufactures Masterlock Security & Storage FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
padlocks and Waterloo storage Revenue $571 $495 $520
products Growth (13)% 5%
EBIT $59 $42 $61
Margin 10.3 % 8.4 % 11.7 %
Historically stable demand in
core padlock market % of FBHS Revenues 15% 16% 16%
% of FBHS pre-corp EBIT 17% 29% 25%
Commentary Financials
$ in millions
Manufactures fiberglass and Windows & Doors FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
steel residential and patio door Revenue $668 $551 $601
systems and vinyl-framed Growth (18)% 9%
EBIT ($17) ($19) $21
windows Margin (2.6)% (3.4)% 3.4 %
10
FBHS: Margins Significantly Depressed
Consolidated EBIT margins are currently at ~5%, well below peak levels
of 14% reached in 2006.
Memo:
Housing Starts 1,812 1,342 900 555 586 569
Growth (26)% (33)% (38)% 6% (3)%
11
Segments: A Tale of Two Cities
Manufacturing Plants 48 53 64 56 47 41
Y-o-Y Change 10 % 21 % (13)% (16)% (13)%
Change Since Peak (13)% (27)% (36)%
13
…But Kept Enough Capacity for a Recovery
14
What If Capacity Were Reduced Further?
reduction
Capacity
Windows Doors 19 % 3.4 % 8%
Security & Storage 16 % 11.7 % 12 %
Segment 7.6 % 11 %
Corp. Expense as % of Rev (2.0)% (1.4)%
Total 5.6 % 10 %
15
Secular Winner: Growing in the Downturn
The Company has significantly less financial leverage than its peers
allowing it to acquire smaller building products companies that are
currently operating at trough levels of profitability
FBHS:
$520mm of total debt
LTM EBITDA - Capex:
$194mm
No liquidity concerns
(1) Peer average based on Moody’s. Peers include Armstrong, Lennox, Masco, Mohawk, Owens Corning, Stanley Black &
Decker and Whirlpool. FBHS leverage based on 12/31/2010 pro forma metrics.
17
Housing Market Review
Long-term Housing Market Drivers
Consumer confidence
Unemployment—at the local market level
Credit availability
Stability in home prices
Note: This page is taken from FBHS investor presentation dated September 6, 2011
19
Historical Housing Starts: 1965 to Present
Housing starts are currently at the lowest levels in the last 40 years and
well below the long term annual average of ~1.5mm
Average
~1.5mm
Source: Bloomberg 20
We are in Year Five of the Housing Recession
Peak:
~2.3mm
Average
~1.5mm
Current: ~0.6mm
Trough: <0.5mm
Source: Bloomberg 21
What a Housing Recovery Might Look Like
We believe that the current level of excess supply is ~2mm to 2.5mm housing
units and normalized housing demand is approximately 1.5mm
22
Repair/Remodel Market Overview
23
Housing Market Summary
FBHS’s market position may improve, given the Company’s skew to more
value-priced products
24
“The only way a correction takes place is to have
household formation exceed new construction by a
significant amount for a significant period of time. We've
had it for quite a while. And when you see these figures
of 500,000 or 600,000, that means we're sopping up
housing inventory. And I don't know exactly when that
hits equilibrium, but it isn't five years from now. I know
that. And I think it actually could be reasonably soon.”
25
Valuation
Upside Case: Housing Recovery
EBITDA: ~$850MM
EBITDA: ~$550MM
~3X LTM
~2X LTM EBITDA
EBITDA: ~$265MM
EBITDA
If housing starts were to stay at depressed levels (~600k) for the longer
term, we believe FBHS could right-size the business to achieve a more
normalized level of profitability
28
Current Trading Multiples
FBHS currently trades ~9.7x LTM EBITDA and ~16.5x LTM cash earnings. If
no recovery occurs, FBHS is trading at ~10x our estimate of cash earnings.
If a recovery occurs, FBHS trades at ~4x to 7x our estimates of cash
earnings, depending on the strength of recovery
No Recovery Recovery
LTM (Cut Capacity) Partial Full
Housing Starts (000s) 569 600 1,000 1,500
Note: EPS and FCF per share based on a 35% normalized tax rate.
29
Valuing FBHS in a Recovery
Total Return
Housing Starts 1.0M 1.3M 1.5M
EBITDA $550 $700 $850
2014 83 % 139 % 196 %
Recovery 2015 92 % 151 % 209 %
Year 2016 101 % 162 % 223 %
2017 111 % 174 % 237 %
IRR
Housing Starts 1.0M 1.3M 1.5M
EBITDA $550 $700 $850
2014 35 % 55 % 72 %
Recovery 2015 24 % 36 % 46 %
Year 2016 19 % 27 % 34 %
2017 16 % 22 % 28 %
Note: Assumes 7x EBITDA exit multiple and includes the value of annual free cash flow generated until exit. Based on R&M CAGR of
2-3%, 3-4%,and 4-6% for housing starts of 1.0m,1.3m, and 1.5m
30
Stock Price at Various Levels of Recovery
Assuming on a housing recovery over the next several years, we believe FBHS is
worth ~$18 to $27 per share today. The midpoint valuation is $22/share today,
which is up ~70% from the recent share price of $13. If the housing market never
recovers, we believe FBHS is still worth nearly $14 per share today
~$27 per share
What FBHS is worth today:
~40% upside
~$14 per share
~8% upside
No Recovery Partial Full Recovery /
(capacity reduction) Recovery Normalized Starts
Housing Starts 0.6M 1.0M 1.5M
Year 2014 2016 2016
EBITDA ($MM) $400 $550 $850
EBITDA Multiple 7x 7x 6.5x
Note: Assumes 157MM shares, $520MM of net debt, and uses a 10% discount rate to discount the future stock price to today. Includes the
value of annual free cash flow generated until exit. 31
Conclusion
32
Waiting for a Bounce
from the Lowe’s
November 8, 2011
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in this presentation that could lead
these companies to disagree with Pershing Square’s conclusions. This presentation and the information
contained herein is not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies discussed in this
presentation, access to capital markets, market conditions and the values of assets and liabilities. Such
statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning
anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties
and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or
implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with
respect to any other materials herein and Pershing Square disclaims any liability with respect thereto. Actual
results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates are invested in Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (“LOW”)
common stock. Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading – buying and selling –
securities and financial instruments. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause
Pershing Square to change its position regarding LOW. Pershing Square may buy, sell, cover or otherwise
change the form of its investment in LOW for any reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to
provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the manner or
type of any Pershing Square investment.
1
Lowe’s (“LOW”)
Lowe’s recent share price of $21.50 is nearly 40% below its peak of ~$35
in February 2007
3
Investment Highlights
Cheap Valuation
f Lowe’s trades at 6.5x depressed EBITDA and less than 13.5x depressed EPS
f Lowe’s EBIT margin currently 7.5% only 70bps higher than its trough in 2009 at 6.8%
f Company believes normalized EBIT margins are 10%
f Company has maintained staffing to provide high service levels and be positioned for a
recovery
4
Investment Highlights (cont’d)
f We expect the Company to buy back $10bn to $13bn of stock from 2012 to 2015
f $23bn gross book value of land and buildings, or ~65% of Lowe’s enterprise value
5
Business Overview
Lowe’s Business Snapshot
One-Stop Shopping
f Home improvement purchases are typically project-oriented (e.g., bathroom remodel)
Consumers buy across categories (paint, plumbing, flooring, etc.) making one-stop
shopping ideal
f Home centers’ big-box layout allows for ~40,000+ SKUs
Product selection can’t be matched by general merchandise retailers
Instant Satisfaction
f Customers can purchase products and take them home from the store immediately
Convenience
f Lowe’s has ~1,750 stores across 50 U.S. states
8
Why Do Consumers Shop Online?
3 Product is relatively high-priced (i.e., sales tax savings are more material)
3 Product is not needed immediately
3 Shipping cost is low
3 Shipping is unlikely to damage the product
3 Professional installation is not needed
3 Item is not purchased as part of a larger project
3 End-user of the product is making the purchasing decision
We believe that the home centers face limited risk from online shopping
because the majority of products they sell do not meet most of these
conditions
9
Home Improvement Retail: Limited Internet Risk
Limited Risk 82 %
Moderate Risk 8%
High Risk 10 %
Note: Limited-Moderate category counts 50% towards limited, 50% towards moderate
10
Lowe’s Financials: Margins Down Significantly
Lowe’s sales/ft² is 25% less than peak levels achieved nearly six years
ago. EBIT margins are ~350bps below peak margins achieved nearly
five years ago
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM
Revenue ($ in B) $43.2 $46.9 $48.3 $48.2 $47.2 $48.8 $48.8
Growth 19 % 9% 3% (0)% (2)% 3% (0)%
11
LOW Outperformed HD for Most of the Last Decade…
Lowe's - Home Depot (2.8)% 2.4 % 6.3 % 3.0 % 1.5 % 3.0 % 2.8 % 1.6 % 1.5 %
Note: Home Depot same-store sales growth figures are for the entire company only, as Home Depot did not consistently disclose U.S.-only
same-store sales growth figures during the period from 2000 to 2008.
12
…But Now LOW is the Underperformer
Lowe's - Home Depot 2.0 % (2.6)% (0.4)% (0.5)% (0.9)% 0.6 % (1.3)% (3.7)% (2.6)% (3.8)%
Memo: Capitalization
Lowe's Home Depot
Stock Price $21.50 $37.00
Diluted Shares 1,328 1,577
Market Cap $28,552 $58,349
Plus: Debt 6,620 10,775
Less: Cash & Investments (1) (1,423) (2,551)
Enterprise Value $33,749 $66,573
Dividend Yield 2.0 % 2.7 % (1) For Lowe’s, Cash & Investments are net of restricted cash balances.
14
Lowe’s Management is Bullish…
Note: This page is taken from Lowe’s investor presentation dated November 30, 2010. Red highlights added for emphasis.
15
…And is Buying Back Stock Aggressively
16
Valuation
Valuation Assumptions
Note: Management targets based on November 2010 analyst day and annualized same-store sales growth reflected management estimates for
2011E to 2015E.
18
Sales/ft²
Sales/ft² is still 25% below 2005 peak levels six years later. We believe
sales/ft2 could increase materially by 2015 and still be meaningfully
below inflation-adjusted peak levels reached in 2005
$328
~$290
~$275
$246 ~$245
In our Mid and High cases, we believe EBIT margins could be ~8.3% to
9.3%. In our Low case, if same-store sales remain flat, we believe Lowe’s
can maintain current EBIT margins through cost reductions
Note: Current gross margins are partially elevated by a favorable mix of higher-margin, lower-ticket
items. As sales recover, we expect a slight gross margin headwind, offset by positive operating
leverage. Management estimates each 1% of same store sales growth above 1% will result in 20bps of
operating expense leverage.
20
Valuing Lowe’s
We believe 2015 EPS will likely be between $2.60 to $3.20. At a 13x P/E, the
total value per share at year end 2014 is $36 to $43. If same-store sales
remain flat for the next several years, year end 2014 total value per share is
$28, driven largely by share repurchases
Note: Based on ~1% annual net unit growth. Includes ~$1.80 of dividends received between 2012 and 2014.
21
Conclusion
22