AN ECONOMIC REPORT

TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

2019
THE STATE’S
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
JANUARY
 AN ECONOMIC REPORT
TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research

PREPARED BY THE

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research

Haslam College of Business
The University of Tennessee
Knoxville, Tennessee

IN COOPERATION WITH THE

Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration

Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development
Tennessee Department of Revenue
and
Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

2019
THE STATE’S
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
JANUARY
CONTRIBUTORS

AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE

AUTHORS

UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research

Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director
William F. Fox, Director
Donald J. Bruce, Professor of Economics
LeAnn Luna, Professor of Accounting
Enda P. Hargaden, Assistant Professor of Economics
Lawrence M. Kessler, Research Assistant Professor
Vickie C. Cunningham, Research Associate
Adrienne M. Sudbury, Graduate Research Assistant

The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group

Kimberly Jensen, Professor of Agricultural Economics
Jamey Menard, Research Leader
Burton English, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture
Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics
David Hughes, Professor of Agricultural Economics
Andrew Muhammad, Professor of Agricultural Economics
Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics
Edward Yu, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics
Emily Greear, Graduate Research Assistant

PROJECT SUPPORT STAFF

UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research
Brittany Blair, Business Manager
Erin Hatfield, Communications Coordinator

The preparation of this report was financed in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee
Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce
Development.

This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with the customary crediting of the source.

UT Publication Authorization Number: R01-1493-327-002-19

ii | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

PREFACE

This 2019 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-third in a
series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in
achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall
economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend
forecasts, are provided in this report.

The quarterly state forecast through the fourth quarter of 2020 and annual forecast through 2028
represent the collective judgment of the staff of the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business
and Economic Research in conjunction with the Quarterly and Annual Tennessee Econometric Models.
The national forecasts were prepared by IHS Markit. Tennessee forecasts, current as of December 2018,
are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter
One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture
section provided by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three presents the
long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four discusses federal tax reform, tariffs and the
implications for labor markets across the state of Tennessee.

The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the
Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and
Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department
of Labor and Workforce Development—is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current
possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors.

Matthew N. Murray
Associate Director and Project Director
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | iii

CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................... 1

1.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................1
Consumption ..................................................................................................................................................3
1.2. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review....................................................................................................................3
Investment.......................................................................................................................................................4
Interest Rates..................................................................................................................................................7
Government Purchases...................................................................................................................................7
International Trade...........................................................................................................................................8
Inflation & Prices.............................................................................................................................................8
The Labor Market..........................................................................................................................................10
Productivity & Wages ....................................................................................................................................10
Consumption.................................................................................................................................................11
1.3. The U.S. Forecast, continued..........................................................................................................................12
The Labor Market..........................................................................................................................................13
Investment and Interest Rates.......................................................................................................................13
Federal Budget..............................................................................................................................................14
International Trade.........................................................................................................................................14
Inflation & Prices...........................................................................................................................................14

1.4. Alternate Scenarios.........................................................................................................................................15

CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK........................................................... 17

2.1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................17
2.2. The Current Economic Environment...............................................................................................................18
Income and Taxable Sales ............................................................................................................................26
Fiscal Update.................................................................................................................................................28
State Finances across the Nation..................................................................................................................29
The Southeastern States and Tennessee.....................................................................................................29
2.3. Short-Term Outlook.........................................................................................................................................32
2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance.....................................................................................................................35
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy..............................................................36
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................36
Agriculture and Primary Forestry...................................................................................................................36
Commodity Market Trends and Outlook........................................................................................................41
US and Tennessee Agricultural Trade Outlook..............................................................................................42
Infrastructure.................................................................................................................................................45
Farmers Markets, CSA’s, Wineries, and the Green Industry.........................................................................45
Financial Indicators for .................................................................................................................................47
Tennessee Farming Industries......................................................................................................................47
Primary Forestry in Tennessee......................................................................................................................48
Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee.................................................................................48
Economic Impacts from the Agri-forestry Industrial Complex........................................................................49
Rural Economies and Well-Being..................................................................................................................50
Governor’s Rural Challenge..........................................................................................................................51
References Used...........................................................................................................................................53

iv | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 CONTENTS

CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK............................................................ 57

3.1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................57
3.2. Nonfarm Employment......................................................................................................................................58
3.3. Unemployment................................................................................................................................................63
3.4. Population and Labor Force............................................................................................................................65
3.5. Income, Earnings and Output.........................................................................................................................70
3.6. Forecast at a Glance.......................................................................................................................................74
3.7. Millennials and Markets...................................................................................................................................74
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................74
Housing.........................................................................................................................................................75
Household Formation and Fertility.................................................................................................................77
Labor Market Engagement............................................................................................................................80
Debt, Savings/Wealth, and Retirement..........................................................................................................81
Transportation and Mobility...........................................................................................................................83
Consumption Patterns...................................................................................................................................84

CHAPTER 4: FEDERAL TAX REFORM AND TENNESSEE............................................................................... 85

4.1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................85
4.2. Overview of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act..................................................................................................86
Corporate Tax Provisions Summary..............................................................................................................86
Individual Tax Provisions Summary...............................................................................................................86
Corporate and General Business Provisions.................................................................................................86
International Provisions.................................................................................................................................87
Noncorporate Provisions...............................................................................................................................87
4.3. Individual Income Tax Effects on the Economy and Behavior.........................................................................88
Individual Provisions......................................................................................................................................88
4.4. Corporate Income Tax Effects on the Economy and Behavior........................................................................89
4.5. Tariffs, International Trade and the Tennessee Economy................................................................................92
The Economic Benefits of Free Trade............................................................................................................92
Trade Statistics for Tennessee.......................................................................................................................93
Trade Policy...................................................................................................................................................95
Tariffs.............................................................................................................................................................98
International Trade Forecast .......................................................................................................................103
4.6. References....................................................................................................................................................104

APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA.......................................................................................................................... 1

Quarterly History Tables...........................................................................................................................................2

Annual History Tables.............................................................................................................................................26

APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA...................................................................................................................... 43

Quarterly Forecast Tables.......................................................................................................................................44

Annual Forecast Tables..........................................................................................................................................68

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | v

CONTENTS

FIGURES AND TABLES

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................... 1

Figure 1.1: GDP Growth was Impressive in 2018.....................................................................................................1

Figure 1.2: U.S. GDP Growth Outpaced International Competitors..........................................................................2

Figure 1.3: The Increased Federal Funds Rate since 2016......................................................................................5

Figure 1.4: Increasing Oil Prices Pose a Threat to the U.S. Economy......................................................................6

Figure 1.5: Actual and Forecasted Change in Public Expenditures.........................................................................7

Figure 1.6: Unemployment is Low by Historical Standards......................................................................................9

Figure 1.7: People with Higher Educational Attainment are Less Likely to be Unemployed.....................................9

Figure 1.8: Consumer Confidence Remains High..................................................................................................11

Figure 1.9: Consumer Debt Continues to Grow......................................................................................................11

Figure 1.10: Savings Rate is Relatively Low...........................................................................................................12

CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK........................................................... 17

Figure 2.1: Digging Out of the Great Recession, Most Sectors of the State Economy Have Fully Recovered......19
Figure 2.2: Two-thirds of all Tennessee Counties Saw Positive Job Growth in the First Quarter of 2018...............19
Figure 2.3: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Sits Slightly Below the Regional Average.......................................20
Figure 2.4: Roughly 75 percent of all Tennessee Counties are Reporting
Unemployment Rates Above the National Average........................................................................................21
Figure 2.5: Tennessee’s Labor Force Participation Rate Begins to Trend Upward but Remains Low ...................21
Figure 2.6: Among Tennesseans, Median Earnings Increase with Educational Attainment...................................22
Figure 2.7: Educational Attainment Rates are Lower in Tennessee ......................................................................23
Figure 2.8: Educational Attainment Rates are Lower for Most of the Southeast Region ......................................24
Figure 2.9: More Tennesseans Suffer from Serious Health Issues ........................................................................25
Figure 2.10: In Tennessee, Obesity and Smoking Rates Are Above the National Average, While the Percentage
with Any Form of Health Care Coverage Is Below .........................................................................................25
Figure 2.11: Per Capita Income in Tennessee is Slightly Above the Southeast Average,
but Well Below the National Average...............................................................................................................26
Figure 2.12: Per Capita Personal Income, 2017.....................................................................................................27
Figure 2.13: Light Vehicle Sales Start to Slow in the U.S. ......................................................................................27
Figure 2.14: Growth in New Building Permits Continues to Slow...........................................................................28
Figure 2.15: The Federal Deficit Will Grow in 2018................................................................................................29
Figure 2.16: Total Tax Revenue Growth in Tennessee was Near the Bottom Among Southeastern States During
the First Three Quarters of Fiscal Year 2018...................................................................................................30
Table 2.1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted, January 2019.....................33
Figure 2.17: Manufacturing Employment in Both Tennessee and the U.S.

Are Still Below Pre-Recession Levels ............................................................................................................34

vi | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 CONTENTS

Figure 2.18: Low Unemployment Rates for the State and the Nation Suggest Full Employment ..........................34

Table 2.2: Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts, 2013-2017.........................................................................................37

Table 2.3: Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production,

and Yield for Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, and Wheat, 2013-2018.......................................................................38

Table 2.4: Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2013-2018*...................................................................39

Table 2.5: Projected Payments for Crops from the Market Facilitation Program.....................................................41

Table 2.6: Tennessee Agricultural Exports, 2017....................................................................................................43

Table 2.7: Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2012-2017......................................47

Table 2.8: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2016...................................................................48

Figure 2.19: Value of Shipments from Tennessee Agri-Forestry, 2010-2016..........................................................49

Figure 2.20: Tennessee Agri-forestry Manufacturing Location Quotients (LQ), 2016.............................................50

Table 2.9: Population, Household Income, Education Level, Unemployment, Poverty, and Food Insecurity Across

Rural County Status, Tennessee.....................................................................................................................51

Table 2.10: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2016.................................................................52

CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK............................................................ 57

Figure 3.1: Nonfarm Employment and Manufacturing Employment Slow and Return to Trend.............................59

Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment Outlook by Broad Sector.................................................................59

Figure 3.2: Tennessee Manufacturing Employment in

Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Tennessee Sees Growth.........................................................................60

Figure 3.3: Alternative Measures of the Unemployment Rate

Have Shown Marked Improvement Since the Great Recession......................................................................63

Figure 3.4: Tennessee Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Unemployment Rates Make Record Gains................64

Figure 3.5: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Will

Sit Below the National Rate Throughout the Long-Term Forecast Horizon.....................................................64

Figure 3.6: Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rates Bottom Out ......................................................................64

Figure 3.7: Middle Tennessee Population Growth Dominates Statewide...............................................................65

Figure 3.8: Tennesseans Increasingly Live in Metropolitan Areas..........................................................................67

Figure 3.9: Regional Economic Prosperity Hinges on Educational Attainment of the Population.........................69

Figure 3.10: Disability Rates Affect Regional Economic Outcomes......................................................................69

Figure 3.11: Tennessee Has the Third Highest Per Capita Personal Income

Among the Southeastern States (2017)..........................................................................................................71

Figure 3.12: Just Three Tennessee Counties Enjoy

per Capita Personal Incomes Greater than the National Average (2017).......................................................71

Figure 3.13: Real GDP per Worker Has Shown Weak Gains Since the Great Recession....................................72

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | vii

CONTENTS

Figure 3.14: Tennessee and U.S. Inflation-Adjusted GDP Slow

as the Economy Confronts the Constraints of Full Employment.....................................................................73

Figure 3.15: Millennials are Renting Rather Than Buying ....................................................................................75

Figure 3.16: Share of Homewoners Under 35 Has Been Falling Since 1982.........................................................76

Figure 3.17: More Young Adults are Living With Parents........................................................................................78

Figure 3.18: Americans are Trending away from Large Families............................................................................79

Figure 3.19: Millennials are the Largest Generation in the Labor Force.................................................................80

Figure 3.20: Millennials are the Most Educated Generation...................................................................................81

Figure 3.21: Average Student Loan Debt Soars for Millennials..............................................................................82

Figure 3.22: More Millennials are Taking out Student Loans..................................................................................83

CHAPTER 4: FEDERAL TAX REFORM AND TENNESSEE............................................................................... 85

Figure 4.1: Dividends and Withdrawals Surged in 2018 Q1...................................................................................90

Figure 4.2: Tennessee Export Statistics.................................................................................................................93

Figure 4.3: Tennessee Import Statistics .................................................................................................................93

Table 4.1: Tennessean’s opinions on free trade......................................................................................................94

Figure 4.4: Merchandise trade among NAFTA countries........................................................................................96

Figure 4.5: Tariffs and Soybean Prices.................................................................................................................100

Figure 4.6: Potential Job loss from Trump Tariffs..................................................................................................102

Figure 4.7: Forecast trade balance in 2019..........................................................................................................103

APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA.......................................................................................................................... 1

Quarterly History Tables...........................................................................................................................................2

Annual History Tables.............................................................................................................................................26

APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA...................................................................................................................... 43

Quarterly Forecast Tables.......................................................................................................................................44

Annual Forecast Tables..........................................................................................................................................68

viii | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE U.S. ECONOMY
The U.S. economy continued to grow strongly
in 2018, with early estimates indicating that Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 3.1 percent
to over $20 trillion. This positive growth continues
the trend in the years since the Great Recession,
marking the ninth year in a row of increasing GDP.
Growth in excess of 3 percent would represent the
largest annual increase since 2005. The past year
started off somewhat sluggishly, with growth of 2.2
percent in the first quarter, before accelerating to
4.2, 3.5, and 2.6 percents in the following quarters.
The mid-year spurt was boosted by Congress’
passage of the Tax Cuts and Job Act (TCJA).
This overhaul of the tax system is discussed in
greater detail in Chapter 4. Many of the reforms,
particularly those related to international corporate
taxation, encouraged shifting and repatriation of
profits earned in previous years. In this sense, some
of the strong 2018 performance represents fiscal
stimulus that was temporary in nature.
Consistent with the increase in GDP, labor
markets continue to improve. The unemployment
rate stands at 3.9 percent, lower than 2017’s rate
of 4.4 percent, and indeed below the long-run
historical average. Unemployment is expected to
continue to fall in 2019, to 3.4 percent. Disposable
incomes rose 4.5 percent, but after accounting for
inflation this change was a more modest 2.8 percent
increase. This improvement is slightly better than
the 2.6 percent inflation-adjusted increase recorded
in 2017. Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.6
percent to 149 million—the same rate of increase
as seen in 2017, but slower than any year since
2013.
The Consumer Price Index, which measures
the cost of many common consumer products, rose
by 2.5 percent. This is above the Federal Reserve’s
target rate of 2 percent, and was likely a factor in
the Fed’s decision to target higher interest rates.
After several years of accommodating monetary
policy, holding rates close to zero, the Federal
Funds Rate rose from 0.7 percent at the start of
2017 to 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Assuming 2019 sees no adverse economic shocks,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
rates are set to increase further.
Spending was buoyant in 2018, consumers
increasing inflation-adjusted Personal Consumption
Expenditures by 2.7 percent. Reflecting the high
consumer confidence of the year, shoppers
increased spending on durable goods by 6.2
percent. Particularly notable increases were
recorded in computers and peripheral equipment
(12 percent) and used trucks (8 percent). Spending
on nondurable goods, such as clothing and
footwear, increased by a more sustainable 2.9
percent over the year, which improves on the
2.1 percent change seen in 2017. Spending on
services—up by 2.1 percent—continued to increase
as it has every year since 2009.
More remarkable than the increases in
consumption were the figures for investment.
Nonresidential Fixed Investment increased by 6.8
percent in 2018—the highest increase since 2014.
The largest single increase was in the mining and
petroleum sector, seeing a 29.8 percent increase.
These increases contributed to a 3.7 percent
increase in industrial production. Exports were
4.3 percent higher over the year, though the 4.9
percent increase in imports ensured the trade deficit
continued to grow.
The narrative and projections for 2019 are
largely positive. GDP is expected to increase by
an impressive 2.7 percent, adding over $1 trillion
to the value of goods and services produced in
the country. Growth will push unemployment
down to 3.4 percent and increase the labor force
to 163.5 million people. The prime age (under 65)
Labor Force Participation Rate is forecast to tick
up slightly to 72.4 percent, and then to 72.8 percent
in 2020, marking the highest rate since the Great
Recession.
Considerable uncertainty, both nationally and
internationally, raise concerns about this narrative.
Internationally, political instability in Syria, the
Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia pose threats to the
reliable supply of natural resources. Domestically,
the temporary fiscal stimulus provided by the TCJA
will dissipate. The longer-term effects of cuts to tax
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | ix
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE U.S. ECONOMY, CONTINUED
rates will persist, causing deficits to increase further.
Given these potential problems, our forecast for
2019 includes an alternative pessimistic scenario
(which is forecast as occurring with 25 percent
probability) wherein these risks induce a sudden
drop in consumer sentiment. A confidence-driven
THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY
The Short-Term Economic Outlook
The Tennessee economy continued to show
healthy economic growth through 2017, as
inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP)
advanced by 2.1 percent for the year, only slightly
behind the 2.2 percent growth registered for the
nation as a whole. The state’s labor market has
been especially buoyant as of late. After growing
by a modest 1.5 percent in 2017, nonfarm jobs
in Tennessee have expanded by over 2.0 percent
per quarter in each of the first three quarters of
2018. Tennessee’s manufacturing sector has also
shown resiliency, recording employment gains
of 1.4 percent in 2017 which was well above the
national growth rate of 0.7 percent. However,
manufacturing job growth in Tennessee will
slow to 1.0 percent in 2018 due in large part to
a sluggish first quarter. The state unemployment
rate averaged an incredibly low 3.7 percent in
2017 and is on pace to fall to 3.5 percent in 2018.
The low unemployment rate in combination with
strong job growth points to an economy that is
cruising along at or near “full employment” (the
idea that everyone who is willing and able to
work is employed). While this is a good sign, it
does suggest that there is limited room for future
growth. In addition, stimulative effects from the
2017 tax cuts and 2018 budget act are already
baked into the growth rates from those years and
as those effects dissipate, weaker economic growth
will likely follow.
This prospect of slower economic growth
is reflected in the short-term forecast, with
weaker growth in 2020. This is not a call for a
recession, just slower, positive economic growth.
x | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
decline in real-estate prices leads to a falling S&P
500 and a recession throughout the majority of
2020. If this scenario were to occur, we expect
the Federal Reserve to mitigate the duration and
intensity of the recession by again lowering interest
rates close to zero.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to increase
by 2.7 percent in 2018 and 2.6 percent in 2019,
before slowing to 1.9 percent in 2020. Nonfarm
employment will grow by 1.4 percent in 2019 and
0.9 percent in 2020, closely in line with but slightly
below the projections for national employment
growth of 1.5 percent in 2019 and 1.1 percent
in 2020. Tennessee’s unemployment rate will
rest around the 3.5-3.6 percent range for the rest
of the decade and the start of the next decade,
before rising towards 4.0 percent and above after
2022.
Due to upward pressure from an already
tight labor market, nominal personal income
will continue to grow at a healthy clip, advancing
by 4.3 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2020.
However, income growth will soften in later years
as job growth slows. Nominal taxable sales are
projected to rise by 4.1 percent in 2019 and 3.9
percent in 2020. On a fiscal year basis, taxable
sales will increase by 4.6 percent in fiscal year
2018/19 and 4.0 percent in 2019/20.
Tennessee’s Agricultural
& Forest Industries & Rural Industries
Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex
encompasses the supply chain from farm and
forest to consumers of the end products, such as
retail foods, clothing, paper, and furniture. When
accounting for multiplier effects, the agri-forestry
industrial complex added an estimated $81.8
billion to Tennessee’s economy, or 12.8 percent
of the state’s economic activity, and accounted
for 351.2 thousand jobs, or 9.2 percent of all
jobs (2015 estimates). In terms of the secondary

THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
industries, food and beverage manufacturing
value of shipments rose again in 2016, as did
the value of shipments from the forest products
sector. Food, beverage and tobacco products
manufacturing experienced 4.2 percent average
annual growth from 2010 to 2016. During this
same time frame, forest products manufacturing
also experienced an average annual growth of 4.2
percent. In 2017, farming operations occupied
10.8 million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent
of the state’s nearly 27 million acres of land
area. Of Tennessee’s 65,900 farming operations,
average farm size in 2017 was around 164 acres.
The 2017 value of cash farm receipts from crops
and livestock in Tennessee was just over $3.53
billion, with $1.41 billion from animals and $2.13
billion from crops. The commodities drawing the
highest cash receipts were soybeans, followed by
cattle and calves, broilers, then corn and cotton.
For several prominent commodities, the farming
sector is heavily influenced by national and/or
international market conditions. In 2017, major
export categories for Tennessee included soybeans,
cotton, other feed grains, corn, tobacco, wheat,
beef and veal, and broiler meat. Trade conditions
placed downward pressure on farm income for
2018. Government payments through the Market
Facilitation Program will help stabilize producer
incomes for 2018/19. However, uncertainty due to
ongoing trade disputes has the potential to impact
2019 plantings.
Four recommendations were made as part of
The Governor’s Rural Challenge for Tennessee
agriculture. Positive scorecard indicators toward
meeting these recommendations include increases
in yields for major crops, increases in investment
in the Tennessee Agricultural Enhancement
Program for technological and infrastructural
improvements, growth in economic activity from
the food and beverage processing industries,
increases in the number of four year agricultural
degrees awarded and graduates of Master Producer
Programs. Rural communities and their resources
are important contributors to the health of the
agri-forestry industrial complex. Important gaps
between rural and non-rural counties persist, for
example residents in rural counties have lower
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
median household incomes, higher poverty rates,
and lower percentages have attained 4-year college
degrees or higher.
The Long-Term Economic Outlook
The third chapter of this report includes two
components. The first is a long-term historical
review of the state’s economic performance
dating back to 2008 and the economic outlook
extending to 2028. The second is a detailed
discussion of the role that millennials are playing
in the marketplace. This large segment of the
population will shape the economic future of the
state and the nation.
The state economy has seen impressive
growth in the last decade, a window of time
that includes the end of the Great Recession
in the summer of 2009. Tennessee’s annual
employment growth of 1.0 percent outperformed
the 0.8 percent rate of growth for the nation by a
significant margin between 2008 and 2018. The
state’s manufacturing sector has seen impressive
gains, but these gains have been insufficient to
offset the devastating losses of the recession.
After peaking at 10.5 percent in 2009, the
state’s unemployment rate has moved to record
low levels. As these patterns of growth have
transpired, the state has seen a significant urban/
rural divide, with urban communities enjoying
greater prosperity than their rural counterparts.
A disturbing number of rural communities have
witnessed declining populations and the loss of
jobs. Another clear pattern has been stronger
economic performance for communities with
better educated and healthier adult populations.
The long-term economic outlook will be
characterized by slower growth. In the near
term, the constraints of full employment and
low productivity growth will restrain growth. By
the mid 2020s, slower labor force growth due to
long-term underlying demographic trends will
hold back growth. Expect nonfarm employment
to advance at a 0.7 percent annual rate between
2018 and 2028. Unemployment rates will remain
low but rise to the 4 percent range by mid-decade.
Annual growth in GDP should come in at 1.8
percent for both the state and the nation.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | xi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
A detailed discussion of millennials and
markets is included in this long-term outlook
chapter because of the size of the millennial
population and its ongoing and future impact on
the economy. Millennials—or Generation Y—
includes people born between 1980 and 2000.
They are a generation that has been surrounded
by globalization and major technological
advances, and they experienced the Great
Recession either as children or new entrants to
the labor market. These experiences have shaped
their views and behaviors.
Millennials have chosen different residential
lifestyles, including lower rates of home
ownership and strong tastes for urban living.
Many continue to live with their parents. These
FEDERAL TAX REFORM AND TENNESSEE
Chapter 4 includes two components, the
first an examination of a number of issues
regarding how the Federal tax reform enacted last
December affects the economy and Tennessee
and the second an exploration of how tariffs and
brewing trade wars are affecting the economy.
The first section on Federal taxes summarizes
the major provisions in the reform. The Tax Act
entails many provisions, and even a summary
includes many technical points. The second
section discusses how work and savings are
affected by the federal changes and the third
section considers how the tax changes may alter
business investment decisions. Many of the basic
elements of how the reforms affect the economy
can be understood without a thorough knowledge
of the overall tax cuts and the changes included
in the 2017 legislation.
xii | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
patterns may be a legacy of the Great Recession,
but it is too early to tell. These living patterns
have been accompanied by a preference for a
different form of transportation and significantly
less reliance on traditional automobiles.
Millennials are relatively well educated, with
about 65 percent having acquired some college
education. They have accumulated substantial
student debt and many have been underemployed,
perhaps another legacy of the recession. Their
consumption is different from other generations,
including preferences for online buying and eating
outside the home. These different tastes and
behaviors will ripple across markets for decades
to come, reshaping the structure of our state and
national economies.
The second major component of the chapter
looks at the impacts of tariffs on the state
economy. Tennessee is thoroughly integrated and
enmeshed in the global economy. International
trade and finance play a larger role here than
in other similarly-sized states. Economists and
Tennessee residents generally support free trade,
but in 2019 there is considerable uncertainty
about the direction of trade policy. 2018 saw
the U.S. and its global trading partners engaged
in a trade war that hit automobiles, whiskey and
soybeans, some of Tennessee’s top exports. These
trade barriers raise prices for Tennesseans and
put companies with international supply chains
at risk. Forecasters suggest that 2019 will see
the new trade barriers remain in place and new
barriers added, but forecasting the future of trade
policy is difficult in this political climate.
 The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1

CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY

IN THIS CHAPTER —

1.1. INTRODUCTION 1.3. THE U.S. FORECAST

1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN 1.4. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
REVIEW

1.1. INTRODUCTION

The U.S. economy continued its strong growth
in 2018, with inflation-adjusted annualized growth
rates of 2.2, 4.2, and 3.5 percent in quarters 1 through
3. The two most recent releases represent the largest
half-year growth since mid-2014. Strong results
are expected again in the fourth quarter, forecast
to be 2.6 percent, bringing overall growth in 2018
to approximately 3.1 percent. This is a substantial
increase on the 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent growth
recorded in 2017 and 2016 respectively, and would
represent the first time annual growth topped 3
percent since 2005.
This performance is particularly impressive in
an international context. In 2018, Canada is expected
to grow by 2.1 percent, the UK GDPby 1.4Growth
percent, the
was
Impressive
Figure 1.1: GDP Growth was Impressive in 2018
6
Euro Area by 2.2 percent, Japan by 1.2 percent, and
Germany by 2.2 percent. At 3.1 percent, U.S. Gross
Domestic Product growth far exceeds the gains of
comparable economies. This trend is expected to
continue. The OECD predicts 2019 growth rates
of 2.2 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.2 percent and 2.1
percent for Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and
Germany, respectively. The forecast of 2.7 percent for
the U.S. is again substantially higher than any of these.
The labor market recovery continued with
an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, lower than
last year’s 4.4 percent. With a forecasted 2019
unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, the economy
continues to operate at full employment. The
U.S. economy now
has 162 million people in its
in 2018

5
Annualized GDP Growth Rate

-1

-2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Markit.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 1

CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy
US GDP Growth Outpaced International Competitors
1.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
Figure 1.2: U.S. GDP Growth has Outpaced International Competitors
2
GDP Growth (%)
-1
2011 2012
Source: OECD.
labor force. At 72.2 percent, the prime age (under
65) participation rate is at its highest level since
2009. Growing 1.6 percent over the past year, the
economy sees 156 million people in employment.
This represents 2.5 million more jobs than last year.
Relative to the Great Recession low in 2010, there are
16.6 million more people in employment.
Employment was up broadly: 4.1 percent in
construction, 2.9 percent in real estate, 2.1 percent in
manufacturing, and 0.2 percent in the government
sector. The biggest increase was in mining, which saw
a 9.8 percent increase in employment.
Inflation accelerated slightly in 2018, with the
core consumer price index running at 2.5 percent.
This is higher than the Federal Reserve’s desired 2.0
percent, which will likely result in higher interest rates
in December and the coming year. From a base of
1 percent in 2017, the Federal Funds rate stands at
1.82 percent in 2018 and is likely to move towards 2.8
percent in 2019. These actions come after many years
of accommodating monetary policy in the aftermath
of the Great Recession. This outlook for rates is now
subject to some uncertainly given Federal Reserve
2 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Japan Euro-area USA
Chairman Powell’s recent comments about interest
rate normalization. One thing is certain, rates will
rise, the question is by how much.
Despite retaliatory tariffs, (see Chapter 4) exports
increased by an impressive 4.3 percent in 2018,
though part of this growth was intended to beat
the imposition of tariffs through the timing of
exports. At the same time, this export growth was
accompanied by a 4.9 percent increase in imports,
expanding the trade deficit to $631bn. The trade
deficit will increase in 2019, with a 4.1 percent
increase in exports forecasted to be more than offset
by a 6.4 percent increase in imports.
Inflation-adjusted disposable income increased
2.8 percent, the highest change since 2015. Surpassing
this was a 6.6 percent increase in corporate after-tax
profits, the best figures since 2012.
Nonresidential fixed investment showed strong
returns with 6.8 percent growth, higher than the
5.3 percent and 0.5 percent of 2017 and 2016
combined. Though the number of housing starts
(1.26 million) was an increase on last year, the
dollar value of residential investment was slightly

1.2. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
(0.3 percent) down on last year.
Overall factor productivity was up 1.3
percent over the year, with industrial production
showing 3.7 percent growth. Federal government
increased spending by 3 percent, with state and
local governments expanding expenditure by 1.1
percent. High by historical standards, the S&P 500
index saw a 7.9 percent increase, but below 2017’s
remarkable 19.2 percent increase.
A continuation of the good economic news
is forecast for 2019 and beyond, though the pace
of growth will slow. Inflation-adjusted GDP is
expected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2019, the
economy is expected to create 2.2 million jobs,
the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 3.4
percent and inflation-adjusted consumer spending
is expected to grow 2.8 percent. The global
1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW
The U.S. economy grew for the ninth straight
year in 2018. Reflecting strong fundamentals, and
enhanced by the fiscal stimulus provided by the
TCJA, inflation-adjusted GDP grew by 2.2, 4.2,
3.5, and 2.6 percent in the first through fourth
quarters of the year. (For additional information
on the TCJA, see chapter four of this report.)
The growth in each quarter was larger than in the
corresponding quarter in any of the past three
years. Though growth was slowest at the start of
the year, this fact highlights the strength of the
overall performance. The robust performance
was largely reflected in the individual components
of GDP. Expansion in output is accompanied
by steady improvements in the labor market,
consumption growth, and business investment.
It is likely that 2018 will represent the best year
of growth in some time. The economy has not
grown at rates in excess of 3 percent since 2005,
and more moderate growth should be expected in
the coming years as the current cycle extends itself.
For example, though nonresidential fixed investment
is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent in 2019, this is a
decline from the performance (6.8 percent increase)
seen in 2018. The labor market will slow as well as
the pool of available workers shrinks.
The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1
economy is expected to show slower growth,
though world GDP will continue to increase.
Nonetheless, several threats to the economy exist.
Though still above-trend, growth is forecast to be
lower in 2019. The stimulus from the Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act (TCJA) will fade, and a divided Congress
may struggle to address the fiscal deficit and national
debt. Tariff skirmishes with the EU, Canada, and
China may escalate to a trade war. While the oil
outlook is mixed, rising oil prices could be shocked
by political uncertainty around the U.S.’ relationship
with the Middle East. Many sectors like automobile
production have peaked and will offer little if
any boost to growth. This is not a recessionary
outlook, but one characterized by slower growth
as the economy moves through one of the longest
economic expansions on record.
Consumption
Personal consumption expenditures constitute
the largest component of U.S. GDP and will
account for 69.4 percent of income in 2018.
Consumption should grow 2.7 percent this year, up
from 2.5 percent in 2017, and repeating the change
recorded in 2016. Consumer expenditure growth
was tepid in the first quarter, seeing an increase of
half a percent. Indeed, early 2018 showed weak or
negative growth in several major components of
households’ budgets: purchases of food services
(such as those in restaurants) were up only one
percent, clothing and footwear recorded a 7.4
percent decline, expenditure on electricity was down
11 percent, and sales of new automobiles was down
21 percent. Strong responses over the remainder
of the year more than corrected these results, with
personal consumption up 3.8, 4.0, and 2.7 percent in
the following three quarters, respectively.
Personal consumption has three
subcomponents: services, nondurable goods, and
durable goods. Services is the least volatile of these
subcomponents. Including housing, utilities, health
care, banking, and many others, at 68.8 percent of
consumption spending, services is also by far the
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 3
CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy
1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
largest subcomponent. Healthcare is the largest
category in this subcomponent, constituting over
26 percent of services expenditures. Services grew
at 2.1 percent in 2018, similar to the growth rates
of 2.0 and 2.3 percent in the previous two years.
Health care expenditures grew by 2.7 percent, but
this was the lowest increase in five years. Electricity
expenditures increased 4.7 percent in 2018, far
higher than last year’s decline of 1.7 percent.
Nondurable goods make up approximately 20.7
percent of consumption. Nondurable goods include
food, beverages, medical products, gas, and other
similar short-lived products. Comprising a third
of nondurable expenditures, food and beverages
is the largest category of nondurable goods.
Overall spending on nondurable goods increased
by 2.9 percent in 2018, higher than the 2.1 percent
recorded in 2017. The largest growth was seen in
non-vehicle fuel expenditures, which increased by
5.8 percent. It was good year too for the clothing
and footwear sector, with sales up 3.7 percent.
Durable goods made up the remaining 10.5
percent of consumption. Including spending
on vehicles, furniture, and other durable goods,
growth of 6.2 percent in 2018 represented the
largest increase in the three subcomponents. The
largest single increase was in computer hardware,
reporting 12 percent growth. Other notable
increases were recorded in recreational goods and
vehicles (8.6 percent) and used trucks (8 percent).
The sales of new automobiles continued to
decrease in expenditure terms, with 2018 recording
an 8.7 percent decrease. That category has not seen
growth since 2013, and declines are forecast in
both 2019 and 2020.
Investment
Investment will account for 18.2 percent of U.S.
GDP in 2018. Though not as large a component
of the economy as consumption, investment is
more volatile and thus a major source of change
in economic conditions. Investment includes three
subcomponents: nonresidential fixed investment,
residential fixed investment (new housing), and the
change in business inventories. Fixed investments
will contribute positively to GDP, but change in
4 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
business inventories will provide a slight drag on
growth. (Note that investment, as defined in GDP
statistics, does not include financial instruments like
stocks and bonds.)
Nonresidential investment, the largest
subcomponent of investment spending, made
up 80 percent of investment spending in 2018. It
includes equipment purchases by firms, acquisitions
of non-tangible products such as software and
licenses, and spending on structures. Nonresidential
fixed investment spending grew by 6.8 percent in
2018, substantially above the 5.3 percent of 2017,
and far in excess of the half a percent increase
recorded in 2016. Federal tax cuts that enabled
expensing contributed to this gain. The 6.8 percent
represents a weighted-average of a 7.1 percent
increase in equipment (such as industrial equipment,
and aircraft), a 7.7 percent increase in intellectual
property (IP) products (such as software), and a 4.8
percent increase in structures. Mining, which includes
petroleum and natural gas extraction, continued to
see a remarkable increase in 2018, with investment
expenditures up 29.8 percent for the year.
Nonresidential fixed investment is expected
to slow in 2019 and the following years. One
explanation is that the effects of the TCJA will fade
through 2019 and then disappear in subsequent
years. In addition, as the economy slows, then need
for additional business investment is diminished.
The housing market continues to its lackluster
performance, with rising prices, increased scarcity
and mediocre investment growth. Residential
fixed investment, which represents 18 percent of
total investment, had a poor year with a slight (0.3
percent) decrease in investment spending. The year
saw 1.263 million housing starts, up from 1.208
million in 2017. Though starts are up, residential
construction expenditure is down by 0.3 percent
over the year, though it remains nearly 60 percent
higher in inflation-adjusted terms than the Great
Recession low of 2011. The median price for
existing homes increased by 3.9 percent, down on
the 5.9 percent from the previous year, while the
median price for new homes was up 1.4 percent,
far below the general rate of inflation. The rental
vacancy rate was 1.5 percent in 2018, down from
 The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1

1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED

The Increased Federal Funds Rate Since 2016
Figure 1.3: The Increased Federal Funds Rate since 2016

2.0

1.5
Effective Rate (%)

1.0

0.5

0.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis Economic Data.

1.6 percent in 2017, and the fall is expected to largest changes were in farming and manufacturing.
continue to 1.4 percent in 2019. Farm inventories decreased (by 2.9 percent) over
Business inventories increased by 3.6 2018, while manufacturers increased their stock
percent in 2018, the highest increase since 2011. of inventory by 5.7 percent. The increase in
Inventories increased at the fastest rate (5.7 manufacturing inventories is in addition to the
percent) in the first quarter, creating a significant 4.9 percent increase recorded in 2017. This trend
drag on GDP growth. The increase in inventories is not expected to continue: weakened demand
slowed considerably for the rest of year, including will see inventories rises by only 2 percent and 1.2
a decrease of 0.7 percent in the third quarter. The percent in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Oil Price Increases and the Threat of Recession

October 1973 saw militaries advancing on Israel, with Egyptian forces crossing the Suez Canal coinciding
with Syrian attacks on the Golan Heights. Launched on Judaism’s holiest day, the effects of what became known
as the Yom Kippur War has been studied by economists primarily because of its after effects on macroeconomies
thousands of miles away from the Middle East. Likely in retaliation for American military support for Israel, several
members of OPEC decided to reduce supplies of oil to western nations. This decision resulted in the 1973 Oil
Crisis. Over the space of a few months, the price of imported oil in the U.S. rose from $4.31 in September 1973 to
over $10 in January 1974.1
Continued on Page 6

1
Source: Source: Baumeister and Kilian (2016) “Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us”, Journal of
Economic Perspectives 30(1)139-160.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 5

CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy

1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED

Oil Price Increases and the Threat of Recession, continued from Page 6
The subsequent performance of the U.S. economy was appalling. By May 1975 the unemployment rate
reached 9 percent, higher than it had been for a generation. Indeed, following the Oil Crisis, the U.S. faced years
of economic malaise. Inflation averaged over 7.5 percent for a decade, and unemployment did not return to its
pre-crisis level until 1997.2
The increase in oil prices was of interest to economists because it was arguably unrelated to the
fundamentals of the U.S. economy. In contrast to (for example) increases in industrial crises in a country’s financial
system, the oil crisis was not inherently a domestic issue. Such `exogenous’ shocks are rare and provided a
compelling case study of the importance of Middle Eastern politics, and the price of oil in particular, to overall
economic health in the U.S. Oil is necessary for the efficient transport of workers and products across the country,
a crucial input into industrial production, and a significant component in consumer spending. Shock increases
in the price of oil can percolate into the real economy through these channels, resulting in increases in prices,
declines in manufacturing output, higher prices, and ultimately job losses.
It is not surprising then to see that large increase in the price of oil are often associated with subsequent
recessions in the U.S. Although much recent work has questioned its causal effect on economic performance,3
increases in oil prices remain correlated with subsequent recessions.
The price of Brent crude oil has increased from $55 in 2017 to just $75 this year, though as of late November,
2018, prices have retreated to the low $50 range. If the forecast of the price of a barrel exceeding $82 in 2019
occurs, that will represent more than a 50 percent increase on the 2017 price. Although no repeat of the 1973 Oil
Crisis is expected, oil price shocks remain a threat to the performance of the U.S. economy.
Increasing Oil Prices Pose a Threat to the US Economy
Figure 1.4: Increasing Oil Prices Pose a Threat to the U.S. Economy

150

120
Crude Oil Price per Barrel ($)

90

60

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis Economic Data.

2
Source: Hamilton (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II”, The Journal of Political Economy, 91(2)228-248.
3
Kilian (2009), Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market, American Economic Review, 99(3)
1053-1069.

6 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
Interest Rates
Having spent several years hovering just above
zero, the Federal Reserve continued increasing the
Federal Funds rate in 2018. Interest rates are a key
determinant of each subcomponent of investment
as well as consumer spending. Interest rates also
affect exchange rates, with higher rates leading to
an increase in the value of the dollar. The higher
value of the dollar in turn increases imports and
dampens exports, thus slowing overall growth.
The Federal Funds rate ticked up from 1.4 percent
in the first quarter to over 2.1 percent in the
fourth quarter. With inflation now easily exceeding
the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent, it is likely that
the Federal Funds rate will continue to slowly
increase if the economy’s fundamentals remain
strong. Recent comments from the Chairman of
the Federal Reserve has tempered expectations for
rate increases in 2019.
Because of rising interest rates, the 30-year
fixed mortgage rate will likely exceed 5 percent in
2019, up from 3.7 percent in 2016 and 4 percent
in 2017. These rates remain low by historical
standards. The average before the Great Recession
was 6 percent. The 3-month Treasury Bill rate
Actual
Figure and Forecasted
1.5: Actual
and Forecasted
Federal
2
Percent Change
-2
-4
-6
2012
Source: IHS Markit.
The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1
and the 10-year Treasury Note have also both
increased. The 3-month Treasury Bill rate rose
to 1.96 percent in 2018, up from 0.93 percent;
and the 10-year Treasury Note was 2.94 percent,
up from 2.33 percent. The yield curve—the
difference between short-term and long-term
rates—has narrowed but broad rate inversion is
not expected.
Government Purchases
Buoyed by a 3.4 percent inflation-adjusted
increase in defense spending, expenditures by the
federal government increased 3 percent in 2018.
The increase in federal spending was matched
with a 1.1 percent increase in expenditures by
state and local governments. The increase in state
and local expenditures is best explained by capital
investment. Although there were modest increases
(0.1 percent in real terms) in wages and salaries
of public workers in the local government sector,
there was a 4.8 percent increase in gross investment.
Perhaps due to upgrading of older computer
systems, expenditures by state & local government
on software and equipment both saw significant
increases, at 10.7 and 8 percent, respectively.
Change
in Public
Change Expenditures
in Public Expenditures
State & Local
2014 2016 2018
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 7
CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy
1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
The reins of fiscal responsibility have been
loosened. After five years of zero or negative
increases in spending between 2011 and 2015,
the federal government has expanded purchases
by 0.4, 0.7, and 3.0 percent in 2016-2018. Federal
expenditures are expected to increase by 4.9
percent in inflation-adjusted terms in 2019, 60
percent of which represents additional defense
spending.
Most strikingly, the deficit is accelerating
as a result of both spending increases and the
TCJA. The Federal government’s outlays have
exceeded its receipts every year since 2002. The
2018 deficit of $970 billion dollars represents
4.73 percent of GDP, a substantial increase on
the previous three years’ deficits of 3.57, 3.56,
and 3.12 percent. This is an unprecedented
pattern for a period of economic prosperity.
Deficits are expected to continue for the
foreseeable future: the average deficit over the
next five years is forecast to exceed 4.9 percent
per year, adding $5.8tn to the national debt. As
of 2018, the federal debt stands at $21.87tn in
nominal dollars, of which $16.1tn is publicly
held. The amount of publicly held debt equals a
monumental 78.6 percent of GDP.
International Trade
Tariffs will interfere with international trade
for the foreseeable future. The most recent
tranche of tariffs on Chinese imports will rise
from 15 percent to 25 percent after the first of the
year. Despite a new trade accord between the U.S.,
Canada and Mexico, steel and aluminum continue
to be tariffed. President Trump continues to
threaten trading partners with tariffs, including
tariffs on imports from the E.U. The fourth
chapter of this report discusses tariffs in greater
detail, including implications for Tennessee.
In 2018, the U.S. is expected to record
a trade deficit of $630.9 billion, equal to 3.1
percent of GDP. Exports will amount to
$2.54 trillion. Exports comprise goods, such as
aircraft and computer hardware, and services,
such as patent royalties and financial advice.
8 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Exports from Tennessee vary widely and include
manufactured goods and agricultural commodities;
transportation equipment is the largest export
item from Tennessee. The value of goods exports
from the U.S. is about twice as much as service
exports. Exports of goods will add $1.677 trillion
to GDP, up 5.1 percent from the previous year.
Exports of services amount to $866.7 billion, up
2.7 percent from 2017. The largest components of
goods exports include industrial materials ($538.2
billion) and food, feeds and beverages ($143.2
billion).
Imports will amount to $3.18 trillion in 2018,
up 4.9 percent on 2017. Like exports, the U.S.
imports both goods and services. The value of
imported goods will reach $2.59 trillion, with
services accounting for $587 billion. The U.S.
imports more consumer goods ($650.5 billion
in 2018, up 7.5 percent on 2017) than its entire
services imports.
Inflation & Prices
The most cited measure of the aggregate level
of prices in the economy is the Consumer Price
Index, the “CPI”. The CPI is the headline measure
of inflation regularly covered by news media. With
the combination strong aggregate demand, labor
market pressures, and accommodating monetary
policy, it is unsurprising that CPI increased by 2.5
percent in 2018.
The 2018 jump in CPI was larger than 2017
(2.1 percent) and considerably higher than the 1.3
and 0.1 percent increases observed in 2016 and
2015 respectively. Core inflation was 2.1 percent,
with food prices increasing by 1.4 percent. A
considerable driver of consumer prices this year
was an 8.4 percent increase in energy prices,
much of which was attributable to a 16.1 percent
increase in the price of energy commodities.
This contrasts with an 11.4 percent decrease in
commodity prices in 2016, which had dampened
inflation to 1.3 percent. Inflation is forecast to
continue at 2.5 percent in 2019, with substantial
increases in energy commodities again expected to
play a key role in the increase.
 The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1

1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED

Figure 1.6: Unemployment is Low by Historical Standards

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Current Population Survey.

Figure 1.7: People with Higher Educational Attainment are Less Likely to be Unemployed
People with Higher Educational Attainment are Less Likely to be Unemployed

15

10
Unemployment (%)

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Less than HS High School College Graduates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Current Population Survey.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 9

CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy
1.2. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
The Labor Market
The U.S. labor market continues to post strong
results, with an expected 2018 unemployment rate
of 3.9 percent versus last year’s 4.4 percent. With a
forecasted 2019 unemployment rate of 3.4 percent,
the economy continues to operate on the frontier of
full employment.
The U.S. economy now has 162 million people
in its labor force. At 72.2 percent, the prime age
(under 65) participation rate is at its highest level
since 2009. Growing 1.6 percent over the past year,
the economy sees 156 million people in employment.
This represents 2.5 million more jobs than last year.
Relative to the Great Recession low, there are 16.6
million more people in employment than in 2010.
As a point of comparison, 16.6 million people
represents the combined population of Tennessee
and Michigan.
Employment was up broadly: 4.1 percent in
construction, 2.9 percent in real estate, 2.1 percent in
manufacturing, and 0.2 percent in the government
sector. The biggest increase was in mining and
petroleum, which saw a 9.8 percent increase in
employment.
The trend is clear that unemployment is low
by historical standards. The unemployment rate has
dropped from 10 percent during the Great Recession
to under 4 percent today. More subtle than the
overall trend are the differences between groups at
a given point in time. One of the most important
determinants of unemployment is education.
Figure 1.6 shows unemployment rates
categorized by highest level of educational
attainment. The series runs from the turn of the
millennium through 2018. The highest line is the
unemployment rate for people with less than a
high school diploma. We see that at no point in
this century has the unemployment rate dropped
below 5 percent for this group. The middle dashed
line is the unemployment rate for people who
have completed high school but did not attend
college. The lowest line is the unemployment rate
for people with a bachelors degree or higher. We
see that unemployment is always lowest for college
graduates. Even at the height of the recession, the
10 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
unemployment rate for college graduates was below
5 percent. Much of the gains from the labor market
improvements since the Great Recession has been
for relatively lower-skilled workers, especially in
recent years.
Productivity & Wages
Though overall output is up 3.1 percent over
the year, nonfarm productivity grew by just 1.3
percent in 2018. This plateau of productivity gains
is a significant departure from long-term patterns
prior to the recession because productivity growth
has traditionally been higher in the modern U.S.
economy. For context, no year between 1998 and
2005 saw productivity growth less than 2.0 percent,
and earlier periods showed even stronger growth.
With growth rates of 1.1, 1.3, and 1.4 percent in
2017, 2018, and 2019 respectively, productivity
growth is about half that of twenty years ago.
Further, productivity increases are lagging
behind gains in output and gains in compensation.
This divergence is unlikely to persist long-term.
Compensation per hour increased 2.9 percent in
2018, down from the 3.4 percent seen in 2017,
but up from the 1.1 percent recorded in 2016.
Manufacturing productivity growth was particularly
lethargic, recording a 0.7 percent increase in 2018.
In the context of slow or negative growth in recent
years (0.0, -1.5, 0.3, and 0.7 percent growth for 2014
through 2017), productivity in this sector has been
essentially stagnant for five years.
Earnings gains are likely to show modest
acceleration as the expansion continues and the
labor market tightens further. Recent employment
cost data do in fact show year-over-year acceleration
in earnings. While broad-based wage pressures are
just now emerging, beneath the surface are relatively
strong gains for low-skilled workers. Overall
earnings growth is being tempered by weak gains for
more skilled jobs.
With strong economic fundamentals and
a growing world economy, the U.S. economy is
predicted to continue growing in 2019 and 2020.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is expected to grow by an
impressive 2.7 percent in 2019 before tailing off
 The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1

1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST

slightly to 2.1 percent in 2020. The slowdown is expected to grow by 4.5 percent in 2019. The effects
forecast to be gradual. Annualized real GDP growth of inflation reduces this growth to 2.2 percent in
is forecast to be 3.2 percent in the first quarter of real terms. These gains compare to the 2.8 percent
2019, before sliding to 2.4 percent growth in quarter real growth achieved in 2018. Spending growth on
four. Similarly, first quarter growth in 2020 is forecast durable goods is expected to reach 5.5 percent in
to be an impressive 2.3 percent before rounding out 2019, slightly lower than the 6.2 percent and 6.8
quarter four with a 1.8 percent expansion. percent seen in 2018 and 2017, but remain above-
trend relative to other components of consumption.
Consumption
The trend of declining new automobile sales is
Consumer spending is expected to remain expected to continue in 2019, with a fall of 4.9
strong in 2019 with growth of 2.8 percent, percent. The decline in new vehicles will be offset
followed by 2.4 percent growth in 2020. These by growth in computer hardware and software,
outcomes depend on continuing improvements both exceeding 11 percent. Nondurables and
in the labor market and further gains in consumer expenditures on services are expected to grow
confidence (which weakened in November). The by 3.0 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The
slowdown in consumption growth is one more sign positive outlook for clothing and footwear is set
of an economy that is operating above sustainable to continue, with growth of 4.5 percent expected
levels fueled by temporary tax stimulus and low in 2019. Restaurants should see improvements in
interest rates. profitability, with food services forecasted to grow
In nominal terms, disposable income is by 4.8 percent and 4.5 percent in 2019 and 2020.

Consumer Confidence, Debt, and Savings

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has been a primary indicator for confidence since its
inception in 1946. Researchers ask consumers approximately 50 questions on their own financial situation, buying
conditions, expected changes in inflation and unemployment, confidence in government economic policies, and
their view on the general economy in the near- and long-term.
Continued on Page 12

Figure 1.8: Figure 1.9:

ConsumerConsumer
Confidence Remains High
Confidence Remains High
Consumer Debt Continues to Grow
Consumer Debt Continues to Grow

100
4000
Total Consumer Debt (billions)

95
3800
Consumer Sentiment Index

90 3600

85 3400

80
3200

3000
75
2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2019 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2019 Q1

Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis Economic Data / University of Michigan: Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis Economic Data.
Consumer Sentiment Index.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 11

CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy

1.3. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED

Consumer Confidence, Debt, and Savings, continued from Page 11

Consumption is by far the largest component of GDP, and the Index is a generally good barometer for
consumers’ views on the state of the economy. Consumer sentiment in 2018 was high, reaching heights not seen
since 2004. Interestingly, the Index remained unchanged among Democrats and Republican prior to and following
the election.1 This indicates stability in the measure, reflecting a reliance on true economic fundamentals such as
job security, rather than short swings.
Consumer debt continues to grow. The total stock of outstanding debt looks set to exceed $4 trillion by
the end of 2019, an increase in a third since 2013. Student loan and automobile debt have been important
contributors to rising overall debt levels. Increases in debt hinder people’s ability to save for retirement or future
negative economic shocks. The five years since 2013 has seen substantial economic growth, increases in labor
force participation, and decreases in unemployment. Combined, this five-year period provided an opportunity for
ordinary consumers to deleverage their obligations and provide buffer stocks in case of future recession.
Rather than increasing savings in the good times seen over the previous years, consumers opted to spend
a larger portion of their income. This is particularly noticeable in the data since early 2016, when savings rates
dropped well over a percentage point over the preceding ten quarters. Though business conditions continue to
improve and by most measures the economy is doing extremely well, the exposure of consumers to a recession,
financial crisis, or increased interest rates constitutes a considerable threat to economic stability.

Savings
Figure Rate Relatively
1.10: Savings Low
Rate is Relatively Low

8.0

7.5

7.0
Savings Rate

6.5

6.0

5.5

2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2019 Q1

Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis Economic Data.

1
Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, December 2018. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/.

12 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


1.3. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
The Labor Market
The historically low rate of unemployment
should continue, with a rate of 3.4 percent
expected in 2019. In the first, second, third
and fourth quarters, 579,000, 540,000, 494,000
and 454,000 jobs are expected to be created
respectively. The declining rates of growth are
consistent with expectations for a variety of other
measures of the economy. The unemployment
rate of 3.4 percent is forecast to persist through
2020.
With unemployment historically low,
increases in pay are expected. Wages and salaries
are forecast to increase by 3.3 percent in 2019,
followed by 3.5 percent in 2020. Total nonfarm
payroll employment is forecast to grow at 1.5
percent in 2019, and 1.1 percent in 2020. These
forecasts convey averages, but there is substantial
variation depending on sector. After a remarkable
9.8 percent increase in mining and petroleum
employment in 2018, more sustainable increases
of 3.5 percent are likely in 2019. Similarly,
construction payrolls are forecast for 3.4 percent
increases next year. Manufacturing payrolls should
increase by 1.7 percent next year, a more modest
improvement than the 2.1 percent recorded in
2018, though higher than any year between 2013
and 2017. On the other side of the scale, the
historical declines in publishing industries (1.7
percent) and textile mills (3.4 percent) are likely to
continue.
Productivity gains are a main driver of overall
economic growth. Productivity is expected to see
only modest growth in 2019, with a 1.4 percent
increase following the 1.3 percent recorded in
2018. These tepid increases are substantially less
than the 2.7 percent annual increases achieved
from 2000 through 2010 (inclusive).
As noted above, there have been material
improvements in the nation’s labor force
participation rate in recent quarters. Further
improvement is expected in 2019, with the
participation rate rising to 72.8 percent by 2020.
These gains will be supported by increases in
the over-65 participation rate. As life expectancy
increases, we can expect to see people working
The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1
longer. This will push the over-65 participation
rate up from 18.9 percent in 2018 to 19.4 percent
in 2019, and 19.8 percent in 2020. Though rising
in recent years, overall participation rates of 62.8
percent are low by historical averages: at the turn
of the millennium 67.1 percent of the population
was willing and able to work. The U.S. labor
force participation rate peaked in 2000 as a result
of declines in the participation rate of men and
women; male labor force participation rates have
been in decline since the late 1940s.
Investment and Interest Rates
Business investment in equipment is set to
increase 4.4 percent in 2019, including a significant
14.5 percent increase in the volatile aircraft
component. This will taper off to a 3.4 percent
increase in 2020. Similarly, increases in inventories
are set to taper from 2.0 percent in 2019 to just
1.2 percent in 2020. Investment in equipment
and structures generally tapers off as overall
growth slows since there is a diminished need
for additional productive capacity. The TCJA
stimulated investment by lowering corporate tax
rates and expanding bonus depreciation provisions,
but the influence of the cuts will diminish.
The low level of growth in these components
are in contrast to business confidence in intellectual
property, investment in which is due to increase
by 6.5 percent in 2019, including an 8.1 percent
increase in research and development spending.
Residential construction will see a relatively
quiet year in 2019, with an increase of just 0.3
percent forecast followed with a significant
expansion to 4.5 percent growth expected in 2020.
Housing starts are forecast to reach 1.318 million
in 2019, followed by 1.424 million in 2020. Median
prices for existing houses are set to increase by 1
percent in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2020, while the
median price for new houses is forecast to decline
by 1.1 percent in 2019 before recovering by 1.9
percent in 2020.
Currently hovering around 2.2 percent, the
Federal Funds rate is forecast to increase to 2.7
percent in mid-2019 before rounding out the year
at an average rate of 2.8 percent. It is forecast to
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 13
CHAPTER 1 | The U.S. Economy
1.3. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
average 3.4 percent in 2020. The 30-year fixed rate
mortgage, up 0.6 percent to 4.6 in 2018, should
rise to 5.1 percent in 2019, stabilizing around 5.2
percent in 2020. The 1-Year Treasury Bill yield,
which had a significant increase to 2.3 percent in
2018, will follow a similar path to 3.2 percent in
2019 before reaching 3.6 percent in 2020.
Federal Budget
The federal government continues to spend
more than it receives in taxes. Spanning several
Presidencies and Congresses, receipts have not
exceed outlays since 2001. A large increase in
expenditures is planned again for 2019, with
outlays set to increase to $4,376 billion. With
receipts forecast of just $3,426 billion, the Federal
government is set to run a deficit of $950 billion,
the largest amount since 2012.
Expenditures are set to increase by $268
billion in 2019. Some of the largest increases are
for Social Security ($61.4 billion), Medicare ($44.5
billion), defense ($40.6 billion), and higher interest
payments ($40.5 billion). Buoyed by a tight labor
market, personal income tax receipts are set to
increase by $81 billion in 2019. Financed in part by
increased tariffs, taxes on production and imports
are set to rise by $52.9 billion. However, due to
cuts on corporate income from the TCJA, revenue
from corporate taxes are set to be $168.7 billion in
2019. In nominal terms, this is down 40.1 percent
on the 2017 corporate tax revenue ($284.6 billion)
and down 48.4 percent on 2016 figures.
Starting in 2020, annual deficits are set to
exceed $1 trillion for each of the following five
years. Recurring deficits will by 2025 increase
the federal government’s publicly held debt-to-
GDP ratio to 91 percent. It is already considered
dangerously high at 78.6 percent. Nominal interest
payments on debt are set to exceed $1 trillion
within the decade, crowding out the capacity to
provide services to American taxpayers.
International Trade
The U.S. trade deficit is set to increase in both
2019 and 2020, exceeding one trillion dollars both
14 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
years in inflation-adjusted terms. Exports are set
to grow in 2019, with good exports increasing
4.2 percent and services exports increasing by 3.9
percent. In 2018, President Trump introduced
tariffs on imports on national security grounds,
including tariffs on goods from major trading
partners and traditional allies of the U.S. such
as Canada and the European Union. The
announcement of the new trade strategy prompted
retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports to these markets.
For example, Canada levied 25 percent tariffs on
many manufacturing goods and 10 percent tariffs
on many agricultural goods. Consequently, within
the aggregate 4.2 percent increase in exports, there
is considerable heterogeneity. The largest decline in
exports will be for foods, which will fall 8 percent
in 2019. Additionally, exports of consumer goods
are forecast to fall 2.2 percent, the first year of
negative growth in a decade.
Though exports are due to increase 4.1
percent next year, imports are forecast to rise by
6.4 percent because of strong growth and a strong
dollar. A 4.1 percent rise in exports and 6.4 percent
rise in imports will, of course, increase the trade
deficit. Services imports are forecast to rise 3.1
percent. By far the largest proportional increase is
in industrial materials, due to increase 26 percent in
2019. Consumer goods imports are set to rise 11.9
percent, the largest increase since 2010.
Inflation & Prices
The CPI rose from 0.1 percent in 2015 to 2.1
percent in 2017, and this increase in prices will
sustain with 2.5 percent increases in inflation in
both 2018 and 2019. The higher expected inflation
is caused in part by double-digit increases in
the price of energy-related commodities. It also
reflects the expected impact of tariffs enacted
against imports from China, which are set to
increase to 25 percent on January 1st. Though
this may be initially absorbed by firms, it is likely
to ultimately be passed onto consumers, adding
0.1 percentage points to forecasted CPI on an
annualized basis.
Consistent with the experience of 2018,
producer prices are set to increase at a faster rate

1.3. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
(2.7 percent) than the CPI (2.5 percent) in 2019.
This is less of an increase than the 3.2 percent
observed in both 2017 and 2018, representing a
convergence between consumer and producer
inflation.
CPI increases of 2.5 percent in an economy
operating at full employment are likely above
1.4. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
Record-breaking GDP growth, historically low
unemployment and manageable inflation rates
provide welcoming indicators for the U.S. economy.
Macroeconomic conditions in Europe and China
continue to be largely positive, offering sound
markets for American exports, though tariffs will
serve as a drag. Continued growth will depend
on sustained consumer and business spending,
continued global economic recovery, as well financial
markets remaining confident.
In the pessimistic scenario (25 percent
probability), a broad loss in consumer sentiment
and growing aversion to risk could result in a
recession. In this scenario, weaker-than-expected
total factor productivity and investment levels result
in a confidence-driven decline in real-estate prices.
The growing sense of unease leads to the S&P 500
declining and a recession occurring throughout
The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1
the levels tolerated by the Federal Reserve.
Consequently, we can expect higher interest rates
to cause a contractionary drag on inflation. With
the Federal Funds rate expected to increase from
2.81 to 3.37 percent, inflation is expected to taper
off to 2.7 and 2.1 percent in 2019 and 2020,
respectively.
the majority of 2020. The severity of the recession
is curbed by the actions of the Federal Reserve,
dropping rates close to zero.
In the optimistic scenario (15 percent probability),
three events cohere to return better than expected
economic conditions: (1) faster productivity growth;
(2) lower long-run unemployment; and (3) higher
interest rates. These conditions would result in
growth about 1 percentage point higher than
baseline expectations. If demographic and business
conditions permit lower long-run unemployment
than expected (4 percent rather than 4.8 percent),
then the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates
as high as 3.5 percent by the middle of 2022.
Combined with high productivity growth, we would
see increases in consumer spending due to faster real
income growth and a 5.4 percent growth in business
investment in 2019.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 15
16 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
IN THIS CHAPTER —
2.1. INTRODUCTION
2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC FOREST INDUSTRIES AND
ENVIRONMENT
- THE LABOR MARKET
- HEALTH AND EDUCATION IN TENNESSEE
- INCOME AND TAXABLE SALES
- STATE FINANCES ACROSS THE NATION
- THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
TENNESSEE
- RECESSION READINESS IN TENNESSEE
2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
2.4. TENNESSEE FORECAST AT A
GLANCE
2.1. INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides a short-term
(10 quarters ahead) outlook for the Tennessee
economy. Both Tennessee and the U.S. are currently
in one of the longest economic expansions on
record, a record that dates back to the 1850s. Job
growth in Tennessee has been healthy and the
state unemployment rate remains incredibly low,
suggesting that the state economy may be humming
along at “full employment” (the idea that everyone
who is willing and able to work is employed). While
this is a good sign, it is also indicative of a business
cycle at its peak and growth may slow due to
capacity constraints and other factors in the near-
term. At the national-level some signs have already
begun to show, with light vehicle sales beginning to
taper off, and the housing market losing steam. With
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
2.5. TENNESSEE’S
AGRICULTURAL AND
RURAL ECONOMY
INTRODUCTION
AGRICULTURE AND PRIMARY FORESTRY
- COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS AND
- OUTLOOK
- INFRASTRUCTURE
- FARMERS MARKETS, CSA’S, WINERIES
AND THE GREEN INDUSTRY
- FINANCIAL INDICATORS FOR TENNESSEE
FARMING INDUSTRIES
- PRIMARY FORESTRY IN TENNESSEE
- FOOD, FIBER, AND FORESTRY
MANUFACTURING IN TENNESSEE
- ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM THE
AGRI-FORESTRY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
- RURAL ECONOMIES AND WELL-BEING
- GOVERNOR’S RURAL CHALLENGE
- SUMMARY
- REFERENCES USED
these patterns in mind, the short-term outlook for
Tennessee calls for modest growth in 2018 and 2019
and then slower growth starting in 2020. In 2017
and 2018, economic growth was boosted by the
2017 Tax Act and Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, in
addition to high consumer and business confidence,
and strong employment growth. As employment
growth slows, and the effects of the tax cuts and
budget act wane, we should see a weakening of
economic growth in the upcoming years. Rising
interest rates, a rising dollar in international currency
markets and tariffs will also hold back growth. This
is not a recessionary outlook, but a projection for
slower, positive economic growth.
Nonfarm employment is projected to grow
by 1.8 percent or 52,000 new jobs in 2018. This
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 17
CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
would be slightly faster than the 1.6 percent
growth rate forecasted for U.S. jobs in 2018,
which is equivalent to an increase of 2.4 million
jobs nationwide. Nonfarm jobs in both the state
and nation will follow a similar trajectory into
2019, with slightly lower growth before a marked
slowdown in 2020. Manufacturing employment
expanded by 1.4 percent in 2017, which was well
above the national growth rate of 0.7 percent.
However, manufacturing job growth in Tennessee
will slow to 1.0 percent in 2018 due in large part
to a sluggish first quarter, and growth is projected
2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The Labor Market
In Tennessee, nonfarm job growth expanded
at a healthy rate of 1.5 percent during 2017. This
was slightly slower than the 1.6 percent growth
rate registered for the nation as a whole. For the
year, nonfarm employment sat slightly above
the 3.0 million mark in 2017 and well above the
pre-recession peak of 2.8 million in 2007. This
is the fourth consecutive year that Tennessee
employment levels have exceeded their pre-
recession peak levels. However it took a solid seven
years for the labor market to claw back from the
recession. Moreover, while state job growth has
been healthy, it has slowed considerably compared
to the previous two years, which is reflective of an
economy sitting at or near full employment.
In 2017, all broad sectors of the Tennessee
economy experienced some job gains. Employment
growth was strongest in the natural resources,
mining, and construction sector, which grew by
4.2 percent. Employment in the financial activities
sector expanded by 3.3 percent, and jobs in the
leisure and hospitality sector increased by 3.1 percent.
In general, it was Tennessee’s service sectors that
saw the healthiest job growth in 2017, as jobs in
the other services sector and education and health
services sector grew by 2.7 percent and 1.9 percent
respectively. On the other hand, the professional
and business services sector did not fare as well,
18 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
to dampen to 0.6 percent by 2020. Similarly,
inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP)
in Tennessee is projected to advance by over 2.5
percent per year in both 2018 and 2019 but then
weaken to 1.9 percent or below thereafter. One
bright spot of the short-term forecast is nominal
personal income, which will continue to see healthy
growth, due to upward pressure from an already
tight labor market. Personal income is projected to
increase by 4.3 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in
2020. However, income growth will slow in later
years as job growth dampens.
expanding by only 0.7 percent for the year.
Manufacturing employment in the state
grew by 1.4 percent in 2017, greatly outpacing
the nation’s lackluster 0.7 percent growth rate.
This was the seventh consecutive year of
positive manufacturing job growth in the state,
following 15 consecutive years of job losses,
dating back to 1996. Within the manufacturing
sector, employment in the nondurable goods
manufacturing sector grew by 1.7 percent, while
jobs in the durable goods sector increased by 1.3
percent.
Figure 2.1 shows how all broad sectors of
the Tennessee economy have fared since the first
month of the Great Recession, December 2007.
Total nonfarm employment in Tennessee has
only grown by 10 percent compared to late 2007.
All of the state’s service sectors have made full
recoveries, with professional and business services,
leisure and hospitality, and education and health
services all seeing gains nearing 25 percent or
greater, while financial activities is up 10 percent.
Conversely, despite recent employment gains in the
state’s manufacturing sector, this growth has not
covered all of the losses seen since the recession.
Employment levels in mining, logging, and
construction as well as the information sector still
lag behind the pre-recession levels as well.
A recent snapshot of county labor market
conditions is presented in Figure 2.2. Between
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.1: Digging Out of the Great Recession, Most
Sectors of the State Economy Have Fully Recovered
Figure 2.1: Digging Out of the Great Recession, Most Sectors of the State Economy Have Fully
Recovered. (October 2018 Employment as a Share of December 2007 Employment)

Professional and Business Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health Services

Financial Activities

Total Nonfarm

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Government

Manufacturing

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Information

Figure 2.2: Employment Growth, 2018q1

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment: Oct-18 as a Share of Dec-07

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 2.2: Two-thirds of all Tennessee Counties Saw Positive Job Growth in the First Quarter
of 2018 (Year-Over-Year Growth in Total Covered Employment, March 2017 – March 2018)
Tennessee: 1.6%

Loss or no growth (0.0%)

0.1% to 1.6%
1.7% to 10.0%
Greater than 10.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of
2018 (the most recent quarter for which data
are available), statewide employment grew by
2.8 percent. During this period, there were 64
counties to report positive job growth, 41 of
which outgained the state average. Among these,
two saw gains nearing 20 percent: Meigs County
reported employment growth of 19.6 percent, and
Trousdale saw employment gains of 19.2 percent.
However, both of these counties are very small,
so these large percentage gains reflect only modest
increases in the number of new jobs (354 in Meigs
and 302 in Trousdale). By comparison, Davidson
County saw a 2.6 percent increase in employment

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 19

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.3: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate
Figure 2.3: Sits Slightly
Tennessee’s Below
Unemployment Rate Sits the
SlightlyRegional Average
Below the Regional Average, October 2018

6.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
October Unemployment Rate (%)

4.7
4.5
4.1
3.9
4.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
2.9
3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
WV LA MS KY AL SE* U.S. TN GA NC AR FL SC VA
*Southeast average
*Southeast
Source: Bureau average
of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

over the same period, representing an addition of remarkably low 3.7 percent for the year. However,
over 12,500 new workers. In contrast, there was it had reached as low as 3.3 percent in the fourth
one county where employment remained flat, and quarter of 2017, before drifting slightly upwards
30 counties which faced contractions. Polk County during the first three quarters of 2018 in response
saw the steepest decline, shrinking by 7.1 percent, to the rising number of unemployed.
followed by Clay County where employment fell Figure 2.3 presents the seasonally adjusted
by 5.5 percent, representing modest losses of unemployment rates of all southeastern states
155 and 86 workers respectively. In general, job for the month of October. Incredibly low
growth was stronger in or around the state’s larger unemployment rates across the region are reflective
metropolitan areas. of a healthy labor market. Tennessee’s monthly
Tennessee’s civilian labor force, which unemployment rate of 3.7 percent is right in
includes employed people and unemployed line with the national rate, and slightly below the
people actively searching for work, grew by southeast average of 3.9 percent. Virginia’s 2.9
2.0 percent in 2017. This was driven by a 3.1 percent rate is the lowest in the region, followed
percent increase in the number of employed by South Carolina, at 3.3 percent. Conversely,
people in Tennessee. As a result, the labor force the unemployment rates in West Virginia and
participation rate has slowly ticked upwards. The Louisiana sit at or above 5 percent.
number of unemployed people (i.e. unemployed Figure 2.4 shows non-seasonally adjusted
but actively searching for a job) also fell by a county-level unemployment rates for September
dramatic 20.0 percent in 2017, but has risen in 2018 (the most recent month for which these
each of the first three quarters of 2018. However, data were available). Lauderdale County had the
an increase in the number of unemployed could highest unemployment rate, at 6.5 percent, and
signal that more people are entering the labor was the only Tennessee county with a monthly
force but have yet to find work, which is a good unemployment rate above 6 percent. There
sign. Tennessee’s unemployment rate fell to a were 15 additional counties with unemployment

20 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.4: September Unemployment Rate
Figure 2.4: Roughly 75 percent of all Tennessee Counties are Reporting
Unemployment Rates Above the National Average (September 2018)
Tennessee: 3.7%
United States: 3.6%

2.7% to 3.7%
3.8% to 4.7%
4.8% to 5.7%
5.8% to 6.5%

Note:Note: Data
Data are not are not seasonally
seasonally adjusted. adjusted.
Figure 2.5: Tennessee’s Labor Force Participation Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Begins to Trend Upward but Remains Low
Figure 2.5: Tennessee’s Labor Force Participation Rate Begins to Trend Upward but Remains Low

Tennessee U.S.
68.0

67.0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)

66.0

65.0

64.0

63.0

62.0

61.0

60.0

59.0

58.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

rates between 5 and 6 percent, and 71 of the 95 (i.e. the percentage of the adult population in the
Tennessee counties reported unemployment rates civilian labor force) inched upwards from 60.1
above the non-seasonally adjusted national average percent in 2016 to 60.6 percent in 2017. Figure
of 3.6 percent. Conversely, there were 24 counties 2.5 shows that the labor force participation rates
with monthly rates equal to or below the national in both Tennessee and the nation have been on
average. The lowest unemployment rates were a downward trend from 2006 through 2015, but
found in the cluster of counties around Nashville, have both begun to tick upwards starting in 2016.
with Williamson County at 2.7 percent, and (The participation rate peaked in 2000 and has
Davidson and Rutherford counties at 2.9 percent. been in decline since then.) We can also see that
Tennessee’s labor force participation rate Tennessee’s labor force participation rate has

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 21

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

consistently trailed that of the nation’s. Why? skilled workforce can command higher wages
There are a number of possible factors, but two (as seen in Figure 2.6) and produce goods and
of the primary contributors are likely health and services more efficiently. However, on average
education. All else equal, a healthy population Tennessee has lower educational attainment rates
is more productive and more strongly attached and poorer health outcomes than the nation as a
to the labor force, and a more educated or more whole.
Figure 2.6: Among Tennesseans, Median
Earnings
Figure 2.6: Increase
Among Tennesseans, with
Median Educational
Earnings Increase withAttainment
Educational Attainment

Graduate or professional degree $56,683

Bachelor's degree $45,055

Some college or associate's degree $31,820

High school graduate (includes

$26,408
equivalency)

Less than high school graduate $19,941

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Note: Median annual earnings in 2016 inflation-adjusted dollars for persons aged 25 years and older.
Median annual earnings in 2016 inflation-adjusted dollars for persons aged 25 years and older.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012‒2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

22 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Health and Education in Tennessee

Figure 2.7 presents data on educational attainment rates over time for both Tennessee and the nation as a
whole. The first panel in Figure 2.7 reports the percentage of adults (aged 25 and older) with a high school degree
or higher, and shows that Tennessee lags behind the nation but has been catching up. In 2009, the high school
attainment gap between Tennessee and the U.S. was 2.8 percentage points, but by 2016 this gap had narrowed
to 1 percentage point, as the state’s high school attainment rate quickly rose from 81.8 percent in 2009 to 86.0
percent in 2016. Unfortunately, we do not see a similar pattern at the college level. The second panel in Figure
2.7 shows the percentage of adults 25 years of age or older with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Again, Tennessee
trails the nation, but in this case the state is barely catching up. In 2009, 22.4 percent of the state’s adult population
had a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 27.5 percent for the nation as a whole, a 5.1 percentage point gap.
By 2016, this gap narrowed by the slightest of margins, down to 4.9 percentage points, as Tennessee’s college
attainment rate grew to 25.4 percent, while the U.S. rate increased to 30.3 percent, but there is still a long way to
go. Nonetheless, improvements in college attainment rates are still apparent in Tennessee, which could help spur
economic growth. Moreover, forward-thinking education initiatives such as the Drive to 55, with its goal of having
55 percent of the Tennessee population holding a college credential (including a certificate or Associates degree,
both of which are not measured in the second panel of Figure 2.71) by the year 2025, and the Tennessee Promise,
which offers mentorship and tuition-free community or technical college to all Tennesseans, are key steps in the
right direction for improving educational attainment in the state.
Continued on Page 24
Figure 2.7: Educational Attainment Rates are
Lower in Tennessee
Figure 2.7: Educational Attainment Rates are Lower in Tennessee
High School Graduate or Higher Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Tennessee U.S. Tennessee U.S.
88.0 35.0

87.0
30.0
87.0

30.3
86.7

29.8

86.0
29.3
28.8
28.5
86.3

28.2
27.9
27.5
86.0

86.0

25.0
85.7

85.0
25.4
85.5

24.9
85.4

24.4
23.8
23.7
85.0

23.0
84.9

22.7
22.4

20.0
84.6

84.0
84.4
83.9

83.0 15.0
83.2

82.0
82.5

10.0
81.8

81.0
5.0
80.0

79.0 0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: Percentage of persons aged 25 years and older.
Percentage of persons aged 25 years and older.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012‒2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

1
The Census does not collect data on the number of certificates awards, but data on the number of associates degrees awarded over time in
Tennessee reveal a similar pattern as Figure 2.7 Panel B; healthy growth over time, but only a minimal narrowing of the gap compared to the nation
as a whole.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 23

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Health and Education in Tennessee, continued from Page 23

Figure 2.8 shows that lower educational attainment rates are not unique to Tennessee, but are an issue
throughout the southeast region. Florida and Virginia are the only southeast states with high school attainment
rates above the national average (first panel), and Virginia is the lone southeastern state with a college attainment
rate above the national average (second panel).
As noted above, Tennessee also has poorer health outcomes than the nation. According to the 2017 annual
report of American Health Rankings, Tennessee currently ranks 45th in overall health status, marking two years
in a row with a drop in the rankings.2 This poor showing is due to a number of factors including high rates of
unhealthy behaviors (smoking, drug deaths, obesity, and physical inactivity), violent crime rates, diabetes, and
cancer and cardiovascular death rates, as well as a low number of dentists and mental health providers. These
finding are consistent with CDC prevalence data from 2017 which show that more Tennesseans suffer from
serious health conditions than the average U.S. citizen (see Figure 2.9). In addition, Figure 2.10 shows that
Tennesseans also have higher rates of obesity (Panel A) and adult smoking (Panel B) and lower rates of health
care coverage (Panel C). Though the state’s obesity rate has been drifting downwards.

Figure 2.8: Educational Attainment Rates are

Figure 2.8: Educational Attainment Rates are Lower for
Lower for Most of Southeast
Most of the the Southeast
Region Region
High School Graduate or Higher Bachelor's Degree or Higher
90.0 40.0
89.0 35.0
36.9
88.6

88.0
30.0
87.0
30.3
29.4
29.0
87.2
87.0

27.9

25.0
26.5

86.0
25.4
86.3
86.0
86.0

24.0
85.8

23.0
22.7

85.0 20.0
21.5
85.3

21.0
85.2

19.6
84.8
84.6

84.0 15.0
83.8

83.0
10.0
83.0

82.0
81.0 5.0

80.0 0.0

Note: Percentage of persons aged 25 years and older.

Percentage of persons aged 25 years and older.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012‒2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

2
Retrieved from https://www.americashealthrankings.org/

24 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.9: More Tennesseans Suffer from

Serious Health Issues
Figure 2.9: More Tennesseans Suffer from Serious Health Issues

Tennessee U.S.
35.0
by
Issue by
Health issue

30.0
had health

25.0
(%)
Doctor (%)
Told had

20.0
aa doctor
Ever told

15.0
Percentage ever

10.0
Percentage

5.0

0.0
Arthritis Asthma Coronary Heart Stroke COPD Depression Diabetes Kidney Other Skin
Heart Attack Disease Cancer Cancer
disease

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Population
Source:BRFSS
Health. Centers for Disease
Prevalence Control
& Trends and[online].
Data Prevention, National
[accessed Center
Nov 28, forURL:
2018]. Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of
https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/brfssprevalence/.
Population Health. BRFSS Prevalence & Trends Data [online]. [accessed Nov 28, 2018]. URL: https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/brfssprevalence/.

Figure 2.10: In Tennessee, Obesity and Smoking Rates

Are Above the In
Figure 2.10: National Average,
Tennessee, While
Obesity and theRates
Smoking Percentage
Are
Above the National Average, While the Percentage
with Any Form of Health Care Coverage Is Below with Any Form
of Health Care Coverage Is Below the National Average
Do you have any kind of health Adult Smoking Rate (%)
care coverage? 30.0 TN
92.0 U.S.
TN
Share of Adult Respondents Saying Yes (%)

25.0
U.S.
90.0
20.0

88.0 15.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

86.0 Adult Obesity Rate (%)

[BMI 30.0‒99.8]
40.0 TN
84.0 U.S.
35.0
82.0
30.0

80.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Centers
Source: CentersforforDisease
DiseaseControl
Controlandand Prevention,
Prevention, National
National Center
Center for Chronic
for Chronic Disease
Disease Prevention
Prevention and Health
and Health Promotion,
Promotion, Division Division of
of Population
Population Health. BRFSS Prevalence & Trends Data [online]. [accessed Nov 28, 2018]. URL: https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/brfssprevalence/.
Health. BRFSS Prevalence & Trends Data [online]. [accessed Nov 28, 2018]. URL: https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/brfssprevalence/.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 25

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Income and Taxable Sales The per capita income figures are highly correlated
with the educational attainment of the states’
In Tennessee, nominal personal income grew population.
by 4.7 percent in 2017, which was slightly faster Figure 2.12 reports per capita personal income
than the 4.4 percent growth rate recorded for the in current dollars across all Tennessee counties in
nation as a whole. Growth in personal income was 2017 (the most recent year for which these data
largely driven by gains in proprietors’ income, which are available). Williamson County had the highest
increased by 8.1 percent, and rent, interest, and per capita personal income, by a wide margin, at
dividends, which expanded by 5.3 percent. Other $95,339, followed by Davidson ($63,063), and Fayette
labor income also expanded by 4.7 percent, wages ($53,942). These were also the only three counties
and salary income, which is the largest component of with per capita income levels above the national
personal income, grew by 4.4 percent, while transfer average of $51,631. There were only six additional
payments increased by a modest 2.9 percent. Nominal counties with per capita income levels above the
personal income per capita grew to $45,554 in 2017, state average of $45,517 – Hamilton, Knox, Shelby,
representing a 3.7 percent increase over 2016. Wilson, Sumner, and Loudon. All of these are in or
Figure 2.11 reports per capita personal income near the larger metro areas. Conversely, per capita
in current dollars for all southeastern states during income was lowest in the more rural counties, such
the second quarter of 2018. At $46,773 per person, as Lake County ($23,175) and Bledsoe County
Tennessee ranks third in the region, only behind ($25,705), both of which were less than 50 percent
Florida ($49,236 per person) and Virginia ($56,830 of the national average and only two times the 2017
per person). Per capita income in Tennessee was U.S. poverty threshold of $12,488 for a one person
slightly above the southeast average of $46,605, household.1 Like the figures for the southeastern
but well below the national average of $53,342 per states, county per capita income is highly correlated
person. Per capita income was lowest in Mississippi with educational attainment.
($37,903),Figure
followed by2.11: Per Capita
West Virginia ($39,920). Income Taxable
in Tennessee iscontinue
sales in Tennessee Slightlyto grow at a
Above the Southeast Average, but Well Below the
Figure 2.11: Per Capita IncomeNational
in TennesseeAverage
is Slightly Above the Southeast Average,
but Well Below the National Average
2018q2
Virginia $56,830
United States $53,342
Florida $49,236
Tennessee $46,773
Southeast Average $46,605
North Carolina $45,522
Georgia $45,378
Louisiana $45,245
South Carolina $42,583
Arkansas $42,490
Alabama $42,248
Kentucky $41,786
West Virginia $39,920
Mississippi $37,903
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1
U.S. Census Bureau

26 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

healthy clip. Compared to a high base where taxable
sales increased by 5.3 percent in 2016, taxable sales
grew by an additional 4.9 percent in 2017. On a fiscal
year (FY) basis, nominal taxable sales expanded by a
robust 7.3 percent in FY 2017-18. In 2017, taxable
sales growth was strongest in the transportation and
communication sector, which was up 26.8 percent.
However, this was largely driven by a 911 surcharge,
which prior to 2017 was collected by the Tennessee
Emergency Communications Board, and is now
collected and reported as sales tax revenue by the
Department of Revenue. Taxable sales in most other
Figure 2.12: Per Capita Personal Income, 2017
categories have performed well, with the exception
of liquor stores sales, which fell by 6.8 percent in
2017, but have since rebounded in the first half of
2018. This temporary dip may have been driven
by the law change to allow wine sales in grocery
stores, which took effect in mid-2016. Sales of
miscellaneous nondurable goods fell by 0.3 percent
and taxable sales in the hotel and motel sector only
grew by 0.3 percent in 2017; these areas saw much
stronger growth in the second quarter of 2018. In
addition, taxable sales from auto dealers only grew
by 2.1 percent, a considerable slowdown compared
to the 6.7 percent growth rate registered in 2016
and the 11.7 percent growth from 2015. This is
consistent with a slowdown in national auto sales, as
light vehicle sales seem to have reached their peak

Figure 2.12: Per Capita Personal Income, 2017

Tennessee: $45,517
United States: $51,640

Less than $30,000

$30,000 to $45,517
$45,518 to $51,640
Greater than $51,640

Figure 2.13: Light Vehicle Sales Start to Slow in

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. the U.S.

Figure 2.13: Light Vehicle Sales Start to Slow in the U.S.

20.0

18.0
Unit Sales (millions, annual rate)

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 27

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

for the current business cycle (see Figure 2.13). This
means that the state’s transportation equipment sector
will struggle to produce employment and production
gains for the remainder of this economic expansion.
Building permits (authorizing construction of
new privately-owned housing units) in the U.S. and
Tennessee continue to show positive growth, but at
a much slower clip than in recent years (see Figure
2.14). This is consistent with national data on housing
starts and existing home sales, which have both fallen
for three consecutive quarters. Moreover, the sum of
new and existing home sales has fallen to a 10-quarter
low, dating back to the first quarter of 2016. There
are a number of reasons for this drag in the housing
market. Housing prices and mortgage rates are on the
rise, which has dampened home sales. In addition,
construction costs have risen, leading to thinner profit
margins on the construction of new houses. This,
combined with labor shortages and a lack of available
building sites have led to a softening of housing starts
nationwide. Some of these issues are even more
Figure 2.14: Growth in New Building Permits
problematic in the larger metro areas.
Fiscal Update
The federal budget deficit is expected to increase
from $779.0 billion in 2017 to $950.1 million in 2018
(see Figure 2.15). Despite this increase, the budget
deficit is still 40 percent lower than the ballooned
deficit of 2011 (nearly $1.3 trillion). However, current
projections have the deficit expanding rapidly over the
next decade, and surpassing the 2011 deficit by 2026.
The growing deficit will be driven by both a reduction
in receipts, largely due to lower tax rates, as well as
increases in government expenditures.
In 2017, the national debt was $20.5 trillion, and
is projected to increase to $21.9 trillion in 2018. The
percentage of federal debt held by the public sat
at 76.2 percent in 2017, and is projected to pass 80
percent by 2020. By comparison, this figure was only
54.2 percent in 2009, and around 35 percent in 2007.
Growing national debt could limit policymakers’
options if faced with an economic downturn. Higher
debt will also contribute to higher interest rates and a
widened trade deficit.

Continues to Slow
Figure 2.14: Growth in New Building Permits Continues to Slow

40.0

30.0

20.0
Year-Over-Year Growth (%)

10.0

0.0

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

-40.0 Tennessee
U.S.
-50.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, Annual State Data.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, Annual State Data.

28 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.15: The Federal Deficit Will Grow in
2018
Figure 2.15: The Federal Deficit Will Grow in 2018

6,500 Receipts Surplus or Deficit (-) Outlays

6,000
Unified Budget Basis NSA, FY (bil $)

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

* forecast
*forecast
Source: U.S. Treasury and IHS Markit™ (copyright).

Source: U.S. Treasury and IHS Markit™ (copyright).

State Finances across the Nation second quarter of 2017. This would mark two
quarters of revenue growth above 9 percent during
States collected a total of $711.7 billion in tax the current fiscal year (in 2017Q4, tax revenues
revenues during the first three quarters of fiscal year were up 9.2 percent). Strong revenue growth in
2017/18 (2017Q3 – 2018Q1), representing a 7.1 the second quarter is driven by double-digit tax
percent increase over the last fiscal year-to-date.2 All revenue growth in both income tax categories, as
major categories of state tax revenue have shown corporate income tax revenues have expanded by
growth over the fiscal year-to-date (F-YTD), with a robust 17.9 percent and individual income tax
personal income tax revenues expanding the fastest, revenues grew by 10.8 percent. Sales tax revenues
at 11.6 percent, followed by motor vehicle fuel tax also increased by 5.1 percent.
revenues, which grew by 5.7 percent. Corporate
income tax revenues advanced by 5.5 percent while The Southeastern States and Tennessee
sales tax revenues increased by 4.0 percent.
State tax revenues grew in all U.S. regions As noted above, total tax collections in the
during F-YTD 2017/18. The Rocky Mountain southeastern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida,
region saw the strongest revenue growth, with Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North
gains of 10.6 percent, followed by the Far West Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia,
region, where revenues grew by 9.4 percent. and West Virginia) grew by 3.7 percent during the
Conversely, total tax revenue growth was slowest first three quarters of FY 2017/18. This was well
in the southeast region, which only grew by 3.7 below the 7.1 percent rate of growth registered
percent (more on this below). for the nation as a whole. Revenue growth in the
Preliminary data for the second quarter of region was largely muted by the corporate income
2018 estimate that total state tax revenue growth tax, which fell by 2.1 percent for the region, due to
will accelerate to 9.1 percent compared to the declines in Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
2
Dadayan, L. (October 2018). “State Revenues Soar in the First Quarter of 2018.” Urban Institute.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 29

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 2.16 shows total tax revenue growth October 2018, tax collections totaled $3.52 billion
among the 12 southeastern states for F-YTD for the fiscal year-to-date (August 2018 – October
2017/18. Total tax revenue growth was strongest 2018), representing a $164.4 million or 4.9 percent
in West Virginia (up 7.2 percent), followed by increase over last fiscal year-to-date. Nearly three-
South Carolina at 4.9 percent, and South Carolina quarters of the revenue growth was driven by sales
at 4.9 percent. Mississippi saw the softest growth, tax collections, which are up $123.1 million or 5.7
advancing by only 1.3 percent, while Tennessee percent for the fiscal year-to-date. Franchise and
was not far behind at 1.4 percent. excise tax revenues (corporate taxes) have also
More recent tax revenue data from the risen by $10.9 million or 2.3 percent compared to
Figure
Tennessee 2.16:
Department Totalshow
of Revenue Tax that Revenue
in the same Growth
period last year.in Tennessee
was Near the Bottom Among Southeastern States
During the First Three Quarters of Fiscal Year 2018
Figure 2.16: Total Tax Revenue Growth in Tennessee was Near the Bottom Among
Southeastern States During the First Three Quarters of Fiscal Year 2018

8.0
7.2
7.0
Nominal Percentage Change,
FYTD2018 vs FYTD20 (%)

6.0

4.9
5.0 4.7 4.6
4.0
4.0 3.7
3.4 3.4 3.4
3.0
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.4 1.3
1.0

0.0
WV SC GA VA FL SE* KY LA NC AL AR TN MS

*Southeast average

Source:
*Southeast average Dadayan, Lucy. Urban Institute, State Tax and Economic Review, 2018 Q1. October 2018, State Tax Revenues
Soar Lucy.
Source: Dadayan, in theUrban
First Quarter
Institute, Stateof
Tax2018.
and Economic Review, 2018 Q1. October 2018, State Tax Revenues Soar in the First Quarter of 2018.

30 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED

Recession Readiness in Tennessee

The current economic expansion will be the longest in the post-World-War-II era by the end of the
current fiscal year. While this does not mean that a recession is imminent, historical evidence on the
frequency of recessions suggests that it is prudent for Tennessee to continue preparing for the next
downturn. Recessions diminish economic activity, which leads to lower tax revenues and reduced
ability to maintain expenditures. Given the difficulty of making dramatic expenditure cuts, the state must
manage through a recession with a series of tools including targeted expenditure cuts, prudent use of
reserves, and in some cases additional revenues. The state’s response to a recession is made more
problematic because of the time that typically passes before policy makers recognize that a recession is
underway.
A recent report by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research examined how an
economic downturn might affect Tennessee’s fiscal position. Simulating outcomes of severe and modest
recessions using Tennessee’s 2007-09 and 2001 experiences, respectively, as guidelines, the report
found that a modest recession would only cause a small revenue reduction over the first couple of years
and slower growth for the next few years. Conversely, in a severe recession, revenues would fall in the
first year, fall sharply in the second year, and would not return to pre-recession levels until at least the
fourth year.
While prudent policy-making since the last recession has positioned the state well in terms of
recession readiness, it is important to recognize that even a mild recession could create substantial
deficits in the absence of expenditure controls. Analysis suggests that current reserves are sufficient
to weather a modest 2001-style downturn as long as all non-recurrent expenditures are eliminated
quickly and recurrent expenditure growth is reduced below recent patterns. However, a more severe
recession, like that of 2007-09, would create large and growing deficits sufficient to exhaust current
reserves quickly and require elimination of all non-recurrent expenditures and no recurrent expenditure
growth for multiple years. Unfortunately, the severity of a recession may not be recognized for some
time, increasing the challenge of Tennessee’s budget management during the recession. These findings
indicate that prudent policy includes continuing to build reserves, maintaining the revenue structure to
the extent possible, and limiting expenditure growth as the state enhances preparedness for a future
recession.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 31

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
The short-term outlook for Tennessee calls
for modest growth in 2018 and 2019 and then
a slowdown starting in 2020 and beyond as the
state economy operates at full capacity. In 2017
and 2018, economic growth at both the state
and national level was boosted by the 2017 tax
cuts and 2018 budget act, in addition to high
consumer and business confidence, and strong
employment growth. As employment growth
slows, and the effects of the 2017 Tax Act and
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 dwindle, we
should see a weakening of economic growth.
A host of other factors, including interest rates,
tariffs and the value of the dollar in international
currency markets will add weight to the downward
pressures on growth. This pattern is built into our
forecast, as inflation-adjusted GDP is projected
to increase by 2.6 percent in 2019 and then slow
to 1.9 percent growth in 2020, closely in line
with GDP projections for the national economy.
Nonfarm employment growth in Tennessee will
also closely align with national employment growth,
seeing decent gains in 2018 and 2019, with more
muted growth thereafter arising primarily from
new entrants to the labor market. Tennessee’s
manufacturing employment will follow a similar
trend, while the state unemployment rate will start
drifting upwards early on in the 2020’s.
Table 2.1 provides a snapshot of the short-
term economic outlook for both Tennessee and
the U.S. as a whole. Nonfarm employment in
Tennessee will advance by 1.8 percent and 1.4
percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively, before
slowing to 0.9 percent in 2020. Most broad
sectors of the state economy will see employment
gains in 2019 and 2020. In 2019, job growth
will largely be driven by the service sectors, as
professional and business services will see gains
of 2.6 percent, and employment in the education
and health services sector will increase by 2.1
percent. Leisure and hospitality employment will
also grow by 1.4 percent, and jobs in the financial
activities sector will increase by 1.4 percent.
Conversely, the information sector will see
modest job losses equating to 0.5 percent in 2019
and no gains in 2020.
32 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Manufacturing employment will increase by
1.6 percent in 2019 and a slower 0.6 percent in
2020. Despite consistent job growth since 2011,
employment levels in the state’s manufacturing
sector are still well below pre-recession levels (see
Figure 2.17). On the jobs front, the manufacturing
sector was gutted during the Great Recession,
shedding over 100 thousand jobs from 2005 to
2010. However, this downward trend started
well before the recession. In 1995 there were
527.7 thousand Tennesseans employed by the
manufacturing sector, but by 2005 this number
had fallen to 408.8 thousand. While the Great
Recession may not have initially triggered this purge
of manufacturing jobs, it certainly accelerated this
downward trend, which has slowly begun to unwind
in recent years. However, it seems unlikely that
manufacturing employment will revert back to their
pre-2000 levels anytime in the foreseeable future.
In the near-term, future growth in
manufacturing employment will largely be
driven by employment gains in durable goods
manufacturing, which will increase by 2.2 percent
in 2019 and 0.8 percent in 2020. Within the durable
goods manufacturing sector, five subsectors will
see job gains exceeding 2 percent in 2019: wood
products, nonmetallic minerals, fabricated metals,
transportation equipment, and miscellaneous
durables. Conversely, computers and electronics
manufacturing will face continued job losses
throughout the short-term forecast horizon.
Employment growth in nondurable goods
manufacturing will be somewhat muted over
the short-term forecast horizon, increasing
by only 0.5 percent in 2019 and 0.2 percent in
2020. Among the broad sectors of nondurable
goods manufacturing, beverage and tobacco
manufacturing will see the strongest employment
growth, expanding by 3.1 percent in 2019 and 1.4
percent in 2020. Plastics and rubber manufacturing
will also see healthy employment growth, while
employment in food and paper manufacturing
will remain relatively flat over the next two
years. Conversely, chemical manufacturing and
miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing will
see some labor force contractions.
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED

Table 2.1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted, January 2019
History Forecast Data Annual
2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S. GDP (BIL2012$) SAAR… 18511.6 18671.5 18791.9 18909.6 19029.1 19141.6 19249.0 19344.5 19446.6 19524.4 19603.2 19680.6 18050.7 18574.7 19082.3 19479.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 4.16 3.50 2.60 2.53 2.55 2.39 2.26 2.00 2.13 1.61 1.62 1.59 2.22 2.90 2.73 2.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 2.87 3.04 3.12 3.20 2.80 2.52 2.43 2.30 2.19 2.00 1.84 1.74 2.22 2.90 2.73 2.08
U.S. GDP (BIL$) SAAR…….... 20411.9 20659.0 20904.3 21177.5 21426.9 21680.5 21935.1 22178.9 22426.1 22659.0 22885.7 23125.1 19485.4 20504.1 21555.0 22537.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 7.61 4.93 4.83 5.33 4.79 4.82 4.78 4.52 4.53 4.22 4.06 4.25 4.16 5.23 5.13 4.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 5.44 5.47 5.41 5.67 4.97 4.94 4.93 4.73 4.66 4.51 4.33 4.27 4.16 5.23 5.13 4.56
TN PERSONAL INCOME
(MIL2012$) SAAR……............ 293222 295091 296486 297394 299179 300706 302571 304388 306602 308235 310241 311695 288183 294246 299962 307366
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 1.43 2.57 1.90 1.23 2.42 2.06 2.50 2.42 2.94 2.15 2.63 1.89 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 1.90 2.09 2.31 1.78 2.03 1.90 2.05 2.35 2.48 2.50 2.53 2.40 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47
U.S. PERSONAL INCOME
(BIL2012$) SAAR…………...... 16196 16299 16347 16418 16533 16649 16769 16906 17038 17126 17234 17334 15867 16237 16592 17076
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 2.22 2.57 1.19 1.76 2.82 2.84 2.91 3.30 3.17 2.08 2.54 2.34 2.57 2.33 2.19 2.91
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.41 2.41 2.15 1.93 2.08 2.15 2.58 2.97 3.06 2.86 2.77 2.53 2.57 2.33 2.19 2.91
TN PERSONAL INCOME
(MIL$) SAAR………………...... 316832 320103 323569 326724 330527 333978 337729 341385 345247 349019 352790 356477 305691 318668 332239 347110
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 3.43 4.19 4.40 3.96 4.74 4.24 4.57 4.40 4.60 4.44 4.39 4.25 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 4.13 4.32 4.47 4.00 4.32 4.33 4.38 4.49 4.45 4.50 4.46 4.42 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48
U.S. PERSONAL INCOME
(BIL$) SAAR............................ 17500 17680 17840 18038 18265 18491 18718 18961 19186 19392 19597 19824 16831 17585 18378 19284
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... 4.24 4.19 3.67 4.50 5.15 5.05 4.98 5.29 4.84 4.37 4.30 4.71 4.38 4.48 4.51 4.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.... 4.66 4.65 4.31 4.15 4.37 4.59 4.92 5.12 5.04 4.87 4.70 4.55 4.38 4.48 4.51 4.93
TN NONFARM JOBS
(THOUS).................................. 3057.5 3073.7 3083.0 3094.5 3103.5 3110.8 3117.9 3124.9 3132.5 3138.8 3145.3 3150.0 3011.2 3063.8 3106.7 3135.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR....... 2.21 2.14 1.22 1.49 1.17 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.97 0.81 0.83 0.60 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 1.73 1.97 1.86 1.76 1.50 1.21 1.13 0.98 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.80 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92
U.S. NONFARM JOBS (MIL).... 148.7 149.3 149.9 150.5 151.1 151.6 152.0 152.4 153.1 153.1 153.3 153.6 146.6 149.0 151.3 153.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ 1.72 1.69 1.67 1.55 1.44 1.32 1.20 1.10 1.66 0.23 0.45 0.63 1.58 1.63 1.53 1.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 1.62 1.67 1.70 1.66 1.59 1.50 1.38 1.27 1.32 1.05 0.86 0.74 1.58 1.63 1.53 1.12
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)......... 350.2 354.1 355.9 356.9 357.7 358.4 359.1 359.5 359.9 360.3 360.8 361.1 348.8 352.3 358.0 360.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…..... 1.28 4.46 2.06 1.10 0.97 0.74 0.76 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.53 0.33 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 0.39 1.54 1.78 2.22 2.14 1.22 0.89 0.74 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.45 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
U.S. MFG JOBS (MIL)………... 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.4 12.7 12.9 12.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... 2.39 1.81 2.13 1.95 1.84 0.00 1.09 -0.55 -1.74 -1.40 -1.82 -0.89 0.74 2.11 1.67 -0.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 2.12 2.29 2.26 2.07 1.93 1.48 1.22 0.59 -0.30 -0.66 -1.38 -1.46 0.74 2.11 1.67 -0.44
TN UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE %).................................. 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE (%)................................. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.4
CHAINED PRICE INDEX,
GDP (2012=100.0)…............... 110.2 110.6 111.2 112.0 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.5 107.9 110.3 113.0 115.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 3.05 1.67 2.23 2.73 2.19 2.38 2.46 2.47 2.35 2.57 2.40 2.62 1.92 2.24 2.36 2.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.44 2.31 2.24 2.42 2.20 2.38 2.44 2.37 2.42 2.46 2.45 2.49 1.92 2.24 2.36 2.43
U.S. PERS CONSUMP DEFL
(2012=100.0)…………............. 108.1 108.5 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.2 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.4 106.1 108.3 110.8 112.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 1.98 1.58 2.45 2.69 2.26 2.14 2.02 1.93 1.61 2.25 1.72 2.32 1.76 2.10 2.27 1.96
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 2.19 2.19 2.12 2.17 2.25 2.39 2.28 2.09 1.92 1.95 1.88 1.97 1.76 2.10 2.27 1.96
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)..... 2.505 2.517 2.535 2.553 2.570 2.585 2.597 2.609 2.617 2.633 2.642 2.659 2.451 2.513 2.576 2.625
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... 1.66 2.00 2.90 2.90 2.63 2.31 1.98 1.85 1.14 2.51 1.33 2.66 2.14 2.51 2.53 1.90
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.65 2.61 2.51 2.36 2.61 2.69 2.46 2.19 1.82 1.87 1.71 1.91 2.14 2.51 2.53 1.90
BANK PRIME INTEREST
RATE (%)................................. 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.4
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
(% per annum)…..................... 1.737 1.923 2.193 2.440 2.690 2.942 3.160 3.200 3.420 3.420 3.420 3.420 1.002 1.825 2.808 3.365
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE
RATE (%)................................. 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.2
TN TAXABLE SALES
(MIL2012$).............................. 30714 30932 31052 31141 31254 31420 31571 31716 31890 31997 32153 32275 118117 123208 125386 127755
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... 2.72 2.87 1.56 1.15 1.46 2.14 1.94 1.84 2.21 1.36 1.96 1.53 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr... 4.57 3.47 2.36 2.07 1.76 1.58 1.67 1.84 2.03 1.84 1.84 1.76 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)… 33187 33554 33889 34212 34529 34897 35240 35571 35909 36231 36562 36912 125303 133435 138877 144273
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ 4.75 4.49 4.04 3.88 3.75 4.33 3.99 3.81 3.86 3.63 3.71 3.88 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 6.86 5.73 4.52 4.29 4.04 4.00 3.99 3.97 4.00 3.82 3.75 3.77 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,
NONFARM (2012$)………….... 46479 46646 46680 46763 46920 47081 47256 47389 47540 47631 47805 47933 46343 46620 47005 47591
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. -1.68 1.44 0.30 0.71 1.34 1.39 1.49 1.13 1.28 0.77 1.46 1.08 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 0.31 0.20 0.82 0.19 0.95 0.93 1.23 1.34 1.32 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,
NONFARM ($).......................... 50222 50599 50944 51375 51836 52291 52747 53150 53532 53934 54361 54820 49158 50488 52062 53744
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 0.26 3.04 2.75 3.43 3.64 3.56 3.54 3.08 2.91 3.04 3.21 3.42 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.51 2.39 2.96 2.36 3.21 3.34 3.54 3.45 3.27 3.14 3.06 3.14 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 33

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED

Figure 2.17: Manufacturing Employment in
Both Tennessee and the U.S. Are Still Below
Figure 2.17: Manufacturing Employment in Both Tennessee and the U.S.
Pre-Recession Levels
is Still Below Pre-Recession Levels

575.0 20.0
Tennessee U.S.
Tennessee Employment (thous)

U.S. Employment (mil)

525.0 18.0

475.0 16.0

425.0 14.0

375.0 12.0

325.0 10.0

275.0 8.0
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Source: Bureau of Labor

Source: Statistics;
Bureau IHS Markit™
of Labor (copyright);
Statistics; and Boyd Center
IHS Markit™ for Business
(copyright); andand Economic
Boyd CenterResearch.
for Business and Economic Research.

The state unemployment rate will hover in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020, due in part to
around 3.5-3.6 percent over the next four years, a tightening labor market. Rent, interest, and
and then begin drifting up towards the long-term dividend income will also see strong growth,
4.0-4.2 percent range in 2022 (see Figure 2.18). advancing by 4.1 percent in 2019 and 6.2 percent
The national unemployment rate will follow a in 2020, and transfer payments will increase by
similar trend. These incredibly low unemployment 4.0 percent in both 2019 and 2020. Per capita
rates are a sign of a strong labor market operating personal income in Tennessee will grow by 3.4
at full employment, suggesting limited room for percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, while
future growth. national per capita income will increase at faster
Tennessee’s civilian labor force will see a rate of growth over the next two years (3.8
slight upward tick in 2018, increasing from 60.6 percent in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020). As a
percent in 2017 to 60.8 percent in 2018. This result, the 2020 forecasted per capita income level
small increase will occur because of a 1.7 percent of $50,428 per person in Tennessee will only
increase in the number of employed people, equate to 87.1 percent of the national average of
resulting in 48 thousand more people in the state $57,851.
labor force. The labor force participation rate will Taxable sales in Tennessee are expected to
remain unchanged in 2019 before seeing a slight increase by 4.1 percent in 2019 and 3.9 percent
dip in subsequent years as employment growth in 2020. Taxable sales from the transportation
slows. and communication category will remain flat
Nominal personal income in Tennessee is through 2019 and 2020, while all other broad
projected to grow by 4.3 percent in 2019 and 4.5 categories will see gains in each of the next two
percent in 2020. All components of personal years. Miscellaneous durable goods sales will
income will see healthy gains over the next two increase by 6.9 percent in 2019 and 5.0 percent in
years. Wages and salaries, the largest component 2020. Hotels and motels sales will also see robust
of personal income, will increase by 4.6 percent growth of 5.3 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in

34 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED

Figure 2.18: Low Unemployment Rates for the
State and the Nation Suggest Full Employment
Figure 2.18: Low Unemployment Rates for the State and the Nation Suggest Full Employment

11.0 Tennessee
10.0 U.S.

9.0
Unemployment Rate (%)

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

2020, as the state’s tourist sector remains strong. seem to have reached a maximum and are
While auto dealer sales will grow at a slower rate trending down. On a fiscal year basis, taxable sales
(compared to previous years) of 2.6-2.7 percent are projected to increase by 4.6 percent in fiscal
over the next two years, as auto sales nationwide year 2018/19 and 4.0 percent in 2019/20.

2.4. TENNESSEE FORECAST AT A GLANCE

• Inflation-adjusted GDP will increase by 2.6 percent in 2019 and then weaken to 1.9 percent growth
in 2020.

• Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee will expand by 1.4 percent in 2019, representing an increase of 42,900
jobs compared to the year prior. Nonfarm employment growth will slow to 0.9 percent in 2020. A
similar pattern is on the horizon for state manufacturing employment, which will increase by 1.6
percent in 2019, but only 0.6 percent in 2020.

• The state’s annual unemployment rate will rest in the 3.5-3.6 range through 2020.

• Nominal personal income in Tennessee will grow by 4.3 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2020
due to upward pressure from an already tight labor market.

• Sales tax revenue growth will slow from 4.6 percent in the 2018-19 fiscal year to 4.0 percent in
2019-20.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 35

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY
Introduction
Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex
encompasses the supply chain from farm and
forest to consumers of the end products, such
as retail foods, clothing, paper, and furniture.
The agri-forestry industrial complex includes
crop and livestock farming, timber removal and
sawmills, and agricultural inputs production such as
agricultural machinery, fertilizers, soil amendments,
and herbicides. The complex also includes
downstream manufacturers of food and fiber
goods (i.e., food and beverage products, textiles
and textile products, wood, paper, and furniture
products) that demand goods from farming and
first-stage forestry operations. This section of the
report focuses on economic indicators for three
main areas related to the agri-forestry industrial
complex:3 a) primary agriculture and forestry,
which includes farming and first-stage forestry;
b) secondary agriculture and forestry, which
includes manufacturing and processing facilities;
and c) well-being indicators for rural communities,
which provide important infrastructural,
resource, and labor support for the agri-forestry
industrial complex. A special feature focuses on
how agricultural trade and trade policies affect
Tennessee’s agricultural sector.
Agriculture and Primary Forestry
Agricultural Land Use and Farm Size
In 2017, farming operations occupied 10.8
million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent
of the state’s nearly 27 million acres of land
area (USDA/NASS 2018e). Approximately
49 percent of the farmland in Tennessee was
operated as cropland in 2012 (USDA/NASS 2012).
Tennessee’s farming industry is characterized by
two types of farming operations: larger farms that
rely primarily on farm income, and small farms,
many of which are operated by part-time farmers.
3
Defined as the primary industries typically associated with agriculture and forest operations such as growing crops, the breeding and feeding of livestock, and
the management and logging of trees. Also included in the industrial complex are input supplying industries and value-added subsectors, which include food and
beverage manufacturing, apparel and textiles, and forestry products manufacturing.
36 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Of Tennessee’s 65,900 farming operations, average
farm size in 2017 was around 164 acres, compared
with the U.S. average of 444 acres. Tennessee ranks
11th in the U.S. in terms of the number of farming
operations (USDA/NASS, 2018e).
Tennessee’s Crops and Livestock
The 2017 value of cash farm receipts from
crops and livestock in Tennessee was just over $3.53
billion, with $1.41 billion from animals and $2.13
billion from crops (Table 2.2). Overall, Tennessee
ranks 30th in the U.S. in cash farm receipts (USDA/
ERS, 2018a). The top 10 Tennessee agricultural
products in value of cash farm receipts are listed
in Table 2.2, along with the state’s ranking for each
product. In 2017, the largest value of cash farm
receipts was derived from soybeans, followed by
cattle and calves. These were followed in magnitude
by broilers, corn, cotton, hay, dairy products,
tobacco, wheat, and hogs. The top 10 commodities
in the state accounted for over 85 percent of 2017
cash farm receipts. In terms of cash receipts,
Tennessee ranks in the top 20 states for several
commodities (bold and italics in Table 2.2) and
in the top 10 states for tobacco and cotton. For
many commodities, following national trends, price
declines pushed cash receipts downward on average
from 2013 to 2017. Wheat and corn experienced
the largest average declines at -19.0 percent and
-8.6 percent, respectively, while hogs and cotton
experienced the largest positive increase at 9.6
percent and 7.3 percent, respectively. Market forces
driving these trends will be discussed in the crops
and livestock sections of this chapter.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries
Animals and animal products accounted
for 39.8 percent ($1.4 billion) of Tennessee
agricultural receipts in 2017. Based on 2017 cash
receipts, cattle and calves was the second largest
agricultural sector in Tennessee with cash receipts
exceeding $566 million in 2017 and accounting
for 16.0 percent of total agricultural cash receipts.
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL

ECONOMY, CONTINUED

Table 2.2: Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts, 2013-2017

Commodity 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Avg Annual Growth (2013-2017) Ranking in U.S. in 2017*
All commodities 4,092 4,255 3,657 3,293 3,534 -3.18% 30
Animals & products 1,550 1,806 1,557 1,317 1,405 -1.50% 32
Crops 2,542 2,449 2,100 1,976 2,128 -4.03% 27

Tennessee’s Top 10 in 2017

1. Soybeans 815 835 745 680 759 -1.36% 16
2. Cattle & calves 626 813 693 537 566 -0.47% 26
3. Broilers 576 598 528 444 494 -3.10% 17
4. Corn 573 487 397 416 391 -8.63% 19
5. Cotton 284 236 139 140 261 7.27% 8
6. Hay 119 126 127 131 149 5.82% 15
7. Dairy (Milk) 163 191 139 119 130 -3.85% 31
8. Tobacco 111 115 117 97 94 -3.90% 4
9. Wheat 227 215 137 121 93 -18.99% 18
10. Hogs 60 71 63 74 85 9.59% 19
*Italics indicate at least top 20 ranking in the US
Source: (USDA/ERS, 2018a)

Broiler production was a close third, totaling more
than $494 million and representing 14.0 percent
of cash receipts. Dairy products and milk (3.7
percent of cash receipts), hogs (2.4 percent), and
chicken eggs (1.9 percent) rounded out the top
five Tennessee rankings for animals and animal
products based on cash receipts in 2017 (USDA/
ERS, 2018a). Tennessee markets for animals and
animal products are influenced by national and
international market forces. Thus, changes in the
national and international market impact local
prices, production, and receipts.
The key issues impacting the 2018 animal and
animal products markets have been associated with
production, trade agreements, tariffs, and relatively
strong demand for meat products. Through the
first week of October 2018, year-to-date red meat
(beef, veal, pork, lamb/mutton) production was
2.8 percent higher than the previous year (USDA/
NASS, 2018b). Similarly, poultry production
through the end of September was 0.7 percent
greater than the same nine months in 2017
(USDA/AMS, 2018b). Milk production the first
eight months of 2018 was 1.1 percent higher than
the previous year (USDA/NASS, 2018d).
Stronger international demand for meat and
increased domestic production through the first
eight months of the year has led to increased
exports on a quantity and value basis. U.S. beef
exports from January through August increased
13.8 percent compared to 2017 and totaled 1.53
billion pounds. Total beef export value over the
first eight months of 2018 totaled $4.93 billion,
an increase of 21.2 percent compared to 2017.
Similarly, pork exports the first eight months
of 2018 were 6.0 percent higher than 2017 and
totaled 2.90 billion pounds. The pork export value
totaled $3.60 billion, an increase of 3.8 percent
compared to 2017 (US/MEF, 2018). On the dairy
side, exports of most dairy products the first eight
months of 2018 have exceeded year ago levels.
The total aggregate volume of U.S. dairy exports
through August totaled 3.38 billion pounds, which
is an increase of 17.4 percent compared to 2017,
while total dairy export value is up 4.5 percent to
$3.82 billion (U.S. Dairy Export Council, 2018).
Despite increased meat production and the
negative influence of trade issues, calf and feeder
cattle prices in Tennessee through the first nine
months of 2018 increased 5.7 and 3.6 percent,

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 37

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL

ECONOMY, CONTINUED

respectively, compared to the same nine months
in 2017 (USDA/NASS, 2018b). Thus, it would
appear demand for beef exceeded any negative
impacts from increased production and trade
disruptions. Alternatively, Tennessee milk prices
for the Appalachian and Southeast Federal Milk
Marketing Orders through the first eight months
of 2018 declined 9.7 percent and 9.0 percent,
respectively, compared to the same eight months in
2017 (USDA/AMS, 2018c).
Tennessee ranked 16th nationally in terms of
total cattle and calve inventory as of January 1,
2018 (1.83 million head including 910,000 beef
cows and 40,000 dairy cows), which is one spot
lower than a year ago. Tennessee continues to
rank 12th in total beef cow numbers (USDA/
NASS, 2018b). The state is ranked 2nd nationally
in meat goat numbers at 104,000 head (USDA/
NASS, 2018c).
The beef, pork, and poultry sectors have
continued to expand production due to strong
meat demand and profitability, but it appears
expansion slowed in 2018. Expansion in these
industries is expected to continue slowing in
2019. The dairy industry also continues to
expand production nationally, despite a continued
contraction in the number of dairy farms.
Tennessee beef cattle numbers are expected to
remain steady in 2019, while dairy cattle numbers
will likely decline further.
Row Crop Production
In terms of harvested acreage, Tennessee’s
four largest row crops are corn, cotton, soybeans,
and wheat. Based on 2017 national cash receipts
by commodity, Tennessee ranks 19th in corn
production (0.8 percent of U.S. total); 8th in
cotton production (3.3 percent of U.S. total); 16th
in soybean production (1.9 percent of U.S. total);
and 18th in wheat production (1.1 percent of U.S.
total) (USDA/ERS, 2018a). Harvested acreage,
production, and yield from 2013 to 2018 for the
four principal row crops are shown in Table 2.3.
In 2018, harvested acreage for Tennessee row

Table 2.3: Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production,

and Yield for Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, and Wheat, 2013-2018
5-Year Change 5-Year Change 2017
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Average Average to 2018 to 2018
Corn
Harvested Acres (million) 0.81 0.84 0.73 0.83 0.71 0.69 0.78 -13% -4%
Production (million bushels) 126.4 141.1 116.8 125.3 121.4 119.2 126.2 -6% -2%
Yield (bu/acre) 156 168 160 151 171 174 161 8% 2%
Cotton
Harvested Acres (million) 0.23 0.27 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.36 0.25 44% 4%
Production (‘000 bales) 414 494 305 575 732 765 504 52% 5%
Yield (bu/acre) 853 878 1,046 1,104 1,033 1,034 982.8 5% 0%
Soybeans
Harvested Acres (million) 1.55 1.61 1.72 1.63 1.66 1.67 1.63 2% 1%
Production (million bushels) 72.1 74.1 79.1 73.4 83.0 83.5 76.3 9% 1%
Yield (bu/acre) 47 46 46 45 50 50 47 7% 0%
Wheat
Harvested Acres (million) 0.58 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.29 0.41 -31% 4%
Production (million bushels) 40.8 31.4 26.9 24.5 19.3 18.5 28.6 -35% -4%
Yield (bu/acre) 71 66 68 73 70 65 70 -7% -7%
*Estimated. Source: USDA/NASS, 2018a

38 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
crops were estimated to be 1.67 million acres of
soybeans, 690,000 acres of corn, 360,000 acres
of cotton, and 290,000 acres of wheat. Soybean
acreage was up 1 percent from 2017 and 2 percent
above the previous 5-year average; corn acreage
was down 4 percent compared to 2017 and 13
percent lower than the 5-year average; cotton
acreage was up 4 percent compared to 2017 and
44 percent higher than the 5-year average; and
wheat acreage was up 4 percent from 2017 and 31
percent lower than the five-year average (USDA/
NASS, 2018a). State average corn and soybean
yields for 2018 are projected to be all-time records
of 174 bushels per acre and 50 bushels per acre,
respectively. Cotton yield (1,034 pounds per acre)
is estimated to be the second highest on record.
Wheat yield was 65 bushels per acre, 5 bushels per
acre below last year and the five-year average. Wet
weather in fall 2018 has created challenges with
harvesting the crop in a timely manner and had
detrimental effects on the quality of the crop. For
soybeans and cotton, in particular, reduced quality
can result in substantial price discounts.
Prices received by Tennessee producers are
influenced by local, national, and global market
forces. Nationally, U.S. producers experienced five
consecutive years above trend-line yields, resulting in
record or near record national production. Record
crop production has been achieved as a result of
improved production technologies (seed genetics,
chemicals, fertilizers, etc.) and farm management,
and beneficial growing conditions for most of the
nation’s primary row crop production regions.
Global reserves of corn, cotton, and wheat
have started to decline from recent highs, while
soybean stocks have grown for five consecutive
Table 2.4: Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2013-2018*
Commodity 2013 2014
Corn $4.87 $3.81
Cotton $0.80 $0.63
Soybeans $13.00 $10.60
Wheat $7.00 $5.63
*Projected based on average prices to date in the commodities marketing year.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
years. Trade disruptions have resulted in reduced
access to markets for U.S. agricultural production,
especially China. Trade restrictions/tariffs have a
negative impact on the prices Tennessee producers
receive for their commodities. Currently, 2018
marketing year average corn prices are 10 percent
below the 5-year average and 1 percent above
2017; soybean prices are 22 percent below the
5-year average and 16 percent below 2017; wheat
prices are 2 percent above the 5-year average and
20 percent above 2017; and cotton prices are 17
percent above the 5-year average and 18 percent
above 2017 (Table 2.4).
Farm Safety Net Payments
The Agricultural Act of 2014 (the Farm Bill)
authorized the federal government’s safety net for
row crop farmers for the 2014-2018 crop years. The
Farm Bill expired on September 30, 2018. A new
Farm Bill or an extension of the current Farm Bill
will likely be implemented in 2019; however, there
is a great deal of uncertainty. The current safety net
for row crop producers is composed of two primary
programs: commodity programs and crop insurance.
Commodity program payments to Tennessee
producers for the 2017 crop year (payments received
by producers in the 2018 calendar year) were $7.8
million from Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and
$3.7 million from Price Loss Coverage (PLC), down
substantially from 2016 ($61.9 million for ARC and
$8.2 million for PLC) (USDA/FSA, 2018). The
decrease in payments to producers is indicative of
multiple consecutive years of low prices and above-
trend-line yields (lower revenue guarantees under
the ARC program). Seed cotton was made eligible
for ARC and PLC payments through the Bipartisan
2015 2016 2017 5-Year Average 2018*
$3.92 $3.66 $3.55 $3.96 $3.57
$0.62 $0.70 $0.68 $0.68 $0.80
$9.29 $9.78 $9.70 $10.47 $8.18
$5.22 $4.64 $4.60 $5.42 $5.51
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 39
CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
Budget Act of 2018. The seed cotton inclusion will
increase total payments to producers for the 2018
crop year.
Federal crop insurance continues to be an
important risk management tool for Tennessee
producers. For the 2018 crop year, 23,867 policies
were sold, covering liabilities of $1.012 billion.
Total crop insurance premiums were $91.0 million
($61.9 million paid by the federal government
and $29.1 million paid by producers) (USDA/
RMA, 2018). Crop insurance is an essential risk
management tool used by producers to protect
against price, revenue, and production risk during
the growing season.
Substantial changes in domestic farm policy
in the next Farm Bill are unlikely. However,
contentious issues that could directly affect
Tennessee producers and are likely to emerge in
the forthcoming negotiations are: 1) separating
nutrition from other Farm Bill titles; 2) interactions
between the commodity program, crop insurance,
and conservation titles; 3) means testing for crop
insurance premium subsidies and/or commodity
program payments; and 4) updating program
yields, reference prices, and commodity program
benchmark formulas. A great deal of uncertainty in
agricultural policy will remain until a new Farm Bill
is agreed upon.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Trade Retaliation Programs
On July 24, 2018, the USDA announced
$12 billion in funding for producers that have
been adversely affected by retaliatory tariffs.
China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union
implemented retaliatory tariffs that have had a
measurable impact on agricultural commodity
prices, such as soybeans, pork, corn, dairy,
sorghum, cotton, wheat, as well as nuts, vegetables,
fruits, and berries. On August 27, 2018, the
USDA provided details on three tariff-mitigating
programs: 1) Market Facilitation Program, 2)
Food Purchase and Distribution Program, and 3)
Agricultural Trade Promotion Program.
40 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Market Facilitation Program
The Market Facilitation Program (MFP) is
authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation
(CCC) Charter Act and will provide payments
incrementally to producers of soybeans, sorghum,
corn, wheat, cotton, dairy, and hogs. The support is
intended to help farmers manage disrupted markets
and deal with surplus commodities resulting from the
impacts of retaliatory tariffs (USDA, 2018). USDA
Farm Service Agency Service Centers will accept
applications from September 4, 2018, to January 15,
2019. Payments will first be issued on 50 percent of a
farmer’s production, and a second payment rate will
be announced in December 2018 that will apply to
the remaining 50 percent of the farmer’s production
(MFP, 2018). The MFP rates as announced by the
USDA for the initial payments are:
• Cotton $0.06 per pound
• Corn $0.01 per bushel
• Dairy $0.12 per cwt.
• Hogs $8.00 per head (number of head as of
August 1, 2018)
• Sorghum $0.86 per bushel
• Soybeans $1.65 per bushel
• Wheat $0.14 per bushel (MFP, 2018)
Initial projected MFP payments to Tennessee
producers are shown in Table 2.5. Payment rates
on the remaining 50 percent of production will
likely be different from those announced for the
first 50 percent.
Food Purchase and Distribution Program
The Food Purchase and Distribution Program
is authorized under the CCC Charter Act and
implemented through the Agricultural Marketing
Service (AMS) to purchase surplus supplies of 31
commodities and food products (USDA, 2018).
USDA AMS will purchase processed commodity
and food products to be delivered to schools,
food banks, and households across the country
as a component of the nation’s food safety
net. Total purchases are estimated to be $1.414
billion, nationally. The purchases of processed
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL

ECONOMY, CONTINUED

Table 2.5: Projected Payments for Crops from the Market Facilitation Program
Commodity Estimated Production* Total Estimated Payments** Estimated Average Per-Acre Payment***
Tennessee
Cotton 755,000 bales 10,872,000 $31.51
Corn 127.02 million bu 635,100 $0.87
Sorghum NA NA NA
Soybeans 84.280 million bu 69,531,000 $40.43
Wheat 18.585 million bu 1,300,950 $4.41
US
Cotton 19.235 million bales 276,984,000 $27.32
Corn 14.586 billion bu 72,932,425 $0.89
Sorghum 375.385 million bu 161,415,550 $30.50
Soybeans 4.586 billion bu 3,783,380,700 $42.58
Wheat 1.877 billion bu 131,374,950 $3.32
*Estimated based on August 10, 2018, USDA Crop Production report.
**Payments are subject to change based on changes in production, payment limitations, certified acres, and sign up.
***Average per-acre estimates will vary from farm to farm based on farm yields. Yields higher than the national or state average will result in greater payments; yields lower than
the national or state average will result in lower payments.
Source: Best, Smith and Muhammad, 2018.

commodities and food products from Tennessee
sources are currently unknown.
Agricultural Trade Promotion Program
In August 2018, it was announced that
$200 million will be added to the Agricultural
Trade Promotion Program (ATP) as part of the
relief package to assist farmers affected by trade
retaliation. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
administers the ATP under authority of the CCC.
In Tennessee, there is an infrastructure in place for
participation in the ATP program. The Tennessee
Department of Agriculture (TDA) has worked
with FAS on trade promotion of agricultural and
food products produced in Tennessee and has
participated in FAS sponsored trade missions as
part of a state-level trade promotion. Additionally,
the Southern United States Trade Association
(SUSTA), of which the state of Tennessee is a
member, helps small- and medium-sized companies
in the South promote food and agricultural products
to foreign markets (Best, Smith and Muhammad,
2018). Through the Market Access Program, FAS
has partnered with SUSTA and businesses to share
the costs of overseas marketing and promotional
activities that help build six commercial export
markets for U.S. agricultural products. Funding
for SUSTA is primarily provided by the Market
Access Program, which is also administered by FAS
and operates similar to the ATP (Best, Smith and
Muhammad, 2018).
Commodity Market Trends and Outlook
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Outlook
U.S. meat protein production will continue to
increase in 2019 from the beef, pork, and poultry
industries. Strong domestic demand for meat pro-
tein, especially beef, will support prices, but it will
be important to move more meat protein through
the export market to support prices. The com-
pletion of the United States, Mexico, and Canada
Agreement (USMCA) and the retooled US-Korea
Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) will continue to
support domestic animal and animal product pric-
es. Moving forward it will continue to be import-
ant to work on free trade agreements with Japan
and China. The export market will be integral to
growth or contraction in meat protein and dairy
product industries.
Prices are expected to be only slightly lower
across the meat and dairy complex in 2019 com-

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 41

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
pared to 2018. Lower prices will largely be due to
increased production, as in previous years. How-
ever, continued resolution of trade conflicts and
increases in exports could support market prices,
resulting in steady to slightly higher prices in 2019
compared to 2018. Tennessee producer profitabil-
ity hinges on efficiencies and value-added oppor-
tunities, as well as cost management. Specifically,
beef and pork production are expected to increase
in 2019, placing pressure on prices, but strong
demand will keep prices from deflating. Poultry
production will be steady to slightly higher with
little change in prices, while dairy production will
be fairly steady with slightly higher prices in 2019.
Row Crops Outlook
Looking towards 2019, prices and producer
profitability are unlikely to improve substantially
without resolution of the trade dispute with
China or a production disruption domestically or
abroad. For the 2018/19 marketing year, Tennessee
farm-gate prices are projected to be $5.00-$6.00
for wheat; $3.50-$4.50 for corn; $7.75-$9.25 for
soybeans; and $0.75-$0.85 for cotton. Key factors
for producer profitability in 2018/19 include trade,
adverse weather events, access to financing, interest
rates, exchange rates, regulations and policies, and
global economic growth. Given several years of low
to negative margins, it is likely that some producers
will exit the agricultural industry in the upcoming
year. Consolidation in the row crop industry and
associated agricultural service sectors remains likely
as high cost producers exit the industry.
U.S. and Tennessee Agricultural Trade Outlook
In 2017, total U.S. agricultural exports as
reported by the USDA were $138.2 billion, up
2.6 percent when compared to the previous year
($134.7 billion). According to year-to-date (January-
September) estimates, total U.S. agricultural exports
were $104.0 billion as of September 2018, up from
$98.9 billion in 2017. However, given the pending
trade tensions with China, 2018 fourth-quarter
exports may not exceed 2017. Total agricultural
exports for Tennessee were $1.3 billion in 2017,
42 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
slightly up from the previous year but significantly
down from its peak in 2011 ($2.2 billion). Major
categories in 2017 for Tennessee included cotton
($693 million), prepared foods and beverages ($229
million), tobacco ($42 million), and dairy products
($41 million). Although reported by USDA, these
values are compiled by U.S. Census and may not
include bulk commodity shipments (i.e., corn and
soybeans) that are consolidated with exports from
other states and usually attributed to port states such
as Louisiana (USDA/FAS, 2018c).
According to the Economic Research Service
(ERS), Tennessee agricultural exports were $1.49
billion in 2017, up from $1.37 billion the previous
year (see Table 2.6). Of the 50 states, Tennessee
ranked 28th in total agricultural exports in 2017. In
2017, major export categories for Tennessee included
soybeans ($400.6 million, 16th largest state); cotton
($196.0 million, 8th); other feed grains ($80.8 million,
21st); corn ($75.9 million, 19th); tobacco ($68.5
million, 4th); wheat ($66.2 million, 18th); beef and
veal ($61.1 million, 26th); and broiler meat ($51.5
million, 17th) (USDA/ERS, 2018c).
According to USDA, 2019 (fiscal year)
agricultural exports are projected to increase by $500
million when compared to 2018. This increase is
primarily due to higher exports of key agricultural
commodities and products important to Tennessee.
Wheat exports are forecast to go up by $1.4 billion to
$7.1 billion as a result of higher volumes and reduced
competition globally. Overall grains and feeds
exports are forecast at $33.1 billion, up $1.5 billion
when compared to the previous year. However, for
a number of important categories and products
in 2019, exports are projected to be unchanged or
lower when compared to 2018. Cotton exports are
projected to be unchanged at $6.9 billion, as lower
exports are offset by higher unit values or prices.
Exports of livestock, dairy, and poultry products are
expected to be down $300 million, driven by weaker
shipment values for beef, pork, and dairy. Oilseeds
and products are projected to be down $1.4 billion;
soybean exports are forecast to fall $800 million to
$21.0 billion as both volumes and unit values decline,
in large part due to weakening demand from China
(USDA/ERS, 2018b).
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL

ECONOMY, CONTINUED

Table 2.6: FAS, 2018c). Interestingly, in 2017 and 2018,

Tennessee Agricultural Exports, 2017 there were agricultural trade tensions or issues
between the U.S. and each of these countries/
Product Million $ US Rank regions either due to their response to U.S. steel
Beef & Veal 61.1 26 and aluminum tariffs or the U.S. pulling out
Pork 26.1 19 of pending trade agreements or renegotiating
Hides & Skins 13.9 28 existing agreements. Only recently have trade
Other Livestock Products1 20.0 40 tensions with Canada and Mexico begun to ease
Dairy Products 18.4 31 with the renegotiation of the North American
Broiler Meat 51.5 17 Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (see box on
Other Poultry Products 2
13.1 30
USMCA). However, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs
Vegetables, Fresh 3.2 32
on U.S. processed food products and Mexico’s
retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork, cheese, Tennessee
Vegetables, Processed 6.0 32
Whiskey and other products are still in place.
Fruits, Fresh 0.0 49
In 2017, the U.S. pulled out of the Trans-
Fruits, Processed 0.0 49
Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement with
Tree Nuts 0.0 43
11 other countries that included major trading
Rice 0.0 43 partners (Canada, Mexico, and Japan). Despite
Wheat 66.2 18 being a major trading partner, there is no
Corn 75.9 19 agreement governing trade between the U.S. and
Feed & Other Feed Grains 3
80.8 21 Japan. In 2018, Japan signed the Comprehensive
Grain Products, Processed 41.9 25 and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Soybeans 400.6 16 Partnership (CPTPP) (TPP minus the US) and
Soybean Meal 72.9 16 an agreement with the European Union (EU). If
Vegetable Oils 55.1 16 the U.S. is unable to negotiate its own agreement
Other Oilseeds & Products 4
0.0 46
with Japan, U.S. exports to Japan could be
disadvantaged compared to those countries with
Cotton 196.2 8
an existing trade agreement (e.g., Australia, New
Tobacco 68.5 4
Zealand, Canada, and EU).
Other Plant Products5 215.9 20
The U.S. – Korea Free Trade Agreement
Total Agricultural Exports 1,487.4 28
entered into force March 2012 and resulted in
Total Animal Products 204.1 34 immediate duty free status for almost two-thirds
Total Plant Products 1,283.3 26 of U.S. agricultural exports, and tariffs and import
1
Includes other non-poultry meats, animal fat, live farm animals, and other animal quotas on most other agricultural goods are to be
parts phased out by 2021. One of the most significant
2
Includes turkey meat, eggs, and other fowl products
3
Includes processed feeds, fodder, barley, oats, rye, and sorghum. market access gains for U.S. producers is South
4
Includes peanuts (oil stock), other oil crops, corn meal, other oilcake and meal, Korea’s phased elimination of its 40 percent
protein substances, bran, and residues.
5
Includes sweeteners and products, other horticultural products, planting seeds, tariff on U.S. beef by 2027. In January 2018, the
cocoa, and other processed foods.
Sources: USDA’s ERS and FAS
U.S. and South Korea began negotiations and
announced an agreement in principle in March
Trade Tensions with Trading Partners (Congressional Research Service, 2018). The U.S.
In 2017, the top destinations for U.S. ran a $6.3 billion agricultural trade surplus with
agricultural exports included Canada ($20.6 South Korea in 2017. The renegotiated agreement
billion), China ($19.5 billion), Mexico ($18.6 maintains the benefits for U.S. agriculture agreed
billion), Japan ($11.9 billion), EU-28 ($11.4 upon in 2012.
billion), and South Korea ($$6.9 billion) (USDA/ A foremost concern for U.S. agricultural

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 43

CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL

ECONOMY, CONTINUED

exports is the current trade war between the U.S.
and China. In 2018, the President directed the
U.S. Trade Representative to impose 10 percent
tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports,
with plans to increase the tariffs to 25 percent in
2019, as well additional tariffs on another $267
billion in Chinese goods. The primary fallout of
this policy has been China’s retaliatory tariffs on
U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, resulting
in a fall in U.S. soybean prices – significantly
lower when compared to South American prices.
According to USDA, agricultural exports to
China are forecast at $12.0 billion in 2019 (fiscal
year), down $7.0 billion from the 2018 estimate.
Chinese demand for soybeans is expected to be
sharply lower due to retaliatory tariffs, which
also curb demand for other products, including
sorghum, pork, and dairy products. However, the
impact on the trade war on U.S. cotton exports
is expected to be less significant as reported sales
are currently ahead of the same time a year ago
(USDA/ERS, 2018b).

The New United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

and Agricultural Exports

The North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), enacted on January 1, 1994, shaped the world’s
largest free trade area. This agreement increased trade between the United States, Mexico, and Canada
(USDA/FASa, n.d.). Twenty-four years later, a renegotiation between the three countries was announced.
The goal of the new agreement, termed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), is to
continue to strengthen the United States’ agricultural relationship with Mexico and Canada (USDA/FASb,
n.d.).
The first agreement of the renegotiation was established on August 27, 2018 between the United
States and Mexico. Over one month later, on September 30, 2018, the United States and Canada came
to an agreement that will keep a trade agreement between the three countries in place. USMCA is
expected to be ratified next year.
Food and agricultural products that have zero tariffs under NAFTA will continue to have zero tariffs
under USMCA. However, some agricultural sectors will change as a result of high hopes to reduce trade
barriers. The dairy and animal protein sectors will be affected by this.
Most notably for the United States is increased access to Canadian dairy markets and animal protein
sectors. In Canada, the Class 7 milk price system will be disassembled. This price system artificially
lowered milk ingredient prices and increased incentives of domestic dairy substitution in Canada over
imported ingredients (Bechtel, 2018). Eliminating Class 7 will once again allow United States milk
products to be competitive in Canadian markets. In the animal protein sector, the United States poultry,
egg, and turkey industries will gain increased market access in Canada.
The auto industry will see the largest change from USMCA; other industries will see only a marginal
change. However, as a result of the United States’ steel and aluminum tariff, agricultural gains will be
overshadowed by retaliatory tariffs imposed by both Mexico and Canada. Once an agreement on steel
and aluminum trade is reached, United States agriculture will see the intended benefits of USMCA.

44 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
Infrastructure
Tennessee’s on-farm infrastructure, an indicator
for grain storage capacity, has increased to 95.0
million bushels in 2017 from 75.0 million bushels
in 2011 (USDA/NASS, 2018a). In addition, off-
farm facilities provided 143 million bushels of
storage capacity for crops in 2017. Tennessee’s
total storage capacity in 2017 was still short by 60
million bushels for its crop production and stocks,
making Tennessee’s rank as tenth in terms of storage
shortage. Transportation networks play an important
role in connecting farm products and markets in the
nation and Tennessee. Road transportation remains
the dominant mode for freight movement, including
agricultural commodities, accounting for about 79
percent of domestic grain and oilseed shipment
in 2014 (Gastelle et al., 2017). In contrast, barge
transportation is the key mode for export-bound
products, contributing to nearly 50 percent of total
exported crops in 2014. Tennessee Governor Haslam
signed the “Improving Manufacturing, Public
Roads and Opportunities for a Vibrant Economy”
(IMPROVE) Act in April 2017 that aims to deliver
962 road and bridge projects across the state through
a user-based approach. Tennessee uses pay-as-you-
go strategies exclusively, instead of debt, to fund its
highway system. It is estimated that Tennessee needs
around $475 million annually to maintain the current
condition of the roadways. The inland waterways
in Tennessee also need additional funds to improve
navigational efficiency. Federal policies that expand
funding for transportation improvements and
expansion could help ameliorate these shortfalls.
Farmers Markets, CSA’s,
Wineries, and the Green Industry
As reported last year, the “local foods”
movement, along with technical and financial
assistance provided by the USDA, TDA, the
University of Tennessee Institute for Agriculture
(UTIA), and other agencies, has helped increase
direct marketing by farmers. An important
component of direct marketing is sales through
farmers markets. Tennessee has undergone a rapid
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
expansion in the number of farmers markets,
increasing from 99 in 2013 to 131 in 2018 (USDA/
AMS, 2018a). Direct markets and local food, in
general, are strong and growing in Tennessee.
However, there remains a good deal of room for
further growth.
Based on a 2015 survey conducted by USDA/
NASS (2017), 4,148 farms in Tennessee reported
local sales valued at $58.7 million. Among these
farms, 90.4 percent (3,748) reported direct sales to
consumers, totaling $41.4 million in value or sales
of $11,050 per farm. Survey results also imply that
direct sales are growing. Among the 3,748 producers,
39.2 percent have been direct marketing for less
than five years, while 33.1 percent have been selling
directly to consumers for six to ten years. Further,
the 3,748 is an increase over the 3,679 farmers in
2012 and 3,581 farmers in 2007 with direct sales to
consumers. The $41.4 million is more than twice
the value of direct sales ($19.2 million) reported by
Tennessee farmers for 2012 (USDA/NASS, 2012).
Among the 4,148 responding farms, 3,748
farms provide value-added products (i.e., they
physically transformed the product) with $29.6
million in value-added sales (or 50.4 percent of all
directly marketed sales in value terms). The 400
farmers who sell locally to institutional (such as
school systems) or retail (such as grocery stores)
buyers or through other intermediaries (such as food
hubs) are generally larger operations with local food
sales of $43,265 per farm.
Our analysis of Tennessee farmers markets
shows 131 farmers markets in 62 counties with
over half (64) concentrated in 10 counties (USDA/
AMS, 2018a). On a per-capita basis, Tennessee has
27.5 percent fewer farmers markets than the U.S. as
a whole or Tennessee is short 48 farmers markets
(that is, if Tennessee was at the national level, it
would have 179 farmers markets). Even adjusted
for the state’s lower per capita income, Tennessee is
still short 25 farmers markets. Tennessee per capita
direct sales are $6.23 or 33.5 percent less than the
national average of $9.37 per person. These gaps
would be larger (but how much larger is unclear) if
we adjusted for the relatively large number of tourists
who visit Tennessee.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 45
CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
Our analysis of Tennessee farmers markets,
based on the data provided by the USDA’s AMS,
indicates that 63.4 percent (83) accept credit cards
and 32.8 percent (43) accept SNAP payments.
Well over half report baked goods (85), eggs (80),
and meat (69) vendors. Among the 131 farmers
markets, 38 markets (29 percent) report organic
product vendors.
Community supported agriculture (CSA) and
food hubs are other expanding components of local
foods markets, both nationally and in Tennessee. In
a CSA, consumers (buying members) make advanced
payment for a farm’s products and in return receive
a share of the production on a consistent basis
throughout the growing season (Demuth, 1993).
Farmers are assured of a return for their efforts
before production, and consumers are assured of
an adequate and timely supply of locally produced
products. Our analysis of data provided by TDA
indicates that 101 CSAs--but only two food hubs-
-currently operate in the state. Among the CSAs,
22 percent (22) were found in East Tennessee, 67
percent (68) in Middle Tennessee, and 11 percent
(11) in West Tennessee.
Cattle and other livestock producers are also
becoming interested in finishing and processing
cattle for local and regional markets. Based on
survey results (McLeod, 2017), over three-fourths
of Tennessee cattle producers expressed interest
in supplying an in-state federally inspected cattle
processing facility. Interest in a Tennessee meat
brand is also growing. Some of these producers are
growing purely grass-fed or pasture-raised animals.
Linking to local and regional markets and access
to federally inspected processing facilities remain
a challenge for livestock producers interested in
meeting the growing demand for locally sourced
meat. Research indicates that a small, well-managed,
federally inspected processing facility could be
profitable (Hughes et al., 2017).
Similar to prior years, other new or
nontraditional agricultural ventures also continue
to grow in Tennessee. As reported last year and
according to the 2012 Agriculture Census, the state
has 616 agritourism venues, up from 510 in 2007.
Analysis of the most recent data (2018) released
46 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, 2018)
indicates that the Tennessee wine and grape industry
continues to show strong growth. Direct-hired jobs
in the Tennessee winery industry has grown to 457
workers in the first quarter of 2018, an increase
of 4.6 percent from the same time last year. The
state now has 83 bonded wineries, including several
cideries (where hard cider is produced), an increase
of 15 from 2016. The craft beer industry and the
craft distillery industry in Tennessee are also growing
rapidly. An estimated 137 breweries are now in
Tennessee, which is an increase of over fivefold
from the 26 in 2010. As of the first-quarter of 2018,
63 breweries report an average of 600 workers
with a first quarter payroll of $3.7 million versus
26 breweries reporting 148 workers in 2014. The
brewing industry is concentrated in urban centers,
with 89 percent of reported employment in six urban
counties. Several farmers are starting to produce
hops and other inputs for that industry (McDaniels,
2017). Likewise, the number of distilleries reporting
employment has increased from 19 in 2014 to 35 in
the first quarter of 2018. Farmers are also increasing
production of corn and other grains as inputs for the
Tennessee whiskey industry (Tharel, 2017).
As reported last year, the green industry
(ornamental horticulture including nursery
and turfgrass producers) remains an important
component of Tennessee agriculture, especially in
Middle Tennessee. As of 2014, the industry was
still recovering from the economic downturn in
2008, with nursery sales valued at $128.7 million,
down by 27.4 percent from sales of $177.2 million
in 2007 (USDA/NASS, 2018e), and a decline in the
number of establishments from 793 to 547 (a 31.0
percent drop). However, anecdotal information
obtained from county agents indicates that green
industry producers had a very good year in 2018.
Also, a number of farmers have expressed interest in
growing hemp. In 2018, Tennessee had 226 licensed
producers growing the crop, which is an increase
from 79 growers in 2017 (Matheny, 2018). The hemp
is primarily grown for the cannabidiol oil that is
obtained by crushing the seed. In-state processing
for locally grown hemp may become an area of need
in the near future.
 The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2

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ECONOMY, CONTINUED

Table 2.7: Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Value of Production (mill $) $4,485 $5,101 $4,885 $4,567 $3,986 $4,242
Net Farm Income (mill $) $866 $1,414 $688 $711 $183 $649
Interest Expense (mill $) $200 $179 $189 $196 $208 $226
Market Value of Farmland, Buildings, $38,368 $38,913 $39,240 $39,785 $40,330 $40,875
and Equipment (mill $)
Capital Consumption (mill $) $603 $660 $867 $742 $791 $681
Total Expenses (mill $) $3,672 $3,743 $4,204 $3,825 $6,825 $3,673
Net Farm Income Ratio 0.19 0.28 0.14 0.16 0.05 0.15
Capital Consumption Ratio 0.13 0.13 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.16
Operating Expense Ratio 0.64 0.57 0.64 0.63 1.46 0.65
Interest Expense Ratio 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Times Interest Earned 5.33 8.90 4.64 4.63 1.88 3.87

Source: (USDA/ERS 2018a).

Financial Indicators for
Tennessee Farming Industries
Several measures can be used to indicate the
financial well-being of farms and farm operators in
Tennessee. Table 2.7 presents financial data from
2012-2017 for the Tennessee farming sector. The
value of farm production declined from just under
$4.5 billion in 2012 to $4.2 billion in 2017 (USDA/
ERS 2018a). Net cash farm income was just over
$649 million in 2017 (down from $866 million
in 2012, but up from the low of $183 million in
2016), averaging $9,848 per operation. Net cash
farm income on a per-acre basis was $26/acre. The
net farm income ratio (net farm income/value of
production) during 2012 to 2017 ranged from 5 to
28 percent efficiency in converting production to net
farm income, with an uptick from 5 percent in 2016
to 15 percent in 2017. 4 The interest expense ratios
for the farming sector, holding at 5 percent or less,
reflect a low debt burden and interest payment level
relative to production.
Times interest earned is another measure of
ability to cover debt payments, specifically interest
payments. For all years, the values are greater
than one, implying sufficient cash to meet interest
4
USDA’s Economic Research definitions of farm sector financial ratios were used. A description of these can be found at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-
income-and-wealth-statistics/documentation-for-the-farm-sector-financial-ratios/.
payments, and in 2017, the value was 3.87. The
state’s capital consumption ratio, or the percent
of production needed to cover the sector’s capital
consumption, was relatively low for the 2012 to 2017
period, ranging between 13 percent and 20 percent.
In 2017, the state’s farming sector had an operating
expense ratio of 0.65, suggesting 65 percent of the
value of production was used to cover operating
expenses. The 2017 estimated market value of land
and buildings on farms was $40.9 billion or around
$650,258 per farm in Tennessee.
Tennessee’s farm structure is characterized by
many small farming operations; however, a relatively
few larger farms make up the majority of farm
sales (USDA/NASS 2018e). According to the 2012
Census of Agriculture, just under 42 percent of
farmers in Tennessee cite farming as their principal
occupation. This illustrates the importance of other
sources of rural income to economic sustainability
of the agricultural sector. The average age of farm
operators in Tennessee is 57 years old. Over 30
percent of farmers are 65 and older. Less than eight
percent of principal operators are beginning farmers
having less than five years of farming experience.
Over 77 percent of principal operators had 10 years
or more of farming experience.

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Table 2.8: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2016a

Manufacturing Industry (NAICS) Employees Payroll Establishments Shipments
(number) (mill $) (number) (mill $)
Food (311) 36,062 $1,718 344 $20,642
Animal Slaughtering/Processing (3116) 10,519 $382 66 $3,872
Beverage & Tobacco Products (312) 3,481 $226 135 $6,244
Textile Mills (313) 2,400 $115 45 $905
Textile Product Mills (314) 1,627 $65 131 $414
Apparel (315) 2,492 $75 86 $281
Leather & Allied Products (316) 475 $13 29 $45
Wood Products (321) 11,055 $427 465 $2,785
Paper (322) 10,319 $629 122 $5,866
Furniture & Related Products (337) 10,803 $441 311 $2,049
Total 78,714 $3,709 1,668 $39,231
a
Values for animal slaughtering and processing are imbedded in food manufacturing (311) values
Source:US Census Bureau, 2018

Primary Forestry in Tennessee
In 2016, the state’s 144 sawmill establishments
employed 2,157 workers with a total payroll of $72.7
million, while the state’s 140 logging establishments
employed 845 workers with a total payroll of
$25.6 million (US Census Bureau 2018). From
2010 through 2016, average annual growth rates in
employees, payroll, and establishments for sawmills
(NAICS 321113) were 2.2 percent, 7.2 percent,
and -2.8 percent, respectively. For logging (NAICS
1133), the average annual growth rates over the
same period were 3.6 percent, 7.6 percent, and -0.2
percent, respectively, for employees, payroll, and
establishments. The dominant forest type in the state
is oak-hickory, accounting for an estimated 9.9 million
acres (Tennessee Forestry Association, 2017). Of the
close to 14.0 million acres in forest, 83.3 percent is
privately owned with federal and state/local forests
comprising 10.1 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
For 20145, average annual sawtimber6 removals on
timberland7 were estimated at 1.4 billion board feet.
Of that value, the majority of the removals, 88.1
percent, were from private landowners (1.2 billion
board feet), followed by state (20.8 million board
feet) and other federal entities (15.3 million board
feet). The predominant species removed on other
federal lands were red and white oaks, and for state
lands: yellow poplar, white oaks, and hickory. For
privately owned lands, white and red oaks, yellow
poplar, loblolly/shortleaf pines, and hickory were the
predominant species removed (USDA/FS, 2014).
Food, Fiber, and Forestry
Manufacturing in Tennessee
Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and
Employees
The state’s 1,668 food and fiber processing
and manufacturing facilities employed 78,714
workers, with a payroll of $3.7 billion in 2016
(Table 2.8). The value of shipments originating
from these industries was $39.2 billion (US Census
Bureau, 2018). By comparison, the state’s overall

5
Area change, growth, removals, and mortality from 2005-2011 to 2010-2014.
6
Commercial tree species with at least a 12-foot sawlog or two noncontiguous sawlogs 8 feet or longer and meeting regional specifications for freedom from defect.
Softwoods must be at least 9.0 inches in diameter at breast height (d.b.h.); hardwoods must be at least 11.0 inches d.b.h. (USDA/FS, 2014).
7
Forest land producing or is capable of producing crops of industrial wood and not withdrawn from timber utilization by statute or administrative regulation (USDA/FS,
2014).

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2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
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Figure 2.19: Value of Shipments from Tennessee Agri-Forestry, 2010-2016
Food, Beverage, & Tobacco Products
$27.0
$26.0
Billions ($)
$25.0
$24.0
$23.0
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S Census Bureau, Censtats Databases
manufacturing employment was 308,966 workers in
2016, and the value of shipments was $149.1 billion.
Thus, food- and fiber-related manufacturing in
Tennessee employed more than 1 in 4 manufacturing
workers and generated nearly $1 out of every $4
in manufacturing shipments. Food processing
accounted for 52.6 percent of the values of food-
and fiber-related manufacturing shipments, followed
by beverage and tobacco products at 15.9 percent
and paper products at 15.0 percent.
Figure 2.19 displays the growth in value
of shipments from 2010 through 2016 for
Tennessee’s food, beverage, and tobacco products
manufacturing (NAICS 311 and 312 combined)
and wood, paper, and furniture products (NAICS
321, 322, and 337 combined). Other than a 3.9
percent decline in shipments in 2014, food,
beverage and tobacco products manufacturing
experienced 4.2 percent average annual growth
from 2010 to 2016. During this same time frame,
forest products manufacturing also experienced an
average annual growth rate of 4.2 percent.
The location quotients (LQ) displayed in Figure
2.19 reflect the concentration of Tennessee’s agri-
forestry manufacturing compared with the US,
8
LQs measure a region’s industrial specialization relative to a larger geographic unit (usually the nation). An LQ is computed as an industry’s share of a regional total
for some economic statistic (in this case, value of shipments) divided by the industry’s share of the national total for the same statistic.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
Wood, Paper, & Furniture
$11.00
$10.25
Billions ($)
$9.50
$8.75
$8.00
2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
based upon 2016 value of shipments and labor.8
An LQ greater than one indicates Tennessee’s
manufacturing is more concentrated toward that
particular manufacturing industry than the US. For
value of shipments, the state’s manufacturing is
more concentrated toward beverages and tobacco
(1.45), paper (1.16), and textile mills (1.16) compared
to the US. However, for food manufacturing only
the LQ is less than one (0.97). For labor, paper,
apparel, furniture industries, and wood products have
LQs greater than one, suggesting that Tennessee’s
manufacturing industries’ labor is more concentrated
toward these industries than the US. From 2007 to
2014, textile product mills and textile mills declined
62.4 percent and 38.3 percent, respectively. For this
same time frame, beverage and tobacco products
increased 44.8 percent, followed by food processing
(25.8 percent), paper (15.6 percent), wood products
(2.5 percent), and furniture industries (1.9 percent).
Economic Impacts from
the Agri-forestry Industrial Complex
In 2015, the agri-forestry industrial complex
directly contributed (without multiplier effects) $52.5
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billion in economic activity to the state’s economy,
adding 173.6 thousand jobs. The agri-forestry
industrial complex contributed $14.0 billion in
value-added. When accounting for multiplier effects,
the agri-forestry industrial complex added $81.8
billion to Tennessee’s economy or 12.8 percent of
the state’s economic activity, accounting for 351.2
thousand jobs or 9.2 percent of all jobs. Agriculture,
with multiplier effects, accounted for 9.0 percent of
the state’s economy and generated $57.6 billion in
output, adding close to 250,000 jobs, with 96,000
employed (both full- and part-time) directly in
agricultural production (Menard, English and Jensen,
2017).
The 2015 economic activity multipliers for
agricultural commodities and forestry activities
(i.e., logging, sawmills, and pulp-, paper-, and
paperboard-mills) ranged from 1.09 to 1.85 for
economic activity. Commercial logging’s output
multiplier of 1.79 indicates that for every dollar
invested in the logging industry, an additional $0.79
of economic activity is generated. Employment
multipliers for agriculture and forestry ranged from
1.03 to 4.81. Logging’s employment multiplier
of 1.64 indicates that for every job created in
the commercial logging industry, an estimated
0.64 additional jobs are added in other industries
(Menard, English and Jensen, 2017).
Rural Economies and Well-Being
Rural communities and their resources are
important contributors to the health of the
agri-forestry industrial complex. In 2017, about
23.2 percent of Tennessee’s population lived in
counties classified as rural.9 As classified here,
rural counties had 2017 populations of 14,897 on
average, while counties not classified as rural had
average populations of 87,510 (Table 8). While rural
counties experienced a slight population decline,

9
This study defines rural using the ERS/USDA Rural/Urban Continuum categories of a) non-metro-urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area;
b) non-metro-completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area; and c) non-metro-completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population,
not adjacent to a metro area (USDA/ERS, 2016).

Figure 2.20: Tennessee Agri-forestry Manufacturing Location Quotients (LQ), 2016

Value of Shipments Labor

1.45
Beverage & Tobacco Products (312)
0.75

1.16
Paper (322)
1.11

1.16
Textile Mills (313)
0.89

0.98
Furniture & Related Products (337)
1.10

0.98
Wood Products (321) 1.05

0.97
Food (311) 0.92

0.96
Apparel (315) 1.10

0.60
Textile Product Mills (314)
0.53

0.33
Leather & Allied Products (316)
0.71

Source: U.S Census Bureau, Censtats Databases.

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counties not classified as rural averaged 1.46 percent Table 2.9: Population,
growth from 2010-2017. The data in Table 8 show Household Income, Education Level,
that rural counties had lower median household Unemployment, Poverty, and Food Insecurity
incomes, lower percentages of people aged 25 and Across Rural County Status, Tennessee
over with 4-year college degrees or greater, and
higher unemployment and poverty rates. Measure Rural Not Rural

Several poverty indicators were used to 2017 Population Per County 14,897 87,510
calculate a score: these included low education, high 2010-2017 Population Change -0.14% 1.46%
unemployment, persistent related child poverty, 2012-2016 Median Household Income (2016$) $35,906 $43,048
greater than 15 percent food insecurity, and less than 2012-2016 Education Level, Persons 25 and Over (5-Yr Avg)
average median household income for Tennessee’s - Have Not Completed a High School Degree 22.08% 18.67%
counties.10 A county is scored as a 5 if it exhibited - High School Degree or Higher 77.92% 81.33%
all five indicators or 0 if they exhibited none. At the - Completed 4-Yr College or Higher 12.24% 17.44%
bottom of the table, it can be seen that, on average, 2012-2016 Unemployment Rates (Percent) 9.39% 8.17%
rural counties scored 2.77, while non-rural counties
2012-2016 Poverty Rates 31.04% 25.77%
scored 1.53.
2013 Persistent Child Poverty 27.27% 20.55%

Governor’s Rural Challenge 2016 Food Insecurity Rates 14.95% 13.90%

Four recommendations were made as part
of The Governor’s Rural Challenge for Tennessee
agriculture (TDA, 2013). These recommendations
were:
1. Advance agriculture, natural resources, and
rural infrastructure as Tennessee business
priorities;
2. Ensure a positive and predictable policy and
regulatory environment;
3. Expand market opportunities for Tennessee
producers and encourage new production;
and
4. Increase the scope and depth of a skilled and
educated workforce through career, technical,
and higher education.
Several indicators of progress toward meeting
these recommendations are listed in Table 2.10.
For Recommendation 1, indicators exhibiting positive
movement included reduction in the percentage
of cropland that is idled (comparing 2012 to 2007
Census of Agriculture), a nearly 22 percent growth
rate in an index of major crop yields from 2013 to
2017 and nearly 19 percent increase in grain storage
Poverty Indicator Score 2.77 1.53
Sources: (USDA/ERS, 2015a; USDA/ERS, 2015b; USDA/ERS, 2016, Feeding
America, 2016.
capacity. Compared with 2013, investment in the
TAEP to assist with technological and infrastructural
improvements in the state’s agriculture is 15.13
percent higher and 20.58 percent higher when
adjusted for inflation (see Recommendation 2).
Positive indicators toward Recommendation
3 include growth in economic activity from the
food and beverage processing industries, growing
by 4.97 percent in real terms. The share of
agricultural commodities exported out of state
declined by 3.42 percent between 2015 and 2013;
however, the percentage of imported inputs used
in food and beverage processing increased by 3.56
percent. Under Recommendation 4, two indicators
reflect positive progress toward building a skilled
and educated agricultural workforce. The Master
Producer programs have certified, in total, 22,578
producers since 1993. Four-year agricultural degrees
awarded increased from 670 per year in 2013/2014
to 819 in 2015/2016, a 22.24 percent increase.

10
Low Education County: At least 20 percent or more of the residents age 25 to 64 did not have a high school diploma or equivalent during 2012-16. High-
unemployment county: Greater than 10 percent of residents age 25-64 were unemployed in 2012-16. Persistent related child poverty county: 20 percent or more of
related children under 18 years old were poor as measured by the 1980, 1990, and 2000 decennial censuses and the American Community Survey 5-year estimates
for 2007-11 (USDA/ERS, 2016).

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ECONOMY, CONTINUED

Table 2.10: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2016a

Comparison Base Percent Strategic Plan
Indicator Goal
Year Year Change Recommendation
2012 2007
Percent of Cropland that is Idled (%) 6.06% 6.88% -0.82% Decrease 1
2017 2013
Index of Crop Yield Per Acre (6 major crops)a 105.55 100.00 5.55% Increase 1
2017 2013
Storage Capacity (mill bu) 95.00 80.00 18.75% Increase 1
Tennessee Ag Enhancement Program Expenditures
(TAEP) (mill $) $13.70 $11.90 15.13% Increase 2
Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI (1982-1984=100)b $14.35 $11.90 20.58% Increase
2015 2013
Economic Activity from
Farming and Associated Activities (Million $) $4,423 $4,694 -5.77% Increase 3
- Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI (1982-1984=100) b
$4,490 $4,694 -4.35% Increase
Economic Activity from Food
and Beverage Processing (Million $) $26,011 $24,411 6.55% Increase 3
- Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI (1982-1984=100) b
$26,404 $24,411 8.16% Increase
2015 2013
Percent of Agricultural Commodity Exports to Out-of-State (%) 50.00% 53.42% -3.42% Decrease 3
Percent of Food and Beverage Processing Inputs
Imported from Out of State (%) 77.05% 73.49% +3.56% Decrease 3
2013 2018
Graduates of Master Producer Programs
(Cumulative total since 1993) 18,067 22,649 25.36% Increase 4
2015-2016 2013-2014
Four-Year Agricultural Degrees Awarded (No./Yr.) c
819 670 22.24% Increase 4

a
Corn, Cotton, Hay, Soybeans, Tobacco, and Wheat (USDA/NASS 2018e). Yield ratios of 2015 to 2011 for each crop were share weighted by 2015 acres harvested of each crop.
b
The Southern Region CPI values for second year value (Year2 $Value) were adjusted to the dollars of 2013 by the following formula: Adjusted Year2 $Value=Year2 $Value/CPI
Ratio. CPI Ratio=CPI (1982-84=100) Year2/CPI (1982-84=100) Year1. The CPI values for 2015 and 2013 were 230.15 and 226.72, respectively, for the Southeast Region using
1982-1984 as the base value. The values for the CPI were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2017).
c
Source: Tennessee Department of Higher Education, 2018.

Summary In 2017, the commodities drawing the

When accounting for multiplier effects, the agri-
forestry industrial complex added $81.8 billion to
Tennessee’s economy, or 12.8 percent of the state’s
economic activity, and accounted for 351.2 thousand
jobs, or 9.2 percent of all jobs. Agriculture, with
multiplier effects, accounted for 9.0 percent of
the state’s economy and generated $57.6 billion in
output, adding close to 250,000 jobs, with 96,000
employed directly in agricultural production.
highest cash receipts were soybeans, followed
by cattle and calves, broilers, then corn and
cotton. The farming sector is diverse, but this
means that the state’s agricultural sector, in
many cases, is heavily influenced by national
and/or international market conditions. In
2017, major export categories for Tennessee
included soybeans ($400.6 million, 16th largest
state), cotton ($196.0 million, 8th), other feed
grains ($80.8 million, 21st), corn ($75.9 million,

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2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
19th), tobacco ($68.5 million, 4th), wheat
($66.2 million, 18th), beef and veal ($61.1
million, 26th), and broiler meat ($51.5 million,
17th). Tariffs on agricultural commodities
have reduced prices and lowered farm income
for 2018. Government payments through the
Market Facilitation Program will help stabilize
producer incomes for 2018/19. Continuation of
the trade dispute with China has the potential to
dramatically impact 2019 plantings and long-
term profitability in the agricultural sector.
A great deal of uncertainty in agricultural
commodity exports is likely to persist into
2019. The long-term ramifications (positive or
negative) for agricultural trade due to the current
trade disputes remain uncertain.
Food and beverage manufacturing value
of shipments rose again in 2016, as did the
value of shipments from the forest products
sector. For value of shipments, the state’s
manufacturing is more concentrated toward
beverages and tobacco (1.45), paper (1.16), and
textile mills (1.16) compared to the national
average. However, for food manufacturing,
the LQ is less than one (0.97). Labor, paper,
apparel, furniture industries, and wood products
have LQs greater than one, suggesting that
Tennessee’s manufacturing industries’ labor
is more concentrated toward these industries
than the national average. The “local foods”
movement has helped increase direct marketing
by Tennessee farmers. Among the 4,148 farmers
who responded to a 2015 survey as having direct
marketing, 3,748 farms provided value-added
products (i.e., they physically transformed the
product) with $29.6 million in value-added sales
(or 50.4 percent of all directly marketed sales in
value terms).
Rural counties and their communities
provide important resources, including land,
labor, and infrastructure that help support
the state’s agri-forestry industrial complex.
However, rural/urban gaps exist, with lower
incomes and educational attainment and higher
unemployment, poverty, and food insecurity
rates occurring in rural counties.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
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US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). 2018.
“Export Statistics.” Available at https://www.
usmef.org/ news-statistics/statistics/.
USDA Assists Farmers Impacted by Unjustified
Retaliation. Washington, DC: U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Release No. 0151.18, 2018.
USDA/AMS. 2018a. Local Food Directories:
National Farmers Market Directory. Available
at https://www.ams.usda.gov/local-food-
directories/farmersmarkets.
USDA/AMS. 2018b. "MISC. POULTRY: Weekly
Poultry Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection."
Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/
mnreports/nw_py017.txt.
USDA/AMS. 2018c. “Uniform Milk Price.”
Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/
resources/marketing-order-statistics/uniform-
price.
USDA/ERS. 2015a. "County-Level Data Sets."
Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-
products/county-level-data-sets/.
USDA/ERS. 2015b. "County Typology Codes."
Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-
products/county-typology-codes/.
USDA/ERS. 2016. "Rural-Urban Continuum
Codes." Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/
data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.
aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2018a. "Farm Income and Wealth
Statistics." Available at http://www.ers.usda.
gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-
statistics.
USDA/ERS. 2018b. “Outlook for US Agricultural
Trade.” Available at https://www.ers.usda.
gov/ topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-
agricultural-trade/outlook-for-us-agricultural-
trade/.
USDA/ERS. 2018c. “State Export Data”. Available
at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/
state-export-data/.

2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL
ECONOMY, CONTINUED
USDA/FASa. (n.d.) “NAFTA.” Retrieved from
USDA-FAS: https://www.fas.usda.gov/
topics/nafta.
USDA/FASb. (n.d.) “USMCA.” Retrieved from
USDA-FAS: https://www.fas.usda.gov/
topics/us-mexico-canada-agreement-us.
USDA/FAS. 2018c. “Global Agricultural Trade
System.” Available at https://apps.fas.usda.
gov/Gats/ default.aspx.
USDA/FSA. 2018. “2016 and 2017 ARC/PLC
Payments.” https://www.fsa.usda.gov/
programs-and-services/arcplc_program/index.
USDA/FS. 2014. “Forest Inventory Data Online
(FIDO).” Available at http://apps.fs.fed.us/
fido/.
USDA/NASS. 2012. "Census of Agriculture,
Tennessee." Available at http://www.agcensus.
usda.gov/Publications/2012/.
USDA/NASS. 2017. 2015 Local Food Marketing
Practices Survey. Available at https://
quickstats. nass.usda.gov/results/D04B2F30-
D9D0-3A0F-B92A-1DE7C0987BE6.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook | CHAPTER 2
USDA/NASS. 2018a. “Grain Stocks.” Available at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/nass/
GraiStoc/2010s/2018/GraiStoc-01-12-2018.
pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2018b. “January 1 Cattle Inventory.”
Available at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/
usda/nass/Catt//2010s/2018/Catt-01-31-
2018.pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2018c. “January 1 Sheep and
Goat Inventory.” Available at http://usda.
mannlib.cornell. edu/usda/current/SheeGoat/
SheeGoat-01-31-2018.pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2018d. "Milk Production."
Available at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.
edu/ MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.
do?documentID=1103.
USDA/NASS. 2018e. "Quick Stats." https://
quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.
USDA/RMA. 2018. “Summary of Business
Report: National Summary by State.” https://
www.rma.usda.gov/SummaryOfBusiness
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 55
CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook

56 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
IN THIS CHAPTER —
3.1. INTRODUCTION
3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
3.3. UNEMPLOYMENT
3.4. POPULATION & LABOR FORCE
3.1. INTRODUCTION
This chapter takes a long view of economic
growth and development in Tennessee. It first
reviews the state’s economic performance dating
back to 2008 when the economy was in the grips
of the Great Recession, and looks forward to the
economic outlook extending out to 2028. The
focus then shifts to an extended discussion of
millennials and the many ways they are reshaping
markets and thus Tennessee’s economic future.
Unlike Chapters 1 and 2, which explored the
cyclical performance of the national and state
economies, the perspective offered here focuses
on long-term trend growth for the state economy.
Business cycles account for the up and down
performance of the economy due to contraction
and expansion. Today, the national and state
economies are in the midst of one of the longest
expansions in the historical record. Ultimately
this expansion will end, a recession will ensue, and
then the economy will grow again. At this date
there are no signs that a recession is imminent.
Trend growth focuses on long-term economic
outcomes. Both historically and prospectively,
long windows of time will include cycles of
contraction and expansion. However, the long-
The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3
3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS & OUTPUT
3.6. FORECAST AT A GLANCE
3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS
term trend perspective emphasizes the underlying
factors that influence long-term growth, especially
population, the labor force, private capital
investment and public infrastructure investment.
Embedded in these long-term ingredients to
growth is the quality of the labor force and
productivity, which together shape how effective
inputs are in realizing growth and development for
the state and its residents.
The state economy has seen impressive
growth in the last 10 years. The Great Recession
began in December 2007 and ended in the
summer of 2009 when the economy bottomed
out. Despite early struggles, growth has generally
been quite strong since then. Most measures of
economic activity, including employment and
the unemployment rate, have been fully restored
to pre-recession levels and have engineered
additional gains. The housing market has not
fully recovered, a reminder that the last recession
was induced by financial market problems tied
to housing. Earnings growth for the average
Tennessean has been meager, though some
improvement is expected as labor markets tighten
further.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 57
CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
Between 2008 and 2018, nonfarm employment
in Tennessee grew at a 1.0 percent compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) compared to 0.8 percent
growth for the national economy. Despite several
years of sustained growth, the state and national
manufacturing sectors each shed jobs over this
window of time due to the magnitude of recession-
induced setbacks and weak job performance on
the immediate heels of the recession. Looking
forward, nonfarm jobs should be up at a 0.7 percent
CAGR in Tennessee between 2018 and 2028, a
slight premium over the 0.6 percent rate of growth
expected for the nation. Unemployment rates for
the state and the nation will edge down through the
ongoing expansion, and then inch upward as the
economy returns to its trend performance in the
early 2020s. Tennessee’s inflation-adjusted gross
domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 1.8 percent
CAGR between 2008 and 2018, with similar growth
3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
Nonfarm and manufacturing employment in
Tennessee have seen uninterrupted growth dating
back to 2011. The early years following the
Great Recession were characterized by ongoing
job losses. The annual rate of nonfarm job
growth peaked in 2015 and 2016 with gains of
2.5 percent. The state’s manufacturing sector saw
its peak growth in 2016 with a robust gain of 3.3
percent. In 2017, nonfarm job growth slipped
to 1.5 percent and a 1.7 percent gain is expected
this year. Job growth will ebb in the years ahead
as the current economic expansion continues to
mature. Labor market constraints are the culprit.
The long-term job outlook for Tennessee
and the U.S. is shown in Figure 3.1, along
with historical data going back to 2008. The
near-term slowdown in job growth is clear in
the figure as the economy moves to its trend
path of growth in the early 2020s. Overall
nonfarm employment in Tennessee is projected
to advance at a 0.7 percent CAGR compared to
0.6 percent growth for the national economy by
58 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
expected between 2018 and 2028. The U.S. will see
largely similar growth between 2018 and 2028.
The second major component of this chapter
examines the role of the millennial generation in
influencing the economy—millennials and markets.
Millennials are a large segment of the population that
will have a significant impact on future economic
outcomes through a variety of behaviors ranging
from education choices to residential location
decisions. Many impacts are already being seen.
Millennials currently display high levels of debt
(often related to schooling) and different housing
tastes. They have greater concerns over the
environment than previous generations and are more
inclined to walk and bike, or take mass transit to
work. They prefer urban lifestyles. They like cheese,
but not American cheese. Together, the behaviors
exhibited by millennials—both large and small—will
shape the economy of the future.
2028. Tennessee’s manufacturing sector should
see a small gain between 2018 and 2028 while
the nation’s manufacturing sector will see slight
contraction.
Detailed data on the nonfarm employment
outlook for Tennessee is presented in Table
3.1 and the Appendix tables of this report.
Professional and business services and education
and health services were two sectors that showed
robust employment gains between 2008 and
2018, and these two sectors will be important
contributors to job growth in the decade
ahead. The small information sector shed jobs
between 2008 and 2018, and further job losses
are projected out to 2028. A total of 288,500
jobs were created in Tennessee in the last decade
and 209,100 jobs are projected to be created
over the next decade. This reduced pace of job
creation reflects weaker job growth as the current
expansion ensues and then demographic factors
that limit the size of labor force growth to new
labor market entrants.
 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.2. Figure 3.1:EMPLOYMENT,

NONFARM Nonfarm Employment
CONTINUED and Manufacturing
Employment Slow and Return to Trend
Figure 3.1: Nonfarm Employment and Manufacturing Employment Slow and Return to Trend

6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Growth (%)

-4.0
-6.0
TN Total
-8.0
U.S. Total
-10.0 TN Mfg
-12.0 U.S. Mfg

-14.0
-16.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
*Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS MarkitTM; and Boyd CBER-UT.

Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment Outlook by Broad Sector

Employment (thous) Growth Rate*

Sector 2008 2018 2028 2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028
Total Nonfarm 2,775.3 3,063.8 3,272.9 0.99% 0.66%
Natural Resources, Mining & Construction 132.4 126.2 153.5 -0.48% 1.98%
Manufacturing 360.9 352.3 358.7 -0.24% 0.18%
Trade, Transportation, Utilities 600.3 629.4 612.0 0.47% -0.28%
Information 50.5 45.7 43.1 -1.00% -0.59%
Financial Activities 145.1 161.2 164.9 1.06% 0.23%
Professional & Business Services 321.9 416.7 504.0 2.62% 1.92%
Education & Health Services 361.0 439.8 520.8 1.99% 1.70%
Leisure & Hospitality 273.7 345.1 354.6 2.34% 0.27%
Other Services 104.5 115.6 114.8 1.01% -0.07%
Government 425.0 432.5 449.3 0.18% 0.38%

U.S. nonfarm (in millions) 137.2 149.0 157.7 0.83% 0.57%

U.S. manufacturing (in millions) 13.4 12.7 12.5 -0.53% -0.16%
*Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright), and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 59

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 3.2: Tennessee Manufacturing Employment in
Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Tennessee Sees
Figure 3.2: Tennessee Manufacturing Employment in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan
Growth
Tennessee Sees Growth
400.0
Total Metro Non-Metro
350.0

300.0
Employment, SA (thous)

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 3.2: Tennessee Manufacturing Employment Outlook by Sector

Employment (thous) Growth Rate*

Sector 2008 2018 2028 2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028
Manufacturing 360.9 352.3 358.7 -0.24% 0.18%
Total Durable Goods 220.8 224.6 234.4 0.17% 0.43%
Wood Products 14.3 12.6 13.7 -1.28% 0.84%
Nonmetallic Minerals 14.2 13.9 14.6 -0.23% 0.46%
Primary Metals 11.1 10.3 10.5 -0.74% 0.19%
Fabricated Metals 39.7 36.3 37.5 -0.89% 0.32%
Machinery 31.2 26.2 27.2 -1.72% 0.37%
Computers & Electronics 7.4 4.8 3.3 -4.29% -3.58%
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components 20.6 19.3 19.2 -0.61% -0.08%
Transportation Equipment 52.5 75.2 82.2 3.66% 0.90%
Furniture 14.2 9.6 9.7 -3.90% 0.14%
Miscellaneous Durables 15.5 16.4 16.5 0.53% 0.08%
Total Nondurable Goods 140.1 127.7 124.2 -0.92% -0.27%
Food 32.5 35.7 36.9 0.94% 0.35%
Beverage & Tobacco 5.1 7.5 8.1 4.00% 0.74%
Paper 17.2 14.6 14.4 -1.65% -0.11%
Printing & Related Support 15.7 9.0 8.3 -5.43% -0.81%
Chemicals 27.5 25.0 22.0 -0.97% -1.25%
Plastics & Rubber 25.4 25.0 25.2 -0.17% 0.09%
Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods 16.7 11.0 9.3 -4.10% -1.70%
*Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

60 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

A general feature of economic growth in Historical and projected figures on the

Tennessee and much of America is relatively
strong growth in metropolitan areas and
weak growth or outright contraction in rural
communities. Manufacturing’s roots in rural places
have weakened substantially overtime, contributing
to the broader pattern of weak rural growth.
However, many rural communities continue to
rely on manufacturing as their primary economic
base. As shown in Figure 3.2, non-metropolitan
places in Tennessee have seen some growth in
manufacturing employment dating back to 2011,
but the gains have been muted and have certainly
not benefited all communities. The scale of
manufacturing employment in metropolitan areas
of the state is much larger than the scale of the
manufacturing base in rural places. Moreover,
metropolitan areas have created far more jobs
in manufacturing than their non-metropolitan
counterparts in the last decade, including a quicker
rebound from the recession.
state’s manufacturing sector are provided in
Table 3.2. The 0.2 percent CAGR decline
in manufacturing employment between 2008
and 2018 masks considerable variation across
different subsectors of manufacturing. Notably,
the state’s nondurable goods manufacturing
sector lost jobs at a CAGR of 0.9 percent while
the durable goods sector showed a 0.2 percent
CAGR gain in jobs. A deeper dive into the data
for the durable goods sector shows that just
two subsectors—transportation equipment and
miscellaneous durable goods—accounted for
the gain as all other sectors witnessed job losses.
Within the nondurable goods sector, food and
beverage and tobacco created jobs while other
all subsectors lost jobs. Over the next ten years,
manufacturing jobs are projected to be up at a 0.2
percent CAGR, with durable goods showing 0.4
percent growth and nondurable goods showing
0.3 percent contraction.

A Changing Labor Force: Nontraditional Work Arrangements

In the gig economy, one might expect the demand for nontraditional workers to increase as online labor
platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk, Upwork, and Task Rabbit emerge. However, despite recent hype
about the growth of nontraditional work, the share of workers indicating nontraditional work as their main source
of income has not changed in 20 years.1 According to a new study by The Conference Board summarized here,
this lack of growth stems from occupational design, a declining trend towards outsourcing, and institutional policy.
However, with the emergence of new online platforms and policy shifts, the share of nontraditional workers is
expected to increase slightly in the future.2
Nontraditional work offers employers the flexibility to coordinate between the number of workers needed and
the amount of work available. These arrangements include temporary help workers, independent contractors,
and workers hired by outsourcing companies. Generally, these jobs offer relatively low pay and involve performing
non-core functions where tasks are well-defined. In this way, output can easily be measured and monitored. Jobs
usually demand recent or emerging skills and are tied to seasonal or varying demand. Due to these features, jobs
are concentrated into a small number of occupations such as artists, designers, language and writing services,
and clerical or office support.

Continued on Page 62

1
Bureau of Labor Statistics – 2017 Contingent Worker Supplement.
2
Gad Levanon, Elizabeth Crofoot, and Brian Schaitkin, “Contrary to the Hype – Real Trends in Nontraditional Work,” The Conference Board,
Research Report 1673-18, 2018.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 61

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

A Changing Labor Force, continued from Page 61

Due to the specificity of job opportunities and eligible workers, online platforms have emerged as a
channel where employers can access nontraditional workers and their skillsets. While the number of
platforms is growing, usage has remained stagnant with the exception the transportation sector. The
explosion of growth in the transportation sector is mainly due to the popularity of ride-sharing services
such as Uber and Lyft. The characteristics of this sector make this a favorable environment for the
growth of nontraditional workers. For example, the task for employees is easy to define and monitor,
requiring no underlying institutional knowledge. Additionally, demand for these services is more
predictable, generating more predictable income flows.
A number of factors constrain the growth of nontraditional work. Many employment opportunities
stem from outsourcing non-core operations, a trend that has slowed considerably. Further, outsourcing
a large number of nontraditional workers can be operationally difficult. Additionally, nontraditional
workers do not qualify for employee benefits distributed to traditional, permanent workers. In the
currently tight labor market, many nontraditional workers have been enticed into traditional jobs that
offer steady income flow and employee benefits. This has decreased the supply of nontraditional
workers, thus increasing their relative wages. However, this makes it more expensive to hire, reducing
the benefit of employing nontraditional workers. Finally, many occupations are not compatible with
nontraditional work, limiting potential growth opportunities.
These constraints are less prevalent in European countries where nationalized healthcare reduces
the employer benefit discrepancy between traditional and nontraditional workers. Further, European
employment policies protect traditional workers from firing, leading to an increased incentive to hire
nontraditional workers. As such, the share of nontraditional workers is larger in Europe than the U.S.
Recent expansions in U.S. healthcare policy have closed this gap slightly. With the passage of the
Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, the share of workers choosing part-time employment increased
modestly. This may be a result of employers with flexible scheduling dropping their number of full-time
employees below 50 and reducing their burden to provide employee health coverage. Regardless,
the expansion of health coverage provided by the ACA reduced the coverage discrepancy between
traditional and nontraditional workers and increased the share of part-time workers.
While growth in the share of nontraditional workers has been somewhat stagnant, the number of
nontraditional workers is expected to increase due to the expansion of healthcare reform and online
platforms. Additionally, the growth in nontraditional workers and increased prevalence of online
platforms could disrupt staffing and business service companies dealing with temporary employee
placements. The tight labor market will continue to limit the supply of nontraditional workers as more
workers opt for traditional employment, spiking an increase in the relative wages of nontraditional
workers.
Despite this anticipated growth, the share of nontraditional workers engaging in online platforms
is still less than 1 percent of U.S. workers. While many occupations will never be compatible with
nontraditional work, some could use the benefits of increased flexibility. This would allow employers
to cut costs and increase productivity by hiring nontraditional workers. Therefore, the expansion of
nontraditional worker as a share of the U.S. workforce could increase economic growth.

62 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


Figure 3.3: Alternative
3.3. UNEMPLOYMENT Measures of the Unemployment
Rate Have Shown Marked Improvement Since the Great
Figure 3.3: AlternativeRecession
Measures of the Unemployment Rate
Have Shown Marked Improvement Since the Great Recession
Tennessee
20.0
18.0
Unemployment Rate (%)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
U-3 U-4
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment rates skyrocketed during the
Great Recession, peaking at 10.5 percent in 2009,
but slowly and steadily edged down yielding record
low rates for Tennessee. Figure 3.3 displays this
trend for the state and the nation, using three
different measures of the unemployment rate. The
U3 unemployment rate is the headline rate that
the media and others tend to focus on. The U3
rates jumped as the recession took hold of the
state and national economies and now rest below
pre-recession rates. The headline rate was roundly
criticized during the recovery for not accounting for
discouraged workers—workers who were marginally
attached to the labor force and workers who held
part-time jobs but wanted more hours of work.
The punchline: unemployment was much more
pervasive than suggested by the headline U3 rate.
The U4 rate accounts for discouraged workers who
left the labor force because of bleak employment
prospects; the U5 rate includes discouraged workers
as well as those marginally attached to the labor
force; and the U6 measure includes discouraged
workers, marginally attached workers and those
workers wanting more hours. As is clear from
The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3
U.S.
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
U-5 U-6 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6
Figure 3.3, like the headline rate, all measures have
returned to pre-recession rates. This is illustrative
of the challenges employers will find in the quarters
ahead as they seek to hire new workers.
The fall in unemployment rates has been rather
remarkable, with all regions of the state seeing
improvement. Figure 3.4 shows the trend for
metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas dating
back to the first quarter of 2008 when rates were on
the ascent. Non-metropolitan rates peaked at much
higher levels than non-metropolitan rates, but both
rates trended down together to reach current lows
that are beneath pre-recession lows. Figure 3.5
presents non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates
for Tennessee counties, showing that rates remain
elevated in rural places across the state. Twenty-one
counties in Tennessee had non-seasonally-adjusted
rates above 4.8 percent in September. Metropolitan
areas and the middle Tennessee region generally enjoy
the lowest unemployment rates.
The unemployment outlook for Tennessee
and the U.S. is presented in Figure 3.6. Rates are
expected to inch upward in the early 2020s with
slower growth in the current expansion limiting
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 63
CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.3. UNEMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

Figure 3.4: Tennessee Metropolitan and Non-
Metropolitan Unemployment Rates Make Record Gains
Figure 3.4:
Tennessee Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Unemployment Rates Make Record Gains
18.0
Total Metro Non-Metro
16.0
Unemployment Rate, SA (%)

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 3.5: September Unemployment Rates Remain

Figure 3.5: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate
Elevated
Will Sit Below the National in Rural Tennessee
Rate Throughout the Long-Term Forecast Horizon
Tennessee: 3.7%
United States: 3.6%

2.7% to 3.7% Note: Data are not

3.8% to 4.7% seasonally adjusted.
4.8% to 5.7% Source: Bureau of
5.8% to 6.5% Labor Statistics.
Figure 3.6: Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment
Rates Bottom Out
Figure 3.6: Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rates Bottom Out
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.
12.0 Tennessee
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S.
10.0
Unemployment Rate (%)

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

64 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.3. UNEMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED

the economy’s capacity to absorb workers into the range through the long-term outlook horizon.
labor force and demographic factors limiting the Based on short-term and long-term history, expect
number of new entrants to the labor market. Rates unemployment rates in rural places to remain higher
then revert to trend rates in the middle 4 percent than in metropolitan areas.

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

Population growth is an important metric of
economic development success because people
tend to follow economic opportunity. Strong
economies draw in population while weak
and contracting economies shed population.
Population growth is key to fostering economy-
wide growth through expansions of the labor
force. Lower fertility rates will contribute to lower
labor force growth as the economy moves through
the decade of the 2020s and beyond. Poor health
status in Tennessee may weaken labor force growth
as well, based on historical trends.
Tennessee’s population was up 8.4 percent
between 2008 and 2018, reflecting a CAGR of
0.8 percent. Over the same time period, the U.S.
Figure 3.7: Middle Tennessee Population Growth Dominates
Statewide
Figure 3.7: Middle Tennessee Population Growth Dominates Statewide
showed slightly slower growth of 8.0 percent for
a CAGR of just under 0.8 percent. As shown in
Figure 3.7 and Table 3.3, the middle Tennessee
region of the state experienced the strongest
population growth between 2008 and 2018,
with six counties showing population growth in
excess of 15 percent; no other county in the state
experienced growth above 15 percent. Thirty
counties saw population contraction between
2008 and 2018. These same counties experienced
significant economic pressures.
Figure 3.7 and Table 3.3 also provide the
county-by-county population outlook for the
state out to 2028. For the state as a whole,
population should be up 7.8 percent by 2028,

2008 to 2018

Tennessee: 8.4%
United States: 8.0%
Loss or 0.0%
0.1% to 7.9%
8.0% to 14.9%
15.0% or greater

2018 to 2028

Tennessee: 7.8%
United States: 7.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 65

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED

Table 3.3: Tennessee Inflation-Adjusted GDP Outlook by Sector

GDP (mil 2012$) Growth Rate*

Sector 2008 2018 2028 2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028
Gross Domestic Product 257,925 307,025 367,671 1.76% 1.82%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 1,836 1,199 1,142 -4.17% -0.48%
Natural Resources & Mining 2,952 2,309 2,513 -2.43% 0.85%
Construction 10,494 10,943 12,233 0.42% 1.12%
Manufacturing 42,805 49,690 60,043 1.50% 1.91%
Durable Goods 24,875 29,218 36,047 1.62% 2.12%
Nondurable Goods 17,930 20,472 23,996 1.33% 1.60%
Trade 52,278 59,865 69,501 1.36% 1.50%
Wholesale Trade 19,436 21,729 26,520 1.12% 2.01%
Retail Trade 18,830 23,116 26,210 2.07% 1.26%
Transportation & Utilities 14,013 15,020 16,770 0.70% 1.11%
Information 8,100 10,758 15,409 2.88% 3.66%
Financial Activities 37,519 50,365 60,845 2.99% 1.91%
Professional & Business Services 26,488 35,278 47,545 2.91% 3.03%
Education & Health Services 25,111 31,999 38,990 2.45% 2.00%
Leisure & Hospitality 11,562 14,764 17,075 2.47% 1.46%
Other Services 6,767 6,918 7,353 0.22% 0.61%
Government 32,012 32,937 35,023 0.29% 0.62%
Federal 8,036 8,820 9,054 0.94% 0.26%
State & Local 23,976 24,117 25,970 0.06% 0.74%

*Compound Annual Growth Rate.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

for a CAGR of 0.8 percent. The U.S. will see
slightly slower growth between 2008 and 2018.
Middle Tennessee is projected to continue its
rapid population growth, with five counties
expected to see growth above 15 percent. This
will lead to congestion and pressures on the
public infrastructure, including public schools.
There are pockets where population growth is
expected to be relatively strong around Memphis,
the Cumberland Plateau, Knoxville and the Tri-
Cities. Rural Tennessee will see weak population
growth. Twenty-eight counties are expected to
see declining populations by 2028. These same
places are likely to see employment contraction
and further weakening of the economic base.
The long period between 2008 and 2028 will
be characterized by an ongoing reshaping of the
spatial distribution of Tennessee’s population.
Rural communities that are far removed from the
state’s metropolitan areas are experiencing weak
population growth or population contraction,
while those closer to metropolitan areas are
experiencing somewhat stronger if not vibrant
growth. Metropolitan areas are seeing the
strongest growth in population. As shown in
Figure 3.8, metropolitan areas are accounting for a
larger and larger share of the statewide population.
The productivity characteristics of workers in
the labor force are key to determining individual
and regional economic prosperity. In general, better
educated and healthier individuals enjoy higher
earnings for themselves and their families. Similarly,

66 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED

Figure 3.8: Tennesseans Increasingly Live in
Metropolitan Areas
Figure 3.8: Tennesseans Increasingly Live in Metropolitan Areas

Metro Share Non-Metro Share

100.0%

95.0%

90.0%

85.0%

80.0%

75.0%

70.0%

Source:
Source: U.S. CensusU.S. Census
Bureau Bureau
and Boyd Center and Boyd Center
for Business for Business
and Economic Research.and Economic Research.

The Decline in Interstate Migration

Americans are known for their mobility, often symbolically reflected by their attachment to the automobile.
Americans are also known for their internal migration within the U.S., dating back to the early east-to-west
settlement of the country. The 20th century was characterized by three large waves of internal migration from the
south, including the exodus of millions of blacks, the southern diaspora that included whites and those fleeing the
Dust Bowl of the 1930s. A common thread to this migration is the pursuit of greater opportunity, a defining feature
of America.
Despite the penchant for mobility, there is growing evidence that internal migration has slowed markedly, even
on the part of new international immigrants to the U.S. This evidence is in sharp contrast to the popular notion
that the number of jobs one will hold over their lifetime is growing because of the increasing pace of technological
change. Economists and policymakers are concerned about reduced mobility because of the implications for
worker-employer job matching in the labor market. Frictions that imped labor market matching mean slower
adaption to economic shocks, diminished earnings opportunities for workers, higher unemployment rates and
inefficiencies in production.
So why has internal migration slowed? Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl (2017) note that 3 percent of Americans
moved between the states in 1990, whereas today the mobility rate has been cut in half. Using data from the
Current Population Survey, they show a significant reduction in the number of moves related to securing a new job or
accepting a job transfer relative to other reasons for mobility. Malloy et al. (2016) look more generally at labor market
fluidity that includes additional transitions like quits. They find evidence of new trends of diminished fluidity emerging
Continued on Page 68

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 67

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED

The Decline in Interstate Migration, continued from Page 67

as early as the late 1970s.1 Both papers seek to identify explanations for this emerging puzzle and consider factors
like changes in industrial composition, the rise of dual-earner households and the aging of the population.
Malloy, et al. do not reach consensus on what is causing these new trends. However, Kaplan and Schulhofer-
Wohl provide strong evidence that job opportunities have become more similar across places over time. This
trend has been accompanied by reduced interregional productivity dispersions. Diminished productivity
dispersion means reduced wage differentials across the states and therefore a diminished incentive to migrate for
new employment opportunities. They attribute the findings to improved information on employment opportunities
and the locational attributes of different places. Another factor is that businesses have moved around the country
in pursuit of labor cost advantages, narrowing interregional wage differentials. If these findings hold up to further
scrutiny, it should dispel concerns that reduced mobility reflects labor market imperfections and frictions.

1
Greg Kaplan and Sam Scholhofer-Wohl, “Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration,” International Economic Review 58, 2017
and Raven Molly, Christopher L. Smith, Ricardo Trezzi and Abigail Wozniak, “Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market,” Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, available at https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/molloytextspring16bpea.pdf.

regions that have a better educated and healthier
adult population are more prosperous. Tennesseans
have historically shown trailing levels of educational
attainment and poorer health status than their
national counterparts. This has contributed to
relatively lower levels of income in Tennessee than
the U.S. In 2017, Tennessee per capita income was
just 88.1 percent of the national average.
Figure 3.9 provides an illustration of the
importance of educational attainment to regional
economic wellbeing using three different metrics
of economic success: the unemployment rate
(2017), employment growth (measured between
2008 and 2017) and per capita personal income
(2016). In the figure, Tennessee’s 95 counties are
placed into one of five groups depending on the
educational attainment of the adult population in
the county. Group 5 includes the 19 counties with
the highest levels of attainment while Group 1
includes the 19 counties with the lowest levels of
attainment, where attainment is measured by the
share of adults with a high school degree. Note
that the educational attainment measure does not
materially affect the outcomes, similar findings
would surface for other measures of attainment
like bachelor’s degree attainment.
It is clear from Figure 3.9 that the counties
with the lowest levels of attainment displayed
relatively high 2017 unemployment rates. However,
as county educational attainment improves, the
unemployment rate consistently falls across the five
county groupings. Educational attainment and per
capita income also show a strong and consistent
relationship: as attainment improves, per capita
income rises. The relationship between educational
attainment and long-term employment growth
between 2008 and 2017 is stark. The bottom
two county groups with the lowest attainment
had fewer jobs in 2017 than in 2008; group 3 was
barely able to eke out employment gains over this
long window of time. On the other hand, the
38 counties in Groups 4 and 5 showed robust
employment growth. These regional findings are
a reflection of the individual characteristics of the
population in each of the counties.
Figure 3.10 uses the same structure as Figure
3.9 but focuses on adult disability rates rather than
educational attainment. A largely similar pattern
emerges in the data. Unemployment rates are
highest in Group 1 where disability rates are the
highest. As disability rates fall moving to Group
5, unemployment rates consistently fall. Per capita
income is also highly correlated with regional
disability rates, with the 19 counties in Group

68 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED

Figure 3.9: Regional Economic Prosperity Hinges on
Educational Attainment of the Population
Figure 3.9: Regional Economic Prosperity Hinges on Educational Attainment of the Population

Unemp Rate 2017 Employment Growth 2008-17 Per Capita Income 2016
12.0 60,000
11.4
10.0 $48,320 50,000
Unemp Rate and Emp Growth (%)

Per Capita Income ($)

8.0 $37,858 40,000
$34,756 8.0
$32,335
$29,679
6.0 30,000

4.0 4.9 20,000

4.5 4.4
4.0
3.4
2.0 10,000

0.8
0.0 0
-0.5 -1.4
-2.0 -10,000
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
*Share
*Share of persons of persons
18 years 18 are
and older who years and older
high school who
graduates are inhigh
grouped school
quintiles. Groupgraduates
1 includes thegrouped in quintiles.
19 counties with the lowest attainment; 1 includes
GroupGroup 5 includes the 19
counties withthe
the 19 counties
highest with the lowest attainment; Group 5 includes the 19 counties with the highest attainment.
attainment.
Source: Calculated by Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research using data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Calculated by Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research using data from the U.S. Census Bureau;
Bureau of Economic Analysis; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 3.10: Disability Rates Affect Regional Economic

Figure 3.10: Disability Rates Affect Regional Economic Outcomes
Outcomes
Unemp Rate 2017 Employment Growth 2008-17 Per Capita Income 2016
12.0 60,000
11.9
10.0 $48,710 50,000
Unemp Rate and Emp Growth (%)

Per Capita Income ($)

8.0 $36,486 40,000

$33,850 $35,807
$31,168
7.0
6.0 30,000

5.0
4.0 4.4 4.7 4.3
20,000
3.9
3.4
2.0 10,000
1.6
0.0 0
-1.8
-2.0 -10,000
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
*Share
*Share of persons 18 toof
64persons 18disabled
years who are to 64 grouped
years who are Group
in quintiles. disabled grouped
1 includes in quintiles.
the 18 counties Group
with the highest of includes
rates 1 the5 18
disability; Group counties
includes with
the 17 counties
with the lowest
therates of disability.
highest rates of disability; Group 5 includes the 17 counties with the lowest rates of disability.
Source: Calculated by Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research using data from the U.S. Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Calculated by Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research using data from the U.S. Census Bureau;
Bureau of Economic Analysis; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 69

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED
5 showing the highest per capita incomes. The
relationship between county disability rates and job
growth between 2008 and 2017 is also quite strong,
with Group 4 and Group 5 each enjoying much
higher job growth than the other county groupings.
Group 3 is striking for its loss of employment.
3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT
Personal income is a broad measure of wellbeing
that includes income of all types that accrues to
residents of the state regardless of where it is earned.
Included in personal income are wages and salaries,
farm and non-farm proprietors’ income, rent, interest,
dividends, transfer payments, other labor income and
a residence adjustment. The residence adjustment
accounts for income earned by Tennesseans outside
the state and income earned in Tennessee by non-
residents of the state. The residence adjustment
is generally negative, indicating that non-residents
earn more income in Tennessee than Tennesseans
earn elsewhere. (See Appendix Tables 4.) Personal
income is often a preferred measure of wellbeing
compared to GDP since it reflects the income that
directly accrues to Tennesseans.
Per capita income in Tennessee has shown
steady improvement over time, but still lags the
national average by more than a 10 percentage
point margin. The state’s standing relative to the
nation has been stagnant for many years. As shown
in Figure 3.11, Tennessee’s per capita personal
income stood at $45,517 in 2017 compared to
$51,640 for the U.S. Within the southeast region,
Tennessee ranks third behind Virginia ($55,105) and
Florida ($47,684). Note that Virginia is the only
southeastern state with per capita personal income
greater than the national average.
Figure 3.12 provides data on per capita personal
income across Tennessee counties. Income is skewed
across the state, displaying a significant urban/rural
divide. Only three counties have per capita income
greater than the national average, and they are all large,
metropolitan counties. Another six counties have per
capita income greater than the state average. All of
these prosperous communities are characterized by
well-educated adult populations. Eight counties have
70 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The lesson here is that investments in people—
human capital—matters. Both education and health
status have a measurable impact on individual and
community wellbeing through standard labor market
metrics including employment, the unemployment
rate and per capita income.
incomes that are less than $30,000 per year, which is
about two-thirds of the state average. These counties
have relatively poorly educated adult populations.
Tennessee’s nominal per capita income is
projected to be up at a 3.2 percent compound annual
growth rate between 2018 and 2028. U.S. per capita
income is expected to show stronger growth of 3.6
percent. This will widen the wedge between the state
and nation’s per capita income by 2028. Total wage
and salary income growth will be modest through the
forecast horizon largely because of relatively weak
growth in employment. Proprietors’ income and
rent, interest and dividend income are expected to
display healthy growth.
Average annual wages and salaries have
shown anemic growth since the end of the Great
Recession, a pattern that has been highlighted in
the popular press. In 2009, when the economy
bottomed out, Tennessee’s average wage was up
only 0.5 percent. Natural resources, mining and
construction, trade, transportation and utilities,
and leisure and hospitality services actually
experienced reductions in nominal average earnings
in 2009. The overall pattern of earnings has been
disappointing, but has generally aligned with a
period of mediocre productivity growth.
Ever-tightening labor markets have finally
produced some upward pressure on average earnings
based on national employment cost index data. In
Tennessee, a clear upward pattern has yet to establish
itself, but there are nuggets in the data suggesting
upward pressure, including the first quarter of 2018
when the seasonally-adjusted wage jumped 5.8
percent. The next three years should see nominal
wage growth in excess of three percent. If this
pattern is realized, it will represent the strongest string
of growth in more than a decade.
 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

Figure 3.11: Tennessee Has the Third Highest Per

3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED

CapitaFigure
Personal Income
3.11: Tennessee Among
Has the Third thePersonal
Highest Per Capita Southeastern
Income

States (2017)
Among the Southeastern States (2017)

$38,479
$55,105
$40,597

$45,517 $44,222

$41,406
$41,633

$36,636 $40,805 $44,145

United States: $51,640

$43,660

$47,684

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 3.12: Just Three Tennessee Counties Enjoy per

Capita Personal Incomes Greater than the National
Average
Figure 3.12: (2017) Counties
Just Three Tennessee
Enjoy per Capita Personal Incomes Greater than the National Average (2017)
Tennessee: $45,517
United States: $51,640

Less than $30,000

$30,000 to $45,517
$45,518 to $51,640
Greater than $51,640

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 71

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED
Figure 3.13: Real GDP per Worker Has Shown Weak
Gains Since the Great Recession
Figure 3.13: Real GDP per Worker Has Shown Weak Gains Since the Great Recession
180,000
170,000
160,000
Real Dollars (2012$)
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
Source:
Source: Calculated by Boyd CenterCalculated by and
for Business Boyd Center for
Economic
Research
and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There has been considerable discussion of
relatively low rates of GDP growth for the state
and national economies since the end of the last
recession. An important contributing factor has
been low growth in productivity. There is still no
consensus on why productivity has become so
sluggish. One explanation is diminished marginal
gains from the computer revolution. The service
sector generally suffers from relatively weak gains
in productivity, and its rise has been another
one of the factors contributing to slower overall
productivity growth. Manufacturing, on the other
hand, has generally seen stronger productivity
growth, propelled by market forces. However, this
growth has still been weaker than the longer-term
historical trend.
One basic measure of productivity is simply
output per worker. Figure 3.13 shows inflation-
adjusted output per worker for the state and
national economies and for the state and national
manufacturing sectors. Two important patterns
emerge from this figure. First, Tennessee’s output
per worker trails the nation’s, for both overall
output and manufacturing output. There has
been no material improvement in the 2008‑2018
window. Second, there have been few gains since
2009 when the economy began. The absence of
strong productivity gains translates into relatively
72 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TN Total TN Mfg U.S. Total U.S. Mfg
Business
anddata
using Economic Research
from the using
Bureau of data from
Economic the Bureau
Analysis and theofBureau
Economic Analysis
of Labor Statistics.
weak output growth and weak earnings growth.
Since the end of the recession, Tennessee’s
GDP has seen average annual inflation-
adjusted growth of only about 1.7 percent,
well below historical standards. GDP should
be up 2.7 percent in 2018 and 2.6 percent in
2019, benefiting from strong economy-wide
conditions and federal tax cuts. Growth will slip
below 2 percent in 2020 and beyond as capacity
constraints (including the labor market) and low
productivity hold back growth. The outlook
for Tennessee and the U.S. is relatively similar as
shown in Figure 3.14.
Table 3.4 provides historical and projected
inflation-adjusted output data for the state
economy. The long-term historical and projected
output growth rates are largely comparable, despite
relatively weak projections out to 2028. A primary
explanation is that data back to 2008 include one
year with growth of just 0.5 percent (2008) and
a year with a sharp contraction of 3.7 percent
(2009). Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting is
the only sector expected to experience contraction
between 2008 and 2018. The manufacturing
sector will enjoy growth of 1.9 percent, ahead of
the overall rate of output growth (1.8 percent).
Output growth will be strongest in the information
and professional and business services sectors.
 The Tennessee Economy: Long Term Outlook | CHAPTER 3

3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED

Figure 3.14: Tennessee and U.S. Inflation-Adjusted
GDP Slow as the Economy Confronts the Constraints
Figure 3.14: Tennessee and U.S. Inflation-Adjusted GDP Slow
of Full Employment
as the Economy Confronts the Constraints of Full Employment
TN U.S.
4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0
Growth (%)

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Markit™ (copyright); and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

Table 3.4: Population Growth Shows Wide Variation Across Tennessee

2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028 2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028 2008 to 2018 2018 to 2028
Chg CAGR Chg CAGR Chg CAGR Chg CAGR Chg CAGR Chg CAGR
Area (%) (%) (%) (%) Area (%) (%) (%) (%) Area (%) (%) (%) (%)
U.S. 8.0 0.77 7.9 0.76 Grundy -5.1 -0.53 -6.4 -0.66 Moore 1.0 0.10 2.6 0.25
TENNESSEE 8.4 0.81 7.8 0.75 Hamblen 3.9 0.39 5.3 0.52 Morgan 0.0 0.00 2.7 0.27
Hamilton 10.7 1.02 7.5 0.72 Obion -5.1 -0.52 -4.7 -0.48
Anderson 3.0 0.29 3.1 0.31 Hancock -3.5 -0.36 -5.4 -0.55 Overton 2.3 0.22 3.0 0.30
Bedford 10.0 0.96 13.0 1.23 Hardeman -9.5 -0.99 -5.3 -0.54 Perry 2.6 0.25 1.0 0.10
Benton -2.9 -0.30 -2.8 -0.28 Hardin -1.5 -0.16 -1.7 -0.18 Pickett 0.1 0.01 -2.1 -0.21
Bledsoe 13.9 1.31 5.6 0.55 Hawkins -0.1 -0.01 -1.3 -0.13 Polk 0.7 0.07 1.8 0.18
Blount 8.1 0.78 9.4 0.90 Haywood -7.4 -0.76 -7.9 -0.82 Putnam 9.4 0.91 8.4 0.81
Bradley 9.0 0.87 7.8 0.75 Henderson 1.6 0.15 3.6 0.36 Rhea 4.8 0.47 4.8 0.47
Campbell -2.1 -0.21 -0.5 -0.05 Henry 1.1 0.11 0.4 0.04 Roane -2.8 -0.28 -1.6 -0.16
Cannon 2.1 0.21 1.6 0.16 Hickman -0.7 -0.07 1.7 0.17 Robertson 9.4 0.90 10.9 1.04
Carroll -2.6 -0.26 -3.6 -0.36 Houston -2.2 -0.22 -0.1 -0.01 Rutherford 28.0 2.50 23.4 2.12
Carter -2.9 -0.29 -3.7 -0.38 Humphreys -0.3 -0.03 -0.5 -0.05 Scott -1.0 -0.10 0.0 0.00
Cheatham 3.3 0.32 2.6 0.26 Jackson 1.1 0.11 2.6 0.26 Sequatchie 9.8 0.94 10.4 0.99
Chester 4.8 0.47 5.0 0.49 Jefferson 6.6 0.64 6.0 0.59 Sevier 13.1 1.24 13.0 1.23
Claiborne -0.5 -0.05 -0.2 -0.02 Johnson -2.5 -0.26 -0.9 -0.09 Shelby 2.4 0.24 3.9 0.38
Clay -2.2 -0.23 -5.4 -0.56 Knox 9.2 0.89 8.2 0.79 Smith 2.8 0.28 5.1 0.49
Cocke -1.1 -0.11 -0.8 -0.08 Lake -2.7 -0.27 1.9 0.19 Stewart 0.2 0.02 0.6 0.06
Coffee 5.8 0.57 7.1 0.69 Lauderdale -3.8 -0.38 -0.8 -0.08 Sullivan 0.4 0.04 -1.1 -0.11
Crockett -0.6 -0.06 0.6 0.06 Lawrence 5.1 0.50 1.9 0.19 Sumner 19.2 1.77 15.0 1.41
Cumberland 8.5 0.82 8.1 0.78 Lewis -0.8 -0.08 -1.8 -0.18 Tipton 4.0 0.39 8.7 0.84
Davidson 14.3 1.35 10.0 0.95 Lincoln 2.6 0.25 1.4 0.14 Trousdale 8.8 0.85 10.4 0.99
Decatur -0.1 -0.01 -1.9 -0.19 Loudon 11.5 1.09 10.5 1.00 Unicoi -2.8 -0.29 -0.1 -0.01
De Kalb 4.6 0.45 3.4 0.34 McMinn 1.8 0.18 2.8 0.28 Union 0.3 0.03 1.3 0.13
Dickson 9.1 0.88 9.8 0.94 McNairy 1.0 0.10 1.1 0.11 Van Buren 2.3 0.23 -3.2 -0.33
Dyer -1.0 -0.10 0.0 0.00 Macon 8.9 0.85 9.3 0.89 Warren 2.8 0.28 0.9 0.09
Fayette 7.6 0.74 12.2 1.16 Madison 1.2 0.12 2.5 0.25 Washington 8.2 0.79 8.0 0.78
Fentress 1.8 0.18 1.6 0.16 Marion 2.1 0.21 3.4 0.34 Wayne -2.0 -0.20 -2.4 -0.24
Franklin 1.8 0.18 1.0 0.10 Marshall 8.1 0.78 8.1 0.78 Weakley -3.6 -0.37 -3.3 -0.34
Gibson 1.2 0.12 3.3 0.33 Maury 15.9 1.48 11.8 1.12 White 5.6 0.54 4.5 0.44
Giles -1.6 -0.16 -2.3 -0.24 Meigs 4.5 0.44 3.2 0.31 Williamson 31.1 2.74 23.7 2.15
Grainger 3.9 0.39 2.4 0.24 Monroe 4.8 0.47 4.3 0.42 Wilson 24.9 2.25 17.6 1.64
Greene 1.2 0.12 2.3 0.23 Montgomery 26.0 2.33 20.5 1.89

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 73

CHAPTER 3 | The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook

3.6. FORECAST AT A GLANCE

• Nonfarm employment growth will slow in the near-term as the current expansion encounters
growing pains and labor market constraints. As the economy transitions to is long-term trend,
employment growth will be limited to new entrants to the labor market. Expect nonfarm employment to
be up at a modest 0.7 percent compound annual rate between 2018 and 2028.
• The state unemployment rate will remain below 4 percent through 2022 and then move above 4
percent for the remainder of the decade.
• Tennessee’s inflation-adjusted GDP should see 1.8 percent compound growth over the next
decade with similar growth expected for U.S. GDP.
• Nominal personal income in Tennessee will be up at a 4.0 percent rate through the long-term
forecast horizon. Weak employment growth will constrain the growth of wage and salary income.

3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS

Introduction growth, tighter mortgage standards, rising

The millennial generation, also referred to as
Generation Y, is the generation of technological
change and globalization. Born between the years
of 1980 and 2000, millennials are among the most
diverse and technologically-advanced workers in
the labor force.1 However, this generation has
become known as the “Peter Pan” generation for
postponing major life decisions such as moving
out, marrying, having children, purchasing a home,
etc. While some of these generational trends
may be due to cultural shifts, much of it could
be due to economic and labor market outcomes
experienced early on in millennials’ entrance into
the labor force.
The millennial generation has been deeply
affected by the Great Recession. Many had
just begun entering the labor force around the
2008-2009 financial crisis,2 which led to higher
unemployment rates for millennial workers relative
to other generations. Higher unemployment rates
in the early stages of career development resulted
in lower earnings and lessened the potential for
wealth accumulation.3 Further, sluggish income
student debt, and soaring rent gains have affected
millennials’ participation in the housing market.4
Early estimates indicate millennials are less inclined
to purchase a home than previous generations
at the same age. However, it may be too early
to make any definitive statements regarding
homeownership.
Lower participation in the housing market also
coincides with more millennials living in multi-
generational households and waiting longer to get
married. Living longer with their parents and/or
grandparents has lowered the necessity of buying a
house early in their career. Additionally, the average
age of a first-time marriage among this age group
is now 28. Waiting longer for marriage tends to
coincide with waiting longer to have children,
thus, millennials tend to be older at the time of
household formation. Most recently, the Centers
for Disease Control reported that the mean age of
a mother at the birth of her first child is now 1.5
years later than in 2000.
Finally, because millennials are the largest
generation in the labor force, these changes in
spending habits, housing decisions, and fertility

1
Fry, Richard. “5 Facts about Millennial Households.” Pew Research Center, 6 Sept. 2017, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/06/5-facts-about-millennial-
households/.
2
The oldest millennials were 27 in 2007.
3
Altonji, Joseph G., Lisa B. Kahn, and Jamin D. Speer. “Cashier or consultant? Entry labor market conditions, field of study, and career success.” Journal of Labor
Economics 34, no. S1 (2016): S361-S401.
4
Sarah House, “Are Millennials Moving out and Settling Down?” Wells Fargo, 2017. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/millenials-moving-
out-20171205_5122017.pdf

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Figure 3.15: Millennials Are Renting Rather Than Buying

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1975 2016

Millennial (born 1981 to 2000) Baby Boom (born 1946 to 1964)

Generation X (born 1965 to 1980) Silent (born 1929 to 1945)

GI (born 1928 and earlier)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey.

will reshape current markets.5 Dominating the
economy’s share of wage earners, millennials
will have a significant impact on the economy
in the coming years. The discussion that follows
highlights some of the more fundamental market
changes that are expected in the years to come.
Housing
The impact of the millennial generation
on the housing market remains uncertain as
homeownership rates among young families fall,
possibly indicating a generational trend away
from traditional single-family homeownership.
This could have implications for land use,
construction activity, the production of home
furnishings, the nature of transportation networks,
and so on. However, due to economic and
generational factors, this may simply represent
a trend toward homeownership later in life,
rather than abandonment of the housing market
altogether. The millennial generation could match
5
Fry, Richard. “Millennials are the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.” Pew Research Center, 11 April 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/11/
millennials-largest-generation-us-labor-force/
6
Sarah House, “Are Millennials Moving out and Settling Down?” Wells Fargo, 2017. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/millenials-moving-
out-20171205_5122017.pdf
homeownership rates of previous generations at
later stages in life.
Currently, millennials represent the largest
generation of renters in the U.S. In 2016,
millennials headed roughly 40 percent of the 45.9
million households renting their home, dominating
the nation’s share of renters. Coinciding with
an increase in young renters, the share of
homeowners less than 35 years old has decreased
over the last few decades. Since 1982, the share of
homeowners under 35 has fallen from 41 percent
to 35 percent. There are a variety of factors that
could be attributing to this decrease in young adult
homeownership.
Millennials’ economic and social conditions
are delaying first-time homebuyers among today’s
young adults. Because housing prices have largely
been attractive until the last couple of years, other
factors such as later family formation, student
debt burdens and educational attainment are all
contributing to lower homeownership rates.6 The
average age of first time marriage and motherhood

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share of homeowners under 35 has been falling since 1982

3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

Figure 3.16: Share of Homewoners Under 35 Has Been Falling Since 1982

42

40

38

36

34

32
1982 1999 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - 2017 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership.

has risen in recent years, indicating millennials are are still living with their parents.10 This might seem
waiting longer to form families. The average age unsurprising considering the poverty rate among
of a millennial at their first marriage has risen to younger households has been increasing over the
28, much older than previous generations.7 This past half century.11 As of 2016, more households
is significant because marriage is the number headed by a millennial are in poverty than any
one predictor of whether people buy homes.8 other generation.
An average of 66 percent of homeowners are Furthermore, millennials are afflicted with
married.9 In addition to marrying later, the average more student debt than previous generations. The
age of first-time motherhood is on the rise. The percent of young families with student debt has
CDC reported that the mean age of a mother at risen to 41 percent from 17 percent in 1989.12 Not
the birth of her first child is now 1.5 years later only has the prevalence of student debt increased,
than in 2000. Thus, the social trends of waiting to but the amount of debt has nearly tripled across
marry and have children have led to later family the same period. Large amounts of debt may
and household formation. inhibit or postpone housing (and other asset)
Another contributing factor to later household purchases due to credit constraints. Further, studies
formation is the rise in multi-generational show that graduates without student debt have
households. Currently, 33 percent of millennials higher homeownership rates than those that do.13
7
While most millennials are delaying marriage, most eventually still tie the knot according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In the 1970s, 8 out of 10 people were married
by age 30; however, not until the age of 45 are 8 out of 10 people married today.
8
Knowledge@Wharton, “Why Millennials Are Moving the Needle on the Real Estate Market,” 2 Feb. 2018, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/millennials-
housing-market/
9
Zillow Research, “The Zillow Group Report on Consumer Housing Trends”, 18 Oct. 2016, https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-group-report-2016-13279/
10
Jonathan Vespa, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975-2016”. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017. https://www.census.gov/library/
publications/2017/demo/p20-579.html
11
Fry, Richard. “5 Facts about Millennial Households.” Pew Research Center, 6 Sept. 2017, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/06/5-facts-about-millennial-
households/.
Jonathan Vespa, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975-2016”. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017. https://www.census.gov/library/
12

publications/2017/demo/p20-579.html
13
Chakrabarti, Rajashri, Nicole Gorton and Wilbert van der Klaauw, “Diplomas to Doorstops: Education, Student Debt, and Homeownership.” Federal Reserve

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A final contribution to lower shares of
homeownership among millennials is their
perspective on wealth accumulation. Exposed to
the housing bubble of 2005-07 and the following
crash of 2008-09, millennials may be less likely
to consider homeownership a method of wealth
accumulation. Millennials witnessed firsthand the
risk of home ownership, although in a truly unique
economic period. Skepticism of the housing
market and its returns might be a contributing
factor to lower homeownership rates.
However, the housing market is not yet facing
extinction at the hands of millennials. Recent
data show that homeownership rates are steadily
increasing. Homeownership among all households
rose to 64.3 percent in the second quarter of
2018.14 In particular, ownership among households
under the age of 35 rose 1.5 percentage points
since 2016.15 Further, spending on rental housing
is decelerating among millennials. A Wells Fargo
cohort analysis shows that millennials are buying
more homes with homeownership rates 204 times
greater than the same-age cohorts in 2008 and
2010. This could be due in part to an ease in credit
standards over the past few years.
Of further consideration is the average age of
the millennial generation. A majority of millennials
have not reached the age in which home buying
begins to take off. The average age of a millennial
is only 28 compared with the median age of 32
for first time buyers.16 Additionally, a limited
supply of single family starter homes has emerged
that presents another complication for first
time homebuyers. Decreased supply has limited
buying opportunities and driven prices up faster
than incomes in many areas, a sharp departure
from conditions that prevailed in the immediate
aftermath of the Great Recession.17 The Baby
Boom and Silent generations contribute partly to
the limitation on the supply side of the market.
These generations have constricted the market
turnover of starter homes, by remaining in the
same place as they age with homeownership rates
of nearly 80 percent.
Household Formation and Fertility
With housing costs and student debt rising,
millennials are turning to cohabitation and multi-
generational households. The reduced rate of
new household formation in turn puts downward
pressure on the demand for housing, as well as all
the furnishing, fixtures and other things that go
along with the purchase of a home.
Downward trends in marriage rates among
younger adults has produced higher rates of
cohabitation with non-spousal partners. The
percentage of adults participating in cohabitation
has risen from less than 1 percent to 12 percent in
the last 30 years. Additionally, more young adults
are living with their parents than ever before. The
percentage of young adults living in a parent’s
home has risen from 11 percent to 31 percent.18
In 1975, 57 percent of adults aged 18-35 lived in
a single household with their spouse. As of 2016,
only 27 percent of adults aged 18-35 live alone
with their spouse.
Additionally, this trend is supported by
later family formation through reduced fertility
rates and waiting longer to have children. As
mentioned earlier, the average age of first time
motherhood is increasing. Additionally, the

Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics (blog), April 3, 2017, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/04/diplomas-to-doorsteps-education-student-
debt-and-homeownership.html
14
U.S. Census Bureau, “QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL VACANCIES AND HOMEOWNERSHIP, SECOND QUARTER 2018”. 26 July, 2018. https://www.census.gov/
housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
15
Sarah House, “Are Millennials Moving out and Settling Down?” Wells Fargo, 2017. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/millenials-moving-
out-20171205_5122017.pdf
16
2017 National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 11 May 2018, https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/quick-real-estate-statistics
17
Sarah House, “Are Millennials Moving out and Settling Down?” Wells Fargo, 2017. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/millenials-moving-
out-20171205_5122017.pdf
18
Jonathan Vespa, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975-2016”. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017. https://www.census.gov/library/
publications/2017/demo/p20-579.html

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

More young adults are living with parents
Figure 3.17: More Young Adults Are Living With Parents

Living arrangements among adults aged 18-34

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1975 2016

Spouse Other

Parents' Home Alone

Unmarried Partner
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - 1975 and 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

Centers for Disease Control reports that the total
fertility rate fell 12 percent from 2007 to 2013.19
This observed later first-time motherhood for
millennial women is partly due to other social/
cultural trends, such as increased education levels
and workforce participation. Greater percentages
of women earning college degrees was a trend
among Gen Xers that persists through the
millennial generation. Women aged 21 to 36 are
now 7 percentage points more likely to have
finished at least a bachelor’s degree than their male
counterparts.20
Furthermore, women’s participation in the
labor force has increased steadily over the last 50
years. In 1965, 58 percent of young women were
not participating in the labor force and only 40
percent were employed. In 2017, only 26 percent
of young millennial women are not participating in
Hamilton and Kirmeyer. Division of Vital Statistics. “Trends and Variations in Reproduction and Intrinsic Rates: United States, 1990–2014.” National Vital Statistics
19
the labor force and 71 percent are employed. This
increased labor force participation rate represents a
social trend toward an early focus on career, rather
than family formation.
Millennial women may be waiting to have
children until later in their career to delay
confrontation with work/family life balance and
acquire the necessary wealth to cover the cost
of having children. Recent analysis by the Pew
Research Center shows that overall, women devote
fewer hours to paid work with each additional
child they have. This, combined with rising
childcare costs, are likely inhibitors to young child
bearers. The average cost of birthing a child in
the United States has been increasing in recent
years. In a recent report by Truven, healthcare
providers reported a 49 percent increase in the
price of vaginal births and 41 percent increase for

Reports. Volume 66, Number 2. Feb 22, 2017, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr_year.htm

20
Fry, Richard. “5 Facts about Millennial Households.” Pew Research Center, 6 Sept. 2017, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/06/5-facts-about-millennial-
households/.

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

Americans are Trending away from Large Families

Figure 3.18: Americans Are Trending Away from Large Families

% of mothers ages 40-44 with

45
41% 40%
40

35
30

24% 25%
25 23%
21%
20
15%
15
11%
10

5
0
One Child Two Children Three Children Four Children

1975 2016
Note: Percentages reflect mothers with at least 1 child.
Source: PEW Research Center analysis of BLS Current Population Survey June Supplements.

Cesarean sections from 2004 to 2010.21 Currently, women having four or more children has fallen
the national average cost of birthing a child in from 40 percent to 15 percent.24 Meanwhile, the
the United States is $12,290.22 In addition, costs percentage of women having one or two children
for having children persist past birth through age has risen.25 Additionally, childlessness increased
18. In 2015, the U.S. Department of Agriculture from 10 to 15 percent from 1976 to 2014.26
reported the average cost of raising a child has Therefore, the distribution of family size for
risen to $233,610, a 16 percent increase since millennials is more concentrated around the mean
1960.23 This may also be influencing changes family relative to previous generations.
composition and size. However, this trend toward smaller families is
While the average number of children per being partially offset by highly-educated mothers.
household has held steady at two over the last Women with postgraduate degrees are trending
20 years, the right tail of the distribution is toward larger family sizes. Among the subset of
shrinking. From 1976 to 2016, the percentage of women, childlessness has fallen 8 percentage points
21
This the cost to commercial insurers. Truven Health Analytics Marketscan Study, “The Cost of Having a Baby in the United States,” Truven Health Analytics, Jan.
2013, http://transform.childbirthconnection.org/reports/cost/
22
This number is for vaginal delivery. The national average charge for cesarean section is $16,907. Estimates are from 2017 FAIR Health. Gantz, Sarah. “A Bundle of
Joy, a Pile of Bills: Childbirth Can Cost Thousands in out-of-Pocket Expenses.” The Philadelphia Inquirer, Daily News and Philly.com, 13 June 2018, http://www2.philly.
com/philly/health/health-costs/health-care-costs-child-birth-20180613.html
23
Current estimates are not precisely comparable to previous estimates because of methodology changes. Cost estimates are for a 4-person, middle-income
household in real terms (inflation adjusted). U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Expenditures on Children by Families, 2015” Miscellaneous Report No. 1528-2015, Jan
2017, https://www.cnpp.usda.gov/sites/default/files/crc2015.pdf
24
Percentage refers to mothers with at least one child.
25
This is sampled from mothers aged 40-44. Data from Current Population Survey. Kristen Bialik, Pew Research Center, “Middle children have become rarer, but a
growing share of Americans now say three or more kids are ‘ideal’”. 9 Aug. 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/09/middle-children-have-become-
rarer-but-a-growing-share-of-americans-now-say-three-or-more-kids-are-ideal/
26
Gretchen Livingston, Pew Research Center, “Childlessness Falls, Family Size Grows Among Highly Educated Women.” 2015, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-
tank/2018/08/09/middle-children-have-become-rarer-but-a-growing-share-of-americans-now-say-three-or-more-kids-are-ideal/

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

Millennials are the Largest Generation in the Labor Force

Figure 3.19: Millennials Are the Largest Generation in the Labor Force

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd
2015 2016 2017 2018

“Gen Z” “Millenials” “Gen X” “Baby Boomers”

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - 2018 Current Population Survey.

from 1994 to 2014. According to the Pew Research in 1997. However, the millennial population is
Center, the decline in childlessness is even more only predicted to grow to 75 million people total.
dramatic among women with an M.D. or Ph.D. In Therefore, it would take a labor force participation
1994, 35 percent of these women were childless rate of 88 percent for the millennial generation to
while only 20 percent were childless in 2014. surpass the peak size of the Baby Boomers.28
Corresponding to this decrease in childlessness This seems unlikely for two reasons. First,
is an increase in the number of children. The the nation’s labor force participation peaked
percentage of highly-educated women reporting at 67 percent in 2000 as women’s labor force
one child has fallen by 1 percentage point while the participation rate began to decline; male labor
percentage of women with two and three or more force participation rates have been in decline
children has increased by 4 and 6 percentage points since the late 1940s. Second, millennials are
respectively.27 trending toward lower labor force participation
rates than previous generations. 2014 marked
Labor Market Engagement the 6th consecutive year of record-breaking low
employment rates for men aged 25-34. However,
While millennials make up the largest employment rates have dropped to new levels for
percentage of the labor force, it is unlikely that this all ages except the oldest generations. A long-term
generation will reach workforce levels observed decline in the demand for high-skilled workers is
in previous generations. The Baby Boomers one explanation for this trend.29
reached their peak labor force size of 66 million Unfortunately, if the demand for high
27
Gretchen Livingston, Pew Research Center, “Childlessness Falls, Family Size Grows Among Highly Educated Women.” 2015, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-
tank/2018/08/09/middle-children-have-become-rarer-but-a-growing-share-of-americans-now-say-three-or-more-kids-are-ideal/
Fry, Richard. “Millennials are the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.” Pew Research Center, 11 April 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/11/
28

millennials-largest-generation-us-labor-force/
Beaudry, Paul, David A. Green, and Benjamin M. Sand. “The great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks.” Journal of Labor Economics 34.S1 (2016):
29

S199-S247. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/682347

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

millennials are the most educated generation

Figure 3.20: Millennials Are the Most Educated Generation

% with at least some college education

Millennial (born 1981 to 2000)

Generation X (born 1965 to 1980)

Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964)

Silent (born 1929 to 1945)

GI (born 1928 and earlier)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey.

skilled workers is falling, millennials face even
harsher labor market conditions. As the most
educated generation, 65 percent of millennials
have acquired some level of college education.30
However, as more young workers receive degrees,
the competition for high-skilled jobs increases
in a labor market that continues to carry the
legacy of the Great Recession. This could be
contributing to the increasing underemployment
of younger workers.
Underemployment for college educated
workers has held constant over the last 20 years
at 33 percent. It is higher among recent graduates
relative to all graduates and it is taking longer
for the underemployment rate to fall toward the
average (33 percent) for the most recent cohort
of graduates. Further, the share of recent college
graduates in low-wage jobs rose from 15 percent
in 1990 to 20 percent in 2009.31 According to the
U.S. Census Bureau, the share of men aged 25-34
that had incomes of less than $30,000 a year has
risen from 25 percent in 1975 to 41 percent in
2016.32
Debt, Savings/Wealth, and Retirement
Coinciding with the record breaking number
of millennials achieving some level of college
education is increased average student loan debt.
College education is now the second-largest
expense an individual is likely to make in a lifetime,
right behind purchasing a home.33 College tuition
and fees increased by 63 percent from 2006-
2016, correlating with an increase in the average
outstanding student loan balance of 62 percent
over the last 10 years.34
Average student loan levels for millennials
have risen to $14,700 in 2016 compared with Gen

30
Jonathan Vespa, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975-2016”. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017. https://www.census.gov/library/
publications/2017/demo/p20-579.html
31
Jaison Abel, Richard Deitz, and Yaqin Su. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?” Current Issues in Economics
and Finance. 2014. Vol. 20, N. 1. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci20-1.html
32
Jonathan Vespa, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975-2016”. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017. https://www.census.gov/library/
publications/2017/demo/p20-579.html
33
Dickler, Jessica. “Student Loan Balances Jump Nearly 150 Percent in a Decade.” CNBC, 29 August 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/29/student-loan-balances-
jump-nearly-150-percent-in-a-decade.html
34
Kerry Rivera, “The State of Student Loan Debt in 2017.” Experian, 23 April 2017, http://www.experian.com/blogs/insights/2017/08/state-of-student-loan-debt/

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

Average student loan debt soars for millennials

Figure 3.21: Average Student Loan Debt Soars for Millennials

$16,000

$14,000

$12,000

$10,000

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$0
Generation X in 2001 Millennials in 2016

Source: St. Louis Fed - Survey of Consumer Finances.

X’s $4,200 in 2001.35 Additionally, the average assets relative to Gen X’s average of $198,000.38
number of loans per millennial has risen to 4.4. However, millennials in 2016 were saving more
Furthermore, the percentage of each generation’s for retirement than Gen X in 2001. The average
population taking out student loans has been retirement account balance in 2016 is $15,500
increasing. The percentage of 18-24 year- compared with Gen X’s balance of $13,600.
old seniors with student loans has risen from In addition, lower credit card debt and lower
50.5 percent in 1989 to 67.7 percent in 2011.36 mortgage debt slightly offset the growing student
As younger generations take out larger loans debt burden of millennials, though their overall
more frequently, we can expect the size of this debt burden is larger.
generation’s student debt burden to grow. As mentioned earlier, this larger debt burden
Connected to large increases in student debt and lower asset accumulation can be attributed
burden is the overall wealth and financial health to social and education trends for this younger
of the millennial generation. According to a generation. Staying in school longer means more
recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. debt accumulation which reduces the ability
Louis, millennials’ average net worth was $90,000 to purchase financial assets (including homes).
in 2016, much lower than the net worth of However, investments in education could lead
$130,000 for Generation X households in 2001. to higher incomes overall. While millennials may
This stems from both a reduction in financial experience lower net worth earlier in their life,
and nonfinancial assets.37 Comparing assets, higher education and income growth will increase
millennials only held an average of $162,000 in their net worth as they age.
35
YiLi Chien, Paul Morris, St. Louis Fed. “Accounting for Age: The Financial Health of Millennials.” Regional Economist. Second Quarter. 2018. https://www.stlouisfed.
org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2018/accounting-age-financial-health-millennials
36
National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, Table 331.95, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_331.95.asp
37
YiLi Chien, Paul Morris, St. Louis Fed. “Accounting for Age: The Financial Health of Millennials.” Regional Economist. Second Quarter. 2018. https://www.stlouisfed.
org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2018/accounting-age-financial-health-millennials
38
All comparisons of Generation X refer to the average adult aged 20-35 in 2001.

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More millennials are taking out student loans

Figure 3.22: More Millennials Are Taking Out Student Loans

% of 18-24 year-old college seniors with student loans

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1989-1990 1999-2000 2011-2012
Source: National Center for Education Statistics.

Transportation and Mobility
Because of housing choices and rising tastes
for urban living, millennials are exhibiting a
fundamental change in mobility patterns. Currently
millennials are flocking to metropolitan areas
in the South and West in places such as Seattle,
Denver, Colorado Springs, Austin, San Antonio,
and Orlando. These cities experienced the fastest
growth rates in millennials ranging from 10.8-14.7
percent. Geographic areas with the slowest growth
in millennials include cities in the Midwest such as
Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Dayton, and Toledo.
Of these metropolitan areas with the slowest
growth, only Birmingham, Alabama, experienced
negative growth of -0.6 percent.39
In light of all of the other changes in behavior
exhibited by millennials, especially homeownership,
it is not surprising that transportation choices have
changed as well. While ride-sharing services such
as Lyft and Uber have risen in popularity over the
years, millennials’ participation in the automotive
market has also been increasing. Millennial
consumers accounted for almost 24 percent of
vehicles purchased in 2015 and their participation
in the automobile market seems to be growing.
According to J.D. Power, millennials’ share of new-
vehicle sales rose 9 percentage points since 2011.40
Additionally, the percentage of millennials who opt
to lease and then purchase the vehicle is up to 32
percent from 21 percent in 2011.41
Yet, a recent report by TransUnion revealed
millennials still have 5 percent fewer auto loans or
leases overall compared with Gen Xers when they
were 21 to 34 years old. However, the gap in auto
financing does narrow to 3 percent by age 34. Even
so, millennials are opening auto loans and leases
at a rate 2 to 3 percent higher than that of Gen X,
further supporting observations that millennial car
buying and leasing are on the rise.42

39
Growth rates are measured by population changes from 2010-2015.
40
This was also met by a decline in Baby Boomer participation of 6 percentage points.
41
Data is from J.D. Power and Associates’ Power Information Network. Diana Kurylko, Automotive News, “The Millennials are Coming,” Feb. 27, 2017, http://www.
autonews.com/article/20170227/RETAIL/302279963/the-millennials-are-coming
TransUnion. “Generation Revealed: Decoding millennial financial health.” 2017. https://www.transunion.com/articles/want-to-attract-and-engage-todays-millennial-
42

consumer-get-personal

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3.7. MILLENNIALS AND MARKETS, CONTINUED

Consumption Patterns Follow. Further, 76 percent of millennials reported

As tastes, preferences and choices made by
millennials change relative to previous generations,
repercussions are being felt across the economy.
Overall, millennials are less materialistic than previous
generations. They are more interested in experiences
than physical assets. As such, the fastest growing
expenditure category for millennials is food away
from home. Millennials prefer dining out to dining
in, focused on the dining experience. Another rapidly
growing expenditure category is entertainment, again
demonstrating a preference toward services rather
than goods.43 Unsurprisingly, millennial expenditures
on apparel are contracting, further indicating waning
preferences for physical goods.
However, of the physical products purchased,
millennials indicate preferences toward sustainably
produced/sourced products. For example, a
2015 Nielson survey indicated that 73 percent of
millennials surveyed are willing to spend more on
a sustainable brand product versus 66 percent of
all consumers.44 This echoes a recent report by The
Shelton Group indicating 70 percent of millennials
surveyed said their purchasing decisions are
impacted by a company’s environmental practices.45
Both of these reports indicate a trend toward a
generation of environmentally conscious consumers.
For example, the declining fertility rates, smaller
families, and environmentally conscious preferences
of millennials have seriously impacted the disposable
diaper industry. The diaper business has declined at
a rate of 0.3 percent per year since 2012.46
Additionally, millennials are more likely to
purchase goods online relative to brick and mortar
stores than previous generations. Only 53 percent of
millennials surveyed made a majority of purchases
offline according to a recent report by Coupon
browsing the Internet before making a purchase
either on or offline.47 Such stiff competition with
online-only retailers has led to the downsizing and/
or dissolution of many department stores.
Related to millennials consumption patterns
mentioned earlier, some key points to remember:
• Housing rental expenditures are decelerating
as more millennials reach the average age of first-
time homebuyers.48
• Home buying has been derailed by large
amounts of student debt, later marriages, and later
family formation.
• Millennials are having fewer children, later in
life than previous generations.
• This trend is partially offset by highly educated
women having more children than previous
generations.
• Millennials are the largest generation in the
workforce.
• Recent millennial college graduates are more
likely to be underemployed.
• Millennials have more student loan debt than
previous generations.
• Average student loan levels for millennials
have risen to $14,700 in 2016 compared with Gen
X’s $4,200 in 2001.
• The percentage of the millennial population
taking out loans is higher than previous generations.
• While millennial car buying stalled during the
Great Recession, millennial consumers accounted
for almost 24 percent of vehicles purchased in 2015
and their participation seems to be growing.
• Overall, millennials are less materialistic than
previous generations. They are more interested in
experiences than physical assets.
• Environmental preferences have a large impact
on the purchasing preferences of millennials.

43
Michael A. Brown, “Non-Material Millennials”. Wells Fargo. Special Commentary. 27 October 2016. Wells Fargo. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/
intergenerational-spending20161027.pdf
44
Landrum, Sarah. Forbes. “Millennials Driving Brands To Practice Socially Responsible Marketing.” Nielson, Global Corporate Sustainability Report. 2015.
45
1000 millennials were surveyed. Shelton Group. “Millennial Pulse: 2017 Special Report.” 2017. https://sheltongrp.com/insights/millennial-pulse/
46
Lauren Hirsch. CNBC. “The U.S. is in a baby bust, so diaper makers need a new plan.” 23 Jan 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-us-is-in-a-baby-bust-so-
diaper-makers-need-a-new-plan.html
47
Coupon Follow. “The Millennial Shopping Report.” Summer 2017. https://couponfollow.com/research/summer17
48
Michael A. Brown, “Non-Material Millennials”. Wells Fargo. Special Commentary. 27 October 2016. Wells Fargo. https://externalcontent.blob.core.windows.net/pdfs/
intergenerational-spending20161027.pdf

84 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


CHAPTER 4: FEDERAL TAX REFORM AND TENNESSEE
IN THIS CHAPTER —
4.1. INTRODUCTION
4.2. OVERVIEW OF THE 2017 TAX
CUTS AND JOBS ACT
4.3. INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX
EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY
AND BEHAVIOR
4.1. INTRODUCTION
Chapter 4 includes two components, the first
an examination of a number of issues regarding
how the Federal tax reform enacted last December
affects the economy and Tennessee and the second
an exploration of how tariffs and brewing trade
wars are affecting the economy. The first section
on Federal taxes summarizes the major provisions
in the reform. The Tax Act entails many provi-
sions, and even a summary includes many technical
points. The second section discusses how work
and savings are affected by the federal changes and
the third section considers how the tax changes
may alter business investment decisions. Many of
the basic elements of how the reforms affect the
economy can be understood without a thorough
knowledge of the overall tax cuts and the changes
included in the 2017 legislation.
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
4.4. CORPORATE INCOME TAX
EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY
AND BEHAVIOR
4.5 TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL
TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE
ECONOMY
4.5. REFERENCES
The second major component of the chapter
looks at the impacts of tariffs on the state economy.
Tennessee is thoroughly integrated and enmeshed
in the global economy. International trade and
finance play a larger role here than in other similar-
ly-sized states. Economists and Tennessee residents
generally support free trade, but in 2019 there is
considerable uncertainty about the direction of
trade policy. 2018 saw the U.S. and its global trading
partners engaged in a trade war that hit automo-
biles, whiskey and soybeans, some of Tennessee’s
top exports. These trade barriers raise prices for
Tennesseans and put companies with international
supply chains at risk. Forecasters suggest that 2019
will see the new trade barriers remain in place and
new barriers added, but forecasting the future of
trade policy is difficult in this political climate.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 85
CHAPTER 4 | Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee
4.2. OVERVIEW OF THE 2017 TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT
Corporate Tax Provisions Summary
On December 22, 2017, Congress approved
and President Trump signed into law sweeping tax
reform legislation, referred to as the Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act (referred to as TCJA and the “Act” below).
Many of the individual tax provisions in the Act are
temporary, as opposed to the business provisions
that are generally permanent. The Act replaces the
prior-law graduated corporate rate structure with a
flat 21 percent rate and fully repeals the alternative
minimum tax (AMT). It also permits immediate
expensing for business assets placed in service be-
fore 2022. To offset these benefits, the Act imposes
new limits on business interest, repeals the Section
199 manufacturing deduction, and disallows like-
kind exchanges other than for real property. The
Act moves the U.S. from a worldwide tax system to
a participation exemption system by giving corpo-
rations that own at least 10 percent of the stock
in the foreign corporation a 100 percent dividend
received deduction. To transition to the new system,
the Act imposes a one-time deemed repatriation tax
on unremitted earnings and profits. Cash and cash
equivalents are taxed at an effective rate of 15.5 per-
cent, and non-liquid assets are taxed at an effective
rate of 8 percent. The Act also established new pro-
visions to prevent federal base erosion and lessens
the incentive to move intangible assets offshore.
Under the Excise Tax, Tennessee begins with
a federal definition for the tax base but taxes only
income apportioned to the state. Corporations
engage in extensive tax planning efforts that impact
how much and where income is taxed by states.
The combination of tax planning and changes in
apportionment percentages make predicting the
final impact on Tennessee’s corporate tax base very
difficult to estimate. We provide more detail for
some of the corporate and international provisions
below, but the state of Tennessee will not tax the
one-time deemed repatriation mentioned above.
Individual Tax Provisions Summary
The Act maintains seven individual income
tax brackets, with a top bracket of 37 percent. It
86 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
repeals personal exemptions, nearly doubles the
standard deduction, places limits on itemized de-
ductions, and expands the child tax credit. The Act
also limits deductions for home mortgage interest
and state and local taxes. These provisions expire
after 2025. Finally, for non-corporate taxpayers, the
Act allows a deduction of 20 percent of the taxpay-
er’s qualified business income from a partnership, S
corporation or sole proprietorships. The purpose
of this deduction is to bring the effective tax rates
on these types of businesses more in line with the
reduced rates for corporations. We provide more
detail for these provisions below.
Corporate and General Business Provisions
Limitation on Net Business Interest: Un-
der prior law, Section 163(j) limited the ability to
deduct interest of certain corporations with debt
to equity ratios exceeding 1.5 to 1. Expanding the
old limitation, the new law limits business interest
to business interest income plus 30 percent of the
taxpayer’s adjusted taxable income. Any amount
disallowed because of the above limitation carries
over indefinitely. The limitation applies at the
consolidated return level, and special rules apply
to partnerships. Taxpayers below the $25 million
gross receipts threshold for small businesses are
exempt from this limitation. Tennessee decouples
from this provision, effective for tax years begin-
ning after January 1, 2020.
Bonus Depreciation increased to 100
percent: The Act allows 100 percent expensing
(previously 50 percent) for qualified property that
was acquired and placed in service after September
27, 2017 (through 2022). The Act also modifies
the definition of property that qualifies for bonus
depreciation. Most notably, prior to TCJA, proper-
ty had to be brand new to qualify. TCJA modifies
this requirement by allowing used property to also
qualify for bonus depreciation. Tennessee already
decoupled from bonus depreciation and will contin-
ue to do so with the increased amount.
Section 179 Immediate Expensing Amount:
The Act increases the amount that can be immedi-

4.2. OVERVIEW OF THE 2017 TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT, CONTINUED
ately expensed under Sec. 179 from $520,000 to $1
million per year. The Act also increases the start
of the phase-out for the immediate expensing from
$2.07 million in asset purchases to $2.5 million,
adjusted for inflation each year. The Act allows
tangible personal property used in some residential
rental property to be included in the definition of
qualifying property for Sec. 179. This change allows
items like furniture and appliances used in furnished
apartment buildings or dormitories to be imme-
diately expensed. Unlike the bonus depreciation
provisions, Tennessee conforms to the expensing
provision in Section 179.
NOL Deductions: Prior to the TCJA law, et
operating losses could generally be carried back 2
years and forward 20 years. The Act limits a NOL
deduction to 80 percent of the taxable income for
the year. Under TCJA taxpayers are no longer able
to carry NOLs back but may carry them forward
indefinitely. The revised NOL rules apply to NOLs
arising in tax years ending after December 31, 2017.
NOLs arising before the effective date still will
be subject to the two-year carryback and 20-year
carryover rules. Tennessee allows a state specific net
operating loss with a 15-year carryforward.
International Provisions
IP: Intangible property now includes workforce
in place, goodwill (foreign and domestic) and going
concern value. This broadened definition of IP
should impact both the taxable income stream and
transfer pricing considerations.
GILTI and FDII Income: U.S. multinationals
must include in gross income their pro rata share
of foreign source passive and mobile income. This
income can be either global intangible low-taxed
income (GILTI) or foreign derived intangible income
(FDII). The GILTI and FDII provisions work
together to provide an overall deductible amount to
U.S. taxpayers selling outside the U.S. by taking into
account high return non-US income (and taxed in
a foreign country at less than a 13.125 percent rate)
and high return U.S. income. Once the FDII and
GILTI amounts are determined, a corporate taxpayer
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
may calculate a deduction equal to 37.5 percent of
FDII and 50 percent of GILTI. The tax calculation
is based on a complex formula, resulting in a 10.5
percent tax on GILTI and a 13.125 percent tax on
FDII. A number of states have decoupled from the
GILTI provisions.
BEAT: The Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax
(BEAT) is a minimum tax on certain deductible
payments, such as royalties and management fees
paid to affiliates. The tax is equal to the base erosion
minimum amount for the tax year in question. This
amount is equal to the excess of 10 percent of the
taxpayer’s modified taxable income over its regular
tax liability, adjusted for a portion of tax credits.
Modified taxable income is regular taxable income
calculated without regard to any deduction for a
base erosion payment. This minimum tax applies
to corporations with average annual gross receipts
exceeding $500 million.
Noncorporate Provisions
20 percent deduction for Qualified Business
Income: In general, the deduction applies to sole
proprietorships and interests in pass through entities
held by individuals and is limited to the lesser of:
(1) the combined qualified business income of the
taxpayer or (2) 20 percent of the excess of taxable
income over any net capital gain. Qualified business
income includes income, gain, deduction, and loss
for the trade or business but excludes capital gains
and losses, dividends, and interest income. It also
excludes employee compensation and guaranteed
payments that the taxpayer receives from the entity.
Taxpayers in service-related businesses, such as law,
accounting, healthcare and consulting, are only eligi-
ble for the deduction if their taxable income is less
than a threshold amount (e.g., $315,000 for joint fil-
ers). For taxpayers with income above the threshold,
an additional limitation based on W-2 wages applies.
Limitation on Excess Business Losses: The
Act imposes a limit on excess business losses for
non-corporate taxpayers. An excess business loss
is the excess of aggregate deductions for the year
attributable to trades and businesses over the sum of
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 87
CHAPTER 4 | Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee
4.3. INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY AND BEHAVIOR
aggregate gross income or gain attributable to such
trades or business, plus $250,000 ($500,000 for mar-
ried filing jointly). Any disallowed excess loss carries
over as a net operating loss.
Individual Provisions
Increase in Standard Deduction: The Act
substantially increases the basic standard deduction
for individual taxpayers, nearly doubling the amounts.
For 2018, the standard deduction amounts will be:
• $24,000 for married filing joint and surviving and should therefore lead individuals to seek more
spouse,
• $18,000 for head of household,
• $12,000 for single and married filing separate.
Limitation on Deduction for State and
Local Taxes: For tax years 2018 through 2025, the
new tax law limits the itemized deduction for state
and local real property taxes, state and local personal
property taxes, and state and local income taxes (or
state and local sales tax, if elected instead of income
taxes) to a total amount of $10,000 ($5,000 for mar-
ried filing separate).
Mortgage Interest Limited and Home
Equity Loan Interest Suspended: For tax years
2018 through 2025, the amount of indebtedness on
the acquisition of a residence for which interest can
be deducted is limited to $750,000. However, if the
taxpayer incurred the indebtedness before December
15, 2017, the limitation remains at $1 million (the
pre-TCJA amount). In addition to the reduced limit
on acquisition indebtedness, the Act also eliminates
the deduction for home equity loan interest for tax
years from 2018 through 2025.
While Tennessee does not impose a tax on in-
dividual income, the individual income tax compo-
nents of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2018 could
have important impacts on Tennessee’s economy.
Specifically, the combination of lower marginal
tax rates, higher standard deductions, and a host
of changes in non-corporate business tax policy
should enhance economic growth in Tennessee.
Researchers at the Tax Policy Center (Sammartino,
Stallworth, and Weiner, 2018) estimate that 66.4
88 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
percent of Tennessee taxpayers will enjoy a tax cut
averaging $2,030, while another 4.8 percent will face
a tax increase averaging $1,090 (the remaining 28.8
percent will see no net change in income taxes).
Considering all Tennessee taxpayers together, the
average change in federal individual income taxes
will be a cut of $1,310, or about 9.1 percent of their
total tax bill.
On the surface, reductions in marginal tax rates
should encourage economic activity in the form
of increased labor supply. The lower marginal tax
rate increases the reward to additional work effort
or higher-paying work opportunities. On a similar
note, we might expect to see an increase in personal
savings since the individual income tax also applies
to interest earnings and other forms of capital
income, and lower marginal tax rates increase the
reward to savings. And while the lower tax rates
and more attractive depreciation rules might lead to
an increase in business investment, the reduced ben-
efits from itemizing mortgage interest and property
tax deductions might lead some taxpayers to reduce
investment in owner-occupied housing.
Despite these theoretical possibilities, the
empirical literature has not generally found large ef-
fects of tax rates on individual behavior. This is es-
pecially true for labor supply, except in the case of
secondary earners (e.g. spouses). Primary earners do
not always have the flexibility or desire to increase
work or work effort and thus have not tradition-
ally responded to lower tax rates by earning more
income. It remains to be seen, however, whether
the reductions in business taxation (both corporate
and non-corporate) translate into earnings gains for
workers. This would certainly show up as increased
labor earnings on individual tax returns, but we do
not yet have sufficient data to see this type of im-
pact. Estimated impacts on savings activity appear
to be more in terms of where and how we save,
and less in terms of how much we save. When it
comes to housing, such things as home ownership
rates and housing investment have proven to be
relatively stable over time in the face of changes in
federal tax rates.
Simultaneous changes in the standard deduc-
tion and other tax rules, which reduce the ben-

4.3. INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY AND BEHAVIOR,
CONTINUED
efits from itemizing deductions, might diminish
the overall effects of individual marginal tax rate
reductions on behavior. This is much less of a
concern in Tennessee, however, where itemization
rates are much lower due primarily to the absence
of a state-level individual income tax. We expect
a slightly larger impact on behavior in Tennessee
since most taxpayers were already using the stan-
dard deduction. Indeed, the Tax Policy Center’s
(2018) estimates show an average tax cut in Tennes-
see that is similar to nationwide estimates.
To be sure, even if such things as labor sup-
ply and savings do not increase in the face of the
TCJA’s reduction in federal marginal income tax
rates, the likely behavioral responses could still have
important implications for Tennessee’s economy.
Specifically, to the extent that these provisions
lead to increased individual after-tax income and
consumption, which would fuel additional econom-
ic activity, they could also lead to stronger sales tax
collections. While this could provide important
state and local tax revenue that could offset some
of the longer-term declines in sales taxable activity,
a full discussion of these possibilities is beyond the
scope of this chapter.
Perhaps the most significant state-level impact
of the individual income tax components of the
TCJA will arise from its changes to provisions for
4.4. CORPORATE INCOME TAX EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY AND BEHAVIOR
The TCJA introduced a simplification and reduc-
tion of the corporate tax rate schedule. Prior to 2018,
like individual income, corporate income was taxed
according to a tiered schedule. The tax rate was 15
percent on modest (below $50,000 per annum) earn-
ings but quickly rose, with earnings above $335,000
facing rates above 34 percent. All income above
$18.33 million faced a headline rate of 35 percent.
This system is now simplified. From 1 January
2018, companies face a flat corporate tax rate of
21 percent. For all but the smallest firms, this will
lower tax liabilities. It represents a significant tax cut
1
To be sure, these small businesses will also lose the ability to deduct net interest expenses in excess of 30 percent of business income, limits on net operating loss
deductions, elimination of the Section 199 domestic production deduction, and other limitations that might increase taxes.
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
businesses that pay their taxes through the indi-
vidual income tax. These “pass-through” entities
include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and other
legal forms such as limited liability partnerships
and small business corporations that do not pay
tax through the corporate income tax structure.
Small businesses will benefit from lower marginal
tax rates, a new 20-percent deduction for qualified
business income, and liberalized depreciation rules
such as the doubling of bonus depreciation and
Section 179 expensing limits. The entire package
almost certainly represents a net tax reduction for
these types of smaller businesses.1
Bruce, Gurley-Calvez, and Murray (2015) and
Gale and Samwick (2014) provide useful summaries
of the literature that estimate the likely macroeco-
nomic impacts of these types of tax policy changes.
Bruce, Gurley-Calvez, and Murray (2015) go a step
further to apply the results from the literature to a
tax reform package that closely resembles that in
the TCJA. They estimate that the individual tax rate
changes would add about 0.073 percent to annual
GDP growth, 0.048 percent to annual investment
growth, and about 0.051 percent to annual employ-
ment growth (representing approximately 76,000
jobs). While these are national impact estimates,
there is no reason to expect that Tennessee would
not see similar effects.
as most corporate revenue comes from a handful
of large multinationals that previously faced the 35
percent marginal rate.
The reduction in the headline rate was not the
only component that changes corporate incentives.
Pre-2018, the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
ensured large companies paid rates of at least 20
percent on corporate income. TCJA repealed the
AMT provisions. The repeal of the AMT could ben-
efit firms with large deductions, and the provisions
which permit refundable AMT carryovers represent a
further tax cut for affected corporations.
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 89
CHAPTER 4 | Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee
4.4. CORPORATE INCOME TAX EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY AND
BEHAVIOR, CONTINUED
One of the principal changes of the TCJA was
the treatment of foreign income earned by U.S.
corporations. Under the worldwide tax system in
force until 2018, foreign earnings were subject to
U.S. income taxes (less foreign tax liabilities), but
only upon repatriation of those earnings. While
shifting from a worldwide to a territorial tax system
(the new provisions work similarly to a territorial
tax system), in the short-term TCJA imposes a
one-time mandatory deemed repatriation tax on
previously untaxed foreign earnings. TCJA taxes
foreign earnings at 15.5 percent if held in cash, and
at 8 percent if held in non-cash assets. This, again,
represents a significant decline in liability relative to
the headline 35 percent rate.
A more subtle tax cut does not affect headline
corporate rates, but rather changes the way firms can
deduct their investments. Specifically, “Bonus Depre-
ciation”, first enacted in the aftermath of 9/11 as a
stimulus package, allows firms to deduct an addition-
al bonus percentage of investment costs in the first
year of the investment. Under the existing tax law in
2017, the bonus depreciation allowance permitted a
50 percent first-year bonus. The TCJA significantly
expanded bonus depreciation: for the next five years,
the first-year bonus depreciation increases to 100 per-
cent. This lowers the present-value costs of investing.
Economic theory provides ample reason to
believe that high corporate taxes decrease investment
and curtails real activity. Scores of academic studies
have confirmed these theories. For example, a 2008
study by University of Michigan economists (Ohrn
2018) in the American Economic Review found
investment was highly responsive to time-limited tax
cuts like the initial Bonus Depreciation allowances
passed in 2002 and 2003. More recent evidence by
Ohrn supports this result, finding a one percentage
point reduction in tax rates is estimated to increase
investment by 4.7 percent of installed capital.
Equivalently, many of the reductions enacted by
TCJA are likely to make investments more worth-
while than they previously were. Higher investment
levels will increase production, ultimately having
positive effects on employment and wages. Some
evidence of these real effects can be seen already.
90 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Consistent with the predictions of the effects of ex-
panding Bonus Depreciation allowances, Investment
in Equipment rose 7.1 percent in 2018, slightly higher
than the 6.1 percent in 2017, and the highest growth
rate since 2012. Transportation investment was up
6.5 percent in 2018 and is forecast to grow 9 percent
in 2019, far higher than the 3.7 percent contraction in
2017. Future gains from tax cuts will be muted by the
global economy.
In addition to increased investment, it is likely
that some fraction of increased profitability will
be passed down to workers through higher wages.
Research on Germany by Fuest (Fuest et al., 2018)
suggests that about one-half of the burden of
higher corporate taxes is passed onto workers. The
immediate response of wages was encouraging.
Productivity grew at 1.3 percent in 2018, but wages
grew by 3 percent, suggesting some of the corpo-
rate tax cut may have boosted wages for workers.
Wages and salaries are forecast to grow by 3.3, 3.5,
and 3.4 percent in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively,
substantially higher than the 1.4, 1.2, and 1.3 percent
increases in productivity. Though it is not possible
to isolate tax cuts from other confounding factors
as the cause of this gap, such as the very tight labor
market, the forecasts are at least consistent with
pass-through of business tax cuts to employees.
It is clear that tax policy can alter a firm’s in-
ternal investment and payroll decisions. Taxes also
influence firms’ interactions with their shareholders.
A study by Chetty and Saez (Chetty and Saez, 2005)
found that a 2003 dividend tax cut reversed a two
decade-long continuous decline in the number of
firms issuing dividend payments. It is thus not sur-
prising that the changes in how worldwide income
of U.S. corporations is taxed have resulted in a large
repatriation of foreign earnings.
Figure 4.1 depicts the data on repatriated
dividends relative to income on equity (earnings) of
foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational enterprises.
Pre-2018, we see a consistent trend of foreign earn-
ings of approximately $110 billion per quarter and
repatriations around $38 billion per quarter, about
one-third of that. In the quarter immediately fol-
lowing passage of TCJA, the first quarter of 2018,
 Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4

4.4. CORPORATE INCOME TAX EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY AND

BEHAVIOR, CONTINUED

Figure
Figure 4.1:Dividends
4.1: Dividendsand
& Withdrawals
Withdrawalssurged
Surgedin in
2018 Q1Q1
2018

300

250

200
Billions of Dollars

150

100

50

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dividends and Withdrawals Income on Equity

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

we see a modest increase in foreign earnings. For return value to shareholders rather than using all of
repatriations, however, we see figures soar to $294 the TCJA cuts as opportunities for new investments.
billion. This surge is less pronounced in the sec- Though a boost to the economy, the net
ond quarter, but remains far in excess of historical effect of these provisions will substantially reduce
averages. Though this largely reflects an accounting the amount of tax revenue the Federal govern-
exercise where already-earned profits are shifted be- ment raises from corporate income. The Treasury
tween parent and subsidiaries of U.S. corporations, Department forecasts receipts of $225 billion in
there was a large-scale “coming home” of repatriat- corporate income taxes for the current Fiscal Year,
ed foreign earnings in 2018. a significant decline on the $320 billion raised in
Firms have been using this money, in part, 2017.3 In this sense, it is accurate to consider TCJA
for share buybacks.2 S&P 500 companies’ stock as a fiscal stimulus package to the economy, though
repurchases totaled $379.7 billion in the first half of the prudence of providing fiscal stimulus at a time
2018. This represents a 50 percent increase in the of low unemployment is questionable. The Federal
$253.3 billion in the corresponding period in 2017. government has run a deficit every year since 2002,
Apple alone spent $44.7 billion purchasing back and the CBO estimates annual deficits will exceed
its own shares. Firms are also increasing dividends, $1 trillion by 2020.4 Moreover, deficits will raise
although at a less dramatic rate. In the first half of interest rates, the volume of the dollar and contrib-
2018, firms listed on the S&P 500 issued $220.8 ute to large international trade deficits, all of which
billion in dividends, up $15.9 billion (7.8 percent) will weaken growth. The long-run sustainability of
during the first half of 2017. The 50 percent TCJA will be factored into corporate decision-mak-
increase in buybacks and 7.8 percent increase in div- ing in the future and may lessen the overall impact
idends are an indication that firms are choosing to of the tax act.
2
S&P Dow Jones Indices (2018) S&P 500 Q2 2018 Buybacks Increase 58.7% Year-Over-Year to Record $190.6 Billion. Press release, 24 September 2018.
3
Monthly Treasury Statement: Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government, October 2018 and December 2017.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts1018.pdf and https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts1217.pdf
4 Congressional Budget Office (2018) The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028. Report, 9 April 2018.

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 91

CHAPTER 4 | Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee
4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY
Tennessee is uniquely internationally oriented.
Tennessee has the 18th largest state economy5 and
the 16th largest population,6 but is the 14th largest
exporter and 9th largest importer. Tennessee firms
sell to over one hundred countries and purchase
inputs from more than seventy. There are nearly
a thousand foreign-owned firms in Tennessee
employing 150,000 workers. Behind the scenes
of this employment base is the supply chain
that supports additional jobs across the state.
International trade has a significant impact on
Tennessee’s workers, companies and consumers.
The bipartisan consensus of the last thirty years
has been that free trade is the best policy for the
U.S. That consensus is currently in flux. Tennessee’s
export volume has been essentially flat over the
last five years while imports have been growing at
about 4 percent a year. Trade policy uncertainty is
likely to crimp trade and foreign investment in 2019.
Tennessee companies with international supply
chains may face significant disruption. The evolution
of U.S. trade disputes with most major trading
partners is going to have a big impact on Tennessee
businesses. The outcome of these disputes is difficult
to predict, but industries with complex global supply
chains like the auto industry, are at the greatest risk
until the disputes are resolved.
The Economic Benefits of Free Trade
Economists agree that free trade brings
economic benefits.7 The benefits are driven by
increased competition lowering prices for consumers.
Imports from foreign markets give customers more
choices at lower prices. Free trade also bring access to
larger markets allowing the most efficient producers
to serve more customers. Increased competition also
forces the least efficient producers out of business,
freeing up capital and workers for the growing firms
serving foreign markets.
Free trade grows the size of economic pie. A
5
Source: BEA Data on 2017 state GDP in current dollars. Retrieved from https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-11/qgdpstate1118.xlsx
6
Census end of year counts. Retrieved from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2017/state/totals/nst-est2017-01.xlsx
7
In a survey of prominent economists, 95 percent agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, “Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers
better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.” Retrieved from http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/free-trade
8
Langenfeld, J. and Nieberding, J. (2005) “The Benefits of Free Trade to U.S. Consumers”. Business Economics Retrieved from: http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/
eco338/050trade-debt/freetr/050700benefits.pdf
92 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
bigger pie means that, in theory, everyone can get a
bigger slice and we can all be better off. In practice,
free trade leads to winners and losers complicating
the story. Some firms and industries can tap into
international markets, selling more products in more
places and earning higher profits. Other firms and
industries struggle to compete and lose out under
free trade. The winners gain more than the losers
lose, but free trade can lead to distributional issues.
The biggest winners from free trade tend to be
consumers. They get more choices at lower prices,
but the gains for each individual consumer are spread
over small price decreases in hundreds of products.
There are estimates that reducing trade barriers in the
U.S. lowered prices for households by around $2,500,
equivalent to giving every American a 6 percent
raise.8 The benefits aggregated across every family in
the country are huge, but they are widely dispersed
and hard for consumers to identify. The biggest
beneficiaries of free trade often do not realize how
much they benefit.
While U.S. consumers pay lower prices for a host
of imported products, a small number of U.S. firms
lose out from free trade. These companies tend to
be smaller, less productive and in industries where
other countries are globally competitive. While this is
a relatively small group of companies and industries,
their lost sales can be large and the impacts of
imports into the U.S. on their bottom line are easy to
observe.
This dichotomy makes trade liberalization
politically difficult. The biggest beneficiaries enjoy
lower prices without realizing how trade impacts
them. Their gains are small, but they add up. The
biggest losers from trade are relatively few, but
their losses can be directly tied to trade and can
be large. This means the losers from free trade
energetically lobby against it, while the beneficiaries
are mostly silent.
The direct benefits of free trade are mostly
enjoyed by consumers and the most productive,
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Figure 4.2: Tennessee Export Statistics

$10
Plastics

$8

Electrical Machinery
Exports (Billion US $)

$6

Motor Vehicle & Parts

$4
Precision Instruments

$2

Industrial Machinery

$0
Canada Mexico China Japan Belgium $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7
Exports (Billion US $)
Source: U.S. Trade Online as reported by GlobalEdge.

Figure 4.3: Tennessee Import Statistics

25
Precision Instruments

20
Motor Vehicle & Parts
Imports (Billion US $)

15
Pharmaceuticals

10
Electrical Machinery

5
Industrial Machinery

0
China Japan Mexico Ireland Canada 0 5 10 15 20
Imports (Billion US $)
Source: U.S. Trade Online as reported by GlobalEdge.

globally competitive firms. Free trade also allows
companies to set up global supply chains, sourcing
their inputs from wherever they can get the highest
quality at the lowest price. U.S. firms that source
inputs from abroad can then charge lower prices
to consumers and compete in global markets.
International supply chains allow U.S. firms to
concentrate on what they do best.
Trade Statistics for Tennessee
In 2017, Tennessee exported $33 billion worth
of goods and services. That made Tennessee
the 14th largest exporter in the country between
New Jersey at 12th and North Carolina at 14th.
Nearly 140,000 workers in Tennessee are directly
employed in manufacturing exports. That is out
of a manufacturing labor force of nearly 350,000
workers. Around 40 percent of Tennessee’s
manufacturing labor force is employed at plants
that export. In 2015, over 7,000 Tennessee firms
sold products overseas.
Figure 4.2 summarizes Tennessee’s biggest
export partners and products. Tennessee exports
mostly go to Canada and Mexico followed by China,
Japan and Belgium. Nearly half of Tennessee’s

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exports go to Canada and Mexico, the U.S.’s

NAFTA partners. Tennessee’s largest exported
product is industrial machinery, a broad category
that include anything from precision drills to trac- Free Trade in Tennessee
tors. The next most exported products are preci-
sions instruments, vehicle parts, electrical machin- Free trade is popular among
ery and plastics. These five products account for a Tennesseans. Vanderbilt conducts a regular
little less than two-thirds of Tennessee’s exports. survey of Tennessee residents to assess
Tennessee exports more man-made staple public opinion on a variety of topics. In the
fibers9 than any other state. Tennessee is also the last two May surveys, they have asked
third largest exporter of ships and boats, beverages, around 1,000 Tennessee registered voters,
cotton, and musical instruments. While these sectors “In general, do you think that free trade
are not large, they include the types of products that between the U.S. and other countries has
are internationally associated with the state. been a good thing or a bad thing for the
In 2017, Tennessee imported almost $79 bil- United States?” The results are summarized

lion in goods and services, the ninth most of any in Table 4.1 below. Opinion on both free

state. Figure 4.3 summarize Tennessee’s import trade and trade agreements is trending up

partners and products. China is by far the largest strongly. In the May 2018 poll 63 percent

source of Tennessee’s imports with a value of $24 of respondents said that free trade was

billion, around a quarter of total imports. Japan, generally a good thing, up from 50 percent
in the May 2017 poll. Opinion on free trade
Mexico, Ireland and Canada round out the top five
agreements is also up from 50 percent
import sources. Together they account from more
saying these agreements are generally a
than two-thirds of Tennessee’s imports.
good thing for the U.S. in May 2017 to 56
Tennessee’s most valuable import is industrial
percent in May 2018.
machinery. These machines are used by manu-
facturing firms to build their production lines,
laboratory equipment, electrical machines and Table 4.1: Tennessean’s
transportation manufacturers from engine produc- opinions on free trade
ers to car manufactures. The rest of the top five
most-imported products are electrical machinery, Are free trade agreements good for the U.S.?
pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles and parts, and Good Thing Bad Thing Other
precision instruments. The value of imports is May-18 56 35 9
particularly concentrated among the top products. May-17 50 39 11
Tennessee imports more than $10 billion of the
Is free trade generally good for the U.S.?
top four products and together they account for
nearly three-quarters of total imports. Good Thing Bad Thing Other
Tennessee’s imports consist mostly of inputs May-18 63 30 7
to producers rather than final consumer goods. May-17 50 35 15
Most of Tennessee’s imports are used by lo-
cal companies in their production process. By
sourcing these goods from overseas, Tennessee’s Note: Based on a survey of around 1,000 registered voters
in Tennessee. Source: Center for the Study of Democratic
companies can source high-quality products at Institutions at Vanderbilt University. Retrieved from https://
www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/spring2018topline.pdf.
9
Man-made staple fibers include things like nylon, polyester and polypropylene.
These products are primarily used in textile manufacturing. See U.S. Customs
definitions for a full list of products. http://www.wcoomd.org/~/media/wco/
public/global/pdf/topics/nomenclature/instruments-and-tools/hs-nomeclature-
2017/2017/1155_2017e.pdf?la=en

94 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY,
CONTINUED
the lowest possible prices. These savings help
local companies remain competitive with both
domestic and foreign competitors.
Tennessee and China have a deep trade relation-
ship. China is by far Tennessee’s largest trade partner
summing across imports and exports. Tennessee’s
imports from China are equivalent to around 8
percent of Tennessee’s state GDP. No state trades
more with China relative to the size of its econo-
my.10 The majority of these imports are parts and
machines used by Tennessee’s producers. Disruption
of this supply chain is extremely costly. It forces
Tennessee’s businesses to source new inputs, negoti-
ate prices and ensure that supply is not interrupted.
Trade Policy
Trade barriers have been falling since the
end of World War II driven by a mix of multilat-
eral and bilateral trade negotiations. The Bret-
ton Woods agreement gave rise to the General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which
encouraged reducing tariffs and addressing
non-tariff barriers like subsidies, quotas or import
licensing agreements. The GATT struggled to
address increasing globalization and the entry of
more nations into the global trading order, so
in 1995 the World Trade Organization (WTO)
superseded the GATT with a mission to build a
standing organization to manage trade disputes
and continue efforts to lower trade barriers.
The WTO is a global organization that pro-
duces consensus-driven trade agreements, making
trade liberalization move slowly. The current
Doha round of negotiations opened in 2001 with
ambitious goals to remove agricultural subsidies,
protect intellectual property, and continue to low-
er trade barriers. Negotiations broke down over
disagreements between developed and developing
countries and progress on reducing trade barriers
has stalled.
10
Source: https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2017/apr/07/tennessee-imported-27-billion-chinese/421783/
11
The main exception is the U.S. FTA with Israel which entered into force in 1985. NAFTA is also an FTA and entered into force in 1994.
12
Source: https://www.trade.gov/fta/
13
On November 30, 2018 NAFTA was superseded by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). See below for more details.
14
Tennessee’s nine-member U.S. House delegation all voted in favor of the agreement. Source: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/103-1993/h575
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
Countries that want to continue toward freer
international trade have resorted to bilateral nego-
tiations to create Free Trade Areas (FTAs). These
agreements typically include a small number of
countries and commit the signatories to lowering
trade barriers beyond WTO requirements. The
U.S. has entered into fourteen FTA’s with twenty
countries. Most of these agreements entered into
force in the 2000’s as the U.S. shifted attention
from the stalled WTO process to FTA’s.11 Around
half of U.S. exports are sent to countries with
which the U.S. has an FTA.12
The North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) was the largest U.S. Free Trade Area.13
NAFTA formed from a U.S.-Canadian Free Trade
agreement that went into force in 1989 fulfilling a
campaign promise of Ronald Regan. Shortly after
that time, Mexican officials began to negotiate for
membership in the free trade agreement. The first
Bush administration negotiated with Canada and
Mexico to extend the agreement. The Clinton ad-
ministration negotiated side agreements designed
to protect labor rights and environmental stan-
dards in all three countries. The full package of
agreements was approved by the U.S. House in a
234-200 vote on November 17, 1993.14
NAFTA came into force in 1994. It immedi-
ately lowered tariffs on half of Mexican exports
to the U.S. and one-third of U.S. exports to Mexi-
co. It also included phaseouts for most remaining
tariffs over ten to fifteen years. By 2008 all three
countries had met their commitments under the
agreement and NAFTA was fully in force.
Measuring the impact of FTAs is difficult,
but economists generally agree that NAFTA has
benefited all three countries. Total trade among
the member countries grew quickly, from around
$300 billion in 1993 to more than $1 trillion in
2016. Figure 4.4 below illustrates the growth in
the volume of trade and the trade balance from
the time the agreement was signed through 2016.
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Figure 4.4: Merchandise Trade Among NAFTA Countries

$700

$600

$500

$400
US $ (Billions)

$300

$200

$100

$0

- $100

- $200
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Total Exports Total Imports Trade Balance

Billions of nominal U.S. dollars. Source: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf.

Both imports and exports have grown over the percent of GDP or around $80 billion over the
last twenty years, but imports have grown more last two decades.16 Some of the benefits are in the
quickly leading to a persistent $100 billion trade form of increased exports to NAFTA signatories
deficit between the U.S. and the other signato- allowing U.S. based firms to earn higher profits.
ries.15 Much of the benefit is the in form of lower pric-
Isolating the effect of NAFTA on the U.S. es for consumers. Lower prices add up to billions
economy is difficult. Trade with Mexico and of dollars in savings, but these benefits are widely
Canada was growing before the agreement. After dispersed across the economy. Most consumers
the agreement trade between the U.S. and other save a little bit of money every year thanks to
non-signatories grew quickly as well. How much NAFTA.
of the increase in trade between NAFTA mem- These gains must be evaluated relative to the
bers was caused by the agreement and how much costs of NAFTA. While some companies took
would have happened anyway? How much of advantage of the opportunity to expand into the
the increase in trade between NAFTA members Canadian and Mexican markets, others faced new
is simply displacing trade between the U.S. and competition from foreign producers. Economic
other non-NAFTA members? Economists cannot research suggests that NAFTA has been associ-
answer these questions with certainty. ated with job losses in import competing indus-
Most economic studies estimate small, but tries and growth in exporting industries. The net
significant benefits of NAFTA. Around 0.5 impact on U.S. jobs is subject to a great deal of

15
Most of the trade deficit is accounted for by imports of crude oil from both Mexico and Canada. From 2009-2014 the U.S. ran a small trade surplus excluding crude
oil trade. In 2016, the most recent year with detailed data available the trade deficit excluding oil was around $50 billion. Source: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.
pdf
16
Source: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact

96 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

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4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY,

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debate.17 There is agreement that some workers Partnership (TPP) and the Chinese-backed
lost their jobs due to import competition from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
NAFTA partners and due to geographic or skill (RCEP). TPP is an ambitious regional trade agree-
constraints could not find another comparable ment covering 12 countries that would have been
job. Policy makers have crafted legislation to help the largest U.S. FTA, far surpassing NAFTA. In
these workers.18 addition to lowering tariffs, TPP includes environ-
As the insistence of the Trump administra- mental, labor and intellectual property standards.
tion the NAFTA signatories have renegotiated Potentially most importantly, it was designed to
the agreement. On November 30, 2018, the three develop regulatory alignment so that product
countries signed a new treaty called the United health and safety standards were consistent across
States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The countries. This would facilitate additional trade
USMCA adds some requirements about domestic by allowing U.S. producers to meet domestic
content in automobiles, reduces tariffs in the Ca- standards and be sure that their products were
nadian dairy industry and lengthens pharmaceu- approved in each of the other signatories.
tical patents. It also must be reauthorized every RCEP is a larger agreement, covering 16
sixteen years adding uncertainty to future tariff countries including China and India, that shares
rates which may dampen cross-border investment. many of the goals of TPP. RCEP aims to lower
China has also been aggressively pursuing trade barriers and enhance investment across its
FTAs with countries around the world, signing members. It is a more flexible agreement than
sixteen since 2002 and currently negotiating twen- TPP. For example, signatories agree to respect
ty-four.19 The structure of Chinese FTAs tends different capacities to implement competition
to differ from American ones. They are focused policy.21 RCEP also avoids labor and environmen-
largely on market access with less attention to tal standards. The projected economic impacts
government procurement, competition policy of RCEP are smaller than TPP due to the lower
and intellectual property.20 U.S. FTAs include projected levels of tariff reduction and regulatory
market access, but typically also consider compe- convergence.22
tition policy, environmental and labor standards. The American withdrawal from TPP did
American FTAs tend to go deeper and provide not stop it from progressing. It was signed by
larger economic benefit but are more difficult to 11 countries in March of 2018 and will enter
negotiate. The U.S. typically has bargaining power into force on December 30, 2018. The benefits
given the size of its market and often already of membership are reduced without American
complies with the intellectual property, labor and participation. RCEP was signed in November
environmental standards under negotiation. 2018 and will include countries producing more
These differences came to a head with com- than half of global GDP including most of the
petition between the U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific members of TPP.
17
Scott, R. (2011) Heading South U.S.-Mexico trade and job displacement after NAFTA. Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper #308 retrieved from https://www.
epi.org/publication/heading_south_u-s-mexico_trade_and_job_displacement_after_nafta1/ estimates a little over 100,000 lost jobs are attributable to the U.S. trade
deficit with NAFTA partners. Moran, T. and Oldenski, L. (2014). How U.S. Investments in Mexico Have Increased Investment and Jobs at Home. Peterson Institute for
Economics Briefing14-3 (retrieved from: https://piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/nafta-20-years-later) argue that NAFTA may have increased jobs in the U.S. with
around 3 new U.S. jobs for every new Mexican job. In general, these estimates should be considered educated guesses rather than a statistical fact.
18
Rosen, H. (2008). Strengthening Trade Adjustment Assistance Retrieved. Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 08-02. Retrieved from: https://
piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/strengthening-trade-adjustment-assistance
19
Source: http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/english/index.shtml accessed 10/1/18
20
More recent Chinese FTAs have gone beyond lowering tariffs, but still do not address internal competition issues.
21
Liangyu. (2017). Backgrounder: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Retrieved from: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-11/14/c_136750618.htm
22
Petri, P., Plummer, M., Urata, S. and Zhai, F. (2017). “Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific:
Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States”. Peterson Institute for International Trade Working Paper 17-10. Retrieved from: https://piie.com/system/files/
documents/wp17-10.pdf

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Tariffs
Tariffs are a tax on imports. This tax is collect-
ed as products enter the country by customs offi-
cers. Introducing tariffs raises prices for consumers
and increases sales for domestic producers, while
reducing prices for sellers. The U.S. collected a mod-
est $33 billion of tariff payments from importers
in 2017.23 This tax revenue represents less than one
percent of the 3.3 trillion total tax receipts that year.
Tariffs introduce two sources of inefficiencies
into markets. First, tariffs raise prices so some con-
sumers that would have purchased at the untaxed
price will not buy the product. Second, tariffs keep
inefficient business operating at higher levels. Econ-
omists refer to the lost benefits of free markets as
deadweight loss. The larger the tariffs and the more
price sensitive consumers and producers are, the
bigger the loss.
Economists generally agree that free trade
leads to higher rates of economic growth, but there
are some conditions under which tariffs might be
warranted. Countries that sell products for less
than they cost to produce domestically are said
to be ‘dumping’ output. In that case there is the
potential that after domestic producers go out of
business the companies selling for less than cost
can raise their prices and earn windfall profits free
from competition. This concern is valid although
examples are hard to find. Global trade agreements
include dispute settlement provisions which allow
countries to impose tariffs on exporters that dump
their products below cost. The U.S. has used this
process 427 times since 1995, including 119 cases
against China.24
Under some conditions newly emerging in-
dustries might be candidates for protection from
foreign competition. The infant industry argument
holds that temporary tariffs might provide an op-
portunity to develop a new competitor in a globally
competitive industry. In the meantime, domestic
consumers are forced to pay higher prices. If the
infant industry can survive and eventually compete
23
That represents an average tariff rate of 4.7 percent on products with a tariff and a 1.4 percent tariff rate overall. Source: https://www.usitc.gov/documents/dataweb/
ave_table_1891_2017.pdf
24
Source: WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Retrieved from: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/AD_MeasuresRepMemVsExpCty.pdf
98 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
without tariffs, then the growth of that industry
could make up for the pain felt by domestic con-
sumers. The difficulty in employing this approach
is identifying the industries which can be globally
competitive. If tariff protection does not lead to
the development of new domestic industry, then
domestic consumers were taxed for nothing. Polit-
ical pressure to pick winners can make it difficult to
identify the right industries to protect.
The arguments for tariffs rest an important as-
sumption: the exporting country does not respond.
In practice, the country that exports the taxed
product will often respond by introducing tariffs
of their own. These tariffs hurt both the import-
ing and exporting country and reduce any possible
benefits of domestic tariffs for infant industries or
antidumping. Game theorists call this a prisoner’s
dilemma. A country is better off imposing a tariff
if the other country does not respond, but if they
both impose tariffs they are each worse off than
under free trade.
There is no economic justification for intro-
ducing tariffs to respond to a trade deficit. When
imports exceed exports the exporting country
builds up piles of the importing country’s currency
which must be used to either purchase its products
or invest in their economy. Countries that run per-
sistent trade surpluses with the U.S. must either buy
American products or dollar denominated assets
like U.S. stocks and bonds. Trade deficits result from
too little savings on the part of consumers, busi-
nesses and government relative to consumption.
Taxing supply chains is particularly risky.
Products like steel are not bought directly by
consumers. They are inputs to goods that are
manufactured by U.S. firms. The announcement
of tariffs encouraged many companies to stock
up on inventory of taxed inputs leading to price
increases and shortages. Firms are faced with either
sourcing imports from new countries, identifying
domestic producers or paying the tariffs. All these
options are costly, and these costs must eventually
be passed on to consumers.
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Timeline of Tariffs Action

• 1/1/2019 — U.S. tariff rates on Chinese exports scheduled to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent.
• 9/24/2018 — U.S. implements a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese exports. China implements
retaliation on $60 billion of U.S. goods.
• 8/23/2018 — Tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports to begin. Chinese retaliation of tariffs on $16 billion of
U.S. exports to begin.
• 7/6/2018 — Tariffs rates of 25 percent on $34 billion of U.S. imports from China go into force. China imposes
tariff rates of 25 percent.
• 7/1/2018 — Canada imposes tariffs ranging from 10-25 percent on $C16.6 billion of U.S. exports.
• 6/22/2018 — EU imposes tariffs ranging from 10-50 percent on €2.8 billion of U.S. exports.
• 6/21/2018 — India imposes tariffs ranging from 5-100 percent on $10.6 billion worth of U.S. exports.
• 6/5/2018 — Mexico imposes tariffs ranging from 7-25 percent on $3 billion worth of U.S. exports.
• 6/1/2018 — Tariffs on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent) imports to the U.S. from most exporting
countries go into effect.
• 3/9/2018 — Trump signs tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from all nations, including China.
• 1/22/2018 — U.S. imposes safeguard tariffs on washing machine and solar cell imports from most global
exporters.

Sources: https://www.cmtradelaw.com/2018/10/latest-u-s-trade-actions-tariffs-and-other-countries-retaliatory-measures/ and https://farmdocdaily.

illinois.edu/2018/07/trade-timeline-and-corn-and-soybean-prices.html.

U.S. Tariffs for Tennessee’s machinery, automobile, and auto

During 2018 the U.S. imposed a series of tar-
iffs on imported products from around the world.
These new tariffs fall into two general categories.
The first are steel and aluminum tariffs referred
to as Section 232 after the section of the Trade
Expansion Act of 1962 that authorizes them.25
On June 1st the U.S. imposed a 25 percent tariff
on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on alumi-
num imports from essentially every country in the
world.26 These tariffs have raised the price of pur-
chasing steel and aluminum in the U.S. by around
the full amount of the tariff. This represents an
additional cost to all U.S. firms that use steel and
aluminum as an input. This is particularly costly
part manufacturers. Tennessee companies must
compete against imports goods produced abroad
using steel and aluminum that is not taxed since it
is embedded in the product itself placing domes-
tic producers at further disadvantage.
Section 232 allows the president to impose
tariffs if imports are deemed a threat to national
security. Over the last 55 years, thirty cases have
been brought under this section and eight times
the president has imposed tariffs. The steel and
aluminum tariffs are unique among the Section
232 cases and many business leaders worry that
they open the U.S. up to retaliation from other
countries using similar provisions.27 The Trump

25
Source: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45249.pdf
26
Several exporting countries agreed to limit their exports to the U.S. voluntarily and so were exempted from the tariff. Those countries include South Korea, Brazil,
and Argentina for steel and Argentina for aluminum. A handful of specific steel and aluminum products which cannot be sourced domestically have been exempted as
well. Limiting experts tends to drive up prices.
27
Source: https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-statement-on-commerce-departments-recommendations-to-use-section-232

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Tariffs and Soybean Prices

On April 2nd the Chinese enacted tariffs on $3 billion worth of U.S. goods. On April 3rd the U.S. responded
by listing 1,300 Chinese products that would be taxed. On April 4th China published a list of over 100 products
that would face a 25 percent tariff. That list included soybeans, Tennessee’s number one crop by acreage and
consistently among the top three cash crops.1
Farmers can sell soybeans to grain elevators around the state. Those grain elevators post daily prices and the
impact of potential tariffs in soybeans immediately affected soybeans farmers. The graph below shows daily prices
at the Clarksville grain elevator in early April. On July 6th the soybean tariffs went into effect again causing a big
decline in the prices received by Tennessee farmers. Prices continued to fall through the fall and in late November
sat around $8.40, down more than $1.30 from the previous year.2 Tennessee produces around 75 million bushels
of soybeans a year, so this price drop could represent nearly $100 million in lost farm revenue if it persists through
2019.

Figure 4.5: Tariffs and Soybean Prices

11.0

10.5

10.0
Soybean Prices ($/bu)

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

Jan. 3 Feb. 3 March 3 April 3 May 3 June 3 July 3 Aug. 3 Sept. 3 Oct. 3

Contract Cash

Soybean prices per bushel at Clarksville grain elevator as of 2PM each day. Elevator closed on weekends and for the 4th of July holiday. Cash prices paid for
delivery that day. Contract price for delivery three months out.

1
Source: http://utcrops.com/soybean/index.htm.
2
Source: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nv_gr110.txt. Thanks to Jodee Inman of USDA for help identifying this data.

100 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT


4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY,
CONTINUED
administration is currently considering imposing
Section 232 tariffs on automobile and auto parts.
These tariffs would jeopardize the supply chain
of Tennessee car manufacturers.
Separate from the Section 232 tariff actions,
the U.S. has also imposed a series of tariffs on im-
ports from China under Section 301 of the Trade
Act of 1974. That section allows the U.S. to im-
pose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices.
These tariffs have been part of an escalating trade
war between the two countries that covers thou-
sands of products and billions of dollars of trade.
While the steel and aluminum tariffs covered all
exporters for a small number of products, the
Section 301 tariff actions have focused exclusively
on China and cover thousands of products and
nearly $250 billion in trade.
The Section 301 tariffs were imposed in three
tranches starting on June 1, 2018. Each tranche
led to a set of retaliatory tariffs from China
which led in turn to additional U.S. tariffs. The
largest group of tariffs, covering around 6,000
products and $200 billion worth of imports was
phased in at a 10 percent tax rate on September
24, 2018 and is set to rise to 25 percent on Janu-
ary 1, 2019.
Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
Countries facing U.S. import tariffs have gen-
erally responded by imposing tariffs on imports
into their country from the U.S. These tariffs
directly impact U.S. exporting firms and are often
designed to target consumer products exported
from the U.S. to avoid impacting manufacturers
in the retaliating country. Steel and aluminum ex-
porting countries have responded to Section 232
tariffs with tariffs against imports from the U.S.
Those countries include: Canada, the EU, Mexico,
China, India, Russia and Turkey.28 These coun-
tries have imposed tariffs on U.S. metal exports
and a host of agricultural products that the U.S.
exports. Soybeans, pork and bourbon tend to face
tariffs from many countries since the U.S. exports
28
Japan has also announced tariffs against imports from the U.S. that have not yet gone into effect.
29
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/u-s-said-to-plan-more-china-tariffs-if-trump-xi-meeting-fails
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
these in large quantities. These products are
among Tennessee’s largest exports and represent
a highly-visible target.
China has separately responded to Section
301 tariffs by imposing tariffs of their own on
U.S. imports to China. The tariffs affect U.S.
companies who export to China. China an-
nounced the tariffs in three tranches as a tit-for-
tat response to U.S. tariffs. The first, implemented
on July 6, was a 25 percent tariff on over 500
products. This tariff affected $3 billion worth of
U.S. goods including whiskey and soybeans, two
important Tennessee exports.
The U.S. responded by announcing tariffs
targeting 1,300 Chinese products with a value of
$50 billion. China responded by implementing
a 25 percent tariff on 333 U.S. products with a
value of $16 billion on August 23rd. This list
included U.S. exports of chemicals and cars
among other products. On September 24th the
U.S. imposed tariffs on an additional $10 billion
worth of Chinese goods and China immediately
imposed tariffs of 5-10 percent on $60 billion
worth of U.S. exports. The Trump administration
suggested they are studying imposing tariffs of 25
percent on all remaining Chinese imports, up to
$267 billion in value.
The retaliatory tariffs will hurt the Tennes-
see economy. Brookings Institute, a nonpartisan
think tank, has identified employment in sectors
that face retaliatory tariffs from China for every
county in the U.S. Around 1.6 percent of Tennes-
seans work in an industry facing Chinese tariffs.
Figure 4.6 below reports the fraction of workers
employed in industries facing Chinese tariffs by
county for Tennessee. The exposure to these
tariffs vary across the state from nearly a third of
the workforce in Moore County, home to the Jack
Daniels distillery down to less than 0.1 percent
in Cheatham County. Bloomberg economists es-
timate that the trade war with China could lower
U.S. economic growth in 2019 by 1.5 percentage
point.29
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 101
102

CONTINUED
4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY,

CHAPTER 4
|
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

|
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee
Figure 4.6: Potential Job Loss from Trump Tariffs

2.00% 1.53% 0.29%

0.27% 4.80% 0.01% 0.03%
1.72% 4.90%
10.59% 0.91% 0.16% 0.03%
0.39%
1.01% 4.84% 2.60% 1.24% 0.07% 0.41%

1%
1.17%

0.0
0.59% 1.97% %
0.47% 0.61% 0.63% 0.12%
0.28% .61
6.92% 3.39% 15
9%

0.48% 0.42%
7.05%
5.8

1.45%
0.19% 5.52% 0.69%
10.5 9.58% 0.03%
9% 1.42%

8%
0.92% 6.07%

2.5
1.01% 0.97%
%

0.24% 0.12% 0.90% 0.01% to 3.00%

3.09

1.78%

1%
1.19% 9.17%

5%

0.3
0.25% 2.33% 0.35% 3.01% to 6.00%

2.7
0.39%
1.97% 0.78% 6.01% to 7.50%
0.77% 0.76%
7.37% 0.27% 7.50% to 10.00%
4.40% 1.22% 2.61% 1.99%

%
0.02% 3.31% 10.01% to 32.75%
1.92%

3.39
1.26% 4.59% 1.52%
Zero or suppressed

32.75%

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/04/09/how-chinas-tariffs-could-affect-u-s-workers-and-industries/.

4.5. TARIFFS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY,
CONTINUED
International Trade Forecast
The forecast for international trade in 2019 is
uncertain. The U.S. and China continue to ne-
gotiate for a cease fire in their trade war. Those
negotiations are likely to stretch into the begin-
ning of 2019 and beyond. The outcome of those
negotiations could be lower tariffs or a pause in
new tariffs. If the negotiations fail, then additional
tariffs are likely. This uncertainty affects U.S. firms
with global supply chains, U.S. firms that export to
China and eventually the entire U.S. economy.
The potential Schedule 201 tariffs on automo-
biles and auto parts represents a big risk for Ten-
nessee. The Trump Administration held hearings
on the issue in July of 2018 and since then has said
little. Significant tariffs on auto parts would have a
big effect on car and part manufacturers in Tennes-
see. If the U.S. were to impose tariffs on automo-
bile imports, other countries would likely respond
in kind threatening Tennessee’s auto manufacturers
30
Source: https://tnecd.com/industries/automotive/
31
A strong dollar raises the price of U.S. exports and reduces the price of imports to the U.S. typically leading to an increase in the trade deficit.
Figure 4.7: Forecast trade balance in 2019
bils. of $2012
500
0 0
Exports (right)
-500
-1000
-1500
1999 2004
Source: IHS Markit™.
Federal Tax Reform and Tennessee | CHAPTER 4
$6 billion export market.30
Forecasters expect the trade deficit to grow
in 2019. Imports are predicted to fall, but exports
are likely to fall faster. International uncertainty
and rising interest rates in the U.S. have combined
to cause the dollar to strengthen. The outlook
suggests this will persist through 2019. Retalia-
tion from trade partners, along with slower global
growth, is also expected to dampen U.S. exports.
Figure 4.7 below reports forecast imports, exports
and the trade balance for 2019.31
Tariffs raise prices of U.S. made goods that
rely on steel or aluminum as well as the thou-
sands of Chinese products facing tariff rates. As
manufacturers pass those price increases along to
consumers the U.S. should see an uptick in infla-
tion in 2019. Inflation is expected to spike early
in 2019 as U.S. firms pass through increased prices
from tariffs, but after that spike inflation is forecast
to return to trend. Tariffs are unlikely to lead to
persistent increases in price levels.
4-qtr % ch
20
Imports (right)
-20
-40
-60
2009 2014 2019
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 103
4.6. REFERENCES
Bruce, Donald, Tami Gurley-Calvez, and Matthew
Murray, A Missed Opportunity: the Economic Cost of
Delaying Pro-Business Tax Reform, National Asso-
ciation of Manufacturers, 2015.
Chetty and Saez (2005) Dividend Taxes and Cor-
porate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Div-
idend Tax Cut. The Quarterly Journal of Economics
120(3)791-833.
Fuest et al. (2018) “Do Higher Corporate Taxes
Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germa-
ny.” American Economic Review 102(2)393-418.
Gale, William G., and Andrew A. Samwick. 2014.
Effects of Income Tax Changes on Economic
Growth. Brookings Institution.
104 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
House and Shapiro (2008) “Temporary Invest-
ment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence
from Bonus Depreciation.” American Economic
Review 98(3)737-768.
Ohrn (2018) “The Effect of Corporate Taxation
on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence
from the DPAD.” American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy 10(2)272-301.
Sammartino, Frank, Philip Stallworth, and David
Weiner. 2018. The Effect of the TCJA Individual
Income Tax Provisions Across Income Groups
and Across the States. The Tax Policy Center.
 Forecast Data | APPENDIX A

APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA

IN THIS SECTION —

APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA

QUARTERLY PAGES 2–25 (2018:4 TO 2021:1)
ANNUAL PAGES 26–41 (2018 TO 2028)

QUARTERLY FORECAST TABLES

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted........................................................................ 2

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted...................................................... 4
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)....................... 5
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars).................... 6
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)............................................. 7
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)........................... 8
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)..................... 9
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)................................................. 10
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)............................... 12
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)....................... 13
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)...................... 14
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)............................ 15
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars).................. 17
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)......................... 18
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted.................................................. 20
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted......................................................... 21
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)............................................................. 22
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)................................................................... 23
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars).......................................................... 24
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)................................................................ 25

ANNUAL FORECAST TABLES

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted...................................................................... 26

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators...................................................................................... 27
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars).............................................................................. 28
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)........................................................................... 29
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)................................................. 30
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs).................................................................. 31
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)............................................................ 32
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)................................................................. 33
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)............................................................. 34
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate........................................................................................... 35
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)...................................................................................................... 36
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)................................................................................................... 37
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)..................................................................... 38
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars).................................................................. 40

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 1

2

APPENDIX A
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

US GDP (Bil2012$) SAAR……………………… 18511.6 18671.5 18791.9 18909.6 19029.1 19141.6 19249.0 19344.5 19446.6 19524.4 19603.2 19680.6 18050.7 18574.7 19082.3 19479.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 4.16 3.50 2.60 2.53 2.55 2.39 2.26 2.00 2.13 1.61 1.62 1.59 2.22 2.90 2.73 2.08

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.87 3.04 3.12 3.20 2.80 2.52 2.43 2.30 2.19 2.00 1.84 1.74 2.22 2.90 2.73 2.08

Forecast Data
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR…………………………… 20411.9 20659.0 20904.3 21177.5 21426.9 21680.5 21935.1 22178.9 22426.1 22659.0 22885.7 23125.1 19485.4 20504.1 21555.0 22537.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 7.61 4.93 4.83 5.33 4.79 4.82 4.78 4.52 4.53 4.22 4.06 4.25 4.16 5.23 5.13 4.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.44 5.47 5.41 5.67 4.97 4.94 4.93 4.73 4.66 4.51 4.33 4.27 4.16 5.23 5.13 4.56

TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR… 293222 295091 296486 297394 299179 300706 302571 304388 306602 308235 310241 311695 288183 294246 299962 307366
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.43 2.57 1.90 1.23 2.42 2.06 2.50 2.42 2.94 2.15 2.63 1.89 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.90 2.09 2.31 1.78 2.03 1.90 2.05 2.35 2.48 2.50 2.53 2.40 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47

US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR… 16196 16299 16347 16418 16533 16649 16769 16906 17038 17126 17234 17334 15867 16237 16592 17076
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.22 2.57 1.19 1.76 2.82 2.84 2.91 3.30 3.17 2.08 2.54 2.34 2.57 2.33 2.19 2.91
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.41 2.41 2.15 1.93 2.08 2.15 2.58 2.97 3.06 2.86 2.77 2.53 2.57 2.33 2.19 2.91

TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……… 316832 320103 323569 326724 330527 333978 337729 341385 345247 349019 352790 356477 305691 318668 332239 347110
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 3.43 4.19 4.40 3.96 4.74 4.24 4.57 4.40 4.60 4.44 4.39 4.25 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.13 4.32 4.47 4.00 4.32 4.33 4.38 4.49 4.45 4.50 4.46 4.42 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48

US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……… 17500 17680 17840 18038 18265 18491 18718 18961 19186 19392 19597 19824 16831 17585 18378 19284
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 4.24 4.19 3.67 4.50 5.15 5.05 4.98 5.29 4.84 4.37 4.30 4.71 4.38 4.48 4.51 4.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.66 4.65 4.31 4.15 4.37 4.59 4.92 5.12 5.04 4.87 4.70 4.55 4.38 4.48 4.51 4.93

TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)………………… 3057.5 3073.7 3083.0 3094.5 3103.5 3110.8 3117.9 3124.9 3132.5 3138.8 3145.3 3150.0 3011.2 3063.8 3106.7 3135.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.21 2.14 1.22 1.49 1.17 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.97 0.81 0.83 0.60 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.73 1.97 1.86 1.76 1.50 1.21 1.13 0.98 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.80 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92

US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)…………………… 148.7 149.3 149.9 150.5 151.1 151.6 152.0 152.4 153.1 153.1 153.3 153.6 146.6 149.0 151.3 153.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.72 1.69 1.67 1.55 1.44 1.32 1.20 1.10 1.66 0.23 0.45 0.63 1.58 1.63 1.53 1.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.62 1.67 1.70 1.66 1.59 1.50 1.38 1.27 1.32 1.05 0.86 0.74 1.58 1.63 1.53 1.12

TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)……………………… 350.2 354.1 355.9 356.9 357.7 358.4 359.1 359.5 359.9 360.3 360.8 361.1 348.8 352.3 358.0 360.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.28 4.46 2.06 1.10 0.97 0.74 0.76 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.53 0.33 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.39 1.54 1.78 2.22 2.14 1.22 0.89 0.74 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.45 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60

US MFG JOBS (MIL)…………………………… 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.4 12.7 12.9 12.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.39 1.81 2.13 1.95 1.84 0.00 1.09 -0.55 -1.74 -1.40 -1.82 -0.89 0.74 2.11 1.67 -0.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.12 2.29 2.26 2.07 1.93 1.48 1.22 0.59 -0.30 -0.66 -1.38 -1.46 0.74 2.11 1.67 -0.44

TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………… 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted

US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………… 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.4
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP

(2012=100.0)……………...........................… 110.2 110.6 111.2 112.0 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.5 107.9 110.3 113.0 115.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 3.05 1.67 2.23 2.73 2.19 2.38 2.46 2.47 2.35 2.57 2.40 2.62 1.92 2.24 2.36 2.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.44 2.31 2.24 2.42 2.20 2.38 2.44 2.37 2.42 2.46 2.45 2.49 1.92 2.24 2.36 2.43

US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)…… 108.1 108.5 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.2 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.4 106.1 108.3 110.8 112.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.98 1.58 2.45 2.69 2.26 2.14 2.02 1.93 1.61 2.25 1.72 2.32 1.76 2.10 2.27 1.96
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.19 2.19 2.12 2.17 2.25 2.39 2.28 2.09 1.92 1.95 1.88 1.97 1.76 2.10 2.27 1.96

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,

ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)………………… 2.505 2.517 2.535 2.553 2.570 2.585 2.597 2.609 2.617 2.633 2.642 2.659 2.451 2.513 2.576 2.625
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.66 2.00 2.90 2.90 2.63 2.31 1.98 1.85 1.14 2.51 1.33 2.66 2.14 2.51 2.53 1.90
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.65 2.61 2.51 2.36 2.61 2.69 2.46 2.19 1.82 1.87 1.71 1.91 2.14 2.51 2.53 1.90

BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)………… 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.4

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)…… 1.737 1.923 2.193 2.440 2.690 2.942 3.160 3.200 3.420 3.420 3.420 3.420 1.002 1.825 2.808 3.365

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)…… 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.2

TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$)…………… 30714 30932 31052 31141 31254 31420 31571 31716 31890 31997 32153 32275 118117 123208 125386 127755
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.72 2.87 1.56 1.15 1.46 2.14 1.94 1.84 2.21 1.36 1.96 1.53 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.57 3.47 2.36 2.07 1.76 1.58 1.67 1.84 2.03 1.84 1.84 1.76 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89

TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)…………………… 33187 33554 33889 34212 34529 34897 35240 35571 35909 36231 36562 36912 125303 133435 138877 144273
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 4.75 4.49 4.04 3.88 3.75 4.33 3.99 3.81 3.86 3.63 3.71 3.88 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.86 5.73 4.52 4.29 4.04 4.00 3.99 3.97 4.00 3.82 3.75 3.77 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89

TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM

(2012$)…………….......................……….... 46480 46646 46681 46764 46920 47082 47257 47390 47540 47632 47805 47933 46344 46621 47006 47592
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… -1.68 1.44 0.30 0.71 1.34 1.39 1.49 1.13 1.28 0.77 1.46 1.08 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.31 0.20 0.82 0.19 0.95 0.93 1.23 1.34 1.32 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)…… 50222 50600 50945 51376 51836 52291 52748 53150 53532 53934 54361 54820 49158 50489 52063 53744
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.26 3.04 2.75 3.43 3.64 3.56 3.54 3.08 2.91 3.04 3.21 3.42 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.51 2.39 2.96 2.36 3.21 3.34 3.54 3.45 3.27 3.14 3.06 3.14 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
3
4

APPENDIX A
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

US GDP (2012$) SAAR………………….…… 56394 56765 57029 57284 57543 57780 58002 58186 58390 58521 58654 58783 55324 56528 57653 58439

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.42 2.66 1.87 1.80 1.82 1.66 1.54 1.28 1.41 0.90 0.91 0.88 1.49 2.18 1.99 1.36
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.14 2.31 2.39 2.44 2.04 1.79 1.71 1.58 1.47 1.28 1.13 1.03 1.49 2.18 1.99 1.36

Forecast Data
US GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 62183 62807 63439 64154 64794 65444 66095 66712 67337 67917 68476 69072 59721 62400 65123 67612
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 6.85 4.07 4.09 4.58 4.05 4.08 4.04 3.78 3.80 3.49 3.34 3.52 3.42 4.49 4.36 3.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.69 4.73 4.66 4.89 4.20 4.20 4.19 3.99 3.92 3.78 3.60 3.54 3.42 4.49 4.36 3.82

TN PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR…… 43316 43592 43798 43562 43823 44047 44320 44221 44543 44780 45071 44922 42945 43467 43938 44654
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 1.43 2.57 1.90 -2.14 2.42 2.06 2.50 -0.89 2.94 2.15 2.63 -1.31 1.92 1.22 1.08 1.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.01 1.20 1.42 0.92 1.17 1.04 1.19 1.51 1.64 1.66 1.70 1.59 1.92 1.22 1.08 1.63

US PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR…… 49339 49551 49609 49737 49995 50257 50529 50851 51160 51333 51565 51773 48630 49414 50130 51228
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 1.49 1.73 0.47 1.03 2.09 2.12 2.18 2.57 2.45 1.36 1.82 1.62 1.84 1.61 1.45 2.19
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.69 1.69 1.43 1.18 1.33 1.42 1.85 2.24 2.33 2.14 2.05 1.81 1.84 1.61 1.45 2.19

TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 46804 47287 47799 47858 48415 48920 49470 49596 50157 50705 51253 51377 45554 47075 48666 50428
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.43 4.19 4.40 0.49 4.74 4.24 4.57 1.02 4.60 4.44 4.39 0.97 3.72 3.34 3.38 3.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.23 3.42 3.56 3.12 3.44 3.45 3.50 3.63 3.60 3.65 3.60 3.59 3.72 3.34 3.38 3.62

US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 53312 53751 54141 54642 55233 55818 56400 57032 57608 58125 58637 59211 51585 53516 55525 57851
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.50 3.34 2.93 3.75 4.40 4.30 4.24 4.55 4.10 3.64 3.57 3.98 3.64 3.74 3.75 4.19
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.92 3.91 3.57 3.38 3.60 3.84 4.17 4.37 4.30 4.13 3.97 3.82 3.64 3.74 3.75 4.19

TN TAXABLE SALES (2012$)………………… 4537 4569 4587 4561 4578 4602 4624 4608 4633 4648 4671 4652 17602 18201 18366 18560
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 2.72 2.87 1.56 -2.22 1.46 2.14 1.94 -1.45 2.21 1.36 1.96 -1.66 2.13 3.40 0.91 1.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.66 2.57 1.47 1.21 0.90 0.72 0.81 1.01 1.20 1.00 1.01 0.95 2.13 3.40 0.91 1.05

TN TAXABLE SALES ($)……………………… 4903 4957 5006 5011 5058 5112 5162 5168 5217 5264 5312 5320 18673 19712 20342 20960
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 4.75 4.49 4.04 0.41 3.75 4.33 3.99 0.45 3.86 3.63 3.71 0.62 3.94 5.56 3.20 3.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.93 4.81 3.61 3.41 3.16 3.12 3.11 3.12 3.15 2.97 2.90 2.95 3.94 5.56 3.20 3.03

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
 of 2012 dollars)
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...………292184 293222 295091 296486 297394 299179 300706 302571 304388 306602 308235 310241 311695 288183 294246 299962 307366
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 3.32 1.43 2.57 1.90 1.23 2.42 2.06 2.50 2.42 2.94 2.15 2.63 1.89 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.12 1.90 2.09 2.31 1.78 2.03 1.90 2.05 2.35 2.48 2.50 2.53 2.40 2.83 2.10 1.94 2.47

WAGES AND SALARIES……………… 142768 142940 143966 144761 145553 146463 147311 148196 148942 149774 150363 151221 151859 140372 143608 146881 150075
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 5.20 0.48 2.90 2.23 2.21 2.52 2.34 2.42 2.03 2.25 1.58 2.30 1.70 2.59 2.31 2.28 2.17
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.50 2.04 2.00 2.69 1.95 2.46 2.32 2.37 2.33 2.26 2.07 2.04 1.96 2.59 2.31 2.28 2.17

OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 32079 32060 32190 32269 32195 32276 32286 32335 32431 32591 32672 32815 32926 31835 32150 32273 32627
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 2.00 -0.23 1.64 0.98 -0.91 1.00 0.13 0.61 1.18 1.99 1.00 1.76 1.36 2.93 0.99 0.38 1.10
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 1.56 0.62 0.70 1.09 0.36 0.67 0.30 0.20 0.73 0.98 1.20 1.48 1.53 2.93 0.99 0.38 1.10

PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 41719 42055 42232 42397 42434 42722 42819 43077 43349 43741 44021 44272 44416 40927 42101 42763 43846
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 3.45 3.26 1.70 1.57 0.35 2.74 0.91 2.43 2.55 3.66 2.59 2.30 1.31 6.23 2.87 1.57 2.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.18 3.12 2.68 2.49 1.71 1.59 1.39 1.60 2.16 2.38 2.81 2.77 2.46 6.23 2.87 1.57 2.53

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……… 43237 43335 43580 43738 43724 44044 44409 44863 45360 45886 46334 46818 47208 42431 43472 44260 46100
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 1.28 0.91 2.28 1.45 -0.12 2.96 3.35 4.15 4.51 4.72 3.96 4.24 3.37 3.45 2.45 1.81 4.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.43 2.74 3.19 1.48 1.13 1.64 1.90 2.57 3.74 4.18 4.34 4.36 4.07 3.45 2.45 1.81 4.16

TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………… 57178 57609 57981 58226 58413 58620 58855 59114 59415 59788 60048 60382 60626 56796 57748 58751 59908
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 2.98 3.05 2.61 1.70 1.29 1.43 1.62 1.77 2.05 2.54 1.75 2.24 1.63 1.09 1.68 1.74 1.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 1.15 1.09 1.89 2.58 2.16 1.76 1.51 1.53 1.71 1.99 2.03 2.15 2.04 1.09 1.68 1.74 1.97

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 22906 22914 22984 23022 23036 23048 23068 23098 23182 23239 23257 23310 23375 22374 22956 23063 23247
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 7.38 0.13 1.23 0.67 0.26 0.21 0.35 0.51 1.47 0.99 0.30 0.91 1.12 3.83 2.60 0.46 0.80
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.41 2.61 2.09 2.31 0.57 0.59 0.37 0.33 0.63 0.83 0.82 0.92 0.83 3.83 2.60 0.46 0.80

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1890 -1863 -1875 -1882 -1889 -1897 -1906 -1916 -1926 -1938 -1946 -1957 -1966 -1804 -1878 -1902 -1942
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 18.83 -5.45 2.50 1.62 1.38 1.80 1.92 2.04 2.12 2.43 1.79 2.31 1.70 6.53 4.09 1.31 2.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 6.58 3.15 2.66 4.01 -0.04 1.82 1.68 1.78 1.97 2.13 2.09 2.16 2.06 6.53 4.09 1.31 2.09
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 43163 43316 43592 43798 43562 43823 44047 44320 44221 44543 44780 45071 44922 42945 43467 43938 44654
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… -0.22 1.43 2.57 1.90 -2.14 2.42 2.06 2.50 -0.89 2.94 2.15 2.63 -1.31 1.92 1.22 1.08 1.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 1.23 1.01 1.20 1.42 0.92 1.17 1.04 1.19 1.51 1.64 1.66 1.70 1.59 1.92 1.22 1.08 1.63

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
5
6

APPENDIX A
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...… 314168 316832 320103 323569 326724 330527 333978 337729 341385 345247 349019 352790 356477 305691 318668 332239 347110
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 5.87 3.43 4.19 4.40 3.96 4.74 4.24 4.57 4.40 4.60 4.44 4.39 4.25 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 4.05 4.13 4.32 4.47 4.00 4.32 4.33 4.38 4.49 4.45 4.50 4.46 4.42 4.65 4.25 4.26 4.48

Forecast Data
WAGES AND SALARIES…………… 153509 154449 156168 157984 159908 161809 163610 165416 167045 168652 170258 171961 173677 148899 155528 162686 169479
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 7.79 2.47 4.53 4.73 4.96 4.84 4.53 4.49 4.00 3.90 3.86 4.06 4.05 4.40 4.45 4.60 4.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 4.43 4.28 4.23 4.86 4.17 4.77 4.77 4.70 4.46 4.23 4.06 3.96 3.97 4.40 4.45 4.60 4.18

OTHER LABOR INCOME…………… 34492 34641 34919 35217 35371 35657 35858 36093 36372 36699 36995 37315 37656 33769 34817 35745 36845
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 4.50 1.74 3.24 3.46 1.76 3.28 2.27 2.64 3.14 3.63 3.27 3.50 3.71 4.74 3.11 2.66 3.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 3.48 2.82 2.90 3.23 2.55 2.93 2.69 2.49 2.83 2.92 3.17 3.39 3.53 4.74 3.11 2.66 3.08

PROPRIETORS INCOME…………… 44858 45441 45812 46270 46619 47198 47557 48083 48618 49254 49845 50344 50798 43415 45595 47364 49515
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 5.99 5.31 3.30 4.06 3.05 5.07 3.07 4.49 4.53 5.33 4.89 4.06 3.65 8.11 5.02 3.88 4.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 5.13 5.38 4.93 4.66 3.93 3.87 3.81 3.92 4.29 4.35 4.81 4.70 4.48 8.11 5.02 3.88 4.54

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS…… 46490 46824 47274 47733 48037 48659 49322 50076 50873 51670 52465 53239 53990 45009 47080 49023 52062
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 3.77 2.91 3.89 3.94 2.57 5.28 5.57 6.25 6.52 6.41 6.30 6.03 5.77 5.27 4.60 4.13 6.20
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 4.36 5.00 5.44 3.63 3.33 3.92 4.33 4.91 5.91 6.19 6.37 6.32 6.13 5.27 4.60 4.13 6.20

TRANSFER PAYMENTS…………… 61480 62248 62896 63544 64174 64762 65367 65983 66636 67324 67993 68663 69337 60246 62542 65071 67654
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 5.51 5.09 4.23 4.19 4.02 3.72 3.79 3.82 4.02 4.19 4.04 4.00 3.98 2.88 3.81 4.04 3.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 3.06 3.30 4.11 4.75 4.38 4.04 3.93 3.84 3.84 3.95 4.02 4.06 4.05 2.88 3.81 4.04 3.97

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS… 24629 24759 24932 25125 25308 25463 25621 25782 26000 26169 26334 26506 26733 23734 24861 25544 26252
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 10.02 2.11 2.83 3.13 2.96 2.47 2.49 2.54 3.43 2.62 2.55 2.64 3.47 5.66 4.75 2.75 2.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 5.36 4.86 4.32 4.48 2.76 2.85 2.76 2.62 2.73 2.77 2.78 2.81 2.82 5.66 4.75 2.75 2.77

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT………… -2032 -2013 -2034 -2054 -2075 -2096 -2117 -2139 -2160 -2182 -2204 -2226 -2248 -1914 -2033 -2107 -2193
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 21.75 -3.58 4.12 4.11 4.11 4.10 4.10 4.09 4.09 4.08 4.07 4.07 4.06 8.40 6.26 3.61 4.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 8.60 5.41 4.91 6.21 2.13 4.11 4.11 4.10 4.10 4.09 4.08 4.08 4.07 8.40 6.26 3.61 4.09

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($) 46410 46804 47287 47799 47858 48415 48920 49470 49596 50157 50705 51253 51377 45554 47075 48666 50428
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………… 2.23 3.43 4.19 4.40 0.49 4.74 4.24 4.57 1.02 4.60 4.44 4.39 0.97 3.72 3.34 3.38 3.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………… 3.14 3.23 3.42 3.56 3.12 3.44 3.45 3.50 3.63 3.60 3.65 3.60 3.59 3.72 3.34 3.38 3.62

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
of current dollars)
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions
 Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
of jobs)
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………… 3057.8 3067.5 3115.1 3069.7 3103.8 3104.6 3150.3 3099.8 3132.7 3132.6 3178.0 3124.7 3010.0 3064.3 3107.1 3135.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.77 1.98 1.85 1.76 1.51 1.21 1.13 0.98 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.80 1.50 1.80 1.40 0.92
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION… 126.3 128.5 127.9 124.6 128.6 131.4 130.9 127.7 131.9 135.1 134.9 131.7 124.0 126.2 128.9 132.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.39 1.53 1.85 2.13 1.87 2.24 2.33 2.48 2.55 2.86 3.07 3.16 4.17 1.70 2.14 2.74
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 350.4 354.4 356.3 355.9 357.9 358.7 359.5 358.5 360.1 360.7 361.2 360.1 348.8 352.3 358.0 360.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.40 1.54 1.78 2.22 2.14 1.22 0.89 0.74 0.61 0.54 0.49 0.45 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
DURABLE GOODS………………………………………… 222.9 226.4 228.0 228.2 229.6 230.1 230.9 230.6 231.5 231.8 232.4 232.0 222.0 224.7 229.7 231.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.25 2.10 2.45 3.08 3.00 1.66 1.26 1.03 0.85 0.74 0.66 0.64 1.28 1.19 2.24 0.82
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………… 127.6 128.1 128.3 127.7 128.4 128.6 128.6 128.0 128.6 128.9 128.8 128.1 126.8 127.7 128.3 128.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.66 0.55 0.61 0.72 0.63 0.43 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.12 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…………………… 627.4 630.5 642.4 629.7 634.5 635.6 645.5 629.8 633.2 633.1 642.4 627.2 621.0 629.9 636.3 634.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.56 1.42 1.72 1.67 1.13 0.81 0.49 0.02 -0.19 -0.39 -0.49 -0.42 0.61 1.42 1.02 -0.26
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………… 122.2 122.9 123.1 122.4 123.5 124.2 124.1 122.8 123.4 123.7 123.5 122.3 121.1 122.4 123.5 123.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.80 0.96 1.32 0.92 1.00 1.01 0.83 0.33 -0.01 -0.38 -0.52 -0.40 1.38 1.05 0.94 -0.15
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………… 334.6 333.9 340.2 332.4 335.1 333.5 339.9 331.1 333.6 331.8 338.0 329.5 334.8 334.5 335.2 333.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.11 -0.12 0.47 0.95 0.14 -0.13 -0.09 -0.38 -0.44 -0.51 -0.55 -0.49 0.29 -0.09 0.21 -0.47
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………… 170.5 173.6 179.1 174.9 175.9 177.9 181.6 175.9 176.2 177.6 180.9 175.4 165.1 173.0 177.6 177.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 5.12 4.85 4.49 3.61 3.15 2.50 1.37 0.56 0.15 -0.17 -0.35 -0.30 0.71 4.77 2.64 0.04
INFORMATION………………………………………………… 46.8 45.1 45.6 45.4 45.8 45.2 45.6 45.4 45.7 45.3 45.8 45.7 45.6 45.8 45.5 45.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.66 -0.66 -0.16 -0.17 -2.27 0.24 0.11 -0.07 -0.13 0.16 0.42 0.65 0.64 0.27 -0.54 0.09
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………………………… 161.2 162.0 162.3 161.8 163.2 164.1 164.7 164.3 165.5 166.2 166.5 165.8 158.1 161.2 163.4 165.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.90 1.80 1.75 1.41 1.26 1.32 1.46 1.57 1.42 1.29 1.13 0.88 3.30 1.96 1.36 1.35
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES……………… 414.5 418.4 428.7 418.4 424.4 428.2 439.1 429.3 436.3 439.8 450.4 438.1 406.6 416.7 427.5 439.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 2.40 2.62 3.26 3.29 2.39 2.34 2.43 2.62 2.80 2.71 2.57 2.04 0.56 2.48 2.61 2.68
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………… 436.7 437.2 447.8 445.7 447.1 446.5 456.6 453.8 454.6 453.9 464.4 461.9 431.9 439.7 449.0 456.7
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.69 1.95 1.68 1.98 2.38 2.11 1.97 1.82 1.69 1.67 1.69 1.77 1.89 1.80 2.11 1.72
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………………… 350.2 355.9 346.5 335.3 356.8 359.3 348.8 336.6 358.6 361.7 351.5 338.4 329.8 345.3 350.1 352.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 4.54 5.64 4.05 2.06 1.90 0.96 0.68 0.41 0.49 0.67 0.77 0.52 3.19 4.70 1.39 0.59
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………… 116.3 116.5 115.4 115.4 118.2 118.1 116.5 116.1 119.0 118.9 117.4 117.1 113.9 115.6 117.1 117.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 1.31 1.51 1.06 0.99 1.68 1.36 0.91 0.58 0.62 0.67 0.75 0.82 2.66 1.49 1.24 0.66

Forecast Data
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………… 428.1 418.9 445.0 440.3 430.1 420.2 445.9 441.0 430.6 420.6 446.3 441.6 430.1 432.3 434.1 434.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.68 0.30 0.37 0.69 0.47 0.31 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.49 0.51 0.42 0.12
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………………… 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.7 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.6 48.8 48.8 48.7 48.5 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ -0.88 0.07 0.43 0.01 0.20 -0.22 -0.32 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.26 -0.29 -0.34 -0.40 -0.08 -0.28
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………… 379.3 369.9 396.0 391.6 381.2 371.3 397.1 392.4 381.9 371.8 397.6 393.2 381.1 383.4 385.3 385.9

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............................................ 0.89 0.33 0.36 0.78 0.50 0.37 0.28 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.62 0.48 0.17

APPENDIX A
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
|
7
8

APPENDIX A
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 222.9 226.4 228.0 228.2 229.6 230.1 230.9 230.6 231.5 231.8 232.4 232.0 222.0 224.7 229.7 231.6

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.25 2.10 2.45 3.08 3.00 1.66 1.26 1.03 0.85 0.74 0.66 0.64 1.28 1.19 2.24 0.82

Forecast Data
WOOD PRODUCTS……………………………… 12.4 12.7 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.2 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.80 0.79 3.11 4.27 5.23 3.69 2.48 2.11 1.30 1.19 0.85 0.75 2.88 0.57 3.90 1.36

NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS………… 13.8 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.22 3.17 3.24 3.25 3.04 1.67 1.17 1.03 0.87 0.72 0.56 0.34 2.19 2.35 2.27 0.79

PRIMARY METALS………….…………………… 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -3.47 -3.15 -1.64 -1.04 2.21 1.97 1.11 1.22 0.90 0.54 0.49 0.44 0.48 -2.22 1.05 0.79

FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS……………… 36.3 36.5 36.8 36.9 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.9 35.6 36.3 37.2 37.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.25 2.81 2.47 3.61 2.47 2.11 1.63 1.49 1.34 1.22 1.23 1.12 -0.02 2.08 2.44 1.32

MACHINERY………………………………………… 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.9 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.5 26.2 26.4 26.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.85 3.96 1.27 0.94 1.32 0.40 0.53 0.53 0.34 0.27 0.24 0.09 0.20 2.77 0.80 0.34

COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…… 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.00 -2.04 -1.52 -0.96 -1.95 -2.19 -2.48 -3.49 -3.40 -3.37 -3.33 -3.03 0.69 -0.90 -1.89 -3.40

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..…………………… 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.35 1.21 1.49 1.50 1.50 0.66 0.47 0.30 0.05 -0.28 -0.37 -0.21 -2.69 0.37 1.03 -0.08

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT……………… 74.0 76.1 77.0 77.4 77.3 77.6 78.2 78.3 78.1 78.5 79.1 79.2 74.6 75.2 77.6 78.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -1.11 2.51 3.85 4.80 4.48 1.98 1.57 1.22 1.11 1.13 1.10 1.14 2.85 0.85 3.18 1.14

FURNITURE………………………………………… 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.35 1.06 1.69 2.31 2.10 1.41 0.85 0.78 0.73 0.66 0.26 0.31 1.15 0.42 1.66 0.61

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS………… 16.2 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.67 2.27 2.08 2.60 2.70 1.83 1.67 1.29 1.15 0.85 0.60 0.54 2.62 2.09 2.20 0.97

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
(thousands of jobs)
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted
 Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
(thousands of jobs)
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 127.6 128.1 128.3 127.7 128.4 128.6 128.6 128.0 128.6 128.9 128.8 128.1 126.8 127.7 128.3 128.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.66 0.55 0.61 0.72 0.63 0.43 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.12 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19

FOOD………………………………………………… 35.6 35.9 35.8 35.6 35.6 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.7 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.3 35.7 35.8 35.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.81 0.75 0.31 0.59 0.03 0.19 0.46 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.52 0.57 2.87 1.12 0.32 0.48

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………… 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 8.70 7.98 6.75 5.14 3.50 2.11 1.70 1.65 1.46 1.36 1.28 1.17 5.97 7.97 3.08 1.44

PAPER……………………………………………… 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.23 0.00 0.34 0.47 0.54 0.03 -0.13 -0.13 -0.01 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.40 0.03 0.23 0.03

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………… 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -1.10 -0.37 -0.36 -0.61 -0.86 -1.48 -1.68 -1.59 -1.62 -1.68 -1.67 -1.66 -1.63 -0.83 -1.16 -1.64

CHEMICALS………………………………………… 24.9 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.00 0.67 0.46 0.27 0.15 -0.53 -0.70 -0.81 -0.81 -0.70 -0.64 -0.58 -1.48 0.22 -0.20 -0.74

PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………… 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.3 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.49 2.18 3.70 3.60 3.11 2.74 1.80 1.82 1.67 1.49 1.26 0.91 5.47 2.39 2.81 1.56

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…… 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.4 11.7 11.0 10.7 10.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -5.44 -6.88 -7.38 -5.60 -2.61 -0.89 -1.04 -1.07 -1.01 -1.05 -0.98 -1.02 -0.50 -5.71 -2.57 -1.03

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
9
10

APPENDIX A
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 3057.5 3073.7 3083.0 3094.5 3103.5 3110.8 3117.9 3124.9 3132.5 3138.8 3145.3 3150.0 3011.2 3063.8 3106.7 3135.4

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.21 2.14 1.22 1.49 1.17 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.97 0.81 0.83 0.60 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92

Forecast Data
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.73 1.97 1.86 1.76 1.50 1.21 1.13 0.98 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.80 1.54 1.75 1.40 0.92
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 126.2 126.4 127.1 127.7 128.6 129.2 130.0 130.9 131.9 132.9 134.0 135.0 124.1 126.2 128.9 132.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.78 0.53 2.16 2.09 2.72 2.00 2.49 2.72 2.98 3.26 3.33 3.06 4.18 1.66 2.14 2.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.77 1.50 1.85 2.13 1.87 2.24 2.33 2.48 2.55 2.86 3.07 3.16 4.18 1.66 2.14 2.74
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 350.2 354.1 355.9 356.9 357.7 358.4 359.1 359.5 359.9 360.3 360.8 361.1 348.8 352.3 358.0 360.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.28 4.46 2.06 1.10 0.97 0.74 0.76 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.53 0.33 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.39 1.54 1.78 2.22 2.14 1.22 0.89 0.74 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.45 1.43 1.00 1.61 0.60
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 222.7 226.3 227.8 228.6 229.4 230.0 230.6 231.0 231.4 231.7 232.2 232.5 222.0 224.6 229.7 231.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.63 6.55 2.67 1.53 1.36 1.08 1.09 0.60 0.62 0.66 0.76 0.51 1.28 1.18 2.24 0.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.24 2.10 2.45 3.07 3.00 1.66 1.26 1.03 0.85 0.74 0.66 0.64 1.28 1.18 2.24 0.82
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 127.5 127.8 128.1 128.2 128.3 128.3 128.4 128.5 128.6 128.6 128.6 128.6 126.8 127.7 128.3 128.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.65 0.90 0.99 0.34 0.28 0.14 0.17 0.26 0.22 0.11 0.12 0.01 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.65 0.55 0.61 0.72 0.63 0.44 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.12 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 628.7 631.0 633.0 635.3 635.8 636.2 636.1 635.4 634.6 633.7 633.0 632.7 621.7 629.4 635.8 634.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.52 1.49 1.24 1.45 0.34 0.22 -0.03 -0.45 -0.52 -0.57 -0.41 -0.17 0.71 1.23 1.03 -0.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.26 1.27 1.72 1.67 1.13 0.81 0.49 0.02 -0.19 -0.39 -0.49 -0.42 0.71 1.23 1.03 -0.26
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 122.2 122.5 122.8 123.2 123.4 123.7 123.8 123.6 123.4 123.2 123.1 123.1 121.2 122.4 123.5 123.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.44 0.99 0.99 1.28 0.75 1.02 0.29 -0.75 -0.59 -0.45 -0.30 -0.25 1.39 0.98 0.94 -0.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.71 0.71 1.32 0.92 1.00 1.01 0.83 0.33 -0.01 -0.38 -0.52 -0.40 1.39 0.98 0.94 -0.15
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 334.7 335.2 334.7 335.4 335.2 334.8 334.4 334.1 333.7 333.1 332.6 332.5 335.2 334.2 334.9 333.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.04 0.64 -0.60 0.77 -0.23 -0.46 -0.43 -0.39 -0.50 -0.74 -0.56 -0.17 0.40 -0.30 0.22 -0.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.26 -0.16 0.47 0.95 0.14 -0.13 -0.09 -0.38 -0.44 -0.51 -0.55 -0.49 0.40 -0.30 0.22 -0.47
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 171.8 173.3 175.5 176.7 177.2 177.7 177.9 177.7 177.5 177.4 177.3 177.2 165.3 172.8 177.4 177.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.00 3.54 5.04 2.89 1.15 0.95 0.50 -0.35 -0.48 -0.35 -0.23 -0.12 0.83 4.53 2.65 0.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.78 4.56 4.49 3.61 3.15 2.50 1.37 0.56 0.15 -0.17 -0.35 -0.30 0.83 4.53 2.65 0.05
INFORMATION…………………………………… 46.6 45.4 45.4 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.4 45.4 45.5 45.5 45.6 45.7 45.5 45.7 45.5 45.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.39 -9.92 0.23 0.56 0.48 -0.32 -0.27 -0.18 0.24 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.40 -0.53 0.09
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.12 -0.15 -0.16 -0.17 -2.27 0.24 0.11 -0.07 -0.13 0.16 0.42 0.65 0.72 0.40 -0.53 0.09
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 161.1 161.6 162.0 162.4 163.1 163.7 164.4 165.0 165.4 165.9 166.2 166.4 158.1 161.2 163.4 165.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.35 1.25 1.04 1.01 1.75 1.49 1.58 1.48 1.12 1.00 0.92 0.50 3.33 1.95 1.36 1.35
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.98 1.89 1.75 1.41 1.26 1.32 1.46 1.57 1.42 1.29 1.13 0.88 3.33 1.95 1.36 1.35
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 416.4 419.1 421.3 423.5 426.3 428.9 431.5 434.6 438.3 440.6 442.6 443.4 407.0 416.7 427.6 439.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.36 2.68 2.05 2.14 2.70 2.48 2.38 2.91 3.44 2.12 1.84 0.78 0.67 2.39 2.61 2.68
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.52 2.70 3.26 3.29 2.39 2.34 2.43 2.62 2.80 2.71 2.57 2.04 0.67 2.39 2.61 2.68
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 437.8 440.9 443.4 445.7 448.2 450.2 452.1 453.9 455.8 457.8 459.8 461.9 431.9 439.8 449.1 456.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.64 2.89 2.28 2.11 2.23 1.82 1.71 1.54 1.70 1.75 1.77 1.87 1.85 1.83 2.11 1.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.62 2.21 1.68 1.98 2.38 2.11 1.97 1.82 1.69 1.67 1.69 1.77 1.85 1.83 2.11 1.72
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 343.3 346.6 347.9 349.4 349.8 349.9 350.3 350.9 351.5 352.3 353.0 352.7 329.5 345.1 349.9 351.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.13 3.86 1.57 1.70 0.49 0.09 0.44 0.63 0.79 0.81 0.86 -0.38 3.11 4.74 1.39 0.58
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.81 5.15 4.05 2.06 1.90 0.96 0.68 0.41 0.49 0.67 0.77 0.52 3.11 4.74 1.39 0.58
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 115.0 115.5 116.2 116.7 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.4 117.6 117.9 118.1 118.4 114.0 115.6 117.0 117.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.17 1.87 2.39 1.94 0.53 0.58 0.58 0.62 0.69 0.81 0.88 0.90 2.69 1.36 1.23 0.66
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.05 1.05 1.06 0.99 1.68 1.36 0.91 0.58 0.62 0.67 0.75 0.82 2.69 1.36 1.23 0.66
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 432.2 433.1 433.6 434.1 434.2 434.4 434.5 434.8 434.8 434.8 434.9 435.4 430.5 432.5 434.3 434.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.02 0.80 0.51 0.42 0.14 0.16 0.13 0.21 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.45 0.61 0.47 0.42 0.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.54 0.58 0.37 0.69 0.47 0.31 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.61 0.47 0.42 0.12
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 48.8 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.7 48.7 48.7 48.6 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.09 1.37 0.09 -0.33 -0.32 -0.31 -0.30 -0.17 -0.35 -0.31 -0.21 -0.29 -0.27 -0.45 -0.08 -0.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.95 -0.41 0.43 0.01 0.20 -0.22 -0.32 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.26 -0.29 -0.27 -0.45 -0.08 -0.28
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 383.4 384.1 384.7 385.2 385.4 385.6 385.7 386.0 386.0 386.1 386.2 386.8 381.4 383.6 385.5 386.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.30 0.73 0.56 0.52 0.20 0.22 0.18 0.26 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.54 0.72 0.59 0.48 0.17
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.73 0.71 0.36 0.78 0.50 0.37 0.28 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.20 0.72 0.59 0.48 0.17
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (% )………… 0.02 0.00 – – – – – – – – – – 0.00 0.00 – –
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
11
12

APPENDIX A
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

|

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS……………………… 222.7 226.3 227.8 228.6 229.4 230.0 230.6 231.0 231.4 231.7 232.2 232.5 222.0 224.6 229.7 231.6

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 1.63 6.55 2.67 1.53 1.36 1.08 1.09 0.60 0.62 0.66 0.76 0.51 1.28 1.18 2.24 0.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.24 2.10 2.45 3.07 3.00 1.66 1.26 1.03 0.85 0.74 0.66 0.64 1.28 1.18 2.24 0.82

Forecast Data
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………… 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.33 7.41 7.01 2.51 4.07 1.26 2.08 1.07 0.81 0.80 0.74 0.66 2.88 0.57 3.90 1.36
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.79 0.80 3.11 4.27 5.23 3.69 2.48 2.11 1.30 1.19 0.85 0.75 2.88 0.57 3.90 1.36

NONMETALLIC MINERALS………………… 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 2.02 6.73 3.13 1.20 1.19 1.16 1.15 0.63 0.54 0.55 0.52 -0.23 2.18 2.33 2.27 0.79
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.25 3.14 3.24 3.25 3.04 1.67 1.17 1.03 0.87 0.72 0.56 0.34 2.18 2.33 2.27 0.79

PRIMARY METALS………….……………… 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -10.59 2.87 4.15 0.12 1.76 1.91 0.68 0.52 0.48 0.50 0.47 0.31 0.48 -2.22 1.05 0.79
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -3.46 -3.13 -1.64 -1.04 2.21 1.97 1.11 1.22 0.90 0.54 0.49 0.44 0.48 -2.22 1.05 0.79

FABRICATED METALS………………….. 36.2 36.5 36.8 37.0 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 37.9 35.6 36.3 37.2 37.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 6.43 3.30 3.07 1.70 1.82 1.84 1.14 1.14 1.25 1.33 1.19 0.72 -0.03 2.08 2.44 1.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.22 2.83 2.47 3.61 2.47 2.11 1.63 1.49 1.34 1.22 1.23 1.12 -0.03 2.08 2.44 1.32

MACHINERY…………………………………… 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 25.5 26.2 26.4 26.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -0.87 4.14 0.01 0.57 0.60 0.43 0.51 0.58 -0.16 0.14 0.42 -0.04 0.22 2.79 0.80 0.34
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.79 3.97 1.27 0.94 1.32 0.40 0.53 0.53 0.34 0.27 0.24 0.09 0.22 2.79 0.80 0.34

COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………… 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.26 -2.36 -2.27 0.57 -3.68 -3.34 -3.39 -3.56 -3.32 -3.20 -3.25 -2.34 0.70 -0.89 -1.89 -3.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.00 -2.05 -1.52 -0.96 -1.95 -2.19 -2.48 -3.49 -3.40 -3.37 -3.33 -3.03 0.70 -0.89 -1.89 -3.40

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..……………… 19.24 19.43 19.49 19.51 19.53 19.56 19.58 19.57 19.54 19.50 19.51 19.53 19.27 19.35 19.55 19.53
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.36 4.05 1.22 0.41 0.37 0.63 0.46 -0.26 -0.64 -0.67 0.10 0.37 -2.70 0.38 1.03 -0.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.38 1.22 1.49 1.50 1.50 0.66 0.47 0.30 0.05 -0.28 -0.37 -0.21 -2.70 0.38 1.03 -0.08

TRANSPORTATION EQUIP………………… 74.20 76.22 76.79 77.20 77.52 77.73 78.00 78.14 78.38 78.60 78.86 79.04 74.60 75.22 77.61 78.50
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 2.90 11.33 3.04 2.17 1.67 1.07 1.39 0.76 1.21 1.15 1.29 0.93 2.84 0.83 3.18 1.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.12 2.48 3.85 4.80 4.48 1.98 1.57 1.22 1.11 1.13 1.10 1.14 2.84 0.83 3.18 1.14

FURNITURE…………………………………… 9.51 9.59 9.69 9.70 9.71 9.72 9.77 9.77 9.78 9.79 9.79 9.80 9.52 9.57 9.73 9.78
of jobs)
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 1.30 3.34 4.14 0.52 0.44 0.58 1.88 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.40 1.16 0.44 1.66 0.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.33 1.10 1.69 2.31 2.10 1.41 0.85 0.78 0.73 0.66 0.26 0.31 1.16 0.44 1.66 0.61

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………… 16.23 16.44 16.53 16.62 16.67 16.74 16.80 16.84 16.86 16.89 16.90 16.93 16.02 16.35 16.71 16.87
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.70 5.39 2.07 2.32 1.09 1.84 1.42 0.80 0.55 0.64 0.41 0.58 2.61 2.09 2.20 0.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.67 2.26 2.08 2.60 2.70 1.83 1.67 1.29 1.15 0.85 0.60 0.54 2.61 2.09 2.20 0.97

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (thousands of jobs)
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 127.5 127.8 128.1 128.2 128.3 128.3 128.4 128.5 128.6 128.6 128.6 128.6 126.8 127.7 128.3 128.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 0.65 0.90 0.99 0.34 0.28 0.14 0.17 0.26 0.22 0.11 0.12 0.01 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.65 0.55 0.61 0.72 0.63 0.44 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.12 1.70 0.67 0.50 0.19

FOOD……………………………………………… 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.9 35.9 36.0 36.0 36.1 35.3 35.7 35.8 35.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.67 -0.21 -0.64 0.58 0.40 0.41 0.45 0.46 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.63 2.87 1.12 0.32 0.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.81 0.75 0.31 0.59 0.03 0.19 0.46 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.52 0.57 2.87 1.12 0.32 0.48

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO……………………… 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.9 7.5 7.7 7.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 9.02 7.17 2.96 1.59 2.36 1.52 1.33 1.41 1.57 1.15 0.99 0.97 5.97 7.97 3.09 1.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.71 7.88 6.75 5.14 3.50 2.11 1.70 1.65 1.46 1.36 1.28 1.17 5.97 7.97 3.09 1.44

PAPER…………………………………………… 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -0.60 1.79 0.40 0.32 -0.33 -0.25 -0.27 0.35 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.08 0.40 0.04 0.23 0.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.25 0.05 0.34 0.47 0.54 0.03 -0.13 -0.13 -0.01 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.40 0.04 0.23 0.03

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………… 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.6 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -0.47 1.01 -0.87 -2.08 -1.49 -1.47 -1.65 -1.74 -1.60 -1.74 -1.60 -1.68 -1.64 -0.83 -1.16 -1.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.12 -0.35 -0.36 -0.61 -0.86 -1.48 -1.68 -1.59 -1.62 -1.68 -1.67 -1.66 -1.64 -0.83 -1.16 -1.64

CHEMICALS……………………………………… 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -0.07 1.76 -0.16 -0.44 -0.54 -0.98 -0.83 -0.88 -0.53 -0.56 -0.58 -0.65 -1.48 0.22 -0.20 -0.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.01 0.67 0.46 0.27 0.15 -0.53 -0.70 -0.81 -0.81 -0.70 -0.64 -0.58 -1.48 0.22 -0.20 -0.74

PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………… 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 3.79 3.20 5.61 1.82 1.86 1.72 1.80 1.91 1.25 1.01 0.86 0.52 5.47 2.39 2.81 1.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.45 2.19 3.70 3.60 3.11 2.74 1.80 1.82 1.67 1.49 1.26 0.91 5.47 2.39 2.81 1.56

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS… 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 11.7 11.0 10.7 10.6
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………-12.69 -7.72 -0.51 -0.92 -1.11 -1.02 -1.09 -1.05 -0.89 -1.16 -0.83 -1.20 -0.50 -5.70 -2.58 -1.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -5.43 -6.87 -7.38 -5.60 -2.61 -0.89 -1.03 -1.07 -1.01 -1.05 -0.98 -1.02 -0.50 -5.70 -2.58 -1.03

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
13
14

APPENDIX A
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019
History Forecast Data Annual
|

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 46476 46741 46200 47141 46915 47176 46771 47773 47536 47726 47314 48322 46364 46617 47001 47587
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.27 0.19 0.83 0.19 0.95 0.93 1.23 1.34 1.32 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.11 0.55 0.82 1.25

|
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING

Forecast Data
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 55159 54540 55411 57487 56414 55862 56815 58974 57885 57258 58211 60526 54634 55341 56644 58082
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.51 1.19 1.24 2.19 2.27 2.42 2.53 2.59 2.61 2.50 2.46 2.63 2.29 1.29 2.35 2.54
MANUFACTURING…………………………… 56528 56491 56589 57111 57307 57678 58087 58674 58902 59195 59607 60112 56112 56520 57546 59094
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.15 0.13 1.19 1.13 1.38 2.10 2.65 2.74 2.78 2.63 2.62 2.45 0.67 0.73 1.81 2.69
DURABLE GOODS………………………… 56134 55812 55876 56335 56577 56972 57360 57894 58160 58460 58838 59273 55369 55936 56811 58338
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.87 -0.09 1.65 0.74 0.79 2.08 2.66 2.77 2.80 2.61 2.58 2.38 0.70 1.02 1.56 2.69
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 57217 57680 57844 58487 58601 58929 59380 60069 60226 60505 60983 61622 57412 57544 58849 60446
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.08 0.52 0.43 1.83 2.42 2.17 2.66 2.71 2.77 2.67 2.70 2.59 0.62 0.23 2.27 2.71
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 43212 43295 42786 43947 43849 43980 43471 44584 44394 44376 43791 44976 42898 43215 43812 44286
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.32 0.66 1.20 0.87 1.47 1.58 1.60 1.45 1.24 0.90 0.74 0.88 0.81 0.74 1.38 1.08
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 66522 66578 66892 67728 67546 67487 67714 68376 68051 67838 68000 68696 67155 66730 67619 68066
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.29 -0.20 0.82 1.19 1.54 1.37 1.23 0.96 0.75 0.52 0.42 0.47 -0.91 -0.63 1.33 0.66
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 29638 29783 29274 30049 29871 30053 29532 30236 29950 29981 29365 30170 29263 29651 29876 29883
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.18 2.28 0.26 0.47 0.79 0.91 0.88 0.62 0.26 -0.24 -0.56 -0.22 1.05 1.33 0.76 0.02
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 53139 52661 51869 53713 53852 53671 52979 54986 55177 54918 54207 56251 52757 52770 53554 54822
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.28 -1.81 1.59 0.56 1.34 1.92 2.14 2.37 2.46 2.32 2.32 2.30 1.75 0.03 1.49 2.37
INFORMATION………………………………… 64713 65391 64574 64990 64788 65744 65324 65672 65334 66069 65464 65895 64387 65359 65211 65635
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.76 3.15 -1.69 -2.65 0.12 0.54 1.16 1.05 0.84 0.49 0.21 0.34 5.14 1.51 -0.23 0.65
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 66824 67745 68042 68679 68596 68639 68910 69313 69108 68979 69174 69611 66912 67561 68706 69143
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.60 -0.47 0.05 1.55 2.65 1.32 1.28 0.92 0.75 0.50 0.38 0.43 -0.34 0.97 1.70 0.64
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54259 54647 53753 55561 55426 55617 54942 56988 56922 57116 56479 58528 53255 54811 55386 56876
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.07 1.69 3.64 -1.81 2.15 1.78 2.21 2.57 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.70 1.27 2.92 1.05 2.69
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 46986 47209 46351 46726 46819 47061 46170 46628 46700 46914 46099 46544 47078 46783 46694 46585
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.02 0.43 0.27 0.30 -0.36 -0.31 -0.39 -0.21 -0.25 -0.31 -0.15 -0.18 0.79 -0.63 -0.19 -0.23
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 22746 22527 23103 23932 22486 22319 23013 23869 22437 22252 22966 23830 23462 23141 22937 22881
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.20 -3.19 -1.63 -1.05 -1.14 -0.93 -0.39 -0.26 -0.22 -0.30 -0.21 -0.16 2.86 -1.37 -0.88 -0.25
OTHER SERVICES…………………………… 41796 41741 42205 42321 41311 41382 41991 42195 41255 41317 41951 42201 41604 41960 41752 41679
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.26 -0.59 1.36 0.53 -1.16 -0.86 -0.51 -0.30 -0.14 -0.16 -0.10 0.01 0.27 0.86 -0.50 -0.17
(2012 dollars)
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted

GOVERNMENT………………………………… 43438 44573 41966 42382 43392 44417 41865 42336 43369 44337 41786 42191 43238 43110 43014 42957
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.32 -0.10 -0.38 -0.20 -0.11 -0.35 -0.24 -0.11 -0.05 -0.18 -0.19 -0.34 1.75 -0.30 -0.22 -0.13
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 74870 75346 75823 76339 76500 76817 77331 77829 77722 77661 77950 78223 74786 75183 76747 77790
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.03 0.50 1.73 2.20 2.18 1.95 1.99 1.95 1.60 1.10 0.80 0.51 0.11 0.53 2.08 1.36
STATE & LOCAL…………………………… 39393 40489 37782 38154 39145 40149 37507 37939 38983 39966 37359 37748 39176 39022 38739 38562
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.45 -0.23 -0.90 -0.70 -0.63 -0.84 -0.73 -0.56 -0.41 -0.45 -0.40 -0.50 2.27 -0.39 -0.73 -0.46
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (2012 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 46480 46646 46681 46764 46920 47082 47257 47390 47540 47632 47805 47933 46344 46621 47006 47592
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.68 1.44 0.30 0.71 1.34 1.39 1.49 1.13 1.28 0.77 1.46 1.08 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.31 0.20 0.82 0.19 0.95 0.93 1.23 1.34 1.32 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.07 0.60 0.83 1.25
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 55174 55446 55767 56062 56429 56790 57179 57512 57900 58209 58584 59026 54575 55312 56615 58051
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.31 1.99 2.33 2.14 2.64 2.58 2.77 2.35 2.72 2.15 2.60 3.05 2.29 1.35 2.36 2.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.13 1.22 1.24 2.19 2.27 2.42 2.53 2.59 2.61 2.50 2.46 2.63 2.29 1.35 2.36 2.54
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 56562 56549 56653 56957 57341 57737 58152 58516 58937 59255 59675 59951 56111 56521 57547 59096
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.73 -0.09 0.73 2.16 2.73 2.79 2.91 2.52 2.91 2.18 2.86 1.86 0.68 0.73 1.82 2.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.16 0.13 1.18 1.13 1.38 2.10 2.65 2.74 2.78 2.63 2.62 2.45 0.68 0.73 1.82 2.69
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 56171 55834 55926 56229 56614 56995 57412 57785 58197 58483 58891 59162 55368 55937 56813 58339
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.55 -2.38 0.66 2.19 2.77 2.72 2.95 2.63 2.88 1.98 2.82 1.85 0.70 1.03 1.56 2.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.89 -0.09 1.65 0.74 0.79 2.08 2.66 2.77 2.80 2.61 2.58 2.38 0.70 1.03 1.56 2.69
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 57243 57805 57934 58242 58630 59056 59471 59818 60256 60635 61077 61365 57411 57544 58850 60447
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.34 3.98 0.89 2.15 2.69 2.94 2.85 2.35 2.96 2.54 2.95 1.90 0.62 0.23 2.27 2.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.07 0.52 0.43 1.83 2.42 2.16 2.65 2.71 2.77 2.67 2.70 2.59 0.62 0.23 2.27 2.71
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 43121 43256 43420 43562 43756 43940 44116 44194 44300 44336 44440 44582 42848 43245 43844 44318
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.59 1.26 1.53 1.31 1.79 1.69 1.61 0.71 0.96 0.33 0.94 1.28 0.72 0.93 1.38 1.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.62 0.80 1.20 0.87 1.47 1.58 1.60 1.45 1.24 0.90 0.74 0.88 0.72 0.93 1.38 1.08
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 66558 66832 67076 67321 67583 67744 67900 67965 68088 68097 68187 68283 67130 66748 67637 68084
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.19 1.65 1.47 1.47 1.56 0.96 0.93 0.38 0.73 0.05 0.53 0.56 -0.92 -0.57 1.33 0.66
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.21 0.04 0.82 1.19 1.54 1.37 1.23 0.96 0.75 0.52 0.42 0.47 -0.92 -0.57 1.33 0.66
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 29629 29668 29749 29781 29862 29937 30010 29966 29941 29865 29841 29900 29224 29672 29897 29903
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.18 0.52 1.09 0.43 1.09 1.01 0.98 -0.59 -0.34 -1.01 -0.31 0.80 0.95 1.53 0.76 0.02
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.55 2.32 0.26 0.47 0.79 0.91 0.88 0.62 0.26 -0.24 -0.56 -0.22 0.95 1.53 0.76 0.02
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 52737 52743 52950 53157 53444 53754 54084 54416 54759 55003 55337 55668 52684 52822 53610 54879
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.92 0.04 1.58 1.57 2.18 2.34 2.47 2.48 2.55 1.79 2.45 2.42 1.62 0.26 1.49 2.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.05 -1.54 1.59 0.56 1.34 1.92 2.14 2.37 2.46 2.32 2.32 2.30 1.62 0.26 1.49 2.37

Forecast Data
INFORMATION…………………………………… 65084 65006 64858 64943 65159 65357 65611 65624 65709 65680 65751 65847 64520 65414 65268 65691
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.40 -0.48 -0.91 0.52 1.34 1.22 1.56 0.08 0.52 -0.17 0.43 0.58 5.05 1.39 -0.22 0.65
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.29 2.61 -1.69 -2.65 0.12 0.54 1.16 1.05 0.84 0.49 0.21 0.34 5.05 1.39 -0.22 0.65
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 66852 67899 68156 68407 68624 68795 69025 69039 69136 69135 69290 69336 66917 67568 68713 69150
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.01 6.42 1.52 1.48 1.27 1.00 1.35 0.08 0.57 -0.01 0.90 0.27 -0.36 0.97 1.69 0.64

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.52 -0.56 0.05 1.55 2.65 1.32 1.28 0.92 0.75 0.50 0.38 0.43 -0.36 0.97 1.69 0.64

APPENDIX A
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
|
15
16

APPENDIX A
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

|

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54016 54551 54706 54888 55177 55520 55916 56297 56667 57016 57480 57819 53192 54793 55375 56865

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -12.82 4.02 1.14 1.34 2.12 2.51 2.89 2.76 2.65 2.49 3.30 2.38 1.16 3.01 1.06 2.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.95 1.62 3.64 -1.81 2.15 1.78 2.21 2.57 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.70 1.16 3.01 1.06 2.69

Forecast Data
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 46865 46813 46811 46719 46697 46666 46629 46621 46579 46520 46557 46537 47075 46767 46678 46570
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.48 -0.44 -0.02 -0.79 -0.18 -0.26 -0.32 -0.07 -0.36 -0.51 0.32 -0.17 0.82 -0.65 -0.19 -0.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.96 0.17 0.27 0.30 -0.36 -0.31 -0.39 -0.21 -0.25 -0.31 -0.15 -0.18 0.82 -0.65 -0.19 -0.23
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 23200 23134 23004 22963 22936 22920 22914 22902 22886 22851 22867 22865 23471 23136 22933 22876
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.12 -1.14 -2.23 -0.72 -0.46 -0.28 -0.09 -0.22 -0.28 -0.61 0.29 -0.04 2.95 -1.43 -0.88 -0.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.46 -2.74 -1.63 -1.05 -1.14 -0.93 -0.39 -0.26 -0.22 -0.30 -0.21 -0.16 2.95 -1.43 -0.88 -0.25
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 42269 42102 41936 41845 41779 41740 41724 41720 41721 41674 41684 41726 41573 41983 41772 41700
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.33 -1.57 -1.57 -0.86 -0.64 -0.37 -0.16 -0.03 0.01 -0.45 0.09 0.41 0.24 0.99 -0.50 -0.17
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.51 -0.13 1.36 0.53 -1.16 -0.86 -0.51 -0.30 -0.14 -0.16 -0.10 0.01 0.24 0.99 -0.50 -0.17
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 43022 43118 43063 42991 42977 42968 42960 42945 42954 42890 42879 42798 43181 43070 42974 42917
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.50 0.89 -0.50 -0.67 -0.13 -0.09 -0.07 -0.14 0.08 -0.60 -0.10 -0.75 1.63 -0.26 -0.22 -0.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.17 -0.38 -0.38 -0.20 -0.11 -0.35 -0.24 -0.11 -0.05 -0.18 -0.19 -0.34 1.63 -0.26 -0.22 -0.13
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 74921 75500 75823 76079 76553 76974 77331 77563 77776 77819 77950 77956 74735 75170 76734 77777
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.62 3.12 1.72 1.36 2.51 2.22 1.87 1.21 1.10 0.22 0.67 0.03 0.04 0.58 2.08 1.36
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.04 0.98 1.73 2.20 2.18 1.95 1.99 1.95 1.60 1.10 0.80 0.51 0.04 0.58 2.08 1.36
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 38965 38989 38895 38790 38720 38661 38613 38571 38559 38485 38460 38378 39118 38978 38696 38519
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.00 0.25 -0.96 -1.08 -0.72 -0.60 -0.50 -0.43 -0.13 -0.76 -0.26 -0.85 2.13 -0.36 -0.72 -0.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.30 -0.60 -0.90 -0.70 -0.63 -0.84 -0.73 -0.56 -0.42 -0.46 -0.40 -0.50 2.13 -0.36 -0.72 -0.46

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (current dollars)
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019
History Forecast Data Annual
2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 50592 50218 50703 50420 51790 51831 52396 52205 53580 53527 54041 53803 55265 49179 50483 52056 53738
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.81 2.47 2.37 2.96 2.37 3.21 3.34 3.54 3.46 3.27 3.14 3.06 3.14 2.90 2.65 3.12 3.23
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 60487 59601 59163 60473 63157 62325 62043 63416 66142 65181 64834 66194 69222 57951 59931 62735 65588
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.17 4.76 3.40 3.38 4.41 4.57 4.87 4.87 4.73 4.58 4.50 4.38 4.66 4.10 3.42 4.68 4.55
MANUFACTURING…………………………… 60723 61080 61279 61758 62744 63312 64060 64836 65806 66326 67027 67782 68749 59519 61210 63738 66735
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.36 3.37 2.32 3.33 3.33 3.65 4.54 4.98 4.88 4.76 4.63 4.54 4.47 2.45 2.84 4.13 4.70
DURABLE GOODS………………………… 60132 60654 60543 60980 61891 62506 63276 64025 64931 65490 66195 66908 67788 58731 60577 62924 65881
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.59 4.11 2.09 3.80 2.93 3.05 4.51 4.99 4.91 4.78 4.61 4.50 4.40 2.48 3.14 3.88 4.70
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 61756 61824 62569 63127 64255 64741 65450 66279 67370 67817 68511 69347 70476 60899 62319 65181 68261
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.94 2.11 2.72 2.56 4.05 4.72 4.60 4.99 4.85 4.75 4.68 4.63 4.61 2.39 2.33 4.59 4.73
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 46844 46692 46964 46694 48281 48444 48846 48522 50004 49990 50248 49796 51438 45502 46798 48523 50009
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.69 2.52 2.86 3.34 3.07 3.75 4.01 3.92 3.57 3.19 2.87 2.63 2.87 2.59 2.85 3.69 3.06
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 71965 71878 72221 73003 74407 74623 74954 75582 76687 76628 76814 77326 78566 71230 72267 74892 76864
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.04 0.87 1.98 2.95 3.39 3.82 3.78 3.53 3.06 2.69 2.48 2.31 2.45 0.83 1.45 3.63 2.63
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 32160 32025 32308 31948 33013 33001 33379 32963 33911 33725 33948 33393 34505 31040 32110 33089 33744
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.51 3.39 4.52 2.38 2.65 3.05 3.31 3.18 2.72 2.19 1.71 1.30 1.75 2.84 3.45 3.05 1.98
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 57431 57418 57125 56607 59010 59494 59610 59136 61669 62131 62185 61641 64333 55956 57145 59313 61907
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.59 1.91 0.33 3.74 2.75 3.62 4.35 4.47 4.50 4.43 4.32 4.24 4.32 3.54 2.12 3.79 4.37
INFORMATION………………………………… 71781 69924 70933 70473 71400 71576 73018 72914 73655 73569 74810 74442 75362 68299 70778 72227 74119
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.99 7.06 5.40 0.39 -0.53 2.36 2.94 3.46 3.16 2.78 2.45 2.09 2.32 6.99 3.63 2.05 2.62
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 72720 72205 73488 74257 75452 75783 76233 76917 77738 77818 78106 78661 79613 70980 73167 76096 78081
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.72 3.83 1.71 2.17 3.76 4.96 3.74 3.58 3.03 2.69 2.46 2.27 2.41 1.43 3.08 4.00 2.61
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 60844 58628 59278 58663 61041 61233 61771 61326 63914 64097 64674 64225 66937 56485 59353 61343 64227
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 6.26 4.31 3.92 5.83 0.32 4.44 4.20 4.54 4.71 4.68 4.70 4.73 4.73 3.06 5.08 3.35 4.70
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 50091 50770 51211 50584 51334 51724 52268 51535 52296 52587 53122 52422 53232 49935 50664 51715 52606
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.73 0.12 2.62 2.40 2.48 1.88 2.07 1.88 1.87 1.67 1.63 1.72 1.79 2.56 1.46 2.08 1.72
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 26007 24577 24437 25213 26292 24842 24788 25687 26770 25265 25196 26115 27254 24886 25058 25402 25837
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.41 1.99 -1.07 0.46 1.10 1.08 1.44 1.88 1.82 1.70 1.64 1.67 1.81 4.67 0.69 1.37 1.71
OTHER SERVICES…………………………… 45266 45162 45279 46060 46495 45640 45961 46871 47324 46454 46783 47705 48264 44131 45442 46242 47067

Forecast Data
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.33 3.48 1.59 3.51 2.71 1.06 1.51 1.76 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.78 1.99 2.05 2.97 1.76 1.78
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 45661 46935 48351 45799 46561 47939 49332 46730 47482 48835 50203 47517 48253 45863 46686 47640 48509
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.55 0.84 2.08 1.73 1.97 2.14 2.03 2.03 1.98 1.87 1.77 1.68 1.62 3.54 1.80 2.04 1.82
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 80312 80899 81732 82749 83868 84516 85317 86317 87288 87519 87936 88641 89461 79328 81423 85004 87846
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.82 2.16 2.69 3.88 4.43 4.47 4.39 4.31 4.08 3.55 3.07 2.69 2.49 1.88 2.64 4.40 3.34

|
STATE & LOCAL…………………………… 41315 42565 43921 41233 41917 43247 44591 41866 42550 43896 45254 42483 43171 41554 42258 42905 43546

APPENDIX A
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.97 0.71 1.95 1.20 1.46 1.60 1.53 1.53 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.47 1.46 4.06 1.70 1.53 1.49
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
|
17
18

APPENDIX A
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

|

2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………… 50189 50222 50600 50945 51376 51836 52291 52748 53150 53532 53934 54361 54820 49158 50489 52063 53744

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 5.84 0.26 3.04 2.75 3.43 3.64 3.56 3.54 3.08 2.91 3.04 3.21 3.42 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.97 2.51 2.39 2.96 2.36 3.21 3.34 3.54 3.45 3.27 3.14 3.06 3.14 2.85 2.71 3.12 3.23

Forecast Data
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION…………………………………58987 59616 60146 60861 61591 62341 63073 63823 64503 65198 65911 66618 67507 57891 59902 62707 65558
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 0.80 4.33 3.60 4.84 4.89 4.96 4.78 4.84 4.33 4.38 4.45 4.36 5.44 4.09 3.47 4.68 4.55
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.73 4.37 3.43 3.38 4.41 4.57 4.87 4.87 4.73 4.58 4.50 4.38 4.66 4.09 3.47 4.68 4.55
MANUFACTURING……………………………………… 60558 61116 61342 61828 62574 63349 64126 64910 65629 66365 67095 67859 68564 59519 61211 63740 66737
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 4.90 3.74 1.49 3.20 4.91 5.05 4.99 4.98 4.50 4.57 4.47 4.63 4.22 2.45 2.84 4.13 4.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.35 3.38 2.32 3.33 3.33 3.65 4.54 4.98 4.88 4.76 4.63 4.54 4.47 2.45 2.84 4.13 4.70
DURABLE GOODS…………………………………… 60018 60694 60567 61034 61775 62546 63302 64083 64809 65533 66221 66968 67662 58730 60578 62926 65883
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 8.55 4.58 -0.84 3.12 4.94 5.09 4.92 5.03 4.61 4.54 4.27 4.59 4.21 2.48 3.15 3.88 4.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.58 4.13 2.10 3.80 2.93 3.05 4.52 4.99 4.91 4.77 4.61 4.50 4.40 2.48 3.15 3.88 4.70
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………… 61498 61852 62704 63225 63986 64773 65590 66382 67089 67851 68657 69454 70182 60899 62320 65183 68263
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… -0.99 2.33 5.62 3.37 4.90 5.01 5.14 4.92 4.33 4.62 4.84 4.72 4.26 2.39 2.33 4.59 4.73
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 1.94 2.12 2.72 2.55 4.05 4.72 4.60 4.99 4.85 4.75 4.68 4.63 4.61 2.39 2.33 4.59 4.73
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…………. 46434 46593 46922 47387 47858 48341 48802 49242 49566 49884 50203 50535 50988 45451 46834 48561 50047
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 5.14 1.38 2.86 4.02 4.04 4.10 3.87 3.66 2.66 2.59 2.58 2.68 3.63 2.50 3.04 3.69 3.06
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 3.00 2.82 3.01 3.34 3.07 3.75 4.01 3.92 3.57 3.19 2.87 2.63 2.87 2.50 3.04 3.69 3.06
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………… 71532 71917 72496 73203 73960 74664 75240 75790 76226 76670 77107 77539 78093 71204 72287 74913 76886
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 2.44 2.17 3.26 3.96 4.20 3.86 3.12 2.96 2.32 2.35 2.30 2.26 2.89 0.82 1.52 3.63 2.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… -0.04 0.95 2.23 2.95 3.39 3.82 3.78 3.53 3.06 2.69 2.48 2.31 2.45 0.82 1.52 3.63 2.63
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………… 31873 32015 32183 32466 32718 32991 33249 33497 33608 33715 33816 33934 34196 31000 32134 33114 33768
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 2.07 1.79 2.11 3.57 3.14 3.38 3.17 3.02 1.33 1.27 1.21 1.40 3.13 2.73 3.66 3.05 1.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 3.96 3.78 4.56 2.38 2.65 3.05 3.31 3.18 2.72 2.19 1.71 1.30 1.75 2.73 3.66 3.05 1.98
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………… 56836 56983 57213 57786 58399 59044 59702 60368 61030 61661 62281 62926 63666 55883 57205 59378 61974
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 8.39 1.04 1.62 4.07 4.31 4.49 4.53 4.54 4.46 4.20 4.08 4.21 4.79 3.41 2.36 3.80 4.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.91 2.24 0.61 3.74 2.75 3.62 4.35 4.47 4.51 4.43 4.32 4.24 4.32 3.41 2.36 3.80 4.37
INFORMATION………………………………………… 71729 70324 70516 70783 71347 71986 72589 73235 73601 73991 74371 74769 75307 68441 70838 72289 74183
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 7.10 -7.60 1.10 1.52 3.23 3.63 3.39 3.61 2.01 2.14 2.07 2.16 2.91 6.90 3.50 2.05 2.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.44 6.58 4.86 0.39 -0.53 2.36 2.94 3.46 3.16 2.78 2.45 2.09 2.32 6.90 3.50 2.05 2.62
(current dollars)
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………72432 72234 73654 74382 75154 75815 76406 77046 77430 77851 78283 78793 79298 70986 73176 76105 78089
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… -2.03 -1.09 8.10 4.01 4.22 3.56 3.16 3.39 2.01 2.19 2.24 2.63 2.59 1.40 3.08 4.00 2.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 4.93 3.74 1.62 2.17 3.76 4.96 3.74 3.58 3.03 2.69 2.46 2.27 2.41 1.40 3.08 4.00 2.61
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES………… 60107 58365 59175 59703 60302 60959 61663 62413 63140 63810 64560 65364 66126 56421 59337 61334 64218
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 28.87 -11.10 5.67 3.62 4.07 4.43 4.70 4.96 4.74 4.31 4.79 5.07 4.75 2.94 5.17 3.36 4.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 6.83 4.19 3.84 5.83 0.32 4.44 4.20 4.54 4.71 4.68 4.70 4.73 4.73 2.94 5.17 3.36 4.70
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………… 50084 50638 50781 51087 51326 51590 51830 52047 52288 52450 52676 52942 53223 49932 50648 51698 52589
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 1.54 4.50 1.13 2.43 1.88 2.08 1.87 1.69 1.86 1.25 1.73 2.04 2.14 2.60 1.43 2.07 1.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 0.80 0.19 2.36 2.40 2.48 1.88 2.07 1.88 1.87 1.67 1.63 1.72 1.79 2.60 1.43 2.07 1.72
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………… 24953 25069 25095 25105 25227 25339 25456 25577 25686 25771 25874 26003 26150 24897 25055 25400 25833
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… -0.61 1.86 0.42 0.17 1.96 1.79 1.85 1.92 1.71 1.33 1.62 2.01 2.27 4.76 0.64 1.37 1.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 1.01 1.72 -0.61 0.46 1.10 1.08 1.44 1.88 1.82 1.70 1.64 1.67 1.81 4.76 0.64 1.37 1.71
OTHER SERVICES……………………………………… 44757 45672 45671 45767 45972 46156 46359 46572 46791 46980 47189 47401 47721 44098 45467 46265 47090
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 4.99 8.43 -0.01 0.84 1.81 1.61 1.77 1.85 1.90 1.62 1.79 1.81 2.73 2.02 3.10 1.75 1.78
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 3.14 3.73 2.05 3.51 2.71 1.06 1.51 1.76 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.78 1.99 2.02 3.10 1.75 1.78
GOVERNMENT………………………………………… 46317 46487 46773 46997 47231 47480 47722 47952 48165 48368 48564 48760 48947 45804 46643 47596 48464
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 1.03 1.47 2.48 1.93 2.01 2.13 2.05 1.94 1.79 1.69 1.63 1.62 1.55 3.42 1.83 2.04 1.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 2.83 0.99 1.80 1.73 1.97 2.14 2.03 2.03 1.98 1.87 1.77 1.68 1.62 3.42 1.83 2.04 1.82
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………… 80039 80954 81899 82749 83582 84574 85491 86317 86991 87579 88116 88641 89157 79274 81410 84991 87832
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 1.92 4.65 4.75 4.22 4.09 4.83 4.41 3.92 3.16 2.73 2.48 2.40 2.35 1.81 2.70 4.40 3.34
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 1.47 2.23 3.18 3.88 4.43 4.47 4.39 4.31 4.08 3.55 3.07 2.69 2.49 1.81 2.70 4.40 3.34
STATE & LOCAL……………………………………… 42003 42103 42294 42448 42616 42777 42939 43100 43260 43419 43577 43735 43892 41494 42212 42858 43498
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………… 0.56 0.95 1.83 1.47 1.59 1.52 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.44 3.93 1.73 1.53 1.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………… 3.33 0.86 1.57 1.20 1.46 1.60 1.52 1.53 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.47 1.46 3.93 1.73 1.53 1.49

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
19
20

APPENDIX A
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)……………… 3265 3257 3259 3271 3303 3285 3274 3286 3317 3300 3289 3299 3199 3250 3283 3298

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.14 1.19 1.55 1.62 1.17 0.85 0.47 0.44 0.43 0.48 0.45 0.40 2.04 1.60 1.03 0.45

Forecast Data
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…………… 3157 3132 3147 3144 3190 3158 3163 3161 3205 3175 3178 3175 3080 3135 3164 3180
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.41 0.94 1.24 1.33 1.06 0.85 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.52 0.48 0.44 3.12 1.76 0.94 0.50

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 108 125 112 127 113 127 111 125 112 126 110 125 119 115 119 119
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -5.01 7.85 11.03 9.49 4.60 0.87 -0.82 -1.54 -0.47 -0.55 -0.51 -0.56 -19.70 -2.65 3.51 -0.79

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)……………… 61.3 60.9 60.8 60.9 61.4 60.9 60.5 60.6 61.1 60.6 60.3 60.3 60.6 60.9 60.9 60.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.97 0.04 0.46 0.57 0.16 -0.09 -0.45 -0.47 -0.49 -0.43 -0.45 -0.49 0.84 0.45 0.05 -0.46

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)…………… 3.3 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
 Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3238 3254 3270 3273 3276 3282 3286 3288 3290 3298 3300 3302 3198 3246 3279 3294
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 2.07 2.01 1.95 0.40 0.37 0.68 0.44 0.31 0.27 0.91 0.30 0.15 2.02 1.50 1.02 0.45
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.61 1.38 1.57 1.60 1.18 0.85 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.48 0.45 0.41 2.02 1.50 1.02 0.45

EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 3126 3138 3152 3155 3159 3165 3168 3171 3174 3181 3184 3185 3080 3132 3162 3177
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 1.67 1.54 1.78 0.33 0.58 0.70 0.47 0.35 0.31 0.95 0.32 0.19 3.11 1.71 0.94 0.50
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.93 1.18 1.24 1.33 1.06 0.85 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.52 0.48 0.44 3.11 1.71 0.94 0.50

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…… 112 116 118 119 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 116 118 114 118 117
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 14.06 15.77 6.45 2.26 -5.01 0.11 -0.48 -0.69 -0.82 -0.19 -0.34 -0.87 -20.01 -4.00 3.41 -0.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -6.78 7.19 11.03 9.49 4.60 0.87 -0.82 -1.54 -0.47 -0.55 -0.51 -0.56 -20.01 -4.00 3.41 -0.77

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 60.8 60.9 61.0 60.9 60.9 60.8 60.7 60.7 60.6 60.6 60.5 60.4 60.6 60.8 60.8 60.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 0.98 0.78 0.99 -0.54 -0.56 -0.25 -0.48 -0.59 -0.63 0.01 -0.59 -0.72 0.82 0.36 0.04 -0.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 0.44 0.23 0.48 0.55 0.16 -0.09 -0.46 -0.47 -0.49 -0.42 -0.45 -0.48 0.82 0.36 0.04 -0.46

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)……… 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
|
21
22

APPENDIX A
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
|

History Forecast Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 30967 30758 33176 28909 31517 31240 33742 29432 32160 31811 34375 29943 118225 123242 125408 127778

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.47 3.46 2.41 2.00 1.78 1.57 1.71 1.81 2.04 1.83 1.88 1.74 3.10 4.24 1.76 1.89

Forecast Data
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3134 3223 2976 3054 3151 3230 2981 3066 3170 3252 3007 3093 12142 12361 12415 12495
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.69 2.83 0.41 0.83 0.52 0.21 0.19 0.41 0.61 0.69 0.86 0.87 0.29 1.81 0.44 0.64
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1338 1335 1629 1147 1366 1362 1666 1176 1403 1399 1711 1206 5175 5413 5541 5689
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.48 7.78 1.23 3.23 2.09 2.03 2.25 2.56 2.69 2.72 2.73 2.59 3.34 4.60 2.36 2.68
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 5501 5338 5652 4908 5734 5533 5845 5080 5938 5683 5968 5181 20149 21078 22019 22669
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.42 6.68 3.05 7.00 4.23 3.65 3.41 3.51 3.56 2.71 2.11 1.97 4.26 4.61 4.47 2.95
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3239 3167 3105 2998 3270 3193 3135 3033 3312 3232 3177 3073 12182 12470 12596 12754
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.31 2.32 3.04 1.32 0.97 0.83 0.95 1.15 1.27 1.23 1.34 1.32 0.67 2.36 1.01 1.25
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2894 2975 3182 2812 2907 2998 3228 2874 2979 3075 3312 2949 11438 11882 11945 12240
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.17 1.45 0.07 -0.68 0.46 0.78 1.44 2.19 2.45 2.57 2.63 2.63 3.52 3.89 0.53 2.47
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 220 208 257 202 222 211 260 204 225 213 264 207 856 881 895 907
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.58 0.05 5.27 3.19 1.18 1.01 1.10 1.27 1.39 1.34 1.36 1.23 -8.10 2.88 1.56 1.34
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 962 972 875 711 986 993 894 728 1011 1017 917 746 3412 3486 3584 3673
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.71 2.19 2.63 5.10 2.52 2.06 2.15 2.37 2.51 2.49 2.54 2.42 -1.37 2.16 2.80 2.49
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 9299 9207 10712 8888 9481 9400 10952 9091 9723 9622 11235 9317 35906 37969 38720 39671
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.21 3.93 4.02 1.57 1.95 2.10 2.24 2.28 2.56 2.37 2.58 2.49 2.41 5.75 1.98 2.45
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2352 2313 2734 2226 2416 2348 2772 2256 2451 2383 2813 2286 9322 9592 9762 9903
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.97 2.25 3.69 1.50 2.70 1.54 1.41 1.33 1.48 1.47 1.49 1.35 -1.90 2.89 1.78 1.44
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 2028 2020 2054 1963 1985 1973 2010 1924 1948 1934 1972 1885 7643 8110 7930 7778
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.97 -1.19 -2.76 -2.25 -2.15 -2.33 -2.17 -1.99 -1.84 -1.97 -1.90 -1.99 24.64 6.11 -2.22 -1.92
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4575 4544 4901 4235 4617 4576 4942 4276 4672 4621 4994 4316 17618 18206 18369 18563
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.56 2.56 1.52 1.14 0.92 0.71 0.85 0.97 1.20 1.00 1.04 0.93 2.18 3.34 0.90 1.06

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)

Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 30714 30932 31052 31141 31254 31420 31571 31716 31890 31997 32153 32275 118117 123208 125386 127755
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.72 2.87 1.56 1.15 1.46 2.14 1.94 1.84 2.21 1.36 1.96 1.53 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.57 3.47 2.36 2.07 1.76 1.58 1.67 1.84 2.03 1.84 1.84 1.76 3.04 4.31 1.77 1.89
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3086 3098 3103 3101 3102 3105 3109 3113 3121 3126 3136 3141 12141 12363 12417 12497
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 1.46 1.57 0.58 -0.27 0.19 0.35 0.48 0.60 1.02 0.65 1.19 0.64 0.32 1.83 0.44 0.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.75 2.83 0.41 0.83 0.52 0.21 0.19 0.41 0.61 0.69 0.86 0.87 0.32 1.83 0.44 0.64
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1352 1360 1367 1371 1380 1388 1397 1406 1417 1426 1436 1443 5166 5407 5537 5685
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 7.28 2.51 1.90 1.35 2.61 2.25 2.78 2.60 3.14 2.36 2.82 2.02 3.46 4.66 2.40 2.68
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.73 7.78 1.23 3.23 2.09 2.03 2.25 2.56 2.69 2.72 2.73 2.59 3.46 4.66 2.40 2.68
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 5246 5335 5400 5431 5468 5530 5585 5622 5663 5680 5702 5732 20138 21057 22013 22666
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 14.10 6.97 4.99 2.28 2.77 4.59 4.03 2.67 2.98 1.18 1.61 2.14 4.24 4.57 4.54 2.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.57 6.68 3.05 7.00 4.23 3.65 3.41 3.51 3.56 2.71 2.11 1.97 4.24 4.57 4.54 2.97
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3114 3127 3133 3136 3145 3153 3162 3172 3185 3191 3205 3214 12181 12469 12596 12753
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.50 1.59 0.79 0.41 1.10 1.02 1.26 1.22 1.58 0.88 1.70 1.11 0.66 2.36 1.02 1.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.31 2.32 3.04 1.32 0.97 0.83 0.95 1.15 1.27 1.23 1.34 1.32 0.66 2.36 1.02 1.25
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2964 2968 2969 2964 2977 2991 3012 3029 3050 3068 3091 3109 11421 11885 11944 12238
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -2.81 0.58 0.12 -0.60 1.74 1.88 2.78 2.38 2.77 2.33 3.02 2.38 3.43 4.06 0.50 2.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.29 1.45 0.07 -0.68 0.46 0.78 1.44 2.19 2.45 2.57 2.63 2.63 3.43 4.06 0.50 2.46
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 221 222 222 223 223 224 225 225 226 227 228 228 857 880 894 906
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 9.48 1.86 1.00 0.67 1.19 1.20 1.35 1.35 1.67 0.98 1.46 0.80 -8.42 2.74 1.61 1.34
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.18 0.05 5.27 3.19 1.18 1.01 1.10 1.27 1.39 1.34 1.36 1.23 -8.42 2.74 1.61 1.34
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 871 879 884 888 893 898 903 909 915 920 926 931 3403 3479 3581 3670
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 12.97 4.08 2.11 1.63 2.27 2.24 2.48 2.48 2.85 2.17 2.67 2.01 -1.48 2.24 2.94 2.48
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.38 2.19 2.63 5.10 2.52 2.06 2.15 2.37 2.51 2.49 2.54 2.42 -1.48 2.24 2.94 2.48
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 9459 9512 9545 9602 9643 9712 9759 9820 9890 9942 10011 10065 35860 37969 38715 39663
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 0.25 2.26 1.39 2.39 1.76 2.86 1.95 2.54 2.88 2.11 2.81 2.16 2.31 5.88 1.96 2.45
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.37 3.93 4.02 1.57 1.95 2.10 2.24 2.28 2.56 2.37 2.58 2.49 2.31 5.88 1.96 2.45
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2372 2406 2418 2429 2436 2443 2452 2461 2472 2479 2489 2494 9313 9589 9760 9901

Forecast Data
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -3.43 5.88 2.02 1.74 1.24 1.15 1.50 1.41 1.84 1.12 1.58 0.85 -2.02 2.96 1.78 1.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.95 2.25 3.69 1.50 2.70 1.54 1.41 1.33 1.48 1.47 1.49 1.35 -2.02 2.96 1.78 1.44
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 2030 2025 2011 1998 1986 1978 1968 1958 1950 1939 1930 1919 7636 8109 7929 7776
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -2.63 -0.99 -2.67 -2.68 -2.25 -1.70 -2.04 -1.95 -1.65 -2.25 -1.75 -2.32 24.53 6.19 -2.22 -1.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.77 -1.19 -2.76 -2.25 -2.15 -2.33 -2.17 -1.99 -1.84 -1.97 -1.90 -1.99 24.53 6.19 -2.22 -1.92

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PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4537 4569 4587 4561 4578 4602 4624 4608 4633 4648 4671 4652 17602 18201 18366 18560

APPENDIX A
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.72 2.87 1.56 -2.22 1.46 2.14 1.94 -1.45 2.21 1.36 1.96 -1.66 2.13 3.40 0.91 1.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.66 2.57 1.47 1.21 0.90 0.72 0.81 1.01 1.20 1.00 1.01 0.95 2.13 3.40 0.91 1.05
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Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
23
 Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

24

APPENDIX A
2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
|

TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 33461 33365 36206 31760 34819 34696 37662 33009 36214 36020 39090 34245 125444 133506 138938 144333
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.76 5.72 4.58 4.22 4.06 3.99 4.02 3.93 4.00 3.82 3.79 3.75 4.92 6.43 4.07 3.88
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3387 3496 3247 3355 3481 3587 3328 3439 3569 3682 3419 3538 12879 13387 13750 14110

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% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.90 5.08 2.54 3.02 2.77 2.60 2.47 2.50 2.55 2.65 2.76 2.86 2.05 3.94 2.72 2.62

Forecast Data
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1446 1448 1778 1260 1509 1513 1859 1319 1580 1584 1946 1380 5493 5866 6141 6429
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 10.86 10.14 3.37 5.48 4.38 4.46 4.58 4.70 4.67 4.72 4.66 4.61 5.15 6.80 4.69 4.69
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 5944 5791 6168 5392 6334 6145 6524 5698 6686 6435 6786 5925 21378 22835 24395 25605
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.76 9.01 5.23 9.32 6.57 6.12 5.77 5.67 5.56 4.72 4.02 3.99 6.10 6.81 6.83 4.96
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3500 3435 3389 3294 3613 3546 3499 3401 3729 3660 3612 3514 12922 13505 13952 14403
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.53 4.55 5.22 3.52 3.24 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.22 3.21 3.25 3.32 2.44 4.52 3.31 3.23
FOOD STORES………………………………… 3127 3227 3472 3089 3212 3330 3603 3223 3354 3482 3767 3373 12137 12871 13234 13826
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.48 3.66 2.18 1.48 2.71 3.18 3.75 4.33 4.42 4.57 4.55 4.65 5.36 6.05 2.82 4.47
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 237 226 281 222 246 234 290 229 254 242 300 237 909 955 992 1025
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.81 2.24 7.50 5.43 3.45 3.42 3.40 3.38 3.34 3.31 3.27 3.22 -6.45 5.05 3.87 3.32
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 1039 1055 955 781 1089 1102 998 817 1138 1152 1043 853 3620 3777 3971 4149
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.94 4.42 4.80 7.38 4.82 4.50 4.48 4.50 4.49 4.49 4.47 4.45 0.36 4.32 5.14 4.49
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 10048 9987 11690 9765 10474 10440 12224 10196 10949 10896 12776 10656 38103 41135 42903 44815
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.54 6.20 6.22 3.78 4.24 4.53 4.57 4.41 4.53 4.37 4.51 4.51 4.23 7.96 4.30 4.46
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2542 2509 2983 2446 2669 2608 3094 2530 2760 2698 3199 2614 9892 10392 10817 11187
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.18 4.48 5.88 3.71 5.01 3.96 3.72 3.44 3.43 3.45 3.39 3.35 -0.16 5.05 4.09 3.43
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 2192 2191 2242 2156 2193 2191 2243 2158 2194 2190 2242 2156 8111 8784 8783 8783
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 11.36 0.97 -0.70 -0.12 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 26.90 8.29 0.00 0.00
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4943 4929 5349 4652 5100 5082 5517 4795 5261 5233 5679 4936 18694 19722 20351 20968
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.83 4.80 3.67 3.34 3.18 3.11 3.14 3.08 3.15 2.97 2.94 2.92 3.99 5.50 3.19 3.03

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
 Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)

Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) January 2019

History Forecast Data Annual

2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2018:4 2019:1 2019:2 2019:3 2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 32804 33187 33554 33889 34212 34529 34897 35240 35571 35909 36231 36562 36912 125303 133435 138877 144273
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 4.80 4.75 4.49 4.04 3.88 3.75 4.33 3.99 3.81 3.86 3.63 3.71 3.88 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.03 6.86 5.73 4.52 4.29 4.04 4.00 3.99 3.97 4.00 3.82 3.75 3.77 4.86 6.49 4.08 3.89
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3307 3335 3361 3386 3407 3427 3449 3470 3492 3515 3540 3566 3592 12879 13389 13752 14112
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 0.50 3.47 3.17 3.04 2.42 2.46 2.50 2.51 2.54 2.65 2.91 2.93 2.97 2.08 3.96 2.72 2.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.35 2.96 5.08 2.54 3.02 2.77 2.60 2.47 2.50 2.55 2.65 2.76 2.86 2.08 3.96 2.72 2.62
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1428 1461 1476 1492 1507 1525 1541 1560 1577 1596 1614 1632 1650 5481 5856 6133 6420
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -4.00 9.40 4.12 4.40 4.09 4.93 4.44 4.85 4.58 4.80 4.66 4.59 4.39 5.28 6.85 4.72 4.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.26 11.11 10.14 3.37 5.48 4.38 4.46 4.58 4.70 4.67 4.72 4.66 4.61 5.28 6.85 4.72 4.69
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 5458 5668 5787 5894 5966 6041 6142 6234 6305 6377 6431 6484 6556 21363 22807 24382 25597
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -9.84 16.35 8.66 7.56 5.03 5.09 6.83 6.13 4.65 4.64 3.45 3.35 4.50 6.09 6.76 6.91 4.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.00 8.90 9.01 5.23 9.32 6.57 6.12 5.77 5.67 5.56 4.72 4.02 3.99 6.09 6.76 6.91 4.98
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3328 3365 3392 3419 3445 3474 3501 3530 3558 3586 3614 3645 3676 12921 13504 13951 14402
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 10.07 4.53 3.19 3.26 3.11 3.39 3.18 3.30 3.17 3.22 3.14 3.45 3.45 2.44 4.51 3.31 3.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.74 3.53 4.55 5.22 3.52 3.24 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.22 3.21 3.25 3.32 2.44 4.51 3.31 3.23
FOOD STORES………………………………… 3209 3202 3219 3240 3257 3289 3322 3362 3398 3435 3474 3515 3556 12117 12871 13229 13820
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 4.96 -0.88 2.17 2.57 2.08 4.04 4.06 4.85 4.36 4.43 4.63 4.79 4.75 5.26 6.22 2.78 4.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.04 7.60 3.66 2.18 1.48 2.71 3.18 3.75 4.33 4.42 4.57 4.55 4.65 5.26 6.22 2.78 4.47
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 232 238 240 242 244 247 249 251 253 255 257 259 261 909 953 990 1023
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 11.73 11.64 3.47 3.47 3.38 3.48 3.36 3.39 3.31 3.31 3.25 3.20 3.13 -6.78 4.90 3.91 3.33
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.67 3.40 2.24 7.50 5.43 3.45 3.42 3.40 3.38 3.34 3.31 3.27 3.22 -6.78 4.90 3.91 3.33
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 908 941 954 965 975 986 997 1008 1019 1030 1042 1053 1064 3610 3768 3966 4144
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -5.32 15.20 5.72 4.61 4.36 4.59 4.43 4.54 4.46 4.51 4.47 4.44 4.37 0.26 4.38 5.27 4.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.72 3.60 4.42 4.80 7.38 4.82 4.50 4.48 4.50 4.49 4.49 4.47 4.45 0.26 4.38 5.27 4.49
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 10164 10221 10318 10417 10548 10654 10786 10893 11014 11137 11257 11384 11511 38042 41120 42881 44791
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 15.41 2.23 3.88 3.87 5.15 4.06 5.06 4.01 4.52 4.54 4.40 4.58 4.53 4.12 8.09 4.28 4.45
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 11.49 8.70 6.20 6.22 3.78 4.24 4.53 4.57 4.41 4.53 4.37 4.51 4.51 4.12 8.09 4.28 4.45
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2573 2563 2610 2639 2668 2691 2714 2737 2760 2784 2807 2830 2852 9879 10385 10811 11181
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 13.52 -1.51 7.55 4.52 4.48 3.53 3.31 3.55 3.37 3.49 3.39 3.33 3.19 -0.28 5.12 4.09 3.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 10.39 0.20 4.48 5.88 3.71 5.01 3.96 3.72 3.44 3.43 3.45 3.39 3.35 -0.28 5.12 4.09 3.43
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 2197 2193 2196 2195 2195 2194 2197 2196 2196 2196 2195 2195 2195 8103 8782 8782 8781

Forecast Data
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -2.36 -0.71 0.57 -0.28 -0.06 -0.04 0.40 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 26.78 8.38 0.00 0.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 25.98 11.16 0.97 -0.70 -0.12 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 26.78 8.38 0.00 0.00
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4846 4903 4957 5006 5011 5058 5112 5162 5168 5217 5264 5312 5320 18673 19712 20342 20960
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 1.20 4.75 4.49 4.04 0.41 3.75 4.33 3.99 0.45 3.86 3.63 3.71 0.62 3.94 5.56 3.20 3.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.08 5.93 4.81 3.61 3.41 3.16 3.12 3.11 3.12 3.15 2.97 2.90 2.95 3.94 5.56 3.20 3.03

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Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

APPENDIX A
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25
 Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
Forecast Data
26

APPENDIX A
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
TN GDP (Mil2012$) SAAR………………………………………… 307025 315083 321103 326319 331849 337367 342950 348860 354937 361166 367671
|

Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.71 2.62 1.91 1.62 1.69 1.66 1.65 1.72 1.74 1.75 1.80
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

US GDP (Bil2012$) SAAR………………………………………… 18575 19082 19480 19789 20086 20369 20669 21015 21398 21805 22237
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.90 2.73 2.08 1.59 1.50 1.41 1.47 1.68 1.82 1.90 1.98

|
TN GDP (Mil$) SAAR…………………………………………….. 363291 382747 399751 416327 433970 451930 470295 489287 509344 530482 552939

Forecast Data
Percentage change……………………………………………… 5.16 5.36 4.44 4.15 4.24 4.14 4.06 4.04 4.10 4.15 4.23
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR…………………………………………….. 20504 21555 22537 23472 24420 25367 26341 27388 28517 29726 31030
Percentage change……………………………………………… 5.23 5.13 4.56 4.15 4.04 3.88 3.84 3.98 4.12 4.24 4.39
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR……................... 294246 299962 307366 314096 319874 324917 329842 335255 341082 347093 353253
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.10 1.94 2.47 2.19 1.84 1.58 1.52 1.64 1.74 1.76 1.77
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR…………............. 16237 16592 17076 17456 17800 18134 18465 18850 19273 19724 20205
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.33 2.19 2.91 2.23 1.97 1.88 1.82 2.08 2.25 2.34 2.44
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……………………...... 318668 332239 347110 362229 376904 391208 405709 420784 436597 453112 470322
Percentage change……………………………………………… 4.25 4.26 4.48 4.36 4.05 3.80 3.71 3.72 3.76 3.78 3.80
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……………………...... 17585 18378 19284 20131 20974 21834 22712 23659 24671 25749 26901
Percentage change……………………………………………… 4.48 4.51 4.93 4.39 4.19 4.10 4.02 4.17 4.28 4.37 4.47
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)………………………………… 3063.8 3106.7 3135.4 3157.0 3173.3 3187.1 3198.4 3211.2 3229.1 3250.8 3272.9
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.75 1.40 0.92 0.69 0.52 0.44 0.35 0.40 0.56 0.67 0.68
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)……………………………………… 149.0 151.3 153.0 153.8 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.5 156.2 156.9 157.7
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.63 1.53 1.12 0.56 0.43 0.26 0.15 0.25 0.40 0.49 0.53
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)………………………………………… 352.3 358.0 360.1 361.6 361.9 362.3 362.0 361.3 360.7 359.8 358.7
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.00 1.61 0.60 0.40 0.08 0.13 -0.09 -0.19 -0.19 -0.23 -0.32
US MFG JOBS (MIL)……………………………………………… 12.7 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.11 1.67 -0.44 -1.16 -0.66 -0.20 -0.15 -0.01 0.21 -0.22 -0.63
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)…………………………….... 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………………………. 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2012=100.0)……………....... 110.3 113.0 115.7 118.6 121.6 124.5 127.4 130.3 133.3 136.3 139.5
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.24 2.36 2.43 2.52 2.50 2.44 2.33 2.26 2.26 2.29 2.35
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)……………............ 108.3 110.8 112.9 115.3 117.8 120.4 123.0 125.5 128.0 130.5 133.1
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.10 2.27 1.96 2.12 2.17 2.18 2.16 2.04 1.99 1.98 1.99
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)…… 2.513 2.576 2.625 2.683 2.745 2.809 2.874 2.937 2.999 3.064 3.132
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.51 2.53 1.90 2.22 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.18 2.12 2.18 2.21
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)…………………………… 4.9 5.9 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)……………………… 1.825 2.808 3.365 3.420 3.429 3.298 3.049 2.932 2.797 2.682 2.680
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)……………………… 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$)……………………………… 123208 125386 127755 129819 131772 133603 135331 137364 139537 141757 143908
Percentage change……………………………………………… 4.31 1.77 1.89 1.62 1.50 1.39 1.29 1.50 1.58 1.59 1.52
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)……………………………………… 133435 138877 144273 149711 155265 160860 166458 172407 178613 185055 191599
Percentage change……………………………………………… 6.49 4.08 3.89 3.77 3.71 3.60 3.48 3.57 3.60 3.61 3.54
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2012$)……………..... 46621 47006 47592 48131 48393 48338 48288 48299 48311 48285 48234
Percentage change……………………………………………… 0.60 0.83 1.25 1.13 0.55 -0.11 -0.10 0.02 0.02 -0.05 -0.10
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)………………......... 50489 52063 53744 55505 57020 58198 59393 60619 61838 63031 64218
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.71 3.12 3.23 3.28 2.73 2.07 2.05 2.07 2.01 1.93 1.88
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

TN GDP (2012$) SAAR………………………… 45753 46545 47034 47407 47827 48247 48677 49154 49654 50175 50733
Percentage change………………………… 1.80 1.73 1.05 0.79 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.11

US GDP (2012$) SAAR………………….……… 56528 57653 58439 58953 59428 59857 60334 60944 61657 62435 63283
Percentage change................................. 2.18 1.99 1.36 0.88 0.81 0.72 0.80 1.01 1.17 1.26 1.36

TN GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 54138 56541 58554 60483 62545 64630 66751 68939 71255 73697 76297
Percentage change………………………… 4.24 4.44 3.56 3.29 3.41 3.33 3.28 3.28 3.36 3.43 3.53

US GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 62400 65123 67612 69926 72249 74543 76891 79427 82170 85116 88304
Percentage change................................. 4.49 4.36 3.82 3.42 3.32 3.17 3.15 3.30 3.45 3.58 3.74

TN PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR……. 43467 43938 44654 45269 45745 46117 46474 46900 47385 47894 48421
Percentage change................................. 1.22 1.08 1.63 1.38 1.05 0.81 0.77 0.92 1.03 1.07 1.10

US PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR…… 49414 50130 51228 52003 52664 53289 53901 54665 55535 56477 57498
Percentage change................................. 1.61 1.45 2.19 1.51 1.27 1.19 1.15 1.42 1.59 1.70 1.81

TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………… 47075 48666 50428 52206 53901 55526 57163 58866 60654 62523 64467
Percentage change................................. 3.34 3.38 3.62 3.53 3.25 3.02 2.95 2.98 3.04 3.08 3.11

US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………. 53516 55525 57851 59972 62054 64162 66299 68612 71088 73728 76554
Percentage change................................. 3.74 3.75 4.19 3.67 3.47 3.40 3.33 3.49 3.61 3.71 3.83

TN TAXABLE SALES (2012$)………………… 18201 18366 18560 18710 18845 18963 19068 19217 19385 19560 19726
Percentage change................................. 3.40 0.91 1.05 0.81 0.72 0.63 0.55 0.78 0.88 0.90 0.84

TN TAXABLE SALES ($)……………………… 19712 20342 20960 21577 22204 22832 23454 24119 24814 25535 26263
Percentage change................................. 5.56 3.20 3.03 2.94 2.91 2.83 2.72 2.84 2.88 2.91 2.85
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
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APPENDIX A
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27
28

APPENDIX A
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
|

Forecast Data
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...…………… 294246 299962 307366 314096 319874 324917 329842 335255 341082 347093 353253

|
Percentage change………………………… 2.10 1.94 2.47 2.19 1.84 1.58 1.52 1.64 1.74 1.76 1.77

Forecast Data
WAGES AND SALARIES……………………… 143608 146881 150075 152823 154432 155049 155496 156195 157185 158141 159055
Percentage change………………………… 2.31 2.28 2.17 1.83 1.05 0.40 0.29 0.45 0.63 0.61 0.58

OTHER LABOR INCOME…………………… 32150 32273 32627 33112 33665 34206 34739 35345 36008 36697 37411
Percentage change………………………… 0.99 0.38 1.10 1.49 1.67 1.61 1.56 1.74 1.88 1.91 1.95

PROPRIETORS INCOME…………………… 42101 42763 43846 44578 45101 45912 46763 47553 48449 49527 50738
Percentage change………………………… 2.87 1.57 2.53 1.67 1.17 1.80 1.85 1.69 1.88 2.22 2.45

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……………… 43472 44260 46100 47756 49069 50131 51079 52200 53323 54429 55551
Percentage change………………………… 2.45 1.81 4.16 3.59 2.75 2.16 1.89 2.19 2.15 2.07 2.06

TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………………… 57748 58751 59908 61222 63193 65397 67712 70084 72406 74737 77065
Percentage change………………………… 1.68 1.74 1.97 2.19 3.22 3.49 3.54 3.50 3.31 3.22 3.11

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS………… 22956 23063 23247 23416 23573 23728 23861 23998 24129 24238 24330
Percentage change………………………… 2.60 0.46 0.80 0.73 0.67 0.66 0.56 0.57 0.54 0.46 0.38

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT………………… -1878 -1902 -1942 -1979 -2015 -2050 -2086 -2123 -2162 -2199 -2237
Percentage change………………………… 4.09 1.31 2.09 1.90 1.81 1.76 1.74 1.80 1.81 1.75 1.69

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)………… 43467 43938 44654 45269 45745 46117 46474 46900 47385 47894 48421
Percentage change………………………… 1.22 1.08 1.63 1.38 1.05 0.81 0.77 0.92 1.03 1.07 1.10

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...…………… 318668 332239 347110 362229 376904 391208 405709 420784 436597 453112 470322
Percentage change………………………… 4.25 4.26 4.48 4.36 4.05 3.80 3.71 3.72 3.76 3.78 3.80

WAGES AND SALARIES……………………… 155528 162686 169479 176241 181962 186679 191257 196039 201200 206441 211762
Percentage change………………………… 4.45 4.60 4.18 3.99 3.25 2.59 2.45 2.50 2.63 2.61 2.58

OTHER LABOR INCOME…………………… 34817 35745 36845 38185 39668 41185 42730 44362 46091 47906 49810
Percentage change………………………… 3.11 2.66 3.08 3.64 3.88 3.83 3.75 3.82 3.90 3.94 3.97

PROPRIETORS INCOME…………………… 45595 47364 49515 51408 53142 55279 57519 59685 62017 64655 67554
Percentage change………………………… 5.02 3.88 4.54 3.82 3.37 4.02 4.05 3.77 3.91 4.25 4.48

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……………… 47080 49023 52062 55075 57819 60360 62829 65518 68256 71055 73961
Percentage change………………………… 4.60 4.13 6.20 5.79 4.98 4.40 4.09 4.28 4.18 4.10 4.09

TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………………… 62542 65071 67654 70604 74462 78742 83289 87966 92685 97567 102606
Percentage change………………………… 3.81 4.04 3.97 4.36 5.46 5.75 5.77 5.62 5.36 5.27 5.16

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS………… 24861 25544 26252 27004 27775 28569 29349 30120 30885 31641 32393
Percentage change………………………… 4.75 2.75 2.77 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.73 2.63 2.54 2.45 2.37

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT………………… -2033 -2107 -2193 -2282 -2374 -2468 -2565 -2665 -2767 -2871 -2978
Percentage change………………………… 6.26 3.61 4.09 4.06 4.02 3.98 3.93 3.88 3.83 3.77 3.71

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)………… 47075 48666 50428 52206 53901 55526 57163 58866 60654 62523 64467
Percentage change………………………… 3.34 3.38 3.62 3.53 3.25 3.02 2.95 2.98 3.04 3.08 3.11

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
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29
 Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
30

APPENDIX A
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 3063.8 3106.7 3135.4 3157.0 3173.3 3187.1 3198.4 3211.2 3229.1 3250.8 3272.9
|

Percentage change………..……………… 1.75 1.40 0.92 0.69 0.52 0.44 0.35 0.40 0.56 0.67 0.68
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING

AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 126.2 128.9 132.4 136.2 138.9 141.0 143.1 145.6 148.4 151.0 153.5

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Percentage change………..……………… 1.66 2.14 2.74 2.86 1.94 1.58 1.48 1.74 1.92 1.74 1.68

Forecast Data
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 352.3 358.0 360.1 361.6 361.9 362.3 362.0 361.3 360.7 359.8 358.7
Percentage change………..……………… 1.00 1.61 0.60 0.40 0.08 0.13 -0.09 -0.19 -0.19 -0.23 -0.32
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 224.6 229.7 231.6 232.9 233.5 234.5 234.8 234.8 234.9 234.9 234.4
Percentage change………..……………… 1.18 2.24 0.82 0.59 0.25 0.41 0.12 0.04 0.04 -0.03 -0.18
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 127.7 128.3 128.6 128.6 128.3 127.9 127.3 126.5 125.7 125.0 124.2
Percentage change………..……………… 0.67 0.50 0.19 0.05 -0.22 -0.38 -0.46 -0.61 -0.60 -0.61 -0.59
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 629.4 635.8 634.2 631.7 627.3 623.2 619.1 616.1 614.6 613.5 612.0
Percentage change………..……………… 1.23 1.03 -0.26 -0.38 -0.71 -0.64 -0.66 -0.49 -0.24 -0.17 -0.25
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 122.4 123.5 123.3 122.7 121.7 121.2 120.5 120.1 119.3 118.5 117.9
Percentage change………..……………… 0.98 0.94 -0.15 -0.49 -0.83 -0.44 -0.55 -0.31 -0.67 -0.71 -0.48
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 334.2 334.9 333.4 332.1 329.9 326.9 323.8 321.1 319.8 319.3 318.7
Percentage change………..……………… -0.30 0.22 -0.47 -0.37 -0.66 -0.93 -0.95 -0.81 -0.41 -0.15 -0.19
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 172.8 177.4 177.5 176.8 175.6 175.2 174.8 174.8 175.4 175.7 175.3
Percentage change………..……………… 4.53 2.65 0.05 -0.35 -0.70 -0.25 -0.21 -0.02 0.37 0.16 -0.21
INFORMATION…………………………………… 45.7 45.5 45.5 45.8 46.1 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.4 43.8 43.1
Percentage change………..……………… 0.40 -0.53 0.09 0.71 0.53 -0.07 -1.11 -1.10 -1.46 -1.35 -1.52
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 161.2 163.4 165.6 166.5 166.4 166.2 165.8 165.5 165.2 164.8 164.9
Percentage change………..……………… 1.95 1.36 1.35 0.51 -0.03 -0.16 -0.22 -0.20 -0.18 -0.22 0.08
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 416.7 427.6 439.0 445.0 450.7 456.9 463.2 472.0 482.8 493.4 504.0
Percentage change………..……………… 2.39 2.61 2.68 1.37 1.29 1.38 1.37 1.91 2.28 2.21 2.14
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 439.8 449.1 456.8 465.0 473.1 480.8 488.5 496.0 503.6 511.9 520.8
Percentage change………..……………… 1.83 2.11 1.72 1.79 1.74 1.64 1.58 1.54 1.54 1.65 1.74
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 345.1 349.9 351.9 353.6 355.8 356.4 355.9 354.2 353.0 353.7 354.6
Percentage change………..……………… 4.74 1.39 0.58 0.48 0.62 0.17 -0.13 -0.49 -0.34 0.20 0.26
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)

OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 115.6 117.0 117.8 118.8 118.7 117.6 116.6 115.4 114.7 114.6 114.8
Percentage change………..……………… 1.36 1.23 0.66 0.91 -0.08 -0.92 -0.85 -1.04 -0.61 -0.09 0.14
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 432.5 434.3 434.8 435.6 437.3 439.3 441.4 442.9 444.7 447.1 449.3
Percentage change………..……………… 0.47 0.42 0.12 0.17 0.40 0.46 0.48 0.35 0.39 0.55 0.48
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 48.9 48.8 48.7 48.6 48.4 48.3 48.0 47.9 47.8 47.6 47.5
Percentage change………..……………… -0.45 -0.08 -0.28 -0.28 -0.42 -0.22 -0.48 -0.29 -0.21 -0.31 -0.33
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 383.6 385.5 386.1 387.0 388.9 391.0 393.4 395.0 396.9 399.5 401.8
Percentage change………..……………… 0.59 0.48 0.17 0.23 0.51 0.54 0.60 0.42 0.46 0.66 0.58

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennes Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………… 224.6 229.7 231.6 232.9 233.5 234.5 234.8 234.8 234.9 234.9 234.4
Percentage change………..…………… 1.18 2.24 0.82 0.59 0.25 0.41 0.12 0.04 0.04 -0.03 -0.18

WOOD PRODUCTS………………………… 12.6 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7
Percentage change………..…………… 0.57 3.90 1.36 0.67 0.50 0.67 0.40 0.32 0.25 0.18 0.17

NONMETALLIC MINERALS……………… 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.6
Percentage change………..…………… 2.33 2.27 0.79 0.13 0.27 0.73 0.22 0.40 0.33 -0.21 -0.28

PRIMARY METALS………….……………… 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5
Percentage change………..…………… -2.22 1.05 0.79 0.43 0.24 0.06 -0.08 -0.13 -0.13 -0.17 -0.18

FABRICATED METALS…………………... 36.3 37.2 37.7 38.0 37.9 38.2 38.3 38.2 38.2 37.9 37.5
Percentage change………..…………… 2.08 2.44 1.32 0.88 -0.20 0.69 0.22 -0.15 -0.11 -0.68 -1.15

MACHINERY………………………………… 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2
Percentage change………..…………… 2.79 0.80 0.34 0.18 0.48 0.61 0.42 0.29 0.36 0.48 -0.27

COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS………… 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3
Percentage change………..…………… -0.89 -1.89 -3.40 -2.92 -3.30 -3.69 -3.64 -3.74 -4.29 -4.68 -4.22

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..…………… 19.3 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2
Percentage change………..…………… 0.38 1.03 -0.08 0.02 0.08 0.53 -0.24 -0.57 -0.66 -0.48 -0.44

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT……… 75.2 77.6 78.5 79.3 79.9 80.5 80.9 81.2 81.5 81.9 82.2
Percentage change………..…………… 0.83 3.18 1.14 1.07 0.71 0.74 0.47 0.35 0.39 0.46 0.48

FURNITURE………………………………… 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..…………… 0.44 1.66 0.61 0.37 0.17 -0.56 -0.39 -0.27 -0.13 -0.04 0.01

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………… 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.5
Percentage change………..…………… 2.09 2.20 0.97 0.49 -0.28 -0.87 -0.88 -0.12 -0.25 -0.17 -0.23

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee see Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
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31
32

APPENDIX A
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 127.7 128.3 128.6 128.6 128.3 127.9 127.3 126.5 125.7 125.0 124.2

|
Percentage change………..………………… 0.67 0.50 0.19 0.05 -0.22 -0.38 -0.46 -0.61 -0.60 -0.61 -0.59

Forecast Data
FOOD……………………………………………… 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.2 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.9
Percentage change………..………………… 1.12 0.32 0.48 0.61 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.34 0.37 0.14 0.18

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO……………………… 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1
Percentage change………..………………… 7.97 3.09 1.44 0.99 0.69 0.73 0.61 0.23 -0.14 -0.07 -0.09

PAPER…………………………………………… 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4
Percentage change………..………………… 0.04 0.23 0.03 -0.02 -0.22 -0.09 -0.16 -0.21 -0.16 -0.19 -0.31

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………… 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3
Percentage change………..………………… -0.83 -1.16 -1.64 -1.50 -0.53 -0.04 -0.32 -0.87 -0.72 -0.63 -0.66

CHEMICALS……………………………………… 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.0
Percentage change………..………………… 0.22 -0.20 -0.74 -0.69 -1.59 -1.44 -1.38 -1.94 -1.68 -1.48 -1.37

PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………… 25.0 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.2
Percentage change………..………………… 2.39 2.81 1.56 0.68 0.57 -0.51 -0.82 -0.74 -0.92 -0.85 -0.82

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS… 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3
Percentage change………..………………… -5.70 -2.58 -1.03 -0.96 -1.65 -1.75 -1.64 -1.71 -1.84 -1.85 -1.95

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
 Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) January 2019
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 46621 47006 47592 48131 48393 48338 48288 48299 48311 48285 48234
Percentage change………..……………… 0.60 0.83 1.25 1.13 0.55 -0.11 -0.10 0.02 0.02 -0.05 -0.10
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 55312 56615 58051 59698 60660 60631 60607 60631 60665 60676 60662
Percentage change………..……………… 1.35 2.36 2.54 2.84 1.61 -0.05 -0.04 0.04 0.06 0.02 -0.02
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 56521 57547 59096 60385 61048 61200 61378 61587 61855 62117 62313
Percentage change………..……………… 0.73 1.82 2.69 2.18 1.10 0.25 0.29 0.34 0.43 0.42 0.32
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 55937 56813 58339 59585 60259 60499 60707 60933 61168 61489 61725
Percentage change………..……………… 1.03 1.56 2.69 2.14 1.13 0.40 0.34 0.37 0.39 0.52 0.38
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 57544 58850 60447 61825 62474 62479 62608 62798 63133 63291 63416
Percentage change………..……………… 0.23 2.27 2.71 2.28 1.05 0.01 0.21 0.30 0.53 0.25 0.20
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 43245 43844 44318 44791 45037 44909 44791 44741 44649 44513 44369
Percentage change………..……………… 0.93 1.38 1.08 1.07 0.55 -0.28 -0.26 -0.11 -0.21 -0.30 -0.32
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 66748 67637 68084 68392 68566 68607 68696 68944 69116 69248 69365
Percentage change………..……………… -0.57 1.33 0.66 0.45 0.25 0.06 0.13 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.17
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 29672 29897 29903 29998 30091 29910 29732 29583 29444 29300 29149
Percentage change………..……………… 1.53 0.76 0.02 0.32 0.31 -0.60 -0.59 -0.50 -0.47 -0.49 -0.51
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 52822 53610 54879 56196 56811 56507 56206 55957 55727 55484 55228
Percentage change………..……………… 0.26 1.49 2.37 2.40 1.09 -0.53 -0.53 -0.44 -0.41 -0.44 -0.46
INFORMATION…………………………………… 65414 65268 65691 66012 66353 66458 66554 66697 66845 66962 67048
Percentage change………..……………… 1.39 -0.22 0.65 0.49 0.52 0.16 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.13
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 67568 68713 69150 69424 69567 69596 69608 69668 69736 69776 69785
Percentage change………..……………… 0.97 1.69 0.64 0.40 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.01
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54793 55375 56865 58366 59213 59346 59459 59610 59763 59888 59983
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..……………… 3.01 1.06 2.69 2.64 1.45 0.22 0.19 0.25 0.26 0.21 0.16
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 46767 46678 46570 46500 46377 46204 46025 45881 45747 45599 45437
Percentage change………..……………… -0.65 -0.19 -0.23 -0.15 -0.26 -0.37 -0.39 -0.31 -0.29 -0.32 -0.36
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 23136 22933 22876 22947 23065 22997 22926 22875 22829 22776 22716
Percentage change………..……………… -1.43 -0.88 -0.25 0.31 0.52 -0.30 -0.31 -0.22 -0.20 -0.23 -0.26

Forecast Data
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 41983 41772 41700 41717 41696 41565 41430 41331 41241 41140 41025
Percentage change………..……………… 0.99 -0.50 -0.17 0.04 -0.05 -0.31 -0.32 -0.24 -0.22 -0.25 -0.28
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 43070 42974 42917 42694 42401 42063 41722 41428 41135 40836 40519
Percentage change………..……………… -0.26 -0.22 -0.13 -0.52 -0.69 -0.80 -0.81 -0.70 -0.71 -0.73 -0.78

|
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 75170 76734 77777 77989 78027 78000 77954 77962 77981 77971 77928

APPENDIX A
Percentage change………..……………… 0.58 2.08 1.36 0.27 0.05 -0.03 -0.06 0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.05
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 38978 38696 38519 38263 37971 37658 37341 37053 36773 36480 36176
|

Percentage change………..……………… -0.36 -0.72 -0.46 -0.66 -0.76 -0.82 -0.84 -0.77 -0.76 -0.79 -0.84
33

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) January 2019
34

APPENDIX A
Forecast Data
|

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………….. 50489 52063 53744 55505 57020 58198 59393 60619 61838 63031 64218
Percentage change………..………………………………. 2.71 3.12 3.23 3.28 2.73 2.07 2.05 2.07 2.01 1.93 1.88

|
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION…… 59902 62707 65558 68848 71473 72999 74545 76097 77652 79208 80763

Forecast Data
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.47 4.68 4.55 5.02 3.81 2.14 2.12 2.08 2.04 2.00 1.96
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 61211 63740 66737 69639 71931 73685 75493 77298 79175 81088 82961
Percentage change………..………………………………. 2.84 4.13 4.70 4.35 3.29 2.44 2.45 2.39 2.43 2.42 2.31
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………...... 60578 62926 65883 68716 71002 72841 74669 76476 78296 80269 82180
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.15 3.88 4.70 4.30 3.33 2.59 2.51 2.42 2.38 2.52 2.38
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………….. 62320 65183 68263 71299 73610 75224 77007 78817 80811 82621 84430
Percentage change………..………………………………. 2.33 4.59 4.73 4.45 3.24 2.19 2.37 2.35 2.53 2.24 2.19
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…………. 46834 48561 50047 51654 53065 54070 55092 56153 57150 58107 59071
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.04 3.69 3.06 3.21 2.73 1.89 1.89 1.93 1.78 1.67 1.66
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………. 72287 74913 76886 78870 80788 82603 84495 86531 88469 90398 92350
Percentage change………..………………………………. 1.52 3.63 2.63 2.58 2.43 2.25 2.29 2.41 2.24 2.18 2.16
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………. 32134 33114 33768 34595 35455 36011 36569 37129 37688 38248 38808
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.66 3.05 1.98 2.45 2.49 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.48 1.46
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………… 57205 59378 61974 64808 66937 68034 69132 70231 71330 72429 73528
Percentage change………..………………………………. 2.36 3.80 4.37 4.57 3.29 1.64 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.54 1.52
INFORMATION…………………………………………………… 70838 72289 74183 76126 78181 80015 81861 83710 85562 87413 89265
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.50 2.05 2.62 2.62 2.70 2.35 2.31 2.26 2.21 2.16 2.12
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………..... 73176 76105 78089 80061 81968 83793 85617 87440 89263 91086 92910
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.08 4.00 2.61 2.52 2.38 2.23 2.18 2.13 2.09 2.04 2.00
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………… 59337 61334 64218 67310 69769 71452 73134 74815 76497 78178 79860
Percentage change………..………………………………. 5.17 3.36 4.70 4.81 3.65 2.41 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.15
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………….. 50648 51698 52589 53624 54644 55629 56609 57584 58556 59526 60493
Percentage change………..………………………………. 1.43 2.07 1.72 1.97 1.90 1.80 1.76 1.72 1.69 1.66 1.63
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………. 25055 25400 25833 26463 27177 27688 28199 28710 29221 29732 30243
Percentage change………..………………………………. 0.64 1.37 1.71 2.44 2.70 1.88 1.85 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.72
OTHER SERVICES………………………………………….... 45467 46265 47090 48108 49128 50043 50958 51873 52789 53704 54619
Percentage change………..………………………………. 3.10 1.75 1.78 2.16 2.12 1.86 1.83 1.80 1.76 1.73 1.70
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………….... 46643 47596 48464 49234 49959 50643 51316 51995 52653 53307 53945
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)

Percentage change………..………………………………. 1.83 2.04 1.82 1.59 1.47 1.37 1.33 1.32 1.26 1.24 1.20
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………….. 81410 84991 87832 89937 91936 93912 95881 97849 99816 101784 103751
Percentage change………..………………………………. 2.70 4.40 3.34 2.40 2.22 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.01 1.97 1.93
STATE & LOCAL………………………………………….... 42212 42858 43498 44125 44738 45340 45928 46504 47069 47621 48162
Percentage change………..………………………………. 1.73 1.53 1.49 1.44 1.39 1.34 1.30 1.25 1.21 1.17 1.14

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3246 3279 3294 3305 3320 3340 3366 3387 3405 3425 3442
Percentage change……………………… 1.50 1.02 0.45 0.31 0.46 0.61 0.77 0.65 0.51 0.58 0.51

EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 3132 3162 3177 3188 3198 3208 3228 3247 3263 3282 3301
Percentage change……………………… 1.71 0.94 0.50 0.34 0.31 0.30 0.62 0.59 0.50 0.59 0.58

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…… 114 118 117 116 121 132 138 141 142 142 141
Percentage change……………………… -4.00 3.41 -0.77 -0.34 4.45 8.89 4.30 2.04 0.79 0.43 -0.95

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 60.8 60.8 60.6 60.2 60.0 59.9 59.8 59.8 59.6 59.5 59.4
Percentage change……………………… 0.36 0.04 -0.46 -0.56 -0.39 -0.21 -0.03 -0.12 -0.23 -0.14 -0.19

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)……… 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Forecast Data
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APPENDIX A
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35
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APPENDIX A
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
|

Forecast Data
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 123208 125386 127755 129819 131772 133603 135331 137364 139537 141757 143908

|
Percentage change………..………………… 4.31 1.77 1.89 1.62 1.50 1.39 1.29 1.50 1.58 1.59 1.52

Forecast Data
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 12363 12417 12497 12598 12676 12805 13016 13246 13455 13638 13826
Percentage change………..………………… 1.83 0.44 0.64 0.81 0.62 1.02 1.65 1.77 1.57 1.37 1.37
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 5407 5537 5685 5820 5937 6039 6141 6256 6383 6517 6657
Percentage change………..………………… 4.66 2.40 2.68 2.37 2.02 1.71 1.69 1.87 2.02 2.10 2.15
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 21057 22013 22666 23081 23633 24261 24710 25291 25952 26666 27294
Percentage change………..………………… 4.57 4.54 2.97 1.83 2.39 2.66 1.85 2.35 2.61 2.75 2.36
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 12469 12596 12753 12920 13151 13417 13680 13972 14259 14559 14870
Percentage change………..………………… 2.36 1.02 1.25 1.31 1.79 2.02 1.96 2.14 2.05 2.10 2.14
FOOD STORES………………………………… 11885 11944 12238 12530 12711 12780 12844 12924 13014 13108 13203
Percentage change………..………………… 4.06 0.50 2.46 2.38 1.45 0.54 0.50 0.62 0.70 0.72 0.72
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 880 894 906 915 930 952 969 993 1013 1040 1062
Percentage change………..………………… 2.74 1.61 1.34 1.02 1.62 2.31 1.80 2.49 1.98 2.70 2.13
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 3479 3581 3670 3752 3830 3905 3982 4064 4151 4240 4331
Percentage change………..………………… 2.24 2.94 2.48 2.25 2.08 1.96 1.95 2.07 2.14 2.14 2.14
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 37969 38715 39663 40578 41323 41873 42424 43033 43681 44343 45017
Percentage change………..………………… 5.88 1.96 2.45 2.31 1.84 1.33 1.32 1.43 1.51 1.52 1.52
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 9589 9760 9901 10014 10136 10288 10440 10605 10789 10940 11075
Percentage change………..………………… 2.96 1.78 1.44 1.14 1.22 1.50 1.47 1.59 1.73 1.40 1.24
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 8109 7929 7776 7611 7445 7283 7126 6981 6842 6707 6574
Percentage change………..………………… 6.19 -2.22 -1.92 -2.13 -2.18 -2.18 -2.15 -2.04 -1.98 -1.98 -1.98
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 18201 18366 18560 18710 18845 18963 19068 19217 19385 19560 19726
Percentage change………..………………… 3.40 0.91 1.05 0.81 0.72 0.63 0.55 0.78 0.88 0.90 0.84

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)

Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Forecast Data
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 133435 138877 144273 149711 155265 160860 166458 172407 178613 185055 191599
Percentage change………..………………… 6.49 4.08 3.89 3.77 3.71 3.60 3.48 3.57 3.60 3.61 3.54
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 13389 13752 14112 14528 14935 15418 16010 16625 17222 17804 18408
Percentage change………..………………… 3.96 2.72 2.62 2.95 2.80 3.23 3.84 3.84 3.59 3.38 3.39
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 5856 6133 6420 6712 6996 7271 7554 7852 8170 8507 8863
Percentage change………..………………… 6.85 4.72 4.69 4.54 4.23 3.93 3.89 3.95 4.05 4.12 4.18
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 22807 24382 25597 26618 27847 29211 30394 31744 33220 34811 36339
Percentage change………..………………… 6.76 6.91 4.98 3.99 4.62 4.90 4.05 4.44 4.65 4.79 4.39
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 13504 13951 14402 14900 15496 16154 16826 17536 18252 19006 19798
Percentage change………..………………… 4.51 3.31 3.23 3.46 4.00 4.25 4.16 4.22 4.08 4.13 4.17
FOOD STORES………………………………… 12871 13229 13820 14450 14977 15387 15798 16221 16659 17112 17578
Percentage change………..………………… 6.22 2.78 4.47 4.55 3.65 2.74 2.67 2.67 2.70 2.72 2.73
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 953 990 1023 1056 1096 1146 1192 1246 1296 1358 1414
Percentage change………..………………… 4.90 3.91 3.33 3.16 3.83 4.54 4.00 4.58 4.01 4.74 4.16
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 3768 3966 4144 4327 4513 4702 4897 5101 5313 5535 5766
Percentage change………..………………… 4.38 5.27 4.49 4.42 4.30 4.18 4.15 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 41120 42881 44791 46796 48690 50416 52182 54011 55913 57888 59936
Percentage change………..………………… 8.09 4.28 4.45 4.48 4.05 3.55 3.50 3.50 3.52 3.53 3.54
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 10385 10811 11181 11548 11943 12387 12841 13311 13810 14281 14745
Percentage change………..………………… 5.12 4.09 3.43 3.28 3.42 3.72 3.66 3.66 3.75 3.41 3.25
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 8782 8782 8781 8776 8772 8768 8764 8761 8758 8755 8753
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..………………… 8.38 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 19712 20342 20960 21577 22204 22832 23454 24119 24814 25535 26263
Percentage change………..………………… 5.56 3.20 3.03 2.94 2.91 2.83 2.72 2.84 2.88 2.91 2.85

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
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37
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APPENDIX A
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
Forecast Data
|

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT................................................................... 298,917 307,025 315,083 321,103 326,319 331,849 337,367 342,950 348,860 354,937 361,166 367671
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.13 2.71 2.62 1.91 1.62 1.69 1.66 1.65 1.72 1.74 1.75 1.80
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING & HUNTING............................... 1,276 1,199 1,236 1,268 1,246 1,222 1,201 1,184 1,169 1,157 1,148 1142

|
Percentage change………………………………………………… -6.82 -6.02 3.14 2.54 -1.73 -1.90 -1.69 -1.48 -1.25 -1.02 -0.78 -0.53

Forecast Data
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................... 2,276 2,309 2,340 2,377 2,417 2,435 2,445 2,453 2,467 2,486 2,500 2513
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.48 1.42 1.36 1.57 1.68 0.77 0.41 0.32 0.58 0.75 0.57 0.52
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................ 10,758 10,943 11,115 11,286 11,465 11,596 11,686 11,767 11,879 12,012 12,125 12233
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.06 1.72 1.57 1.54 1.59 1.14 0.78 0.69 0.95 1.12 0.94 0.89
MANUFACTURING............................................................................. 48,463 49,690 50,943 51,939 52,947 53,942 54,961 55,979 57,004 58,012 59,022 60043
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.26 2.53 2.52 1.96 1.94 1.88 1.89 1.85 1.83 1.77 1.74 1.73
DURABLE GOODS............................................................................... 28,445 29,218 30,015 30,697 31,343 31,980 32,659 33,338 34,035 34,703 35,371 36047
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.27 2.72 2.73 2.27 2.10 2.03 2.12 2.08 2.09 1.96 1.92 1.91
WOOD PRODUCTS…………………………………………................ 636 654 672 687 700 712 722 729 741 755 765 773
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.03 2.84 2.76 2.27 1.89 1.59 1.48 1.02 1.60 1.86 1.30 1.06
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS…………………………….. 1,290 1,327 1,367 1,394 1,409 1,425 1,446 1,460 1,477 1,494 1,502 1509
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.98 2.91 2.98 1.97 1.09 1.11 1.50 0.99 1.17 1.10 0.56 0.49
PRIMARY METALS………….……………………………................. 1,577 1,608 1,639 1,671 1,694 1,727 1,755 1,780 1,804 1,826 1,845 1861
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.58 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.35 1.95 1.67 1.37 1.38 1.21 1.04 0.86
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………………………… 3,653 3,753 3,880 3,951 4,017 4,028 4,072 4,106 4,116 4,128 4,140 4146
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.38 2.74 3.40 1.83 1.66 0.27 1.10 0.83 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.15
MACHINERY………………………………………………………… 2,712 2,747 2,787 2,820 2,841 2,855 2,869 2,886 2,908 2,920 2,933 2944
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.92 1.29 1.47 1.19 0.74 0.50 0.47 0.62 0.74 0.41 0.44 0.39
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…………… 888 931 970 1,009 1,038 1,070 1,102 1,125 1,158 1,182 1,213 1248
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.07 4.91 4.14 4.06 2.92 3.05 3.01 2.09 2.93 2.03 2.67 2.86
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES & COMPONENTS…… 3,538 3,639 3,747 3,845 3,926 4,021 4,127 4,220 4,328 4,422 4,515 4632
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.11 2.83 2.99 2.61 2.11 2.42 2.62 2.26 2.57 2.16 2.10 2.60
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS, & PARTS……………… 10,904 11,230 11,550 11,858 12,203 12,567 12,931 13,333 13,744 14,156 14,575 14992
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.14 2.99 2.85 2.67 2.91 2.98 2.90 3.11 3.08 3.00 2.96 2.86
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT…………………………… 415 427 439 447 452 454 457 459 460 461 462 464
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.66 2.75 2.81 1.92 1.16 0.44 0.55 0.58 0.16 0.20 0.27 0.29
FURNITURE…………………………………………………………….. 531 543 554 562 569 577 581 585 590 594 597 600
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.41 2.28 1.99 1.46 1.22 1.32 0.68 0.85 0.71 0.69 0.58 0.50
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS……………………………… 2,301 2,360 2,410 2,452 2,493 2,545 2,597 2,653 2,708 2,766 2,824 2878
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.09 2.56 2.13 1.72 1.68 2.10 2.03 2.14 2.09 2.15 2.07 1.92
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………………………… 20,018 20,472 20,928 21,242 21,604 21,962 22,302 22,641 22,969 23,309 23,652 23996
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.24 2.26 2.23 1.50 1.70 1.66 1.55 1.52 1.45 1.48 1.47 1.45
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO............................................ 7,400 7,634 7,870 8,024 8,150 8,322 8,491 8,672 8,873 9,075 9,265 9461
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.02 3.16 3.09 1.95 1.58 2.10 2.03 2.14 2.31 2.28 2.09 2.12
TEXTILE MILLS & TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS 456 448 441 427 412 403 393 382 372 363 355 346
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -3.82 -1.65 -1.63 -3.27 -3.35 -2.35 -2.51 -2.63 -2.56 -2.42 -2.41 -2.31
APPAREL & LEATHER PRODUCTS…………………………………… 171 168 170 169 168 167 166 165 164 163 162 161
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.64 -1.33 0.67 -0.44 -0.64 -0.41 -0.45 -0.57 -0.79 -0.57 -0.84 -0.46
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
Forecast Data
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
PAPER……………………………………………………………………… 2,539 2,602 2,656 2,700 2,752 2,778 2,801 2,822 2,838 2,854 2,866 2,876
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.09 2.47 2.09 1.67 1.92 0.92 0.83 0.78 0.55 0.55 0.43 0.36
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………………………………… 1,090 1,116 1,138 1,155 1,173 1,192 1,207 1,221 1,233 1,245 1,257 1,264
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.01 2.38 1.94 1.49 1.58 1.65 1.24 1.12 1.01 0.97 0.96 0.56
CHEMICALS……………………………………………………………… 5,026 5,125 5,218 5,296 5,403 5,475 5,566 5,661 5,725 5,806 5,900 6,001
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.61 1.97 1.81 1.49 2.03 1.33 1.65 1.71 1.14 1.40 1.62 1.72
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………………………………… 2,427 2,508 2,573 2,622 2,687 2,753 2,788 2,816 2,846 2,870 2,898 2,926
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.08 3.35 2.57 1.90 2.51 2.44 1.29 0.98 1.06 0.87 0.95 0.98
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS………………………… 909 931 953 975 984 1,002 1,021 1,034 1,052 1,067 1,088 1,099
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.14 2.42 2.36 2.29 1.01 1.78 1.95 1.19 1.76 1.49 1.88 1.02
TRADE………….....................……..................…….................................. 58,492 59,865 61,221 62,466 63,465 64,456 65,338 66,184 67,052 67,878 68,692 69,501
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.62 3.37 2.95 1.61 1.43 1.11 1.29 1.26 1.47 1.57 1.61 1.62
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………..................... 21,139 21,729 22,305 22,858 23,322 23,821 24,291 24,767 25,222 25,674 26,105 26,520
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.52 2.79 2.65 2.48 2.03 2.14 1.97 1.96 1.84 1.79 1.68 1.59
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………..................... 22,623 23,116 23,590 24,031 24,394 24,689 24,921 25,150 25,417 25,663 25,928 26,210
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.18 2.18 2.05 1.87 1.51 1.21 0.94 0.92 1.06 0.97 1.03 1.09
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………………………… 14,730 15,020 15,327 15,577 15,750 15,946 16,127 16,267 16,413 16,541 16,659 16,770
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.61 1.97 2.04 1.63 1.11 1.25 1.13 0.87 0.90 0.78 0.71 0.67
INFORMATION…………………………………………………….................. 10,310 10,758 11,217 11,679 12,040 12,398 12,789 13,302 13,836 14,340 14,878 15,409
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.85 4.35 4.26 4.12 3.09 2.98 3.15 4.01 4.02 3.64 3.75 3.57
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................ 48,460 50,365 52,183 52,982 53,744 54,760 55,724 56,671 57,646 58,649 59,646 60,845
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.00 3.93 3.61 1.53 1.44 1.89 1.76 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.70 2.01
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………………......... 34,046 35,278 36,612 37,849 38,799 39,746 40,748 41,770 43,053 44,530 46,026 47,545
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.70 3.62 3.78 3.38 2.51 2.44 2.52 2.51 3.07 3.43 3.36 3.30
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………....................... 31,234 31,999 32,834 33,487 34,177 34,864 35,530 36,187 36,842 37,509 38,226 38,990
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.16 2.45 2.61 1.99 2.06 2.01 1.91 1.85 1.81 1.81 1.91 2.00
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………..................... 14,072 14,764 15,214 15,401 15,505 15,629 15,788 16,017 16,225 16,464 16,777 17,075
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.39 4.92 3.05 1.23 0.67 0.80 1.02 1.45 1.30 1.47 1.90 1.78
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………......................... 6,855 6,918 6,971 6,987 6,951 6,996 7,049 7,112 7,180 7,240 7,294 7,353

Forecast Data
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.20 0.92 0.77 0.23 -0.52 0.64 0.76 0.90 0.96 0.83 0.74 0.81
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………........................ 32,676 32,937 33,196 33,382 33,563 33,804 34,107 34,324 34,505 34,661 34,834 35,023
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.46 0.80 0.79 0.56 0.54 0.72 0.90 0.63 0.53 0.45 0.50 0.54
FEDERAL.............................................…………………………………… 8,731 8,820 8,898 8,999 9,080 9,152 9,229 9,179 9,147 9,122 9,088 9,054
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -0.39 1.02 0.89 1.13 0.90 0.79 0.84 -0.54 -0.35 -0.27 -0.37 -0.38

|
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................ 23,945 24,117 24,298 24,383 24,483 24,652 24,879 25,145 25,359 25,539 25,746 25,970

APPENDIX A
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.78 0.72 0.75 0.35 0.41 0.69 0.92 1.07 0.85 0.71 0.81 0.87
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
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39
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APPENDIX A
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars) January 2019
Forecast Data
|

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT...................................................................... 345,450 363,291 382,747 399,751 416,327 433,970 451,930 470,295 489,287 509,344 530,482 552939
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.24 5.16 5.36 4.44 4.15 4.24 4.14 4.06 4.04 4.10 4.15 4.23

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AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING & HUNTING.................................. 1,425 1,359 1,423 1,481 1,480 1,477 1,476 1,478 1,480 1,487 1,497 1514
Percentage change………………………………………………… 0.35 -4.67 4.77 4.02 -0.02 -0.23 -0.05 0.16 0.12 0.45 0.70 1.13

Forecast Data
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING............................................................ 2,892 3,051 3,219 3,407 3,612 3,791 3,959 4,121 4,295 4,482 4,669 4864
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 5.46 5.46 5.51 5.84 6.03 4.96 4.42 4.10 4.22 4.36 4.18 4.18
CONSTRUCTION......................................................................................... 12,293 12,802 13,268 13,783 14,304 14,763 15,171 15,553 15,990 16,477 16,949 17433
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 1.79 4.14 3.64 3.88 3.78 3.21 2.76 2.52 2.81 3.05 2.86 2.86
MANUFACTURING...................................................................................... 55,183 57,664 60,524 63,204 66,086 69,061 72,128 75,258 78,429 81,723 85,175 88833
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.97 4.50 4.96 4.43 4.56 4.50 4.44 4.34 4.21 4.20 4.22 4.29
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................ 32,210 33,567 35,234 36,872 38,674 40,524 42,498 44,502 46,548 48,669 50,913 53305
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.71 4.22 4.97 4.65 4.89 4.78 4.87 4.71 4.60 4.56 4.61 4.70
WOOD PRODUCTS…………………………………………............. 802 843 892 943 1,001 1,059 1,118 1,174 1,239 1,310 1,378 1447
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.57 5.15 5.77 5.76 6.15 5.73 5.63 5.02 5.46 5.74 5.22 5.02
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS…………………………….. 1,251 1,366 1,430 1,498 1,551 1,615 1,674 1,708 1,754 1,799 1,834 1878
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 8.91 9.18 4.72 4.71 3.55 4.15 3.62 2.05 2.69 2.55 1.97 2.39
PRIMARY METALS………….……………………………................. 1,774 1,863 1,978 2,101 2,229 2,372 2,517 2,658 2,801 2,948 3,098 3251
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.73 5.06 6.16 6.18 6.10 6.45 6.09 5.59 5.41 5.22 5.09 4.95
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS……………………………………… 4,384 4,594 4,894 5,148 5,442 5,666 5,950 6,224 6,465 6,719 6,987 7260
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 2.46 4.79 6.53 5.19 5.71 4.13 5.01 4.61 3.87 3.93 3.99 3.91
MACHINERY………………………………………………………… 2,386 2,231 2,160 2,081 1,996 1,899 1,803 1,709 1,615 1,520 1,429 1342
Percentage change……………………………………………………… -4.79 -6.49 -3.20 -3.67 -4.10 -4.83 -5.06 -5.22 -5.51 -5.92 -5.99 -6.03
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS……………………………… 992 1,064 1,143 1,229 1,313 1,402 1,496 1,579 1,679 1,769 1,877 1996
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 7.23 7.25 7.49 7.52 6.79 6.77 6.68 5.58 6.31 5.38 6.09 6.34
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES & COMPONENTS……… 3,862 4,054 4,260 4,439 4,597 4,780 4,980 5,165 5,347 5,523 5,712 5941
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.18 4.99 5.08 4.19 3.57 3.97 4.18 3.73 3.50 3.30 3.42 4.01
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS, & PARTS………………… 12,940 13,586 14,324 15,098 16,006 16,968 17,972 19,055 20,180 21,358 22,608 23922
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 5.25 4.99 5.44 5.40 6.02 6.01 5.91 6.03 5.90 5.84 5.85 5.81
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT……………………………… 455 469 496 520 544 565 587 610 630 651 674 698
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.19 3.15 5.68 4.92 4.67 3.79 3.92 3.84 3.30 3.36 3.50 3.59
FURNITURE…………………………………………………………….. 592 612 632 650 670 690 707 726 744 763 781 801
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.60 3.48 3.23 2.85 3.00 3.07 2.48 2.64 2.47 2.50 2.46 2.44
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS………………………………… 2,773 2,884 3,023 3,166 3,325 3,507 3,695 3,893 4,095 4,311 4,536 4770
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.17 4.01 4.83 4.70 5.04 5.46 5.36 5.36 5.20 5.27 5.23 5.14
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………………………………… 22,973 24,096 25,290 26,332 27,412 28,537 29,630 30,757 31,880 33,055 34,262 35528
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.33 4.89 4.95 4.12 4.10 4.11 3.83 3.80 3.65 3.68 3.65 3.70
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO................................................ 8,753 9,212 9,649 10,020 10,403 10,857 11,326 11,823 12,356 12,914 13,479 14082
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.99 5.25 4.74 3.84 3.82 4.37 4.32 4.39 4.51 4.51 4.38 4.47
TEXTILE MILLS & TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS………………………… 469 452 443 428 416 408 400 392 384 378 372 366
Percentage change……………………………………………………… -8.25 -3.78 -1.97 -3.33 -2.91 -1.95 -1.95 -2.00 -1.91 -1.68 -1.59 -1.44
APPAREL & LEATHER PRODUCTS…………………………………… 203 207 215 221 227 234 241 247 253 259 265 272
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.90 1.87 3.90 2.73 2.83 2.98 2.88 2.63 2.28 2.51 2.28 2.73
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars) January 2019
Forecast Data
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
PAPER………………………………………………………………………. 2,608 2,755 2,866 2,968 3,071 3,158 3,220 3,310 3,390 3,475 3,538 3602
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.67 5.61 4.05 3.55 3.47 2.85 1.97 2.78 2.43 2.50 1.82 1.82
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………………………………… 1,448 1,523 1,611 1,702 1,804 1,913 2,018 2,122 2,225 2,332 2,444 2552
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.79 5.23 5.77 5.60 6.02 6.03 5.49 5.16 4.88 4.79 4.80 4.43
CHEMICALS………………………………………………………………… 5,740 5,940 6,228 6,519 6,885 7,213 7,579 7,958 8,299 8,678 9,097 9552
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.50 3.47 4.86 4.67 5.60 4.78 5.07 5.00 4.29 4.56 4.84 5.00
PLASTICS & RUBBER……………………………………………………… 2,738 2,946 3,162 3,302 3,390 3,482 3,514 3,523 3,531 3,520 3,502 3479
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 7.13 7.57 7.33 4.43 2.66 2.71 0.93 0.26 0.23 -0.30 -0.53 -0.65
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………… 1,013 1,062 1,115 1,172 1,217 1,273 1,333 1,383 1,441 1,499 1,565 1621
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 2.47 4.81 5.04 5.10 3.86 4.58 4.67 3.75 4.26 3.98 4.42 3.60
TRADE………….....................……..................……...................................... 65,539 68,127 70,711 73,388 75,918 78,533 80,989 83,444 85,973 88,428 90,952 93577
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.83 3.95 3.79 3.79 3.45 3.44 3.13 3.03 3.03 2.86 2.85 2.89
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………...................... 23,478 24,538 25,702 26,805 27,826 28,946 30,054 31,195 32,326 33,461 34,594 35739
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.66 4.52 4.74 4.29 3.81 4.03 3.83 3.79 3.62 3.51 3.39 3.31
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………........................ 27,810 29,271 30,600 32,008 33,430 34,820 36,155 37,493 38,902 40,326 41,842 43468
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 5.32 5.26 4.54 4.60 4.44 4.16 3.83 3.70 3.76 3.66 3.76 3.88
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………………………… 14,251 14,318 14,408 14,576 14,662 14,767 14,780 14,756 14,745 14,640 14,515 14370
Percentage change……………………………………………………… -0.21 0.46 0.63 1.16 0.59 0.71 0.09 -0.16 -0.08 -0.71 -0.86 -1.00
INFORMATION……………………………………………………..................... 12,449 13,271 14,138 15,003 15,795 16,631 17,540 18,648 19,824 21,000 22,276 23599
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 8.54 6.61 6.53 6.11 5.28 5.29 5.47 6.32 6.30 5.94 6.07 5.94
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................ 54,176 57,983 61,891 64,233 66,686 69,530 72,364 75,202 78,120 81,169 84,340 87959
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 5.67 7.03 6.74 3.78 3.82 4.26 4.08 3.92 3.88 3.90 3.91 4.29
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………………............ 39,199 41,641 44,538 47,213 49,681 52,295 55,096 58,015 61,384 65,165 69,169 73413
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.78 6.23 6.96 6.01 5.23 5.26 5.36 5.30 5.81 6.16 6.14 6.14
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………........................... 37,941 40,056 42,746 45,366 47,758 50,204 52,687 55,075 57,376 59,811 62,421 65131
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 4.17 5.57 6.71 6.13 5.27 5.12 4.95 4.53 4.18 4.24 4.36 4.34
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………..................... 17,641 19,077 20,278 21,138 21,943 22,829 23,806 24,901 25,974 27,143 28,488 29875
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 6.48 8.14 6.29 4.24 3.80 4.04 4.28 4.60 4.31 4.50 4.95 4.87
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………............................ 8,170 8,545 8,914 9,248 9,528 9,923 10,336 10,762 11,199 11,636 12,082 12560

Forecast Data
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 3.42 4.59 4.33 3.74 3.03 4.15 4.15 4.13 4.06 3.90 3.83 3.96
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………........................... 38,542 39,715 41,097 42,288 43,536 44,931 46,377 47,837 49,243 50,822 52,466 54179
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 2.56 3.04 3.48 2.90 2.95 3.21 3.22 3.15 2.94 3.21 3.23 3.27
FEDERAL.............................................…………………………………….. 10,456 10,781 11,111 11,468 11,795 12,134 12,463 12,663 12,862 13,091 13,309 13529
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 1.72 3.11 3.06 3.21 2.85 2.88 2.72 1.60 1.57 1.78 1.66 1.65

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STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................ 28085.8 28933.5 29986.4 30819.5 31741.2 32797.6 33913.6 35174.5 36381.6 37731.2 39156.6 40650

APPENDIX A
Percentage change……………………………………………………… 2.88 3.02 3.64 2.78 2.99 3.33 3.40 3.72 3.43 3.71 3.78 3.81
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
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41
42 | 2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
 Historical Data | APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA

IN THIS SECTION—

APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA

QUARTERLY PAGES 44–67 (2015:2 TO 2018:3)

ANNUAL PAGES 68–83 (2006 TO 2017)

Quarterly History Tables

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted...................................................................... 44
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted.................................................... 46
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)..................... 47
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars).................. 48
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)........................................... 49
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)......................... 50
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)................... 51
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)................................................. 52
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)............................... 54
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)....................... 55
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)...................... 56
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)............................ 57
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars).................. 59
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)......................... 60
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted.................................................. 62
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted......................................................... 63
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)............................................................. 64
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)................................................................... 65
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars).......................................................... 66
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)................................................................ 67

Annual History Tables

Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted...................................................................... 68
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators...................................................................................... 69
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars).............................................................................. 70
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)........................................................................... 71
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)................................................. 72
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs).................................................................. 73
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)............................................................ 74
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)................................................................. 75
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)............................................................. 76
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate........................................................................................... 77
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)...................................................................................................... 78
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)................................................................................................... 79
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)..................................................................... 80
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars).................................................................. 82

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 43

44

APPENDIX B
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

Historical Data Annual

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2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

US GDP (Bil2012$) SAAR……………………… 17397.0 17438.8 17456.2 17523.4 17622.5 17706.7 17784.2 17863.0 17995.2 18120.8 18223.8 18324.0 18511.6 18671.5 17386.7 17659.2 18050.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 3.34 0.96 0.40 1.55 2.28 1.93 1.76 1.79 2.99 2.82 2.29 2.22 4.16 3.50 2.88 1.57 2.22

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% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.37 2.38 2.00 1.56 1.30 1.54 1.88 1.94 2.11 2.34 2.47 2.58 2.87 3.04 2.88 1.57 2.22

Historical Data
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR…………………………… 18221.3 18331.1 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20659.0 18219.3 18707.2 19485.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 5.70 2.43 0.51 1.20 5.13 3.45 3.88 3.92 4.17 4.82 5.07 4.29 7.61 4.93 3.98 2.68 4.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.57 3.45 2.89 2.44 2.30 2.56 3.40 4.09 3.85 4.19 4.49 4.58 5.44 5.47 3.98 2.68 4.16

TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR… 273072 275427 276453 278660 278360 280888 283063 286128 287754 289045 289805 292184 293222 295091 273590 280243 288183
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 5.55 3.49 1.50 3.23 -0.43 3.68 3.13 4.40 2.29 1.81 1.06 3.32 1.43 2.57 5.02 2.43 2.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.25 5.52 4.70 3.43 1.94 1.98 2.39 2.68 3.37 2.90 2.38 2.12 1.90 2.09 5.02 2.43 2.83

US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR… 15209 15319 15364 15418 15410 15477 15575 15735 15814 15915 16003 16107 16196 16299 15243 15470 15867
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 3.52 2.94 1.18 1.40 -0.22 1.75 2.56 4.17 2.04 2.58 2.23 2.63 2.22 2.57 4.59 1.49 2.57
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.05 4.58 3.50 2.25 1.32 1.03 1.37 2.05 2.63 2.84 2.75 2.37 2.41 2.41 4.59 1.49 2.57

TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……… 281559 284838 285769 288213 289595 293486 297185 301945 304256 306838 309723 314168 316832 320103 282150 292120 305691
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 7.63 4.74 1.31 3.46 1.93 5.48 5.14 6.56 3.10 3.44 3.81 5.87 3.43 4.19 5.28 3.53 4.65
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.49 5.76 5.01 4.26 2.85 3.04 3.99 4.76 5.06 4.55 4.22 4.05 4.13 4.32 5.28 3.53 4.65

US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……… 15682 15843 15882 15947 16032 16171 16352 16604 16721 16895 17103 17319 17500 17680 15720 16125 16831
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 5.55 4.18 0.99 1.63 2.15 3.51 4.56 6.33 2.84 4.23 5.02 5.15 4.24 4.19 4.85 2.58 4.38
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.30 4.82 3.80 3.07 2.23 2.07 2.96 4.13 4.30 4.48 4.59 4.30 4.66 4.65 4.85 2.58 4.38

TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)………………… 2882.1 2903.5 2927.7 2943.3 2956.7 2976.1 2985.4 2997.9 3005.5 3014.4 3026.9 3040.9 3057.5 3073.7 2893.1 2965.4 3011.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 3.28 3.00 3.37 2.15 1.83 2.65 1.25 1.68 1.03 1.19 1.66 1.86 2.21 2.14 2.53 2.50 1.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.52 2.61 2.71 2.95 2.59 2.50 1.97 1.85 1.65 1.29 1.39 1.43 1.73 1.97 2.53 2.50 1.54

US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)……………………… 141.5 142.1 142.8 143.4 144.0 144.7 145.3 145.9 146.3 146.9 147.4 148.1 148.7 149.3 141.8 144.3 146.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.02 1.79 2.04 1.68 1.50 2.05 1.53 1.65 1.30 1.52 1.52 1.73 1.72 1.69 2.07 1.78 1.58
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.11 2.03 1.95 1.88 1.75 1.82 1.69 1.68 1.63 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.62 1.67 2.07 1.78 1.58

TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)………………………… 332.0 333.9 336.5 340.4 343.6 345.4 346.3 348.1 348.9 348.7 349.7 349.1 350.2 354.1 333.0 343.9 348.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.88 2.36 3.10 4.78 3.73 2.13 1.08 2.11 0.88 -0.19 1.10 -0.62 1.28 4.46 2.48 3.28 1.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.71 2.51 2.63 3.28 3.49 3.43 2.92 2.26 1.55 0.97 0.97 0.29 0.39 1.54 2.48 3.28 1.43

US MFG JOBS (MIL)…………………………… 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.4 12.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.91 0.56 0.28 0.29 -0.56 0.12 -0.33 1.43 1.00 1.12 2.27 2.70 2.39 1.81 1.24 0.14 0.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.48 1.16 0.66 0.51 0.14 0.03 -0.12 0.16 0.55 0.80 1.46 1.77 2.12 2.29 1.24 0.14 0.74
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted

TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………… 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 5.6 4.7 3.7

US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………… 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.9 4.4
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017

CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP

((2012=100.0)……………............................ 104.7 105.1 105.1 105.0 105.7 106.1 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.1 108.8 109.3 110.2 110.6 104.8 105.9 107.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.40 1.21 0.14 -0.21 2.67 1.41 2.25 2.00 1.20 2.18 2.51 2.00 3.05 1.67 1.03 1.09 1.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.15 0.94 0.88 0.88 0.95 1.00 1.53 2.08 1.72 1.91 1.97 1.97 2.44 2.31 1.03 1.09 1.92

US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)…… 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.4 104.0 104.5 105.0 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.9 107.5 108.1 108.5 103.1 104.2 106.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.96 1.20 -0.18 0.22 2.37 1.74 1.94 2.07 0.79 1.60 2.73 2.46 1.98 1.58 0.25 1.08 1.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.23 0.23 0.29 0.80 0.90 1.03 1.57 2.03 1.63 1.60 1.79 1.89 2.19 2.19 0.25 1.08 1.76

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,

ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)………………… 2.369 2.378 2.379 2.378 2.395 2.405 2.422 2.439 2.440 2.453 2.473 2.494 2.505 2.517 2.370 2.400 2.451
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.67 1.54 0.12 -0.07 2.72 1.84 2.74 2.96 0.10 2.13 3.31 3.51 1.66 2.00 0.12 1.27 2.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.03 0.15 0.41 1.06 1.07 1.15 1.80 2.57 1.90 1.97 2.12 2.25 2.65 2.61 0.12 1.27 2.14

BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)…………… 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 3.3 3.5 4.1

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)……… 0.123 0.137 0.160 0.360 0.373 0.397 0.450 0.700 0.950 1.153 1.203 1.447 1.737 1.923 0.133 0.395 1.002

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)…… 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.6 4.0

TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$)……………… 27499 27909 28317 28676 28547 28570 28843 28512 29373 29895 30337 30509 30714 30932 110049 114636 118117
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 19.08 6.10 5.98 5.17 -1.78 0.32 3.88 -4.51 12.63 7.30 6.05 2.29 2.72 2.87 6.33 4.17 3.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.85 7.10 6.91 8.93 3.81 2.37 1.86 -0.57 2.89 4.64 5.18 7.00 4.57 3.47 6.33 4.17 3.04

TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)…………………… 28353 28862 29271 29659 29700 29851 30282 30088 31057 31735 32422 32804 33187 33554 113498 119492 125303
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 21.42 7.38 5.79 5.40 0.55 2.06 5.90 -2.53 13.52 9.02 8.94 4.80 4.75 4.49 6.60 5.28 4.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.10 7.35 7.22 9.80 4.75 3.43 3.45 1.45 4.57 6.31 7.07 9.03 6.86 5.73 6.60 5.28 4.86

TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM

(2012$)…………….................................... 45930 45862 45911 45805 45527 45859 46215 46189 46335 46551 46299 46677 46480 46646 45766 45852 46344
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 5.11 -0.60 0.43 -0.92 -2.40 2.95 3.14 -0.23 1.27 1.88 -2.15 3.30 -1.68 1.44 3.05 0.19 1.07
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.65 3.94 2.84 0.98 -0.88 -0.01 0.66 0.84 1.77 1.51 0.18 1.06 0.31 0.20 3.05 0.19 1.07

TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)…… 47358 47429 47458 47375 47365 47916 48521 48742 48992 49417 49482 50189 50222 50600 47198 47794 49158
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 7.17 0.60 0.25 -0.70 -0.09 4.74 5.15 1.83 2.07 3.51 0.53 5.84 0.26 3.04 3.31 1.26 2.85
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.90 4.18 3.14 1.78 0.01 1.03 2.24 2.89 3.44 3.13 1.98 2.97 2.51 2.39 3.31 1.26 2.85

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
45
46

APPENDIX B
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

US GDP (2012$) SAAR………………….……… 54150 54164 54118 54245 54453 54600 54741 54903 55210 55481 55698 55922 56394 56765 54059 54510 55324

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 2.58 0.10 -0.34 0.94 1.55 1.08 1.04 1.19 2.26 1.98 1.57 1.62 3.42 2.66 2.12 0.83 1.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.60 1.63 1.25 0.82 0.56 0.81 1.15 1.21 1.39 1.61 1.75 1.86 2.14 2.31 2.12 0.83 1.49

Historical Data
US GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 56716 56935 56902 56987 57600 57970 58420 58897 59395 59973 60612 61162 62183 62807 56648 57745 59721
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 4.93 1.56 -0.23 0.60 4.37 2.60 3.14 3.31 3.42 3.95 4.33 3.68 6.85 4.07 3.22 1.94 3.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.79 2.69 2.14 1.69 1.56 1.82 2.67 3.35 3.12 3.46 3.75 3.85 4.69 4.73 3.22 1.94 3.42

TN PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR……. 41406 41763 41918 41896 41851 42231 42558 42639 42881 43074 43187 43163 43316 43592 41484 42134 42945
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 5.55 3.49 1.50 -0.21 -0.43 3.68 3.13 0.76 2.29 1.81 1.06 -0.22 1.43 2.57 4.22 1.57 1.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.44 4.71 3.90 2.56 1.08 1.12 1.53 1.77 2.46 1.99 1.48 1.23 1.01 1.20 4.22 1.57 1.92

US PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR…… 47340 47581 47632 47728 47616 47723 47940 48361 48519 48728 48911 49157 49339 49551 47393 47752 48630
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 2.76 2.06 0.43 0.80 -0.93 0.90 1.83 3.56 1.31 1.74 1.50 2.03 1.49 1.73 3.82 0.76 1.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.28 3.81 2.74 1.51 0.58 0.30 0.65 1.33 1.90 2.11 2.02 1.65 1.69 1.69 3.82 0.76 1.84

TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………… 42692 43190 43331 43333 43540 44125 44681 44996 45340 45725 46155 46410 46804 47287 42782 43920 45554
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 7.63 4.74 1.31 0.02 1.93 5.48 5.14 2.85 3.10 3.44 3.81 2.23 3.43 4.19 4.48 2.66 3.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.69 4.95 4.21 3.38 1.99 2.17 3.12 3.84 4.13 3.63 3.30 3.14 3.23 3.42 4.48 2.66 3.72

US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………. 48811 49207 49238 49364 49538 49863 50332 51034 51301 51728 52272 52855 53312 53751 48876 49775 51585
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 4.78 3.28 0.25 1.03 1.42 2.66 3.81 5.70 2.11 3.37 4.27 4.54 3.50 3.34 4.08 1.84 3.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.52 4.05 3.04 2.32 1.49 1.33 2.22 3.38 3.56 3.74 3.85 3.57 3.92 3.91 4.08 1.84 3.64

TN TAXABLE SALES (2012$)………………… 4170 4232 4294 4311 4292 4295 4337 4249 4377 4455 4521 4507 4537 4569 16687 17235 17602
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 19.08 6.10 5.98 1.66 -1.78 0.32 3.88 -7.84 12.63 7.30 6.05 -1.23 2.72 2.87 5.52 3.29 2.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 7.02 6.28 6.10 8.01 2.94 1.50 1.00 -1.45 1.98 3.71 4.25 6.07 3.66 2.57 5.52 3.29 2.13

TN TAXABLE SALES ($)……………………… 4299 4376 4438 4459 4465 4488 4553 4484 4628 4729 4832 4846 4903 4957 17210 17965 18673
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 21.42 7.38 5.79 1.89 0.55 2.06 5.90 -5.93 13.52 9.02 8.94 1.20 4.75 4.49 5.78 4.39 3.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 7.27 6.53 6.41 8.88 3.86 2.55 2.58 0.55 3.65 5.37 6.12 8.08 5.93 4.81 5.78 4.39 3.94

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
 of 2012 dollars)
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions

Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………..……… 269407 273072 275427 276453 278660 278360 280888 283063 286128 287754 289045 289805 292184 293222 273590 280243 288183
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 8.39 5.55 3.49 1.50 3.23 -0.43 3.68 3.13 4.40 2.29 1.81 1.06 3.32 1.43 5.02 2.43 2.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.61 5.25 5.52 4.70 3.43 1.94 1.98 2.39 2.68 3.37 2.90 2.38 2.12 1.90 5.02 2.43 2.83
WAGES AND SALARIES……………… 130516 133208 134000 135236 135689 135471 137334 138822 139290 140078 141148 140970 142768 142940 133240 136829 140372
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 7.65 8.51 2.40 3.74 1.35 -0.64 5.62 4.40 1.36 2.28 3.09 -0.50 5.20 0.48 5.58 2.69 2.59
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.02 6.18 6.58 5.54 3.96 1.70 2.49 2.65 2.65 3.40 2.78 1.55 2.50 2.04 5.58 2.69 2.59
OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 28737 29092 29377 29814 30337 30604 31184 31590 31588 31864 31967 31921 32079 32060 29255 30929 31835
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 3.27 5.04 3.98 6.08 7.19 3.57 7.80 5.30 -0.03 3.55 1.30 -0.58 2.00 -0.23 2.14 5.72 2.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… -0.77 1.49 3.30 4.59 5.57 5.20 6.15 5.95 4.12 4.12 2.51 1.05 1.56 0.62 2.14 5.72 2.93
PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 37879 37916 38407 37879 38642 38105 38347 39015 40432 40781 41130 41367 41719 42055 38020 38527 40927
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 11.04 0.39 5.28 -5.39 8.30 -5.45 2.57 7.15 15.34 3.49 3.47 2.33 3.45 3.26 4.06 1.33 6.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 5.56 3.90 4.17 2.65 2.01 0.50 -0.16 3.00 4.63 7.02 7.26 6.03 3.18 3.12 4.06 1.33 6.23
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……… 38839 39928 40490 40377 40702 40914 41075 41375 42212 42178 42233 43100 43237 43335 39908 41016 42431
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 4.01 11.69 5.75 -1.10 3.25 2.10 1.59 2.95 8.35 -0.33 0.52 8.47 1.28 0.91 6.38 2.78 3.45
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 7.01 7.05 6.52 4.99 4.80 2.47 1.45 2.47 3.71 3.09 2.82 4.17 2.43 2.74 6.38 2.78 3.45
TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………… 55245 55229 55565 55748 56293 56243 56290 55907 56529 56990 56907 56759 57178 57609 55447 56183 56796
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 14.04 -0.12 2.46 1.32 3.97 -0.35 0.33 -2.69 4.53 3.30 -0.58 -1.04 2.98 3.05 4.99 1.33 1.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 6.03 4.92 4.75 4.28 1.90 1.84 1.30 0.28 0.42 1.33 1.10 1.52 1.15 1.09 4.99 1.33 1.09
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 20600 21012 21110 21273 21364 21326 21621 21882 22151 22331 22514 22502 22906 22914 20998 21548 22374
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 6.96 8.24 1.88 3.12 1.74 -0.73 5.65 4.92 5.01 3.28 3.32 -0.22 7.38 0.13 4.84 2.62 3.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.95 5.44 5.96 5.02 3.71 1.49 2.42 2.86 3.68 4.71 4.13 2.83 3.41 2.61 4.84 2.62 3.83
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1210 -1288 -1302 -1330 -1637 -1651 -1722 -1764 -1773 -1806 -1826 -1810 -1890 -1863 -1282 -1693 -1804
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 14.48 28.70 4.28 8.83 129.78 3.34 18.29 10.15 2.13 7.75 4.47 -3.53 18.83 -5.45 9.94 32.04 6.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 1.66 10.89 13.72 13.72 35.35 28.13 32.23 32.63 8.29 9.43 6.08 2.62 6.58 3.15 9.94 32.04 6.53
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 40850 41406 41763 41918 41896 41851 42231 42558 42639 42881 43074 43187 43163 43316 41484 42134 42945
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 5.12 5.55 3.49 1.50 -0.21 -0.43 3.68 3.13 0.76 2.29 1.81 1.06 -0.22 1.43 4.22 1.57 1.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.82 4.44 4.71 3.90 2.56 1.08 1.12 1.53 1.77 2.46 1.99 1.48 1.23 1.01 4.22 1.57 1.92

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
47
48

APPENDIX B
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

|

2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………..…………276433 281559 284838 285769 288213 289595 293486 297185 301945 304256 306838 309723 314168 316832 282150 292120 305691
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 6.47 7.63 4.74 1.31 3.46 1.93 5.48 5.14 6.56 3.10 3.44 3.81 5.87 3.43 5.28 3.53 4.65

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 4.87 5.49 5.76 5.01 4.26 2.85 3.04 3.99 4.76 5.06 4.55 4.22 4.05 4.13 5.28 3.53 4.65

Historical Data
WAGES AND SALARIES………………… 133920 137348 138578 139793 140340 140938 143494 145748 146990 148112 149837 150659 153509 154449 137410 142630 148899
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 5.73 10.64 3.63 3.55 1.57 1.72 7.45 6.43 3.45 3.09 4.74 2.21 7.79 2.47 5.85 3.80 4.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 4.27 6.43 6.82 5.85 4.79 2.61 3.55 4.26 4.74 5.09 4.42 3.37 4.43 4.28 5.85 3.80 4.40
OTHER LABOR INCOME………………… 29486 29996 30381 30819 31377 31839 32583 33166 33334 33691 33935 34115 34492 34641 30171 32241 33769
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 1.44 7.10 5.23 5.89 7.43 6.03 9.68 7.35 2.04 4.36 2.92 2.14 4.50 1.74 2.40 6.86 4.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -0.53 1.72 3.54 4.89 6.41 6.14 7.25 7.61 6.24 5.82 4.15 2.86 3.48 2.82 2.40 6.86 4.74
PROPRIETORS INCOME………………… 38867 39094 39720 39156 39967 39643 40067 40961 42667 43120 43662 44210 44858 45441 39209 40159 43415
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 9.07 2.36 6.55 -5.56 8.55 -3.21 4.35 9.23 17.73 4.31 5.12 5.12 5.99 5.31 4.32 2.42 8.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 5.81 4.15 4.42 2.95 2.83 1.40 0.87 4.61 6.76 8.77 8.97 7.93 5.13 5.38 4.32 2.42 8.11
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………… 39852 41168 41873 41738 42097 42565 42917 43439 44546 44597 44833 46062 46490 46824 41158 42755 45009
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 2.16 13.88 7.03 -1.28 3.48 4.52 3.35 4.95 10.59 0.46 2.13 11.43 3.77 2.91 6.64 3.88 5.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 7.27 7.30 6.77 5.29 5.63 3.39 2.49 4.08 5.82 4.77 4.46 6.04 4.36 5.00 6.64 3.88 5.27
TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………… 56686 56945 57464 57627 58223 58513 58814 58696 59654 60259 60410 60660 61480 62248 57180 58562 60246
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 12.02 1.84 3.69 1.14 4.20 2.01 2.07 -0.80 6.69 4.12 1.01 1.67 5.51 5.09 5.25 2.42 2.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 6.29 5.16 4.99 4.58 2.71 2.75 2.35 1.86 2.46 2.98 2.71 3.35 3.06 3.30 5.25 2.42 2.88
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 21137 21665 21831 21989 22097 22186 22591 22973 23376 23611 23900 24048 24629 24759 21656 22462 23734
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 5.06 10.36 3.11 2.93 1.97 1.63 7.49 6.95 7.19 4.10 4.97 2.51 10.02 2.11 5.11 3.72 5.66
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 3.20 5.68 6.21 5.32 4.54 2.41 3.48 4.48 5.79 6.42 5.79 4.68 5.36 4.86 5.11 3.72 5.66
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1241 -1328 -1346 -1375 -1693 -1717 -1799 -1852 -1871 -1910 -1939 -1934 -2032 -2013 -1323 -1765 -1914
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 12.45 31.23 5.54 8.64 130.30 5.79 20.34 12.29 4.25 8.60 6.14 -0.90 21.75 -3.58 10.23 33.47 8.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.90 11.15 13.98 14.05 36.44 29.28 33.59 34.70 10.49 11.22 7.78 4.46 8.60 5.41 10.23 33.47 8.40
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 41915 42692 43190 43331 43333 43540 44125 44681 44996 45340 45725 46155 46410 46804 42782 43920 45554
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 3.25 7.63 4.74 1.31 0.02 1.93 5.48 5.14 2.85 3.10 3.44 3.81 2.23 3.43 4.48 2.66 3.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 4.07 4.69 4.95 4.21 3.38 1.99 2.17 3.12 3.84 4.13 3.63 3.30 3.14 3.23 4.48 2.66 3.72

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
of current dollars)
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions
 of jobs)
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands

Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
Historical Data Annual
2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………… 2883.9 2896.7 2962.2 2916.8 2957.1 2968.9 3019.1 2969.3 3004.6 3007.8 3058.5 3016.7 3057.8 3067.5 2893.9 2965.5 3010.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.50 2.65 2.72 2.97 2.54 2.49 1.92 1.80 1.61 1.31 1.30 1.60 1.77 1.98 2.54 2.47 1.50
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION… 117.3 120.1 120.6 114.8 118.7 121.4 121.4 119.5 124.5 126.6 125.6 122.0 126.3 128.5 117.2 119.1 124.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 5.61 6.25 5.24 3.73 1.22 1.08 0.66 4.09 4.91 4.23 3.46 2.06 1.39 1.53 5.64 1.64 4.17
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 332.1 334.2 337.0 339.5 343.7 345.7 346.8 347.2 349.0 349.1 350.1 348.2 350.4 354.4 333.0 343.9 348.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.69 2.50 2.61 3.31 3.48 3.43 2.91 2.27 1.55 0.98 0.95 0.28 0.40 1.54 2.48 3.28 1.43
DURABLE GOODS………………………………………… 210.1 211.5 213.6 216.0 219.2 220.4 221.2 221.5 222.3 221.7 222.5 221.4 222.9 226.4 210.8 219.2 222.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.91 2.85 2.86 3.80 4.33 4.19 3.59 2.58 1.41 0.59 0.59 -0.06 0.25 2.10 2.78 3.98 1.28
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………… 122.0 122.7 123.4 123.5 124.5 125.3 125.5 125.7 126.7 127.4 127.5 126.8 127.6 128.1 122.2 124.7 126.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.32 1.91 2.18 2.46 2.02 2.12 1.73 1.73 1.79 1.68 1.59 0.88 0.66 0.55 1.96 2.08 1.70
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………………… 597.5 603.5 620.2 607.0 613.9 617.4 630.8 613.3 617.7 621.7 631.5 619.3 627.4 630.5 602.2 617.3 621.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.00 2.29 2.36 3.28 2.74 2.30 1.70 1.04 0.62 0.69 0.12 0.99 1.56 1.42 2.10 2.49 0.61
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………… 120.0 120.2 120.4 118.9 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.0 121.3 121.8 121.5 121.3 122.2 122.9 120.0 119.5 121.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... -0.47 -0.22 -0.03 -0.45 -0.78 -0.33 -0.19 0.90 1.88 1.64 1.11 1.11 0.80 0.96 -0.24 -0.44 1.38
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………… 323.6 325.1 336.2 327.5 332.4 333.3 342.0 332.0 334.2 334.3 338.6 329.2 334.6 333.9 325.5 333.8 334.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 1.54 1.46 1.84 3.37 2.72 2.50 1.73 1.35 0.54 0.32 -1.00 -0.82 0.11 -0.12 1.45 2.57 0.29
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………………… 153.9 158.2 163.6 160.5 162.4 164.3 168.6 161.3 162.2 165.6 171.4 168.8 170.5 173.6 156.8 164.0 165.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 5.03 6.13 5.32 6.03 5.54 3.90 3.04 0.50 -0.12 0.75 1.68 4.63 5.12 4.85 5.38 4.59 0.71
INFORMATION………………………………………………… 44.3 44.6 45.2 45.0 45.6 45.1 45.7 45.4 46.1 45.4 45.7 45.5 46.8 45.1 44.4 45.3 45.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 0.84 1.98 3.35 3.53 3.09 1.05 1.03 0.96 0.95 0.74 -0.07 0.22 1.66 -0.66 1.39 2.16 0.64
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………………………… 147.3 148.8 150.2 149.7 152.5 154.6 155.5 155.8 158.2 159.1 159.5 159.5 161.2 162.0 148.0 153.1 158.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.41 2.53 2.95 2.77 3.48 3.90 3.53 4.05 3.74 2.89 2.55 2.40 1.90 1.80 2.69 3.42 3.30
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES……………… 390.2 394.6 409.5 395.1 402.9 405.6 413.8 398.7 404.8 407.7 415.2 405.0 414.5 418.4 393.5 404.3 406.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 4.56 4.70 4.44 4.09 3.25 2.78 1.03 0.90 0.47 0.53 0.35 1.60 2.40 2.62 4.65 2.76 0.56
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………… 412.1 413.6 422.1 419.9 421.1 423.3 431.2 428.9 429.4 428.9 440.4 437.0 436.7 437.2 414.6 423.9 431.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.25 2.30 2.43 2.26 2.20 2.36 2.16 2.15 1.96 1.31 2.15 1.90 1.69 1.95 2.17 2.24 1.89
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………………… 314.3 316.5 310.7 304.0 325.7 328.3 320.3 314.2 335.0 336.9 333.0 328.5 350.2 355.9 308.0 319.6 329.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 3.95 3.53 4.33 4.67 3.61 3.73 3.11 3.35 2.87 2.63 3.94 4.54 4.54 5.64 3.89 3.76 3.19
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………… 108.7 108.8 108.8 108.8 111.5 111.8 111.7 111.9 114.8 114.8 114.2 114.3 116.3 116.5 108.0 111.0 113.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 1.62 2.19 2.64 3.00 2.61 2.79 2.73 2.85 2.93 2.62 2.24 2.11 1.31 1.51 1.78 2.78 2.66

Historical Data
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………… 420.2 411.9 437.9 433.0 421.5 415.6 442.0 434.4 425.2 417.7 443.3 437.3 428.1 418.9 425.1 428.0 430.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 0.04 0.35 0.15 0.64 0.32 0.90 0.93 0.32 0.87 0.50 0.30 0.67 0.68 0.30 0.20 0.70 0.49
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………… 49.2 49.1 49.2 49.0 49.1 49.3 49.5 49.3 49.2 49.0 48.7 48.7 48.8 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... 2.08 1.80 1.86 0.07 -0.07 0.48 0.54 0.61 0.20 -0.68 -1.48 -1.22 -0.88 0.07 1.48 0.25 -0.34
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………… 371.0 362.8 388.7 384.0 372.4 366.3 392.5 385.1 375.9 368.7 394.6 388.6 379.3 369.9 375.9 378.8 381.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... -0.22 0.16 -0.06 0.72 0.37 0.96 0.98 0.29 0.96 0.66 0.53 0.91 0.89 0.33 0.03 0.76 0.60

|
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

APPENDIX B
|
49
50

APPENDIX B
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS………………………… 210.1 211.5 213.6 216.0 219.2 220.4 221.2 221.5 222.3 221.7 222.5 221.4 222.9 226.4 210.8 219.2 222.0

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.91 2.85 2.86 3.80 4.33 4.19 3.59 2.58 1.41 0.59 0.59 -0.06 0.25 2.10 2.78 3.98 1.28

Historical Data
WOOD PRODUCTS……………………………… 11.5 11.6 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.7 11.6 12.1 12.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.29 1.75 4.40 5.01 5.22 5.44 3.93 4.49 3.03 2.99 1.08 -0.81 -0.80 0.79 3.12 4.90 2.88

NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……… 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 12.7 13.3 13.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 5.29 6.08 6.27 7.63 5.56 5.21 2.56 2.03 2.76 1.49 2.50 1.74 1.22 3.17 5.41 5.20 2.19

PRIMARY METALS………….…………………… 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.99 2.64 3.61 4.26 2.26 -0.32 0.63 -0.31 0.00 2.26 0.00 -0.63 -3.47 -3.15 2.73 1.69 0.48

FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………… 35.0 35.2 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.6 35.4 35.3 35.5 35.5 35.9 35.6 36.3 36.5 35.2 35.6 35.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.55 2.42 1.91 1.91 2.19 1.04 -0.19 -0.66 -0.65 -0.19 1.41 0.75 2.25 2.81 2.08 1.23 -0.02

MACHINERY……………………………………… 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.0 26.0 25.7 25.2 25.2 25.7 25.3 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.3 25.3 25.5 25.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.92 -0.66 -1.30 -0.40 1.69 1.72 0.00 0.80 -1.28 -1.56 2.91 3.05 2.85 3.96 -0.62 0.76 0.20

COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…… 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.00 -2.63 -5.23 -5.26 -4.67 -2.70 0.00 0.00 0.70 2.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.04 -1.82 -3.19 0.69

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..…………………… 19.7 19.7 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.7 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.43 1.20 4.19 1.71 0.85 0.84 -1.17 -2.52 -2.86 -3.18 -2.20 -0.86 -0.35 1.21 1.98 0.55 -2.69

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT…………… 66.1 67.1 68.1 70.4 71.9 73.2 74.6 75.2 74.8 74.2 74.1 73.8 74.0 76.1 66.8 72.5 74.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 4.37 5.34 4.39 7.20 8.72 9.09 9.54 6.77 4.08 1.41 -0.63 -1.82 -1.11 2.51 4.69 8.65 2.85

FURNITURE……………………………………… 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.4 9.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -1.10 0.74 4.15 4.48 4.44 3.66 3.26 2.50 1.77 0.35 0.00 -0.70 -0.35 1.06 0.56 3.96 1.15

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS………… 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.5 15.3 15.6 16.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 5.02 2.90 1.32 1.32 1.74 2.16 1.95 2.16 2.35 2.75 3.18 2.33 1.67 2.27 3.66 1.79 2.62

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
(thousands of jobs)
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted
 (thousands of jobs)
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 122.0 122.7 123.4 123.5 124.5 125.3 125.5 125.7 126.7 127.4 127.5 126.8 127.6 128.1 122.2 124.7 126.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.32 1.91 2.18 2.46 2.02 2.12 1.73 1.73 1.79 1.68 1.59 0.88 0.66 0.55 1.96 2.08 1.70

FOOD………………………………………………… 33.1 33.4 33.6 33.8 33.9 34.6 34.8 34.8 34.9 35.6 35.7 35.4 35.6 35.9 33.3 34.3 35.3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.16 1.31 1.51 2.53 2.41 3.39 3.67 2.96 2.95 3.09 2.49 1.63 1.81 0.75 1.65 3.00 2.87

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………… 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.7 5.9 6.6 7.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 7.93 9.09 8.24 11.83 10.73 11.67 9.24 5.29 5.61 5.97 6.97 8.54 8.70 7.98 7.74 10.85 5.97

PAPER……………………………………………… 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.23 -1.13 0.92 -0.46 -0.23 -0.68 -0.46 0.23 0.23 0.92 0.23 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.06 -0.46 0.40

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………… 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -2.80 -3.52 -3.17 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.73 -1.80 -1.80 -1.82 -1.10 -1.47 -1.10 -0.37 -2.98 -0.27 -1.63

CHEMICALS………………………………………… 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.6 25.3 24.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.05 1.71 1.72 0.66 -1.04 -2.07 -2.21 -2.10 -1.71 -1.32 -0.80 -0.27 0.00 0.67 1.19 -1.17 -1.48

PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………… 21.9 21.9 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.0 21.9 23.2 24.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 7.19 4.62 4.17 5.88 5.34 6.09 5.04 5.85 6.95 5.16 3.95 2.21 1.49 2.18 5.66 5.58 5.47

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…… 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.5 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.8 11.7 11.7 11.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.16 4.13 4.42 1.17 1.43 0.57 -0.85 1.16 -1.41 -1.69 0.00 -3.14 -5.44 -6.88 1.60 0.57 -0.50

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
51
52

APPENDIX B
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

|

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………2882.1 2903.5 2927.7 2943.3 2956.7 2976.1 2985.4 2997.9 3005.5 3014.4 3026.9 3040.9 3057.5 3073.7 2893.1 2965.4 3011.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.28 3.00 3.37 2.15 1.83 2.65 1.25 1.68 1.03 1.19 1.66 1.86 2.21 2.14 2.53 2.50 1.54

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.52 2.61 2.71 2.95 2.59 2.50 1.97 1.85 1.65 1.29 1.39 1.43 1.73 1.97 2.53 2.50 1.54

Historical Data
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION…………………………116.47 118.10 119.47 118.63 117.93 119.50 120.53 123.20 124.03 124.53 124.77 125.07 126.23 126.4 117.17 119.15 124.13
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.55 5.73 4.71 -2.76 -2.34 5.42 3.50 9.15 2.73 1.62 0.75 0.97 3.78 0.53 5.68 1.69 4.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.75 6.46 5.35 3.49 1.26 1.19 0.89 3.85 5.17 4.21 3.51 1.52 1.77 1.50 5.68 1.69 4.18
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 332.0 333.9 336.5 340.4 343.6 345.4 346.3 348.1 348.9 348.7 349.7 349.1 350.2 351.3 333.0 343.9 348.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.88 2.36 3.10 4.78 3.73 2.13 1.08 2.11 0.88 -0.19 1.10 -0.62 1.28 1.28 2.48 3.28 1.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.71 2.51 2.63 3.28 3.49 3.43 2.92 2.26 1.55 0.97 0.97 0.29 0.39 0.75 2.48 3.28 1.43
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 210.0 211.5 213.3 216.4 219.1 220.4 221.0 221.9 222.2 221.6 222.3 221.8 222.7 223.8 210.8 219.2 222.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.83 2.95 3.45 5.85 5.14 2.38 1.11 1.70 0.50 -1.03 1.29 -0.92 1.63 2.01 2.78 3.97 1.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.92 2.87 2.87 3.76 4.34 4.19 3.60 2.57 1.42 0.57 0.61 -0.05 0.24 0.99 2.78 3.97 1.28
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 122.0 122.4 123.2 124.1 124.5 125.0 125.3 126.2 126.7 127.1 127.3 127.3 127.5 127.5 122.2 124.7 126.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.95 1.36 2.50 2.94 1.31 1.71 1.03 2.84 1.56 1.28 0.76 -0.10 0.65 0.01 1.96 2.08 1.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.34 1.90 2.21 2.44 2.03 2.11 1.75 1.72 1.78 1.68 1.61 0.87 0.65 0.33 1.96 2.08 1.70
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 599.8 604.6 608.8 613.9 616.5 619.0 619.9 620.6 620.9 623.1 622.3 624.8 628.7 631.0 601.9 617.3 621.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.57 3.29 2.79 3.42 1.68 1.63 0.60 0.41 0.19 1.47 -0.56 1.64 2.52 1.49 2.06 2.56 0.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.95 2.24 2.33 3.26 2.79 2.38 1.83 1.08 0.71 0.67 0.38 0.68 1.26 1.27 2.06 2.56 0.71
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.5 119.0 119.6 119.9 120.6 121.3 121.6 121.2 122.0 122.2 122.5 120.0 119.5 121.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.77 0.22 0.33 -1.77 -1.66 2.15 0.89 2.36 2.34 0.99 -1.42 2.89 0.44 0.99 -0.24 -0.40 1.39
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.39 -0.22 -0.06 -0.50 -0.72 -0.25 -0.11 0.92 1.93 1.64 1.06 1.19 0.71 0.71 -0.24 -0.40 1.39
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 324.7 326.5 329.1 332.0 333.6 334.7 335.3 336.4 335.6 335.8 333.2 332.2 334.7 335.2 325.4 333.9 335.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 4.26 2.28 3.14 3.57 1.94 1.37 0.72 1.36 -1.03 0.24 -3.06 -1.16 3.04 0.64 1.43 2.60 0.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.45 1.46 1.88 3.31 2.73 2.50 1.89 1.35 0.60 0.32 -0.64 -1.26 -0.26 -0.16 1.43 2.60 0.40
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 155.2 158.2 159.7 162.5 163.9 164.7 164.7 163.5 164.0 165.8 167.9 170.6 171.8 173.3 156.5 164.0 165.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.60 7.87 3.93 7.11 3.66 1.80 0.16 -2.88 1.15 4.38 5.33 6.42 3.00 3.54 5.27 4.73 0.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.96 5.92 5.18 6.12 5.63 4.11 3.15 0.66 0.04 0.67 1.94 4.30 4.78 4.56 5.27 4.73 0.83
INFORMATION…………………………………… 44.2 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.1 45.1 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.4 45.5 45.5 46.6 45.4 44.4 45.2 45.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.62 5.23 3.32 0.00 -0.30 0.30 4.20 0.59 -0.29 -1.45 0.29 0.59 9.39 -9.92 1.29 1.84 0.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.61 1.98 3.28 3.52 2.04 0.82 1.03 1.18 1.18 0.74 -0.22 -0.22 2.12 -0.15 1.29 1.84 0.72
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 147.1 148.4 149.8 150.6 152.2 154.1 155.3 156.7 158.0 158.6 159.2 160.2 161.1 161.6 148.0 153.0 158.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.74 3.58 3.83 1.97 4.41 5.09 3.06 3.83 3.18 1.61 1.61 2.37 2.35 1.25 2.65 3.42 3.33
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.25 2.51 2.95 2.78 3.44 3.82 3.63 4.10 3.79 2.92 2.55 2.19 1.98 1.89 2.65 3.42 3.33
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 390.9 395.4 401.8 401.7 404.1 406.2 405.1 405.7 406.1 408.1 408.0 410.0 416.4 419.1 393.5 404.3 407.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.25 4.69 6.70 -0.13 2.45 2.06 -1.08 0.59 0.43 1.98 -0.16 2.01 6.36 2.68 4.65 2.74 0.67
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.58 4.66 4.46 4.09 3.39 2.74 0.81 1.00 0.49 0.48 0.71 1.06 2.52 2.70 4.65 2.74 0.67
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 412.8 415.1 418.4 420.2 422.5 425.9 427.6 429.3 430.8 431.4 436.1 437.1 437.8 440.9 414.3 424.0 431.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.70 2.21 3.25 1.73 2.21 3.23 1.64 1.57 1.44 0.56 4.43 0.92 0.64 2.89 2.13 2.34 1.85
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.29 2.15 2.39 2.22 2.35 2.60 2.20 2.16 1.96 1.30 1.99 1.82 1.62 2.21 2.13 2.34 1.85
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 306.8 309.7 313.4 315.6 318.1 321.0 323.3 326.2 327.6 329.6 334.4 342.4 343.3 346.6 308.0 319.5 329.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.46 3.83 4.82 2.88 3.16 3.70 2.94 3.64 1.64 2.55 5.91 9.88 1.13 3.86 3.93 3.74 3.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.01 3.81 4.30 4.49 3.67 3.64 3.17 3.36 2.98 2.69 3.42 4.95 4.81 5.15 3.93 3.74 3.11
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 107.7 108.3 109.2 110.0 110.5 111.4 112.2 113.0 113.8 114.3 115.0 115.6 115.0 115.5 108.0 111.0 114.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.54 2.25 3.62 2.71 2.08 3.05 3.03 2.88 2.74 1.89 2.35 2.22 -2.17 1.87 1.79 2.82 2.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.70 2.17 2.63 3.03 2.66 2.86 2.72 2.76 2.93 2.63 2.47 2.30 1.05 1.05 1.79 2.82 2.69
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 424.5 425.3 425.2 427.2 426.2 428.6 429.5 429.4 429.9 430.6 432.0 431.1 432.2 433.1 424.8 427.9 430.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.13 0.79 -0.09 1.86 -0.90 2.27 0.87 -0.12 0.47 0.62 1.37 -0.86 1.02 0.80 0.18 0.72 0.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.20 0.17 0.07 0.67 0.41 0.78 1.02 0.52 0.87 0.46 0.58 0.40 0.54 0.58 0.18 0.72 0.61
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 49.1 49.2 49.1 49.0 49.1 49.5 49.4 49.3 49.2 49.1 48.7 48.9 48.8 48.9 49.1 49.2 49.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.82 0.54 -0.54 -0.54 0.54 3.02 -0.81 -0.27 -0.81 -0.81 -3.22 1.38 -1.09 1.37 1.45 0.31 -0.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.87 1.79 1.94 0.07 0.00 0.61 0.54 0.61 0.27 -0.67 -1.28 -0.88 -0.95 -0.41 1.45 0.31 -0.27
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 375.4 376.1 376.1 378.1 377.1 379.1 380.2 380.1 380.7 381.4 383.3 382.2 383.4 384.1 375.7 378.6 381.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.04 0.82 -0.04 2.18 -1.09 2.17 1.09 -0.11 0.63 0.81 1.97 -1.14 1.30 0.73 0.01 0.77 0.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.02 -0.04 -0.17 0.75 0.46 0.80 1.08 0.51 0.95 0.61 0.82 0.56 0.73 0.71 0.01 0.77 0.72
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (% )………… -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
53
54

APPENDIX B
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………… 210.0 211.5 213.3 216.4 219.1 220.4 221.0 221.9 222.2 221.6 222.3 221.8 222.7 226.3 210.8 219.2 222.0

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 2.83 2.95 3.45 5.85 5.14 2.38 1.11 1.70 0.50 -1.03 1.29 -0.92 1.63 6.55 2.78 3.97 1.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.92 2.87 2.87 3.76 4.34 4.19 3.60 2.57 1.42 0.57 0.61 -0.05 0.24 2.10 2.78 3.97 1.28

Historical Data
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………… 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.6 11.6 12.1 12.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 3.16 0.60 11.51 4.27 5.14 1.28 5.22 5.93 0.11 0.77 -2.23 -1.99 0.33 7.41 3.11 4.88 2.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 3.39 1.81 4.47 4.81 5.31 5.48 3.96 4.38 3.10 2.98 1.10 -0.84 -0.79 0.80 3.11 4.88 2.88

NONMETALLIC MINERALS……………… 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.0 12.7 13.3 13.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 8.01 5.96 8.66 7.46 0.38 4.58 -1.69 4.65 3.83 -0.88 2.71 1.19 2.02 6.73 5.40 5.20 2.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 5.35 6.12 6.33 7.52 5.57 5.22 2.62 1.94 2.81 1.44 2.55 1.69 1.25 3.14 5.40 5.20 2.18

PRIMARY METALS………….……………… 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 6.23 2.51 3.75 4.30 -1.32 -7.29 7.35 0.37 0.19 1.47 -2.02 -2.26 -10.59 2.87 2.73 1.69 0.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 3.03 2.70 3.58 4.19 2.29 -0.25 0.60 -0.36 0.02 2.30 -0.01 -0.67 -3.46 -3.13 2.73 1.69 0.48

FABRICATED METALS…………………... 34.9 35.2 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.6 35.4 35.4 35.5 35.5 35.9 35.7 36.2 36.5 35.2 35.6 35.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -0.36 3.34 2.85 1.78 0.73 -1.15 -1.96 -0.19 0.56 0.87 4.51 -2.70 6.43 3.30 2.08 1.23 -0.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.59 2.42 1.93 1.89 2.17 1.04 -0.16 -0.65 -0.69 -0.18 1.42 0.78 2.22 2.83 2.08 1.23 -0.03

MACHINERY………………………………… 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.7 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.3 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.4 25.3 25.5 25.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 2.71 0.12 0.56 -3.85 10.33 0.40 -6.75 0.70 0.52 -0.51 11.11 1.89 -0.87 4.14 -0.63 0.77 0.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 0.95 -0.66 -1.56 -0.14 1.66 1.73 -0.17 0.99 -1.33 -1.56 2.85 3.15 2.79 3.97 -0.63 0.77 0.22

COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS………… 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -4.82 -6.59 -7.12 -2.19 -2.40 0.78 3.72 -1.80 0.33 6.10 -4.38 -1.67 0.26 -2.36 -1.82 -3.19 0.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 0.10 -2.73 -5.28 -5.20 -4.60 -2.77 -0.05 0.05 0.74 2.04 -0.01 0.02 0.00 -2.05 -1.82 -3.19 0.70

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..……………… 19.7 19.7 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 3.61 -1.29 4.33 0.20 0.10 -1.14 -3.69 -5.28 -1.32 -2.38 0.14 0.36 0.36 4.05 1.98 0.55 -2.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.42 1.19 4.25 1.69 0.81 0.85 -1.14 -2.52 -2.87 -3.18 -2.23 -0.81 -0.38 1.22 1.98 0.55 -2.70

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT……… 66.3 67.3 67.8 70.3 72.1 73.4 74.3 75.0 75.0 74.4 73.9 73.7 74.2 76.2 66.8 72.5 74.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 4.17 6.01 3.01 15.68 10.56 7.33 5.36 3.81 -0.05 -3.50 -2.30 -1.45 2.90 11.33 4.69 8.64 2.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 4.31 5.34 4.54 7.10 8.71 9.05 9.66 6.73 4.08 1.35 -0.55 -1.83 -1.12 2.48 4.69 8.64 2.84

FURNITURE………………………………… 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.4 9.5
of jobs)
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 1.03 6.86 6.59 2.99 2.11 3.51 3.64 0.64 -0.24 -2.39 1.75 -1.91 1.30 3.34 0.57 3.94 1.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -0.97 0.88 3.99 4.34 4.62 3.79 3.06 2.47 1.87 0.39 -0.07 -0.71 -0.33 1.10 0.57 3.94 1.16

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………… 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.4 15.3 15.6 16.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.87 -0.15 1.77 2.80 2.57 1.48 0.99 3.62 3.39 2.98 2.77 0.24 0.70 5.39 3.67 1.79 2.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 5.05 2.87 1.32 1.32 1.74 2.16 1.96 2.16 2.36 2.74 3.19 2.34 1.67 2.26 3.67 1.79 2.61

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (thousands of jobs)
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 122.0 122.4 123.2 124.1 124.5 125.0 125.3 126.2 126.7 127.1 127.3 127.3 127.5 127.8 122.2 124.7 126.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.95 1.36 2.50 2.94 1.31 1.71 1.03 2.84 1.56 1.28 0.76 -0.10 0.65 0.90 1.96 2.08 1.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.34 1.90 2.21 2.44 2.03 2.11 1.75 1.72 1.78 1.68 1.61 0.87 0.65 0.55 1.96 2.08 1.70

FOOD……………………………………………… 33.3 33.3 33.4 33.9 34.1 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.7 35.7 33.3 34.3 35.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 2.24 -0.04 1.83 6.13 1.89 3.59 3.28 3.02 1.91 4.06 1.09 -0.52 2.67 -0.21 1.65 3.00 2.87
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.18 1.25 1.56 2.52 2.43 3.35 3.71 2.95 2.95 3.07 2.51 1.62 1.81 0.75 1.65 3.00 2.87

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO……………………… 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 5.9 6.6 6.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 13.30 6.30 11.17 17.74 7.79 9.45 2.81 1.80 8.52 10.51 7.41 7.94 9.02 7.17 7.72 10.85 5.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.82 8.95 8.27 12.05 10.66 11.48 9.32 5.41 5.59 5.84 7.01 8.59 8.71 7.88 7.72 10.85 5.97

PAPER…………………………………………… 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -0.85 -0.98 2.04 -2.34 0.44 -2.42 2.33 0.61 0.38 0.61 -0.79 -0.20 -0.60 1.79 0.05 -0.47 0.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.22 -0.99 0.88 -0.54 -0.22 -0.59 -0.52 0.23 0.21 0.98 0.20 0.00 -0.25 0.05 0.05 -0.47 0.40

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………… 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -3.75 -2.55 -0.85 5.56 -2.09 -2.17 -3.77 0.68 -1.98 -2.07 -0.84 -1.08 -0.47 1.01 -2.99 -0.28 -1.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -2.80 -3.46 -3.10 -0.46 -0.03 0.06 -0.68 -1.85 -1.83 -1.80 -1.06 -1.49 -1.12 -0.35 -2.99 -0.28 -1.64

CHEMICALS……………………………………… 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.6 25.3 24.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 4.11 2.04 -1.11 -2.21 -2.77 -2.29 -1.52 -1.79 -1.16 -0.88 0.66 0.32 -0.07 1.76 1.19 -1.17 -1.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.06 1.67 1.74 0.67 -1.03 -2.10 -2.20 -2.10 -1.69 -1.34 -0.80 -0.27 0.01 0.67 1.19 -1.17 -1.48

PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………… 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.1 21.9 23.2 24.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 5.18 3.76 8.37 6.23 2.97 6.86 4.28 9.48 6.94 0.25 -0.39 2.22 3.79 3.20 5.66 5.58 5.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.27 4.57 4.20 5.87 5.31 6.09 5.08 5.87 6.88 5.18 3.98 2.21 1.45 2.19 5.66 5.58 5.47

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS… 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.7 11.7 11.7
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 3.81 3.07 0.65 -3.29 5.90 -0.69 -4.95 4.42 -4.01 -1.88 1.69 -8.20 -12.69 -7.72 1.59 0.57 -0.50
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.26 4.17 4.44 1.02 1.53 0.59 -0.84 1.08 -1.37 -1.67 0.00 -3.17 -5.43 -6.87 1.59 0.57 -0.50

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
55
56

APPENDIX B
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019
Historical Data Annual
|

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 45902 45971 45377 46221 45522 45971 45699 46633 46348 46655 45821 47051 46476 46741 45758 45853 46364
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.67 3.90 2.83 0.96 -0.83 0.00 0.71 0.89 1.82 1.49 0.27 0.90 0.27 0.19 3.04 0.21 1.11

|
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING

Historical Data
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 52575 52087 52532 54889 52287 52111 54348 56099 53806 53898 54734 56254 55159 54540 52557 53409 54634
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.23 6.08 7.75 3.50 -0.55 0.05 3.46 2.20 2.91 3.43 0.71 0.28 2.51 1.19 5.48 1.62 2.29
MANUFACTURING…………………………… 55708 55646 55749 55640 55293 55938 56072 56218 55886 56417 55925 56474 56528 56491 55547 55736 56112
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.20 2.48 1.31 1.00 -0.74 0.53 0.58 1.04 1.07 0.86 -0.26 0.46 1.15 0.13 1.36 0.34 0.67
DURABLE GOODS………………………… 54905 54699 55003 55251 54441 55130 55113 55542 55102 55864 54968 55924 56134 55812 54506 54984 55369
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.31 2.40 1.11 3.43 -0.85 0.79 0.20 0.53 1.21 1.33 -0.26 0.69 1.87 -0.09 1.52 0.88 0.70
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 57090 57279 57039 56321 56793 57359 57762 57410 57262 57381 57595 57435 57217 57680 57344 57059 57412
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.04 2.64 1.64 -2.84 -0.52 0.14 1.27 1.93 0.83 0.04 -0.29 0.04 -0.08 0.52 1.12 -0.50 0.62
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 42265 42432 42178 42600 42620 43156 41832 43228 43074 43012 42279 43566 43212 43295 42316 42552 42898
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.42 3.71 2.26 0.50 0.84 1.71 -0.82 1.47 1.06 -0.33 1.07 0.78 0.32 0.66 2.83 0.56 0.81
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 67019 65649 66008 66586 66835 70598 67064 68168 67393 66712 66348 66929 66522 66578 66094 67771 67155
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 6.35 2.27 0.62 1.35 -0.27 7.54 1.60 2.37 0.83 -5.50 -1.07 -1.82 -1.29 -0.20 2.93 2.54 -0.91
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 28642 29482 28579 29187 29177 28896 28575 29443 29293 29119 29197 29910 29638 29783 28853 28959 29263
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.08 6.81 1.18 1.66 1.87 -1.99 -0.01 0.88 0.40 0.77 2.18 1.58 1.18 2.28 3.01 0.37 1.05
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 51617 51409 52587 52201 52389 52070 50740 53048 53287 53635 51056 53412 53139 52661 52061 51850 52757
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.02 1.34 5.19 -0.82 1.50 1.28 -3.51 1.62 1.72 3.01 0.62 0.69 -0.28 -1.81 2.39 -0.41 1.75
INFORMATION………………………………… 60100 60099 57901 59951 60346 62482 62173 66693 61773 63397 65685 66758 64713 65391 59761 61238 64387
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.18 2.98 -1.83 -1.63 0.41 3.97 7.38 11.25 2.36 1.46 5.65 0.10 4.76 3.15 0.52 2.47 5.14
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 67025 66391 67600 67915 66732 66783 67129 65805 65768 68065 68009 67631 66824 67745 66762 67140 66912
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.67 3.16 3.64 2.85 -0.44 0.59 -0.70 -3.11 -1.44 1.92 1.31 2.78 1.60 -0.47 1.57 0.57 -0.34
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54109 52978 50734 54154 52165 51970 52055 54258 53159 53736 51866 56586 54259 54647 52764 52586 53255
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 7.79 6.90 2.50 1.72 -3.59 -1.90 2.60 0.19 1.91 3.40 -0.36 4.29 2.07 1.69 5.52 -0.34 1.27
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 47052 47536 46723 46841 46386 46828 46785 47124 47957 47008 46224 46586 46986 47209 47036 46710 47078
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.81 5.05 4.46 0.02 -1.42 -1.49 0.13 0.60 3.39 0.39 -1.20 -1.14 -2.02 0.43 4.19 -0.69 0.79
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 22243 22115 23591 23440 22154 22309 23333 24303 22791 23270 23485 24187 22746 22527 22680 22809 23462
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.94 5.00 7.12 2.94 -0.40 0.88 -1.09 3.68 2.87 4.31 0.65 -0.48 -0.20 -3.19 5.11 0.57 2.86
OTHER SERVICES…………………………… 41456 41400 42313 42385 40951 41171 41457 41513 41277 41987 41638 42099 41796 41741 41731 41491 41604
(2012 dollars)
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.19 2.81 2.38 1.51 -1.22 -0.55 -2.02 -2.06 0.80 1.98 0.44 1.41 1.26 -0.59 2.27 -0.58 0.27
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 42657 43867 40947 41808 42649 43793 41729 42191 44018 44618 42126 42466 43438 44573 42370 42495 43238
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.59 0.79 1.00 -0.47 -0.02 -0.17 1.91 0.92 3.21 1.88 0.95 0.65 -1.32 -0.10 0.88 0.30 1.75
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………75527 74830 74628 74955 74687 74663 74503 74744 74892 74973 74536 74693 74870 75346 75397 74702 74786
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.11 -2.89 -3.04 -2.15 -1.11 -0.22 -0.17 -0.28 0.27 0.42 0.04 -0.07 -0.03 0.50 -1.33 -0.92 0.11
STATE & LOCAL…………………………… 38301 39677 36684 37575 38421 39636 37599 38021 39975 40583 38123 38424 39393 40489 38056 38308 39176
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.78 1.58 1.84 0.04 0.31 -0.10 2.50 1.19 4.04 2.39 1.39 1.06 -1.45 -0.23 1.30 0.66 2.27
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (2012 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 45930 45862 45911 45805 45527 45859 46215 46189 46335 46551 46299 46677 46480 46646 45766 45852 46344
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.11 -0.60 0.43 -0.92 -2.40 2.95 3.14 -0.23 1.27 1.88 -2.15 3.30 -1.68 1.44 3.05 0.19 1.07
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.65 3.94 2.84 0.98 -0.88 -0.01 0.66 0.84 1.77 1.51 0.18 1.06 0.31 0.20 3.05 0.19 1.07
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 52936 52983 53016 53115 52627 52954 54724 54414 54023 54778 55085 54860 55174 55446 52534 53355 54575
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 14.28 0.36 0.25 0.75 -3.63 2.51 14.06 -2.25 -2.84 5.71 2.26 -1.62 2.31 1.99 5.47 1.56 2.29
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.10 5.87 7.63 3.74 -0.58 -0.06 3.22 2.44 2.65 3.44 0.66 0.82 2.13 1.22 5.47 1.56 2.29
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 55735 55693 55830 55489 55317 55986 56147 56070 55910 56475 55990 56320 56562 56549 55545 55735 56111
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.06 -0.30 0.99 -2.42 -1.24 4.93 1.16 -0.55 -1.13 4.10 -3.39 2.38 1.73 -0.09 1.36 0.34 0.68
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.18 2.47 1.29 1.04 -0.75 0.52 0.57 1.05 1.07 0.87 -0.28 0.45 1.16 0.13 1.36 0.34 0.68
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 54937 54706 55070 55150 54469 55136 55175 55445 55127 55883 55018 55818 56171 55834 54504 54982 55368
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 12.85 -1.67 2.69 0.58 -4.85 4.99 0.28 1.98 -2.27 5.60 -6.05 5.95 2.55 -2.38 1.52 0.88 0.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.29 2.38 1.10 3.47 -0.85 0.79 0.19 0.54 1.21 1.36 -0.28 0.67 1.89 -0.09 1.52 0.88 0.70
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 57108 57400 57147 56081 56809 57484 57862 57169 57284 57506 57687 57195 57243 57805 57341 57059 57411
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.09 2.06 -1.75 -7.25 5.29 4.84 2.66 -4.70 0.81 1.56 1.27 -3.37 0.34 3.98 1.13 -0.49 0.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.01 2.65 1.62 -2.82 -0.52 0.15 1.25 1.94 0.84 0.04 -0.30 0.05 -0.07 0.52 1.13 -0.49 0.62
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 42105 42352 42971 42117 42440 43044 42563 42720 42857 42910 42906 43185 43121 43256 42333 42541 42848
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.95 2.37 5.97 -7.71 3.11 5.81 -4.40 1.48 1.29 0.50 -0.04 2.62 -0.59 1.26 2.87 0.49 0.72
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.46 3.76 2.29 0.51 0.80 1.63 -0.95 1.43 0.98 -0.31 0.81 1.09 0.62 0.80 2.87 0.49 0.72
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 67075 65795 66209 66252 66854 70696 67213 67810 67374 66804 66531 66527 66558 66832 66103 67754 67130
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 11.09 -7.41 2.54 0.26 3.68 25.05 -18.30 3.60 -2.54 -3.34 -1.63 -0.02 0.19 1.65 2.92 2.50 -0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 6.26 2.27 0.65 1.41 -0.33 7.45 1.52 2.35 0.78 -5.51 -1.01 -1.89 -1.21 0.04 2.92 2.50 -0.92
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 28548 29355 29198 28797 29078 28772 29146 29052 29177 28995 29671 29643 29629 29668 28853 28948 29224
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.40 11.80 -2.12 -5.38 3.95 -4.14 5.31 -1.28 1.72 -2.47 9.66 -0.38 -0.18 0.52 3.02 0.33 0.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.17 6.81 1.14 1.72 1.86 -1.99 -0.18 0.89 0.34 0.77 1.80 2.03 1.55 2.32 3.02 0.33 0.95
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 51184 51409 53882 51580 51909 51964 51931 52335 52713 53570 52120 52859 52737 52743 52131 51846 52684
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -6.47 1.77 20.67 -16.03 2.58 0.43 -0.26 3.15 2.93 6.66 -10.40 5.79 -0.92 0.04 2.51 -0.55 1.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.08 1.54 5.33 -0.90 1.42 1.08 -3.62 1.46 1.55 3.09 0.36 1.00 0.05 -1.54 2.51 -0.55 1.62

Historical Data
INFORMATION…………………………………… 60236 59920 58072 59773 61105 62436 62355 66352 62405 63350 65974 66709 65084 65006 59746 61417 64520
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.39 -2.08 -11.77 12.24 9.21 9.00 -0.51 28.21 -21.75 6.19 17.63 4.53 -9.40 -0.48 0.61 2.80 5.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.41 2.99 -1.76 -1.62 1.44 4.20 7.38 11.01 2.13 1.46 5.80 0.54 4.29 2.61 0.61 2.80 5.05
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 67117 66570 67781 67539 66849 67014 67245 65413 65852 68279 68123 67364 66852 67899 66785 67162 66917
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.10 -3.22 7.48 -1.42 -4.02 0.99 1.38 -10.46 2.71 15.58 -0.91 -4.38 -3.01 6.42 1.62 0.56 -0.36

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.83 3.18 3.63 2.84 -0.40 0.67 -0.79 -3.15 -1.49 1.89 1.31 2.98 1.52 -0.56 1.62 0.56 -0.36

APPENDIX B
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
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57
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APPENDIX B
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54017 52880 51706 53264 52002 51893 53168 53317 52980 53683 52786 55901 54016 54551 52741 52582 53192
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 13.24 -8.16 -8.58 12.60 -9.15 -0.83 10.20 1.13 -2.51 5.42 -6.52 25.78 -12.82 4.02 5.51 -0.30 1.16

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 7.78 6.93 2.48 1.72 -3.73 -1.87 2.83 0.10 1.88 3.45 -0.72 4.84 1.95 1.62 5.51 -0.30 1.16

Historical Data
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 46968 47364 47132 46803 46236 46549 47175 47083 47801 46732 46684 46579 46865 46813 47061 46691 47075
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.62 3.41 -1.94 -2.76 -4.76 2.74 5.49 -0.78 6.24 -8.65 -0.41 -0.89 2.48 -0.44 4.23 -0.79 0.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.77 5.21 4.49 0.05 -1.56 -1.72 0.09 0.60 3.39 0.39 -1.04 -1.07 -1.96 0.17 4.23 -0.79 0.82
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 22787 22598 23385 22579 22681 22816 23117 23409 23308 23785 23384 23207 23200 23134 22667 22798 23471
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 17.27 -3.27 14.68 -13.10 1.83 2.40 5.38 5.15 -1.71 8.44 -6.57 -2.99 -0.12 -1.14 5.09 0.58 2.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.88 4.72 7.14 3.11 -0.46 0.97 -1.15 3.68 2.76 4.25 1.16 -0.86 -0.46 -2.74 5.09 0.58 2.95
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 41841 41604 42132 41948 41309 41344 41284 41121 41640 42159 41372 41625 42269 42102 41729 41471 41573
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 4.94 -2.25 5.18 -1.73 -5.96 0.34 -0.58 -1.58 5.15 5.08 -7.25 2.47 6.33 -1.57 2.27 -0.62 0.24
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.11 2.83 2.39 1.47 -1.27 -0.62 -2.01 -1.97 0.80 1.97 0.21 1.23 1.51 -0.13 2.27 -0.62 0.24
GOVERNMENT……………………………………42225 42485 42173 42379 42179 42465 42941 42683 43533 43281 43228 43076 43022 43118 42369 42491 43181
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.40 2.48 -2.90 1.97 -1.88 2.74 4.55 -2.38 8.21 -2.30 -0.49 -1.40 -0.50 0.89 0.91 0.29 1.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.43 0.96 1.08 -0.50 -0.11 -0.05 1.82 0.72 3.21 1.92 0.67 0.92 -1.17 -0.38 0.91 0.29 1.63
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 75629 74728 74780 74955 74738 74462 74654 74744 74892 74770 74536 74438 74921 75500 75436 74702 74735
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.99 -4.68 0.28 0.93 -1.15 -1.47 1.04 0.48 0.79 -0.65 -1.24 -0.53 2.62 3.12 -1.30 -0.97 0.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.91 -2.89 -3.11 -2.15 -1.18 -0.36 -0.17 -0.28 0.21 0.41 -0.16 -0.41 0.04 0.98 -1.30 -0.97 0.04
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 37856 38270 37916 38155 37939 38290 38822 38521 39478 39225 39247 39064 38965 38989 38048 38302 39118
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.06 4.45 -3.65 2.54 -2.24 3.75 5.67 -3.07 10.31 -2.54 0.23 -1.86 -1.00 0.25 1.32 0.67 2.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.57 1.77 1.95 0.01 0.22 0.05 2.39 0.96 4.06 2.44 1.09 1.41 -1.30 -0.60 1.32 0.67 2.13

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 (current dollars)
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019
Historical Data Annual
2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 46977 47328 47542 46906 47806 47359 48033 47978 49211 49006 49527 48970 50592 50218 47188 47794 49179
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.02 3.92 4.14 3.13 1.76 0.06 1.03 2.29 2.94 3.48 3.11 2.07 2.81 2.47 3.30 1.28 2.90
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 54417 54209 53866 54303 56770 54397 54448 57060 59200 56892 57216 58496 60487 59601 54199 55669 57951
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.25 5.48 6.32 8.06 4.32 0.35 1.08 5.08 4.28 4.59 5.08 2.52 2.17 4.76 5.75 2.71 4.10
MANUFACTURING…………………………… 56524 57439 57547 57627 57548 57525 58447 58869 59326 59091 59890 59769 60723 61080 57284 58097 59519
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.28 2.44 2.72 1.60 1.81 0.15 1.56 2.15 3.09 2.72 2.47 1.53 2.36 3.37 1.61 1.42 2.45
DURABLE GOODS………………………… 54810 56611 56568 56857 57145 56638 57603 57862 58612 58262 59303 58746 60132 60654 56212 57312 58731
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.50 2.55 2.63 1.41 4.26 0.05 1.83 1.77 2.57 2.87 2.95 1.53 2.59 4.11 1.77 1.96 2.48
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 59481 58864 59236 58961 58252 59085 59932 60644 60584 60546 60913 61554 61756 61824 59135 59478 60899
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.43 2.27 2.88 1.94 -2.07 0.38 1.17 2.85 4.00 2.47 1.64 1.50 1.94 2.11 1.38 0.58 2.39
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 43495 43579 43882 43600 44060 44340 45091 43919 45618 45544 45660 45185 46844 46692 43639 44353 45502
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.21 3.66 3.95 2.56 1.30 1.75 2.76 0.73 3.53 2.72 1.26 2.88 2.69 2.52 3.09 1.64 2.59
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 67412 69102 67892 68232 68869 69533 73764 70409 71936 71258 70819 70908 71965 71878 68160 70644 71230
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.82 6.59 2.51 0.92 2.16 0.62 8.65 3.19 4.45 2.48 -3.99 0.71 0.04 0.87 3.18 3.64 0.83
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 29458 29532 30489 29542 30188 30354 30192 30001 31071 30973 30912 31204 32160 32025 29755 30184 31040
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.30 3.32 7.06 1.47 2.48 2.78 -0.98 1.55 2.93 2.04 2.38 4.01 3.51 3.39 3.27 1.44 2.84
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 54005 53221 53166 54359 53990 54503 54405 53271 55981 56343 56936 54565 57431 57418 53688 54042 55956
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.31 1.25 1.58 5.50 -0.03 2.41 2.33 -2.00 3.69 3.38 4.65 2.43 2.59 1.91 2.65 0.66 3.54
INFORMATION………………………………… 62533 61967 62152 59852 62006 62782 65284 65275 70380 65316 67299 70200 71781 69924 61626 63837 68299
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.03 1.42 3.22 -1.54 -0.84 1.31 5.04 9.06 13.51 4.04 3.09 7.54 1.99 7.06 0.77 3.59 6.99
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 67754 69109 68660 69879 70243 69425 69779 70478 69442 69540 72255 72683 72720 72205 68850 69981 70980
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.73 2.91 3.40 3.94 3.67 0.46 1.63 0.86 -1.14 0.17 3.55 3.13 4.72 3.83 1.84 1.64 1.43
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 54625 55791 54788 52444 56010 54271 54301 54652 57257 56208 57044 55431 60844 58628 54412 54808 56485
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.13 8.04 7.14 2.80 2.53 -2.72 -0.89 4.21 2.23 3.57 5.05 1.43 6.26 4.31 5.79 0.73 3.06
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 48054 48514 49160 48297 48446 48258 48928 49119 49729 50707 49902 49401 50091 50770 48506 48688 49935
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.69 4.06 5.30 4.76 0.82 -0.53 -0.47 1.70 2.65 5.08 1.99 0.57 0.73 0.12 4.45 0.37 2.56
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 23366 22934 22871 24386 24244 23049 23310 24498 25646 24098 24702 25099 26007 24577 23389 23775 24886

Historical Data
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.68 6.19 5.24 7.43 3.76 0.50 1.92 0.46 5.78 4.55 5.97 2.45 1.41 1.99 5.38 1.65 4.67
OTHER SERVICES…………………………… 42846 42744 42814 43738 43838 42603 43018 43525 43807 43644 44572 44500 45266 45162 43036 43246 44131
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.99 3.43 3.05 2.67 2.32 -0.33 0.48 -0.49 -0.07 2.44 3.61 2.24 3.33 3.48 2.53 0.49 2.05
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 43103 43983 45366 42327 43241 44370 45758 43811 44524 46543 47365 45022 45661 46935 43695 44295 45863
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.41 0.83 1.02 1.29 0.32 0.88 0.86 3.51 2.97 4.90 3.51 2.76 2.55 0.84 1.13 1.37 3.54

|
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………78602 77874 77387 77143 77524 77702 78012 78220 78876 79187 79589 79659 80312 80899 77752 77864 79328
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.02 -0.88 -2.66 -2.75 -1.37 -0.22 0.81 1.40 1.74 1.91 2.02 1.84 1.82 2.16 -1.09 0.15 1.88

APPENDIX B
STATE & LOCAL…………………………… 38541 39492 41032 37920 38863 39972 41413 39475 40123 42267 43082 40744 41315 42565 39246 39931 41554
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.26 1.01 1.81 2.14 0.84 1.22 0.93 4.10 3.24 5.74 4.03 3.21 2.97 0.71 1.55 1.74 4.06
|

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
59
60

APPENDIX B
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 46545 47358 47429 47458 47375 47365 47916 48521 48742 48992 49417 49482 50189 50222 47198 47794 49158

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 4.70 7.17 0.60 0.25 -0.70 -0.09 4.74 5.15 1.83 2.07 3.51 0.53 5.84 0.26 3.31 1.26 2.85
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.03 3.90 4.18 3.14 1.78 0.01 1.03 2.24 2.89 3.44 3.13 1.98 2.97 2.51 3.31 1.26 2.85

Historical Data
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 52534 54581 54794 54803 54936 54751 55329 57454 57422 57121 58150 58871 58987 59616 54178 55617 57891
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 14.65 16.52 1.57 0.06 0.98 -1.34 4.29 16.27 -0.22 -2.08 7.40 5.05 0.80 4.33 5.73 2.66 4.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.54 5.34 6.11 7.95 4.57 0.31 0.98 4.84 4.52 4.33 5.10 2.47 2.73 4.37 5.73 2.66 4.09
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 56353 57467 57597 57712 57392 57549 58497 58948 59169 59117 59951 59838 60558 61116 57282 58096 59519
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.20 8.14 0.90 0.80 -2.20 1.10 6.75 3.12 1.51 -0.36 5.77 -0.75 4.90 3.74 1.62 1.42 2.45
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.23 2.42 2.71 1.58 1.84 0.14 1.56 2.14 3.10 2.72 2.49 1.51 2.35 3.38 1.62 1.42 2.45
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 54692 56645 56575 56926 57041 56667 57609 57927 58510 58289 59323 58799 60018 60694 56210 57311 58730
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.95 15.06 -0.49 2.50 0.81 -2.59 6.81 2.23 4.09 -1.50 7.29 -3.49 8.55 4.58 1.78 1.96 2.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.55 2.53 2.62 1.39 4.29 0.04 1.83 1.76 2.58 2.86 2.98 1.51 2.58 4.13 1.78 1.96 2.48
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 59213 58883 59361 59073 58004 59101 60062 60748 60329 60569 61046 61652 61498 61852 59132 59479 60899
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 8.90 -2.21 3.29 -1.93 -7.04 7.79 6.66 4.65 -2.73 1.60 3.19 4.03 -0.99 2.33 1.39 0.59 2.39
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.38 2.25 2.89 1.91 -2.04 0.37 1.18 2.84 4.01 2.48 1.64 1.49 1.94 2.12 1.39 0.59 2.39
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 42995 43414 43800 44419 43560 44153 44975 44687 45081 45314 45552 45855 46434 46593 43657 44344 45451
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.76 3.95 3.60 5.77 -7.51 5.56 7.65 -2.54 3.58 2.08 2.11 2.69 5.14 1.38 3.13 1.57 2.50
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.23 3.71 4.00 2.59 1.32 1.70 2.68 0.60 3.49 2.63 1.28 2.62 3.00 2.82 3.13 1.57 2.50
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 67038 69159 68043 68440 68523 69552 73867 70566 71558 71238 70916 71103 71532 71917 68170 70627 71204
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.41 13.27 -6.30 2.36 0.48 6.14 27.22 -16.71 5.74 -1.78 -1.79 1.06 2.44 2.17 3.17 3.60 0.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.85 6.51 2.51 0.95 2.22 0.57 8.56 3.11 4.43 2.42 -3.99 0.76 -0.04 0.95 3.17 3.60 0.82
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………29049 29435 30358 30182 29784 30251 30062 30601 30658 30850 30780 31710 31873 32015 29756 30175 31000
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.17 5.43 13.15 -2.30 -5.17 6.42 -2.47 7.36 0.76 2.52 -0.91 12.65 2.07 1.79 3.28 1.41 2.73
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.34 3.41 7.06 1.43 2.53 2.77 -0.97 1.39 2.93 1.98 2.39 3.63 3.96 3.78 3.28 1.41 2.73
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………53405 52775 53166 55698 53348 54004 54295 54521 55228 55736 56868 55702 56836 56983 53761 54042 55883
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.27 -4.64 2.99 20.45 -15.84 5.01 2.17 1.68 5.28 3.74 8.37 -7.95 8.39 1.04 2.77 0.52 3.41
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.30 1.32 1.78 5.64 -0.11 2.33 2.12 -2.11 3.52 3.21 4.74 2.17 2.91 2.24 2.77 0.52 3.41
INFORMATION…………………………………… 62341 62108 61967 60029 61822 63571 65236 65466 70020 65984 67250 70509 71729 70324 61611 64024 68441
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.61 -1.49 -0.90 -11.93 12.49 11.80 10.89 1.42 30.86 -21.14 7.90 20.84 7.10 -7.60 0.86 3.92 6.90
(current dollars)
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted

% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.11 1.65 3.23 -1.47 -0.83 2.36 5.28 9.06 13.26 3.80 3.09 7.70 2.44 6.58 0.86 3.92 6.90
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 67384 69202 68845 70065 69854 69547 70020 70599 69029 69628 72483 72805 72432 72234 68874 70005 70986
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.17 11.24 -2.05 7.28 -1.20 -1.75 2.75 3.35 -8.61 3.52 17.43 1.79 -2.03 -1.09 1.89 1.64 1.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.73 3.07 3.42 3.94 3.67 0.50 1.71 0.76 -1.18 0.12 3.52 3.12 4.93 3.74 1.89 1.64 1.40
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 53729 55695 54687 53449 55090 54100 54220 55821 56265 56018 56988 56414 60107 58365 54390 54808 56421
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 13.94 15.46 -7.05 -8.75 12.86 -6.99 0.89 12.34 3.22 -1.74 7.10 -3.97 28.87 -11.10 5.77 0.77 2.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.14 8.03 7.18 2.78 2.53 -2.86 -0.85 4.44 2.13 3.55 5.10 1.06 6.83 4.19 5.77 0.77 2.94
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 48000 48428 48982 48721 48408 48102 48637 49529 49686 50543 49609 49892 50084 50638 48533 48669 49932
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 13.64 3.62 4.66 -2.12 -2.54 -2.50 4.52 7.54 1.27 7.08 -7.19 2.30 1.54 4.50 4.49 0.28 2.60
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.68 4.02 5.45 4.80 0.85 -0.67 -0.71 1.66 2.64 5.07 2.00 0.73 0.80 0.19 4.49 0.28 2.60
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 22468 23495 23370 24173 23353 23597 23840 24270 24703 24645 25249 24991 24953 25069 23377 23765 24897
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.49 19.57 -2.11 14.47 -12.91 4.25 4.18 7.42 7.32 -0.94 10.18 -4.02 -0.61 1.86 5.36 1.66 4.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.82 6.13 4.96 7.46 3.94 0.43 2.01 0.40 5.78 4.44 5.91 2.97 1.01 1.72 5.36 1.66 4.76
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 42417 43141 43025 43552 43386 42976 43198 43344 43394 44028 44754 44216 44757 45672 43034 43226 44098
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.05 7.00 -1.07 4.98 -1.51 -3.73 2.08 1.36 0.46 5.98 6.76 -4.72 4.99 8.43 2.53 0.45 2.02
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.00 3.35 3.07 2.69 2.28 -0.38 0.40 -0.48 0.02 2.45 3.60 2.01 3.14 3.73 2.53 0.45 2.02
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 43702 43538 43937 43594 43832 43881 44370 45083 45042 46030 45946 46199 46317 46487 43693 44291 45804
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.67 -1.50 3.72 -3.08 2.20 0.45 4.53 6.59 -0.36 9.07 -0.73 2.23 1.03 1.47 1.16 1.37 3.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.40 0.67 1.20 1.37 0.30 0.79 0.99 3.41 2.76 4.90 3.55 2.48 2.83 0.99 1.16 1.37 3.42
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 78602 77980 77282 77301 77524 77755 77801 78379 78876 79187 79373 79659 80039 80954 77791 77865 79274
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.66 -3.13 -3.53 0.10 1.16 1.20 0.24 3.00 2.56 1.59 0.94 1.45 1.92 4.65 -1.06 0.09 1.81
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.02 -0.68 -2.66 -2.82 -1.37 -0.29 0.67 1.39 1.74 1.84 2.02 1.63 1.47 2.23 -1.06 0.09 1.81
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 39146 39032 39578 39194 39463 39470 40008 40759 40651 41742 41640 41945 42003 42103 39238 39925 41494
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 8.79 -1.16 5.71 -3.83 2.77 0.08 5.56 7.73 -1.06 11.18 -0.97 2.96 0.56 0.95 1.58 1.75 3.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.24 0.80 2.01 2.25 0.81 1.12 1.09 3.99 3.01 5.75 4.08 2.91 3.33 0.86 1.58 1.75 3.93

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
61
62

APPENDIX B
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

Historical Data Annual

|

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)…………… 3081 3061 3065 3094 3131 3157 3157 3171 3196 3219 3209 3219 3265 3257 3063 3135 3199

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.73 1.18 1.25 1.64 1.64 3.15 2.98 2.50 2.07 1.95 1.65 1.52 2.14 1.19 1.32 2.35 2.04

Historical Data
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2905 2889 2915 2946 2990 2999 3014 3028 3083 3102 3108 3103 3157 3132 2891 2987 3080
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.51 2.57 2.55 3.23 2.90 3.81 3.40 2.79 3.11 3.44 3.13 2.48 2.41 0.94 2.36 3.34 3.12

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……… 176 172 151 148 142 158 143 143 114 116 101 116 108 125 172 148 119
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -9.59 -17.71 -18.71 -22.18 -19.32 -8.07 -5.09 -3.13 -19.80 -26.32 -29.48 -18.91 -5.01 7.85 -13.50 -14.19 -19.70

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 59.8 59.3 59.2 59.6 60.1 60.4 60.3 60.4 60.7 60.9 60.5 60.6 61.3 60.9 59.4 60.1 60.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.76 0.19 0.23 0.58 0.52 1.99 1.80 1.30 0.87 0.74 0.46 0.34 0.97 0.04 0.33 1.22 0.84

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………… 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.9 5.6 4.7 3.7

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
 Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3063 3060 3074 3099 3121 3150 3169 3176 3187 3210 3220 3222 3238 3254 3063 3135 3198
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 1.20 -0.31 1.85 3.25 2.91 3.78 2.35 0.90 1.43 2.91 1.20 0.26 2.07 2.01 1.29 2.35 2.02
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.51 1.28 1.25 1.49 1.91 2.94 3.07 2.48 2.11 1.89 1.61 1.45 1.61 1.38 1.29 2.35 2.02

EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2885 2894 2920 2952 2975 3001 3019 3037 3067 3102 3113 3113 3126 3138 2891 2987 3080
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 2.53 1.34 3.55 4.51 3.15 3.51 2.45 2.40 3.99 4.60 1.52 0.00 1.67 1.54 2.37 3.30 3.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.98 3.13 3.68 3.40 2.88 3.09 3.36 3.12 2.51 1.93 1.18 2.37 3.30 3.11

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…… 178 166 155 147 146 150 150 139 120 108 106 108 112 116 171 148 118
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… -17.72 -24.37 -24.66 -18.47 -1.84 9.22 0.34 -26.06 -43.66 -33.76 -7.54 8.13 14.06 15.77 -14.01 -13.58 -20.01
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -11.15 -16.69 -20.26 -21.37 -17.82 -9.92 -3.23 -5.56 -17.80 -27.46 -28.93 -21.85 -6.78 7.19 -14.01 -13.58 -20.01

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 59.5 59.3 59.4 59.7 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.4 60.5 60.7 60.7 60.6 60.8 60.9 59.4 60.1 60.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 0.31 -1.39 0.63 2.17 1.82 2.52 1.03 -0.24 0.30 1.65 -0.03 -0.81 0.98 0.78 0.31 1.22 0.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.54 0.29 0.23 0.42 0.80 1.78 1.88 1.28 0.90 0.68 0.42 0.27 0.44 0.23 0.31 1.22 0.82

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)……… 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 5.6 4.7 3.7

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
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63
64

APPENDIX B
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES……………………………27806 27687 30227 26646 28835 28395 30800 26460 29641 29729 32395 28342 30967 30758 110262 114675 118225

|
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.71 7.30 7.13 8.57 3.70 2.56 1.89 -0.70 2.80 4.70 5.18 7.11 4.47 3.46 6.39 4.00 3.10

Historical Data
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2917 3046 2795 2953 3017 3176 2962 2932 3113 3134 2963 3029 3134 3223 11447 12107 12142
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.39 12.95 10.97 9.83 3.40 4.27 5.96 -0.73 3.19 -1.31 0.05 3.31 0.69 2.83 11.46 5.77 0.29
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1167 1205 1437 1010 1232 1232 1534 1093 1233 1239 1609 1111 1338 1335 4747 5008 5175
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.20 9.70 8.65 7.77 5.58 2.24 6.68 8.23 0.14 0.53 4.95 1.59 8.48 7.78 8.92 5.50 3.34
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4824 4611 4928 4361 5049 4806 5109 4491 5169 5004 5485 4587 5501 5338 18108 19325 20149
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.16 5.52 9.80 16.44 4.66 4.23 3.69 3.00 2.37 4.12 7.35 2.13 6.42 6.68 6.03 6.72 4.26
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3008 2982 2975 2878 3129 3069 3025 2877 3197 3095 3013 2959 3239 3167 11672 12101 12182
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.70 7.40 7.32 6.28 4.04 2.92 1.69 -0.03 2.16 0.85 -0.38 2.87 1.31 2.32 7.18 3.67 0.67
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2653 2694 2887 2593 2684 2750 3021 2573 2752 2933 3180 2831 2894 2975 10766 11048 11438
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.92 3.87 1.93 2.43 1.15 2.09 4.65 -0.76 2.53 6.63 5.25 10.02 5.17 1.45 3.50 2.63 3.52
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 224 223 285 227 241 212 252 187 216 208 244 196 220 208 944 932 856
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.23 8.16 8.84 7.45 7.41 -5.05 -11.60 -17.58 -10.10 -1.70 -3.02 4.42 1.58 0.05 8.43 -1.27 -8.10
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 850 883 795 700 943 967 849 662 945 952 853 677 962 972 3137 3460 3412
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.40 14.01 11.80 14.86 11.01 9.51 6.81 -5.42 0.22 -1.58 0.45 2.17 1.71 2.19 11.74 10.27 -1.37
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 8335 8250 9855 8175 8648 8431 9806 7994 8755 8858 10298 8751 9299 9207 33944 35060 35906
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.23 8.03 7.77 8.95 3.75 2.20 -0.50 -2.21 1.24 5.06 5.02 9.47 6.21 3.93 5.99 3.29 2.41
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2266 2227 2675 2199 2363 2274 2666 2025 2399 2262 2636 2193 2352 2313 9201 9503 9322
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.38 5.78 5.93 8.18 4.32 2.11 -0.34 -7.93 1.52 -0.55 -1.11 8.33 -1.97 2.25 4.48 3.28 -1.90
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1562 1566 1595 1550 1529 1477 1576 1625 1861 2044 2113 2008 2028 2020 6297 6132 7643
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.67 1.24 -2.58 -1.58 -2.09 -5.68 -1.18 4.83 21.73 38.43 34.04 23.56 8.97 -1.19 2.61 -2.62 24.64
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4216 4198 4583 4006 4335 4269 4631 3943 4417 4430 4827 4187 4575 4544 16719 17241 17618
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.89 6.48 6.32 7.66 2.83 1.69 1.03 -1.58 1.89 3.77 4.25 6.18 3.56 2.56 5.57 3.12 2.18

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)

Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES……………………………27499 27909 28317 28676 28547 28570 28843 28512 29373 29895 30337 30509 30714 30932 110049 114636 118117
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 19.08 6.10 5.98 5.17 -1.78 0.32 3.88 -4.51 12.63 7.30 6.05 2.29 2.72 2.87 6.33 4.17 3.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.85 7.10 6.91 8.93 3.81 2.37 1.86 -0.57 2.89 4.64 5.18 7.00 4.57 3.47 6.33 4.17 3.04
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2869 2923 2935 2989 2967 3052 3095 2974 3063 3013 3090 3075 3086 3098 11435 12102 12141
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 25.77 7.75 1.60 7.62 -2.92 11.96 5.73 -14.68 12.54 -6.41 10.61 -1.91 1.46 1.57 11.41 5.83 0.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.68 12.98 10.24 10.33 3.42 4.41 5.46 -0.49 3.25 -1.27 -0.15 3.39 0.75 2.83 11.41 5.83 0.32
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1167 1216 1216 1216 1238 1250 1290 1311 1243 1262 1350 1328 1352 1360 4729 4994 5166
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 13.39 17.85 0.09 -0.11 7.44 4.21 13.22 6.62 -19.02 6.16 30.98 -6.30 7.28 2.51 9.08 5.59 3.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 10.01 10.12 7.80 7.51 6.07 2.86 6.08 7.82 0.46 0.93 4.67 1.35 8.73 7.78 9.08 5.59 3.46
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4571 4603 4729 4830 4799 4801 4889 4973 4923 5001 5241 5076 5246 5335 18053 19319 20138
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 47.11 2.83 11.44 8.84 -2.55 0.10 7.54 7.10 -4.00 6.54 20.57 -12.00 14.10 6.97 5.85 7.01 4.24
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.59 5.61 9.35 16.39 5.00 4.30 3.37 2.96 2.57 4.18 7.20 2.06 6.57 6.68 5.85 7.01 4.24
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2900 2945 2995 3010 3013 3030 3048 3011 3074 3056 3040 3095 3114 3127 11667 12101 12181
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 10.88 6.27 6.99 1.98 0.48 2.19 2.45 -4.77 8.64 -2.35 -2.03 7.43 2.50 1.59 7.19 3.72 0.66
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.43 7.37 7.31 6.48 3.89 2.88 1.77 0.04 2.01 0.86 -0.26 2.79 1.31 2.32 7.19 3.72 0.66
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2701 2697 2691 2738 2740 2747 2818 2714 2815 2926 2967 2985 2964 2968 10765 11043 11421
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 3.97 -0.70 -0.82 7.13 0.25 1.10 10.72 -13.90 15.59 16.74 5.76 2.44 -2.81 0.58 3.54 2.58 3.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.24 3.62 1.98 2.34 1.41 1.87 4.71 -0.86 2.73 6.50 5.28 9.96 5.29 1.45 3.54 2.58 3.43
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 229 237 246 249 244 225 217 206 218 222 211 216 221 222 942 935 857
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -2.47 15.93 14.80 5.21 -7.38 -27.53 -12.93 -19.50 25.49 6.55 -17.60 9.04 9.48 1.86 8.39 -0.66 -8.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.55 8.15 8.94 8.10 6.72 -5.11 -11.45 -17.18 -10.65 -1.61 -2.96 4.69 1.18 0.05 8.39 -0.66 -8.42
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 779 802 806 859 861 875 859 822 859 861 861 845 871 879 3125 3454 3403
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 23.80 12.82 1.66 29.01 1.08 6.64 -7.03 -16.30 19.30 0.84 0.36 -7.59 12.97 4.08 11.56 10.53 -1.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.04 13.16 11.89 16.34 10.59 9.04 6.63 -4.30 -0.25 -1.64 0.26 2.77 1.38 2.19 11.56 10.53 -1.48
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 8430 8583 8780 8816 8768 8738 8730 8639 8893 9152 9176 9453 9459 9512 33856 35052 35860
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 19.47 7.47 9.52 1.65 -2.16 -1.39 -0.36 -4.07 12.25 12.20 1.05 12.64 0.25 2.26 5.91 3.53 2.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.38 7.71 7.51 9.34 4.02 1.80 -0.57 -2.00 1.42 4.75 5.11 9.42 6.37 3.93 5.91 3.53 2.31
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2285 2326 2364 2396 2383 2369 2357 2209 2419 2353 2332 2393 2372 2406 9182 9505 9313

Historical Data
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 14.94 7.50 6.68 5.41 -2.16 -2.19 -2.01 -22.96 43.96 -10.45 -3.53 10.80 -3.43 5.88 4.39 3.52 -2.02
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.36 5.45 5.89 8.57 4.28 1.85 -0.29 -7.81 1.54 -0.68 -1.07 8.34 -1.95 2.25 4.39 3.52 -2.02
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1569 1577 1555 1574 1535 1483 1540 1653 1866 2049 2068 2043 2030 2025 6296 6132 7636
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -6.26 2.08 -5.39 4.88 -9.62 -12.77 16.23 32.65 62.53 45.41 3.75 -4.70 -2.63 -0.99 2.69 -2.61 24.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.68 0.98 -2.56 -1.29 -2.18 -5.96 -0.99 5.00 21.59 38.16 34.29 23.64 8.77 -1.19 2.69 -2.61 24.53

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PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4170 4232 4294 4311 4292 4295 4337 4249 4377 4455 4521 4507 4537 4569 16687 17235 17602

APPENDIX B
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 19.08 6.10 5.98 1.66 -1.78 0.32 3.88 -7.84 12.63 7.30 6.05 -1.23 2.72 2.87 5.52 3.29 2.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.02 6.28 6.10 8.01 2.94 1.50 1.00 -1.45 1.98 3.71 4.25 6.07 3.66 2.57 5.52 3.29 2.13
|

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
65
66

APPENDIX B
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) January 2019
|

Historical Data Annual

2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2018:3 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES……………………………28670 28633 31246 27560 29999 29668 32336 27923 31341 31559 34621 30474 33461 33365 113731 119563 125444
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.96 7.55 7.45 9.44 4.63 3.62 3.49 1.32 4.48 6.37 7.07 9.14 6.76 5.72 6.66 5.13 4.92

|
Historical Data
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3008 3150 2889 3054 3138 3318 3110 3094 3291 3327 3167 3257 3387 3496 11806 12620 12879
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.65 13.21 11.30 10.71 4.33 5.34 7.62 1.29 4.87 0.27 1.85 5.27 2.90 5.08 11.75 6.90 2.05
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1203 1246 1486 1045 1281 1288 1610 1154 1304 1315 1720 1194 1446 1448 4897 5224 5493
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.46 9.96 8.96 8.63 6.53 3.30 8.35 10.42 1.77 2.13 6.83 3.51 10.86 10.14 9.20 6.67 5.15
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4974 4769 5094 4510 5253 5022 5364 4740 5465 5312 5861 4932 5944 5791 18679 20149 21378
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.42 5.77 10.12 17.37 5.60 5.30 5.31 5.09 4.04 5.78 9.27 4.07 8.76 9.01 6.30 7.87 6.10
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3101 3084 3075 2976 3256 3206 3176 3036 3380 3285 3220 3182 3500 3435 12038 12614 12922
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.95 7.65 7.63 7.13 4.98 3.98 3.28 2.00 3.83 2.46 1.41 4.82 3.53 4.55 7.46 4.79 2.44
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2736 2786 2984 2682 2792 2874 3172 2716 2910 3113 3398 3044 3127 3227 11103 11520 12137
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.17 4.11 2.23 3.25 2.06 3.14 6.29 1.25 4.21 8.33 7.14 12.10 7.48 3.66 3.76 3.75 5.36
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 231 231 295 235 250 221 264 198 229 221 261 210 237 226 974 971 909
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.49 8.41 9.16 8.31 8.37 -4.07 -10.22 -15.91 -8.63 -0.13 -1.28 6.40 3.81 2.24 8.71 -0.22 -6.45
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 876 913 822 724 981 1010 891 699 1000 1010 911 728 1039 1055 3237 3607 3620
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.66 14.28 12.13 15.78 12.01 10.64 8.48 -3.50 1.86 -0.01 2.25 4.10 3.94 4.42 12.03 11.46 0.36
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 8595 8532 10187 8455 8997 8810 10295 8436 9257 9404 11006 9409 10048 9987 35013 36557 38103
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.48 8.29 8.08 9.82 4.68 3.26 1.06 -0.22 2.89 6.74 6.90 11.54 8.54 6.20 6.27 4.41 4.23
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2336 2303 2765 2274 2459 2376 2799 2137 2537 2401 2818 2358 2542 2509 9490 9908 9892
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.63 6.03 6.24 9.04 5.26 3.17 1.22 -6.06 3.18 1.04 0.67 10.37 0.18 4.48 4.75 4.41 -0.16
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1610 1619 1649 1603 1591 1543 1655 1715 1968 2170 2258 2159 2192 2191 6494 6392 8111
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.94 1.48 -2.30 -0.79 -1.21 -4.71 0.37 6.96 23.72 40.65 36.45 25.90 11.36 0.97 2.87 -1.58 26.90
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4347 4342 4738 4144 4510 4461 4862 4161 4670 4703 5159 4502 4943 4929 17245 17976 18694
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.14 6.72 6.63 8.52 3.75 2.74 2.62 0.42 3.55 5.43 6.12 8.19 5.83 4.80 5.84 4.24 3.99

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
 Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)

Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Historical Data Annual

2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1 2018:2 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES……………………………27011 28353 28862 29271 29659 29700 29851 30282 30088 31057 31735 32422 32804 33187 113498 119492 125303
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -4.16 21.42 7.38 5.79 5.40 0.55 2.06 5.90 -2.53 13.52 9.02 8.94 4.80 4.75 6.60 5.28 4.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.66 8.10 7.35 7.22 9.80 4.75 3.43 3.45 1.45 4.57 6.31 7.07 9.03 6.86 6.60 5.28 4.86
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2780 2958 3023 3033 3091 3087 3189 3249 3139 3239 3199 3302 3307 3335 11794 12616 12879
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 5.35 28.24 9.05 1.42 7.87 -0.62 13.90 7.79 -12.92 13.43 -4.91 13.63 0.50 3.47 11.69 6.97 2.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.00 13.94 13.25 10.56 11.21 4.35 5.49 7.11 1.53 4.94 0.31 1.64 5.35 2.96 11.69 6.97 2.08
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1160 1203 1257 1257 1257 1288 1307 1354 1383 1315 1340 1443 1428 1461 4877 5206 5481
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -0.84 15.61 19.27 -0.09 0.12 9.99 6.02 15.42 8.82 -18.39 7.86 34.56 -4.00 9.40 9.36 6.73 5.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.69 10.27 10.38 8.11 8.37 7.03 3.92 7.74 10.01 2.10 2.54 6.55 3.26 11.11 9.36 6.73 5.28
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4258 4713 4760 4889 4996 4993 5016 5133 5248 5205 5309 5601 5458 5668 18620 20137 21363
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………-16.69 50.00 4.07 11.24 9.09 -0.23 1.84 9.64 9.31 -3.24 8.24 23.86 -9.84 16.35 6.12 8.15 6.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.88 7.84 5.86 9.67 17.32 5.95 5.37 4.99 5.05 4.24 5.85 9.12 4.00 8.90 6.12 8.15 6.09
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2900 2991 3046 3096 3113 3135 3166 3200 3178 3250 3244 3249 3328 3365 12032 12614 12921
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 3.32 13.06 7.55 6.80 2.21 2.86 3.97 4.44 -2.80 9.49 -0.79 0.65 10.07 4.53 7.46 4.83 2.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.89 8.69 7.63 7.62 7.33 4.83 3.94 3.37 2.08 3.68 2.47 1.53 4.74 3.53 7.46 4.83 2.44
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2745 2785 2789 2782 2832 2850 2870 2959 2865 2976 3106 3171 3209 3202 11101 11511 12117
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 3.74 6.01 0.49 -1.00 7.37 2.63 2.85 12.87 -12.12 16.50 18.61 8.64 4.96 -0.88 3.80 3.69 5.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.61 4.48 3.87 2.28 3.16 2.33 2.92 6.35 1.15 4.41 8.20 7.17 12.04 7.60 3.80 3.69 5.26
LIQUOR STORES……………………………… 236 236 245 254 257 254 235 228 217 231 235 226 232 238 971 975 909
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 6.56 -0.55 17.33 14.59 5.44 -5.18 -26.27 -11.24 -17.84 26.47 8.26 -15.35 11.73 11.64 8.66 0.37 -6.78
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.15 8.80 8.41 9.25 8.97 7.68 -4.13 -10.06 -15.50 -9.19 -0.04 -1.22 6.67 3.40 8.66 0.37 -6.78
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 757 803 830 833 888 896 914 902 867 908 914 921 908 941 3223 3600 3610
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… 8.43 26.23 14.18 1.48 29.30 3.48 8.49 -5.23 -14.57 20.24 2.45 3.10 -5.32 15.20 11.85 11.71 0.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.30 12.31 13.43 12.22 17.27 11.59 10.17 8.30 -2.36 1.38 -0.07 2.06 4.72 3.60 11.85 11.71 0.26
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 8273 8692 8876 9076 9118 9122 9129 9165 9117 9403 9716 9807 10164 10221 34917 36535 38042
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -6.68 21.81 8.76 9.32 1.88 0.16 0.32 1.58 -2.09 13.13 13.99 3.81 15.41 2.23 6.18 4.63 4.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.21 6.63 7.96 7.82 10.21 4.95 2.86 0.98 -0.01 3.08 6.42 7.00 11.49 8.70 6.18 4.63 4.12
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2264 2356 2406 2444 2478 2479 2476 2475 2331 2558 2498 2493 2573 2563 9469 9907 9879
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -6.32 17.20 8.79 6.49 5.65 0.16 -0.49 -0.10 -21.37 45.10 -9.02 -0.90 13.52 -1.51 4.66 4.62 -0.28

Historical Data
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.04 4.61 5.70 6.20 9.44 5.22 2.90 1.27 -5.94 3.20 0.91 0.71 10.39 0.20 4.66 4.62 -0.28
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1636 1618 1631 1608 1628 1597 1550 1617 1744 1973 2175 2210 2197 2193 6493 6391 8103
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -2.21 -4.42 3.31 -5.56 5.11 -7.48 -11.26 18.49 35.39 63.80 47.74 6.59 -2.36 -0.71 2.95 -1.56 26.78
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.35 13.95 1.21 -2.28 -0.50 -1.30 -4.98 0.56 7.13 23.58 40.37 36.70 25.98 11.16 2.95 -1.56 26.78
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 4096 4299 4376 4438 4459 4465 4488 4553 4484 4628 4729 4832 4846 4903 17210 17965 18673

|
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………… -7.06 21.42 7.38 5.79 1.89 0.55 2.06 5.90 -5.93 13.52 9.02 8.94 1.20 4.75 5.78 4.39 3.94

APPENDIX B
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.87 7.27 6.53 6.41 8.88 3.86 2.55 2.58 0.55 3.65 5.37 6.12 8.08 5.93 5.78 4.39 3.94

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
|
67
 Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted January 2019
Historical Data
68

APPENDIX B
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TN GDP (Mil2012$) SAAR………………………………………… 259829 256408 257925 248285 251608 258765 266650 271261 275300 284606 292693 298917
|

Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.64 -1.32 0.59 -3.74 1.34 2.84 3.05 1.73 1.49 3.38 2.84 2.13
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

US GDP (Bil2012$) SAAR………………………………………… 15338 15626 15605 15209 15599 15841 16197 16495 16900 17387 17659 18051
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.85 1.88 -0.14 -2.54 2.56 1.55 2.25 1.84 2.45 2.88 1.57 2.22

|
TN GDP (Mil$) SAAR……………………………………………... 242107 245313 250499 247583 253318 265765 279487 289051 298640 317566 331411 345450

Historical Data
Percentage change……………………………………………… 5.26 1.32 2.11 -1.16 2.32 4.91 5.16 3.42 3.32 6.34 4.36 4.24
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR……………………………………………... 13815 14452 14713 14449 14992 15543 16197 16785 17522 18219 18707 19485
Percentage change……………………………………………… 5.97 4.61 1.81 -1.79 3.76 3.67 4.21 3.63 4.39 3.98 2.68 4.16
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR…….................... 225585 230827 232308 230962 237977 246368 254397 253295 260511 273590 280243 288183
Percentage change……………………………………………… 3.70 2.32 0.64 -0.58 3.04 3.53 3.26 -0.43 2.85 5.02 2.43 2.83
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR………….............. 12763 13132 13211 12816 13114 13580 14009 13992 14573 15243 15470 15867
Percentage change……………………………………………… 4.55 2.89 0.60 -2.99 2.33 3.55 3.16 -0.12 4.15 4.59 1.49 2.57
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……………………....... 201171 211071 218783 217319 227763 241769 254406 256706 267989 282150 292120 305691
Percentage change……………………………………………… 6.52 4.92 3.65 -0.67 4.81 6.15 5.23 0.90 4.40 5.28 3.53 4.65
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……………………....... 11382 12008 12442 12059 12552 13327 14010 14181 14992 15720 16125 16831
Percentage change……………………………………………… 7.39 5.50 3.62 -3.08 4.08 6.18 5.13 1.22 5.72 4.85 2.58 4.38
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………… 2783.0 2797.6 2775.3 2619.5 2615.2 2661.8 2715.1 2760.1 2821.8 2893.1 2965.4 3011.2
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.45 0.53 -0.80 -5.62 -0.16 1.78 2.00 1.65 2.24 2.53 2.50 1.54
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)………………………………………… 136.5 138.0 137.2 131.3 130.4 131.9 134.2 136.4 138.9 141.8 144.3 146.6
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.80 1.13 -0.55 -4.33 -0.72 1.22 1.69 1.64 1.88 2.07 1.78 1.58
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………………… 399.4 379.9 360.9 309.2 299.0 304.4 313.4 318.5 324.9 333.0 343.9 348.8
Percentage change……………………………………………… -2.30 -4.87 -4.99 -14.33 -3.32 1.84 2.94 1.61 2.04 2.48 3.28 1.43
US MFG JOBS (MIL)……………………………………………… 14.2 13.9 13.4 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4
Percentage change……………………………………………… -0.49 -1.97 -3.42 -11.61 -2.69 1.72 1.70 0.77 1.37 1.24 0.14 0.74
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………………………..... 5.2 4.7 6.6 10.5 9.6 9.0 7.8 7.7 6.6 5.6 4.7 3.7
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………………………….. 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2012=100.0)……………........ 90.1 92.5 94.3 95.0 96.1 98.1 100.0 101.8 103.7 104.8 105.9 107.9
Percentage change……………………………………………… 3.05 2.69 1.91 0.78 1.17 2.08 1.92 1.77 1.88 1.03 1.09 1.92
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)……………............. 89.2 91.4 94.2 94.1 95.7 98.1 100.0 101.3 102.9 103.1 104.2 106.1
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.72 2.54 3.00 -0.09 1.71 2.53 1.91 1.35 1.50 0.25 1.08 1.76
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)……… 2.016 2.073 2.153 2.146 2.181 2.249 2.296 2.330 2.367 2.370 2.400 2.451
Percentage change……………………………………………… 3.22 2.87 3.81 -0.32 1.64 3.14 2.07 1.47 1.61 0.12 1.27 2.14
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)……………………………… 8.0 8.1 5.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.1
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)………………………… 4.964 5.019 1.928 0.160 0.175 0.102 0.140 0.108 0.089 0.133 0.395 1.002
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)……………………… 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.6 4.0
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$)………………………………… 103954 104992 99002 91636 92358 95409 98021 99881 103499 110049 114636 118117
Percentage change……………………………………………… 2.23 1.00 -5.70 -7.44 0.79 3.30 2.74 1.90 3.62 6.33 4.17 3.04
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)……………………………………… 92704 95995 93235 86220 88393 93633 98018 101227 106471 113498 119492 125303
Percentage change……………………………………………… 5.01 3.55 -2.88 -7.52 2.52 5.93 4.68 3.27 5.18 6.60 5.28 4.86
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2012$)……………...... 42760 43408 43116 43380 44004 43808 44531 44015 44411 45766 45852 46344
Percentage change……………………………………………… 1.98 1.51 -0.67 0.61 1.44 -0.44 1.65 -1.16 0.90 3.05 0.19 1.07
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)……………….......... 38132 39691 40605 40819 42114 42988 44531 44607 45684 47198 47794 49158
Percentage change……………………………………………… 4.76 4.09 2.30 0.53 3.17 2.07 3.59 0.17 2.42 3.31 1.26 2.85
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators

Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators January 2019

Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TN GDP (2012$) SAAR………………………… 43369 42112 41764 39742 39900 40708 41679 42028 42388 43487 44381 44942
Percentage change………………………… 1.27 -2.90 -0.83 -4.84 0.40 2.02 2.39 0.84 0.86 2.59 2.06 1.26

US GDP (2012$) SAAR………………….……… 51250 51703 51172 49447 50304 50709 51475 52055 52936 54059 54510 55324
Percentage change.................................. 1.89 0.88 -1.03 -3.37 1.73 0.80 1.51 1.13 1.69 2.12 0.83 1.49

TN GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 40411 40289 40562 39630 40171 41809 43686 44784 45981 48523 50251 51938
Percentage change………………………… 3.85 -0.30 0.68 -2.30 1.37 4.08 4.49 2.51 2.67 5.53 3.56 3.36

US GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 46159 47818 48247 46976 48347 49754 51475 52969 54884 56648 57745 59721
Percentage change.................................. 4.97 3.59 0.90 -2.63 2.92 2.91 3.46 2.90 3.62 3.22 1.94 3.42

TN PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR……. 37273 37575 37347 36754 37437 38509 39415 38999 39805 41484 42134 42945
Percentage change.................................. 2.14 0.81 -0.61 -1.59 1.86 2.86 2.35 -1.05 2.07 4.22 1.57 1.92

US PERSONAL INCOME (2012$) SAAR……… 42646 43451 43323 41668 42292 43473 44523 44157 45648 47393 47752 48630
Percentage change.................................. 3.57 1.89 -0.29 -3.82 1.50 2.79 2.41 -0.82 3.38 3.82 0.76 1.84

TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………… 33238 34358 35172 34582 35831 37790 39416 39525 40948 42782 43920 45554
Percentage change.................................. 4.92 3.37 2.37 -1.68 3.61 5.47 4.30 0.27 3.60 4.48 2.66 3.72

US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………….. 38030 39731 40801 39206 40477 42661 44525 44752 46959 48876 49775 51585
Percentage change.................................. 6.38 4.47 2.69 -3.91 3.24 5.40 4.37 0.51 4.93 4.08 1.84 3.64

TN TAXABLE SALES (2012$)………………… 17176 17092 15917 14583 14529 14913 15187 15379 15814 16687 17235 17602
Percentage change.................................. 0.69 -0.49 -6.87 -8.38 -0.37 2.64 1.84 1.26 2.83 5.52 3.29 2.13

TN TAXABLE SALES ($)………………………… 15317 15627 14990 13721 13906 14636 15187 15586 16268 17210 17965 18673
Percentage change.................................. 3.43 2.02 -4.08 -8.47 1.35 5.25 3.76 2.63 4.38 5.78 4.39 3.94
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Historical Data
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APPENDIX B
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69
70

APPENDIX B
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019

Historical Data
|

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...……… 225585 230827 232308 230962 237977 246368 254397 253295 260511 273590 280243 288183

|
Percentage change…………………… 3.70 2.32 0.64 -0.58 3.04 3.53 3.26 -0.43 2.85 5.02 2.43 2.83

Historical Data
WAGES AND SALARIES……………… 119989 122468 120711 114735 116143 117548 121829 122384 126199 133240 136829 140372
Percentage change…………………… 3.42 2.07 -1.43 -4.95 1.23 1.21 3.64 0.46 3.12 5.58 2.69 2.59

OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 27049 27730 27921 26870 26332 26847 28776 29120 28643 29255 30929 31835
Percentage change…………………… -2.94 2.52 0.69 -3.76 -2.00 1.96 7.19 1.20 -1.64 2.14 5.72 2.93

PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 28071 25414 23456 27505 29476 32506 33252 34629 36536 38020 38527 40927
Percentage change…………………… 7.29 -9.46 -7.70 17.26 7.16 10.28 2.30 4.14 5.51 4.06 1.33 6.23

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………… 32009 34408 35376 32720 32928 34868 36923 35259 37516 39908 41016 42431
Percentage change…………………… 7.71 7.50 2.81 -7.51 0.63 5.89 5.89 -4.51 6.40 6.38 2.78 3.45

TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………… 38797 41598 45409 48907 52671 52369 51888 52717 52813 55447 56183 56796
Percentage change…………………… 2.80 7.22 9.16 7.70 7.70 -0.57 -0.92 1.60 0.18 4.99 1.33 1.09

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 18780 19170 19098 18746 18791 16996 17199 19590 20029 20998 21548 22374
Percentage change…………………… 2.61 2.07 -0.37 -1.84 0.24 -9.55 1.20 13.90 2.24 4.84 2.62 3.83

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1550 -1621 -1469 -1029 -780 -774 -1073 -1225 -1166 -1282 -1693 -1804
Percentage change…………………… -7.49 4.57 -9.36 -29.93 -24.18 -0.83 38.61 14.19 -4.77 9.94 32.04 6.53

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 37273 37575 37347 36754 37437 38509 39415 38999 39805 41484 42134 42945
Percentage change…………………… 2.14 0.81 -0.61 -1.59 1.86 2.86 2.35 -1.05 2.07 4.22 1.57 1.92

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)

Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...……… 201171 211071 218783 217319 227763 241769 254406 256706 267989 282150 292120 305691
Percentage change…………………… 6.52 4.92 3.65 -0.67 4.81 6.15 5.23 0.90 4.40 5.28 3.53 4.65

WAGES AND SALARIES……………… 107004 111984 113679 107955 111157 115351 121833 124032 129820 137410 142630 148899
Percentage change…………………… 6.23 4.65 1.51 -5.04 2.97 3.77 5.62 1.80 4.67 5.85 3.80 4.40

OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 24120 25358 26295 25281 25200 26347 28778 29512 29464 30171 32241 33769
Percentage change…………………… -0.29 5.13 3.70 -3.86 -0.32 4.55 9.23 2.55 -0.16 2.40 6.86 4.74

PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 25031 23233 22089 25887 28210 31903 33253 35095 37585 39209 40159 43415
Percentage change…………………… 10.18 -7.19 -4.92 17.20 8.97 13.09 4.23 5.54 7.10 4.32 2.42 8.11

RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………… 28546 31467 33317 30783 31515 34219 36926 35734 38594 41158 42755 45009
Percentage change…………………… 10.64 10.23 5.88 -7.61 2.38 8.58 7.91 -3.23 8.00 6.64 3.88 5.27

TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………… 34598 38040 42772 46020 50411 51386 51889 53428 54329 57180 58562 60246
Percentage change…………………… 5.60 9.95 12.44 7.59 9.54 1.94 0.98 2.97 1.69 5.25 2.42 2.88

LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 16748 17529 17986 17639 17983 16678 17199 19853 20603 21656 22462 23734
Percentage change…………………… 5.41 4.66 2.61 -1.93 1.95 -7.26 3.13 15.43 3.78 5.11 3.72 5.66

RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1382 -1482 -1383 -968 -747 -760 -1073 -1241 -1200 -1323 -1765 -1914
Percentage change…………………… -4.95 7.23 -6.67 -30.01 -22.86 1.70 41.25 15.71 -3.34 10.23 33.47 8.40

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 33238 34358 35172 34582 35831 37790 39416 39525 40948 42782 43920 45554
Percentage change…………………… 4.92 3.37 2.37 -1.68 3.61 5.47 4.30 0.27 3.60 4.48 2.66 3.72

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
71
 Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data
72

APPENDIX B
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
|

TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 2783.0 2797.6 2775.3 2619.5 2615.2 2661.8 2715.1 2760.1 2821.8 2893.1 2965.4 3011.2
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..……………… 1.45 0.53 -0.80 -5.62 -0.16 1.78 2.00 1.65 2.24 2.53 2.50 1.54
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING

|
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 134.4 137.7 132.4 110.0 105.1 108.7 108.9 107.9 110.9 117.2 119.2 124.1

Historical Data
Percentage change………..……………… 7.31 2.45 -3.84 -16.91 -4.45 3.36 0.17 -0.88 2.76 5.68 1.69 4.18
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 399.4 379.9 360.9 309.2 299.0 304.4 313.4 318.5 324.9 333.0 343.9 348.8
Percentage change………..……………… -2.30 -4.87 -4.99 -14.33 -3.32 1.84 2.94 1.61 2.04 2.48 3.28 1.43
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 251.8 237.1 220.8 181.8 176.3 183.7 193.9 198.9 205.1 210.8 219.2 222.0
Percentage change………..……………… -1.11 -5.83 -6.85 -17.66 -3.04 4.21 5.55 2.54 3.15 2.78 3.97 1.28
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 147.6 142.8 140.1 127.4 122.6 120.7 119.5 119.6 119.8 122.2 124.7 126.8
Percentage change………..……………… -4.25 -3.24 -1.92 -9.08 -3.72 -1.57 -1.04 0.11 0.19 1.96 2.08 1.70
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 607.4 610.7 600.3 559.3 555.0 563.5 575.0 581.0 589.8 601.9 617.3 621.7
Percentage change………..……………… 1.56 0.54 -1.70 -6.82 -0.76 1.53 2.05 1.04 1.51 2.06 2.56 0.71
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 132.1 133.0 131.7 120.7 116.8 117.9 120.4 120.7 120.3 120.0 119.5 121.2
Percentage change………..……………… 1.36 0.70 -1.00 -8.31 -3.26 0.95 2.13 0.26 -0.37 -0.24 -0.40 1.39
RETAIL TRADE………………………………… 328.3 330.6 325.5 306.9 306.7 309.1 312.8 314.9 320.8 325.4 333.9 335.2
Percentage change………..……………… 1.22 0.70 -1.55 -5.71 -0.06 0.79 1.20 0.65 1.89 1.43 2.60 0.40
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………… 147.0 147.1 143.1 131.7 131.5 136.4 141.8 145.4 148.7 156.5 164.0 165.3
Percentage change………..……………… 2.52 0.04 -2.70 -8.00 -0.12 3.75 3.91 2.58 2.25 5.27 4.73 0.83
INFORMATION…………………………………… 49.6 50.3 50.5 46.9 45.0 43.7 43.3 44.1 43.8 44.4 45.2 45.5
Percentage change………..……………… 0.37 1.41 0.51 -7.27 -3.98 -2.78 -1.12 2.06 -0.72 1.29 1.84 0.72
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 143.6 144.8 145.1 140.5 137.1 136.5 137.1 138.9 144.2 148.0 153.0 158.1
Percentage change………..……………… 0.20 0.89 0.18 -3.15 -2.45 -0.43 0.44 1.33 3.77 2.65 3.42 3.33
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 319.7 323.2 321.9 294.2 304.6 323.5 339.0 354.4 376.0 393.5 404.3 407.0
Percentage change………..……………… 2.11 1.11 -0.42 -8.59 3.54 6.19 4.81 4.54 6.10 4.65 2.74 0.67
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 343.0 352.2 361.0 367.8 375.7 386.2 395.6 401.0 405.7 414.3 424.0 431.9
Percentage change………..……………… 3.17 2.68 2.51 1.88 2.14 2.81 2.44 1.37 1.16 2.13 2.34 1.85
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 270.1 276.2 273.7 263.5 262.0 267.7 276.8 285.9 296.4 308.0 319.5 329.5
Percentage change………..……………… 3.07 2.23 -0.88 -3.73 -0.58 2.16 3.40 3.29 3.66 3.93 3.74 3.11
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)

OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 101.7 104.0 104.5 102.0 101.2 102.1 104.3 105.6 106.1 108.0 111.0 114.0
Percentage change………..……………… 0.99 2.33 0.42 -2.36 -0.82 0.86 2.17 1.25 0.48 1.79 2.82 2.69
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 414.2 418.6 425.0 426.0 430.5 425.6 421.9 422.8 424.1 424.8 427.9 430.5
Percentage change………..……………… 0.98 1.06 1.52 0.24 1.07 -1.14 -0.88 0.22 0.31 0.18 0.72 0.61
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 48.8 48.8 49.4 50.1 52.4 50.5 50.1 49.5 48.4 49.1 49.2 49.1
Percentage change………..……………… -0.78 -0.15 1.25 1.47 4.49 -3.45 -0.79 -1.35 -2.17 1.45 0.31 -0.27
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 365.4 369.9 375.6 375.9 378.2 375.1 371.7 373.3 375.7 375.7 378.6 381.4
Percentage change………..……………… 1.22 1.22 1.55 0.08 0.61 -0.82 -0.90 0.43 0.64 0.01 0.77 0.72

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)

Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) January 2019

Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TOTAL DURABLE GOODS……………………… 251.8 237.1 220.8 181.8 176.3 183.7 193.9 198.9 205.1 210.8 219.2 222.0
Percentage change………..……………… -1.11 -5.83 -6.85 -17.66 -3.04 4.21 5.55 2.54 3.15 2.78 3.97 1.28

WOOD PRODUCTS…………………………… 17.9 16.1 14.3 11.3 10.9 10.8 11.0 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5
Percentage change………..……………… 0.95 -10.14 -11.24 -20.84 -3.55 -1.07 2.25 -1.59 3.36 3.11 4.88 2.88

NONMETALLIC MINERALS………………… 16.1 15.5 14.2 11.6 11.3 11.8 12.5 12.1 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.6
Percentage change………..……………… 1.05 -3.52 -8.38 -18.89 -2.05 4.21 5.81 -2.66 -1.11 5.40 5.20 2.18

PRIMARY METALS………….………………… 11.8 11.7 11.1 9.0 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.6
Percentage change………..……………… -1.55 -0.85 -4.97 -18.84 -2.68 4.65 4.89 3.19 1.08 2.73 1.69 0.48

FABRICATED METALS…………………....... 43.4 41.5 39.7 33.6 33.0 33.6 34.5 33.9 34.4 35.2 35.6 35.6
Percentage change………..……………… 1.92 -4.46 -4.30 -15.37 -1.95 1.91 2.66 -1.67 1.55 2.08 1.23 -0.03

MACHINERY…………………………………… 33.2 32.0 31.2 26.0 24.8 25.1 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.5
Percentage change………..……………… -1.97 -3.69 -2.50 -16.63 -4.79 1.46 1.65 -0.71 0.30 -0.63 0.77 0.22

COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………… 9.3 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8
Percentage change………..……………… -11.27 -12.55 -8.27 -16.07 -10.58 0.43 0.58 -7.25 -3.35 -1.82 -3.19 0.70

ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES

& COMPONENTS…………..………………… 23.2 22.1 20.6 17.8 16.9 17.7 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.3
Percentage change………..……………… -1.36 -4.66 -6.94 -13.51 -4.99 4.51 1.65 3.47 4.04 1.98 0.55 -2.70

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………… 63.7 58.6 52.5 40.4 40.5 45.8 53.6 59.5 63.8 66.8 72.5 74.6
Percentage change………..……………… -0.27 -7.99 -10.46 -22.96 0.03 13.21 17.04 11.03 7.13 4.69 8.64 2.84

FURNITURE…………………………………… 17.7 16.0 14.2 10.8 9.7 8.9 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.5
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..……………… -7.71 -9.72 -11.08 -24.26 -10.21 -7.73 -2.92 1.06 2.72 0.57 3.94 1.16

MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES……………… 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.9 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.6 16.0
Percentage change………..……………… 0.16 0.18 0.98 -2.99 -0.68 1.83 -2.30 -2.25 1.77 3.67 1.79 2.61

Historical Data
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

|
APPENDIX B
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73
74

APPENDIX B
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) January 2019
|

Historical Data
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 147.6 142.8 140.1 127.4 122.6 120.7 119.5 119.6 119.8 122.2 124.7 126.8

|
Percentage change………..………………… -4.25 -3.24 -1.92 -9.08 -3.72 -1.57 -1.04 0.11 0.19 1.96 2.08 1.70

Historical Data
FOOD……………………………………………… 34.0 32.7 32.5 32.3 32.6 33.1 33.0 32.4 32.7 33.3 34.3 35.3
Percentage change………..………………… -0.97 -3.84 -0.62 -0.46 0.80 1.62 -0.24 -1.90 1.05 1.65 3.00 2.87

BEVERAGE & TOBACCO……………………… 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.6 6.9
Percentage change………..………………… -4.31 -2.56 0.14 0.16 -1.64 0.16 3.51 2.58 3.46 7.72 10.85 5.97

PAPER…………………………………………… 18.3 17.4 17.2 16.2 15.7 15.3 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6
Percentage change………..………………… -3.23 -5.06 -1.02 -6.13 -2.94 -2.53 -3.76 -0.17 -0.81 0.05 -0.47 0.40

PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………… 17.8 17.0 15.7 13.3 11.4 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.0
Percentage change………..………………… -5.39 -4.51 -7.53 -15.27 -13.96 -12.93 -3.44 0.09 -1.21 -2.99 -0.28 -1.64

CHEMICALS……………………………………… 26.3 26.9 27.5 25.8 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.3 24.9
Percentage change………..………………… -3.14 2.34 2.20 -6.17 -3.26 -1.63 -0.68 1.67 1.92 1.19 -1.17 -1.48

PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………… 27.6 26.6 25.4 20.4 19.9 20.5 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.4
Percentage change………..………………… -5.76 -3.64 -4.40 -19.81 -2.49 2.89 -2.45 1.03 2.94 5.66 5.58 5.47

MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS… 18.4 17.2 16.7 14.3 13.1 12.3 12.6 12.6 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7
Percentage change………..………………… -9.01 -6.65 -2.95 -14.29 -8.66 -5.75 1.89 0.21 -8.92 1.59 0.57 -0.50

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
 Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)

Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) January 2019
Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 42760 43408 43116 43380 44004 43808 44531 44015 44411 45766 45852 46344
Percentage change………..……………… 1.98 1.51 -0.67 0.61 1.44 -0.44 1.65 -1.16 0.90 3.05 0.19 1.07
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 46797 48207 48036 47203 48071 47990 48661 48338 49811 52534 53355 54575
Percentage change………..……………… 4.15 3.01 -0.36 -1.73 1.84 -0.17 1.40 -0.66 3.05 5.47 1.56 2.29
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 50322 50983 51176 51994 54377 53841 54827 54014 54799 55545 55735 56111
Percentage change………..……………… 1.60 1.31 0.38 1.60 4.58 -0.98 1.83 -1.48 1.45 1.36 0.34 0.68
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 49486 49989 50345 51271 53455 52701 54392 52525 53688 54504 54982 55368
Percentage change………..……………… 1.73 1.02 0.71 1.84 4.26 -1.41 3.21 -3.43 2.22 1.52 0.88 0.70
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 51757 52623 52492 53014 55711 55572 55539 56490 56699 57341 57059 57411
Percentage change………..……………… 1.51 1.67 -0.25 1.00 5.09 -0.25 -0.06 1.71 0.37 1.13 -0.49 0.62
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 40718 41346 40400 40150 40580 40790 41092 40610 41152 42333 42541 42848
Percentage change………..……………… 1.38 1.54 -2.29 -0.62 1.07 0.52 0.74 -1.17 1.34 2.87 0.49 0.72
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 59700 60697 59911 59438 60403 60823 62425 61814 64229 66103 67754 67130
Percentage change………..……………… 3.71 1.67 -1.30 -0.79 1.62 0.70 2.63 -0.98 3.91 2.92 2.50 -0.92
RETAIL TRADE………………………………… 28326 28910 27951 28045 28475 28529 28333 27708 28007 28853 28948 29224
Percentage change………..……………… 0.25 2.06 -3.32 0.34 1.53 0.19 -0.68 -2.21 1.08 3.02 0.33 0.95
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………… 51336 51796 50758 50680 51206 51269 51130 50944 50855 52131 51846 52684
Percentage change………..……………… 0.08 0.90 -2.00 -0.15 1.04 0.12 -0.27 -0.36 -0.17 2.51 -0.55 1.62
INFORMATION…………………………………… 56053 55581 54321 54774 55653 57492 58410 57292 59383 59746 61417 64520
Percentage change………..……………… 8.70 -0.84 -2.27 0.83 1.60 3.31 1.60 -1.91 3.65 0.61 2.80 5.05
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 61089 62599 60934 60971 64074 63925 67188 65000 65718 66785 67162 66917
Percentage change………..……………… 5.24 2.47 -2.66 0.06 5.09 -0.23 5.10 -3.26 1.10 1.62 0.56 -0.36
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 44480 46333 47316 49073 49690 48784 51487 51158 49987 52741 52582 53192
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..……………… 3.75 4.17 2.12 3.71 1.26 -1.82 5.54 -0.64 -2.29 5.51 -0.30 1.16
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 44647 45113 45032 46137 46007 45271 45234 44939 45153 47061 46691 47075
Percentage change………..……………… 0.32 1.04 -0.18 2.45 -0.28 -1.60 -0.08 -0.65 0.48 4.23 -0.79 0.82
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 21098 21457 20935 20889 21299 21169 21434 21026 21569 22667 22798 23471

Historical Data
Percentage change………..……………… 2.33 1.71 -2.43 -0.22 1.96 -0.61 1.25 -1.90 2.58 5.09 0.58 2.95
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 39554 38852 38793 39272 39170 39281 39678 39374 40804 41729 41471 41573
Percentage change………..……………… 2.49 -1.78 -0.15 1.23 -0.26 0.28 1.01 -0.77 3.63 2.27 -0.62 0.24
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 41241 41780 41717 41944 41811 41923 41818 41624 41988 42369 42491 43181
Percentage change………..……………… 0.94 1.31 -0.15 0.54 -0.32 0.27 -0.25 -0.47 0.87 0.91 0.29 1.63

|
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 68653 69959 68175 69160 70852 73073 72052 70861 76430 75436 74702 74735

APPENDIX B
Percentage change………..……………… 0.78 1.90 -2.55 1.44 2.45 3.13 -1.40 -1.65 7.86 -1.30 -0.97 0.04
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 37577 38064 38239 38317 37809 37726 37740 37750 37552 38048 38302 39118
|

Percentage change………..……………… 1.18 1.30 0.46 0.20 -1.33 -0.22 0.04 0.03 -0.52 1.32 0.67 2.13
75

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) January 2019
76

APPENDIX B
Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
|
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………. 38132 39691 40605 40819 42114 42988 44531 44607 45684 47198 47794 49158
Percentage change………..…………………………… 4.76 4.09 2.30 0.53 3.17 2.07 3.59 0.17 2.42 3.31 1.26 2.85

|
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION… 41732 44086 45238 44411 46004 47089 48659 48990 51240 54178 55617 57891

Historical Data
Percentage change………..…………………………… 6.99 5.64 2.61 -1.83 3.59 2.36 3.33 0.68 4.59 5.73 2.66 4.09
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 44876 46618 48196 48935 52043 52831 54826 54740 56370 57282 58096 59519
Percentage change………..…………………………… 4.36 3.88 3.38 1.53 6.35 1.51 3.78 -0.16 2.98 1.62 1.42 2.45
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………...... 44129 45708 47417 48254 51159 51713 54390 53231 55229 56210 57311 58730
Percentage change………..…………………………… 4.49 3.58 3.74 1.76 6.02 1.08 5.18 -2.13 3.75 1.78 1.96 2.48
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………….. 46157 48121 49429 49897 53323 54527 55540 57250 58322 59132 59479 60899
Percentage change………..…………………………… 4.27 4.26 2.72 0.95 6.87 2.26 1.86 3.08 1.87 1.39 0.59 2.39
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…………. 36311 37804 38047 37779 38837 40027 41093 41156 42333 43657 44344 45451
Percentage change………..…………………………… 4.14 4.11 0.64 -0.70 2.80 3.06 2.66 0.15 2.86 3.13 1.57 2.50
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………. 53239 55499 56422 55928 57810 59684 62431 62646 66073 68170 70627 71204
Percentage change………..…………………………… 6.53 4.25 1.66 -0.88 3.37 3.24 4.60 0.34 5.47 3.17 3.60 0.82
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………… 25260 26434 26323 26390 27252 27996 28332 28081 28810 29756 30175 31000
Percentage change………..…………………………… 2.98 4.65 -0.42 0.25 3.27 2.73 1.20 -0.89 2.60 3.28 1.41 2.73
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………………… 45780 47358 47799 47689 49007 50307 51130 51629 52314 53761 54042 55883
Percentage change………..…………………………… 2.82 3.45 0.93 -0.23 2.76 2.65 1.64 0.98 1.33 2.77 0.52 3.41
INFORMATION………………………………………………… 49989 50818 51156 51545 53262 56422 58415 58063 61084 61611 64024 68441
Percentage change………..…………………………… 11.69 1.66 0.67 0.76 3.33 5.93 3.53 -0.60 5.20 0.86 3.92 6.90
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………..... 54481 57238 57386 57372 61330 62728 67191 65872 67599 68874 70005 70986
Percentage change………..…………………………… 8.10 5.06 0.26 -0.02 6.90 2.28 7.12 -1.96 2.62 1.89 1.64 1.40
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES……………… 39667 42370 44558 46175 47555 47868 51491 51845 51421 54390 54808 56421
Percentage change………..…………………………… 6.59 6.81 5.17 3.63 2.99 0.66 7.57 0.69 -0.82 5.77 0.77 2.94
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………… 39814 41251 42410 43413 44031 44425 45234 45544 46448 48533 48669 49932
Percentage change………..…………………………… 3.05 3.61 2.81 2.36 1.42 0.89 1.82 0.69 1.98 4.49 0.28 2.60
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………………… 18815 19621 19716 19655 20384 20772 21433 21310 22188 23377 23765 24897
Percentage change………..…………………………… 5.12 4.29 0.48 -0.31 3.71 1.90 3.18 -0.58 4.12 5.36 1.66 4.76
OTHER SERVICES………………………………………….. 35273 35524 36533 36955 37487 38543 39678 39905 41974 43034 43226 44098
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)

Percentage change………..…………………………… 5.28 0.71 2.84 1.16 1.44 2.82 2.94 0.57 5.18 2.53 0.45 2.02
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………. 36777 38202 39287 39464 40015 41139 41818 42183 43192 43693 44291 45804
Percentage change………..…………………………… 3.69 3.88 2.84 0.45 1.40 2.81 1.65 0.87 2.39 1.16 1.37 3.42
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………… 61221 63967 64202 65078 67815 71702 72050 71817 78624 77791 77865 79274
Percentage change………..…………………………… 3.52 4.49 0.37 1.36 4.21 5.73 0.49 -0.32 9.48 -1.06 0.09 1.81
STATE & LOCAL………………………………………….. 33510 34805 36012 36051 36184 37020 37741 38257 38629 39238 39925 41494
Percentage change………..…………………………… 3.94 3.87 3.47 0.11 0.37 2.31 1.95 1.37 0.97 1.58 1.75 3.93

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
 Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate January 2019

Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3036 3064 3056 3054 3090 3125 3102 3068 3024 3063 3135 3198
Percentage change……………………… 4.51 0.93 -0.27 -0.07 1.18 1.12 -0.73 -1.10 -1.44 1.29 2.35 2.02

EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2878 2921 2853 2735 2792 2844 2859 2830 2824 2891 2987 3080
Percentage change……………………… 4.87 1.52 -2.33 -4.15 2.09 1.87 0.51 -1.00 -0.20 2.37 3.30 3.11

UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……… 158 143 203 319 298 280 243 238 199 171 148 118
Percentage change……………………… -1.75 -9.73 41.84 57.41 -6.63 -5.95 -13.32 -2.21 -16.12 -14.01 -13.58 -20.01

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 64.7 64.4 63.4 62.7 62.7 62.8 61.8 60.6 59.2 59.4 60.1 60.6
Percentage change……………………… 2.67 -0.50 -1.54 -1.03 0.01 0.18 -1.65 -1.94 -2.33 0.31 1.22 0.82

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)……… 5.2 4.7 6.6 10.5 9.6 9.0 7.8 7.7 6.6 5.6 4.7 3.7

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
77
78

APPENDIX B
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
|

Historical Data
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 103954 104992 99002 91636 92358 95409 98021 99881 103499 110049 114636 118117

|
Percentage change………..………………… 2.23 1.00 -5.70 -7.44 0.79 3.30 2.74 1.90 3.62 6.33 4.17 3.04

Historical Data
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 10528 10394 8431 7145 8014 8589 9275 9697 10264 11435 12102 12141
Percentage change………..………………… -3.10 -1.27 -18.89 -15.25 12.16 7.17 7.99 4.55 5.85 11.41 5.83 0.32
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 5246 5186 4775 3713 3819 4085 4041 4115 4335 4729 4994 5166
Percentage change………..………………… -5.14 -1.14 -7.94 -22.24 2.87 6.96 -1.07 1.81 5.36 9.08 5.59 3.46
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 19297 19077 17359 14610 15144 15878 16374 16582 17055 18053 19319 20138
Percentage change………..………………… 5.75 -1.14 -9.00 -15.84 3.65 4.85 3.12 1.27 2.85 5.85 7.01 4.24
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 9491 9711 9529 9395 9463 9687 10198 10436 10884 11667 12101 12181
Percentage change………..………………… 3.52 2.31 -1.88 -1.40 0.72 2.37 5.27 2.33 4.30 7.19 3.72 0.66
FOOD STORES………………………………… 9441 9548 9129 9376 9283 9391 9690 10113 10397 10765 11043 11421
Percentage change………..………………… -0.01 1.14 -4.39 2.70 -0.99 1.16 3.18 4.37 2.81 3.54 2.58 3.43
LIQUOR STORES………………………………… 614 650 675 698 715 742 793 825 869 942 935 857
Percentage change………..………………… 7.72 5.83 3.94 3.40 2.42 3.68 6.91 4.07 5.28 8.39 -0.66 -8.42
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 2488 2575 2457 2166 2160 2377 2488 2505 2801 3125 3454 3403
Percentage change………..………………… 5.68 3.52 -4.61 -11.81 -0.31 10.04 4.69 0.69 11.81 11.56 10.53 -1.48
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 30426 30956 29983 28488 28540 29302 30179 30720 31967 33856 35052 35860
Percentage change………..………………… 2.36 1.74 -3.15 -4.99 0.18 2.67 2.99 1.79 4.06 5.91 3.53 2.31
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 8177 8485 8266 7826 7988 8139 8423 8578 8795 9182 9505 9313
Percentage change………..………………… 1.08 3.76 -2.58 -5.31 2.07 1.88 3.49 1.84 2.54 4.39 3.52 -2.02
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 8246 8409 8399 8217 7231 7220 6560 6311 6131 6296 6132 7636
Percentage change………..………………… 7.21 1.97 -0.12 -2.17 -11.99 -0.15 -9.14 -3.80 -2.85 2.69 -2.61 24.53
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 17176 17092 15917 14583 14529 14913 15187 15379 15814 16687 17235 17602
Percentage change………..………………… 0.69 -0.49 -6.87 -8.38 -0.37 2.64 1.84 1.26 2.83 5.52 3.29 2.13

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)
 Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)

Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) January 2019

Historical Data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………… 92704 95995 93235 86220 88393 93633 98018 101227 106471 113498 119492 125303
Percentage change………..………………… 5.01 3.55 -2.88 -7.52 2.52 5.93 4.68 3.27 5.18 6.60 5.28 4.86
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 9389 9503 7938 6725 7671 8429 9275 9828 10559 11794 12616 12879
Percentage change………..………………… -0.43 1.21 -16.47 -15.28 14.07 9.89 10.03 5.96 7.44 11.69 6.97 2.08
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 4678 4741 4496 3493 3656 4009 4042 4170 4460 4877 5206 5481
Percentage change………..………………… -2.58 1.35 -5.17 -22.31 4.65 9.66 0.82 3.18 6.95 9.36 6.73 5.28
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 17208 17441 16347 13747 14494 15583 16372 16805 17545 18620 20137 21363
Percentage change………..………………… 8.60 1.35 -6.27 -15.91 5.43 7.51 5.07 2.64 4.40 6.12 8.15 6.09
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 8464 8880 8973 8840 9057 9507 10198 10576 11197 12032 12614 12921
Percentage change………..………………… 6.34 4.91 1.06 -1.48 2.45 4.98 7.27 3.71 5.87 7.46 4.83 2.44
FOOD STORES………………………………… 8419 8731 8600 8821 8884 9216 9690 10249 10695 11101 11511 12117
Percentage change………..………………… 2.72 3.70 -1.49 2.57 0.72 3.73 5.14 5.77 4.35 3.80 3.69 5.26
LIQUOR STORES………………………………… 548 594 636 657 685 728 793 836 894 971 975 909
Percentage change………..………………… 10.63 8.51 7.05 3.31 4.18 6.32 8.93 5.47 6.86 8.66 0.37 -6.78
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 2218 2355 2313 2038 2067 2333 2488 2539 2882 3223 3600 3610
Percentage change………..………………… 8.55 6.15 -1.78 -11.87 1.40 12.85 6.67 2.05 13.49 11.85 11.71 0.26
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 27134 28304 28237 26805 27315 28756 30178 31134 32885 34917 36535 38042
Percentage change………..………………… 5.15 4.31 -0.24 -5.07 1.90 5.27 4.95 3.17 5.62 6.18 4.63 4.12
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 7293 7758 7784 7364 7645 7987 8423 8693 9048 9469 9907 9879
Percentage change………..………………… 3.82 6.38 0.33 -5.39 3.81 4.47 5.45 3.21 4.08 4.66 4.62 -0.28
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 7353 7689 7910 7729 6921 7085 6560 6396 6307 6493 6391 8103
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change………..………………… 10.05 4.57 2.87 -2.29 -10.45 2.37 -7.41 -2.50 -1.39 2.95 -1.56 26.78
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………… 15317 15627 14990 13721 13906 14636 15187 15586 16268 17210 17965 18673
Percentage change………..………………… 3.43 2.02 -4.08 -8.47 1.35 5.25 3.76 2.63 4.38 5.78 4.39 3.94

Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
|
79
80

APPENDIX B
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
Historical Data
|

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.................................................................. 253,141 259,829 256,408 257,925 248,285 251,608 258,765 266,650 271,261 275,300 284,606 292,693
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.47 2.64 -1.32 0.59 -3.74 1.34 2.84 3.05 1.73 1.49 3.38 2.84

|
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING & HUNTING............................... 1,808 2,305 1,636 1,836 1,744 1,242 1,246 1,028 1,468 1,251 1,392 1,369
Percentage change………………………………………………… -5.28 27.44 -29.01 12.21 -5.01 -28.77 0.31 -17.53 42.87 -14.80 11.30 -1.67

Historical Data
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING........................................................ 3,020 3,617 2,950 2,952 2,717 2,197 2,046 1,779 2,231 2,023 2,199 2,243
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -2.73 19.77 -18.44 0.06 -7.97 -19.14 -6.85 -13.04 25.37 -9.32 8.69 2.03
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................ 11,930 11,585 11,112 10,494 9,256 8,714 9,072 9,883 9,661 9,687 10,219 10,541
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -3.07 -2.90 -4.09 -5.56 -11.80 -5.85 4.11 8.94 -2.25 0.28 5.49 3.15
MANUFACTURING............................................................................. 43,958 45,682 43,781 42,805 38,639 39,980 41,765 44,086 45,512 45,239 46,406 47,393
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -1.62 3.92 -4.16 -2.23 -9.73 3.47 4.46 5.56 3.23 -0.60 2.58 2.13
DURABLE GOODS............................................................................... 26,119 27,097 24,486 24,875 20,626 21,017 23,342 25,017 25,534 26,095 27,270 27,813
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.04 3.75 -9.64 1.59 -17.08 1.90 11.07 7.17 2.07 2.20 4.50 1.99
WOOD PRODUCTS…………………………………………................ 705 730 814 809 602 611 663 659 565 543 627 623
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 7.69 3.52 11.49 -0.69 -25.49 1.36 8.52 -0.53 -14.35 -3.74 15.38 -0.57
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS…………………………….. 1,497 1,335 1,332 1,136 890 972 1,074 1,086 1,025 1,075 1,187 1,253
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -10.63 -10.84 -0.22 -14.67 -21.73 9.26 10.54 1.13 -5.62 4.80 10.49 5.50
PRIMARY METALS………….……………………………................. 1,121 1,075 853 847 766 874 991 1,156 1,230 1,246 1,388 1,553
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -1.14 -4.04 -20.70 -0.63 -9.58 14.12 13.37 16.59 6.39 1.35 11.35 11.90
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………………………… 4,294 4,601 4,483 3,899 3,527 3,751 3,625 3,711 3,434 3,538 3,451 3,639
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -4.08 7.16 -2.58 -13.03 -9.53 6.35 -3.35 2.38 -7.48 3.03 -2.45 5.44
MACHINERY………………………………………………………… 3,797 3,534 3,065 3,614 2,760 2,598 2,802 2,546 3,121 2,813 2,709 2,687
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 15.10 -6.93 -13.28 17.93 -23.62 -5.88 7.86 -9.15 22.61 -9.87 -3.70 -0.82
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…………… 2561.2 2302.4 2752.2 3849 4056.3 1716.1 1488.6 1141.1 858.4 746.3 841.8 845
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -10.68 -10.10 19.54 39.85 5.39 -57.69 -13.26 -23.34 -24.77 -13.06 12.80 0.34
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES & COMPONENTS…… 2,828 3,090 2,487 3,089 2,909 2,535 2,696 3,495 3,217 3,187 3,640 3,465
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 9.48 9.26 -19.51 24.19 -5.82 -12.83 6.31 29.65 -7.96 -0.90 14.21 -4.81
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS, & PARTS……………… 5,859 7,082 5,318 4,399 1,972 4,795 6,825 8,138 9,132 9,994 9,899 10,572
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 16.71 20.89 -24.91 -17.29 -55.18 143.23 42.34 19.24 12.21 9.44 -0.95 6.79
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT…………………………… 946 806 752 632 423 493 538 459 367 443 396 405
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.88 -14.85 -6.69 -15.98 -32.98 16.54 9.16 -14.71 -20.01 20.58 -10.70 2.28
FURNITURE…………………………………………………………….. 905 849 826 651 471 424 404 426 473 510 547 519
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -8.62 -6.13 -2.77 -21.22 -27.54 -10.16 -4.60 5.54 10.86 7.98 7.21 -5.21
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS……………………………… 1,607 1,692 1,805 1,951 2,249 2,248 2,235 2,198 2,113 1,999 2,584 2,254
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)

Percentage change…………………………………………………… 6.33 5.34 6.68 8.09 15.26 -0.07 -0.57 -1.64 -3.90 -5.40 29.27 -12.75
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………………………… 17,839 18,585 19,295 17,930 18,014 18,963 18,422 19,069 19,978 19,144 19,136 19,579
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -8.89 4.18 3.82 -7.07 0.46 5.27 -2.85 3.51 4.76 -4.18 -0.04 2.32
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO............................................ 5,938 6,585 7,370 6,780 6,915 7,095 6,763 6,801 6,696 6,611 6,789 7,184
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -1.26 10.89 11.92 -8.01 1.99 2.60 -4.67 0.55 -1.54 -1.26 2.68 5.81
TEXTILE MILLS & TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS 618 668 582 614 421 369 295 332 465 442 447 474
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -14.80 8.19 -12.84 5.49 -31.48 -12.38 -20.03 12.54 40.09 -5.05 1.15 6.11
APPAREL & LEATHER PRODUCTS………………………………… 298 240 230 243 213 242 207 208 329 175 170 166
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -14.63 -19.36 -4.24 5.73 -12.53 13.67 -14.46 0.68 57.82 -46.79 -2.80 -2.23
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) January 2019
Historical Data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PAPER…………………………………………………………………… 2,462 2,746 2,348 2,385 2,590 2,709 2,452 2,615 2,716 2,656 2,329 2,487
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.50 11.53 -14.51 1.59 8.58 4.61 -9.51 6.64 3.89 -2.22 -12.30 6.78
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………………………………… 1,256 1,304 1,276 1,237 1,092 1,063 1,040 994 1,117 1,101 1,045 1,069
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.87 3.82 -2.18 -3.04 -11.70 -2.66 -2.17 -4.42 12.31 -1.42 -5.05 2.26
CHEMICALS……………………………………………………………… 4,218 4,604 4,781 4,335 4,554 5,196 5,641 5,936 6,188 5,172 5,294 4,947
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -23.39 9.13 3.86 -9.33 5.05 14.10 8.55 5.23 4.25 -16.42 2.35 -6.55
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………………………………… 2,280 1,932 2,121 1,919 1,757 1,894 1,749 1,787 1,994 2,035 2,114 2,354
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -9.12 -15.24 9.75 -9.53 -8.43 7.79 -7.68 2.17 11.60 2.07 3.90 11.35
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS………………………… 769 505 586 417 471 395 276 397 473 952 948 899
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -8.63 -34.26 16.07 -28.94 13.13 -16.23 -30.21 44.16 19.08 101.25 -0.45 -5.20
TRADE………….....................……..................…….................................. 52,613 53,975 53,375 52,278 47,338 49,261 50,385 51,779 52,229 53,332 54,851 57,401
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.33 2.59 -1.11 -2.06 -9.45 4.06 2.28 2.77 0.87 2.11 2.85 4.65
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………..................... 18,344 18,974 19,406 19,436 16,671 17,141 17,445 18,354 18,793 19,676 20,095 20,620
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.87 3.43 2.28 0.15 -14.23 2.82 1.77 5.21 2.39 4.70 2.13 2.61
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….................... 20,070 20,229 19,866 18,830 17,961 18,575 18,905 19,344 19,320 19,863 20,763 22,140
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.76 0.79 -1.80 -5.21 -4.61 3.42 1.77 2.32 -0.13 2.81 4.53 6.63
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………………………… 14,199 14,772 14,104 14,013 12,707 13,545 14,035 14,082 14,117 13,794 13,994 14,641
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.32 4.03 -4.52 -0.65 -9.32 6.59 3.62 0.33 0.25 -2.29 1.45 4.62
INFORMATION……………………………………………………................. 6,784 7,551 8,597 8,100 8,495 8,415 8,332 7,554 7,825 7,867 9,160 9,740
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 8.58 11.30 13.85 -5.78 4.88 -0.94 -0.98 -9.34 3.59 0.53 16.43 6.34
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................ 34,784 35,332 37,007 37,519 39,030 40,568 41,890 42,181 42,576 43,843 45,256 47,049
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -1.71 1.58 4.74 1.39 4.03 3.94 3.26 0.69 0.94 2.98 3.22 3.96
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………………......... 24,128 24,442 24,847 26,488 25,047 26,144 27,036 29,183 30,570 31,455 32,871 33,477
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 0.24 1.30 1.66 6.60 -5.44 4.38 3.41 7.94 4.75 2.89 4.50 1.84
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………....................... 22,753 23,299 23,500 25,111 26,416 26,651 27,448 28,104 28,375 28,753 29,775 30,573
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.50 2.40 0.86 6.86 5.20 0.89 2.99 2.39 0.96 1.33 3.55 2.68
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………..................... 11,753 12,474 12,712 11,562 10,760 11,030 11,396 11,724 11,919 12,843 13,446 13,610
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.26 6.13 1.91 -9.04 -6.94 2.50 3.32 2.88 1.66 7.75 4.69 1.22
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………......................... 7,401 7,422 7,097 6,767 6,454 6,435 6,526 6,758 6,612 6,660 6,665 6,774
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -0.84 0.29 -4.38 -4.65 -4.63 -0.28 1.41 3.56 -2.17 0.74 0.08 1.62
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………........................ 32,207 32,145 29,795 32,012 32,389 30,972 31,624 32,592 32,284 32,348 32,368 32,524

Historical Data
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.59 -0.19 -7.31 7.44 1.18 -4.38 2.11 3.06 -0.94 0.20 0.06 0.48
FEDERAL.............................................…………………………………… 8,794 8,778 8,600 8,036 8,115 8,241 8,025 7,871 8,048 8,677 8,901 8,765
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -2.34 -0.19 -2.02 -6.56 0.99 1.55 -2.62 -1.92 2.24 7.83 2.58 -1.53
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................ 23,413 23,368 21,195 23,976 24,274 22,731 23,599 24,721 24,237 23,671 23,467 23,759
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 8.91 -0.19 -9.30 13.12 1.24 -6.36 3.82 4.75 -1.96 -2.34 -0.86 1.25

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Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model

APPENDIX B
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 Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars) January 2019
82

APPENDIX B
Historical Data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.................................................................. 230,004 242,107 245,313 250,499 247,583 253,318 265,765 279,487 289,051 298,640 317,566 331,411
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.29 5.26 1.32 2.11 -1.16 2.32 4.91 5.16 3.42 3.32 6.34 4.36
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING & HUNTING............................... 1,859 2,329 1,903 2,205 1,744 1,415 1,838 1,556 2,268 1,789 1,665 1,420

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Percentage change………………………………………………… -13.72 25.33 -18.31 15.90 -20.92 -18.85 29.85 -15.32 45.77 -21.13 -6.96 -14.68

Historical Data
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING........................................................ 2,556 3,352 2,909 2,911 2,717 2,157 2,038 1,824 2,367 2,290 2,593 2,743
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 7.96 31.13 -13.22 0.07 -6.67 -20.61 -5.48 -10.50 29.76 -3.26 13.20 5.79
CONSTRUCTION..................................................................................... 11,173 10,804 10,309 9,845 9,256 8,594 8,989 10,196 10,153 10,465 11,568 12,077
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -2.22 -3.30 -4.58 -4.50 -5.99 -7.15 4.60 13.42 -0.43 3.07 10.54 4.40
MANUFACTURING................................................................................... 42,631 44,884 42,984 41,407 38,639 40,052 44,012 47,153 48,793 49,349 52,222 53,077
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 2.02 5.29 -4.23 -3.67 -6.69 3.66 9.89 7.14 3.48 1.14 5.82 1.64
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................ 25,973 26,614 23,937 23,903 20,626 20,712 23,049 25,221 26,229 27,614 30,066 31,057
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 4.73 2.47 -10.06 -0.14 -13.71 0.42 11.28 9.43 4.00 5.28 8.88 3.30
WOOD PRODUCTS…………………………………………............. 628 720 799 755 602 592 620 642 577 574 740 774
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 14.67 14.64 10.95 -5.47 -20.25 -1.81 4.78 3.58 -10.06 -0.59 28.86 4.67
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS…………………………….. 1,914 2,076 2,188 1,889 890 1,227 1,555 1,391 1,164 1,314 1,226 1,149
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -0.71 8.44 5.40 -13.67 -52.90 37.94 26.71 -10.54 -16.33 12.91 -6.68 -6.33
PRIMARY METALS………….……………………………................. 907 866 703 730 766 814 919 1,129 1,237 1,252 1,480 1,694
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.41 -4.47 -18.83 3.76 5.03 6.24 12.93 22.79 9.56 1.24 18.21 14.44
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………………………… 3,798 4,057 4,018 3,489 3,527 3,584 3,429 3,678 3,558 3,779 3,942 4,279
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -2.02 6.80 -0.96 -13.15 1.08 1.62 -4.32 7.27 -3.28 6.21 4.32 8.54
MACHINERY………………………………………………………… 5,210 4,398 3,436 3,719 2,760 2,529 2,633 2,365 2,924 2,641 2,558 2,506
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 6.69 -15.59 -21.87 8.21 -25.77 -8.38 4.12 -10.18 23.63 -9.68 -3.14 -2.03
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…………………………… 2,136 1,964 2,448 3,526 4,056 1,672 1,432 1,165 895 786 920 925
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -9.17 -8.02 24.59 44.07 15.04 -58.79 -14.34 -18.63 -23.21 -12.15 17.01 0.58
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES & COMPONENTS…… 2,988 2,913 2,283 2,651 2,909 2,361 2,349 3,176 2,957 3,050 3,851 3,743
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.24 -2.51 -21.63 16.11 9.72 -18.82 -0.51 35.21 -6.90 3.14 26.27 -2.82
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS, & PARTS……………… 5,343 6,632 5,017 4,158 1,972 4,789 6,887 8,397 9,721 10,967 11,291 12,294
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 20.24 24.14 -24.36 -17.11 -52.59 142.93 43.81 21.92 15.77 12.82 2.95 8.88
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT…………………………… 808 692 668 561 423 471 515 456 365 445 422 441
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 9.47 -14.39 -3.47 -15.92 -24.62 11.37 9.17 -11.40 -19.99 22.00 -5.13 4.37
FURNITURE…………………………………………………………….. 880 821 803 625 471 420 401 431 491 534 594 566
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -9.46 -6.74 -2.12 -22.21 -24.58 -10.90 -4.57 7.43 13.94 8.74 11.40 -4.80
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS……………………………… 1,360 1,474 1,575 1,800 2,249 2,253 2,309 2,391 2,341 2,272 3,042 2,687
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)

Percentage change…………………………………………………… 10.57 8.40 6.80 14.28 24.99 0.16 2.47 3.55 -2.07 -2.94 33.87 -11.65
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………………………… 16,658 18,270 19,047 17,505 18,014 19,340 20,963 21,932 22,564 21,735 22,156 22,020
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -1.92 9.68 4.25 -8.10 2.91 7.36 8.39 4.62 2.88 -3.67 1.93 -0.61
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO............................................ 5,541 6,268 7,001 6,308 6,915 7,087 7,605 7,348 7,152 7,209 7,685 8,337
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.59 13.11 11.70 -9.90 9.63 2.49 7.30 -3.38 -2.66 0.79 6.61 8.47
TEXTILE MILLS & TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS……………………… 645 684 585 606 421 359 290 327 460 438 481 512
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -16.58 6.09 -14.42 3.48 -30.48 -14.80 -19.23 13.00 40.60 -4.94 9.89 6.40
APPAREL & LEATHER PRODUCTS………………………………… 239 204 200 221 213 251 214 215 358 192 197 194
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -13.31 -14.40 -2.06 10.71 -3.88 17.73 -14.53 0.39 66.68 -46.33 2.64 -1.85
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
 Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars) January 2019
Historical Data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PAPER…………………………………………………………………… 2,466 2,842 2,405 2,356 2,590 2,647 2,293 2,421 2,520 2,487 2,305 2,492
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.19 15.25 -15.37 -2.04 9.94 2.21 -13.37 5.59 4.09 -1.31 -7.33 8.11
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………………………………… 1,003 1,078 1,057 1,136 1,092 1,065 1,127 1,147 1,321 1,350 1,332 1,395
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 6.20 7.54 -1.96 7.45 -3.84 -2.54 5.82 1.84 15.11 2.21 -1.29 4.67
CHEMICALS……………………………………………………………… 3,532 4,240 4,279 3,942 4,554 5,032 5,651 6,238 6,592 5,413 5,934 5,546
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -21.77 20.04 0.92 -7.87 15.52 10.50 12.29 10.40 5.66 -17.89 9.64 -6.54
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………………………………… 2,553 2,493 2,971 2,536 1,757 2,499 3,498 3,811 3,651 3,613 3,176 2,556
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 24.03 -2.34 19.19 -14.64 -30.73 42.21 40.01 8.95 -4.21 -1.02 -12.10 -19.52
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS………………………… 681 462 549 400 471 401 286 424 509 1,034 1,044 989
Percentage change…………………………………………………… -6.37 -32.17 18.93 -27.19 17.89 -14.94 -28.70 48.33 20.12 102.90 1.01 -5.31
TRADE………….....................……..................…….................................. 49,668 51,705 51,813 51,475 47,338 49,329 51,048 53,523 54,870 57,117 60,081 63,119
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 5.24 4.10 0.21 -0.65 -8.04 4.21 3.48 4.85 2.52 4.09 5.19 5.06
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………..................... 16,831 17,918 18,836 19,205 16,671 17,273 17,931 19,372 20,014 21,136 21,960 22,432
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 6.33 6.46 5.12 1.96 -13.20 3.61 3.81 8.04 3.32 5.60 3.90 2.15
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….................... 17,992 18,642 18,717 18,261 17,961 18,594 19,226 20,203 20,770 22,251 24,398 26,406
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 7.58 3.61 0.40 -2.44 -1.65 3.52 3.40 5.08 2.81 7.13 9.65 8.23
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………………………… 14,845 15,145 14,260 14,008 12,707 13,463 13,892 13,948 14,086 13,730 13,724 14,282
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.40 2.02 -5.85 -1.76 -9.29 5.95 3.19 0.40 0.99 -2.52 -0.05 4.07
INFORMATION……………………………………………………................. 6,527 7,428 8,610 8,192 8,495 8,474 8,497 7,913 8,394 8,676 10,397 11,470
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 10.91 13.79 15.92 -4.85 3.70 -0.24 0.26 -6.86 6.07 3.36 19.84 10.32
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................ 31,328 32,984 36,075 37,012 39,030 40,767 42,447 43,305 44,344 45,963 48,720 51,270
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.04 5.29 9.37 2.60 5.45 4.45 4.12 2.02 2.40 3.65 6.00 5.24
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………………......... 21,348 22,172 23,471 25,542 25,047 26,735 28,030 30,823 32,682 34,036 36,178 37,769
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.30 3.86 5.86 8.82 -1.93 6.74 4.84 9.96 6.03 4.14 6.29 4.40
2019 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT

EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………....................... 19,535 20,726 21,791 24,025 26,416 26,663 27,429 29,125 30,143 31,310 33,994 36,421
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 7.67 6.10 5.14 10.25 9.95 0.93 2.88 6.18 3.50 3.87 8.57 7.14
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………..................... 9,939 10,977 11,642 11,010 10,760 11,318 11,968 12,641 13,248 14,643 15,892 16,567
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 7.46 10.44 6.06 -5.43 -2.27 5.19 5.74 5.62 4.80 10.53 8.53 4.25
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………......................... 6,449 6,728 6,701 6,598 6,454 6,622 6,847 7,196 7,200 7,447 7,654 7,899

Historical Data
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 3.27 4.33 -0.40 -1.54 -2.19 2.61 3.39 5.11 0.05 3.44 2.78 3.20
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………........................ 26,992 28,020 27,105 30,275 31,687 31,192 32,621 34,231 34,589 35,554 36,603 37,578
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 10.51 3.81 -3.26 11.70 4.66 -1.56 4.58 4.94 1.05 2.79 2.95 2.66
FEDERAL.............................................…………………………………… 7,577 7,887 8,060 7,804 8,115 8,461 8,392 8,383 8,779 9,733 10,275 10,280
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 1.47 4.09 2.20 -3.18 3.99 4.26 -0.82 -0.11 4.73 10.87 5.57 0.04

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STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................ 19415.6 20132.8 19044.7 22471.6 23572 22730.6 24229.1 25848.7 25810.2 25821.1 26327.9 27298.7
Percentage change…………………………………………………… 14.50 3.69 -5.40 17.99 4.90 -3.57 6.59 6.68 -0.15 0.04 1.96 3.69

APPENDIX B
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric Model
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