exponental smoothing using alpha values by bilal masood

ME MAPE MSE ME MAPE MSE ME MAPE MSE ME MAPE MSE ME MAPE MSE
D-F error absolute percentage error squared error D-F error absolute percentage
squared error
error D-F error absolute percentage
squared error
error D-F error absolute percentage
squared error
error D-F error absolute percentage
squared error
error
Period Product A error abs % error squared error
naïve Product B error abs % errorsquared error
naïve Product C error abs % errorsquared error
naïve Product D error abs % errorsquared error
naïve Product E error abs % errorsquared error
naïve
1 96 0 0 0 96 107 0 0 0 107 164 0 0 0 164 168 0 0 0 168 217 0 0 0 217
2 98 2 0.020408163 4 96 94 -13 0.138298 169 107 156 -8 0.051282 64 164 200 32 0.16 1024 168 190 -27 0.142105 729 217
3 103 7 0.067961165 49 96 98 -8 0.081633 64 106 161 -1 0.006211 1 162 194 13 0.06701 169 181 184 -20 0.108696 400 204
4 97 0 0 0 97 100 -5 0.05 25 105 155 -7 0.045161 49 162 177 -9 0.050847 81 186 196 2 0.010204 4 194
5 104 7 0.067307692 49 97 95 -10 0.105263 100 105 152 -8 0.052632 64 160 172 -10 0.05814 100 182 185 -10 0.054054 100 195
6 96 -2 0.020833333 4 98 106 2 0.018868 4 104 155 -3 0.019355 9 158 195 17 0.087179 289 178 208 18 0.086538 324 190
7 103 5 0.048543689 25 98 102 -2 0.019608 4 104 153 -4 0.026144 16 157 193 8 0.041451 64 185 196 -3 0.015306 9 199
8 103 4 0.038834951 16 99 104 0 0 0 104 150 -6 0.04 36 156 191 3 0.015707 9 188 199 1 0.005025 1 198
9 103 4 0.038834951 16 99 95 -9 0.094737 81 104 151 -4 0.02649 16 155 182 -7 0.038462 49 189 219 20 0.091324 400 199
10 103 4 0.038834951 16 99 90 -13 0.144444 169 103 158 4 0.025316 16 154 181 -5 0.027624 25 186 204 -5 0.02451 25 209
11 99 0 0 0 99 107 5 0.046729 25 102 159 4 0.025157 16 155 161 -23 0.142857 529 184 215 8 0.037209 64 207
12 103 4 0.038834951 16 99 103 0 0 0 103 154 -2 0.012987 4 156 189 14 0.074074 196 175 182 -29 0.159341 841 211
13 100 1 0.01 1 99 90 -13 0.144444 169 103 159 3 0.018868 9 156 171 -10 0.05848 100 181 212 15 0.070755 225 197
14 105 6 0.057142857 36 99 104 2 0.019231 4 102 155 -2 0.012903 4 157 174 -3 0.017241 9 177 196 -9 0.045918 81 205
15 96 -4 0.041666667 16 100 103 1 0.009709 1 102 154 -3 0.019481 9 157 163 -13 0.079755 169 176 181 -20 0.110497 400 201
16 97 -3 0.030927835 9 100 103 1 0.009709 1 102 162 6 0.037037 36 156 195 24 0.123077 576 171 200 9 0.045 81 191
17 103 3 0.029126214 9 100 92 -10 0.108696 100 102 158 0 0 0 158 190 9 0.047368 81 181 210 14 0.066667 196 196
18 100 0 0 0 100 94 -7 0.074468 49 101 164 6 0.036585 36 158 178 -7 0.039326 49 185 213 10 0.046948 100 203
19 102 2 0.019607843 4 100 108 8 0.074074 64 100 158 -2 0.012658 4 160 198 16 0.080808 256 182 209 1 0.004785 1 208
20 100 0 0 0 100 104 3 0.028846 9 101 154 -6 0.038961 36 160 166 -22 0.13253 484 188 208 -1 0.004808 1 209
21 97 -3 0.030927835 9 100 100 -1 0.01 1 101 162 3 0.018519 9 159 187 8 0.042781 64 179 191 -18 0.094241 324 209
22 99 -1 0.01010101 1 100 94 -7 0.074468 49 101 159 -1 0.006289 1 160 166 -16 0.096386 256 182 216 16 0.074074 256 200
23 95 -5 0.052631579 25 100 93 -7 0.075269 49 100 152 -8 0.052632 64 160 186 10 0.053763 100 176 199 -9 0.045226 81 208
24 99 -1 0.01010101 1 100 106 7 0.066038 49 99 163 5 0.030675 25 158 167 -13 0.077844 169 180 188 -16 0.085106 256 204
25 102 2 0.019607843 4 100 102 2 0.019608 4 100 150 -9 0.06 81 159 172 -3 0.017442 9 175 183 -13 0.071038 169 196
26 105 5 0.047619048 25 100 102 2 0.019608 4 100 153 -4 0.026144 16 157 182 8 0.043956 64 174 219 29 0.13242 841 190
27 100 -1 0.01 1 101 94 -6 0.06383 36 100 154 -2 0.012987 4 156 176 -1 0.005682 1 177 217 12 0.0553 144 205
28 96 -5 0.052083333 25 101 93 -6 0.064516 36 99 153 -3 0.019608 9 156 169 -8 0.047337 64 177 205 -6 0.029268 36 211
29 101 0 0 0 101 93 -5 0.053763 25 98 152 -3 0.019737 9 155 166 -8 0.048193 64 174 219 11 0.050228 121 208
30 98 -3 0.030612245 9 101 97 -1 0.010309 1 98 150 -4 0.026667 16 154 187 16 0.085561 256 171 202 -12 0.059406 144 214
31 101 98 153 177 208

MEAN ERROR 0.965517 MEAN ERROR -3.10345 MEAN ERROR -2.03448 MEAN ERROR 0.689655 MEAN ERROR -1.10345
MEAN absolute percentage error 0.028709 2.870859 MEAN absolute percentage error 0.054206 5.420551 MEAN absolute percentage error 0.026913 2.691328 MEAN absolute percentage error 0.064168 6.416833 MEAN absolute percentage error 0.062965 6.296546
MEAN SQUARED ERROR 12.75862 MEAN SQUARED ERROR 44.55172 MEAN SQUARED ERROR 22.72414 MEAN SQUARED ERROR 182.9655 MEAN SQUARED ERROR 219.1034
alpha 0.1 alpha 0.1 alpha 0.25 alpha 0.4 alpha 0.5

demand vs forecast A demand vs forecast B demand vs forecast C demand vs forecast D demand vs forecast E
106 110 166 250
250
108 164
104 106 31, 208
162 200 200
104
160 31, 177
102 102
150
demand

150

demand

demand
demand
31, 101 100 158
demand

100 98 31, 98 demand of B 156 demand demand of E

Product A demand of D 100
96 100
forecast 154 forecast forecast of D forecast of E
98 forecast 94 31, 153
92 152 50
50
96 90 150
88 148 0 0
94 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 periods periods periods periods
period