Lesson Title: Conditional Probability Course: Common Core Geometry, Unit 5

Date: _____________ Teacher(s): ____________________ Start/end times: _________________________

Lesson Standards/Objective(s): What mathematical skill(s) and understanding(s) will be developed?

Which Mathematical Practices do you expect students to engage in during the lesson?

S.CP.A.3 Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/ P(B), and interpret
independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the
probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

MP2: Reason abstractly and quantitatively.

MP3: Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
MP7: Look for and make use of structure.

Common Core Geometry, Unit 5

Lesson Launch Notes: Exactly how will you use Lesson Closure Notes: Exactly what summary
the first five minutes of the lesson? activity, questions, and discussion will close the
lesson and connect big ideas? List the questions.
Using the Venn diagram from the Conditional Provide a foreshadowing of tomorrow.
Probability Data resource, have students answer
the following questions. 1. Refer back at the Soccer Players and
Swimmers Venn diagram. Mathematically
1. P(swimmer) prove that “choosing a swimmer” and
2. P(soccer player) “choosing a soccer player” are not
3. P(swimmer and soccer player) independent events using the formula for
P(swimmer | soccer player).
2. Use the Conditional Probability Color Cards
to verify whether P(choosing a red card |
choosing a purple card) with replacement is an
example of independent conditional
probability or not.

Answers:
3 7
1. ≠
8 12

2. It is independent because when you put the card

back in the pile, our sample space and number of red
cards does not change. Pulling a purple card does not
affect pulling a red card.

HCPSS Secondary Mathematics Office (v2.1); adapted from: Leinwand, S. (2009). Accessible mathematics: 10 instructional shifts that raise student
achievement. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.
Lesson Title: Conditional Probability Course: Common Core Geometry, Unit 5
Date: _____________ Teacher(s): ____________________ Start/end times: _________________________

Lesson Tasks, Problems, and Activities (attach resource sheets): What specific activities,
investigations, problems, questions, or tasks will students be working on during the lesson? Be sure to
indicate strategic connections to appropriate mathematical practices.

7 8 2
1. Discuss the answers, as a class, to the lesson launch. P(swimmer) = , P(soccer player) = = , and
12 12 3
3 1
P(swimmer and soccer player) = = .
12 4
2. Use the Venn diagram from the lesson launch to answer the following questions developing an
understanding of conditional probability. Have students tell the class how they developed their answers.
Next to each question there are sample student answers. (Look for evidence of MP3.)
 P(swimmer | soccer player) Look at only those soccer players who are swimmers, so the sample
space recedes to 8 from the total 12. Since 3 of the soccer players are also swimmers the probability
3
is equal to .
8
 P(soccer | swimmer) Three of the swimmers play soccer and there are 7 swimmers so the
3
probability is .
7
≠
Explain to the students that these are examples of conditional probability. (Look for evidence of MP7.)
3
3. Have students find the probability that a person both plays soccer and swims (answer: ) and the
12
≠ 7
probability that a person swims (answer: ). Have students discuss what they notice about these two
12
probabilities and how they relate to the probability that a person plays soccer, given that they swim. As
a result of the discussion, students should be able to generate the mathematical algorithm for
P(A ≠ B)
conditional probability: P (A | B) = .
P(B)
4. Have students look at the two-way table “Students and Their Favorite Subjects” and find the following
probabilities. Discuss strategies, highlighting both those that use the algorithm and those that use the
two-way table to generate the probability. If no students use the algorithm, verify a few as a class.
Compare the pros and cons of each method.
 P(favorite subject is science 6th grader) = 12/70
 P(favorite subject is math 8th grader) = 6/23
 P(7th grader favorite subject is English) = 19/50
 P(favorite subject is English or Social Studies 7th grader) = 35/59

5. Divide the class into groups of three or four. Give each group a standard number cube and define event
A = {rolling a 6 on the second roll}, event B = {rolling a 3 on the first roll}. Ask students to find P(A |
B).

HCPSS Secondary Mathematics Office (v2.1); adapted from: Leinwand, S. (2009). Accessible mathematics: 10 instructional shifts that raise student
achievement. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.
Lesson Title: Conditional Probability Course: Common Core Geometry, Unit 5
Date: _____________ Teacher(s): ____________________ Start/end times: _________________________

, since A and B are independent situations, P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B).

Therefore, Ask students what they recognize about the answer and the

question. P(A | B) = P(A) = P(B). Ask if students can postulate why this is true? (Answer: the two
events, A and B, are independent of each other since one roll of the die does not dictate the next.
Therefore, it would make sense that the probability of rolling a 6 would be equal to the probability
of rolling a 6 given a 3 has been rolled.) Note to students that it is not always true that all three
probabilities would be equal as shown in the next example. (Look for evidence of MP2.)

6. Give each group a set of the Conditional Probability Color Cards and define event A = {choosing a blue
card on the second pick, with replacement} and event B = {choosing a green card on the first pick}.
Have students use the algorithm to find P(A | B) .
Answer: P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B). Since A and B are independent events, P(A and B) =
P(A)*P(B). Then,
P(A)* P(B)
P(A B) =
P(B)
Students should be able to see right away P(B) will cancel out from the numerator and the
denominator so the overall answer is P(A) or 2/9. Thus, we see again that P(A | B) = P(A). These
last two examples demonstrate how A and B can be independent events if the conditional
probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A. Likewise, A and B are independent
events if the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. Look for
evidence of MP 7.)

7. Have a discussion with the class to summarize the concepts learned in this lesson. Discuss real-world
conditional probabilities (the idea of narrowing down a sample space by having a ‘given’ event), how
conditional probabilities can be presented (Venn diagrams, two-way tables, situations with or without
replacement, situations where some event took place prior to another), and how some conditional
probabilities have independent events (when the first event does not affect the outcome(s) of the
second).

Notes and Nuances: Vocabulary, connections, anticipated misconceptions (and how they will be
addressed), etc.

Conditional Probability, P(A | B) = P(A given B), the probability of event A happening given event B has
occurred. The conditional probability can also be solved for the P(B | A) = P(B given A), the probability of
event B happening given event A has occurred.

Note conditional probability examples and questions should be limited to diagrams, tables and experiments
with replacement.

Resources: What materials or resources are Homework: Exactly what follow-up homework tasks,
HCPSS Secondary Mathematics Office (v2.1); adapted from: Leinwand, S. (2009). Accessible mathematics: 10 instructional shifts that raise student
achievement. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.
Lesson Title: Conditional Probability Course: Common Core Geometry, Unit 5
Date: _____________ Teacher(s): ____________________ Start/end times: _________________________
essential for students to successfully complete the problems, and/or exercises will be assigned upon the
lesson tasks or activities? completion of the lesson?

Conditional Probability Data Conditional Probability Homework

Six-sided number cubes
Conditional Probability Color Cards
Conditional Probability Homework

Lesson Reflections: How do you know that you were effective? What questions, connected to the lesson
standards/objectives and evidence of success, will you use to reflect on the effectiveness of this lesson?

Were students successful with finding conditional probabilities given Venn diagrams and two-way tables?
Were students able to distinguish between independent conditional probabilities and dependent
probabilities?

Howard County Public Schools Office of Secondary Mathematics Curricular Projects has licensed this
product under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

HCPSS Secondary Mathematics Office (v2.1); adapted from: Leinwand, S. (2009). Accessible mathematics: 10 instructional shifts that raise student
achievement. Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann.