Chapter 21.

The Overshoot of the Kaibab Deer Population 279

consumption decline in the second half of the simulation owing to the collapse in the deer
population. This model comes close to the target pattern, but the peak population is somewhat:
less than the estimate from Rasmussen. The missing ingredient may be the nutritional
value of the older biomass.

80.000

consumption
of old biomass
60.000

40.000

�0.000 Figure 21.14. Stacked

graph of the biomass
consumed by deer.
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940

F ift:h Model: Nutritional Benefit of Old Biomass

Figure 21.15 shows the addition of an old-biomass nutrition factor. This was ignored in
t:he previous model; its value is set to 25% in the new model. This means that 4 kilograms
of older biomass deliver the equivalent benefit of 1 kilogram of new growth. The fraction of

_._-fullness effect lookup

fullness effect on bio
� fullness fraction _ maximum initial standing
biomass _..- productivity biomass
productivity + .,.__ biomass

/+ \_
intrinsic bio
new
+ biomass
+ +

Standing
productivity '-...... + - addition to Biomass
� standing
\
frofnew biomass +
biorrnss wilhin -...._ + consumption of
reach + new biomass \ old biomass + fr of added ongmal
ava1lable iomass remammg
+\�
fr of new + ,
,orage + �
fr of forage needs�
biomass within
met from new growth + consumption -....
�
reach - additional fr of added forage
� forage + forage required req consumed
�
'-...__ � (+ + availability /
equivalent fr of ratio �
-
� forage needs met /' + forage required per
+ deer per year
/ forage _+ ------
old biomass required � <Time>
+ number of ...- lookup for predators
nutrition factor �
deer net birth rate predators

/
lookup for 2nd shape

lookup for net deer deaths

birth rate + from predation �
area ___,._� deer density
� deer killed per
predator per year

Figure 21.15. The fifth model adds some nutritional benefit from the older biomass.