Name: Sanju Priya V

Roll No: 1811142

Section: B

Question 1
Data Choice of interest: World’s Youth Unemployment Rate (18 to 24 yrs) for year 2014

Source: www.data.worldbank.org

No of Countries observed: 109

Descriptive Statistics:

Parameters
Unemployment Rate (%) - 2014
Mean 15.76
Standard Error 1.05
Median 11.10
Mode 10.90
Standard Deviation 10.96
Sample Variance 120.13
Range 48.80
Minimum 0.70
Maximum 49.50
Count 109

From the descriptive statistics, we can infer that the world's average youth unemployment rate is
15.76% for age group 18-24 years of year 2014.
 Question 2
World's Youth Unemployment Rate (18 to 24 years) for year 2014
Source: www.data.worldbank.org
Regional Wise Split of Unemployment Rate
Eastern & Western
Africa Unemployment rate (%) Asia Unemployment rate (%)
Burundi 10.70 Afghanistan 20.80
Comoros 10.60 Armenia 35.10
Eritrea 10.90 Azerbaijan 13.60
Ethiopia 7.10 Bangladesh 9.10
Kenya 17.40 Bhutan 10.00

Madagascar 5.20 Brunei Darussalam 11.10

Malawi 13.80 Cambodia 0.90

Mauritius 21.20 China 10.50

Mozambique 40.70 Georgia 34.10
Rwanda 0.70 India 10.40

Somalia 10.60 Indonesia 21.80

Uganda 6.80 Japan 6.50

Zambia 25.10 Kazakhstan 3.50

Zimbabwe 9.40 Kyrgyz Republic 14.70
Benin 1.70 Lao PDR 3.40
Burkina Faso 5.00 Macao SAR, China 2.90
Ghana 3.30 Malaysia 6.70
Guinea 1.70 Maldives 26.90
Guinea-Bissau 11.10 Mongolia 9.30
Liberia 4.60 Nepal 4.00
Mali 10.50 Pakistan 8.60
Mauritania 46.60 Singapore 9.60
Niger 7.10 Tajikistan 15.50
Nigeria 13.60 Thailand 3.90
Senegal 13.00 Turkmenistan 20.20
Sierra Leone 4.90 Uzbekistan 20.30
Togo 10.70 Vietnam 6.30

Mean Unemployment Mean Unemployment

rate (%) 12 rate (%) 12.58
Central,South & Northern
America Unemployment rate (%) Europe Unemployment rate (%)
Belize 22.00 Albania 29.20
Costa Rica 19.20 Belarus 12.00
El Salvador 11.70 Croatia 45.90
Guatemala 5.40 European Union 25.12
Honduras 6.90 Iceland 10.90

Mexico 9.90 Moldova 8.50

Nicaragua 7.60 Montenegro 39.50

Panama 11.00 Norway 8.40

Argentina 21.30 Serbia 49.50
Bolivia 5.20 Switzerland 8.70

Brazil 15.20 Turkey 17.70

Chile 16.40 Ukraine 16.90
Mean
Unemployment
Colombia 18.90 rate (%) 22.69
Ecuador 10.80
Guyana 23.80
Paraguay 9.30
Peru 9.20
Suriname 17.90
Uruguay 19.10
Canada 13.40
United States 14.00

Mean Unemployment rate

(%) 13.72
 Unemployment Unemployment Northern & southern Unemployment
Middle East rate (%) Caribbean rate (%) africa rate (%)
Bahrain 10.90 Barbados 26.80 Algeria 20.00
Iraq 34.60 Cuba 7.10 Tunisia 31.80
Israel 11.00 Dominican Republic 31.40 Botswana 33.90
Jordan 28.80 Haiti 17.10 Lesotho 33.00
Kuwait 19.40 Jamaica 30.50 Namibia 38.70
Mean Unemployment
Lebanon 20.70 Puerto Rico 27.80 rate (%) 31.48
Oman 18.80 Trinidad and Tobago 10.60
Mean
Unemployment rate
Qatar 1.30 (%) 21.61
Saudi Arabia 29.50
United Arab Emirates 10.00
Mean Unemployment
rate (%) 18.49

As per the data set explained in question 1 along with the above data, the following analysis is done

Mean Unemployment Rate (%) - Regional Wise

Mean unemployment
Regions rate (%)
Eastern & Western Africa 12
Asia 12.58
Central,South & Northern America 13.72
Europe 22.69
Middle East 18.49
Caribbean 21.61
Northern & southern africa 31.48

MEAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(%) - REGIONAL WISE

31.48

22.69 21.61
18.49

12.58 13.72
12

Eastern & Asia Central,South Europe Middle East Caribbean Northern &
Western & Northern southern
Africa America africa
 Range of unemployment rate % No of countries falling in the
range
0 to 10 37
10 to 20 40
20 to 30 18
30 to 40 10
40 to 50 4

No of countries falling in particular range of

unemployment rate
45 40
40 37
35
30
25
20 18
15 10
10
4
5
0
0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50

Parameters Considered: Mean & Range

Inferences
a) As inferred from the Graph 1, world's average youth unemployment rate is more in Northern &
Southern Africa and least in Eastern, Western Africa & Asia for age group 18-24 years.
b) As inferred from Graph 2, most of the countries (around 77 countries) fall in the least
unemployment range 0% to 20% and only 4 countries fall in the highest unemployment range
of 40% to 50%.
c) Thus the 4 countries falling under the highest unemployment range (40% to 50%) are either less
developed countries (Mauritania, Mozambique) or developing countries (Croatia, Serbia) and
the 77 countries with the least unemployment rate % (0% to 20%) are mostly developed
countries.
 Question 3
Question 50:

A telephone survey to determine viewer response to a new television show obtained following data:

Rating Frequency
Poor 4
Below Average 8
Average 11
Above Average 14
Excellent 13

a) What is the Probability that a randomly selected viewer will rate the new show as average or
better?

Total Responses of the telephone survey: 50

Responses rated as average or better = 11+14+13

= 38

Probability that a randomly selected viewer will rate the new show as average or better = 38/50

= 0.76

Ans: 0.76

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected viewer will rate the new show below average
or worse?

Total Responses of the telephone survey: 50

Responses rated as poor or worse: 4+8 = 12

Probability that a randomly selected viewer will rate the new show below average or worse = 12/50

=0.24

Ans: 0.24
Question 48:

Forty-Three percent of Americans use social media and other websites to voice their opinions about
television programs( The Huffington post,November 23,2011).Below are the results of a survey of
1400 individuals who were asked if they use social media and other websites to voice their opinions
about television programs.

Gender Uses social media and other websites Doesn’t use social media and other
to voice opinions about television websites to voice opinions about
programs television programs
Female 395 291
Male 323 355

a. What is the probability a respondent is female?

Probability that respondent is female P( R=Female) = (395+323)/(323+355+395+291)

P(F) = 686/1364 = 0.5029

Ans= 0.5029

b. What is the conditional probability a respondent uses social media and other websites to
voice opinions about television programs given the respondent is female?

Probability (Respondent uses social media & other websites to voice opinions ꓵ Respondent is
Female) / (Respondent is a Female)

P(A | F) = (395/1364) / (686/1364)

= 0.5758

Ans = 0.5758
c. Let F denote the event that the respondent is female and A denote the event that the
respondent uses social media and other websites to voice opinions about television programs.
Are events F and A independent?

If F and A are independent events, then P(A | F) must be equal to P(F)

From part (a), we get,

Let P(F) is the probability of the event that the respondent is female

P(F) = 686/1364 = 0.5029

From part (b), we get,

Probability that a respondent is female and uses social media and other websites to voice their
opinions

P(A | F) = (395/1364) / (686/1364) = 0.5758

Thus P(F) = 0.5029 ; P(A|F) = 0.5758

Since P(A | F) ≠ P(F), A and F are not independent events

 Question 4
The different (n,x) pairs used are (20,2),(30,3),(40,4),(50,5) and (60,6)

Case 1: n = 20 ; x = 2

Bayesian Revision Market Share

Binomial

p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total

Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1

New Evidence
n 20 x 2

Total
Joint
Prob. 0.0143 0.0205 0.0056 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0413

Posterior 0.3450 0.4969 0.1348 0.0224 0.0009 0.0000

Bayesian Revision - Binomial

0.6

0.5

0.4
Probability

0.3 Prior
Posterior
0.2

0.1

0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
p
 Case 2: n = 30 ; x = 3

Bayesian Revision Market Share

Binomial

p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total

Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1

New Evidence
n 30 x 3

Total
Joint
Prob. 0.0118 0.0118 0.0014 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0251

Posterior 0.4702 0.4692 0.0574 0.0032 0.0000 0.0000

Bayesian Revision - Binomial

0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
Probability

0.3
0.25 Prior
0.2 Posterior
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
p
 Case 3: n = 40 ; x = 4

Bayesian Revision Market Share

Binomial

p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total

Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1

New Evidence
n 40 x 4

Total
Joint
Prob. 0.0103 0.0071 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0178

Posterior 0.5779 0.3996 0.0220 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000

Bayesian Revision - Binomial

0.7

0.6

0.5
Probability

0.4
Prior
0.3
Posterior
0.2

0.1

0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
p
 Case 4 : n = 50 ; x = 5

Bayesian Revision Market Share

Binomial

p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total

Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1

New Evidence
n 50 x 5

Total
Joint
Prob. 0.0092 0.0044 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0138

Posterior 0.6707 0.3213 0.0080 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Bayesian Revision - Binomial

0.8
0.7
0.6
Probability

0.5
0.4 Prior
0.3 Posterior

0.2
0.1
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
p
 Case 5: n = 60 ; x = 6

Bayesian Revision Market Share

Binomial

p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total

Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1

New Evidence
n 60 x 6

Total
Joint
Prob. 0.0085 0.0028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0113

Posterior 0.7487 0.2485 0.0028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Bayesian Revision - Binomial

0.8
0.7
0.6
Probability

0.5
0.4 Prior
0.3 Posterior

0.2
0.1
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
p