Methods of Project Scheduling

1. Bar chart
2. Linked bar chart
3. Critical path method (AOA method-Activity on arrows)
4. Precedence Diagramming method (AON method- Activity on
nodes)
5. PERT method(program Evaluation and review Technique
method)
6. Probabilistic method (Based on simulation/ models)
The first four methods use a single estimate for the activity
durations (task durations) and obtain single estimate for the
project duration. Hence these methods are called deterministic
models of project scheduling. These methods do not consider
uncertainty in the activity time estimates and hence use single
values for activity durations.
PERT(Program evaluation and review technique) method

 Unlike critical path method and precedence diagramming

method, PERT method considers uncertainty in the activity
durations.
 PERT method was originally developed for R&D projects
wherein there are uncertainties in the time duration of the
research activities.
 PERT is based on statistical models and uses statistical
approach of project scheduling and predict the project
durations using the theory of probability.
 In PERT method of network analysis, as a means of
incorporating the uncertainties in the activity time durations,
three time estimates for activity durations are considered for
each of the project activities.
to- optimistic time estimate
tp- pessimistic time estimate
tm- most likely time estimate
Concepts of three time estimates used in PERT method
1) Optimistic time estimate (to )
It is the minimum time required to complete the activity
considering everything goes well. The chance of adherence to
is one in hundred which means the probability of exceeding
to is 99%.

2) Pessimistic time estimate (tp)

It is the minimum time required to complete the activity
considering everything goes well. The chance of adherence to
is one in hundred which means the probability of exceeding
tp is 99%.

3) Most likely time estimate (tm )

It is the most likely time estimate based on experience from
past projects and alternatively stated, it is the time required
to complete the activity more often than any other time if
the activity is repeated many times. The chance of
occurrence of tmis 50 in one hundred, which means
probability of occurrence of tm is 50%.
Representation of to ,tpand tm in probability distribution curve

Percentage probability is measured from the probability

distribution curve as area bounded between probability curve, x-
axis and upto the vertical line passing through the time estimate.
(Concept of normal probability distribution).

The probability distribution could be uniform as in (a) or

distribution which could be skewed to the right or skewed to the
left as shown in (b) and (c).
Statistical relationships used in PERT method

For each activity of the PERT network, the weighted average of to

,tpand tm are used to obtain the expected duration of the activity
(te)

1) Expected activity durations te=

2) Expected standard deviation of activity ( σ) =
3) Activity ( σ2i) =
4) Total project variance = summation of variances of critical
activities on critical path

σ2= (σ21 + σ21 + σ21 +---------------------------)

 5) Project standard deviation = =σ
6) Project expected duration (TE) = Sum of the duration of the
critical activities as critical path of PERT return.
7) z(probability score) =

x is from mean
z is the probability score or number of standard deviation in
normal distribution (obtained from standard normal distribution
table )
x- Target project duration for which probability is to be
determined
- Project mean expected duration (TE ) as calculated from PERT
analysis with expected activity durations (te).
Steps involved in PERT analysis
1) Identify project activities (tasks) through WBS.

2) Establish activity sequencing through logical relationships (FS,

SS, FF, SF) in the Precedence Diagram.

3) For each of the activity duration establish the three time

estimates of PERT ( to, tm, tp)
- The most likely time estimate tm to be estimated from
normal productivity norms, data from past projects.
- The pessimistic and optimistic time estimates be worked
out depending upon the uncertainty likely to be involved in
the activities.
Example: to = 75% tm ,tp= 125% tm

4) Calculate the mean expected time duration of the activities

from the three time estimates using the weighted average
formula
te=

5) Now using te as single time estimates of various activities.

Carryout PDM network analysis through forward pass and
backward pass calculations and determine the critical path
and critical activities and resulting project (mean) expected
duration te (teshall be the sum of the te‘s of critical activities)
6) Calculate the variances ands square of the variances for each
of the activities. For ith activity.
Variance σi= or

Square of σi2=

7) Calculate the total project variance as sum of the variances of

the critical activities
σ2= (σ2c1 + σ2c2 + σ2c3 +---------------------------)
c1,c2, c3 ………………………. Indicate the critical activities.

8) Find the standard deviations for the total project as square

root of the project variance
Standard deviation σ = √ σ2
Now we have project (mean) expected duration teand
projectstandard deviation σ from which probabilities can be
calculated.

9) The calculations in the above steps can be arranged in the

form of a table of PERT analysis.
10) The project scheduling through PERT method considers
the uncertainties in the activity durations in the form of three
time estimates (to, tm, tp) and the PERT network analysis
provides:
TE - The project (mean) expected durations
σ- The standard deviation
 The probability of complete under project (mean) expected
duration is 50%.
11) From TE and σ, the following two types of probability
related information can be calculated.
A) Information on range of project duration for a specified
probability
For a given percentage of probability, what is the range of
expected project duration using the property of normal
distribution curve.

PROBABILITY

Target (mean) expected duration + 68.2%

one standard deviation
Target (mean) expected duration + 95.4%
two standard deviation
Target (mean) expected duration + 99.8%
three standard deviation .
Examples :
a) If a project target mean expected duration is 100 days(TE) and
the standard deviation as calculated by PERT is 5 days (σ), then
the expected project duration shall be 100 + 5 days between 95
days to 105 days for 68.2%. Probability (i.e. TE+ i standard
deviation days)
b) If TE is 100 days and standard deviation is 5 days the project
duration shall be in the range of 100 + 10 daysfor 95.4% probably
of completion.
c) For any other probability, we can obtain the standard deviation
score from the standard uniform probability distribution table and
calculate the range of project completion duration.
B) To obtain information on probability of completion for a
specified duration or specified completion date. (Tx)
The above information is obtained using the relation

z (probability score) =

z=

Knowing TE, Tx and σ obtain z-score.From thestandard normal

distribution Table, read the probability value for the calculated z-
Score.
Example TE = 100 days
 Tx – Specified duration = 110 days
σ = 5 days

z= = =2

For z = 2 probability of completion 97.7%

If Tx = 95 days TE= 100 days σ=5days

z= = -1

For z= -1 Probability of completion duration is 15.90 %

Conceptual Statements:
1) The probability of finishing the project in TE = 50%
2) In CPM/PDM network analysis with single time estimate of
activity durations, the project time duration calculated had
a probability of 50%
3) To increase the probability to acceptable levels extra time
should be added. If one standard deviation days are added
to TE, the probability of completion increases to 50+34 =
84%. If two standard deviation days are added to TE the
probability of completion increases to 50+95/2 = 97.5%
4) If you try to reduce the TE by one standard deviation, then
the probability decreases
= 50 – 34= 16%
If TE is reduced by two standard deviation then the
probability decreases to
= 50-47.5 =2.5%
 ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE ON PERT METHOD
(Through PDM Network Diagram, tabulate the PERT calculation)
PROB) Carryout the PERT analysis for the following data and
workout the TE and standard deviation of the project and make
statements on probabilities of completions if TE is measured and
decreased. What is the probability of completion for TX duration
of 45 days and 38 days.
ACTIVITY THREE TIME ESTIMATES
ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC MOST LIKELY
to tp tm
A 3 21 12
B 1 7 4
C 5 17 14
D 2 14 5
E 6 30 15

SOLUTION-
Expected Activity Durations te= to+4tm+tp /6
Expected Standard Deviation of Activity /6
2
Activity Variance =( )2
2 2 2 2
Total project Variance =( 1 + 2 + 3 +……….)
2
Project standard deviation = =
 ACTIVITY THREE TIME ESTIMATES
VARIANCE
ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC MOST LIKELY te σ
σ2
to tp tm
A 3 21 12 12 3 9
B 1 7 4 4 1 1
C 5 17 14 13 2 4
D 2 14 5 6 2 4
E 6 30 15 16 4 16
√29

TE = 41 DAYS
 = = 5.4 5 DAYS
Probability Score Z = TX – TE /
TX = Target Project Duration
TE = Project Expected Duration
= Standard Deviation
For 48 days
Z = TX – TE / = 48 – 41 / 5 = + 1.4
The probability of completing this project in 45 days is 91.9%
For 45 days
Z = TX – TE / = 45 – 41 / 5 = + 0.8
The probability of completing this project in 45 days is 78.8%
For 38 days
Z = TX – TE / = 38 – 41 / 5 = - 0.6
The probability of completing this project in 38 days is 27.4%
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY UP TO Z FOR STANDARD NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
Z CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY
-3.0 0.001
-2.8 0.003
-2.6 0.005
-2.4 0.008
-2.2 0.014
-2.0 0.023
-1.8 0.036
-1.6 0.055
-1.4 0.081
-1.2 0.115
-1.0 0.159
-0.8 0.212
-0.6 0.274
-0.4 0.345
-0.2 0.421
0.0 0.500
0.2 0.579
0.4 0.655
0.6 0.726
0.8 0.788
1.0 0.841
1.2 0.885
1.4 0.919
1.6 0.945
1.8 0.964
2.0 0.977
2.2 0.986
2.4 0.992
2.6 0.995
2.8 0.997
3.0 0.999