Influences Between IOD, ENSO Against Wheat Production and Its Relation

to Imports in Brazil from 1961 to 2016

Mardiano Putra, Halmar Halide
Department of Geophysics, Geophysics Program, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South
Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper describes the relationship of wheat production of ENSO and IOD and its
relation to wheat import activities in Brazil from 1961 to 2016. Regression correlation
methods, anomalies analysis is used to link wheat production to ENSO, IOD, and imports
from Brazil. The result is that wheat production does not have strong correlation between
ENSO and IOD, and the quantity of imports to wheat production is comparable.

Keywords: Wheat, ENSO, IOD, wheat import.

1. Introduction

Humans do not escape from food. Without food, what happens to the cells in the human
body. In various countries, they have typical staple foods. They consume it because that is
the food production they can easily get in their country. However, even though they can
get food that they want to consume easily, sometimes governments in their countries carry
out import activities to cover food shortages of their country, in order to be able to meet
the food needs of their citizens. As happened to Brazil. Brazil is one of the countries that
makes wheat as its staple food. And, Brazil is also one of the largest wheat producers in the
world. However, Brazil imports wheat where this information shown in Brazil’s wheat
import data onto www.fao.org. This shows that the pattern of wheat consumption of the
Brazilian community is so large that the government imports. In addition, is the import of
wheat made by other things? If we connect with ENSO and IOD with wheat production in
Brazil, will it has a correlation between them? Be there an anomaly between wheat
production and imports from Brazil? Everything will be answered in the study of this paper.

2. Theory

Genetic diversity of plants determines their potential for improved efficiency and hence
their use for breeding. Which eventually may result in enhanced food production. Plant
uniformity, which can be resulted by the use of modern plant breeding techniques, can
produce plants, which are more efficient by means of different goals including enhanced

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resistance under stress, however much more research must be performed to indicate the
most optimized method that can be used for the production of efficient plants. This is of
significance for the production of food for the world increasing population (Fu and Somers,
2009).

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a cereal plant from the Poaceae family (Gramineae)
originating from the subtropical region. Diversity of use nutritional content, functional food
components and storage quality the high makes wheat as a staple food more than one third
of the world’s population (Porter, 2005). Wheat or flour is an ingredient raw processed
food products such as bread, noodles, pasta, pizza, biscuits and others (Bushuk and Rasper,
1994). Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of the most important food crops in the world,
and understanding its genetic and genome organization using molecular markers is of great
value for genetic and plant breeding purposes (Roder dkk, 1998). Wheat (Triticum
aestivum L.) is one kind of serelia plant who needed for human food. Besides being used
as food ingredients for humans, it also used as animal feed. Some drinks alcohol is also
made from fermented wheat seeds. Wheat flour can be processed further into bread, cakes,
spaghetti, macaroni, and others (Nurmala, 1998).

The chemical composition including the proximate component of wheat is relatively no

different with other cereals. Information on the proximate chemical composition of wheat
is sufficient widely available. Diversity of data on each component of nutrition influenced
by genetic factors and cropping environment (Pomeranz, 1971). In general, the effect of
high temperatures on the growth of the grains in cereals including wheat includes a faster
rate of development of grain, decreased grain weight, wrinkled seeds, reduced rate of starch
accumulation changes lipid composition and polypeptide (Stone, 2001).

3. Data and Methodology

3.1 Data

Data onto the production, import from wheat in Brazil were provided in www.fao.org used
in this study. Another indices in this study, such as ENSO and IOD, were provide in
www.noaa.gov. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation. El Nino is one form of
deviation climate of the Pacific Ocean which is characterized by increasing in the sea
surfaced temperature in the area equator in the middle and east. IOD is change in sea surface
temperature in the Indian Ocean region, which is similar to the Pacific region (phenomenon
El Nino).

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3.2 Methodology

3.2.1 Regression Correlation Methods

Regression correlation methods are used in processing production data, ENSO, and IOD.
From this method a correlation value can be obtained between the predictor data which
shows how strong the correlation is between the predictor.

3.2.2 Anomalies Analysis

Anomaly analysis method is used in processing data onto production, import. From this
method can be obtained whether predictor data has a comparison that is directly
proportional or inverse.

4. Result

4.1 Study of Wheat Production and ENSO from 1961 to 2016

Figure 4.1 Correlation between production of

wheat in Brazil with ENSO
The method used in this section is regression correlation. In processing the data, the
evaluation value of AMJ ENSO and wheat production was obtained at -0.2162 and RMSE
1.2342. A negative sign indicates conversion to AMJ ENSO an wheat production is

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inversely proportional. A value of 0.2162 indicates the strength between AMJ ENSO and
wheat production. The percentage of strength is only 21.62%. That means that the conflict
between ENSO and wheat production in Brazil is not very strong.

4.2 Study of Wheat Production and IOD from 1961 to 2016

Figure 4.2 Correlation between production

of wheat with IOD
The method used in this section is regression correlation. In processing data, the correlation
values between wheat production and IOD was 0.0882. It can be seen that the correlation
between wheat production and IOD is directly proportional. The value of 0.082 shows the
strength of the correlation between wheat production and IOD. The percentage of
correlation between the two data is only 8.82%. That means that the correlation between
IOD and Brazil’s wheat production is very weak.

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4.3 Study of Production, Exports, and Imports of Wheat from 1961 to 2016

Figure 4.3 Anomaly between production

and import

The method used in this section is anomaly analysis. In the anomaly analysis method, it
will be shown whether the data in question has anomaly or not. Anomaly in this case is
whether there is a deviation from the data. Empirically, if wheat production is high, the
amount of imported wheat will be small. Vice versa in the results of data processing, it
turns out there are anomalies that occur to certain years. As seen between 1970 – 1980.
Wheat production that year was quite high, but the import of wheat in that year was also
high.

5. Conclusion

From the results of this study, it can be concluded that ENSO, IOD, and wheat yield in
Brazil have a weak correlation. This can happen because in the process of wheat production
of Brazil it is not only influenced by ENSO and IOD, but there are factors such as soil
fertility, fertilizers, etc. There is anomaly between wheat production and imports from

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Brazil. This can happen because the need for wheat in Brazil is large enough so that the
government in Brazil countries imports to meet the grain shortages that occur to Brazil.

6. Actknowledgements

The writer is honored to be able to thank Hasanuddin University and the Faculty of
Mathematics and Natural Sciences for geophysical study program as a place for writer to
seek knowledge. Not to forget the writer would like to thank the Food Agricultural
Organization and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that has supported the
data to be studied by the writer. And also thanks to Putri Wulandari, Syafrizal Mandasini,
Nurhidayah Haruna Rio, Muh. Faqih Raihan, and Miftah Khairunnisa who give help the
writer to write this paper.

References

Bushuk, W., and Rasper, V.F. 1994. Wheat: Production, Properties, and Quality. Chapman
and Hall. United Kingdom.

Fu Y, Somers D. 2009. Genome-Wide Reduction of Genetic Diversity in Wheat Breeding

Crop. Sci 49: 161-168.

Nurmala, T. 1998. Serelia Sumber Karbohidrat Utama. Jakarta: Rineka Cipta.

Pomeranz, Y. 1971. Composition and Functionally of Wheat Flour Components. Wheat

Chemistry and Technology. The AACC. Ind., St Paul.

Roder, Mario S. Korzun, Victor. 1998. A Microsatellite Map of Wheat. Journal Genetics
Society of America. France: Institute fur Pflanzengenetik und
Kulturpflanzenforschung (IPK).

Stone, P. 2001. The Effects of Heat Stress on Cereal Yield and Quality in: Basra AS. (Eds),
Crop Responses and Adaptation to Temperature Stress Binghamton. New York: Food
Products Press, page 243-291.