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10,000
Best case (000)
9,000 9,182
(000) Mintel forecast
8,000 (000)
6,894
7,861
Market volume (000)
7,000
Worst case (000)
6,540
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
1,000 95%
90%
00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 70%
Est. 50%
Actual Forecast
UK residents took 6.9 million long-haul holidays in 2013, down 19% against 2008.
Currency
The first half of 2013 saw the Pound slip in value against a number of key long-haul destination
currencies, but the second half of 2013 and start of 2014 has seen the Pound gain strength. In particular,
the Pound has performed well against the South African Rand, Egyptian Pound and Australian Dollar. In
March 2014 British Pound has also strengthened against the Thai Baht. £1 is now worth THB 53 rather
than THB 44 the same time last year.
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Technology
There is likely to be technology revolution onboard airlines as Virgin Atlantic launches both wearable
technology and access to social networks and Virgin Australia launches wireless in-flight entertainment.
Virgin Australia introduces Bring your own device wireless in-flight entertainment
September 2013 saw Virgin Australia introduce a new wireless in-flight entertainment system that
allows passengers to stream in-flight entertainment to their own mobile devices. The system is being
rolled out across Virgin Australia’s domestic and international fleet and can be accessed on Wi-Fi enabled
iPads, iPhones, Android devices and laptops with Microsoft’s Silverlight application framework
technology.
New direct flights from UK to Vietnam has seen a 50% increase in demand for Vietnamese Dong as
reported by UK Post Office (Post Office, Holiday Money Report 2012-13)
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Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by value, years ended 30 September 2012 and 2013
All-inclusive holidays remain the most poplar type of holiday taken by the UK consumer. As
Thailand does not generally offer this product this can be seen as a barrier to growth particularly
in the Family market. However all other holiday types are represented well within Thailand,
particularly beach holidays which continue to be the second largest category.
“Thinking about long-haul holidays, which, if any, of the following statements do you agree?
with?”
As price is clearly the main barrier it can be assumed that given the continuing strengthening of the UK
economy, the reduction in the UK APD and more fuel-efficient planes combined the prospects for the UK
look very strong
1.2 To Thailand
Volume and growth rate of outbound traveler to Thailand (2014-2016). Please specify the
reason to support the tourism forecast to Thailand in 2015.
*UK
2014 867,073 3.65% (January-May, 2014 delivered 7.02% growth)
2015 910,427 5%
2016 965, 053 6%
Economic forecasts for the UK economy are predicting, consistent growth over the next 5 years with the
UK returning to a budget surplus within that period. The postponed arrival of Thai Airways daily A380
service from London Heathrow is due at the end of 2014. It is also understood that Tui are looking to
introduce a second weekly flight over the winter season (November 2015 to April 2016) out of Gatwick
direct to Krabi.
**Ireland
2014 66,699 6% (January-May, 2014 delivered 9.44% growth)
2015 70,701 6%
2016 75,650 7%
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January, February and April 2014 growth from Ireland has been over 18% with only March down 9% due
to a very late Easter.
Number of direct and indirect flight and seat to Thailand in 2014-2016 (please specify
new route or new flight, if any)
UK
Direct, Scheduled
Thai Airways (Double Daily, direct and non-stop London Heathrow to Bangkok)
Thailand’s national carrier now operates a Boeing 747-400 for its day flight and the Airbus A340-
600 for its night flight.
Boeing 747-400
Royal First Class 10
Royal Silk 40
Economy 325
Total Seats 375
Airbus A340-600
Royal First Class 8
Royal Silk 60
Economy 199
Total Seats
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Eva Air (Daily, direct and non-stop from London Heathrow to Bangkok)
In August 2013 Eva Air introduced flat beds on their London route.
Airbus 777-ER
Premium Laurel 38
Evergreen Elite 68
Economy 211
Total Seats 318
British Airways (Daily, direct and non-stop from London Heathrow to Bangkok)
Airbus 777-ER
Club World 48
World Traveller Plus 24
World Traveller 203
Total seats 275
Direct, Charter
Tui (Weekly, direct and non-stop from London Gatwick to Phuket)
Tui introduced the UK’s only charter service from November 2013, which will finish in April 14
and will start again in November 2014. The total capacity is 7,566 and Tui has been running this
flight with a load factor between 95-98%. Initial plans for a second service from Manchester for
2014/2015 are not going ahead but a review is underway to consider 2015/2016 schedules.
Premium Club 47
Economy Club 244
Total Seats 291
Indirect, Scheduled
There are 31 indirect (weekly) scheduled airlines flying from the UK to Thailand so flight
capacity is not an issue for the UK market even in peak season.
Emirates Airlines
Flying from the following 7 UK and Ireland airports via Dubai to Bangkok including an A380, daily
service rom Dubai to Bangkok. From December 2013 they also introduced a daily service to Phuket.
Emirates has announced a second daily flight from Dublin to be introduced in July 2014.
Etihad Airways
Flying from the following 4 UK and Ireland airports via Abu Dhabi to Bangkok and a daily codeshare
service with Air Berlin to Phuket. Etihad have announced their own daily flight to Phuket and second
daily flight from Dublin, which will be introduced in September.
Qatar Airways
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Already operating from London and Manchester, Qatar has announced the introduction of flights from
Edinburgh. From their hub in Doha they fly direct into Bangkok and via Kuala Lumpur into Phuket.
Malaysia Airlines
With their code share agreement with Bangkok Airways, Malaysia Airlines has added welcome additional
flight capacity into Ko Samui.
IRELAND
The two main airlines flying out of Dublin, Emirates and Etihad have both announced they are increasing
their frequency to double daily flights.
Airbus 330
Business Class 240
Economy 22
Airbus 777
First Class 8
Business Class 42
Economy 310
Turkish Airlines and Malaysia Airlines are also particularly active in the Irish market.
Question: How did Thailand’s main cities and resorts perform for you in January?
Both major resorts of Phuket and Ko Samui performed well with Khao Lak still the fastest growing
resort. Cha Am, Hua HIn and Pattaya appear to have been affected along with Bangkok due to the
demonstrations. Chiang Mai also performed well with demand for Chiang Rai a little weaker.
Family Market
In 2013 UK arrivals to Thailand grew by just over 4%. In July and August 2013 UK arrivals to Thailand
grew by 9% and 15% respectively. This growth in the UK summer months appears to have been driven
primarily by the Family Market.
In Kuoni’s 2014 report, ‘The Travel Edit’ the following top ten selling Honeymoon destinations were:
1. Maldives
2. Sri Lanka
3. UAE
4. Thailand
5. Mauritius
6. USA
7. Indonesia
8. Malaysia
9. St Lucia
10. Italy
The top 5 destinations have not changed for the last 3 years. Indonesia (mainly Bali) has risen in
popularity from 11th to 9th to 7th during the same period.
Luxury Market
TAT London has targeted the luxury market with dedicated luxury Thailand brochures with tour
operators Six Star Holidays, Elegant Resorts and Travelbag. From TAT London’s recent survey 45% of
the tour operators who responded reported an increase in average revenue per booking. This reflects the
higher spend customers
Muay Thai
Trayvale, a tour operator specializing in bringing Muay Thai clubs to Thailand have produced their first
dedicated Thailand brochure.
– Bangkok and Cha Am, Hua Hin and Pattaya declined during Bangkok demonstrations
– Chiang Mai and Northern selling much better, although Chiang Rai not growing as quickly
– Student market showing strong growth which is leading to increased average length of stay
-Channels; online – Dedicated retail campaigns in Flight Global approach needed by Thailand
offline, retailers, Centre and STA Travel shops. to create brand campaigns on sites
wholesalers (quality, Dedicated brochures targeting such as Expedia, Booking.com and
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-Image of Thailand and The people of Thailand remain More non Thai workers in major
Thailand tourism tourism’s best asset. resorts damages the smiling and
industry (political World-class hospitality reputation.
stability, safety, hygiene, Regular foreign deaths due to poor
eco-friendly, etc.) health and safety in Thailand remain
a problem.
Capability of tourism Quality of tour guides and hotel Taxi drivers over charging and
personnel (guides, personnel remains very good although Refusing to use metres continues to
hoteliers, drivers, etc.) some issues in budget hotels with be a major issue for visitors to
Bangkok and Phuket
standard of English speaking
Thailand’s The communication management of The introduction of martial law
crises/negative issues the Bangkok protests were well followed by the military coup and
(political unrest /safety handled and helped keep demand the introduction of a curfew does
issue/environmental stable from the UK and Ireland threaten short term bookings although
issue) markets. cancellations have been minimal.
Others..
2.2 Opportunities and Threats in the market that influencing to Thailand Tourism:
Macro-environments Opportunities Threats
Political environment UK and Ireland political situations Scotland is voting on whether to
(legislation – regulation; remain stable with the general election in leave the UK and become an
taxation, Social Unrest the UK not due until June 2015 independent state. This will take
etc.) place on 18 September.
Economic environment All the UK economic indicators are Uncertain impact of possible Scottish
(exchange rates, fuel positive with low interest rates and Independence and any trading bans
price, unemployment, inflation, and falling unemployment, and imposed by or on Russia due to
inflation, etc.) national debt. Growth in GDP Ukraine crisis.
is the highest in Europe. Increase in UK interest rates and cost
of mortgages may result in less
disposable consumer spending.
Social/Cultural Ageing population remains a key Aging population will in the longer
environment (population factor in the UK and Ireland with over term put a strain on the working
age structure, cultural 1/3 of the population of both countries Population.
over 50 years old. 2013 showed first
values, demography,
growth in long-haul holiday since 2008.
holiday-taking habits, Market forecast to grow over the next 5
social concerns, tourist years.
behavior, etc.)
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Technological Introduction of Google glasses and smart Connectivity within hotels is now
environment (internet watches from companies like Samsung very important and free Wi-Fi a
usage, social networking will hit the market this year. How will major factor in choosing where
/media usage, smart customers access and use this ‘wearable people stay. Charging for this
phone user, etc.) technology’? service is more unacceptable.
Natural environment Consistently bad weather in the UK and With the UK experiencing the worst
(climate changes, etc.) Ireland over the last 18 months flooding in the country’s history
means more people wanting to get concerns over climate change and
away to warmer climates
environmental issues have had more
attention and may have more impact
on choice of holidays.
Accessibility to In Ireland both Etihad and Emirates have Significant growth of other source
Thailand (availability, announced the introduction of double markets such as China and Russia
capacity etc.) daily services from Dublin. Etihad has may impact availability of airline
also launched new daily service in to slots and hotel capacity in the more
Phuket and Qatar from Edinburgh. Thai popular beach resorts
Airways still plans to launch daily 380
service from Heathrow
Hi-End market:
Segments Competitors Thailand / TAT’s Strengths What to be improved in
Thailand to serve these
segments
Wedding and USA, Hawaii, Caribbean, Diversity of Experience
Honeymoon Indian Ocean, South Quality of beaches Quicker legal process in
Africa, Mexico, Italy, Quality of spa Bangkok
Dubai Quality of Hotel versus
Price
Luxury Indian Ocean, Caribbean, Fast growth of luxury,
Europe, Dubai, China, boutique, designer hotels No obvious weaknesses
Africa Affordable luxury
Pool Villas
Remote islands
2. Specify new destinations that you plan to promote or possible to promote and who is your target
group.
1. Does the current political unrest in Thailand affect your market? (Please ⁄ in the box)
Yes
2. If yes, please rate the level of political impact in your market. (Please ⁄ in the box)
Medium
Reasons;
The military coup and more the introduction of a curfew will undoubtedly have a short term
impact on bookings from the UK and Ireland
3. Do you have any plans to cope with the current political situation in Thailand? and how?
TAT London has used all its Partners on Demand budget. However any other budget, which has
not been utilized could be diverted to fund a tactical campaign once the political situation is
resolved.
4. After the political issue finished, how long your market will be recovered? and how?
Historically both the UK and Ireland markets will be the very first to recover and there is no
reason to believe that this will again be the case.
1.1 The First timers: Marketing activities will be more expanded to minor cities of the UK for
both consumers and trades. The target segment will place on Holistic and Tech savvy
travellers by offering them Thailand’s perceptions of Value for money, Culture, and
adventure. In addition, GAP year students are set in priority to promote more first visits to
Thailand.
2. For Irish market, the marketing activities will be more condensed in terms of cooperation and
being partner with tour operators and airlines to expand potential market size under the positive
circumstance namely, the announcement of two Middle East airlines to double daily flights from
Dublin.