How does it work?

The Montreal Protocol is one of the most successful and effective environmental treaties ever
negotiated and implemented. No single factor led to its success. But if an overarching reason is
needed, look no further than the unprecedented level of cooperation and commitment shown by
the international community.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer aimed to ban the global
production and use of ozone-damaging chemicals including CFCs, HCFCs and halon. From the
start, negotiation relied heavily on leadership and innovative approaches. Much negotiation was
held in small, informal groups. This enabled a genuine exchange of views and the opportunity to
take some issues on trust, such as the subsequent development of the Multilateral Fund. The
people negotiating the treaty also included scientists, which lent credibility.
The science was not definite at the time, so it was a credit to the negotiators that they
developed a highly flexible instrument which could increase or decrease controls as the science
became clearer. It was only after the initial framework was negotiated that the science became
firmer: early conclusions about the extent of ozone depletion turned out to be significantly
under-estimated.
This flexibility meant the protocol could be amended to include stricter controls: more ozone-
depleting substances added to the control list and total phase-out, rather than partial phase-out,
called for. Starting out modestly also encouraged a greater confidence in the process.
One element that encouraged countries to ratify the Montreal Protocol was the trade provisions.
These limited signatories to trade only with other signatories. Once the main producing
countries signed up, it was only a matter of time before all countries had to sign up or risk not
having access to increasingly limited supplies of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances
(ODS).
During the protocol’s negotiation, principles now routinely applied to the development of
international agreements were first given a voice. Chief among these was the idea of taking
action when the science was not yet conclusive. This forms the basis of the “precautionary
principle”, later enshrined in Principle 15 of the 1992 Rio Declaration. And the concept of
common, but differentiated, responsibility took root in the Montreal Protocol when developing
countries were given longer to phase-out ODS.
The implementation of the Montreal Protocol has been highly successful for a number of
reasons. The chemicals and sectors (refrigeration, primarily) involved are clearly articulated.
This let governments prioritise the main sectors early.
The Montreal Protocol also provided a stable framework that allowed industry to plan long-term
research and innovation. It was a happy coincidence that there were benefits for industry of
moving away from ODS. CFCs were old technology and well out of patent. Transitioning to
newer, reasonably priced formulations with lower- or no-ozone depleting potential benefited the
environment and industry.
To their credit, chemicals companies have kept innovating. They are now producing chemicals
with no ozone depleting potential and with lower global warming potential as well, for use in the
refrigeration and air conditioning sectors.
Another feature of the protocol has been the expert, independent Technology and Economic
Assessment Panel (and its predecessors). These have helped signatories reach solid and
timely decisions on often-complex matters. They have given countries confidence to start their
transition.
The Multilateral Fund has been another reason for the protocol’s success. It provides
incremental funding for developing countries to help them meet their compliance targets.
Significantly, it has also provided institutional support. This helps countries build capacity within
their governments to implement phase-out activities and establish regional networks so they can
share experiences and learn from each other.
A final reason for the protocol’s successful implementation has been its compliance procedure.
This was designed from the outset as a non-punitive procedure. It prioritised helping wayward
countries back into compliance. Developing countries work with a UN agency to prepare an
action plan to get themselves back into compliance. If necessary, resources from the Multilateral
Fund are available for some short-term projects. It is telling that all 142 developing countries
were able to meet the 100% phase-out mark for CFCs, halons and other ODS in 2010.
Australian government and industry’s shared commitment to protecting the ozone layer has
been pivotal in our success at meeting our protocol obligations. Australia, and the ozone layer,
have also benefited from the dedication and expertise of many individuals from our scientific
and technical organisations, industry and from government.
The Montreal Protocol is a remarkable instrument. It broke new ground in its negotiation and in
its construction. It is ratified or accepted by all 197 UN member states, a world first for any treaty
and highlighting the strong global commitment to this treaty.
Most importantly it is doing its job well. The ozone layer is expected to return to 1980 levels
between 2045 and 2060 as long as all countries continue to meet their obligations and phase
out the last ozone-depleting substances in the next few years.
Phasing out ozone-depleting substances has also benefited the environment more broadly, as
many ozone-depleting substances also have high global warming potential. It is a credit to
governments, industry, environment groups, science and technical experts that such an
instrument is even in existence and doing such a great job.
PROGRESS
The ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050 but the Protocol has two major pieces of
unfinished business. Some countries in the developing world haven’t yet phased out ozone-
damaging chemicals like R-22, a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) found in many refrigeration
and air conditioning systems. They’ll require financial support to do so, which the Protocol
provides under its Multilateral Fund.
This funding is crucial to help poor countries not only eliminate the last ozone-damaging
chemicals but also to leapfrog cheap replacement chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
While HFCs are safe for ozone, they are a powerful greenhouse gas, a thousand times worse
than CO2. In 2016, after nearly ten years of negotiations, more than 150 countries agreed to
reduce their use by 85 percent in the coming decades.The use of HFCs for air conditioning and
refrigeration is growing at a fast pace in developing countries, particularly China and India.
That’s in part because climate change is producing more and longer deadly heat waves and
driving up summer temperatures.This HFC phase down is known as the Kigali Amendment to
the Protocol and would have a big impact on climate change, cutting global warming up to 0.9
degrees F (0.5 degrees Celsius) by the end of the century, according to the UNEP.

Kyoto Protocol and its Progress

What is the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement between industrialized nations to lower
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is named after Kyoto, Japan where the agreement was
drawn up in 1997 at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty which extends the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, based on the scientific consensus that (part one) global warming is occurring
and (part two) it is extremely likely that human-made CO2 emissions have predominantly caused
it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into
force on 16 February 2005. There are currently 192 parties (Canada withdrew from the protocol,
effective December 2012) to the Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to reduce the onset of global
warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Article 2). The Kyoto
Protocol applies to the six greenhouse gases listed in Annex A: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane
(CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and Sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6).

Progress
At the 18th Conference of the Parties (COP18), held in Doha, Qatar, in 2012, delegates agreed
to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020. They also reaffirmed their pledge from COP17, which
had been held in Durban, South Africa, in 2011, to create a new, comprehensive, legally binding
climate treaty by 2015 that would require greenhouse-gas-producing countries—including major
carbon emitters not abiding by the Kyoto Protocol (such as China, India, and the United States)
—to limit and reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The new
treaty, planned for implementation in 2020, would fully replace the Kyoto Protocol.
After a series of conferences mired in disagreements, delegates at the COP21, held in Paris,
France, in 2015, signed a global but nonbinding agreement to limit the increase of the world’s
average temperature to no more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above preindustrial levels while at the same
time striving to keep this increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above preindustrial levels. The landmark
accord, signed by all 196 signatories of the UNFCCC, effectively replaced the Kyoto Protocol. It
also mandated a progress review every five years and the development of a fund containing
$100 billion by 2020—which would be replenished annually—to help developing countries adopt
non-greenhouse-gas-producing technologies.
Under Kyoto, industrialised nations pledged to cut their yearly emissions of carbon, as
measured in six greenhouse gases, by varying amounts, averaging 5.2%, by 2012 as compared
to 1990. That equates to a 29% cut in the values that would have otherwise occurred. However,
the protocol didn't become international law until more than halfway through the 1990–2012
period. By that point, global emissions had risen substantially. Some countries and regions,
including the European Union, were on track by 2011 to meet or exceed their Kyoto goals, but
other large nations were falling woefully short. And the two biggest emitters of all – the United
States and China – churned out more than enough extra greenhouse gas to erase all the
reductions made by other countries during the Kyoto period. Worldwide, emissions soared by
nearly 40% from 1990 to 2009, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency.
Under the Protocol, only the Annex I Parties have committed themselves to national or joint
reduction targets (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives"
(QELRO) – Article 4.1).Parties to the Kyoto Protocol not listed in Annex I of the Convention (the
non-Annex I Parties) are mostly low-income developing countries, and may participate in the
Kyoto Protocol through the Clean Development Mechanism.The emissions limitations of Annex I
Parties varies between different Parties. Some Parties have emissions limitations reduce below
the base year level, some have limitations at the base year level (no permitted increase above
the base year level), while others have limitations above the base year level.
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the

United Nations, dedicated to providing the world with an objective, scientific view of climate
change, its natural, political and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options.
IPCC reports cover the "scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to
understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts
and options for adaptation and mitigation." The IPCC does not carry out original research, nor
does it monitor climate or related phenomena itself. Rather, it assesses published literature
including peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources. However, the IPCC can be said to
stimulate research in climate science. Chapters of IPCC reports often close with sections on
limitations and knowledge or research gaps, and the announcement of an IPCC special report
can catalyse research activity in that area.

Assessment reports

The IPCC has published five comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate
science, as well as a number of special reports on particular topics. These reports are prepared
by teams of relevant researchers selected by the Bureau from government nominations. Expert
reviewers from a wide range of governments, IPCC observer organizations and other
organizations are invited at different stages to comment on various aspects of the drafts.
The IPCC published its First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992,
a Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995, a Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, a
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and a Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The
IPCC is currently preparing the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in
2022.
Each assessment report is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II, and III. It is
completed by a synthesis report that integrates the working group contributions and any special
reports produced in that assessment cycle.
Scope and preparation of the reports

The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data. Lead authors of
IPCC reports assess the available information about climate change based on published
sources. According to IPCC guidelines, authors should give priority to peer-reviewed sources.
Authors may refer to non-peer-reviewed sources (the "grey literature"), provided that they are of
sufficient quality. Examples of non-peer-reviewed sources include model results, reports from
government agencies and non-governmental organizations, and industry journals. Each
subsequent IPCC report notes areas where the science has improved since the previous report
and also notes areas where further research is required.

There are generally three stages in the review process:

 Expert review (6–8 weeks)

 Government/expert review
 Government review of:
 Summaries for Policymakers
 Overview Chapters
 Synthesis Report

First assessment report

The IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR) was completed in 1990, and served as the basis of
the UNFCCC.
The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report says they are certain that
emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an additional warming of the
Earth's surface. They calculate with confidence that CO2 has been responsible for over half the
enhanced greenhouse effect. They predict that under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario,
global mean temperature will increase by about 0.3 °C per decade during the [21st] century.
They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the
last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same
magnitude as natural climate variability. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse
effect is not likely for a decade or more.

Supplementary report of 1992

The 1992 supplementary report was an update, requested in the context of the negotiations on
the UNFCCC at the Earth Summit (United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
The major conclusion was that research since 1990 did "not affect our fundamental
understanding of the science of the greenhouse effect and either confirm or do not justify
alteration of the major conclusions of the first IPCC scientific assessment". It noted that transient
(time-dependent) simulations, which had been very preliminary in the FAR, were now improved,
but did not include aerosol or ozone changes.
Second assessment report
Climate Change 1995, the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), was finished in 1996. It is
split into four parts:

 A synthesis to help interpret UNFCCC article 2.

 The Science of Climate Change (WG I)
 Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change (WG II)
 Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (WG III)
Each of the last three parts was completed by a separate Working Group (WG), and each has a
Summary for Policymakers (SPM) that represents a consensus of national representatives. The
SPM of the WG I report contains headings:

1. Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase

2. Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcings
3. Climate has changed over the past century (air temperature has increased by between
0.3 and 0.6 °C since the late 19th century; this estimate has not significantly changed
since the 1990 report).
4. The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
(considerable progress since the 1990 report in distinguishing between natural and
anthropogenic influences on climate, because of: including aerosols; coupled models;
pattern-based studies)
 5. Climate is expected to continue to change in the future (increasing realism of simulations
increases confidence; important uncertainties remain but are taken into account in the
range of model projections)
6. There are still many uncertainties (estimates of future emissions and biogeochemical
cycling; models; instrument data for model testing, assessment of variability, and
detection studies)

Third assessment report

The Third Assessment Report (TAR) was completed in 2001 and consists of four reports,
three of them from its Working Groups:

 Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

 Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
 Working Group III: Mitigation
 Synthesis Report
A number of the TAR's conclusions are given quantitative estimates of how probable it is that
they are correct, e.g., greater than 66% probability of being correct. These are "Bayesian"
probabilities, which are based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.
"Robust findings" of the TAR Synthesis Report include:

 *"Observations show Earth's surface is warming. Globally, 1990s very likely warmest
decade in instrumental record". Atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic (i.e.,
human-emitted) greenhouse gaseshave increased substantially.
 *Since the mid-20th century, most of the observed warming is "likely" (greater than 66%
probability, based on expert judgement) due to human activities.
 Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over
the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000
years.
 "Projected climate change will have beneficial and adverse effects on both
environmental and socio-economic systems, but the larger the changes and the rate of
change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate.
 "Ecosystems and species are vulnerable to climate change and other stresses (as
illustrated by observed impacts of recent regional temperature changes) and some will
be irreversibly damaged or lost.
 "Greenhouse gas emission reduction (mitigation) actions would lessen the pressures on
natural and human systems from climate change.
 "Adaptation [to the effects of climate change] has the potential to reduce adverse effects
of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefits, but will not
prevent all damages. An example of adaptation to climate change is building levees in
response to sea level rise.
 7. Description of the sources/causes of greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gases trap heat and make the planet warmer. Human activities are
responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last
150 years
At the global scale, the key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are:

 Carbon dioxide (CO2): Fossil fuel use is the primary source of CO2. CO2 can also be
emitted from direct human-induced impacts on forestry and other land use, such as
through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. Likewise,
land can also remove CO2 from the atmosphere through reforestation, improvement of
soils, and other activities.
 Methane (CH4): Agricultural activities, waste management, energy use, and biomass
burning all contribute to CH4 emissions.
 Nitrous oxide (N2O): Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source
of N2O emissions. Fossil fuel combustion also generates N2O.
 Fluorinated gases (F-gases): Industrial processes, refrigeration, and the use of a
variety of consumer products contribute to emissions of F-gases, which include
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride
(SF6).

Global Emissions by Economic Sector

Global greenhouse gas emissions can also be broken down by the economic activities that lead
to their production.

 Electricity and Heat Production (25% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions):
The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest
single source of global greenhouse gas emissions.
 Industry (21% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions): Greenhouse gas
emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on site at facilities
for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and
mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption and
emissions from waste management activities. (Note: Emissions from industrial
electricity use are excluded and are instead covered in the Electricity and Heat
Production sector.)
 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (24% of 2010 global greenhouse gas
emissions): Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector come mostly from
agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation. This estimate does not
include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon
in biomass, dead organic matter, and soils, which offset approximately 20% of emissions
from this sector.[2]
 Transportation (14% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions): Greenhouse gas
emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air,
and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy
comes from petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel.
  Buildings (6% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions): Greenhouse gas
emissions from this sector arise from onsite energy generation and burning fuels
for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. (Note: Emissions from electricity use in
buildings are excluded and are instead covered in the Electricity and Heat
Production sector.)
 Other Energy (10% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions): This source of
greenhouse gas emissions refers to all emissions from the Energy sector which are not
directly associated with electricity or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining,
processing, and transportation.

8. Effects of Global Warming

A.Increase in average temperatures and temperature extremes
One of the most immediate and obvious effects of global warming is the increase in
temperatures around the world. The average global temperature has increased by about 1.4
degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) over the past 100 years, according to the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Since record keeping began in 1895, the hottest year on record worldwide was 2016, according
to NOAA and NASA data. That year Earth's surface temperature was 1.78 degrees F (0.99
degrees C) warmer than the average across the entire 20th century. Before 2016, 2015 was the
warmest year on record, globally. And before 2015? Yep, 2014. In fact, 16 of the 17 warmest
years on record have happened since 2001, according to NASA.

B. Ice Melt
One of the most dramatic effects of global warming is the reduction in Arctic sea ice. Sea ice hit
record-low extents in both the fall and winter of 2015 and 2016, meaning that at the time when
the ice is supposed to be at its peak, it was lagging. The melt means there is less thick sea ice
that persists for multiple years. That means less heat is reflected back into the atmosphere by
the shiny surface of the ice and more is absorbed by the comparatively darker ocean, creating a
feedback loop that causes even more melt, according to NASA's Operation IceBridge.

C.Sea levels and ocean acidification

In general, as ice melts, sea levels rise. In 2014, the World Meteorological Organization
reported that sea-level rise accelerated 0.12 inches (3 millimeters) per year on average
worldwide. This is around double the average annual rise of 0.07 in. (1.6 mm) in the 20th
century.
Melting polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, coupled with melting ice sheets and glaciers
across Greenland, North America, South America, Europe and Asia, are expected to raise sea
levels significantly. And humans are mostly to blame: In the IPCC report released on Sept. 27,
2013, climate scientists said they are at least 95 percent certain that humans are to blame for
warming oceans, rapidly melting ice and rising sea levels, changes that have been observed
since the 1950s.

D.Plants and animals

The effects of global warming on the Earth's ecosystems are expected to be profound and
widespread. Many species of plants and animals are already moving their range northward or to
higher altitudes as a result of warming temperatures, according to a report from the National
Academy of Sciences.
"They are not just moving north, they are moving from the equator toward the poles. They are
quite simply following the range of comfortable temperatures, which is migrating to the poles as
the global average temperature warms," Werne said. Ultimately, he said, this becomes a
problem when the rate of climate change velocity (how fast a region changes put into a spatial
term) is faster than the rate that many organisms can migrate. Because of this, many animals
may not be able to compete in the new climate regime and may go extinct.

E.Social effects
As dramatic as the effects of climate change are expected to be on the natural world, the
projected changes to human society may be even more devastating.
Agricultural systems will likely be dealt a crippling blow. Though growing seasons in some areas
will expand, the combined impacts of drought, severe weather, lack of accumulated snowmelt,
greater number and diversity of pests, lower groundwater tables and a loss of arable land could
cause severe crop failures and livestock shortages worldwide.