ukompromiso paeqroba: ruseTi, dasavleTi da

ukrainis brZola gadarCenisTvis

daviT bataSvili

117
eqspertis azri
 ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ
GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

eqspertis azri

daviT bataSvili

ukompromiso paeqroba: ruseTi, dasavleTi da ukrainis

brZola gadarCenisTvis

117

2019
 publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis
saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi
gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da
SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis
gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi,
maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli
mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes
saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis
fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2019 weli

ISSN 1512-4835
ISBN 978-9941-8-1003-9
 ruseTsa da ukrainas Soris mimdinare konfliqti erT-
erTi gadamwyveti procesia dRevandel saerTaSoriso urTi­
erTobebSi. 2014 wlis ukrainis krizisma, saqarTveloSi 2008
wels momxdar rusul agresiasTan erTad, daadastura krem-
lis midrekileba saerTaSoriso sazRvrebis darRvevisadmi.
Tumca, kidev ufro mniSvnelovania is faqti, rom brZola
ukrainis bedisTvis araa dasrulebuli. metic, is, savarau-
dod, jer gadamwyvet fazaSic ar Sesula. 2019 wlis ianvris
mdgomareobiT, es brZola ara mxolod grZeldeba, aramed mo-
mavalSi SesaZlo mkveTri eskalaciis niSnebsac Seicavs. aseTi
eskalaciis Sedegebi, rogorc evropuli usafrTxoebisTvis,
ise ufro zogadad, saerTaSoriso sistemisTvis, Zalian se-
riozuli iqneboda.
ukraina aris imperiis aRdgenis amJamindeli rusuli
mcdelobis ZiriTadi brZolis veli. moskovs ar SeuZlia miaR-
wios Tavis farTo geopolitikur miznebs ukrainaSi dasaxuli
amocanebis Sesrulebis gareSe. xolo Tuki is am amocanebs
gadaWris, es putinis ruseTs Tan gaaZlierebs da Tan gaaTama-
mebs, raTa Seasrulos programis danarCeni nawilebic, iqneba
es sxva mezoblebzec dominireba Tu globalur sakiTxebSi
kidev ufro aqtiurad Careva.
am ambiciuri miznebidan ukandaxevisa putinis ruseTs
araferi etyoba. amasTan, ukrainam ukve moaxdina imis demon-
strireba, rom ruseTi mas ver daimorCilebs, Tu mis suvereni­
tets kritikul zians ar miayenebs. amave dros, ukrainam isic
aCvena, rom mas ZaluZs Zlieri winaaRmdegoba gauwios amgvari
zianis miyenebis rusul mcdelobebs. ulmoblad dapirispi­
rebuli erovnuli miznebisa da SesaZleblobebis es dinamika
eskalaciis uzarmazar potencials Seicavs, xolo donbasSi
mimdinare omi da ukrainis teritoriebis rusuli okupacia
warmoadgens konkretul sivrces, sadac aseTi eskalacia SeiZ­
leba daiwyos nebismier wuTs _ am frazis pirdapiri gagebiT.

sadezinformacio Setevis nimuSi

2018 wlis 25 noembers msofliom miiRo Sexseneba ru-

seT-ukrainis konfliqtis Sesaxeb, rodesac ruseTis fsb-is
gemebi Tavs daesxnen ukrainis samxedro flotis sam xomalds,
romlebic cdilobdnen qerCis srutis gavlas. rusebma

3
 ukrainelebs cecxli gauxsnes, Semdeg ki abordaJiT Seipyres
maTi gemebi, Tavad mezRvaurebi ki daatyveves. Tavdasxma saer-
TaSoriso wylebSi moxda.1
am movlenaTa mniSvneloba gascda uSualod qerCis
srutes, radganac mas mohyva rusuli propagandis agresiuli
da potenciurad Zalian saxifaTo Seteva. 2018 wlis manZilze
ruseTis sadezinformacio manqana amuSavebda azovis zRvis
Temas,2 magram 25 noembris incidentis Semdeg misma propagan-
dam axleburi forma da tempi SeiZina. qvemoT naCvenebia am
kampaniis (SesaZloa, arasruli) monaxazi:
• 2018 wlis 26 noemberi _ ruseTis federaciis mudmivi war-
momadgeneli evropis uSiSroebisa da TanamSromlobis or-
ganizaciaSi (euTo) aleqsandre lukaSeviCi euTos mudmivi
sabWos specialur sxdomaze Semdegs acxadebs: „gaCnda in-
formacia, rom ukrainis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi amzadeben
provokacias, qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebiTa da ucxouri
specsamsaxurebis CarTulobiT“.3
• 30 noemberi _ ruseTis marionetuli „doneckis saxalxo
respublikis“ (dnr) warmomadgeneli acxadebs, rom 2018
wlis dekemberSi ukraina gegmavs mariupolis mimarTule-
baze Setevis dawyebas.4
• 5 dekemberi _ presisTvis gamarTuli brifingis dros ru-
seTis sagareo saqmeTa saministros warmomadgeneli maria
zaxarova kievs brals sdebs „donbasSi morigi provokaciis
organizebisa“ da qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebis gegmebSi.
zaxarova cdilobs gazardos am braldebis oficialuri
elferi Semdegi gancxadebiT: „aseTi qmedebebi SeiZleba
gaxdes mSvidobian mosaxleobaSi msxverplis mizezi da ewi-
naaRmdegeba ara mxolod minskis SeTanxmebebs, aramed aseve
saerTaSoriso xelSekrulebebs masobrivi ganadgurebis
iaraRis akrZalvisa da SezRudvis Sesaxeb“.5
• 9 dekemberi _ rusuli media aSuqebs dnr-is gancxadebebs,
rom ukrainelebma SesaZloa gamoiyenon Tavisi upiloto
safreni aparatebi qalaq gorlovkasTan, raTa moawyon pro-
vokacia qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebiT da Semdeg daabralon
is dnr-s, britaneli da ukraineli samxedro specialiste-
bis mier damzadebuli yalbi videoebis meSveobiT.6

4
• 10 dekemberi _ dnr-is kidev erTi braldeba, romelsac
farTod aSuqebs rusuli media. ruseTis marionetebis
warmomadgeneli acxadebs, rom momdevno ramdenime dRis
manZilze ukrainelebi apireben mariupolSi qimiuri pro-
vokaciis mowyobas, Semdeg ki azovis zRvis mimdebare te­
ri­­toriaze Setevaze gadasvlas.7
• 11 dekemberi _ ruseTis saelCo aSS-Si gamoscems presre­
lizs, romelSic acxadebs: „Cven vaSingtons movuwodebT
ar daxuWos Tvali donbasSi kontaqtis xazze ukrainu-
li SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da radikaluri memarjvene
jgufebis aqtiur mzadebaze, risi Sedegic SeiZleba sisx-
liani scenari iyos“.8
• 11 dekemberi _ ukrainuli mediis informaciiT, ruseTis
mier okupirebuli luganskis macxovreblebi amboben,
rom adgilobrivi media avrcelebs xmebs mosalodneli
ukrainuli qimiuri Setevis Sesaxeb.9
• 13 dekemberi _ ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa saministros war-
momadgeneli maria zaxarova acxadebs: „arsebuli informa-
ciis Tanaxmad, uaxloes dReebSi kievi apirebs kontaqtis
xazze SeiaraRebuli provokaciis mowyobas, raTa... gana­
xorcielos swrafi Seteva mariupolis mimarTulebaze,
doneckis kontrolis qveS arsebuli priazovies* terito-
riebis dasapyrobad da ruseTis sazRvarze gasasvlelad“.10
• 13 dekemberi _ ruseTis federaciis mudmivi warmomadgene-
li euToSi aleqsandre lukaSeviCi acxadebs, rom „kievSi
mzad arian Semdgomi agresiuli nabijebisTvis samxedro
isteriis asagoreblad saarCevno kampaniis win [2019 wlis
31 marts daniSnuli ukrainuli saprezidento arCevnebis­
Tvis]“. lukaSeviCi aseve ambobs, rom „aris imis safrTxe,
rom ukraina ar Semoifargleba axlandeli etapiT da api­
rebs miiRos maqsimaluri dividendebi kontaqtis xazze es-
kalaciis gziT“.11
• 14 dekemberi _ ukrainuli mediis informaciiT, ruse-
Tis marionetebi donbasSi avrceleben dezinformacias,
TiTqos ukrainuli SeiaraRebuli Zalebi amzadeben „gor-
lovkis dabombvas qimiuri bombebiT“.12

* priazovie _ regioni azovis zRvis CrdiloeT sanapiros gaswvriv.

5
 • 17 dekemberi _ ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri sergei
lavrovi acxadebs: „dekembris bolo dekadaSi [mesamedSi]
poroSenko gegmavs SeiaraRebul provokacias ruseTis
federaciasTan sazRvarze, yirimTan sazRvarze“.13
• 17 dekemberi _ dnr acxadebs, rom 24-25 dekembers
ukrainelebi Setevis dawyebas apireben.14
• 20 dekemberi _ ruseTis federaciis mudmivi warmomad-
geneli euToSi aleqsandre lukaSeviCi euTos mudmivi sab-
Wos sxdomaze acxadebs, rom mariupolis da gorlovkis
maxloblad ukrainelebs koncentrirebuli hyavT didi Za-
lebi, „romlebic nebismier momentSi SeiZleba iqnes gamo­
ye­nebuli SeteviTi operaciebis gansaxorcieleblad“.
lukaSeviCi aseve ambobs, rom doneckeli „warmomadgen-
lebis“ informaciiT, „donbasSi masStaburi sabrZolo
moq­medebebis ganaxlebis sababad SeiZleba iyos gamoyene­
bu­li diversia erT-erT msxvil industriul sawarmoze
kontaqtis xazis maxloblad“.15
• 24 dekemberi _ ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa saministros war-
momadgeneli maria zaxarova acxadebs: „ver gamovricxavT,
rom uaxloes dReebSi ukrainis SeiaraRebulma Zalebma
SeiZleba srulmasStabiani sabrZolo moqmedebebi daiw­
yon“.
zaxarova aseve gamoTqvams varauds, rom „kievelma strate­
gebma zedmiwevniT Seiswavles da mzad arian praqtikaSi
gamoiyenon TavianTi ucxoeli kuratorebis gamocdileba
masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gamoyenebiT provoka-
ciebis mowyobis TvalsazrisiT“.16
• 25 dekemberi _ dnr acxadebs, rom ukrainis kontrolis
qveS arsebul teritoriaze qalaq doneckidan dasavleTiT
Casulia matarebeli „Zliermoqmedi qimiuri Sxamiani niv-
TierebiT“. amave gancxadebaSi naTqvamia, rom iqve arian
ukraineli samxedroebi da rom „imave raionSi imyofebian
diversiebis mowyobis mcodne britanuli da amerikuli
specsamsaxurebis specialistebi“.17
rogorc naCvenebia zemoT, qerCis srutis incidentis
Semdgomi erTi Tvis manZilze ruseTis oficialuri warmo-
madgenlebi da maTi donbaseli marionetebi Tanmimdevru-

6
lad da daJinebiT aJRerebdnen or gzavnils: axlo momavalSi
ukraina apirebs axali samxedro Setevis dawyebas da am pro-
cesSi raRac saxis qimiur incidents moawyobs.
„qimiuri iaraRis“ scenari rusulma dezinformaciam
cota xnis win siriaSi aamoqmeda. 2018 wlis 24 noembers ruse-
Tis Tavdacvis saministrom ganacxada, rom sirielma meamboxe­
ebma gamoiyenes qimiuri iaraRi (qlorini) qalaq aleposTan
axlos. am gancxadebas mohyva rusuli aviaciis dartymebi
meamboxeTa winaaRmdeg. Tumca, 7 dekembers aSS-is saxelmwifo
departamentma ganacxada, rom ruseTis da asadis reJimis
cnobebi meamboxeTa mier qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebis Sesaxeb
yalbi iyo da rom sinamdvileSi rusebma da sirielebma Tavad
gauSves cremlsadeni gazi. saxelmwifo departamentis war-
momadgenelma Tqva, rom ruseTma da siriam es dezinforma-
cia gamoiyenes, rogorc „idlibSi cecxlis Sewyvetis reJimis
Seryevis SesaZlebloba“.18
ruseTis xelSi amgvari Semtevi sadezinformacio kam-
pania SeiZleba Zalian saxifaTo iyos, radgan mas SeiZleba
mohyves ufro xelSesaxebi agresiuli qmedebebic. ruseTis
mowyobili provokacia, namdvili Tu gamogonili qimiuri ma-
salebis gamoyenebiT, SeiZleba gaxdes sababi ruseTis Seiara-
Rebuli Zalebis pirdapiri da, amjerad, oficialuri Sete-
visTvis ukrainis winaaRmdeg.
Tu gaviTvaliswinebT kremlis Cvevas, gamoiyenos sain-
formacio omi Tavisi samxedro Tu „hibriduli“ operaciebis­
Tvis, da aseve rusuli samxedro Zalebis bolodroindel
zrdas ukrainis sazRvarze, araa gasakviri, rom am propagan-
distulma Setevam ukrainelebSi gaaCina molodini, rom ru-
seTi SeiZleba amzadebdes axal samxedro Setevas maTi qveynis
winaaRmdeg. SesaZloa, mTlad uaxloes momavalSi es molodi-
ni ar gamarTldes. 2019 wlis ianvris mdgomareobiT, donbasSi
samxedro eskalacia ar momxdara. magram ukrainelTa SeS-
foTeba advili gasagebia, radgan msgavsi rusuli propaganda
win uZRoda ruseTis Tavdasxmebs ukrainasa da saqarTveloze
2014 da 2008 wlebSi.
fundamenturi strategiuli realoba, romelic gax-
da am ori saerTaSoriso agresiis mizezi, kvlavac ZalaSia.
moskovs ar miuRwevia ukrainaSi Tavisi miznebisTvis da, Se-
sabamisad, rusul-ukrainuli konfliqtis dinamika kvlav

7
 feTqebadsaSiSi rCeba. TiTqos amasTan dakavSrebiT yovel-
gvari SesaZlo eWvis gasaqarwyleblad, 2019 wlis 15 ianvars
ruseTis uSiSroebis sabWos mdivanma nikolai patruSevma Tqva,
rom ukrainis xelisuflebis axlandeli politikis gagrZele-
bam „SeiZleba xeli Seuwyos ukrainis mier Tavisi saxelmwi-
foebriobis dakargvas“.19

ratom esxmis ruseTi ukrainas _ geopolitikuri logika da

qvecnobieri SiSi

cxadia, rom ruseTi ar apirebs ukrainis „gaSvebas“,

Tundac yirimisa da donbasis okupirebuli nawilis gareSe.
ruseTis amocana, rogorc zogadad, ise konkretulad 2014
wlis dasawyisSi dawyebuli samxedro agresiis konteqstSi,
aris mTlianad ukrainis istoriuli bedis gansazRvra rusu-
li imperiuli proeqtis saWiroebaTa mixedviT.
Tanamedrove ruseTis mTavari strategiuli mizania
yofil sabWoTa qveynebze kontrolis aRdgena raime axali
formiT. 2005 wels gakeTebuli putinis gancxadeba, rom „sab-
WoTa kavSiris daSla iyo saukunis udidesi geopolitikuri
katastrofa“,20 am geopolitikuri usiamovnebis raime saxiT
gamosworebis gegmis gamocxadeba aRmoCnda. putinis mmarTve­
lobis dros ruseTi Tanmimdevrulad muSaobs Tavis yofil
sabWoTa mezoblebze gavlenis gasavrceleblad. am procesSi
is iyenebs sadazvervo, diplomatiuri, ekonomikuri, sainfor-
macio da samxedro berketebis farTo arsenals.
ruseTis am strategiaSi ukrainas gansakuTrebuli ad-
gili ukavia. misi geografiuli mdebareoba ruseTis cent­
raluri teritoriis gaswvriv, misi demografiuli da eko-
nomikuri wona, misi mniSvneloba Sav zRvaze strategiuli
kontrolisTvis _ yvelaferi es xels uwyobs, rom ukraina
iyos rusuli eqspansionizmis prioritetuli samizne. vera­
viTari rusuli imperiuli proeqti ver iqneba WeSmaritad
warmatebuli da sruli, Tuki moskovs ar eqneba ukrainaze
raime formis kontroli an Zlier gavlena mainc. „evrazia“
ruseTis meTaurobiT ver iarsebebs manam, sanam ukraina aris
realurad suverenuli saxelmwifo.
amasTan, mkafiod gancalkevebuli ukrainuli erovnu-
li identoba da ukrainuli eri-saxelmwifo, romelSic Sedis

8
qveynis aRmosavluri da samxreTuli rusulenovani mxareebi,
Tavisi arsebobis faqtiT warmoadgens „rusuli samyaros“
[Русский мир] koncefciis21 uaryofas. es koncefcia ki, evra-
zianistul geopolitikur TeoriebTan erTad, aris erT-er-
Ti ideologiuri berketi, romelsac putinis ruseTi Tavisi
strategiuli ambiciebis mxardasaWerad da gasamarTleblad
iyenebs.
kidev erTi potenciuri problema kremlisTvis aris
imis Sansi, rom momavalSi ukraina SeiZleba warmatebuli
iyos. marTalia, amJamad is iZireba uxarisxo mmarTvelobaSi,
korufciasa da oligarqiul gavlenebSi (Tumca, am yvelafris
miuxedavad, 2014 wlis Semdeg ukrainam SeZlo Tavisi sam­xed­ro
potencialis aRdgena). magram sanam ukraina rCeba erTdrou-
lad suverenuli da demokratiuli qveyana, is inar­Cunebs
Sanss daamarcxos, an Seasustos mainc, es socialur-politi-
kuri sneulebebi. ukrainis zomisa da potencialis gaTvalis­
winebiT, aseT SemTxvevaSi is gaxdeba mimzidveli, dinamikuri
da Zlieri qveyana. ase Tu moxda, kremlis avtoritaruli re-
Jimi miiRebs friad usiamovno demokratiul (da, Tanac, post-
revoluciur) warmatebul magaliTs, moskovidan mxolod 450
kilometrSi. is, rom rusebi ukrainelebs axlo eTnikur da
kulturul naTesavebad miiCneven, am viTarebas kremlis bi-
nadrebisTvis mxolod gaauaresebda.
SesaZloa, arsebobs ukrainuli eri-saxelmwifos ideis
mimarT ruseTis mtrobis motivaciis kidev erTi, ufro Rrma,
done.
rogorc rusulenovani adamiani, internetis rusule-
novan segments Tvals im droidan vadevneb, rodesac daviw­
ye globaluri qselis gamoyeneba. iq yovelTvis midioda
erTi didi da uwyveti Cxubi rusebsa da ukrainelebs Soris.
2014 wels omis dawyebamde, am Cxubis umTavresi sagani iyo
ukrainuli identoba. ruseTis bevri moqalaqe mravali welia
gamoxatavs ukidures siZulvils ukrainelTa politikuri da
kulturuli TviTmyofadobis ideis mimarT. amgvar agresias
aseve iReben saqarTvelo, baltiis sami saxelmwifo da sxvebi,
magram ruseTis bevri moqalaqis zizRs ukrainuli erovnuli
proeqtisadmi veraferi Seedreba.
SesaZloa, am fenomenis erT-erTi mizezi ukrainuli
da rusuli saxelmwifoebriobis saerTo fesvebSia. orive es

9
 qveyana Tavis istoriul memkvidreobas iTvlis Sua sauku-
neebis saxelmwifodan saxelad kievis rusi,** romelic IX-XII
saukuneebSi arsebobda da romlis dedaqalaqic iyo kievi. is-
toriis rusuli versia, oficialuric da saxalxoc, rusuli
saxelmwifos sawyis wertils xedavs ara XV saukuneSi, rode-
sac moskovma gaaerTiana dRevandeli ruseTis teritoriaze
arsebuli samTavroebi, aramed kievis rusis periodSi. arsebi-
Tad, moskovma moaxdina kievis rusis memkvidreobis monopo-
lizeba sakuTari erovnuli miTisTvis. ukrainelTa wina mcde­
lobebi, SeeqmnaT sakuTari saxelmwifo, ruseTma gaanadgura
XVIII saukuneSi da 1920 wels. amitom warsulSi maT ar hqoniaT
Sansi, rom am miTisTvis seriozuli konkurencia gaewiaT.
1991 wels ukrainis damoukideblobis aRdgenis Sem-
deg viTareba Seicvala. Tanamedrove ukraina, misi Zlieri
erovnuli identobiT, ganasaxierebs am saukunovani monop-
oliis dasasruls. ufro metic, is aris kievis rusis alter-
natiuli Tanamedrove „inkarnacia“, Tanac ruseTisgan gan-
sxvavebuli politikuri kulturiT. ruseTi iyo despoturi
saxelmwifo TiTqmis mTeli Tavisi istoriis manZilze. ase iyo
mos­­ko­vis didi mTavrebis da mefeebis dros, ase iyo zedapir-
ulad gaTanamedrovebul ruseTis imperiaSi, ase iyo sabWoTa
kavSirSi da ase aris dResac. gamonaklisebi am wesSi, marTa-
lia, yofila, magram Zalian xanmokle.
ukrainuli politikuri kultura yovelTvis gansxvave-
buli iyo. gviandeli Sua saukuneebidan, ukrainul miwebs, rom-
lebic polonur da litvur saxelmwifoebSi Sedioda, hqonda
evropuli feodalizmis kultura da ara moskovis despotu-
ri monarqiisa. ukrainul qalaqebs hqondaT Sida avtonomia,
e.w. magdeburgis samarTlis mixedviT, rusuli qalaqebisgan
gansxvavebiT. adreuli modernis (e.w. axali istoriis) xanaSi
ukrainaSi warmoiSva kazakTa socialuri kultura, romelsac
individualuri Tavisuflebis Rirebulebebi axasiaTebda.
ukrainaSi kazakebi iyvnen ara mxolod periferiuli teri-
** ukrainuli, rusuli, belarusuli, inglisuri da sxva enebisgan gansx-
vavebiT, qarTulad damkvidrda saxelwodeba „kievis ruseTi“. es termini
arazustad mimaCnia - sxva enebs romc ar SevexoT, rusuladac ki Русь da
Россия aris ori sxvadasxva da gansxvavebuli mniSvnelobis mqone sityva.
qarTulad „ruseTi“ gamoiyeneba swored sityva Россия-s aRsaniSnad da
amitom misive gamoyeneba Русь-is Targmanad aris damkvidrebuli uzus-
toba. winamdebare statiaSi viyeneb termins „kievis rusi“.

10
toriebis mosaxleni, rogorc es ruseTSi iyo, aramed cent­
ralur politikur rolsac TamaSobdnen.
ruseTisa da ukrainis sxvadasxva istoriuli gzebis
Sedegebi dRemde gansazRvraven am ori qveynis gansxvavebul
Sidapolitikur realobas. kremlis reJimisTvis da rusuli
sazogadoebis im nawilisTvis, romelic mxars uWers maTi
saxelmwifos imperiul da avtoritarul formas, miuRebe-
lia politikuri kulturis amgvarad gansxvavebuli modeli
im qveyanaSi, romelsac aqvs ruseTTan saerTo istoriuli da
eTnikuri Ziri da romelic mdebareobs ruseTis centraluri
nawilis gverdiT.22

politikuri gavlenidan desuverenizaciis mcdelobamde _

ukrainaSi ruseTis amocanebis transformacia

ruseTis qmedebebi ukrainis mimarT toveben Zlier

STabeWdilebas, rom kremlisTvis misaRebia ukrainis arsebo-
bis mxolod ori forma. an mTeli ukraina unda iyos ruse-
Tis Zlieri politikuri gavlenis qveS, an is unda daiSalos
nawilebad romelTagan erTze moskovi mtkice kontrols ga-
naxorcielebs, xolo meore iqneba uZlur, qaosur da Ratak
mdgomareobaSi, ris Sedegadac is veRar Seaferxebs rusul
imperiul ambiciebs. ukrainis aRmosavluri da samxreTuli
regionebi, romelTa okupacias meore varianti gulisxmobs,
aris ukrainis swored is nawili, romelsac aqvs qveynis in-
dustriuli potencialis didi wili da Sav zRvaze gasasv-
leli.
sanam ruseTi wamoiwyebda ukrainis nawilebad damsx-
vrevis pirdapir mcdelobas, man scada pirveli variantis
ganxorcieleba. is politikuri krizisi, romelic dasrulda
evromaidanis revoluciiT, daiwyo mas Semdeg, rac ukrainis
prezidentma viqtor ianukoviCma bolo momentSi gadawyvita
ar moewera xeli evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebisTvis.
es SeTanxmeba 2013 wlis noemberSi unda gaformebuliyo. nacv-
lad ki, ianukoviCis xelisuflebam gamarTa Sexvedrebi ruse-
Tis xelmZRvanelobasTan, rasac mohyva misi gancxadeba, rom
asocirebis SeTanxmebas xeli aRar moewereboda „erovnuli
interesebidan gamomdinare“, da rom sanacvlod is moskovTan
„ganaaxlebda dialogs“ savaWro da ekonomikur sakiTxebze.23

11
 ukrainis politikuri kursis es radikaluri cvli-
leba, romelic asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmoweramde bolo
momentSi moxda, iyo ianukoviCis xelisuflebaze mZlavri ru-
suli zewolis24 Sedegi. is farTod aRiqves moskovis strate-
giul gamarjvebad. 2013 wlis 21 noembers SvedeTis sagareo
saqmeTa ministrma karl bildtma dawera: „ukrainis mTavroba
moulodnelad uxris qeds kremls. rogorc Cans, sastiki ze-
wolis politika muSaobs“.25
ukrainulma sazogadoebam ianukoviCis xelisuflebis
es nabiji sworedac kremlis winaSe qedis moxrad aRiqva.
ukrainelebma masSi dainaxes qveynis strategiuli orientaci-
is Secvla ruseTisa da misi geopolitikur proeqtis sasargeb­
lod. amgvari cvlileba aRmoCnda SeuZlebeli im pirobebSi,
romelic 2013 wlis mdgomareobiT ukrainul sazogadoebaSi
arsebobda. es sazogadoeba miCveuli iyo korufciasa da cud
mmarTvelobas ianukoviCis dros, magram ukrainis wayvanam ru-
suli gavlenis sferos mimarTulebiT Selaxa Zalian bevri
ukrainelis ZiriTadi politikuri, kulturuli da istori-
uli identoba. maT TvalSi es iyo wiTeli xazis miRma.
ukrainaSi maleve daiwyo saprotesto aqciebi. ianukovi­
Cis xelisuflebis SecdomaTa mTeli seriis Semdeg es aqciebi
gadaizarda revoluciaSi, romelmac daasrula ianukoviCis
mmarTveloba. SetakebebSi protestis asze meti monawile
daiRupa.26 2014 wlis 20 Tebervals reJimis warmomadgenlebma,
sabrZolo SeiaraRebis gamoyenebiT, cecxli gauxsnes protes-
tis metwilad uiaraRo monawileebs, ris Sedegadac aTeulo-
biT adamiani daiRupa.27 22 TebervlisTvis ianukoviCma kievi
datova. Semdeg ki, kremlis daxmarebiT,28 ruseTSi gaiqca.
ukrainelebs, romlebic 2014 wlis 20 Tebervals ar
SeuSindnen tyviebs, romlebmac gadaitanes mravali fizikuri
brZola reJimis warmomadgenlebTan 2013-2014 wlebis zamTris
ganmavlobaSi, da romlebmac uamravi Rame gaatares kievis ga­
yi­nul quCebSi, es yvelaferi ar gaukeTebiaT qveynis evro-
puli integraciisTvis. maT es gaakeTes imisaTvis, rac maT
TvalSi iyo brZola ukrainis istoriuli bedisTvis. revolu-
ciam naTlad aCvena, rom politikurad SeuZlebelia mTeli
ukrainis Seyvana ruseTis gavlenis sferoSi.
rogorc ki ruseTis xelmZRvanelobisTvis es realoba
cxadi gaxda, man wamoiwyo ukrainis nawilebad gaxleCvis mcde­

12
loba. ianukoviCis Camogdebis momentidanve29 moskovma daiwyo
agresia ukrainis winaaRmdeg yirimSi. 2014 wlis 18 marts man am
naxevarkunZulis aneqsia gamoacxada. yirimis operacias mohyva
ruseTis mcdeloba moewyo „ajanyebebi“ ukrainis aRmosavleT
da samxreT regionebSi, romlebic jamSi qveynis daaxloebiT
naxevars Seadgendnen. donbasis regionis nawilobrivi gamo­
nak­lisis garda, es mcdeloba Cavarda, ukrainuli sazogadoe-
bisa da usafrTxoebis saxelmwifo uwyebebis winaaRmdegobis
Sedegad. savaraudod, erT-erTi gadamwyveti faqtori iyo
kremlis mier ukrainis am nawilebis mosaxleobaSi arsebuli
prorusuli ganwyobebis zedmetad optimisturi Sefaseba.
2014 wlis gazafxulze ruseTis am „hibriduli“ Setevis
marcxis Semdeg moskovs mouwia donbasSi dawyebuli omiT dak-
mayofileba, droebiT mainc. 2019 wlis ianvris mdgomareobiT,
bolo didi samxedro operacia moxda 2015 wlis dasawyisSi
(debalcevos brZola),30 magram miuxedavad e.w. „minski II“ Se-
Tanxmebisa, cecxlis Sewyvetis reJimi donbasSi ar moqmedebs.
srola midis yoveldRe, rasac Sedegad regularulad mos-
devs danakargi orive mxridan. faqtobrivad, donbasSi Cveu-
lebrivi aqtiuri frontis xazia, msxvil operaciebs Soris
SedarebiT „wynari“ periodis dros.

mzardi samxedro safrTxe ukrainisTvis

2014 wels ukrainis daSlis rusuli mcdelobis marcxiT

saqme ar dasrulebula. fundamenturi strategiuli realo-
ba ar Secvlila. ruseTis geopolitikuri ambiciebi kvlavac
sruliad SeuTavsebelia ukrainis erovnul interesebTan da
usafrTxoebasTan. ruseTis mmarTveli reJimi ubralod ver
miaRwevs Tavis strategiul miznebs, Tuki is ukrainas rames
ar mouxerxebs. Sesabamisad, moskovis qmedebebi ukrainis wi-
naaRmdeg grZeldeba.
amave mizeziT, uSedegoa konfliqtis molaparakebebis
gziT mogvarebis evropis mxardaWerili mcdelobebi. uaxloes
momavalSi es viTareba, savaraudod, ver Seicvleba, radgan am-
Jamindel istoriul momentSi kremlis reJimisa da ukrainuli
saxelmwifos interesebi urTierTgamomricxavia.
kremli ukrainis destabilizaciisTvis nebismier SesaZ­
leblobas gamoiyenebs. am mxriv, saxifaTo susti wertilebia

13
 ukrainuli sazogadoebis ukmayofileba qveyanaSi kvlavac ar-
sebuli korufciiT, saSinao politikis arastabiluri mdgo-
mareoba da oligarqTa gavlena, Tumca, amave dros, 2014 wli-
dan mimdinare rusuli agresia ukrainis politikur sxeuls
Riad prorusuli poziciebis winaaRmdeg Zlieri vaqciniT
amaragebs. amasTan, ukrainis usafrTxoebisTvis Zalian serio-
zuli gamowvevaa pirdapiri samxedro safrTxe. Tu kremli ve-
rafriT SeZlebs ukrainaSi Tavisi miznebis miRwevas mxolod
sadazvervo, politikuri da ekonomikuri berketebis gamoye­
nebiT, garkveul momentSi is SeiZleba axal samxedro opera-
ciazec wavides.
2016 wlidan ruseTma ukrainasTan sazRvarze axali
msxvili samxedro SenaerTebis Seqmna daiwyo. im teritoriaze,
sadac adre ruseTs ar hyolia mudmivad bazirebuli samanev-
ro nawilebi, amJamad ukve arsebobs sami axali meqanizebuli
(rogorc rusebi uwodeben, „motomsrolelTa“) divizia, ro-
melic ganawilebulia or axal armias Soris.
am axal diviziebs rusebi arsebuli brigadebis reor-
ganizebisa da gafarToebis gziT qmnian. me-3 meqanizebuli
divizia, romelic bazirebulia boguCarSi (voroneJis olqi)
da valuikiSi (belgorodis olqi), Seiqmna me-9 da 23-e meqa-
nizebuli brigadebis safuZvelze. am mizniT, es ori briga-
da ukrainis sazRvarze volgis regionidan gadaiyvanes. me-9
brigada idga niJni novgorodSi, xolo 23-e _ samaraSi. 150-e
meqanizebuli divizia ganlagebulia rostovis olqis don-
basTan mimdebare nawilSi. is Seiqmna 33-e meqanizebuli sam-
To brigadis safuZvelze, romelic iq dasavleT kavkasiidan
gadaiyvanes. 144-e meqanizebuli diviziis Stabi mdebareobs
smolenskis olqSi, belarusis sazRvarTan axlos, magram misi
ZiriTadi sabrZolo nawilebi bazirebulia mezobel brianskis
olqSi, ukrainis sazRvarze. es divizia Seiqmna 28-e meqanizebu­
li brigadis safuZvelze, romelic manamde uralis regionis
qalaq ekaterinburgSi mdebareobda.31
2016 wels Seqmnili es diviziebi kvlavac izrdeba.
magaliTad, 2018 wlis 1 dekembers ruseTis SeiaraRebulma
Zalebma gamoacxada axali meqanizebuli polkis Seqmna ros-
tovTan axlos, 150-e meqanizebuli diviziis Semadgenloba-
Si.32 amasTan, 2018 wlis 29 oqtombers brianskis olqis qalaq
klincis adgilobriv gazeTSi gamoqveynebulma informaciam

14
gamoavlina 254-e meqanizebuli polkis arseboba.33 es polki
daemata or meqanizebul da erT satanko polks, romlebic
2018 wlis dasawyisis mdgomareobiT ukve Sedioda 144-e meqa-
nizebuli diviziis SemadgenlobaSi.
hipoTetur axal rusul samxedro SetevaSi ukrainis
winaaRmdeg, savaraudod, monawileobas miiRebdnen ruseTis
mraval regionSi bazirebuli samxedro nawilebi. Tumca, amis
miuxedavad, ukrainis sazRvarze mTeli axali diviziebis Seqm-
na mniSvnelovani faqtia. aRsaniSnavia, rom rusuli samxedro
Zalebis amgvari zrda da transformireba xdeba im dros,
roca ruseTs finansuri problemebi aqvs.34 es garemoeba mia­
niS­nebs, rom kremlisTvis es procesi aris prioritetuli. im
pirobebSi, roca ruseTis ambiciuri geopolitikuri miznebi
jerac ar aris miRweuli, misi samxedro Zalebis mier ukrain-
is amgvarad samizneSi amoReba saxifaTo niSania.

WeSmaritad realisturi midgoma rusul-ukrainuli

krizisisadmi

zogi dasavleli avtori, romelic sakuTar Tavs „re-

alistad“ miiCnevs, faqtobrivad ar ganixilavs ukrainas
srulfasovan moTamaSed da Tvlis, rom rusuli agresiis pi-
robebSi mis mxardaWeras azri ara aqvs.35 amJamad dasavleTi
exmareba ukrainas finansurad da, aseve, misi samxedro Za-
lebis wvrTnasa da aRWurvaSi. gansakuTrebiT dadebiT rols,
am TvalsazrisiT, TamaSoben aSS, didi britaneTi da kanada.
aseve Zalian mniSvnelovania ukrainaSi rusuli agresiis gamo
ruseTis winaaRmdeg SemoRebuli sanqciebi. magram dasavleT-
Si arian isinic, vinc faqtobrivad emxroba ukrainis rusuli
safrTxis winaSe mitovebas. aseT azrovnebas, sinamdvileSi,
realizmTan araferi aqvs saerTo.
ukraina gauwevs ruseTs winaaRmdegobas imis miuxeda-
vad, daexmareba mas dasavleTi Tu ara. ar Rirs putinis si-
tyvebis dajereba, TiTqos ukraina aris mxolod teritoria
da ara saxelmwifo.36 mas amisi, albaT, Tavadac aRar sjera.
Tuki odesme sjeroda, es aRmoCnda misi mxridan zedmetad
optimisturi Sexeduleba, rasac friad usiamovno Sedegebi
mohyva 2014 wlis gazafxulze, rodesac kremlis mcdelobam,
Seeqmna ruseTis kontrols daqvemdebarebuli „novorosia“

15
 xarkovidan odesamde, marcxi ganicada, donbasis regionis
erTi nawilis garda.
es rusuli proeqti efuZneboda molodins, rom aRmo­
savleT da samxreT ukrainis moqalaqeTa sakmarisi wili ufro
metad ruseTis erTguli iyo, vidre sakuTari qveynisa. es
molodini fundamenturad mcdari gamodga. miuxedavad bevri
aRmosavleT da samxreT ukrainelis ruseTisadmi marTlac
dadebiTi ganwyobisa, romelic maT hqondaT 2014 wlis da-
sawyisSi, am adamianTa umetesoba ar iyo ukrainis suverenite-
tis mteri. maT ar surdaT sakuTari saxelmwifos nawilebad
daSla.
ruseTis mier yirimis okupaciis process 2014 wlis
Teberval-martSi bevri aRmosavleT da samxreT ukraineli
jer gaocebisgan ver ijerebda, xolo Semdeg, roca realobis
uaryofa SeuZlebeli gaxda, mas braziT Sexvda. rodesac yiri-
mis dapyrobis Semdeg moskovma scada „ajanyebebis“ mowyoba
ukrainis im nawilebSi, romlebic gaTvaliswinebuli hqonda
„novorosiis“ proeqtisTvis, bevri adgilobrivi macxovre-
beli gverdSi daudga ukrainul saxelmwifos am mcdelobaTa
damarcxebis saqmeSi. moskovma SeZlo Tavisi hibriduli Sei-
araRebuli konfliqtis dawyeba mxolod donbasis (doneckis
da luganskis oleqebis) aRmosavleT nawilSi, sadac rusuli
gavlena mosaxleobaSi yvelaze Zlieri iyo da sadac rusuli
SeiaraRebuli jgufebi advilad kveTdnen saxelmwifo sazR-
vars.
dRes ukrainas Tavisi Tanamedrove istoriis manZil-
ze yvelaze Zlieri erovnuli identoba aqvs, romelsac es
40-milioniani mosaxleobis mqone qveyana aqtiurad icavs.
ufro metic, mimdinare omi am identobas aZlierebs. frontis
xazi donbasSi aris unikaluri adgili, sadac ukrainelebi
qveynis sxvadasxva nawilidan erTad ebrZvian mters. mravali
adamiani iseTi gansxvavebuli adgilebidan, rogorc kievi,
lvovi, xarkovisa da odesis msgavsi rusulenovani qalaqebia,
yoveldRe esvris iaraRs saerTo mters da Rvris sisxls erT-
maneTis gverdigverd. amasTan, frontis xazze myof am adami-
anebs hyavT ojaxebi, megobrebi, naTesavebi da sxvani, visTanac
mudmivad aqvT kavSiri. es mZlavri gamaerTianebeli faqto-
ria. ukrainuli eri-saxelmwifos ganadgurebis mcdelobiT
putinis ruseTma is ufro sicocxlisunariani gaxada.

16
 ukrainaSi amJamad arsebuli mentalobisa da sajaro
diskursis gaTvaliswinebiT, aragonivrulia warmodgena,
TiTqos dasavleTis mxardaWeris gareSe is Sewyvetda ru-
seTis agresiisaTvis winaaRmdegobis gawevas. es ase ar aris.
ukrainelebi gauweven winaaRmdegobas ruseTis hibridul om-
sac da momavalSi SesaZlo ufro pirdapir samxedro Sete-
vebsac, imis miuxedavad, ras gaakeTebs an ar gaakeTebs dasav-
leTi. da maT es SeuZliaT kidec, miT ufro, rom 2014 wlis
Semdeg ukrainam Zalian mniSvnelovnad gaaumjobesa Tavisi
TavdacviTi SesaZleblobebi.37 hipoTeturi dasavluri uari
ukrainis daxmarebaze daazianebda ukrainuli winaaRmdegobis
xarisxs, magram is mas ar SeaCerebda.
amJamad ruseTi ar apirebs ukrainis winaaRmdeg Tavisi
agresiuli qmedebebis SeCerebas, xolo ukraina ar apirebs wi-
naaRmdegobis Sewyvetas. am realobisgan gaqceva SeuZlebelia.
Tuki dasavleTi ar gauwevda ukrainas adekvatur daxmarebas,
es mxolod gaaTamamebda ruseTs da, Sesabamisad, gazrdida
misi mxridan ukrainaze ufro pirdapiri da masStaburi Tav-
dasxmis Sansebs. ukrainelTa winaaRmdegobis gawevis nebisa da
unaris gaTvaliswinebiT, es niSnavs, rom rac ufro naklebia
ukrainis daxmareba dasavleTis mxridan, miT ufro didia aR-
mosavleT evropaSi masStaburi sabrZolo moqmedebebis daw-
yebis safrTxe. aseTi scenaris ardaSvebis saukeTeso gza aris
ruseTis Sekaveba.
es TavisTavad sakmarisi mizezia, rom dasavleTi uk­ra­
i­nas aqtiurad daexmaros moskovis gegmebis Sesakaveblad _
Tuki mxolod ruseTis imperiuli zraxvebis damarcxeba da
misi mezoblebis damorCilebis ardaSveba amis sakmaris moti-
vacias ver iZleva.

17
 SeniSvnebi

1 „Russia-Ukraine sea clash in 300 words,“ BBC, 30 November 2018, www.bbc.com/

news/world-europe-46345697 (nanaxia 5 ianvars, 2019).
2 “Russia’s Long-Term Disinformation Plan For The Azov Sea,” EU versus Disinformation,
06 December 2018, www.euvsdisinfo.eu/russias-long-term-disinformation-plan-for-
the-azov-sea/ (nanaxia 10 ianvars, 2019);
zogadad antiukrainul rusul propagandaze 2018 wels ix.: “Ukraine
Under Information Fire,” EU versus Disinformation, 07 January 2019, www.euvsdisinfo.
eu/ukraine-under-information-fire/ (nanaxia 10 ianvars, 2019).
3 “Постпред РФ при ОБСЕ сообщил, что Киев готовится использовать химоружие
в Донбассе,” ТАСС, 26 ноября 2018, www.tass.ru/politika/5837398 (nanaxia 7
ianvars, 2019).
4 “В ДНР заявили о подготовке Киевом ударной группировки войск для
масштабного наступления,” ТАСС, 30 ноября 2018, www.tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-
panorama/5856564 (nanaxia 7 ianvars, 2019).
5 Григорий Дубов, “МИД заявил об угрозе военных провокаций с химоружием в
Донбассе,” РБК, 05 декабря 2018, www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5c0786e89a7947759ef
3d312?utm_source=tw_rbc (nanaxia 8 ianvars, 2019).
6 “Разведка ДНР обнаружила ударные БПЛА на позициях украинских
сил в Донбассе,” ТАСС, 09 декабря 2018, www.tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-
panorama/5890622 (nanaxia 7 ianvars, 2019).
7 “В ДНР заявили о подготовке Киевом масштабного наступления в Донбассе,” РИА
Новости, 10 декабря 2018, www.ria.ru/20181210/1547727419.html (nanaxia 7
ianvars, 2019).
8 Press release, Embassy of Russia in the USA, Facebook-is oficialuri gverdi, 11
December 2018, www.facebook.com/RusEmbUSA/photos/a.493759737501088/9282
66964050361/?type=3&theater (nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019).
9 “«Пугают химатакой»: луганчане рассказали о фейках в оккупации,” LIGA.net, 11
декабря 2018, www.news.liga.net/society/news/pugayut-himatakoy-luganchane-
rasskazali-o-feykah-v-okkupatsii (nanaxia 10 ianvars, 2019).
10 “Захарова: Киев готовит провокацию в Донбассе на мариупольском направлении,”
ТАСС, 13 декабря 2018, www.tass.ru/politika/5907320 (nanaxia 7 ianvars, 2019).
11 “Выступление Постоянного представителя Российской Федерации
А.К.Лукашевича на заседании Постоянного совета ОБСЕ 13 декабря 2018 года,”
Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации, www.mid.ru/web/guest/
maps/ua/-/asset_publisher/ktn0ZLTvbbS3/content/id/3441567 (nanaxia 8 ianvars,
2019).
12 “ИС: Боевики запустили фейки о бомбардировке Горловки «химбомбами»,” LIGA.
net, 14 декабря 2018, www.news.liga.net/incidents/news/is-boeviki-zapustili-feyki-o-
bombardirovke-gorlovki-himbombami (nanaxia 10 ianvars, 2019).

18
13 “Лавров: Киев планирует вооруженную провокацию на границе с Крымом в
конце года,” ТАСС, 17 декабря 2018, www.tass.ru/politika/5920850 (nanaxia 7
ianvars, 2019).
14 “В ДНР опасаются наступления силовиков в Донбассе,” РИА Новости, 17 декабря
2018, www.ria.ru/20181217/1548099332.html (nanaxia 7 ianvars, 2019).
15 “Выступление Постоянного представителя Российской Федерации
А.К.Лукашевича на заседании Постоянного совета ОБСЕ о ситуации на Украине
и необходимости выполнения Минских договоренностей, Вена, 20 декабря 2018
года,” Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации, www.mid.ru/web/
guest/vistupleniya_rukovodstva_mid/-/asset_publisher/MCZ7HQuMdqBY/content/
id/3456537 (nanaxia 8 ianvars, 2019).
16 “Комментарий официального представителя МИД России М.В.Захаровой в связи
с готовящимися провокациями со стороны Киева на юго-востоке Украины,”
Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации, 24 декабря 2018,
www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/
id/3462742 (nanaxia 8 ianvars, 2019).
17 “В ДНР заявили о прибытии под Донецк эшелона ВСУ с токсичным веществом,”
ТАСС, 25 декабря 2018, www.tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/5950866
(nanaxia 7 ianvars, 2019).
18 “US Accuses Russia, Syria of Fabricating Story of Chemical Weapons Use,” VOA News,
07 December 2018, www.voanews.com/a/us-accuses-russia-syria-of-fabricating-
story-of-chemical-weapons-use/4691673.html (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).
19 interviu nikolai patruSevTan, Российская газета (ruseTis mTavrobis
gamocema), 15 января 2019, www.rg.ru/2019/01/15/patrushev-novoe-oruzhie-
obespechit-bezopasnost-rossii-na-desiatiletiia.html (nanaxia 18 ianvars, 2019).
20 “Putin: Soviet collapse a ‘genuine tragedy’,” NBC News, 25 April 2005, www.nbcnews.
com/id/7632057/ns/world_news/t/putin-soviet-collapse-genuine-tragedy/#.XDYbg_
ZuJMs (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).
21 `rusuli samyaros“ Sesaxeb, sxva wyaroebs Soris, ix.:
Orysia Lutsevych, Agents of the Russian World: Proxy Groups in the Contested
Neighbourhood, Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia Programme Research Paper, April
2016, me-7 gverdidan, www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/
research/2016-04-14-agents-russian-world-lutsevych-embargoed.pdf (nanaxia 11
ianvars, 2019);
Gabriela Rosa-Hernández, “Assessment of the Future of ‘Russkiy Mir’ in Russia’s
Grand Strategy,” RealClearDefense, 31 December 2018, www.realcleardefense.com/
articles/2018/12/31/assessment_of_the_future_of_russkiy_mir_in_russias_grand_
strategy_114070.html (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).
22 pirvelad es mosazreba gamovTqvi 2014 wlis ivnisSi ukrainul mediaSi
gamoqveynebul statiaSi: Давид Баташвили, “Иная Русь,” LIGA.net, 04 июня
2014, www.liga.net/politics/opinion/inaya-rus-pochemu-v-kremle-nenavidyat-
ukrainskuyu-gosudarstvennost (nanaxia 10 ianvars, 2019).
23 Ian Traynor and Oksana Grytsenko, “Ukraine suspends talks on EU trade pact as Putin
wins tug of war,” The Guardian, 21 November 2013, www.theguardian.com/world/2013/
nov/21/ukraine-suspends-preparations-eu-trade-pact (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).

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 24 magaliTisTvis ix.: Shaun Walker, “Ukraine’s EU trade deal will be catastrophic,
says Russia,” The Guardian, 22 September 2013, www.theguardian.com/world/2013/
sep/22/ukraine-european-union-trade-russia (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).
25 karl bildtis Twitter-is gverdi, 21 noemberi 2013, www.twitter.com/
carlbildt/status/403521513342898176 (nanaxia 11 ianvars, 2019).
26 “Небесна Сотня. Список загиблих Героїв України,” Радіо свобода, 25 Лютий
[Tebervali] 2014, www.radiosvoboda.org/a/25276530.html (nanaxia 9 ianvars,
2019).
27 ix. kievSi 2014 wlis 20 Tebervals ganviTarebuli movlenebis
videoCanawerebis nimuSebi (gafrTxileba _ Canawerebi Seicavs mZime
kadrebs): www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5TbLFIKwgY; www.youtube.com/
watch?v=ulOXNJcwzX0&t (nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019);
aseve ix.: Mattathias Schwartz, “Who Killed the Kiev Protesters? A 3-D Model Holds the
Clues,” The New York Times Magazine, 30 May 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/
magazine/ukraine-protest-video.html (nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019).
28 “Putin: Russia helped Yanukovych to flee Ukraine,” BBC, 24 October 2014, www.bbc.
com/news/world-europe-29761799 (nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019).
29 “Putin describes secret operation to seize Crimea,” Yahoo News, 09 March 2015,
www.news.yahoo.com/putin-describes-secret-operation-seize-crimea-212858356.html
(nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019).
30 donbasSi mimdinare omis 2014-2015 wlebis aqtiuri fazis zogadi
mimoxilvisTvis ix.: Maksymilian Czuperski, John Herbst, Eliot Higgins, Alina
Polyakova and Damon Wilson, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine, The
Atlantic Council of the United States, May 2015, www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/
publications/Hiding_in_Plain_Sight/HPS_English.pdf (nanaxia 15 ianvars, 2019).
31 ix. rusuli samxedro nawilebis adgilmdebareoba, ukrainis sazRvarze
bolo periodSi SeqmnilTa CaTvliT: daviT bataSvili, ruseTis
SeiaraRebuli Zalebi: interaqtiuli ruka, saqarTvelos strategiisa
da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fondi (rondelis fondi),
gamoqveynda 2018 wlis 7 agvistos, www.gfsis.org/ge/maps/view/russian-
military-forces (nanaxia 14 ianvars, 2019).
32 Дарья Михалина, “В составе 150-й мотострелковой дивизии под Ростовом
сформировали новый полк,” Телерадиокомпания Вооруженных Сил Российской
Федерации «ЗВЕЗДА», 02 декабря 2018, www.tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/
content/201812021804-73o7.htm (nanaxia 5 ianvars, 2019).
33 “В Клинцах Брянской области прошел фестиваль Всероссийского комплекса
ГТО для участников юнармейского движения,” Труд, 29 октября 2018, www.
klitnsy-trud.ru/society/2018/10/29/v-klincax-bryanskoj-oblasti-proshel-festival-
vserossijskogo-kompleksa-gto-dlya-uchastnikov-yunarmejskogo-dvizheniya/ (nanaxia
26 dekembers, 2018).
34 “Russia, Despite Military Ventures, Cut Defense Spending By Most In Decades,”
RFE/RL, 02 May 2018, www.rferl.org/a/russia-despite-ventures-syria-ukraine-cut-
military-spending-last-year-most-since-1998-economic-collapse-western-sanctions-
recession/29203634.html (nanaxia 6 ianvars, 2019).

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35 „modi, ukraina ruseTs SevaWmevinoT imitom, rom realistebi unda
viyoT“ Janris nawerebis mimoxilvas dasWirdeboda calke msxvili
naSromi, magram imis gemos gasagebad, razec vsaubrob, ix.: Daniel DePetris,
“It is a mistake to arm Ukraine,” Defense News, 12 March 2018, www.defensenews.
com/opinion/commentary/2018/03/12/it-is-a-mistake-to-arm-ukraine/ (nanaxia 11
ianvars, 2019).
avtori iyenebs iseT argumentebs, rogorc „ukrainis politikuri
loialoba ukiduresad mniSvnelovania ruseTisTvis“ da „putinisTvis
ubralod warmoudgenelia msxvili mezobeli saxelmwifos _ romelic
istoriulad iyo Zveli ruseTis imperiisa da sabWoTa kavSiris
SemaerTebeli qsovili _ moZraoba evropis siaxloves da misi
moskovisadmi antagonisturi moqmedeba“.
avtori ratomRac ar miiCnevs saWirod gaiTvaliswinos ra aris
„ukiduresad mniSvnelovani“ ukrainelTaTvis da ra aris „ubralod
warmoudgeneli“ maTTvis. realizmis nebismier saxeobasTan
SeuTavsebelia uari mxedvelobaSi miiRo daaxloebiT 40-milioniani
mosaxleobis (rac ufro metia, vidre kanadis da avstraliis mosaxleoba)
mqone qveynis politikuri neba da identoba.
36 es gzavnili popularulia rus imperialistebSi. vladimir putinma
pirdapir gamoxata is aSS-is prezident jorj buSTan saubarSi, 2008
wlis aprilSi Catarebul natos buqarestis samitze: „Sen ar gesmis,
jorj, rom ukraina ar aris saxelmwifo. ra aris ukraina? misi
teritoriebis nawili aRmosavleT evropaa, magram umetesi nawili
Cveni naCuqaria“. sxva wyaroTa Soris, ix.: Roland Oliphant, “Fifteen years of
Vladimir Putin: in quotes,” The Telegraph, 07 May 2015, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/
worldnews/vladimir-putin/11588182/Fifteen-years-of-Vladimir-Putin-in-quotes.html
(nanaxia 14 ianvars, 2019);
litvis sagareo saqmeTa ministrma (da yofilma mudmivma warmomadgenelma
natoSi) linas linkeviCusma gaixsena putinis Semdegi citata 2008
wlis nato-ruseTis sabWos Sexvedridan: „visTan TanamSromlobT?
ukrainasTan? es qveyanac araa, es aris raRac xelovnuri warmonaqmni,
raRac istoriuli Secdoma da Tqvenc iciT, rom es araa normaluri“.
ix.: “At 2008 NATO-Russia Council, Putin called Ukraine ‘artificial formation’ and
‘mistake in history’ – Linkevicius,” UNIAN, 07 December 2018, www.unian.info/
politics/10368393-at-2008-nato-russia-council-putin-called-ukraine-artificial-
formation-and-mistake-in-history-linkevicius.html (nanaxia 14 ianvars, 2019).
37 Mykola Bielieskov, “Ukraine’s Military Is Back,” The National Interest, 27 February 2018,
www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/ukraines-military-back-24674 (nanaxia 9
ianvars, 2019);
Denys Kiryukhin, “The Ukrainian Military: From Degradation to Renewal,” Foreign
Policy Research Institute, 17 August 2018, www.fpri.org/article/2018/08/the-
ukrainian-military-from-degradation-to-renewal/ / (nanaxia 9 ianvars, 2019).

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