Number of People of the Target Market

Barangay 2014 2015 2016

BANCAL 6602 6675 6748
JAS (SIRAN) 2080 2103 2126
LAMBAC 3340 3377 3414
MAGSAYSAY 3283 3319 3355
MACQUIAPO 3341 3378 3415
NATIVIDAD 6084 6151 6218
PLAZA BURGOZ 266 269 272
PULUNGMASLE 9257 9359 9461
RIZAL 3900 3943 3986
SAN AGUSTIN 5729 5792 5855
SAN ANTONIO 4388 4436 4484
SAN ISIDRO 1331 1346 1361
SAN JOSE 2053 2076 2099
SAN JUAN BAUTISTA 2509 2537 2565
SAN JUAN NEPOMOCENO 5994 6060 6126
SAN MATIAS 3462 3500 3538
SAN MIGUEL(BETIS) 4659 4710 4761
SAN NICOLAS 1ST 1614 1632 1650
SAN NICOLAS 2ND 2583 2611 2639
SAN PABLO 2934 2966 2998
SAN PEDRO 5256 5314 5372
SAN RAFAEL(DUCK ISLAND) 3900 3943 3986
SAN ROQUE 3216 3251 3286
SAN VICENTE(EBUS) 5907 5972 6037
SAN JUAN 2482 2509 2536
STA.FILOMINA 1867 1888 1909
STA. INES 3401 3438 3475
STA. URSOLA 5896 5961 6026
STO.CRISTO 3566 3605 3644
STO. NIÑO (POB) 2076 2099 2122
ASCOMO 3175 3210 3245
 TOTAL 116,151 117,430 118,709

Computation for Consumption Rate

Consumption Basis Number of Number of frequency MCR
Participants
Daily 37 30 1110
Once a week 18 4 72
Twice a week 33 8 264
Once a month 9 1 9
Twice a month 3 2 6
Total 100 1455

Computation for Historical Demand

Year 2014 2015 2016
Target no. of people 116,151 117,430 118,709
Target market percentage 0.81 0.81 0.81
Projected target market 93,792 94,825 95,858
Average consumption 655 655 655
Demand per month 61,410,268 62,086,489 62,762,710
No. of months in a year 12 12 12
Annual Demand 736,923,214 745,037,864 753,152,515

Methods for Computing Projected Demand

Arithmetic Straight Line Method
Year Actual Values (x)
2014 736,923,214
2015 745,037,864
2016 753,152,515
2017 761,362,334
2018 769,660,976
Historical Demand of Arithmetic Method
Projected years Project demand (X2)
 2019 776,208,528 6.02499678835139E+17 6547552.38
2020 782,756,080 6.12707081266189E+17
2021 789,303,633 6.23000224581577E+17
2022 795,851,185 6.33379108781303E+17
2023 802,398,737 6.43843733865366E+17
3,946,518,163 3.11542982732957E+18
Standard Deviation 10,352,589

The Sales are from the competitors per grams(From 2014-2018 )

Competitors Supply (2014)
Competitors Daily Supply (g) Numbers of Days in a No. of months in a year
Betty's 60000 Month
30 12
Susie's Cuisine 120000 30 12
Jj and Pj Delicacies 72000 30 12
Nathaniel's 128000 30 12
Home Made 20000 30 12
TOTAL 400000

Competitor’s Supply (2015)

Competitors Daily Supply (g) No. of Day / Month No. of Month / Year
Betty's 144000 30 12
Susie's Cuisine 270000 30 12
Jj and Pj Delicacies 180000 30 12
Nathaniel's 288000 30 12
Home Made 44000 30 12
TOTAL 926000

Competitors Supply (2016)

Competitors Daily Supply (g) No. of Day / Month No. of Month / Year
Betty's 162000 30 12
Susie's Cuisine 303750 30 12
 Jj and Pj Delicacies 202500 30 12
Nathaniel's 324000 30 12
Home Made 49500 30 12
TOTAL 1041750

Competitors Supply (2017)

Competitors Daily Supply (g) No. of Days in a Month No. of Month in a Year
Betty's 180000 30 12
Susie'sCuisine 337500 30 12
Jj and Pj Dellicacies 225000 30 12
Nathaniel's 360000 30 12
Home Made 50000 30 12
TOTAL 1152500

Competitors Supply (2018)

Competitors Daily Supply (g) No. of Days in a Month No. of Month in a Year
Betty's 189000 30 12
Susie's Cuisine 337500 30 12
Jj and Pj Delicacies 243000 30 12
Nathaniel's 360000 30 12
Home Made 49500 30 12
TOTAL 1179000

Total Supply for the Year 2014-2018

Competitors 2014 2015 2016
Betty's 21,600,000 51,840,000 58,320,000
Susui's Cuisine 43,200,000 97,200,000 109,350,000
Jj and Pj Delicacies 25,920,000 64,800,000 72,900,000
Nathaniel's 46,080,000 103,680,000 116,640,000
Home Made 7,200,000 15,840,000 17,820,000
TOTAL 144,000,000 164,880,000 185,490,000
Method for Computing Projected Supply
Arithmetic Straight Line Method:
Year Historical Supply
2014 144,000,000
2015 164,880,000
2016 185,490,000
2017 204,300,000
2018 207,360,000

The quotient will be the basis of increase for projection years starting 2018:
Projected Years Projected Supply
2019 220,032,000 12672000
2020 232,704,000
2021 245,376,000
2022 258,048,000
2023 270,720,000
Standard Deviation 20,036,191.25

Demand and Supply Gap Analysis

Historical Demand Supply Margin of Error (5%)
2014 736,923,214 144,000,000 29,646,161
2015 745,037,864 164,880,000 29,007,893
2016 753,152,515 185,490,000 28,383,126
2017 761,362,334 204,300,000 27,853,117
2018 769,660,976 207,360,000 28,115,049

Projected Demand Supply Margin of Error (5%)

2019 776,208,528 220,032,000 27,808,826
2020 782,756,080 232,704,000 27,502,604
2021 789,303,633 245,376,000 27,196,382
2022 795,851,185 258,048,000 26,890,159
2023 802,398,737 270,720,000 26,583,937
Competitor’s Market Share (2018)
Competitors Annual Supply Total Supply Market Share
Nathaniel's 68,040,000 207,360,000 0.33
Susui's Cuisine 121,500,000 207,360,000 0.59
Home Made 17,820,000 207,360,000 0.09

Statistical semi log method (Demand)

Year Historical demand (y) Log y (x)

2014 736,923,214 8.87 -2

2015 745,037,864 8.87 -1
2016 753,152,515 8.88 0
2017 761,362,334 8.88 1
2018 769,660,976 8.89 2
3,766,136,902 44

Year Projected Demand (y) Log y (x)

2019 778,081,562 8.89 3

2020 786,578,143 8.90 4
2021 795,167,505 8.90 5
2022 803,850,663 8.91 6
2023 812,628,640 8.91 7
3,976,306,513

Standard Deviation 13,656,052.63

Parabolic Projection Method

(Demand)
 Year Historical Demand (y) (x) (X2)

2014 736,923,214 -2 4
2015 745,037,864 -1 1
2016 753,152,515 0 0
2017 761,362,334 1 1
2018 769,660,976 2 4
3,766,136,902 0 10

Year Projected Demand (y) (x) (x2)

2019 777,998,954 3 6.05282371791802E+017

2020 786,410,528 4 6.18441518789093E+017
2021 794,888,267 5 6.31847357125887E+017
2022 803,432,170 6 6.45503252347112E+017
2023 812,042,238 7 6.59412596264029E+017
3,974,772,157 3.16048709631792E+018

Standard Deviation 13,456,932.04

Demand Analysis
Historical demand
2014 736,923,214
2015 745,037,864
2016 753,152,515
2017 761,362,334
2018 769,660,976

Projected Demand
2019 776,208,528
2020 782,756,080
2021 789,303,633
 2022 795,851,185
2023 802,398,737

Statistical semi log method (Supply)

Year Historical Supply (y) Log y (x)

2014 144,000,000 8.16 -2

2015 164,880,000 8.22 -1
2016 185,490,000 8.27 0
2017 204,300,000 8.31 1
2018 207,360,000 8.32 2
906,030,000 41

Year Projected Supply (y) Log y (x)

2019 238,295,848 8.377 3

2020 261,877,999 8.418 4
2021 287,793,878 8.459 5
2022 316,274,434 8.500 6
2023 347,573,474 8.541 7
1,451,815,633

Standard Deviation 43,224,485.99

Parabolic Projection Method (Supply)

Year Historical Supply (y) (x) (X2)

2014 144,000,000 -2 4
2015 164,880,000 -1 1
2016 185,490,000 0 0
2017 204,300,000 1 1
2018 207,360,000 2 4
 906,030,000 0 10

Year Projected Supply (y) (x) SD (x2)

2019 212,328,000 3 4.5083179584E+016

2020 210,222,000 4 4.4193289284E+016
2021 202,767,429 5 4.11146300894694E+016
2022 189,964,286 6 3.60864298469388E+016
2023 171,812,571 7 2.9519559700898E+016
987,094,286 1.95997088505306E+017

Standard Deviation 16,778,429.06

Supply Analysis
Historical Supply
2014 144,000,000
2015 164,880,000
2016 185,490,000
2017 204,300,000
2018 207,360,000

Projected Supply
2019 220,032,000
2020 232,704,000
2021 245,376,000
2022 258,048,000
2023 270,720,000
2017 2018
6821 6896
2149 2173 hist 2014 2018
3451 3489 proj 2019 2023
3392 3429
3452 3490
6286 6354
275 278
9564 9668
4029 4073
5919 5983
4533 4583
1376 1390
2122 2145
2593 2621
6193 6260
3577 3616
4813 4866
1668 1686
2668 2697
3031 3064
5430 5490
4029 4073
3322 3358
6103 6169
2564 2592
1929 1950
3513 3552
6092 6158
3684 3724
2145 2168
3280 3316
 120,003 121,311

MCR (Grams)

49,950
3,240
11,880
405
270
65,475

2017 2018
120,003 121,311
0.81 0.81 0.931 q1-6
96,902 97,959
655 655
63,446,861 64,138,415
12 12
761,362,334 769,660,976
 Total
21,600,000
43,200,000
25,920,000
46,080,000
7,200,000
144,000,000

Total
51,840,000
97,200,000
64,800,000
103,680,000
15,840,000
164,880,000

Total
58,320,000
109,350,000
 72,900,000
116,640,000
17,820,000
185,490,000

Total
64,800,000
121,500,000
81,000,000
129,600,000
18,000,000
204,300,000

Total
68,040,000
121,500,000
87,480,000
129,600,000
17,820,000
207,360,000

2017 2018
64,800,000 68,040,000
121,500,000 121,500,000
81,000,000 87,480,000
129,600,000 129,600,000
18,000,000 17,820,000
204,300,000 207,360,000
 1,226,880,000

Gap % Unsatisfied
563,277,053 0.76 75
551,149,971 0.74
539,279,389 0.72
529,209,217 0.70 decreasing
534,185,927 0.69

Gap % Unsatisfied
528,367,702 0.68
522,549,476 0.67
516,731,251 0.65
510,913,026 0.64
505,094,801 0.63
 (x2) X log y

4 -17.73
1 -8.87
0 0.00
1 8.88
4 17.77
10 0.05

SD (x2)

6.05410916705147E+017
6.18705174375415E+017
6.32291361513952E+017
6.46175888618936E+017
6.6036530695709E+017
3.16294864817054E+018
(x4) (xy) (x2y)

16 -1,473,846,427 2,947,692,855
1 -745,037,864 745,037,864
0 0 0
1 761,362,334 761,362,334
16 1,539,321,951 3,078,643,902
34 81,799,993 7,532,736,955
 (x2) X log y

4 -16.32
1 -8.22
0 0.00
1 8.31
4 16.63
10 0.41

SD (x2)

5.67849113858439E+016
6.85800862236691E+016
8.28253159450805E+016
1.00029517884082E+017
1.20807320007768E+017
4.29027151446444E+017

(x4) (xy) (x2y)

16 -288,000,000 576,000,000
1 -164,880,000 164,880,000
0 0 0
1 204,300,000 204,300,000
16 414,720,000 829,440,000
34 166,140,000 1,774,620,000
(c3:c33) - 15 =
t1
Number of People of the Target Market
Barangay 2007 2008 2009 2010
Del Carmen 4231 4328 4416 4506
Del Pilar 9426 10212 10420 10633
Del Rosario 4803 5003 5105 5209
Dolores 21188 18702 19084 19473
Juiliana 3135 2775 2831 2889
Maimpis 7313 8521 8695 8872
Quebiawan 11370 7660 7816 7976
San Agustin 19293 17733 18095 18464
San Isidro 12730 14137 14426 14720
San Jose 12730 14137 14426 14720
TOTAL 106219 103207 105313 107462
 2011 2012
4606 4707
10868 11108
5324 5442
19903 20343
2953 3018
9068 9268
8152 8332
18872 19289
15045 15378
15045 15045
109836 111930
 for pizza

Competitors Daily Sales No of days in a year Yearly projected sales

LOTS'A PIZZA (SMP) 40 365 14600
LOTS'A PIZZA (SMSF) 30 365 10950
FCJ 81 365 29565

Total Competitor Sale for the year 2016

Competitors Daily sales No. of days Total
LOTS'A PIZZA (SMP) 40 365 14600
LOTS'A PIZZA (SMSF) 30 365 10950
FCJ 81 365 29565
Total 55115

Computation for Historical Supply

Year Historical Supply using Growth Rate

2012 50719
2013 51784
2014 52871
2015 53981
2016 55115

Computation for Projected Supply

Arithmetic Straight Line

Projected Years Projected Supply

2017 55994
2018 56874
2019 57753
2020 58632
2021 59511
Market Share (%)
26.49
19.87
53.64
100

2572416961
2681582656
2795342641
2913948361
3037663225
14000953844

879