From Agriculture to AgTech

An industry transformed beyond

molecules and chemicals
Executive summary 04
Disruption drivers in
the agricultural industry 06
Key challenges and
growth opportunities 08
Planting the seeds for disruption 13
How venture capital fertilizes
the revolution 17
Monitor Deloitte
GrowthPath® services 20
Your Contacts at Monitor Deloitte 23
From Agriculture to AgTech: Executive summary
The agricultural industry is about to be disrupted and
will transform into a high-tech industry
From Agriculture to AgTech: an unseen
boom in agricultural venture capital in-
vestment leads to a major disruption
and foreshadows the millennial shift
from family farms to smart “food fac-
tories”.
Today’s agricultural industry is on the verge
of turning into a high-tech industry, as the
growing number of agricultural startups
and investors shows.
Disruption driver No. 1
Ten global megatrends that impact agricul-
ture clearly intensify the transformation:
1. A growing population
2. Societal and demographic changes
3. Increasing urbanization
4. Climate change
5. Smart agricultural technologies
6. Biotechnology
7. Servicization around core products
8. Increasing value chain integration
9. Globalized trade
10. Changing international regulations
04
Disruption driver No. 2
Partly complementary, partly concurrent,
industry-specific change accelerators in
three categories are amplifying the speed
of disruption in agriculture:
1. New consumer preferences:
the demand for personalized, on-demand
products and increasing awareness for
health and sustainability.
2. Emerging technologies:
developing biological tissues, advanced
manufacturing technologies, autonomous
vehicles, and connected devices.
3. Changing value chain and firm
configurations:
growing trend towards horizontally and/or
vertically integrating adjacent offerings.
Three high-impact growth
opportunities
As a consequence of the identified disrup-
tion drivers, the agricultural ecosystem fac-
es new challenges, from which three signif-
icant growth opportunities for current and
future players can be derived:
1. Improving yield efficiency
The world population, of which 10% re-
main undernourished, is rapidly growing,
thereby creating severe urgency to in-
crease yields.
2. I ncreasing supply chain efficiency
Reducing the average value chain loss of
33% of initial production is a substantial-
ly stronger lever in increasing effective
output than upfront yield improvement.
3. Decreasing complexity along farm-
ers’ value chain
Since today’s farmer already faces high
complexity and tomorrow’s farmer will
deal with even more players and tech-
nologies after the disruption, farmers
are willing to pay for integrated solutions
and ecosystems.

The fourth agricultural revolution is already
on its way and you should invest now
How innovators capitalize on growth
opportunities and plant the seeds for
the fourth agricultural revolution.
Various innovators are trying to harness
the three growth opportunities. While tra-
ditional venture capital firms are only slowly
getting involved, large agrochemical players
are already investing heavily in agricultural
technology – "AgTech". Looking at the agri-
cultural ecosystem, there are five major in-
novation fields in which innovators are in-
creasingly active:
1. R
 erouting value chains:
multiple players are trying to bridge or skip
value chain steps by direct-to-consumer
delivery, meal kits, food e-commerce etc.
to reduce supply chain inefficiency.
2. C
 rop efficiency technology:
start-ups and cross-industry innovators
offer drones, robots, big data and shar-
ing platforms as well as irrigation, soil, and
crop technologies to increase effective
yield.
3. Bio-chemicals and bio-energy:
attempting to reduce the ecological foot-
print, innovators develop biologically-pro-
duced agrochemicals and bio-materials
and engage in producing bio-energy.
4. F
 ood technology and artificial meat:
since it takes eight kilograms of grain to
produce one kilogram of meat, firms are
developing plant-based meat and eggs
to harness “sustainable protein”.
5. C
 ontained and vertical farming:
one of the youngest innovation fields,
smart greenhouses and contained farm-
ing are about to take off.
How venture capital is fertilizing
the revolution
After more than doubling from 2014 to
2015, AgTech investment is on an exponen-
tial growth path and follows the steps of
FinTech, surprising traditional and long-es-
tablished players.
Where the revolution is blooming
Starting from the US, other countries like
Israel, China and India are also catching on
to the fourth agricultural revolution, dig-
ging into more innovation fields along the
way. The investment focus will shift away
from the mature food e-commerce sector
to a more diversified portfolio of innovation
fields and targeted value zones.
From Agriculture to AgTech
Why it’s the right time to invest
in AgTech
1. Unseen, rapid growth:
AgTech is not on the radar of tradition-
al investors yet, but investments grew at
63% CAGR from 2010–2015, like FinTech.
2. L
 ow-hanging fruit:
existing players are willing to invest 10-15
years and up to $250 million per product
launch, while innovators are finding lean
solutions and going for low-hanging fruit.
3. Huge market potential:
by tapping into the large 3 trillion dol-
lar global agricultural market, investors
can expect high scalability and signifi-
cant ROI.
The fourth agricultural revolution is about
to disrupt the industry – to be ready to har-
vest, have your GrowthPath® strategy pre-
pared.
05
Disruption driver No. 1
Ten impactful megatrends are creating the foundation for
transforming agriculture into a high-tech industry

Growing population Globalized trade

The world’s population will Crops are grown in most suitable locations,
reach 10bn in 2050 then processed and sold internationally

Urbanization Biotechnology
50% of the world’s population Genomics and genetic modification
lives in urban areas help improving existing varieties

Integrated value chain

Agricultural technology Large firms start integrating
New technologies trigger vertically to optimize
higher yield and cost their value chain
reductions

Societal changes International regulations

The need for resource-intensive Global exports lead to regulatory
food products increases entanglements between countries

Climate change Servicization

Changing weather conditions Agrochemical suppliers offer a range
affect soil quality and crop yields of services around their core product

The ten global megatrends will lead to a dis-

ruptive transition in the next 5-10 years, in in-
terplay with more industry-specific change
accelerators.

06 Source: Deloitte Expert Interviews; Destination 2025: Focus on the Future of the Food Industry
(Deloitte and Biobusiness Alliance of Minnesota); The Food Value Chain (Deloitte); UN DESA
 From Agriculture to AgTech

Disruption driver No. 2

Industry-specific change accelerators will amplify the intensity of the
transformation, varying by time and level of impact

New consumer preferences

Short Long Small impact
1 Demand for personalized products and term term
solutions
2 Increased health awareness in food Medium impact
consumption and supply traceability
3 Expectation to consume services and
products on demand
Large impact

4 Reduction of ecological footprint and

demand for sustainability

Emerging technologies
Short Long
5 Advanced application of biological term term
technologies, tissues, and organisms
6 Advanced manufacturing technologies
including 3D printing and robotics
7 Autonomous vehicles that perform tasks
like phenotyping or fumigating plants
8 Devices and sensors communicating data
via mobile and smart connectivity

The agricultural disruption will be

Changing configurations
9 Horizontal integration of adjacent
offerings along the agricultural ecosystem
10 Accessing, processing and analyzing big
data to optimize yield
11 Vertical integration of input suppliers to
optimize cost, efficiency and
complementarity
Short Long accelerated by new consumer
term term preferences, emerging technolo-
gies and changing firm and value
chain configurations, leading to
new challenges for agricultural
players. While the intensity of the
impact varies, most change accel-
erators will happen in short- to
medium-term.

07
Key challenges and opportunities
Due to the effect of disruption drivers, agriculture faces challenges
that offer significant, untapped growth opportunities

Growth opportunity Growth opportunity

No. 2 No. 1
Wholesale and
Even though technology distribution Feeding a growing and in-
has already reduced supply creasingly urbanized popu-
chain losses, the average lation, of which about 10%
losses of 35% of initial pro- is still undernourished,
duction means that a large there is severe urgency to
amount of value is lost increase yields.

Waste
management Yield efficiency

Supply chain
Market
efficiency
volatility
Processors Producers

Energy
Capital and water
Confronted with availability efficiency
global trends, regula-
tors, and strong mar- Innovation and Growth opportunity
ket forces, agribusi- technologies
Globalization No. 3
nesses are driven to
Since today’s farmer al-
rethink their busi-
ready faces high complex-
ness models, which
ity and tomorrow’s farm-
offers veritable Storage and er will deal with even more
growth opportuni- transport
players after the disrup-
ties for existing and
tion, farmers will be open
new players alike.
to integrated solutions and
ecosystems.

08
Growing population
 From Agriculture to AgTech

11,3
Growth opportunity No. 1
12,3
11,3
12,3
Yield
efficiency
10,6

Supply chain
Players can capitalize on the remaining yield improvement efficiency

23,0
potential
23,9
of 30% to feed a growing population
23,0 23,9
22,2 Innovation and
technologies
Notwithstanding a 20% decline in arable land per Yields on key crops still exhibit
capita from 2000 to 2030, three billion more people a remaining improvement potential
2012 will be nourished
2013 2011 2012of 30%
2013 on average

Billion Hectares Arable Effective

People Land per Capita yield
9 0,30 100
1
8 90
28% 30% 25% ø30%
1 1 1
7 80 38%
0,25
1 1 70
6
1 -20%
60
5
8 0,20 50
4
7 7 7 40
3 6 6
5 30
0,15
2
20
1 10
0 0,10 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rice Wheat Corn Soybean

World Population, undernourished Remaining potential

World Population, nourished Extra yield from crop protection
Yield with no crop protection Yield with no crop protection

The necessity of increasing production in the face of declin-

ing arable land represents a great growth opportunity for
players who can improve effective yields, as farmers are will-
ing to invest past profits to gain future efficiency.

Source: United Nations; FAO, Syngenta, Monitor Deloitte research 09

100
90
28% 30% 25% ø30%
80 38%

70
60
Growth opportunity No. 2 Yield
efficiency

50
Supply chain
Reducing only a part of the 33% average value chain losses is a
40
efficiency

stronger lever than pure yield increase

30
20
Innovation and
10 technologies
0Value chain losses per processing step by region, as a percentage of initial production
Rice Wheat Corn Soybean

Percentage lost
of initial production

40 36% 36%
34% 1% Up to 22% yield losses
32% 33%
31% 6% 5% could be saved with more
4% 28%
30 efficient supply chains,
10% 4% 3% 6% 5%
13% particularly in in popula-
11% 5% ø22%
5% tion-rich, developing econ-
4% 6%
20 3% omies.
2% 2% 13% ø33%
3% 3% 8%
4% 8%
10%
4% 3% 7% In order to compensate
10 33% of value chain losses,
13% 13% an unfeasible 50%1 yield
11% 11% 11%
9% 9%
increase would be neces-
0
North Europe Japan, Latin South and North Afria, Sub- sary, while increasing sup-
America, incl. Russia Korea, America South- West and Saharan ply chain efficiency by on-
Oceania China East Asia Central Asia Africa
ly 5% points has the same
effect as a 10% yield im-
Consumption-level losses provement.
Distribution losses
Processing and packaging losses
Post-harvest losses
Harvest losses

d
1
 he production increase needed to compensate 33% losses is
T
c
50%, since losses need to be deducted from any potential yield by
dividing it by the effective yield.
b
10 Source: United Nations, FAO, IWMI 2007, Monitor Deloitte Research
a
 From Agriculture to AgTech

Growth opportunity No. 3 Yield

efficiency

Supply chain
Today’s farmer already faces high complexity, but tomorrow’s efficiency

farmer has to cope with even more

Innovation and
technologies

Off-farm Robotics
delivery , and drones
GOs Equip
innovators ,N me innovators
nks ors nt
OE
t
Ba gula M
re s

Seed and
Insurance Finance soil tech
innovators and credit Equipment innovators
ibu and

Se
and machines
s

ed
tor
ors

sup
ess

plier
distr

Storage and
Proc

processing ?
? ? Seeds

s
input

Crop
insurance
Soil
Spe

treatment
rs

Since tomorrow’s farmers

cia

plie

need to deal with higher

lize

up

Weather
complexity and a rapidly
di

rs

protection Fertilizers
ns

ize

and pesticides growing amount of prod-

ur

il
rt

ce
an

uct and service offerings

fe

an
an
d

d
da ls from different input pro-
ta
pr ica
ov i hem viders along their value
der oc
Weather s Agr Bio-chemicals chain, they will strive for
prediction innovators
simple, ease-to-use, com-
innovators
plexity-reducing products,
offered as integrated end-
to-end solutions.

11
12
 From Agriculture to AgTech

Planting the seeds: five major innovation fields

Startups, cross-industry innovators, and supportive venture capital
firms are increasingly active in five major innovation fields

Bio-chemicals,
bio-energy and
bio-materials
startups

Crop efficiency Foodtech and

technology artificial meat
startups startups
po t en ti al o f gr o
vest wth
o har op
st po
t i on rt
un
va it
no GOs, Equi
pm i
ks, N rs OEM ent
n ato

es
In

Ba egul s
r

Contained
tor nd

Se

Rerouting
distr ors a

farming
ed
s

value chains
startups
sup

startups
ibu
ss
Proce

pliers

Not only start-

Spe nd d

ups are finding

li e d
pp an
rs
cia at
a

solutions to
s u c a ls
li z a

harvest growth
i
ed

i
pr nsu
m

e
ov ran ch er opportunities,
ro
ide ce A g r t il i z
rs fe as existing
Traditional Agrochemical agrochemical
venture corporate players and
capital firms venture capital
cross-industry
innovators also
join the field.

Cross-industry
innovators 13
Planting the seeds: creating new value zones
Innovators are leveraging disruption drivers, but value zones
are no more than skimmed on the surface

Disruption driver No. 1:

Trends

Disruption driver No. 2:

Accelerators Growing Societal Climate Agricultural
Urbanization
Population Changes Change Technology

New Consumer Preferences 1 Personalization

Foodtech and Contained
artificial meat farming
2 Health Awareness

3 On-demand availability

4 Sustainability
Bio-chemicals,
bio-energy
Emerging Technologies 5 Biotechnology

6 Advanced manufacture

7 Autonomous vehicles
Contained
8 Connectivity
farming

Changing Configurations 9 Ecosystem

10 Big data and analytics

Crop efficiency
technology
11 Vertical integration

14
 From Agriculture to AgTech

Value Chain Globalized Internat.

Biotechnology Servicization
Integration Trade Regulation

Rerouting
value chains

Bio-chemicals,
bio-energy

Rerouting The mapping of the five identified in-

value chains novation fields with disruption drivers
depicts strong value zones into which
new and existing agricultural players
can tap with smart solutions to cap-
ture value and growth potential.

Source: Monitor Deloitte Research 15

Planting the seeds: how innovators capture value
Smart agricultural technology – "AgTech" - innovators harvest these
value zones by building simple, customer-centric solutions

Identified innovation fields Innovators’ solutions to capture value zones

Rerouting value chains

• Reducing inefficiencies along the value chain
• Includes farm2consumers, waste reduction tech
and other technologies
Crop efficiency technology
• Increasing yields at decreased input
• Includes satellite imaging, drones, robotics, artificial
intelligence, big data, irrigation tech and soil tech
Meal kit delivery, off-farm delivery, e-groceries,
crop waste reuse, food waste reuse and reduc-
tion, shelf-life enhancing and monitoring
Agricultural data analytics, robots, drones, sensors, IoT mon-
itoring, farm equipment sharing, efficient irrigation systems,
soil and crop tech, smart phenotyping, satellite imagery

Bio-chemicals and bio-energy

• Ongoing trend to biological production technologies Biologically produced agrochemicals, microbe-based bio-en-
• Includes bio-energy production, gineering, bio-crop and –seed, bio-plastics, bio-energy, bio-
bio-chemical and bio-materials gas plant technology

Foodtech and artificial meat

• Fairly new trends towards replacing meat Plant-based meat and egg substitution,
• Includes artificial meat and other sustainable sustainable protein, genome engineering,
protein technology as well as foodtech livestock genetics, macronutrient products

Contained farming
• Newest investment trend in the AgTech sector Smart indoor agriculture, vertical farming, con-
• Vertical farming is largely focused on greenhouse tained farming data and tech platforms, LED light-
and indoor farming technologies, hydroponics, etc. ing, aqua- and hydroponics

The AgTech disruption is taking place in multiple innovation fields simultaneously. In-
novators are offering specialized, but simple, often fully integrated solutions ranging
from direct delivery services through satellite imagery to automated indoor farming.

16 Source: Monitor Deloitte Research

 1559From Agriculture to AgTech
1264 1355
1188
852 908
780 788
652

Fertilizing the revolution: venture capital's role

Venture capital investment and successful exits are fertilizing the
AgTech revolution, which follows the disruptive growth of FinTech

Total, FinTech, and AgTech venture capital investment 2015 in billion USD

2013: Monsanto acquires

big data innovator The Climate CAGR
Corporation $ 1.0bn 2010-2015
150 2012: BASF acquires seed
treatment firm Becker
125 Underwood $ 1.0bn

100 +26% p.a.

2012: Bayer acquires
bio-pesticides producer
75 AgraQuest $ 0.4bn

50

40

30
149.0
20

10 87.0 +65% p.a.

56.0 50.0 54.0

5 47.0

4
22.0
13.0
3 +63% p.a.
5.0
4,6
2

3.0 3.0
1 2.0 2.0 2.4
1,6
0.4 0,5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Global venture capital investment FinTech investment AgTech investment  

Note: FinTech refers to startups in the finance and banking industry,

while AgTech refers to startups in the agricultural industry

Source: United Nations; FAO, Syngenta, Monitor Deloitte research 17

Fertilizing the revolution: where it is blooming
While non-US investors are still focused on the mature food
e-commerce sector, AgTech is taking off in the US, Israel and China

0,1

US AgTech venture capital raised Non-US AgTech venture capital raised

0,3
Blue Apron 0,3 HelloFresh (E and F)
135 211

Impossible Foods Womai

108 0,5 200
1,9
Planet Labs Grofers
93 120

Munchery 85 Jiuxian
80

3D Robotics DJI 75
64
1,5

Rerouting
value chains

Crop efficiency
technology
$2.4bn
$0.6bn $0.5bn
Bio-chemicals
and bio-energy

Foodtech and
Starting from the US, the investment focus is shifting towards countries like Is-
artificial meat
rael, China and India, with investors increasingly diversifying their portfolios
and digging into new innovation fields along the way.
Contained
farming

18 Source: Monitor Deloitte Research, AgFunder

 Growing population
The world’s population will
reach 10bn in 2050 From Agriculture to AgTech

Fertilizing the revolution: why you should invest

The fourth agricultural revolution is taking on steam - three reasons why now is
the right time to invest and lead the disruption

1. 2. 3.
Unseen, Low-hanging Huge market
rapid growth fruit potential

AgTech inves ment is Existing players Tapping into

not yet on tradition- invest 10-15 years agricultural growth
al investors’ radar, and up to $250 mil- opportunities, inves-
and early investors lion per product tors can take a share
can participate in the launch, while start- in the 3+ trillion USD
growth of 63% CAGR ups will go for lean, global agricultural
from 2010-2015. low CAPEX solutions. market.

Tapping into agricultural

AgTech investment is not
yet on traditional investors’
radar, and early investors can
participate in the growth of
63% CAGR from 2010-2015.
Existing players invest 10-15
years and up to $250 million
per product launch, while
startups will go for lean,
low CAPEX solutions.
growth opportunities,
investors can take a share
in the 3+ trillion USD global
agricultural market.

19
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20
 From Agriculture to AgTech

Monitor Deloitte M&A services

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21
Monitor Deloitte industry expertise
Our deep industry understanding and our Thought Leadership in AgriScience
enable us to successfully address your strategic needs

The food value Agribusiness Out- Deloitte Africa

chain, a challenge look 2015 Agribusiness Unit -
for the next century Prosper and Grow

Building Partnerships for Sustainable Ag- Agriculture and From Dirt to Data- A capabilities-
riculture and Food Security Chemistry – a vital, The second green based approach to
World Economic Forum in Collaboration complicated bond revolution and the productive and
with Deloitte (led by Shay Eliaz) Internet of Things innovative R&D

22 Source: IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Business Consulting Services 2014 Vendor Assessment by
Cushing Anderson, February 2014, IDC. Reproduced under license.

Your Contacts at Monitor Deloitte
Authors
Thierry Laugerette
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Tel: +49 89 29036 8367
tlaugerette@deloitte.de
Franziska Stöckel
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Tel: +49 151 5800 4472
fstoeckel@deloitte.de
Global experts
Shay Eliaz
North America
Tel: +1 646 756 9237
seliaz@deloitte.com
Jia Ming Li
Asia Pacific
Tel: +86 137 6198 8656
jiamli@deloitte.com.cn
Susanne Uhlmann
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Phone: +49 172 2101 466
suhlmann@deloitte.de
Barbara Violin
Brazil
Phone: +11 96398 1496
bviolin@deloitte.com
From Agriculture to AgTech
Acknowledgements
This piece of Monitor Deloitte Thought
Leadership was written in a cross-conti-
nental effort to condense knowledge from
many different industries to analyze and
understand the future development of ag-
riculture. Thierry Laugerette and Franzis-
ka Stöckel as authors would like to thank
Rudolf Bauer, Anshul Goswami, Shay Eli-
az, Wolfgang Falter, Jim Guill, Carlton Jones,
Alexis Lemeillet, Jia Ming Li, James Manoc-
chi, Susanne Uhlmann, John Vink and Yann
Cohen for their valuable contributions.
The authors also wish to thank Christian
Schmied for assembling the research to
produce this Point of View on the transfor-
mation from agriculture to AgTech.
23
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Issue 8/2016