BASIC

PROBABILITY

Dr Nguyen Thi Van Anh

Department of Biotechnology-Pharmacology
University of Science and Technology of Hanoi
 CONTENTS

•  IntroducDon – basic concepts

•  Elementary properDes of probability

•  CalculaDng the probability of an event

 INTRODUCTION
ü  People use the term probability many times each day.

Example: - physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance of

surviving a certain operation.

- Another physician may say that she is 95% certain that

a patient has a particular disease

ü  More convenient to express probabilities as fractions

ü  The probability of the occurrence of some event is measured

by a number between 0 and 1
 1. Basic concepts

ü  An experiment: the process by which an observation (or

measurement) is obtained.

ü  An outcome E: each possible results of an actual/

conceptual experiment.

-  Each experiment terminates with an outcome

-  Sometimes called a sample point or elementary event

 1. Basic concepts
ü  An event: a set of outcome, usually denoted by a capital letter
(A…).
-  When an experiment is performed, a particular event either
happens, or it doesn’t!

ü The sample space S: the set of all possible outcomes

-  Also called the certain event

ü The null event Ø: the set consisting no outcomes

- Also called impossible event
 1. Basic concepts
ü  The union of events A and B: event that A or/and B occurs
AUB

ü  The intersection of events A and B: event that A occurs and B occurs

A∩B

ü  The complement of an event A: , A’, AC the set consisting no

outcomes

ü  The difference of event A and B (A – B):

The event occurs that if A occurs but B does not occurs
A – B = A ∩ B’
Experiments and Events
•  Experiment: Record an age
–  A: person is 30 years old
–  B: person is older than 65

•  Experiment: Toss a die

–  A: observe an odd number
–  B: observe a number greater than 2
 Basic Concepts
•  Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one
event occurs, the other cannot, and vice versa.

• Experiment: Toss a die

Not Mutually
– A: observe an odd number Exclusive
– B: observe a number greater than 2

– C: observe a 6 Mutually
B and C?
B and D?
– D: observe a 3 Exclusive
Basic Concepts
 2. ProperDes of probability
An experiment has n mutually exclusive events (outcomes):

E1, E2,…, En

•  P(Ei) ≥ 0

•  P(E1) + P(E2) +…+ P(En) = 1

•  P(Ei + Ej) = P(Ei) + P(Ej)

 QUIZ

1) Which of the following is an experiment?

A.  Tossing a coin

B.  Rolling a single 6-sided die

C.  Choosing a marble from a jar

D.  All of the above

 QUIZ

2) Which of the following is an outcome?

A.  Rolling a pair of dice

B.  Choosing a marble from a jar

C.  Rolling a 4 (from rolling a six-sided die)

D.  None of the above

 QUIZ
3)  Which of the following experiments does not have
equally likely outcomes?

A.  Choose a number at random from 1 to 10

B.  Toss a coin

C.  Choose a letter at random from the word SCHOOL

D.  None of the above

 QUIZ
4)  A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the
probability of choosing an odd number

A.  1/11

B.  5/11

C.  6/11

D.  None of the above

 QUIZ
5. Toss a die and observe the number that appears facing up. A: an
event that an even number occurs, B: an event that a prime number
occurs. Please write:
a)  Sample space?
b)  Outcome?
c)  Event A, Event B?
d)  A U B?

e)  A ∩ B?

f)  Complement A’?

g)  A – B?
3. CalculaDng probability
 CalculaDng probability
Probability of an event A is the ratio of the favorable outcomes to
the total number of possible outcomes, provided they are equally
likely

P(A) = n/N

N: number of possible outcomes, n: number of favorable outcomes

Suppose a person is picked at random from this sample. What is
the probability that this person will be 18 years old or younger?
 3.1. Conditional probability

The conditional probability of an event B, in relation to event A, is

the probability that event B will occur given the knowledge that
event A already occurred.
 Example 1
Toss a fair coin twice. P(A/B) = ?, P(A/not B) = ?
–  A: head on second toss
–  B: head on first toss

P(A|B) = ½
P(A|not B) = ½

HH 1/4
P(A) does not
HT 1/4
change, whether A and B are
independent! 1/4
B happens or TH

not… TT 1/4
 Example 2
A bowl contains five M&Ms®, two red and three blue. Randomly
select two candies, and define:
–  A: second candy is red.
–  B: first candy is blue. P(A/B) = ?, P(A/not B) = ?

m P(A|B) =P(2nd red|1st blue)= 2/4 = 1/2

m m
P(A|not B) = P(2nd red|1st red) = 1/4
m m
P(A) does change,
depending on A and B are
whether B happens dependent!
or not…
 3.2. Joint probability

A statistical measure where the likelihood of two events

occurring together and at the same point in time are calculated

Notation: P(A ∩ B) or P (A, B)

 Dependent and Independent events

ü  2 events A and B are independent if the (non)occurrence of

one event has no effect on the (non)occurrence of the other.

ü  2 events A and B are dependent if the (non)occurrence of

one event affects the (non)occurrence of the other.
 Dependent and Independent events

Two events A and B are independent if and

only if
P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)
Otherwise, they are dependent.
 The MulDplicaDve Rule
A probability may be computed from other probabilities

•  For any two events, A and B, the probability that both A and B
occur (intersection of A and B) is

•  If the events A and B are independent, then the probability that

both A and B occur is

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)

Definition of conditional probability
 Example 3
In a certain population, 10% of the people can be
classified as being high risk for a heart attack. Three people are
randomly selected from this population. What is the probability
that exactly one of the three is high risk?

Define H: high risk N: not high risk

P(exactly one high risk) = P(HNN) + P(NHN) + P(NNH)

= P(H)P(N)P(N) + P(N)P(H)P(N) + P(N)P(N)P(H)
= (.1)(.9)(.9) + (.9)(.1)(.9) + (.9)(.9)(.1)= 3(.1)(.9)2 = .243
 Example 4
Suppose we have additional information in the
previous example. We know that only 49% of the population are
female. Also, of the female patients, 8% are high risk.
A single person is selected at random.
What is the probability that it is a high risk female?

Define H: high risk F: female

From the example, P(F) = .49 and P(H|F) = .08.
Use the MulDplicaDve Rule:
P(high risk female) = P(H∩F)
= P(F)P(H|F) =.49(.08) = .0392
 The addiDon rule
•  If 2 events A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability
of the occurrence of either one or the other is equal to the sum of
their individual probabilities:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

•  If 2 events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, the

probability of the occurrence of either one or the other is given by
the following formula:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

AddiDon and mulDplicaDon rule
Example
a)

b)

Since E and B are independent events: P(E/B) = P(E)

Complementary events
 3.3. Marginal probability
•  The probability of a single event A, P (A), without any
consideration of any other events

•  Can be computed from other mutually exclusive events

B1, B2,…, Bk are mutually exclusive and collectively exhautive events

Events are called collectively exhaustive if the list of outcome

includes all possible outcomes
Summary of probabiliDes
 Exercises
Ex1. Two colored dice (one yellow, one blue) are rolled .

a)  What is probability of rolling two sixes?

b)  What is probability of rolling a six at second toss, knowing the

first toss is a six?

SoluDon:
A: first toss is a six, B: second toss is a six
A and B are independent events

a)  P(AΠB) = P(A) x P(B) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

b) P(B/A) = P(B) = 1/6

 Exercises
Ex2. At a school, there are 1200 pupils, 250 like maths, 150 like history,
and 40 like both maths and history. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen student who likes math, likes history?

SoluDon: Find a probability that a paDent like history,

given that the paDent like Math.

A: student likes history

B: student likes math

P(A/B)= P(AΠB)/P(B)
P(AΠB) = 40/1200 P(B) = 250/1200
P(A/B) = 40/250 = 16%