Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Systems Archetypes - Intervention PDF
Systems Archetypes - Intervention PDF
SYSTEMS
ARCHETYPES I
Diagnosing Systemic Issues and
Designing High-Leverage Interventions
2 BY DANIEL H. KIM
T H E T O O L B O X R E P R I N T S E R I E S
ISBN 1-883823-00-5
2008
2
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Introduction 2
A Palette of Systems Thinking Tools 4
Systems Archetypes at a Glance 6
Organizational Addictions: Breaking the Habit 8
Balancing Loops with Delays: Teeter-Tottering on Seesaws 10
“Drifting Goals”: The “Boiled Frog” Syndrome 12
“Escalation”: The Dynamics of Insecurity 14
“Fixes That Fail”: Oiling the Squeaky Wheel—Again and Again 16
“Growth and Underinvestment”: Is Your Company Playing with
a Wooden Racket? 18
“Limits to Success”: When the “Best of Times” Becomes the
“Worst of Times” 20
“Shifting the Burden”: The “Helen Keller” Loops 22
“Success to the Successful”: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies 24
“Tragedy of the Commons”: All for One and None for All 26
Index to The Systems Thinker 28
About the Toolbox Reprint Series 28
Pegasus Publications 29
3
I N T R O D U C T I O N
The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking
we were at when we created them.”
—Albert Einstein
identify similar dynamics occurring in your own organization. Often, an systemic structure
event that is seen as a problem symptom can be the starting point. This
may lead you to trace out the pattern of behavior of similar events over a patterns of behavior
period of time. The archetype can then help you identify the systemic struc-
tures that are responsible. High-leverage interventions often become clear
events
once the appropriate archetype is identified.
Daniel H. Kim
Waltham, MA
P.S. We’d like to hear of your experiences as you apply the archetypes to your
own business issues. Fax us at (781) 894-7175 or send a note to Pegasus
Communications, One Moody Street, Waltham, MA 02453-5339.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The systems archetypes included in this series have been developed over the years
through the efforts of many system dynamics, including Peter Senge, Michael
Goodman and Jennifer Kemeny of Innovation Associates, as well as John Sterman,
Ernst Diehl, and Christian Kampmann of the MIT System Dynamics Group. The
use of the term “archetype” was first coined by Peter Senge in The Fifth Discipline:
The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (Doubleday, 1990). The Toolbox
Reprint Series: Systems Archetypes was compiled and edited by Kellie Wardman
O’Reilly. Colleen P. Lannon provided editorial support for the original articles.
adds to Y.
+ Level o Level –
Gap Gap include in the diagram
s +
o A causal link between two variables,
_ where a change in X causes a change
Actual B Adjust- Actual B Adjust- flow regulator
Level ments Level ments
X subtracts from Y.
s +
Delay
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 3
T O O L B O X
A PA L E T T E O F S Y S T E M S T H I N K I N G T O O L S
here is a full array of systems factors, which can in turn have sub sub- the appropriate archetype. They serve
T thinking tools that you can think factors. Many layers of nesting, how- as a starting point from which one can
of in the same way as a painter views ever, may be a sign that one of the build a clearer articulation of a business
colors—many shades can be created sub-factors should be turned into a story or issue. Specific archetypes
out of three primary colors, but having major factor. include: “Drifting Goals,” “Shifting the
a full range of ready-made colors Burden,” “Limits to Success,” “Success
makes painting much easier. DYNAMIC THINKING to the Successful,” “Fixes That Fail,”
There are at least 10 distinct types TOOLS “Tragedy of the Commons,” “Growth
of systems thinking tools (a full-page Behavior Over Time (BOT) Diagrams and Underinvestment,” and
summary diagram appears on the fac- are more than simple line projections— “Escalation” (see “Systems Archetypes
ing page). They fall under four broad they capture the dynamic relationships at a Glance,” p. 6).
categories: brainstorming tools, among variables. For example, say we
dynamic thinking tools, structural were trying to project the relationship STRUCTURAL THINKING
thinking tools, and computer-based between sales, inventory, and produc- TOOLS
tools. Although each of the tools is tion. If sales jump 20 percent, produc- Graphical Function Diagrams,
designed to stand alone, they also build tion cannot jump instantaneously to the Structure-Behavior Pairs, and Policy
upon one another and can be used in new sales number. In addition, inven- Structure Diagrams can be viewed as
combination to achieve deeper insights tory must drop below its previous level the building blocks for computer
into dynamic behavior. while production catches up with sales. models. Graphical Functions are use-
By sketching out the behavior of differ- ful for clarifying nonlinear relation-
BRAINSTORMING TOOLS ent variables on the same graph, we can ships between variables. They are
The Double-Q (QQ) Diagram is based gain a more explicit understanding of particularly helpful for quantifying
on what is commonly known as a fish- how these variables interrelate. the effects of variables that are diffi-
bone or cause-and-effect diagram. The Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) pro- cult to measure, such as morale or
Qs stand for qualitative and quantita- vide a useful way to represent dynamic time pressure. Structure-Behavior
tive, and the technique is designed to interrelationships. CLDs make explicit Pairs link a specific structure with its
help participants begin to see the one’s understanding of a system’s struc- corresponding behavior. Policy
whole system. During a structured ture, provide a visual representation to Structure Diagrams represent the pro-
brainstorming session with the QQ help communicate that understanding, cesses that drive policies. In a sense,
diagram, both sides of an issue remain and capture complex systems in a suc- when we use these tools we are mov-
equally visible and properly balanced, cinct form. CLDs can be combined ing from painting on canvas to sculpt-
avoiding a “top-heavy” perspective. with BOTs to form structure-behavior ing three-dimensional figures.
The diagram also provides a visual pairs, which provide a rich framework
map of the key factors involved. Once for describing complex dynamic phe- COMPUTER-BASED TOOLS
those factors are pinpointed, Behavior nomena. CLDs are the systems This class of tools, including computer
Over Time Diagrams and/or Causal thinker’s equivalent of the painter’s pri- models, management flight simulators,
Loop Diagrams can be used to explore mary colors. and learning laboratories, demands the
how they interact. System Archetypes is the name given highest level of technical proficiency to
A QQ diagram begins with a heavy to certain common dynamics that seem create. On the other hand, very little
horizontal arrow that points to the to recur in many different settings. advance training is required to use
issue being addressed. Major “hard” These archetypes, consisting of various them once they are developed. •
(quantitative) factors branch off along combinations of balancing and reinforc-
the top and “soft” (qualitative) factors ing loops, are the systems thinker’s Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide,
part of the Toolbox Reprint Series, is organized around
run along the bottom. Arrows leading “paint-by-numbers” set—users can take this palette of systems thinking tools.
off of the major factors represent sub- real-world examples and fit them into
f(x)
A
B
Time x
Can be used to graph the behavior of Captures the way in which one variable Lets you translate all relationships
variables over time and gain insights into affects another, by plotting the relation- identified as relevant into mathematical
any interrelationships between them. ship between the two over the full range equations. You can then run policy
(BOT diagrams are also known as of relevant values. analyses through multiple simulations.
reference mode diagrams.)
COCKPIT
s B DECISION INFO
o STOCK
HIRING
STOCK
R C
B HIRING
s
A
s Time
Reflection
Experimentation
Helps you recognize common system A conceptual map of the decision-making A manager’s practice field. Is equivalent
behavior patterns such as “Drifting process embedded in the organization. to a sports team’s experience, which
Goals,” “Shifting the Burden,” “Limits to Focuses on the factors that are weighed blends active experimentation with
Growth,” “Fixes That Fail,” and so on— for each decision, and can be used to reflection and discussion. Uses all the
all the compelling, recurring “stories” of build a library of generic structures. systems thinking tools, from behavior
organizational dynamics. over time diagrams to MFSs.
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 5
T O O L B O X
S Y S T E M S A R C H E T Y P E S AT A G L A N C E
Escalation In the “Escalation” archetype, one To break and escalation structure, ask the
party (A) takes actions that are per- following questions:
ceived by the other as a threat. The • What is the relative measure that pits
other party (B) responds in a similar one party against the other and can
s A’s Result B’s Result s
s o manner, increasing the threat to A and you change it?
Activity
B1 Quality of A’s Position B2
Activity resulting in more threatening actions • What are the significant delays in the
by A Relative to B’s by B
s
by A. The reinforcing loop is traced system that may distort the true nature
s
Threat
o s
Threat out by following the outline of the fig- of the threat?
to A to B
ure-8 produced by the two balancing • What are the deep-rooted assumptions
loops. (See Toolbox, November 1991.) that lie beneath the actions taken in
response to the threat?
Fixes That Fail In a “Fixes That Fail” situation, a • Breaking a “Fixes that Fail” cycle usu-
problem symptom cries out for resolu- ally requires acknowledging that the
s
tion. A solution is quickly imple- fix is merely alleviating a symptom,
Problem
Fix
mented that alleviates the symptom and making a commitment to solve
Symptom B1
(B1), but the unintended consequences the real problem now.
o
s of the “fix” exacerbate the problem • A two-pronged attack of applying
De (R1). Over time (right), the problem solution will help ensure that you
R2 lay
Unintended symptom returns to its previous level don’t get caught in a perpetual cycle of
Consequence s
or becomes worse. (See Toolbox, solving yesterdays “solutions.”
November 1990).
Growth and Underinvestment In a “Growth and Underinvestment” • Dig into the assumptions which drive
s s archetype, growth approaches a limit capacity investment decisions. If past
Growth
Demand
that can be eliminated or pushed into performance dominates as a consider-
Effort R1 B2
s
the future if capacity investments are ation, try to balance that perspective
Performance
o Standard made. Instead, performance standards with a fresh look at demand and the
Performance
s
o s are lowered to justify underinvestment, factors that drive its growth.
Capacity B3 Perceived Need leading to lower performance which • If there is potential for growth, build
to Invest
s De further justifies underinvestment. capacity in anticipation of future
lay lay
De
Investment s (See Toolbox, June/July 1992.) demand.
in Capacity
Shifting the Burden/Addiction In a “Shifting the Burden,” a problem is • Problem symptoms are usually easier
“solved” by applying a symptomatic than the other elements of the structure.
External solution (B1) which diverts attention • If the side-effect has become the prob-
Intervention s away from more fundamental solutions lem, you may be dealing with an
B1 (R1). (See Toolbox, September 1990). In “Addiction” structure.
s an “Addiction” structure, a “Shifting • Whether a solution is “symptomatic” or
o Problem Dependence
Symptom R3 on External the Burden” degrades into an addictive “fundamental” often depends on one‘s
o
Intervention pattern in which the side-effect gets so perspective. Explore the problem from
Dela
y B2 entrenched that it overwhelms the orig- differing perspective in order to come to
s
Internal inal problem symptom. (See Toolbox, a more comprehensive understanding of
Solution o April 1992.) what the fundamental solution may be.
Success to the Successful In a “Success to the Successful” • Look for reasons why the system was
archetype, if one person or group (A) is set up to create just one “winner.”
given more resources, it has a higher • Chop off one half of the archetype by
likelihood of succeeding than B focusing efforts and resources on one
Success s o Success
of A of B (assuming they are equally capable). group, rather than creating a “winner-
s Allocation to A s The initial success justifies devoting take-all” competition.
R1 Instead of B
R2
more resources, its success diminishes, • Find ways to make teams collaborators
Resources Resources rather than competitors.
to A
s o to B
further justifying more resource alloca-
tions to A (R2). See Toolbox, March • Identify goals or objectives that define
1992.) success at a level higher than the indi-
vidual players A and B.
Tragedy of the Commons In “Tragedy of the Commons” struc- • Effective solutions for“Tragedy of the
s
Net Gains
for A s ture, each person pursues actions Commons” scenario never lie at the
which are individually beneficial (R1 individual level.
R1 B5
and R2). If the amount of activity • Ask questions such as: “What are the
s A’s o grows too large for the system to sup- incentives for individuals to persist in
Activity
s
Resource
Limit
port, however, the “commons” their actions?” “Can the long-term col-
R3
Total Gain per becomes experiences diminishing ben- lective loss be made more real and
Individual
y
Activity
la
o s
efits (B1 and B2). (See Toolbox, August immediate to the individual actors?”
De
Activity
s R4
B’s
1991.) • Find ways to reconcile short-term
s Activity o cumulative consequences. A governing
R2
R2 B6
body that is chartered with the sustain-
ability of the resources limit can help.
Net Gains s
for B
s
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 7
T O O L B O X
O R G A N I Z AT I O N A L A D D I C T I O N S :
BREAKING THE HABIT
t’s 6:00 A.M. on a Monday morn- ADDICTION tomatic solution has a long-term side
I ing. The alarm clock blares, For most of us, the word “addiction” effect that diverts attention away from
jolting you out of bed. You shuffle conjures up images of alcoholism and the more fundamental solution to the
down to the kitchen and grab a cup of drug abuse or more “acceptable” habits problem (see “Addiction”).
fresh coffee. A few gulps and . . . ahh. such as coffee drinking—dependencies What makes the “Addiction”
Your eyes start to open; the fog begins which are rooted in physical and neu- archetype special is the nature of the
to clear. rological processes. It is not usually side-effect. In an “Addiction” structure,
10:30 A.M.—time for the weekly viewed as a social or organizational a “Shifting the Burden” situation
staff meeting. “I gotta have something phenomena. But from a systemic per- degrades into an addictive pattern in
to keep me awake through this one,” spective, addiction is a very generic which the side-effect gets so entrenched
you think to yourself as you grab a cup structure that is quite prevalent in both that it overwhelms the original prob-
of coffee and head into the conference social and organizational settings. lem symptom—the addiction becomes
room. As a systemic structure, the “the problem.”
By 3:30 P.M. you start to feel that “Addiction” archetype is a special case With coffee drinking, the problem
mid-afternoon energy low, so you of “Shifting the Burden” (see “Shifting symptom usually is that you feel tired
head down toward the crowded coffee the Burden: The Helen Keller Loops,” (see “Caffeine Addiction”). When you
machine for another cup. “I really p. 21). “Shifting the Burden” usually drink a cup of coffee, the caffeine raises
gotta cut down on this stuff,” you starts with a problem symptom that your metabolism, stimulating the body
comment to the guy behind you in cries out for attention. The solution and making the mind more alert. But
line. He nods. “I’m a five-cup-a-day that is most obvious and easy to imple- in doing this, it forces your body to
guy,” he confesses. “I just can’t give it ment usually relieves the problem deplete its reserves of energy faster
up.” symptom very quickly. But the symp- than usual. When the effects of the caf-
feine wear off in a few hours, you have
A D D I C T I O N
even less energy than before. You feel
C A F F E I N E A D D I C T I O N
sluggish again and reach for another
cup of coffee to get a jump start. Over
time, your body begins to rely on the
External Use of
Intervention s Caffeine
caffeine at regular intervals in order to
o
regulate your energy and metabolism.
B1
B4
s O R G A N I Z AT I O N A L
s
o Problem Dependence ADDICTIONS
Symptom R3 on External s Energy Dependency
o Level R6
Intervention s on Caffeine
Dela to Stay Alert
In organizational settings, addiction
y B2 Dela
y
can take the form of a dependence on
s B5
Internal
certain policies, procedures, depart-
Solution o o ments, or individuals. The way we
Energy-Enhancing
the original problem. booster (R6). A common yet very subtle example of
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 9
T O O L B O X
B A L A N C I N G L O O P S W I T H D E L AY S :
T E E T E R - T O T T E R I N G O N S E E S AW S
ost of us have played on a see- The goal of a seesaw ride is to side of the seesaw, an increase in price
M saw at one time or another and always keep things in a state of imbal- provides a profit incentive for firms to
can recall the up-and-down motion as ance (it would be pretty boring to sit produce more. Of course, it takes time
the momentum shifted from one end on a perfectly balanced one). But the for firms to expand. The length of the
to the other. The more equal the goal in the marketplace is exactly the delay depends on how close they
weights of both people, the smoother opposite—to bring supply in balance already are to full capacity and how
the ride. At a very basic level, a free with demand. Unfortunately, the sup- quickly they can add new capacity to
market economy is a lot like a seesaw ply and demand balancing process produce more. Hiring new workers
with supply at one end and demand feels a lot more like a seesaw ride than may take only a few days, while
on the other end. Prices indicate the a smooth adjustment to a stable equi- obtaining additional capital equipment
imbalance between the two, like a nee- librium. As shown in “Supply and or factory floor space may take
dle positioned at the pivot point of the Demand,” the dynamics of this adjust- months or even years. While firms are
seesaw. ment process are produced by two bal- making supply adjustments, the gap
ancing loops that between supply and demand widens
S U P P LY A ND D E M A N D try to stabilize on a and price goes even higher. The
particular price. But higher price spurs companies to
Price the process is com- increase their production plans even
plicated by the pres- more.
Lo Hi ence of significant As supply eventually expands and
nd delays. catches up with demand, price begins
Dema
to fall. By this time, firms have over-
BALANCING expanded their production capacity
Supply S U P P LY A N D and supply overshoots demand, caus-
DEMAND ing price to fall. When the price falls
lay
o s De Tracing through low enough, the product becomes
the loops, you can more attractive again and demand
Supply B1 Price B2 Demand see that if demand picks up—starting the cycle all over again.
s o
rises, price tends to
lay go up (all else AIRPLANES ON SEESAWS
De
remaining the The supply-and-demand seesaw is
same), and as price played out in all but the most tightly
goes up, demand regulated markets. A good example of
tends to go down. If this balancing act was described in a
Demand
there is enough Forbes article titled “Fasten Seat Belts,
inventory or capac- Please” (April 2, 1990), about airplane
Supply ity in the system to leasing companies.
absorb the increased Leasing companies, which account
demand, prices may for roughly 20 percent of all commer-
Time not go up immedi- cial jet aircraft currently on order,
A free market economy is a lot like a seesaw with supply at one end ately. As demand enjoy enormous profits during booms
and demand on the other. The dynamics that result from trying to bal- outstrips supply, in air travel. One carrier alone once
ance supply and demand are produced by two balancing loops that try
to stabilize on a particular price. Due to presence of significant delays,
however, price will put in an order to lease 500 planes.
a cycle of overshoot and collapse occurs.
rise. Based on leasing and buying rates in
On the supply the industry, the total number of air-
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 11
T O O L B O X
“DRIFTING GOALS”:
THE “BOILED FROG” SYNDROME
t’s becoming an old story in the ing backlogs and delivery delays by usually take time.
I systems thinking field: If you just getting the product “out the In the frog’s case, the goal is a
drop a frog into a pot of boiling water, door.” desired body temperature. If the gap
he will immediately hop out and save Making adjustments to initial goals between this desired temperature and
himself. But, if you put him in a pot of is not inherently wrong. Sticking to the the water temperature is large, the
lukewarm water and slowly turn up original goal purely for its own sake is frog will immediately take a corrective
the heat, something different happens. as misdirected as changing the goal at action and jump out of the water. But,
The frog swims around contentedly every whim. But distinguishing if the temperature increases gradually,
for a while, even enjoying the balmy between legitimate goal adjustments the gap between his ideal temperature
water. As the temperature rises, how- and the “Drifting Goals” structure can and the water temperature widens
ever, he becomes more groggy and be very difficult—it is easy to rational- slowly. As this happens, the frog’s per-
lethargic until, finally, he dies. ize adjustments as “needed corrections.” ceived desired temperature may grad-
The frog may not have known it, ually drift higher. This closes the gap
but he was a victim of a drifting goals THE BOILED FROG between desired and actual tempera-
scenario. “Drifting Goals” is a struc- STRUCTURE ture, negating the need to take correc-
ture that leads to poorer and poorer The archetype works in the following tive action until it is too late.
performance and/or lower and lower manner (see “‘Drifting Goals’ The reason drifting goals is labeled
expectations (or in the frog’s case, Template” diagram). There is a cer- the “boiled frog” syndrome is that
higher and higher temperature). In a tain goal—implicit or explicit—which goals, like the frog’s ideal temperature,
company setting, this structure may is compared to the current state of tend to drift slowly and usually go un-
take the form of slipped delivery affairs. If a gap persists, corrective noticed. Similar to the frog that doesn’t
schedules, where a once-intolerable actions are taken to improve the cur- recognize a gradual rise in tempera-
eight-week delivery delay becomes the rent state and bring it in line with the ture, organizations are often un-
accepted goal; or lower quality stan- goal. This forms the basic balancing alarmed by deteriorating performance
dards, as everyone focuses on decreas- loop (B1) at the heart of any system if it occurs over a long period of time.
that strives for equilibrium. A delay
between corrective action and actual BUDGET DEFICITS,
“ D R I F T I N G G O A L S ” DRIFTING GOALS
T E M P L AT E state represents the fact that results
may take from minutes to years to The federal budget deficit is a good
materialize, depending on the specific example of the “Drifting Goals”
o
situation. archetype at work (see “Budget
Pressure to Of course, there is more than one Deficit”). If there is a gap between the
Goal B2 Lower Goal
way to close the gap. In the “Drifting previously stated acceptable deficit
s Goals” archetype, a second balancing level and the actual deficit, it can be
s Crises
o GAP loop is driven by pressure to lower the closed by either reducing government
s goal. As the gap increases (or persists spending (B3) or increasing tax rev-
Actual B1 Corrective over a period of time), the pressure to enues (B4). Bipartisan compromises,
Action lower the goal increases. If the pres- however, have usually resulted in
s
sure is high and persistent, the goal increased government spending,
y
Dela
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 13
T O O L B O X
“ E S C A L AT I O N ” :
THE DYNAMICS OF INSECURITY
ave you ever been caught in a THE DYNAMICS OF the brink of nuclear war.
H situation where you felt that INSECURITY The crisis began with the discovery
things were going well beyond what At the heart of an escalation dynamic of offensive nuclear weapons being
you intended, but you felt powerless to are two (or more) parties, each of constructed in Cuba—contrary to
stop it? As a child, perhaps, in the whom feels threatened by the actions of repeated public assurances by the
playground at school—a classmate the other (see “‘Escalation’ Archetype Soviet chairman. The U.S. called for
makes a snide comment, and you and Price Wars”). Each side attempts complete dismantling and withdrawal
counter with a sharp retort. The next to keep things under control by man- of the missiles. The Soviets first
round of insults gets uglier and louder. aging its own balancing process. denied the existence of any such mis-
You each stick your neck out further Actions taken by A, for example, siles. Then they acknowledged the
and further with every remark. improve A’s result relative to B. This missiles but refused to remove them,
Classmates gather around and egg on decreases A’s feeling of threat, so A claiming they were defensive.
the escalation of hostilities. Pretty eases off its activities (B1). B, on the Kennedy responded by ordering a
soon, you are so far out on a limb that other hand, now feels threatened by naval blockade around Cuba to pre-
there is little else left to do but suc- A’s relative advantage and increases its vent more missiles from being
cumb to the chanting that has begun activities in order to improve its result shipped. Tensions ran high. The
all around you—“Fight! Fight! Fight!” over A (B2). The interaction of the Soviets pressed for accelerated con-
two parties trying struction of the missiles already in
to unilaterally Cuba. The United States massed over
“ESCALATION” ARCHETYPE
A N D P R I C E W A R S maintain control 200,000 troops in Florida to prepare
produces a rein- for an invasion.
forcing spiral in When a United States U2 recon-
B’s Result s
s A’s Result which nobody feels naissance plane was shot down over
s o
in control. Cuba, Kennedy’s advisors unani-
Activity by A B1 Results of A B2 Activity by B In school, a few mously proposed launching a retalia-
Relative to B
harsh words can tory strike. But Kennedy stopped
s s
quickly lead to a short. “It isn’t the first step that con-
o s
Threat to A Threat to B playground brawl. cerns me,” he said, “but both sides
In a more deadly escalating to the fourth and fifth step.
U.S. Arms Soviet Arms confrontation, the And we won’t go to the sixth because
s Stock Pile Stock Piles there [will be] no one around to do
s o s escalation structure
can lead to catas- so.” Had Kennedy not broken the
U.S. Arms Soviet Arms
Nuclear escalation structure at that juncture,
Production B3 Superiority of B4 Production trophic conse-
U.S. over Soviets quences. The the forces unleashed might have been
s s
Cuban Missile beyond anyone’s control to stop.
Threat o s Threat to
to U.S. Soviets
Crisis in October
D E - E S C A L AT I O N
In the “Escalation” archetype (top), one party rakes actions that are
of 1962, for exam-
perceived by the other as a threat. The other party responds in a like
ple, caught U.S. The Cuban missile crisis was one inci-
manner, increasing the threat to the first party, resulting in more
president Kennedy dent in a larger dynamic—the Cold
threatening actions by the first party. The reinforcing loop is traced out and Soviet chair- War. Although that particular crisis
by following the outline of the figure-8 produced by the balancing man Khrushchev was resolved, it did nothing to defuse
loops. In the case of the U.S./ Soviet arms race (bottom), each coun- the mutual distrust between the two
try felt threatened by the arms stockpile of the other, leading to mas-
in an escalation
sive buildups in both countries.
structure that led countries, so the arms race continued.
their countries to The balance of power shifted over
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 15
T O O L B O X
“ F I X E S T H AT FA I L ” : O I L I N G T H E
SQUEAKY WHEEL—AGAIN AND AGAIN...
ow many times have you heard have encased the wheels in rust. quence of repeatedly applying the
H the saying, “The squeaky wheel solution.
gets the oil”? Most people agree that BETTER BEFORE WORSE In the case of the squeaky wheel,
whoever or whatever makes the most In our search for a quick fix, we often the noise attracts our attention and we
“noise” grabs our attention and will rush into “solutions” without taking grab the nearest (easiest, most avail-
presumably be attended to first. The the time to understand the full impact able, previously used, organizationally
problem with following this adage is of our actions. One of the tricky things accepted, etc.) “fix” we can get our
that it leads to operating in a reactive about systems is that they usually hands on and apply it. In the short
mode, continually “fighting fires” point our attention toward short-term term, even water will act as a lubricant
rather than making fundamental fixes and away from fundamental and stop the squeaking. If we do not
improvements. solutions. know anything about oxidation, we
To make matters worse, in our In a typical “Fixes That Fail” situ- might assume that the water did, in
haste to grab the “oil,” we often mis- ation (see “‘Fixes That Fail’ fact, solve the squeaking problem. As
takenly pick up a can of water and Template”), a problem symptom cries the water evaporates and the metal
splash it on the squeaky wheel. The out (squeaks) for resolution. A solu- oxidizes, however, the wheel begins to
squeaking stops momentarily, only to tion is quickly implemented that alle- squeak again. So we reach for the
return more loudly as the air and water viates the symptom (B1). The relief is water again, since it worked the last
join forces to rust the joint. We can stay usually temporary, however, and the time.
very busy running about splashing symptom returns, often worse than Of course we all know that oil or
water on all the squeaky wheels. But before. This happens because there are grease, not water, should be used to
when there are finally no more unintended consequences of the solu- lubricate a squeaky wheel. But sup-
squeaks, we may discover that instead tion that unfold over a long period of pose the squeaky wheel is a customer
of having fixed all the problems, we time (R2) or as an accumulated conse- screaming for a product that is two
weeks late. How do we know whether
we are applying the oil or the water
“FIXES T H AT FAIL” T E M P L AT E
when we respond? Do we understand
enough about this situation’s “chemi-
“Fix” Applied
cal reaction” to take appropriate
s actions? Or, in our frenzy of fighting
Problem Symptom
Problem
fires and oiling squeaky wheels, are
Symptom B1 Fix we throwing oil on fires and applying
water to the wheels?
s o
De
lay EXPEDITING CUSTOMER
R2
ORDERS
Unintended s
Consequence Expediting customer orders, a com-
Time
mon practice in many manufacturing
firms, illustrates the “Fixes That Fail”
In a typical “Fixes That Fail” situation, a problem symptom cries out for resolution. A solution is
quickly implemented that alleviates the symptom (B1), but the unintended consequences of the
archetype. A large semiconductor
“fix” exacerbate the problem (R2). Over time (right), the problem symptom returns to its previ-
manufacturer, for example, is experi-
ous level or becomes worse (dotted line).
encing some production problems and
is running behind schedule on some
B3 Expedite
body else is expediting for company C. Late Orders Orders
The squeaky wheels are getting oiled, s o
Orders De
but the number of squeaking wheels is Delivered s la
y
rapidly increasing. As a result, the s
production line is continually being R4 Production-Line
Missed
disrupted—leading to more missed Delivery Dates Disruptions
delivery dates and more customer calls s
(R4). Time
NEW PRODUCT RELEASES Expediting a late order ensures that the order will be processed immediately, reducing the num-
ber of dissatisfied customers (B3). But the product line disruptions that can result will lead to
more missed delivery dates and, ultimately, more unhappy customers (R4).
Similarly, in a consumer electronics
company, when one new product-
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 17
T O O L B O X
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 19
T O O L B O X
I t was the best of times, it was improvements. The “best of times” for new production capacity or explore
the worst of times, it was the investing in resource development new markets.
age of wisdom, it was the age of fool- always seems like the “worst of times”
ishness,” wrote Charles Dickens in A for actually carrying out such plans, DIETS AND WEIGHT LOSS
Tale of Two Cities. Life often seems and vice-versa. Examples abound where rapid success
full of such paradoxes. When we are is followed by a slowdown or decline
busy earning lots of money, we have THE STRUCTURE in results. Dieters usually find that los-
little time to enjoy it. When we do Recognizing this paradox can help ing the first 10 pounds is a lot easier
have time available, it seems we don’t individuals and companies avoid the than losing the last two, and losing
have much money to spend. A rapidly “Limits to Success” trap. In a typical weight the first time around is a lot
growing company finds itself too busy scenario (see “‘Limits to Success’ easier than losing it the next time.
to invest its profits in internal develop- Template”), a system’s performance On a diet, eating less leads to
ment, but when sales begin to slow, it continually improves as a direct result weight loss, which encourages the per-
no longer has the resources (money of certain efforts. As performance son to continue to eat less (R3 in
and people) to spend on needed increases, the efforts are redoubled, “Dieting Bind”). But, over time, the
leading to even further improvement body adjusts to the lower intake of
(R1). When the performance begins to food by lowering the rate at which it
“LIMITS TO SUCCESS” plateau, the natural reaction is to burns the calories. Eventually the
T E M P L AT E increase the same efforts that led to weight loss slows or even stops. The
past gains. But the harder one pushes, limit here is the body’s metabolic
the harder the system seems to push rate—how fast it will burn the food.
Constraint
back: It has reached some limit or To continue losing weight, the person
s o s resistance that is preventing further needs to increase the metabolic rate by
Efforts R1 Performance B2 Limiting improvements in the system (B2). The combining exercise with dieting.
Action
s s
real leverage in a “Limits to Success” But pushing equally hard on exer-
scenario doesn’t lie in pushing on the cising isn’t the full answer either, since
“engines of growth,” but in finding intense exercise burns simple sugars
Performance and eliminating the factor(s) that are and not the stored fat that is the real
Efforts
limiting success while you still have target for weight loss. Intense exercise
time and money to do so. is counterproductive towards the
In a rapidly growing company, for dieter’s goal because it increases
example, initial sales are spurred by a appetite while only temporarily raising
successful marketing program. As the metabolism. The real leverage is to
Time sales continue to grow, the company engage in steady exercise such as long,
redoubles its marketing efforts — and brisk walks that will increase the
In a “Limits to Success” scenario, continued
efforts initially lead to improved performance
sales rise even further. But after a metabolic rate to a permanently
(R1). Over time, however, the system
point, pushing harder on the market- higher level.
encounters a limit that causes the perfor-
ing has less and less effect on sales.
mance to slow down or even decline (B2). The company has hit some limit, such S E R V I C E C A PA C I T Y L I M I T
Once the system has hit a limit, performance
begins to level off (or “crash”), even as
as market saturation or production People Express airlines was one of the
efforts continue to rise (bottom).
capacity. To continue its upward path, best-known casualties of the “Limits
the company may need to invest in to Success” archetype. Its tremendous
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 21
T O O L B O X
Responsibility for
s
Growing depen-
y
B2
Employee Necessary
Manager dence on manager;
performance training for
“provides” solution decreasing confi-
Fundamental s
problem employee
dence of employee
Solution o
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 23
T O O L B O X
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 25
T O O L B O X
o s
De
Activity
s R4 the freeway because
B R A Z I L’ S I N F L AT I O N
B’s
it is the most direct
s GAME
Activity o route. At first, each
R2 additional person on When the shared commons is a small,
R2 B6 the highway does not localized resource, the consequences of
slow down traffic, a “Tragedy of the Commons” scenario
Net Gains s because there is are more easily contained. At a
for B
s enough “slack” in the national level, however, the “Tragedy
Rate s
ments can result (B7 and B8).
De
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 27
INDEX TO THE SYSTEMS THINKER
“Fixes That Fail”: Oiling the Squeaky Wheel—Again and Again V1N6, November 1990
“Shifting the Burden”: The “Helen Keller” Loops V1N4, September 1990
“Tragedy of the Commons”: All for One and None for All V2N6, August 1991
Systems Archetypes I: Diagnosing Systemic Issues and Designing High-Leverage Intervention is the first volume in the
Toolbox Reprint Series. Other volumes include Systems Archetypes II: Using Systems Archetypes to Take Effective
Action, Systems Archetypes III: Understanding Patterns of Behavior and Delay, Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference
Guide, and The “Thinking” in Systems Thinking: Seven Essential Skills. All volumes are available for $16.95 each.
As these booklets are often used in training and introductory courses, volume discounts are available.
Call 1-781-398-9700 for details.
The Toolbox Reprint Series has been compiled from The Systems Thinker® Newsletter, which presents a systems
perspective on current issues and provides systems tools for framing problems in new and insightful ways.
The Systems Thinker includes articles by leading systems thinkers, case studies of systems thinking implementation,
software and book reviews, a calendar of workshops and events, and numerous other columns geared to different
levels of systems thinking ability. To learn more about The Systems Thinker or to subscribe, go to
http://www.thesystemsthinker.com.
Pegasus Communications, Inc. is dedicated to providing resources that help people explore, understand, articulate, and
address the challenges they face in managing the complexities of a changing world. Since 1989, Pegasus has worked to
build a community of practitioners through newsletters, books, audio and video tapes, and its annual Systems Thinking
in Action® Conference and other events.
P E G A S U S C O M M U N I C AT I O N S , I N C . W W W. P E G A S U S C O M . C O M SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I 29