2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions With People and Ecosystems - Advancing The Science of Climate Change - The National Academies Press PDF

10/6/2019 2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems | Advancing the
cing the Science of Climate Change | …
Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010)

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Chapter: 2 What We Know About Climate Change and change
Climate Its Interactions
is occurring,with People
is caused and
largely by
Ecosystems 
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human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
many cases is already a ecting--a broad range of
human and natural systems. The compelling case for
these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science
Visit NAP.edu/10766 to get more information about this book, to buy it in print, or to download it as a free PDF.
 Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices.
While noting that there is always more to learn and
that the scienti c process is never closed, the book
MyNAP members save
shows that hypotheses about climate change are
10% online. supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
Login or Register to stood rm in the face of serious debate and careful
CHAPTER TWO
save! evaluation of alternative explanations.
What We Know About Climate Change

As decision makers andrisks,Its
respond to these the
Download Free PDF nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
Interactions with Peopleresearchand Ecosystems
that improves understanding of the causes
and consequences of climate change and also is
useful to decision makers at the local, regional,
national, and international levels. The book identi es
Over the past several decades, the international and national research
decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from
communities have developed a progressively clearer
agriculture picturetoof
to transportation, howdecisions
identify and
why Earth’s climate is changing and of being made in response
the impacts to climate
of climate change. on a
change
wide range of human and environmental systems.
Advancing Research
the Science of Climatehas also
Change calls for a
single federal entity or program
evaluated actions that could be taken—and in some cases are already being to coordinate a
national, multidisciplinary research e ort aimed at
taken—to limit the magnitude of futureimproving
climateboth change and adapt
understanding to its to
and responses
climate
impacts. In the United States, a series of change.
reports bySeven
thecross-cutting
U.S. Global research
Change themes
are identi ed to support this scienti c enterprise. In
Research Program (USGCRP, also known as the
addition, Climate
leaders Change
of federal Science
climate research should
Program from 2001 to 2008) have synthesized the information speci c to
redouble e orts to deploy a comprehensive climate
observing system, improve climate models and other
the nation, culminating in the report Global Climate Change Impacts in the
analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve
United States (USGCRP, 2009a). Internationally, scienti
linkages between researchc information
and decisions byabout
forming
climate change is periodically assessedpartnerships with action-oriented programs.

by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), most recently in 2007. Much has been learned, and
this knowledge base is continuously being updated and expanded with new
research results.
Our assessment of the current state of knowledge about global climate

change, which is summarized in this chapter and described in detail in Part
II of the report, leads to the following conclusion.
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10/6/2019 2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems | Advancing the Science of Climate Change | …
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Conclusion 1: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human
Advancing theand
activities, Science
posesofsigni
Climate
cantChange
risks for—and in many cases is already
affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems.
This conclusion is based on a substantial array of scienti c evidence,

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by
including recent work, 
Buy and is consistent
Paperback withactivities,
| $49.95
human the conclusions
and poses signiof the
cant IPCC’s
risks
for--and in
Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a-d), recent assessments by the

USGCRP (e.g., USGRP, 2009a), and other recent
these assessments
conclusions is provided inof the state
Advancing of
the Science
scienti c knowledgeBuy 
onEbook of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
climate| change.
$39.99 Both our assessment and these
previous assessments place high or very high
While con
noting there is 1always
thatdence in the following
more to learn and
ndings: MyNAP members save
10% online.
1 As discussed in Appendix D, high consupported by multiple lines of evidence and have
dence indicates an estimated 8
out of 10 orsave!
better chance of a statement being
evaluation correct,
of alternative while very
explanations.
high con dence (or a statement than an ourcome is “very likely”)
As decision makers respond to these risks, the
indicates a 9 outDownload
of 10 or better chance.
Free PDF nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
research that improves understanding of the causes
Earth is warming. Detailed observations of surface temperature
agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions
assembled and analyzed by severalbeing
different research
made in response groups
to climate show
change.
that the planet’s average surface temperature was 1.4°F (0.8°C)

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a
warmer during the rst decade ofsingle
the 21st
federalcentury than during
entity or program thea
to coordinate
rst decade of the 20th century, with the most pronounced warming
improving both understanding and responses to
over the past three decades. These datachange.
climate are corroborated byresearch
Seven cross-cutting a variety
themes
of independent observations that indicate warming in other parts of
addition, leaders of federal climate research should
the Earth system, including the cryosphere
redouble e orts (the frozen
to deploy portions ofclimate
a comprehensive
observing
Earth’s surface), the lower atmosphere, andsystem,
theimprove
oceans.climate models and other
Most of the warming over the lastlinkages
several decades
between can
research andbedecisions
attributed
by forming
to human activities that release carbon dioxide
partnerships (CO2) and other
with action-oriented programs.heat-
trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The burning
of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—for energy is the single
largest human driver of climate change, but agriculture, forest
clearing, and certain industrial activities also make signi cant
contributions.
Natural climate variability leads to year-to-year and decade-to-
decade uctuations in temperature and other climate variables, as
×
well as substantial regional differences, but cannot explain or offset
Advancing
thethe Science warming
long-term of Climate Change
trend.
Global warming is closely associated with a broad spectrum of other
changes, such as increases in the frequency of intense rainfall,
decreases in Northern Hemisphere snow
Climate cover
change and Arctic
is occurring, sealargely
is caused ice, by
warmer and more 
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Paperback hot|days
$49.95
humanand activities,
nights, andrising
poses signi
seacant risks for--and
levels,
and in
widespread ocean acidi cation. human and natural systems. The compelling case for
Human-induced climate change and theseits impactsis provided
conclusions will continue forthe Science
in Advancing
many decades,Buy 
andEbook
in some | $39.99of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
cases suite
for many centuries. Individually and
of studies known as America's Climate Choices.
collectively, and in combination with Whilethe effects
noting of isother
that there always human
more to learn and
activities, thesemembers
MyNAP changessavepose risks for a wide range of human and
10% online.
environmental systems, including supported
freshwater resources,
by multiple the coastal
lines of evidence and have
environment, ecosystems, agriculture, sheries, human health, and
national security, among others.
The ultimate magnitude of climateAschangedecision makers respond to these risks, the
and the severity of its
impacts depend strongly on the actionsresearch that human
that improves societies of
understanding take to
the causes
respond to these risks. and consequences of climate change and also is
The following sections elaborate on these statements
decisions being madeand
in 12 provide a from
sectors, ranging
concise, high-level overview of the current state
agriculture of scienti cto knowledge
to transportation, identify decisions
being made in response to climate change.
about climate change in 12 critical areas of interest to a broad range of
stakeholders: Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a
single federal entity or program to coordinate a
Changes in the climate system; improving both understanding and responses to
Sea level rise and risk in the coastal environment;
climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Freshwater resources;
Ecosystems, ecosystem services, and biodiversity;
linkages between research and decisions by forming
partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Agriculture, sheries, and food production;

Public health;
Cities and the built environment;
Transportation systems;
Energy systems;
Solar radiation management;
National and human security; and
Designing, implementing, and evaluating climate policies.
×
The research progress in each of these topics is explored in additional
Advancing
detail inthe Science
Part II of theofreport,
Climate Change
but even those chapters are too brief to
provide a comprehensive review of the very large body of research on
these issues. Likewise, this report does not cover all scienti c topics of
interest in climate change research, only those
Climate of most
change immediate
is occurring, interest
is caused largely by
to decision makers.Buy  Paperback
Readers | $49.95
interestedhuman activities, and
in additional poses signi cant
information risks for--and in
should
consult the extensive assessment reports completed by theTheUSGCRP, 2
human and natural systems. compelling the
case for
IPCC,3 the National Research Council (NRC),4 and other groups, as well as

Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
the numerous scienti c papers that have
suitebeen published
of studies since their
known as America's Climate Choices.
completion.
MyNAP members save
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CHANGES to THE stood rm in the face of serious5debate and careful
CLIMATE SYSTEM
Earth’s physical climate system, which As

includes the atmosphere,
decision makers respond to theseoceans,
risks, the
cryosphere, and land surface,Free
Download is complex andscienti
PDF nation's constantly evolving.
c enterprise can contribute through
Nevertheless, the laws of physics and chemistry ultimately govern the
system, and can be used to understanduseful
howtoand why
decision climate
makers at thevaries from
local, regional,
place to place and over time.
The Greenhouse Effect is a Natural Phenomenon
That Is Critical for Life as We Know It
GHGs—which include water vapor, carbon national, multidisciplinary
dioxide (CO2), research
methane e ort aimed
(CH at
4),
nitrous oxide (N2O), and several others—are present
climate change. in cross-cutting
Seven relatively research
low themes
concentrations in the atmosphere, but, because of their ability to absorb
and re-radiate infrared energy, they trap heatenear
redouble orts tothe Earth’s
deploy surface,climate
a comprehensive
keeping it much warmer than it would observing
otherwise system,
beimprove
(Figure climate
2.1).models
The and other
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have increased
linkages over and
between research thedecisions
past twoby forming
partnerships
centuries as a result of human activities, especially with the
action-oriented
burningprograms.
of the fossil
2 http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scienti c-assessments/u
impacts
3 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports
4 http://national-academies.org/climatechange/
5 For additional discussion and references, see Chapter 6 in Part II of the repo

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 Buy Paperback | $49.95

 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

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FIGURE 2.1 Download nation's
Free PDFeffect.
The greenhouse scienti c enterprise
SOURCE: Mariancan contribute through
Koshland Science Museum of the andNational
consequencesAcademy
of climate of
change and also is
Sciences. useful to decision makers at the local, regional,
fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—for energy. The increasing concentrations
of GHGs are amplifying the natural greenhouse
being made in effect, causing
response to climateEarth’s
change.
surface temperature to rise. Human activities have also increased the

number of aerosols (small liquid droplets orfederal
single particles suspended
entity or in the a
program to coordinate
atmosphere). Aerosols have a wide range of environmental effects, but on
average they increase the amount of sunlight that Seven
climate change. is re cross-cutting
ected back to themes
research
space, a cooling effect that offsets some, but not all, of the warming
induced by increasing GHG concentrations.
Earth Is Warming linkages between research and decisions by forming
There are many indications—both direct and indirect—that the climate
system is warming. The most fundamental of these are thermometer
measurements, enough of which have been collected over both land and
sea to estimate changes in global average surface temperature since the
mid- to late 19th century. A number of inde-

×
Buy Paperback | $49.95human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

While notingchange
FIGURE 2.2 Global surface temperature that there from
is always moreto
1880 to learn and
MyNAP
2009 in members
degrees saveThe black curve shows annual
Celsius. shows that hypotheses about climate change are
10%
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temperatures, the red curve
supportedshows a 5-year
by multiple lines ofrunning
evidence and have
average, and the green bars indicate the estimated
uncertainty in the data during different periods of the
record. For further details see Figure 6.13. SOURCE: NASA
GISS (2010; based on Hansen et research
al., 2006, updated
that improves through of the causes
understanding
2009 at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/).
pendent research teams collect, analyze, and correct
decisions being madefor errors
in 12 sectors,and biases
ranging from
in these data (for example, accounting agriculture to transportation,
for the “urban to identify
heat island” decisions
effect
and changes in the instruments and methods used to measure ocean
surface temperatures). Each group usesAdvancing
slightlythedifferent
Science of Climate Change calls for a
analysis
techniques and data sources, yet the temperature estimates
national, multidisciplinary published
research e ort aimedbyat
these groups are highly consistent withimproving
one another.
both understanding and responses to
Surface thermometer measurements show the
addition, rstofdecade
leaders of the
federal climate 21st should
research
redouble
century was 1.4°F (0.8°C) warmer than the rste decade
orts to deploy a comprehensive
of the 20th century climate
(Figure 2.2). This warming has not beenanalytical
uniform, tools,but rather
invest in humanit capital,
is and improve
superimposed on natural year-to-year and even decade-to-decade by forming
linkages between research and decisions
variations. Because of this natural variability, it is important to focus on
trends over several decades or longer when assessing changes in the heat
balance of the Earth. Physical factors also give rise to substantial spatial
variations in the pattern of observed warming, with much stronger
warming over the Arctic than over tropical latitudes and over land areas
than over the ocean.
Other measurements of global temperature changes come from satellites,

weather balloons, and ships, buoys, and oats in the ocean. Like surface
×
thermometer measurements, these data have been analyzed by a number
Advancing the Science
of different researchof Climate
teams Change
around the world, corrected to remove errors
and biases, and calibrated using independent observations. Ocean heat
content measurements, which are taken from the top sev-

Buy Paperback | $49.95human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
eral hundred meters of the world’s oceans, show a warming trend over the
past several decades that is similar to thetheseatmospheric warming
conclusions is provided trendtheinScience
in Advancing
Figure 2.2. 
Up until a fewMyNAP
yearsmembers
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save were puzzled by the fact that the
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online.of atmospheric temperature trends seemed to
supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
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Loginwith the data
or Register to obtainedstood
fromrmweather
in the face balloon-based
of serious debate and careful
measurements, and both seemed to be slightly inconsistent with surface
temperature observations. Recently, researchers identi
As decision makers ed to
respond several small
these risks, the
Download
errors in both the satellite Free
and PDF nation's
weather scienti c enterprise can contribute through
balloon-based data sets, including
errors caused by instrument replacements, changes in
and consequences satellite
of climate change orbits,
and alsoand
is
useful
the effect of sunlight on the instruments to decision
carried by makers
weatherat theballoons.
local, regional,
After
correcting these errors, temperature records based
decisions being oninsatellite,
made 12 sectors, weather
ranging from
balloon, and ground-based measurements nowtoagree
agriculture withintothe
transportation, estimated
identify decisions
range of uncertainty associated with each type of observation.
The long-term trends in many other types of observations also provide
evidence that Earth is warming. For example:
Hot days and nights have become are identi edand
warmer to support
morethis scienti c enterprise. In
frequent;
Cold snaps have become milder and less efrequent;
redouble orts to deploy a comprehensive climate
Northern Hemisphere snow coverobserving
is decreasing;
system, improve climate models and other
Northern Hemisphere sea ice is declining in both extent and average
thickness; partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Rivers and lakes are freezing later and thawing earlier;

Glaciers and ice caps are melting in many parts of the world (as
described in more detail below); and
Precipitation, ecosystems, and other environmental systems are
changing in ways that are consistent with global warming (many of
these changes are also described below).
×
Based on this diverse, carefully examined, and well-understood body of
Advancing thescientists
evidence, Science are
of Climate
virtuallyChange
certain that the climate system is
warming. In addition, scientists have collected a wide array of “proxy”
evidence that indicates how temperatures and other climate properties
varied before direct measurements were available.
Climate change isThese proxy
occurring, data
is caused come
largely by
from ice cores, treeBuy 
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corals, lake human activities,
sediments, and poses signi
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natural systems.ofThe
these data case
compelling andfor
the techniques used to analyze them concluded thatisthe
these conclusions pastin few
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have been warmer Buy 

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any other
of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
comparable period for at least the last
400 years, and possibly for the last 1,000 years
While notingor longer
that there is (NRC, 2006b).
always more to learn and
MyNAP members save
The Climate System Exhibits Substantial Natural
Variability
nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
Download Free PDF
Earth’s climate varies naturally on a wide range of timescales, from
seasonal variations (such as a particularly wet
useful spring,
to decision hot at
makers summer, or
the local, regional,
snowy winter) to geological timescales of millions or even billions of years.
Careful statistical analyses have demonstrated
agriculture tothat it is verytounlikely
transportation, 6 that
identify decisions
natural variations in the climate system could have given rise to the
observed global warming, especially over the last
Advancing several
the Science decades.
of Climate Change calls for a
However, natural processes produce substantial seasonal, year-to-year,
and even decade-to-decade variations improving
that areboth superimposed
understanding and onresponses
the long- to
term warming trend, as well as substantial regional differences. Improving
understanding of natural variability patterns, and determining
addition, leaders of federal climatehow they
research should
redouble e orts to deploy
might change with increasing GHG emissions and global temperatures, is a comprehensive climate
an important area of active research (see the end
analytical tools, of this
invest section
in human andand improve
capital,
Chapter 6). linkages between research and decisions by forming
Natural climate variations can also be in uenced by volcanic eruptions,

changes in the output from the Sun, and changes in Earth’s orbit around
the Sun. Large volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo
in 1991, can spew copious amounts of aerosols into the upper atmosphere.
If the eruption is large enough, these aerosols can re ect enough sunlight
back to space to cool the surface of the planet by a few tenths of a degree
for several years.
×
The Sun’s output has been measured precisely by satellites since 1979, and
Advancing the Science ofdoClimate
these measurements not show Change
any overall trend in solar output over
this period. Prior to the satellite era, solar output was estimated by several
methods, including methods based on long-term records of the number of
sunspots observed each year, which is Climate
an indirect
change isindicator
occurring, isof solar
caused largely by
activity. These indirect 
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suggesthuman
thatactivities,
thereand was poses signi cant
a slight risks for--and
increase
in in
solar energy received by the Earth during human the rst few
and natural decades
systems. of the 20th
The compelling case for
century, which may have contributed to theconclusions
these global temperature increase
is provided in Advancing the Science
during that period Buy 

Ebook 2.2).
(see Figure | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
Perhaps the most
MyNAP dramatic
membersexample
save of that the scienti
natural c process
climate is never closed,
variability the ice
is the book
age cycle. Detailed analyses of ocean sediments,
10% online. ice cores,
supported by multiple geologic
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Login or Register to
landforms, and other data show that for at least
stood theface
rm in the past 800,000
of serious debateyears,
and careful
and probably the past several million years, the Earth has gone through
long periods when temperatures were As much colder
decision makersthan today
respond and
to these thick
risks, the
Download nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
blankets of ice covered muchFree PDFNorthern
of the Hemisphere (including the
areas currently occupied by the cities of andChicago,
consequencesNew York,change
of climate and Seattle).
and also is
These very long cold spells were punctuated by shorter, warm
“interglacial” periods, including the lastdecisions
10,000beingyears.
madeThrough a ranging from
in 12 sectors,
convergence of theory, observations, and
6 Asdiscussed in Appendix D, very unlikely indicates a less than 1 in 10
chance of a statement being incorrect.
modeling, scientists have deduced thataddition,
the iceleaders
agesofwere
federalinitiated by small
recurring variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun.
GHG Emissions and Concentrations Are Increasing
Human activities have increased the concentration of CO2 and certain
other GHGs in the atmosphere. Detailed worldwide records of fossil fuel
consumption indicate that fossil fuel burning currently releases over 30
billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (Figure 2.3, blue curve).
Tropical deforestation and other land use changes release an additional 3
to 5 billion tons every year.
×
Precise measurements of atmospheric composition at many sites around
Advancing theindicate
the world Sciencethat
of Climate Change
CO2 levels are increasing, currently at a pace of
almost 2 parts per million (ppm) per year. We know that this increase is
largely the result of human activities because the chemical signature of the
excess CO2 in the atmosphere can be linked to theiscomposition
Climate change oflargely
occurring, is caused the CO by 2
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fuel burning.
Moreover, analyses of bubbles
trapped in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica
human and naturalreveal
systems.that
atmospheric CO2 levels have been rising steadily since the start of the

Industrial Revolution (usually taken as 1750;
Buy Ebook | $39.99
suite ofsee Figure
studies known 2.3, red curve).
as America's Climate The
Choices.
current CO2 level (388 ppm as of the end of 2009) is higher than it has been
MyNAP members save
in at least 800,000 years. shows that hypotheses about climate change are


FIGURE 2.3 CO2 emissions due improving
to fossilboth fuelunderstanding
burning (blue and responses to
line and right axis) from 1800 toare2006 and atmospheric CO
identi ed to support this scienti c 2enterprise. In
concentrations (red line and leftaddition,
axis) from
leaders1847 to 2008.
of federal For should
climate research
further details see Figures 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4. Based on data
from Boden et al. (2009), Keeling et al. tools,
analytical (2009),
investand Neftel
in human et and improve
capital,
al. (1994).
Only 45 percent of the CO2 emitted by human activities remains in the

atmosphere; the remainder is absorbed by the oceans and land surface.
Current estimates, which are based on a combination of direct
measurements and models that simulate ecosystem processes and
biogeochemical cycles, indicate that roughly twice as much CO2 is taken
up annually by ecosystems on the land surface as is released by
×
deforestation; thus, the land surface is a net “carbon sink.” The oceans are
Advancing thecarbon
also a net Science of but
sink, Climate
only Change
some of the CO2 absorbed by the oceans is
taken up and used by marine plants; most of it combines with water to
form carbonic acid, which (as described below) is harmful to many kinds of
ocean life. The combined impacts of rising CO
Climate 2 levels,
change temperature
is occurring, change,

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and other climate changes | $49.95
on natural
ecosystems and on agriculture are
described later in this chapter and in further detail
human and naturalinsystems.
Part IIThe
ofcompelling
the report.
case for
 Activities Are Associated with a Net

Human
Warming Effect on Climate
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Human activities have led to higher concentrations
10% online. of alines
supported by multiple number of GHGs
of evidence and have
as well as other climate forcing agents. stood
For example, the
rm in the face human-caused
increase in CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is
associated with a warming effect equivalent As decision makers respond to these
to approximately risks, theof
1.6 Watts
Download
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FreeEarth’s surface
scienti c enterprise can contribute through
(Figure
research that improves2.4). Although
understanding this
of the causes
may seem like a small amount of energy, when multiplied by the surface is
and consequences of climate change and also
area of the Earth it is 50 times larger than the total power consumed by all
human activities. decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from
In addition to CO2, the concentrations of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
Advancing
(N2O), ozone (O3), and over a dozen chloro the Science of Climate
uorocarbons and Change callsgases
related for a
have increased as a result of human activities. Collectively,
national, multidisciplinary the total
research e ort aimed at
improving
warming associated with GHGs is estimated toboth
be understanding
3.0 Watts per and responses
square to
meter, or almost double the forcing associated with
are identi ed CO2this
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scientiWhile CO2In
c enterprise.
addition,
and N2O levels continue to rise (due mainly toleaders
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burning and should
agricultural processes, respectively), concentrations of several
observing system, improve climateof the and other
models
halogenated gases are now declining asanalytical tools,
a result ofinvest in human
action taken capital, and improve
to protect
the ozone layer, and the concentrationpartnerships
of CH4 alsowithappears to have
action-oriented leveled
programs.
off (see Chapter 6 for details).
Human activities have also increased the number of aerosols, or particles,

in the atmosphere. While the effects of these particles are not as well
measured or understood as the effects of GHGs, recent estimates indicate
that they produce a net cooling effect that offsets some, but not all, of the
warming associated with GHG increases (see Figure 2.4). Humans have also
modi ed Earth’s land surface, for example by replacing forests with
×
cropland. Averaged over the globe, it is estimated that these land use and
Advancing the changes
land cover Science have
of Climate Change
increased the amount of sunlight that is re ected
back to


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FIGURE 2.4 Climate forcing duenational,
to both human activities
multidisciplinary research eandort aimed at
natural processes, expressed in improving
Watts per both understanding and responses to
square meter
(energy per unit area). Positive forcing
are identi corresponds
ed to support this to a c enterprise. In
scienti
warming effect. See Chapter 6 for addition, leaders
further of federal
details. climate research should
SOURCE:
Forster et al. (2007). observing system, improve climate models and other
space, producing a small net cooling effect.
linkagesOther
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global climate.
Feedback Processes Determine How the Climate

System Responds to Forcing
The response of the climate system to GHG increases and other climate
forcing agents is strongly in uenced by the effects of positive and negative
feedback processes in the climate system. One example of a positive
×
feedback is the water vapor feedback. Water vapor is the most important
Advancing
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feedback. Other important changes in other kinds of
clouds, land surface properties, biogeochemical
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Advancing the sensitivity
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the climate system, or how much the system will warm or cool in response
to a certain amount of forcing. A variety of methods
improving have been
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estimate climate sensitivity, which is typically expressed as the
temperature change expected if atmospheric CO2 levels
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these estimates indicate that the expected warming due to a doubling of
CO2 is between 3.6°F and 8.1°F (2.0°C and 4.5°C), with a best estimate of
5.4°F (3.0°C). Unfortunately, the diversity and complexity of processes
operating in the climate system means that, even with continued progress
in understanding climate feedbacks, the exact sensitivity of the climate
system will remain somewhat uncertain. Nevertheless, estimates of climate
sensitivity are a useful metric for evaluating the causes of observed climate
change and estimating how much Earth will ultimately warm in response
to human activities.
×
Global Warming Can Be Attributed to Human
Activities
Many lines of evidence support the conclusion that most of the observed
warming since the start of the 20th century, and especially over the last
several decades, can be attributed to human activities, including the
following:

human activities,
many cases is
and poses
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risks for--and in
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1. Earth’s surface temperature has clearly risen over the past 100 years,
at the same time that human activities
suite ofhave
studiesresulted in sharp
increases in CO2 and other GHGs.
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2. Both the basic physics of the greenhouse
shows that effect and
hypotheses more
about detailed
climate change are
calcula-Login or Register to
stood rm in the face of serious debate and careful

tions dictate that increases in atmospheric GHGs
and consequences should
of climate leadand
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3. The vertical pattern of observed warming—with warming in the
bottom-most layer of the atmosphere and in
being made cooling
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inconsistent with other possible causes (seeentity
single federal below).
or program to coordinate a
4. Detailed simulations with state-of-the-art computer-based models of
the climate system are only able to reproduce
climate the cross-cutting
change. Seven observedresearch
warming themes
are identi ed to support
trend and patterns when human-induced GHG emissions are this scienti c enterprise. In
included. redouble e orts to deploy a comprehensive climate
In addition, other possible causes of the observed
analytical warming
tools, invest have
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rigorously evaluated: partnerships with action-oriented programs.
5. As described above, the climate system varies naturally on a wide

range of time scales, but a rigorous statistical evaluation of observed
climate trends, supported by analyses with climate models, indicates
that the observed warming, especially the warming since the late
1970s, cannot be attributed to natural variations.
6. Satellite measurements conclusively show that solar output has not
increased over the past 30 years, so an increase in energy from the
Sun cannot be responsible for recent warming. There is evidence that
×
some of the warming observed during the rst few decades of the
Advancing thecentury
20th Sciencemay
of Climate Change
have been caused by a slight uptick in solar output,
although this conclusion is much less certain.
7. Direct measurements likewise show that the number of cosmic rays,
which some scientists have posited might
Climate in isuence
change cloud
occurring, formation
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conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science

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Based on these and other lines of evidence, the Panel on Advancing the
Science of Climate Change—along withthat anthe
overwhelming
scienti c process ismajority of the book
never closed,
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climate scientists (Rosenberg et al., 2010)—conclude
10% online. that much of the
observed warming since
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Models and Scenarios Are Used to Estimate Future and consequences of climate change and also is
Climate Change national, and international levels. The book identi es
In order to project future changes in the climate system, scientists must
rst estimate how GHG emissions and being
other madeclimate forcings
in response (such
to climate as
change.
aerosols and land use) will change overAdvancing

time. Since the future cannot be
the Science of Climate Change calls for a
known with certainty, a large number single federal entity or program to coordinate a
of different scenarios are developed, each using
are identi eddifferent assumptions
to support this scienti c enterprise. In
about future economic, social, technological, and environmental
conditions. These scenarios have increased in system,
observing complexity
improve over
climatetime,
modelsand
and other
the most recent scenario development efforts include sophisticated
models of energy production and use, economic activity,
partnerships with and the
action-oriented possible
programs.
in uence of different climate policy actions on future emissions. Future
climate change, like past climate change, is also subject to natural climate
variations that modulate the expected warming trend.
After future forcing scenarios are developed, climate models are used to
simulate how these changes in GHG emissions and other climate forcing
agents will translate into changes in the climate system. Climate models
are computer-based representations of the atmosphere, oceans,
×
cryosphere, land surface, and other components of the climate system. All
Advancing
climatethe Science
models of Climate Change
are fundamentally based on the laws of physics and
chemistry that govern the motion and composition of the atmosphere and
oceans. The most sophisticated versions of these models—referred to as
Earth system models—include representations of a iswide
Climate change range
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physical, chemical, Buy 
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human activities,
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as small
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scientists are con dent that
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As decision makersaspects
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the
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system. Scientists are also con climate models give a reasonable
projection of future changes in climateand that can be expected
consequences based
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also
particular scenario of future GHG emissions, at least at large (continental
to global) scales. A variety of downscaling techniques
decisions being made have been developed
in 12 sectors, ranging from
to project future climate changes at regional and local scales. These
techniques are not as well established and tested as global climate models,
and their results re ect uncertainties in both the underlying global
projections and regional climate processes. Hence,
national, predictions
multidisciplinary researchof regional
e ort aimed at
and local climate change are generally improving
much more both understanding
uncertain and thanresponses
large-to
scale changes. Other key sources of uncertainty insupport
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this scienti enterprise. In
climate change include (1) uncertainty in future
addition, climate
leaders forcing,
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how human societies will produce and observing
use energy in the decades ahead; (2)
system, improve climate models and other
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represented in inmodels,
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changes in ice sheets, and certain land use and ecosystem processes; and
(3) the possibility that abrupt changes or other climate “surprises” (see
below) may occur.
Projections of Future Climate Change Indicate

Continued Warming
×
The most recent comprehensive modeling effort to date included more
Advancing
than 20the Science
different of Climate Change
state-of-the-art climate models from around the world.
Each of these climate models projected future climate change based on a
range of different scenarios of future GHG emissions and other changes in
climate forcing. Continued warming is Climate
projectedchangeby all models,
is occurring, butlargely
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human and forcing. BasedThe
natural systems. oncompelling
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10% online.to continued GHG
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supported butlines
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Hence,ofthe choices that human
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societies make over the next several decades will have an enormous
in uence on the magnitude of future climate change.
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As with observed climate change to date, consequences of climate
are wide change and also is
geographic
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projected warming over high latitudes and over land areas (see Figure
decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging 2.5).
from
In the United States, temperatures are being
projected to warm substantially
made in response to climate change.
over the 21st century under all projections of future climate change
(USGCRP, 2009a). Temperature increases over the next few decades
primarily re ect past emissions and arenational,
thus similar across
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scenarios of future GHG emissions. However, by midcentury and especially
at the end of the century, higher emissions scenarios
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A Multitude of Additional Climate and Climate- partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Related Changes Are Projected

In addition to increasing global average temperatures, a host of other
climate variables are projected to experience signi cant changes over the
21st century, just as they have during the past century. For example, it is
very likely8 that
Heat waves will become more intense, more frequent, and longer
lasting, while the frequency of cold extremes will continue to
×
decrease;
Advancing the and
Snow Science of Climate
ice extent Changeto decrease;
will continue
The intensity of precipitation events will continue to increase;
7 As discussed in Chapter 6, none of the scenarios considered in this

modeling effort attempted to represent how climate policy

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signi cant risks for--and in
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interventions might in uence future GHG emissions.
8 Estimated greater than 9 out of 10 chance (see Appendix
these conclusions is providedD).

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FIGURE 2.5 Worldwide projected changes in temperatures,
relative to 1961-1990 averages, under
addition,three
leadersdifferent
of federal climate research should
emissions scenarios (rows) for three differentdeploy
redouble e orts to timeaperiods
comprehensive climate
(columns). For further details see Figure
analytical 6.21.
tools, SOURCE:
invest in human capital, and improve
Meehl et al. (2007a). linkages between research and decisions by forming
Glaciers and ice sheets will continue to melt; and

Global sea level will continue to rise.
Many of these changes are discussed below and described in detail in Part
II of the report.
Abrupt Changes May Occur
×
Confounding all projections of future climate is the possibility of abrupt
Advancing
changesthe Science
in the of Climate
climate Change
system, other environmental systems, or human
systems. Paleoclimate records indicate that the climate system can
experience abrupt changes in as little as a decade. The Earth’s temperature
is now demonstrably higher than it hasClimate
beenchange
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is occurring, is causedyears,
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GHG concentrations Buy 
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raise the possibility that “tipping points” orconclusions
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system
warms, leading to rapid or abrupt
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may also lead to abrupt changes in human
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are also experiencing other environmental stresses. However,
in general we have only a limited understanding of where
As decision makers respondthe tipping
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points in the climate system,Free PDF
other environmental systems, or human
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Research Needs for Advancing Climate System being made in response to climate change.
Science
single federal
Additional research, supported by expanded entity or program
observational and to modeling
coordinate a
capacity, is needed to improve understanding
improving ofbothkey climate processes,
understanding and responses to
climate change. Seven cross-cutting
improve projections of future climate change (especially at regional research themes
scales),
and evaluate the potential for abrupt changes in theof climate
addition, leaders system.
federal climate The
research should
following are some of the most critical research needs for continued
improvements in our ability to understand, observe, and project the
behavior of the climate system: linkages between research and decisions by forming
Improve understanding of how the climate system will respond to
forcing.
Re ne the ability to project interannual, decadal, and multidecadal
climate change, including extreme events, at regional scales.
Advance understanding of feedbacks and thresholds that may be
crossed that lead to irreversible or abrupt changes.
Expand and maintain comprehensive and sustained climate
observations to provide real-time information about climate
×
variability and change.
For a longer discussion of these and other climate system research needs,
see Chapter 6.
 LEVEL RISE AND THE COASTAL

SEA human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
ENVIRONMENT 9
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States
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storms. However, coastal managers and property owners are concerned
about how these risks are being and will be intensi ed by sea level rise and
other climate changes. research that improves understanding of the causes
9 Foradditional discussion and references, see
useful to Chapter
decision makers7atinthePart
local,II of the
regional,
report.

FIGURE 2.6 Annual, global mean sea level as determined by

records of tide gauges (red and blue curves) and satellite
altimetry (black curve). For further details see Figure 7.2.
SOURCE: Bindoff et al. (2007).
×
Observations of Sea Level Rise
Sea level has been systematically measured by tide gauges for more than
100 years. Other direct and indirect observations have allowed
oceanographers to estimate (with lower precision) past sea levels going
back many thousands of years. We know that sea level has risen more than

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Causes of Sea Level Rise agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions
Past, present, and future changes in global sea level are mainly caused by
Advancing
two fundamental processes: (1) the thermal the Science ofof
expansion Climate Change callswater
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estimated 50 percent of the observed sea level rise since the late 19th
century. Even if GHG concentrations are stabilized, ocean warming and the
accompanying sea level rise will continue until the oceans reach a new
thermal equilibrium with the atmosphere. Ice in the world’s glaciers and
ice sheets contributes directly to sea level rise through melt or the ow of
ice into the sea. The major ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica contain
the equivalent of 23 and 197 feet (7 and 60 meters) of sea level, respectively.
×
Projections of Sea Level Rise
Projections of future sea level have been the subject of active discussion in
the recent literature on climate change impacts. The 2007 Assessment
Report by the IPCC estimated that sea level would likely rise by an
additional 0.6 to 1.9 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters) by 2100. This projection was

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variations during the ice age cycles, suggests hypotheses
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estimate of the rate of ice loss at this time. Nevertheless,
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global sea level rise will continue throughout the 21st century due to the to climate change.
GHGs that have already been emitted, that thetherate

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Ice Sheet Processes Could Potentially Lead to

Abrupt Changes
In addition to rapid accelerations in the rate of sea level rise, a collapse or
rapid wastage of major ice sheets could lead to other abrupt changes. For
example, if the Greenland ice sheet were to shrink substantially over
×
several decades, a large amount of freshwater would be delivered to key
Advancing
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Sea Level Rise Is Associated with a Range of Impacts
on Coastal Environments
Coastal areas are among the most densely populated
decisions being madeand
in 12fastest-growing
sectors, ranging from
regions of the United States, as well as agriculture
the resttooftransportation,
the world.toSuch identify decisions
population concentration and growth are accompanied by a high degree of
development and use of coastal resources for economic
Advancing purposes,
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including industrial activities, transportation, trade, resource extraction,
sheries, tourism, and recreation. Sea level rise
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these activities and their accompanying infrastructure, and it could also
magnify other climate changes, such asaddition,
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intensity of storms (see below). Even if the frequency or intensity of coastal climate
storms does not change, increases in average sea level
analytical tools, will
invest in magnify
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capital, and
impacts of extreme events on coastal landscapes.
The economic impacts of climate change and sea level rise on coastal areas
in the United States have been an important focus for research. While
economic impact assessments have become increasingly sophisticated,
they remain incomplete and are subject to the well-recognized challenges
of cost-bene t analyses (see Chapter 17). In addition, while studies of
economic impacts may be useful at a regional level,
×
general conclusions regarding the total magnitude of economic impacts in
Advancing the States
the United Science of Climate
cannot Change
be drawn from existing studies; this is because
the metrics, modeling approaches, sea level rise projections, inclusions of
coastal storms, and assumptions about human responses (e.g., the type and
level of protection) vary considerably across the studies.

Coastal ecosystems such as dunes, wetlands, estuaries, seagrass beds, and
mangroves provide numerous ecosystem thesegoods andisservices,
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environments for recreation, tourism, and simple enjoyment. The impact of
sea level rise on these and other nonmarket values
As decision makersisrespond
often toomitted from
these risks, the
Download Free nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
economic impact assessments ofPDF
coastal areas because of dif culties in
assigning values. and consequences of climate change and also is
Science for Responding to Sea Level Rise decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from
Scienti c understanding of people’s vulnerability and ability
being made in response to adapt
to climate change.to sea
level rise (and other impacts of climateAdvancing

changetheon coastal
Science systems)
of Climate hasfor a
Change calls
increased in recent years. Developing countries
single federalare
entityexpected
or program totocoordinate
face a
greater challenges in dealing with the impacts of rising sea levels because
of lower adaptive capacity—which is largely
climate a function
change. Seven of economic,
cross-cutting research themes
technological, and knowledge resources; social capital; and well-
functioning institutions. In developed countries
redouble e ortslike to the
deployUnited States,climate
a comprehensive
observing
adaptive capacity may be higher, but this has not system,
been improve climate models and other
thoroughly
examined to date and there are a large linkages
number of assets
between research and
and people atforming
decisions by risk.
Moreover, signi cant gaps remain in our partnerships
empirical withunderstanding
action-oriented programs.
of and
ability to identify place-based vulnerabilities to the impacts of sea level rise
along the U.S. coastline. Considerable challenges also remain in translating
whatever adaptive capacity exists into real adaptation actions on the
ground.
Virtually all adaptive responses to sea level rise have costs as well as social
and ecological consequences, and most are complicated by having effects
that extend far into the future and beyond the immediately affected coastal
×
regions. Engineering options such as seawalls and levees are not feasible in
all locations, of Climate
and in many Change
they could have negative effects on coastal
ecosystems, beach recreation, tourism, aesthetics, and other socially
valued aspects of coastal environments. A wide range of barriers and
constraints make “soft” solutions—suchClimate
as changes
change is in land use
occurring, planning
and, ultimately, retreat 
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human activities, and
the shoreline—equally poses signi cant
challenging. Suchrisks for--and in
constraints and limits human and natural systems. The compelling case for
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on adaptation are increasingly recognized, but little
While noting is currently
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members save appropriate, cost-effective, least
ecologically damaging,
10% online.and most socially acceptable
supported adaptation
by multiple options
lines of evidence and havefor
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different places andor regions.
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As discussed
stoodbelow and
rm in the faceinoffurther detail
serious debate andincareful
Chapter 4, continued and expanded scienti c research can help to address
these gaps in understanding. As decision makers respond to these risks, the
Research Needs for Advancing Science on Sea Level and consequences of climate change and also is
Rise and Associated Risks in the Coastal national, and international levels. The book identi es
Environment agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions
While global sea level rise is certain to continue, the physical science of sea
level rise and related climate changes remains
Advancing the incomplete, making
Science of Climate future
Change calls for a
projections uncertain. Moreover, socialnational,
and ecological understanding of
multidisciplinary research e ort aimed at
place-based vulnerability and adaptation options
improving bothin coastal regions
understanding of the
and responses to
United States is lacking. Thus, research is needed to improve our
understanding and projections of future sea level
addition, leaders rise, the climate
of federal impacts of this
research should
redouble e orts to deploy
rise on affected human and natural systems, and the feasibility of a comprehensive climate
adaptation options in the near and longer term.
analytical Speci
tools, c human
invest in researchcapital,needs,
and improve
linkages between research
which are explained in more detail in Chapter 7, include the following: and decisions by forming
Reduce the scienti c uncertainties associated with changes in

glaciers and ice sheets.
Improve understanding of ocean dynamics and regional rates of sea
level rise.
Develop tools and approaches for understanding and predicting the
impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems and coastal
infrastructure.
×
Expand the ability to identify and assess vulnerable coastal regions
Advancing the
and Science ofand
populations Climate Change
to develop and assess adaptation strategies that
can reduce vulnerability or build adaptive capacity.
Develop decision-support capabilities for all levels of governance in
response to the challenges associated
Climatewith sea
change level rise.
is occurring, is caused largely by

human activities, and poses signi
cant risks for--and in
10 The compelling case for
human and natural systems.
FRESHWATER RESOURCES

The availability of water for human andsuiteecosystem use depends
of studies known as America's on twoChoices.
Climate
main factors: (1) the climate-driven global water cycle and (2) society’s
MyNAP members save
ability to manage, store, and conserve water
shows thatresources. Eachclimate
hypotheses about of thesechange are
factors is complex, as is their interaction. Water cycling—which includes
evaporation and
save!transpiration, precipitation,
evaluationand both surface
of alternative runoff and
explanations.
groundwater movement—determines how freshwater ows and how it
interacts with other processes. Precipitation amounts,
Download Free PDF nation's scienti intensity,
geographic distribu- research that improves understanding of the causes
10 For additional discussion and useful tosee
references, decision makers8
Chapter atin
thePart
local, regional,
II of
the report. decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from

tion, and other characteristics matter for water management, and all are
affected by both short-term climate variability and long-term
national, multidisciplinary researchclimate
e ort aimed at
change. Likewise, soils, topography, land cover, precipitation intensity, and
other variables in uence how much precipitation
are identi ed tocan bethis
support stored
scienti for use. In
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addition, leaders
Other variables such as level of consumption, of federal
pollution, climate research should
conservation,
pricing, distribution, and land use changes aresystem,
observing also important
improve climate for water
models and other
management decisions. These complex processes prevent any easy improve
analytical tools, invest in human capital, and
conclusions about regional water supplies basedwith
partnerships solely on climate
action-oriented model-
programs.
driven projections. Nonetheless, historical and current changes in some
variables are becoming clear.
Global Precipitation and Extreme Rainfall Events

Are Increasing
In general, changes in precipitation are harder to measure and predict than
changes in temperature. Nevertheless, some conclusions and projections
are robust. For example, based on the fundamental properties and
×
dynamics of the climate system, it is expected that the intensity of the
global water of of
cycle and Climate Changeextremes (droughts and extremely
precipitation
heavy precipitation events) should both increase as the planet warms.
Increases in worldwide precipitation and in the fraction of total
precipitation falling in the form of heavy precipitation
Climate haveisalready
change is occurring, been
caused largely by
observed; for example, 
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fraction |
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humanrainfall
total activities, falling
and posesinsigni
thecant risks for--and
heaviest
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percent of rain events increased by about human 20and
percent over the
natural systems. The past century
compelling case for
in the United States. Climate models project that these
these conclusions trends,
is provided whichthe Science
in Advancing
create challenges for 

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control
andsuite
storm and sewer management, are
very likely to continue. However, models also
While indicate
noting that there a isstrong seasonality
always more to learn and
in projected precipitation
MyNAP members changes
save in the United States, with drier
summers across10%much
online.of the Midwest, supported
the Paciby cmultiple
Northwest, and and have
lines of evidence
California, for example.

Snow Cover Isnation's
Decreasing
Download Free PDF
Another robust projection of climate change is that snow and ice cover
should decrease as temperatures rise. Worldwide,
useful to decisionsnowmakerscover is regional,
at the local,
decreasing, although substantial regional variability exists. In the United
States, changes in snowpack in the West currently
agriculture representto the
to transportation, best-
identify decisions
being made in response
documented hydrological manifestation of climate change. The largest to climate change.
losses in snowpack are occurring in theAdvancing

lower theelevations of mountains
Science of Climate ina
Change calls for
the Northwest and California, as highersingle federal entity orcause
temperatures programmore
to coordinate a
precipitation to fall as rain rather than improving
snow. Moreover, snowpack
both understanding is
and responses to
climate change. Seven
melting as much as 20 days earlier in many areas of the West. Snow iscross-cutting research themes
expected to melt even earlier under projections of future
addition, leaders of federalclimate change,
resulting in streams that have reduced ow and higher temperatures in
late summer. Such changes have majoranalytical
implications for ecosystems,
tools, invest in human capital, and improve
hydropower, urban and agricultural water supplies,
linkages and other
between research uses. by forming
and decisions
Total Runoff Is Increasing but Shows Substantial

Regional Variability
Average ows of streams and rivers in the United States have increased in
most areas over the past several decades, which is consistent with
observed and expected trends in precipitation. There are regional
×
differences, however, with decreased stream ow in the Columbia and
Advancing
ColoradotheRivers,
Science
for of ClimateObserved
example. Change changes in stream ow re ect
both natural variability in hydrology as well as the aggregate effects of
many human in uences, of which climate change is only one. In some
areas, changes in climate are exacerbating decreases
Climate in river
change is occurring, and stream
ows that are already 
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human activities, and
agricultural, poses signi cant
residential, andrisks for--and in
other
human uses. human and natural systems. The compelling case for
 and Floods Are Likely to Increase

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Droughts
Given the observed increases in heavy that
precipitation events
the scienti c process and closed,
is never the the book
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expectation that this intensi cation willshows that hypotheses
continue, the riskabout climate oods
from changeis
are
projected to increase in the future.
Login or Register to Local water,
stood rm in land use,
the face and debate
of serious ood and
risk-
careful
managementsave!
decisions, however, can modify
evaluationthe actual explanations.
of alternative ood vulnerability
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research It
Drought is a complex environmental impact. that
isimproves
stronglyunderstanding
affected ofnot the only
causes
by the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration
useful to decision makers at the (the sum of
local, regional,
evaporation of water from the surface andnational, and international
transpiration oflevels.
water The though
book identi es
the leaves of plants) and the resulting effect ontosoil
agriculture moisture,
transportation, but also
to identify by
decisions
other human in uences such as urbanization,
being made deforestation, andchange.
in response to climate changes
in agriculture. Additionally, historical data on drought
Advancing the Science offrequencies andfor a
Climate Change calls
intensities are limited, making it dif cult tofederal
single unambiguously
entity or program attribute
to coordinate a
severe droughts to climate change. Climate model projections indicate that
the area affected by drought and the number of annual
climate change. dry days research
Seven cross-cutting are likely
themes
to increase in the decades ahead. In areas where water is stored for part of
the year in snowpack, reductions in snowpack
redouble e and earlier
orts to deploy asnowmelt
comprehensive are
climate
observing system,
expected to increase the risk of water limitations andimprove
drought.climate models and other
Storm Patterns and Intensities May Change partnerships with action-oriented programs.
How storm patterns may change in the future is of obvious importance to

water managers, but considerably less is known in this area than in the
hydrologic changes discussed above. Changes in the intensity of
hurricanes have been documented and attributed to changes in sea surface
temperatures, but the link between these changes and climate change
remains uncertain and the subject of considerable research and scienti c
debate. The most recent climate model projections indicate that
climate change may lead to increases in the intensity of the strongest

hurricanes, but effects on frequency of occurrence are still in an active
area of research. Relatively little is known about how climate change will
×
affect midlatitude storm patterns, in part because of the close connection
between storm patterns and regional climate variability, although
signi cant shifts in in

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predominant storm tracks have been observed.
and poses risks for--and
Water 
Quality and Groundwater Supplies May Be
Affected While noting that there is always more to learn and
Some regionsMyNAP
of themembers save rely on groundwater for drinking,
United States shows that hypotheses about climate change are
10% online. supported by multiplechange
lines of evidence
residential use, or agriculture. The impacts of climate on and have
groundwatersave!
are far from clear; in fact,evaluation
little research effort
of alternative has been
explanations.
devoted to this topic. Changes in precipitation and evaporation patterns,
plant growth processes, and incursionsnation'sof seascienti
water into coastal
c enterprise aquifers
can contribute as
through
Download Free PDF
research that improves
sea levels rise will all affect the rate of groundwater understanding
recharge, of the causes
the absolute
volume of groundwater available, groundwater quality,
useful to decision and
makers thelocal,
at the physical
regional,
connection between surface and groundwater bodies.
Increased temperatures generally havebeing
a negative impacttoon
made in response water
climate quality
change.
in lakes and rivers, typically by stimulating growth of nuisance algae.
Changes in heavy precipitation, runoff,single
andfederal
stream entity ow can also
or program be
to coordinate a
expected to have an impact on a diverse set of water quality variables. at
national, multidisciplinary research e ort aimed
Water quality will also be affected by saltwater intrusion
climate change. into coastal
Seven cross-cutting research themes
aquifers as sea levels rise. In general, the
are water
identi edquality
to supportimplications of
this scienti c enterprise. In
climate change are even less understood than impacts on water supply.
Climate Change May Increase Water Management linkages between research and decisions by forming
Challenges partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Effective management of water supplies requires fairly precise information

about current and expected future water availability. However, the
complex processes involved in the hydrologic cycle prevent simplistic
conclusions about how to manage water supplies based on climate model
projections. In many regions, the uncertainties associated with projections
of rainfall and runoff coupled with uncertainties in other changes, such as
changes in land use and land cover, leads to cascading uncertainties about
×
changes in freshwater resources. These uncertainties are compounded by
uncertainties in the of Climatecapacity
technical Changeto store, manage, and conserve
water resources, which in turn are shaped by socioeconomic, cultural,
institutional, and behavioral issues that determine the use of water. Two
clear messages that emerge from research on
Climate water
change management
is occurring, is that
water managers will Buy 
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human activities,
to make decisions and poses
while facing signi cant risks
persistent andfor--and in
sometimes considerable uncertainty, and that
human andimproved decision-support
natural systems. The compelling case for
tools would be helpful for planning purposes.

Buy Ebook | $39.99
MyNAP members save
Research
10% online. Needs for Advancing Science on supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
Freshwater
save!
Resources in the Context of Climate evaluation of alternative explanations.
Change
Download
Changes in freshwater Freeare
systems PDF nation's scienti
expected c enterprise
to create signicancant
contribute through
challenges for ood management, drought preparedness,
and consequences water
of climate change supplies,
and also is
and many other water resource issues.useful to decision to
Responding makers at the
these local, regional,will
challenges
require better data and improved model projections
decisions asinwell
being made as a better
12 sectors, ranging from
understanding of both the impacts of climate
agriculturechange and the
to transportation, role ofdecisions
to identify water
governance on future water resources. Signi cant gaps remain in the
knowledge base that informs both projections ofScience
Advancing the climate impacts
of Climate Changeon water
calls for a
resources and governance strategies that can build adaptive capacity of
water systems to climate effects. Key research needs,
improving both which are
understanding explored
and responses to
in more detail in Chapter 8, include the following:
Improve projections of changes inredouble
precipitation and other
e orts to deploy water climate
a comprehensive
resources at regional and seasonalobserving system, improve climate models and other
time scales.
Develop long-term observational systems for measuring
linkages between and by forming
research and decisions
predicting hydrologic changes andpartnerships
planningwith management responses.
Improve tools and approaches for decision making under uncertainty

and complexity.
Develop vulnerability assessments of the diverse range of water users
and integrative management approaches to respond effectively to
changes in water resources.
Increase understanding of water institutions and governance, and
design effective systems for the future.
Improve water engineering and technologies.
×
Evaluate effects, feedbacks, and mitigation options of water resource
Advancing the
use onScience
climate. of Climate Change
ECOSYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND

11
BIODIVERSITY

Decades of research on terrestrial and human
marine and natural systems. The compelling case for
ecosystems and their
biodiversity have improved our understanding of theirpart importance forrequested

Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change,
suite of studies
society and their links to climate. Ecosystems
of a congressionally
knownfood,
provide as America's
fuel,Climate
and Choices.
freshwater. They regulate climate through the
that the global
scienti carbon
c process cycle
is never and
closed, thethe
book
MyNAP members save
hydrologic cycle. They buffer against storms,
shows that erosion,
hypotheses and extreme
about events
climate change are
and provide cultural, nonmaterial
Login or Register to benestood
ts such as space for recreation,
rm in the face of serious debate and careful
education, and spiritual practices. Ecosystems
save! evaluation ofare thus essential
alternative explanations.
components of Earth’s life support system, and understanding the impacts

of climate change on ecosystems
Download is a critical
Free PDF part of
nation's scienti the research
enterprise.
11 Foradditional discussion and references, see Chapter 9 in Part II of the
report. decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from

Climate Change Is Already Affecting Land-Based

Ecosystems climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Shifts in climate are changing the geographical range
addition, leaders of many
of federal plant
climate and
research should
animal species. A series of place-based observations and syntheses of
existing data indicate that many plantsanalytical
and animals have
tools, invest experienced
in human capital, and improve
range shifts over the past 30 years that approach the magnitude of those
inferred for the last 20,000 years (the time of the last glacial maximum).
The phenology (seasonal periodicity and timing of life-cycle events) of
species is also changing with the earlier onset of spring and longer growing
seasons. The implications of these changes for biodiversity, the provision
of ecosystems services, and feedbacks on climate are not well understood.
Large and long-duration forest res have increased fourfold over the past
30 years in the American West. Forest res are in uenced by many factors,
including climate change, but warming has increased the length of the re
×
season by more than two months in some locations, and the increasing size
Advancing
of wild the
res Science of Climate
can be attributed inChange
part to earlier snowmelt, temperature
changes, and drought. Decomposition and respiration of CO2 back to the
atmosphere also increase as temperatures warm. Finally, populations of
forest pests such as the spruce beetle, Climate
pine beetle,
change isspruce
occurring,budworm, and

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western United States as a result of
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Climate Change Will Affect Land-Based

Future Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
Ecosystems in a Variety of Ways
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Both the amount and rate of warming will
10% online. in uence the ability of plants
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adapt. to
In addition, temperature
stood rm inchanges
the face of will interact
serious debate andwith
careful
changes in CO2, precipitation, pests, soil characteristics, and other factors.
Tree species, for example, are expectedAsto shiftmakers
decision their respond
rangestonorthward
these risks, theor
upslope, with someDownload Free PDF
current forest types such as oak-hickory expanding,
others such as maple-beech contracting, and and still others
consequences such
of climate as spruce-
change and also is r
disappearing from the United States altogether (Figure 2.7). Experimental
and modeling studies indicate that exposure
decisionsto elevated
being made in 12CO 2 andranging from
sectors,
temperatures can lead to increases in photosynthesis and growth rates in
many plant species, although at higher temperatures this trend may
reverse. Projections suggest that forestAdvancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a
productivity will increase with
elevated CO2 and climate warming, especially in young forests
national, multidisciplinary researchon fertile
e ort aimed at
soils where water is adequate. Where water is scarce and drought is
expected to increase, or where pests increase in to
are identi ed response
support thisto warming,
scienti c enterprise. In
addition, leaders
however, forest productivity is projected to decrease. of federal climate research should
Some analyses have indicated the possibility
analyticalof major
tools, investchanges in and improve
in human capital,
ecosystems due to the combined effects of changes in temperature and
precipitation, potentially affect-

×
 Buy Paperback | $49.95human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in

FIGURE 2.7 Potential changes inWhile thenoting
geographic
that there ranges of to learn and
is always more
the dominant forest types
MyNAP members save in the eastern United States under
10% online.
projections of future climate change.
supportedMany forest
by multiple linestypes shiftand have
of evidence
their ranges northward or shrink in areas, while some
expand their areas. For further details see Figure 9.2.
SOURCE: USGCRP (2001).
Download Free PDF
ing ecosystem productivity, carbon cycling, and the composition of plant
communities. For example, drier conditions in to
agriculture the Amazon could
transportation, to identify decisions
being made in response to climate
potentially lead to increased susceptibility to re, lower productivity, change. and
shifts from forest to savanna systems inAdvancing

that region. The
the Science strong
of Climate warming
Change calls for a
observed across the Arctic is already leading to poleward shifts of boreala
single federal entity or program to coordinate
forests into regions formerly covered in tundra,
improving bothand these shifts
understanding are
and responses to
expected to continue. climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Climate Change Is Also Affecting Ocean Ecosystems
Just as on land, ranges of many marineanalytical
animals tools,
have invest in human
shifted capital, and in
poleward improve
recent decades (Figure 2.8). The pace ofpartnerships
these changes can be faster
with action-oriented programs.in the
sea because of the high mobility of many marine species. Changes have
also been observed in ocean productivity, which measures the
photosynthetic activity of organisms at the base of the marine food web.
Model projections suggest that some habitats, such as polar seas and areas
with coastal upwelling, may see increases in productivity as climate change
progresses. The majority of ocean areas, however, are projected to
experience declines in productivity as warm, nutrient-poor surface water
is increasingly isolated from the colder, nutrient-rich water below. Even in
×
highly productive coastal upwelling systems, it is possible that even
Advancing the
stronger Sciencecould
upwelling of Climate Change
draw up deeper, low-oxygen (hy-


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MyNAP members save
FIGURE 2.8 Observed northward shift of marine species in
the Bering Sea between the years 1982 and 2006. The
average shift among the speciesresearch
examined was understanding of the causes
that improves
approximately 19 miles north ofanditsconsequences
1982 location of climate
(redchange
line). and also is
For further details see Figure 9.3. SOURCES:
national, Mueter
and international andThe book identi es
levels.
Litzow, (2008); USGCRP (2009a).decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from

poxic) water, creating dead zones where few species can survive. Such
hypoxic dead zones have recently appeared
improvingoffboth
theunderstanding
coasts of Oregon andto
and responses
Washington. climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Continued losses of sea ice and stronger warming
redouble e orts at higher
to deploy latitudes are
a comprehensive climate
expected to drive major habitat alterations in Arctic ecosystems. Ice
dynamics plays an important role in ocean productivity,
linkages between research and
andsea ice is
decisions by a
forming
partnerships
critical habitat for many species, including birdswith
andaction-oriented
mammals.programs.
Although
the details are uncertain, polar ecosystems are at the threshold of major
ecosystem changes due to climate change. Without careful management,
these changes may be exacerbated by expanding human uses in polar seas
as sea ice continues to decline.
In the tropics, warm temperatures pose a bleaching threat to corals. Corals

are animals, but they depend on algae growing in their tissues for much of
their nutrition. This tight symbiotic relationship can be disrupted by
×
extreme temperatures, which can cause corals to eject the algae and
Advancing
“bleach.”the Science
Mass of Climate
bleaching events,Change
which often lead to coral death, have
occurred with increasing frequency over recent decades associated with
severe warming events. In the most extreme case, the strong El Niño event
of 1998, an estimated 16 percent of the Climate
world’s coral
change reefs died.
is occurring, Models
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humanwarming
activities, andscenarios
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depends
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 Are Becoming More Acidic, Which Poses

The Oceans Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
Major Risks for Ocean Ecosystems
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One of the most
10%certain
online. outcomes from increasing CO concentrations in
supported by multiple2lines of evidence and have
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the atmosphere is or
theRegister
acidi tocation of the
stoodworld’s oceans.
rm in the Roughly
face of serious debateone-
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quarter of the CO2 currently released by human activities is absorbed in
the sea. While some of the CO2 is takenAsup by marine
decision organisms,
makers respond to these most if it
risks, the
combines with water to formFree PDF acid. The result has been a roughly
carbonic research that improves understanding of the causes
30 percent increase in ocean acidity since preindustrial
and consequences times.
of climate If CO
change and2also is
emissions continue to increase at present rates,
national, ocean acidi
and international cation
levels. The bookcould
identi es
intensify by three to four times this amount bybeing
decisions themade
endinof12this century.
sectors, In
ranging from
addition, ocean acidi cation may reduce the ability of the ocean to take up
CO2; this represents a positive feedback on global warming because it
would lead to faster CO2 accumulationsingle
in the atmosphere.
federal entity or program to coordinate a
Although the acidi cation of the sea is improving both understanding and responses to
highly certain, the response of
ocean ecosystems to changing ocean chemistry
are identi ed is highlythis
to support uncertain.
addition, leaders of federal
Acidi cation can disrupt many biological processes, including the climate research
ratesshould
at
which marine animals can form shells. observing
Coral reefs system,are particularly
improve sensitive.
climate models and other
If atmospheric CO2 levels reach twice their preindustrial values, the improve
resulting increase in acidity could mean there will
partnerships withbe few placesprograms.
action-oriented in the
ocean that can sustain coral growth. Polar seas could also experience
major changes, since many of the species at the base of the food web may
be disrupted. Hence, ocean acidi cation poses a major threat to ocean
ecosystems, but the details are only beginning to be understood. A
separate report, Ocean Acidi cation: A National Strategy to Meet the
×
Challenges of a Changing Ocean (NRC, 2010f), examines ocean acidi cation
and its potential of Climate
impacts Change
in further detail.
Ecosystems Play a Key Role in the Global Carbon

Cycle

Plants on land and in the ocean take upmany cases is
carbon already aphotosynthesis
during ecting--a broad range of
and
release it through respiration. Experimental research
these conclusions has shown
is provided that the
in Advancing some
Science
land ecosystems respond to higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by
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modulating the carbon sink provided by terrestrial ecosystems include
species redistributions and changes in growing season lengths, drought,
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factors, projections of the future land-based carbon sink are uncertain.
Changes in terrestrial ecosystems could also potentially lead to abrupt

climate changes. For example, increasing temperatures are leading to
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warming and thawing of permafrost (frozen soils) across the northern
Advancing theThese
latitudes. Science of Climate
frozen Change
soils store vast amounts of carbon. As permafrost
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Several Human Interventions Have Been Proposed
to Increase Carbon Storage in Natural Ecosystems
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by human activities. improving both understanding and responses to
On land, changes in land use and land cover
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emissions. Today, emissions from tropical deforestation
analytical and other
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in land use account for around 17 percent of annual CO2 emissions. Land
management practices that reduce deforestation and degradation, or that
enhance storage of carbon in land ecosystems, could provide potentially
low-cost options to reduce GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and
thus limit the magnitude of future climate change. Changes in land use can
also in uence temperatures by changing the re ective properties of the
Earth’s surface and by altering rates of transpiration of water. The overall
potential to limit climate change through management of land and ocean
ecosystems has not been thoroughly evaluated, however.
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Research Needs for Advancing Science on
Advancing the Science ofEcosystems
Ecosystems, Climate Change
Services, and Biodiversity
in the Context of Climate Change
Research is needed to better understand and project the impacts of
climate change on ecosystems, ecosystem services, and biodiversity and to in
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biodiversity. Download Free PDF nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
Evaluate the potential climate feedbacks associated with changes in
ecosystems and biodiversity on land and
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ecosystems and their interactionsclimate
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the climate system. research themes
Seven cross-cutting
AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES, AND FOOD observing system, improve climate models and other
PRODUCTION 12 invest in human capital, and improve

analytical tools,
Meeting the food needs of a still-growing and more af uent global human
population presents a key challenge. Climate change increases the
complexity of this challenge because of its multiple impacts on agricultural
crops, livestock, and sheries. Agricultural management may also provide
opportunities to reduce net human GHG emissions.
Agricultural Crops Will Be In uenced in Multiple

Ways by Climate Change
×
Temperature, length of growing season, atmospheric CO2 levels, water
availability, of Climate
pests, disease, Changeweather events can all affect crop
and extreme
growth and yields to varying degrees—and sometimes in con icting ways—
depending on location, agricultural system, and the degree of warming. For
example, growth of some heat-loving crop Climateplants
changesuch as melons
is occurring, is causedand
largely by
sweet potatoes willBuy  Paperback
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to increasing temperatures
and longer growing seasons in the United human States. Other
and natural crops,
systems. including
grains and soybeans, respond negatively, both in vegetative growth and Science
these conclusions is provided in Advancing the
seed production, toBuy 

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small |increases
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suite Many crop
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such as wheat and soybeans, respond positively to the fertilization effectand
While noting that there is always more to learn of
MyNAP members
increases in atmospheric CO2save
, potentially offsetting some of the negative
10% online.
effects of warming. supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
In the United States, many northern states are projected to experience
increases in some crop yields over the As decision makers respond to these risks, the
next several decades, while in the
Midwest and southern Great Plains, temperature increases
research that improves and possible
understanding of the causes
and consequences of climate
precipitation decreases may decrease yields unless measures are taken change and also to
is
adapt. Likewise, global-scale studies suggest
national, that
and international levels. The book identi es
12 For additional discussion and references, seetoChapter
agriculture 10 in
transportation, Part IIdecisions
to identify of
the report. being made in response to climate change.

moderate warming of 1.8°F to 5.4°F (1°Cimproving
to 3°C),bothincreases in CO
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Projections also suggest that global food production is likely to decrease
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include critical factors such as changes in extreme events (especially
intense rainfall and drought), pests and disease, and water supplies, all of
which have the potential to signi cantly affect agricultural production.
Forestry and Livestock Will Also Be Affected by

Climate Change
Commercial forestry will be affected by factors similar to those affecting
crop production and natural forest ecosystems. Climate models project
×
that global timber production will increase and shift poleward due to
Advancing
changesthe Science of Climate
in temperature, longer Change
growing seasons, and enhanced CO2.
However, as with projections of agricultural changes, these models
typically exclude potentially important factors such as pests, diseases, and
water availability, making the results somewhat uncertain.

Livestock respond to climate change directly through heat and humidity
stresses and are affected indirectly by changes in forage
these conclusions quantity
is provided andthe Science
in Advancing
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and disease.
Because heat stress reduces milk
production, weight gain, and reproduction in livestock,
While noting the
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10% online. especially withsupported
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Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and
Aquaculture Are Less Well Understood
The impacts of climate change on seafood are far lessof well
and consequences climateknown
change andthanalso is
impacts on agriculture. Year-to-year climate
useful to variations
decision makers cause large
at the local, regional,
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posed a challenge for effective sheriesagriculture
management. Similar
to transportation, sensitivities
to identify decisions
to longer time-scale variations in climate have been documented in a wide
range of sh species around the globe. Advancing
Shifts in sheries
the Science distributions
of Climate Change calls forare
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expected to be most pronounced for U.S. sheries in the North Paci c and
North Atlantic, since future temperature increases
improving are projected
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climate change.
greatest at these higher latitudes and warming willSeven cross-cutting
be coupled toresearch
majorthemes
habitat changes driven by reduced sea addition,
ice. The effects
leaders of ocean
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acidi cation (described above) may be even more importantcomprehensive
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than the effects of rising temperatures,analytical
although tools,they
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more uncertain. Many shed species, including invertebrates like oysters,
clams, and scallops, produce shells as adults or as larvae, and shell
production
could be compromised by increased acidi cation. Other species shed by

humans rely on shelled plankton as their primary food source, and
projected declines in these plankton species could have major impacts on
shed species higher in the food chain. Finally, acidi cation can disrupt a
variety of physiological processes beyond the production of shells.
Freshwater
Advancing sheriesof
the Science face climate
Climate challenges similar to those of marine
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sheries. Complex interactions among multiple factors such as elevated
temperature, reduced dissolved oxygen, increased strati cation of lakes,
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$49.95 and make
human activities, projections
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lake levels, and extreme weather events, coupled
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freshwater sh to move 
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between| $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
watersheds, will affect freshwater
sheries, but detailed projections are highly uncertain.
While noting that there Cold-water
is always more tospecies
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members save particularly sensitive.
Aquaculture is growing
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stood rm States and
in the face of elsewhere
serious debateas
andthe
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availability of wild seafood declines. Impacts of climate change on
aquaculture are not well studied, but ocean acidi
As decision cation
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Download Free PDF tonation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
of moving aquaculture infrastructure new locations as sh habitats shift
may pose signi cant challenges to aquaculture production.
Science for Adaptation in Agricultural Systems decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from
The ability of farmers and the food production,
being made inprocessing, and change.
response to climate
distribution system to adapt to climate change will to a large extent
determine the impacts of climate change onfederal
single foodentity
production.
or program to Proposed
coordinate a
national, multidisciplinary research
short-term adaptation strategies include changes in farming locations; e ort aimed at
shifts in planting dates and crop varieties; increasing
climate change. Seven storage capacity,
are identimanagement;
irrigation and chemical application; livestock ed to support this scienti c enterprise. In
and broader-
level efforts such as investments in agricultural research
redouble e orts to deploy(see the
companion report Adapting to the Impacts of Climate
observing Change
system, improve [NRC,
climate models 2010a]).
and other
However, not all farmers have access tolinkages
thesebetween
strategies. Small farms,
research and decisions by forming
farmers with substantial debt, and farmers without
partnerships their own land
with action-oriented are
programs.
much more likely to suffer large negative impacts on their livelihoods.
Models that incorporate possible responses of farmers and markets to

climate change generally project only small impacts on the agricultural
economy of the United States. However, these models do not incorporate
costs of adaptation, rates of technological change, changes in pests or
diseases, or extreme events like heat waves, heavy rainfall,
×
and ooding. Further research will thus be needed to develop a
comprehensive of Climate
and detailed Change
understanding of how climate change will
in uence U.S. agricultural production and economics. Understanding of
international food supplies, distribution, trade, and food security also
remains quite limited. Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by

Food Security
Food security—which Buyincludes
Ebook |availability of food, access
part of ato food, safety of
 $39.99of Climate Change, congressionally requested
the food system, and resilience to income or food price shocks—is affected
by climate change as well as a multitude thatofthe
nonclimatic
scienti c processfactors such as
is never closed, the book
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economic markets and agricultural policies.
10% online. Because the global food
system is interconnected, it is
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stood to rmview U.S.offood
in the face serioussecurity
debate andin careful
isolation. Food security in the developing world affects global political
stability and, thereby, U.S. national security (seemakers
As decision below). Studies
respond that
to these risks, the
project the numberDownload
of peopleFree PDF of nation's
at risk hunger scienti
from c enterprise
climatecan contribute
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highly uncertain but indicate that the outcome depends
and consequences strongly
of climate change on and also is
socioeconomic development, since af useful uence to decision
tends makers
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vulnerability.
Modifying Food Production Systems Could agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions
Potentially Help Limit the Magnitude of Future
Climate Change
Food production systems are not only affected by understanding
improving both climate change; they also
and responses to
contribute to it through GHG emissions of CO2, CH4 (primarily from
livestock and ooded rice paddies), andaddition,
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Recent global assessments conclude that redouble e orts to deploy
agriculture a comprehensive
accounts for about climate
10
to 12 percent of total global human emissions of GHGs.
analytical tools, invest inWith
humanthe
intensi cation of agriculture that will be required to feed the world’sby forming
growing and increasingly af uent population, these emissions are
projected to increase. Many options are available to manage agricultural
and livestock systems to reduce emissions, such as changes in feed and
feeding practices, manure management, and more ef cient fertilizer
application. At a landscape level, management of agricultural lands
presents opportunities to reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by
sequestering soil carbon, shifting to crops with higher carbon storage
potential, and reducing forest clearing for agricultural expansion. Neither
×
the factors that affect the ability of farmers to adopt these types of
management of Climate
practices Change and institutions that would
nor the incentives
foster adaptation have been well studied.

Buy Paperback | $49.95human activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
Research Needs for Advancing Science on
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production in the
 Context of Climate Change

A broad range of research is needed tothat understand the impacts
the scienti c process of climate
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change on food
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online. systems and to develop strategies that assist in
both limitingLogin
the magnitude of climate stood
or Register to change rm inthrough
the face ofmanagement
save! evaluation of alternative
practices and reducing vulnerability and increasing adaptive explanations.
capacity in
regions and populations in the United States and
As decision other
makers parts
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to these world.
risks, the
Download
Some critical research needs,Free nation's
PDF are
which scienti in
explored c enterprise
furthercan contribute
detail in through
Chapter 10, are listed below. and consequences of climate change and also is
Improve understanding and models of response
national, of agricultural
and international levels. The bookcrops
identi es
and sheries to climate and otheragriculture
environmental changes.
to transportation, to identify decisions
Expand observing and monitoringbeing
systems.
made in response to climate change.
Assess food security and vulnerability in the context of climate

change. single federal entity or program to coordinate a
Develop approaches to evaluate trade-offs and synergies in managing
agricultural lands and in managingclimate
ocean resources.
change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Develop and improve technologies, management strategies, and
institutions to reduce GHG emissions from
redouble agriculture
e orts and sheries
to deploy a comprehensive climate
observing
and to enhance adaptation to climate system, improve climate models and other
change.
PUBLIC HEALTH13
Weather and climate in uence the distribution and incidence of a variety
of public health outcomes. Indeed, any health outcome that is in uenced
by environmental conditions may be impacted by a changing climate.
However, the causal chain linking climate change to shifting patterns of
health threats and outcomes is complicated by factors such as wealth,
distribution of income, status of public health infrastructure, provision of
preventive and acute medical care, and access to and appropriate use of
×
health care information. Additionally, the severity of future health impacts
will be strongly of Climate
in uenced Change changes in nonclimatic factors as
by concurrent
well as strategies to limit and adapt to climate change.
Extreme TemperaturesClimate
andchange
Thermal Stress
is occurring, is caused largely by

Heat waves are the leading causes of weather-related
many cases is alreadymorbidity andrange of
a ecting--a broad

mortality in the United States, and hot days and hot nights have become
more frequent and more
Buy Ebook | $39.99
13 For additional discussion and references, see that
While noting Chapter
there is 11 in Part
always more II
to of
learn and
the report.MyNAP members save that the scienti c process is never closed, the book
intense in recent decades. Their frequency, intensity, and duration are
projected to increase, especially undernation's
the higher warming scenarios.
Download Free PDF
Warming temperatures may also reduce exposure
research and health
that improves impacts
associated with cold temperatures, although the extent of any reduction is
highly uncertain, and analyses and projections ofinternational
national, and the impacts levels.of
The book identi es
temperature changes on human health are complicated by other factors. In
particular, death rates depend on a range
beingof circumstances
made other
in response to climate than
change.
temperature, including housing characteristics and personal behaviors,
and these have not been extensively studied in the
single federal context
entity of to
or program future
coordinate a
climate projections. national, multidisciplinary research e ort aimed at
Severe Weather
redouble etornadoes,
Deaths and physical injuries from hurricanes, orts to deploy aoods,
comprehensive
and climate
wild re occur annually across the United States.
analytical tools,Direct
invest in morbidity
human capital,and
and improve
mortality increase with the intensity and duration of such events. Asbya forming
general trend, climate change will lead to an increase in the intensity of
rainfall and the frequency of heat waves, ooding, and wild re.
Uncertainties remain in projections of future storm patterns, including
hurricanes. The number of deaths and injuries that result from all of these
extreme events can be decreased through advanced warning and
preparation. Changes in severe weather events may also lead to increases
in diarrheal disease and increased incidence of respiratory symptoms,
particularly in developing countries. Mental health impacts are often
overlooked in the discussion of climate change and public health. Severe
×
weather often results in increased anxiety, depression, and even
posttraumatic stressof Climate Change
disorder.
Infectious Diseases
The ranges and impacts of a number ofhuman important pathogens may change

Buy Paperback | $49.95activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
as a result of changing temperatures, precipitation,
many cases is alreadyand a extreme events.
ecting--a broad range of
Increasing temperatures may increase or shift the ranges of disease
vectors (and their associated pathogens), including
Change,mosquitoes (malaria,

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(Rocky
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MyNAP members save
shows that
(hantavirus and leptospirosis). Consequently, hypotheses about
additional peopleclimate
willchange
be are
exposed to infectious diseases
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partsrmofinthe world.
the face Several
pathogens that cause food-and waterborne
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Air Quality being made in response to climate change.
Poor air quality—speci cally increased Advancing the Scienceozone

ground-level of Climate Change calls
and/or for a
aerosol
concentrations—results in increased incidence of respiratory
national, multidisciplinary illness.
research For at
e ort aimed
improvingwith
example, acute ozone exposure is associated both understanding and responses to
increased hospital
admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive
are identi edpulmonary
to support this disease, asthma,
and allergic rhinitis, and also with premature mortality.
addition, leaders Temperature
of federal climate researchand
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ozone concentrations are closely connected; projected increases in
temperatures in coming decades may increase theinvest
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ozone events and related health effects. Climate change could also affect
local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates,
boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and
changes in air ow patterns that govern pollutant transport. In addition to
air quality problems driven by pollution, preliminary evidence suggests
that allergen production by species such as ragweed increases with high
temperature and/or high CO2 concentration.
×
The relationship between climate change, air quality, and public health is
Advancing
further the Science of
complicated byClimate
the fact Change
that policies designed to limit the
magnitude of climate change may be at odds with improving public health
outcomes. For example, reducing aerosol concentrations would reduce air
pollution–related health impacts, but the resulting
Climate change ischanges
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Vulnerable Populations
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Vulnerability to the public health challenges discussedknown above
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within and between populations. Overall, that older adults,
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and those with chronic medical conditionsshows tend
that hypotheses
to be more about sensitive
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health impacts of climate
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stood rm in the varies geographically,
face of with
the status of save!
public health infrastructure playing
evaluation a large explanations.
of alternative role in
determining vulnerability differences between
As decision populations.
makers respond to these risks, the
Download Free PDF
Research Needs for Advancing Science on Climate
Change and Public Health

Additional research is needed to clarifydecisions being made in 12 sectors,
exposure-response ranging from
relationships
and impacts of climate change on human health,
being made in identify
response toeffective and
climate change.
ef cient adaptation options, and quantify the trade-offs and co-bene ts
associated with responses to climate change in other
single federal entity orsectors.
program toSome keya
coordinate
national, multidisciplinary
research needs, which are explored in further detail in Chapterresearch 11,
e ort aimed at
include
the following: climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes
Systematically assess current andanalytical
projected tools,health
invest in risks
human associated
with climate change. linkages between research and decisions by forming
Carry out research on the feedbacks and interactions between air
quality and climate change.
Characterize the differential vulnerabilities of particular populations
to climate-related impacts and the multiple stressors they already
face or may encounter in the future.
Identify effective, ef cient, and fair adaptation measures to deal with
health impacts of climate change.
Develop integrated approaches to evaluate ancillary health bene ts
(and unintended consequences) of actions to limit or adapt to climate
×
change.
Develop better of Climate Change
understanding of informing, communicating with, and
educating the public and health professionals as an adaptation
strategy.
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many cases is already a ecting--a 14
CITIES AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT broad range of
Cities now house the majority of the world’s population and are expected

to continue to grow more rapidly than suite
nonurban
of studiesareas.
known asCities and
America's other
Climate Choices.
built-up areas contribute to global climate change through their
MyNAP members save
consumption—including construction materials, energy,aboutwater, and food—
shows that hypotheses climate change are
and their role as the focus for most industrial production. They also
contribute tosave!
local climate change via the positive
evaluation feedbacks
of alternative on warming
explanations.
associated with the built environment. Given their concentration of people,
industry, and infrastructure, cities and built environments are expected to
research
face signi cant direct and indirect impacts that improves
from climateunderstanding
change. These of the causes
include impacts associated with sea level rise
useful because
to decision a large
makers at the number of
local, regional,
cities in the United States and worldwide are and
national, located in coastal
international zones.
levels. The Justes
book identi
as cities help drive climate change, cities also offer opportunities for
limiting the magnitude of climate change,beingand
mademany cities
in response have change.
to climate also started
to consider options for adapting to climate change.
Cities Play a Major Role in Driving Climate Change
As the venue for the majority of the world’s production
are identi ed to supportand consumption,
cities are the geographical loci of energy use,leaders
addition, whichof is the climate
federal primary source
research should
of GHG emissions. This role of cities grows even more signi cant when
their environmental footprint is considered,
analyticalincluding,
tools, invest infor example,
human theimprove
capital, and
impact of urban dwellers’ emissions on local and regional air pollution and
of their materials consumption on distant deforestation.
14 For additional discussion and references, see Chapter 12 in Part II of
the report.
Built-up areas also change the re ectivity of the terrestrial surface,

primarily through increased dark surfaces (e.g., roads, rooftops), which
contribute to the urban heat island effect.
×
Impacts of Climate Change on Cities and Other
Advancing the Science of Climate
Human Change
Settlements
Without effective steps to limit and adapt to climate change, cities will face
a number of climate-related challenges. For example, an increase in warm
temperature extremes, coupled with the heat islandand effect, couldcantincrease

Buy Paperback | $49.95human
many
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heat-related health problems, especially for vulnerable populations.range of
a ecting--a broad
risks for--and in

Temperature increases will also increase periods
these conclusionsof ispeak energy
provided demands
and, in conjunctionBuy withEbook
other | climate changes, are expected to worsen
 $39.99of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
urban air pollution. In many cases, thisWhilepollution could extend well beyond
noting that there is always more to learn and
the boundaries of cities, potentially affecting ecosystems
that the scienti c process isand
nevercrop
closed, the book
MyNAP members save
production on regional
10% online. scales. Sea levelsupported
rise and more intense storm surges
by multiple lines of evidence and have
are of concern for or
Login the 635 million
Register to people worldwide
stood rm in the face who live less
of serious debatethan 33
and careful
save!
feet (10 meters) above sea level, many of evaluation
them in of alternative
coastal explanations.
cities. Cities and
settlements adjacent to re-prone habitats are makers
As decision projected respondtotoconfront
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increasing threats of Download
re, andFree nation'ssuch
PDF cities,
desert scientiasc enterprise
those incan thecontribute
American through
West, will likely confront water shortages. and consequences of climate change and also is
Potential for Changes in Cities to Limit Future decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from
Climate Change being made in response to climate change.
As the geographical focus of most production and consumption, cities offer

opportunities to reduce GHG emissions in both
single federalabsolute and per
entity or program capitaa
to coordinate
terms, while also improving air quality and urban heat island effects. Many
of these opportunities are ultimately tied to change.
climate the design and geometry
Seven cross-cutting researchofthemes
cities, which can foster more or less energy use and emissions per capita In
are identi ed to support this scienti c enterprise.
as well as shape urban ecosystem function and
redouble e biotic diversity.
orts to deploy Alteringclimate
a comprehensive
surface re ectivity through changes inobserving
impervioussystem,features
improve climate
(suchmodels and other
as white
and green roofs) is another potential action
linkagesthat
betweenwarrants
research consideration in
and decisions by forming
many cities (see Chapter 15). partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Adapting to Climate Change in Cities

Cities face all the challenges that any other sector encounters in regard to
adaptation, but research on urban adaptation has only recently begun in
earnest. Attention to date has focused on infrastructure and strategies
such as emergency preparedness and response. In addition, where
resource stresses have already mounted, such as water shortages in the
×
American West, local and regional entities have begun planning to address
Advancing the Sciencetoofclimate
their vulnerability Climate Change
change in the context of speci c natural
resources. Understanding options for adaptation and preparing to adapt in


cities requires attention to differences
Buy Paperback in vulnerability
| $49.95
human among
activities, and poses signi cant risks for--and in
subpopulations (e.g., different economic groups, age groups) and across
cities of different size, structure, and location.

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Research Needs for Advancing Science
While noting that thereon Cities
is always and
more to learn and
the Built
MyNAPEnvironment
members save inshows
thethat Context
hypotheses ofaboutClimate
climate change are
10% online.
Change
Research on thesave!special vulnerabilities evaluation
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climate change is needed, as is research As on the makers
decision response
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to these available
risks, the
Download
for cities to limit the Free of
magnitude PDF nation's
climate scienti cor
change enterprise
adaptcan to contribute
its impacts.through
Some key research needs, which are explored in further
and consequences detail
of climate in Chapter
change and also is
12, include the following: useful to decision makers at the local, regional,
Characterize and quantify the contributions of urban areas to both
local and global changes in climate.
Assess the vulnerability of cities and their residents to climate change,

including the relative vulnerabilitysingle
of different
federal entity populations and
different urban forms (e.g., design, geometry, and infrastructure) and
con gurations relative to other human settlements.
Develop and test approaches for limiting and adapting to climate
change in the urban context, including,
redoublefor example,
e orts to deploy athe ef cacy of
comprehensive climate
and social considerations involvedobserving system, and
in adoption improve climate models and other
implementation of
white and green roofs, landscape architecture, smartand
linkages between research growth, and
decisions by forming
changing rural-urban socioeconomic and political
partnerships linkages.
Improve understanding of the links between air quality and climate

change, including measurements, modeling, and analyses of
socioeconomic bene ts and trade-offs associated with different GHG
emissions-reduction strategies in the context of air quality, especially
strategies that may simultaneously bene t both climate and air
quality.
Improve understanding of urban governance capacity and develop
effective decision-support tools and approaches for decision making
×
under uncertainty, especially when multiple governance units may be
involved.
TRANSPORTATION15
In the United States, 

Buy
thePaperback | $49.95
transport of
goods andisservices
many cases is highly
already a ecting--a reliant
broad range of
on a single fuel—petroleum—about 60 percent of which is imported. case for
human and natural systems. The compelling
Almost 28 percent of U.S. GHG emissions can be attributed to the

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transportation sector, with the overwhelm-
15 For additional discussion and references,
that thesee Chapter
scienti c process13 in Part
is never II of
closed, the book
MyNAP members save
the report.10% online. supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
As decision
ing share in the form of CO2 emitted from makers respond
combustion to these risks, the
of petroleum-based
fuels. The transportation sector also emits other
research pollutants
that improves that endanger
human health. The transportation sector thus stands at the nexus of also is
and consequences of climate change and
climate change, human health, economic growth,
national, and national
and international security.
levels. The book identi es
Transportation Is a Major Driver of Climate Change being made in response to climate change.
Between 1970 and 2007, U.S. transportation energy

Advancing useof and
the Science Climateaccompanying
Change calls for a
GHG emissions nearly doubled. This occurred even as the ef ciency of
light- and heavy-duty vehicles and aircraft increased,
improving because
both understanding andincreases
responses toin
ef ciency were offset by an even largerclimate
growthchange. Seven cross-cutting
in overall research themes
transportation
activity. Additionally, although the fuel addition,
ef ciency leadersofofpassenger
federal climatevehicles
research should
improved, a large part of this improvement was offset by increases in climate
redouble e orts to deploy a comprehensive
vehicle size and weight, so the averageanalytical
fuel economy (miles per gallon) of
new vehicles has been essentially stagnant for
linkages two decades.
between research and decisions by forming
Limiting Transportation-Related Emissions

Reducing the total volume of transportation activity is one way to limit
GHG emissions from this sector. The most obvious target for such
reductions is the transport of passengers and goods on highways, which is
responsible for 75 percent of the energy used in transportation. Reducing
traf c volume is dif cult, however, in light of the interconnections among
such factors as choices about where to live and work, the built
×
environment (see Chapter 12), and the availability and exibility of
transportation of Climate Change
options.
Improving the fuel economy of highway vehicles and shifting

transportation activities away from highways and to modes that have the
potential to be more 
Buy ef Paperback
cient (such |as$49.95
rail
human and public
activities, andtransit)
poses signiarecantalso
risks for--and in
important approaches to reducing emissions. However, whether an
alternative mode provides net emissions bene
these t depends
conclusions oninhow
is provided it isthe
Advancing used.
Science
For example, except 
Buyin aEbook | $39.99
few dense of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
urban corridors, such as in New York
City, load factors are not high enough to make
While notingpublic
that theretransit
is alwaysless
moreenergy
to learn and
and emissions intensive
MyNAP members passenger-mile) than passenger cars, the book
(per save that the scienti c process is never closed,
especially outside of rush hours. The “container
10% online. supported byrevolution”—a shiftand
multiple lines of evidence fromhave
truck to rail (and ocean) carriers—has increased ef ciency of the
transportation save! evaluation of alternative explanations.

of goods. The NRC’s Transportation Research Board is
currently conducting an in-depth analysis of the
As decision technical
makers respondpotential
to these risks,for
the
reducing the energy Download PDF nation'sintensity

Freeemissions)
(and hence
of freight movement.
Improving Ef ciency agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions
Many recent studies have pointed out opportunities to improve the
ef ciency of petroleum-fueled vehicles.single
In new
federalvehicles, fuel consumption
entity or program to coordinate a
national, multidisciplinary
(and GHG emissions) per passenger-mile can be reduced by improving research e ort aimed at
today’s gasoline-fueled and diesel oil–fueled vehicles,
climate change. Sevenby shiftingresearch
cross-cutting to hybridthemes
are identi ed to support this scienti
or electric vehicles, and by improving today’s hybrid vehicles. The extent to c enterprise. In
which these changes result in reduced redouble
emissions e ortswill depend
to deploy on consumer
preferences regarding vehicle weight and power.
observing Reductions
system, in models
improve climate emissionsand other
intensity will depend crucially on consumers’ willingness to opt for
constant or reduced vehicle weight andpartnerships
power, so withas not to offset
ef ciency improvements. America’s Energy Future (NRC, 2009d) judged

that considerable reductions in vehicle weight will be required to meet the
newest U.S. fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles. Energy
ef ciency improvements are also under way in commercial passenger
aircraft, but they are not expected to be large enough to counter the
expected growth in demand for air travel over the next several decades.
Alternative Transportation Fuels

×
In addition to improving the ef ciency of vehicles and other transportation
Advancing
modes, the Science
biofuels, of Climate
grid-based Changeand hydrogen fuel cells could
electricity,
supplement or replace current transportation fuels. However, it is
important to consider the full impact of the fuel cycle when considering
such approaches. Emissions are reduced onlychange
Climate if these alternative
is occurring, is causedfuels
largelyare
by

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produced through low-emissions | $49.95
human activities,
Further anddetails
poses signi
cancant
berisks for--and in
found
in Chapter 13 and in the recent report Liquid
human andTransportation
natural systems. The Fuels (NRC,
compelling case for
2009g). these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science

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Climate Change Can Affect Transportation Systems
MyNAP members save
in a Number of Ways
For example, Login
increases in thetonumber or
or Register intensity
stood rm in theof heat
face waves
of serious could
debate and careful
save!
affect thermal evaluation
expansion on bridge joints of alternative
and paved explanations.
surfaces, deform rail
tracks, and reduce the load limits of airplanes
As decision(because warmer
makers respond air
to these risks, the
Downloadlift).
provides less aerodynamic PDF nation's
FreeIncreases scienti ctemperatures
in Arctic enterprise can contribute
are through
associated with thawing of permafrost and andconsequences
accompanying subsidence
of climate change and also ofis
roads, railbeds, runway foundations, and useful to decision On
pipelines. makers
theat other
the local,hand,
regional,
higher Arctic temperatures could provide longer
decisions beingocean
made intransportation
12 sectors, ranging from
seasons and possibly make a northwestagriculture
sea route available. Rising
to transportation, to identifysea
decisions
levels could increase ooding and erosion of transportation infrastructure
in coastal areas, and changes in storm patterns
Advancing thecould
Science lead to Change
of Climate disruptions
calls for ain
transportation services and infrastructure designed for historical climate
conditions. improving both understanding and responses to
Adapting to Climate Changeanalytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve
Engineering options are already available for strengthening
partnerships andprograms.
with action-oriented protecting
transportation facilities such as bridges, ports, roads, and railroads from
coastal storms and ooding. The development and implementation of
technologies that monitor major transportation facilities and
infrastructure is an option, as is the development and reevaluation of
design standards. However, relatively little attention has been given to
evaluation approaches for where and when such options should be
pursued, or to the potential co-bene ts or unintended consequences of
them.
×
Research Needs for Advancing Science on Climate
Advancing the Science Change
of Climateand
Change
Transportation
Transportation systems contribute to GHG emissions and are affected by
the resultant climate changes. Research is needed to better understand the
nature of these impacts as well as wayshuman
to reduce
activities,GHG emissions
signi cantfrom the in

transportation sector. Some key research manyneeds,
and poses
cases is already
whicha areecting--a
risks for--and
broad range
explored in of
further detail in Chapter 13, include thethese
following:
conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science

Improve understanding of what controls the volume
suite of studies of transportation
activity and what strategies might be available to reduce volume.
MyNAP members save
Conduct research on the most promising shows that strategies forclimate
hypotheses about promoting the
change are
use of less fuel-intensive modes of transportation.
Continue efforts
save! to improve transportation ef ciency.
Accelerate the development and deployment of alternative propulsion
systems, fuels,Download
and supporting infrastructure.
Advance understanding of how climate researchchange
that improves
willunderstanding
impact of the causes
transportation systems and develop approaches
useful for adapting
to decision makers to these
impacts. national, and international levels. The book identi es
ENERGY SUPPLY AND USE16
The United States is responsible for 20 percent of worldwide energy
consumption, and 86 percent of the domestic energy
improving both supply and
understanding comes fromto
responses
combustion of fossil fuels. The CO2 emitted by these activities constitutes
a signi cant portion of total U.S. GHG emissions.
addition, leadersConsiderable
of federal climateresearch
research should
has focused on the role of the energy sector in emissions of GHGs and on
the development of technologies and strategies that
analytical tools, could
invest result
in human inand improve
capital,
linkages between
increased energy ef ciency as well as energy sources research
thatand decisions
release by forming
fewer or
no GHGs. Another potential strategy for reducing energy-related
emissions—and a key research topic—capturing CO2 during or after
combustion and sequestering it from the atmo-
the report.
×
sphere. A small amount of research has also focused on the implications of
deployment of technologies
of energy Climate Change
on human and environmental systems.
Energy Ef ciency
Many proposed strategies to limit the magnitude of future climate change

focus on increasing energy ef ciency, especially
many cases is in theanear
already term.
ecting--a broadA range of
substantial body of research backs up the technical potential for large
energy ef ciency improvements. For example, the recent
part of areport Real requested

Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change,
suite of States
Prospects for Energy Ef ciency in the United studies known
(NRC,
congressionally
as 2009c)
America's Climate
includedChoices.
a
comprehensive review of information on thatthe performance,
the scienti costs,
c process is never andthe
closed, GHG
book
MyNAP members save
shows
emissions reducing potential of different that hypotheses
energy ef cient about climate change and
technologies are
processes forLogin
residential andtocommercial
or Register stoodbuildings, industry,
rm in the face of serious and
debate and careful
transportation.

While a number of Download
proven technologies are available,
Free PDF nation's a hostcan
scienti c enterprise ofcontribute
economic, through
behavioral, and institutional factors have hampered the United States’ causes
research that improves understanding of the
ability to realize these ef ciency improvements andmakers
useful to decision associated emissions
national, and international levels.
reductions. Many of these factors have been characterized in the scienti The book identices
literature (see Chapter 14), and while research
agriculture has shed some
to transportation, light on
to identify ways
decisions
to overcome these barriers, more workbeingis needed. For example,
made in response input from
to climate change.
social science research can inform the Advancing

design theof Science
policies, programs,
of Climate Change callsandfor a
incentives that are more consistent with knowledge
single federal entityabout
or programhuman behavior
to coordinate a
and consumer choices. improving both understanding and responses to
Low-Carbon Fuels for Electricity Production
Energy systems that do not rely on fossil fuels and will ultimately be
needed to limit the magnitude of futureanalytical
climate change.
tools, Switching
invest in human from
one fossil fuel to another having lower emissions (e.g., from coal to natural
gas for power generation) also remains an important near-term option.
Increasing the ef ciency of power generation (for example, by adding
combined-cycle technology to natural gas-fueled plants) can also
contribute to lower carbon emissions per unit of energy produced.
However, greater use of technologies with low or zero emissions would be
needed to dramatically reduce emissions. These technologies include
nuclear energy—which currently provides about 20 percent of U.S.
electricity generation—and technologies that exploit energy from
×
renewable resources, including solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, and
geothermal energy. of Climate Change
Renewable sources currently account for only about 5 percent of total

electricity generation, but there is potential for growth. Many will require
advances in technology  that optimize
Buy Paperback performance
| $49.95 and
human activities, and lower
poses signicost in order
to be widely adopted. Both renew-

able and nuclear technology have the potential to provide a large fraction
of U.S. electricity supply, but there are that
MyNAP members save
a number
the scientiof distribution,
c process cost,therisk,
is never closed, book
and public acceptance
10% online.issues that remain to be addressed.
Capture and Storage of CO2During or After
Combustion
nation's scienti
Download Free PDF
Fossil fuels will probably remain an important part of the U.S. energy
system for the near future, in part because
useful of their abundance
to decision andregional,
makers at the local, the
legacy of infrastructure investments. Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
technology could be used to remove CO 2 from to
agriculture the exhaust gases
transportation, ofdecisions
to identify power
plants fueled by fossil fuels or biomass (as well as exhaust gases from
industrial facilities) and sequester it away fromthethe
Advancing atmosphere
Science in depleted
of Climate Change calls for a
oil and gas reservoirs, coal beds, or deep saline aquifers. Research to
evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental impacts,and
improving both understanding and legal to
responses
aspects, of CCS is a key research need. climate
A numberchange.ofSeven cross-cutting
methods andresearch themes
strategies have also been proposed to capture and sequester
addition, leaders COresearch
of federal climate 2 fromshould
ambient air. Some of these, such as iron redouble e orts to deploy
fertilization of thea comprehensive
oceans, were climate
mentioned above. Other direct carbon analytical
capture technologies,
tools, invest in humansuch
capital,as
andair
improve
ltration, are in early phases of study. linkages between research and decisions by forming
Effects of Climate Change on Energy Systems

Climate change is expected to affect energy system operations in several
ways. For example, increases in energy demands for cooling and decreases
in energy demands for heating can be expected across most parts of the
country. This could drive up peak electricity demand, and thus capacity
needs, but could also reduce the use of heating oil and natural gas in
winter. Water limitations in parts of the country, and increased demand for
×
water for other uses, could result in less water for use in cooling at thermal
Advancing
electricthe Science
plants. of Climate
Increased water Change
temperatures may also reduce the cooling
capacity of available water resources. Water ows at hydropower sites may
increase in some areas and decrease in others. Changes in extreme
weather events—including hurricanes, Climate
oods, and isdroughts—may
change disrupt
occurring, is caused largely by a
wide range of energyBuy 
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system | $49.95
human
operations, activities, and
including poses signi cant
transmission risks for--and
lines,
oil in
and gas platforms, ports, re neries, wind farms,

human and solar
and natural systems.installations.
 on Adapting to Climate Change in the

ResearchBuy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
Energy Sector that the scienti c process is never closed, the book
MyNAP members save
Actions to help
10%the energy sector adaptshows
online.
that hypotheses about climate change are
to the effects of climate change
include increasing regional
Login or Registerelectric
to power
stoodgenerating
rm in the face capacity; accounting
save!
for changes in evaluation infrastructure
patterns of demand; hardening of alternative explanations.
to withstand
extreme events; develop- As decision makers respond to these risks, the
ing electric power generation strategies that
useful to use less
decision water;
makers at theinstituting
local, regional,
contingency planning for reduced hydropower generation; increasing
resilience of fuel and electricity delivery systems;
agriculture and increasing
to transportation, energy
to identify decisions
being made in response to
storage capacity. Research is needed to develop and improve analytical climate change.
frameworks and metrics for identifyingAdvancing

the most vulnerable
the Science of Climateinfrastructure
Change calls for a
and most effective response options. single federal entity or program to coordinate a
Research Needs for Advancing Science in the Energy

Supply and Consumption Sector
Because energy is a dominant component of human
observing GHG emissions,
system, improve climate modelsmajor
and other
investments are needed in both the public and private sectors to accelerate
research, development, and deployment of climate-friendly
partnerships energy
technologies. Research is also needed on behavioral and institutional
barriers to adoption of new energy technologies. It is critical that energy
research not be conducted in an isolated manner, but rather using
integrated approaches and analyses that investigate energy supply and use
within the greater context of efforts to achieve sustainable development
goals and other societal concerns. Some speci c research needs, discussed
in further detail in Chapter 14, include the following:
×
Develop new energy technologies along with effective
Advancing the Science ofstrategies.
implementation Climate Change
Develop improved understanding of behavioral impediments at both
the individual and institutional level to reducing energy demand and
adopting energy ef cient technologies.
Develop analytical 
Buy Paperback
frameworks|to$49.95
human activities,
evaluate and poses and
trade-offs signi synergies
between efforts to limit the magnitude andnatural
human and adapt to climate
systems. change.

17 Climate Choices.
suite of studies known as America's
SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT
MyNAP members save
The term geoengineering refers to deliberate,
shows thatlarge-scale
hypotheses aboutmanipulations of
climate change are
Earth’s environment designed to offset some of the harmful consequences
of GHG-induced
save!climate change. Geoengineering encompasses
evaluation of alternative two
explanations.
different classes of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar
radiation management (SRM) (see Figure 2.9).scienti
Download Free PDF nation's CDRcapproaches (also through
enterprise can contribute
research thatatmospheric
referred to as postemission GHG management, improves understanding of the causes
remediation,
or carbon sequestration methods), several
usefulof
to which were at
decision makers discussed in the
the local, regional,
sections above, involve removal and long-term
national, andsequestration
international levels.of
The book identi es
atmospheric CO2 (or other GHGs) in forests, agricultural systems, or
through direct air capture and geologicbeing made in response to climate change.
17 For Advancing
additional discussion and references, seetheChapter
Science of Climate
15 inChange calls
Part II offor a
the report. national, multidisciplinary research e ort aimed at
storage. Additional details about these addition,

techniquesleaders of federal climate research should
and their implications
can be found in the companion report Limiting the Magnitude
observing system, improve climateofmodels
Futureand other
Climate Change (NRC, 2010c). analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve
SRM approaches, the focus of this section, are those designed to increase
the re ectivity of Earth’s atmosphere or surface in an attempt to offset
some of the effects of GHG-induced climate change. SRM approaches seek
to either reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth’s surface or re ect
additional sunlight back into space. There is a limited body of research on
this topic. While some SRM approaches may be technologically and
economically feasible (only considering direct deployment costs), they all
involve considerable risk and potential for unintended (albeit currently
×
understudied) side effects. It is unclear at the present time, therefore,
Advancing
whetherthe
SRMScience
could of Climate
actually Change
reduce the overall risk associated with climate
change and whether it could realistically be employed as quickly as is
technically possible, especially in light of the full range of environmental
and sociopolitical complexities involved. Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by

Although few, if any, voices are promoting SRM as a near-term alternative
to GHG emissions-reduction strategies, theconclusions
these conceptis has recently
provided been
gaining more serious 
Buy Ebook |as$39.99
attention of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
a possible “backstop” measure, because
strategies attempted to date have failed to yield
While signi
noting that therecant emissions
is always more to learn and
reductions, and climate trends that the scienti c process
may become signi cantly disruptive is never closed,or
the book
MyNAP members save
dangerous. Further research is necessary
10% online. to better
supported understand
by multiple the and
lines of evidence physical
have
science of the impacts and feasibility of SRM as well as issues related to
governance, ethics, social acceptability, and political feasibility of
planetary-scale, intentional manipulation of themakers
As decision climate system.
respond to these risks, the
Download Free PDF
Proposed Solar Radiation Management Approaches
The SRM approaches proposed to datenational,
can beand international
divided intolevels.
fourThe book identi es
broad
categories: space, stratosphere, cloud, agriculture
and surface based. Space-based
proposals involve placing satellites with re ective surfaces in space.
However, to counteract GHG-induced Advancing

warming, 10 square
the Science miles
of Climate ofcalls for a
Change
re ective surface would need to be putsingle
intofederal
orbitentity
each day fortoas
or program long asa
coordinate
CO2 emissions continue to increase at improving
currentboth rates. The most widely
understanding and responses to
discussed option for stratosphere-based SRM
climate is the
change. injection
Seven of sulfate
aerosols, which would re ect some amount of incoming solar radiation
back to space, offsetting some of the warming
redouble e associated
orts to deploy a with GHGs. climate
comprehensive
Another SRM option is to “whiten” clouds, or make them more re ective,
by increasing the number of water droplets
linkagesin the clouds.
between research This couldby forming
and decisions
partnerships
potentially be achieved over remote parts of the with
ocean action-oriented programs. a
by distributing
ne seawater spray in the air. Surface-based options include whitening
roofs in the built environment, and planting more re ective crops. While
these proposals merit

×


Buy Ebook | $39.99
MyNAP members save
FIGURE 2.9 Various geoengineering options, including both
solar radiation management andnation's
carbon dioxide
scienti removal.
c enterprise For through
can contribute
Download Free PDF
further details see Figure 15.1. SOURCE:
research thatLenton
improvesand Vaughnof the causes
understanding
(2009). useful to decision makers at the local, regional,
further research, their ef cacy and environmental consequences are not
currently well understood. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a
Potential Drawbacks and Unintended Consequences
are identi
The overall environmental impacts of SRM ed to support
approaches thisnot
are scienti c enterprise. In
well
characterized, and all proposals have the potential
redouble e orts tofor unintended
deploy negative
consequences. For example, approaches that are
observing intended
system, to offset
improve climate modelsglobally
and other
averaged warming may still lead to local- or regional-scale imbalances in
climate forcing that could produce large regionalwith
partnerships changes. Several
action-oriented analyses
programs.
also suggest that a sudden increase in stratospheric sulfate aerosol could

potentially enhance losses of stratospheric ozone for several decades,
especially in the Arctic. Additionally, since aerosols remain in the
atmosphere for a much shorter time than GHGs, abandonment of aerosol
injection could cause warming at a rate far greater than what is estimated
in the absence of SRM. These and other issues, including the impact of
SRM on precipitation and the hydrologic cycle, are not well understood.
Finally, it should be noted that a major shortcoming of SRM approaches is
×
that, while they have the potential to offset GHG-induced warming of the
atmosphere, of Climate
they would Change
not offset ocean acidi cation or other impacts of
elevated CO2.
Governance Issues

Due to the global nature of SRM, and especially
many cases isconsidering
already a ecting--athebroad
drawbacks
range of

and potential negative impacts, an international framework is needed to
govern SRM research, Buydevelopment, and possible deployment. Important
 Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
components of such a framework include a clear de nition of “climate
emergency” that would trigger deployment that theand criteria
scienti c processfor whether,
is never when,
closed, the book
MyNAP members save
and how SRM10% approaches shows and/or
should be tested that hypotheses about climate
deployed. change are
Unilateral
online. supported by multiple lines of evidence and have
SRM testing or deployment
Login or Registercould
to lead stood
to international
rm in the face oftension, distrust,
serious debate or
and careful
even con ict.save! evaluation of alternative
Public involvement in SRM-related decision explanations.
making,
including research activities, is likewiseAsimportant
decision makers since public
respond acceptance
to these risks, the
is a key issue in informing
Downloadgovernance nation's scienti c enterprise can contribute through
Free PDF decisions.
Ethical Issues
Intentional climate alteration, includingdecisions
SRM, being
raisesmade in 12 cant
signi sectors,issues
ranging with
from
respect to ethics and responsibility. A key
beingconsideration
made in response to inclimate
the deployment
change.
of SRM, as with other responses to climate change, is the distribution of
risks among population groups in single federal entity or program to coordinate a
the present generation, as well as future
aregenerations.
identi ed to support Some have csuggested
this scienti enterprise. In
that SRM research efforts may also pose addition, leaders
a “moral of federal by
hazard” climate research should
detracting
from efforts to reduce GHG emissions observing
or to adapt system,toimprove
the impacts of climate
change. SRM and other geoengineeringanalytical
approaches also
tools, invest raise capital,
in human deep and improve
questions about humans’ relationship with nature, many of which are
beyond the scope of this report.
Research Needs for Advancing Solar Radiation

Management
It is beyond the scope of this report to design a research program on SRM,
or even to determine the scope, scale, priorities, or goals of such a
program. However, the various SRM proposals and their consequences
need to be examined, as long as such research does not replace or reduce
×
research on fundamental understanding of climate change or other
approaches of Climate
to limiting Changeor adapting to its impacts. Some key
climate change
SRM-related research needs, discussed in Chapter 15, include the
following:
Improve understanding of the physical potential and and
posestechnical
human activities,
feasibility of SRM and other geoengineering approaches. broad range of
many cases is already a
signi cant risks for--and in
ecting--a
Evaluate the potential consequences theseof SRM approaches
conclusions on other
is provided in Advancing the Science
aspects of theBuyEarth system, including ecosystems on land and inrequested the
 Ebook | $39.99of Climate Change, part of a congressionally
oceans. While noting that there is always more to learn and
Develop and evaluate systems of governance
that the scienti cthat would
process is neverprovide
closed, thea book
MyNAP members save
model for10%how to decide whether,shows
online. when, that hypotheses about climate change are
and how to intentionally
intervene in the
Login climatetosystem. stood rm in the face of serious debate and careful
or Register
Measuresave! evaluation
and evaluate public attitudes andofdevelop
approaches that
effectively inform and engage the As public
decisioninmakers
decisions
respondregarding
to these risks,SRM.
the
and consequences of climate 18 change and also is
NATIONAL AND HUMAN SECURITY useful to decision makers at the local, regional,
Climate change will in uence human and natural
decisions beingsystems
made in 12 that are
sectors, linked
ranging from
throughout the globe, creating important implications for bilateral and
multilateral relations and for national, international, and human security.
Changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation patterns, and other
elements of the physical climate system can add
national, substantial
multidisciplinary stresses
research to at
e ort aimed
infrastructure and especially to the food, water, energy, and ecosystem
resources that societies use. Key concerns regarding
are identi thethis
ed to support interactions
addition, leaders
between climate change and security include directofimpacts
federal climate
on research
military should
operations; potential impacts to regional strategic
observing system,priorities; causal
improve climate models links
and other
analytical tools, invest in
between environmental scarcity and con ict; the role of environmentalhuman capital, and improve
conservation and collaboration in promoting peace;
partnerships and relationships
between environmental quality, resource abundance, and
the report.
human security. In general, these areas are much less well understood than
the causes and more direct consequences of climate change.
×
Military Operations
Climate change may affect military assets and operations directly: through
physical stresses on military systems and personnel, severe weather
constraints on operations due to increased frequency and intensity of
storms and oods, increased uncertainty about the effects of Arctic ice and

ice oes on navigation safety both on and
manybelow
cases is the ocean
already surface,
a ecting--a broad or risks
range of
to coastal infrastructure due to sea level rise. Climate change is expected
to increase heavy rainfalls and oods, droughts, andpartresof ain many parts of

Buy Ebook | $39.99
the world and could lead to changing storm
of Climate Change,
suite of patterns.
studies knownThis
congressionally
as America's
requested
Climate Choices.
may generate a
change in military missions because the U.S.
that military
the scienti has substantial
c process is never closed, the book
MyNAP members save
shows that hypotheses
logistical, engineering, and medical capabilities that have about climate
been usedchange
to are
respond to emergencies in the
Login or Register to United States
stood rmand abroad.
in the Finally,
face of serious the
debate andU.S.
careful
military is a major
save! consumer of fossil fuels andofcould
evaluation potentially
alternative explanations.play a
major role in reducing U.S. GHG emissions.As decision makers respond to these risks, the
Download Free PDF
International Relations and National Security
Climate change has the potential to disrupt international
national, and international relations andidenti es
levels. The book
raise security challenges through impacts on speci
decisions c assets
being made and ranging
in 12 sectors, resources.
from
For example, loss of Arctic sea ice will increase the value of Arctic
navigation routes. The legal status of the Northwest Passage in particular
has long been contested, but the prospect of it becoming more widely
usable raises the stakes substantially. Another possible disruption
national, multidisciplinary research e orttoaimed at
international relations is the prospect of substantial mineral reserves
under the Arctic Ocean. Climate change arewill
identialso
ed toaffect
supportshorelines and in In
this scienti c enterprise.
some cases “exclusive economic zones”addition, leaders of federal
and baselines usedclimate research should
for projecting
national boundaries seaward. Boundaries that system,
observing couldimprove
be affected include
those in the South China Sea and between the United States and Cuba.improve
Climate-related changes in precipitation and thewith
partnerships hydrologic cycle
action-oriented will
programs.
likely result in changes in ow regimes in international river systems, and
this raises the possibility of challenges to interstate relationships, even
con ict, over shared water resources. Finally, climate-related changes in
food supply and sea level rise-related land losses could potentially result in
intra- and interstate migration and refugee-related con icts.
×
Treaty Veri cation
The prospect of binding international agreements on GHG emissions will
have important implications for treaty veri cation and compliance. In
particular, measurements of GHG concentrations and emissions are
needed to inform national and international policy aimed at regulating

emissions, to verify compliance with emissions-reduction policies,
many cases is already a ecting--a broadand
rangetoof
ascertain their effectiveness. Measurements of GHGs for treaty veri cation
or for nancial transactions (carbon trading)
of Climatewill require
part of a higher levelrequested
of

Buy Ebook | $39.99
scrutiny than that used in the researchsuite
domain.
Change,
of studies
Keyknown
a congressionally
as America's
concerns in Climate
such aChoices.
regime are data security, authentication,
thatreliability, and transparency.
the scienti c process is never closed, the book
MyNAP members save
Login or RegisterHuman
to Security
The impact of climate change may increase the probability of con ict, and
this has become a prominent argumentAsfor decision makers respond
considering to these
climate risks, thein
change
security analyses. The concept of human security,
research however,
that improves goes far
beyond the traditional concerns of national security and con ict andalso is
and consequences of climate change and
instead includes considerations of access to suf
national, cient food,
and international water,
levels. The book and identi es
health care infrastructure, as well as freedom from repression and freedom
and capacity to determine one’s life path. Analysts have moved toward a
more integrative conception of security and threats, one that re ects the
lived realities that individuals and communities face. Nevertheless, there
are still multiple ways of thinking aboutnational,
human security and
multidisciplinary no agreement
on a policy agenda. Research efforts in improving

this area both understanding and responses to
to date have focused on
issues of equity, fairness, vulnerability, are
and human
identi dignity,
ed to support thisand have
identi ed conditions that are critical toaddition, leaders of or
maintaining federal climate research
restoring human should
security: effective governance systems,observing
healthy and improve
system, resilient ecosystems,
comprehensive and sustained disaster risk-management efforts, and improve
analytical tools, invest in human capital,
empowerment of individuals and local institutions,
partnerships with and supportive
action-oriented values.
programs.
Research Needs for Advancing Science on National

and Human Security Implications of Climate Change
Scienti c understanding of the national and human security implications
of climate change are considerably less well understood than many of the
other impacts of climate change. As a result, there are a wide variety of
research needs for improving understanding of the relationship between
climate change and security, including the following:

Develop improved observations, models, and vulnerability
assessments for regions of importance in terms of military
×
infrastructure.

Build understanding of observations
many and monitoring
cases requirements
is already a ecting--a broad range for
of
treaty veri cation. human and natural systems. The compelling case for
Identify areas of potential human of
insecurity and vulnerability in

Buy Ebook | $39.99 Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested
response to climate change impactssuiteinteracting
of studies known as America's
with Climate Choices.
other social and
environmental changes. that the scienti c process is never closed, the book
MyNAP members save
DESIGNING, IMPLEMENTING, stood rmAND EVALUATING
in the face of serious debate and careful
CLIMATE POLICIES19
Analyzing differentDownload
policy options that research
might thatbe used tounderstanding
improves limit the of the causes
magnitude of climate change or promote and successful
consequences adaptation
of climate changeis and
a key
also is
area of scienti c research. Indeed, the national,
ability and
to comprehensively assess
international levels. The book identi es
the potential consequences of various climate policies—including
decisions being the costs,
made in 12 sectors, ranging from
bene ts, trade-offs, co-bene ts, and uncertainties associated with their
implementation—is paramount to informing public- and private-sector
decision making on climate change. Despite a broad range of research
focusing on policy making and evaluation in general,
national, policy-oriented
multidisciplinary research e ort aimed at
research focused speci cally on climate change and its interaction with
natural and social systems has been relatively
are identi limited.
ed to supportBecause climate
addition, leaders
change is becoming an increasingly important public of federal
policy climate research
concern inshould
the
United States and many other countries, additional
observing system, research to models
improve climate support and other
climate policy design and implementation is needed.
International Policies for Limiting the Magnitude
and Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
At the international level, examples of climate policies include the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol,
and the Copenhagen Accord. Policy options available at the national,
regional, and local levels include direct regulation, taxes, cap-and-trade
systems for emissions permits, incentive structures and subsidies for
voluntary action, technical aid and incentives for the creation and
×
implementation of new technology portfolios, and adaptation options and
Advancing theResearch
planning. Sciencein
ofthis
Climate
area Change
nds that direct regulation, when enforced,
can effectively reduce emissions. It also nds that while taxes are cost-
effective, they do not guarantee speci c emissions-reduction levels and
may be hard to adjust, and that the ef Climate
cacy of tradable
change permits
is occurring, depends
is caused largely byon
the structure of theBuy 
Paperback
policy. | $49.95
Voluntary human activities,can
agreements and poses
play signi
a rolecant
inrisks for--and in
accelerating technology adoption, but they
humanare less effective
and natural systems. The incompelling
reducing case for
19 For additional discussion and references, see Chapter
part of 17 in Part II ofrequested
the report.

Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, a congressionally
MyNAP members save
emissions. Finally, whereas
Login or Registerincentives
to and
stoodsubsidies toofdevelop
rm in the face cleaner
technologies save!
maybe be slow and costly,evaluation
they can of alternative
complement explanations.
other
emissions-reduction policies. As decision makers respond to these risks, the
Monitoring Compliance with Emissions-Reduction
Policies national, and international levels. The book identi es
International agreements and policies, agriculture
to be effective, need to be enforced,
veri ed, and monitored. Standards andbeing
certi
made cation mechanisms
in response for
to climate change.
reducing GHG emissions also need to be created and implemented.

Constraints to monitoring compliance single
withfederal
and the entityeffectiveness of such
policies include lack of adequate and reliable methods for measuring GHG
emissions, lack of mechanisms for accurately accounting
climate change. for GHG
Seven cross-cutting research themes
emissions and for offsets, and lack of technical capacity to monitor and
enforce policies nationally and across international
redouble e orts toborders.
deploy a comprehensive climate
Assessing Bene ts and Costs of Climate Action linkages between research and decisions by forming
Bene t-cost analyses seek to translate climate change impacts, including
lost or gained ecosystem services, into a monetary metric so that they can
be compared to estimates of the costs and bene ts associated with policies
to limit the magnitude or adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Alternatively, cost-effectiveness analysis is often used when the costs and
bene ts of action differ greatly in character, or when the bene ts are
subject to greater uncertainty or controversy. Cost-effectiveness analysis
allows analytically based comparisons of decisions without requiring that
×
all impacts—in this case, damages from climate change and costs of
Advancing thereduction—be
emissions Science of Climate Change
reduced to a single metric. Both approaches can
be powerful tools for informing decisions, but disagreements about (1) how
to value ecosystem services or other resources for which market prices do
not exist; (2) how to handle low-probability-high-consequence events,
discount rates, andBuy 
risk Paperback
aversion; (3)|prospects
$49.95
for technological
innovation; and (4) how to incorporate human
distributional and intergenerational
and natural systems. The compelling case for
equity concerns lead to wide ranges intheseestimates of isthe
conclusions social
provided value ofthe Science
in Advancing

climate actions. Buy Ebook | $39.99
Dealing with Complex and Interacting Policies,
MyNAP members save
10% online.
Multilevel Governance, and Equity
Effective save!policy making requires
climate evaluation
analyses of alternative explanations.
that consider the
complexity of real policies, how institutions interact
As decision makers across
respond tolevels of the
these risks,
Download
government from global Free PDF
to local, nation's issues.
and equity scienti c enterprise
Climatecan contribute
policies through
are not
made in a vacuum. They interact with other climate and
and consequences nonclimate
of climate change and also is
useful to decision
policies and are often nested across different scalesmakers
fromatlocal
the local, regional, In
to global.
the United States, rapidly emerging local and state
decisions climate
being made policyranging
in 12 sectors, agen- from
das interact with federal policy. It is notAdvancing

yet clear howofthese
the Science Climateinteractions
Change calls for a
single federal entity
will play out and what the net effect will be. The multilevel and or program to hybrid
coordinate a
character of climate policy (both for limiting
improving and
bothadapting
understanding to and
climate
responses to
climate change. Seven
change) presents opportunities (such as for synergistic outcomes) cross-cutting research
and themes
challenges (such as one level of decision making
addition, constraining
leaders orresearch
of federal climate negatingshould
the other). One of the most critical challenges is dealing fairly with the
distributional effects of climate changeanalytical
impacts. Three main sources of
equity concerns shape climate policy debates: historical
linkages between researchresponsibility for
and decisions by forming
the problem of climate change, who will bear the brunt of its negative
impacts, and who will be responsible for solving it. Scienti c research
cannot answer these questions, but it can provide relevant information to
policy makers as they attempt to do so.
Research Needs Related to Climate Policy

Development and Implementation
Research needs in this area, explored in further detail in Chapter 17,

include the following:
Continue to improve understanding of what leads to the adoption and

implementation of international agreements on climate and other
environmental issues and what mechanisms are most effective at
achieving their goals.
Develop and evaluate protocols, institutions, and technologies for
monitoring and verifying compliance with international agreements.
Continue to improve methods for estimating costs, bene ts, and cost-
effectiveness.
Develop methods for analyzing complex, hybrid policies.
Develop further understanding of how institutions interact in the
context of multilevel governance and adaptive risk management.
Develop analyses that examine climate policy from a sustainability
perspective, taking account of the full range of effects of climate
policy on human well-being, including unintended consequences and
equity effects.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

500 Fifth St., NW | Washington, DC 20001
© 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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10/6/2019 2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems | Advancing the

cing the Science of Climate Change | …

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010)

What We Know About Climate Change

climate change is periodically assessedpartnerships with action-oriented programs.

Our assessment of the current state of knowledge about global climate

This conclusion is based on a substantial array of scienti c evidence,

Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a-d), recent assessments by the

that the planet’s average surface temperature was 1.4°F (0.8°C)

Agriculture, sheries, and food production;

Earth’s physical climate system, which As

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

 Buy Paperback | $49.95

 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

As decision makers respond to these risks, the

surface temperature to rise. Human activities have also increased the

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

Other measurements of global temperature changes come from satellites,

Rivers and lakes are freezing later and thawing earlier;

have been warmer Buy 

Natural climate variations can also be in uenced by volcanic eruptions,

during that period Buy 

As decision makers respond to these risks, the

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a

Only 45 percent of the CO2 emitted by human activities remains in the

 Activities Are Associated with a Net

Human activities have also increased the number of aerosols, or particles,

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by

 Buy Paperback | $49.95

 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

As decision makers respond to these risks, the

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a

Feedback Processes Determine How the Climate

solar radiationsave! evaluation of alternative explanations.

The collective effect of all feedback processes determines

As decision makers respond to these risks, the

5. As described above, the climate system varies naturally on a wide

 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

aerosols and land use) will change overAdvancing

not able to resolve Buy 

Projections of Future Climate Change Indicate

between different scenarios of future climate

Related Changes Are Projected

7 As discussed in Chapter 6, none of the scenarios considered in this

 Buy Ebook | $39.99 of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested

As decision makers respond to these risks, the

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a

Glaciers and ice sheets will continue to melt; and

Abrupt Changes May Occur

be crossed as the climate 

systems that save!

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by

 LEVEL RISE AND THE COASTAL

The coastlines of the 

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a

FIGURE 2.6 Annual, global mean sea level as determined by

because of different rates of settling orAsuplift

estimates are rather uncertain, due mainly to limits

GHGs that have already been emitted, that thetherate

Ice Sheet Processes Could Potentially Lead to

discharges in the Arctic 