Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BIG MIKES Redknapp Manual 2008 PDF
BIG MIKES Redknapp Manual 2008 PDF
REDNAPP BET
THE ULTIMATE EXPERIENCE IN
FOOTBALL TRADING
By Mike Marsland
CONTENTS
Foreword
5.Example Number 2
6. Summary of further trades
7. Extra plays
i) Foreword
The betting exchanges, betfair, and, to a lesser extent, betdaq, have taken
gambling to a new level. We are now able to actually TRADE on these
websites as city traders do, but not on markets such as oil and gold. We
can trade horse racing, cricket and football for example. And with betfair
introducing ‘in-running’ markets on many sports, we can trade in and out
of these markets depending on how an event progresses, while watching
them live.
As Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once said, ‘we have never had it so
good’ Absolutely true.
In the past year, the ‘Football cash generator’ system has taken the
football trading market by storm. With a combination of clever marketing
and an affiliate scheme, the initial reaction of buyers is that they have
found their ‘Holy Grail’ to betting, yet it still has its detractors. The two
main criticisms I have of the system are:
I have actively traded live football matches on betfair for a few years
now, and advised many of my clients in the way I approach a game. The
time is now right, with liquidity on betfair at an all time high, to reveal
my secrets, in the ULTIMATE football trading system!
1.Glossary of commonly used terms
Back – place a bet on an event to happen. i.e. if you think a team will
win, back them to win.
Lay – place a bet on an event not to happen. i.e. if you think a team
will lose, lay them.
Trade – process of backing and laying with the aim of getting into a
win/win situation
Peg – The reverse of the `mine`. In effect bets which are placed at a
higher level than existing at present in a market.
I have played the correct score markets for many years and have tried to
specialise in tight games where both sides seemed very evenly matched –
both sides having decent defences, but also players who can turn a game
at any time. 2 things then happened
So, my correct score bets have evolved into the Redknapp trading bet on
live games. How many times have you missed placing a correct score bet
on a game? Not any more, with the exchanges, we can bet on these
markets in-running and trade them as well.
b) Harry Redkapp
The name of the bet came from the first game I advised my private clients
on which was Latvia versus Wales in 2004. (Note: long before the
‘Football Cash Generator’ was released to the public!) The game was
tight for an hour which was sufficient for us to pull out with an excellent
profit BUT, the twitchiness of the members also trading the match
cemented the title for the bet! Anyone who has seen Harry Redknapp in
the dug out or stands when watching the teams under his control will
understand exactly what he goes through during the course of the 90
minutes! Members were going through the same traumatic situations with
any attack by the teams in question!
After this match I decided to bring in some more alterations and gradually
over the next games and months, continued to make strategic changes to
the bet so that it has become what it is today. It is now less volatile as
when commenced, profits are now more consistent instead of swings
from one extreme to the other.
Last season there were 60 games traded, with 41 games producing profits,
6 breaking even and 13 losing trades. Total profit is well in excess of
£1000, with £100 staked on each match, BUT, the NET LIABILITY on
any match was only £30 due to the clever way we staked across different
markets which encompassed the `First Goals Market` - which is the time
of the first goal in any game.
Some members played the trades with many more times the stake
advised, thus making a much bigger profit, and often once members had
understood the trade they would play in many more matches a week than
the ones I advised. Remember always though that the key element is to
find relatively even matches. SO important.
Some of you may be wondering how I could advise a trading bet if it was
played in running. Through the use of the MSN/Windows Messenger
systems available free to download from the internet, I was able to advise
an opening trading position via email then, after Kick off, advise clients
which trades to make during the game. With practice however, many
members were able to trade other matches in exactly the same way as I
did so making consistently large profits all season. The best 2 Messenger
systems found were the MSN & also Windows Messenger should you
require to download.
Take the Chelsea/Arsenal game last season, a game where either side
could win, either side could score goals, and, most importantly, BOTH
sides could defend. In addition – and a point not to be missed – 2 top
goalkeepers. Add the ingredients of a local derby, high intensity, huge
media interest, pride and passion etc. so it is an ideal `Redknapp` target.
The gross outlay for the whole bet is £100, and the biggest initial bet is on
the ‘next goals’ market for ‘no goals’, or the ‘0-0’ on the correct score
market. If you can play the `First Goalscorer` Market instead of the
Correct Score Market you will gain an advantage of course should the
only goal of the game be an `own` goal as bets will be settled as a 0-0
scoreline. However you will need a lot of capital here as simply you will
be betting on a different market to the market you are laying – so take
care in such circumstances.
(hint : always look to the major bookmakers on big games like this, they
often offer excellent ‘extras’ on correct score markets. For example, if a
game ends 1-0 and a particular bookmaker (Paddy Power & VC bet often
the two to watch here) offers money back if such and such a player scores
then do take advantage.
However for the purpose of this illustration we have placed a £40 bet on
the game to be 0-0 via the Betfair Correct Score Market.
The 2 markets, ‘next goal, bet no goal’ and ‘correct score, 0-0’ are
essentially the same bet, and betting correct score 0-0 is certainly easier
to follow when you see the next step, however, when you get more adept,
the ‘next goal market’ moves faster and, more importantly, there is a
bigger volume of money traded on it. So it’s a market to watch.
We then cover a few more correct scores. This being a tight match (we
hope!) we bet £6 on the scores 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1. Depending on the game
we expect, we may go for a 2-0 scoreline, but, remember, this is a live
trading bet, and by not betting the scores, 2-1 or 1-2 for example, we can
still bet on these scores ‘live’ depending on how the game develops.
So, we have £40 on the 0-0 scoreline, and £6 each on 3 other score lines,
making a total of £58.so where is the other £42???
INSURANCE!
It is not a well-known fact, but surprisingly, a high percentage of
Premiership goals are scored in the first 10 minutes of a match.
Accordingly, I have developed the bet to make sure we benefit from these
early strikes. The remaining £42 is spread among the time of the first goal
market on betfair or left as a small extra balance to play in running. It’s
a fluid bet so you must have some liquidity.
IMPORTANT:
The market used for Insurance is the `First Goals Market` & remember it
does not go ‘live’ and in-running when the match commences so any bets
have to be placed before Kick off.
0-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-51 and
81-90 to catch any last minute goals.
You can of course go `full cover` by betting all the segments – certainly
sensible when trading as a `newbie`.
The odds on this market are quite high, so usually I will perhaps spread
£32 over the 6 different times, leaving me £10 in hand to bet and trade as
is needed on the live markets later on.
The emphasis will always be on the early goal. 0-10 and 11-20 minutes
are therefore heavily bet as the whole bet revolves around the early goal.
There is an awful lot of solace if the first goal is scored in those first 20
minutes when the Insurance is in place.
Another point re goal minutes. 41-50 minutes and 81-90 minutes are also
very useful for trading. Remember unlike Rugby League the clock
doesn’t stop when there is an injury on the field of play. Therefore the
time added on is a bonus when evaluating the whole of the bet. Often if 5
minutes is added on we are getting – in effect – a 50% bonus for trading.
0-0 @ 12.0
1-0 @8
0-1 @8
1-1 @8
0-0 line
On each of 1-0, 0-1 & 1-1 the starter position was - £10 (£42 less £52
staked elsewhere. After all the Lays for £6 @ 6.0 the position on each of
these lines would be +£12 as we will have laid £52 back on the 0-0
scoreline and the other two scores).
0-0would be +£182
1-0would be +£12
0-1would be + £12
1-1would be +£12
others scores would be £0
YET
The match has a long way to go AND we have the Insurance to pay for
and also 3 segments where we have NO insurance.
I would continue to lay the 0-0 line – certainly until the Half Time whistle
blows when I would then look at the overall position. Hopefully we
would be in a decent position with heavy green on all scores giving me
the opportunity to load up on other scores to ensure we come away with a
decent profit. Remember also that as the match progresses the 0-0
scoreline price falls so giving you greater chances to lay with the object
of `averaging` on all scores at about the £70 mark. When you take the
`insurance into account we are therefore looking for a return of about £40
NO MATTER the scoreline.
We have good cover until the 50th minute then we are in uncovered
territory. As I said at the start – until you are fully into the bet I would
suggest covering for say a token £2 on each of the 3 uninsured segments.
This all may sound very complicated, it isn’t! By the time you have
participated in 5 ‘live’ sessions on the MSN/Windows Messenger, you
will have all the skill required to make this one of your most profitable
weapons in making betting pay!
To further illustrate this great bet, I will now take you through, step-by-
step, an example from this season.
It was the first live English game shown. I make no apologies for
repeating the steps taken – you have the theory above, this is what
actually happened, What I advised to my clients, and how we came out of
the game a lot wealthier than when we started!!!
Sit back, pour a nice glass of wine, try to get the gist of the bet, then,
when there is the next live game on television, have a crack at the
Redknapp.
4.The Redknapp Bet – The Real-time Example!
To illustrate the I have provided a worked Redknapp bet in the match
between Southampton v Wolves on the opening day of the 2006/7 season.
I chose the match because I felt it would be tight and because of the
intense feeling in the game especially with regard to former Southampton
Manager Glenn Hoddle.
The gross outlay for the whole Redknapp bet is based on a bet of £100.
The initial bet was for £40 on the 0-0 Correct Score. The similar market
on betfair is the Next Goal Market so I will illustrate using that market.
On this page of the `Next Goal` Market you will see 3 possibilities. In
this case we have Southampton at the top (home team), Wolves in the
middle (away team) and No Goal at the bottom (Big Mikes Team!) . As
we are betting that there will be no goals in the match I have placed a bet
of £40 on the No Goals line and taken the available 12.0 though there are
times when the price drifts before the start so a late decision is often
advised.
£2 on 0-1 @ 12.0
£5 on 1-0 @ 9.0
£6 on 1-1 @ 7.2
£2 on 2-1 @ 10.5
N.B.As mentioned, beware as this market does not turn in running and all
bets have to be `on` before the match starts.
Big Mikes Hint :- Put up the prices rather than take whats offered `willy
nilly` .
The Insurance in this match has totalled £35 so we now have £90 of the
initial £100 invested.
4) I always try & retain a small Cash Reserve for moves during the game
just in case we need to `fix` problem areas or indeed sometimes increase
profitable positions.
In this game our Cash in hand Reserve to use during the game is £10.
This particular match, with it being the first of the season, was played live
via the `Messenger` system and 7 members were present playing on the
same lines as myself.
The game was pretty uninspired with a lot of side to side football but the
biggest problem was a paucity of liquidity on the exchange sites. Maybe
because so many events were being played – such as evening horse
racing, cricket and other sports but even so the lack of liquidity remained
a problem throughout the match & I suppose we were fortunate that the
game was dire.
£4 at 11.0 (remember, first lay 1 point less than we backed 0-0 at)
£4 at 10.0
£4 at 8.6
£5 at 7.6
£5 at 6.6
£8 at 5.5
£7 at 4.2
£8 at 3.85
All these bets were matched by the end of the first half with the exception
of the last bet.
At the same time I have access to the true price of the 0-0 score at any
time. This true price is calculated using arithmetical formula and takes
away the emotional element of the calculation which is very important.
Sometimes – as in this particular match – the true price bore no
resemblance to the market price and therefore I was able to manoeuvre
into a better trading position for members.
So at half time we had very little insurance left but our position on the
next goals market wasn’t looking too bad. It was as follows: -
Southampton -£3
Wolves -£3
No Goals + £221
I made no alterations to the correct score bets other than 0-0 during the
first half. The cash reserve was still in place too.
The true price at half time of the 0-0 scoreline was 3.85 yet the trading
price on the exchanges was 4.1 so in effect it was nearly 10% too high. I
was still concerned that with only a few minutes left of the 41-50 minutes
`Insurance` we may not get into the `all green` position on the trading
line. Indeed after 50 minutes the £8 at 3.85 was still not matched so I
had a couple of minutes of nervous anxiety (you wonder why its called
the Redknapp bet?) before the `all green` position was achieved.
The green light galvanised me into a very positive outlook on the bet as I
then instructed the members to lay at 3.2 for £10 and simultaneously also
make further bets on the correct scores to – in effect – produce a
secondary insurance element in the match period between the 51st Minute
and 80th Minute when we had no insurance cover.
£3 on 0-1 @ 6.0
£2 on 1-0 @ 5.8
£3 on 2-0 @ 14.0
This little bet is an excellent `reassurance` and gives us even more trading
possibilities should goals be scored.
After placing these trades the No Goals price in the Next Goals Market
had fallen substantially as other punters also had the opinion that there
were unlikely to be many goals in the match. The market was
responding to this gloom and prices were falling fast. Our members
continued to take advantage of this fall and lays were made for £10 at 2.6,
2.5 and other points down to 1.85 all by the all-important 80th minute.
Southampton +90
Wolves + 90
No Goals + 114
The net loss on the Correct Scores totalled £23 (£15 initially & £8 later)
& the Insurance Costs totalled £35 of which only £2 was still `live`. So
at this stage should we decide to cease play the net profit before exchange
commission was £56. This figure was worked out as follows: -
BUT
HOWEVER
You may remember we took extra Insurance out at the start to cover the
81-90 minute `First Goal`. Because we have this little Treasure Chest
still available we KNOW that the profit is secure and on top of that we
can also increase our profit a little bit too. On the 80th Minute I
instructed the members to LAY BOTH Southampton and Wolves on the
next goal market site for £5 each @ 4.5 & 4.8 prevailing respectively.
By doing so we increased our NET profit as in effect we were covered for
this little move by the extra Insurance of the First Goal being Scored
between 81 & 90 minutes. A little extra never did anybody any harm.
So the final Net Profit worked out as follows :-
Conclusion
Although this particular match ended goalless and therefore should have
provided a decent profit anyway the very fact I put in so many little extras
to nullify any big losses surely is attractive to punters. When betting you
must always consider the DOWNSIDE & members know that I cherish
net profits and abhor big losses so maybe it pays to be conservative for
once in a punting career.
I do have extra plays of course if goals are scored and these will only
profitably be understood should you join the Messenger Experience of the
Redknapp Bet. It’s a sound bet and one which WILL produce profits
over the season. Last season we did not win on every match – of course
things go wrong occasionally and freak results occur but in each game
our DOWNSIDE liability is limited.
5.Second Example
As stated previously, I wanted to choose matches which we believe will
be tightly contested. Manchester United travelled to take on Villareal,
who themselves are hard to beat in La Liga. I expected a tight game, but
still covered the position with the insurance. The opening positions were
as follows :
After Kick-off
Once the game was under way, we then began to place lays on the 0-0
correct score market, as follows :
£4 at 9.4
£4 at 8.8
£4 at 8.2
£4 at 7.6
£4 at 7
£3 at 6.4
£3 at 6
£4 at 5.6
£4 at 5.2
£5 at 4.8
At this stage the 0-0 price was falling fast, with Green appearing on other
scores that had been backed, so, to even up some of the positions that we
started with, the next move was to lay ;
35 minutes had gone and our positions were looking good, a tight game
with very few chances. We then laid some more on the 0-0 as follows :
£4 at 4.3
£4 at 4.0
By Half-time all members had every score on the correct score page
green – a green/green screen!!! During the half time period the 0-0
scoreline continued to fall, and as we had insurance up until the 50th
minute, the next lays were as follows :
Score +/-£
0-0 +75
1-0 +30
0-1 +40
1-1 +25
1-2 +37
others +12
With the game looking very poor and very few chances we were in a
good position. We did have the insurance in place but not for between the
50th minute until the 70th minute, so still a bit of tinkering to do in
between these minutes.
The game was heading our way, and as we closed in on the next
insurance slot of 71 minutes, Rooney managed to get sent off, making it
even better for us.
Once the 71 minute had been reached we were in a win/win situation all
round – Positions were now :
Score +/-£
0-0 +66
1-0 +30
0-1 +42
1-1 +21
1-2 +52
others +27
If the game had stayed at 0-0 then the profit would have been +66 on the
correct score, but a loss of –36 on the insurance. Profit £30
If there was a goal we had the profit from the insurance and the profit
from the correct score screen, whatever the result. Even a goal-fest would
mean profit.
At this point, with 15 minutes to go, many members logged off after
another fine redknapp. The game petered out to a 0-0, a good result for
us!
Profits ranged from £20 up to £45 depending on how members had
played the last few minutes. Some chose to leave it, others chose to
‘equalise’ profits across all scores.
As you become more adept with the Redknapp, you will chose either to
hit a profit point and sit back, or tinker away to try to gain extra profit. By
joining in on the MSN Messenger you will soon get to see exactly how a
live game works, not just trying to visualise it by reading this!
6.Summary of further trades
By now you will be getting a good feel of how the Redknapp operates,
and hopefully you will have had a dabble as well. The key to its success
is choosing the right match. Tight games with 2 evenly matched sides.
Sky is our biggest friend in helping us chose, they want games that fit this
description.
These are some more games, and the results, from the past few weeks :
Opening position :
£40 on No Goalscorer
£5 on 0-1
£5 on 1-0
£5 on 1-1
In hand £10
A big game, and perfect for us! Another 0-0 scoreline ensures a good
profit for all, this time over £50.
2.Doncaster v Man City
Scores to cover
£40 on 0-0 @ 14
£2 on 1-0 @ 24
£7 on 0-1 @ 8
£6 on 1-1 @ 9.4
£3 on 0-2 @ 9
In hand £7
An interesting game with City being the hot favourites, but not according
to us. The game plodded along and ended 0-0 at fulltime. Profits were
once again big, one new member clearing £75!
3.Manchester United vs Lille
Scores to cover :
With shot-shy Man u desperate for a win, some might have thought this
wasn’t the best game to get involved with. However, a 0-0 FT result
ensured once again we all finished well in profit.
7) EXTRA PLAYS
a)
The Redknapp features when it’s a low scoring game and also does
extremely well when an early goal is scored as the First Goals `Insurance`
provides the bonus.
In such games you really must remember the 2.7 goals statistic. Simply a
goal should be scored every 33 minutes. An early goal therefore gives
you extra time to play a quick `in and out` trade which in fairness to Mr
Redknapp we have termed the `Harry Kari` or the HK when we have a
Conference on the Messenger.
Let`s assume a goal in the first 10 minutes and it’s a game where
defences seem handy. This play is not for the fainthearted by the way.
Bet £20 on the 1-0 or 0-1 score whichever is appropriate (in other words
the current score). Lets assume the price appertaining is 10.0
Stay alert.
The next bet is £20 as soon as the 9.2 is matched. So for just a
few moments you will be `bull` of £26 on the correct score (the £20 HK
and the balance from the first HK).
Stay alert.
The next bet is £20 as soon as the 8.0 is matched. Again you
will be a major `bull` at this stage for £25 on the correct score (the £20
HK and the balance from the second HK).
Put in 5 lays of £5 this time at 7.2, 6.8, 6.4 6.0 & 5.6
By all means repeat the HK if and when you like BUT always have the
third leg as your repayment leg.
b)
Extra scores.
If the game is going our way and there are few threats on goal it is a
sensible ploy to use some of the profit coming from laying the 0-0 score
to use on other scores. Certainly 0-1 and 1-0 as those scores of course
will come first if there is to be a goal. I also like to bet – using the
excellent Gruss software – just a few pennies on the `daft` scores of 2-2,
2-3, etc as you can always use them to hedge if there is to be a goal glut.
Remember try and get into `green` on all scores as soon as possible.
c)
A nice little ploy in initially equally contested games. Its often a sound
way to recover losses and an excellent trading tool. Punters always over
react and you will find a team say initially 4.0 could fall to 1.7 ish should
an early goal be scored – sometimes fortuitously as well.
Conclusion
As has been said, compared to other, more expensive systems, which start
off with massive liabilities, this trade sees very low risk involved due to
the way the £100 is spread over various markets. Combining this with the
selective nature of games chosen, it is clear to see why so many of my
members now increase stakes many times over. Start off small and build
up, and by the time you have joined in with a few ‘live’ games and the
messenger chats you will see how to play each game.
Happy Trading,
Big Mike.