1/19/2012

Time to
buy or ...?
Content by: Nico Omer Jonckheere, SE, MM

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BLOW UP?

”In 2008, governments

could intervene to sort
out the problems of
banks. In 2011, banks
have problems, but so,
too, do governments.”
-former U.K. Prime
Minister Gordon Brown-

“Debt doesn’t go away. Even if you succeed in

managing it, you still have to take the debt and
subtract it from someone’s balance sheet. Excess
debt is like a hand-
hand-grenade after you’ve pulled the
pin. You can pass it around the table. But, it’s
going to explode anyway.”
- Bill Bonner

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Financial history shows that every credit BOOM is

followed by a credit BUST. The massive credit
mountain you see on the chart will be leveled by a
“financial implosion.” In other words, the credit must
DEFLATE.

Negara G-7 saja

perlu membiayai
ulang obligasi
permerintah senilai
$7.3 Trilliun
(dengan T besar)
ditambah biaya
bunga sebesar $566
Billion di tahun
2012.

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THE ECONOMY OF EUROPE IS A

DEAD DUCK
”In Europe, you’ve got
insolvent banks
supporting insolvent
sovereigns and
insolvent sovereigns
supporting insolvent
banks.”
-Robert Prince,
Bridgewater’s co-chief
investment officer-

APAKAH YUNANI AKAN BANGKRUT?

Greece will default …
eventually.
The bailout funds –
no matter how large
they grow – will
merely slow the
march toward
inevitability. The
destination is certain;
the timetable is
variable.

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PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI EROPA MANDEK

Apabila mesin pertumbuhan di Uni Eropa mogok,

bagaimana kemampuan dan/atau keinginan dari
ekonomi Eropa yang lebih kuat untuk tetap mendukung
anggota yang sedang berada diambang kebangkrutan?

KEKISRUHAN MENGHANTAM EROPA

Apabila Yunani default atas
hutangnya yang bernilai
sekitar $500 billion, apakah
itu akan terlaksana dengan
cara yang rapi atau malahan
meningkatkan tekanan
terhadap sistem perbankan
di Eropa? Dan … apakah
sebuah DOMINO EFFECT
dapat menjatuhkan negara
yang lainnya, seperti
Portugal, Irlandia, Spanyol,
Italia, Belgia dan bahkan
Prancis?

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Italy needs to refinance €300 billion worth of debt next

year, and a similar amount in 2013. Given the size of
the economy and the amount of debt involved Italy
cannot be bailed out, but it cannot be allowed to go
bust either.

90 bank Eropa, yang

baru saja mengikuti
stress test yang
diselenggarakan oleh
the European
Banking Authority,
perlu membiayai
ulang hutang senilai
5.4 trillion euros
selama 2 tahun
mendatang!

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Sebagai contohnya, terutama bank besar di Prancis

seperti Crédit Agricole dan Société Générale memiliki
banyak sekali “hutang beracun,” dan dengan $3.6
trillion aset diantara mereka merupakan yang terbesar
di dunia.

French banks are leveraged 4 times total French

GDP. Essentially, they are perilously close to being
too big for France to save.

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FEWER JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES

Only 55.3% of all Americans between the ages of 18

and 29 were employed last year. That was the
lowest level that we have seen since World War II.

Even though the headline figures suggest the employment

situation in the United States is improving, all is not better on
the jobs front. We’re experiencing the slowest recovery ever.
And a massive unemployment gap still remains.

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Outstanding household debt as a percentage of

disposable income is trending down after registering a
historical peak in the second quarter of 2007
(130.34%). This ratio stood at 114.6% in the second
quarter of 2011.

THE US ISN’T JUST BROKE.

IT’S BANKRUPT.
“Witnessing the
Republicans and
Democrats bicker
over the U.S. debt,
is like watching
two drunks argue
over a bar bill on
the Titanic.”
-Author Unknown-

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Between 2007 and 2010, U.S. GDP grew by only

4.26%, but the U.S. national debt soared by 61%
during that same time period.

Those ‘Deficit-as-a-share-of-GDP’ numbers for 2009,

2010 and 2011 pretty means that the U.S. is done
for as well. It’s just a matter of how fast it happens.

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Given the role the US dollar plays as the world’s

reserve currency, the dismal shape of the US monetary
system spells trouble for the global monetary system.

The US national debt is 5.5 times that of Italy – the

largest debt in the eurozone and the cause of so
much consternation in the markets.

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Of potential concern for the U.S. is the level of debt

maturing over the course of the next five years.

BUBBLE DI PASAR PROPERTI CINA

Jika perekonomian Cina melemah – menyusul

Cina adalah mesin pertumbuhan dari Asia –
seluruh kawasan akan merasakan pengaruhnya.

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One amazing measure is

that the price of private
land in Beijing has
increased nine times
over in the last decade
… We are already
seeing the first signs of
weakness in this
bubble. There are now
65 million vacant
housing units. That is
NOT a typo.

DISEASED LOANS

Fitch Ratings estimates as much as 30% of China’s

banking system loans – some $2.46 trillion all told
– could go all “nonperforming” on them.

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FDI SEES ITS FIRST YoY DROP IN

28 MONTHS

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW

China GDP has been
averaging 10.27%
per annum over the
past decade. Back
in 2007, China was
a total rocket ship,
growing at an
amazing 14.2%.
Now Jim Chanos
estimates Chinese
GDP growth would
take a 7.5%-10%
hit.

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GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

A sectarian Cold War in the region and rising

Sunni-Shi’ite tensions would be “suicide” for the
whole region.

BE PATIENT, QE3 IS COMING …

Apabila terjadi sebuah CRASH di bursa saham dunia

dalam setahun kedepan, the Fed – bersamaan dengan
ECB, BoE, BoJ dan SNB – mungkin secara tergesa-
gesa akan kembali menerapkan program quantitative
easing.

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There now can be

little doubt that
overly indebted
nations in Europe
and the U.S. will
look to inflate
currencies rather
than cut spending
or raise taxes to
solve their fiscal
woes.

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TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

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“If the market action in 2008 taught us anything,

it was: Be proactive and expect the worst.”
- Sam Stovall

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SEKTOR & SAHAM PILIHAN

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KIAT--KIAT INVESTASI
KIAT
► Yang penting sekarang adalah: jangan bersikap terlalu
agresif, kurangi sedikit kepemilikan aset beresiko, dan
siapkan SIASAT Anda untuk kuartal keempat tahun ini.

► Pusatkan perhatian pada large caps atau perusahaan

pilihan dengan:
● pertumbuhan penjualan dan/atau laba bersih;
bersih;
● dividend yield yang tinggi maupun P/E yang relatif
rendah;
● cash flow yang sehat maupun OPM yang besar;
● DER yang rendah dan ROE yang tinggi.

Juga perusahaan dengan corporate actions yang dapat

meningkatkan nilai pemegang saham perlu dipertimbangkan.

Fair Value: Rp25.450

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Fair Value: Rp8.400

Fair Value: Rp20.150

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Fair Value: Rp590

Fair Value: Rp3.100

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Fair Value: Rp3.750

Fair Value: Rp740

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Fair Value: Rp1.390

Fair Value: Rp365

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Fair Value: Rp300

REKOMENDASI INVESTASI

Belilah perusahaan yang memiliki good earnings
visibility, memberikan dividen secara reguler maupun
diperdagangkan pada P/E ratio yang rendah,
rendah, dan Anda
dipastikan akan menuju ke masa depan yang sejahtera!

Untuk sementara waktu, belilah EMAS (sebagai asuransi)
dan pertahankanlah CASH (sebagai amunisi untuk membeli
saham ketika bursa saham terperosok).

Investor secara pelan tetapi pasti akan memindahkan
dananya dari PAPER ASSETS – khususnya uang kertas –
kepada REAL ASSETS seperti komoditas, yang memiliki
nilai intrinsik yang jelas.

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TRADING TIPS

Membuat RENCANA sebelum bertransaksi
1. Entry point
2. Exit point
3. Stop loss

Ikuti perkembangan pasar melalui laporan riset
kami dan http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id

Follow us @researchvas on Twitter

SEMOGA SUKSES SELALU DAN MAKIN SEJAHTERA!

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