MED 182-B Biostatistics and Epidemiology/MLSBIEPL

Group 2: 2nd Year

Gabriel, Melarie Ann Cevie Cruz
Gonzales, Justine Ryan Mercado
Ines, Jeffrey Thomas Macugay
Juan, Ysabelle Manuel
Malicsi, Marcuz Heri Angeles

Part I.
Consider these 5 situations:
A. Barangay Talino, a community where many universities are found and where most residents
are young adults and students.
1. Emigration and has Low Median Age
2. Local Government must offer dormitories that are affordable to lessen the expenses of
the students.
B. Barangay Lipad, a community where most husbands have left the country to work as an overseas
Filipino worker (OFW) and the only ones left are the wives and their children.
1. Low Sex Ratio; there are more Females than Males.
2. Increase the income and enhance the accessibility for work in the Philippines.
C. Barangay Tanda, a community where most retirees have decided to live.
1. Greater number of Older Age group in the Population.
2. Lessen the Cost of Living and Expenses of Older Age Group
D. Barangay Pilak, a community where most residents are workers of the mining company. Because it is
a difficult place to live, most workers do not have their families with them.
1. Potentially increase measure of disease burden.
2. Offer tenmporary houses and accessible health services
E. Barangay Angat, a community that is mostly populated by call center agent.
1. Unhealthy Lifestyle of the Community
2. Seminar or Conferences about Healthy Lifestyle

Part II.
Roughly draw a population pyramid indicative of the following conditions or characteristics of the population:
1. A population with a great need for a string family planning program

- There are more than 100+ people that are dependents need to be supported by every 100
people in the population.
 2. A population which has a sex ratio below 100 in the working age groups

- There are lesser number of Males for every 100 Females in the working age group of the
Population.

For each situation, explain in not more than two sentences how or in what way your pyramid depicts
the situation cited.

Part III.

Table 1. Population, Crude Birth Rate, and Crude Death Rate of the Province of Cebu in 1985 and 1990.
1985 1990
Population size 1,365,533 1,552,258
Crude birth rate (per 1000) 24.9 28.1
Crude death rate (per 1000) 6.6 5.6

A. Calculate for the following:

1. Relative increase in the population of Cebu between 1985 and 1990.
𝟏,𝟓𝟓𝟐,𝟐𝟓𝟖−𝟏,𝟑𝟔𝟓,𝟓𝟑𝟑
-RI= 𝟏𝟑𝟔𝟓𝟓𝟑𝟑
x100=13.67

2. Absolute increase per year during the same period.

𝟏,𝟓𝟓𝟐,𝟐𝟓𝟖−𝟏,𝟑𝟔𝟓,𝟓𝟑𝟑
-b= 𝟓
=37,345

3. Natural increase in the province of Cebu for 1985 and 1990.

- 1985: 34,001.7717 – 9,012.5178 = 24,989
- 1990: 43,618.4498 – 8,692.6448 = 34,926

4. Rate of Natural Increase for 1985 and 1990

- 1985: 24.9 – 6.6 = 18.3
- 1990: 28.1 – 5.6 = 22.5
 B. Using the exponential method, what would be the annual rate of growth in the population during
the period?
𝟏,𝟓𝟓𝟐,𝟐𝟓𝟖
𝐥𝐧⁡
𝟏,𝟑𝟔𝟓,𝟓𝟑𝟑
- r= 𝟓
= 0.026 or 2.6%
C. Using the geometric method and assuming an annual rate of growth of 2.4%, what would be
the population of Cebu in 1995?
- Pt= 1,552,258(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟒)𝟓 = 1,747,687
D. If the population of Cebu is growing at an annual rate of 2.48%, how many years will it take for
this population to double?
𝐥𝐧⁡(𝟐)
- t*= 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟒𝟖 = 27.95 or 28 years

Part IV.

Table 2. Population Distribution by Age and Sex, Philippines, 2019

MALE FEMALE TOTAL
Age Group
number % number % number %
0-4 5,450,633 4.97% 5,165,709 4.71% 10,616,342 9.69%
5-9 5,846,072 5.33% 5,551,880 5.07% 11,397,952 10.40%
10-14 5,578,251 5.09% 5,328,550 4.86% 10,906,801 9.95%
15-19 5,407,659 4.93% 5,055,235 4.61% 10,462,894 9.55%
20-24 5,191,755 4.74% 4,912,579 4.48% 10,104,334 9.22%
25-29 4,807,611 4.39% 4,672,169 4.26% 9,479,780 8.65%
30-34 4,166,778 3.80% 4,080,419 3.72% 8,247,197 7.53%
35-39 3,644,549 3.33% 3,610,181 3.29% 7,254,730 6.62%
40-44 3,297,341 3.01% 3,254,622 2.97% 6,551,963 5.98%
45-49 2,883,722 2.63% 2,875,542 2.62% 5,759,264 5.26%
50-54 2,538,943 2.32% 2,578,054 2.35% 5,116,997 4.67%
55-59 2,075,862 1.89% 2,174,061 1.98% 4,249,923 3.88%
60-64 1,614,771 1.47% 1,778,415 1.62% 3,393,186 3.10%
65-69 1,137,017 1.04% 1,348,668 1.23% 2,485,685 2.27%
70-74 709,616 0.65% 951,813 0.87% 1,661,429 1.52%
75-79 381,080 0.35% 597,110 0.54% 978,190 0.89%
80-84 202,363 0.18% 378,173 0.35% 580,536 0.53%
85-89 75,335 0.07% 165,698 0.15% 241,033 0.22%
90-94 16,873 0.02% 59,191 0.05% 76,064 0.07%
95-99 2,375 0.00% 12,613 0.01% 14,988 0.01%
100+ 219 0.00% 1,578 0.00% 1,797 0.00%

TOTAL 55,028,825 50.22% 54,552,260 49.78% 109,581,085 100.00%

A. Construct a population pyramid for the above table.

B. Based on the population pyramid, cite two conclusions that can be made about the
Philippine population.
- Age Dependency Ratio: Greater number of young age than the older age group.
- Sex Ratio: There are more than 100 Males for every 100 Females.
C. Determine the sex and age-dependency ratios.
Sex Ratio:
𝟓𝟓,𝟎𝟐𝟖,𝟖𝟐𝟓
- X 100 = 101
𝟓𝟒,𝟓𝟓𝟐,𝟐𝟔𝟎
Age Dependency Ratio:
𝟑𝟐𝟗𝟐𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟓−𝟔𝟎𝟑𝟗𝟕𝟐𝟐
- 𝟕𝟎𝟔𝟏𝟕𝟐𝟔𝟖
X100 = 38.07
D. In 2017, the Philippine population was 104,921,600. Using the exponential method, determine
how fast the population grew between 2017 and 2019.
𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟖𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟓
𝒍𝒏
- r= 𝟏𝟎𝟒𝟗𝟐𝟏𝟔𝟎𝟎
𝟐
= 0.022 or 2.2%
E. In relation to D, what difference will it make in your results if the arithmetic method was used
instead?
- There is no difference as there is no Arithmetic Method in measuring the Rate of Growth.
F. Using the results obtained in D, estimate the midyear population in 2025.
- Pt = 109581085(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)(𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟐)(𝟔)= 124,993,533
G. When will the population double in size if the population grows at a rate determined in D?
𝐥𝐧⁡(𝟐)
- t*= 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟐 = 31.51 or in approx. 32 years, year 2051
H. Assume that the current resources of the country can support no more than 100,000,000 people,
above which, it will face severe economic crisis. If its current rate of growth will be maintained, in
what year should the people expect such crisis to start?
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝐥𝐧
𝟏𝟎𝟗,𝟓𝟖𝟏,𝟎𝟖𝟓
- t= 𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟐
= -4.16 years
- If the current population of 2019 is 109,581,085 and the current resources of the country can
support no more than 100, 000, 000 people, then it should be expected on approximately 4 past
years.
Part V.
The City of Manila reported a population of 1,863,615 in 2018.
A. If the city has been growing at a rate of 2.6%, what was its population in 2010? Use the
exponential method.
𝟏𝟖𝟔𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟓
- Po=𝟐.𝟕𝟏(𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟔)(𝟖) = 1,514,602
B. If the head of the city population program wishes the population size to be 2,000,000 in 2020,
what rate of growth should the program head aim for?
𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝐥𝐧⁡
𝟏𝟖𝟔𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟓
- r= 𝟐
= 0.0353 or 3.53%

Part VI.
If the sex ratio of a province is equal to 96, what is the proportion of females in the population?
- There are 96 Males for every 100 Females

Part VII.
Interpret the meaning of the following demographic measures:
A. Age dependency ratio = 105
- There are 105 dependent individuals that need to be supported by every 100 people in the
population.
B. Sex ratio = 92
- There are 92 Males for every 100 Females in the Population.
C. Median age = 16.5 years
- The Median age of 16.5 years has greater number of young people than the old age group.

Part VIII.

Table 3. Population Distribution by Broad Age Groups, Philippines, 2018

AGE IN YEARS MALES FEMALES TOTAL
0-14 17,870,983 17,151,096 35,022,079
15-24 10,360,704 9,934,798 20,295,502
25-54 19,987,460 19,312,673 39,300,133
55-64 2,932,572 3,462,832 6,395,404
65+ 2,001,964 2,878,299 4,880,263
TOTAL 53,153,683 52,739,698 105,893,381

Table 4. Population Distribution by Broad Age Groups, Philippines, 2019

AGE IN YEARS MALES FEMALES TOTAL

0-14 16,874,956 16,046,139 32,921,095

15-24 10,599,414 9,967,814 20,567,228

25-54 21,338,944 21,070,987 42,409,931

55-64 3,690,633 3,952,476 7,643,109
65+ 2,524,878 3,514,844 6,039,722
TOTAL 55,028,825 54,552,260 109,581,085

A. Compute for the following:

1. Absolute increase in population size between 2018 and 2019.
𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟖𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟓−𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟏
- b= = 3,687,704
𝟏
 2. Average absolute increase in population size between 2018 and 2019.
𝟑,𝟔𝟖𝟕,𝟕𝟎𝟒
- Average Absolute Increase = 𝟐𝟏𝟓𝟒𝟕𝟒𝟒𝟔𝟔 X 100 = 1.71%

3. Relative increase in population size between 2018 and 2019.

𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟖𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟓−𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟏
- RI = 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟏
x 100 = 0.0348 or 3.48%
B. If there were 1,714,622 live births and 436,338 deaths in the Philippines in 2018, what was the rate
of natural increase in the Philippines for 2018?
𝟏𝟕𝟏𝟒𝟔𝟐𝟐
- CBR = 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟏 X 1000 = 16.1919
𝟒𝟑𝟔𝟑𝟑𝟖
- CDR = 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑𝟑𝟖𝟏 X1000 = 4.1205
- CBR – CDR = 16.1919 – 4.1205 = 12.07 per 1000
C. Assuming the age and sex composition of the Philippines remains the same, compute for
the following:
1. Sex ratio in 2025
Male: Female:
𝟓𝟓,𝟎𝟐𝟖,𝟖𝟐𝟓 𝟓𝟒,𝟓𝟓𝟐,𝟐𝟔𝟎
𝒍𝒏 𝒍𝒏
𝟓𝟑,𝟏𝟓𝟑,𝟔𝟖𝟑 𝟓𝟐,𝟕𝟑𝟗,𝟔𝟗𝟖
r= 𝟏
= 0.035 or 3.5% r= 𝟏
= 0.034 or 34%
Pt= 55,028,825(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)(𝟎.𝟎𝟑𝟓)(𝟔) Pt= 54,552,260(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)(𝟎.𝟎𝟑𝟒)(𝟔)
=67,844,366 Males in 2025 =66,855,707 Females in 2025
67,844,366
- SR= 66,855,707 X 100 = 101
2. Number of females in 2025
- = 66,855,707
3. Age dependency ratio in 2025
𝟑𝟐,𝟗𝟐𝟏,𝟎𝟗𝟓
𝒍𝒏
𝟑𝟓,𝟎𝟐𝟐,𝟎𝟕𝟗
r of age 0-14 = 𝟏
= -0.062 or -6.2%
(−𝟎.𝟎𝟔𝟐)(𝟔)
Pt= 32,921,095(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)
= 22,720,072 people 0-14 years of age
𝟔,𝟎𝟑𝟗,𝟕𝟐𝟐
𝒍𝒏
𝟒,𝟖𝟖𝟎,𝟐𝟔𝟑
r of age ≥65= 𝟏
= 0.2132 or 21.32%
(𝟎.𝟐𝟏𝟑𝟐)(𝟔)
Pt= 6,039,722(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)
= 21,620,775 people ≥65 years of age
𝟕𝟎,𝟔𝟐𝟎,𝟐𝟔𝟖
𝒍𝒏
𝟔𝟓,𝟗𝟗𝟏,𝟎𝟑𝟗
r of age 15-64= = 0.068 or 6.8%
𝟏
(𝟎.𝟎𝟔𝟖)(𝟔)
Pt= 70,620,268(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)
= 106,067,134 people 15-64 years of age
22,720,072−⁡21,620,775⁡
- ADR = 106,067,134
X 100 = 1.036 dependents need to be supported by every 100
people in the population of 2025
D. If the population control program of the country aims to delay the doubling time of the population
to 60 years, what rate of growth should the program officials target to achieve this?
𝟐𝟏𝟗𝟏𝟔𝟐𝟏𝟕𝟎
𝒍𝒏
𝟏𝟎𝟗,𝟓𝟖𝟏,𝟎𝟖𝟓
- r= = 0.012 or 1.2%
𝟔𝟎

Part IX.
Consider a community which had 5,800 people in 2015. Assuming an exponential growth rate of 2.8%,
what would be the population of the community by the year 2025?
- Pt= 5800(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏)(𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟖)(𝟏𝟎) = 7,668 people